LIBYA STORM AND FLOODING 2023 RAPID DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT JANUARY 2024 LIBYA STORM AND FLOODING 2023 RAPID DAMAGE AND NEEDS ASSESSMENT JANUARY 2024 4  © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: +1-202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org Some rights reserved. This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, processes, or conclusions set forth. 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The assessment was produced in a quick timeframe to provide a rapid estimate and analysis of the impacts and needs arising out of the September 2023 storm and flooding in Libya. Extensive efforts were made to improve the accuracy of the information that was collected and analyzed, and to use publicly available ground-based data where feasible. The report uses the exchange rate US$1 = Libyan Dinar (LYD) 4.805. 6  TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms ........................................................ 10 Acknowledgments............................................................................ 13 Foreword..............................................................................................15 Executive Summary......................................................................... 16 Context......................................................................................................... 18 Objectives and Scope of the RDNA............................................................ 19 Key Findings of the RDNA........................................................................... 21 Distribution of Overall Effects and Needs...............................................................21 Macroeconomic Impact...............................................................................................23 Social, Human, and Poverty Impact..........................................................................24 Forward Look.............................................................................................. 25 Introduction....................................................................................... 26 The Climate, Disaster, and Conflict Nexus in Libya.................................. 27 RDNA Objectives, Methodology, and Scope.............................................. 30 Temporal Scope............................................................................................................30 Geographic scope.........................................................................................................30 Sectoral scope..............................................................................................................31 Methodology..................................................................................................................31 Limitations and Key Challenges ................................................................................ 31 Macroeconomic and Human Impact........................................................... 32 Macroeconomic Impact...............................................................................................32 Social, Human, and Poverty Impact..........................................................................36 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings............................................. 38 Social Sectors.............................................................................................. 39 Productive Sectors...................................................................................... 42 Infrastructure Sectors................................................................................44 Cross-Cutting Sectors................................................................................. 47 Summary of Sectors Recovery Strategies................................................ 50  7 Forward Look: International Good Practices, Lessons Learnt and Options for Disaster Recovery Implementation................. 55 Detailed Sector Assessments.........................................................60 Social Sectors.............................................................................................. 61 Housing...........................................................................................................................62 Education........................................................................................................................73 Health..............................................................................................................................78 Poverty...........................................................................................................................88 Social Protection and Jobs.........................................................................................96 Cultural Heritage........................................................................................................102 Productive Sectors ....................................................................................111 Agriculture................................................................................................................... 112 Financial Sector..........................................................................................................120 Infrastructure Sectors ............................................................................. 125 Energy...........................................................................................................................126 Transport......................................................................................................................135 Telecommunications and Digital Development ....................................................144 Water and Sanitation, and Water Resource Management .................................150 Municipal Services.....................................................................................................163 Cross-Cutting Sectors............................................................................... 169 Governance and Public Institutions.........................................................................170 Environment ...............................................................................................................180 Disaster and Climate Risk Management................................................................191 Social Sustainability and Inclusion..........................................................................200 Impact on Women and Men......................................................................................203 8  List of Tables Table 1: Summary of Total Effects and Needs ...................................................................................................... 22 Table 2: GDP Loss by District (Relative variation vis-à-vis the business-as-usual scenario) .............. 35 Table 3: Housing Damage by Municipality .............................................................................................................. 65 Table 4: Housing Damage Costs ................................................................................................................................. 66 Table 5: Housing Economic Loss ................................................................................................................................ 67 Table 6: Housing Damage Costs ................................................................................................................................. 67 Table 7: Housing Recovery Needs .............................................................................................................................. 69 Table 8: Sequencing Housing Recovery Investment ........................................................................................... 71 Table 9: Damage and Loss Inventory ........................................................................................................................ 74 Table 10: Damages and Losses by Municipality ................................................................................................... 75 Table 11: Costing of Reconstruction for Schools .................................................................................................. 77 Table 12: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction ...................................................... 77 Table 13: Damage and Loss Inventory ...................................................................................................................... 80 Table 14: Damages and Losses by Municipality ................................................................................................... 81 Table 15: Health Sector Costs ...................................................................................................................................... 84 Table 16: Total Cost of Needs for Health by and Municipality (in US$ million) ........................................... 85 Table 17: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Health Sector Reconstruction ........................ 86 Table 18: SPJ Damage Inventory Table ..................................................................................................................... 98 Table 19: SPJ Damages by Municipality ................................................................................................................... 98 Table 20: Damage and Losses by Municipality ................................................................................................... 106 Table 21: Cultural Heritage Restoration Costs .................................................................................................... 107 Table 22: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction of Cultural Heritage ........... 108 Table 23: Agriculture Damage and Loss Inventory .......................................................................................... 114 Table 24: Agriculture Damages and Losses by Municipality .......................................................................... 115 Table 25: Total Cost of Livestock and Crop Recovery ....................................................................................... 117 Table 26: Total Cost of Needs by Municipality for Agriculture ....................................................................... 118 Table 27: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Agricultural Recovery ....................................... 119 Table 28: Damage and Loss Inventory for Banks ............................................................................................... 121 Table 29: Damage and Losses by Municipality ................................................................................................... 121 Table 30: Total Cost of Banking Sector Needs ..................................................................................................... 122 Table 31: Total Cost of Needs by Municipality ...................................................................................................... 123 Table 32: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Banking Sector Reconstruction .................... 123 Table 33: Damage and Loss in the Energy Sector ............................................................................................. 129 Table 34: Damages and Losses by Municipality in the Energy Sector ....................................................... 129 Table 35 : Total Cost of Needs in the Energy Sector .......................................................................................... 131 Table 36: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction Needs ..................................... 131 Table 37: Libya East Region’s Power Generation Capacity ............................................................................. 132 Table 38: Total Cost of Needs by Municipality ...................................................................................................... 133 Table 39: Damage and Loss Inventory for Transport Infrastructure .......................................................... 138 Table 40: Damages and Losses by Municipality ................................................................................................. 139 Table 41: Total Cost of Needs ..................................................................................................................................... 142 Table 42: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Transport Reconstruction ............................... 143 Table 43: Damage and Loss - Telecommunications .......................................................................................... 146 Table 44: Telecommunications Damage and Loss by Municipality ............................................................. 147 Table 45: Telecommunications Cost by Municipality ........................................................................................ 148 Table 46: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction - Telecommunications ...... 148 Table 47: Damage and Loss Inventory for Water and Sanitation ................................................................. 152 Table 48: Average Damages and Losses by Municipality – Water and Sanitation ................................. 152 Table 49: Asset Costs – Water and Sanitation ..................................................................................................... 159 Table 50: Costs by Municipality – Water and Sanitation .................................................................................. 160 Table 51: Matrix of Short-Term and Medium- Term Needs – Water and Sanitation .............................. 161 Table 52: Damage Assessment of Municipal Assets ........................................................................................ 164 Table 53: Damage Cost by Municipal Assets ....................................................................................................... 165 Table 54: Damage Cost per Municipality for Municipal Services ................................................................. 165 Table 55: Total Recovery Investment Needs for Municipal Services .......................................................... 167 Table 56: Sequencing Recovery Investments for Municipal Services ........................................................ 167 Table 57: Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Data - January– December 2022 .................................................. 171 Table 58: Damage and Losses to Public Institutions ........................................................................................ 172 Table 59: Damages and Losses to Public Institutions by Municipality ....................................................... 173 Table 60: Reconstruction Costs ................................................................................................................................ 175 Table 61: Costs of Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction ................................... 176 Table 62: Environmental Damages and Losses ................................................................................................. 185 Table 63: Environmental Restoration Costs ......................................................................................................... 188  9 Table 64: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Environmental Restoration ............................ 189 Table 65: Maximum of Daily Maximum, Annual, Mean ..................................................................................... 193 Table 66: Precipitation Percent Change, Annual ................................................................................................ 193 Table 67: Changes in Flood Return Level .............................................................................................................. 193 Table 68: Operational Weather and Climate Stations in the East Prior to the 2023 Floods ............... 196 Table 69: Total Cost of Needs ..................................................................................................................................... 197 Table 70: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction ................................................... 198 List of Figures Figure 1: Flood Intensity in the City of Derna..............................................................................................................18 Figure 2: Abu Mansour Dam.............................................................................................................................................19 Figure 3: Damages and Losses by Sector ($USM)....................................................................................................21 Figure 4: Damages and Losses at the Municipality Level (US$ M).....................................................................23 Figure 5: Total Reconstruction and Recovery Needs by Sectors (US$M).........................................................23 Figure 6: Flooding Intensity in the City of Derna........................................................................................................28 Figure 7: Flood–Prone Areas in Northeastern Libya.............................................................................................. 29 Figure 8: Derna City Following the Floods (13SEP2023)........................................................................................32 Figure 9: Total Damages and Losses by Municipality............................................................................................. 33 Figure 10: GDP Impacts in 2023 and Projections 2024–2025.............................................................................. 33 Figure 11: Possible Inflationary Pressures on the Libyan Economy, 2023–2025......................................... 33 Figure 12: Potential Reductions in Household Consumption, 2023–2025....................................................... 34 Figure 13: Sectoral Impacts of Floods, 2023–2025................................................................................................. 34 Figure 14: Contribution to GDP of Damage-affected Regions.............................................................................. 34 Figure 15: Sectoral GDP contributions......................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 16: Flooding Intensity in the City of Soussa.................................................................................................. 63 Figure 17: Housing Damage in the City of Soussa................................................................................................... 64 Figure 18: Quartile of Average Relative Wealth Per District................................................................................. 88 Figure 19: Average Monthly HH Income Per Capita (LDY)..................................................................................... 89 Figure 20: Food Consumer Price Index (2015=100)................................................................................................. 90 Figure 21: Average Distance to a School (left) and Health Facility (right) by a Motorized Vehicle (in minutes)..............................................................................................................................................................91 Figure 22: Unemployment Rate (%) Across Districts (left) and Sectoral Share (%) of Workers (right)......92 Figure 23: Share of District Under Cropland (%, Left) and in 1km Grids of Flood-Affected Areas (%, Right)..................................................................................................................................................................... 93 Figure 24: Distribution of Women by Education (%)................................................................................................ 93 Figure 25: Share of Women who Believe Gender-Based Violence (Women and Men) is Common in Libya..................................................................................................................................................... 94 Figure 26: Top Priorities for Libyan Women (%).........................................................................................................94 Figure 27: SPJ Buildings and Services in Impacted Municipalities................................................................... 97 Figure 28: Status of 25 SPJ Buildings........................................................................................................................... 98 Figure 29: Short Term Needs (0–12 months)........................................................................................................... 100 Figure 30: Medium Term Needs (13–24 months).................................................................................................... 101 Figure 31: Damage and Loss Inventory Table.......................................................................................................... 104 Figure 32: Damage by Municipality............................................................................................................................. 104 Figure 33: Damage to Cultural Assets in the city of Shahhat ........................................................................... 105 Figure 34: Agriculture Land and Flooding Impact in Northeast Libya ...........................................................114 Figure 35: Libya’s Power Generation Assets........................................................................................................... 127 Figure 36: Libya’s Electricity Transmission System............................................................................................. 127 Figure 37: Average Night-Time Brightness in Derna Before and After the Floods.................................... 128 Figure 38: Road, Bridge and Housing Damage in the City of Derna................................................................ 136 Figure 39: Damaged Radio Towers and Baseline................................................................................................... 146 Figure 40: Damage to Radio Towers as of October 2023*................................................................................... 146 Figure 41: Damage and Loss by Asset Type (high estimates) - Water and Sanitation.............................. 151 Figure 42: Total Damage and Loss by Municipality – Water and Sanitation................................................. 153 Figure 43: Landscape Context of Derna Floods, September 10, 2023........................................................... 155 Figure 44: Al Belad (Derna) Dam, Prior (Left) and Post (Right) Flood ............................................................ 156 Figure 45: Bou Mansour Dam Prior (Left) and Post (Right) Flood ................................................................... 157 Figure 46: Worldwide Governance Indicators: Libya (2012, 2017 and 2022)................................................ 170 Figure 47: Fishing Routes Possibly Impacted by Suspended Matter Discharging into the Sea............ 184 Figure 48: Historically Flood Prone Areas ............................................................................................................... 191 Figure 49: Overlay of 2023 flooded Areas and Historically Prone Areas ..................................................... 195 10 Abbreviations and Acronyms ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AWS  Automatic Weather Stations  BBB  Building Back Better  BER  Budget Execution Reports  BPD  Barrels Per Day  BRT  Bus Rapid Transport  CBL   Central Bank of Libya   C&D  Construction & Demolition  CGE  Computable General Equilibrium  CoA  Charter of Account  CPI  Consumer Price Index  CRI  Core Relief items  CSO  Civil Society Organization   DCIM  Department to Combat Illegal Migration  DHS  Demographic and Health Survey  DHIS-2  District Health Information System-2  DOA  Department of Antiquities  DRR  Disaster Risk Reduction  DRM  Disaster Risk Management  DSL  Digital Subscriber Line  ECT  Emergency Cash Transfer  EIA  Environmental Impact Assessment  EU   European Union   EWARN  Early Warning Alert and Response Network  EWS  Early Warning Systems  FCS  Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations  FTTP  Fiber To the Premises  GACI  General Authority for Communication and Informatics  GAI  General Authority for Information  GCWW  General Company for Water and Wastewater  GDP  Gross Domestic Product  GECOL  General Electricity Company of Libya  GEMS  Geo-Enabling method for Monitoring and Supervision  GFDRR  Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery  GHG  Green House Gas  GNS   Government of National Stability   GNU   Government of National Unity  Abbreviations and Acronyms 11 GPP  Green Public Procurement  GSMA  Global System for Mobile Communications Association  GTA  General Telecommunications Authority  G2B  Government To Business  G2G  Government to Government  G2P  Government to Person  GWWC  General company for water and wastewater  HDI  Human Development Index  HI  Humanity and Inclusion  HoR   House of Representatives    ICT  Information and Communications Technology  IDP  Internally Displaced Persons  IGFT  intergovernmental fiscal transfers  IOM  International Organization for Migration  IPCC  Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change  IRC  International Rescue Committee  ISSAI  International Standards of Supreme Audit Institutions  IXP  Internet Exchange Point  LAB  Libyan Audit Bureau  LFP  Labor Force Participation  LNA   Libya National Army   LNMC  Libya National Meteorological Center  LPI  Logistics Performance Index  LPTIC  Libyan Post, Telecommunication, and Information Technology Company  LTE  Long-Term Evolution  LTT  Libya Telecom & Technology  LYD  Libyan Dinar  MCM  Million Cubic Mete  M&E  Monitoring and Evaluation  MEB  Monthly Expenditure Basket  MENA  Middle East and North Africa  MIC  Middle-Income Country  MICS  Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey  MHPSS  Mental Health and Psychosocial Support Services  MMR  Man-Made River Project  MoAL  Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock  MoE  Ministry of Environment  MoF   Ministry of Finance   MoLG   Ministry of Local Governance   MoL  Ministry of Labor  MoP  Ministry of Planning  MOSA  Ministry of Social Affairs  MOT  Million Tons  MSW  Municipal Solid Waste  12 Abbreviations and Acronyms MtCO2e  Metric Tons of carbon dioxide equivalent  MVNO  Mobile Virtual Network Operator  NCAH  National Centre of Animal Health  NCD  Non-Communicable Diseases  NDC  Nationally Determined Contribution  NFI  Non-Food items  OCHA  Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs  ODAC  Organization for the development of administrative center’s authority  O&G  Oil and Gas  PAI  Publicly Available Information  PDNA  Post Disaster Needs Assessment  PD-PFM  Post-Disaster Public Financial Management  PFM  Public Financial Management  PHC  Primary Health Care  PPP  Public-Private Partnership  RBA  Road and Bridge Authority  RCO  Resident Coordinator’s Office   RDNA   Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment   REAOL  Renewable Energy Authority of Libya  RRA  Risk and Resilience Assessment   RWI  Relative Wealth Index  SBA  Settlement-based Assessment  SDIP  Strategic Development and Investment Plans  SOP  Standard Operational Procedures  SPF  State and Peacebuilding Fund  SPJ  Social Protection and Jobs  SSA  Social Security Administration  SSF  Social Solidarity Fund  TPM  Third-Party Monitoring  TSA  Treasury Single Account  UN  United Nations  UNDP   United Nations Development Programme   UNESCO  United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization  UNHCR  United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees  UNSDCF  United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework  UNSMIL  United Nations Special Mission in Libya  VOC  Vehicle Operating Costs  WASH  Water, Sanitation and Hygiene  WB  The World Bank  WFP  World Food Programme  WHO  World Health Organization  WGI  Worldwide Governance Indicators  Acknowledgments 13 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment for Libya was jointly conducted by the World Bank Group, the United Nations, and the European Union, in the aftermath of the devastating floods that struck Eastern Libya on September 10 and 11, 2023. The RDNA team would like to express its deep appreciation to all individuals and organizations who contributed to this assessment. From the World Bank: The team from the World Bank side was led by Ayaz Parvez (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist) and Dina Ranarifidy (Senior Urban Specialist), under the guidance from Jesko Hentschel (World Bank Country Director for the Maghreb region), Henriette von Kaltenborn Stachau (World Bank Resident Representative, Libya), and Catherine Signe Tovey (Urban, Resilience and Land Practice Manager, Middle East and North Africa). The core overall report writing and coordinating team included Ghizlane Aqariden (Consultant), Mahi El Attar (Operations Officer), Jemma Vasilyan (Operations Analyst), Fares Salem (Consultant), Sara Boughedir (Consultant), Lucile Gingembre (Consultant), Theresa Abrassart (Consultant), Hend Irhiam (Operations Officer), Haythem Belghrissi (Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Abdulrahman Elgheriani (consultant), and Marc Cortadellas Mancini (Consultant). Anissa Selmi (Program Assistant), and Priyantha Jayasuriya Arachchi (Program Assistant) provided administrative support. Sector analysis and chapters specialists included: • Agriculture: Yosra Bouaziz, Matthias Mollet • Climate and Disaster Risk Management: Lucile Gingembre • Climate Change: Katharina Ziegler, Adeel Abbas Syed • Cultural Heritage: Ban Edilbi • Digital Development: Younes Errati, Issam Khayat, and Dolele Sylla • Education: Himdat Bayusuf, Fatine Guedira • Energy: Victor Loksha and Mohammed Qaradaghi • Environment: Andrea Kutter • Finance: Safia Hachicha, Dobromir Christow, and Dorothee Delort • Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) and displacement: Joy Aoun, Miguel Angel De Corral Martin, Matthew Ryan Brubacher • Governance: Winston Percy Onipede Cole and Mahi ElAttar • Health: Katriel Friedman, Yu Shibui, and Mohini Kak • Housing: Alexandra Le Courtois and Narayanan Edadan • Macroeconomic Impact: Mohamed Hedi Bchir, and James Liounis • Municipal Services: Dina Ranarifidy, Haythem Belghrissi, Othman Khaled, and Narayan Edadan • Poverty: Federica Marzo, and Nayantara Sarma • Social Protection and Jobs: Sara Hariz, Eric Zapatero Larrio, and Rania Atieh • Social Sustainability & Inclusion: Marcelo Jorge Fabre, and Souad Adnane • Transport: Hakim Al-Aghbari, and Susan Lim • Water and Sanitation and Water Resources Management: Iyad Rammal, Marcus J. Wishart, and Floris Dalemans • Women and Men: Luciana De la Flor Giuffra, Cindy J. Suh, and Majda Benzidia The team received valuable comments and inputs from Karima Ben Bih (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Elif Ayhan (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Estelle Allano and Elena Segura. 14 Acknowledgments The RDNA was prepared in coordination and consultation with UN agencies and EU partners, and the authors would like to thank the following EU and UN for their invaluable guidance and support in providing key complementary data and analysis: From the UN: Jesse Forsythe (UN RCO), Naeun Choi (UN RCO), Naserddin Dekakni (UN RCO), Aadil Mansoor (UNDP), Christopher Laker (UNDP), Sophie Kemkhadze (UNDP), Nouri Alkishriwi (UNDP), Renda Gritili (UNDP), Anne Dalitz (UNDP), Joana Sampainho (UNDP), Erkinbek Kasybekov (UNDP), Nouralddeen Alhouni (UNDP), Dr. Nouri Alkishriwi (UNDP), Randa Gritli (UNDP), Hala Khudari (WHO), Michele Servadei (UNICEF), Vanesa Lee (UNICEF), Abdoulaye Fall (UNICEF), Mark Buttle (UNICEF), Joelle Zeitouny (FAO), Daniele Barelli (FAO), Helene Sow (FAO), Soufien Sghaier (FAO), Iris Monnereau (FAO), Cherif Toueilib (FAO), Heba Fekry (UN-Habitat), Zichao Yan (UNESCO), Maissa Acheuk-Youcef (UNESCO), and May Shaer (UNESCO). From the EU: Vicente Selles, Dominique Blariaux, Thomas Hockley, Federica Petrucci, Marton Benedek, Matthias Mollet, the Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS), and its Recovery Observatory team, EU Copernicus. Technical support for the assessment of the failures of the Bou Mansour and the Derna dams was provided through collaboration with the Embassy of the Netherlands to Libya, including Manon van de Schootbrugge, the Netherlands Enterprise Agency, including Sandra Cats and Gertjan van der Ende, and an expert team led by Rob Steijn (Director, Arcadis) and including Laurent Mouvet (Dam Safety, ICOLD), Werner Halter (Dam Safety, Fugro), Bas Agerbeek (Hydrologist), Michelle Rudolph (Communications, HKV), Antonio Moreno- Rodenas (Remote Sensing Hydraulics, Deltares), Lukas Oosterbaan (Flow Modelling, Arcadis), and Ayoub Elsheikh (Engineer, Arcadis). The translation of the report was provided by MS Translation and Media Services. The team is also grateful for the design and editorial efforts provided by Sarah Alameddine. Finally, the team is thankful for the generous financial and technical support from the World Bank’s Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) and the State and Peacebuilding Fund. The State and Peacebuilding Umbrella Trust Fund (SPF) is a global multi-donor fund administered by the World Bank that works with partners to address the drivers and impacts of fragility, conflict, and violence and strengthen the resilience of countries and affected populations, communities, and institutions. SPF is kindly supported by Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, and IBRD. Foreword 15 FOREWORD The Libya Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA) is an assessment report jointly developed by the World Bank (WB), the United Nations (UN), and the European Union (EU), in cooperation with other development partners, in the aftermath of the devastating storm and floods that affected eastern Libya between September 10 to 11, 2023. This report is an endeavor to stand by the Libyan people in this grave hour of need, and to support the efficient, sustainable, and resilient recovery of the disaster-affected region. The report constitutes an independent, impartial, and systematic assessment of the impacts of the disaster and the associated disaster recovery needs in the short to medium term. The RDNA provides a comprehensive analysis of sectoral damages, economic losses, and recovery needs arising out of the disaster, estimated through various remote-sensing based data acquisition and triangulation tools, corroborated through ground information where possible. The RDNA follows a globally established and recognized damage, loss, and needs assessment methodology developed by the WB, the UN, and the EC. This methodology has been applied globally in numerous post-disaster and conflict contexts to assess damages, losses and needs towards informing recovery and reconstruction planning. The report was produced in quick time to provide a rapid estimate of the impacts and needs arising out of the storm and flooding events. The RDNA process was challenged by the scarcity of reliable ground damage data which was overcome by the extensive use of various remote data collection means and technology. Despite these challenges, we are pleased that the RDNA team has been able to provide a robust analysis of disaster- induced damages, losses and needs across nearly all sectors of the economy, informed by various cross- cutting themes relevant to the Libyan context. Substantial efforts were deployed to enhance the accuracy of the gathered data using publicly available ground-based data for triangulation and consultations with partners. The RDNA report has been rigorously reviewed by various global experts and partner agencies on the ground, to enhance the relevance and reliability of its findings and its usefulness towards informing the design, planning and implementation of a coherent and coordinated multi-sector recovery program - in line with global good practices and lessons learnt from disaster recovery in similar country contexts. While all efforts have been made to improve the accuracy and reliability of the results of the assessment, it does not constitute a substitute for more comprehensive and localized ground damage surveys during the recovery planning and implementation phases. The delivery of this comprehensive RDNA report in a relatively short period of time is a testament to the continued commitment and support of international and national development partners towards all people in Libya in overcoming the impacts of this large-scale disaster. We hope that this report will help Libyan stakeholders move towards conceiving, planning, and implementing an efficient and effective recovery program through a coordinated national platform. Libya can come out of this disaster, stronger and more resilient, by converting adversity into an opportunity for building back better and contributing towards the sustainable development of the regions affected by this disaster, and beyond.  16 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY © Mahir Alawami/Shutterstock.com Executive Summary 17 KEY FACTS KEY FINDINGS 1.0 DAMAGES US$ billion OBJECTIVES 0.6 LOSSES US$ billion • Assess the impact of the flooding on physical assets, infrastructure, and service delivery. • Conduct a preliminary estimate of infrastructure reconstruction and service delivery restoration 1.8 NEEDS US$ billion needs in the short- and medium-term. • Inform the Libyan stakeholders and the international community of the impact of the disaster. SCOPE GEOGRAPHIC SCOPE The RDNA covers 20 municipalities with an in-depth  METHODOLOGY analysis in 5 cities. • 20 Municipalities: Derna, Al Abraq, Soussa, Al Bayda, Al Marj, Sahel Al Jabal, Shahaat, Jardas Al The RDNA assesses (i) damage to physical assets; Abid, Medouar Al Zetoun, Al Qayqab, Ra’s Al Hilal, (ii) economic losses; and (iii) reconstruction and Wardam, Umar Al Mukhtar, Toukara, Benghazi, recovery needs. The quantitative results and Gemienis, Suloug, Umm Arazam, Al Qubah, Al Abyar. qualitative analysis of all three were aggregated • 5 Cities: Derna, Soussa, Al Bayda, Al Marj, Shahhat. and used to assess the overall macroeconomic and human impacts. The RDNA relies largely on remotely collected data, with ground corroboration where possible. The RDNA relies on remote data sources which include SECTORAL SCOPE 50 cm resolution satellite imagery, (social) media analytics, anonymized cellphone data, night lights The RDNA covers macroeconomic and socioeconomic data, publicly available information, as well as limited impacts, 12 sectors, and 7 cross-cutting areas. ground corroboration and consultations with partners to improve the veracity of the data. • Social sectors: Housing, Education, Health, Poverty, Social Protection and Jobs, and Cultural Heritage The RDNA adapts from the Post-Disaster Needs • Infrastructure Sectors: Water and Sanitation and Assessment (PDNA) methodology jointly developed Water Resource Management, Transport, Power, by the European Union, the World Bank Group, and Municipal Services, and Digital Development and the United Nations. Damages are estimated as the ICT. replacement value of totally or partially damaged physical assets; losses are estimated from the • Productive sectors: Agriculture and Irrigation, disruptions to the economy that arise from the Finance, Commerce, Industry and Markets temporary absence of the damaged assets; and • Cross-cutting sectors: Governance, Impact reconstruction and recovery needs are comprised of on Men & Women, Environment and Natural rebuilding infrastructure and restoring service delivery Resources, Fragility, Conflict & Displacement, and are costed in the immediate and short-term. Social Sustainability and Inclusion, Climate Change, Disaster Risk Management. 18 Executive Summary CONTEXT On Sunday, September 10 2023, Storm Daniel hit millions of cubic meters of water, which inundated the the eastern coastal zones of Libya wreaking havoc river plain and flooded Derna, a city of approximately with heavy rains and fierce winds. The storm 120,000 people. According to the United Nations’ initially affected coastal cities in the northeast, Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance including Benghazi, Soussa, and Toukara. However, (OCHA) update of November 28th, 2023, 250,000 the most catastrophic event occurred during the people (about one third children) have been affected night of Sunday, September 10, and the morning by the disaster and need humanitarian assistance. of September 11, when two dams upstream of the Of these 44,800 are internally displaced, 4,352 are coastal city of Derna, situated on the Wadi Darnah deceased and over 8,000 are still missing. River, tragically failed. This led to the release of Figure 1: Flood Intensity in the City of Derna Source: Assessment team.1 1 In this RDNA, the term “Assessment team” refers to the collaborative efforts of the World Bank (WB), the United Nations (UN), and the European Union (EU). Executive Summary 19 The 2023 storm and floods constitute a climatic Soon after this tragic disaster, the World Bank, and environmental catastrophe for Libya. Climate with support from the United Nations, and the change has made floods up to 50 times more likely, European Union, launched a Rapid Damage and and up to 50 percent more intense compared Needs Assessment (RDNA). This RDNA follows a to a 1.2°C cooler climate2. The abnormally high globally established and recognized damage, loss, rainfall and collapse of Derna’s dams created an and needs assessment methodology developed unprecedented disaster and flooded many areas by the World Bank (WB), the European Union (EU), which had not been historically at risk. The disaster and the United Nations (UN). This methodology has hit coastal cities, including Derna, Benghazi, and been applied globally in post-disaster and conflict Soussa, and also inland, affecting cities such as contexts to quantify damages and losses, and to Al Bayda, Al-Marj and Shahhat. Approximately 22 guide recovery and reconstruction. percent of Libya’s population, or 1.5 million people, live in the flood-affected districts, with some located The substantial damages and losses from the in particularly risk-prone areas, making them more floods amounted to US$ 1.7 billion, approximately vulnerable to the effects of the disaster. Finally, the 3.6 percent of Libya’s GDP in 2022. The RDNA’s disaster severely affected an area rich in natural impact assessment shows that the impact wasn’t resources and ecosystem services, impacting uniform across the regions and sectors. The coastal ecosystems, forests and woodlands, and municipalities of Al Bayda, Benghazi, Derna, agricultural lands. Shahaat, and Soussa emerged as the hardest- hit areas, collectively bearing a staggering 85 percent of damages and losses (Figure 4). This concentration highlights the localized severity of the storm’s impact, emphasizing the urgent need for targeted recovery efforts in these regions. Figure 2: Abu Mansour Dam BEFORE AFTER Source: World Bank/Ipsos. 2 This exceptional weather event is estimated to hit northern Libya once every 643 years. In a hypothetical, 1.2oC cooler world, this would be an even rarer event with a return period of 1900 years. (Source: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/ bitstream/10044/1/106501/14/scientific%20report%20-%20Mediterranean%20floods.pdf ). 20 Executive Summary OBJECTIVES AND SCOPE OF THE RDNA The objective of the RDNA is to estimate the impact strategies, it identifies and quantifies needs for of the storm and floods on physical assets and several sectors, distributed, and sequenced across service delivery in the most affected areas and the short-term (0–12 months) and medium-term take stock of the ensuing recovery needs. The (1–3 years). These sectors encompass Social RDNA covers 20 municipalities and provides in- Sectors (Housing, Education, Health, Poverty, and depth analysis of the five most affected cities (Derna, Social Protection, and Jobs), Productive Sectors Soussa, Al-Bayda, Al-Marj, and Shahhat) The RDNA (Agriculture and Financial), Infrastructure Sectors employs an assessment methodology developed by (Energy, Transport, Telecommunications and Digital the WB, EU and UN that has been successfully applied Development, Water and Sanitation, and Water in numerous disaster-affected countries around the Resource Management, and Municipal Services), World. The RDNA relies largely on satellite imagery- as well as Cross-Cutting Sectors (Environment, based data, social media analytics and other means Impact on Women and Men, Governance and Public of remote data collection. Despite extensive efforts Institutions, Disaster and Climate Risk Management, to maximize the accuracy and reliability of the data and Social Sustainability and Inclusion). The RDNA collected and utilized for the RDNA, the recovery also analyses macroeconomic and socioeconomic planning and implementation phases will provide impacts of the floods to anticipate how these are an opportunity to further improve upon the RDNA affecting the population’s well-being. Although the data through more comprehensive ground damage scope of the RDNA is limited to damages, losses surveys.3 and needs caused by the flood, the recommended recovery measures attempt to contribute to longer The RDNA provides sector specific strategies term stability and improved governance of the for green, resilient, inclusive, and sustainable disaster affected region. recovery. Based on these sector-specific 3 Although it follows a similar methodology, the RDNA is different in this regard from Post-Disaster Needs Assessments (PDNA), which constitutes more in-depth analysis, using more ground data. The RDNA uses the following definitions: damages are estimated as the replacement values of totally, partially, or minimally damaged physical assets; losses are estimated from the disruptions to the economy that arise from the temporary absence of the damaged assets; and reconstruction and recovery needs are comprised of rebuilding infrastructure and restoring service delivery. Executive Summary 21 KEY FINDINGS OF THE RDNA Distribution of Overall Effects and Needs Physical damage and losses caused by the Libya (10 percent); and Water and Sanitation with US$ 157 storm and flood are estimated at US$ 1.03 billion million (9 percent). The graph below (Figure 3) shows and US$ 0.62 billion, respectively, bringing the total the distribution of total disaster effects across estimated Disaster Effects (Damages + Losses) sectors. to US$ 1.65 billion. Reconstruction and recovery needs across the 20 affected municipalities are At the municipality level, Derna suffered the most, estimated at US$ 1.8 billion, with needs in the first with damages and losses of US$ 309 million, which year estimated at US$ 0.7 billion, and needs for the accounts for 19 percent of all damages and losses. second and third years estimated at US$ 1.1 billion Benghazi followed with damages and losses of (Table 1). US$ 253 million (15 percent). Al Bayda experienced damages and losses worth US$ 206 million In terms of physical damages, Housing was the (12 percent), Soussa incurred US$ 164 million hardest hit sector, at US$ 362 million (35 percent (10 percent), and Shahaat had US$ 129 million of total damages), followed by Environment at US$ (8 percent). The remaining municipalities had a 157 million (15 percent), Transport at US$ 139 million lower share of damages and losses (Figure 4). (14 percent), and Water and Sanitation at US$ 136 million (13 percent). Total reconstruction and recovery needs are calculated at US$ 1.8 billion, with needs in the In terms of total disaster effects (damages + losses), first year estimated at US$ 0.7 billion, and for the Housing suffered the most, accounting for US$ 428 second and third years at US$ 1.1 billion. The highest million (26 percent of the total effects). The Housing estimated needs are in Housing (US$ 517 million or sector is followed by the Environment with US$ 414 30 percent), Water (US$ 234 million or 13 percent), million (25 percent); Cultural Heritage with US$ 173 and Transport (US$ 209 million or 12 percent). million (10 percent); Transport with US$ 161 million Figure 3: Damages and Losses by Sector ($USM) Finance and Markets Agriculture Social Protection and Jobs $414,25 Housing $428,26 Education Health Water and Sanitation Energy Transport Municipal Services $173,10 Governance Cultural Heritage Environment $161,10 Digital Development and ICT $157,9 Source: Assessment team. 22 Executive Summary Table 1: Summary of Total Effects and Needs Damages and Losses (US$) Needs (US$) Short Term Medium Term Total (over Sector Damages Losses Total Effect (0-1 years) (1-3 years) 0-3 years) Productive Sectors Finance and Markets 2,559,567 383,935 2,943,502 1,913,276 1,913,276 3,826,553 Agriculture 22,754,045 53,427,619 76,181,663 22,331,789 13,896,641 36,228,430 Productive Sectors 25,313,612 53,811,554 79,125,166 24,245,065 15,809,918 40,054,983 Total Social Sectors Social Protection and 374,571 - 374,571 70,293,949 41,751,281 112,045,230 Jobs Housing 361,827,331 65,800,963 427,628,294 268,097,413 249,315,670 517,413,083 Education 30,100,926 28,731,927 58,832,853 35,297,671 82,361,233 117,658,904 Health 28,269,684 68,600,097 96,869,781 56,539,368 56,539,368 113,078,736 Social Sectors Total 420,572,512 163,132,986 583,705,498 430,228,402 429,967,552 860,195,953 Infrastructure Sectors Water and Sanitation 136,470,000 20,470,500 156,940,500 22,362,726 212,263,322 234,626,048 Energy 34,000,000 40,881,058 74,881,058 66,400,000 30,900,000 97,300,000 Transport 139,615,471 20,942,321 160,557,791 62,617,539 146,107,590 208,725,129 Municipal Services 11,728,200 - 11,728,200 9,022,151 11,504,563 20,526,714 Infrastructure 321,813,671 82,293,879 404,107,549 160,402,415 400,775,475 561,177,890 Sectors Total Cross-Cutting Sectors Governance 1,190,303 357,091 1,547,394 9,250,000 13,750,000 23,000,000 Cultural Heritage 108,740,000 64,488,900 173,228,900 50,890,320 118,744,080 169,634,400 Environment 157,086,833 257,382,646 414,469,479 20,156,000 50,364,000 70,520,000 Digital Development 448,854 22,443 471,297 383,179 418,026 801,204 and ICT Disaster Risk - - - 11,690,000 15,990,000 27,680,000 Management (DRM) Cross-Cutting 267,465,990 322,251,080 589,717,069 92,369,499 199,266,106 291,635,604 Sectors Total Grand Total 1,035,165,785 621,489,498 1,656,655,283 707,245,381 1,045,819,050 1,753,064,431 Source: Assessment team. Executive Summary 23 Of the total reconstruction and recovery needs US$ 200 million (16 percent). Around 40 percent (US$ amounting to US$ 1.8 billion, approximately 70 percent 493 million) of reconstruction and recovery costs are (US$ 1.2 billion) will be needed for infrastructure. expected to be addressed in the short term, within Within infrastructure, Housing accounts for US$ 470 one year, while the remaining costs will be spread million (38 percent), Transport requires US$ 209 over the next two years following the first-year post million (17 percent), and Water and Sanitation needs disaster recovery. Macroeconomic Impact The human toll – lost lives and injuries- is losses across all sectors amounted to US$ 1.7 devastating, with potential long-term consequences billion, constituting approximately 3.6 percent of on the Libyan economy should reconstruction GDP in 2022. The minor macroeconomic impact efforts stall. Economic losses and damages and can be attributed to the location of the disaster in Figure 4: Damages and Losses at the Municipality Level (US$ M) $309 $253 $206 $164 $129 $46 $28 $19 $4 $3 $8 $6 $3 $4 $4 $11 $14 $3 $8 $13 $5 Jardas Al Abid Al Qubah Umm Arazam Umar Al Mukhtar Al Marj Medouar Al Zetoun Ra’s Al Hilal Shahaat Suloug Toukara Al Abyar Derna Benghazi Al Bayda Wardam Sahel Al Jabal Other Al Qayqab Soussa Gemienis Al Abraq Source: Assessment team. Figure 5: Total Reconstruction and Recovery Needs by Sectors (US$M) $268 $249 $212 $146 $70 $66 $119 $57 $57 $50 $42 $35 $31 $22 $82 $22 $20 $14 $12 $14 $12 $16 $63 Cultural $51 $9 $9 $0 $1 $2 $2 Finance and Markets Agriculture Social Protection and Jobs Housing Education Health Water and Sanitation Energy Transport Municipal Services Governance Heritage Environment Digital Development and ICT Disaster Risk Management (DRM) Short Term Needs (US$M) (0-1 years) Medium Term Needs (US$M) (1-3 years) Source: Assessment team. 24 Executive Summary Libya’s poorest regions and their small contribution rise in oil production bolstered industrial activity, to Libya’s GDP. First, the most affected areas, mainly which grew by 11.3 percent. Additionally, a 10 percent Al Jabal al Akhdar, Derna, and Al-Marj, account for rise in the government wage bill fueled a remarkable 75 percent of the estimated damages and loss; their 18.7 percent growth in services. However, following the contribution to Libya’s GDP is just 7 percent (Figure floods, a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model 4). Nevertheless, GDP loss could be significant, suggests a potential national 0.07 percent GDP loss in particularly in the Derna, Al Jabal Akhdar, Al Marj, 2023 due to damaged and lost capital in the affected and Benghazi districts. An analysis distributing the areas in the East. However, without a well-thought-out GDP loss proportionally to the level of damage in reconstruction, this loss could escalate to 0.23 and each district, relative to their pre-crisis GDP, shows 0.22 percent of GDP in 2024 and 2025, respectively. that Derna experiences severe economic strain, with the most substantial GDP losses: -1.1 percent in 2023, In 2023, private consumption might decrease by 0.05 followed by -3.7 percent in 2024 and 2025. Al Jabal al percent, and the Consumer Price Index (CPI) could Akhdar faces substantial setbacks, expecting a -0.8 rise by 0.03 percent. These trends may worsen in percent GDP loss in 2023, worsening to -2.5 percent 2024 and 2025, with the CPI increasing by 0.09 and in 2024 and 2025. Al Marj forecasts comparatively 0.12 percent, respectively. Household consumption smaller but still notable declines, projecting -0.3 might also suffer, decreasing by 0.16 percent in 2024 percent in 2023 and -0.9 percent in 2024 and 2025. and 0.18 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, Benghazi anticipates relatively minor reductions, with -0.1 percent in 2023 and -0.3 The flooding may lead to higher prices for goods and percent in 2024 and 2025. These impacts could be food in Al Jabal Al Akhdar and Derna districts due more pronounced at the municipal level, especially to damaged infrastructure, affecting local supply for those that the storm has directly hit. chains. The national impact on unemployment is expected to be limited, given substantial public Initial estimates indicate that while the disaster will sector employment (51% of the Libyan workforce) not have significant macroeconomic consequences and widespread dependence on public income nationally and will marginally affect the initial (around 80% of the population). However, at the growth estimation, lack of reconstruction and a local level, particularly in affected regions, the clear vision of the funding mechanisms to support impact on private employment and self-employment recovery could lead to negative growth. Prior to (approximately 5% of the population) could be more the catastrophe, Libya’s economic outlook for 2023 significant, with job loss and income reduction, appeared promising, with an expected economic especially in the agricultural sector.. growth of 14.1 percent following a negative GDP growth of -1.2 percent the previous year. A 12 percent Social, Human, and Poverty Impact 22 percent of the country’s population (1.5 million levels; they have swelled displacement, reduced food people) live in areas affected by the floods.4 Those security, increased multidimensional poverty, and in the districts of Derna, Benghazi, Al Marj, Sahel Al caused significant loss of livelihood and income. Jabal and Al Akhdar have been particularly affected. The floods occurred in a country where 11.4 per cent The disaster destroyed/damaged 18,838 houses of the population are vulnerable to multidimensional (seven percent of the housing stock). Derna poverty5, the impacts of conflict and displacement, and incurred the heaviest toll, with approximately 4,000 external shocks. The estimated number of people in houses destroyed or damaged. Other immediate need amounted to 250,000 following the floods. This consequences include reduced food security and has led to a complex humanitarian crisis, compounded less access to healthcare and education. The existing adversities, stretched already scarce internal displacement of nearly 44,800 individuals6, resources, and amplified vulnerability. The floods have including approximately 16,000 children, according deepened Libyan household challenges at multiple 4 Libyan Bureau of Statistics and Census, 2020. 5 According to data available from 2014, two percent of the Libyan population are multi-dimensionally poor, and 11.4 percent are classified as vulnerable to multidimensional poverty. UNDP. Multidimensional Poverty Index 2023. https://hdr.undp. org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/MPI/LBY.pdf 6 According to the United Nations’ Office of Coordination of Humanitarian Assistance (OCHA) update of November 28th, 2023. Executive Summary 25 to UNICEF,7 exacerbated vulnerabilities, particularly disparities. Additionally, social protection services among women, migrants, persons with disabilities, and benefits have been disrupted. These are needed and those with chronic illnesses. The floods have by affected populations, newly displaced (IDPs), disrupted economic activity and social structures and vulnerable groups (female heads of households, will produce learning setbacks for children, mental people with disabilities, etc.), and workers in the health challenges, and greater socio-economic informal economy. FORWARD LOOK The RDNA provides a solid foundation for identifying evaluation systems need to be established to track and quantifying recovery needs. It emphasizes program implementation and funding. Moreover, that post-disaster recovery goes beyond just an Legal and policy requirements are critical in assessment and requires a well-coordinated, and facilitating DRF implementation. Staffing challenges well-structured multi-sector and multi-stakeholder can be addressed by seeking additional expertise approach, to plan, manage, implement and finance and scaling up staffing. Effective communication the recovery. Government leadership, coupled with and outreach efforts are important for stakeholder collaboration with international partners, civil society, engagement. Recovery implementation requires and localized decision-making are crucial for effective a robust monitoring and evaluation system, recovery. International good practices offer lessons accountability mechanisms, data collection and on institutional arrangements, financing, policy analysis, stakeholder engagement, and rapid development, prioritization, and implementation procurement mechanisms. frameworks for coherent, coordinated, sustainable, and resilient recovery. Adopting a Disaster Recovery Finally, a successful recovery requires a financing Framework (DRF) aligned with these practices can strategy to address the identified financing gap. The support the recovery process. Prioritizing recovery strategy should consider the government’s financing activities involves inter-sectoral prioritization based commitments and constraints, as well as the limited on indicators such as humanitarian impact, pro-poor availability of development assistance and private and gender-sensitive agendas, sustainable livelihoods, capital. It should be based on the economic costs and critical infrastructure restoration. Post-disaster estimated by the RDNA, assess recovery budgets, Recovery requires assessment, planning, resource identify sources of financing, and outline coordination mobilization, capacity building, coordination, and allocation options for recovery funds. communication, monitoring, and implementation. It is important to note that a DRF is not a detailed Three institutional models can be adopted action plan for recovery. While the framework during post disaster recovery which include: (i) provides a vision, priorities, institutional options, strengthening existing institutions; (ii) establishing a implementation arrangements, and a financing new agency; (iii) or using a hybrid approach. Clarity strategy, it is necessary to develop detailed, tailored about leadership and coordination is essential and coordinated sectoral and/or area-based in any institutional arrangement. Project cycle recovery plans and programs. Libya should develop management and decision-making procedures a framework from which best practice solutions should be transparent and rapid. Multi-layered emerge, delivering catalytic and sustainable coordination mechanisms between line ministries, recovery investments to allow the country not only central and local governments, stakeholders, and to bounce back, but also to bounce forward. international partners are critical. Monitoring and 7 Yasmine Sherif, Director Education Cannot Wait (ECW) https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/more-16000-children-are- displaced%E2%80%AFfollowing-libya-floods-unicef 26 © Seraj Elhouni/Shutterstock.com INTRODUCTION Introduction 27 THE CLIMATE, DISASTER, AND CONFLICT NEXUS IN LIBYA On September 10, 2023, a disaster unfolded in displaced. It is also estimated that approximately eastern Libya when Storm Daniel wreaked havoc 250,000 people will require humanitarian assistance with heavy rains and fierce winds.  A week prior, through December.11 Storm Daniel had developed over Greece, causing strong winds, heavy rain, floods, and loss of life in This event clearly constitutes a climate and Greece, Türkiye, and Bulgaria. It then crossed the environmental catastrophe for Libya. Climate Mediterranean to the Libyan coast, causing floods change made the recent rains up to 50 times more on September 10, 2023. It swept eastern Libya with likely and up to 50 percent more intense compared heavy rains and wind speeds of up to 80 km/h.8 The to a 1.2oC cooler climate.12 When the storm reached brunt of the storm’s impact was initially felt in the the northern coast of Libya, an estimated 400mm of coastal cities of the eastern region of the country rain fell in 24 hours, 267 times higher than the long including Derna, Benghazi, and Soussa; and later it term average daily precipitation for September of flooded Al-Bayda, Al-Marj and Shahhat. 1.5mm.13 The return period for such an event has been estimated to be 1 in 300 to 1 in 600 years.14 The The coastal city of Derna was hardest hit by the interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, storm after the failure of two dams upstream of the exposure and vulnerability led to widespread city on September 10 and 11. This led to the release impacts in the Mediterranean region, as reported by of 30 million cubic meters of water. World Weather Attribution. In Derna, the abnormally high rainfall and failure of the dams caused an Initially, the Bou Mansour dam overtopped and unprecedented disaster and flooded many areas breached at around 3 am Libya time on September 11 that had not been historically at risk. Rising global because of the rain. The water flowed 12 kilometers temperatures are exposing Libya to more climate- to the downstream Derna Dam, which subsequently related hazards, including floods, droughts, wildfires, collapsed due to the massive water inflow. Derna, extreme heat, sandstorms, and desertification.15 a city of 120,000 people, was then flooded, and floodwaters rose to three meters, submerging entire The flood and storm surge occurred in a populated neighborhoods.9 coastal area in the context of limited arrangements for effective Disaster Risk Management. Wadi As of November 28, the human toll has been Derna is prone to flooding and experienced five significant, making Storm Daniel the deadliest major floods in October 1942, October 1959, October storm in Africa since 1900.10 OCHA confirmed 4,352 1968, November 1986, and September 2011. The deaths, over 8,000 missing, and 43,400 internally district of Derna had previously been identified as 8 World Meteorological Organization (WMO). 9 International Federation of the Red Cross (IFRC), November 12, 2023. 10 Relief Web and Yale University, September 15th, 2023. 11 OCHA Humanitarian Update, November 28th, 2023. 12 This exceptional weather event is estimated to hit northern Libya once every 643 years. In a hypothetical, 1.2oC cooler world, this would be an even rarer event with a return period of 1900 years. (source: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/ bitstream/10044/1/106501/14/scientific report - Mediterranean floods.pdf ). 13 Relief Web, September 12th, 2023. 14 Zachariah, M et al. (2023). Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region. Report by World Weather Attribution. 15 UNDRR, 2023. https://www.undrr.org/media/85834/download?startDownload=true. 28 Introduction Figure 6: Flooding Intensity in the City of Derna Source: Assessment team. one of the six districts in Libya with an extreme In addition to urban areas, the disaster occurred risk of floods16. In the Libyan context where most in a zone rich in natural resources and ecosystem of the population resides in coastal areas (85 services, including coastal ecosystems, forests percent),17 the storm hit several cities with a high and woodlands, and agricultural lands. The flood- level of informal urban development and where impacted coastal zone (Cyrenaica) forms a 210 km many homes and companies occupy risk-prone long and 50km wide crest between Benghazi and areas. In Al Bayda and Soussa, houses, companies Derna of the 2000 km Libyan coastline. The affected and infrastructure on floodplains were significantly coastline supports seabirds, fish, and feeding and damaged the floods. Approximately 22 percent of nesting turtles and already faces coastal erosion Libya’s population, or 1.5 million people, were living from rising sea levels and increasingly severe winter in flood-affected districts. With only a few weather storms—factors exacerbated by climate change. The stations in the East, monitoring and forecasting for flood-affected area is also the only area in Libya with localized flood warnings were limited. In general, natural forests; Al-Jabal al-Akhdar, or the Green Libya’s institutional and regulatory framework for Mountain, stretches between Benghazi and Derna disaster and climate risk management is not clearly for about 350 km along the Mediterranean coast and defined, leading to ambiguity in mandates, roles, and is known for its plant diversity. It hosts 70 percent of responsibilities. Libya’s flora. Finally, the Northern strip, where the 16 Source: UNICEF (2023), Climate Landscape Analysis for Children (CLAC). 17 Source: https://www.climatelinks.org/resources/climate-risk-profile-libya. Introduction 29 flood occurred, has good rains and fertile soils, and Members of the international community have is intensively used for agriculture. called for a national unified reconstruction effort. On October 2, 2023, the UN Special Envoy for Libya, The Conflict and Disaster Nexus Abdoulaye Bathily, called for a unified mechanism to lead the reconstruction efforts caused by The flood occurred in a context of fragility and the flood. This position was supported by a joint conflict. Libya faces many interwoven structural statement of UN member states, echoing Bathily’s challenges contributing to its protracted state of position in calling for a unified mechanism to deliver fragility. Compounding these challenges are the transparent and accountable relief in the wake of diverse shocks including those related to natural the flood. On October 30th, 2023, the UN Security disasters and climate change that further intensify Council issued resolution 2702, extending the United and widen weaknesses related to low institutional Nations Support Mission in Libya (UNSMIL) until capacity and high insecurity, exacerbate population October 31, 2024, as it expressed concern over the displacement, and deepen the socioeconomic humanitarian situation in the flood-affected areas vulnerability of Libyans. and stressed “ the need for a coordinated national platform, supported by UNSMIL, to release funds for long-term reconstruction efforts that would be managed transparently with effective oversight and accountability to the Libyan people.”18 Figure 7: Flood–Prone Areas in Northeastern Libya Source: Assessment team. 18 UN Security Council Resolution 2702 (2023), available on https://press.un.org/en/2023/sc15469.doc.htm. 30 Introduction RDNA OBJECTIVES, METHODOLOGY, AND SCOPE In line with an institutionally anchored global tri- long-term physical infrastructure reconstruction party disaster response agreement, the World and service delivery restoration needs in selected Bank (WB), United Nations (UN), and the European cities and sectors.  