SARL AOPTEIONVE SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM THE POTENTIAL OF PRODUCTIVE SAFETY NETS FOR INCLUSIVE AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH A gender lens to the Koulikoro Pilot in Mali Authors April 2024 Anne Hilger Kalilou Sylla SUMMARY In Mali, although boys and girls have comparable levels of human capital, girls are less able to benefit from investments in it. Women are severely underrepresented in Mali's labor force: their participation rate in 2022 stood at 50.4 percent, compared to a rate of 80.3 percent for men, and has fallen since 1990, with the greatest inequalities seen in skilled jobs. Traditionally, many safety net programs have engaged with women primarily in relation to their roles as mothers and caregivers. A stronger focus on household bargaining constraints and on women's economic inclusion could increase the return on such investments. Direct monetary transfers to women, conditional transfers for education, and comprehensive productive safety net packages have the potential to raise household incomes, redistribute resources, and promote social equity - ultimately contributing to social stability. This technical paper explores the potential and feasibility of introducing a productive safety nets program for inclusive and sustained economic development in Mali. It uses a gender lens to discuss approaches that aim to maximize the impact of these investments, recognizing that this requires a strategic approach to address gender inequality. First, this technical paper provides an overview of the past use of productive safety nets in Mali, then looks at the economic case for productive safety nets, and their potential to enhance the social and economic inclusion of women in Mali, based on a review of evidence from studies. The technical paper then outlines lessons learned from the country's Jigisemejiri ('Tree of Hope') program and the expansion of gender-targeted transfers in the Koulikoro region to women as beneficiaries. It concludes with options for introducing a productive safety nets program in Mali to support women's economic empowerment, which is essential to unleash the country's productive potential. 1 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM ABBEVATIONS AND ACRONYMS ASPIRE Atlas of Social Protection Indicators of Resilience and Equity CFAF Franc de la communaut6 financiere en Afrique (Franc of the Financial Community of Africa) ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EHCVM Enqu6te Harmonis6e sur les Conditions de Vie des Menages (Harmonized Survey on Household Living Conditions) FEWSNET Famine Early Warning Systems Network GBV Gender-based violence IMF International Monetary Fund LIC Low-income country PGTMU Programme Gouvernemental de Transferts Monetaires d'Urgence (Government Emergency Cash Transfer Program) PMT Proxy means-test PPP Purchasing power parity RAMED Regime d'Assistance Medicale (Medical Assistance Plan) RSU Registre Social Unifie (Unified social registry) SA Social Assistance SASPP Sahel Adaptive Social Protection Program SSF Social Security Fund TASC Technical Assistance to Strengthen Capabilities UN United Nations UNHCR United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees UNICEF United Nations International Children's Emergency Fund USD US-Dollar WAEMU West African Economic and Monetary Union WB World Bank WFP World Food Programme WHO World Health Organization 2 S ARL AOPTE ION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM TABLE OF CONTENTS SU M M A RY ................................................................................................................................................................... 1 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS ...................................................................................................................... 2 LIST OF FIGURES AND TABLE .............................................................................................................................. 4 1. Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 5 2. Use of productive safety nets in Mali ................................................................................................................ 7 3. The potential benefits of social safety nets: a review of evidence...............................................................9 3.1. The potential benefits of productive safety nets for women...................................................................................9 3.2. The potential benefits of productive safety nets to protect against shocks and build resilience...............11 4. A case study on productive safety nets in Mali: Jigis6m6jiri and the Koulikoro pilot.............................13 4 .1. T h e im p a ct o f J ig ise m bjiri ('T re e o f H o p e ') in Ma i .................................................................................................... 13 4.2. The Koulikoro pilot: Testing payment of transfer to women ................................................................................15 4.3. M ain findings of the Koulikoro im pact evaluation.................................................................................................... 16 4 .4 . Le sso n s le a rn e d ................................................................................................................................................................ 18 5. Options for productive safety nets in Mal ....................................................................................................... 19 5.1. What would it cost to provide a comprehensive productive safety net program?..........................................19 5.2. What could a future social safety net program in Mali look like?......................................................................20 6. References ....................................................................................................................................................... 23 S ARL AOPTE ION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM LT OF FIGRS AND BOXES Figure 1: Social protection spending inMali ............................................................................................... 7 Figure 2: Coverage of largest social protection tools in Mali (% of quintile).............................................8 Figure 3: Energy Subsidies as a Share (%) of Market Income per Decile in Mali, 2014............................9 Figure 4: How have Jigis6m6jiri transfer been spent?..............................................................................14 Figure 5: Koulikoro Pilot InterventionCommunes ................................................................................... 16 Figure 6: Proportion of households spending the transfer on a particular category, according to reports to women in male-recipienthousehold . ......................................................................................17 Figure 7: Tools for productive safety nets in Mali and suitable application conditions..........................22 Box 1: Productive Safety Nets as Part of Social Assistance.......................................................................6 Box 2: Energy Subsidies in the Context of Social Protection....................................................................8 Box 3: Productive Social Safety Nets I Evidence from Niger................................................................... 12 Box 4: Koulikoro Pilot Communes and Household Characteristics......................................................... 15 Box 5: Loss and Damage Fund and Adaptive SocialProtection ............................................................. 