Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya 1. Kenya at a Glance A. Country context Kenya stands out among African countries with a pathways to prosperity regardless of where they distinctive profile: high educational achievement live, their family background, or their economic but untapped economic potential for its youth, circumstances. particularly adolescent girls. As a lower middle- income country, Kenya exemplifies both progress Investing in adolescent girls’ empowerment in and persistent challenges in advancing gender Kenya could yield substantial returns through equality and economic opportunity. However, increased productivity, innovation, and economic significant disparities exist across multiple growth. Estimates suggest that investing in dimensions: geographic (with stark county- adolescent girls in Kenya between now and 2040 level differences), gender (with boys and girls could generate more than $150 billion in additional experiencing different pathways), rural-urban income for a cost of around $13 billion. At the (showing distinct patterns of opportunity and scale of the continent, the “Pathways to Prosperity participation), and socioeconomic status (with for Adolescent girls in Africa1 report” estimates household wealth strongly influencing outcomes). that similar investments across Africa could These multifaceted disparities reveal both the generate more than an estimated $2.4 trillion in progress made and the persistent challenges additional income for a cost of around $200 billion in ensuring all adolescent girls can access (Ajayi and Koussoubé, 2024).2 Figure 1: Cross-country differences in Adolescent girls’ experiences in Africa Low marriage/childbearing, moderate to high schooling High schooling, low work participation High work participation, low schooling High marriage/childbearing, low schooling Moderate levels across all indicators Note: Data for adolescent girls aged 15-19. Source: Original figure for this publication, based on data from USAID’s latest Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), https://www.dhsprogram.com 2 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya B. Key development indicators: → School enrollment: 84.7% of adolescent girls (ages 15-19) are in school (76.9% are exclusively in school). This is significantly higher than the Africa average of 51.5%. → Marriage and childbearing: 87.4% of adolescent girls (ages 15-19) are unmarried without children, significantly higher than the Africa average of 73.4%. → Economic engagement: 12.2% of adolescent girls (ages 15-19) are working for pay (7.8% combining school and work, 4.4% exclusively working), lower than the Africa average of 22.3%. → Legal framework: Kenya scores 70 out of 100 on the World Bank’s Women Business and the Law (WBL) 2024 legal frameworks index, above the Africa average of 57.4. However, the supportive frameworks score of 45 out of 100 suggests implementation gaps between legal rights and practice.3 → Internet usage: 25.5% of adolescent girls (ages 15-19) have used the internet versus 39.1% of adolescent boys (ages 15-19). → Mobile financial transactions: 32.3% of adolescent girls (ages 15-19) use mobile phones for financial transactions versus 42.9% of adolescent boys (ages 15-19). → Smartphone ownership: 30.2% of adolescent girls (ages 15-19) have smartphones versus 44.3% of adolescent boys (ages 15-19). C. Key policy opportunities: To leverage Kenya’s educational achievements and unlock economic opportunities, priorities should be: → Supporting school to work transitions → Leveraging strong digital infrastructure → Strengthening implementation of legal frameworks This context sets the stage for targeted interventions that can help Kenya maximize its investment in girls’ education through improved economic opportunities and stronger implementation of existing legal frameworks. 3 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya 2. Understanding Adolescent Girls’ Pathways A. Different pathways to empowerment Data reveal how adolescent girls (ages 15-19) in Kenya follow different pathways to empowerment, aligning with five key profiles identified in the Pathways to Prosperity Report framework (see Ajayi and Koussoubé, 2024). → Grace’s path (In School, Not Working, Not Married, No Child): This represents the largest group in most counties, especially in Central Kenya (Murang’a: 88.6%). However, this pathway becomes significantly less common in northern counties (Samburu: 32.3%, Turkana: 42.3%). → Imani’s path (In School and Working, Not Married, No Child): This combination shows notable regional variation, with some counties having significant proportions of girls balancing education and work (Kericho: 17.9%, Nyamira: 17.4%), while the pathway is virtually absent in others (Murang’a, Taita Taveta: both 0%). → Mariam’s path (Not in School, Not Working, Not Married, No Child): This vulnerable pathway is concentrated in certain regions (Garissa: 29.5%, Turkana: 30.1%), often signaling risk of early marriage and requiring targeted policy attention. → Chantal’s path (Not in School but Working, Not Married, No Child): Economic activity without schooling is most common in Turkana (7.0%) and Nairobi (5.2%), representing both challenges and opportunities for supporting girls’ economic participation. → Aya’s path (Not in School, Not Working, Married with Children): This most vulnerable pathway shows strong regional patterns, with highest rates in Samburu (29.0%) and Marsabit (18.9%), highlighting areas where early marriage and childbearing significantly impact girls’ development. 