The RDNA follows a globally Union (EU) embarked on a RDNA to assess the established and recognized damage, loss, and impact and needs arising of the disaster. The teams needs assessment methodology developed by held meetings with the Government of National Unity the WB, EU, and the UN. This methodology has (GNU)’s Ministry of Finance (MoF) and Ministry of been applied globally in post-disaster and conflict Local Governance (MoLG), as well as representatives contexts to inform recovery and reconstruction from the Benghazi-Derna Construction Fund (BDCF), planning. Each sector’s assessment has been to provide to provide an orientation on the RDNA conducted in a manner that also factors in the process, and methodology. drivers of fragility and conflict. Although the scope of the RDNA is limited to damages, losses and needs The overarching objective of the Libya RDNA is caused by the flood, the recommended recovery to inform Libyan stakeholders of the impact of measures attempt to contribute to longer-term the storm on the population, physical assets, stability and improved governance of the disaster- infrastructure, and service delivery; and to conduct affected region. a preliminary estimate of short-, medium-, and Temporal Scope The RDNA is based on remotely collected damage time horizon, further split into short-term recovery and loss data validated through limited ground over the first year and medium-term recovery over corroboration over September–October 2023. The 2–3 years. recovery needs estimated in this RDNA span a 3-year Geographic scope The RDNA covers 20 municipalities with an in-depth Wardam, Umar Al Mukhtar, Toukara, Benghazi, analysis in 5 cities. Gemienis, Suloug, Umm Arazam, Al Qubah, Al Abyar. • 20 Municipalities: Derna, Al Abraq, Soussa, Al • 5 Cities19: Derna, Soussa, Al-Bayda, Al-Marj, Bayda, Al Marj, Sahel Al Jabal, Shahaat, Jardas Al Shahhat. Abid, Medouar Al Zetoun, Al Qayqab, Ra’s Al Hilal, 19 “Municipalities” refer to administrative divisions that can encompass both urban and rural areas. In contrast, the term “City” specifically denotes the urban area contained within the municipal borders. The total estimated population for these 5 cities amounts to approximately 380,000 inhabitants, representing about 25% of the population out of the total population living in the 20 assessed municipal areas (Source: Libyan Bureau of Statistics and Census, 2020). Introduction 31 Sectoral scope The RDNA covers macroeconomic and socioeconomic Information and Communications Technology impacts, 12 sectors, and 7 cross-cutting areas. and Digital Development • Productive sectors: Agriculture and Irrigation, • Social sectors: Education, Health, Housing, Finance, Commerce, Industry and Markets Poverty, Social Protection and Livelihoods, and • Cross-cutting sectors: Governance, Fragility, Cultural Heritage Conflict and Displacement, Environment, • Infrastructure sectors: Water and Sanitation and Climate and Disaster Risk Management, Social Water Resource Management, Transport, Power, Sustainability and Inclusion, Women and Men. Municipal Services, and Digital Development and Methodology The RDNA assesses (i) damage to physical assets; (ii) reconstruction and recovery needs are comprised economic losses; and (iii) reconstruction and recovery of rebuilding infrastructure and restoring service needs per sector. The aggregated quantitative results delivery, and are phased across the immediate (0–1 and qualitative analyses were then used to assess the years) and medium terms (1–3 years). macroeconomic and human impacts. Libya’s position as a High-Middle-Income Country The RDNA predominantly relied on remotely with a significant government surplus will allow it collected data, with limited corroboration through to use public resources to implement the proposed ground actors and other sources, including UN priorities for immediate and medium-term agencies. The RDNA employed 50 cm resolution recovery. Libyan stakeholders may use the results of satellite imagery, social media analytics, anonymized the RDNA to inform their recovery and reconstruction cellphone data, night light data, publicly available investments, planning, and implementation. The information, and limited ground corroboration RDNA process is focused on producing knowledge through various sources. that could inform future reconstruction and recovery efforts benefiting all Libyans. The RDNA is based on the global damage, loss, and needs assessment methodology developed by A distinguishing feature of the Libya RDNA is its the EU, WB, and UN, which has been successfully application of various cross-cutting lenses across applied in numerous countries. The RDNA uses the all impacted sectors and needs assessments. This following definitions: damages are estimated as the enhances the responsiveness of sector analyses replacement values of totally, partially, or minimally and recovery strategies, allowing the incorporation damaged physical assets; losses are estimated from of fragility and conflict, Men and Women, climate the disruptions to the economy that arise from the change and social considerations. temporary absence of the damaged assets; and Limitations and Key Challenges Given the protracted conflict, Libya has a dearth The firm primarily collected and triangulated data of economic and social data. The international through remote sensing, anonymized cellular data, RDNA partners faced challenges in collecting data and social media sources. This approach helped due to the scarcity of sources and limited on-the- obtain damage and needs data from neutral and ground presence of the international community, technical actors employing internationally applied particularly in the affected areas. To address this rapid remote assessment tools. The RDNA team challenge, an international firm was contracted was able to collect data through remote means to remotely assess the extent and degree of and used the firm’s on-ground presence to ground- damage across sectors and verify recovery and truth and triangulate these data. Additionally, the reconstruction unit costs through different sources. UN, Impact REACH, and other international partners 32 Introduction were used to triangulate and validate these data. The helps ensure a neutral and objective assessment of mixed-use of the RDNA data collection approaches disaster impacts, needs, and costs. Despite these helped ensure the relative accuracy of the data while efforts to collect reliable data, the recovery phase acknowledging that remote approaches cannot will be an opportunity to supplement RDNA data by fully substitute for detailed ground-based damage conducting more comprehensive damage surveys surveys and inventories. The use of such methods across various sectors and affected areas. MACROECONOMIC AND HUMAN IMPACT Macroeconomic Impact The substantial damages and losses from the floods localized severity of the storm’s impact, emphasizing amounted to US$ 1.8 billion, approximately 3.6 the urgent need for targeted recovery efforts in percent of Libya’s GDP in 2022. The RDNA’s impact these regions. assessment shows that the impact wasn’t uniform across the regions and sectors. The municipalities Estimates indicate that while the disaster will of Al Bayda, Benghazi, Derna, Shahaat, and Soussa not have a significant macroeconomic impact emerged as the hardest-hit areas, collectively and will marginally affect the initial growth bearing a staggering 85 percent of damages and estimation, lack of reconstruction and a clear losses (Figure 9). This concentration highlights the vision of the funding mechanism of this effort Figure 8: Derna City Following the Floods (13SEP2023) AFTER Source: Assessment team. Introduction 33 Figure 9: Total Damages and Losses by Municipality Al Abraq Al Abyar Al Bayda Al Marj 13% 17% Al Qayqab Al Qubah Benghazi Derna Gemienis 10% Jardas Al Abid Medouar Al Zetoun Ra’s Al Hilal Sahel Al Jabal Shahaat Soussa Suloug 20% Toukara Umar Al Mukhtar Umm Arazam Wardam 25% Other Source: Assessment team. could lead to further negative growth. Prior to exemption from output cuts by OPEC contributed the catastrophe, Libya’s economic outlook for 2023 significantly to this boost. This surge in hydrocarbon appeared promising, with an expected economic production bolstered industrial activity, which grew growth of 14.1 percent following a negative GDP by 11.3 percent. Additionally, a 10 percent rise in growth of -1.2 percent the previous year. The surge the government wage bill fueled a remarkable 18.7 in oil production by 12 percent during the first nine percent growth in services. However, a CGE model months of 2023, averaging 1.191 million barrels per suggests a potential 0.07 percent national GDP day (bpd) compared to 1.057 million bpd in 2022, loss in 2023 due to damaged and lost capital in the was a key driver. Enhanced security measures and affected areas in the East. However, without adequate Figure 10: GDP Impacts in 2023 and Figure 11: Possible Inflationary Pressures Projections 2024–2025 on the Libyan Economy, 2023–2025 71 0 0.14 0 -0.07 69 -0.05 0.12 67 0.12 65 0.1 -0.1 63 0.08 0.09 61 -0.15 0.06 -0.21 -0.22 59 -0.2 0.04 57 0.02 0.03 55 -0.25 2022 2023 2024 2025 relative variation Without the Flooding 0 After the flooding 2023 2024 2025 Source: Assessment team. 34 Introduction Figure 12: Potential Reductions in Figure 13: Sectoral Impacts of Floods, Household Consumption, 2023–2025 2023–2025 2023 2024 2025 Culture and Heritage rest of public sector 0 Food and Tobacco Rest of industry Rest of service -0.02 -0.05 Agriculture Chemistry Transport Education -0.04 Finance Energy Mining Health Water -0.06 Oil -0.08 0 -0.5 -0.1 -1 -0.12 -1.5 -2 -0.16 -0.14 -2.5 -0.18 -0.16 -3 -3.5 -0.18 -4 -0.2 2023 2024 2025 Source: Assessment team. reconstruction efforts, this loss could escalate, The impact of the catastrophe rippled through potentially reaching 0.22 percent and 0.21 percent of diverse sectors, apart from oil and mining. In national GDP in 2024 and 2025, respectively (Figure the initial aftermath, the value-added in non- 10). In 2023, private consumption might decrease by oil and mining sectors may witness a marginal 0.05 percent, and the CPI could rise by 0.03 percent. decrease of less than one percent. Nevertheless, These trends may continue in 2024 and 2025, with without comprehensive reconstruction efforts, the price index increasing by 0.09 percent and 0.12 the consequences could escalate notably by 2024 percent, respectively. Household consumption might and 2025. This projection foresees a potential 3.5 also suffer, decreasing by 0.16 percent in 2024 and percent decline in the Transport sector and a two 0.18 percent in 2025. percent downturn in the Water and Health sectors, as illustrated in Figure 13. Figure 14: Contribution to GDP Figure 15: Sectoral GDP of Damage-affected Regions contributions 14 30.0 Benghazi Adminsitration, 12 Construction defense and 25.0 social security 10 Capital LOss Share Capital Loss Share 20.0 8 15.0 Electricity, gas and water supplies 6 Hotels and restaurants 10.0 Transport storage and communication 4 Al Jabal al Akhdar Health and social work 2 5.0 Agriculture hunting and forestry Al Marj Derna Education Mining and quarriying Financial liaisons 0 0.0 Transformative industries 0 10 20 30 40 50 0 10 20 30 40 GDP Share GDP Share Source: Assessment team (estimation based on RDNA methodology and IIRS Nighttime Lights and Facebook Relative Wealth Index). Introduction 35 The small macroeconomic impact of the In the affected regions, many private employees catastrophe can be attributed to the concentration and self-employed individuals have lost their of the disaster in Libya’s most modest regions jobs and incomes. This population in the affected and the fact that affected sectors make a minimal areas, representing five percent of the total Libyan contribution to Libya’s GDP. First, the most affected population, primarily works in the agricultural sector, areas, mainly Al Jabal al Akhdar, Derna, and Al-Marj, which accounts for 10 percent of economic activity in collectively account for 75 percent of the estimated Derna and 21 percent in Al Bayda. damages and loss; their contribution to the total Libyan GDP stands at just 7 percent (Figure 7). This The flooding also has the potential to increase prices concentration of impact in regions with relatively for food and goods in Al Jabal Al Akhdar and Derna lower economic activity has contained the broader due to damage to infrastructure, affecting supply economic fallout, limiting its reach across the chains. As of November 14, market functionality and national economy. prices in flood-affected areas largely returned to pre-flood levels, except for some non-food items20. Nevertheless, GDP loss could be significant at the regional level, particularly in the Derna, Al Local markets and economic activities have been Jabal Akhdar, Al Marj, and Benghazi districts. disrupted, although banking services are back. Table 1 illustrates this by distributing the GDP loss However, there is a limit on cash withdrawals, proportionally to the level of damage in each district capped at an average of 3,000 LYD (about US$ 610) relative to their pre-crisis GDP. Derna experiences per month. severe economic strain, with the most substantial GDP losses: -1.1 percent in 2023, followed by -3.7 At the national level, the impact on unemployment percent in 2024 and 2025. Al Jabal al Akhdar faces will be limited due to the substantial employment substantial setbacks, expecting a -0.8 percent GDP within the public sector (51 percent of the Libyan loss in 2023, worsening to -2.5 percent in 2024 workforce) and the extensive dependency on and 2025. Al Marj forecasts comparatively smaller income from public sources among the population but still notable declines, projecting -0.3 percent in (approximately 80 percent). However, the impact 2023 and -0.9 percent in 2024 and 2025. Meanwhile, could be more pronounced at the local level, Benghazi anticipates relatively minor reductions, particularly in affected regions. A significant portion with -0.1 percent in 2023 and -0.3 percent in 2024 of individuals engaged in private employment or and 2025. These impacts, observed at the district self-employment, accounting for approximately level; could be more pronounced at the municipal five percent of the population, predominantly in level, especially those the storm has directly hit. the agricultural sector—representing 10 percent of economic activity in Derna and 21 percent in Al Bayda—have experienced job loss and income Table 2: GDP Loss by District reduction. (Relative variation vis-à-vis Before the catastrophe, the GNU achieved a fiscal the business-as-usual scenario) surplus equivalent to 1.4 percent of GDP during the first nine months of 2023. Meanwhile, the GNU has 2023 2024 2025 announced the allocation of US$ 412 million (LYD 2 billion) for the Benghazi and Derna Construction Fund. Al Jabal al Akhdar -0.8 -2.5 -2.5 At the same time, the House of Representatives (HoR) Al Marj -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 approved US$ 2.1 billion (LYB 10 billion) for regional recovery. The GNU allocated an additional month of Benghazi -0.1 -0.3 -0.3 salary to civil servants in the affected areas. If the different announced expenditures materialize, the Derna -1.1 -3.7 -3.7 Derna flooding will have a significant fiscal impact. Source: Assessment team (estimation based on RDNA It could reduce the surplus and increase capital methodology and CGE model). expenditures for the response and recovery efforts. 20 OCHA, Libya Situation Report, November 14, 2023. 36 Introduction Social, Human, and Poverty Impact Over the past decade, Libyan households have parts of affected districts, are vulnerable to income- confronted a cascade of overlapping shocks, loss due to the immediate fallout of the floods. This severely impacting their welfare. These encompass may trigger rising food insecurity, exacerbating a protracted conflict, resulting in more than 135,000 existing concerns since 2014 and impeding access IDPs and approximately 674,000 returnees21, a to vital services such as healthcare and education. severe crisis in food and commodities stemming Also, self-employed people in the agricultural from reduced imports, the devaluation of the sector—representing 10 percent of economic currency in 2021, and, finally, the COVID-19 pandemic activity in Derna and 21 percent in Al Bayda—have causing a significant slow-down and limited experienced job loss and income reduction. recovery of economic activity.22 Although accurate data on poverty and vulnerability in Libya is limited, The scale of internal displacement compounds estimates suggest that two percent of the population the complexity of an already precarious situation. (135,000 people in 2021) are multidimensionally Preceding the floods, IOM estimated that Libya poor, and an additional 11.4 percent are classified hosted 125,000 IDPs. Storm Daniel has added an as vulnerable to multidimensional poverty (765 estimated 44,800 displaced individuals, including thousand people in 2021).23 The decline in food roughly 16,000 children.25 This influx of newly security over recent years, driven by disruption in affected populations accentuates vulnerabilities, the food supply and price increases of staple foods particularly among women, children, migrants, due to the world-wide pandemic and the Russian persons with disabilities, and those grappling invasion of Ukraine, has been significant. Prices with chronic illnesses. The floods have disrupted of essential goods, including housing, food and economic and social domains and created challenges drinks, water, gas, and transport, have contributed for school children and vulnerable women; they also to high inflation since 2021, impacting households trigger mental health consequences and widen post- across the welfare spectrum and underscoring the conflict social disparities. proximity of economic hardship.24 The storm and floods have substantially disrupted Estimates indicate that 22 percent of the country’s social protection services and benefits, critical to population, totaling 1.5 million individuals, reside supporting affected populations, including newly in the areas affected by the floods, particularly in displaced individuals (IDPs), already socially the districts of Derna, Benghazi, Al Marj, and Al Jabal vulnerable groups (female heads of households, al Akhdar. According to the UN’s OCHA update on the people with disabilities, unaccompanied and situation in the disaster regions as of November 28, separated children, children who lost one or both 2023, 250,000 people need humanitarian assistance, parents, etc.), and workers in the informal economy. 44,800 are internally displaced, 4,352 are deceased, The lack of investment in disaster preparedness and over 8,000 are still missing. and risk reduction prior to the floods has further compounded vulnerabilities. The social protection Housing and agriculture damages and losses have sector faces effectiveness and efficiency challenges severely impacted the livelihoods and households associated with the absence of robust delivery of Libyans. The flood caused significant housing systems that allow the identification of populations damage, with seven percent of the total housing in need, and the delivery of programs, including stock of the 20 municipalities destroyed. Derna bears responses to shocks. Following the floods, nearly 26 the brunt of this damage, where approximately 4,000 percent of the infrastructure for social assistance, buildings were damaged or destroyed. Additionally, including physical facilities and offices, was either agricultural livelihoods, particularly in the northern destroyed or partially damaged. Out of the twenty 21 According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Center as of the end of 2022. 22 Irhiam, Hend R., Michael G. Schaeffer, and Kanae Watanabe, editors. 2023. The Long Road to Inclusive Institutions in Libya: A Sourcebook of Challenges and Needs. International Development in Focus series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1922-3. 23 https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/MPI/LBY.pdf. 24 World Bank. September 2022. Libya economic monitor. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/publication/libya- economic-monitor-september-2022. 25 Ibid. Introduction 37 municipalities covered in the assessment, only five threaten the ability of affected households to cope have social protection and job institutions– Derna, and recover from the storm’s impact. Immediate Soussa, Al Bayda, Al Marj, and Benghazi. These five needs for food and treated water must be met to municipalities were, in fact, the most impacted by prevent malnutrition and water-borne diseases. the floods. Reconstruction of damaged or destroyed buildings and other physical capital will take time, but the Reconstruction of physical assets may be immediate recovery of human capital, particularly for prioritized in the aftermath of the floods, but vulnerable populations, should be monitored. Since ensuring comprehensive and equitable service flood impacts are concentrated in the eastern part delivery is critical for Libya and the affected of Libya, an incomplete recovery would exacerbate communities. Pre-existing vulnerabilities from spatial disparities and may foster social tensions. prolonged conflict and the COVID-19 pandemic 38 SUMMARY OF RDNA SECTOR FINDINGS © Seraj Elhouni/Shutterstock.com Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 39 This section of the report summarizes sector-level provide sector-level baselines, damages, losses, assessments of damages, losses and needs, and recovery strategies, and needs; disaggregated sector recovery strategies. The full treatment is for sector asset typologies, and damage and loss given in the “Detailed Sector Assessments,” which distribution across municipalities. SOCIAL SECTORS Housing Damage: US$ 361.8 million The total recovery needs of the housing sector are Loss: US$ 65.8 million estimated at US$ 517.4 million (LYD 2,486 million) Needs: US$ 517.4 million at current prices – with a build-back-better factor. While the reconstruction investment needs of partly The damages to the Housing sector are estimated damaged and destroyed houses is estimated at at US$ 361.8 million (LYD 1,739 million). The losses, US$ 470.4 million (LYD 2,260 million), the financial encompassing household assets and rent losses, are cost to provide technical assistance to structure estimated at US$ 65.8 million (LYD 316.2 million). The the recovery plan is estimated at US$ 47 million. total damages and losses are thus estimated at US$ In a sequenced approach, nearly US$ 268.1 million 427.6 million (LYD 2,055 million) in disaster effects, (LYD 1,288 million) is required in the short term to calculated at replacement values prior to the disaster. focus on the rapid benefits of renovation and repair, Distribution of the total damages and losses across the leaving reconstruction to the medium to longer term. 20 municipalities indicates that Benghazi and Derna The immediate to short term priority interventions share nearly 65 percent of the total damage cost. It should also include the development of housing must be noted that while the intensity and extent of and settlement recovery policies and institutional flooding in Benghazi municipality was less than in other arrangements to coordinate stakeholders and service municipalities, its relatively high damage is due to its delivery, and to plan and manage implementation. higher residential density. Overall, seven percent of the Recovery will only be achieved through a multi-faceted total housing stock of the 20 municipalities, or almost strategy of access to land, materials, and financing, 19,000 units, mostly in urban areas, was damaged which enables private sector participation to deliver during the flood; and of the damaged units, 17.4 the mass housing required for rapid recovery. This percent are considered destroyed as per the definition strategy must include rental housing and protect used in the RDNA. These damages will exacerbate the property rights. A homeowner-based approach will severe issue of access to housing. This problem has enhance the housing supply in the immediate term and grown since 2011, with diminishing availability and strengthen community ownership and partnerships in growing demand, especially for low-income wfamilies, reconstruction processes to allow incremental home migrants, and internally displaced persons (IDPs). improvements with greater cost control. Although this approach may not apply to all housing categories, it Housing damage costs are estimated at two largely addresses low-income groups who have lost levels - first by housing typologies26 and second their home. Hence, capacity support will be required across the 20 municipalities. Damage estimates to apply sustainable house-building strategies and are based on projected units for typologies, and standards and to mitigate the limited capacity of the this disaggregation has significantly improved national authorities and municipalities to enforce their reliability. The assessment also separates regulations and manage their likely shortcomings. In flood damage from conflict damage. However, in addition, risk-based urban planning is needed so that the absence of a ground-based assessment, the units are not sited in flood-prone areas. Disaster- damages derived from the flood-intensity-based resilient and energy-efficient build-back-better estimates may need further verification during the practices should guide reconstruction, and a layered, recovery implementation phase.  programmatic approach should be sensitive to the needs of men and women and fragility and conflict- related vulnerabilities.   26 In Libya, the housing stock is classified in 4 categories: traditional home, villa, apartment and informal (or other). 40 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings Education Damage: US$ 30.1 million safety programs, psychosocial support, educational Loss: US$ 28.7 million supplies, and temporary teaching staff.   Needs: US$ 117.7 million Recovery and reconstruction needs in education, The damage to the education sector is estimated at consisting of infrastructure and restored service US$ 30.1 million (LDY 144.7 million). The losses are delivery, are assessed at US$ 117.7 million for estimated at US$ 28.7 million (LYD 138.1 million).  a period of three years. The immediate needs in The total damages and losses are thus estimated at education over the next 12 months amount to US$ US$ 58.8 million (LYD 282.7). For damages across 35.3 million. In the medium term (years 2 and 3), the 20 municipalities, 37 education facilities were needs in education amount to US$ 82.4 million. The fully destroyed, and 155 facilities were partially recovery strategy must account for building-back- damaged. Ninety-seven schools combining primary better and address access to and quality of education and secondary education were partially damaged in tandem, with the goal of limiting and ultimately or destroyed, followed by 45 secondary schools, reversing learning losses. This must encompass 37 primary schools, and 13 colleges/universities. assessing learning losses, planning for learning Economic losses relate to unexpected public recovery, establishing systems to track students’ expenditures, such as temporary education spaces, access and learning, and continuous education and support for teachers to adapt to new conditions.   Health Damage: US$ 28.3 million The health recovery strategy needs to address the Loss: US$ 68.6 million related effects of the conflict and the floods and Needs: US$ 113.1 million requires an estimated US$ 113.1 million. The near- term priority is to restore the continuity of essential The damage to the health facilities, including those health services in functional and minimally damaged completely destroyed (0.3 percent of the total) and facilities while continuing to provide services through those partially damaged (17 percent of the total), is mobile units in areas without health facilities. This estimated at US$ 28.3 million (LYD 135.8 million) - requires vaccines and medicines for pregnant 17.3 percent of the total. The estimated economic loss women, children, and patients with chronic diseases, to the health sector is more substantial, amounting addressing the needs of women’s reproductive and to US$ 68.6 million (LYD 329.7 million). The total maternal health and access to family planning, and damages and losses are thus estimated at US$ 96.9 providing mental health and psychosocial support million. The flood-damaged facilities are mostly services. Health facilities need to be re-equipped primary care facilities, hospitals, and pharmacies. with medical and diagnostic equipment and One hospital was destroyed in Benghazi. The highest emergency health teams to bolster existing staff. density of damaged and destroyed facilities is in Improved disease surveillance for early detection of Soussa, with 100 percent of facilities damaged. The outbreaks and preventative measures such as risk largest category of economic loss is the funds to communication and water quality monitoring are treat people injured in the floods, including the costs also needed. In the medium to long term, the priority of long-term rehabilitation. Shortages of medicines, should be to rebuild facilities with energy-efficient, vaccines, medical equipment, medical consumables climate-resilient designs to strengthen medical and lack of health staff affect care provision. supply chains and procurement systems, build local Infectious and non-communicable diseases (NCD) health human resource capacity, strengthen PHC need immediate attention, and mental health support service delivery and pandemic preparedness, and has emerged as a priority. systematically engage the private health sector to help provide affordable services. Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 41 Social Protection and Jobs Damage: US$ 0.38 million RDNA and has therefore not been included in the Needs: US$ 112 million calculations. The aggregate damage to the Social Protection An estimated 6,657 households27 were displaced, and Jobs (SPJ) sector is estimated at US$ 0.38 which constitute 15 percent of Libya’s population, million (LYD 1.8 million). The storm is estimated to with Derna and Soussa bearing the brunt of have substantially disrupted the provision of social housing damage and destruction and, as a result, protection services and benefits, which are critical the highest number of displaced populations. The to support the affected populations, including premise of the SPJ sector proposed approach is to the new IDPs, socially vulnerable groups (female cover every household in the flood-impacted area, heads of households, people with disabilities), and given that all households were affected by one form workers in the informal economy. With respect to of misfortune or another, and many by multiple the SPJ-related asset damage, around 26 percent misfortunes. All households should be assisted to of SPJ sector infrastructure (public administrative meet their specific needs based on the challenges buildings, employment centers, residential care they have experienced (livelihood and income loss, facilities and payment points) were destroyed or fragility, and multidimensional poverty) until they partially damaged across the five most impacted regain access to services, have permanent housing municipalities. The floods resulted in the complete arrangements, and re-establish their livelihoods. loss of functionality in nine percent of SPJ institutions Based on this approach, the main objectives of the and a partial reduction in functionality in another SPJ recovery strategy are to address the increase in nine percent. The bulk of SPJ damage was in the fragility as measured by displacement; income loss municipality of Derna, where two SSA buildings were as broadly measured by informality; and the increase destroyed, and an employment center was partially of multidimensional poverty through (i) emergency damaged, followed by Soussa, where a Social cash transfers (ECT) to displaced households to Security Administration (SSA) building was partially address the loss of shelter; (ii) income support to damaged but maintained partial functionality. address livelihood and income loss for households Notably, data on SPJ losses, including loss of income who presumably lost their productive assets; and through the loss of productive assets or the death (iii) consumption support to wage earners (in the or injury of breadwinners, remained scarce and public and private sectors) to address the increase not entirely reliable at the time of producing this in multidimensional poverty. Cultural Heritage Damage: US$ 108.7 million or non-functioning, with 45 partially functioning Loss: US$ 64.5 million (6.5 percent) and 32 not functioning (4.5 percent). Needs: US$ 169.6 million The floods have affected religious sites, including mosques and churches, archaeological and historical Storm Daniel had a devastating impact on Cultural sites, and museums across seven municipalities, Heritage, causing damages of US$ 108.7 million including 31 of 485 mosques, 1 of 8 churches, 20 of (LYD 530.7 million) and losses of US$ 64.5 million 27 archeological sites, 8 of 20 historical sites, and 2 (LYD 314.7 million), with total damages and losses of 4 museums. Seventy percent of the damage was of US$ 173.2 million (LYD 845.4 million). recorded in Shahhat municipality, home to ruins from the ancient city of Cyrene and a UNESCO World Around 10 percent of cultural properties in the 20 Heritage property. municipalities have been affected, with 62 cultural properties (9 percent) partially damaged and The storm increased the vulnerability of many five completely destroyed (1 percent). The storm of these sites, exposed them to further risks, also left 11 percent of cultural properties partially including looting and vandalism, and exposed 27 Based on estimates from UNHCR and IRC data. 42 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings archaeological remains and artifacts requiring existing and newly- uncovered cultural properties urgent documentation and protection. Many of these and artifacts, identify areas that are at risk of sites are regularly accessed, and their damage has further collapse and store artifacts; (3) repair created disruptions beyond the physical impacts; cultural properties as feasible to restore function religious sites serve as community centers, with and ensure their preservation, particularly for sites many used post-disaster as shelters for the displaced regularly accessed by local communities; and (4) or points to access non-food aid and emergency provide technical assistance to local authorities response supplies. Therefore, the calculation of and professionals for emergency response for losses considers the costs of documentation and physical and legal protection of cultural properties. emergency intervention to prevent further damage, In the medium term, it is recommended to continue mitigation of new risks and increased vulnerabilities, the repair of cultural properties and undertake and loss of revenue associated with temporary further management measures and inventories as closure or non-availability of sites. excavations continue, while also providing technical assistance to: (1) re-establish and strengthen the The recovery investment needs for Cultural governance arrangements and technical capacities Heritage are estimated at US$ 169.63 million (LYD of institutions and culture professionals involved 827.8 million). The figure represents short- and in the protection of Cultural Heritage, including medium-term needs, estimated based on recovery the integration of culture and cultural heritage in needs, including: the reconstruction of destroyed urban recovery plans and strategies, (2) revise and and partly damaged cultural properties, surveying enforce legal measures to prevent future damage and safeguarding uncovered archaeological remains to Cultural Heritage, and (3) develop a disaster risk and artifacts, implementing temporary measures management strategy for Cultural Heritage, which and restoring fundamental services while repair supports emergency preparedness and response works are completed, and technical assistance. to protect Cultural Heritage in the event of future In the short term, it is recommended that: (1) disasters. The immediate needs should be focused implement emergency measures such as shoring, on the protection of cultural properties from further propping, sheltering, structural reinforcements, damage and/or collapse, and promoting continuity and evacuation of damaged and recently exposed of services, particularly for sites regularly accessed cultural properties and artifacts to prevent further by local communities. Technical assistance to public damage and/or collapse; (2) carry out emergency institutions is also needed to enhance physical and management and conservation measures and legal protection to safeguard Cultural Heritage. inventories to document the extent of damage to PRODUCTIVE SECTORS Agriculture Damage: US$ 22.7 million equipment, and machinery due to the lack of Loss: US$ 53.4 million available data. In total, 16,209 ha of annual crops Needs: US$ 36.2 million were affected and lost their harvest, with a value of US$ 8.53 million (LYD 41.6 million) in losses. Damages and losses in the agriculture sector In addition, a total of 487,078 grape vines and are estimated at US$ 22.75 million (LYD 111.04 fruit trees were affected, from which 5,011 trees million) and US$ 53.43 million (LYD 260.73 million), were uprooted with a value of US$ 1.03 million respectively, with a total of US$ 76.18 million (LYD (LYD 5.01 million) in damage and will have to be 371.77).  replanted. 2023’s whole grape and fruit production was lost, representing a value of US$ 2.78 million This analysis includes annual crops, perennial (LYD 13.57 million) in losses. In terms of livestock, trees, and livestock but does not consider damages a total of 74,363 animals were reported dead, to irrigation systems, infrastructures, buildings, representing approximately 3.2 percent of the Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 43 affected region’s herd, of which 2,112 were cattle million) were for short-term interventions and US$ (80 percent cows), 53,632 sheep and 18,619 goats. 13.89 million (LYD 67.8 million) for medium-term In addition to the value of the dead animals, whose interventions. damage was estimated at US$ 21.73 million (LYD 106.03 million), herders have also lost their animal The recovery directly addresses the needs of the products (milk, offspring, and wool) until restocking affected farming and livestock households and is completed and animals gain maturity, with a loss communities through the following proposed estimated at US$ 42.12 million (LYD 205.6 million). recovery interventions: i) replanting annual crops The physical constitution of the remaining livestock (seeds, inputs, and tractor rent), ii) assistance is also affected due to the reduced quality of the package for affected perennial crops (fertilizer, pastureland or depletion of rangeland resources tractor rent), iii) restocking of lost animals, iv) after the storm, leading to a potentially higher risk vaccination campaign for the remaining animals of epidemic outbreaks. and v) training workshops on SMART agriculture and climate change adaptation. Estimating the Recovery needs in the agriculture sector are costs for the reconstruction or rehabilitation of the estimated at overall US$ 36.23 million (LYD 176.79 damage to infrastructures, buildings, equipment, million), of which US$ 22.33 million (LYD 108.98 and machinery would require a field assessment. Financial sector Damage: US$ 2.6 million Total needs for a rapid and resilient recovery are Loss: US$ 0.4 million estimated at US$ 3.8 million (LYD 18.4 million). Needs: US$ 3.8 million Recovery efforts need to focus on rapid repair and reconstruction in the short-term to restore financial The total estimated damage for the financial sector services delivery and allow clients to access their amounts to US$ 2.6 million (LYD 12.3 million). Loss funds. In the short-term it is also essential to provide estimates resulting from the disrupted service emergency financing to support carefully targeted amount to US$ 0.4 million (LYD 1.9 million). The households and businesses directly impacted by the total damages and losses are thus estimated at floods. In the longer term, there is a need to modernize US$ 2.9 million (LYD 14.1 million). 11.3 percent of the financial sector and reinforce its resilience, accounted for financial sector infrastructure28 was stability, transparency, and integrity, notably through significantly affected by the floods, with eight bank strengthening supervision, improving governance, branches partially damaged and five destroyed. reinforcing credit infrastructure, further developing Derna is the most affected municipality, accounting digital financial infrastructure, and initiating the for 77 percent of total damage in flooded areas, greening of the financial sector, notably banking and with five partially damaged bank branches and insurance instruments to finance green transition five destroyed, partially preventing residents from adaptation and mitigation. Finally, diversifying accessing their funds. The remaining three partially financial offerings beyond the banking sector would damaged bank branches are in Al Bayda, Benghazi, also greatly improve financial intermediation and and Shahhat. Banking infrastructure, including inclusion. core banking systems, remains largely intact, and the impact on business continuity is manageable in most municipalities. Losses resulted from the disrupted service in bank branches and money exchange / transfer offices. Information on other financial institutions (money transfer operators, insurance companies, and microfinance institutions) is not available. 28 IPSOS data were limited, only accounting for bank and money exchange branches and not for ATMs, PoS, leasing, microfinance, insurance, and other financial sector infrastructure. 44 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings INFRASTRUCTURE SECTORS Energy Damage: US$ 34 million The flood-damaged assets are mostly the Loss: US$ 40.8 million electric transmission substations. These should Needs: US$ 97.3 million be prioritized in reconstruction efforts to restore electricity services to all affected areas. The total The damage to Libya’s electricity infrastructure, needs for their reconstruction are estimated at including power transmission facilities, is estimated US$ 97.3 million, including US$ 66.4 million in the at US$ 34 million in terms of capital cost of the assets. short-term (within one year) and the remaining US$ In addition, the loss of functionality of the assets in 30.9 million over the following two years. In the September 2023 caused power outages leading to longer term, Libyan power utilities should prioritize economic losses estimated at US$ 40.8 million. The generation capacity by resuming delayed power total damages and losses are thus estimated at US$ plant construction, overhaul, and maintenance. 74.8 million. The sector’s analysis didn’t include gas Incentives for energy efficiency and renewable or oil-related facilities – due to the lack of available energy development should be created as well. data. Transport Damage: US$ 140 million of the road network in the impacted areas became Loss: US$ 21 million impassable due to flash floods and mud-floods.31 Needs: US$ 209 million The impact of the damage to the road infrastructure extends far beyond the immediate physical damage. Storm Daniel devastated transport infrastructure Losses resulted from falling debris from destroyed in the affected region. The estimated damage is buildings, the accumulation of water and mud, and US$ 140 million (LYD 671 million), and the losses the destruction of vehicles, which impeded people’s are estimated at US$ 21 million (LYD 101 million). mobility and access to food and essential services. The total damage and loss to the Transport sector It also hindered the authorities’ and relief agencies’ is US$ 161 million (LYD772 million). The storm ability to undertake relief and recovery efforts and impacted twenty municipalities in the Eastern region to reach hospitals and support centers. Due to data of Libya. A total of 673 kilometers, nearly five percent limitations, economic losses related to transport of the total road network, of primary and secondary disruptions were estimated as a percentage of the roads have been either entirely or partially damaged. total damage in the sector, rather than deriving Benghazi, Al Bayda, Sousa, and Derna municipalities precise figures from disruption-specific data. suffered the highest damage to road transport infrastructure, accounting for more than 80 percent The estimated transport sector recovery and of the total damage. Nearly 220 km of rural roads reconstruction costs in the 20 municipalities were severely damaged in Benghazi, followed by impacted by the storm is US$ 209 million (LYD 150 km in Al-Bayda, 88 km in Sousa and 86 km in 1,003 million). The costs cover both short-term Derna.29 Following the storm, nearly 50 percent30 and medium-term initiatives. The initial 12-month 29 The data used was provided by IPSOS vendor, include satellite imagery, and unit rates. The team used the High estimates data for the analysis. 30 Libya new Agency- Roads and Bridges authority reveals percentage to infrastructure in east of the country. 2023-09-23. 31 Roads and Bridges Authority reveals the damage percentage to infrastructure in the east of the country, published 09/23/2023; Libyan News Agency - Roads and Bridges Authority reveals the damage percentage to infrastructure in the east of the country. (lana.gov.ly). Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 45 phase will primarily concentrate on urgent recovery of BBB will strengthen the institutional capacity to efforts and reinstating services. Priority will be safeguard the transportation sector’s infrastructure given to emergency removal and safe disposal against climate change-related shocks. This phase of debris and restoring safe access to residential will be an opportunity to implement long-term and economic centers. During this phase, plans multi-year rehabilitation, maintenance programs and strategies should be formulated to develop a utilizing asset management, and performance- national transportation strategy, ensuring inclusivity based maintenance principles, and private sector and multimodality and contributing to Libya’s green participation. Additionally, it will establish data and sustainable development. The estimated cost systems and cross-sector coordination for Early for short-term recovery in the transport sector is Warning Systems (EWS). The cost for the BBB phase US$ 63 million. The medium and long-term phases is estimated at US$ 146 million. Telecommunications and Digital Development Damage: US$ 0.45 million in the affected area. The effects of the damage were Loss: US$ 0.02 million localized and resulted in service disruption in three municipalities. However, losses due to downtime Assessment of damage to the ICT sector shows from damaged radio towers were minimal, as was limited impact on the mobile communications the overall impact on service delivery for mobile access network. The total damage and losses communication services in the areas affected by in the municipalities of Wardam, Soussa, and Al the floods. Bayda were estimated at US$ 0.47 million (2.3 million LYD), including US$ 0.45 million (LYD 2.2 Reconstruction and recovery needs were million) in damage and US$ 0.02 million (LYD 0.11 estimated at US$ 0.8 million (3.9 million LYD), given million) in losses. This figure takes account of the the increase in the value of telecommunication mobile communication towers that were completely equipment, global inflation levels and the incidental destroyed by the floods, in addition to the partially costs of shipment and installation of replacement destroyed towers that require repair/restoration. equipment. Given the reconstruction needs and the While assessment of damage to the fixed network limited, localized damage to mobile communication and fiber optic transport network was not possible infrastructure, most of the pressing reconstruction due to the lack of data, the overall damage to radio and rehabilitation works can be implemented communication was observed in three out of the within 12 months. The medium-term needs include 20 municipalities affected by the floods. It affected the complete restoration of the partially damaged approximately 10 percent of the radio towers in the towers, and their upgrade to more shock-resilient targeted area. The damage was concentrated in the and climate-aware standards. Short-term needs municipalities of Wardam, Soussa, and Al Bayda and, include the reconstruction of the two damaged while limited, caused the complete destruction of towers in the municipalities of Wardam and Soussa 2.4 percent of radio communication towers and the and the restoration of service to the three affected partial destruction of 7.3 percent of the total baseline municipalities. 46 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings Water and Sanitation and Water Resource Management Damage: US$ 136.5 million functionality of systems to pre-disaster performance Loss: US$ 20.5 million levels or to ensure at least basic minimum service Needs: US$ 234.6 million provision, including restoring infrastructure for water supply and sanitation to limit/eliminate the Total damages32 and losses in the Water and risk of Acute Watery Diarrhea (AWD) pollutant, and Sanitation and Water Resource Management provide funding for the repair and operational costs sector are assessed at US$ 157.0 million (LYD of these facilities. The General Company for Water 754.2 million), including US$ 136.5 million (LYD and Wastewater (GWWC) services needs to complete 655.8 million) in damage and US$ 20.5 million infrastructure repairs to resume services and (LYD 98.4 million) in losses. The water-related ensure water quality. The reconstruction provides infrastructure covered under this assessment an opportunity for BBB and to introduce resilient includes dams, storage systems, water treatment infrastructure design principles and improved facilities (e.g., desalination plants), water pumping resilience. Another priority is addressing future stations, wastewater treatment facilities (e.g., flood impact risks by establishing a consultative small wastewater treatment facilities), wastewater planning process that can build consensus on the treatment plants and Water, Sanitation and Hygiene most cost-effective, economically efficient, and (WASH) administration facilities. It does not resilient approach. This would include the potential include smaller infrastructure elements, notably for hydraulic infrastructure, such as dams in Wadi groundwater wells, underground facilities, water Derna or flood diversion channels, and alternative and wastewater networks, and stormwater drainage approaches to managing the river informed by urban systems. As a consequence of recent storm surges spatial planning. and floods, there is significant damage to several large assets, including the complete destruction of Extrapolated data was provided for the on-ground three dams and one wastewater treatment plant. facilities, including pumping stations and ground However, despite the magnitude of the storm, data on desalination and wastewater treatment reported damage to storage systems, desalination plants. Since this report relies on satellite images, the plants33 and pumping stations appears limited. The analysis was limited to larger, above-ground water administrative buildings associated with water sector infrastructure. This RDNA shall be complemented institutions and wastewater facilities appeared to by additional in-depth field level investigations to be largely unaffected, and most key facilities are determine the magnitude of the damage and the assumed to be functioning. Losses resulted from the resources needed for reconstruction. The water disruption of service of the damaged infrastructures. sector section of the RDNA excludes water irrigation systems, underground infrastructure (water supply The sector’s total recovery and reconstruction networks, sewerage networks, and stormwater needs for the sector are estimated to be US$ drainage), and house-level water infrastructure (e.g., 234.6 million (LYD 1,127 million). The immediate household connections). requirement of the water sector is to restore the Municipal Services Damage: US$ 11.7 million estimated at US$ 11.7 million (LYD 56.4 million) at Needs: US$ 20.5 million replacement value prices prior to the disaster. Due to the levels of municipal services provided by the The total damage costs of public and municipal municipalities, the absence of cost recovery practices, services provided by the 20 municipalities are and the lack of data on the capital and operational 32 This cost represents the average of the low and high estimated cost of the damages and losses. 33 Wastewater treatment plants and the desalination plants were not properly functioning before the flood. Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 47 expenditures incurred by the municipalities before The total recovery investment need of the public and after the disaster, the economic loss to the and municipal service sector is estimated at municipalities is currently considered insignificant US$ 20.5 million (LYD 98.6 million) at current or not measurable. The two factors that contributed prices, including the costs to restore the services to the low damage cost are – first, only a few types of and technical assistance required to design and services are being assessed in the municipal sector implement the recovery strategy. About US$ 9 due to lack of data – including town/city hall, police million is needed in the short term. The institutional stations, fire stations, entertainment, community challenges experienced by the municipalities to market, and municipal building; and second, the level provide the minimum level and quality of basic of damage is relatively low - only 13 percent of the services are twofold; first, the lack of laws34 to baseline assets are damaged, and only 3.4 percent devolve services to the Municipal Councils; and of these are destroyed. Police stations, municipal second, the lack of predictive fiscal transfers and buildings and theatres are among the services that devolution of fiscal and financial resources to were destroyed. However, obtaining more data on municipalities, including resource mobilization and the missing municipal services may be beneficial to expenditure management responsibilities to the guide recovery efforts and allocate resources. The municipal councils. Furthermore, it is also important damage costs incurred by the Derna, Al Bayda and to recognize that the limited technical capacity, Soussa municipalities are higher than those of other both at Central and Local Government levels is municipalities. Fire stations have been examined as another institutional impediment to be addressed assets within the municipal services category and in the municipal service recovery strategy. Capacity treated as locally provided services, despite falling building at Central and Local levels to conceptualize outside the purview of municipal council authority. and implement the fiscal and functional devolution of municipal functions should be an important component of the recovery strategy. CROSS-CUTTING SECTORS Governance and Public institutions Damage: US$ 1.2 million Al Abid, Suloug, and Umm Arazam. The 16 partially Losses: US$ 0.35 million damaged facilities include courthouses, post offices Needs: US$ 23 million and provincial and national administration buildings. With regards to functionality, 101 (79 percent) are Physical damage to the governance sector is US$ functioning, 11 (8 percent) are partially functioning, 1.2 million (LYD 5.7 million). The losses incurred to 1 (1 percent) are not functioning, and 15 (12 percent) governance facilities in the affected areas amount to are unknown. The losses cover removal of debris, US$ 0.35 million (LYD 1.72 million). The Municipality- lost equipment, vehicles, furniture; temporary rental level consolidated damage and functionality data of premises during rehabilitation; and the loss of shows no public institution buildings were destroyed35. documents and records. Of the 128 public institution buildings, 102 (80 percent) of buildings in the affected zones had no observable Recovery and reconstruction needs for the damage, 16 (12 percent) were partially damaged, and governance sector are much larger than damages, 10 (8 percent) were unknown. Of the 20 municipalities at US$ 23 million, due to the cross-cutting nature assessed, 16 assets are partially damaged, of which of governing the multi-sector recovery process. five are in Derna, three in Soussa, two each in Al In the immediate- and short term, it is critical Bayda and Benghazi, and one each in Al-Marj, Jardas to restore public services, as disruptions could 34 See Detailed Municipal Sector Assessment on the relevant laws. 35 Outside of the Municipal Services scope of this report. 48 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings exacerbate the deterioration of public confidence in to public institutions will facilitate service delivery. public institutions. The recovery and reconstruction In the medium term, the total cost of recovery needs in the short-term are estimated at US$ and reconstruction for the 16 partially damaged 9 million. The main priority is restoring the 16 buildings, and governance reforms is estimated at partially damaged public institution buildings to pre- US$ 14 million. These costs include designs and disaster levels and to implementing public financial implementation of governance reforms and systems management reforms to BBB. In addition, the for recovery across all sectors and are elaborated in removal of small amounts of debris hindering access the detailed governance sector assessment. Environment Damage: US$ 157 million for six watershed areas impacted by chemical spills, Loss: US$ 257.4 million untreated sewage water discharge, leakage from solid Needs: US$ 70.5 million waste management sites, and disaster waste. The affected coastline is home to an active fisheries sector The total damages for the Environment sector are which provides livelihoods for coastal communities. 80 assessed at US$ 157.1 million (LYD 754.88 million) percent of the artisanal fishing vessels in the affected and annual losses are assessed at US$ 257.38 area were destroyed, causing fishermen to lose their million (LYD 1,235.56 million). Environmental sector boats and source of income. Of significant concern for damage and losses assessment cover various the fisheries sector is the availability of permanent ecosystems, including forests, woodlands, protected and seasonal landing sites—5 of the 40 landing sites areas, wetlands, and coastal zones. Destruction of were destroyed by the disaster. or damage to Libya’s ecosystems does not only impact physical assets but also the often invisible Recovery and reconstruction needs for prioritized yet vital services they provide. Furthermore, post- environment sector interventions are estimated at disaster environmental degradation can exacerbate US$ 70.52 million (LYD 338.88 million) for years pre-existing fragility and conflict challenges, 1–3. Ecosystem-based adaptation and nature- especially in communities that depend on land and based Ecosystem-based adaptation and nature- agriculture. The calculations presented in this report based solutions are key approaches to floods and also include damages and losses resulting from droughts that are exacerbated by climate change soil contamination due to debris, mud, and leakage, in Libya. Urgent acceleration of these approaches including from landfills and damaged gas stations. is vital to build resilience at the community and national levels, and to prepare for future events and Almost 37 percent of the affected coastal zone area natural disasters. The estimate for recovery and experienced significant damages and losses, with reconstruction needs encompasses those stemming Derna experiencing catastrophic damages and from flood damages, enhancing natural capital in the losses, losing around 25 percent of its landmass. most impacted and high-risk sites, and strengthening Coastal ecosystems not only provide important governance for environmental oversight to maintain environmental services and hold a high economic the sustainability of reconstruction efforts. A value but, once destroyed, are very costly to restore. comprehensive environmental recovery strategy The discharge of debris, sediments, and potentially is required to BBB, design resilience to climate hazardous materials is expected to have significant change-induced disasters, and curb the pace of impacts on marine ecosystems and affect important environmental degradation and pollution. While the biodiversity. The extreme rainfall and associated overall environmental recovery needs arising from runoff destroyed 4.6 percent of the agricultural area in the disaster are much larger and will require many the flood-affected region, causing the loss of topsoil, years to implement, this assessment has prioritized which is costly to restore. Almost 63 percent of the immediate and medium-term needs for a three- wetlands, including two RAMSAR sites, were damaged year time horizon as part of a comprehensive or destroyed, compromising important ecological environmental resilience strategy, amounting to functions and habitats for globally important US$ 70.52 million. Its four main components are: biodiversity. Forests and woodlands provide multiple (i) Ecosystem-based restoration and adaptation in ecosystem services and benefits, and 3.6 percent vulnerable landscapes; (ii) Pollution management; of these systems were negatively impacted by the (iii) Strengthening environmental governance, and disaster. Further, the damage has been assessed (iv) Investments in the fisheries sector. Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 49 Climate and Disaster Risk Management Libya is exposed to a multitude of natural hazards, Building systems and capacities should be central and climate change contributes to more intense to all interventions. Specific climate and DRM and/or frequent hydro-meteorological events. reform needs are detailed in the sector chapter, Given the complex country context, climate and but in summary include: review of existing plans disaster shocks have the potential to adversely affect and strategies for DRM management; repairing critical sectors- including water, agriculture, energy, and upgrading equipment for hydro-meteorological and health, and exacerbate tensions over access to observation, real-time monitoring and forecasting; scarce resources and threaten social cohesion.  developing and strengthening capabilities for early warning and early action; feasibility studies The need to strengthen the country’s disaster and for grey and green-blue infrastructure for flood climate risk management policies and systems protection; upgrading equipment and facilities amounts to US$ 27.7 million (LYD 135 million). for emergency response and strengthening Apart from one private hydrological station damaged capacities for response and recovery; developing by the flood, no additional reports were received preparedness and emergency response plans in regarding damages to buildings and equipment that pilot cities; organizing community level awareness- could potentially hinder weather forecasting and raising campaigns on disaster risk management flood warning capacity. Nevertheless, the floods and climate change; developing detailed flood risk shed light on the criticality of promoting disaster and maps, risk-informed urban development plans and climate risk resilience in Libya’s recovery trajectory. emergency plans in most-at-risk cities; reforming Needs fall into three main types i) reinforcing the the building code, developing resilient building institutional and regulatory framework for disaster standards for infrastructure and incorporating and climate risk management; ii) improving hydro- climate considerations into infrastructure and land meteorological services, early warning systems use planning. These measures could be considered (EWS), disaster preparedness and response, and while developing a comprehensive DRM and Climate iii) improving climate and disaster risk knowledge. Change Adaptation Strategy for Libya. Social Sustainability and Inclusion The floods in Libya have wrought widespread Urgent actions proposed include dismantling devastation, impacting nearly 250,000 people barriers obstructing the participation of the most and leading to the displacement of 44,800, vulnerable in consultations, establishing accessible culminating in a complex humanitarian crisis. The complaint mechanisms for cases of Gender-based plight of IDPs and affected communities requires violence (women, men, and children) and human a prioritized focus on their needs, including access trafficking, amplifying preventive and responsive to safe drinking water and essential services. The initiatives against violence against women, children, disaster has heightened risks of violence against and men, fortifying protective measures for children, women and men, emphasizing the importance of registering and supporting unaccompanied children, monitoring and addressing risks. The impact on and methodically addressing the needs of persons children’s safety, particularly their vulnerability to with disabilities in response efforts. Despite data malnutrition and violence needs to be addressed gaps, this report underscores the critical importance as well. The additional challenges faced by persons of adopting an inclusive lens to inform and guide with disabilities are a testimony to the immediate recovery activities. provision of assistive devices and support. It is also important to emphasize the imperative of an inclusive response strategy that specifically caters to the nuanced needs of vulnerable groups and implements robust measures to strengthen protection and support systems. 50 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings SUMMARY OF SECTORS RECOVERY STRATEGIES Sectors Recovery Strategies Housing • Homeowner-based recovery strategies: This strategy focuses on rehabilitating partly damaged houses and constructing new houses in a modular manner, depending on housing typology. • Layered programmatic housing recovery approach: The recovery strategy prioritizes the needs of affected families, particularly the most vulnerable ones. • Consideration of fiscal burden: The strategy considers the costs of reconstruction and designs subsidies in a way that allows for mass reconstruction programs. • Risk-informed urban planning: The strategy emphasizes the importance of preparing risk-informed urban plans or concept level instruments. • Formalization of land rights: The housing reconstruction program provides an opportunity to formalize land rights in areas where they are not yet established. • Connection to basic urban services: Before families can move back into their homes, housing units need to be connected to basic urban services such as electricity and water. • Sequencing of recovery needs: This includes improving housing accessibility, livelihoods, and dignity of affected families, improving access to basic services, and enhancing disaster risk reduction. Education • Prompt reopening of schools: The top priority is to reopen schools as soon as possible which requires urgent reconstruction and rehabilitation of damaged schools and education facilities. • Support for students dealing with trauma: This includes integrating psychosocial well-being within schools and implementing catch-up programs for affected students. • Coordination of reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts: This involves integrating psychosocial support, providing trainings to teachers, and implementing catch-up programs. • Support for schools with displaced students: Students from severely damaged or non-operational schools are encouraged to enroll in other schools in their areas. Support should be extended to these schools, including the provision of temporary learning spaces and additional teachers. • BBB approach: The recovery plans sector should incorporate a vision for BBB from the outset including prioritizing resilient education infrastructure, enhancing education quality, and integrating climate resilience measures. • Catch-up programs for learning setbacks: This involves recruiting and training teachers and creating educational materials. • Psychosocial support for students and teachers: Long-term planning should incorporate disaster resilience in the education sector, including disaster risk management and emergency response education and training. Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 51 Sectors Recovery Strategies Health Short-term priorities: • Restoration of essential health services: The immediate focus is on restoring essential health services in functional and partially functional facilities. • Provision of medical supplies and vaccines: Ensuring a reliable supply chain of medicines, particularly for chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs), and restoring the vaccine supply chain and cold chain equipment in facilities. • Campaigns for disease prevention and health promotion: Investing in campaigns for vector control, water quality testing, and treatment to prevent infectious and waterborne diseases. • Repair of minimally damaged health facilities and replacement of medical equipment: Repairing facilities with partial damage and replacing damaged medical equipment to restore full functionality. Identifying opportunities for energy-efficient practices and adopting green and resilient building design principles. • Interim services for locations with limited access to facilities: Identifying facilities with limited health staff and locations with limited access to facilities and providing interim services. • Mental health and psychosocial support (MHPSS) services: Establishing MHPSS services to address the immediate mental health needs of the affected population. Medium to long-term priorities: • Systematic needs assessment for reconstruction: Conducting needs assessments prior to the reconstruction of destroyed and damaged health facilities. Prioritizing investments based on beneficiary population, distance from the closest facility, and reduction in out-of-pocket expenditures. Incorporating climate resilience and energy-efficient practices in facility design. • Strengthening medicine and vaccine procurement and supply chain: Developing clear procurement guidelines and a digital supply chain system to manage medicine stockouts and ensure transparency. • Upskilling human resources: Reskilling and upskilling health workers to align with country-level needs. Addressing the uneven distribution of health workers and addressing shortages in key specialties. • Strengthening emergency care and pandemic preparedness: Building capacity in public institutions and personnel to manage emergencies and respond to climate change-related risks and infectious diseases. • Strengthening primary healthcare (PHC) facilities: Enhancing PHC facilities to provide essential services and support continued care for patients requiring rehabilitation services. Strengthening PHCs’ readiness to address climate change vulnerabilities and provide basic healthcare needs. • Strengthening health information systems: Improving the availability and quality of health sector data through routine health information and surveillance systems. Introducing digital patient records and conducting periodic surveys to assess disease burden. • Engaging the private sector: Actively collaborating with the private sector to achieve universal health coverage. Exploring collaboration opportunities for specialized medical care and diagnostics, addressing gaps without high out-of-pocket expenditures for patients. 52 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings Sectors Recovery Strategies Cultural Short-term recovery: Heritage • Emergency measures: Implement urgent actions such as shoring, propping, sheltering, and structural reinforcements to protect cultural properties from further damage or collapse. • Emergency management and conservation: Carry out measures to document the extent of damage, identify areas at risk of collapse, and ensure proper storage of artifacts. • Repair and restoration: Repair cultural properties to restore their function and ensure preservation, particularly for sites regularly accessed by local communities. • Service delivery: Restore fundamental services provided by cultural properties and provide technical assistance to local authorities and professionals for emergency response and governance. Medium-term recovery: • Infrastructure reconstruction: Focus on repairing cultural properties to restore function and integrate them into the urban fabric of the city. Continue with protective measures such as shoring, propping, and evacuation. • Management and conservation: Carry out further management and conservation measures and inventories as excavations continue. • Technical assistance: Re-establish and strengthen governance arrangements and technical capacities of institutions and professionals involved in cultural heritage protection. Revise and enforce legal measures to prevent future demolition of cultural heritage. Develop a disaster risk management (DRM) strategy for cultural heritage, including emergency preparedness and response. Agriculture • The recovery plan directly addresses the needs of affected farming and livestock households and communities, while working with the government to strengthen national systems and contribute to stability, peace, and resilience. • Replanting of annual crops will be done through a cash transfer modality, allowing farming households to select inputs such as crop species and fertilizer. • Perennial trees that have lost their fruits will also be addressed through a similar package, including land preparation. • Replacement of dead animals will be based on a cash transfer approach, allowing beneficiaries to select the preferred type of animal from local sources. • A vaccination campaign will be carried out to strengthen herds indirectly affected by floods, targeting areas with high epidemiological pressure or animals to be used for restocking. • Training on SMART agriculture will provide knowledge on climate adaptation and innovative techniques for more commercially oriented agriculture. • A field assessment is needed to estimate the costs for the reconstruction or rehabilitation of damaged infrastructures, buildings, equipment, and machinery. • The most vulnerable households, especially women and youth-headed households, will be prioritized based on time-bound activities, reducing further losses, value for money, number of beneficiaries, availability of inputs, and preparatory work. • Recovery interventions include in-kind assistance, cash transfers, and services provided by specific departments of the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock. • Localization principle should be applied to ensure ownership and long-term sustainability of the recovery process by local partners. • Linking business with agricultural activities can create employment opportunities and improve food security, requiring the identification of climate-resilient agricultural production systems, training in new technologies, and facilitated access to credit and institutional support. • Communication campaigns are carried out through institutional networks, websites, and social networks to provide information on recovery operations and ensure transparency. Progress reports and financial updates are required from implementing actors. Summary of RDNA Sector Findings 53 Sectors Recovery Strategies Financial • The key short-term priority in the financial sector is to repair and rebuild damaged bank branches Sector to restore financial services. • Constraints and impaired functioning of the financial sector will hinder reconstruction and recovery efforts if not addressed, especially in the most affected area of Derna. • Reunification of the CBL and support for all financial institutions regardless of location are crucial for stability and integrity of the financial sector. • In the immediate-to-short-term, emergency financing support should be targeted at households and businesses impacted by the floods, including rebuilding housing units and supporting viable businesses. • Technical support and engagement with the insurance sector are needed to settle claims and address solvency issues. • Medium-term recovery requires strengthening the anti-money laundering and counterterrorism financing framework, ensuring adequate bank capitalization, reopening the credit registry, and promoting digital transformation and green finance. • Diversification of financial offerings beyond banking would improve financial intermediation and inclusion. Energy • The priority in the short term is to repair electricity transmission substations to restore reliable electricity service in all affected areas. • In the longer term, the focus should be on closing the gap in available generation capacity by resuming delayed power plant construction and addressing overhaul and maintenance requirements. • Policy framework improvements should aim at improving financial sustainability by reducing subsidies on fossil fuel tariffs for electricity generation, promoting energy efficiency, and renewable energy development. • The recovery process should follow the BBB principle, ensuring that facilities are reconstructed to meet modern standards of safety and reliability, including the ability to withstand severe weather events. Transport • The recovery strategy for Libya’s transport sector focuses on objectives such as infrastructure recovery, institutional capacity enhancement, climate resilience, efficiency improvement, and inclusive and multimodal transport promotion. • The strategy emphasizes resilient infrastructure, technological integration, and sustainable transport modes. • It highlights the importance of effective project management, regulatory frameworks, workforce development, and creating an enabling environment for private sector engagement through Public- Private Partnerships (PPP). • Technical studies, climate resilience assessments, feasibility studies, and capacity building are crucial for good planning and implementation in the transport sector recovery process. Water& • The first year of recovery in the water and sanitation sector requires restoration and rehabilitation Sanitation of infrastructure such as storage systems, water pumping stations, wastewater treatment facilities, and Water and WASH administration buildings. Resource • Flood risk management involves considering hazard, exposure, and vulnerability through a Management combination of structural and non-structural measures, including dam reconstruction, floodwalls, floodplain zoning, land-use planning, and education and awareness campaigns. • Early recovery needs include providing semi-permanent and intermediate structures for water and sanitation support, conducting dam safety assessments, and repairing damaged distribution systems. • Short to medium-term recovery and reconstruction needs involve providing water distribution networks, drainage, and sewerage systems, upgrading sector facilities, and strengthening institutional arrangements for sustainable water supply and sanitation services. ICT • The recovery strategy for the ICT sector needs to address vulnerabilities and improve resilience to natural shocks. • The repair and upgrade of partially damaged towers should be completed to ensure climate and disaster resilience. • Structural reforms, private sector resource mobilization, and the adoption of a national broadband plan are important for the long-term development of the telecom sector. 