21 The SASPP Technical Paper series collection comprises documents released expediently to ensure prompt availability within our community of practice, aiming to foster engagement and disseminate knowledge swiftly. Please be mindful that, for this purpose, the material has not undergone extensive proofreading, and minor typos may be present. Your understanding of this expedited release is appreciated. 4 SIAHL ADAPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM 1. ntroduction <. Male, Transfer Pilot, Koulikoro region Low-income households often find themselves caught in a vicious cycle of poverty because of a critical lack of assets and spare money. This cycle is often perpetuated in economies that have a large informal sector and where households lack mechanisms for the accumulation of assets. As a result, households may respond to short-term risks by making long-term sacrifices, such as pulling children out of school. Power imbalances within households can lead to sub-optimal outcomes for those with less power, typically women and children (Hanna and Karlan, 2017). In a world of perfect credit, insurance, and labor markets, productive safety nets might not be needed to protect households from shocks. Even in advanced economies, however, social protection programs are in place because these markets are not perfect and cannot be relied upon to close the gender gap in incomes, assets, and opportunities. Productive safety nets are now found in 45 countries across the African continent-more than three times as many as at the end of the 1990s (Bodewig et al., 2020). Safety nets' adaptability, that is, increasing coverage horizontally by reaching more households and vertically by increasing allowances, has increased their popularity when shocks such as pandemics, conflict, and forced displacement become more frequent, interconnected, and devastating (World Bank, 2020). Governments mobilized them to help 100 million people across Africa cope with the economic and social disruptions of the COVID-19 pandemic. In Mali, for example, the Government's own emergency program (Programme Gouvernemental de Transferts Mon6taires d'Urgence, PGTMU) provided temporary support to almost 400,000 households-one of the largest social assistance responses in the country's history. Around CFAF 45 billion were mobilized, financed by the National Budget (Minist6re de L'6conomie et des Finances, 2021). At present, in Mali, shocks have internally displaced over 390,000 persons. In addition, it is projected that from June to August 2024, 1,372,224 individuals will be facing severe food insecurity. 5 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM Box 1: Productive Safety Nets as Part of Social Assistance Social protection is understood as all public and private initiatives that provide income or consumption support to people that protects them against livelihood risks and enhances their rights as citizens (Carter et al., 2019). Social protection is commonly split into contributory interventions (social insurance) and non-contributory interventions (social assistance). Examples of social insurance include unemployment insurance, or old age pensions. These programs focus on the formal sector though recently, initiatives to offer insurance schemes to informal workers have emerged. Social assistance interventions focus on the poorest and most vulnerable populations, providing income and consumption support and enabling the poorest to build their assets and human capital and become productive members of society. In the Sahel, safety net programs, combining direct transfers and behavioral change communication, are the most common types of social assistance. Productive safety nets include livelihood or income-generating components to expand market opportunities for beneficiaries. Their productive economic inclusion packages complement basic consumption support via direct transfers with a holistic package of services, such as coaching and group formation for life skills training, savings groups, workshops, micro-entrepreneurship training and lump-sum grants or asset transfers for the creation of micro-enterprises (Bowen et al., 2020). They reduce extreme poverty by combining interventions to stabilize consumption, increase and diversify incomes, build and protect assets, and improve food security (3ie, 2023). Productive safety nets are being deployed in country contexts where there are significant gender inequalities. In Mali, women are not able to live up to their potential, which restricts the economic potential of half the population. Although boys and girls have similar levels of human capital, girls are less able to benefit from investments in such capital. Mali's ranking of 155th out of 170 countries on the 2021 UNDP Gender Inequality Index (Tucker, 2023) reflects disparities in women's access to health, education, and representation in decision-making processes. Women are also severely underrepresented in Mali's labor force: their participation rate in 2022 stood at 50.4 percent, compared to a rate of 80.3 percent for men' (EMOP, 2023), and has fallen since 1990, with the greatest inequalities seen in skilled jobs (Tucker, 2023). Traditionally, many safety net programs have engaged with women primarily in relation to their roles as mothers and caregivers. A stronger focus on household bargaining constraints and on women's economic inclusion could increase the return on such investments. Direct transfers to women, conditional transfers for education, and comprehensive safety net packages can uplift household income, redistribute resources, and promote social equity, potentially fostering social peace (Hanna and Karlan, 2017). 1 The gap between male and female labor force participation rates is higher than the average for low-income countries (58.7 percent and 75.3 percent, respectively) and the second highest in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (Tucker, 2023). 6 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM This technical paper explores the potential and feasibility of introducing a productive safety nets program for inclusive and sustained economic development in Mali. It uses a gender lens to discuss approaches that aim to maximize the impact of these investments, recognizing that this requires a strategic approach to address gender inequality. First, this technical paper provides an overview of the past use of productive safety nets in Mali, then looks at the economic case for productive safety nets, and their potential to enhance the social and economic inclusion of women in Mali, based on a review of evidence from studies. The technical paper then outlines lessons learned from the country's Jigisemejiri ('Tree of Hope') program and the expansion of gender-targeted transfers in the Koulikoro region to women as beneficiaries. It concludes with options for introducing a productive safety nets program in Mali to support women's economic empowerment, which is essential to unleash the country's productive potential. 2. Use of productive safety nets n Ma Mali has harnessed social protection tools for more than a decade to address chronic poverty, lean season food insecurity, and, more recently, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The following provides an overview of the use of productive safety nets in Mali. Its social protection expenditure has more than doubled since the 2012 sociopolitical crisis, reaching USD 207 million in 2020 - an increase driven largely by higher transfers and grants. In particular, the Malian Social Security Fund (SSF) has expanded significantly since 2012, providing old age, survivors, disability, maternity pensions and health insurance for public servants and the military. Figure 1(a) depicts the increase in total annual social protection expenditure over time. Figure 1: Social protection spending in Moli '0420-~ .