4 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya Figure 2: Five pathways for adolescent girls in Kenya Murang'a Kitui Makueni Laikipia Kisumu Nyeri Nyandarua Taita Taveta Embu Elgeyo-Marakwet Nairobi Machakos Vihiga Mombasa Siaya Kisii Kirinyaga Nandi Kilifi Kiambu Uasin Gishu Bungoma Baringo Tharaka-Nithi Kakamega Trans Nzoia Kwale Bomet Nyamira Homa Bay Isiolo Wajir Nakuru Narok Busia Meru Kericho Lamu Migori West Pokot Kajiado Tana River Mandera Marsabit Garissa Turkana Samburu 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% In School Not Working (Grace) In School Working (Imani) Not In School Not Working (Mariam) Not In School But Working (Chantal) Not In School, Not Working, Married With Child (Aya) Other married, or with child Source: Original map for this publication, based on data from USAID’s 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), https://www.dhsprogram.com 5 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya B. Geographic disparities There are significant regional disparities in the rates of adolescent girls who are out of school and not working or are married or have children, with rates ranging from 6.1% in Nyeri to 66.1% in Samburu. → Northern and northeastern counties Figure 3: County-level vulnerability map indicating percentage of adolescent girls not in school and not working, or married or with children crisis: These regions show alarmingly high vulnerability rates (Samburu: 66.1%, Turkana: 49.7%, Garissa: 45.9%, Marsabit: 44.1%), requiring urgent intervention. → Other high vulnerability counties: Beyond the northern regions, counties such as West Pokot (41.6%), Tana River (41.5%), and Kajiado (34.6%) also exhibit concerning levels of adolescent girls’ vulnerability. → Low vulnerability counties: Central Kenya shows much more favorable outcomes, with counties like Nyeri (6.1%), Nyandarua (8.1%), and Kirinyaga (9.2%) having the lowest vulnerability rates. → Urban counties: Major urban counties 80 - 100 (Nairobi: 12.1%, Mombasa: 16.6%) report 60 - 80 40 - 60 lower overall vulnerability levels, likely due 20 - 40 to better infrastructure and opportunities. 0 - 20 However, these statistics may mask significant disparities within urban areas, Note: Data for adolescent girls aged 15-19. particularly for girls in informal settlements Source: Original map for this publication, based on data from USAID’s 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), https://www.dhsprogram.com who likely face vulnerability levels similar to those for girls in disadvantaged rural areas. These patterns suggest the need for regionally tailored interventions that consider local economic opportunities, cultural contexts, and existing infrastructure to support girls along their distinct pathways to empowerment. 6 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya 3. Understanding the Gaps A. The gender divide Girls face substantial gender-specific challenges: → School enrollment and retention: While → Economic engagement: Boys show higher overall school enrollment is comparable overall higher economic participation (36.5%) between girls and boys (84.7% vs 88.8%), girls compared to girls (12.2%). Among those not in are significantly less likely to combine school school, boys are twice as likely to be working, and work (7.8% compared to 28.5% for boys) highlighting how traditional gender roles may and more likely to be out of school and not direct boys toward economic activity while working (10.9% vs 3.2% for boys). limiting girls’ opportunities. These patterns suggest traditional gender roles may be → Marriage and childbearing: Marriage and influencing outcomes: boys move toward childbearing disproportionately impact girls, economic activity while maintaining education, with 12.5% of girls either married or having while girls face higher rates of early marriage/ children compared to only 1.4% of boys. childbearing and are less likely to participate in This represents a major barrier to continued the labor market. education and economic participation Figure 4: Gender Differences in Adolescent experiences No Child Not Married Adolescent No Child and Married Girls With Child Not Married With Child Married No Child Not Married Adolescent No Child and Married Boys With Child Not Married With Child Married 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% In School and Not Working In School and Working Not In School and Working Not In School and Not Working Note: Data for adolescent