54 Summary of RDNA Sector Findings Sectors Recovery Strategies Municipal • The recovery investment needs for the municipal service sector are estimated based on the cost of Services repairs, reconstruction, service provision, and technical support. • Sequencing of investment needs involves restoring 80% of partly damaged assets in the short term and the rest over the medium and long terms. Around 20% of destroyed assets could be reconstructed in the short term. • The recovery strategy should address institutional limitations, clarify fiscal and functional responsibilities, and ensure effective and sustainable provision of municipal services. Prototyping digital municipal services and exploring alternative communication approaches should also be considered. Social • The Libya floods have had differentiated impacts on vulnerable groups, including migrants, women, Sustainability children, and persons with disabilities. and Inclusion • Response and rehabilitation efforts must prioritize the needs of all, particularly the most vulnerable, and adopt an inclusive and responsive approach. • Urgent measures include reducing limitations and barriers for the most vulnerable to participate in consultations, establishing complaint mechanisms for gender-based violence cases, strengthening protection against human trafficking, scaling up preventive and response activities for violence against women and men, and strengthening protection mechanisms for children. • It is important to register and provide essential support to unaccompanied minors and account for the needs of people with disabilities in all phases of response efforts. Governance • Unaddressed pre-flood weaknesses in public financial management (PFM) can hinder the and Public effectiveness and transparency of the recovery and reconstruction process. Institutions • Technical assistance and capacity building interventions are proposed to ensure a transparent and accountable reconstruction process. • Urgent measures include reducing barriers for participation, establishing complaint mechanisms for gender-based violence cases, strengthening protection against human trafficking, and improving transparency in managing reconstruction funds. • Other proposed measures include improving the publication of decisions and reporting, designing accountable intergovernmental fiscal transfers, integrated strategic planning, digitalization of financial management and payments, placing all public sector funds into the treasury single account, strengthening post-audit capability, and conducting a post-disaster PFM review. Climate and Aligning with the strategic priorities of the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, the recovery Disaster Risk strategy outlines a comprehensive approach spanning four key areas: understanding disaster risk, Management strengthening disaster risk governance, investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience, and enhancing disaster preparedness for effective response and BBB in recovery, rehabilitation, and reconstruction. • In the short to medium-term, the recovery strategy focuses on three main objectives: (I) Reinforcing the institutional and regulatory framework for climate and disaster risk management; (ii) Enhancing government and community disaster preparedness and response capacities, and (iii) Improving climate and disaster risk knowledge. © Seraj Elhouni/Shutterstock.com 55 FORWARD LOOK: INTERNATIONAL GOOD PRACTICES, LESSONS LEARNT AND OPTIONS FOR DISASTER RECOVERY IMPLEMENTATION 56 FORWARD LOOK The RDNA provides a solid basis for identifying and that help to leverage direct humanitarian and quantifying recovery needs. Post-disaster cases have recovery impacts in the shortest time. Case studies shown that meeting recovery needs must go beyond indicate that housing, livelihoods, and infrastructure simply conducting a post-disaster assessment. sectors often take precedence over other sectors The effective and efficient implementation of when recovery programs are planned. the recovery needs and interventions identified in this report requires the design, development Some of the commonly used indicators for prioritizing and operationalization of a well-coordinated, sectors using the inter-sectoral prioritization multi-sectormmulti-stakeholder, consultative, process include: (i) potential for direct and widest and inclusive platform for recovery planning, humanitarian impact; (ii) pro-poor, pro-vulnerable, programming, and management. This process will and gender-sensitive agendas; (iii) potential to require government leadership and coordination generate sustainable livelihoods; (iv) balance between for recovery policy-making and financing, as well public and private sector recovery; (v) balance as localized decision-making and involvement in between physical infrastructure reconstruction recovery planning and implementation. Importantly, and less visible recovery (such as capacity building collaboration with civil society, and grassroots and governance); (vi) restoration and rebuilding of organizations, and international development critical infrastructure and services36. Interestingly, partners will be key. To this end, many lessons can the application of these indicators makes more be learned from global good practices that provide sense at the intervention level as compared to the the institutional, financing, policy, prioritization, and sectoral level. They could be calibrated across implementation frameworks and arrangements interventions within each sector more efficiently as for ensuring coherent, coordinated, sustainable, compared to prioritizing between sectors depending and resilient disaster recovery across all affected on two necessary conditions; granularity in recovery sectors of the economy. data and participation of local stakeholders in the prioritization processes through inclusive strategies Adopting a Disaster Recovery Framework (DRF) using viable communication platforms. aligned with international good practices would support the recovery of the Libyan communities Recovery management. Lessons from international affected by the floods in an accountable, inclusive, experience indicate that the following roles and efficient, effective, fast, and resilient manner. responsibilities should be fulfilled to ensure that The framework described in this section is not recovery is well-managed: prescriptive nor does it detail sectoral or area- based recovery plans. Instead, it puts forward • Assessment of damages, losses, and recovery options based on examples of international good needs (the RDNA); practice from other disaster recovery contexts, • Planning, programming, and policy development allowing national authorities to determine the best (an overall recovery plan and, often, detailed recovery path.. Some examples of good practices sectoral recovery plans as well as supporting on recovery need prioritization, and the institutional, policies); implementation, and financing arrangements for • Resource mobilization and financial management recovery are summarized in this section. of recovery funds; • Capacity building to manage the recovery process Prioritizing recovery activities. A review of both within and outside of government; experience with disaster recovery suggests that, • Coordination to avoid duplication, maximize while some recovery planning initiatives did not synergies, target priority areas, groups and undertake systematic prioritization exercises, sectors and facilitate the flow of information; others launched inter-sectoral prioritization through • Communications of recovery timetables and a rigorous methodology under which sectors objectives, procedures, and feedback from are prioritized first and then key inter-sectoral beneficiaries; interventions are prioritized based on stakeholder • Monitoring and evaluation to measure consultations. Some of these recovery frameworks implementation progress, assess quality, track determined the priority sectors based on a set of finances, and identify gaps in financing and/or indicators. Then they identified sectoral interventions spatial coverage; and, 36 GFDRR (2020), Disaster Recovery Framework Guide, Revised Guide, March 2020, p 35. FORWARD LOOK 57 • Implementation of recovery activities, which body to lead the recovery while using existing requires capacity for financial management, implementation capacity, as was done in Chile procurement and contracting. after the 2010 earthquake, and the strengthening of decentralized institutions to manage recovery, A global review of institutional arrangements for usually at the state/provincial level as is done in India. disaster recovery suggests that either of the following three basic models can be adopted depending on the Model 2: Establish a new agency. This option country context: creates a single lead implementing agency. Key characteristics are: • Strengthen and coordinate existing institutions or line ministries to lead reconstruction; • The agency envisions, strategizes, plans, • Establish a new institution to manage recovery coordinates, and may even partially implement and, the overall multisectoral reconstruction program; • Use a hybrid approach to create a new unit within • The creation of a new institution may be desirable or above existing governmental agencies. in situations in which existing government agencies are unlikely to be able to coordinate and The decision to implement a centralized (national implement a high number of additional projects government-led), decentralized (provincial, state, at increased speed while sustaining their routine or local government-led), or hybrid approach public services; and to recovery (shared authority, planning, and • Resources for this option are often brought implementation across multiple levels of in from other relevant agencies through government) should be considered carefully. In secondments, private sector consultants, short- all cases, a lead governmental body, whether an term assignments, and financial recoupment agency, a ministry, or a high-level group, will always arrangements. need to have an overarching level of control and the responsibility for coordinating and overseeing multi- There are two variants of this model: the new agency sector, multi-governmental and multiorganizational can be created with a built-in end-date, i.e., a set recovery processes. Clarity about who is leading and period to implement the recovery as was the case how different levels of government will coordinate with Indonesia’s tsunami recovery agency, or for an their efforts must be part of any set of institutional indefinite period as an agency that will be responsible arrangements for recovery. for implementing all future disaster recovery as was the case in Serbia following the 2014 floods. Model 1: Strengthen and coordinate existing institutions. This option depends on establishing Model 3: Hybrid approach. A third option increasingly an institutional arrangement by which individual used by governments is a hybrid institutional model. line ministries and/or decentralized authorities The salient features of this arrangement are: work independently to manage recovery, and to supervise and implement projects, in their sectors • An existing government structure is strengthened or geographic areas. The key features are: through the creation of a single unit, department or external commission dedicated to the recovery; • A high-level coordination mechanism or ministry • The unit provides overarching central guidance is used to set policies, establish an action plan, and support services to keep the reconstruction assess progress, and resolve jurisdictional program on its planned course. It is the single issues; point of coordination of national and international • Existing capacities of line ministries and/ stakeholders; or local authorities are used for planning and • It is responsible for ensuring the inclusion of line implementation (they can be strengthened as ministries, local authorities, the private sector, needed); and and civil society in all phases of the recovery. It • Line ministries and/or local authorities are can work with local governments and NGOs to accountable to a central coordination body delegate implementation responsibilities; and, or ministry for planning, following common • It does not plan or implement individual recovery guidelines, using recovery funds, reporting on projects or programs. progress, and resolving administrative disputes. The hybrid option ensures relatively quick delivery There are two variations of this model – the of reconstruction deliverables and meeting targets. establishment of a central government coordination There are two variants of this option: the internal 58 FORWARD LOOK Project Implementation Unit, such as the one Legal and policy requirements. A DRF usually set up in Turkey following the 1999 earthquake, requires some legal arrangements to facilitate the and the external international commission and implementation of the framework. This could include reconstruction fund established in Haiti after the legislation and/or administrative rules to enable the 2010 earthquake. functioning of a recovery agency, amended roles and responsibilities of other recovery actors within Project cycle and decision-making procedures. government and/or revised land use planning or The project cycle management should ensure that procurement procedures. New policies may also projects are designed to meet recovery needs, need to be developed to, for example, establish who projects within the same sector are well-coordinated is eligible to receive support for rebuilding houses and the project portfolio is consistent with the or businesses and the role of local versus national recovery framework. For a recovery project cycle, authorities in planning, implementing, and assessing there is a need for transparent and rapid decision- recovery programs. making procedures to determine which investments will be financed and how they will be sequenced. To Staffing. Staffing for planning and managing the do so, the following questions need to be answered: recovery process can be challenging in disaster- affected countries. Governmental authorities may • Who can develop and propose a program for need to be able to call on additional expertise financing? to respond to recovery needs in a wide range of • What criteria will be used to evaluate project sectors. They may also need to increase their staff proposals? temporarily orlong-term. If the government is unable • How are decisions made to proceed with a to meet the increased professional and technical recovery project and who is involved in the requirements for recovery over both the short and decision-making process? longer terms, expertise may be sought elsewhere to direct programmatic activities. Indonesia and New Coordination mechanisms. International good Zealand have pursued successful approaches to practice models suggest that multi-layered recovery scaling up staffing for post-disaster recovery. coordination mechanisms help ensure coherent and well-coordinated recovery programming and Communications. The objective of the DRF’s implementation: communications and outreach efforts will be to primarily support the framework’s operational goal, • Between line ministries involved in recovery; not just to communicate internally within government • Between the central and local governments; and international cooperation partners, but with the • Between the governments and other stakeholders provinces, districts, municipalities, communities, such as the private sector and NGOs; and and private sector. Lessons learned from other • Between governments and international partners. operational contexts demonstrate the importance of strategic communications with all key stakeholders, Ideally, existing coordination mechanisms should be through various media channels (including broadcast used to build on existing relationships and avoid the and social media) with key messages that (i) impact transaction costs of establishing new arrangements. information and data, (ii) increased awareness, (iii) And a consensus-based DRF could serve as an link to feedback loops, and (iv) contribute towards overall reference point and platform for coordination outreach to assist in effectively monitoring and of planning, implementation efforts and financing. evaluating impact. Lessons can be learned from post-disaster communications experiences in Chile Monitoring and accountability. Monitoring and and New Zealand. evaluation systems can be used to track both program implementation and funding. Experience Recovery implementation. International good has shown that governments tend to poorly or simply practice has highlighted that implementation not implement monitoring and evaluation systems arrangements need to be in place to ensure recovery linked to disaster recovery. This is problematic is efficient, accountable, and swift. These include: a) because this means that when recovery programs a robust monitoring and evaluation (M&E) system are not well implemented these may continue to to monitor progress in recovery implementation, run their course instead of being readjusted and identify geographic and sectoral gaps, and enable improved. This also means the misuse of funds mid-course improvements; b) accountability linked to project implementation may go unnoticed. mechanisms such as community participation Likewise, funding gaps may not be identified in time. and empowerment, feedback mechanisms, use of FORWARD LOOK 59 local knowledge, and social accountability tools; sources of financing and the financing gap while also c) data collection and analysis with the help of outlining recovery fund coordination and allocation a third-party monitoring agent to feed into the options as well as mechanisms to manage and M&E system; d) stakeholder engagement and track funds. transparency to give voice to stakeholders in recovery planning, management and evaluation; e) On a concluding note, it is important to emphasize use of rapid procurement mechanisms to accelerate that a DRF is not a detailed action plan for multi- recovery implementation; and (f) deploying options sectoral or area-based recovery. While it is essential for accelerated disbursement to expedite the to have a framework that outlines a vision, priorities, recovery process. institutional options, implementation arrangements, and a financing strategy, it is equally necessary to Recovery financing. A successful recovery requires develop detailed and coordinated sectoral and/or a financing strategy to close the financing gap area-based recovery plans and programs. In this identified by the RDNA. The strategy should be regard, Libya should develop a framework from aligned with a government’s financing commitments which best practice solutions emerge, delivering and constraints while considering the absence of catalytic and sustainable recovery investments. meaningful official development assistance and International partners may accompany and limited prospects for crowding in private capital. contribute to building the capacity of the Libyan A recovery financing strategy would build on the authorities. This collaborative effort will not only quantification of economic costs as estimated by aid the country in bouncing back but also in moving the RDNA, assess recovery budgets, and identify forward with resilience and sustained progress. 60 DETAILED SECTOR ASSESSMENTS © Seraj Elhouni/Shutterstock.com 61 SOCIAL SECTORS 62 Detailed Sector Assessments HOUSING The housing sector in Libya experiences severe were traditional. Since the oil boom, the country shortages both in terms of quantity and quality, has experienced significant urbanization and social particularly in the urban areas. There are institutional behavioral changes resulting in high single-family and technical capacity issues such as a poor rental housing occupancy and changes in housing delivery market, investment risks due to highly controlled mechanisms. These have replaced family-based and varied housing regulatory systems, absence self-housing construction with modern housing of affordable housing and urban land management construction by government and private vendors policies, ambiguous property rights, titling and using modern construction materials and amenities. registry systems, and widespread informal housing In 2006, nearly 58 percent of the households lived in markets operating outside the government permit traditional houses, 20 percent in modern apartments, regime37 are some of the main issues hampering 11 percent in villas, and the rest mostly in precarious housing supply growth in the country. housing. Due to widespread income inequality and the significant influx of migrants and IDPs, a Following the beginning of the conflict in 2011, all large percentage of the urban population could not public-led housing construction programs, which afford expensive houses or rent them, experiencing were the main actors at the time, were halted, leading significant housing accessibility issues.41   to an absence of a realistic affordable housing policy and a passive public housing program. In parallel, Housing affordability for low-income and migrant the housing market has suffered from large-scale populations is constrained by a shortage of affordable damages since 2011 because of the conflict. It was housing, shrinking private sector investments in the reported in 2020 that 30 percent of the housing housing market, and the absence of an affordable stock nationally was damaged, either by conflict housing policy, resulting in the growth of informal or otherwise (e.g., from lack of maintenance), with housing and shanty towns. Nearly 60 percent of the variations across cities, such as an estimated 38 inhabitants experience over-crowding, low building percent in Derna.38 Access to affordable housing and quality, and unaffordability issues, and about 97 basic services are also affected by the inadequate percent are concerned about tenure risks.42 IDPs, fiscal and functional devolution to municipalities who in eastern Libya are mostly located in Benghazi43, under the current institutional arrangements. On represent the largest part of the demand for rental the demand side, commercial institutions finance housing, and are most affected by rising rents. They nearly 38 percent of the formal housing units in are therefore forced to occupy low-quality houses in the country.39 The absence of a decentralized and cities, and nearly 61 percent of them live in houses efficient housing mortgage market accentuates the damaged by conflict.44   housing supply and demand mismatch.   The population of the 20 municipalities affected The country’s housing stock is estimated at 1,596,069 by the disaster is estimated at 1,130,414 people, units in 2023, based on the projected population of constituting nearly 61.3 percent of four affected 7,166,024 people.40 Before the oil boom, most houses districts.45 The housing stock in the 20 disaster- 37 Centre for Affordable Housing, Housing Finance Yearbook, Libya, 2022. 38 REACH, 2020. 39 This estimate is based on the annual growth rate of 1.13 percent over the 2020 estimates provided in the Census Metadata. 40 Flash Appeal- Flood Response, Libya, Sept 2023. 41 Gamal N Sheitbani & Tim Havard, The reasons for shortages in housing in Libya, Research Institute for Built and Human Environment, University of Salford, 2016 https://www.irbnet.de/daten/iconda/CIB_DC26989.pdf · PDF file. 42 OCHA, Libya Humanitarian Aid Overview, 2018. 43 REACH, “Libya: Multi-Sector Needs Assessment, Geneva, 2019. 44 The damaged houses estimates are based on the full count of damaged buildings and the triangulated number of housing units based on the imagery profile of residential densities of these municipalities. 45 Projection of the municipal level population is based on the baseline estimates provided in the World Gazetteer for the year 2011 and the annual population growth rate estimated by the United Nations, Department of Economics and Social Affairs, Population Division, 2022, Projected City Population by the World Population Review, and Housing Occupancy and supply constraints by Gamal N Sheitbani & Tim Havard, (2016), etc. Classifications of damaged housing units into destroyed and partly damaged units are done based the flood intensity model analysis. Detailed Sector Assessments 63 Figure 16: Flooding Intensity in the City of Soussa Source: Assessment team. affected municipalities is estimated at 271,258 Models. Estimates are based on spatial counts units, nearly 78 percent of the total housing stock supplemented by the flood intensity model outputs of the four urban districts before the disaster. The on flood heights and levels of inundation. The flood spatial distribution of the housing stock is skewed. intensity model has classified the housing units into Four of the 20 affected municipalities - Benghazi, Al four categories- high intensity, moderate intensity, Marj, Derna, and Al Bayda - together share nearly low intensity and not-affected. Damaged housing 68 percent of the total stock of the 20 flood-affected units falling in the high and moderate flood intensity municipalities, with nearly 52 percent of the total typologies are grouped into destroyed type, and housing stock in Benghazi.   those falling in the low intensity category are grouped into partially damaged housing units.46 Detailed Assessment of Disaster Effects damage profiles in the major five cities from these municipalities were also conducted. Overall, keeping the Flooding Intensity Model provides conservative Housing damages across the 20 municipalities are results. It is also important to recognize that in estimated based on spatial mapping of buildings the absence of scientific classification of the partly using the 12M Digital Terrain and Flooding Intensity 46 In scientific assessments, damage is classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage is classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. This level of details is not available during the preparation of the RDNA but should be used in the reconstruction phase. 64 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 17: Housing Damage in the City of Soussa Source: Assessment team. damaged units into minor damages (less than 20 and Jabal Al Khadar regions together share nearly percent) and above 20 percent (requiring repairs 73 percent of the total damaged housing units, and retrofitting), the partially damaged estimate nearly 70 percent of the total destroyed units are could be considered as a higher estimate. Similarly, from Derna, followed by Jabal Al Khadar region with in the absence of field-based technical assessment, 30 percent. Due to the high flood intensity in the including the moderate flood intensity typology as Derna municipality, 18.5 percent of the city’s housing part of the destroyed category may also lead to stock was damaged, and six percent was destroyed. overestimates. Although Benghazi municipality did not experience high flood intensity, five percent of its housing stock The total number of housing damage is estimated was impacted by low intensity floods. Because of at 18,838 units, constituting nearly seven percent its high residential density in the flooded areas, it of the total housing stock of the 20 municipalities.47 contributes largely (38 percent) to the total counts The shares of destroyed units and partly damaged of damaged housing over the 20 municipalities. In units are estimated at 17.4 percent (3,280 units) and addition, a review of available reports suggests that 82.6 percent (15,558 units), respectively, of the total the housing conditions of people living in cities and damaged housing units (Table 3). While the Benghazi towns suffered from the conflict and flood.  47 The damaged housing estimates are based on the full count of damaged buildings and the triangulated number of housing units based on the imagery profile of residential densities of these municipalities. Detailed Sector Assessments 65 Table 3: Housing Damage by Municipality Baseline Total Partly Percentage Districts Municipalities  Stock  Damaged   Destroyed  Damaged  Damaged Derna  Derna     21,976      4,067  2,287     1,780  18.51     Al Qubah    4,236  90 1 89   2.12     Umm Arazam     5,302  83 3 80   1.57        Al Qayqab       1,970  47 - 47   2.39     Ra’s Al Hilal      1,098  - - - -    Al Abraq     2,943  11 - 11        0.37  Sub Total     37,524    4,298      2,291           2,007      11.45  Al Marj  Al Marj    10,659    199  - 199        1.87     Sahel Al Jabal    2,920  13 - 13        0.45     Jardas Al Abid     3,818  19 - 19       0.50        Medouar Al Zetoun    5,038  75 - 75           1.49     Al Abyar      16,138     513  15       498      3.18  Sub Total  38,573         819  15   804         2.12  Jabal Al Bayda  11,375    2,213    32       2,181    19.45  Al Akhdar  Shahaat   4,568    67  -       67     1.47        Soussa    3,287      3,122         937              2,185    94.99     Umar Al Mukhtar     2,188    7  -       7    0.32     Wardam       1,662  441  -           441    26.54     Sub Total        23,080    5,850    968  4,882    25.35  Benghazi  Benghazi  139,714    7,190  1  7,189    5.15     Qaminia    7,289  101  -   101    1.39     Suloug    11,698    217  1 216    1.85        Toukara 12,371    363  4   359    2.93  Sub Total    171,073  7,871     6  7,865    4.60  Total     270,250  18,838    3,280  15,558  6.97  Source: Assessment team. 66 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 4: Housing Damage Costs Baseline Damaged Destroyed Partly Damaged Total Damage Total Damage Housing Typologies  Units  Units   Cost (US$)  Cost (US$)  Cost (US$)  Cost-(LYD)  Traditional House  126,895 8,845 41,122,818 62,337,154 103,459,972 497,176,895 Villa  47,256 3,294 33,570,995 94,326,474 127,897,469 614,611,285 Apartment  78,084 5,443 37,325,828 85,766,760 123,092,588 591,521,430 Informal House  18,016 1,256 2,580,346 4,796,957 7,377,303 35,451,629 Total  2,70,250 18,838 114,599,987 247,227,344 361,827,331 1,738,761,239 Notes: (a) Damage cost of partly damaged units is estimated at 40 percent of the unit cost of reconstruction. (b) The conversion rate of LYD to US$ is assumed as US$1=LYD 4.8055. (c) The weighted average house size and cost of construction are assumed as 175 sqm and US$ 200/sqm, differentiated across the housing typologies.  Source: Assessment team. Housing damage costs are estimated at two levels, losses accurately. Since some of these parameters first by housing typologies and second across the are based on provisional and city-level studies, the 20 municipalities. It is important to recognize that housing sector economic loss is estimated based damage costs are based on reported values of on reported rental market parameters.49 In the average housing size and average construction costs absence of information on the public expenditure collected through real estate portals, due to lack of for the housing sector in terms of housing subsidies, accurate numbers.48 Due to the large variation in mechanisms of provision of public and social rental costs, a conservative number of US$ 200/sqm has housing, land and property registration systems been used, when considering a weighted share of and land tax collection, it is assumed that the public the four housing typologies.11 Since damage costs sector revenue loss could be 0.5 percent of the asset are based on projected units for housing typologies, value.50 If the post-disaster rehabilitation assistance the estimates are based on disaggregated data planned by the government entails providing rental and are therefore more reliable. The total damage subsidies to families with destroyed houses, the total cost is estimated at US$ 361.8 million (LYD 1,738.7 loss to the government could increase to US$ 2.6 million) (Table 4). However, since the specific shares million (LYD 12.5 million). The main housing sector of informal housing typologies in the damage economic loss is due to the loss of assets incurred estimates are unknown, these estimates across the by families during the flood. Since most household various housing typologies shall be considered on assets are not retrievable and reusable due to the upper end.  continued inundation14, the share of assets lost due to the flood is pegged at 25 percent of the asset In the absence of granular data on average housing value.51 The economic loss is estimated at US$ 65.8 rentals and the share of the housing stock in the million (LYD 316.2 million) at the replacement value rental market, it is difficult to estimate economic prices prior to the disaster (Table 5).  48 Property Prices in Libya (numbeo.com). Based on the data available for Benghazi, Derna, and Al Bayda cities, the average cost of a one-bedroom apartment is in the range of US$ 350 to 580/ sqm in Derna and Benghazi or a conservative 250 US$/sqm across all cities for an average size of 200 sqm. For a traditional home, the average cost is US$ 150/sqm for an average size of 150 sqm. For a villa, the average cost is US$ 300/sqm for an average size of 250 sqm. For an informal house, the average cost is US$ 100/sqm for an average size of 100 sqm. Since there is a significant variation across cities and housing typology, the construction cost is assumed as US$ 200/ sqm and the weighted average house size is assumed as 175 sqm across the four types of houses. 49 Property Prices in Libya (numbeo.com). Data on rents are not available for all cities. Average monthly rent ranges from US$ 83 for a one-bedroom apartment in the periphery of Al Bayda to US$ 417 for a 3-bedroom apartment in the city center of Benghazi. Hence a conservative rent of US$ 150 has been used to balance the share of Benghazi with smaller cities and factoring different household sizes and socioeconomic profiles. 50 Based on these assumptions the average annual revenue yield of government from the housing sector could be US$ 175 per housing unit. This number shall be reviewed during the recovery planning process. 51 Housing profile studies indicate that household asset value is positively related to the income level and value of the property. Detailed Sector Assessments 67 Table 5: Housing Economic Loss Loss of Rent Revenue Household Rent Loss to Expenses to Loss to Total Housing Total Housing Housing Typologies  Assets  Homeowners  Tenants  Government  Loss (US$)  Loss (LYD)  Traditional House  21,488,469 1,547,280 2,680,198 509,035 26,224,982 126,024,151 Villa  942,108 294,840 17,661 44,137 1,298,746 6,241,124 Apartments  17,424,866 2,106,000 1,133,108 581,870 21,245,844 102,096,903 Informal House  13,517,288 2,833,556 6,452 674,095 17,031,391 81,844,348 Total  53,372,731 6,781,676 3,837,419 1,809,137 65,800,963 316,206,526 Source: Assessment team. Table 6: Housing Damage Costs  Total Damage  Total Loss  Total Damage Cost Total Damage Cost Districts Municipalities  Cost (US$) (US$)  + Loss (US$)  + Loss (LYD)  Derna Derna 98,682,286 25,787,769 124,470,055 598,140,848 Al Qubah 1,213,945 168,909 1,382,855 6,645,308 Umm Arazam 1,147,257 167,259 1,314,516 6,316,906 Al Qayqab 618,675 81,881 700,556 3,366,522 Ra’s Al Hilal - - - - Al Abraq 144,796 19,164 163,960 787,909 Sub Total 101,806,959.16 26,224,982 128,031,941.22 615,257,494 Al Marj Al Marj 2,087,168 290,793 2,377,961 11,427,292 Sahel Al Jabal 136,348 18,997 155,344 746,506 Jardas Al Abid 199,277 27,764 227,042 1,091,048 Medouar Al Zetoun 786,621 109,595 896,216 4,306,768 Al Abyar 5,617,968 851,597 6,469,566 31,089,498 Sub Total 8,827,383 1,298,746 10,126,129 48,661,112 Jabal Al Al Bayda 36,022,325 4,805,189 40,827,514 196,196,619 Akhdar Shahaat 1,067,694 136,228 1,203,922 5,785,449 Soussa 72,144,719 15,393,530 87,538,249 420,665,057 Umar Al Mukhtar 111,550 14,233 125,783 604,450 Wardam 7,027,660 896,664 7,924,325 38,080,342 Sub Total 116,373,949 21,245,844 137,619,793 661,331,917 Benghazi Benghazi 123,047,556 15,515,006 138,562,562 665,862,393 Qaminia 1,728,173 217,818 1,945,991 9,351,459 Suloug 3,732,544 475,813 4,208,357 20,223,261 Toukara 6,310,766 822,754 7,133,520 34,280,130 Sub Total 134,819,040 17,031,391 151,850,430 729,717,243 Total 361,827,331 65,800,963 427,628,294 2,054,967,765 Source: Assessment team. 68 Detailed Sector Assessments The aggregate damage and loss are estimated at US$ impacts would be significant among low-income 427.6 million (LYD 2.055 million) at the replacement and migrant families due to the reduced housing value prices prior to the disaster. Distribution of affordability coupled with likely reduced earnings total damage and loss across the 20 municipalities due to economic disruptions. In addition, the disaster indicates that Benghazi and Derna share nearly 65 may further exacerbate the exclusion of vulnerable percent of damage and loss (Table 6).52   and marginalized communities due to the decrease in housing affordability and contribute to fissures Linking Effects to Human in social cohesion at the local level. Following the flooding, it is estimated that nearly 250,000 people Impacts needed humanitarian and shelter assistance. 24.5 percent of people in need were reported from Al- With about 1.2 percent of the housing stock destroyed Marj, nearly 29.7 percent from Al Jabal Al Khadar, in the 20 municipalities, or an estimated 3,280 units, and 11.2 percent and 24.3 percent were reported it is estimated that 10,718 people have lost their from Darna and Benghazi, respectively.54   homes and have no permanent shelter. International experience suggests that households impacted by partial housing damage will remain in their homes Recovery Needs and Strategy while those with destroyed or unfit-for-living housing The housing recovery investment needs are will move out. Many of these households will try to estimated based on a few key cost parameters. rent, while those with relatives will seek temporary Some of the key factors considered for estimating shelter. the recovery investment needs are inflation (financial contingency), physical continency, security Over the years, the average household size in Libya premium55, BBB technologies for climate resilient has become smaller. This has increased pressure construction, and insurance premiums as part of on the housing market, which historically had a the investment risk transfer mechanism.56 The total shortage of two percent.53 The floods affected recovery investment need of the housing sector, seven percent of housing stock in the municipalities excluding financial support for technical assistance, affected and worsened the post-revolution and is estimated at US$ 470.3 million (YLD 2,260.3 million) conflict-driven housing problem. In addition, unclear (Table 7), and the total investment requirements rental policy and limited private sector investments including the cost of providing technical support in the residential rental market further exacerbated for designing the recovery plan is estimated at US$ housing stresses. This will limit how safe houses 517.4 million (LYD 2,486.4 million) (Table 8). Since the may absorb post-flood shocks. The housing cost of debris removal is included in the environment shortage created by the floods will make houses sector assessment, this cost is excluded from the less affordable to low-income families, migrants, housing recovery investment need estimation. It is and IDPs. further assumed that the cost of providing shelters to displaced families and those with destroyed houses Housing affordability will also likely be further will be covered in the humanitarian assistance impacted by the broader socioeconomic impact program (see social protection chapter). Hence, of the disaster. The rental market may face price this cost is not included in the estimated housing increases due to demand, as will the construction recovery investment needs. sector, which will also experience labor and material availability constraints. While economic losses To enable sustainable recovery of the housing sector to the Housing sector will affect flood victims in and improve housing and delivery mechanisms in terms of their quality of life, the socioeconomic 52 The damage mapping exercise has tried to avoid double counting of the conflict-affected damaged houses. 53 Gamal N Sheitbani & Tim Havard, ibid. 54 OCHA, Libya Humanitarian Aid Overview, 2018. 55 Without a detailed security assessment, the cost premium for security risk is based on the assumption of contracting security teams, including surveillance equipment and networking systems, etc., during field-level assessments, recovery project design, and implementation. In the event the security premium is included in the procurements of goods and services, the premium shall be adjusted accordingly. It is also possible that international companies charge higher premiums for security risk mitigations than domestic companies. 56 The investment multiplier of 1.3 is based on the assumed premium rates for inflation and physical contingencies, BBB, security premium and insurance-based risk transfer. These premiums shall be reviewed and adjusted during the recovery programming process. Detailed Sector Assessments 69 Table 7: Housing Recovery Needs Total Recovery Short Term Medium/Long-Term Total Recovery Districts Municipalities  Investment Need (US$) Recovery Need (US$)  Recovery Need (US$)  Need  (LYD)  Derna Derna 141,115,669 42,334,701 98,780,968 678,131,345 Al Qubah 1,735,942 520,783 1,215,159 8,342,068 Umm Arazam 1,640,577 492,173 1,148,404 7,883,794 Al Qayqab 884,705 265,412 619,294 4,251,452 Ra’s Al Hilal - - - - Al Abraq 207,059 62,118 144,941 995,021 Sub Total 145,583,952 43,675,185 101,908,766 699,603,679 Al Marj Al Marj 2,984,651 895,395 2,089,256 14,342,739 Sahel Al Jabal 194,977 58,493 136,484 936,963 Jardas Al Abid 284,967 85,490 199,477 1,369,407 Medouar Al 1,124,868 337,461 787,408 5,405,555 Zetoun Al Abyar 8,033,695 2,410,108 5,623,586 38,605,920 Sub Total 12,623,158 3,786,947 8,836,210 60,660,584 Jabal Al Bayda 51,511,925 15,453,578 36,058,348 247,540,557 Al Akhdar Shahaat 1,526,803 458,041 1,068,762 7,337,052 Soussa 103,166,948 30,950,085 72,216,864 495,768,771 Umar Al Mukhtar 159,517 47,855 111,662 766,558 Wardam 10,049,554 3,014,866 7,034,688 48,293,132 Sub Total 166,414,748 49,924,424 116,490,323 799,706,070 Benghazi Benghazi 175,958,006 52,787,402 123,170,604 845,566,195 Gemienis 2,471,287 741,386 1,729,901 11,875,770 Suloug 5,337,539 1,601,262 3,736,277 25,649,542 Toukara 9,024,395 2,707,319 6,317,077 43,366,732 Sub Total 192,791,227 57,837,368 134,953,859 926,458,239 TOTAL 517,413,083 155,223,925 362,189,158 2,486,428,572 Source: Assessment team. 70 Detailed Sector Assessments the flood-hit coastal cities and peri-urban areas of needs and targeting vulnerable families shall be Libya, it is pertinent to formulate a viable housing at the core of such a strategy.   recovery strategy enabling inclusive and objective • Considering the fiscal burden of the recovery prioritization and sequencing of recovery needs and strategy, careful attention to the costs of investments and linking it to risk-informed urban reconstruction and to the design of the subsidy planning. Housing reconstruction should also be will also be important elements to deliver mass seen as an opportunity to build not just safer homes reconstruction programs while serving all but also resilient communities, towns, and cities. In the population categories, including the most this regard, it should be supported by better planning vulnerable, Libyan, and non-Libyan. and development regulations, coordinated service delivery, and stronger capacity of communities In addition, at the operational level, these and government institutions to manage disaster considerations will be essential to the sequencing and climate risks. In the longer term, considering of the strategy to maximize the benefits of the historical housing accessibility challenges reconstruction efforts: experienced by households, the housing recovery strategy should adopt coping measures to address • In an urban setting, due consideration of urban some of the main institutional gaps such as access planning is important to avoid replicating flood to land, unavailable mass housing construction, risks. Where risk-informed urban plans are inefficient rental market, limited affordable housing not available, concept-level instruments shall value chains, a narrow housing mortgage market, be prepared in an emergency phase to identify limited urban planning and development control the areas of reconstruction and those where processes, wide-spread informal property rights, construction should be prohibited. When partially weak technical capacity in government institutions damaged houses are located in protected areas, and low financial capability of Municipal Governments. repairs should not be conducted, and relocation The quantity and quality of housing can be improved should be encouraged. only through a multi-faceted recovery strategy that • Some houses that had been classified as partially addresses not only access to land, materials, and damaged by the flood may, in fact, not be eligible financing but also enables robust private sector for repair because of conflict-related damages participation as a key player in the recovery strategy. and should be fully rebuilt. These houses will be Another area of opportunity will be to involve, identified as part of a detailed enumeration of whenever possible, community-based organizations, housing damage. including community-based mortgage financing • In relation to urban planning requirements, a instruments, particularly among tribal communities. housing reconstruction program can also be an opportunity to regularize land rights when The following considerations are ingredients of the those are not formalized. This is mostly the housing recovery strategy that will likely contribute case in Libyan cities, either because of informal to its efficiency and success, learned from processes or because records have been lost and international experiences:  the land administration system has not yet been modernized. • Homeowner-based recovery strategies are critical • Lastly, the coordination of recovery with service for kickstarting the housing recovery program provision will be needed to sequence construction through effective rehabilitation of partly damaged works but also to ensure that housing units are houses and enabling modular reconstruction of timeously connected to basic urban services new houses. Although this approach may not apply such as water and electricity before families can to all housing categories, it largely addresses return to their homes.  low-income groups who have lost their homes. International experience shows that homeowner Against the background of finite financial resources self-reconstruction, possible for individual and limited technical capacities to design and housing, can help reduce costs and improve the implement a housing recovery program, there is economic recovery of impacted households.  an obvious need to sequence recovery needs.57 • A layered programmatic housing recovery Experiences from many countries suggest (i) approach with inclusive prioritization of recovery improving housing accessibility; (ii) improving livelihoods and dignity of disaster-affected 57 The sequencing of investment needs is based on the assumption that nearly 70 percent of the partly damaged houses will be rehabilitated during the short term and the rest during the medium term. It is also assumed that 10 percent of the destroyed houses will be reconstructed during the short term and the rest in the medium and long term and nearly 60 percent of the technical assistance will be spent during the short term and the rest over the medium and long term. Detailed Sector Assessments 71 Table 8: Sequencing Housing Recovery Investment Medium/ Medium/ Total Recovery Total Recovery Recovery Short Term Short Term Long Term - Long Term - Investment - Investment - Interventions  (US$)  (LYD)  US$  LYD  US$  LYD  Rehabilitation of 224,976,883 1,081,126,413 96,418,664 463,339,891 321,395,548 1,544,466,304 Partly Damaged Houses  Reconstruction of 14,897,998 71,592,331 134,081,984 644,330,977 148,979,983 715,923,307 Destroyed Houses  Technical Supports 28,222,532 135,623,377 18,815,021 90,415,584 47,037,553 226,038,961 for Recovery Planning  Total Recovery 268,097,413 1,288,342,120 249,315,670 1,198,086,452 517,413,083 2,486,428,572 Investment Need  Note: Technical support for scientific damage assessments and preparation of recovery programming are expected to be financed during the short-term recovery phase.  Source: Assessment team. families; (iii) strengthening the technical capacity An essential aspect of the housing recovery framework of stakeholders involved in housing recovery; (iv) is prioritizing needs and sequence investments. While improving access to basic services that make this process should conform to the overall recovery housing habitable; and (v) strengthening disaster risk strategy for the flood-affected regions, one of the first reduction through BBB technologies and building considerations could be to sequence investments practices. to address the rehabilitation of partly damaged houses, which will put a large part of the damaged To effectively apply fact-based indicators, conducting housing stock back into the housing market. Since a detailed enumeration of houses, along with a examining the structural vulnerabilities of the partly comprehensive technical assessment is imperative. damaged houses due to increased piezometric levels Additionally, a meticulous identification of vulnerable in the inundated areas was not possible under this households should be undertaken, especially during assessment, it is assumed that the partly damaged the initial phase when damages are still visibly units will be habitable after repairs and retrofitting. apparent. While certain technical interventions and Housing reconstruction in urban areas with most the restoration of partially affected homes can be multi-story buildings should follow structured urban strategically planned in the immediate and short term planning guidelines, disaster-resilient development (within one year), the primary reconstruction initiatives regulations, energy-efficient construction practices, should be meticulously devised and executed in the and proper property registry and licensing systems. medium and long term (spanning two to three years). This planning is contingent upon the antecedent formulation of risk-informed urban planning, Linkages with Cross-Cutting clarification of land tenure (particularly in relocation Themes areas), and the establishment of BBB standards and value chains. The immediate and short-term phase While housing supply could be sectorized in terms necessitates approximately US$ 268.1 million (LYD of the construction of residential units by the 1,288.3 million). The sequencing of these efforts is an governments and private sector, the level and pattern iterative process, and it should be flexibly designed of housing demand are significantly influenced by and implemented, taking into account the evolving cross-sectoral opportunities and challenges.   political and economic circumstances throughout the recovery implementation plan period, as outlined in Housing affordability is not only determined by Table 8. the disposable income level of households but is also affected by access to land, social and cultural values, vulnerabilities for women and men, and 72 Detailed Sector Assessments conflict-related fragilities. It is suggested that sites, assess soil and drainage patterns, and vulnerability safeguards for women and men develop guidelines to safeguard future risks from applied in internationally assisted housing programs constructing houses in flood-prone areas. Since worldwide, such as registering the reconstructed most cities in Libya are coastal, coastal management houses in the joint names of spouses, etc., should be plans and regulations and the preparation and mainstreamed.  implementation of disaster mitigation-based urban development plans are critical. Housing accessibility issues experienced by many migrants and IDPs due to economic vulnerabilities should be addressed through shelter and public Limitations housing strategies.58  Rental regulations should also Estimation baseline housing stock and extrapolating be reviewed to promote equal access to housing and housing damage is based on tier 1 of data reliability to encourage investments in large and medium- variables, so it is important to recognize the following scale rental housing. limitations. First, while destroyed buildings could be reasonably determined through imagery analysis, Prevailing housing sector limitations can constrain estimations of the number of apartments within recovery efforts and delay implementation. damaged buildings and the number of damaged While housing supply could be improved through units are based on approximate levels of damages, rehabilitation and reconstruction of damaged houses, flood intensity, livability, and housing typologies. and self-construction, it is equally important to Second, due to the large populations in major cities, promote medium-scale or mass housing to address most damage is in Derna, Al-Marj, Al Bayda, and housing shortages. Mass housing development Benghazi. The share of Benghazi is significantly depends on public policies to create an enabling higher than other major cities, although its level of environment for private sector investments. It damage is not as severe as Al-Marj, Derna, and Al should also allow foreign real estate companies Bayda. Accordingly, there is a risk of skewed spatial and local medium-size developers to participate distribution while extrapolating the Benghazi damage but also contribute to implementing effective land units. Third, the disaster damage cost is based on management systems and resolving land ownership the assumed average built-up area and unit costs of and titling issues.  construction of traditional houses, villas, apartments, and informal houses. Considering the large share of Climate-resilient house construction warrants a traditional houses with varied physical attributes holistic habitat development approach to building and social clustering, the damage cost estimate climate-proof and energy-efficient houses. Energy- of traditional houses could be tentative. Fourth, in efficient housing construction is particularly the absence of verifiable data on rental housing, it important in countries such as Libya, which depends is assumed that the share of rented housing could on fossil fuels, although solar power could contribute be lower. This is due to institutional constraints in to energy-efficient housing. the rental market, unaffordable housing for low- income families, and unequal access to rental While BBB technologies and practices may support homes between income groups. These limitations resilient housing construction, it is also important are expected to be reviewed during the recovery to employ disaster vulnerability mapping of housing planning process.  58 According to the OCHA-DTM study, nearly 890,000 people require humanitarian and shelter assistance in the country. Detailed Sector Assessments 73 EDUCATION Pre-Storm and Context between the curriculum and labor market needs.62 Even prior to 2011, the Global Competitiveness Report Baseline ranked Libya 128th for primary education and 138th for secondary education out of 139 countries.63 Despite free and compulsory education at the primary and lower secondary levels, Libya has experienced a Assessment of Disaster Effects: Damage and Loss consistent decline in school enrollment since 2011. Estimates UNICEF estimates that 200,000 to 300,000 children have been impacted by the ongoing crisis in Libya.59 This assessment covers 974 education facilities In 2021, 49 percent of surveyed households with located across 20 municipalities. It includes primary school-aged children reported that at least one child schools (162), secondary schools (130), schools per household was not enrolled, or no children were providing both primary and secondary education enrolled in formal school.60 (497) and universities and colleges (185). Out of the 974 education facilities assessed, 15.9 percent have Prior to the floods, prolonged periods of armed been partially damaged, and 3.8 percent have been conflict disrupted the continuity of education and destroyed.64 In total, 97 schools combining primary resulted in widespread damage to the infrastructure and secondary education (19.5 percent) were partially of educational institutions, leaving 245 schools either damaged or destroyed, followed by 45 secondary damaged or destroyed, with 74 percent of schools schools (34.6 percent), 37 primary schools (22.8 lacking access to safe drinking water. An estimated percent) and 13 colleges/universities (7 percent). 159,030 children require humanitarian education support.61 The aggregate measures of damage mask a wide variation across municipalities. In Derna, which is Additionally, the Covid-19 pandemic exacerbated the most affected municipality in terms of the share existing challenges. In June 2021, all schools and of schools destroyed, 48.4 percent of schools were universities had to be suspended to limit the spread destroyed, and 38.7 percent were partially damaged of the virus. During the following school year by the floods. In Soussa, all schools were affected: (2021/2022), 13 percent of assessed households 16.7 percent were destroyed, and 83.3  percent reportedly had at least one child who had dropped were partially damaged. Other severely affected out of school. The two most cited reasons for dropout municipalities in terms of the proportion of schools were school closures due to the Covid-19 pandemic being affected include Jardas Al Abid, where 33.3 and households’ inability to afford education percent of schools were destroyed, and 50 percent expenses. were partially damaged; Sahel Al Jabal, where 22.2 percent were destroyed and 27.8 percent were The cumulative impact of inadequate policies, partially damaged, and Umar Al Mukhtar, where chronic underfunding, extended periods of conflict, 20 percent were destroyed, and 50 percent were and the pandemic has also exacerbated disparities in partially damaged. Al Bayda was also severely education. Youth unemployment remains persistently impacted, with five schools destroyed and 24 high: more than one out of two individuals aged 15– schools partially damaged, representing 60 percent 24 is unemployed, partly due to the skills mismatch of the schools in the municipality. 59 USAID Libya Ministry of Education Human and Institutional Capacity Assessment, Final Report, August 2019 https://pdf. usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00W5DB.pdf. 60 REACH, Multi-Sector Needs Assessment 2021 and 2022 – Education and Child Protection Key findings, March 2022. 61 UNICEF, Libya Country Office Annual Report 2021. 62 UNICEF Libya, Youth Employability Skills in Libya – Final Report, September 2023. 63 UNICEF Libya, Libya Ministry of Planning, NESB and National Bureau of Statistics and Census, 2020. 64 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. 74 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 9: Damage and Loss Inventory Partially Completely Total Cost Total Asset Types Baseline Damaged destroyed (US$ million) (LYD million) DAMAGE   Primary schools 162.0 28.0 9.0 5.3 25.3 Secondary schools 130.0 41.0 4.0 5.3 25.5 Schools combining primary 497.0 76.0 21.0 16.0 77.1 and secondary education College/University schools 185.0 10.0 3.0 3.5 16.8 Total Damage 30.1 144.7 LOSS   Temporary learning spaces       5.0 24.0 Temporary teachers       2.7 12.9 Psychosocial support       16.8 80.7 Academic catch up       3.0 14.4 Teacher training (education in       0.5 2.4 emergencies) Education materials       0.8 3.6 Total Loss 28.7 138.1 Source: Assessment team. The analysis further reveals that as of October 2023, Economic losses were calculated based on 80.1 percent of schools are fully functioning, and 13.4 unexpected education expenditures and increased percent are partially functioning. Among the rest of operational costs directly linked to the floods.65 the schools, 6.4 percent are not functioning, and These included temporary learning spaces and 0.72 percent are used as shelters and emergency payment of additional or reserve teachers; they housing for IDPs. Students enrolled in non-operating also include emergency-related operating costs of schools were encouraged to attend other schools education institutions such as safety, psychosocial in their area. In Derna, no schools were functioning support, catch-up programs, classroom materials normally, with 67.7 percent of schools not functioning and student supplies, and teacher training. Total loss at all and 32.3 percent partially functioning. is estimated at US$ 28.7 million over three years. Qualitative assessments showed that students from non-operational or damaged schools were assigned to educational facilities in other parts of the city. As Linking Effects to Human of October, most impacted Derna schools were still Impact not operating. The damages and losses resulting from storm Daniel The total infrastructure damages have been may further impact the Libyan education system, estimated at US$ 30.1 million (Table 9). Most of the which was already severely weakened due to years damage costs are for education facilities in Derna of conflict and the impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic. (20 percent), followed by Al Bayda (18 percent) and Students are at risk of missing school due to school Shahaat (10 percent). The damage costs for these closures, road damage, and safety concerns. In three municipalities make up almost half of the total some municipalities, such as Al Marj, storm Daniel damage costs (Table 10). exacerbated already poor access to schools during 65 Losses from higher operational costs and unexpected expenditures due to the floods are calculated for a three-year period (until recovery). Detailed Sector Assessments 75 Table 10: Damages and Losses by Municipality Total Damage Total Loss Total Damage + Loss (In millions) (In millions) (In millions) # Municipality     US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ LYD 1 Derna 5.9 28.3 5.6 27.0 11.5 55.3 2 Al Abraq 1.7 8.3 1.7 7.9 3.4 16.2 3 Soussa 1.9 8.9 1.8 8.5 3.6 17.4 4 Al Bayda 5.3 25.4 5.0 24.2 10.3 49.6 5 Al Marj 1.5 7.3 1.4 6.9 3.0 14.2 6 Sahel Al Jabal 1.9 8.9 1.8 8.5 3.6 17.4 7 Shahaat 2.9 13.8 2.7 13.1 5.6 26.9 8 Jardas Al Abid 0.9 4.5 0.9 4.3 1.8 8.7 9 Medouar Al Zetoun - - 10 Al Qayqab 0.7 3.3 0.7 3.1 1.3 6.4 11 Ra’s Al Hilal - - 0.0 0.0 - - 12 Wardam 0.2 1.0 0.2 1.0 0.4 2.0 13 Umar Al Mukhtar 1.2 5.6 1.1 5.3 2.3 10.9 14 Toukara - - - - - - 15 Benghazi 2.2 10.4 2.1 9.9 4.2 20.3 16 Gemienis 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.2 17 Suloug 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2 1.2 18 Umm Arazam 1.5 7.0 1.4 6.6 2.8 13.6 19 Al Qubah 0.9 4.2 0.8 4.0 1.7 8.2 20 Al Abyar 1.4 6.9 1.4 6.6 2.8 13.5 Total 30.1 144.7 28.7 138.1 58.8 282.7 Note: Losses by municipality were extrapolated based on the total calculated loss and the proportion of damage in the municipality relative to total damage. Source: Assessment team. heavy rains. Early estimates indicated that shortly The aftermath of the storm is likely to intensify after the storm, 69 percent of children in affected vulnerabilities among children and youth; areas were out of school due to damage or schools necessitating strengthened access to learning and being repurposed, with an additional 56 percent not psychosocial assistance to help them cope with attending school due to their caregivers’ precarious the trauma and challenges they have experienced. situations.66 The authorities initiated early recovery As of September 2023, an estimated 56 percent of efforts with the support of humanitarian actors, children experienced psychosocial distress related including UNICEF, focusing on restoring essential to the floods.67 Prolonged school closures may also services, resulting in the reopening of most schools impact mothers and other female caregivers, who by early October. must balance caregiving responsibilities with jobs and household duties. 66 UNDAC and REACH. Multi-Thematic Rapid Needs Assessment (MTRNA) Factsheet. September 2023. 67 UNDAC and REACH. Multi-Thematic Rapid Needs Assessment (MTRNA) Factsheet. September 2023. 76 Detailed Sector Assessments in education quality. Quality education should Recovery Needs and Strategy be prioritized throughout all recovery phases, including assessing learning losses, planning for The estimated cost for Libya’s education sector’s learning recovery, establishing systems to track recovery and reconstruction needs amounts to US$ students’ access and learning, and providing 117.7 million over three years. Restoring service continuous education and support for teachers delivery constitutes approximately 33 percent of to adapt to new conditions. In the short term, the total requirements, encompassing expenses for securing safe and quality temporary learning temporary learning spaces, salaries, and training for spaces is crucial, and should be pursued in teachers and non-teaching staff, academic catch-up parallel to reconstructing school infrastructure. programs, psychosocial support for children, and It is also imperative to ensure that roads leading teaching and learning materials and an EdTEch to schools are both usable and safe. learning platform, over the three-year period (refer to Table 11). • By integrating climate resilience measures into the design and construction of schools — such as The most important priority for the education the utilization of climate-resistant materials, the system is to ensure access to quality learning for all implementation of early warning systems, and the students. As such, reconstruction and rehabilitation development of evacuation plans — the education of damaged schools and educational facilities and sector can actively work towards guaranteeing additions of extra classrooms to existing schools the safety of students and staff during disasters. will be most urgently needed. Supporting students to cope with the trauma caused by the flood and • In the medium run, the recovery plan is an preexisting crises will also be crucial. In the short opportunity to provide teachers with refresher term, the focus should be on (i) coordinating courses and methodology training and possibly reconstruction and rehabilitation efforts; (ii) foster new EdTech and digital learning solutions. integrating psychosocial wellbeing within schools, including training of teachers and referrals of the • Offering psychosocial support to students and severe cases; and (iii) supporting teachers with teachers will further contribute to children’s teaching and learning material. These challenges are readiness to learn. Incorporating disaster significant, especially considering the preexisting resilience in education sector planning and need for school reconstruction, rehabilitation, implementation in the long term will strengthen learning support, and psychological assistance disaster preparedness and response at all levels. before the storm. This will be achieved through disaster risk management and emergency response education Qualitative accounts indicate that children attending and training. severely damaged or non-operational schools are being encouraged to enroll in other schools in Finally, verifying damage and economic loss their respective areas. Support should be given estimates on the ground is crucial to better inform to these schools in the short run, including the and guide the recovery strategy. layout of temporary learning spaces, prefabricated classrooms, desks, teacher desks and chairs, whiteboards, learning resources for teachers, as Linkages with Cross-Cutting well as the allocation of additional teachers in the Themes school to support those additional students. In conclusion, Storm Daniel presents opportunities As noted above, protracted school closures have for Building Back Better (BBB), aiming to enhance ripple effects on mothers and caregivers who access to education and improve its overall quality. must navigate the dual demands of caregiving responsibilities alongside employment and domestic • Recovery plans for the education sector should duties. incorporate a clear vision for Building Back Better (BBB) right from the outset, aiming to Recognizing the pivotal role of the education sector prevent further challenges such as out-of- is a unique opportunity to instill awareness among school pressures, learning loss, and trauma. students regarding the significance of climate Accordingly, the education recovery strategy action. By integrating discussions on climate change must prioritize the establishment of resilient into the curriculum and drawing connections to education infrastructure and enhancements recent floods, the education system can foster a Detailed Sector Assessments 77 Table 11: Costing of Reconstruction for Schools Total Cost (US$ million) Total Cost (LYD million) - including costs - including costs Needs Type for BBB, etc.) for BBB, etc.) School construction (primary, secondary and university) and 78.4 376.9 rehabilitation Service delivery including training and supporting teachers, 39.2 188.5 catch up programs, learning and teaching materials, safety for students and teachers, psychological support, potentially school feeding and school transport services. Total Needs 117.7 565.4 Source: Assessment team. Table 12: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction  Short-term early recovery* Medium-term* (1–12 months) (1–3 years) Total Cost in Total Cost in Intervention/Activity US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ million LYD million School infrastructure 23.5 113.1 54.9 263.9 78.4 376.9 reconstruction Service Delivery Restoration 11.8 56.5 27.5 131.9 39.2 188.5 Total Needs 35.3 169.6 82.4 395.8 117.7 565.4 Source: Assessment team. deeper understanding of and resilience to climate- • Insufficient Data on Unit Costs: In particular, related risks. This approach not only empowers there is insufficient data on the unit costs students to become catalysts for change in Building associated with various interventions, notably Back Better (BBB) initiatives but also contributes to those pertaining to education and emergency a more comprehensive and sustainable educational services within schools. This encompasses experience. critical areas such as psychological support services, safety programs, and the provision of Limitations educational materials. • Lack of Clear Data on Infrastructure Needs: The The present assessment is constrained by several absence of precise data on the infrastructure data limitations, encompassing: and material requirements for partially damaged schools further constrains the assessment, • Limited Data Availability: A shortage of hindering a comprehensive understanding of the comprehensive data impedes a thorough analysis recovery needs in these specific cases. of recovery needs for colleges and universities. Additionally, it hampers the accurate calculation of the number of beneficiaries among school-age children, both within and outside the educational system. 78 Detailed Sector Assessments HEALTH Over a decade of instability in Libya has impacted partially functional, while 28 PHCs (19 percent) were its health infrastructure and services even prior non-functional. to the storm and floods. Among the 97 public hospitals and 1,355 public primary health care (PHC) Poor services in the public health sector have facilities in the country, 18 percent of hospitals and contributed to a growing private health sector in 20 percent of PHC facilities in 2017 were closed Libya and increasing out-of-pocket expenditures either due to maintenance, inaccessibility due to for health. There are currently far more in-patient conflict, damage, or occupation by other parties.68 hospitals, pharmacies, and diagnostic imaging Service availability in these facilities, assessed centers in Libya’s private sector than in its public against a composite score of indicators from three sector.70 Public healthcare spending has declined over domains - health infrastructure, health workforce, the past decade with concerns about efficiencies in and service utilization – was however high at 81 expenditure. In 2019, nearly a third of the population percent. On the other hand, service readiness incurred catastrophic health expenditures, defined included a composite score of five domains - basic as health spending that constituted more than 40 amenities, standard precautions for infection percent of a household’s non-food expenditures.71 prevention, basic equipment, basic medicines, and This is a significant increase in comparison to 2006 diagnostics – which was less than adequate. While when out-of-pocket expenditures were 23 percent of the service readiness of hospitals was 69 percent, total expenditures on health.72 it was much lower, at 45 percent in PHC facilities. In hospitals, low service readiness was primarily Data to assess the impact of declining public health driven by a lack of basic medicines and diagnostic services on health outcomes is limited. There has tests. In PHCs, on the other hand, the low availability been no nationally representative household survey of basic medicines, diagnostics, basic amenities, measuring health outcomes and service coverage and standard precautions for infection prevention in Libya, such as the DHS or MICS, over the past impacted service availability. decade. Current estimates are, therefore, largely based on estimations suggesting either a decline This sub-optimal status of health facilities in Libya or stagnation of key health outcomes.73 The only was confirmed by a more recent pre-disaster recent survey was the SMART survey74 that focused assessment by WHO in 2023 that covered three of on maternal and child nutrition and services, which the main flood-affected districts - Al Jabal Al Akhdar, remains unpublished. Data indicated a prevalence of Al Marj, and Derna.69 Of the 24 assessed hospitals in widespread and severe acute malnutrition in Libya these districts, only 13 hospitals (54 percent) were of 3.5 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, while fully functional, while 11 hospitals (46 percent) were the prevalence of stunting was 8.2 percent. While partially functional. The main reported causes of nutrition outcomes were found to be poorest in the partial or non-functionality were the lack of medical southern region, key child health services, such supplies (drugs and consumables), lack of medical as measles vaccination rates were the lowest in equipment, and shortage of finances. At the same the East Region at 80.9 percent. The prevalence of time, out of the 148 assessed PHC facilities in diarrhea (in the past two weeks) was also highest in these districts, 120 (81 percent) were either fully or the Benghazi region at 38.3 percent. 68 Service Availability and Readiness Assessment (SARA) of Public Health Facilities in Libya, 2017. Ministry of Health, Libya, WHO and EU. 69 WHO Libya Country Office: Situation Update 2: East Coast Daniel Storm 12 September 2023. 70 Mapping of Private Health Facilities of Libya, 2019. Ministry of Health, WHO and EU. 71 Duran, D., and M. Hamza. 2022. Background paper: Determinants of Healthcare Access and Spending in Libya: A Post- Conflict Analysis. Washington, DC: The World Bank. 72 WHO EMRO 2007. 73 Irhiam, Hend R., Michael G. Schaeffer, and Kanae Watanabe, editors. 2023. The Long Road to Inclusive Institutions in Libya: A Sourcebook of Challenges and Needs. International Development in Focus series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1922-3. 74 Libya National Nutrition Smart Survey Report, 2022, UNICEF, WFP, Action Against Hunger, Primary Health Care Institute, Libya, and Bureau of Statistics and Census, Libya (unpublished). Detailed Sector Assessments 79 impediments, particularly with respect to damaged Assessment of Disaster medical equipment and staff requirements varies Effects75 across municipalities, depending on the extent of damage caused by the floods and the status of The RDNA estimated damage flood damage to 11 facilities prior to the floods. For example, an in- types of public and private health facilities, shown in depth facility assessment by WHO in Al Jabal Al Table 1. The four affected districts have an estimated Akhdar district76 found that 74 percent of assessed 902 facilities, of which three (0.3 percent) facilities facilities had partially damaged medical equipment (one general hospital, one PHC and one pharmacy) and only three percent of facilities had the required have been completely destroyed, and 153 (17 equipment intact, while 23 percent of facilities did percent) partially damaged. In total, this damage is not have equipment pre-floods. At the same time, estimated at US$ 28.3 million. The destroyed hospital in Almarj District, 83 percent of assessed facilities is the Al Jumhuria Hospital in Benghazi; the other had intact medical equipment, with eight percent two destroyed facilities are in Derna. From among being partially or fully damaged equipment and nine the 153 partially damaged facilities, 37 are hospitals percent of facilities with no equipment pre-floods.77 (16 percent of total hospitals), 76 are primary care facilities (PHC units, centers and polyclinics, private There is also a lack of medical and health staff to outpatient clinics – 17 percent of total PHCs), 37 respond to existing needs; however, accessibility to pharmacies (17 percent of total pharmacies) and health facilities is less of an issue. About 104 health three laboratories (38 percent of total laboratories) workers are known to have died in the floods.78 There (Table 13). The highest density of damaged and is a large need for emergency medical teams across destroyed facilities is in Soussa, with 100 percent of all districts. The need for general practitioners, facilities damaged (11 facilities), followed by Medouar gynecologists, pediatricians, general surgeons, and Al Zetoun (50 percent), Al Bayda (46 percent), Derna orthopedic surgeons has been expressed across (38 percent), Gemienis (35 percent), and Wardam districts. Even prior to the floods, a shortage of (33 percent). Of the 20 municipalities included in the specialized medical staff was noted for some of the RDNA, 16 had damaged health facilities (Table 14). affected areas.79 However, most facilities remain accessible, with roads getting back to normal after The RDNA also estimated several categories of losses the flooding. In the limited areas where accessibility (Table 14). The economic losses in the health sector remains an issue due to poor facilities and roads, were more substantial, amounting to a total of US$ people have to travel longer distances to reach 68.6 million. The largest category of economic losses health facilities or are serviced by mobile clinics. was additional expenditures required for the treatment of people injured in the floods, including the costs Infectious diseases and chronic NCDs are both of long-term rehabilitation. Injury-related costs are major health challenges. As of November 23, 2023, estimated at US$ 36.7 million (54 percent of all losses). 4,352 deaths were reported (including 104 health Costs of the response, as well as extra expenditures workers), 9,969 cases of acute diarrhea, 8,160 for patients referred to other facilities and lower respiratory infections and 38 Hepatitis A infections revenues for health facilities that lost patients, made were reported.80 Reports from NGOs supporting the up the remaining US$ 31.9 million of losses. health response indicate that in addition to diarrhea, chronic conditions, including diabetes, hypertension, The primary impediments to health service delivery upper respiratory and lower respiratory tract include the lack of medicines, medical supplies, infections are the most common morbidities for medical equipment, and vaccines. The extent of these which people seek services.81 However, due to the 75 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. 