%r Sources: Mali BOOST, ASPIRE, and staff calculations. Note: Spending refers to spending on benefits and administrative cost. Annual SA expenditure is calculated by aggregating program- level data for the most recent available year between 2015 and 2021. Social assistance expenditure (omitting social insurance) amounts to 0.6 percent of GDP, which remains well below the regional average for Africa of 1.6 percent. Figure 1(b) summarizes the country's public spending on social assistance programs as a percentage of its GDP, with all social assistance 7 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM (SA) accounting for 0.6 percent of GDP - a level similar to that seen in Benin and Niger (0.4 percent), but below the levels seen in Burkina Faso (1.4 percent) and Senegal (0.9 percent)2. Figure 2 shows that the largest existing social protection tools (monetary transfers and food and in-kind transfers), are progressive in their coverage. In all, 28.5 percent of those in the poorest quintile (01) report having received food and in-kind transfers, compared to only 14.7 percent of those in the richest quintile. This does not hold true for school feeding or public works programs, which cover people across the income distribution. In addition to these social protection tools, governments sometimes consider energy subsidies as a social policy tool to support the population. However, Box 2 highlights that these subsidies end up mainly benefitting nonpoor households - reforming energy subsidies could potentially release fiscal space to allow more cost-effective social spendings that are better-targeted and pro-poor. Figure 2: Coverage of largest social protection tools in Mali (% afquintile) 15 04 2 4 -~K Q4 17 Source: ASPIRE Box 2: Energy Subsidies in the Context of Social Protection Energy subsidies, such as electricity subsidies, are a common tool considered by many governments as a policy of supporting their industrial sector, and sometimes as a policy tool to support the population (affordable consumption of basic utilities). However, these subsidies are generally untargeted and end up benefiting mainly nonpoor households. An analysis of the distributional aspects of gas and electricity subsidies in Mali shows that they are regressive, which can partly be explained by the fact that domestic energy services remain not affordable for the poorest. As a result, only the few better-off individuals with access to these services benefit from the subsidies. In the case of electricity, for example, only 27 percent of the population, who are overall nonpoor individuals, had access in 2014. In contrast, social protection tools rely on strong targeting mechanisms, ensuring that benefits reach the poorest and most vulnerable. 2 Data points: Mali= 2016-2021; Benin = 2017-2020; Niger = 2015-2017; Burkina Faso and Senegal = 2015. Source: Aspire, World Bank Data. 8 SARL AOTTION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM Figure 3: Energy Subsidies as a Share (%) of Market Income per Docile in Mali, 2014 Source: Houns, Coulibaly, and Sanoh (2019) 3. The potential benefits of soci safety nets: a review of evidence Impact evaluations of social safety nets have taken place across the Sahel, including in Mali. This infoqraphic summarizes the overall results of rigorous impact evaluations conducted on adaptive social protection programs, which can include social safety nets, productive inclusion, shock response and other social protection programs across the Sahel. It shows safety nets are connectors and multipliers for local economies, equality and social cohesion, and future generations. It also shows that productive safety nets can have both immediate and long-lasting benefits for households, for human capital and for the broader economic ecosystem. 3.1. The potential benefits of productive safety nets for women Productive safety net programs can boost school enrollment and attendance rates (Bergstrom and Ozler, 2021), with one study finding that close to one third of programs have had positive effects on learning after a few years of implementation (Garcia and Saavedra, 2022). A strong focus on the educational advancement of Mali's women and girls offers tremendous potential. Only around 8 percent of women over 25 have completed a full secondary education, compared to 15.5 percent of men (World Bank, 2024.). This gap extends to adult literacy, where the gender gap stands at 18.4 - far higher than the 13-point average for sub-Saharan Africa, hampering women's access to services, employment and digital tools (World Bank, 2024.). Mali's Jigis6m6jiri program is having an impact in this area, with an increase in the likelihood that adolescents who are in school will move up to the next grade (Hidrobo et al., 2019). Safety net packages that keep adolescent girls in school can help to delay sexual debut and reduce child marriage and adolescent motherhood, with wider benefits for the economy. The Social Cash Transfer Program in Malawi and the Child Support Grant in South Africa, for example, have been found to delay sexual debut amongst adolescents aged 13 to 19. According to the 2018 Mali Demographic and Health Survey, 54% of women aged 20-24 were married before turning 18, and 16% before the age of 9 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM 15 (UNICEF, 2025). The loss of women's earnings because of their lower educational attainment following early marriage today is estimated for Mali and Niger together at over US$350 million (in purchasing power parity terms). Targeted interventions, such as conditional transfers, can alleviate the economic constraints on girls' education, with wider benefits for the economy. For example, reducing child marriage in Mali and Niger in 2015 could have generated up to US$1.6 billion in annual benefits by 2030 (PPP) (L6pez-Calix et al., 2018). Productive safety nets can improve child health, with increases in income improving health spending (Markhof et al., 2021) and the adoption of preventive health practices (TASC Project, 2021) among poor and vulnerable households. Linking beneficiaries to health services has been shown to have a positive impact on the utilization of health facilities for antenatal care, and for maternal and child health services (TASC Project, 2021). For example, Mali's Regime d'Assistance M6dicale (RAMED) has aimed to provide free health care to the poorest 5 percent of Mali's population since 2011- around 600,000 people in all - benefiting those who once had to rely on the goodwill of relatives or health providers to cover their healthcare costs (Tour and Escot, 2023). However, the full operationalization of RAMED faces some challenges (World Bank, 2024). For example, a qualitative study of Jigis6m6jiri program beneficiaries has found that most beneficiaries never received the paper card they need to access free health services because of coordination issues, and even those who did receive the card were often refused free services, with clinics claiming that they were not reimbursed by the Government for services delivered as part of RAMED. These results highlight the implementation challenges that can hamper the impact of interventions and are sobering, given that beneficiaries cited maternal and child health care as major concerns, and the cost of health care as the main obstacle to accessing health services. The increased income provided by direct transfers has a strong impact on food security and nutrition, particularly when they are paid to women who tend to oversee household food consumption (TASC Project, 2021). Food accounts for a major share of household spending for those in poverty, and direct transfers enable them to increase the quantity of food consumed, while improving the quality and diversity of their diet (FAO et al., 2019). For example, an emergency conditional transfer program in Niger for children aged 6 to 24 months increased both their meal frequency and food diversity, while improving their weight and weight-for height (Onwuchekwa et al., 2021). And in Mali, the Jigis6m6jiri program has had a positive impact on food security and diversity, and has, in the past, included the direct provision of nutritional supplements (Hidrobo et al., 2019). Enhancing women's economic and social inclusion can yield significant benefits for both economic growth and social cohesion. Mali's current underutilization of half its human resources is a significant obstacle to leveraging the potential demographic dividend of its young and dynamic population. Direct transfer programs have also helped to shift perceptions of women within their households and communities. The scale of this shift may, however, depend on the strength of entrenched gender norms (ODI et al., 2021). In Mali, understanding the impact of direct transfer programs on perceptions of women is in its early stages, given that transfers have only recently started to reach women as beneficiaries. However, some promising signs have emerged from a pilot approach that has extended payments to women in communities in Koulikoro region in some cases, rather than men, as shown in Section 4. 