Human Development 54767 215 September 2002 Findings reports on ongoing operational, economic, and sector work carried out by the World Bank and its member governments in the Africa Region. It is published periodically by the Knowledge and Learning Center on behalf of the Region. The views expressed in Findings are those of the author/s and should not be attributed to the World Bank Group. http://www.worldbank.org/afr/findings Africa: Social and Economic Development Goals A Progress Report Findings uring the 1998 Second Tokyo · Reduce infant and child mortal- D International Conference on African Development (TICAD ity rates to one-third of their 1990 levels by 2015; II), a set of ambitious poverty re- · Universal access to reproductive duction and human development health services by 2015; goals were established for the Af- · Halve the number of malnour- rica region, drawing on and reaf- ished people by 2015; firming commitments made three · Safe water and sanitation for 80 years earlier at the First TICAD percent of the population by conference and at the UN Social 2005. Summit in Copenhagen. The TICAD · Reduce the number of women liv- II Agenda for Action dealt with three ing in poverty by two-thirds by broad areas: social development; 2015. economic development; and basic foundations for development (good To what extent has progress been governance, conflict prevention and made on reaching the above men- post-conflict development). Nine tioned education, health and nu- time-bound social and economic trition goals adopted at Tokyo? The development goals form a key part authors of Can Africa Reach the In- of the agenda: ternational Targets for Human De- · Universal Primary Education velopment? An Assessment of (UPE) in Africa by 2015, with 80 Progress towards the Targets of the percent completion by 2005; 1998 Second Tokyo International · Halve the 1990 illiteracy rate by Conference on African Development 2005, with an emphasis on im- (TICAD II) explore the extent to proving female literacy rates; which the first eight of the above · Gender equality in primary and targets will be achieved if trends secondary enrollments by 2005; during the 1990s were to continue · Halve the 1990 maternal mortal- until 2015. The data available did ity rate by 2005, and by a fur- not permit assessment of progress ther half by 2015; towards the ninth target. The con- clusion is that without a dramatic However, the fact remains that · Approximately two-thirds are off change in the pace of progress, Af- most countries are off track on track on meeting the TICAD goals rica will miss most of the targets most of the targets and will need on safe water and sanitation and by a wide margin. Of course, com- to increase the rate of progress. In of these the overwhelming major- paring recent trends with rates of approximately one-third of these ity are seriously off track. progress does not capture the start- cases, countries are moderately off · Only six countries out of 47 are ing points of countries nor their track, and could reach the targets currently on track for halving broader development context. by less than a doubling of the cur- malnutrition by 2015, while 33 Moreover, data on some indicators rent rate of progress. This means countries are seriously off track. are incomplete, at times unreliable that the majority that are off track and often only available up to 1995 are seriously off track and need to The reasons for poor performance or 1996, meaning that it was not at lease double the current rate of regarding mortality and malnutri- possible to track progress in the progress to reach the TICAD goals. tion targets vary. The ambitious second half of the 1990s for some These countries are concentrated nature of these targets may offer countries. However, in spite of in West and Central Africa and the some explanation. However, the these important caveats, there can Horn of Africa, and include the performance in other developing be no doubt about the main con- most populous in the region. For regions--especially South Asia-- clusion. In sum: many, especially those countries suggests that far more can be done · On no target are a majority of severely affected by civil conflict, to reduce mortality rates. Targeted countries in the region on track; political instability and AIDS, fun- immunization programs, clean wa- · Only five of the 47 countries are damental challenges in the broader ter provision and reproductive on track for at least half the tar- development context need to be health care can drastically reduce gets; addressed before any sustainable the numbers of infant and child · No country is on track for all the progress towards the targets can be deaths. More must be done to pre- targets it adopted at Tokyo and made. vent mother-to-child transmission every country is seriously off The rate of progress towards in- of HIV/AIDS and to protect children track on at least one of the eight dividual targets varies greatly. In orphaned or neglected as a result quantitative targets assessed; general, more progress has been of the virus. Indeed, the strong · Twelve countries are off track on made towards education goals than negative correlation between the in- all the targets for which data are towards health and nutrition goals, cidence of HIV/AIDS and the rate available. while the least progress has been of progress on infant and child made in infant and child mortality mortality underscores the need to and child malnutrition. combat AIDS as part of national This regional picture conceals important differences between · On the basis of trends up to the and regional strategies to reach the countries and sectors. A small