76 Public Health Facilities Update: Libya Flood Response, Al Jabar Al Akhdar District: WHO, September 25, 2023. 77 Public Health Facilities Update: Libya Flood Response, Almarj District and Tukra municipality/ Benghazi District: WHO, September 30, 2023. 78 WHO Situation Report: Libya Flood Response, October 11, 2023. 79 REACH, Settlement-Based Assessment, Libya, Derna municipality, March 2023; and IPSOS - Libya Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment: Derna. 80 WHO Situation Report: Libya Flood Response, October 11, 2023. 81 International Medical Corps: Libya Flooding Situation Report #6, October 16, 2023. 80 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 13: Damage and Loss Inventory Partially Completely Total Cost Total Asset Types Baseline Damaged destroyed (US$ million) (LYD million) DAMAGE  Private Hospital 11 5 0 2.1 10.0 Private Primary Health Care (Outpatient) 213 43 0 2.0 9.5 Clinics and Dental Clinics General Hospital 194 29 1 13.1 63.0 Rural Hospital 11 2 0 0.8 4.0 Tertiary Hospital 10 1 0 0.4 2.0 Primary Health Care Unit 56 4 0 0.2 0.9 Primary Health Care Centre 94 10 1 0.6 2.7 National Centers for Disease Control Clinic 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 Polyclinic 77 19 0 6.3 30.4 Hospital (Unknown) 0 0 0 0.0 0.0 Pharmacy/Dispensary 223 37 1 2.6 12.6 Laboratory (Private) 8 3 0 0.1 0.7 Health Administration Building 5 0 0 0.0 0.0 Total Damage 28.3 135.8 LOSS   Cost of demolition and rubble removal 0.3 1.4 Higher expenditures for treatment of injured, 36.7 176.4 including long-term rehabilitation Higher expenditures on patients referred to 1.1 5.1 other facilities Lower revenues due to smaller patient 2.1 10.2 numbers, including patients lost to mobile teams and clinics Cost of interim service delivery through 9.0 43.5 mobile clinics Cost of reducing environmental risks through 1.3 6.0 water quality testing and vector control Cost of intensified prevention and health 1.3 6.0 promotion Cost of temporary reassignment of health 2.5 12.1 workers (supplementary expenses for transport, housing, hardship) Cost of supplementary trauma-related mental 11.0 52.6 health and psychosocial support services Higher expenditures for surveillance of water- 3.4 16.2 borne and displacement-related illnesses Total Loss 68.6 329.7 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 81 Table 14: Damages and Losses by Municipality Total Damage Total Loss Total Damage+ Loss # Municipality US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ LYD 1 Derna 2,095,515 10,069,998 5,085,043 24,436,172 7,180,558 34,506,170 2 Al Abraq 0 0 0 0 0 0 3 Soussa 3,096,451 14,879,996 7,513,945 36,108,263 10,610,396 50,988,259 4 Al Bayda 5,531,160 26,579,991 13,422,086 64,499,836 18,953,247 91,079,827 5 Al Marj 45,781 220,000 111,093 533,858 156,874 753,858 6 Sahel Al Jabal 45,781 220,000 111,093 533,858 156,874 753,858 7 Shahaat 91,562 439,999 222,186 1,067,716 313,748 1,507,715 8 Jardas Al Abid 0 0 0 0 0 0 9 Medouar Al Zetoun 45,781 220,000 111,093 533,858 156,874 753,858 10 Al Qayqab 0 0 0 0 0 0 11 Ra’s Al Hilal 0 0 0 0 0 0 12 Wardam 45,781 220,000 111,093 533,858 156,874 753,858 13 Umar Al Mukhtar 45,781 220,000 111,093 533,858 156,874 753,858 14 Toukara 91,562 439,999 222,186 1,067,716 313,748 1,507,715 15 Benghazi 15,553,009 74,739,986 37,741,417 181,366,380 53,294,426 256,106,366 16 Gemienis 674,227 3,239,999 1,636,101 7,862,282 2,310,328 11,102,281 17 Suloug 112,371 540,000 272,683 1,310,380 385,055 1,850,380 18 Umm Arazam 461,970 2,219,999 1,121,032 5,387,118 1,583,002 7,607,117 19 Al Qubah 133,181 640,000 323,181 1,553,045 456,361 2,193,045 20 Al Abyar 199,771 960,001 484,771 2,329,567 684,542 3,289,568 135,849,966 68,600,097 329,657,765 96,869,781 465,507,731 28,269,684 Source: Assessment team. severe shortage of vaccines in the affected areas, percent), as noted in the paragraph above. While approximately 9000 children under one year of age mental health, and psychosocial support services may be at risk of missing routine vaccinations.82 No (MHPSS) are being scaled up with support from INGOs cholera or vector-borne disease outbreaks have and UN agencies such as UNICEF, these will need to occurred. be sustained beyond the emergency response phase with a 5–15 percent estimated increase in caseloads The impact on mental health is believed to be expected. Experience from a mental health helpline significant. Mental health support was reported83 by established by an INGO indicates that approximately people as an urgent healthcare need (59 percent), 70 percent of callers use and receive MHPSS services, second only to first aid and emergency care (61 while 30 percent of callers inquire about these percent). Other needs included treatment for chronic services. Approximately 69 percent of the callers disease (58 percent) and routine vaccinations (52 82 WHO Situation Report: Libya Flood Response, October 11, 2023. 83 Northeastern Libya Floods 2023 - Multi-Thematic Rapid Needs Assessment (MTRNA). 82 Detailed Sector Assessments are female and about 44 percent come from directly 15, Table 16 and Table 17). More specifically, this affected areas.84 should include: Linking Effects to Human i. Provision of medical supplies and vaccines: A reliable supply chain of medicines, particularly for Impact chronic NCDs such as hypertension and diabetes, is critical. This is because nearly 80 percent of In addition to the tremendous loss of lives, the deaths in Libya are attributable to NCDs. Equally floods disrupted health services and increased the important is vaccination for measles, diphtheria, risk of morbidity and mental distress, with women and polio. Restoring the vaccine supply chain and and children being particularly vulnerable. While cold chain equipment in facilities is critical. increased morbidity impacts education outcomes and productivity; for children in the early years, ii. Campaigns to prevent infectious diseases, health if unaddressed, it may have lasting implications promotion, and strengthened disease surveillance. for growth, cognitive development, and long-term The risk of infectious and waterborne diseases is health. Women’s reproductive and maternal health high post-disaster, and investments in campaigns needs are especially compromised by damaged for vector control, water quality testing and facilities, infrastructure, and lower economic treatment are critical. Health promotion resources. These create potential impacts on campaigns informing people where to go for NCDs, unwanted pregnancies, prenatal care, access to pregnancy related services, child vaccinations, skilled labor assistance, and maternal mortality. In mental health, and rehabilitative services will addition, in the absence of psychosocial support, be important to facilitate access. Campaigns mental distress from the floods may result in mental on hygiene and food safety will be essential to disorders. Mental disorders are associated with prevent disease outbreaks. Intensified detection poor education, low productivity, poverty, premature and reporting on infectious diseases and profiles and excess mortality, and poor overall health85, and of patients accessing health services in the short exact a heavy toll on sufferers and society. Early term will be critical to ensure timely detection of and long-term support is needed to overcome long- any disease outbreak and responsiveness. term impacts. iii. Repair of minimally damaged health facilities Recovery Needs and Strategy (hospitals and PHCs) and replacement of medical equipment : Medical equipment essential for Recovery efforts at recovery will require replacing, service provision in several health facilities repairing, and rebuilding damaged assets and was damaged by the floods and even prior to restoring service delivery, as well as investments to the floods. Replacing this equipment in facilities strengthen the health system through BBB. This will with minimum physical damage and undertaking include investments for immediate to short-term repairs in facilities where there is partial damage requirements for restoration and continuity of health to physical infrastructure would help restore full services in the affected area, addressing disaster- functionality in these facilities, allowing them to specific and general morbidity, and mitigating become fully functional and serve the population’s increased public health risks. It will also require needs more effectively. Where possible, investments to address pre-disaster constraints in opportunities to transition to energy-efficient service delivery and access, and promote sustained, practices should be identified, using renewable equitable, quality services and country-wide health energy sources, and adopting green and resilient coverage. building design principles. Renewable energy systems can ensure that health facilities can The sort-term priority to restoring essential health operate during power outages or disruptions and services in functional and partially functional enhance disaster preparedness and resilience. facilities and offering services through mobile units. In addition, more MHPSS services are needed (Table iv. Identify facilities with limited health staff and locations with limited access to facilities and put in place interim services. The WHO assessment 84 International Medical Corps: Libya Flooding Situation Report #6, October 16, 2023. 85 UNDP Human Development Report 2021/2022: Uncertain Times, Unsettled Lives, Shaping our future in a Transforming World. Detailed Sector Assessments 83 highlighted that there were a select few locations investments in the complete reconstruction of where health facilities remained difficult to access health facilities should be based on the size of and where there was a shortage of specialized the potential beneficiary population, the distance health staff. To provide adequate services, a from the closest health facility, and the anticipated temporary re-assignment of health staff as part reduction in out-of-pocket expenditures. Climate of a short-term emergency response will be resilience should be included as an integral important. In addition, support packages for local part of the facility design, transitioning to more health staff impacted by the disaster (such as energy-efficient practices, utilizing renewable housing, transport etc.) to enable them to resume energy sources, and adopting green and resilient work will be important. For villages with access building design principles. As mentioned earlier, issues, mobile clinics are an effective interim renewable energy systems can ensure that health measure. facilities operate even during power outages or disruptions in the grid supply and enhance the v. Establish MHPSS services to cater to the immediate facility’s disaster preparedness and resilience. mental health needs of the population. Even prior to the floods, there was an established ii. Strengthening the medicine and vaccine need for mental health services in the region. procurement and supply chain system. The low Approximately 2,000 people in Derna, for availability of medicines in public health facilities example, were receiving mental health support is one of the biggest challenges in the public prior to the floods.86 Post-disaster, the need for health system, and one of the key drivers of mental health support has increased significantly. out-of-pocket expenditures. Clear procurement Putting in place mental health helplines, and guidelines and a digital supply chain system that training health facility staff to respond to these tracks and manages the supply and delivery of needs will be critical to the recovery of the medicines will be critical for transparency and people affected by the disaster. At the same time, management of medicine stockouts. it is important to recognize that health workers themselves may need psychosocial support. iii. Upskilling human resources. Although there are Health workers are generally involved in the enough health workers in the country overall, immediate response despite themselves being their distribution is highly uneven. Additionally, impacted by the disaster, including the deaths while there is a shortage of key specialties, of family and loved ones, and there is growing such as mental health workers and nurses with evidence of these impacts on their wellbeing.87 In degrees (4–6-year university degrees), there is a addition to establishing MHPSS services to cater surplus of others, such as dentists. Reskilling and to the immediate mental health needs of the upskilling health workers in the East to align with population, it is crucial to integrate awareness country-level needs will be important to provide campaigns around mental health and wellbeing. equitable, sustained health services in affected areas. In the medium to long term, a system strengthening approach will be important for sustained systemic iv. Strengthening emergency care and pandemic change. This will require increased investment in preparedness. Preparedness to respond to the health sector to reverse the trend of declining natural or man-made disasters is important, as health expenditure per capita. shown by the COVID-19 pandemic. With climate change increasing the risk of infectious diseases i. Systematic needs assessment prior to the and the emergence of new ones, preparations reconstruction of destroyed and damaged health are needed in order to respond rather than react. facilities. Reconstruction of destroyed facilities Capacity building of government institutions and renovation of significantly damaged facilities and personnel on the establishment of cross- may be required. In general, priorities for 86 WHO Situation Report: Libya Flood Response, October 11, 2023. 87 Tahernejad S, Ghaffari S, Ariza-Montes A, Wesemann U, Farahmandnia H, Sahebi A. Post-traumatic stress disorder in medical workers involved in earthquake response: A systematic review and meta-analysis. Heliyon. 2023 Jan 3;9(1): e12794. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon. 2023.e12794. PMID: 36685451; PMCID: PMC9850193. Gaiser M, Buche J, Baum NM, Grazier KL. Mental Health Needs Due to Disasters: Implications for Behavioral Health Workforce Planning During the COVID-19 Pandemic. Public Health Rep. 2023 May-Jun;138(1_suppl):48S-55S. doi: 10.1177/00333549231151888. PMID: 37226951; PMCID: PMC10225905. 84 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 15: Health Sector Costs     Total Cost (US$ million) - Total Cost (LYD million) - Needs Type Time frame including costs for BBB etc. including costs for BBB etc. Infrastructure Short-term 22.6 108.7 reconstruction Medium-term 14.1 67.9 Service delivery Short-term 33.9 163.0 restoration Medium-term 42.4 203.8 Total Needs 113.1 543.4 Source: Assessment team. sectoral platforms to manage emergencies will care across facilities, and building capacity and be important in this regard. establishing mechanisms to conduct periodic nationally representative surveys to assess the v. Strengthening PHC facilities to provide an essential current disease burden in the country is essential service package and support continued care for for improved planning and management of patients requiring rehabilitation services post- health services. While an Early Warning Alert disaster. Pre-disaster data from the affected sites and Response Network (EWARN) and District and Libya as a whole clearly indicates that PHC Health Information System-2 (DHIS-2) is available facilities, which play a critical role in delivering in the country, the use and completeness of basic healthcare services, are not operating at data from these systems is an issue. Building their full capacity. PHCs are expected to be the the capacity of health workers on using data first point of contact for basic health care needs, systems and creating a culture of using data for and their readiness to provide basic services is a informed decision-making will be important for crucial step in preparing the country to address strengthening service delivery and planning in its vulnerability to climate change and other the health sector. disasters.88 PHCs are crucial during disasters as evidenced in the global response to COVID-19.89 vii. Systematic engagement of the Private Sector. The Post-accident rehabilitation services, and mental growth of the private sector in Libya necessitates health and psychosocial support services should the need for active collaboration towards be available either at PHC facilities or through achieving universal health coverage. Potential referral linkages to specialized centers and social for collaboration exists for the provision of support programs. specialized medical care and diagnostics, which are areas where the public sector is facing vi. Strengthening health information systems. challenges. This will require developing a clear Strengthening the availability and quality of health framework for engaging the private health sector, sector data through routine health information such that it complements the public sector and and surveillance systems, introducing digital addresses key gaps without resulting in high out- patient records to enable seamless patient of-pocket expenditures for patients. 88 WHO 2018. Technical Series on Primary Health Care: Brief on Primary health care and health emergencies. 89 Li D, Howe AC, Astier-Peña MP. Primary health care response in the management of pandemics: Learnings from the COVID-19 pandemic. Aten Primaria. 2021 Dec;53 Suppl 1(Suppl 1):102226. doi: 10.1016/j.aprim.2021.102226. PMID: 34961573; PMCID: PMC8708808. Detailed Sector Assessments 85 Table 16: Total Cost of Needs for Health by and Municipality (in US$ million) # Municipality Needs category Cost (US$ million) Cost (LYD million) Infrastructure Reconstruction 2.7 13.1 1 Derna Service Delivery Restoration 5.7 27.2 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 2 Al Abraq Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Infrastructure Reconstruction 4.0 19.3 3 Soussa Service Delivery Restoration 8.4 40.2 Infrastructure Reconstruction 7.2 34.6 4 Al Bayda Service Delivery Restoration 14.9 71.8 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.3 5 Al Marj Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.6 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.3 6 Sahel Al Jabal Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.6 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.6 7 Shahaat Service Delivery Restoration 0.2 1.2 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 8 Jardas Al Abid Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.3 9 Medouar Al Zetoun Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.6 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 10 Al Qayqab Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.0 0.0 11 Ra’s Al Hilal Service Delivery Restoration 0.0 0.0 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.3 12 Wardam Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.6 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.3 13 Umar Al Mukhtar Service Delivery Restoration 0.1 0.6 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.6 14 Toukara Service Delivery Restoration 0.2 1.2 Infrastructure Reconstruction 20.2 97.2 15 Benghazi Service Delivery Restoration 42.0 201.8 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.9 4.2 16 Gemienis Service Delivery Restoration 1.8 8.7 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.1 0.7 17 Suloug Service Delivery Restoration 0.3 1.5 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.6 2.9 18 Umm Arazam Service Delivery Restoration 1.2 6.0 86 Detailed Sector Assessments # Municipality Needs category Cost (US$ million) Cost (LYD million) Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.2 0.8 19 Al Qubah Service Delivery Restoration 0.4 1.7 Infrastructure Reconstruction 0.3 1.2 20 Al Abyar Service Delivery Restoration 0.5 2.6 Total 113.1 543.4 Source: Assessment team. Table 17: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Health Sector Reconstruction  Short-term early recovery* medium-term* (1–12 months) (1–3 years) Total Cost Total Cost in US$ in LYD Intervention/Activity  US$ LYD US$ LYD million million Provision of medical supplies and 4.2 20.4 0.0 0.0 4.2 20.4 vaccines Treatment and rehabilitation of 5.7 27.2 22.6 108.7 28.3 135.8 injuries Repair of health facilities and 22.6 108.7 0.0 0.0 22.6 108.7 replacement of equipment Interim service delivery through 8.5 40.8 0.0 0.0 8.5 40.8 mobile clinics Establish mental health and 4.2 20.4 5.7 27.2 9.9 47.5 psychosocial support services Reconstruction of destroyed health 0.0 0.0 14.1 67.9 14.1 67.9 facilities based on systematic needs assessment Strengthening the medicine and 0.0 0.0 2.8 13.6 2.8 13.6 medical supply procurement and supply chain system Upskilling health human resources 0.0 0.0 5.7 27.2 5.7 27.2 Strengthening emergency care and 0.0 0.0 2.8 13.6 2.8 13.6 pandemic preparedness Reducing environmental risks 2.8 13.6 0.0 0.0 2.8 13.6 through water quality testing and vector control Intensified prevention and health 5.7 27.2 0.0 0.0 5.7 27.2 promotion, including vaccination campaigns Temporary reassignment of health 2.8 13.6 0.0 0.0 2.8 13.6 workers (supplementary expenses for transport, housing, hardship) Systematic engagement of the Private 0.0 0.0 2.8 13.6 2.8 13.6 Sector Total Needs 56.5 271.7 56.5 271.7 113.1 543.4 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 87 Linkages with Cross-Cutting Limitations themes The main limitations of the health sector assessment, beyond those noted earlier for the Interactions among health institutions in the different overall assessment, are: regions are largely at technical levels. While there is equitable access to healthcare between women and • Information on damage and disruption of health men, healthcare needs for women differ from those of services varies across districts and municipalities men and are important to account for in the disaster and has been used to provide generalized response. For example, beyond the immediate recommendations across impacted areas. requirement of food, first aid and shelter, women have • Several detailed assessments by partners (WHO additional service requirements for reproductive and UNICEF) are currently underway, which will and maternal health, which are often ignored in the likely provide updated and robust information on immediate disaster response. In addition, pregnant some of the issues mentioned in this assessment women and children are particularly vulnerable and of the health sector. have additional needs specific to their condition. • Limited data on disease surveillance was Female counselors and psychosocial support in available, which made it difficult to estimate safe spaces are also important investments, as are the change in the incidence of diseases in the support programs for women and children who lost aftermath of the floods. their families in the floods. • The private health sector was a key pre-disaster service provider in Libya. However, information Climate change contribes to frequent extreme from this sector was insufficient to establish weather events, such as heatwaves, storms, and replacement costs for private health care floods, which contribute to the disruption of food services. systems, and an increase in zoonotic and food-, water- • The disaster exacerbated the limitations of and vector-borne diseases, and mental health issues. the health sector in the region, and several These challenges escalate the demand for health recommendations for rebuilding were relevant services and simultaneously diminish the system’s prior to the disaster. However, rebuilding efforts capacity to meet these needs. In building back better, provide an opportunity to address these long- reconstruction efforts need to incorporate climate- standing issues in the health sector. resilient infrastructure, green energy power supply, integrated service delivery, primary health care to prevent disease outbreaks, and enhanced coverage and outreach of health services. . 88 Detailed Sector Assessments POVERTY Libya is ranked 104th out of 191 countries according benefit to mitigate against the erosion in services. to the Human Development Index (HDI) 2021–22 According to data available from 2014, two percent and is placed in the ‘high human development’ of the Libyan population is multi-dimensionally poor, category. However, the HDI has fallen since 2010 and 11.4 percent are classified as vulnerable to after more than a decade of instability. The drop multidimensional poverty.91 is mainly due to an erosion in the quality of public services, particularly health and education. Measures of welfare and poverty in Libya are limited While life expectancy increased by 2.5 years and due to the inaccessibility of official and nationally Libya’s Gross National Income (GNI) per capita representative household survey data, and the increased by about 5.9 percent, the expected years outdated population census. Published reports by of schooling dropped by 1.2 years between 1990 the Libyan Bureau of Statistics and Census, high- and 2021.90 High employment in the public sector frequency phone surveys conducted post-COVID, and untargeted subsidies serve as a type of social and non-traditional measures using satellite data Figure 18: Quartile of Average Relative Wealth Per District Note: Districts in white do not have data coverage and are sparsely populated. Source: Assessment team (using Meta’s Data for Good (Chi et al., 2021)). 90 UNDP. Forging New Ways through Uncertainties in Libya. UNDP Libya/ Malek Almoghrabi - https://www.undp.org/arab- states/press-releases/forging-new-ways-through-uncertainties-libya. 91 UNDP. Multidimensional Poverty Index 2023. https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/MPI/LBY.pdf. Detailed Sector Assessments 89 provide some baseline or pre-flood correlates of MENA region, stands at 39 percent of the working- welfare. However, additional data will be required age population, further limiting incomes. Across the to comprehensively assess post-flood impacts on country, average income per capita has fallen since poverty and welfare. The analysis below was based the pandemic. Flood-affected areas had recovered on data collected by the WB, Libyan institutions, and somewhat since the civil conflict, but damage from international partners.92 the flood threatens to undo this partial recovery. Prior to the flood, 55 percent of all Libyan households reported deprivations in at least one of five dimensions - housing, food, education, health, Figure 19: Average Monthly HH Income and safety. Data from phone surveys conducted Per Capita (LDY) by the WB, the World Food Programme (WFP) and in collaboration with the Libya Bureau of Statistics 800 and Census in 2021 indicate that the majority of households in Libya were deprived in at least one key 700 dimension of welfare, with many households facing 708 multiple deprivations.93 Non-traditional measures 600 of baseline welfare, such as the Relative Wealth Index (RWI)94, placed the flood-affected districts of 500 Derna, Benghazi, and Al Marj below median levels of wealth in Libya. Residents of Derna, Benghazi, 400 and Al Marj are, on average, between the 25th and 300 50th percentiles of welfare distribution. However, 319 290 288 districts in the West have higher relative wealth than 265 200 the eastern flood-affected districts. 220 100 According to the National Labour Force Survey conducted by the Bureau of Statistics and Census 0 in 2022, workers in Libya earned a monthly average Before the War Before Covid-19 2021 of 1,306 LDY or PPP$ 2023.95 Other data sources Rest of Libya Affected districts estimate mean household income per capita to be roughly 260 LDY or PPP$ 390.96 Household per Note: Affected districts include Derna, Al Jabal al Akhdar, Al- capita incomes are lower than average earnings Marj and Benghazi. Before the War refers to a typical month per worker since earnings from a few members between 2012 and 2014; Before Covid-19 refers to January are spread thinly across the whole household. At 41 2020, and 2021 refers to a typical month in 2021. percent, employment rates are relatively low in Libya Source: The multiple scars of the War and COVID19 Survey and household sizes are high at around 6.1 persons. conducted by WB and ARAA (HFS 2021). Female labor force participation, albeit high in the 92 Sources includes the Preliminary population estimates (2020) and the National Employment Survey (2022) conducted by the Libyan Bureau of Statistics and Census; Vulnerability Shocks and Coping Mechanisms Survey (VSCM-S 2021) collected over phone jointly by the WFP, World Bank, in collaboration with the Libya Bureau of Statistics and Census; The multiple scars of the War and COVID19 Survey conducted by WB and ARAA (HFS 2021); Meta’s Data for Good (Chi, Guanghua, Han Fang, Sourav Chatterjee, and Joshua E. Blumenstock. “Microestimates of wealth for all low-and middle- income countries.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119, no. 3 (2022): e2113658119.); FAOSTAT (https:// www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/CP); WFP prices (https://dataviz.vam.wfp.org/economic_explorer/prices); OpenStreetMaps and ESRI satellite data; IPSOS data and MTRNA dashboard. 93 Vulnerability Shocks and Coping Mechanisms Survey (VSCM-S 2021) collected over phone jointly by the WFP, World Bank, in collaboration with the Libya Bureau of Statistics and Census. 94 The RWI leverages sources such as mobile networks, internet connectivity, road density, weather, and topographical data to yield a relative welfare measure within a country. The index is available from Meta’s Data for Good platform and can be accessed at https://data.humdata.org/dataset/relative-wealth-index (Chi et al., 2021). 95 National Labor Force Survey, 2022 and using PPP conversion factor =0.6454554 (from WDI 2022). 96 HFS 2021; VSCM-S 2021 using PPP conversion factor =0.6670251 (from WDI 2021). 90 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 20: Food Consumer Price Index (2015=100) 250 200 150 100 50 0 Sep-2011 Sep-2012 Sep-2013 Sep-2014 Sep-2015 Sep-2016 Sep-2017 Sep-2018 Sep-2019 Sep-2020 Sep-2021 Sep-2022 May-2011 May-2012 May-2013 May-2014 May-2015 May-2016 May-2017 May-2018 May-2019 May-2020 May-2021 May-2022 May-2023 Jan-2011 Jan-2012 Jan-2013 Jan-2014 Jan-2015 Jan-2016 Jan-2017 Jan-2018 Jan-2019 Jan-2020 Jan-2021 Jan-2022 Jan-2023 Source: FAOSTAT (https://www.fao.org/faostat/en/#data/CP). in food items like meat, chicken, and couscous, Assessment of Disaster Effects  which are also reported to be most in demand after the floods, in addition to rice, bread and cooking Residents in affected areas have faced welfare oil.99 Prolonged shortages in food items pose a losses in housing, food security, education, and threat in terms of malnutrition in the short-term health.97 Key informant interviews (KIIs) report that and stunting in the long term. Shortages would only 30 percent of buildings in their communities exacerbate baseline food insecurity, which ranged were undamaged.98 Deprivation in housing is likely between 11–14 percent in Derna, Benghazi, and Al to be exacerbated after the flood with around 4,000 Marj.100 Food shortages and price volatility tend buildings damaged or destroyed in Derna alone (see to have a higher impact on women, who reduce housing chapter). Housing is a particular concern for food intake by shifting their diet to a less diverse IDPs in the affected regions. Even before the floods, one and reducing their own consumption to feed IDPs were more likely to live in informal settlements, others.101 Key informant interviews revealed that in which faced greater flood damage when Storm the aftermath of the floods, food security is one of Daniel struck. Flood damage also extended to roads the top five priorities in affected areas. While market and bridges, indicating a loss in connectivity and stores are still the most common source of food, interruption to local supply chains. This implies humanitarian assistance is playing a key role. In an immediate threat to food security and access addition, a small share of households had to resort to essential supplies (e.g., medicines, sanitary to emergency coping mechanisms like borrowing/ products). bartering, depleting stocks, and begging.102 Volatility in food prices is likely in the aftermath of Flood-affected areas faced interrupted access to the flood and has also been witnessed after other education and health, with potential adverse medium- economy-wide shocks, such as conflicts and the term effects. Schools were closed immediately after COVID-19 pandemic. Food security in Libya has been the floods and some were still not operational in a concern, especially since 2014, due to sharp rises heavily impacted areas even a month afterward, in food prices (Figure 20). Price volatility is higher namely in Derna, Shahaat, Soussa, and Al Marj.103 97 Libya Joint inter-agency MTRNA Key Informant interviews. 98 Libya Joint inter-agency MTRNA Key Informant interviews. 99 WB staff calculations using WFP price monitoring surveys and Libya Joint inter-agency MTRNA Key Informant interviews 100 VSCM-S 2021. 101 Oxfam (2019). Gender Inequalities and Food Insecurity: Ten years after the food price crisis, why are women farmers still food-insecure? Briefing paper. 102 Libya Joint inter-agency MTRNA Key Informant interviews. 103 Qualitative reports from IPSOS. Detailed Sector Assessments 91 Figure 21: Average Distance to a School (left) and Health Facility (right) by a Motorized Vehicle (in minutes) Source: Assessment team (calculations using OpenStreetMap’s data). https://data.humdata.org/dataset/libya-healthsites https://data.humdata.org/dataset/hotosm_lby_education_facilities Although students from non-operational schools were equipment in all impacted municipalities. Lack encouraged to attend classes in operating schools, of healthcare infrastructure and equipment challenges relating to inadequate or damaged road had contributed to the reluctance of healthcare infrastructure, distance, adjustments to new classes personnel to work in certain areas even before the and learning environments remain. In the medium floods.105 Given these challenges, health outcomes, term, this could lead to learning losses for children who both psychological and physical, must be monitored have already suffered conflict-related interruptions in closely. This applies particularly to water-borne the past, and social difficulties in acclimatizing to new diseases, as most people in affected areas do not classmates and teachers. Expected years of schooling treat water.106Access to prenatal and natal care for children of school-entering-ages is the one HDI should also be monitored, as inattention can have component that has deteriorated over the past three long-lasting impacts on health and human capital. decades, and deprivation in education contributes the Mental health should not be neglected in post- most to multidimensional poverty.104 Before Storm conflict and post-disaster context, especially as Daniel, residents in the flood-affected districts lived, ground reports indicate pressing needs for mental on average, less than 10 minutes away from a school healthcare professionals107 (see Health chapter). and less than 25 minutes from a health facility using a motorized vehicle. The impact on children, potential Prior to the floods, unemployment in flood-affected risks, and the disruption of education are discussed in districts ranged between 6.4–17.2 percent, with more detail in the Social Sustainability and Inclusion higher rates in Benghazi (Figure 22). According to the Chapter. National Labor Force Survey, most affected districts, except Benghazi, had unemployment below the Access to healthcare is likely to worsen and national level at 15.3 percent. Much of the workforce exacerbate pre-existing conflict-related damage in Libya is engaged in the public administration and to health facilities and significant loss of hospital defense sector. This is followed by education, health, 104 https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/MPI/LBY.pdf and https://hdr.undp.org/data-center/specific-coun- try-data#/countries/LBY. 105 Qualitative reports from IPSOS. 106 Libya Joint inter-agency MTRNA Key Informant interviews. 107 Qualitative reports from IPSOS. 92 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 22: Unemployment Rate (%) Across Districts (left) and Sectoral Share (%) of Workers (right) Jabal Al-Akhdar 6.4 Activities of HHs 0.1 Wadi Al-Shatii 8.1 Other services 0.3 Al-Marj 8.3 Al Jufrah 9.2 Arts & entertainment 0.2 Western Region 9.6 Health & social work 8 Tobruk 11.1 Education 26.8 Nalut 11.2 Public admin & defense 44.1 Derna 11.5 Zawiya 11.8 Admin.& support services 0.9 Misurata 12.6 Professional services 0.1 Jabal Al-Gharbi 13 Accomodation & food services 4.4 Wadi Al Hayat 14.9 National Average 15.3 Transport & storage 1.4 Ajdabiya and Al-Wahat 17.1 Trade & repair services 5.4 Benghazi 17.2 Construction 0.5 Al Jifarah 17.8 Water & waste management 0.6 Kufra 20.9 Marqab 21 Electricity 2.1 Tripoli 21.5 Manufacturing 0.5 Murzuq 21.8 Mining & quarrying 2.3 Sabha 22.7 Ghat 24 Agri. & fishing 0.1 Source: National Labor Force Survey, 2022. and social services (Figure 22, right). While livelihoods Economic shocks may affect women more adversely in public administration may not be at immediate risk, - either within the household through domestic rebuilding education and social infrastructure is vital tensions and unequal allocation of resources or in so teachers and health workers can return to their public spaces where women’s issues tend to get de- jobs and learning can fully resume. prioritized.108 Libyan women lag behind men in labor force participation (LFP) by almost 20 percentage Agricultural livelihoods, particularly in the northern points. According to the National Labor Force parts of affected districts, are vulnerable to income- Survey (2022), the LFP rate for women is 39 percent loss due to the floods. Although 19 percent of the compared to 58 percent for men. More than 40 percent population report farming for their own consumption, of women are educated up to tertiary levels, but at the formal agriculture sector employs less than the other end of the distribution, 20 percent of adult one percent of the Libyan workforce (Figure 22), women in Libya have no formal, or only elementary but the share may be higher in some districts. This levels of education (Figure 24). Nevertheless, given information is not available disaggregated by district. their education and skills, Libyan women’s human Satellite data indicates that Benghazi has the highest resource potential is not fully realized. Data on flood land area under crops among the flood-affected impacts disaggregated by gender are not available. districts - approximately 40 percent of its total area However, it is essential to monitor education, health, was farmed in 2019 (Figure 23). This suggests that mobility, and labor market outcomes (e.g., return agricultural livelihoods in the northern parts of to work, wages, absenteeism) for both women affected districts would be vulnerable to income loss and men so that inequalities are not exacerbated. due to the floods. Furthermore, it is crucial to recognize that women are among the hardest hit by disasters like this flood, 108 How Do Women Weather Economic Shocks? What We Know (World Bank, 2011). Detailed Sector Assessments 93 Figure 23: Share of District Under Cropland (%, Left) and in 1km Grids of Flood- Affected Areas (%, Right) Source: Assessment team (calculations using ESRI 2019 data (of affected districts only). given their limited access to communication and Economic shocks may also lead to higher violence financial tools. Women are less likely to use a mobile against women and men due to financial and phone, and they also have less access to savings psychological stresses.110 Adequate safeguards accounts, potentially excluding them from vital against such violence (against women and men) mitigation measures.109 The impact of post-disaster in the recovery phase should be prioritized, with conditions on women is discussed in more detail in provisions for recourse. the Social Development and Inclusion chapter. Figure 24: Distribution of Women by Education (%) 42% Tertiary 41% 12% Secondary 9% 28% Preparatory/Basic 26% 7% Elementary 8% 11% No formal education 15% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% affected rest of Libya Note: Above graph shows only female respondents above 18 years. Source: The multiple scars of the war and COVID19 Survey conducted by WB and ARAA (HFS 2021). 109 World Bank (2023). Gender Data Portal. https://genderdata.worldbank.org/countries/libya. 110 Agüero, Jorge M. “COVID-19 and the rise of intimate partner violence.” World development 137 (2021): 105217.; and Bhalotra, Sonia R., Uma S. Kambhampati, Samantha Rawlings, and Zahra Siddique. “Intimate partner violence and the business cycle.” (2018). 94 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 25: Share of Women who Believe Gender-Based Violence (Women and Men) is Common in Libya 50% 45% 40% Share of Women 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% Al Jabal al Akhdar Sabha Surt Marqab Al Jufrah Al Jabal al Gharbi Al Zawiyah Al Wahat Darnah Al Nuqat al Khams Benghazi Tripoli Total Wadi al Hayat Misrata Al Butnan Murzuq Al Jafarah Ghat Al Kufrah Al Marj Wadi al Shati' Nalut Source: The multiple scars of the war, and COVID-19 Survey conducted by WB and ARAA (HFS 2021). Figure 26: Top Priorities for Libyan Women (%) 1% Improving roads and transportation 4% Women's rights 7% Creating jobs 8% Healthcare system 9% Justice system 14% Fighting corruption 14% Education system 21% Electricty 22% Internal stability and national security 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% affected rest of Libya Source: The multiple scars of the war and COVID-19 Survey conducted by WB and ARAA (HFS 2021). and schools might exacerbate these concerns. While Recovery Needs and Strategy  reconstruction of physical assets may get priority, ensuring comprehensive and equitable service Post-flood priorities of all residents in affected delivery would be critical. areas have shifted to immediate and urgent needs such as shelter, food security, health, water and As recovery begins, priorities and needs may change. search and rescue.111 shows that this is a shift in the Accurate and updated data on living standards, top priorities reported by women in flood-affected food prices and availability, livelihoods, health, districts, which were internal stability and security, and education outcomes are necessary to inform closely followed by electricity and education. Women the recovery process. Data collection exercises in flood-affected areas were more likely than those can vary from nationally representative household in the rest of Libya to report concerns with education. surveys conducted in-person to ‘pulse’ surveys Given that electricity and education were concerns conducted over the phone or at the community- even at baseline, flood damage to electricity supply level. It is important that vulnerable sections of 111 Libya Joint inter-agency MTRNA Key Informant interviews. Detailed Sector Assessments 95 the population are adequately represented so their shocks, it becomes imperative to closely monitor needs and priorities are captured. Collaboration the medium-term adverse impacts and welfare across agencies and stakeholders would be key in of marginalized groups. Ensuring their needs are facilitating data collection and leveraging data to prioritized in recovery planning is crucial. For a respond to the most urgent needs. detailed examination of the post-disaster conditions and their impact on IDPs and migrants, refer to the Linkages with Cross-Cutting Social Development and Inclusion chapter. Themes  Limitations  The floods may exacerbate existing challenges, The assessment of welfare impacts resulting from strain already limited resources, and de-prioritize Storm Daniel is limited by the absence of up-to- the needs of vulnerable populations. Prior to date household-level data. Given this limitation, this the floods, the IOM estimated that Libya had assessment relied on baseline data and estimates, 831,000 displaced persons, including 126,000 which may have dated compared to current ground IDPs and 705,000 returnees.112 Storm Daniel, as a realities. The reliance on old data risks under - or over- conservative estimate, is reported to have further estimating the impacts of the floods, as households displaced 44,800 people, adding to the complexity or individuals may not be accurately identified. of an already intricate humanitarian landscape, as Additionally, the welfare situation and needs in the highlighted by the OCHA.113 Given the pre-existing Libyan context change rapidly. The effectiveness of administrative burdens and humanitarian needs development responses and monitoring in the future of vulnerable populations in Libya from previous hinges on overcoming this limitation. 112 IOM (August 2023). 113 OCHA, November 28, 2023. 96 Detailed Sector Assessments SOCIAL PROTECTION AND JOBS Libya has a social protection system that is inclusive workforce management and recruitment. Finally, by law and generous by design but limited in terms the Zakat Fund is subordinated to the Council of of coverage and impact. The system consists of (a) Ministers under the General Authority for Religious universal energy subsidies, which constitute the Affairs and Endowments and supports poor and bulk of social assistance expenditure, amounting vulnerable individuals countrywide. to 18.5 percent of GDP in 2022;114 (b) cash transfers to socially vulnerable groups such as women, the The lack of investment in disaster preparedness elderly and the disabled; and (c) a social security and risk reduction has further compounded system that covers retirement, disability, and vulnerabilities. The Social Protection sector unemployment in the public and private sectors lacks systems to identify populations in need and (enterprises that employ five individuals or more). deliver programs to respond to shocks. The Libyan Other programs, such as a universal food subsidy, Government in Tripoli initiated work on a national, existed, but ceased operation due to the decade- unified social registry in early 2023. The system was long conflict and subsequent crises, while some managed by the General Authority for Information continue but with no coverage in the eastern half of (GAI), who faced difficulties using it. Thus, the the country. Therefore, there have been no data on system could not be used to respond to the storm implementation or beneficiaries in the Eastern region nor to identify impacted populations and deliver since 2016, and data only covers the Western region. assistance. On the labor side, and similar to oil-rich developing economies, Libya relies on rent distribution of At the same time, as mentioned earlier, Libyan oil revenue through public sector employment, households have been facing overlapping shocks which employed approximately 86.5 percent of the that severely impacted their welfare. These include population in 2022.115 The remaining 13.5 percent a protracted conflict that left over 125,000 IDPs either worked in the private sector, or were self- and around 674,000 returnees,119 a severe food and employed, or worked for a family business.116 commodity crisis due to reduction of imports, the devaluation of the currency in 2021, and, finally, the The social protection sector is managed by several COVID-19 pandemic that resulted in a sharp slowdown agencies that often operate separately in the in and limited recovery of economic activity.120 While Western and Eastern regions. The Social Solidarity Libya continues to lack welfare data to assess the Fund (SSF), an autonomous117 institution, manages levels of poverty and vulnerability, the most recent a social assistance program for vulnerable groups publicly available data for multidimensional poverty across the country, while MoSA manages grants. (2014) estimates that two percent of the population The National Oil Corporation (NOC) operates the (135,000 people in 2021) are multidimensionally universal fuel subsidy. The SSA118 manages pension, poor, and an additional 11.4 percent are classified disability, and unemployment insurance payments. as vulnerable to multidimensional poverty (765,000 The MoL executes public policies and vision regarding people in 2021).121 According to the survey, almost 114 Estimated at $8.5bn. Libya: 2023 Article IV Consultation-Press Release; Staff Report; and Statement by the Executive Director for Libya, IMF Staff Country Reports, 2023(201), A001. Retrieved Nov 17, 2023, from https://doi. org/10.5089/9798400243578.002.A001. 115 Libyan Bureau of Statistics and Census. 2022. “Preliminary Results for National Labor Force Survey”. 116 Ibid. 117 The SSF has its own revenues and covers all Libyan territories, based in Tripoli. 118 Known as Social Security Fund, but not to be confused with the Social Solidarity Fund (SSF). 119 IOM and UN Secretary-General’s Special Adviser on Solutions to Internal Displacement. 120 Irhiam, Hend R., Michael G. Schaeffer, and Kanae Watanabe, editors. 2023. The Long Road to Inclusive Institutions in Libya: A Sourcebook of Challenges and Needs. International Development in Focus series. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi:10.1596/978-1-4648-1922-3. 121 UNDP. Multidimensional Poverty Index 2023. https://hdr.undp.org/sites/default/files/Country-Profiles/MPI/LBY.pdf. Detailed Sector Assessments 97 Figure 27: SPJ Buildings and Services in Impacted Municipalities 9 8 7 8 No. of buildings 6 5 4 3 4 2 1 1 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 1 1 0 Derna Soussa Al Bayda Al Marj Shahaat Benghazi Municipality Social Security Administration office Social Solidarity Fund office Non-residential MOSA office MOSA Residential facility Ministry of Labor employment office Source: Assessment team. 15 percent of households in the country are female- households, already socially vulnerable groups headed households. National unemployment stood (female heads of households, people with at 15.3 percent in 2022, with female unemployment disabilities), and workers in the informal economy. at 18.4 percent, compared to males at 13.3 percent.122 Data on damage to SPJ infrastructure became gradually available; but data on SPJ losses through Food insecurity, on the other hand, has increased loss of productive assets, or death or injury of dramatically in the past few years, driven by breadwinners were scarce and unreliable at the disruption in the food supply and price increases of time of producing this RDNA. An exception was staple foods due to the pandemic and the Russia’s data on the loss of housing. Good data allowed for invasion of Ukraine. Prices of essential goods, the calculation of cash transfer needs to displaced including housing, food and drinks, water, gas and households to address aspects of fragility, in addition transport, have contributed to high inflation since to housing needs covered under the Urban sector. 2021, impacting households across the welfare However, the need to address livelihood losses was spectrum and making many more vulnerable to calculated based on a worst-case scenario whereby economic hardship.123 In 2021, the incidence of food all the informal sector is assumed to have incurred insecurity was estimated at 14 percent, with two some level of loss and qualifies for income support. percent of the population considered severely food insecure, and displaced households being twice With respect to SPJ damage, while there is limited as likely to be food insecure as non-displaced.124 data on the status of social protection programs in Average expenditures on food constituted the bulk the East, the storm damaged several institutions, of household expenditures at 63 percent of total including physical facilities and infrastructure. Out of expenditure, leaving households highly vulnerable to the twenty municipalities covered in the assessment, shocks.125 only five have social protection and jobs institution. These five municipalities were in fact the most Assessment of Disaster Effects impacted by the floods.126 This implies that these institutions cover a wide geographic scope and, potentially, as a result of the floods, SPJ services The storm has substantially disrupted social and benefits were interrupted beyond these five protection services that would have supported the municipalities. A summary of SPJ sector institutions affected populations, including flood-displaced in these five municipalities is given in Table 18. 122 Libyan Bureau of Statistics and Census. 2022. “Preliminary Results for National Labor Force Survey”. 123 World Bank. September 2022. Libya economic monitor. https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/publication/libya- economic-monitor-september-2022. 124 Based on Libya Vulnerability, Shocks, and Coping Mechanisms Survey (VSCM-S) conducted in 2021. 125 Ibid. 126 According to WB calculations. 98 Detailed Sector Assessments With respect to SPJ damage, around 26 percent of buildings were destroyed and an employment center SPJ sector infrastructure was either destroyed or was partially damaged; followed by Soussa where a partially damaged across the five most impacted SSA building was partially damaged and maintained municipalities, with no damages reported in partial functionality. Damage and functionality of SPJ the 15 other municipalities covered under this infrastructure in the five municipalities are depicted RDNA. While partially destroyed SPJ offices and in Figure 28, and the estimated costs of this damage facilities maintained functionality post-catastrophe, are given in Table 19. Additionally, many Libyans destroyed infrastructure resulted in the complete lost their national ID and identification numbers, loss of functionality in nine percent of SPJ making registration and assistance more difficult. institutions, and a partial reduction in functionality However, the Civil Registry Administration under the in another nine percent. The bulk of SPJ damage Ministry of Interior has responded quickly to replace was in the municipality of Derna, where two SSA identification papers. Figure 28: Status of 25 SPJ Buildings 20 No. of SPJ buildings 15 10 5 0 Functioning Partially Not functioning No observable Partially Destroyed functioning damage damaged Source: Assessment team. Table 18: SPJ Damage Inventory Table Partially Completely Total Cost Total Asset Types Baseline Damaged destroyed (US$ millions) (LYD millions) DAMAGE SSA offices 16 1 2 US$ 343,357 1,650,000 LYD MOL employment centers 3 1 US$ 31,214 150,000 LYD Total 19 2 2 US$ 374,571 1,800,000 LYD Source: Assessment team. Table 19: SPJ Damages by Municipality127 Total Damage # Municipality US$ LYD 1 Derna 343,357 1,650,000 2 Soussa 31,214 150,000 Total 374,571 1,800,000 Source: Assessment team. 127 Other municipalities covered under the geographic scope of the RDNA have reported no damages to the SPJ-related assets. Detailed Sector Assessments 99 capital. Based on the estimated value of community Impact of Floods   assets, the five most impacted municipalities are Shahaat, Soussa, Benghazi, Derna, and Al Bayda. The floods have deepened household challenges at many levels, causing displacement, food insecurity, The Social Protection recovery strategy should poverty, and loss of livelihoods and income. As a provide poor households with assistance, requiring result, many households were faced by compounding US$ 112 million. During early recovery, the proposed crises and became unable to cope. At a time when SPJ interventions provide households affected by increasing numbers of IDPs were returning to their multidimensional poverty and loss of livelihood municipalities and towns, the catastrophe reversed and income with larger cash transfers to ensure this trend and swelled the number of IDPs by 42,045 emergency conditions are addressed and children individuals128 who needed assistance. Derna (40 are protected. These amounts are reduced in the percent), Al Bayda (12 percent) and Shahaat (10 second year, i.e., during the subsequent 12 months, percent) bore the brunt of displacement.129 Food before they are phased out entirely after 24 months insecurity, which was prevalent prior to the disaster, as households regain essential services and re- was exacerbated as thousands of families were establish their livelihoods. The proposed SPJ left without access to food or shelter, especially in intervention for displaced households is proposed Derna, according to the WFP. Additionally, at a time for one year only, given the prioritized focus on when unemployment in Libya was 15.3 percent prior reconstructing and rehabilitating houses under to the floods,130 the floods have caused the loss of the Urban sector proposed interventions. These productive assets of many households and disrupted households will also receive income or consumption wage employment for many more. Finally, the floods support (the other two SPJ interventions) based have affected education and health. on their economic activities (wage employment or informal sector). The interventions will consider the Sectoral Recovery Strategy specific needs of diverse households, such as those and Needs Assessment that may include a higher proportion of vulnerable individuals, including female-headed households, given that women are often disproportionally An estimated 6,657 households were displaced, affected by poverty and livelihood disruption; and which constitutes 15 percent of Libya’s population, the differential impact of such interventions based with Derna and Soussa experiencing the brunt of on gender dynamics within households. housing damage and destruction, and as a result the highest number of displaced populations. Most Below is a detailed description of the three proposed displaced households currently reside with relatives interventions: in neighboring municipalities, in schools or rental units, while awaiting the reconstruction of their i. Emergency cash transfer (ECT) to displaced houses. At the same time, while the majority of households to address aspects of fragility breadwinners in these municipalities are employed resulting from loss of shelter. Based on existing in the public sector (86.5 percent)131, 11.2 percent of levels provided by humanitarian agencies, US$ the labor force is in the informal sector and are at 180 is proposed for each of the 6,657 displaced higher risk of livelihood and income loss.132 Finally, households for a period of 12 months. Cash will most of the municipalities within the scope of this ensure that displaced households are able to RDNA also experienced mild to severe destruction prioritize their needs, recover essential items they of community assets across all sectors which is may have lost, and cope with displacement while impacting access to essential services such as health, reducing the risk of negative coping mechanisms. education, water, etc., and potentially increasing Based on the number of displaced households, multidimensional poverty and eroding human the cost is estimated at US$ 14,163,934. 128 International Rescue Committee. https://www.rescue.org/eu/press-release/flooding-libya-emblematic-climate-change- and-conflict-vulnerable-communities-warns. 129 International Organization of Migration. https://dtm.iom.int/reports/libya-storm-daniel-flash-update-7-30-september-2023?close=true%20%5d. 130 Ibid. 131 Libya Employment Survey (2022). Libya Bureau of Statistics and Census. 132 Informality is broadly based on social security pension contributions estimated at 11.2 percent by the Bureau of Statistics and Census (2022). 100 Detailed Sector Assessments ii. Income support to address livelihood and households restore their livelihoods (through, income loss for households who presumably for instance, physical rehabilitation of facilities, lost their productive assets as a result of the replacement or repair of assets etc.). catastrophic floods. A cash transfer of US$ 180 for 12 months that is reduced to US$ 150 in the iii. Consumption support for formal wage earners subsequent 12 months is proposed to provide (in the public and private sectors) to address households with income support until they can the increase in multidimensional poverty. From replace their productive assets. Data on the partial damage to the complete destruction of number of households who have experienced community assets in all municipalities within livelihood loss is not available. Therefore, the the scope of the RDNA, residents of these size of the informal sector was used as a proxy municipalities are highly likely to experience for those who may have lost their productive major disruptions of essential services under assets and livelihoods as a result of the flooding. vital sectors such as Health, Education, WASH, According to social security data, 11.2 percent of etc. In order to ensure that households are those who are active do not make social security able to secure food and clean water and seek contributions. Based on the average household essential services in neighboring municipalities, size in Libya, roughly 19,009 households rely on consumption support to all wage earners, i.e., income from the informal sector. The estimated those who make social security contributions needs to provide income support for the informal (88.8 percent of the labor force) is proposed. The sector is US$ 75,274,505 (US$ 41,058,821 income proposal is for US$ 100 for 12 months and US$ support in the first year and US$ 34,215,684 50 in the subsequent 12 months. The estimated income support in the second year). These need to provide consumption support for the payments will also cover informal employees formal sector is US$ 22,606,791 (USD 15,071,194 who have been displaced; so, in other words, to cover the consumption support during the first IDPs may receive income support on top of the year and US$ 7,535,597 to cover consumption 12-month fragility ECT (first intervention). In support for the second year). Similar to the addition to this support, the Libyan Government informal sector support, these payments will also may consider targeted133 in-kind support to help cover wage employees who have been displaced. Figure 29: Short Term Needs (0–12 months) Intervention Description Total (US$) Emergency cash transfers to US$ 180 to the 6,657 displaced households for 14,163,934 displaced households twelve months Income support for households US$ 180 to households in the informal sector (i.e., not 41,058,821 in the informal sector contributing to social security), for twelve months Consumption support for cash top-up of US$ 100 to heads of households who are 15,071,194 households in the formal sector wage employed in the public and private sectors Total 70,293,949 Source: Assessment team. 133 The design of such intervention requires data on the impact of the storm on the most vital economic industries in the covered areas, particularly in the informal economy. Detailed Sector Assessments 101 Figure 30: Medium Term Needs (13–24 months) Intervention Description Total (US$) Income support for households in The cash transfer to households in the informal sector is 34,215,684 the informal sector reduced to US$ 150 for the next twelve months Consumption support for The cash top-up to wage-employed is reduced to US$ 50 for 7,535,597 households in the formal sector the next twelve months Total 41,751,281 Source: Assessment team. Linkages with Cross-Cutting response ought to be made available in advance, along with disaster preparedness protocols, roles, Themes134 and responsibilities, that are pre-established with other public institutions. As Libya increasingly becomes more vulnerable to a multitude of climate threats, including an increasing trend in the frequency and intensity of disasters Limitations such as droughts, (flash) floods, sandstorms, storm The most significant limitation under the SPJ sector is surges and desertification due to climate change, the lack of baseline data on poverty and vulnerability the role of the SPJ sector becomes crucial in building in Libya, which would be the starting point for social resilience capacity through disaster management, assistance. Similarly, the design and implementation warning, and response. Besides the need to adopt modality of the proposed interventions needs to be a poverty-targeting model for social assistance to discussed with the relevant Libyan institutions to tackle poverty and vulnerability among Libyans in a validate the respective assumptions and ensure more impactful manner, the SPJ system can benefit that they build on and complement ongoing from a national social registry that is geospatially efforts. Finally, delivery systems that support linked to climate conditions which would enable social protection operations, from registration to the system to alert households based on their assessment of needs and benefits and payments, geographic locations and respond to disasters need to be developed. swiftly. Contingency funding to prepare for such a 134 Cross-cutting themes include: FCV, Climate Change, Gender, Governance, and Social Inclusion. 102 Detailed Sector Assessments CULTURAL HERITAGE Libya’s Cultural Heritage provides a window shrines of notable leaders and religious schools and to understanding the country’s unique history, institutions (madrasas). influenced by the Greek, Roman, Byzantine, and Islamic periods. The country is home to notable Despite the rich cultural diversity, Libya’s heritage heritage sites, of which five are inscribed as is neglected and decaying. In 2016, the UNESCO UNESCO World Heritage sites, and three are on the World Heritage Committee placed Libya’s five Tentative List. The sites in East Libya, which include World Heritage sites on its List of World Heritage archeological and historical sites, museums, places in Danger due to the prevailing conflict at the of worship, and monuments, are all an essential part time.139 Weaknesses in the rule of law in the country, of Libya’s Cultural Heritage and the formation of local particularly in the wake of conflict, created a market identities, offering places for religious, recreational, for stolen archaeological artifacts. Furthermore, and other activities which bind people together. environmental conditions and expanding human settlements have affected archaeological sites. Lack Various archaeological, historical, and religious of law enforcement and the absence of planning sites are located in eastern Libya. Overall, 687 permission processes have enabled the clearance cultural properties have been identified, including of important sites for construction and agricultural 619 religious sites (485 mosques, eight churches, expansion and the demolition of heritage buildings 126 sites of religious importance135), 14 monuments, for new developments. Various museums and 27 archaeological sites,136 20 historical sites137 and archaeological sites across the country have been four museums.138 The ‘Archaeological Site of Cyrene’, victims of looting and vandalism.140 a UNESCO World Heritage site, is a Greek colony that became one of the principal urban centers of At an institutional level, Cultural Heritage is the Hellenic world. Apollonia, a Greco-Roman city, overseen by the Department of Antiquities (DOA), is known for its archaeological remains, including a which coordinates with local municipalities to theater and Odeon. Other sites include Ptolemais, a manage these sites. However, DOA faces various historical city with a Roman theater and bathhouse, challenges in managing cultural sites in Libya. and Tocra, a Greco-Roman archaeological site with The DOA requires additional financial resources to extensive city walls, Roman baths, and a necropolis. protect the sites and support restoration efforts. Derna is an ancient coastal town with archaeological Technical assistance and training are required for finds belonging to the ancient colony of Darnis, the department’s staff to conserve archaeological such as Roman baths, Byzantine churches, and sites, develop institutional mechanisms to safeguard Ottoman-era architecture. Properties of historical cultural heritage, and emergency preparedness and cultural significance include the Great Mosque and response. Institutional coordination is required of Derna, one of the oldest mosques in North Africa, to manage properties in remote areas and protect and the Mosque of Al-Sahaba. The city also boasts them from looting and vandalism. 141 sites of importance for Islamic heritage, including 135 This includes tombs, cemeteries, religious schools, and institutions (madrasas) and facilities attached to mosques. 136 This includes sites with archaeological remains. 137 This includes palaces, castles, and sites of historical significance. 138 This includes museums and cultural facilities. 139 https://whc.unesco.org/en/decisions/6769. 140 https://www.brookings.edu/articles/heritage-democracy-and-development-in-libya/. 141 https://malichproject.wordpress.com/emergency-reponse-eastern-libya/. Detailed Sector Assessments 103 equivalent to US$ 13 million (LYD 63.7 million),144 as Assessment of Disaster well as those for mitigating new risks and increased Effects: Damage and Loss vulnerabilities, equivalent to US$ 49.6 million (LYD Estimates142 242.1 million). Losses also include loss of revenue associated with temporary closure or non-availability of sites, equivalent to US$ 1.8 million (LYD 8.9 million).145 Storm Daniel has had a devastating impact on Cultural Heritage, causing damage of US$ 108.7 million (LYD Damage was distributed across seven municipalities. 530.7 million). Seven of the 20 municipalities impacted The floods affected Shahaat municipality the most by the storm had cultural properties affected. It has (70 percent), followed by Al Bayda (11 percent), Al been estimated that around 10 percent of identified Marj (eight percent), Benghazi (five percent), Derna cultural properties have been affected, with 62 cultural (three percent) and Soussa (three percent) (Table properties (9 percent) partially damaged and five 2). In Al Bayda, 11 mosques and two archaeological completely destroyed (1 percent). The storm has also sites were partially damaged, while ten mosques and left 11 percent of cultural properties partially or not two archaeological sites were partially functioning. It functioning, with 45 partially functioning (6.5 percent) has been noted that rubble lining the streets outside and 32 not functioning (4.5 percent) (Table 1). Regarding the mosques has hindered access to religious sites. religious sites, total damages of US$ 10.7 million (LYD Al-Marj is a historically significant city in East Libya, 52.4 million) have been recorded. Of the 485 mosques which was founded on the site of the ancient city identified, 31 were partially damaged, and five were of Barca. It is home to numerous religious sites completely destroyed, incurring damage of US$ 10.4 (mosques and churches) as well as archaeological million (LYD 50.9 million). For churches, one out of eight and historical landmarks, including the Monumento identified was partially damaged, incurring damage Mussolini and Almnejrat Ancient Cemetery, which of US$ 0.3 million (LYD 1.5 million). For monuments, dates to the pre-Byzantine era. Two archaeological archaeological and historical sites and museums, sites were partially damaged and are partially a total damage of US$ 98 million (LYD 478.2 million) functional, including an Italian castle. As for Benghazi, has been recorded. The storm damaged none of the nine mosques were partially damaged, with eight 14 monuments identified, while archaeological sites mosques partially functioning and 18 not functioning. have been severely impacted, whereby 20 of 27 have been partially damaged, incurring damage of US$ 80 Derna, which has been at the epicenter of the floods, million (LYD 390.4 million). For historical sites, eight has seen damage of US$ 3.1 million (LYD 15.2 million). of 20 have been partially damaged, incurring damage Four mosques have been completely destroyed, of US$ 16 million (LYD 78.1 million). Two of the four and three partially damaged. Heavy damage was recorded museums were impacted by the flooding, recorded in Al-Sahaba Mosque and its library, which incurring damage of US$ 2 million (LYD 9.76 million).143 has immense religious importance. Damage was also recorded to Al-Ateeq mosque, one of Derna’s most Losses from Storm Daniel are estimated to be significant Islamic heritage sites. The mosque dates US$ 64.5 million (LYD 314.7 million). The storm has to the 7th century, rendering it one of North Africa’s increased the vulnerability of many of these cultural oldest mosques. Flooding has also damaged four properties and exposed them to further risks. In mosques and two Quran teaching centers in the Abu particular, archaeological and historical sites have Mansour and Al-Jubaila neighborhoods. Mosques do become more vulnerable to looting and vandalism. The not only hold religious significance but also act as floods have also uncovered new sites and artifacts, shelters and distribution points during crises. In Derna, which require urgent documentation and protection. two mosques are used to shelter flood survivors, and Therefore, the calculation of losses considers the several are used across the city to distribute non- costs of emergency intervention and documentation, food aid and emergency response supplies. The flood 142 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the cultural property is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total cultural property value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the cultural property has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the cultural property. 143 Damage could have occurred internally, affecting artefacts and movable cultural property. 144 Takes into account costs associated with implementing temporary emergency measures to prevent further damage to culture properties. 145 The calculation takes into account functionality of the sites. Due to the security situation, tourism has not been taken into account in revenue losses. The majority of the sites in the assessment do not have entry tickets/ access costs associated to them, therefore costs are considered to be conservative. 