10 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM 3.2. The potential benefits of productive safety nets to protect against shocks and build resilience Shock-responsive transfers are working to protect households across the Sahel in the absence of comprehensive and effective financial, credit and insurance markets. Data from the 2018-2019 WAEMU harmonized household surveys show that 65 percent of households across the Sahel experienced at least one shock (idiosyncratic, climate-related, or conflict). The poorest and most vulnerable households are most likely to resort to coping mechanisms such as reducing current access to food, education, and health care, which are likely to sacrifice future consumption and access to basic services (e.g., increasing credit, selling productive assets, etc.) (Brunelin, Ouedraogo and Tandon, 2020). Having strong safety nets systems in place before a crisis has been shown to be critical to ensure that households do not resort to negative coping strategies (SASPP, 2023b). Burkina Faso's Social Safety Net project, for example, provided shock-responsive transfers to more than 99,000 recipients in areas affected by food insecurity during the 2022 lean season through the vertical expansion of existing recipients of the country's regular transfers. In Senegal, shock-responsive transfer programs have been mobilized to address overlapping crises triggered by food inflation and growing regional instability and insecurity that left more than 1.4 million people facing a potential food crisis in July 2022 - almost double the numbers seen in the previous year. As noted, Mali's PGTMU was mobilized in response to the COVID-19 pandemic to provide additional support to ease the worst impacts of lost incomes for the most vulnerable households (SASPP, 2023b). Productive safety nets have helped to build household resilience that can help to close the gaps in asset accumulation, as confirmed by the impacts of economic inclusion programs. These include group training and coaching; community-based savings groups; community outreach on social norms and aspirations; life skills training; training in micro-entrepreneurship; market access; and grants. They aim not only to increase productivity and incomes, but also to support income smoothing and diversification, and have proved to be highly cost-effective. In Niger and Senegal, for example, such packages increased consumption 18 months after beneficiaries exited the program by amounts that exceeded the program costs (see Box 4 for more details on the Niger program). In fact, the impacts on beneficiary household consumption were at least 1.2 to 2.1 times higher than the costs, demonstrating strong economic returns and reinforcing the investment case (SASPP, 2023b). Productive measures helped households to diversify their economic activities and investments in non-agricultural income generating activities, driving strong income growth, and paid to women beneficiaries, have also been shown to have a positive effect on dimension of women's empowerment. 11 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM Box 3: Productive Social Safety Nets I Evidence from Niger The government of Niger has engaged in an in-depth impact evaluation of productive safety nets elements. All beneficiaries (more than 90 percent women) received direct transfers and a core set of measures consisting of coaching, group savings facilitation, entrepreneurship training and improved access to markets. The evaluation then tested the impact and compared the cost- effectiveness of three packages: a capital package that included a lump-sum grant in addition to the core set, a psychosocial package that included psychosocial components (life skills training and a community sensitization on aspirations and social norms) in addition to the core set, and a full package that included all components. All three productive packages improved household consumption, while food insecurity significantly decreased, and impacts were sustained 18 months after the intervention. Households were able to spend more on items that they needed, both food and nonfood. While the impacts were seen for all three packages, the full package delivered the strongest results: 18 months post-intervention, beneficiaries of the full package had increased their consumption by 15 percent. This result was due to large increases in revenues from household off-farm businesses, as well as from livestock and agriculture. Impacts were particularly strong on off-farm businesses-indicating that women had been able to expand non- agricultural activities. All three sets of productive measures had strong impacts on beneficiaries' business revenues, by 49 percent -102 percent 18 months post-intervention. Women spent more time on their income-generating activities and were able to focus on more profitable non- agricultural businesses. Across all three packages, households developed new income sources. This is noteworthy because diversification is an important factor in building household resilience. Source: Bossuroy et al. (2022) Is the expansion of productive safety nets - including direct transfers - a viable option for Mali and for increasing the economic inclusion of its women? An exploration of the country's social protection context and the findings from a pilot program in Koulikoro region that has paid transfers directly to women offers some insights into their potential. 12 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM 4. A case study on productive safety nets in Mali igserneiri and the Koulikoro pilot In some countries, differential and positive outcomes are triggered when a woman receives a transfer. In other countries, however (including some of Mali's closest neighbors), the gender of the recipient does not seem to influence outcomes in terms of, for example, child food security or nutritional diversity3. This section explores the potential for - and feasibility of - paying productive safety net transfers to women in Mali, starting with a review of its flagship social protection program, Jigis6m6jiri. It then outlines preliminary findings of a recent randomized controlled trial (RCT) impact evaluation (Hilger et al., 2023) on the payment of transfers to women in Koulikoro region. 