girls and boys aged 15-19. Source: Original map for this publication, based on data from USAID’s 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), https://www.dhsprogram.com 7 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya B. The rural-urban divide → School enrollment and retention: Despite → Economic engagement: Rural girls more often similar overall enrollment rates (urban: combine school and work, while urban girls are 82.5%, rural: 85.6%), urban girls focus more more likely to be working exclusively (5.9% vs exclusively on education alone (77.1%), while 3.8% in rural areas). Though the proportion of rural girls more frequently combine school with girls neither in school nor working is similar work (8.8% vs 5.4% in urban areas). across settings (around 11%), the underlying circumstances differ substantially. → Marriage and childbearing: Rural areas show higher rates of early marriage and childbearing. The proportion of unmarried girls with children is notably higher in rural areas (6.9% vs 3.3% in urban areas), suggesting different social norms and access to services. Figure 5: Rural-urban differences in Adolescent girls experiences No Child and Not Married No Child and Married Urban With Child and Not Married With Child and Married No Child and Not Married No Child and Married Rural With Child and Not Married With Child and Married 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% In School and Not Working In School and Working Not In School and Not Working Not In School and Working Note: Data for adolescent girls aged 15-19. Source: Original map for this publication, based on data from USAID’s 2022 Kenya Demographic and Health Survey (DHS), https://www.dhsprogram.com 8 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya C. The household wealth divide → School enrollment and retention: The wealth households. This wealth-based disparity gap persists in education, with 85.6% of girls has profound implications for girls’ future from the wealthiest households in school opportunities. compared to 77.7% of girls from the poorest. Most striking is that 19.0% of girls from the → Economic engagement: While overall least wealthy households are out of school and economic participation is slightly higher among not working, compared to only 6.7% of girls girls from the wealthiest households (13.6% from the wealthiest households. vs 11.0%), the patterns differ significantly. The most concerning disparity is in disconnection → Marriage and childbearing: Early marriage from both education and work: 19.0% of and childbearing dramatically increase with girls from the least wealthy households poverty, with 20.2% of girls from the least compared to 6.7% of girls from the wealthiest wealthy households married or with children households are neither in school nor working. compared to 5.5% of girls from the wealthiest Figure 6: Differences in Adolescent girls experiences by Household wealth No Child Not Married (Poorest) No Child and Married Quintile Bottom With Child Not Married With Child Married No Child Not Married Top Quintile (Richest) No Child and Married With Child Not Married With Child Married 0 20 40 60 80 100 In School and Not Working In School and Working Not In School and Not Working Not In School and Working Note: Data for adolescent girls aged 15-19. Source: Original map for this publication, based on 2022 data from USAID’s Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), https://www.dhsprogram.com These patterns reveal how gender, geography, and poverty interact to create multiple, reinforcing barriers for many adolescent girls in Kenya. The most vulnerable girls—those who are poor, living in rural or marginalized regions, particularly in the north—face compounded disadvantages across all dimensions. While Kenya has made impressive progress in overall education access, these intersecting disparities highlight the need for targeted interventions that address not just individual factors but their combined effects. 9 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya 4. The Path Forward: Unlocking Opportunities for Adolescent Girls in Kenya A. Evidence from successful programs in Kenya Three types of interventions have shown particular promise in Kenya. Education policy reforms: enrollment and financial behaviors, while significantly delaying child marriage (Austrian → The 2008 secondary education expansion et al., 2020, 2021, 2022).7,8,9 Notably, the program successfully shifted young women program also showed sustained improvements toward skilled employment (Brudevold- in urban areas two years after completion, Newman, 2021).4 particularly in reproductive health knowledge and educational attainment (Kangwana et al., → When combined with health services and 2022).10 rights-based reforms, education policies have also effectively delayed marriage and Vocational and market-driven training childbearing (Mason-Jones et al., 2023; Harari, 2019).5,6 → Skills training paired with market information has helped increase women’s participation