104 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 31: Damage and Loss Inventory Table Partially Completely Total Total   Baseline Damaged Destroyed (US$ million) (LYD million) DAMAGE Religious Sites 619 32 5 10.74 52.41 Mosque 485 31 5 10.44 50.95 Church 8 1 - 0.30 1.46 Other sites of Religious 126 - - - - Importance Monuments 14 - - - - Archaeological Sites 27 20 - 80.00 390.40 Historical Sites 20 8 - 16.00 78.08 Museums 7 2 - 2.00 9.76 Total 687 62 5 108.74 530.65 LOSSES Cost of emergency intervention and documentation 13.04 63.67 Costs to mitigate new risks and increased vulnerabilities 49.61 242.13 Loss of revenue associated with temporary closure or non-availability 1.82 8.89 Total 64.48 314.70 TOTAL DAMAGES AND LOSSES 173.23 845.36 Source: Assessment team. has also exposed archaeological remains in Derna, Figure 32: Damage by Municipality including fortifications dating back to ancient Darnis, which require urgent physical and legal protection.146 0% Flooding in Soussa affected various sites, causing damage of US$ 14 million (LYD 68.2 million). Soussa, 3% 3% 5% a small port town dating back to 630 BC, is home to the Apollonia archeological site, which includes 8% Roman Baths, an amphitheater, and a Central Basilica church. The city sustained partial damage to seven mosques, one church, two museums, 11% two archeological sites and two historical sites, all of which are partially functioning. While the archaeological sites were partially damaged, the 70% site museum building was flooded, putting various artifacts at risk. The flooding also partially damaged the Sinyara Italian Castle. The storm uncovered new archeological features, which should be cataloged and preserved. The Old Mosque in the city is being Shahaat Al Bayda Al Marj Benghazi used for aid storage and distribution. Derna Soussa Al Abyar 146 https://malichproject.wordpress.com/emergency-reponse-eastern-libya/. Detailed Sector Assessments 105 Figure 33: Damage to Cultural Assets in the city of Shahhat Source: Assessment team. Seventy percent of the damage was recorded in uncovered a canal near Marcus Aurelius’ arch, which Shahaat municipality, at around US$ 68.6 million provides an opportunity to explore and learn more (LYD 334.8 million). Shahhat is home to ruins from the about the ancient city. However, the canal will need ancient city of Cyrene, a UNESCO World Heritage site to be stabilized to prevent further damage. dating back to 631 BC. Of the 45 cultural properties identified in the city, nearly half were damaged (44 percent) or destroyed (2.2 percent), of which most are Linking Effects to Human part of the ancient city of Cyrene. Flooding destroyed Impacts one religious facility and partially damaged 14 archeological sites, and six historical sites. Most The recent floods have had cascading effects of the sites affected are part of the UNESCO- beyond tangible and built cultural heritage, affecting designated site, the ‘Archaeological Site of Cyrene’, the living conditions of those using and benefitting which includes the Museum of Sculptures, the from these cultural properties. The destruction or Temple of Zeus, the Spring of Apollo, the Sanctuary damage to historical sites, monuments, and artifacts of Apollo, and the Baths of Augustus, which were not only erases a community’s tangible connection all damaged by the floods. The floods carved to its past but can also disrupt related livelihoods. furrows in the site, undermining the foundations Damage to religious sites can create disruptions of some structures which could lead to collapse if beyond the physical impacts; these sites often serve not treated with utmost urgency.147 The flooding has as community centers, providing essential services also caused debris to partially cover some sites, and support. This was particularly evident in the requiring specialized clearing. In addition, the floods aftermath of the floods, whereby many mosques 147 https://malichproject.wordpress.com/emergency-reponse-eastern-libya/. 106 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 20: Damage and Losses by Municipality Total Damage Total Loss Total Damage + Loss (US$ millions) (US$ millions) (US$ millions) Municipality US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ LYD Al Abraq - - 0.17 0.81 0.17 0.81 Al Abyar 0.24 1.17 0.14 0.68 0.38 1.85 Al Bayda 10.64 51.92 5.90 28.79 16.54 80.72 Al Marj 8.00 39.04 4.86 23.72 12.86 62.76 Al Qayqab - - - - - - Al Qubah - - - - - - Benghazi 4.16 20.30 2.34 11.41 6.50 31.71 Derna 3.12 15.23 1.21 5.88 4.33 21.11 Gemienis - - - - - - Jardas Al Abid - - - - - - Medouar Al Zetoun - - - - - - Ra’s Al Hilal - - - - - - Sahel Al Jabal - - - - - - Shahaat 68.60 334.77 41.87 204.33 110.47 539.10 Soussa 13.98 68.22 7.91 38.61 21.89 106.84 Suloug - - 0.10 0.48 0.10 0.48 Toukara - - - - - - Umar Al Mukhtar - - - - - - Umm Arazam - - - - - - Wardam - - - - - - Total 108.74 531.00 64.49 314.71 173.23 845.36 Source: Assessment team. were being used as shelters by the displaced or points also been observed in the cultural and creative to access non-food aid and emergency response industries, notably in the city of Derna, including supplies. The floods have also affected facilities, the destruction of the Derna Cultural House, thus tools and offices related to cultural heritage, which affecting the livelihoods of artists and cultural are needed by culture professionals and government professionals, and overall community access to officials to monitor and safeguard heritage. The cultural life. Cultural traditions and practices are damage caused to these facilities is likely to affect not just a means for making a living. They foster a livelihoods and the operation of culture-related sense of identity, belonging, and continuity, helping institutions. The consequences of such damage are communities connect with their past and shape not gender-neutral, as women in Libya often play their future. Preserving cultural heritage not only essential roles in cultural production, safeguarding maintains a link to shared history but also promotes and religious communities. Furthermore, one of the social cohesion, cultural diversity, and the wellbeing greatest yet least quantifiable losses is the stifling of individuals and societies, contributing to a deeper of creative expression among affected communities. understanding of the human experience and our Though harder to quantify, important damage has collective heritage. Detailed Sector Assessments 107 In the short term, the recovery must focus on Recovery Needs and Strategy immediate needs to protect the cultural properties from further damage and/or collapse, emergency The recovery investment needs for Cultural Heritage protection of newly uncovered sites and artifacts, are estimated at US$ 169.6 million (LYD 827.8 and ensure continuity of services, particularly those million), which were calculated based on recovery regularly accessed by local communities. In terms needs, including: the reconstruction of destroyed of infrastructure reconstruction, this would cover and partly damaged cultural properties, surveying the following: (1) implement emergency measures and safeguarding uncovered archaeological remains such as shoring, propping, sheltering, structural and artifacts, implementing temporary measures reinforcements, evacuation of damaged and and restoring fundamental services while reparation recently exposed cultural properties and artifacts works are completed, and technical assistance. to prevent further damage and/or collapse; (2) carry When estimating the costs for recovery, a premium out emergency management and conservation (30 percent) was factored in for BBB, considering the measures and inventories to document the extent current technical and institutional context of Cultural of damage to existing and newly uncovered cultural Heritage in Libya. The total investment needs for properties and artifacts, identify areas that are at infrastructure reconstruction are estimated at US$ risk of further collapse, and ensure adequate storage 141.4 million (LYD 689.9 million), and US$ 28.3 million of artifacts; (3) repair cultural properties as feasible (LYD 138 million) for service delivery restoration, to restore function and ensure their preservation, which considers physical restoration (US$ 13.3 particularly for sites regularly accessed by local million/ LYD 98.7 million), and technical assistance communities. In terms of service delivery, recovery (US$ 15 million/ LYD 135.9 million). (Table 21) must cover the physical restoration of fundamental services provided by cultural properties, and A phased approach is recommended to recover technical assistance to local authorities and and rebuild Cultural Heritage. Prioritization of professionals for emergency response to restore interventions has been structured so that urgent governance and legal arrangements to ensure the assistance is provided where needed, while physical and legal protection of cultural properties. secondary measures are aimed towards long-term Estimated recovery investment needs for the short- recovery and resilience against future climate- term has been estimated at US$ 50.8 million (LYD induced disasters. (Table 22) 248.3 million). Table 21: Cultural Heritage Restoration Costs Category Total (US$) Total (LYD) Infrastructure Reconstruction 141.36 689.85 Implement emergency measures to prevent further damage and/or collapse 5.94 28.97 Carry out management measures, develop inventories, and conservation to avoid loss 15.83 125.55 Repair cultural properties as feasible to restore function and ensure their preservation 119.59 1,018.21 and restoration Service Delivery Restoration 28.27 137.97 Physical Restoration 13.29 98.65 Restoring fundamental services provided by cultural facilities 6.36 31.04 Repair cultural properties as feasible to restore function 6.93 67.60 Technical Assistance 14.98 135.90 Re-establishment and strengthening of governance and technical capacity 9.19 83.47 Enforce adequate legal measures to prevent demolition 3.82 33.11 Development of a DRR Strategy for Cultural Heritage 1.98 19.32 Total needs 169.63 827.82 Source: Assessment team. 108 Detailed Sector Assessments In the medium term, the recovery must focus on Technical assistance would be required to: (1) infrastructure reconstruction to ensure the repair re-establish and strengthen the governance of assets to restore function, as well as technical arrangements and technical capacities of institutions assistance to the governmental institutions to and culture professionals involved in the protection improve the management and protection of Cultural of Cultural Heritage, including the integration of Heritage. In terms of infrastructure reconstruction culture and cultural heritage in urban recovery and service delivery, efforts should focus on (1) plans and strategies, (2) revise and enforce legal repairing cultural properties to restore function and measures to prevent future demolition of Cultural ensure their preservation, and where applicable, Heritage, and (3) develop a DRM strategy for Cultural ensuring their integration into the city’s urban fabric. Heritage, which ensures emergency preparedness There would still be a need to (2) continue shoring, and response for protection in the event of future propping, sheltering, structural reinforcements, occurrences. Estimated recovery investment needs evacuation, and other protective measures and (3) for the medium term have been estimated to be US$ carry out further management and conservation 118.7 million (LYD 579.4 million). measures and inventories as excavations continue. Table 22: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction of Cultural Heritage Short Term Medium Term Total cost Total Cost in US$ in LYD Category US$ million LYD million US$ million LYD million million million Infrastructure Reconstruction 42.41 206.95 98.95 482.89 141.36 689.85 Implement measures to prevent 5.94 28.97 - - 5.94 28.97 further damage and/or collapse Carry out management measures, 5.94 28.97 9.90 48.29 15.83 125.55 develop inventories, and conservation to avoid loss Repair cultural properties as feasible 30.53 149.01 89.06 434.60 119.59 1,018.21 to restore function and ensure their preservation and restoration Service Delivery Restoration 8.48 41.39 19.79 96.58 28.27 137.97 Physical Restoration 6.36 31.04 6.93 33.80 13.29 98.65 Restoring fundamental services 6.36 31.04 - - 6.36 31.04 provided by cultural facilities Repair cultural properties as feasible - - 6.93 33.80 6.93 67.60 to restore function and ensure their preservation and restoration Technical Assistance 2.12 10.35 12.86 62.78 14.98 135.90 Re-establishment and strengthening 1.27 6.21 7.92 38.63 9.19 83.47 of governance and technical capacity Enforce adequate legal measures to 0.85 4.14 2.97 14.49 3.82 33.11 prevent demolition Development of a DRR Strategy for - - 1.98 9.66 1.98 19.32 the Culture Sector Total 50.89 248.34 118.74 579.47 169.63 827.82 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 109 The lack of monitoring and looting have contributed to the damage of many of the cultural properties, Linkages with Cross-Cutting which are further exacerbated by weak institutional Themes arrangements and legislation that safeguards Cultural Heritage. When developing future technical Conservation of Cultural Heritage has been neglected assistance activities, it is essential to consider both since the deterioration of the security situation in site-specific management challenges and protection, Libya. The instability caused by conflict has not only as well as national cultural heritage protection. At diverted resources away from the conservation and the site level, it is recommended to develop and protection of cultural heritage but weakened the update management plans, comprising emergency ability to physically protect archaeological sites, preparedness and risk management, for each site, resulting in the theft of artifacts and illicit trafficking to include measures to protect sites from further of cultural property. Museums and archaeological erosion, manage visitor access and monitor threats. and historical sites are victims of looting and For sites that have been designated as UNESCO World trafficking, resulting in the loss of countless cultural Heritage properties or are on Libya’s Tentative List artifacts. Over the past 12 years, maintenance and for potential future nomination, this should be done restoration efforts for historical sites have been in consultation with UNESCO and its Advisory Bodies, hampered, leading to further deterioration. Many including the International Council on Monuments experts, archaeologists, and champions of cultural and Sites (ICOMOS), International Center for the heritage have been forced to flee conflict-affected Study of the Preservation and Restoration of Cultural areas, resulting in the loss of local expertise essential Property (ICCROM) and International Union for the for preserving cultural heritage. Furthermore, Conservation of Nature (IUCN). At the national level, conflict-induced displacement of local communities there is a need to review and strengthen subordinate has disrupted the cultural continuity and social legal authorities and governance structures for fabric of many areas, potentially leading to the cultural heritage, which would work across various disruption and loss of intangible cultural heritage, national departments and sub-national governments which is demonstrated through traditional practices, (municipalities). There would also be a need to review knowledge, and cultural identity. The effects are the current legislation on cultural heritage and, if further damaging to minority groups, who may have necessary, update it in order to ensure the protection, their own, unique means of cultural expression. conservation, and safeguarding of cultural heritage. Moreover, there is a need to improve governance This would also require defining cultural heritage in arrangements in the sector to support the protection the context of Libya. and safeguarding of Cultural Heritage, particularly towards integrating resilience to disasters and future At a broader level, technical activities should climate related risks. In Libya, climate change is a consider wider capacity-building and awareness threat multiplier, and the effects of climate change activities beyond the institutions mentioned above. can exacerbate existing stresses, such as floods, The profession of cultural heritage in Libya is quite sandstorms, storm surges, and desertification. If not limited, and capacity building would support the integrated, this could lead to loss of various sites of strengthening of the profession as a whole. It is also heritage value since many are made from materials essential to engage local communities in protecting subject to increased weathering and accelerated cultural heritage as it fosters a sense of ownership, decay. stewardship, and pride in preserving their heritage. Communities possess valuable traditional knowledge and practices that can be sustainable in Limitations safeguarding cultural artifacts and historical sites There are several limitations to the analysis and strengthening social cohesion and identity. conducted for Cultural Heritage. First and Furthermore, cultural heritage could also offer foremost, the damage assessment is only limited economic opportunities through heritage tourism, to the physical status of buildings and to specific and their local involvement could raise awareness categories of cultural properties. It does not about the importance of protecting cultural property consider the damage to movable and immovable against illicit activities such as looting and trafficking, cultural heritage, including that housed in museums, which have previously been recorded in Libya. libraries, and archives, which could have been impacted by damage, looting and/or vandalism. The culture and creative industries, the spaces of cultural expression (workshops, shops/souks, 110 Detailed Sector Assessments theaters), and the impact on artists and cultural be assessed under municipal services and/or professionals are not included in the analysis due to governance. Thirdly, there is limited baseline data, the lack of data. Intangible cultural heritage has not especially for revenue and contribution to the GDP. been considered. Therefore, a more comprehensive Thus, the losses estimated are conservative. Cultural assessment needs to be conducted, covering culture Heritage has been severely affected over the last ten in all its forms, and for all types of cultural and years, and tourism has been limited, affecting the culture-related institutions. Secondly, the overlaps potential revenue from sites. Finally, unit costs for between Cultural Heritage and other sectors imply the assessment have been standardized to calculate damage beyond what is included in this assessment. total damage and needs. For a sector like Cultural For example, buildings of historical interest could Heritage, this is a limitation, as cultural properties be assessed under housing, and departmental have very different values and restoration costs. offices that hold cultural value and artifacts could 111 PRODUCTIVE SECTORS © Seraj Elhouni/Shutterstock.com 112 Detailed Sector Assessments AGRICULTURE In 2022, the share of the agriculture sector (crop, and barley are planted. In summer (when the flood livestock, fisheries, and forestry)148 in Libya’s GDP was occurred), chili, carrots, tomatoes, beans, cucumber, 1.6 percent down from 4.1 percent in 2019.149 In 2021, pepper, eggplant, peas, onions, potatoes, cabbage, the agriculture sector employed around 16.3 percent corn, millet, melons, watermelons, and cantaloupes of the total active population of Libya.150 The total are grown. These products are mainly for internal area of Libya is estimated at 1,760,000 km2. Under consumption but are sometimes also exported to two percent of the land is  arable  and about four neighboring countries. percent is suitable for grazing livestock. Most arable land is in the  Jebel Akhdar  region near  Benghazi Cereal crop production in 2022 was estimated at and the Jifara Plain near Tripoli. The annual rainfall 209,000 MT. The country relies heavily on imports goes from 100 mm to 600 mm per annum. Some (up to 90 percent) to cover its consumption areas have an underground  aquifer, enabling well- requirements, and therefore, domestic production driven irrigation. Between the arable land along has a limited impact on the import requirement. In the coast and the inland desert, there is a 50 km 2022 / 2023 the import requirement was estimated land strip with enough scrub vegetation to support at 3.2 million MT, which is close to the average.155 livestock. The desert dominates the south with occasional oasis cultivation.151 Livestock Crops The animal population of Libya is estimated around 150,000 cattle, 6,500,000 small ruminants, 110,000 Overall, only about 12 percent of the total area of camels, 12,000 horses and donkeys and 15 million 15.4 million hectares is arable. Although 470,000 poultry. Diseases of major economic importance, and hectares are suitable for irrigation, only some zoonotic diseases, are endemic to the country, but 240,000 hectares are currently irrigated due to there is little information about their epidemiology, concerns over the depletion of underground water.152 prevalence, and distribution. Most animal products Given the arid nature of Libya, irrigated farming are for domestic consumption; even so, demand is not systems have always been of crucial importance in covered and needs to be supplemented by imports. generating much of the country’s agricultural output. Most Veterinary Services are carried out under the About 50 percent of cereal production and about 90 responsibility of the National Centre of Animal Health percent of fruit and vegetable production originates (NCAH), which is part of the Ministry of Agriculture from irrigated agriculture.153 The most cultivated and Livestock. Aside from their HQ and the different crops are wheat, barley, olives, dates, citrus, and a regional offices, there are around 50 local NCAH large variety of vegetables, peanuts, and soybeans.154 offices and 300 public veterinary clinics. The overall system may include around 1,000 veterinarians and In the 20 affected municipalities, the overall cropland 2,000 paraprofessionals or support staff, although is around 377,778 ha, of which 27,922 are irrigated. only partial data are available, and are not always The crops are season-specific; during winter, wheat accurate.156 In the affected area the pre-disaster 148 For this assessment, the agriculture is composed of crops and livestock only, forestry and fisheries being included in the environment chapter. 149 Libya - share of economic sectors in the gross domestic product 2012-2022 | Statista. 150 Libya - Employment in Agriculture (percent Of Total Employment) - 2023 Data 2024 Forecast 1971-2021 Historical (tradingeconomics.com). 151 Land | Free Full-Text | A Review of Libyan Soil Databases for Use within an Ecosystem Services Framework (mdpi.com). 152 FAO GIEWS Country Brief on Libya – . 153 http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries/libya/index.stm. 154 Land | Free Full-Text | A Review of Libyan Soil Databases for Use within an Ecosystem Services Framework (mdpi.com). 155 FAO GIEWS Country Brief on Libya – . 156 Libya_REMESA RECOMSA Com Plan Final___.pdf (fao.org). Detailed Sector Assessments 113 livestock number recorded for cattle was 60,325, goats 558,114 and sheep 1,731,291.157 Assessment of Disaster Effects162 The agricultural sector was less affected than other Challenges sectors, as the storm had a more devastating impact along the coastline and less in the upland hinterland. Following the ceasefire agreement in October 2020, Nevertheless, the following two components were the security situation in the country has improved, affected, and considered in the RDNA: crop production facilitating farmers’ access to fields, but the risk of (annual and perennial) and livestock production. The military clashes remains. Farmers report that power main cause of the floods was the high rainfall (up cuts and high prices of inputs, including seeds, to 414 mm in 24 hours), which left a silt layer on fertilizer, and machinery, continue to constrain their the affected agricultural land. The localized strong ability to cultivate land. At the same time, the reduced winds (up to 80 km/h) uprooted perennial crops, and level of investment into the agriculture sector and grapes and fruit trees (citrus, olives, pomegranates, the inefficiency in production systems means plumbs, dates) to a lesser extent. that young people are not interested in farming and move to cities in search of better lives.158 Pre- In total, 16,209 ha of annual crops (mainly vegetables existing water scarcity is further compounded by and some cereals) were affected and lost their climate change with shifts in precipitation patterns harvest, with a value of losses of US$ 8.53 million. and increased evaporation rates. Although Libya In addition, a total of 487,078 grapes and fruit trees depends on imports of most food items159, changes were affected, wherefrom 5,011 trees were uprooted in temperature and rainfall patterns will also disrupt with a value of damages of US$ 1.03 million and have crop growth cycles, and crop yields may decrease to be replanted. On the other hand, this year’s whole by up to 30 percent at 1.5–2°C warming in Libya, grape and fruit production of the remaining affected seriously limiting already constrained domestic food grapes / fruit trees was totally lost, and the losses of production.160 production of the uprooted trees until replanting and maturity are valued at US$ 2.78 million. Deforestation in the Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar region - much of which appears to be caused by the In terms of livestock, a total of 74,363 animals were expansion of agricultural land - contributed to reported dead163, representing approximately 3.2 land degradation and lowered the capacity of the percent of the affected region’s herd, of which 2,112 land to avert runoff and absorb rainfall. Studies were cattle (80 percent cows), 53,632 sheep and indicate that the highest rates of deforestation in 18,619 goats. In addition to the value of the dead the area occurred after the 2011 revolution. This is animals, damage estimated at US$ 21.73 million, likely due to the ensuing conflict and lower capacity herders have also lost their animal products (milk164, and ability of authorities to protect forested areas. offspring and wool165) until the time restocking will It is estimated that some 513 ha a year were lost be completed, and for the animals to reach maturity between 2010 and 2017.161 again, with a loss of production estimated at US$ 42.12 million. The physical constitution of the remaining livestock is also affected, due to the reduced quality of pastureland or depletion of rangeland resources 157 No data were available for poultry. 158 FAO GIEWS Country Brief on Libya –. 159 Libya imports about 75% of its food and relies heavily on irrigation due to its limited renewable water resources (source: https://reports.unocha.org/en/country/libya/card/2r82XSjHkw/ ). 160 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/publication/98508814-21c5-53e6-b36c-912a4ecf9da7. 161 Alawamy, Jamal Suliman, Siva K. Balasundram, Ahmad Husni Mohd. Hanif, and Christopher Teh Boon Sung. 2020. “Detecting and Analyzing Land Use and Land Cover Changes in the Region of Al-Jabal Al-Akhdar, Libya Using Time-Series Landsat Data from 1985 to 2017” Sustainability 12, no. 11: 4490. 162 Only crops and livestock included no data available related to agriculture infrastructures, buildings, or equipment / machinery. 163 Data on poultry was not available. 164 Milk and off-spring only for female animals, an assumption was taken that out of the total number of all the types of livestock affected, 20 percent were male, and 80 percent were female. 165 even when wool is not sold directly, it has still a value as it is mainly for own use – as filling for mattress or pillows, or yarn for carpet making – which might be sold thereafter. 114 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 34: Agriculture Land and Flooding Impact in Northeast Libya Source: Assessment team. Table 23: Agriculture Damage and Loss Inventory Partially affected Completely Total Cost Total Cost Asset Types Units destroyed units (in LD million) (in US$ million) DAMAGE livestock (heads) 74,363 106.03 21.73 perennial crops (plants) 5,011 5.01 1.03 Total Damage 111.04 22.75 LOSSES livestock (heads) 74,363 205.56 42.12 annual crops (Ha) 16,209 41.61 8.53 perennial crops (Ha) 1,218 13.57 2.78 Total Losses 260.73 53.43 Overall damages and losses 371.77 76.18 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 115 after the storm, leading to higher risks of epidemic the estimates of these effects were not included in outbreaks. the table below under damages. Effects on irrigation were included in the Water & Water-Sanitation No data was available on damage to farm buildings sectoral report, and forestry / fisheries were / facilities or equipment / machinery, and therefore, included in the Environment sector report. Table 24: Agriculture Damages and Losses by Municipality166 Total Damage  Total Loss  Total Damage + Loss   # Municipality In US$ million In LYD million In US$ million In LYD million In US$ million In LYD million 1 Al Abraq 25,327.87 123,600 52,235 254,909 77,563 378,509 2 Al Abyar 3,547,027.73 17,309,495 8,502,984 41,494,563 12,050,012 58,804,058 3 Al Bayda 658,190.24 3,211,968 1,264,617 6,171,329 1,922,807 9,383,298 4 Al Marj 4,632,578.46 22,606,983 11,118,524 54,258,398 15,751,103 76,865,381 5 Al Qayqab 363,493.85 1,773,850 811,104 3,958,189 1,174,598 5,732,039 6 Al Qubah 1,179,825.82 5,757,550 2,389,977 11,663,088 3,569,803 17,420,638 7 Benghazi 3,285,976.37 16,035,565 7,197,592 35,124,249 10,483,568 51,159,813 8 Derna 1,075,706.70 5,249,449 2,170,746 10,593,240 3,246,453 15,842,689 9 Gemienis 396,516.39 1,935,000 834,420 4,071,969 1,230,936 6,006,969 10 Jardas Al Abid 195,245.90 952,800 452,174 2,206,609 647,420 3,159,409 11 Medouar Al Zetoun 756,723.16 3,692,809 1,765,002 8,613,208 2,521,725 12,306,017 12 Ra’s Al Hilal 42,971.31 209,700 85,475 417,119 128,447 626,819 13 Sahel Al Jabal 265,789.06 1,297,051 529,119 2,582,102 794,908 3,879,152 14 Shahaat 202,172.13 986,600 430,443 2,100,562 632,615 3,087,162 15 Soussa 663,324.50 3,237,024 1,273,366 6,214,025 1,936,690 9,451,049 16 Suloug 1,502,100.41 7,330,250 3,608,429 17,609,133 5,110,529 24,939,383 17 Toukara 2,072,924.99 10,115,874 4,462,475 21,776,879 6,535,400 31,892,753 18 Umar Al Mukhtar 70,799.18 345,500 146,073 712,836 216,872 1,058,336 19 Umm Arazam 785,676.23 3,834,100 1,574,201 7,682,102 2,359,877 11,516,202 20 Wardam 319,784.84 1,560,550 625,932 3,054,549 945,717 4,615,099 21 outside municipal 711,889.51 3,474,021 4,132,730 20,167,721 4,844,619 23,641,742 areas Total 22,754,044.65 111,039,738 53,427,619 260,726,779 76,181,663 371,766,517 Source: Assessment team. 166 Outside municipal area = areas that are outside the perimeter of municipal borders, where agriculture cropland has also been affected by the floods. 116 Detailed Sector Assessments national food self-sufficiency. Special focus will be Linking Effects to Human given to BBB aspects, leading to a more sustainable Impacts and resilient sector in the face of climate change. In 2023, the WFP estimated that over 324,000 The recovery plan should directly address the needs individuals were in need of food assistance. This of the affected farming and livestock households number has drastically increased since storm and communities through the implementation of Daniel.167 Based on the Multi-Thematic Rapid Needs the proposed recovery interventions while working Assessment, 76 percent of respondents mentioned with the relevant public institutions to strengthen that food prices increased since the floods, 67 percent national systems, thereby contributing to stability, reported that the quantities of food in markets have peace, and the progressive building of individual and decreased, and 53 percent mentioned that some institutional resilience. The UNSDCF ensures close essential food items are no longer available.168 partnerships with the all stakeholders, and serves as an integrated strategic framework for recovery, In Libya, the Monthly Expenditure Basket (MEB) has development, and peacebuilding efforts, reflecting a increased since the Russian invasion of Ukraine by humanitarian-development-peace nexus approach 32 percent. As Libya relies significantly on imports, that addresses the root causes of vulnerability of the the purchasing power of vulnerable households most vulnerable population groups.172 reduced their ability to afford nutritious foods and food staples, raising concerns about the overall The replanting of annual crops will be done through food security situation, leading some to adopt a cash+ transfer modality, which allows farming negative coping strategies, including reducing food households to select inputs, especially in terms of consumption to a limited number of meals per day crop species (seeds) and the quantity and type of and relying on lesser quality food items.169 This fertilizer. This intervention is time-bound and related situation has been aggravated since storm Daniel. to the seasons, and therefore should be prepared According to the Food Security sector’s latest survey, in advance so that farming households are able to the MEB continues to increase170 while 99 percent of acquire the inputs in time. households report difficulties obtaining their daily food due to high food prices.171 A similar package is foreseen for the affected perennial trees that have lost their fruits and require The labor-force has also been affected indirectly by land preparation (to break the silt cover and improve storm Daniel. The agricultural activities are done aeration). either by household members or, more often, by hired migrant wage workers (domestic or foreign). Replacement of the dead animals will be based on a Therefore, the destruction of large areas of annual cash transfer replacement approach (based on the and perennial crops leads to a lack of employment average value of the type of animal lost, so that each opportunities for these wage workers (during beneficiary household can select the preferred type harvest, etc.). On the other hand, in the coming years, of animal from their own known sources (markets). the replanting of the perennial trees and the land This approach also reduces transport costs and puts clearing will require additional wage workers. an emphasis on localization. Recovery Needs and Strategy The vaccination campaign to strengthen herds indirectly affected by the floods (low quality of pasture or grazing land) will be carried out by 50 The main objective of the recovery process is to local NCAH offices, in close collaboration with and reactivate the agricultural and livestock activities under the supervision of the regional NCAH offices. It in the affected regions in the shortest possible will target areas with high epidemiological pressure time. This should support household consumption, or animals to be used for restocking. generate surpluses for markets, and contribute to 167 WFP Libya Country Brief, June 2023 - Libya | ReliefWeb. 168 UNDAC, REACH, 2023, Northeastern Libya Floods 2023, Multi-Thematic Rapid Needs Assessment (MTRNA). 169 Libya Humanitarian Overview 2023 (December 2022) - Libya | ReliefWeb. 170 Food Security Sector, Libya Market Update, October 2022. 171 2 IOM DTM Round 42 August 2022. 172 United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework | UNSMIL (unmissions.org). Detailed Sector Assessments 117 Table 25: Total Cost of Livestock and Crop Recovery Total Cost Total Cost Needs Type (in US$ million) (in LYD million) replanting perennial crops 1.32 6.43 supporting recovery of impacted perennial crop assistance package 0.24 1.19 replanting annual crops 2.56 12.49 restocking livestock 27.90 136.14 reinforcing animal health, vaccination campaign for livestock (ruminants) 1.05 5.14 SMART agriculture training 3.16 15.41 Total Needs 36.23 176.79 Source: Assessment team. The training on SMART agriculture will provide a To some extent, the prioritization criteria have been knowledge base to the farming households on how considered in the sequencing of the interventions, to face the challenges of climate induced events and aside from the estimated market supply potential, adapt their agriculture / livestock rearing practices and in particular for the restocking and replanting in order to increase their sustainability. The training of perennial trees intervention and the need for will also provide innovative techniques to move operational preparation (logistic). towards a more commercially oriented agriculture. The recovery process could be led and coordinated by As no data were available for damage to the Ministry of Agriculture and Livestock (MoAL) and infrastructures, buildings, equipment, and related institutions at the regional and municipality machinery, a field assessment is needed to estimate levels. Activities may also be implemented by the costs for their reconstruction or rehabilitation international or national humanitarian / development and to add these costs to those for recovery needs. stakeholders present in the field. The involvement of the private sector and other local farmers or The most vulnerable affected households (with a livestock keepers’ associations or cooperatives special focus on women / youth-headed households) should be promoted, where available. will be targeted i.e., those with crop production or livestock as their main source of income. The above-mentioned recovery interventions vary between in-kind assistance, cash transfers, and The following criteria to prioritize interventions were services provided by specific MoAL departments. considered: Particular attention should be paid to the localization principle, which will ensure ownership of the recovery 1. Time bound activities (not to miss the next process by local partners and therefore its long- planting season; replanting annual crops). term sustainability. The whole sectoral recovery 2. Reduce further losses / damages (vaccination process should reflect links between emergency - campaign for livestock). recovery - development interventions and should be 3. Value for money (vaccination campaign for consistent with the National Development Plan,173, livestock). while working towards the Sustainable Development 4. Number of beneficiaries targeted (annual crops). Goals of the 2030 Agenda. 5. Availability of inputs (saplings for wine and fruit trees). The way forward could be to link business 6. Preparatory work (livestock market survey). with agricultural activities, which could create employment opportunities and help alleviate some 173 United Nations Sustainable Development Cooperation Framework | UNSMIL (unmissions.org). 118 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 26: Total Cost of Needs by Municipality for Agriculture All type of intervention listed in needs table (see above) total costs total costs District (except * no replanting of perennial trees ) (in LYD million) (in US$ million) Al Abraq * 0.284 0.058 Al Abyar 27.871 5.711 Al Bayda 4.249 0.871 Al Marj 35.100 7.193 Al Qayqab * 2.695 0.552 Al Qubah * 7.836 1.606 Benghazi 25.429 5.211 Derna 7.440 1.525 Gemienis * 3.248 0.666 Jardas Al Abid * 1.802 0.369 Medouar Al Zetoun 5.847 1.198 Ras’ Al Hilal * 0.297 0.061 Sahel Al Jabal 1.795 0.368 Shahaat * 1.402 0.287 Soussa 4.240 0.869 Suloug * 12.271 2.515 Toukara 14.595 2.991 Umar Al Mukhtar * 0.585 0.120 Umm Arazam * 5.223 1.070 Wardam * 2.072 0.425 outside municipal areas 12.512 2.564 Total 176.79 36.23 Source: Assessment team. of the food security concerns, not only focusing them or, if necessary, setting up a specific system on production (crops and livestock) but also related to the recovery process, with particular strengthening the whole supply/demand chain. This emphasis on the disbursement and use of financial would require the identification of SMART climate- resources. resilient agricultural production systems (e.g., plastic tunnels or greenhouses, hydroponics, vertical Communication campaigns are carried out through farming), training in new technologies, facilitated institutional networks, the website, and social access to credit and institutional support to establish networks to reach beneficiaries and the general agriculture-business start-ups. However, to achieve public, mainly to provide information on recovery this, it is essential to facilitate communication operations (dates and places of assistance to be between the public and private sectors, including provided, transfer modalities and composition of the key local investors who can disrupt the status quo of package, criteria for the selection of beneficiaries the agriculture sector in Libya. and operational/administrative requirements to be met) in order to operate in full transparency. In The objectives of monitoring and evaluation are addition, the various implementing actors must to measure results systematically, periodically, submit progress reports and financial updates on and objectively; by producing reports with reliable the disbursement and use of funds in accordance information contributing to transparency of the with the format and timetable previously defined by process. This can be done by using existing systems the donor. of UN agencies and local systems, strengthening Detailed Sector Assessments 119 access to resources and opportunities, should be Linkages with Cross-Cutting considered for women who may be disproportionately Themes affected by the instability in the sector. While the challenges and risks are numerous and significant, Libya’s neglected agricultural sector has shrunk over there are also many opportunities for national and the years, making it more vulnerable to the many international actors to work in partnership to overcome challenges it faces. The effects of climate change have the obstacles on Libya’s path to inclusive, sustainable, been felt through droughts, floods and more frequent and peaceful development.175 dust and sandstorms, which have had a direct impact on the sector. Inadequate policies and protracted conflict Limitations have made the country even more vulnerable to these climate-related events. The economic instability of the Key limitations for data assessment and verification agricultural sector has led many of its workers to seek were largely related to time and access constraints. alternative occupations, mainly in towns. In the context Most of the impact data were derived from satellite of gender, women often play pivotal roles in agricultural imagery and should therefore be considered activities, and the adverse effects of climate change approximate, as there were limited ground cross- can have differential impacts on them. The conflict and checks of the remote-sensing analysis. In the frequent road closures have also drastically reduced agricultural sector, some areas were classified agricultural activity and supplies to urban areas. In as outside the municipality because they were not addition, there are no active agricultural associations properly assigned to a specific municipality. No data or government programs to support farmers, resulting were available / provided on effects on agriculture/ in limited production and access to investment.174 In livestock related to buildings/facilities or equipment/ addition to food insecurity and malnutrition, Libya machinery, even when requested to partners in the continues to struggle with multidimensional poverty, field. Therefore, this must also be considered in the income inequality, low agricultural productivity, and overall estimate reported here. climate change. In addition, challenges, such as limited Table 27: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Agricultural Recovery Short-term early recovery* medium-term* Total Cost Total Cost (1-12 months) (1- 3 years) in US$ in (in LYD Priority Type of intervention US$ LYD US$ LYD million million) 1 annual field crop 2,558,902 12,487,441 - 2.56 12.49 package in cash (seed + fertilizer) 2 preventive vaccination 1,052,459 5,136,000 - 1.05 5.14 campaign livestock (ruminants) 3 impacted perennial 243,499 1,188,275 - 0.24 1.19 crop assistance package (contribution to rent tractor (land prep) & fertilizer) 4 replanting perennial 791,079 3,860,465 527,386 2,573,643 1.32 6.43 crops 5 restocking livestock 16,738,637 81,684,549 11,159,091 54,456,366 27.90 136.14 6 SMART agriculture 947,213 4,622,400 2,210,164 10,785,600 3.16 15.41 training Total interventions 19,772,887 108,979,129 13,896,641 67,815,610 36.23 176.79 Source: Assessment team. 174 Challenges Remain for Agricultural Sector in Libya: Ways Forward - The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy (timep.org). 175 Libya country strategic plan (2023–2025) (wfp.org). 120 Detailed Sector Assessments FINANCIAL SECTOR The Libyan Financial sector is not sufficiently (53.5 percent), Al Bayda (11.4 percent) and Derna (9.6 developed. Decades of central planning and the percent). Other municipalities have on average two dominance of oil revenues have led to a highly bank branches. centralized economy with a predominantly state- owned banking sector (with the shareholder being the CBL), financing government projects. As a result Assessment of Disaster Effects of this structure, Libyan banks did not develop Similar to other sectors, the floods devastated the modern banking tools and approaches, especially financial sector. Based on triangulation of Ipsos in client strategy, risk management, and financial research and analysis from satellite imagery, ground intermediation and inclusion. interviews, and PAI (including social media analytics), the analysis identified 114 bank branches in flooded The banking sector has also been negatively impacted municipalities, of which eight (seven percent) were by the decade-long split of the CBL into western and partially damaged and five (4.3 percent) destroyed. eastern branches during the civil conflict.176 After Derna is the most affected municipality with five 2014, the competing authorities were financed by their partially damaged branches and five destroyed, respective branches of the CBL. The Tripoli-based which is 77 percent of total flood damages to financial government was financed by the CBL branch in Tripoli, infrastructure across all impacted municipalities. which had access to both oil revenue and control of The remaining three partially damaged bank foreign currency reserves. Financing for the eastern- branches outside of Derna are in Al Bayda, Shahhat, based government, beyond salaries and subsidies and Benghazi. approved in the 2014 budget, was provided by the eastern branch of the central bank (CBL al-Bayda). Banking services operate in all municipalities except As CBL al-Bayda received no revenue, expenditures in Derna where they are limited. According to Ipsos were financed through bonds issued by the eastern ground partner findings, “banks in Derna operate as government’s Minister of Finance, which were usual in unaffected areas, while some affected banks purchased by CBL al-Bayda who would capitalize on have opened temporary branches within the city to them by providing credit lines to Libyan commercial provide financial services and procedures. These banks. However, commercial banks were unable to banks are North African Bank, Sahara Bank, and the translate these credit lines into hard currency. The fact Commercial Bank”. As such, the financial sector has that hard currency transactions could only take place received limited support, and those living in Derna with CBL Tripoli led to a drawdown in commercial continue to face obstacles in accessing financial bank reserves in Tripoli and an increase in reserves in services. In other municipalities, banks distribute CBL al-Bayda, with an increasing number of cheques pensions and operate normally, occasionally having that could not be cleared. problems due to a lack of access to cash. In addition, the banking sector was impacted by the Total damage cost estimates amount to US$ imposition of laws in 2013, which overnight forbade 2,559,567 (LYD 12,300,000) based on unit cost interest on loans and deposits. Non-bank financing estimates of US$ 312,142 (LYD 1,500,000) per bank is particularly limited, with few alternatives to bank branch, and assuming that partially damaged financing and almost no capital markets. Private assets are destroyed at 40 percent. The damage property is severely limited and formal financing of assessments in the financial sector are partial due to private sector activities almost nonexistent. Modern limited data. Indeed, while information was collected tools to aid wide distribution and information sharing, on bank branches, there was no data available on such as mobile banking and fintech, are embryonic. ATMs, Points of Sale machines, and other financial sector institutions beyond the banking sector such In terms of pre-flood financial sector infrastructure as insurance and leasing companies, post offices, in impacted areas, a total of 114 bank branches were microfinance institutions, etc. identified that are mainly concentrated in Benghazi 176 The Central Bank of Libya was reinstated as a unified sovereign institution in august 2023. Detailed Sector Assessments 121 Table 28: Damage and Loss Inventory for Banks Partially Completely Total Cost Total Asset Types Baseline damaged destroyed (In US$ million) (In LYD million) DAMAGE Bank Branches 114 8 5 2.5 12.3 Money exchanges / transfer offices 1 0 0 0 0 Total Damage 2.5 12.3 LOSS Bank Branches 114 8 5 0.4 1.9 Money exchanges / transfer offices 1 0 0 0 0 Total Loss 0.4 1.9 Source: Assessment team. Table 29: Damage and Losses by Municipality177 Total Damage Total Loss Total Damage + Loss # Municipality US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ LYD 1 Derna 2,184,996 10,500,000 327,749 1,575,000 2,512,746 12,075,000 2 Al Abraq 3 Soussa 4 Al Bayda 124,857 600,000 18,729 90,000 143,585 690,000 5 Al Marj 6 Sahel Al Jabal 7 Shahaat 124,857 600,000 18,729 90,000 143,585 690,000 8 Jardas Al Abid 9 Medouar Al Zetoun 10 Al Qayqab 11 Ra’s Al Hilal 12 Wardam 13 Umar Al Mukhtar 14 Toukara 15 Benghazi 124,857 600,000 18,729 90,000 143,585 690,000 16 Gemienis 17 Suloug 18 Umm Arazam 19 Al Qubah 20 Al Abyar Total 2,559,567 12,300,000 383,940 1,845,000 2,943,502 14,145,000 Source: Assessment team. 177 Cost estimates are based on IPSOS unit costs of LYD 1,500,000 per bank branch. 122 Detailed Sector Assessments Beyond repairs, in the immediate-to short-term, Linking Effects to Human emergency financing support could be carefully Impact targeted at certain households and businesses directly impacted by the floods for: (i) rebuilding and While in most municipalities financial services delivery repairing housing units and rental housing support is restored, restoration is incomplete in Derna; for vulnerable groups, and (ii) supporting viable thus, preventing some of the city’s inhabitants from businesses and preserving jobs and livelihoods. accessing their funds, and isolating them from the The insurance sector could benefit from technical rest of the world. Residual governance issues in the support and engagement to settle claims for large recently unified CBL are negatively impacting banks assets and in claim settlement policies for more in eastern provinces such as Derna, putting them at a standard claims. Solvency issues need to be carefully disadvantage for a speedy recovery and consequently monitored, given the potential for a large number/ reducing social and financial inclusion of impacted value of claims, and limited absorbing capacity of households, businesses, and communities. the insurance sector. Limited direct support to the most vulnerable policyholders in the event of insurer Recovery Needs and Strategy failure may be considered. Medium-term recovery will require broader The key short-term priority need in the financial stabilization, covering notably the strengthening of sector is to repair and rebuild damaged and destroyed the AML/CFT framework, ensuring adequate bank bank branches to restore financial services. capitalization, reinforcing credit infrastructure Existing constraints and the impaired functioning including the re-opening of the credit registry, of the financial sector in channeling financing will closed since 2011, divesting holdings of the CBL impede reconstruction and recovery efforts if left in commercial banks over the longer run to allow unaddressed, especially in Derna, where damages them to operate independently, strengthening the and service disruption are greatest and need to Islamic finance framework and reinforcing data be addressed as a priority. Further consolidating adequacy and statistical capacity.178 Financial the announced Central Bank reunification and sector reconstruction should further emphasize supporting all financial institutions regardless of digital transformation and digital financial services, their geographic location is crucial for the stability including the latest payment technologies that help and integrity of the financial sector. Beyond the reduce costs, increase access to the unbanked, immediate recovery priorities in the medium-term, and reduce reliance on cash. In addition, initiating the continued efforts by authorities to reunify the the greening of the financial sector to finance CBL would mitigate liquidity risks, boost confidence green transition adaptation and mitigation. Finally, in the banking sector, and foster private sector diversifying financial offerings beyond the banking development. sector would also greatly improve financial intermediation and inclusion. Table 30: Total Cost of Banking Sector Needs Total Cost (in US$ million) - Total Cost (in LYD million) - Needs Type including costs for BBB, etc. including costs for BBB, etc. Need type 1 - rebuilding destroyed bank 1.9 9.2 branches, cost of materials, etc. Need type 2 - rebuilding a modern, 1.9 9.2 inclusive, and resilient financial system Total Needs 3.8 18.4 Source: Assessment team. 178 International Monetary Fund, Article IV, June 2023. Detailed Sector Assessments 123 Table 31: Total Cost of Needs by Municipality Cost Cost # Municipality Needs category179 (In US$ million) (In LYD million) 1 Derna Repair and rebuild bank branches 3.3 15.7 2 Al Abraq Repair and rebuild bank branches 3 Soussa Repair and rebuild bank branches 4 Al Bayda Repair and rebuild bank branches 0.2 0.9 5 Al Marj Repair and rebuild bank branches 6 Sahel Al Jabal Repair and rebuild bank branches 7 Shahaat Repair and rebuild bank branches 0.2 0.9 8 Jardas Al Abid Repair and rebuild bank branches 9 Medouar Al Zetoun Repair and rebuild bank branches 10 Al Qayqab Repair and rebuild bank branches 11 Ra’s Al Hilal Repair and rebuild bank branches 12 Wardam Repair and rebuild bank branches 13 Umar Al Mukhtar Repair and rebuild bank branches 14 Toukara Repair and rebuild bank branches 15 Benghazi Repair and rebuild bank branches 0.2 0.9 16 Gemienis Repair and rebuild bank branches 17 Suloug Repair and rebuild bank branches 18 Umm Arazam Repair and rebuild bank branches 19 Al Qubah Repair and rebuild bank branches 20 Al Abyar Repair and rebuild bank branches Total 3.8 18.4 Source: Assessment team. Table 32: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Banking Sector Reconstruction Short-term early recovery* medium-term* (1–12 months) (1–3 years) Total Cost Total Cost US$ LYD Intervention/Activity US$ LYD US$ LYD million million Establish temporary banking services 1.9 9.2 - - 1.9 9.2 and repair damaged bank branches Strengthen Financial sector resilience - - 1.9 9.2 1.9 9.2 Total Needs 1.9 9.2 1.9 9.2 3.8 18.4 Source: Assessment team. 179 Copied from table above. 124 Detailed Sector Assessments climate risk. Finally, despite the lack of baseline Linkages with Cross-Cutting information on financial inclusion, ensuring the themes180 inclusion of women and vulnerable groups needs to be monitored in the context of recovery efforts. Strengthened governance within the recently unified CBL will be key to addressing the necessary Limitations repairs and reconstructions in the banking sector infrastructure and enabling the sector’s There are considerable data limitations on baseline rapid response to emergency financing needs of and post-disaster financial infrastructure and businesses and vulnerable groups. service delivery in the impacted areas. As such, the assessment of damages and needs in the financial In the medium term, the recent disaster underlines sector is partial and would benefit from an update the importance of initiating the greening of the when data are available. financial system to improve its resilience to disaster/ 180 Cross-cutting themes include: FCV, Climate Change, Gender, Governance, and Social Inclusion. © Seraj Elhouni/Shutterstock.com 125 INFRASTRUCTURE SECTORS 126 Detailed Sector Assessments ENERGY Libya’s electricity (power) sector has relied heavily progress in reducing the duration and frequency of on government investments based on the country’s power outages since 2022. To maintain momentum, rich endowment in oil and gas (O&G), the mainstay GECOL needs to resume constructing power stations of its economy. The country has reported high after disruptions following the 2011 revolution. It also rates of access to electricity for its people and needs to commission new gas turbine power plants businesses, following decades of investment in and maintain its current fleet of power stations. electricity infrastructure. However, multiple factors have contributed to the degradation of Libya’s The power sector in Libya faces many other electricity system and reliability of services since challenges, including cost recovery through tariffs. 2011, including the lack of maintenance of existing Libyan electricity rates are among the lowest in the infrastructure, improvements in energy efficiency, region, at 0.040 dinars (one US cent) per kilowatt- the addition of new electricity generation capacity, hour for individuals, and 0.080 dinars for businesses.183 incentives to rationalize electricity use, and Subsidized electricity tariffs are closely linked to investment in renewable energy. the entrenched practice of fossil fuel subsidies. The prices paid by Libya’s electric power utility for fossil The availability of infrastructure has thus not been fuels such as natural gas, light fuel oil, and heavy matched by the reliability of service. As a result, fuel oil are a small fraction of the market value of the provision of electricity in recent years has been these fuels on the international market for energy rationed by the practice of load shedding – to avoid commodities. The low prices erode incentives for system-wide grid failure. Despite all the efforts, GECOL’s operational efficiency, with its commercial power outages often lasted ten or more hours per losses in 2022 reported at 45 percent.184 day, turning the city’s streets dark at night and leaving residents without air conditioning.181 It is also Libya also has the highest GHG emissions per capita worth mentioning that Libya consumes two to four on the African continent, at approximately 11.1 tons times more electricity per capita than its neighbors.182 of carbon per person per year.185 The primary source of these emissions (90 percent) is the energy sector, Libya has a total nameplate installed electricity with fuel combustion for electricity generation, fuel generation capacity of about 10–11 Gigawatts (GW), refineries, and flaring of methane accounting for but the capacity effectively available is reported to the majority of these emissions. 186 Libya’s eastern be ~8 GW and fails to meet the demand of ~9 GW. regions have four major power generation plants: 1) The availability of generating capacity is, in turn, Benghazi North, 2) Derna, 3) Tobruk, and 4) Zweitina constrained by unreliable fuel supply, with repeated (see Figure 35). The installed capacity of these plants cut-offs of fuel sources (refined petroleum products amounts to 2.8 GW, or about a quarter of the total as well as gas) supplying power plants. Besides installed capacity in Libya (see Table 37 for details). the generation facilities, the electric power grid Despite its huge potential for renewable energy due needs strengthening, including repairs of lines and to its location in the heart of the sun belt, and the substations damaged in past conflicts. creation of the Renewable Energy Authority of Libya (REAOL) in 2007, Libya has not yet built a single The state-owned electricity utility company, the utility-size solar power plant. General Electricity Company of Libya (GECOL), while still struggling to meet the country’s growing Tobruk is also the site of a new gas-fired power demand for electricity, has reported significant plant.187 Once completed, the plant will have a total 181 https://www.arabnews.com/node/2366326/middle-east. 182 https://ourworldindata.org/. 183 https://www.arabnews.com/node/2366326/middle-east. 184 chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://pdf.usaid.gov/pdf_docs/PA00ZVSX.pdf. 185 https://ourworldindata.org/co2/country/libya. 186 Libya NDC White Paper. 187 https://libyaobserver.ly/inbrief/work-continues-tobruk-gas-fired-power-plant-project-gecol-reports. Detailed Sector Assessments 127 power output of more than 740 MW and dual fuel revolution. The most severe and longest-lasting (natural gas and light fuel oil) capability. damage was in Benghazi city in 2014–15 (yellow circle on map 3), which led to the separation of the Libya’s electricity transmission system (including network into Eastern and Western sections, load transmission substations, which are an important shedding in Benghazi, and shortages in generation in part of the damage assessment in this RDNA) has the Western network and consequent load shedding been fairly robust and has withstood many incidents there, too. GECOL eventually repaired the damaged of vandalism resulting from civil strife since the 2011 parts of the network. Figure 35: Libya’s Power Generation Assets (Tripoli West, South) IBRD 46885 | TUNISIA Abu Kammash (Khoms 1,2) OCTOBER 2022 This map was produced by the TRIPOLI (Banghazi Cartography Unit of the World Mediterranean North 1,2) Al Bayda Bank Group. The boundaries, colors, denominations and any Zuwarah Zawia CC Gas Al Khoms Darnah other information shown on this Sea map do not imply, on the part of the World Bank Group, any Misratah Banghazi Al Marj Torbuk judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement Gharyan or acceptance of such boundaries. Gulf (Khaleej) Western Surt Zweitina 246 | THE LONG ROAD TOMountain INCLUSIvE INSTITUTIONS IN LIBYA Ajdabiya Ghadamis Hun Source: Libya Sourcebook of Challenges and Needs (World Bank 2023). Box 14.2, continued Sarir Birak ARAB MAP B14.2.1 ALGERIA Figure 36: Libya’s Electricity Transmission System REPUBLIC Transmission network Awbari Sabha OF EGYPT Mursuk Ghat Al Jawf GECOL GENERATION ASSETS NIGER CITIES INTERNATIONAL BOUNDARIES CHAD SUDAN Source:General Electricity Company of Libya 400 kV 220 kV Substation Interconnection point Damage incurred 2011–16 Source: Libya Sourcebook of Challenges and Needs (World Bank 2023). Source: World Bank 2017a. Note: kV = kilovolt. Source: World Bank. 128 Detailed Sector Assessments 2023, the power supply of Derna was restored to 80 Assessment of Disaster percent of pre-floods levels. Effects188 It is clear that the power outage was most severe The floods revealed many weaknesses in the country’s in the first day or two, with after-effects lasting for electricity sector. The electricity infrastructure would weeks. Similar power outages occurred in Al Bayda. have been better able to withstand the impact of the In Benghazi, only a few areas east of the city lost floods had it been better maintained. The impacts of power, and their supply returned to the pre-flood a decade of insecurity and institutional fragility have level by 24 September 2023.190 It is hard to isolate the been important contributors to the deterioration of impacts specific to damage to the electricity sector the electricity sector and infrastructure prior to the from those due to electricity consumption resulting damage caused by the recent disaster.  from other effects of the floods. Indeed, the loss of night-time brightness may be partially due to an This RDNA has assessed the condition of the energy outflow of people from the area rather than from (electricity) facilities located in 20 municipalities electricity infrastructure failure. potentially affected by the floods, including power generation plants, electric transmission substations, In addition to the satellite data, information on and administrative office buildings associated with the degree of damage to specific electricity electricity provision to the municipalities. VIIRS189 infrastructure facilities has been collected by a team technology was used to detect the power outages working on the ground in Libya. In the area assessed, and their duration in each affected area. Figure 42 facilities were identified (see Table 33). Of these, 37 shows the sharp drop in night-time brightness six have been partially damaged, all of which are recorded by satellite imagery in Derna. Power supply electrical substations. Furthermore, one substation estimated from night-time lights of Derna dropped is completely destroyed. by more than 90 percent after the floods. By 24 Sept. Figure 37: Average Night-Time Brightness in Derna Before and After the Floods Sources: International Charter Space and Major Disasters; UN Satellite Centre; Power Supply Assessment in Benghazi using Night-time Light Imagery191 188 Damage is classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage is classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. 189 VIIRS = Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite. 190 Ibid. 191 https://reliefweb.int/map/libya/power-supply-assessment-benghazi-libya-using-night-time-light-imagery-27-septem- ber-2023. Detailed Sector Assessments 129 Table 33: Damage and Loss in the Energy Sector Partially Completely Total Cost in Total Cost in Asset Types Baseline Damaged destroyed US$ million LYD million DAMAGE   Power Plant 10 0 0 0 0 Electrical Substation 22 6 1 34.0 163.4 Admin Office 10 0 0 0 0 Total Damage 42 6 1 34.0 163.4 ECONOMIC LOSS DUE TO POWER OUTAGES   Total Loss       40.9 196.5 Source: Assessment team. The damage caused by the floods to the electricity Restoration of power supply to the affected infrastructure is estimated at US$ 34 million communities was done as a matter of emergency in terms of replacement costs of the assets. response and through mobilization of resources Furthermore, the impact on the assets caused from other parts of the power grid. This meant additional running costs of power supply to the redirecting electricity flows to alternative paths affected communities, since severe power outages through the transmission and distribution network. forced households and businesses to resort to more This is essentially a temporary fix to a power system expensive ways to generate electricity, such as local with fundamentally (albeit partially) damaged capital diesel-fired generators. The economic losses due to assets, which still need to be restored. The current the power outages in September 2023 are estimated situation is all the more unviable given that the at US$ 40.9 million. The total damages and losses Libyan power system was already strained by the are estimated at US$ 74.9 million (Table 33) – a shortage of available generating capacity, even prior conservative estimate given that some of the losses to the storm (refer to pre-storm context above). may have lasted through October 2023 and possibly longer until the grid power supply was fully restored. Table 34: Damages and Losses by Municipality in the Energy Sector Total Damage Total Damage # Municipality Damage, US$ Damage, LYD Loss, US$ Loss, LYD + Loss, US$ + Loss, LYD 1 Derna 4,000,000 19,222,000 6,581,924 31,629,434 10,581,924 50,851,434 2 Al Abraq - - - - - - 3 Soussa 14,000,000 67,277,000 877,590 4,217,258 14,877,590 71,494,258 4 Al Bayda - - 13,163,847 63,258,868 13,163,847 63,258,868 5 Al-Marj - - 7,313,248 35,143,816 7,313,248 35,143,816 6 Sahel Al Jabal 4,000,000 19,222,000 1,462,650 7,028,763 5,462,650 26,250,763 7 Shahaat 4,000,000 19,222,000 5,484,936 26,357,862 9,484,936 45,579,862 8 Jardas Al Abid - - - - - - 9 Medouar Al Zetoun - - 36,566 175,719 36,566 175,719 130 Detailed Sector Assessments Total Damage Total Damage # Municipality Damage, US$ Damage, LYD Loss, US$ Loss, LYD + Loss, US$ + Loss, LYD 10 Al Qayqab - - - - - - 11 Ra’s Al Hilal 4,000,000 19,222,000 73,132 351,438 4,073,132 19,573,438 12 Wardam - - - - - - 13 Umar Al Mukhtar - - - - - - 14 Toukara 4,000,000 19,222,000 36,566 175,719 4,036,566 19,397,719 15 Benghazi - - 5,850,599 28,115,052 5,850,599 28,115,052 16 Gemienis - - - - - - 17 Suloug - - - - - - 18 Umm Arazam - - - - - - 19 Al Qubah - - - - - - 20 Al Abyar - - - - - - Total 34,000,000 163,387,000 40,881,059 196,453,929 74,881,059 359,840,929 Source: Assessment team. In Table 34, the allocation of damages across the municipalities is based on the number of affected Recovery Needs and Strategy facilities and estimated capital costs per facility,192 The assessment shows that most flood-damaged with the numbers of affected facilities as per Table assets are electricity transmission substations. 33. The allocation of losses, however, is proportional These should be a priority in the short term, in order to the number of people affected by the floods in to resume reliable electricity service to all affected each municipality. The number of affected people areas. As noted above, the emergency response to is a proxy for the number of electricity consumers the outages may have fixed the immediate problem affected by the power outages, with no distinction but left the power system stretched for resources made between households and businesses. The and vulnerable to future failures. In the longer term, information on the number of affected people GECOL should prioritize closing the gap in available combines publicly available sources with that from generation capacity by resuming the delayed power the team on the ground. plant construction disrupted by past conflicts and continue to address overhaul and maintenance Linking Effects to Human requirements. The policy framework improvements, Impacts while not the immediate focus in the current crisis management environment, should aim at improving GECOL and sector financial sustainability by The impact of the power outages on the communities reducing subsidies on fossil fuel tariffs for electricity is profound, even if power was restored in a generation, which would also create incentives relatively short time. The majority of the population for energy efficiency and renewable energy in the affected areas relies heavily on the public development. power grid for electricity. Households, businesses, and public facilities, including healthcare, have to To fully recover from the September 2023 flood resort to expensive private generators to sustain damage, Libya’s electricity sector will need to apply operations during power outages. the BBB principle. This means not only restoring its 192 Default average replacement costs per facility have been adopted in the absence of facility-specific cost information. The default cost per substation is US$ 10 million. Detailed Sector Assessments 131 Table 35 : Total Cost of Needs in the Energy Sector Total Cost (in US$ million) - Total Cost (in LYD million) - Needs Type including costs for BBB including costs for BBB Restoration of Damaged Substations 44.2 212.4 Recovery of Losses from Power Outages 53.1 255.4 in September 2023 Total Needs 97.3 467.8 Note: Building Back Better (BBB) premium of 30% is adopted. Source: Assessment team. Table 36: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction Needs Short-term early recovery Medium-term recovery (1–12 months) (1 to 3 years) Total Cost Intervention/Activity US$ million LYD million US$ million LYD million US$ million LYD million Restoration of Damaged 13.3 63.7 30.9 148.7 44.2 212.4 Substations Recovery of Losses from Power 53.1 255.4 - - 53.1 255.4 Outages in September 2023 Total Needs 66.4 319.1 30.9 148.7 97.3 467.8 Source: Assessment team. facilities to pre-disaster conditions but also ensuring The disaster has also revealed the weakness of that facilities are reconstructed to meet modern a power sector that is vertically integrated and standards of safety and reliability, including the based practically entirely on fossil fuels. Distributed ability to withstand severe shocks, such as weather generation based on solar power, for example, could events of the scale of Storm Daniel (See Table 35 and have saved the affected communities from the need 36). to resort to more expensive and polluting local power supply options, such as diesel generators. Linkages with Cross-Cutting Themes Limitations The number of facility types covered in the The political turmoil following the 2011 revolution assessment is limited to power generation plants, has had substantial impacts on the energy sector, electric transmission substations, and administrative structure, and governance. The unresolved office buildings. This leaves out other types of governance issues have left eastern Libya less facilities, notably electric power lines, which may prepared for the challenges in the electricity have been damaged as well. Also, the assessment sector, among others. Derna, a coastal city with does not include O&G assets, such as the gas pipeline approximately 120,000 residents, grapples with system passing through Libya’s coastal zone, due to inadequately maintained infrastructure and its the lack of access to data. vulnerable low-lying terrain, rendering it particularly prone to disaster. 132 Detailed Sector Assessments Energy facilities mentioned in the Libya Sourcebook to damage to the electricity sector from those due to of Challenges and Needs,193 possibly damaged electricity consumption resulting from other effects but not covered by this RDNA, include the 220 kV of the floodings. For example, the loss of night-time transmission lines in Derna and its proximity to an brightness may be partially due to an outflow of oil refining facility east of Derna. In addition, it should people from the area rather than from electricity be noted that it is hard to isolate the impacts specific infrastructure failure. Table 37: Libya East Region’s Power Generation Capacity Unit/ Total Total available Plant No. of Year in Planned turbine Nameplate installed capacity in Fuel Power station name type units service retirement type rating MW capacity MW 2017, MW type Benghazi North 1 Combined 3 1995 >2030 Gas 150 450 220 LFO/ cycle Gas     1 2002 >2030 Gas 165 165 140 LFO/ Gas     2 2007 >2030 Steam 150 300 - N/A Subtotal   6       465 915 360   Benghazi North 2 Combined 2 2010 >2030 Gas 285 570 460 LFO/ cycle Gas     1 2013 >2030 Steam 250 250 105 N/A Subtotal   3       535 820 565   Total Benghazi North   9       1,000 1,735 925   1 and 2 Tobruk Steam 2 1985 2019 Steam 65 130 - HFO (oil‑fired) Total Benghazi North,   13       1,130 1,995 925   Derna, and Tobruk Zweitina Gas 4 1994 2026 Gas 50 200 35 LFO/ (main) Gas     2 2010 >2030 Gas 285 570 220 LFO/ Gas Total Benghazi North,   19         2,765 1,180   Derna, Tobruk, and Zweitina Source: Assessment team. 193 https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/libya/publication/the-long-road-to-inclusive-institutions-in-libya-a-sourcebook-of- challenges-and-needs. Detailed Sector Assessments 133 Table 38: Total Cost of Needs by Municipality Cost (in US$ Cost (in LYD # Municipality Needs category million) million) 1 Derna Restoration of Damaged Substations 5.2 25.0     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 8.6 41.1   Derna subtotal   13.8 66.1 2 Al Abraq Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Al Abraq subtotal   - - 3 Soussa Restoration of Damaged Substations 18.2 87.5     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 1.1 5.5   Soussa subtotal   19.3 92.9 4 Al Bayda Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 17.1 82.2   Al Bayda subtotal   17.1 82.2 5 Al Marj Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 9.5 45.7   Al Marj subtotal   9.5 45.7 6 Sahel Al Jabal Restoration of Damaged Substations 5.2 25.0     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 1.9 9.1   Sahel Al Jabal   7.1 34.1 subtotal 7 Shahaat Restoration of Damaged Substations 5.2 25.0     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 7.1 34.3   Shahaat subtotal   12.3 59.3 8 Jardas Al Abid Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Jardas Al Abid   - - subtotal 9 Medouar Al Restoration of Damaged Substations - - Zetoun       Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 0.0 0.2 Medouar Al   0.0 0.2 Zetoun total 10 Al Qayqab Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Al Qayqab subtotal   - - 134 Detailed Sector Assessments Cost (in US$ Cost (in LYD # Municipality Needs category million) million) 11 Ra’s Al Hilal Restoration of Damaged Substations 5.2 25.0     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 0.1 0.5   Ra’s Al Hilal   5.3 25.4 subtotal 12 Wardam Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Wardam subtotal   - - 13 Umar Al Mukhtar Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Umar Al Mukhtar   - - subtotal 14 Toukara Restoration of Damaged Substations 5.2 25.0     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 0.0 0.2   Toukara subtotal   5.2 25.2 15 Benghazi Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 7.6 36.5   Benghazi subtotal   7.6 36.5 16 Gemienis Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Gemienis subtotal   - - 17 Suloug Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Suloug subtotal   - - 18 Umm Arazam Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Umm Arazam   - - subtotal 19 Al Qubah Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Al Qubah subtotal   - - 20 Al Abyar Restoration of Damaged Substations - -     Recovery of Losses from Power Outages in September 2023 - -   Al Abyar subtotal   - - Total 97.3 467.8 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 135 TRANSPORT Before the storm, Libya’s transport sector had been events. The LPI performance is a measure of the hindered by many challenges, including inadequate country’s logistics and transport infrastructure, planning, neglect of maintenance, and political customs efficiency, ease of arranging shipments, instability. Shortages of skilled personnel in road quality of logistics services, ability to track and construction and maintenance have impacted trace consignments, and timeliness of shipments. the effectiveness of transport projects, which is Political instability coupled with the impact of crucial for sustaining the sector’s infrastructure. extreme climate events have adverse effects on Challenges in accessing foreign currency to pay these logistics performance indicators. The state of foreign contractors have affected the country’s transport infrastructure, roads, ports, and airports, ability to access essential equipment and technology along with the non-operational railway network, needed for the sector’s development. Desertification contribute to inefficiencies in the sector. It is also and extreme climate change patterns have had affected by the institutional and capacity challenges significant impacts on transport infrastructure, facing the country. particularly in the southern regions. The recent storm is a testimony to Libya’s vulnerability to Libya’s road infrastructure is approximately 34,000 climate change patterns. km of paved roads, 15,500 km of primary roads, and 18,000 km of secondary roads. Libya has a total of 23 Globally, transport systems contribute nearly 23 airports and 16 ports. The Road and Bridge Authority percent of global GHG emissions. Libya ranks (RBA) is responsible for the overall operation and 67th among global emitters, with a total share of maintenance of Libya’s roads and bridges network. Its 0.16 percent194 of total global emissions. In 2020, responsibilities also include improving connectivity Libya emitted 75.37 Metric tons of carbon dioxide and road safety. The total length of roads in the equivalent (MtCO2e), out of which 64.45Mt (85.51 Eastern affected region of Libya is 14,561 km. A total percent) came from the Energy production and of 32 km of primary roads, 44 km of secondary roads, Transport sectors. In 2020, Libya’s per capita share 544 km of residential and “Others”196 are damaged. of emissions was 10.97tCO2e. Libya is a party to Out of the five ports in the region, one port in Derna the Paris Agreement, which requires countries to was partially impacted by the storm. outline their climate actions, known as Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) to reduce national The status of service delivery and institutional emissions and adapt to the impact of climate change. capacity in Libya’s transport sector is significantly In the BBB scenario, the transport sector can play an challenged by various developmental issues. important role in reducing national emissions and One major issue is the aging and deteriorating addressing the root causes of climate change. state of much of Libya’s transport infrastructure, which includes roads, ports, airports, and public Inadequate public transport infrastructure, insecurity transport. Decades of underinvestment, due in and safety issues, hinder women’s mobility and limit part to complications in approving development their access to economic opportunities. Unreliable spending and neglect of maintenance, have led public transport options led to extended commutes, to inefficiencies in the sector. As a result, roads diminishing the time available for work and education. and urban public transport are in poor condition These complex issues underscore the need for and ports and airports are less efficient than comprehensive improvements in transport systems their potential. This not only affects the overall to enhance women’s economic prospects in Libya. capacity of the transport sector but also hinders its efficiency and safety. Additionally, the railway Libya’s score in the Logistics Performance Index LPI network in Libya, which spans approximately 600 (1.9)195 is among the ten lowest-ranking countries km, with only 110 km in the East, has not operated affected by conflict and extreme climate change since 1965. 