4.1. The impact of Jigis6mejiri ('Tree of Hope') in Mali The Jigisdmbjiri program has been the cornerstone of Mali's social safety net system for the past 10 years, aiming to reduce poverty and enhance human capital accumulation. The Jigis6mejiri program, supported by the World Bank's Emergency Safety Nets project, was a social assistance program that comprised mainly monetary transfers, but also labor-intensive public works, and income generating activities. The Emergency Safety Nets project was a World Bank financed project, active for 10 years, from 2013 until 2023. It provided direct transfers and accompanying measures to 103,541 households (about 3 percent of the population); labor intensive public works to 14,600 individuals; and grants to implement income generating activities to 29,997 households. Direct transfer payments were targeted to the household head, a male in most cases. Labor-intensive public works were based on self-selection of an individual in the household; income- generating activities were targeted at direct transfer beneficiaries with a particular focus on woman- headed households. The Emergency Safety Nets project also supported the establishment of a social registry, which now contains data and information on nearly 1.2 million households and is used by several programs as a common targeting tool. Beneficiaries of the Jigisdmbjiri program have increased their overall consumption by between 10 percent and 20 percent (SASPP, 2023a). An impact evaluation of the Jigis6m6jiri program, conducted through baseline (2014-2015), midline (2016), and endline surveys (2018), has investigated the differences between households that participated early in the program and those that joined later, focusing on its impacts and the factors that have driven them, including changes in behavior, knowledge and practices4. Food consumption accounted for a large share of total consumption at baseline (80 3 In West Africa in particular, paying benefits to women does not necessarily seem to increase food expenditure in relation to children (compared with payments to men), which contrasts with, for example, results in South American countries. This could be the result of agreements within very poor households that cash should be spent predominantly on food. It could also be the result of cultural norms that expect men, as well as women, to spend money on food. See, for example, de Walque (2016) and Goldstein (2021). 4 The findings confirm the benefits over time, with an eventual levelling off any differences between the early and late treatment groups (Hidrobo et al., 2019). 13 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM percent), and total consumption for both food and non-food consumption increased in both the early and late treatment groups, with little statistical difference between them over time. More than two-thirds of all households reported spending all the transfer within a week of receiving it, with the bulk of the transfer (62 percent) spent on food consumption (particularly staple goods) (Hidrobo et al., 2019), followed by spending on health and on livestock (Figure 4). Figure 4: How have Jigisemejri transfer been spent? F I~r - L - i a. d ' , r ) p Source: SASPP (2023a) Jigis6m6jiri program beneficiaries are less likely to be poor after receiving the program. At baseline, 87 percent of households participating in the program were living below Mali's national poverty line, falling to 82 percent at midline and 63 percent by endline - an overall reduction of 24 percentage points (SASPP, 2023a). Again, the late treatment group had caught up with the early treatment group by endline (Hidrobo et al., 2019). At midline, Jigis6m6jiri early treatment households had seen a 35 percent reduction in food insecurity and there were discernible improvements in diets by endline, with increased consumption of multiple food groups, including pulses, vegetables, fruits, meat and fish, and dairy (Hidrobo et al., 2019). In addition, beneficiaries were 11 percent more likely to buy more than 50 kilograms of cereals (SASP, 2023a). Given that there were no differences at endline between early and late treatment groups, this could suggest that the impacts on poverty, food security and dietary diversity were sustained for both groups through to the endline (Hidrobo et al., 2019). Beneficiaries of the program are far more likely to invest in productive assets. At midline, the early treatment group was 7 percentage points more likely to invest in small animals and 11 percentage points more likely to invest in large livestock than the late treatment group. By endline, again, these differences had evened out. Similarly, households in the early treatment group had a value of assets at midline that was 23 percent higher than the late treatment group, with this difference driven by investments in livestock and transport (Hidrobo et al., 2019). Overall, Jigis6m6jiri beneficiaries are 46 percent more likely to invest in assets such as livestock or non-agricultural equipment (SASPP, 2023a). As well as increasing investment in productive assets, receiving the transfers has been shown to reduce the self-reported stress of household decisionmakers, improve their self-esteem and trigger a modest increase in their levels of patience. This suggests that they may ease the cognitive burden that hampers decision-making on asset accumulation and longer-term investments (Hidrobo et al., 2023). The program has also been found to have an impact on the prospects for future generations. 14 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM There is a 56 percent increase in the chances that an in-school adolescent will move up to the next grade (SASPP, 2023a). 4.2. The Koulikoro pilot: Testing payment of transfer to women One recent development has been the testing of the delivery of direct transfers to women as well as men in Koulikoro region, with an early impact evaluation offering insights into the outcomes (Hilger et al., 2023)5. This has been a new direction for Mali, where transfers have traditionally been received by the (male) head of household and there were initial concerns that such a shift might lead to the 'misuse' of funds and disrupt household peace. The RCT in Koulikoro randomly allocated transfers to either the male head of household or his first wife - a way to ease concerns about perceived challenges to traditional gender norms. The recipients - 40 percent of them women; 60 percent of them men - have received around CFAF 15,000 (approximately US$28) per month, paid quarterly. Each woman who has been randomly selected as a recipient has also been designated to receive a cellphone and SIM to enable her to receive the direct transfers6. Box 4: Koulikoro Pilot Communes and Household Characteristics (see Figure 5). Location: Three cercles in Koulikoro Region - Kati, Kolokani and Nara Qualitative evaluation: February 2022, based on 15 focus group discussions, 7 key informant interviews and 5 in-depth interviews. Quantitative evaluation: May-June 2022, based on short interviews with one woman and one man in 641 households where the beneficiary's gender was randomized. Most targeted households grow crops and/or raise livestock, and their average total daily consumption amounts to CFAF 977. They tend to be larger than the national average for rural areas (6.11 individuals compared to 5.8) and to have more children than non-targeted households. Almost 80 percent have children aged 6 to 16. 73 percent of the women in targeted households do not work outside the home. Household heads have extremely low levels of education - less than 1 year on average. Children have slightly higher levels of education, but school fees do not account for a large share of household expenditures and rates of schooling are still low: only 37 percent of school-aged girls and 38 percent of school aged-boys attend school - about 10 percentage points lower than for households above the proxy means-tested threshold. 5 This initiative was informed by a poverty-mapping exercise across 8 communes and 229 villages. The poorest households have been selected based on a proxy means-test (PMT), with the Government setting out the commune-level quotas to determine the threshold PMT score. For the purposes of randomization, in cases in the RSU where there is a female head of household, but she has a husband in the home, we consider that the household is male headed. The random selection of beneficiaries has faced setbacks due to local agents occasionally misinterpreting the 40 percent quota for women as a guideline rather than a product of randomization. The use of household quotas with varying PMT cut-off points complicated the selection process. 