in Comprehensive approaches: male-dominated trades (Hicks et al., 2016).11 → The Adolescent Girls’ Initiative–Kenya → A microfranchising initiative in Nairobi showed (AGI-K) demonstrated the power of bundled early success in boosting self-employment interventions. By integrating safe spaces, earnings, though sustaining long-term impact cash transfers, health education, and financial remains a challenge (Brudevold-Newman et al., literacy, the program improved school 2023).12 B. Proven and promising approaches from other contexts relevant for Kenya Research from similar contexts suggests three key strategies: → Reducing the direct and indirect costs of likely to be out of school and not working schooling through cash transfers, in-kind (Ajayi and Koussoube, 2024; Evans, Mendez support, and school feeding programs has Acosta and Yuan, 2024).13,14 been highly effective in improving education outcomes and delaying marriage—particularly → Comprehensive economic empowerment critical given that girls from non-wealthy programs integrating skills training, grants, households in Kenya are three times more and mentorship have consistently increased 10 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya employment and earnings, as demonstrated in agency in Côte d’Ivoire and Tanzania (Shah et Liberia (Adoho et al. 2014). 15 Providing market al., 2023; Boulhane et al., 2024).17,18 Meanwhile, information on employment and training has legal reforms banning child marriage and helped young women in the Republic of Congo promoting gender equality in employment enter higher-paying, male-dominated trades have improved adolescent girls’ economic (Gassier, Rouanet, and Traore 2022). 16 opportunities in Ethiopia and Rwanda but require strong enforcement to be effective → Community engagement programs targeting (Koski et al., 2018; Wilson, 2022; Collin and gender norms have successfully increased girls’ Talbot, 2023).19,20,21 C. Priority actions for Kenya Supporting school-to-work transitions through: Strengthening policy implementation through: → Integrating market-aligned technical and life → Expanding childcare services support skills training (identified as a key gap in WBL assessment) → Enhanced career guidance and job placement → Enhancing mechanisms for implementing services, given only 12.2% of girls ages 15-19 existing gender equality laws are working → Developing comprehensive support systems for → Tailoring approaches to county-specific young women entrepreneurs economic opportunities and constraints → Ensuring policies address specific needs across Leveraging digital infrastructure by: counties, with particular attention to northern and northeastern regions where vulnerability → Building on Kenya’s mobile money ecosystem rates are highest to expand financial inclusion for adolescent girls Adapting interventions to context by: → Addressing the gender gap in internet usage → Designing county-specific approaches that (25.5% of adolescent girls vs 39.1% of respond to local cultural norms, economic adolescent boys ages 15-19) structures, and existing infrastructure → Developing digital skills training to increase → Differentiating strategies for rural and urban smartphone adoption among young women settings, including specific attention to informal urban settlements → Customizing digital approaches for both urban and rural contexts → Targeting additional support to the most vulnerable groups, particularly girls from poor households who face multiple disadvantages 11 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya Conclusion Kenya stands at a critical juncture in addressing adolescent girls’ pathways to prosperity. With strong educational foundations already in place, the country has a unique opportunity to expand from educational foundations to comprehensive empowerment that addresses economic and social dimensions simultaneously. By focusing on the areas highlighted in this brief—school-to-work transitions, digital inclusion, policy implementation, and context- specific interventions—Kenya can unlock the potential of its adolescent girls while addressing persistent disparities across geographic, gender, and socioeconomic lines. The economic returns of such investments are substantial, not only for the girls themselves but for the country’s broader development trajectory. Addressing these challenges requires coordinated action across multiple sectors, with interventions tailored to the diverse contexts within Kenya and particular attention to the most vulnerable populations. 12 Pathways to prosperity for adolescent girls in Kenya Endnotes 1 Throughout this publication, Africa refers to the 48 countries in Sub- 13 Ajayi, Kehinde F., and Estelle Koussoubé. 2024. Pathways to Prosperity Saharan Africa, based on the World Bank’s regional classification. for Adolescent Girls in Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. 2 Ajayi, Kehinde F., and Estelle Koussoubé. 