194 https://www.climatewatchdata.org/countries/LBY?end_year=2020&start_year=1990#ghg-emissions. 195 https://lpi.worldbank.org/international/global. 196 Unclassified road, those are usually small roads that are neither tertiary nor secondary. 136 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 38: Road, Bridge and Housing Damage in the City of Derna Source: Assessment team. Insufficient allocations of funding have hindered Assessment of Disaster Effects: the development and expansion of transport infrastructure. Libya relies heavily on expatriate Damage and Loss Estimates197 workers, and shortages of skilled personnel in areas such as road construction and maintenance The damage to all transport infrastructure in the have impacted the effectiveness and sustainability region is 673 km, representing five percent of the of transport projects. Desertification and extreme total road network in the region. They include primary climate change patterns have significantly impacted roads, secondary roads, tertiary and residential transport infrastructure, particularly in the roads. 625 km of roads were partially damaged, and southern regions. The recent storm is a testimony around 48 km were totally damaged. Public Transport to Libya’s vulnerability to climate change patterns. assets and infrastructure are not covered in this assessment. The most impacted municipalities are Benghazi, Al Bayda, Soussa and Derna, which account for 80 percent of the total damage (partial and total damage) to the road network in the region. 197 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. Detailed Sector Assessments 137 The damage to the road infrastructure is highest in The economic losses include losses resulting from Benghazi at 219km, followed by Al Bayda at 150km, longer travel time, higher Vehicle Operating Costs Sousa at 88km and Derna at 86km. The total damage (VOC), losses of revenues from fuel sales, despite in these four municipalities is 543km. It is notable the fact that fuel is heavily subsidized in Libya and that Benghazi was not directly hit by the storm. vehicle registration fees. The economic losses also However, the damage to Benghazi’s Road network include higher vehicle emissions due to poor road refers to its rural and suburban road network. Out of conditions. The bad roads pose major road safety the 104 bridges in the region, only 14 bridges were risks and human loss, leading to higher economic reported damaged by the storm; two are primary costs. The team estimates the economic losses at 15 bridges, six tertiary bridges, five trunk bridges and percent of the total damage in the sector. one service bridge. Thirteen bridges were damaged by the storm in Derna, and one bridge in Al Bayda Due to several challenges, including the absence of municipality. There are 19 airports in Libya, and no data on road conditions, traffic data before and after damage was reported to Airports in the region. Out the disaster, and overall data uncertainty, the team of the five ports in the region, only one port in Derna chose to use a percentage of the total damage as a is reported damaged. proxy for economic loss and a simplified approach which assumes that 15 percent of the total physical The loss in the transport infrastructure includes damage incurred would translate into economic loss. widespread disruption to traffic movement, access, and mobility of the people in the region. Following Due to the storm, nearly 50 percent of all roads the storm, nearly 50 percent of the region’s road in the impacted area were inaccessible.199 The network became impassable,198 therefore impacting following municipalities have been impacted most, access to essential services such as health centers, comprising 80 percent of the total damages in the 20 markets, and schools, and forcing people to take municipalities: lengthy detours and travel time. The accumulation of water, debris from washed-away buildings 1. Benghazi is the second-largest city in Libya and and vehicles, and mud compounded the already an important economic center. It is known for difficult situation. These infrastructures were not its port, which handles a substantial portion of built to withstand such pressure, and nor were the the country’s exports, including oil. Benghazi is authorities prepared for such devastation. a central hub for trade and transport in Libya. It hosts a significant commercial port, which The destruction of the road network, including handles a substantial portion of the country’s damage to public and private vehicles, has caused exports and imports, including oil and other major disruptions in people’s lives. It has severely goods. The city’s location on the Mediterranean hindered access and mobility of people, goods and coast makes it a crucial gateway for international services in the affected area. Blocked roads, falling trade. Benghazi was severely impacted by the debris from destroyed buildings, and accumulation storm. Damage to its transport infrastructure of water and mud have forced people to take long accounts for 33 percent of the total damage detours, leading to congestion, longer travel times, reported in the 20 municipalities. Nearly 220 km higher transport costs, and lower productivity. of its road network was partially damaged. The economic losses due to the damage to roads and 2. Al Bayda serves as the capital of the Cyrenaica bridges are estimated at US$ 21 million. Due to the region. It has economic significance due to its lack of data on the number of registered vehicles, role as a regional administrative and trade center. data on the number of vehicles damaged, traffic flow Al Bayda serves as an administrative and trade speed before and after the storm, as well as lack center in the eastern part of Libya. While not as of data on the overall condition of the road network prominent as Benghazi, it plays a regional role before and after the storm, it is hard to quantify in trade and transport, connecting the Cyrenaica the economic losses from disruptions in the sector. region to other parts of the country. Al Bayda was Therefore, the team estimates the economic loss as impacted by the storm. Nearly 145 km of its road a percentage of the total damage in the sector. network was partially damaged, and 5 km was totally damaged. 198 Libya new Agency- Roads and Bridges authority reveals percentage to infrastructure in east of the country. 2023-09-23. 199 Libya new Agency- Roads and Bridges authority reveals percentage to infrastructure in east of the country. 2023-09-23. 138 Detailed Sector Assessments 3. Sousa is located along the Mediterranean coast, total of 86 km of its road network was severely making it a significant trade and transport hub. damaged. Nearly 30 km of its road network was The city was impacted by the storm. A total of 88 completely damaged, the highest among the km of the city’s road network were damaged due 20 municipalities. The City’s port was partially to the storm. damaged, and 14 bridges suffered damage. 4. Derna is located along the eastern Mediterranean The challenges facing Libya’s transport sector coast; it has a role in coastal trade and transport. can have profound implications at the community The city’s port facilitates the movement of goods and household level. Deteriorating transport and connects to other regional coastal cities. infrastructure and limited access to reliable Derna was severely impacted by the storm. A public transportation can significantly affect living Table 39: Damage and Loss Inventory for Transport Infrastructure Total Damage Total Damage Total Loss Total Loss Partially Completely Cost (In US$ Cost (In LYD Cost (In US$ Cost (In LYD Asset Types Unit Baseline Damaged Destroyed million) million) million) million) Airport L.S. 19 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Port L.S. 5 1 7.2 10.0 48.1 1.5 7.2 Primary L.S. 20 0 5.8 8.0 38.4 1.2 5.8 Bridge Secondary L.S. 9 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bridge Tertiary L.S. 13 2 6.9 9.6 46.1 1.4 6.9 Bridge Residential L.S. 5 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Bridge Path Bridge L.S. 2 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Service L.S. 1 0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.1 Bridge Trunk Bridge L.S. 51 1 0.3 0.4 2.1 0.1 0.3 Other Bridge L.S. 3 0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Primary Road km 702.6 29.5 3.1 16.4 78.9 2.5 11.8 Secondary km 453.7 18.9 2.6 9.1 43.9 1.4 6.6 Road Tertiary Road km 702.4 28.9 14.8 18.5 88.7 2.8 13.3 Track Road km 230.2 3.2 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.0 0.1 Trunk Road km 950.5 26.2 2.7 4.1 19.8 0.6 3.0 Residential km 8,680.6 431.3 20.6 60.3 289.7 9.0 43.4 Road Others Road km 2,841.5 87.9 4.2 2.9 13.8 0.4 2.1 Total 140 671 21 101 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 139 conditions and livelihoods. With inadequate public A comprehensive recovery strategy that prioritizes transportation options, such as buses and light rail or infrastructure rehabilitation, improved governance, Bus Rapid Transport (BRT) in major cities, individuals and the resilience of the transport sector is critical. may struggle to access job opportunities, healthcare Such efforts can enhance living conditions and services, and educational institutions, ultimately livelihoods by ensuring better access to jobs and limiting economic prospects and social well-being. services, promoting gender equity through equal In addition, food security can be compromised access to opportunities, and safeguarding food as transport issues disrupt the timely delivery of security by facilitating the efficient flow of goods. agricultural and food products, impacting both It also fosters social inclusion by connecting production and access to food, leading to potential communities and reducing disparities in access to shortages and increased costs. essential resources, thereby improving the well- being of households and individuals across Libya. Table 40: Damages and Losses by Municipality Total Damage  Total Loss  Total Damage + Loss   Municipality In US$ million In LYD million In US$ million In LYD million In US$ million In LYD million Al Abraq* 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 Al Abyar 3.7 17.6 0.5 2.6 4.2 20.2 Al Bayda 23.4 112.4 3.5 16.9 26.9 129.2 Al Marj 3.1 14.9 0.5 2.2 3.6 17.1 Al Qayqab 0.2 1.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 1.2 Al Qubah 1.1 5.1 0.2 0.8 1.2 5.9 Benghazi 27.8 133.4 4.2 20.0 31.9 153.4 Derna 53.7 258.0 8.1 38.7 61.7 296.7 Gemienis 0.5 2.4 0.1 0.4 0.6 2.7 Jardas Al Abid 0.6 2.8 0.1 0.4 0.7 3.3 Medouar Al Zetoun 0.7 3.5 0.1 0.5 0.8 4.1 Ras Al Hilal 0.1 0.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 Sahel Al Jabal 0.4 1.9 0.1 0.3 0.5 2.2 Shahaat 1.0 4.8 0.2 0.7 1.2 5.6 Soussa 16.8 80.7 2.5 12.1 19.3 92.8 Suloug 3.2 15.5 0.5 2.3 3.7 17.8 Toukara 0.8 3.8 0.1 0.6 0.9 4.4 Umar Al Mukhtar* 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 Umm Arazam 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 Wardam 2.4 11.7 0.4 1.8 2.8 13.4 Total 140 671 21 101 161 772 *Al Abraq’s total damage = US$ 20,000; Umar Al Mukhta’s total damage =US$ 30,000. Source: Assessment team. 140 Detailed Sector Assessments Linking Effects to Human Recovery Needs and Strategy Impact Libya’s transport sector recovery strategy involves several objectives. It focuses on the recovery and The transport sector contributes nearly 3.5 percent rehabilitation of damaged infrastructure, enhancing to Libya’s GDP.200 Before the storm, Libya’s transport institutional capacity, building climate resilience, sector suffered from governance issues, lack of improving efficiency and safety, and promoting investment and years of neglectful maintenance. The inclusive and multimodal transport. It should also storm severely compounded the already exhausted emphasize resilient infrastructure, technological situation of the sector. The condition of the transport integration, and sustainable transport modes. Service infrastructure has direct impact on people’s ability delivery improvements should encompass effective to access employment opportunities, health care, project management, regulatory frameworks, education, and public services, especially for women workforce development, and creating the enabling and girls. Safe and efficient transport promotes environment for private sector engagement through gender equality and improves livelihoods. Climate Public-Private Partnerships (PPP). Technical studies, change events, such as the recent devastating including climate resilience assessments, feasibility storm and desertification, pose significant threats studies, and capacity building, are crucial for good to the Libya’s transport infrastructure. Improved planning. sector governance, better coordination, and properly planned and well-maintained transport The recovery and construction of Libya’s transport infrastructure are critical to enhancing resilience to sector will require significant amounts of resources, extreme weather events and climate change risks. good governance, and increased coordination. It will also require significant planning to repair and The damage to the transport sector has a significant upgrade the transport infrastructure to ensure impact on production and access to goods and reliable and efficient connectivity. The costs for services. Supply chain disruption has led to travel recovery and reconstruction in the 20 municipalities time delays, increased costs of materials, and amount to US$ 209 million. It includes short-term increased cost of production. Disruption of the road recovery and medium-term rehabilitation and network has led to higher transport costs which are reconstruction efforts to restore the roads and often passed to consumers in the form of higher transport infrastructure facilities to pre-disaster commodity prices. The damage also impacted standards. It also includes an annual amount of people’s quality of life and gender equality. Road US$ 63 million for the maintenance, upkeep and damage also disproportionately affects women, who management of the sector over four years. This face additional security risks. needs to account for technical considerations to BBB to enhance the sector’s resilience to the adverse Climate change and fragility may worsen the effects of climate change shocks. condition of transport in Libya. These challenges can cause damage to roads and supply chain disruptions, The recovery strategy for the transport sector and hinder access to critical basic services, markets, comprises several crucial components to ensure and economic opportunities. These impacts can its revitalization. In the short and medium terms, be particularly acute for the most vulnerable and there is a need to prioritize investments that marginalized communities, including IDPs. Lack enhance the reliability and efficiency of connectivity of maintenance can also increase the sector’s within the sector. Strengthening the governance vulnerability to such events. Governance issues and institutional capacity of the transport sector is and lack of coordination hinder timely and effective essential to improve planning, project management, response to climate change events, making it and overall performance. Furthermore, it is vital to challenging to address vulnerability and enhance the develop climate-resilient infrastructure and transport sector’s resilience. In addition, shortages of human systems that can withstand extreme weather events resources and skilled personnel have led to delays and natural disasters. Additionally, enhancing in the maintenance and rehabilitation of the sector, the efficiency and safety of transport operations, making the sector more vulnerable to damage. promoting multimodal transport systems, and aligning planning with environmental considerations are key elements of this recovery strategy. 200 Libya National Account, Ministry of Planning 2022. Detailed Sector Assessments 141 Several BBB factors have been considered in the elements for building a more robust transport analysis to change damaged infrastructure into a sector. Encouraging eco-friendly and sustainable more resilient, sustainable, and efficient system. transportation modes like public transport and They include developing sustainable funding for the electrification, implementing regulatory frameworks, maintenance and operation of the infrastructures to and investing in workforce development and ensure their continued functionality and resilience asset management are also important aspects. over the long term and to accommodate future Additionally, seeking financial and technical support growth in traffic and economic activities. from development banks and donors is a vital step to fund infrastructure projects and capacity-building Flood protection approaches should be adaptable initiatives in the Transport sector. to changing conditions and should be designed to accommodate variations in water levels, potentially The team has taken the above considerations into incorporating adjustable barriers, flood gates, and account for BBB, even though it is difficult to quantify drainage systems to manage floodwaters effectively. the need for protection works across the sector’s In the context of recovery and reconstruction infrastructure. However, the team estimates the strategy for the transport sector, the critical aspects total cost of needs, including BBB, as an additional for BBB are providing flood protection measures 30 percent of damage and loss costs for all and drainage structures. These measures provide infrastructure categories. a proactive response to the immediate and evolving flooding threats, helping to protect lives and critical In addition, it is necessary to conduct criticality infrastructure. assessments within the sector. This assessment helps authorities identify the most important Flood protection measures should be geared towards transport assets, allowing them to allocate resources adaptation to the impacts of climate change by using more effectively. Furthermore, a crucial element climate-resilient materials and eco-friendly, nature- of the recovery strategy involves strengthening based, and green solutions to absorb and redirect emergency preparedness for the transport sector floodwaters. Additionally, future flood protection and its institutions so the sector can respond infrastructure should be designed and implemented effectively and minimize disruptions during disasters to minimize disruptions to transport systems during and emergency events. The recovery strategy floods, allowing for swift recovery and service should also emphasize the importance of timely continuity. maintenance practices, especially by aligning these practices with the results of criticality assessments. Before planning and constructing flood protection infrastructure, it is essential to conduct a Recovery and reconstruction efforts should focus comprehensive flood risk assessment. The first on emergency removal of debris, repair assessment should take into account historical flood of essential infrastructure, and the restoration data, potential flood sources, and the vulnerability of of service delivery of the sector. Medium-term transport assets to flooding. Early Warning Systems interventions should then focus on the rehabilitation (EWS) and adaptive design elements should aim and reconstruction of the most impacted to mitigate the adverse effects of climate change municipalities, mainly Benghazi, Al Bayda, Sousa, on transport systems and communities. Advanced and Derna. The recovery and reconstruction technology and communication systems can provide should be well coordinated and concentrate on the real-time data on flood conditions, enabling timely transport infrastructure that is most important for responses and safe evacuation of people in flood- the economy of the impacted region, as well as prone areas. modernizing the sector and encouraging private sector investment in the operation and maintenance As part of a BBB approach, the strategy recommends of critical transport infrastructure such as roads, investing in resilient and integrated urban transport ports, and airports. This effort will require diligent design during the reconstruction of cities. This planning, coordination among all relevant entities, includes incorporating climate-resilient features and efficient use of resources. Structural and legal to protect transport infrastructure against flooding reforms will also be required to modernize the and landslides. Modern technologies for transport sector and ensure its sustainability and efficient management, eco-friendly and sustainable transport performance, climate change and Paris Agreement modes, and the consideration of environmental and considerations should be at the heart of Libya’s social concerns in transport projects are crucial medium-long transport sector strategies. 142 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 41: Total Cost of Needs Total Cost (in US$ million) Total Cost (in LYD million)  Needs Type  - including costs for BBB, etc.  - including costs for BBB, etc.  Airport 0.0 0.0 Port 15.0 71.8 Primary Bridge 12.0 57.5 Secondary Bridge 0.0 0.0 Tertiary Bridge 14.4 69.0 Residential Bridge 0.0 0.0 Path Bridge 0.0 0.0 Service Bridge 0.3 1.4 Trunk Bridge 0.7 3.2 Other Bridge 0.0 0.0 Primary Road 24.5 117.9 Secondary Road 13.7 65.6 Tertiary Road 27.6 132.6 Track Road 0.1 0.7 Trunk Road 6.2 29.7 Residential Road 90.1 433.0 Others Road 4.3 20.6 Total 209 1,003 Source: Assessment team. The recovery and reconstruction of Libya’s transport sector require a strategic and holistic approach. Linkages with Cross-Cutting Prioritizing critical infrastructure projects in the themes most impacted areas, such as Derna, enhancing governance, and involving local communities in Institutional shortcomings not only undermine the decision-making is critical. It will also require sustainable development of transport in Libya, but good governance and coordination among relevant also impair disaster risk reduction preparedness. government agencies and stakeholders for efficient Effective governance is important for disaster project management. risk planning and the development of the sector. Improved coordination is important to promote To secure funding, mobilizing funds from the inclusive policies and equality between women and government’s budget and partnerships with men. Modern and efficient transport infrastructure development banks and private partners through can create job opportunities for marginalized PPPs is essential. In the short term, focus on groups, including youth and women. Climate change emergency recovery, while in the medium term, and extreme weather patterns seen recently in should emphasize BBB, infrastructure rehabilitation, Libya, including desertification, directly impact and climate resilience. The long-term involves the performance of the transport infrastructure. capacity building and sustainable development to Resilient and sustainable design practices are create a more resilient, efficient, and sustainable essential to mitigate climate change risks, safeguard transport network. investments and improve livelihoods. Detailed Sector Assessments 143 The team was provided with two sets of data - low Limitations estimate and high estimate. Because of the large disparity between the two data sets, the team used The damage assessment is limited to road transport the average of the two values as the “Low Estimate”, infrastructure, mainly roads and bridges, and ports. and the most likely scenario as the “High Estimate”. Support facilities, logistics, private and public By using this approach, the team acknowledges the vehicles, such as vehicles and trucks, and airports inherent data limitations, and that data were used are excluded from the analysis. The data were largely to give a range for the estimated damage collected from satellite imagery and were difficult and need cost estimates. The team believes this to verify from ground sources. No amount has been approach provides a more comprehensive view assigned to the airport category, but airports may for allocating resources, adapting to availability of need to maintain operational capacity in the short funds, and to making informed decisions. and medium terms. Table 42: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Transport Reconstruction Short-term early recovery* Medium-term* (1–12 months)    (1–3 years)  Total Cost Intervention/ Activity  US$ (million) LYD (million) US$ (million) LYD (million) US$ (million) LYD (million) Airport 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Port 4.5 21.6 10.5 50.3 15.0 71.8 Primary Bridge 3.6 17.2 8.4 40.2 12.0 57.5 Secondary Bridge 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Tertiary Bridge 4.3 20.7 10.0 48.3 14.4 69.0 Residential Bridge 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Path Bridge 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Service Bridge 0.1 0.4 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.4 Trunk Bridge 0.2 0.9 0.5 2.2 0.7 3.2 Other Bridge 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Primary Road 7.4 35.4 17.2 82.5 24.5 117.9 Secondary Road 4.1 19.7 9.6 45.9 13.7 65.6 Tertiary Road 8.3 39.8 19.3 92.8 27.6 132.6 Track Road 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.7 Trunk Road 1.9 8.9 4.3 20.8 6.2 29.7 Residential Road 27.0 129.9 63.1 303.1 90.1 433.0 Others Road 1.3 6.2 3.0 14.4 4.3 20.6 Total 63 301 146 702 209 1,003 Source: Assessment team. 144 Detailed Sector Assessments TELECOMMUNICATIONS AND DIGITAL DEVELOPMENT The post-revolution conflict in Libya has destroyed 1.3 million; and (ii) Libya Telecom & Technology an estimated US$ 1 billion in telecom infrastructure. (LTT), a fixed-line operator serving approximately But despite a security context that is still not 80,000 subscribers. The telecommunications completely stabilized, the country has shown great market contains two additional players: (i) the resilience in facing the complex and costly task of Libyan International Telecom Company (LTIC), rebuilding the economy, infrastructure, institutions, a subsidiary of LPTIC in charge of international and responding to the demands of the population. connectivity, and which owns the 425 km Silphium The Libyan pre-revolution era was market by an ICT cable connecting Libya to Greece and co-owns sector which possessed backhaul capabilities that (with other actors) both the Italy-Libya and the EIG were more substantial compared to most countries international cables; and (ii) Aljeel Aljadeed, a multi- in the region. Libya’s crude oil reserves mean that play and MVNO operator that provides integrated income levels in the country are relatively high communications services, television broadcasting compared to other countries in North Africa, and and network services. with a mobile penetration rate that is amongst the highest in the continent, the potential of ROI in the Regulation of the telecom sector is through telecom sector has encouraged many international the General Authority for Communication and private companies to express interest. However, Informatics (GACI), an entity created by the transitional the conflict and political instability have delayed government following the revolution in Libya to essential sectoral reforms. Despite the COVID-19 replace the former General Telecommunications pandemic accelerating the adoption of digital tools in Authority (GTA). The GACI has a mandate to oversee Libya like many other countries in the world, digital the LPTIC and its subsidiaries and be the national literacy in the country remains low. Most internet authority for information and documentation. The users are more accustomed to social media and GACI has had difficulties driving competition and less to more advanced digital tools such as online improving services across the country. Conflict payments and e-government services. Significant and political instability have disrupted the regular gender gaps persist in digital literacy and use of legislative processes, delaying much-needed mobile accounts. updates to laws governing the sector202, and the challenging political situation imposes further Competition in the telecom sector remains difficulties for the GACI to operate, especially in unchanged and is still dominated by the state. certain areas of the country where it has little or no The telecom sector is entirely controlled by the control of telecommunications infrastructure.203 “Libyan Post, Telecommunication and Information Technology Company (LPTIC)” holding, which is fully Mobile subscriptions in Libya stood at an impressive owned by the State which owns 100 percent shares 205 percent in 2022, among the highest on the in all market players. The mobile market is divided continent, showing a substantial reliance on mobile between the two mobile operators Libyana and Al- services and abundant usage, with ownership of Madar, both holding respectively 60.5 percent and two or more SIM cards being common practice. 39.5 percent of market shares.201 The two players The fixed segment on the other hand has a less operating in the fixed segment are: (i) Hatif Libya, substantial penetration rate, with fixed-broadband a company established by the board of LPTIC in subscription standing at a mere 4,79 percent 2008, and owns the 15,000 km national fiber optics (or 326k subscriptions).204 The telecom sector backbone, and possesses a subscriber base of over sustained the impact of the long civil conflict in 201 Source: Broadband, Cloud and Data Assessment in the Mediterranean Region (IFC and Roland Berger, 2020). 202 Including the Telecommunication Act of 2011. 203 Source: Digital Economy Country Assessment (USAID, November 2022). 204 Source : ITU, Datahub 2022. Detailed Sector Assessments 145 Libya, and the difficult political context. Broadband availability and usage have been lagging behind Assessment of Disaster other countries in the region, and the absence of Effects206 a broadband national plan did little to effectively improve coverage and drive usage of broadband The preliminary damage assessment of the services. Despite the substantial potential of the telecommunications sector in Libya shows that floods telecom sector in Libya, and the strong interest had a limited impact on mobile digital infrastructure by international operators to integrate the market, in the 20 affected municipalities. Damage private investments in the telecommunications assessment was limited to the access network and sector have been very limited, mainly due to a weak mobile communication in particular, due to limited regulatory framework. Furthermore, the lack of data on fixed and backhaul communication assets. engagement of strong international market players The assessment was conducted on a baseline of has constrained compliance with international 82 radio towers covering the 20 municipalities. The best practices and standards. No data on mobile overall damage to radio communication due to the applications for public and municipal service floods was observed on approximately 10 percent delivery are available. of the radio towers in the target area. Out of the 82 radio communication towers in the flooded area, six There have been national efforts to improve the were partially damaged, while two were completely sector following the revolution in Libya. These destroyed, representing respectively 7.3 percent involved a number of initiatives such as the recent and 2.4 percent of the baseline. The damage was adoption in May 2023 of the ICT sector strategy concentrated mainly in the three municipalities 2023–2027; the launch of 4G services by the two of Wardam, Soussa and Al Bayda as shown in the mobile operators Libyana and Al-Madar in 2018 figures below: to cover a number of municipalities including Tripoli, Zawiya, Sabha, Benghazi and Misrata; Losses due to downtime from damaged mobile the upgrade of the Hatif Libya FTTP access from communication towers were minimal, as was 800 in 2010 to 200,000 premises in 2014; and the the overall impact on service delivery for launch of an LTE-Fixed broadband network by LTT mobile communication services in the affected to complement its DSL, WiMax, WiFi, fiber, and municipalities. However, when combining loss of satellite portfolio of services. Nonetheless, and revenue to telecom operators and losses to other despite these efforts, mobile subscriptions have businesses that depend mostly on the internet to been concentrated mostly in the 2G and 3G portions, operate, in addition to the social impact due to the covering 78 percent of the population compared to lack of means for communication during a crisis, and a 4G coverage that does not exceed 40 percent. A the impact on rescue efforts and their coordination stable and reliable 4G mobile network is sufficient in the areas where communication services were to introduce public and municipal digital service momentarily unavailable, and other implications on delivery. Network performance has also been rated the livelihood of citizens of the affected area (outlined at below average, standing at less than 40 points in the following section), the effects become much (out of 100) in the GSMA index score.205 In addition more acute. to the connectivity aspects, the digital sector in Libya lacks other structural infrastructure, with The overall impact on the ICT sector cannot be no IXPs or Data Centers identified in the country assessed without factoring in damages to the fixed to date. network. Losses from damage to copper and fiber optic infrastructure are expected to be much more significant. Fiber optic assets were deployed across the coastline and throughout the flooded area, making them more susceptible to damage not only from the floods but from rescue efforts and accidental damage. Moreover, in addition to enabling fixed services (phone and internet services), fiber optic 205 Source : GSMA intelligence 2023. 206 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. 146 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 39: Damaged Radio Towers Figure 40: Damage to Radio Towers and Baseline as of October 2023* 4.5 4 6 2 3.5 1 3 2.5 1 2 1.5 3 1 2 82 0.5 1 0 Wardam Soussa Al Bayda Pre-flood Baseline Partial damage Destroyed Partial damage Destroyed Source: Assessment team. *No damage was observed in the other municipalities not represented in these figures. Source: Assessment team. cables are also used for the intra-urban transport Moreover, all attempts by the RDNA team to receive and distribution of phone and internet traffic from data from the telecom operators on damage to fixed and mobile networks, which would cause copper and fiber optic assets were unsuccessful. impact on services from damages to these assets to affect a much larger area. Communication outages in The losses in Table 1 were calculated based only Libya have been reported by media outlets following on the damages to radio communication towers. the floods. The LPTIC has attributed this to a cut on To that end and considering the qualitative report fiber optic cables that was restored the same day. which indicates that no major impact was noticed Unfortunately, and given that fixed infrastructure on communication services in many of the affected is mostly deployed underground, city-level damage areas, a modest factor of .05 was used to calculate to them could not be assessed for the purposes of losses in the three affected municipalities: the RDNA using remote analytics (satellite imagery). Table 43: Damage and Loss - Telecommunications Partially Completely Total Cost Total Cost Asset Types Baseline damaged destroyed (in US$) (in LYD) DAMAGE Mobile communication towers 82 6 2 448,854 2,156,968 Total Damage 448,854 2,156,968 LOSS Loss of revenue due to downtime 82 6 2 22,443 107,848 of mobile communication towers Total Loss 22,443 107,848 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 147 Table 44: Telecommunications Damage and Loss by Municipality Total Damage Total Loss Total Damage + Loss # Municipality US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ LYD 1 Wardam 224,427 1,078,484 11,221 53,924 235,648 1,132,408 2 Soussa 183,622 882,396 9,181 44,120 192,803 926,516 3 Al Bayda 40,805 196,088 2,040 9,804 42,845 205,892 Total 448,854 2,156,968 22,443 107,848 471,297 2,264,816 Source: Assessment team. in assessing, planning, and implementing digital Linking Effects to Human infrastructure projects. The recovery strategy must Impact consider the cost for BBB, and make a paradigm shift at the sectoral level to mainstream the disaster The disruption of ICT services was brief. Based resilience of investments. The reconstruction and on assessment of radio communication towers, it rehabilitation needs of the ICT sector following appeared localized. Despite this, the impact of the the floods were calculated based on the sum of disruption of communication services has broad and damage and loss estimates in the three affected sometimes severe consequences on the livelihood municipalities of Wardam, Soussa and Al Bayda. A of citizens, social inclusion, and living conditions 70 percent increase of this value was made to reflect of communities and households. In addition to the the increase in the value of telecommunication early warning systems that rely on communication equipment and take stock of the inflation levels networks to reach their targeted population, damage witnessed globally, as well as to account for relief coordination and rescue efforts, which all use the incidental costs of shipment, transport, and communication services to have a strong impact installation of replacement equipment. The complex on the ground, suffer downtime as a direct effect of situation in Libya might also impose security communication service disruptions. premiums that could further increase the cost of reconstruction and restoration, albeit limited mostly Citizens who rely on internet services for remote to the acquisition of goods and services from outside employment, for trading goods and services, for the country and excluded in hiring local labor. access to administrative or financial services (banking, bills payment or mobile money etc.) will Given the high dependence of the telecom sector in face added difficulties in conducting business. The Libya on mobile communication, the most immediate effects are even more challenging and exacerbate recovery need would be to rebuild and gradually an already difficult situation for people with repair/upgrade the damaged radio communication disabilities and women. Women, who are generally towers. In the short-term, the destroyed towers in less connected to mobile communication, will be the two municipalities of Wardam and Soussa would particularly effected by the disruption of ICT services. have to be completely rebuilt. This was considered Women are also likely to see their opportunities, an immediate need and factored into the short-term which are already constrained, further reduced due needs assessment of the two municipalities given to the lack of connection availability, impacting areas that the rebuilding and assembly of the equipment such as online education and remote work. should take less than 12 months to complete. The cost of a radio tower includes the combined costs Recovery Needs and Strategy of the antennas, the transceiver station, the power generator, and the digital tower, and was estimated at US$ 120,012 (490,220 LYD equivalent). Repairs are The floods exposed the urgent need for systematic needed so that services to nearby populations in the changes to address vulnerabilities to natural hazard three affected municipalities are able to resume. The and climate risks, and to adopt a more realistic repair costs were reflected in the short-term estimate approach to improve resilience to natural shocks 148 Detailed Sector Assessments by including 30 percent of the total need of each systems and emergency response measures both at municipality to cover the first phase of reparations national and subnational levels. Structural reforms to the partially damaged towers in Wardam, Soussa of the telecom sector in Libya could help to realize and Al Bayda. Low-interest financing would be the its potential and boost its benefits to the economy most appropriate financial support approach. The and the wellbeing of the population. Reforms can communication towers’ repair/upgrade will create include (i) regulatory reforms to update the laws and a reliable platform for experimentation with digital regulation of the telecom sector, drive transparency, municipal service delivery. accountability, fair access and competition; (ii) private sector resource mobilization to address In the medium-term, the repair and upgrade of the the large investment needs of digital infrastructure partially damaged towers needs to be completed. To projects, and to greatly reduce the timeframe for this end, the remaining 70 percent of the total needs the development of the sector once the political and for each of the three affected municipalities could be economic situation is stabilized ; and (iii) the adoption used to complete the reparation efforts and ensure of a national broadband plan to improve the coverage the complete restoration of the damaged towers of high-speed internet and promote the use of up to climate and disaster resilience standards, internet services, particularly in underserved areas, especially given the critical role of telecommunication reduce the digital divide, and promote inclusion for infrastructure in enabling efficient early warning women and persons with disabilities. Table 45: Telecommunications Cost by Municipality # Municipality Needs category207 Cost (in US$) Cost (in LYD) 1 Wardam Rebuild/repair radio communication towers 400,602 1,925,094 2 Soussa Rebuild/repair radio communication towers 327,765 1,575,077 3 Al Bayda Repair radio communication towers 72,837 350,017 Total 801,204 3,850,188 Source: Assessment team. Table 46: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction - Telecommunications Short-term early recovery* medium-term* (1–12 months) (1–3 years) Total Cost Total Cost Intervention/Activity US$ LYD US$ LYD in US$ in LYD Rebuild radio communication towers 801,204 3,850,188 0 0 801,204 3,850,188 Repair Data Centers  0 0  0 0  0 0 Total Needs 801,204 3,850,188 801,204 3,850,188 Source: Assessment team. 207 Copied from table above. Detailed Sector Assessments 149 Linkages with Cross-Cutting Limitations themes There have been some major challenges to acquire data on the ICT sector in Libya during the The rebuilding and restoration of damaged assets preparation of the RDNA. The limited involvement must be preceded by the removal of debris and rubble of donors and private actors in the telecom sector clearance, and the safe disposal of electronic and in Libya has caused a significant scarcity of reliable communication equipment in full compliance with and accessible sector information. This has made environmental and social standards. The restoration it very challenging to establish a pre-revolution efforts do not appear to be labor intensive; however, baseline or acquire information on the deployment of the hiring of local consultants, contractors, and telecommunication assets, their specifications and semi-skilled and skilled workers could help create condition. Additionally, all attempts to consult with much needed employment for the local population. telecom operators to acquire updated information The reconstruction efforts could also be an and to try and evaluate the proportion of the damage opportunity to improve the design of communication have been unsuccessful. Despite the use of remote equipment, and to deploy more modern assets that analytics to assess damage to radio communication are more capable, more resilient to climate shocks, towers, damages to the fiber optics network (which and employing greener construction material and is responsible for the transport and distribution of more innovative and climate aware solutions for phone and internet traffic) have been impossible to power generation and heat dissipation, while also determine remotely. Further ground corroboration supporting more inclusive systems for women and of the damage data during the recovery planning and other minorities. implementation phase is advisable. 150 Detailed Sector Assessments WATER AND SANITATION, AND WATER RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Libya faces significant challenges in managing its without access to basic sanitation increased from water resources due to its arid climate and limited 490,000 in 2015 to 540,000 in 2022,211and only 69 water availability. Libya is among the most water- percent of the population is connected to the sewer scarce countries in the World, with an annual water system. Only 10 percent of the wastewater is treated, availability of roughly 100 cubic meters per capita, with the remainder discharged into the sea, pits, or far below the absolute water scarcity threshold tanks, posing significant environmental and health of 500 cubic meters per capita.208 The country concerns for many of Libya’s coastal cities.212 relies on four main sources of water: intermittent surface water along ephemeral wadis, shallow Water institutions suffer from fragmentation and groundwater, deep groundwater, and desalinated a number of management challenges, including seawater. However, most water resources in Libya insufficient financial and human resources, come from non-renewable groundwater in ancient among others. All of this combines to undermine aquifers, with little to no recharge taking place, the development and maintenance of vital water and over 95 percent of water supplies rely on related infrastructure. The is compounded by tariffs groundwater, a large portion of which is sourced and a rate of collection, encouraging excessive from fossil aquifers in the south and transferred to consumption and depriving service providers of the the population-dense northern part of the country, revenue needed for operation, maintenance, and with the remaining water supplies depending on development. Along with shortages in electricity, desalination, wastewater reuse and surface water. fuel and other supplies, these factors have led to numerous cuts in water and wastewater services, Water supply and sanitation services in Libya face especially in urban centers like Tripoli and Benghazi, several challenges and constraints. The share of the where the duration of water supply services has population with access to safe drinking water was declined from 24 to eight hours or less per day.213 estimated to be 95 percent in 2011. 209 However, this Furthermore, water and wastewater network losses had declined to an estimated 64 percent in 2019, are high (estimated at 35 to 50 percent),214 and many with domestic supply supplemented through a facilities operate at only partial capacity or have combination of water trucking and private vendors been rendered out of service.215 As a result, previous who desalinate brackish water. Access to sanitation gains in water security and sanitation access have remains a persistent challenge, with only 24 percent stagnated or declined. This has fueled ongoing of the population estimated to have access to safely grievances about unequal access to water across managed sanitation, and eight percent having no Libya. As a result, previous gains in water security access to basic sanitation.210 The number of people and sanitation access have stagnated or declined. 208 FAO, 2020. AQUASTAT. 209 WHO and UNICEF, 2023. https://washdata.org/data/household#!/. 210 WHO and UNICEF, 2023. https://washdata.org/data/household#!/. 211 WHO and UNICEF, 2023. https://washdata.org/data/household#!/. 212 WHO and UNICEF, 2023. https://washdata.org/data/household#!/. 213 World Bank, 2023. Libya Country Engagement Note. 214 UNICEF Libya Water Scarcity and Climate Change: an analysis on WASH enabling environment in Libya. 215 Many facilities operate at only partially their design capacity, on average 50 percent for water treatment plants and distribution networks, 35 percent for the man-made river project, 29 percent for desalination plants, and 20 percent for wastewater treatment plants, as estimated based on information from the General Authority for Water Resources. Detailed Sector Assessments 151 Figure 41: Damage and Loss by Asset Type (high estimates) - Water and Sanitation Dam Wastewater Treatment Plant Storage System Water Treatment Facility Water Pumping Stations WASH Administrative Facility Wastewater Treatment Facility - 40,000,000 80,000,000 120,000,000 160,000,000 US$ Damage Loss Source: Assessment team. The municipalities in the affected regions also infrastructure, including that listed in Table 1. While face significant challenges in providing consistent other assessments and reports indicate widespread water supply and wastewater treatment. This is and significant damage to and losses from smaller exemplified by the situation in Derna, which has 11 infrastructure elements – notably underground municipal branches sourcing their drinking water facilities such as water wells, (waste)water networks from a mix of groundwater wells, springs, surface and stormwater drainage systems – such damage wells, and a desalination plant which last operated can only be quantified through on-the-ground detailed in 2018. Only three branches can meet their water measurements. Hence, smaller infrastructure elements requirements without relying on trucking services. are excluded from the quantitative estimations below The daily public network supply is limited to a and only described in qualitative terms based on few hours, and almost all branches experience secondary information. occasional outages lasting several days, with infrastructural damage and partial operation being Damage Estimates from satellite data common issues. Furthermore, only some of Derna’s municipal branches are serviced by wastewater The total damage to the water sector is estimated facilities, which are either partially operational or at between US$ 127 million and US$ 146 million - completely non-operational, reflecting a broader average US$ 136 million (Table 1). This damage figure issue of inadequate WASH infrastructure. Similar is almost exclusively constituted by the complete challenges are also evident in other municipalities destruction of three major assets (US$ 55–60 million like Al Marj, Al Bayda, Shahaat, and Soussa. Several and US$ 9–11 million for the Bou Mansour and Derna water (and wastewater) indicators are below the dams, respectively; and US$ 60-70 million for the national average, highlighting the urgent need for wastewater treatment plant in Al Bayda). Partial or improved water management and infrastructure complete destruction of several smaller assets such repair at the municipal level.216 as storage systems, treatment facilities and pumping stations make up the remainder, while no damage Assessment of Disaster has been observed to most assets considered (Table 47). This is also apparent from the costs per Effects: Damage and Loss municipality (Table 28), where most municipalities Estimates217 have no observed damage to the waste and sanitation infrastructure considered, while significant costs Disclaimer. Since this RDNA relies on satellite images apply in the municipalities mentioned above. An to estimate damages to and losses from water estimated additional US$ 19 million to US$ 22 million assets, information is limited to larger, above ground (Average US$ 20.4 million) will be incurred (Table 47). 216 UN-Habitat (2022) Derna City Profile, Cario : UN-Habitat Regional Office for Arab States. 217 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. 152 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 47: Damage and Loss Inventory for Water and Sanitation Partially Completely Average Total Cost Average Total Cost Asset Types Baseline Damaged destroyed (in US$ million) (in LYD million) DAMAGE Dams 2 0 2 67,500,000 324,371,250 Storage Systems 47 3 2 2,400,000 11,533,200 Facilities, Desalination Plants 13 1 1 1,190,000 5,718,545 Water Pumping Stations 8 1 0 380,000 1,826,090 Wastewater Treatment Plant 1 0 1 65,000,000 312,357,500 Wastewater Treatment Facilities 3 0 0 0 0 WASH Administrative Facility 1 0 0 0 0 Total Damage 136,470,000 655,806,585 LOSS Dam 2 0 2 10,125,000 48,655,688 Storage System 47 3 2 360,000 1,729,980 Water Desalination Plants 13 1 1 178,500 857,782 Water Pumping Stations 8 1 0 57,000 273,914 Wastewater Treatment Plant 1 0 1 43,249,500 46,853,625 Wastewater Treatment Facility 3 0 0 - - WASH Administrative Facility 1 0 0 - - Total Loss 20,470,500 98,370,988 Total Average (High-level estimate) for damage and loss 156,940,500 754,177,573 Source: Assessment team. Table 48: Average Damages and Losses by Municipality – Water and Sanitation Total Damage  Total Loss  Total Damage + Loss   Municipality US$  LYD  US$  LYD  US$  LYD  Al Abraq - - - - - - Al Abyar 750,000 3,604,125 112,500 540,619 862,500 4,144,744 Al Bayda 65,000,000 312,357,500 9,750,000 46,853,625 74,750,000 359,211,125 Al Marj 1,050,000 5,045,775 157,500 756,866 1,207,500 5,802,641 Al Qayqab - - - - - - Al Qubah - - - - - - Benghazi 1,020,000 4,901,610 153,000 735,242 1,173,000 5,636,852 Detailed Sector Assessments 153 Total Damage  Total Loss  Total Damage + Loss   Municipality US$  LYD  US$  LYD  US$  LYD  Derna 67,500,000 324,371,250 10,125,000 48,655,688 77,625,000 373,026,938 Gemienis - - - - - - Jardas Al Abid - - - - - - Medouar Al Zetoun - - - - - - Ra’s Al Hilal - - - - - - Sahel Al Jabal - - - - - - Shahaat - - - - - - Soussa 850,000 4,084,675 127,500 612,701 977,500 4,697,376 Suloug 300,000 1,441,650 45,000 216,248 345,000 1,657,898 Toukara - - - - - - Umar Al Mukhtar - - - - - - Umm Arazam - - - - - - Wardam - - - - - - Total 136,470,000 655,806,585 20,470,500 98,370,988 156,940,500 754,177,573 Source: Assessment team. Figure 42: Total Damage and Loss by Municipality – Water and Sanitation 100,000,000 80,000,000 60,000,000 US$ 40,000,000 20,000,000 - Al Bayda Wardam Ras Al Hilal Sahel Al Jabal Al Qayqab Soussa Gemienis Jardas Al Abid Al Qubah Umm Arazam Umar Al Mukhtar Al Marj Medouar Al Zetoun Shahaat Suloug Toukara Al Abraq Al Abyar Derna Benghazi Source: Assessment team. 154 Detailed Sector Assessments Storm Daniel resulted in the catastrophic failure number of potential failure modes, with the current of two of Libya’s 18 large dams. This included the working hypothesis being that the failure is likely Bou Mansour Dam, a 75 m high embankment dam due to the high rainfall intensity, resulting in high with a clay core and a storage capacity of about inflow, a rapid increase in the reservoir level of the 18–22 Million Cubic Meter (MCM), located roughly upper Bou Mansour Dam culminating in overtopping 13 km upstream of the Derna Dam, which is a 45 and a subsequent dam breach. The breach of the m high embankment dam with a clay core and a Bou Mansour Dam released a torrent of water and storage capacity of about 1.5 MCM, situated roughly sediment which then overwhelmed the downstream 1 km upstream of the city of Derna. Both dams are Derna Dam. It would have taken an hour at most for located along the 60 km long Wadi Derna and were the water to reach Derna Dam, a distance of roughly constructed between 1973 and 1977 for the primary 11 km with a gradient of one percent. Eyewitness purpose of flood control .218 Their construction accounts report a sudden rise in water level between followed a series of major floods in 1941, 1959 and midnight and 2 am. The dam reportedly failed after 1968, and was based on studies conducted after the about 40 minutes of overtopping, which is within the catastrophic consequences of the 1959 floods. In normal duration, as the downstream shoulder of the addition to flood protection, the project reportedly dam slowly erodes, and the clay core then suddenly also catered for irrigation and water supply to Derna collapses resulting in the rapid release of water and surrounding communities.219 from the reservoir. The hydrological characteristics reflect the highly The tragic consequences resulted in more than 4,300 variable hydro-meteorological conditions of the reported fatalities, with more than 8,000 people still ephemeral Wadi Derna. The catchment area is missing. This is the result of the failure of the dams roughly 575 square km, with an annual average in Wadi Derna and the downstream consequences, rainfall of around 217 mm.220 This typically falls in both of which are the culmination of several factors. the months of October and November. It is estimated Among them, these include: (i) underestimated design that rainfall over the catchment area was 400 mm flood due to limited hydrological information available in 24 hours on September 10 compared to the long- in the 1970s (with unique ephemeral systems with term average daily precipitation of 1.5 mm for the highly variable hydrology); (ii) limited operation and month of September. The return period for such maintenance affected by the conflict, competing an event has been estimated to be a 1 in 300 to 1 resource demands, and governance issues. The in 600 years.221 The resulting inflow exceeded the consequences of the failure were accentuated by dams’ flood and spillway capacity, reported to be several factors including, (i) increased downstream 350 cubic metres per second (cumecs) for the Bou consequences due to population growth and Mansour dam and 170 cumecs for the Derna dam. economic development over the last ~50 years; (ii) The combination of the flood event, coupled with the limited forecasting of hydro-meteorological hazards reservoir volume of the Bou Mansour and the Derna and risk informed flood management measures; dams resulted in an estimated 30 million cubic and (iii) inadequate Early Warning Systems to ensure meters reaching the city shortly before 03:00 am people are evacuated. All of these factors are likely (UTC+2:00) on September 11, 2023. to have been accentuated by climate change, with the World Weather Attribution group finding that The failure of the dams in Wadi Derna and the tragic human-induced climate change made this event up downstream consequences are the result of several to 50 times more likely and up to 50 percent more compounding and cascading factors. There are a intense compared to a 1.2 C cooler climate222. 218 Hidrotehnika-Hidroenergetikaby is a Serbian company from the former Yugoslavia: https://www.hidrotehnika.rs/. 219 Including a pump station at Maquarr and water tank with capacity of 208 m3, water tanks at Fatayah with capacity of 2 x 7.000 m3, Derna-Bou Mansur Road 24 km long with 10 bridges with total length of 350 m. 220 https://hikersbay.com/climate-conditions/libya/darnah/alzrwf-almnakhyh-fy-drnh.html?lang=ar. 221 Zachariah, M et al. (2023) Interplay of climate change-exacerbated rainfall, exposure and vulnerability led to widespread impacts in the Mediterranean region. Report by World Weather Attribution. 222 This exceptional weather event is estimated to hit northern Libya once every 643 years. In a hypothetical, 1.2oC cooler world, this would be an even rarer event with a return period of 1900 years. (source: https://spiral.imperial.ac.uk/ bitstream/10044/1/106501/14/scientific%20report%20-%20Mediterranean%20floods.pdf ). Detailed Sector Assessments 155 Figure 43: Landscape Context of Derna Floods, September 10, 2023 Source: The Washington Post: https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/10/05/libya-derna-floods-disaster-government/ based on original sources: UNOSAT, Planet Labs PBC, Google Earth. In addition to the failure of the dams in Wadi Derna, • Al Marj’s water supply and sanitation and water damage was caused to several other water related resource sectors sustained minor damage, with assets with: at least four water and wastewater one storage system destroyed, and one partially facilities completely destroyed, another five partially damaged and partially functional. damaged, with the status of another seven unknown and requiring further investigation: • Benghazi city’s main source of water supply is the Man-Made River Project (MMRP), which is • Al Bayda’s water supply and sanitation sector providing two million cubic meters a day along sustained significant damage through the a 1,200 km pipeline from As-Safir and Tazerbo destruction of a wastewater treatment plant, to Benghazi and Sirte, via the Ajdabiya reservoir. posing risks to groundwater supplies which have The assessment shows that at least one storage been uncontaminated and suitable for drinking system, one water treatment facility and one to date. Areas devastated by the flood, such as water pumping station were partially damaged. Ganien, Al Tuffah, and New Al Bayda, have a shortage of drinking water and poor sanitation. • Soussa’s desalinization plant is non-functional, This, coupled with damage to infrastructure with the distillation plant out of service due to the in specific neighborhoods, has led to the large storm and the water purification unit has been displacement of these residents. destroyed, forcing people to rely on other sources 156 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 44: Al Belad (Derna) Dam, Prior (Left) and Post (Right) Flood PRINCIPAL SPILLWAY ADMIN BUILDINGS STILLIN BASIN/OUTLET CHANNEL UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM SLOPES Source: Assessment team. of water that are of poor quality and contaminated unaffected by the flood, despite many reports that due to mixing of sewage and drinking water.223 poor sanitation management and widespread wastewater spillage would foster the spread of • Al Abyar and Suloug have experienced damage diseases. A precise assessment of the damage to to storage facilities that have limited access to underground facilities is required to clarify these safe water supplies. conflicting statements and better inform people and the authorities of the status of water supply • Wastewater treatment facilities and water and sanitation facilities. supply administration buildings were reportedly 223 OCHA Flash Update No. 4. Detailed Sector Assessments 157 Figure 45: Bou Mansour Dam Prior (Left) and Post (Right) Flood PRINCIPAL SPILLWAY ADMIN BUILDINGS STILLIN BASIN/OUTLET CHANNEL UPSTREAM/DOWNSTREAM SLOPES Source: Assessment team. Damages to Water Supply and Sanitation living in high-impact areas have limited access infrastructure more broadly, from secondary to clean water. According to the National Center information. 70 percent of Derna’s water pipes for Diseases, the wells of Al Bilad and Jubailah are estimated to be at least partially damaged. are contaminated with sewage. The wells in these Piped water networks in al-Bilad and Jubaila neighborhoods are surface wells with a 6–10-meter neighborhoods were destroyed; the wells in al- depth and are no longer fit for use. The response to Bilad and Jubailah neighborhoods are contaminated addressing this damage and carrying out necessary with sewage and are no longer fit for use. The city’s repairs is challenged by a shortage of spare parts, Eastern Coast neighborhoods have not had water all of which must be imported. access since the crisis started. Consequently, those 158 Detailed Sector Assessments This includes storage systems, water pumping Linking Effects to Human stations, wastewater treatment facility and WASH Impact administration buildings; however, the service delivery restoration will be accurately assessed once A substantial proportion (40 percent) of the information is provided on household connections, population in the affected areas did not have access water meters, length of water supply network and to safe drinking water prior to the flood, depending sewerage network, etc. The infrastructure needs on public water tanks (US$ 50 cost for each family of to explore a range of options to manage the risks five persons) and are now more vulnerable to health associated with exposure to floods and covers the emergencies and likely to face greater difficulties in reconstruction of water treatment facilities and case of future disasters. wastewater treatment plants, during the first three years. Fixing the water supply and sanitation service The challenges faced by women in securing water delivery entails the replacement of the damaged for their households are even more significant and household connections and length of networks and merit special attention in the recovery. Even if water wells in the first year; this needs to be assessed is available, it may not always be safe, accessible, on the ground since satellite images do not provide or affordable. People draw drinking water from any information on underground assets. However, a variety of boreholes, water trucks, tap stands, the rehabilitation of the water supply and sanitation springs, rainwater, and surface water, many which networks and the replacement of damaged water may be damaged and/or unprotected.224 The lack meters require more attention and shall be covered of sufficient and clean water resources, combined in the medium term so that it can be integrated with with potential damage to sewage networks and the reconstruction of the water supply systems and sanitation facilities, and city-wide disruption in the wastewater treatment plant. access to healthcare, poses significant risks of disease outbreaks and disproportionately affects Flood risk is a function of hazard, exposure, and women’s health and hygiene needs225 . vulnerability. Hence, flood risk can increase if the frequency and intensity of extreme events Additional losses for the water sector may be related increase, for example due to climate change, and to the loss of service delivery and revenue collection. if more economic developments occur in the flood- However, since the beginning of the conflict, most prone areas (or a combination of both). Managing users have not been paying their water utility bills,226 flood risks therefore requires considering all three instead relying on alternative private supplies. The dimensions (hazard, exposure, and vulnerability) number of pre-crisis subscribers in the impacted in an integrated manner, through a combination area is not documented. Although these subscribers of “protection”, “prevention”, and “preparedness” may not pay until service delivery quality improves measures. These can include a range of structural again to pre-crisis levels, it is very difficult at this measures, including dam reconstruction using stage to assess the corresponding financial losses. improved data and design criteria, floodwalls, More clarity on the governance structure and embankments, and river training works, aimed at regulations of the water sector is first required.227 regulating water levels and redirecting flow paths. Non-structural measures complement structural Recovery Needs and Strategy interventions and focus on reducing the vulnerability and exposure of communities to flood hazards through floodplain zoning, land-use planning, and The tables below provide prioritized and building codes that require flood-resistant designs, sequenced needs for infrastructure restoration among others. Education and awareness campaigns and rehabilitation in the first year of the recovery. are also vital to inform individuals and communities 224 UNFPA Flash Appeal. 225 OCHA Libya Situation Report 4 Oct. 226 The water fee per subscriber covers water supply, wastewater operations and maintenance, and taxes. 