6 Only 64 percent of households own a phone, and many women have no phone at all. The provision of phones for women has ensured that 80 percent of female recipient households have received one, but these phones have been claimed by men in around 10 percent of cases. 15 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM Figure 5: Koulikoro Pilot Intervcntion Comnunes Source: Hilger et al., 2023 4.3. Main findings of the Koulikoro impact evaluation Qualitative research confirms a favorable context for women as direct beneficiaries and increases in their awareness of the program because of the transfers (Hilger et al., 2023)7. Interviews confirm that, in line with prevailing social norms, men tend to purchase cereals and school fees, while women pay for vegetables and some child expenses. Women are, increasingly, contributing more money, particularly in poor households. Paying direct transfers to women increases their awareness of the program to close to 100 percent, a significant increase compared to the 93 percent awareness among women in households where the direct beneficiary is a man. It also improves their understanding of how the transfer is utilized, with a notable 18-point rise from 66 percent. In addition, while men and women are equally likely to report their household getting a transfer (about 80 percent of households), both are more likely to report it if women receive the transfer. Yet the qualitative evaluation also finds that the intervention has - to date - changed only one aspect of the economic empowerment of women and girls: their knowledge of resources. Giving resources to women is not consistent with social norms, but women are now taking on some traditionally 'male' responsibilities, including spending on education. Qualitative surveys suggest a general acceptance of women as the nominal direct beneficiaries8, and concerns that a change in the recipient would disrupt household peace has not been borne out by the evaluation. However, men still tend to dominate the process, including the withdrawal of money, and many women beneficiaries report handing the bulk of the transfer to their husbands. The quantitative evaluation shows that when women receive the payments, there is a significant increase in reported spending on education (by 10 points) and soap (by 13 points). Their husbands, 7 The first payments reached households in November/ December 2021. The testing of cash transfers for women in Koulikoro was partially disrupted by coups in 2020 and 2021, ECOWAS sanctions in response to security concerns and the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as some procurement difficulties. Inconsistent communication hampered implementation. The monetary transfer came as a surprise to some households. 16 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM however, often remain unaware of this additional expenditure, as they do not report a corresponding increase in spending in these categories when women are the recipients. Dietary diversity seems to be fairly equal for women and men and is not influenced by the sex of the program recipient. Although men report higher food security when women receive the transfers, women do not report any such change and do not seem to share this perception. Women do, however, report using the transfer primarily for cereals and other foods. Assigning a woman as a recipient rather than a man does not seem to influence her decision-making power, and women continue to report having less influence on decisions than men. In addition, no differential impact has been observed in terms of their relationships with their husbands or in their social capital. No matter who the recipient is, women continue to report higher levels of intimate partner violence in their villages than men, with no significant changes in perceptions or attitudes.9 The measured perceptions, norms and attitudes tend to be conservative and are not, in general, influenced by the sex of the recipient of the transfer. For example, respondents typically hold more conservative beliefs than they attribute to others. Women are less inclined than men to concur with statements like "It is solely the man's job to ensure there is enough to eat" (a 7-percentage point decrease from 87 percent) and "men make better financial decisions than women." However, designating a woman as the transfer recipient does not decrease her likelihood of agreeing with these conservative statements compared to men. Providing women with mobile phones did have other benefits, however. For example, the intervention increased women's phone ownership and use of mobile money10. Figure 6: Proportion of households spending the transfer on a particular categoiy, according to reports to women in male-iecipient households, I I CT iI I.II~ 20% -.60 Source: Hilger et al., 2023 from quantitative follow-up survey in Koulikoro; Notes: Households could list multiple items. As a result, shares do not add up to 100 percent 9 For example, women report being able to ask fewer people for advice than men report (2.4 for women versus 3.1 for men, p-value of difference < 0.05), and this difference does not change based on recipient status. No matter who the recipient is, women continue to perceive higher levels of intimate partner violence in their villages than men perceive (with women perceiving 0.41 more women out of 10 women in their village experiencing intimate partner violence, p-value < 0.05). 10 Compared to women in households where men are the recipient, when women are the recipient, they are 0.33 (p-value < 0.05) points more likely to report owning a phone themselves, and 0.27 (p-value <0.10) points more likely to report ever using mobile money (52 percent of women in a male recipient household report owning a phone, and 56% report having ever used mobile money). 17 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM 4.4. Lessons learned The Koulikoro pilot has shown that, far from increasing domestic disputes and tensions, paying transfers to women has either eased tensions or - at least - done no harm. Given that women are known to spend a significant share of the transfers on the education of their children, as well as food consumption, there is strong evidence of longer-term benefits for human capital. Direct transfers alone do not empower women and girls: additional support is vital to drive the larger shift in social norms that would enable their greater empowerment, productivity, and economic participation. This entails the establishment of productive safety net packages that encompass public works programs", skills training and more. People also need to be aware of such programs, highlighting the need for effective and complementary communication strategies. Productive safety nets are also most effective when their components are predictable and regular, enabling people to plan for the use of transfers and other inputs. Practical measures are needed to overcome the challenges, barriers and bottlenecks to implementation, from measures to ensure that beneficiaries have the autonomy and ability to withdraw transfers close to home, to the distribution of cellphones capable of managing transfers to those who do not yet have one. Many of these findings reinforce the conclusions of previous research. These include findings on efforts to link the RAMED program and Jigis6m6jiri program more closely in Mali, which revealed some of the same broad issues around communication and functionality (Tour6 and Escot, 2022). Similar findings have also emerged at the regional level from reviews of the impact of SASPP support across the Sahel. This has emphasized the need for an understanding of (and adaptation to) local realities to ensure effective delivery; strong coordination and monitoring; and the effective leveraging of technology; as well as the need to connect productive safety nets to other social and economic programs (SASPP, 2023b). Insecurity represents a major and continued challenge to the successful delivery of productive safety nets in Mali, as in other countries. This can - and does - make it difficult to access some intervention areas and the presence of payments can lead to the robbery and intimidation of beneficiaries. Those in insecure areas are less likely to make long-term investments if they fear the loss of such assets. Similarly, public works programs are more difficult to establish and implement in areas where travel to such programs may be risky, and where investments may be precarious. 