mid-1990s, almost one-half of all targets. Similarly, conflict-affected number of countries--principally in countries are on track for achiev- countries tend to have very high Southern Africa--are currently on ing UPE by 2015 while 13 coun- mortality rates and poor or nega- track to reach several of the TICAD tries are seriously off track. tive progress towards reducing goals. These include middle-income · Almost 90 percent of countries them, highlighting the importance countries such as Mauritius and are either on track or moderately of political and social stability for Namibia but also low-income coun- off track towards reaching the lit- advances in human development. tries such as The Gambia and Tan- eracy targets for 2005. In malnutrition, a similar picture zania. This demonstrates that posi- · Approximately 80 percent of emerges. Although South Africa tive results can be achieved even countries are off track for achiev- achieved remarkable reductions in in the most resource constrained ing gender parity in primary and child malnutrition during the environments, provided the right secondary education by 2005. 1990s, other countries with a high policies and strong political com- · Almost every country is off track incidence of HIV/AIDS and coun- mitment are in place. for achieving reductions in infant tries affected by conflict have ex- and child mortality. perienced large increases in the malnutrition rate. Addressing food century. The potential bad news is security issues and nutritional that the beginnings of economic This article was written by Angel needs is critical to progress on all and social recovery that took hold Mattimore and is based on the pub- the targets adopted at TICAD II. in Africa in the second half of the lication, Can Africa reach the Inter- Although the rate of progress in 1990s cannot be sustained unless national Targets for Human Devel- education is more encouraging there is accelerated progress to- opment ? An Assessment of than in health, there is no room for wards the development goals Progress towards the Targets of the complacency. Over 70 percent of agreed to at Tokyo. 1998 Second Tokyo International school-age children in Africa live in There is no blueprint for achiev- Conference on African Development countries that are off track for ing progress: strategies and inter- (TICAD II), Africa Region Human De- meeting the 2015 UPE target, while ventions in each country should velopment Working Papers series, millions of children who enter reflect national conditions, needs, September 2001. For more infor- school receive an education that is and priorities. Some countries need mation, e-mail too short or of such low quality that far reaching reforms beyond the afrhdseries@worldbank.org they never acquire functional lit- human development sectors; oth- eracy skills. The 30 percent in- ers need to commit more resources crease expected in the regional for improving human development school age population by 2015 outcomes. In almost every country, poses further challenges not faced there is substantial room for using by other developing regions as does resources more efficiently. In many the projected increase in the num- countries, the HIPC Initiative is ber of children being orphaned as starting to release significant pub- a result of HIV/AIDS. lic resources through debt relief. The gender disparity in primary On average, the HIPC countries and secondary school enrollments have committed to use about 40 also demands urgent action. Al- percent of these resources on ba- though the gap has closed signifi- sic education and about 25 percent cantly in many countries, in much on basic health interventions. If in- of West and Central Africa the gen- vested wisely, these resources der gap remains large, particularly could help lay the foundations for at the secondary level. Given the sustained growth and poverty re- critical role of female education in duction. Donors can also make a improving a broad range of human crucial contribution by providing development indicators, the limited increased financial support and progress towards gender equality in ensuring that their assistance is education risks overall progress used more effectively by working towards the TICAD goals. with governments and civil society Despite the genuine challenges in strategic partnerships. There is and setbacks, there is a window of also a need for regional strategies opportunity for real progress. The and partnerships to combat HIV/ good news is that a strong consen- AIDS, resolve and prevent conflicts, sus exists on the basic conditions and generate economic growth needed for achieving poverty reduc- needed to reduce poverty. Creating tion and economic development in a stable development context and the region. There is no doubt that building the partnerships needed achieving these goals will generate to improve the well-being of Africa's massive improvements in well-be- people are the critical challenges ing and will help set the African facing Africa as it moves deeper into continent on a trajectory of growth, the 21st century. stability and prosperity for the 21st Findings Findings can be accessed via the World Bank Group's website at http://www.worldbank.org/ Click on Publications, then Periodicals. Or, Findings would also be of interest to: click on Countries and Regions, then Africa Name Institution Letters, comments, and requests for publications not Address available at the World Bank Bookstore should be addressed to: Editor, Findings Operational Quality and Knowledge Services Africa Region, The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Room J-5-055 Washington, D.C. 20433 e-mail: pmohan@worldbank.org