227 The REACH survey of households shows that most of the households are connected to the public network without an official subscription to the General Company for Water and Wastewater (GCWW) and don’t pay water fees to access water from the public network due to frequent water outages even the fees do not match the current water consumption of households (that water fees are lower than the value of the service). In addition, most households do not have a meter and 46% are not willing to get one. Many of the households create a connection without notifying the GCWW, which may have negative impacts on the functionality of water infrastructure, and regularly cause leaks. REACH: Informing more effective humanitarian action. LBY_Water-scarcity Report_final2_toshare.pdf. Detailed Sector Assessments 159 Table 49: Asset Costs – Water and Sanitation Short-term early recovery*  Medium-term*  (1–12 months)  (1–3 years)  Total Cost Intervention/Activity US$ (million) LYD (million) US$ (million) LYD (million) US$ (million) LYD (million) Dams 9,082,125 43,644,152 91,830,375 441,290,867 100,912,500 484,935,019 Water Treatment 533,715 2,564,767 1,245,335 5,984,457 1,779,050 8,549,225 Facility (Desalination Plants) Wastewater Treatment 8,745,750 42,027,702 88,429,250 424,946,761 97,175,000 466,974,463 Plant Infrastructure 18,361,590 88,236,621 181,504,960 872,222,085 199,866,550 960,458,706 Reconstruction Total Storage System 1,076,400 5,172,640 2,511,600 12,069,494 3,588,000 17,242,134 Water Pumping 170,430 819,001 397,670 1,911,003 568,100 2,730,005 Stations Wastewater Treatment - - - - - - Facility WASH Administrative - - - - - - Facility Service Delivery 1,246,830 5,991,642 2,909,270 13,980,497 4,156,100 19,972,139 Restoration Total Combined total 19,608,420 94,228,262 184,414,230 886,202,582 204,022,650 980,430,845 Institutional 2,754,306 13,235,816 27,849,092 133,828,810 30,603,398 147,064,627 strengthening, CB, Master Planning, Technical and feasibility studies, water related studies, etc. Total 22,362,726 107,464,079 212,263,322 1,020,031,393 234,626,048 1,127,495,471 Source: Assessment team. about flood risks, preparedness, and response also an urgent need to conduct a national dam safety strategies, and can be coupled with insurance assessment and detailed dam safety site inspections programs and financial incentives for flood-resilient to determine structural integrity and provide a list of building practices. Holistic approaches that include dams that require repair and rehabilitation before both structural and non-structural measures and the next wet season. leverage the continuum of grey to green options are required to build resilience and promote a more Reconstruction needs for water supply and sustainable reconstruction. sanitation include infrastructure replacement and support for implementation. To meet daily water Early Recovery Needs. The RDNA team ascertained demands, there will be a need for rapid repair early recovery priorities based on the existing of damaged distribution systems, provision of available information and data on affected people. temporary filtration facilities and water delivery by Short-term interventions included providing semi- tankers. In the short term, priority should be given permanent and intermediate structures to support to rehabilitation of the damaged water distribution water and sanitation of affected people. There is networks, which can be accompanied by sanitation 160 Detailed Sector Assessments improvements and hygiene education programs. These should be accompanied by investments Thus, the early recovery needs should focus on in water supply and sanitation infrastructure, rehabilitation of partially damaged infrastructure. facilitating the transition from short-term emergency In addition, there is a need to monitor and assess response to longer term, sustainable water supply potential groundwater contamination due to damage and sanitation services. These measures will need to sanitation facilities. to be accompanied by efforts to strengthen the institutional arrangements for sustaining services. Short-Medium-term Recovery and Reconstruction The rapid dam safety assessment should be Needs. The short-term needs and associated expanded to include more detailed site-specific strategy should focus on: (i) providing water assessments and an investment program to support distribution networks for existing communities physical rehabilitation, monitoring and surveillance, and for selected new communities following land and institutional measures to improve the safety readjustment and small-scale relocation schemes; of dams and downstream communities. The Table (ii) provision of drainage and/or sewerage for below shows a matrix for both short- and medium- reconstructed neighborhoods; and (iii) upgrading of term support that would be needed for both sector facilities for improved disaster preparedness. institutional and infrastructure perspectives. Table 50: Costs by Municipality – Water and Sanitation Short-term early Medium-term Total Needs Total Needs # Municipality recovery (1–12 months) (1–3yrs) (0–3 years) in US$ (0–3 years) in LYD 1 Al Abraq - - - - 2 Al Abyar 336,375 784,875 1,121,250 5,388,167 3 Al Bayda 8,745,750 88,429,250 97,175,000 466,974,463 4 Al Marj 470,925 1,098,825 1,569,750 7,543,434 5 Al Qayqab - - - - 6 Al Qubah - - - - 7 Benghazi 457,470 1,067,430 1,524,900 7,327,907 8 Derna 9,082,125 91,830,375 100,912,500 484,935,019 9 Gemienis - - - - 10 Jardas Al Abid - - - - 11 Medouar Al Zetoun - - - - 12 Ra’s Al Hilal - - - - 13 Sahel Al Jabal - - - - 14 Shahaat - - - - 15 Soussa 381,225 889,525 1,270,750 6,106,589 16 Suloug 134,550 313,950 448,500 2,155,267 17 Toukara - - - - 18 Umar Al Mukhtar - - - - 19 Umm Arazam - - - - 20 Wardam - - - - Total 19,608,420 184,414,230 204,022,650 980,430,845 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 161 Table 51: Matrix of Short-Term and Medium- Term Needs – Water and Sanitation Type of support Short-term Medium-term Institutional • Support funding of operations and maintenance • Improve the capacity for planning, costs (staffing, equipment, materials). communications, citizen engagement, • Interim service arrangements for the General and financial sustainability of the water Company for Water and Wastewater (GCWW) to sector. Include the opportunity to BBB (for supply tankers for emergencies. example, by reducing energy use). • Support mechanism to pay salaries for staff at • Improve the enabling environment to the GCWW. encourage private sector participation. • Stop-gap energy provisions (fuel/diesel and • Improve the efficiency of existing generators). infrastructure and infrastructure planning, considering the capital and operational • Interim service arrangements for the GCWW to costs in the financial analysis. supply tankers. • Support re-establishing the customer • Spares to tackle O&M backlog. database and billing system. • Security to protect critical intakes and wells. • Water resources assessments. • Developing a prioritized recovery plan. • Support to implement recovery plan. Infrastructure • Conduct an in-depth ground assessment of • Reconnecting water company with grid water sector infrastructure (i.e., treatment electricity. plants, reservoirs, sewerage networks, water • Rehabilitating treatment plants, production supply networks, connections etc.), rapid facilities and network (water supply and assessment of dam safety and irrigation sewerage). infrastructure. • Rehabilitation of dams and irrigation • Make emergency repairs and rehabilitate water infrastructure. sector infrastructure to restore services. • Leakage control and preparing a non- • Back-up power generation systems (i.e., revenue water program. renewable energy). • Drilling new production boreholes or • Cleaning and disinfection of public wells, rehabilitation of existing ones. network and unblocking sewers. • Developing laboratories and monitoring • Emergency repairs to treatment plants, plans for water quality. production facilities and network (water and sewer). • Replacement of broken equipment. Source: Assessment team. irrigation services. In addition, a description of Recommendations and existing water treatment plants and associated Limitations infrastructure would be important to understand baseline conditions and allow more robust cost The rapid assessment relies on a combination of estimates. The recommendations for the recovery/ quantitative data derived from remote sensing and a reconstruction in the water sector are to: qualitative desk top review of reports available in the public domain for the water sector. To better estimate Assess damage to the drainage, sewerage, and the damage there is a need for more specific, water distribution network. The extent of damage ground trusted data and information to provide to these networks remains largely unknown. The more robust estimates about the infrastructure significant impact on land movement due to the flood and to understand the baseline conditions, the has presumably disrupted the underground piped extent and coverage of piped drainage, sanitation, networks, causing severe damage and disruption to water distribution networks, and investment services. However, it is difficult to determine these requirements for safe dams and maintenance of damages based on remote sensing, and a more 162 Detailed Sector Assessments detailed assessment of these networks is needed to Irrigation infrastructure status. Most larger develop reconstruction plans: irrigation schemes in the affected areas typically consist of steel pipe networks buried in the ground. • Water supply network. The networks constitute These underground networks may have become a very important and expensive component of dislocated and broken. Satellite imagery may be the overall water system infrastructure. Besides, suitable to identify wet areas. However, to fully their status in terms of number and size of leaks assess damage would involve specific on-ground determines the size of water losses. A more investigations such as pressure tests and other detailed investigation on the ground will be leakage detection techniques. needed to assess damage to networks and to develop reconstruction plans. Rehabilitation of water storage system. Water storage tanks bore the brunt of the damage. These • Sewerage network and construction of new are smaller projects that are distributed over a wastewater treatment plant. Work on the ground large area yet will be a priority for short-term will be needed to ascertain the specifications of reconstruction. the networks and treatment plant. Many critical infrastructure components will probably need Rehabilitation of existing wells and water maintenance that has been deferred during the monitoring. The extent of damage to water wells crisis. This could be a substantial cost. remains largely unknown. Many wells were drilled during conflict without considering the effect of National dam safety assessment. A rapid risk increased abstraction on groundwater levels, assessment of all other Libyan dams should be and groundwater resources are as a result over- carried out using remote sensing to geolocate exploited. Rehabilitation of these wells after the flood individual dams and assess potential downstream should be done strategically based on an informed consequences using population data and surrogates understanding of the longer-term sustainable yields. of economic activity (such as night lights). Based Undertaking water resources management studies, on this exercise, a prioritized list of dams can be developing water resources management plans, used to rank physical inspections and investment developing a regulatory framework for groundwater requirements for rehabilitation needs. While the management, and obtaining the equipment remote sensing assessment of dams is sufficient to necessary to monitor water resources will be a detect catastrophic dam failures, a more detailed, critical part of the reconstruction plan. structured process based on physical inspections is needed to evaluate and confirm the structural Strengthening sectoral capacity. In addition to the integrity of the national portfolio of dams. This reconstruction and rehabilitation of infrastructure, should be completed prior to the next rainfall period. substantial non-structural investments will be A longer-term rehabilitation program to ensure required to BBB. This will include, for example, a the safety of dams and downstream communities detailed stocktaking of water resources management is needed to identify and finance structural works capacity, assessment of the human capital available required to protect assets, sustain the provision of and necessary to restore functionality, and water for related services; as well as non-structural hydrological studies to strengthen water resources measures, such as institutional capacity and management capacity, in addition to investment in emergency plans to strengthen preparedness in early warning systems to detect possible climate case of subsequent dam failures. This would require change events. Since the onset of the conflict in Libya, at least six to ten years to implement effectively. there has been little engagement with customers; and billing systems, fees and their collection would Rehabilitate critical infrastructure. Reductions in need to meet both customer and water authority functionality are primarily for non-technical reasons needs. Currently, a lack of revenue hampers the and therefore, given appropriate conditions, much water authority’s ability to operate and maintain of the critical infrastructure is expected to return water related infrastructure and services. to functional status. However, storage systems and wastewater treatment plants received the brunt of the damage and should be assessed and rehabilitated quickly to provide safe drinking water and sanitation services. Detailed Sector Assessments 163 MUNICIPAL SERVICES The desk review conducted as part of the municipal public markets, creation facilities, civil registry, and service sector assessment has concluded that issue of construction permits, local police, local while a reasonable level of information is available markets, slaughterhouses, promoting and managing on the evolution and qualitative assessments of business incubators and enforcing municipal the legislative and institutional arrangements of regulations. They will also need to enforce municipal municipal governance in the country, the sector and environmental regulations and prepare and suffers from a serious lack of quantitative data on implement urban plans and development regulations.230 the level of municipal services provided by central Under Law 59 which MOLG is currently studying an and local governments. Due to the divergent delivery amendment for, municipalities are responsible for the of services by municipalities and the absence of provision of an array of services such as health and regular municipal asset auditing and reporting social affairs, water and sanitation services, lighting, systems, it is difficult to assess satisfactorily the local roads, public hygiene, gardens, public markets, flood-related effects experienced by the sector creation facilities, civil registry, and issue of construction based on the pre-and post-disaster municipal permits, local police, local markets, slaughterhouses, service conditions. Since this sector continues to promoting and managing business incubators and experience functional uncertainties, it is desirable to enforcing municipal regulations. They will also need to place the sectoral damage and effects and recovery enforce municipal and environmental regulations and interventions within an institutional framework for prepare and implement urban plans and development formulating a sustainable recovery strategy. regulations.231 However, many services continue to be provided by centralized State-Owned Enterprises Institutional Context which have not yet devolved authority to the municipal level. There also continues to be an absence of a streamlined municipal administrative framework, The conceptual framework for a decentralized and many Municipal Councils lack the requisite technical governance structure in Libya evolved after the 2011 expertise in different capabilities such as management revolution. During the revolution, many municipalities skills, experience of best practices and digital literacy, played key roles in the provision of basic services as which was flagged by several stakeholders.232 The well as managed local affairs228 by establishing Local municipal service sector recovery strategy should Councils, Military Councils, Neighborhood Councils, address these institutional and technical challenges and Committees for networking and managing experienced by the local governments through key municipal functions. These initiatives laid the inclusive and sustainable coordination with levels of foundation for the current local governance structure government and partnerships with CSOs. Importantly, of municipalities.229 Under Law 59 municipalities are while Law 59 sets out the competencies of local responsible for the provision of an array of services government, the political devolution of power has not such as health and social affairs, water and sanitation been clearly addressed in any of the constitutional services, lighting, local roads, public hygiene, gardens, arrangements. 228 For example, during the revolution, Benghazi and Misrata cities formed Local Councils, Military Councils, Neighborhood Councils, and multiple other Committees for networking and managing key functions. 229 European Union Delegation to Libya, Libyan Local Governance Case Studies, 2017. 230 GNC Law No. (9) of March 28, 2013, amending Law No. (59) of 2012 on the local administration system. Available From: http://www.log.gov.ly/downloads/add07-2013.pd. 231 For example, the municipalities of Sirit are responsible for public services within their jurisdiction. In addition, they give the authorizations for touristic and investment projects and oversee local civil records, local police, local markets and slaughterhouses, local roads and bridges, local business licenses, local control of environment and health, and creation and management of small business incubators (UN-HABITAT, City Profile of Sirit, Benghazi, 2018, page 25. 232 Article 25 of the Law gave municipal councils primary authority in civil registration, control of the municipal guards (health and safety), local markets, and slaughterhouses, management of local transport infrastructure, Issuance of licenses at the local level, monitoring of environmental and health issues, the Law No. 9 increased the responsibilities of municipalities by legally transferring several provincial powers to municipal councils. However, none of these powers has been transferred and Mayors and Councils struggle to serve the growing needs of their citizens through ad hoc personal initiatives to garner support from patrons inside or outside the central government World Bank, The Long Road to Inclusive Institutions in Libya, 2023, page 406. 164 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 52: Damage Assessment of Municipal Assets Total Total Damaged Destroyed Partly Damaged % of Assets Municipal Assets233 Units Units Units Units Damaged Town/City Hall 32 3 0 3 9.4 Police Station 79 10 3 7 12.7 Fire Station 6 0 0 0 0.0 Community Market 40 7 3 4 17.5 Entertainment (theatre) 63 6 2 4 9.5 Municipal Building 46 8 1 7 17.4 Total Assets 266 34 9 25 12.8 Source: Assessment team. Assessment of Disaster within these buildings, it is assumed that all those services being provided before the disaster will be Effects: Damage and Loss resumed after the rehabilitation and reconstruction Estimates234 of these municipal assets. Damage to the municipal assets listed above (Table 52) is estimated for the The assessment has attempted to review the damage 20 municipalities. Nearly 13 percent of the total impacts to the following municipal assets - town/ municipal assets assessed are damaged, however, city hall, police and fire stations, entertainment, only 3.4 percent are destroyed. Police stations, community market, municipal building - irrespective municipal buildings and entertainment facilities of their domain responsibilities. It is important to note experienced higher levels of destruction as that many of these municipal assets may have been compared to other service facilities. affected in previous years by the impacts of conflict, as well as fragile and fragmented institutions. Damage costs of the municipal assets affected by the Since some of the major municipal infrastructure flood are calculated based on the average physical and services such as water and sanitation, waste surfaces235 of these assets and the unit cost for collection, and roads and transport are planned and reconstruction and rehabilitation, including basic maintained by their respective sectoral ministries furnishings.236 Based on the assumptions that partly and agencies, they are covered in their respective damaged assets are functional, additional costs sectoral assessments. While the damage and loss for rehabilitating the functions are included as part and cost for reconstruction of destroyed and partly of the service costs. The total damage cost of the damaged municipal service assets will be discussed municipal service assets assessed is estimated at based on the assessment outcomes, it is important to US$ 11.7 million (LYD 56.4 million) at the replacement recognize that their functionalities will be determined value prices prior to the disaster (Table 53). by the level of physical damage. Information based on social analytics indicates that most of the partly The damage cost estimation of municipal assets damaged public assets are functional. In the absence across various municipalities suggests that Derna, of any ground-level assessments of the structure Soussa and Al Bayda municipalities incurred and form of the multiple services being provided relatively higher damage costs compared to other municipalities (Table 54). 233 Debris removal cost is assessed as part of the infrastructure recovery cost. 234 Damage is classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage is classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. 235 Average surfaces used in square meter for each asset were the following: 660 for Town/City Hall, 3,800 for Police Station, 2,500 for Community Market, 795 for Entertainment, 500 for Municipal Building. 236 The basic construction cost applied for estimating the damage cost is US$ 300/sq.m. Detailed Sector Assessments 165 Table 53: Damage Cost by Municipal Assets Damage Cost of Damage Cost of Partly Total Damage Total Damage Cost – LYD Municipal Assets  Destroyed Assets - US$ Damaged Assets - US$ Cost -US$  (1 US $ = 4.8055 LYD)  Town/City Hall  - 237,600 237,600 1,141,787 Police Station  3,420,000   3,192,000   6,612,000   31,773,966 Fire Station  - - - - CommunityMarket   22,50,000   12,00,000   34,50,000 1,65,78,975 Entertainment 4,77,000   3,81,600   8,58,600 41,26,002 (theatre) Municipal Building  150,000 420,000  570,000   2,739,135   Total  6,297,000 5,431,200 11,728,200 56,359,865 Source: Assessment team. Table 54: Damage Cost per Municipality for Municipal Services Baseline Destroyed Partly Damaged Damage Cost Damage Cost Municipalities Units Units Units (US$) (LYD) Al Abraq 6 0 0 - - Al Abyar 18 1 0 699,667 3,362,248 Al Bayda 17 1 5 1,785,907 8,582,174 Al Marj 20 0 0 - - Al Qayqab 3 0 0 - - Al Qubah 16 0 0 - - Benghazi 81 0 5 1,086,240 5,219,926 Derna 11 7 1 5,114,915 24,579,722 Gemienis 8 0 0 - - Jardas Al Abid 0 0 0 - - Medouar Al Zetoun 2 0 0 - - Ra’s Al Hilal 0 0 0 Sahel Al Jabal 1 0 0 - - Shahaat 17 0 2 434,496 2,087,971 Soussa 16 0 11 2,389,728 11,483,838 Suloug 31 0 0 - - Toukara 10 0 0 - - Umar Al Mukhtar 1 0 0 - - Umm Arazam 7 0 0 - - Wardam 1 0 1 217,248 1,043,985 TOTAL 266 9 25 11,728,200 56,359,865 Source: Assessment team. 166 Detailed Sector Assessments Loss: Since most of the municipal services are for strengthening the delivery capacity of service being delivered by relevant public authorities at the providers. Since restoration of damaged assets and national level, primarily by the GNU’s Ministry of service provisions are managed by Government Local Government, the level of services provided by Agencies and Municipal Bodies, it is assumed that the Municipalities is limited and hence the loss to the investment multiplier could be about 1.3 for Municipalities is considered limited after the flood. covering financial and physical contingencies (15 Besides, due to the lack of any credible municipal asset percent) and BBB practices (15 percent). Security service auditing, it is not realistic to estimate changes and insurance premiums are not included in the in the level and quality of services and incremental investment multiplier due to the nature of government increase in the capital and revenue expenditures interventions involved in the municipal service sector expected to be incurred by the Municipalities after the recovery, and for internalizing the security risks disaster. In the absence of any user charges levied through government security mechanisms. The total by the Municipal Councils for the services provided recovery investment need from the Municipal Service by them, the financial loss due to the damage sector for the rehabilitation of partly damaged and and discontinuation of service provision is also reconstruction of destroyed assets is estimated at insignificant, except in the case of property registry US$ 15.2 million (LYD 73.3 million) at current prices revenue loss.237 Hence this assessment did not (Table 54). While nearly US$ 3.7 million is required estimate the economic loss incurred by the municipal towards service costs for making the damaged service sector in the disaster-affected regions. facilities operational, about US$ 1.5 million is required for providing technical assistance supports, including Linking Effects to Human on climate change. The total recovery investment need of the municipal service sector is estimated at Impact US$ 20.5 million (LYD 98.6 million). Quality of Life: Irrespective of which agency provides Sequencing Investment Needs: Since access to basic the public and municipal services, the quality of life of services is critical for improving quality of life and people and the ease of rehabilitating economic activities livelihoods of disaster-affected families and reviving in cities and towns are determined by the quality and economic enterprises, it is assumed that 80 percent level of basic services. Although, technically most of of the partly damaged assets will be restored during the municipal services listed in the Law 59 come under the short term and the rest over the medium and long the functional domains of the municipalities, mostly terms. Although a large part of the reconstruction of the relevant Ministry Departments and Agencies, destroyed assets will be taken up during the medium directly or indirectly operating through the Ministry and long terms, it is assumed nearly 20 percent of of Local Government at the national level, provide destroyed assets that are critically required for the much of these services. Basic infrastructure such as safety and security of citizens will be reconstructed roads and transport, water supply and sewerage, and during the short term, for example police stations. It effluent treatments are provided by the respective is also assumed that nearly 30 percent of the service Line Ministries. In the absence of functional and costs and 40 percent of the technical assistance fiscal devolution and the lack of technical capacity financing will be allocated for the short term and municipalities currently function as the delivery arms the rest over the medium and long terms. Based on of Ministries and Agencies, although during times these assumptions, the short-term investment need of emergencies, their level of cooperation is more is estimated at US$ 9 million (LYD 43.3 million) and effective as compared to normal times. US$ 11.5 million (LYD 55.3 million), which would be required for the medium and long terms (Table 56). Recovery Needs and Strategy However, it is important to recognize that due to a large number of unknown factors affecting the pace The recovery investment needs are estimated based and effectiveness of recovery investment planning on the following recovery needs, such as cost of – including as it relates to financing reconstruction repairs of partly damaged assets, reconstruction of efforts, potential access constraints, and the fluid destroyed assets, service cost of improved provision security context – the sequencing of recovery needs of these services either by the government and should be perceived as an iterating and flexible municipal agencies, or through contracted vendors/ processes, with midterm revisions. Application of community agencies, and technical support cost rolling work plan strategy is a desirable operating 237 This loss is taken into consideration in the housing damage economic loss estimation. Detailed Sector Assessments 167 Table 55: Total Recovery Investment Needs for Municipal Services Recovery Interventions Recovery Investment - US$ Recovery Investment - LYD Repair of Partly Damaged Assets 7,060,560 33,929,521 Reconstruction of Destroyed Assets 8,186,100 39,338,304 Service Costs 3,755,388 18,046,517 Technical Capacity Building 1,524,666 7,326,782 TOTAL 20,526,714 98,641,124 Source: Assessment team. Table 56: Sequencing Recovery Investments for Municipal Services Short Term Medium/ Long Term Total Recovery Total Recovery (<1 Year)  (1–3 Years  Investment  Investment  Recovery Interventions  US$  LYD  US$  LYD  US$  LYD  Repair of Assets  5,648,448   27,143,617 1,412,112 6,785,904   7,060,560   33,929,521   Reconstruction Costs  1,637,220   7,867,661   6,548,880   31,470,643   8,186,100   39,338,304   Service Costs  1,126,616   5,413,955   2,628,772   12,632,562   3,755,388   18,046,517   Technical Assistance  609,866   2,930,713   914,800   4,396,069   1,524,666   7,326,782   TOTAL  9,022,151   43,355,946   11,504,563   55,285,178   20,526,714   98,641,124   Source: Assessment team. strategy to mitigate technical and operational risks to demarcate the functional and fiscal responsibilities entailed in the recovery programming in the country. of central and municipal councils is a serious lacuna to be addressed for making the Ministries and Recovery Strategy: In the absence of fiscal and clear Municipal Councils accountable for the effective and functional devolution, almost all Municipalities depend sustainable provision of basic municipal services. on fiscal transfers from the Central authorities to Effective implementation of sector recovery and meet their revenue and capital expenditures, although provision of sustainable public services cannot some municipalities discretionally collect transit take place in the context of current ambiguous fees, rents for government buildings, and fees for institutional arrangements between the Ministries issuing construction permits.238 In the absence of and Municipalities. So, the first step for formulating a any national policies and guidelines for fiscal and sustainable recovery strategy is to operationalize Law financial devolutions at the level of Municipalities, 59 through the required amendments and executive revenue generation by some of them is undertaken orders as well as conduct local elections to create discretionally and in limited areas based on the pro- effective and inclusive municipal bodies. Administrative activeness and acceptability of Municipal Councils by and functional disparities in municipal services the local population. Hence it is difficult to generalize between institutions at the central and municipal the current practices for the provision of municipal levels could be addressed by embracing the principles services. of subsidiarity and sustainability. These structural issues shall be addressed through a combination of Damage assessment and prioritization of recovery legislative, consultative, and participatory strategies. needs should therefore recognize these institutional Besides, a space for prototyping selected digital limitations while planning recovery investment municipal services in the affected municipalities programs. It is observed that the limitations of Law 59 should be ensured and maintained. 238 Some municipal councils can informally raise local taxes: for example, Zwara (crossing fee), Zliten (tax from company), Al Bayda (local taxes), World Bank, RPBA-Municipal Sector Report, 2023. 168 Detailed Sector Assessments ensure equitable and non-discretionary provision of Linkages with Cross-Cutting services, including for vulnerable communities such themes as women, displaced populations, and migrants. In addition, municipalities should be encouraged/ The increasing likelihood of development risks due trained on resource mobilization strategies that to climate change (such as the floods) underscores they can use to secure additional funding for climate the critical need for climate-informed planning.  It resilience projects. Furthermore, addressing mental is crucial to integrate climate considerations into health and psychosocial support needed by families municipal planning and provide capacity building in affected areas calls for the integration of child- going forward. For example, integrating climate friendly public spaces in each residential area as part change considerations into urban planning can help of the reconstruction efforts, which service could be identify areas at risk of flooding or extreme heat, provided by the municipal authorities (through the and develop strategies to adapt infrastructure and provision of available municipal buildings and/or the land use to minimize these risks. By incorporating development of public spaces). The establishment climate change into their planning processes, of these public spaces for children and families is municipalities can implement measures that vital to restoring the social and mental well-being of enhance resilience while reducing Greenhouse families. Gas emissions. Moreover, in line with international frameworks like the Paris Agreement and SDGs, Limitations municipalities should align their climate actions with global objectives for sustainable development. In the An important limitation of this rapid assessment is context of protracted conflict and ongoing institutional the lack of verifiable baseline data on the number fragmentation, the restoration of municipal services of municipal assets and quantification of the warrants streamlined institutional arrangements differential effects of the disaster on the level and and devolution of fiscal authorities to ensure that quality of services. This is particularly important service provisions are sustainable and effective. in a context in which the flood exacerbated pre- Application of partial cost recovery strategies and existing vulnerabilities due to legacies of conflict tools should be conceptualized and implemented not and institutional fragility, and where municipal only as resource generation mechanisms but also assets and service delivery may have already been as means to ensure sustainable use of resources. damaged or affected by insecurity. In the absence There is no uniform application of user charges, of such service mappings, the determination of the municipal taxes, and other cost recovery tools in disaster impacts of municipal services would require place in the country. Some of the municipal bodies further verification. In the absence of the verifiable unofficially levy transit fees, building permit fees, baseline data239, damage cost is estimated based and rents, although, this practice is not universally on the number of municipal assets damaged during applied across all municipalities. Since one of the the disaster, and the pre- and post-disaster impacts main challenges experienced by municipalities on the quality and adequacy of these basic services is the inadequate financial resources and their could not be mapped satisfactorily. A second total dependency on transfers from the center of limitation is the assessment of the functionality of the government for the appropriations of funds for assets damaged during the disaster. In the absence capital and revenue expenditure through fiscal of verifiable functional status of the assets damaged transfers, effective and sustainable provision of during the flood, it is assumed that most of the partly municipal services could be attempted only through damaged assets are functional. Third, itemized a combination of resource mobilization, appropriate service costing could not be carried out due to the beneficiary targeting and efficient expenditure absence of localized information related to service management. Given the context of high levels of provision. The proportional costing approach applied exclusion and marginalization, it is critical to put in the assessment could be improved with itemized forward integrated service management approaches costing during the recovery planning process. with strong grievance redress mechanisms to 239 The baseline data provided in this assessment is based on the projected service assets calibrated by the vendor, and hence should be treated as tentative. Field level assessment is required to validate the veracity of the baseline asset inventory. 169 CROSS- CUTTING SECTORS © Seraj Elhouni/Shutterstock.com 170 Detailed Sector Assessments GOVERNANCE AND PUBLIC INSTITUTIONS Since the 2011 revolution, Libya has faced Public finances in Libya have been heavily dependent significant challenges that have exacerbated on volatile hydrocarbon earnings, with almost the fragility dynamics, including as they relate to entire public budget financed by oil revenues (98 governance challenges– all of which have been percent240). A particular aspect of the limited capacity intensified by external and compounding shocks. of Libyan institutions is the weakness of the PFM As per the WB’s Worldwide Governance Indicators systems. The State Financial System Law of 1967, (WGI), Libya’s performance in all six areas, including and its amendments, and the Budgets, Accounts rule of law, as well as voice and accountability, and Warehouse Regulations constitute the current has deteriorated between 2012 and 2022, and Public Financial Management (PFM) legislation in lags behind the averages of both upper middle- Libya. Other relevant legislation includes Law No. income countries and other countries in the Middle (13) (2000) on planning, and Law No. (2) (2007) on East and North Africa region (see Figure 47). controlling, and later amendments, which shape Libyan institutions face challenges due to limited the practical steps for preparing and executing accountability and capacity, thus exacerbating the the budget. A critical limitation of the current PFM drivers of fragility and conflict. Following a period systems is the lack of regularly issued financial of a relative decrease in conflict incidents, such statements, whereby the latest set of consolidated institutional weaknesses pose a key challenge financial statements submitted to the Libyan Audit to recovery processes particularly after the Bureau (LAB) was for Fiscal Year 2009. And while devastating floods that took place in Eastern Libya. municipal councils are audited individually, it is not clear whether any financial statements from local governments have been submitted. Figure 46: Worldwide Governance Indicators: Libya (2012, 2017 and 2022) Percentile Rank (0 to 100) Percentile Rank (0 to 100) Voice and Accountability Libya 2012 Regulatory Quality Libya 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 Middle East & North Africa 2012 Middle East & North Africa 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 Upper middle income 2012 Upper middle income 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 Political Stability and Libya 2012 Rule of Law Libya 2012 Absence of 2017 2017 Violence/Terrorism 2022 2022 Middle East & North Africa 2012 Middle East & North Africa 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 Upper middle income 2012 Upper middle income 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 Government Libya 2012 Control of Corruption Libya 2012 Effectiveness 2017 2017 2022 2022 Middle East & North Africa 2012 Middle East & North Africa 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 Upper middle income 2012 Upper middle income 2012 2017 2017 2022 2022 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: https://info.worldbank.org/governance/wgi/Home/Reports (December 2023). 240 World Bank, June 2023, Libya Economic Monitor Spring 2023. Detailed Sector Assessments 171 Table 57: Central Bank of Libya (CBL) Data - January– December 2022 Ministry of Local Chapter 1 Chapter 2 Chapter 3 Chapter 5 Government and its Salaries Goods and Development Chapter 4 Contingency Total affiliates and Wages Services expenditure Subsidies (Miscellaneous) Spending % 001 - Ministry of Local 175,948,835 125,569,659 0 747,744,656 0 1,049,263,150 66.5% Government 002 - Municipal Guard 292,719,703 6,000,000 0 0 0 298,719,703 18.9% Device 003 - General 0 1,550,000 0 0 0 1,550,000 0.1% Secretariat of the Supreme Council for Local Administration 004 - Historic Cities 2,641,519 500,000 0 0 0 3,141,519 0.2% Authority 005 - Ghadames 1,845,678 2,000,000 0 0 0 3,845,678 0.2% City Development Authority - Ghadames 006 - General 0 95,632,987 0 0 0 95,632,987 6.1% Services Company - Tripoli 007 - Municipal 0 13,000,000 0 0 0 13,000,000 0.8% Council – Misurata 008. Benghazi 0 100,000,000 0 0 0 100,000,000 6.3% Municipal Council 009. Jadu Municipal 0 5,000,000 0 0 0 5,000,000 0.3% Council 010. Zliten Municipal 0 8,000,000 0 0 0 8,000,000 0.5% Council 473,155,735 357,252,646 0 747,744,656 0 1,578,153,037 100.0% 30% 23% 0% 47% 0% 100% Source: CBL website - https://cbl.gov.ly/en/revenue_and_expendit/ (Last accessed in May 2023during the World Bank-CBL workshop in Amman, Jordan). Another complicating factor is the absence of a the purposes of capital investment expenditures unified and officially promulgated national budget. (Chapter three). These ad hoc measures used to In the absence of officially promulgated national circumvent limitations resulting from a lack of an budgets, the State Financial System Law allows for official national budget are increasingly prevalent. continued expenditures on Chapter one (Salaries), Chapter three (development and capital projects) Although significant progress has been made in and Chapter four (Subsidies) at a rate of one devolving fiscal responsibilities from the national to twelfth of the last approved budget. This approach local government, the process remains incomplete continues to nominally justify the majority of public and contested. Following the 2011 revolution, several expenditures. Municipal personnel, as with all laws, and decrees, most notably Law 59 (2012), government personnel, receive salaries via the officially established a three-tiered local government unified system of salaries administered by the structure composed of governorates, municipalities, central Ministry of Finance (MoF). Other budgetary and central government deconcentrated units allotments are provided on an ad hoc basis through called Executive Offices (EOs).241 So far only the ‘Special Measures’. This includes allotments for municipalities have been established, and according 241 Including law No. 59 Concerning the Local Administration System, passed by the National Transitional Council in 2012, as well as the Executive Regulation of Law no. 597 and Cabinet Decree no. 130 of 2013 issuing the executive regulation of Law no. 598. 172 Detailed Sector Assessments to Law 59, the municipality is responsible for the direct the GNU, called the Benghazi and Derna Construction provision of several services to citizens. However, Fund (BDCF), while another is managed by the a critical challenge relates to municipal financial Benghazi-based administration.242 The BDCF was management, as not all government services and/or established to lead the reconstruction process of the sectors operating within the municipality are part of cities and areas affected by conflict. After the recent the municipal financial management system. In fact, disaster, the BDCF adopted an “Emergency Works in many cases, certain government departments Strategy” to develop a vision and priority projects. are directly under central line ministries, with no Implementation has been characterized by complex oversight nor control from the municipality on the coordination among the multiple and fragmented activities of these departments. MoLG provides channels for project funding across municipalities, oversight of the municipalities, yet there remain line ministries, and the BDCF. Challenges relating challenges with regards to defining the roles and to the independence of the Libyan Audit Bureau responsibilities between central and subnational also poses risks, particularly with regards to authorities, which are further exacerbated by transparency and accountability in the flow and use ongoing political contestation. of recovery funds. Given the limited nature of current financial resources and fiscal decentralization, there is insufficient Assessment of Disaster Effects information to determine the adequacy of fiscal Following Storm Daniel, four of the 33 provincial resources currently made available to the affected administration buildings and three out of 11 national municipal councils to fund the relief and recovery administration buildings were partially damaged. efforts needed to ensure smooth reconstruction of The damage caused to public institution buildings the flood-affected areas. It is also important to note has adversely affected the delivery of public services here that there are no contingency funds for disaster through road infrastructure damage, limiting access or emergency conditions. This is exacerbated by the to facilities, and hindering service distribution. lack of institutional capacity to efficiently prepare and Internet connectivity is intermittent and continues implement projects and deliver municipal services. to be a challenge for those living in neighborhoods devastated by Storm Daniel. Prior to the flood, two Benghazi and Derna Construction funds existed. One was established by Table 58: Damage and Losses to Public Institutions243 Partially Completely Total Cost Total Asset Types Baseline Damaged destroyed (in US$ million) (in LYD million) DAMAGE Courthouse 20 4 0 0.599 2.880 Post Office 64 5 0 0.333 1.600 Provincial Administration 33 4 0 0.133 0.640 National Administration 11 3 0 0.125 0.600 Government Office 0 0 0 - - Total Damage 1.190 5.720 LOSS Courthouse 20 4 0 0.180 0.9 242 Note that the fund managed by the Benghazi-based administration’s High Response and Emergency Committee held a donors’ conference on November 1-2, 2023, in Benghazi. 243 Unit Cost - Courthouse $374, 571; Post Office $166,476; Provincial Administration $83,238; National Administration $104,047; and Government Office $62,428. Detailed Sector Assessments 173 Partially Completely Total Cost Total Asset Types Baseline Damaged destroyed (in US$ million) (in LYD million) Post Office 64 5 0 0.100 0.4 Provincial Administration 33 4 0 0.040 0.2 National Administration 11 3 0 0.037 0.2 Government Office 0 0 0 - - Total Loss 0.357 1.716 Source: Assessment team. Table 59: Damages and Losses to Public Institutions by Municipality Total Damage (in US$ million) Total Loss (in LYD million)244 Total Damage + Loss (in million) Municipality US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ LYD Al Abraq - - - - - - Al Abyar - - - - - - Al Bayda 0.133 0.640 0.040 0.192 0.173 0.832 Al Marj 0.067 0.320 0.020 0.096 0.087 0.416 Al Qayqab - - - - - - Al Qubah - - - - - - Benghazi 0.108 0.520 0.032 0.156 0.141 0.676 Derna 0.441 2.120 0.132 0.636 0.574 2.756 Gemienis - - - - - - Jardas Al Abid 0.033 0.160 0.010 0.048 0.043 0.208 Medouar Al Zetoun - - - - - - Ra’s Al Hilal - - - - - - Sahel Al Jabal - - - - - - Shahaat - - - - - - Soussa 0.108 0.520 0.032 0.156 0.141 0.676 Suloug 0.150 0.720 0.045 0.216 0.195 0.936 Toukara - - - - - - Umar Al Mukhtar - - - - - - Umm Arazam 0.150 0.720 0.045 0.216 0.195 0.936 Wardam - - - - - - Total 1.190 5.720 0.357 1.716 1.547 7.436 Note: Blank cells indicate municipalities with no reported damages. Source: Assessment team. 244 Loss estimated at 30 percent of damage cost. 174 Detailed Sector Assessments public services. Moreover, frail intergovernmental Linking Effects to Human coordination is expected to negatively impact the Impact recovery process. This will have significant impacts on the Libyan government’s ability to channel, Libya’s vulnerability to conflict and fragility has led to manage, disburse, and monitor the reconstruction development, governance, and institutional capacity and recovery funds allocated to the eastern indicators falling below those of comparable middle- municipalities or institutions. In line with best income countries (MIC). Weak local government practices and lessons learned from international institutions and limited capacity pose significant experience, setting up parallel structures should risks to the recovery process, especially as it be considered only as a last resort, as if such relates to the management of reconstruction and structures are designed to be non-inclusive, they funds. This can potentially effect public confidence may further erode public confidence and legitimacy in state institutions. To this end, the Settlement- in state institutions, and dilute the process of based Assessment (SBA) conducted by REACH intergovernmental coordination and relationships in March 2023 noted that 33 percent of displaced between central and local authorities. respondents in the flood-affected areas reported not feeling represented by any government. Women, youth, ethnic minorities, and Libyans from Furthermore, a lack of representation of displaced poorer households are often under-represented in persons at the municipal level was confirmed in the decision-making processes.245 For instance, women qualitative findings during the assessment of post- voter turnout in local elections was lower than flood impacts. Activities that have been carried out men (28 percent vs. 39 percent for men) in 2017.246 following the floods, including emergency response, Nevertheless, municipalities were seen as the most are understood to have been undertaken under ad- legitimate local actors representing constituents hoc arrangements, though there is a lack of clarity (except in Ubari and Sebha, where tribal figures are on the status and process of disbursements. These predominant)247 , and demands to participate in local ad-hoc arrangements require scrutiny to ensure public meetings remains high. With the legitimacy that the funds are used for their intended purposes accorded by constituents, it will be important for and that transparency is signaled to all Libyans, recovery process to have strong citizen engagement, especially amid the ongoing political and institutional allowing local communities to express their fragmentation, and accumulating grievances of the preferences through participatory planning, budget affected populations. preparation, and social audits. The absence of an approved budget with contingency Recovery Needs and Strategy funding to provide for unforeseen events such as the flood poses significant challenges to the availability Unaddressed, the pre-flood PFM weaknesses will of predetermined funding options for disaster relief affect the effectiveness and fiscal transparency and recovery. Also, clear procedures are not in place needed during the recovery and reconstruction to ensure accessibility, adequacy, and timeliness process, as they would prevent the timely publication of relief and recovery funds. The chart of accounts of disaster response plans, budget allocations, currently in use is not adequate to effectively track contracting information, financial reports and disaster-related expenditure by event and nature statements, implementation reports, and results. (response, recovery, or reconstruction). In this regard, technical assistance and capacity building interventions are proposed as part of the Libya’s prolonged conflict and weak public recovery strategy to ensure a more transparent administration have adversely impacted and accountable reconstruction process. Recovery the relationship between the central public needs (Table 4) are calculated based on estimated administration and subnational governments. In needs of technical assistance, PFM diagnostics such light of the political situation over the past decade, as the Post-Disaster Public Financial Management many regions and municipalities have de facto (PD-PFM) review, capacity building, training, and organically decentralized to and provide select basic recovery from the damages and losses. 245 UNDP. 2017. Core Government Functions Assessment, Critical Emerging Issues and Priorities for Local Governance in Libya - p.33. 246 UNDP. 2017. Op. cit., p.35. 247 International Republican Institute. 2016. Libyan Municipal Council Research, p.19. Detailed Sector Assessments 175 Table 60: Reconstruction Costs Short-term early recovery* medium-term* (1-12 months) (1- 3 years) Total Cost Total Cost (in US$ (in LYD Needs Type US$ LYD US$ LYD million) million) 1. Technical assistance and capacity 7.3 34.8 11.8 56.5 19.0 91.3 building (see Table 60) 2. Removal of debris 0.5 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 3. Temporary rental of premises 0.5 2.4 1.0 4.8 1.5 7.2 during rehabilitation 4. Reconstruction of the 16 partially 1.0 4.8 1.0 4.8 2.0 9.6 damaged assets (damages + loss) x1.3 Total Needs 9.3 44.5 13.8 66.1 23.0 110.5 Source: Assessment team. As the interventions to address the reconstruction Various international partners have been needs focus on the quality of the processes, supporting Libyan institutions in their transition institutions, rules, and regulations that will be from conflict and instability towards laying the needed to ensure a transparent and accountable foundations for improved service delivery and good reconstruction process, the costing above does governance practices.248 The authorities can build not require significant physical reconstruction on the foundations of these activities to undertake requirements, particularly as only 16 (12 percent) governance related capacity building at both central of governance related assets were partially and local government level to support Libya’s damaged. Therefore, considering the existing PFM systems to be resilient such that financial governance situation on the ground, the objectives resources can be used to restore, redevelop, and of the proposed interventions in Table 5 below is to revitalize natural and socio-economic (including support Libyans in their efforts to plan, execute, and governance) environments so that they are better monitor overall reconstruction and the restoration able to withstand the impacts of current and future of public services in a transparent and accountable disasters in a transparent and accountable manner. manner. As noted in Figure 3, municipal councils do not receive a development budget; therefore, the Proposed measures for cross-sector recovery and institution(s) that will be assigned the responsibility service delivery that would allow Libyan institutions to undertake the overall high-value reconstruction to improve coordination, PFM and procurement efforts will need capacity building and tools outlined processes, stakeholder/beneficiary consultation, in Table 5. To ensure a unified local government and transparency, as well as BBB and establish system, these interventions, once implemented in resiliency include the following: the flood affected areas, can be scaled-up with more country-wide training and change management 1. Transparency in managing reconstruction processes to address the underlying challenges of funds. Establishing a unified crisis management the governance and PFM systems in Libya. The post- system will ensure effective reconstruction flood reconstruction efforts could therefore serve to response and increase the resilience to address address some of the main challenges in the current future disasters. A reinforced platform for PFM and intergovernmental coordination systems, improved overall recovery coordination may be which could later be scaled-up on a regional and needed that also employs existing mechanisms national level to address the more structural as an opportunity to strengthen country systems. weaknesses in the overall system. However, mitigation measures including third- 248 For example, the World Bank’s Governance Multi-Donor Trust Fund (MDTF) that was established in January 2016 and closed in June 2023. 176 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 61: Costs of Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction Short-term early recovery* medium-term* (1-12 months) (1- 3 years) Total Cost Total Cost (in US$ (in LYD Intervention/Activity US$ LYD US$ LYD million) million) 1. Geo-Enabling Monitoring and 0.2 1.0 0.8 3.8 1.0 4.8 Supervision (GEMS) tool. 2. Integrated strategic planning and PFM 0.3 1.2 0.8 3.6 1.0 4.8 diagnostics. 3. Transparent rules-based 0.1 0.5 0.4 1.9 0.5 2.4 intergovernmental fiscal transfers (IGFT). 4. Digitalization of financial management 1.0 4.8 2.0 9.6 3.0 14.4 and payments. 5. Improving transparency and decision- 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.4 making. 6. Sweep all public sector funds into the 0.1 0.5 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.0 treasury single account (TSA). 7. Strengthen the post-audit capability by 1.0 4.8 1.0 4.8 2.0 9.6 the Libya Audit Bureau (LAB). 8. Managing Reconstruction Funds. 0.5 2.4 0.5 2.4 1.0 4.8 9. Building Back Better (BBB) (20% of 4.0 19.2 6.0 28.8 10.0 48.1 total needs). Technical assistance and capacity 7.3 34.8 11.8 56.5 19.0 91.3 building Removal of debris 0.5 2.4 0.0 0.0 0.5 2.4 Temporary rental of premises during 0.5 2.4 1.0 4.8 1.5 7.2 rehabilitation Reconstruction of the 16 partially 1.0 4.8 1.0 4.8 2.0 9.6 damaged assets (damages + loss)x1.3 Sub-total 2.0 9.6 2.0 9.6 4.0 19.2 Grand Totals 9.3 44.5 13.8 66.1 23.0 110.5 Source: Assessment team. Detailed Sector Assessments 177 party monitoring (TPM), or Fiduciary Agent can start timely publication of Budget Execution be included and strengthened in the existing Reports (BER) to enhance transparency. This will governance arrangements to further increase contribute to increasing citizens’ and international transparency and accountability of management community’s trust in the government’s use of of public resources. The Geo-Enabling method public funds. In parallel to the reconstruction for Monitoring and Supervision (GEMS) can also process, the MoF can work closely with the be leveraged to gather digital data from the Central Bank of Libya to complete the survey of all field, which can then automatically feed into a government bank accounts to formulate a Cash centralized system pinpointing the exact location Management Policy and establish appropriate and cross-checking data to help eliminate any banking arrangements to operationalize the double dipping from various sources of funding. Treasury Single Account (TSA) with direct GEMS can also help to ensure that planned cash payment to suppliers. This will contribute to transfers reach the right beneficiaries who will the predictability of available funds for budget need to be pre-selected.249 To ensure a unified execution and trust in the government payment response, a shared portal can be developed system by suppliers. Technical assistance can to aggregate funding and publish results for be provided to either/both the MoF and MoLG to decision-makers and for communication to wider enhance the interim online portal that is being audiences. Where feasible and possible, in the used by Finance Controllers to upload manual short and medium term, the use of agreed and budget execution transactions. The enhancement common systems, processes, and procedures of the interim portal will improve budget controls, should be promoted for procurement, financial cash management, and timeliness/accuracy of management, management of environmental financial reporting with audit trails. Local radios and social risks, M&E, etc. across recovery and and social media platforms can also be used to reconstruction activities/investments. This disseminate key public finance datasets to open will require the development of a coherent and space for citizen engagement. These efforts well-coordinated multi-sector program for can help address public concerns regarding the disaster recovery across the affected sectors misuse of public funds during the reconstruction and geographic areas to ensure recovery process, ensure transparency and accountability, implementing agencies use similar or unified and help restore the trust in public institutions in mechanisms for the implementation of recovery. all of Libya. 2. Improving the publication of decisions and 3. Designing an accountable, rules-based reporting. Comprehensive, consistent, and PFM intergovernmental fiscal transfers (IGFT). information related to the reconstruction process Transfers to support subnational governments’ that is made accessible to the public, decision- expenditures, particularly to address recovery makers, and service-delivery managers will be and reconstruction needs in the flood-affected critical to ensure a transparent reconstruction areas, can be made in the form of unconditional process. This can be achieved through standard grants, in which their final use is determined budget classification, transparency of all by the subnational governments through their government revenue and expenditure including budgets, or through conditional (earmarked) intergovernmental transfers. This would require grants to subnational governments to implement publication of information on service delivery selected service delivery and expenditure performance, especially as they relate to responsibilities (for example, by function or reconstruction and recovery efforts, and readily program, typically in accordance with an accessible and user-friendly Budget Execution agreed-upon regulatory or policy standard). The Reports (BER) disaggregated by purpose, fund- overall level of grants (the vertical allocation) source and geographic location using the BC-CoA. will usually be determined by policy decisions The Ministry of Finance can also issue “Financial at the central government’s discretion or as Instruction” to bring into force the new business part of constitutional negotiation processes. processes and improved reporting format to Clear criteria for the distribution of grants 249 Ideally, the geographic segment of the Budget Classification and Chart of Accounts (BC-CoA) can use the same values assigned by the Statistics Bureau so that it will be easier to link statistical surveys for strategic allocation of resources and to also facilitate Public Expenditure Tracking Surveys (PETS). Unique codes are available for the 667 District/Muhalla. This will be useful to strategically align response funds to specific geographic needs based on the RDNA and downstream track the actual use of funds. 178 Detailed Sector Assessments among subnational governments—for example, inclusion needs of women and men, ensuring formulae for the horizontal allocation of funds— that emergency cash transfers are accessible, are needed to ensure allocative transparency and secure, and helpful to all beneficiaries. Exploring medium-term predictability of funds available for how to effectively leverage local mobile money planning and budgeting of expenditure programs solutions can also serve to enhance the reach of by subnational governments. This will be critical assistance. to ensure the funds are allocated in a transparent and accountable manner to the municipalities 6. Place all public sector funds into the treasury that are facing large recovery and reconstruction single account (TSA): Treasury may consider needs following the floods. emergency measures to sweep large sums of idle government funds into the consolidated fund or 4. Integrated strategic planning. There is a need for TSA to meet the liquidity challenges and ensure capacity building support to develop integrated transparency in the reconstruction process. strategic plans for recovery at the municipal level Should international assistance be provided to raise and channel the necessary financial and during the reconstruction process, ring-fencing non-financial resources to implement the plan. donor funds within TSA will be critical to ensure This will require strengthening the budgeting they are used for the emergency response. A process of municipalities, including but not ring-fenced arrangement, under which donor limited to re-engineering business processes funds are placed in a separate bank account but and accounting (e.g., segregation of duties, linked to and routed through the consolidated unified chart of account, customer relations fund, is an option to mitigate risks, as was done in management, revenue management, internal many operations in Africa during the Ebola crisis. controls system, etc.). Capacity building could be This would be a stop gap exercice. complemented with support for women leaders and vulnerable communities to encourage their 7. Strengthen the post-audit capability of the Libya participation in budgeting processes. Audit Bureau (LAB): Since many payments during the flood-response phase will likely go through 5. Digitalization of financial management and expedited channels, and bypass many established payments. Financial management processes at controls, it is important for Libya to plan post-audits the local government level are primarily manual. of these payments in partnership with internal, A fit-for-purpose cloud-based local government third-party independent agents, and external audit financial management information system will mechanisms. A Local Government Audit Manual be useful for the flood-affected cities to operate in compliance with International Standards of in a resilient manner. The system, once piloted in Supreme Audit Institutions (ISSAI) has already the affected cities, can be rolled out first to the been developed and covers financial audit, risk- affected 20 municipalities, then scaled up to the based approach, and practical examples used for 102 municipalities in Libya. Libya currently uses staff training. The LAB should prioritize audits bank accounts for disbursement of payments of expenditure and revenues of the emergency and can seize the opportunity to explore different transactions to address concerns related to forms of digital payments — G2G (government to the misuse of reconstruction funds and public government), G2P (government to person), and resources. Additionally, the MoF, MoLG, and MoP G2B (government to business) — through different would need to ensure that necessary audit trails channels, primarily focusing on mobile money to are established and disseminated appropriately. reach beneficiaries in remote areas. To implement The LAB can also take up performance audits of this, financial inclusion among women (which lags the government’s flood response to strengthen with respect to men) needs to be prioritized, as systems for future emergencies and increased well as inclusion of people living in more remote transparency. Additionally, these reports can areas. In addition, digital solutions can be applied provide valuable input into building resilience into to strengthen the efficiency and accountability the Libya PFM systems. Shifting the paradigm for of cash transfers, drawing on the experience of how audits are conducted by involving citizens in partners such as the WFP in leveraging mobile the audit process will enhance public trust in the financial service providers to ensure secure LAB as an independent accountability institution. direct payments to beneficiaries. This offers an The LAB can specifically use the standardized opportunity to also consider gender dimensions system for auditing disaster-related aid, ISSAI to ensure equitable and inclusive outcomes, by 5520, which addresses pre- and post-disaster for example, accounting for the diverse financial phases. Detailed Sector Assessments 179 8. Looking further ahead, it will be important to 2. Transparency, accountability, and rule of law: It is undertake a Post-Disaster Public Financial important that funding for recovery efforts is fair Management (PD-PFM) review: This will help and transparent. Libya assess the capability of its PFM systems to respond to natural disasters by measuring the 3. Multi-stakeholder engagement: Effective extent to which disaster-response considerations collaboration is needed between national are integrated into key PFM functions and and international actors, including from the activities. The PD-PFM review is designed to private sector, civil society, academia, and provide a quick and robust overview of the local government. Inclusiveness is critical in strengths and weaknesses of a PFM system the recovery processes to provide space and for disasters. It also identifies opportunities opportunities for broad stakeholder participation, for reforms to laws, regulations, policies, as an opaque process can contribute to heightened and systems that can strengthen a country’s instability and weakened trust in government capacity to manage disaster-related risks and institutions. Gender-balanced local participation sustain PFM functions after a disaster through and ownership are particularly important for the recommendations on ways to strengthen recovery strategy to build a new social contract identified vulnerable PFM areas. A key benefit of based on participation, inclusiveness, and the review is that it will provide risk mitigation accountability. measures to ensure that the flood response funds are used for intended purposes in a transparent 4. Result-focused: The recovery process should and accountable manner. be measured against established targets/ performance indicators and timelines. Moreover, Linkages with Cross-Cutting it should be monitored within a transparent M&E system and process, including consultation with themes the most affected communities and stakeholders. Libya’s vulnerability to conflict and fragility, and 5. Strategic communication: To promote awareness its macroeconomic instability, is compounded by of rights and entitlements during the recovery challenges related to climate change – that further and reconstruction process, well-designed intensify and widen fragility-related issues, and communication campaigns can be a strategic tool add to the socioeconomic vulnerability of Libyans, to educate, warn, inform, and empower people to including the most marginalized communities. take practical steps to minimize the impact of the Political and institutional weaknesses remain disaster. challenging, including as they relate to recovery and reconstruction efforts. To this end it will be critical 6. Climate resilience: in the longer term, and in for the recovery process to agree on the roles and order to mitigate the effects of climate change responsibilities expected to be performed by local and ensure a gradual transition towards more governments and funders. To date, the eastern-based environmentally conscious planning, relying on House of Representative (HoR) has allocated LYD 10 green public procurement (GPP) can help create billion (US$ 1.9 billion) to an emergency committee an enabling environment for green investments, for the response to the catastrophic floods, though ensuring that policies and regulations are there is a lack of clarity on the status and process of supportive of Libya’s green recovery. By using disbursements. Given the pre-existing governance their purchasing power to choose goods/works/ challenges, key conflict-sensitive principles for services with a reduced environmental impact, sustainable reconstruction that can support a governments can amplify the benefits of the transparent, inclusive, green, and accountable green transition in high-impact sectors such as post-disaster recovery and reconstruction process energy-using products, construction, and so on. include the following: 1. Leadership and coordination: Continuous political Limitations leadership from the highest level of government The assessment of fiscal damage is limited by will be essential, together with strong operational lack of in-year budget execution reports for support for delivering results. This overarching local governments, and annual audited financial function may be played directly by the central statements. authorities or delegated to a permanent or ad hoc national recovery body, or a combination of both. 180 Detailed Sector Assessments ENVIRONMENT Natural Resources and Mediterranean region, known as “Maquis vegetation,” in the scientific literature. Ecosystem Services Protected Areas With 95 percent of its terrain comprising desert, Libya primarily consists of barren, flat to undulating In the flood-affected area, there is one terrestrial plains. Coupled with the Mediterranean climate, national park – Al Kouf, and one marine protected this geographic composition makes large parts area - Ain Al-Ghazalah. of the country vulnerable to floods, sandstorms, dust storms, and desertification. Climate change • Al Kouf National Park (100,000 ha), situated 180 poses a significant threat to Libya’s economic km north-east of Benghazi, west to the town of development and sustainability. Climate variability Al Bayda, includes a 20 km coastal stretch. The is likely to increase the impacts of natural hazards coastal section of the park consists of sandy on agriculture production and the sustained delivery beaches interspersed with rock outcrops and of ecosystem services. Projected increases in coastal cliffs. Behind the beach is a disjunction temperatures, increased frequency and intensity of band of sand-dunes which are fringed on the extreme weather conditions, declining precipitation, landward side by shallow, seasonal brackish and rising sea levels threaten the sustainability lagoons. The rest of the area is a mountain forest. of water supplies and pose an existential risk to Recognized as an Important Birds Area (IBA) in coastal population centers, where approximately 70 Libya, it is also considered a vital biodiversity percent of the population resides. Climate change hotspot in the South Mediterranean. is compounding water scarcity – thereby reducing water availability for agricultural and domestic • Ain Elshakika Wetland, a Ramsar-protected consumption. This in turn feeds into Libya’s pre- wetland within Al Kouf National Park, covers an existing fragility and conflict contexts, which are area of 50 ha. The site consists of a hypersaline particularly vulnerable to the effects of compound coastal sebkha with limestone rock formations to risks because of a relative lack of capacity to cope the south. The site, featuring hypersaline coastal with shocks caused by conflict, climate, and the sebkha, limestone rock formations, dunes, and mutually reinforcing challenges of both. mudflats with extensive shrubs from west to east, is a crucial wetland for migratory and resident Agricultural Land Use, Including Livestock waterbirds. Vegetation on the inland side consists of a fringe of Tamarix, mixed with freshwater- The area in which the floods occurred is characterized loving plants such as Juncus. Wetland, migratory by a relative abundance of rainfall and soil fertility, and resident waterbirds include redshanks, making it an area intensively used for agricultural curlews, dunlins and slender-billed gulls. activities. These activities include irrigated and rainfed crops, as well as livestock and extensive • Ain Elzarga Wetland, another Ramsar-site, was herding. established in 2000 and covers an area of 33 ha. It is a small natural depression with at least one Forests and Woodlands natural connection to the sea, wet all year round but with increasing water levels and salinity during The flood-affected area is the only area in Libya with summer. The depression has mudflats and salt natural forests, Al-Jabal al-Akhdar, or the Green marshes and is surrounded by dunes from east Mountain, stretches between Benghazi and Derna to west and rocky hills to the south and east. The for about 350 kilometers along the Mediterranean site is one of the most important wetlands in the coast and is known for its plant diversity. It hosts 70 Al Kouf National Park for migratory waterbirds. percent of Libya’s flora and several archaeological Birdwatching and ecotourism potential is sites. The vegetation cover of the Al-Jabal al- considerable but undeveloped. Unsustainable Akhdar consist of a diverse combination of conifer hunting and destruction of vegetation, especially and broad-leaved endemic trees and shrubs of the during summer, are considered threats. Detailed Sector Assessments 181 • Ain Al-Ghazalah (Al-Bomba Gulf) (29,278 ha) is a fine sand and complemented by urban features, marine protected area located approximately 130 including coastal roads. km east of Derna and 60 km west of Tobruk. The area, characterized by a lagoon, covers 180 ha Biodiversity and three islands distributed in the gulf. Sparse salt marsh vegetation covers the shores and there The affected coastline serves as critical habitat for is ample fishing activity. Since the establishment significant biodiversity, providing essential areas of the protected area there is no management or for feeding and nesting for turtles, seabirds, and administration to control the area to implement fish. Moreover, this region is renowned for hosting conservation processes. regionally important seagrass beds, which remain in near-pristine condition. Wadi beds were covered in Coastal Zone alluvial soils and natural vegetation, but these were washed away in the flood. The flood-impacted coastal zone (Cyrenaica) forms a 210  km long and 50 km wide crest Fisheries Sector between Benghazi and Derna of the 2000 km long coastal zone of Libya. This region faces escalating Despite abundant resources, the fishing sector challenges due to heightened coastal erosion, a is not fully exploited in Libya. The exploitation of consequence of rising sea levels and increasingly substantial tuna and sardine supplies is hindered severe winter storms—factors exacerbated by by the limited availability of trawlers, ports, and climate change. These phenomena compound processing facilities. the threats and damages experienced along the coastline and threaten local wildlife. The fishing fleet primarily consists of artisanal vessels (92.5 percent), the remainder of the fleet Current data indicates that 8–14 percent of coastal includes 135 lampara vessels and 15 tuna vessels, sites in Al Jabal Al Akhdar Libya have been affected including purse seines and long liners. The 1 866 by the erosion of the seashore. Predictive modeling artisanal vessels land their catches in 135 landing suggests a concerning trajectory, with estimates places, with 76 being permanent and the remainder projecting an increase to 25–26 percent affected by operating on a seasonal basis. Within the flood- 2050, further escalating to 32–33 percent by 2100. affected area, one major port (Benghazi) and multiple The prevalence of illegal sand mining significantly landing sites cater for 415 (22 percent) artisanal amplifies the pace and severity of coastal erosion. fishing vessels (including Mamdo and Soussa). Beaches, crucial components of the coastal ecosystem, are in critical condition due to high rate of Benghazi stands as a pivotal commercial harbor, sand removal. This not only detrimentally affects the boasting a diverse array of industries that contribute immediate environment but also poses a threat to significantly to the region’s economic vitality. Among archaeology, resulting in the erosion of up to 15,680 its key features are oil refineries, food and salt metric tons of soil during the winter storm season. processing facilities, cement production plants, breweries, tanneries, and a bustling fishing industry. The impact of industrial waste and seawater pollution Noteworthy is the presence of one of the world’s on archaeology remains inadequately understood. largest water desalinization plants, a critical asset Studies on the quality of seawater in Libya are scarce, that provides fresh water to a majority of Libya’s leaving a critical knowledge gap regarding potential urban centers. Despite facing challenges, including implications for archaeological sites. Addressing infrastructure damage caused by flooding, the port these gaps is essential for comprehensive coastal continues to function. Its strategic location and robust zone management, particularly in the face of connections to major cities via well-established road ongoing environmental challenges and the need for networks ensure its continued role as a vital hub for sustainable practices. trade and economic activities in the region. The Wadi Derna is a river valley which leads down Waste Management from the Jebel Akhdar mountains to the city of Derna. It is an intermittent Wadi bed for much of its length In Libya, solid waste management falls under the and contains water only when heavy rain occurs. It purview of both national and local public bodies, is 75 km long with a  drainage basin of 575 km2. namely the Ministry of Local Government which Derna’s coastal region is distinguished by some of supervises the General Services Company, but also the finest beaches in the country, characterized by the Municipality which has increasing authority 182 Detailed Sector Assessments over waste management. The lack of clarity over regulation and quality, soil retention, habitat services the supervision and financing of the many waste and carbon sequestration. management companies presents a considerable challenge. The lack of infrastructure to properly Coastal zone degradation. The predominant type collect, treat and dispose of waste is an additional of damage that has been recorded can be grouped challenge, particularly in urban areas lacking most into the following categories: coastal erosion/water aspects of adequate waste management.250 action/recession of water, wind/water action, natural vegetation, land/rockslide, clearance/construction, In recent years, the Libyan Government has focused reuse/structural alteration, agricultural crops/ increasing attention on addressing the problem of ploughing and vandalism in the form of looting, solid waste management. Consequently, investment rubbish dumping, graffiti painting, or small fires. in technologies for waste collection and incineration of solid waste has become a priority. Within the Sea level rise. Seawater intrusion in coastal flood-affected area, there are 20 official solid waste areas due to rising sea levels has resulted in high dumpsites — one for each municipality—alongside concentrations of salts in irrigation waters, adversely several illegal dumpsites.251 Notably, there are affecting soil productivity.  