1 Labor-intensive public works (LIPW) programs provide temporary employment opportunities to vulnerable populations through work- intensive projects, such as the development and maintenance of local infrastructure, that do not require special skills, with workers receiving a daily rate. 18 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM 5. Options for productive safety nets in Mal Critical changes in Mali's context for productive safety nets since 2020, including political instability, the COVID-19 pandemic, and security issues, have slowed the government's progress on the full mobilization of the safety net building blocks that are already in place. While the institutionalization of the Registre Social Unifi6 (RSU) is a key step forward, notably in creating a single-entry point for targeting social programs, progress on other areas of institutional arrangements and partnerships has faltered as the result of a difficult and shifting context (SASPP, 2023b). This chapter has outlined lessons learned, particularly the need for a gender lens across every aspect of productive safety nets. More broadly, it has reinforced the need to back productive safety nets with the necessary resources, monitoring and functionality and to 'join the dots' - linking them to other crucial services for the most vulnerable households, including health, education and nutrition. The following lays down policy options for how to strengthen productive safety nets in Mali, aimed at social policy makers. 5.1. What would it cost to provide a comprehensive productive safety net program? Providing a safety net program that covers 10 percent of the population with a basic transfer would cost about 3 percent of total usable revenue or 0.4 percent of GDP12. The total cost would amount to about CFAF 55.66 billion (USD93 million) a year. This seems feasible, given the scale of current expenditure (around 15.5 percent of GDP in 2022, with total transfers and subsidies accounting for 3.1 percent of GDP and the wage bill accounting for 7.6 percent). This would be a substantial increase in coverage: over the course of its life, the Emergency Safety Nets project has covered about 3.25 percent of the population. Similarly, the provision of Providing a safety net program that covers 10 percent of the population with a basic transfer would cost about 3 percent of total usable revenue or 0.4 percent of GDP. The total cost would amount to about CFAF 55.66 billion (USD93 million) a year. This seems feasible, given the scale of current expenditure (around 15.5 percent of GDP in 2022, with total transfers and subsidies accounting for 3.1 percent of GDP and the wage bill accounting for 7.6 percent). This would be a substantial increase in coverage: over the course of its life, the Emergency Safety Nets project has covered about 3.25 percent of the population. Similarly, the provision of a shock-responsive program shows that a conservative scenario of covering 33 percent of the population in IPC Phase 3+13 would cost about USD8 million yearly. Given the strong international evidence of their benefits on poverty, and food security, productivity, and resilience of the poorest, as well as their impacts on the local economy and the human capital of future generations, the fiscal costs of expanding productive safety nets are likely to be justified. For example, an investment of 1 percent of GDP in social protection policies has been found to generate a multiplier effect on GDP of between 0.7 and 1.9 in eight case study countries14. In Senegal, accounting 12 Covering 10 percent of the population with a transfer value of $200 per household per year and administrative costs of 20 percent of the transfer value. 13 Transfer value of $100 per household per year, administrative costs of 10 percent of the transfer value. 14 Bangladesh, Colombia, Costa Rica, Georgia, Ghana, India, Rwanda, Serbia. 19 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM for the impact on local economies, 13 percent of the poverty reduction observed between 2011 and 2019 can be attributed to the safety net program (World Bank, 2023). While all countries see a return on their investment and some enjoy an economic gain, investments in social protection seem to have a greater impact in countries with a lower GDP per capita (IUTC, 2021). 5.2. What could a future social safety net program in Mali look like? The evolution and impact of Mali's productive safety nets reveal that the three common threads that can inform future approaches. First, a government social safety net program is needed to mobilize resources and implement a vigorous social assistance policy at the national level (Projet de Filets socioux 'Jigisemejiri' du Mali, 2023). Second, the outcomes of the Koulikoro pilot project have shown that the impact of making transfers to women on childhood nutritional outcomes might not be as strong as it has been in other regions. Even so, the strengthening of intra-household bargaining would justify targeting social programs to women. Finally, there is a need to strengthen the productive elements of the social safety net program to enable poor households to become productive members of society. A government productive and gender sensitive social safety net program is needed to mobilize resources and implement a vigorous social assistance policy at the national level. Currently, Mali does not have a social safety net program. It is crucial for the government to establish a social safety net program. The different program elements can be designed based on the lessons learned in Mali over the last decade (such as a consumption support component, a shock-responsive component, a productive inclusion component, a labor-intensive public works component). It is crucial that gender- considerations are part of the design. The feasibility of each potential component depends on specific local conditions, e.g., security consideration15. A flexible and agile approach will allow the government to stay engaged even in fragile situations. Legally establishing a program would further enable the government to attract and channel donor resources. For example, the recently established Loss and Damage fund (Box 5) is likely to provide resources for social protection programming in affected countries. Shock responsive transfers are vital to address the overlapping crises facing Mali's most vulnerable households. Such transfers need to be ready for mobilization at speed, either before predictable shocks, such as droughts, or in their earliest days to ease their impact. Effective shock- responsive transfers rely on the presence of a strong social protection delivery system that includes a registry (the RSU, in the case of Mali), efficient methods to deliver transfers to people, and pre-arranged and established financing. 