2024. Pathways to Prosperity 14 Evans, David K., Amina Mendez Acosta, and Fei Yuan. 2024. “Girls’ for Adolescent Girls in Africa. Washington, DC: World Bank. Education at Scale.” World Bank Research Observer 39 (1): 47–74. https:// doi.org/10.1093/wbro /lkad002. 3 The WBL 2024 legal frameworks index assesses formal laws and regulations across ten areas including mobility, workplace, pay, 15 Adoho, Franck, Shubha Chakravarty, Dala T. Korkoyah Jr., Mattias marriage, and assets. The supportive frameworks index evaluates Lundberg, and Afia Tasneem. 2014. “The Impact of an Adolescent Girls the implementation mechanisms, such as enforcement procedures, Employment Program: The EPAG Project in Liberia.” Policy Research government support services, and monitoring systems that help translate Working Paper 6832, World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge. legal rights into practice. worldbank.org/handle/10986/17718. 4 Brudevold-Newman, Andrew. 2021. “Expanding Access to Secondary 16 Gassier, Marine, Lea Rouanet, and Lacina Traore. 2022. “Addressing Education: Evidence from a Fee Reduction and Capacity Expansion Policy Gender-Based Segregation through Information: Evidence from a in Kenya.” Economics of Education Review 83 (August): 102127. https:// Randomized Experiment in the Republic of Congo.” Policy Research doi.org/10.1016/j.econedurev .2021.102127. Working Paper 9934, World Bank, Washington, DC. 5 Mason-Jones, Amanda J., Marlon Freeman, Theo Lorenc, Tina Rawal, 17 Shah, Manisha, Jennifer Seager, Joao Montalvao, and Markus Goldstein. Shalini Bassi, and Monika Arora. 2023. “Can Peer-Based Interventions 2022. “Two Sides of Gender: Sex, Power, and Adolescence.” Policy Improve Adolescent Sexual and Reproductive Health Outcomes? An Research Working Paper 10072, World Bank, Washington, DC. Overview of Reviews.” Journal of Adolescent Health 73 (6): 975–82. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jadohealth.2023 .05.035. 18 Boulhane, Othmane, Claire Boxho, Désiré Kanga, Estelle Koussoubé, and Léa Rouanet. 2024. “Empowering Adolescent Girls through Safe Spaces 6 Harari, Mariaflavia. 2019. “Women’s Inheritance Rights and Bargaining and Accompanying Measures in Côte d’Ivoire.” Policy Research Working Power: Evidence from Kenya.” Economic Development and Cultural Paper 10721, World Bank, Washington, DC. Change 68 (1): 189–238. https://doi.org/10.1086/700630. 19 Koski, Alissa, Erin C. Strumpf, Jay S. Kaufman, John Frank, Jody 7 Austrian, Karen, Erica Soler-Hampejsek, Jere R. Behrman, Jean Digitale, Heymann, and Arijit Nandi. 2018. “The Impact of Eliminating Primary Natalie Jackson Hachonda, Maximillian Bweupe, and Paul C. Hewett. School Tuition Fees on Child Marriage in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Quasi- 2020. “The Impact of the Adolescent Girls Empowerment Program Experimental Evaluation of Policy Changes in 8 Countries.” PLOS ONE 13 (AGEP) on Short and Long Term Social, Economic, Education and Fertility (5): e0197928. https://doi.org /10.1371PLOS/journal.pone.0197928. 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Economics 160 (January): 102950. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jdeveco.2022.102950. 9 Austrian, Karen, Erica Soler-Hampejsek, Beth Kangwana, Nicole Maddox, Maryama Diaw, Yohannes D. Wado, Benta Abuya, Eva Muluve, Faith Mbushi, and Hassan Mohammed. 2022. “Impacts of Multisectoral Cash Plus Programs on Marriage and Fertility after 4 Years in Pastoralist Kenya: A Randomized Trial.” Journal of Adolescent Health 70 (6): 885–94. 10 Kangwana, Beth, Karen Austrian, Erica Soler-Hampejsek, Nicole Maddox, Rachel J. Sapire, Yohannes Dibaba Wado, Benta Abuya, Eva Muluve, Faith Mbushi, Joy Koech, and John A. Maluccio. 2022. “Impacts of multisectoral cash plus programs after four years in an urban informal settlement: Adolescent Girls Initiative-Kenya (AGI-K) randomized trial.” PLOS ONE 17 (2): e0262858. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0262858. 11 Hicks, Joan Hamory, Michael Kremer, Isaac Mbiti, and Edward Miguel. 2016. Evaluating the Impact of Vocational Education Vouchers on Out-of- School Youth in Kenya. 3ie Impact Evaluation Report 37. New Delhi, India: International Institute for Impact Evaluation. https://doi.org/10.23846/ ow1064. 12 Brudevold-Newman, Andrew, Maddalena Honorati, Pamela Jakiela, Owen Ozier, and Gerald Ipapa. 2023. “A Firm of One’s Own: Experimental Evidence on Credit Constraints and Occupational Choice.” Working Paper 646, Center for Global Development, Washington, DC. https://www.cgdev. org/sites/default /files/firm-ones-own-experimental-evidence-credit- constraints-and -occupational-choice.pdf. 13 Acknowledgment This brief was developed through a collaboration between the World Bank, the Center for Global Development, and the Population Council. The team included Nelsy Affoum, Kehinde Ajayi, Karen Austrian, Evalin Karijo, Estelle Koussoubé, Raffaella Pizzamiglio, Clemence Pougue Biyong, and Lea Rouanet. The team gratefully acknowledges the generous support of the Global Financing Facility for Women, Children and Adolescents (GFF). openknowledge.worldbank.org