With climate change, currently no dedicated sites for the management these dynamics will continue and worsen. of liquid and hazardous waste, construction & demolition (C & D) waste, and recycling. Waste Management. About 67 percent of the total waste generated is disposed of in open dumps The collection and separate treatment of solid controlled by local authorities in cities through very waste is still neglected, as is city cleaning. As Libya rudimentary operational processes, by dredging and undergoes rapid industrialization and urbanization, covering them with a layer of sand or construction the volume of solid waste generated has surged. residues as an attempt to prevent them from being Collection is at approximately 40 percent, with urban scattered by the wind. Even the healthcare waste is areas achieving a collection rate of approximately dumped in the same areas and treated by the same 62 percent, while rural areas achieve less than 17 way of MSW. Each municipality has a landfill for all percent. This underscores the pressing need for forms of waste, including industrial, municipal, solid, comprehensive waste management strategies and and other hazardous wastes. Organic and inorganic resource management to align with the increasing waste is also accumulating in informal landfills and demands posed by urban development and industrial dump sites in various areas around the country, expansion. especially in rural areas.   Threats to Natural Capital Combined with the increasing amounts of solid waste there are problems associated with leachate Intensive agricultural use and population increase from improperly constructed and managed have degraded many ecosystem services, including A study from 2009 suggests that 95 landfills.  habitats. Other drivers of degradation include percent of the MSW generated in Libya is directly overgrazing, the uncontrolled removal of shrubs disposed of on land in an unsatisfactory manner, and other woody plants, infrastructure development negatively impacting the environment, leading to (without considering nature-based solutions), soil and water contamination, and the destruction disposal of solid and liquid wastes, mining, and the of habitats, with negative impacts on people’s health overall mismanagement of natural resources. and well-being, and loss of ecosystem services. There have been several significant obstacles facing Deforestation and forest degradation have seen cities in dealing with this issue, including limited an alarming loss of more than 20,000 hectares of documentation regarding generation, transport, forests between 2005 and 2019. Notably, the rate handling, management, and disposal of waste.  The of loss accelerated after 2011, as more people were private sector’s role in waste management and emboldened by the country’s political instability recycling remains low, and the waste management to embark on unplanned construction and clear- sector is largely informal or ad hoc. The Ministry of cutting. The loss of forest and tree cover has dire Local Government (MoLG) has developed a national consequences for ecosystem services such as water 250 Alkishriwi, 2021. 251 Logistics Cluster. Libya - 3.7 Libya Waste Management and Recycling Infrastructure Assessment. https://dlca.logcluster.org/ libya-37-libya-waste-management-and-recycling-infrastructure-assessment. (Downloaded November 10, 2023). Detailed Sector Assessments 183 roadmap and results framework for solid waste • Most of the penalties were simple and limited management as one of its key priorities. to traditional penalties which do not include imprisonment, daily fines or fines for probation Policies and Regulatory Frameworks or suspension of factories and construction. Laws, and legislation pertaining to the environment, Regarding solid waste management, regulations including biodiversity conservation and natural were mostly enacted post-2011, assigning resource protection, include: responsibility to local governments throughout the country. MoLG is responsible for solid waste • Law No. (33) of 1970 on the protection of agricultural management throughout the country, whereas land as amended by Law No. (4) of 1973 local municipal authorities have little or no role in • Law No. (5) of 1982 on the protection of forests managing this service.   and pastures • Law No. (7) of 1982 on environmental protection • Law No. (22) of 1989 on industrial regulation Assessment of Disaster • Law No. (15) of 1992 on the protection of Effects: Damage and Loss agricultural land and its addition to Law No. 6 of Estimates252 1996 amending the provisions of the Agricultural Land Protection Act As in many disasters, the early action and attention • Law No. (15) of 2003 on the protection and of the government and the international community improvement of the environment focused on the human impact and destruction of critical infrastructure, while environmental impacts Institutions and Environmental Governance have received so far insufficient attention. In Libya, environmental governance and management has been The Ministry of Environment (MoE) is responsible for neglected for years, with the effect that the resilience implementing government policies and its vision for of natural systems and infrastructure has slowly the environment. MoE provides a set of regulations degraded, amplifying the impacts of the 2023 floods. and acts that support environmental protection and protect environmental heritage from violations. The environmental sector analysis focuses on losses, damages and restoration needs for (i) impacted MoLG is responsible for executing government ecosystems such as coastal areas, forests and policies and vision at local levels, improving woodlands, wetlands, and agricultural land (focus on municipalities’ performance, and enhancing public topsoil loss); (ii) fisheries; and (iii) soil contamination services through enacting adequate and practical due to point and non-point pollution from various regulations. sources. Needs are expressed in terms of short (1 year), medium (1–3 years) and long-term (4–10+ years) Today Libyan state institutions, weakened by conflict activities to be implemented to restore these systems, and continued insecurity, have struggled to protect but also integrate climate change -related concerns the environment. Weakened state regulatory bodies in order to BBB. Financial needs are presented as have relegated environmental protection to the actually assessed needs to restore damages and background, e.g., the green belt along the coast has losses, but since the damage is estimated to be very been the target of many violations in recent years, high, financial needs for the short and medium term including deforestation and illegal buildings, despite (years 1–3) and the longer term (years 4–10+) are efforts by the Agricultural Police. proposed. The costs of damages and losses for the environment sector seem very high, especially those Key weaknesses include: associated with the potential contamination with • Uneven policing of laws passed by different hazardous materials of soil in the six watersheds, parties dealing with vegetation. and the damaged coastal zone, damaged wetlands, • Limited equipment to assess damage, and to and potentially impacted agricultural lands (i.e., soil penalize and deter offenders. erosion and loss). For this reason, short, medium, and long-term goals offer a more manageable approach 252 Damage may be classified as Partially Damaged if less than 40% of the asset is damaged, structure is still sound and repair cost would be less than 40% of the total asset value. Damage may be classified as Completely Destroyed if more than 40% of the asset has been damaged or if the replacement cost of the damages would be more than 40% of the total value of the asset. 184 Detailed Sector Assessments Figure 47: Fishing Routes Possibly Impacted by Suspended Matter Discharging into the Sea Source: ICube-SERTIT, 2023. to recovery of the environment. These numbers, The fisheries sector experienced damages and which are based on an exhaustive analysis of available losses to equipment (12.5 percent of the landing data obtained for the environment sector, should also sites and 80 percent of the artisanal fishing vessels serve as an opportunity to raise awareness in Libya were destroyed, equivalent to US$ 181,000), income on the importance of nature for the economy, society, (US$ 393,088 per month for fishermen – the number and a healthy environment. is actually higher since people involved in the fish value addition chain are negatively impacted as well), In terms of ecosystems and the services they and affected fish stock (1,735 fishing routes were provide, 3.64 percent of forests and woodlands, affected) due to the discharge of debris, sediments 62.89 percent of wetlands, 36.92 percent of coastal and potentially hazardous materials likely impacting ecosystems and 4.59 percent of agro-ecosystems the habitats of important biodiversity. (topsoil loss) were damaged, with damage costs of US$ 59.13 million (LYD 284.13 million). Apart from the income losses for the fishermen discussed above, the losses of ecosystem services 1,504.32 ha in six watersheds were assessed for forests, wetlands and coastal ecosystems were as potentially damaged by chemical spills (incl. assessed. The damages have caused US$ 21.06 petroleum products, agricultural chemicals), million per month in lost ecosystem services, of untreated sewage water discharge, leakage from which most are associated with coastal ecosystems. solid waste management sites (formal and informal), and disaster waste. Other potential contaminant In the absence of information on how formal solid sources are residential properties, industrial areas, waste sites were affected by the floods, no losses medical facilities, and fuel tanks in vehicles and were estimated. However, if sites are unusable, storage facilities. If the area assessments can be monthly losses to manage a solid waste site would verified, then remediation measures (including amount to US$ 50,000 per site. removal, bioremediation, soil washing and stabilization, chemical remediation) will need to be implemented at a cost of US$ 97.78 million. Detailed Sector Assessments 185 Table 62: Environmental Damages and Losses Partially Completely Total Cost Total Cost Asset Type Baseline Damaged Destroyed (in US$ million) (in LYD million) DAMAGE Watersheds (potentially - 1,504.32 - 97.78 469.88 contaminated soil - ha) Forests and woodlands (area - ha) 21,520.19 319.87 463.07 1.4 6.79 Forests and woodlands (biomass 1,197,795.15 94,287.95 14,402.20 - - - tons) Wetlands (area - ha) 1783.47 1,119.50 2.20 3.67 17.63 Wetlands (biomass - tons) 116,370.93 65,159.16 47.35 - - Ramsar Sites (2)(area - ha) 83 31.09 1.32 - - Coastal Zone (area ha) 22,411 8,257.00 17 29.88 143.58 Coastal Waters (Suspended 0 953,958.00 - - - matter discharged - ha) Topsoil (area - ha) 353,256.25 165.05 16,043.98 24.17 116.12 Solid waste management sites 20 - - - - (i.e. open dump sites) Ports and landing docks (number) 40 0 5 0.015 0.07 Artisanal fishing vessels (number) 415 0 332 0.17 0.80 Fishing ship routes (number) 1,629 - - Total Damage 157.09 754.88 Unit Cost Total Costs Total Monthly Total Monthly per month # of (Unit Cost x # of Benefits Loss Benefits Loss Category (in US$) Months Months) (in US$) (in US$ million) (in LYD million) LOSSES Loss of forest ecosystem services 135.00 12 1,620.00 0.08 0.38 (per ha) Loss of wetland ecosystem services 1,183.00 12 14,196.00 0.53 2.56 (per ha) Loss of coastal ecosystem services 6,158.00 12 73,896.00 20.44 98.14 (per ha) Managing solid waste management 50,000.00 12 600,000 - - sites (per site) Loss of revenue from artisanal 296.00 12 3,552.00 0.39 1.89 fisheries (US$ income per fisherman) Total Losses 21.45 102.96 Source: Assessment team. 186 Detailed Sector Assessments Damage to watersheds negatively impacts important agricultural areas (i.e., topsoil loss) impacted services they provide. While some damages and by the storm and resulting floods. It is losses were assessed for specific ecosystems assumed that the area does not overlap with (forests, wetlands, coastal, agroecosystems/soil), the contaminated watershed area mentioned other damages and losses have not been detailed above. due to lack of available data. Hence, damage to the ii. The costs of damages to ecosystems and six watersheds needs to be assessed on the ground losses of services were calculated based on (i.e., Environmental Impact Assessment) to confirm the costs for restoring these ecosystems. the damage and loss data. Available literature provides a wide range of restoration costs for same ecosystem types Table 56 presents baseline data, damage (total and – these costs vary due to the geographic partial), and loss data for environmental assets. location of the ecosystems, and their level of complexity (e.g., species composition, Assumptions and Sources of Information protection status, service provisions, level For the assessment of the damages and losses for of destruction). In the absence of verified environmental assets, the following assumptions ground-data, the lowest available cost data were made, and sources of information used: for restoration was applied. iii. It is assumed that by restoring an ecosystem, For watersheds: not only is the physical asset restored, but also the ecosystem’s ability to provide services • Assumptions253: such as water regulation and purification, » To delineate the potentially impacted area, the habitat services, carbon sequestration etc. size of the flooded area in each watershed was Hence, the needs calculation reflects only measured, assuming that most damage would the assessed damage values. be in these areas. iv. Restoring an ecosystem is a long-term » The damage was calculated on the assumption proposition which can take 10+ years. that soils/surfaces were potentially impacted Hence, the needs data are sequenced to to 0.5 m deep and that 1 m3 would hold about reflect a short/medium term need to initiate 1.3 tons of soil. the restoration process (1–3 years) and complete the process over a longer period For ecosystem services: (4–10+ years). The restoration process requires management capacities, e.g., for • Assumptions 254: the protection of new seedlings, pest and i. Ipsos provided geo-referenced data to disease control, species reintroduction, calculate the area of forests/woodlands, irrigation, or erosion control measures. wetlands, coastal ecosystems, and 253 The assumptions regarding watersheds in this section are based on information from various sources: 1. Ipsos used geo-referenced data to estimate the flooded area potentially affected by contamination, employing a global digital elevation model (DEM) with a spatial resolution of 12m. 2. The assessment of actual damage linked to soil contamination relied on consultation with various web-based sources. The costs associated with remediation were determined by considering country-specific circumstances such as pricing and the applicable technology. The proposed average remediation cost of USD100 per ton of soil reflects a consensus reached by the author and peer reviewers, deemed reasonable for the context of the study. 254 The assumptions pertaining to ecosystem services in this section are informed by the following sources: 1. Ipsos utilized geo-referenced data to assess the damaged ecosystem area, employing a global digital elevation model (DEM) with a spatial resolution of 12m. 2. Bayraktarov, E. et al. (2020) contributed insights into the priorities and motivations of marine coastal restoration research, which can be accessed at https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fmars.2020.00484/full. 3. Additional information on the cost and feasibility of marine coastal restoration was derived from Bayraktarov, E. et al. (2016), published in Ecological Applications, 26(4), 2016, pp. 1055–1074. 4. Values for ecosystem services were obtained from Kumar, P. and Wood, M. (2010), with a focus on the valuation of regulating services of ecosystems in the United Kingdom. The relevant source can be found at https://www.ers.usda. gov/amber-waves/2015/may/wetlands-benefits-and-costs-vary-with-location/#:~:text=The%20study%20found%20that%20 the,in%20major%20corn%2Dproducing%20areas. 5. Additional insights into the causes and effects of soil erosion, as well as the associated costs and prevention methods, were gathered from https://www.wri.org/insights/causes-and-effects-soil-erosion-and-how-prevent-it#:~:text=The%20 cost%20of%20erosion%20prevention,could%20reach%20%2415%2C221%20per%20hectare and https://e360.yale.edu/ features/ecosystem_services_whats_wrong_with_putting_a_price_on_nature. Detailed Sector Assessments 187 For the fisheries sector area is affected. This crisis significantly jeopardizes the livelihoods of the local population, comprising • Assumptions255: 90,000, and has a direct impact on crucial sectors » The assessment assumed a cost of US$ 3000 to such as fisheries and local recreational activities. build a simple landing dock for artisanal fishing This in turn risks playing a multiplying role in boats and US$ 500 to purchase a boat. exacerbating the fragile conditions that affect waves » The study used the amount of US$ 296 for a of displaced and vulnerable populations. monthly salary for fishermen. Linking the Effects to the Recovery Needs and Strategy Human Impact The overall costs to address the damage to the environment stemming from this disaster are Damages to forests and woodlands, fertile topsoil, estimated at US$ 243.80 million (LYD1.17 billion). wetlands, and coastal areas from the floods will Some measures to restore and rehabilitate the mainly impact the poor, given their reliance on natural environment and BBB will need a long-term resources for their livelihoods and food security. approach (up to 10 years), e.g., coastal zone Increased pressure on natural resources—illegal restoration, wetland restoration, soil remediation deforestation and forest degradation, agricultural and re- and afforestation. Hence, a more realistic activities, sand mining, protected areas without approach to estimating the costs of measures to be enforcement —will likely substantially increase as implemented over a three-year period (Table 2) is affected (i.e., displaced) people will exploit available suggested, proposing the provision of 40 percent of resources for their subsistence. Exposure to the actual needs for restoring ecosystems and their contamination risks and overflowing or unmanaged services (LYD 299.72 million; US$ 62.37 million). The industrial effluents from solid waste management remaining 60 percent (LYD 183.08 million; US$ 37.89 sites have mainly occurred in and around industrial million) would need to be provided after year three and urban areas, where poor people typically for the full recovery and protection of the restored congregate. ecosystems. The full recovery needs for restoring the fisheries sector were applied for the same Damaged infrastructure to protect people from period (LYD 0.86 million; US$ 0.18 million). To avoid floods, and the trend of more frequent disastrous double counting, investments in climate-resilient events due to climate change, will likely increase infrastructure, such as roads, railways, irrigation the vulnerability of downstream communities, works, and power lines, to withstand shocks from especially in Wadi Derna. The floods’ impairment extreme climate impacts are assumed to have been of the collection of large quantities of solid waste separately captured in the respective sectors, as they and the many carcasses of domestic animals have are not easily apportioned. They are therefore not increased the risks of disease outbreaks. The loss included under the recovery needs identified here. of valuable land from landslides and debris flows Environmental recovery actions primarily include will impact the livelihoods of local communities rehabilitation of degraded lands (incl. those that dependent on agricultural land use. Finally, the lost topsoil), reforestation, coastal zone restoration reconstruction will generate a significant demand for (especially in Derna), revegetation of Wadi Derna, construction materials, which implies an increase in removal of debris flows in sensitive areas, building quarrying activities that will further deplete natural of nature-based structures to manage hill torrents resources, including sand from the coastal zone, and and avoid landslides, soil conservation measures to potentially increase the risk of landslides, thereby reduce erosion, and reconstruction of protected area further exacerbating underlying vulnerabilities. and environmental administration infrastructure. These measures will also help to protect critical The devastation of the coastal region, coupled infrastructure from environmental degradation (e.g., with the contamination stemming from debris and reduced sedimentation in the two dams in Wadi chemical spills, poses a severe threat, particularly Derna, solid waste management sites) and extreme in Derna, where approximately 80 percent of the weather events. 255 The assumptions related to the fisheries sector in this section are based on information from the following sources: 1. Filogh A.M., 2019. “Libya Fishing Industry.” Menba Su Ürünleri Dergisi, 5(1), 16-26. 2. FAO, 2005. “Libya Fisheries Profile.” 3. FAO, 2006. “Fisheries Development Project (TCP/LIB/2902 (I) (NEPAD Ref. 06/46 E)).” 188 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 63: Environmental Restoration Costs Total Cost (in US$ million) - Total Cost (in LYD million) - Needs Type including costs for BBB, etc. including costs for BBB, etc. Need type 1: Reforestation and restoration of 1.41 6.79 degraded forested lands Needs type 2: Restoration of topsoil, erosion control 24.17 116.12 Needs type 3: Restoration of coastal zone 29.88 143.58 Needs type 4: Restoration of wetlands 3.67 17.63 Needs type 5: Soil Remediation and waste 97.78 469.89 management Needs type 6: Strengthening of environmental 10 48.06 governance Needs type 7: Restoration of fisheries sector 0.18 0.86 Total Needs 243.80 1,171.58 Source: Assessment team. The cleanup of natural drainage systems and urban A much stronger focus is needed on governance in surface drains blocked with solid waste and silt the three interlinked sectors of environment-energy- is needed in high-risk areas vulnerable to urban solid waste management. Key institutions, including flooding to reduce the risk of toxic industrial effluent municipalities, need to gain capacity to formulate overflow reoccurring during extreme weather events. strategies, legislation and policies, while supported The reuse of debris from damaged homes and roads by adequate technical assistance. A stronger should be promoted as best practice, and where engagement with the private sector and civil society possible, supported with supplies of sledgehammers, organizations is needed, as financing needs cannot shovels and wheelbarrows. Demonstrations of be covered only by the public sector. debris recycling technologies should be carried out to strengthen debris management capacities. The Specific, prioritized, and sequenced interventions. reuse of recycled aggregate in making new building blocks and road foundations will also reduce the use Recovery interventions are grouped into three main of natural resources and address climate-related components: impacts of reconstruction. 1. Ecosystem-based restoration and adaptation Watersheds, especially soils impacted by chemical in vulnerable landscapes and watersheds: spills (incl. petroleum products, agricultural This encompasses three area of interventions: chemicals), untreated sewage water discharge, (i) restoring damaged forests (urban and rural), leakage from solid waste management sites (formal rangelands, wetlands, and protected areas, and informal), disaster waste and other potential including infrastructure; (ii) climate-smart contaminant sources would need to be remediated coastal zone restoration (mainly Derna), including using removal, bioremediation, soil washing and measures to address sea-level rise; and (iii) stabilization, and chemical remediation. In the nature-based solutions for flood management absence of ground data, it is suggested to start with and water retention to supplement “grey” identifying and ranking hotspots of soil contamination infrastructure, and non-structural measures and proposed remediation measures. This would proposed by other sectors. Actions would include help to prioritize actions and allocate resources. undertaking small-scale green civil works (e.g., gabion walls, flood torrent diversions, repair of In facing this disaster and being prepared for future the two dams in Wadi Derna) to slow stormwater events, the Libyan institutions need to develop their and improve irrigation features for agricultural capacity at both organizational and expertise levels. production. Detailed Sector Assessments 189 Table 64: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Environmental Restoration Short-term early recovery* Medium-term* Total Cost Long-Term Needs (1–12 months) (1–3 years) (3 years) (4–10 + years) US$ LYD US$ LYD US$ LYD Intervention/Activity US$ million LYD Million Million million million million million million Ecosystem-based 6.37 30.61 14.86 71.41 21.23 102.02 37.89 182.08 restoration and adaptation in vulnerable landscapes and watersheds Pollution management 11.73 56.38 27.38 131.56 39.11 135.39 650.62 187.94 Strengthening of 2.00 9.61 8.00 38.44 10.00 48.06 environmental governance Investments in Fisheries 0.05 0.26 0.13 0.61 0.18 0.86 Sector Total Needs 20.16 96.86 50.36 242.02 70.52 338.88 173.28 832.70 * To be agreed with the Government. Source: Assessment team. 2. Pollution management, including soil landing docks need to be repaired or newly built. remediation and addressing solid and A detailed impact assessment of the discharge of wastewater management. There is an immediate debris, and hazardous materials on fish stocks need to identify hotspots of contaminated soils and other marine species needs to be conducted and remediation measures. Thereafter, the to understand the full impact of the disaster management of contaminated sites, including on the fisheries sector and coastal and marine pollution containment and remediation measures habitats, incl. sea turtles and sea grass. need to be implemented. There is an immediate need to remove debris, including sediment and waste from blocked drainage channels and Linkages with Cross-Cutting flooded areas and infrastructure. Improved themes256 collection and management systems for solid waste and debris are required. Dedicated Libya’s environmental sector has faced significant facilities are needed for hazardous waste such challenges, especially since the 2011 Revolution. as chemical products, medical waste, and Environmental governance has been inadequate due agricultural products such as pesticides and to limited institutional and human capacities, lack of fungicides. enforcement of environmental laws and regulations, and the country’s vulnerability to conflict and 3. Strengthening of environmental governance: fragility . Countries like Libya, with persisting fragile Libya’s capacity to manage environmental and conflict-affected conditions have immediate challenges is limited. Recovery interventions priorities, but the environment is not one of them. need to include strengthening environmental The flood disaster further aggravates the situation and climate change institutional capacities to as the government and the international community respond to the floods, including through more have primarily focused on the human impact, and detailed environmental assessments; oversight the environmental consequences of this disaster and enforcement of environmental regulations – which can play a reinforcing role in exacerbating (EIAs) of the reconstruction; and improved data compound risk factors – have received insufficient collection and monitoring systems. attention. 4. Investments in Fisheries Sector: Fishermen Libya’s ecosystems are fragile and highly vulnerable need to be helped to buy new vessels, and to the impacts of climate change. In the absence of 256 Cross-cutting themes include: FCV, Climate Change, Gender, Governance, and Social Inclusion. 190 Detailed Sector Assessments sustainable use or management plans for natural The convergence of climate-related disasters, resources, extension services to rural communities protracted crisis, and economic instability in Libya and enforcement of laws associated with protecting creates a lethal cocktail that leaves people and the environment from climate change impacts will communities grappling with minimal preparedness, further threaten these ecosystems. inadequate infrastructure, and limited access to essential services. This triple burden of challenges Since mainly rural communities depend on the makes it extraordinarily difficult for them to cope and use of natural resources for their livelihoods, recover. Hence, the integration of climate-related the further degradation of the natural resource consideration in the restoration and rehabilitation base and ecosystem services will affect natural efforts related to the environment is paramount. resource dependent people, especially women. In addition, the current waste disposal methods are negatively impacting the environment and delivery Limitations of ecosystem services, leading to soil and water Key limitations on data assessment and verification contamination and the destruction of habitats with were largely due to time and access constraints, negative impacts on vulnerable people. accentuated by the geographic spread of the impact The BBB approach promoted in this report and flood conditions, which restricted the level and recommends not only upgrading or building new scope of data collection. This included: infrastructure (e.g., waste disposal sites) but also integrating climate change considerations in • Limited remote-sensing data to assess restoration and rehabilitation efforts. Since Libya is environmental damages. already grappling with the impacts of more than a • Inability to ground-truth findings from remote- decade of conflict, it has been pushed to the brink sensing analysis. by the intensifying consequences of climate change. • Difficulties in assessing chemical and other It is expected that climate change will further contaminant spills, especially where they were amplify extreme weather events, making them more washed off during the flood. frequent, prolonged, and severe, thus exacerbating • Challenges assessing losses for environmental the plight of vulnerable populations. services of all potentially impacted ecosystems (i.e., value of ecosystem services). Detailed Sector Assessments 191 DISASTER AND CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT Disaster and Climate Risk Libya, causing at least 300 deaths and damage of US$ 5 million.260 Other major flood events have profile reportedly struck the country in 1995 (city of Al- Khums, with damages totaling US$ 42.2 million), in Libya is exposed to a multitude of natural hazards, 2013 (Tripoli, Az Zawia provinces), and 2019 (Ghat including floods, droughts, wildfires, tsunamis, municipality, affecting 20,000 people).261 Wadi Derna earthquakes, extreme heat,257 sandstorms, and in particular is known to be prone to flooding, and desertification.258 Data on historical disasters in experienced four major floods in October 1942, Libya are scarce and incomplete.259 In 1963, a 5.4 October 1959, October 1968, November 1986 and magnitude earthquake occurred in Al Marj, Northern September 2011.262 Figure 48: Historically Flood Prone Areas Source: Assessment team. 257 GFDRR, 2020. https://thinkhazard.org/en/report/145-libya. 258 UNDRR, 2023. https://www.undrr.org/media/85834/download?startDownload=true. 259 Only five natural hazards had been recorded in the EM-DAT data base since 1944, prior the 2023 floods. CRED/UCLouvain, 2023, https://public.emdat.be/data. 260 Ibid. 261 https://reliefweb.int/disaster/fl-2019-000051-lby ; CRED/UCLouvain, https://public.emdat.be/data. 262 https://sebhau.edu.ly/journal/index.php/jopas/article/view/2137. 192 Detailed Sector Assessments Climate change is expected to contribute to increases in • Sea level rise and storm surges: Sea levels are the intensity and/or frequency of hydro-meteorological rising faster in Libya at 6.8 mm a year compared events. The projected implications of climate change to 2.5 mm a year globally. This accelerated rise include the following: puts low-lying areas, including Benghazi, at significant risk.266 A much larger area will be • Temperature: While Libya is already experiencing affected by stronger storm surges which could increasing temperatures that exceed the global cause infrastructure damage, including to Libya’s average,263 this warming trend is set to continue. vast oil infrastructure,267 but also increasing Temperatures are expected to rise up to 5°C by the likelihood of groundwater salinization 2050, with significant impacts on the occurrence and coastal flooding. Given that the majority of heatwaves, and increased evaporation rates. In of the population (85 percent) lives in coastal summer the average daily maximum temperature zones, estimates indicate that approximately 76 in the areas affected by flooding is projected to be thousand inhabitants or 31 percent of the coastal 42°C by 2050. About half of the summer season population are at risk of being affected.268 will also surpass key Heat Index 35°C. • Drought: Droughts are likely to increase, with • Rainfall: Overall, changing climate is expected more consecutive days experiencing < 1mm to reduce the rainfall by around six percent by rainfall. Coastal areas will see a significant mid-century in the affected regions. Importantly, number of consecutive dry days at >300 days/ climate change will also lead to increasingly long year. Increasingly arid conditions will have intervals between precipitation events. However, obvious implications for availability of freshwater the intensity of the precipitation will increase for resources, but also may increase the likelihood of particular precipitation events leading to higher flash flooding events, as dry compacted soil has risk of pluvial and fluvial flooding. According reduced absorption capacities and leads to run off. to the  sixth assessment report  from the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change • Flood: The occurrence of extreme precipitation (IPCC), medicanes264 are projected to decrease events, that cause pluvial and fluvial flooding are in frequency, but increase in intensity in the projected to increase. Benghazi, for example, will Mediterranean region. 265 see 1 in 25-yr events occur every ~21 years; 1 in 50-yr event occur every ~40-years. 263 source: https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/programs/middle-east-programs/rafik-hariri-center-for-the-middle-east/ empowerme/macromena/climate-profile-libya/#:~:text=Increasing%20temperatures&text=While%20global%20 temperatures%20had%20already,Administration%20(NASA)%202021%20numbers.). Temperatures in the southern Mediterranean have increased by 1.5ºC above pre-industrial levels. 264 A “medicane” is the name given to a storm originating in the Mediterranean Sea that has the physical features of a hurricane, a type of tropical cyclone characterized by a low-pressure center circled by thunderstorms with high winds. Carbon Brief, 2023, https://www.carbonbrief.org/qa-how-are-libyas-medicane-fuelled-floods-linked-to-climate-change/. 265 IPCC, Cross-Chapter Paper 4: Mediterranean Region. 2021. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg2/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGII_CrossChapterPaper4.pdf. 266 Government of Libya. Libya NDC White Paper. 2022. 267 https://climate-diplomacy.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/csen_risk_brief_libya. 268 https://elibrary.worldbank.org/doi/abs/10.1596/1813-9450-4901. Detailed Sector Assessments 193 Detailed climate projections (SSP3) in the affected region Table 65: Maximum of Daily Maximum, Annual, Mean269 °C 2020–2039 2040–2059 2080–2099 Benghazi 40.60 (38.46, 43.31) 41.63 (39.36, 43.99) 43.76 (41.57, 46.43) Sahel Al Jabal 39.56 (37.45, 42.26) 40.69 (38.36, 43.57) 42.69 (40.34, 45.88) Derna 40.80 (38.88, 43.69) 41.86 (39.88, 44.75) 44.20 (41.82, 47.36) Source: Assessment team. Table 66: Precipitation Percent Change, Annual Percent (%) 2020–2039 2040–2059 2080–2099 Benghazi -3 (-11, 4) -6 (-12, 4) -12 (-21, -2) Sahel Al Jabal -3 (-12, 5) -6 (-15, 4) -13 (-24, -1) Derna -3 (-10, 6) -5 (12, 5) -9 (-18, 2) Source: Assessment team. Table 67: Changes in Flood Return Level 2035–2064 2070–2099 center 2025 center 2085 1 in 25-yr event (Years) Benghazi 20.80 (9.72, 47.47) 20.20 (9.98, 50.30) Sahel Al Jabal 22.18 (9.95, 56.19) 20.97 (8.27, 51.22) Derna 21.78 (8.44, 101.25) 15.20 (8.51, 37.26) 1 in 50-yr event Benghazi 40.11 (16.80, 106.81) 37.65 (15.46, 117.59) Sahel Al Jabal 43.63 (16.52, 144.80) 39.83 (12.10, 111.95) Derna 40.59 (12.47, 323.16) 27.15 (12.78, 74.07) Source: Assessment team. 269 Data presented as median, 10th and 90th percentile of the multi-model ensemble. All projections have uncertainty, as such it is important to present values with range. Range spread can also give insight into degree of uncertainty of model projections and model agreement. 194 Detailed Sector Assessments have the potential to exacerbate disputes and Institutional and Policy threaten social cohesion. With higher temperatures Framework for Disaster and contributing to increasing electricity and water Climate Risk Management demand, they will also affect the ability of the government to provide these services, which can potentially result in heightened citizen grievances. Libya lacks a well-defined institutional and Moreover, water scarcity – and the overuse of regulatory framework for disaster and climate risk groundwater – is a key challenge that impacts management, leading to ambiguity in mandates, local and regional fragility and conflict dynamics, roles, and responsibilities. Lack of centralized particularly in terms of intensifying social fissures leadership, institutional fragmentation and and competition over resources. Moreover, in the insufficient inter-ministerial coordination impede context of worsening climate-change induced progress to strengthen resilience. As a result, Libya drought, reliance on non-renewable water sources is is considered as one of the least prepared countries projected to increase, while the availability of water to face the challenges of climate change according to will be further reduced due to the drought itself. the ND-Gain index, ranking third-last out of middle- Libya’s excessive use of a water reserve shared with income countries and 126 out of 185 assessed Egypt, Chad, and Sudan, also risks exacerbating countries.270 Libya is currently among the very few cross-border and regional tensions. countries yet to develop a comprehensive climate strategy and National Determined Contribution as required by the Paris Agreement, although Libya Urban and Land-use Planning signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in 1992 and ratified the Paris Climate Rapid unplanned urban development has Accord in 2021.271 In addition, Libya lacks disaster significantly amplified the risk. As of 2020, Libya’s risk management laws, policies and strategies, population numbered 6,931 million, with 81 percent as well as elaborate emergency management/ living in cities.272 However, urban development and contingency plans. reconstruction in the last decade largely took place in the absence of updated urban master plans The Conflict-Climate and and building norms.273. Libya does not currently have a national building code. With the exception Disaster Nexus of Benghazi, only a limited number of cities have updated master plans.274 This resulted in a high State fragility in Libya is one of the key factors which level of informal development taking place in cities have prevented climate and disaster resilience from - with many homes and companies escaping the becoming a political priority. The fragility context building permitting processes and located in high- not only hampered planning and coordination risk areas. The damage seen in Al-Marj is a case in across sectors and regions but also resulted in point: the damage in this city was mostly confined to underinvestment and inadequate maintenance of the Old Al-Marj neighborhood, where many homes flood protection, dam, and drainage infrastructure. and buildings are poorly constructed of thin iron sheets.275 Another example is that of inadequate In a context already characterized by insecurity and land use planning: in Al Bayda and Soussa, houses, institutional fragility, climate and disaster shocks companies and infrastructure located in the 270 The ND-GAIN Country Index is composed of two key dimensions of adaptation: vulnerability and readiness to cope with impacts. (Source: https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/rankings/. Libya is below Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria, Lebanon, and Jordan, sharing the place with Iraq.). 271 Libya is in the process to develop its NDC and a white paper to contribute and structure the Libyan dialogue as it develops its first NDC has been published in 2022. 272 Bureau of Statistics and Census Libya. 273 A second planning generation (1980 -2000) led to the development of a national plan, regional and sub-regional plans as well as 244 urban master plans. However, the third generation of urban plans, initially planned to be developed for the 2000-2025 period was halted by the conflict started in 2011. Source: UN Habitat (2023), Land Administration and land rights for peace and development in Libya: analysis and recommendations. 274 In 2019, Benghazi commissioned the Greek company LED to produce urban master plan of Benghazi which was approved in 2023. Source : https://libyaninvestment.com/benghazi-signs-agreement-to-create-urban-masterplan-with-greek-company/. 275 IPSOS, Ground Partners, 2023. Detailed Sector Assessments 195 Figure 49: Overlay of 2023 flooded Areas and Historically Prone Areas Source: Assessment team. floodplains sustained significant damage during the (AWS), five upper-air stations, and five climate 2023 floods.276 stations.278 The LNMC also has a fixed weather radar and a mobile weather radar. However, the LNMC Early Warning Systems indicated that since 2011, a significant part of its network has been damaged by successive events. Prior to the floods, only a small number of weather, One of the key challenges impacting preparedness climate and hydrological stations located in the East and early response to climatic shocks is the need for were still operational, impairing weather monitoring effective early warning systems. The Libya National and forecasting for localized flood early warning. Meteorological Center (LNMC) is a long-standing Table 67 below summarizes operational weather, institution, with a significant number of staff.277 Its climate, and hydrological stations in affected areas network consists of 25 automatic weather stations prior to the floods. 276 UNEP/OCHA. October 2023. Environmental Challenges and Recommendations. Environmental Experts Mission. Libya Floods 2023. 277 It was established in 1950 under the supervision of the Ministry of Transport and has over 845 personnel. Source: The World Bank. 2023. Weather, Climate and Water Services in the Middle East and North Africa. Climate and Hydrometeorological Services Atlas in the Region. 278 Libya National Meteorological Centre, October 2023. 196 Detailed Sector Assessments Table 68: Operational Weather and Climate Stations in the East Prior to the 2023 Floods AWSs 1 in Al-Marj 1 in Benghazi (+ one planned in Al Abraq Airport) Upper-air Stations 1 in Benghazi Climate stations 1 in Al Bayda Hydrological stations Al Abraq, Al-Marj, Shahaat, Al Qayqab, Benghazi, Al Qubah, Al Abyar, Derna 279 Source: Assessment team. The LNMC also indicated that it lacks marine groups facing increased challenges in accessing the automatic weather stations.280 In 2017 its budget necessary resources to recover from the impact was 18 million LYD (equivalent to approximately US$ of the recent floods. Moreover, gaps in access to 12,87 million),281 which according to the LNMC is not financial services place women at a disadvantage in sufficient to adequately monitor climate and weather, safeguarding their funds from the adverse effects of nor to produce location-specific hydrometeorological disasters and accessing compensation benefits. forecasts and impact-based warnings.282 In addition, flood monitoring and forecasts also depend on quality hydrological data managed by the General Emergency Response Water Authority, on information-sharing between the In response to the disaster event, Libya’s National two institutions and on joint modeling capabilities. Meteorological Center issued warnings to Nevertheless, no analysis of these parameters has government authorities at least three days before the been carried out under this rapid assessment. floods. Subsequently, the Libyan Government based in Benghazi announced a state of emergency in the Disaster Risk Financing eastern region on Sept 9 and formed an emergency room. However, the lack of a functioning end-to-end A disaster contingency financial mechanism is in place EWS hampered early action. Moreover, it is unclear in Libya: a compensation benefit was set up in 2002283 whether the emergency warnings reached the entire to support victims of natural disasters who have population, including women, who are less likely to suffered physical or material damage. Benefit levels own a cellphone and utilize mobile internet services, are determined on a case-by-case basis, depending and may not have received the alerts. on damages incurred and the specific economic situation of the family. From its establishment in It was not possible to obtain information on the 2002 to the present day, the compensation benefit speed, effectiveness, and coordination of emergency has supported around 11,245 households, with a total responses, nor on whether the equipment, vehicles, financial compensation over the period of LYD 30.7 and human resources for emergency response were million. While this mechanism aims to address the adequate. Ground reports however indicate that immediate needs of disaster victims, it is important engineering committees were set up by a number of to note that the emergency compensation benefit municipal councils to carry out safety inspections in does not specifically target vulnerable populations. affected, partially damaged buildings. This lack of targeted assistance may result in these 279 The hydrological station managed in Derna is managed by Vision Foundation for Amateur Astronomers. All other stations are managed by LNMC. 280 Ministry of Transportation, 2022. The Status of the Infrastructure of the National Meteorological Centre After 12 Years of Successive Events. PowerPoint presentation. 281 Source: The World Bank. 2023. Weather, Climate and Water Services in the Middle East and North Africa. Climate and Hydrometeorological Services Atlas in the Region. 282 Ministry of Transportation, 2022. The Status of the Infrastructure of the National Meteorological Centre After 12 Years of Successive Events. PowerPoint presentation. 283 Now regulated by Decree No. 184 on Compensation to Citizens in Cases of Crises and Natural Disasters (2012) Detailed Sector Assessments 197 work across all strategic priorities of the Sendai Assessment of Disaster Effects: Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, namely: Damage and Loss Estimates 1) Understanding disaster risk; 2) Strengthening disaster risk governance to manage disaster risk; Apart from one hydrological station damaged by 3) Investing in disaster risk reduction for resilience; the flood, no additional reports were received and 4) Enhancing disaster preparedness for effective regarding damages to buildings and equipment that response and BBB in recovery, rehabilitation, and could potentially hinder weather forecasting and reconstruction. This multi-pronged approach calls flood warning capacity. Damages in the DRM sector for long-term engagement and political willingness. typically include damage to buildings, facilities, In addition, it will also be critical to embrace equipment for emergency response, damages to inclusivity in program design and implementation, buildings and equipment to monitor/forecast natural and ensure that disaster preparedness and hazards and manage early warning systems, emergency response trainings, early warning damages to disaster mitigation infrastructure, systems, disaster risk reduction/climate change and destruction of disaster related records and adaptation strategies etc. target the specific needs documents etc. Losses include disruption of access of the most vulnerable segments of the Libyan to and service delivery of DRM knowledge services population, including women, children, youth, the and resources, additional operational costs related elderly, IDPs and people with disabilities, and other to involvement of first responders in emergency and vulnerable groups. Building systems and capacities rescue operations etc. The analysis should also point at all levels should be central to all interventions. to additional risks and vulnerabilities created as a result of the disaster. However, due to institutional In the short to medium-term, the recovery strategy fragmentation on the one hand, and the fact that centers around: disaster and climate risk resilience had not gained political traction, obtaining in-depth information • Reinforcing the institutional and regulatory was challenging. Damage incurred to emergency framework for climate and disaster risk response facilities (namely fire stations, police management. stations) has been captured under the governance • Enhancing government and community disaster chapter/municipal services section. preparedness and response capacities. • Improving climate and disaster risk knowledge. Recovery Needs and Strategy Needs to strengthen climate and disaster risk resilience amount to US$ 27.7 million (US$ 11.7 million In light of the disaster, and considering climate in the short-term and 16 million in the medium- projections, Libya would need to embrace disaster term). Needs have been estimated against costs of and climate risk resilience as guiding principles similar studies and activities in other countries. for recovery. A comprehensive approach should Table 69: Total Cost of Needs Total Cost (in US$ Total Cost (in LYD million) - including million) - including Needs Type costs for BBB, etc. costs for BBB, etc. Reinforce the institutional and regulatory framework for disaster and climate risk management Accelerate the ratification of the Paris Agreement for Climate Change, 0 0 the development of associated strategies, including the country’s first Nationally Determined Contribution and its National Adaptation Plan, with a specific focus on the adaptative needs of vulnerable populations Map and review existing roles and responsibilities and national plans and 0.02 0.10 strategies for Disaster and Climate Risk Management Develop a Disaster Risk Management and Climate Change Adaptation 0.20 0.98 Strategy Finalize reforms to the building code, incl. code implementation support 0.80 3.90 and training, communication, and outreach 198 Detailed Sector Assessments Total Cost (in US$ Total Cost (in LYD million) - including million) - including Needs Type costs for BBB, etc. costs for BBB, etc. Develop guidelines for the construction of climate resilient infrastructure 0.50 2.44 and land-use planning Bridge gaps on hydromet services, EWS, disaster preparedness and response Repair and upgrade equipment for hydro-meteorological observation, 4.50 21.96 real-time monitoring, and forecasting Strengthen capabilities and develop Standard Operating Procedures 0.50 2.44 (SOPs) in weather and climate monitoring, forecasting, development, and dissemination of impact-based warnings Develop preparedness and emergency response plans in seven pilot 1.50 7.32 cities, informed by disaster scenarios, and organize simulation exercises Upgrade equipment and facilities for emergency response 5.00 24.40 Strengthen capacities for emergency response and recovery 3.28 16.01 Organize community level awareness-raising campaigns on disaster risk 1.00 4.88 and climate change Undertake detailed flood hazard risk mapping and assessment in two 1.35 6.59 large cities and five secondary cities Undertake a lessons learned exercise of response and recovery 0.03 0.15 processes following Storm Daniel Improve climate and disaster risk knowledge     Develop risk-informed urban development plans in two large cities and 4.00 19.52 five secondary cities Undertake feasibility studies for grey and green-blue infrastructure for 5.00 24.40 flood protection Total Needs 27.68 135.08 Source: Assessment team. Table 70: Prioritized and Sequenced Interventions for Reconstruction Short Term Medium Term Total cost Total Cost US$ LYD US$ LYD in US$ in LYD Category million million million million million million Reinforcing the institutional and regulatory framework for disaster and climate risk management Accelerate the ratification of the Paris Agreement 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 for Climate Change, the development of associated strategies, including the country’s first Nationally Determined Contribution and its National Adaptation Plan, with a specific focus on the adaptative needs of vulnerable populations Map and review existing roles and responsibilities 0.02 0.10 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.10 and national plans and strategies for Disaster and Climate Risk Management Develop a Disaster Risk Management and Climate     0.20 0.98 0.20 0.98 Change Adaptation Strategy Detailed Sector Assessments 199 Short Term Medium Term Total cost Total Cost US$ LYD US$ LYD in US$ in LYD Category million million million million million million Finalize the reform of the building code, incl. code 0.40 1.95 0.40 1.95 0.80 3.90 implementation support and training, communication, and outreach Develop guidelines for the construction of climate 0.25 1.22 0.25 1.22 0.50 2.44 resilient infrastructure and land-use planning Bridging gaps on hydromet services, EWS, disaster preparedness and response Repair and upgrade equipment for hydro- 1.00 4.88 3.50 17.08 4.50 21.96 meteorological observation, real-time monitoring, and forecasting Strengthen capabilities and develop SOPs in weather 0.25 1.22 0.25 1.22 0.50 2.44 and climate monitoring, forecasting, development, and dissemination of impact-based warnings Develop preparedness and emergency response 0.75 3.66 0.75 3.66 1.50 7.32 plans in seven pilot cities informed by disaster scenarios, and organize simulation exercises Upgrade equipment and facilities for emergency 3.00 14.64 2.00 9.76 5.00 24.40 response Strengthen capacities for emergency response and 1.64 8.00 1.64 8.00 3.28 16.01 recovery Organize community level awareness-raising 0.50 2.44 0.50 2.44 1.00 4.88 campaigns on disaster risk and climate change Undertake detailed flood hazard risk mapping and 1.35 6.59 0.00 0.00 1.35 6.59 assessments in two large cities and five secondary cities Undertake a lessons learned exercise of response 0.03 0.15     0.03 0.15 and recovery processes following Storm Daniel Improving climate and disaster risk knowledge. Develop risk-informed urban development plans in 1.00 4.88 3.00 14.64 4.00 19.52 two large cities and five secondary cities Undertake feasibility studies for grey and green-blue 1.50 7.32 3.50 17.08 5.00 24.40 infrastructure for flood   protection   11.69 57.05 15.99 78.03 27.68 135.08 Source: Assessment team. Limitations Meteorological Service, the National Safety Authority, the Libyan Environment Ministry, the Department of Humanitarian Affairs and Assistance (GNU’s Ministry For the purposes of this assessment, access of Social Affairs) have limited operational capacity in to information on Disaster and Climate Risk the East. In addition, DRM has not been a focus for Management was found to be limited. This is international stakeholders to date – apart from EWS because key institutional stakeholders at the central which have been strengthened with support from level based in the West, namely the Libya National UNDP in 2000.284 284 The World Bank. 2023. Weather, Climate and Water Services in the Middle East and North Africa. Climate and Hydrometeorological Services Atlas in the Region. 200 Detailed Sector Assessments SOCIAL SUSTAINABILITY AND INCLUSION The 2023 floods resulted in 4,352 deaths, the The collective centers hosting IDPs, particularly in displacement of 44,800 individuals and has Derna, Al Bayda, and Soussa, face critical challenges affected an estimated 250,000 people, creating in accessing safe drinking water due to flood and pre- serious humanitarian challenges. These new flood damages, impacting the overall population.287 To affected populations have added to the already address this, ongoing early recovery efforts focus on existing numbers displaced in the affected regions rehabilitating boreholes, the desalination plant, water before the catastrophic floods. Among those reservoirs, and pipes. The latest update indicates the affected, vulnerable populations including women installation of 10 water tanks at IDP collective centers, (particularly lactating and pregnant, or female- directly benefiting 960 people.288 Despite these headed households), children, migrants, and people interventions, the needs of IDPs persist, as evidenced with disabilities and people suffering from chronic by the distribution of Core Relief Items (CRIs) and Non- illnesses have been disproportionally impacted. It Food Items (NFIs). Derna city, with its 16 distribution is important to understand the specific needs of points covering affected neighborhoods, including these populations and the challenges they face for IDP sites and families in unfinished buildings,289 a more inclusive and effective response. The RDNA remains a focal point for assistance, with local aims to apply an inclusion lens to understand the authorities requesting support for a second round of differentiated impacts of the disaster on vulnerable NFI distribution to 25,000 IDPs (approximately 5,000 populations and subsequently identify their households), according to OCHA. needs. It uses and synthesizes data from multiple development partners and complements this with The floods have severely impacted a country already primary data when available. grappling with fragility and conflict. OCHA reports around 2,000 IDPs, 7,500 returnees, and 4,400 Internally Displaced People migrants in Derna, the epicenter of devastation. Primary data reveals that 85 percent of migrants and Migrants face limited access to food, 77 percent to health services, 53 percent to shelter, 48 percent to NFIs, The aftermath of the floods has led to the 21 percent to water and hygiene, and 11 percent to displacement of an additional 44,500 individuals285, security and protection. The pre-existing conditions with 96 percent of IDPs already concentrated in endured by these vulnerable populations underscore the eastern municipalities. The remaining four the acute challenges they face in the wake of the percent of displaced individuals find themselves in floods, demanding urgent and targeted assistance.290 Western Libya9, and the Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) notes that Furthermore, there is a potential for long-term approximately 1,750 IDPs are being monitored in tensions between host communities and IDPs. 18 centers repurposed from schools, resorts, and While reports suggest initial positive sentiment hotels, with plans for imminent relocation.286 towards Storm Daniel IDPs, such a response often is not sustainable. While conducting a detailed assessment of the potential social tensions between 285 OCHA, November 28, 2023. 286 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 26 October 2023) https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood- response-humanitarian-update-26-october-2023-enar. 287 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 26 October 2023) https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood- response-humanitarian-update-26-october-2023-enar. 288 Ibid. 289 Ibid. 290 Ibid. Detailed Sector Assessments 201 host communities and IDPs is beyond the scope Beyond this, disasters have a differentiated of this report, such analysis, which requires an in- impact on women and girls in all aspects of life. depth examination, should be undertaken during the The lack of access to water and hygiene supplies subsequent recovery phase. disproportionally affects women and adolescents during their menstruation, exposing them to Violence against Women and multiple health risks and hindering their ability to participate in various facets of life. Furthermore, Men limited access to food has a disproportionate impact on women and children, with nutrition organizations In late October 2023, the situation in collective sites managing and treating moderate and severe acute for IDPs was reported as “fluid”.291 While more malnutrition, and reporting severe cases among information is becoming available on the situation children under five years of age, and lactating and needs of IDP groups, existing reports lack an women.294 International experience shows that girls assessment of protection risks faced by women and in conflict and crisis-affected contexts are nearly 2.5 children. Experience globally has shown that that times more likely to be out of school than those in risks for women and children escalate significantly countries without crises.295 While specific data on in post-disaster contexts, necessitating a prioritized the differentiated impacts of the disaster on women monitoring effort. The distress caused by disasters and girls in Libya are unavailable, research and alters the gender power dynamic, undermines reports from analogous crisis situations underscore protection systems, and further exposes vulnerable the disproportionate effect of disasters, especially in populations to violence. Displacement and conflict conflict situations, on these vulnerable groups. add layers of distress that may expose women and girls to further risks, especially in the absence of on- site reporting, monitoring mechanisms and referral Children’s Safety systems. These problems are made worse by flood- It is estimated that nearly 300,000 children were disrupted communications. exposed to the storm that caused the floods in Libya. Of those, approximately 16,000 have been displaced.296 Amidst data gaps, the protection risks faced by According to the UNICEF Representative in Libya, vulnerable populations in affected areas remain “The aftermath of floods is often more deadly for unclear. However, the WFP receives numerous children than the extreme weather event itself. requests for protection, constituting 22 percent Children are among the most vulnerable, and are at of the 6,623 calls received from September high risk of disease outbreaks, lack of safe drinking 12 to October 17.292 Additionally, reports from water, malnutrition, disruption in learning, and development workers highlight the elevated risk of violence.”297 Cases of acute malnutrition have been early marriage, sexual exploitation, and abuse faced reported among children under the age of five. by some women and girls, with concerns raised regarding the limited access to specialized services Furthermore, children who lose, or are separated and activities, particularly for adolescents.293 from their parents and families are more exposed to violence and exploitation.298 According to OCHA, there are an estimated 400 unaccompanied and 291 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 26 October 2023) https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood- response-humanitarian-update-26-october-2023-enar. 292 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 17 October 2023) https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood-response- humanitarian-update-17-october-2023-enar. 293 Ibid. 294 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 26 October 2023) https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood- response-humanitarian-update-26-october-2023-enar. 295 Show Humanity for Her: Education Cannot Wait for Girls in Conflicts and Disasters https://www.educationcannotwait.org/ news-stories/directors-corner/show-humanity-her-education-cannot-wait-girls-in-conflicts. 296 Yasmine Sherif, Director Education Cannot Wait (ECW) https://www.unicef.org/press-releases/more-16000-children-are- displaced%E2%80%AFfollowing-libya-floods-unicef. 297 Libya: Around 300,000 children affected by devastating floods, UNICEF, September 2023, https://www.unicef.ch/en/ current/news/2023-09-15/libya-around-300000-children-affected-devastating-floods. 298 Ibid. 202 Detailed Sector Assessments separated children in the flood affected areas.299 These children require diverse forms of support, Recovery Strategy for including family tracing and reunification services, Increased Social Inclusion or foster parenting placement. Delays in their registration300 pose a significant risk, potentially The Libya floods present differentiated impacts exacerbating protection and health challenges. on vulnerable groups, including migrants, women, Immediate and effective measures are essential to children, and persons with disabilities, in addition address these complex issues and ensure the safety to displacing tens of thousands. The existing post- and well-being of these children. 2011 fragility and conflict challenges in Libya exacerbate these effects. In light of this, response Inclusion of Persons with and rehabilitation efforts must adopt an inclusive and responsive approach, prioritizing the needs of Disabilities all, particularly the most vulnerable. Understanding the unique requirements of these populations and Persons living with disabilities constitute part of the acknowledging their disproportionate vulnerability most vulnerable populations in disaster situations. to the floods is crucial. According to the United Nations, “individuals with disabilities are disproportionately affected in Despite data limitations in certain areas, insights disaster, emergency, and conflict situations due from global disaster experiences guide a responsible to inaccessible evacuation, response (including way forward. To shape responses, an inclusion lens, shelters, camps, and food distribution), and recovery which accounts for the distinct needs of the most efforts.”301 Despite this recognized impact, there is vulnerable, is imperative. Building on this analysis, a paucity of data and information on the specific urgent measures include: ramifications of the Libya floods on individuals with disabilities, and their inclusion in ongoing response • Reducing limitations and barriers for the most efforts. vulnerable to actively participate in consultations and prioritization mechanisms, determining the Post-disaster, the immediate provision of assistive nature and sequence of early assistance. devices, medication, and disposable materials • Establishing and monitoring easily accessible is critical for the survival of those with severe complaint mechanisms and referral systems for disabilities. According to OCHA, collaborative gender-based violence (women and men) cases, initiatives involving UNHCR and Humanity and including instances of human trafficking. Inclusion (HI)302 aim to work with local communities • Strengthening protection measures to safeguard and authorities. Their collective goal is to identify, vulnerable individuals. register, and refer individuals with disabilities to • Scaling-up preventive and response activities essential services.303 This concerted effort strives to for violence against women and men to create a address the unique needs of this vulnerable group, safer environment. ensuring their inclusion in broader response efforts • Strengthening protection mechanisms for and enhancing their resilience in the aftermath of the children, especially against sexual abuse and disaster. While facing challenges posed by limited child marriage. data, prioritizing immediate and specialized support • Registering and providing essential needed for persons with disabilities remains indispensable support to all unaccompanied children to address for their well-being and recovery. their unique needs. • Identifying and accounting for the needs of people with disabilities in all phases of response efforts. 299 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 17 October 2023), https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood- response-humanitarian-update-17-october-2023-enar. 300 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 17 October 2023), https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood- response-humanitarian-update-17-october-2023-enar. 301 Disability-Inclusive Disaster Risk Reduction and Emergency Situations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, https://www.un.org/development/desa/disabilities/issues/disability-inclusive-disaster-risk-reduction-and-emergency- situations.html. 302 Humanity & Inclusion (HI) is an independent aid organization that has been operating in Libya since 2011. HI works in situations of poverty and exclusion, conflict, and disaster. 303 Libya: Flood Response Humanitarian Update (as of 26 October 2023), https://reliefweb.int/report/libya/libya-flood- response-humanitarian-update-26-october-2023-enar. Detailed Sector Assessments 203 IMPACT ON WOMEN AND MEN The RDNA’s needs assessment considers the sex- Education repercussions, such as prolonged school differentiated impact of the floods on women and closures, exacerbate vulnerabilities among children men, emphasizing the necessity for appropriate and significantly affect women, who must balance mitigation and recovery interventions that address care responsibilities with other duties like jobs and gender gaps. This section summarizes the evidence housework. This, in turn, exacerbates participation presented in the RDNA on the specific challenges gaps between women and men, and reinforces women face to facilitate a better understanding of traditional gender roles in terms of unequal these differences and design better policies and distribution of work. Prioritizing children’s access to programs to benefit all. learning will be key in the reconstruction period, as will psychosocial assistance. Each sector chapter outlines considerations for vulnerable populations, with a specific focus on Partial damages and complete destruction of women. Key considerations include women’s unique community assets in affected municipalities health and biological needs, economic outcomes, disrupt essential services beyond education financial inclusion, and access to services, as well and health. This disruption particularly impacts as concerns about safety and security. Pre-storm vulnerable groups such as women, the elderly, and flood analysis shows that women in Libya were and children. Their recovery will require women more vulnerable than men to shocks. Libyan women and vulnerable population sensitive approaches. lag behind men in labor force participation by almost Targeted consumption support, aided by tools like 20 percentage points, and 20 percent of adult women Geo-Enabling Monitoring and Supervision, can help in Libya have no formal or only elementary levels identify the location and differentiated needs from of education. Lower economic participation limits those of the broader population. Enhancing financial women’s economic freedom. Moreover, women inclusion among women and other vulnerable in Libya have less access to savings accounts and populations will also promote accessible and secure are less likely to use a mobile phone to pay bills. cash transfers. Financial exclusion further compromises women’s abilities to respond to crises. Violence against women and men, intensified by economic shocks, also demands focused attention While the climate and economic shocks may have during recovery. While challenging to monitor, disproportionately affected women, furthering the firsthand accounts from ground zero report cases of gap between women and men in the country, limited human trafficking. In addition, requests received by sex-disaggregated data post-disaster restricts a the WFP highlight the need for protection. Safeguards comprehensive analysis. Qualitative data from on- and support mechanisms to prevent violence against the-ground organizations and experiences from women, men and children are crucial for the well- other disasters inform the analysis. being of vulnerable populations. In the health sector, compromised infrastructure and The floods have also disproportionately affected limited access to services pose a significant threat other aspects of women’s lives, including livelihoods, to women’s unique needs. For example, women mobility, and connectivity. Women play a key role require menstrual hygiene products, which are often in agricultural activities, which have been deeply ignored in the immediate disaster response, and impacted. Women-specific challenges, such as have reproductive and maternal needs. Immediate limited access to resources and opportunities, actions are crucial, including access to specialized should be considered for the recovery period. In professionals and interventions for menstrual addition, mobility has become harder for all due to hygiene. infrastructure damage and road closures. These damages disproportionately impact women, who face additional security risks of taking lengthy 204 Detailed Sector Assessments detours. Moreover, other connectivity infrastructure, such as internet services, have also been impacted. Women, who are generally less connected to mobile communication, will become more isolated due to the disruption of ICT services. The reconstruction efforts pose an opportunity to improve transport and communication systems, while also supporting more inclusive systems for women and minorities. Moving forward, an inclusive and effective response requires understanding the specific needs of women and other vulnerable populations. Ongoing monitoring of outcomes for women and men is critical to prevent exacerbating inequalities. Prioritizing the needs of women, children, and vulnerable groups across all sectors will contribute to a resilient and sustainable rebuilding process that fosters equality and community well-being. Limitations The assessment of Women and Men is limited due to the lack of comprehensive sex-disaggregated data, which has impacted the inclusion of a thorough gender analysis in the report.  205