15 Research from Cameroon and Burkina Faso, for example, has shown that people tend to save instead of investing in situations of insecurity, reducing the potential for productive economic inclusion programs to support long-term asset accumulation (Della Guardia et al., 2024). 20 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM Box 5: Loss and Damage Fund and Adaptive Social Protection After the creation of the Loss and Damage Fund at COP28 in December 2023, the question remains what type of interventions it will finance. While an official definition of "loss and damage" remains to be developed, the concept is generally understood to refer to the "the consequences of climate change that go beyond what people can adapt to, or when options exist but a community doesn't have the resources to access or utilize them" (WRI, 2022). In the context of Mali and the rest of the West African Sahel, where temperatures are projected to rise 1.5 times faster than anywhere else and where climate shocks are expected to increase in frequency and severity, this could for example include agriculture losses and food insecurity due to drought, or the loss of assets and lives during extreme floods. Adaptive social protection in Mali, aimed at reducing climate shock impacts and vulnerability, can be a powerful instrument to tackle "loss and damage" related challenges. For example, as evidence from neighboring Niger demonstrates, emergency transfers following climate shocks can help strengthen welfare and food security (Premand and Stoeffler, 2022), climate-sensitive productive inclusion programs can strengthen resilience (Bossuroy et al. 2022), and linkages with climate early warning systems can enable faster shock response (World Bank, 2022). Eligible activities for the Loss and Damage Fund remain to be defined - however, ASP activities would be a natural contender for delivery to affected communities and households. An effective social protection system should be gender sensitive. As demonstrated by the payment of transfers to women in Mali's Koulikoro region, this does not lead automatically to their economic empowerment and inclusion. There is a growing recognition of the need to address the many factors that limit their ability to reach their full potential, and a clear role for programs that include activities (e.g., life skills training, childcare, husbands' clubs) and delivery arrangements (e.g., group-based implementation, digital accounts16). There is also a need to better understand the contexts required for women to shift from being nominal recipients of transfers to being in control of the funds received to strengthen their decision-making power and obtain stronger effects of childhood human capital outcomes. Mobile childcare centers enable women to participate in public works, and measures are needed to ensure the participation of the most vulnerable women, including those with disabilities and those who are internally displaced. Labor-intensive public works programs and productive economic inclusion programs need to have options for women to participate. That is, they need to take place in locations and at times that are feasible for women. If well designed, labor-intensive public works could, for example, incentivize displaced women and families to return to their home areas, if those areas are secure. 'Digital public works' are gaining some traction, using technology to maintain public infrastructure, and using digital tools and data that can also help to close the digital divide. A pilot project 16 Mobile payments can be delivered as cash-out or e-wallet options. The first requires beneficiaries to travel to payment points to retrieve the money. The second requires being able to pay for goods and services through the wallet. In Mopti region in Mali beneficiaries appreciated cash-out as it allowed flexibility in picking up the payment. In other fragile settings however, beneficiaries faced security threats when traveling to cash-out. 21 S AL APDRAOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM in Bamako has used this approach to classify aerial imagery to identify solid waste (GFDRR and World Bank, 2021). Productive economic inclusion needs to strengthen gender aspects to ensure that activities appeal to women. This involves enhancing support that meets their needs, providing tailored training, and fostering mentorship between trainers and participants. Crucially, the program must align with the realities of women's lives, considering their unique responsibilities, like childcare. This consideration is key to ensuring their ability to participate fully and benefit from these opportunities. Direct transfers can provide a first step, complemented by training and other inputs, such as grants for new enterprises. Here, the consumption support offered by direct transfers paves the way for such start-up grants. The effectiveness of productive economic inclusion programs in fragile areas is still an open question. Evidence to date suggests that impacts might differ, with beneficiaries focusing more on savings than on investment. Productive inclusion could also be an option in urban areas, particularly those that have seen recent increase in rural-to urban migration. Figure 7: Tools for productive safety nets in Mali and suitable application conditions Food (in kind [ D Iec ,Au, C I[ fL I t 0 t u e I , ra-i- ot transfers) S-rort I tr - f I t F -e e v ut 1[ I. r t I- I ' Ii L F u 't Iu[ - I I- f - In- Lle I I ci by- O A -ILd tC o r ii- Regular direct I t ]ulI a?e> roO -e 0 r, .n t - I 1 1 transfers for t I I I . rt m r At C r Ictadi extreme poor Ibu- - - i - r iCr e L '- -o:-"Ct th o u- 10 -nd -,e' m-rketq 'nat -L '- g m 's- - -1,ca r CO L - eA CO _ - 1 Lc 5 - -I i1 IoCO t I 0 -H ry t-d -r oooiacccc a l_ 1 ii n II 0 I t; l 1 I II olt[a - - I- : EV - le tc~~ Ift I I 1dc Labor intensive s I y - p r e E SU F -h I It netC. iC - t public works, with oL A fr It 0t r3 I a gA r - workers receiving 'Trs- 1 I t ti i t ---- it I tr - payments at a daily ---- 1-- - - - IE t - rate for unskilled U: t t -,I I . E 1 r, Labor activities - 1 -e I 1 1- 1 t -t I- d o to t _ - -e Income generating F n r * 1o u t n If o-Ef tC- "it - activities/ Productive Ctii --r -- I S -t l I on t I s economic inctusion n ni.a I a, ngt t ,-.ha n-3_ Lt ni- il -tos Shock responsive s-CC Io r -c No so 11OLL ta- *Sorr- St A)'Sorr n o d - .c v o nor Notes: This table provides a summary of the evidence gathered from Sahel countries and Mali and offers implications for the feasibility of programming in Mali. 22 SARL AOPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series PROGRAM 6. ography Abadie, A, and J Gardeazabal. 2003. "The Economic Costs of Conflict: A Case Study of the Basque Country." American Economic Review 93 (1): 113-32. Bastagli, Francesca, Jessica Hagen-Zanker, Luke Harman, Valentina Barca, Georgina Sturge and Tanja Schmidt. 2016. Cash transfers: what does the evidence say? A rigorous review of programme impact and of the role of design and implementation features. 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"What Is "Loss and Damage" from Climate Change? 8 Key Questions, Answered." https://www.wri.orq/insights/Ioss-damage-climate-change 25 S/IAL ADAPTEION SASPP Technical Paper Series / PROGRAM www.worldbank.orq Acknowledgements The SASPP is a multi-donor trust fund managed by the World Bank that supports the strengthening of adaptive social protection systems in the Sahel (Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, Niger, and Senegal) to enhance the resilience of poor and vulnerable households and communities to the impacts of climate change. The program is supported by Denmark, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom. MINISTRY OF d F juededgenl htihry ZZ hRWcn FOREIGN AFFAIRS r D r tor Econcmic Coopraticn u OF DENMARK tAGLCE RAN Aow and Deelment yrsve ___0__ MlmaC EEEaid Rt-h-ti gsn e s6 The ate a ths wok ssubectto opyrght Beaus Th Wor Bak ecouage