Foresight and Scenario Planning for Smart Mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean Foresight andScenarioPlanning Mobility for Smart inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean A © 2023 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/International Development Association or The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Examples of components can include, but are not limited to, tables, figures, and images. Foresight andScenarioPlanning Mobility for Smart inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean B Contents Abbreviations 2 Acknowledgements 3 Executive Summary 4 I. Introduction 7 Background 8 The Latin American and Caribbean Context 9 Approach 10 II. Smart Mobility Foresight 11 Description of Foresight 12 Drivers and Signals of Change 16 Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 23 Key Takeaways and the Role of Governments 35 Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 38 Appendix A: Emerging Technology Opportunities 47 Appendix B: Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 53 Appendix C: Further Reading 60 Abbreviations 5G fifth generation of mobile technologies AI artificial intelligence CEO chief executive officer GP Global Practice IoT internet of things ITSTI Information and Technology Solutions Technology and Innovation Lab MaaS mobility as a service WBG World Bank Group Foresight andScenarioPlanning Mobility for Smart inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 02 Acknowledgements TRANSPORT GLOBAL PRACTICE Felipe Targa, Sergio Eduardo Martinez, Aitor Franco Arana, Alejandro Hoyos Guerrero, Jeongjin Oh D I G I TA L D E V E L O P M E N T G L O B A L P R A C T I C E Axel Rifon Perez I N F O R M AT I O N A N D T E C H N O L O G Y S O L U T I O N S T E C H N O L O G Y A N D I N N O V AT I O N L A B Yusaku Kawashima, Rachel Alexandra Halsema, Monika Kowalczykowski, Ji Ho Shin, Olushola Ibironke Joanne Martins, Jinhee Park, Mert Ozdag, Casey Traylor, Yusuf Karacaoglu, Stela Mocan The World Bank Transport Global Practice (GP), Digital Development GP, and Information and Technology Solutions Technology and Innovation Lab authored this report. The authors are grateful to Ann Shildneck for editorial support and Trent Wakenight, Tiffany Forner, and Sergio Andres Moreno for designing infographics and this report. Executive Summary The World Bank Transport Global Practice (GP) promotes safe, clean, affordable transport that supports economic and social development. One of the focuses of the Transport GP’s portfolio is to support client countries’ and cities’ efforts to implement smart mobility. Smart mobility, in this report, refers to transport modes and services with efficient, convenient, safe, or sustainable features backed up by technological components. Examples of smart mobility include transport modes with digital ticketing, on-demand mobility, drones, and autonomous vehicles, although there is a wide variety of smart mobility options. World Bank Group (WBG) clients require expertise and strategies to be able to implement smart mobility applications and solutions. The World Bank Information and Technology Solutions Technology and Innovation Lab (ITSTI) has expertise in use of disruptive technologies such as artificial intelligence, Internet of things, blockchain, and robotics and has developed policy recommendations using a policy devel- opment methodology called Foresight, which is a structured, systematic way of using ideas about the future to anticipate and prepare for change. Transport GP, Digital Development GP, and ITSTI used Foresight to develop this report to assist clients by providing insights into the Foresight methodology and how it can be leveraged to develop future-ready international development projects. Smart Mobility Foresight Section I describes the project background and approach and the Latin American and Caribbean context. Section II illustrates important aspects of Foresight techniques and research findings used to build the future state (scenarios) of smart mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean. The report then outlines what life would look like in 2030 under sce- narios developed based on the current situation. Scenarios are illustrated with the personal perspectives (e.g., needs, concerns, experiences, interests) of people in those future situa- tions to help readers understand the scenarios better. The overall goal of this exercise is not to predict the future but to prepare for risks related to the future scenarios and maximize the potential benefits by considering current policy decisions. The Foresight exercise conducted for this report was not meant to develop an action roadmap for any specific country because action roadmaps depend on a country’s or city’s context, such as its political situation, available resources, and existing infrastructure. This report uses a high-level viewpoint to try to demonstrate and illustrate the process and outputs of Foresight. For those who would like to create concrete action plans, the report pro- vides some inspiration and ideas to develop future action plans. In the meantime, Appendix A Executive Summary 04 lists emerging technology opportunities, Appendix B provides smart mobility examples, and Appendix C lists useful resources for reference. After reading this report, readers will understand how to use Foresight to develop projects in any sector. Readers can also create variations of scenarios by extending scenario assump- tions horizontally (modifying the time frame) and vertically (changing uncertainties, personas, and focuses on specific technologies) to gain further policy insights. FUTURE SCENARIOS: TRANSPORT IN 2030 To analyze the future of smart mobility, four scenarios were created along two axes (techno- logical adoption, pandemic frequency): Gap Between Haves and S C EN A RI O 1 . impact of pandemics on regulatory reform; Have-Nots Widens frequent pandemics accelerate government A low-tech future with frequent pandemics responses to rising demand for individu- will lead to social division within and between al-based mobility and highly efficient logistics countries. This scenario presents a more systems. pessimistic view than the other scenarios, with frequent pandemics having weakened SCE NARI O 3. Return to Business as Usual the customer base for transport services, In a low-tech future without frequent pandem- hindering development of private companies ics, growing concern about climate change that offer transport services. This scenario will drive investment in public transport and also illustrates the impact of lack of invest- shared mobility services. Car ownership will ment in technological development. In this become less popular, which will affect urban future state, policy makers must respond to planning and government investment plans a regularly changing pandemic situation and for transport. Future mobility will be, to some will encounter difficulties in achieving a smart extent, a continuation of current conditions. mobility vision. SCE NARI O 4 . Private Sector Blossoms S C EN A RI O 2 . Hybrid Work Continues A high-tech future with no fear of frequent In a high-tech future with frequent pan- pandemics is the best scenario for most demics, technology will enable hybrid work people. Stable use of mobility solutions will styles and support mobility innovations. enable a healthy investment environment Frequent pandemics will keep many peo- and predictability for the private sector to ple working remotely, with those who must develop innovative solutions. Private sector commute supported by safe transport sys- actors will become major providers of trans- tems. Governments will work to update the port services in some countries, although transport-related regulatory environment to privacy concerns and cybersecurity risks will accommodate new services that mitigate the be more prominent as mobility data is con- challenges that arise with pandemics. A key tinuously collected and reused to optimize takeaway from this scenario is the potential services. Executive Summary 05 KEY TAKEAWAYS FROM THE FORESIGHT EXERCISE The Foresight exercise and scenario planning provided some useful takeaways for the WBG and its clients. Investment in technology enables better transport systems regardless of the pandemic situation, but technological solutions develop in different ways depending on sce- nario assumptions. Technology will accelerate smart mobility implementation, along with risks such as misuse of sensitive data and cybercrime. Data collection, management, and cybersecurity are key components of high-technology scenarios. Frequent pandemics may widen economic gaps within and between countries and create an unpredictable customer base for transport services, although frequent pandemics can transform societies, creating momentum for policy change to update existing transport systems. In addition, mobility solu- tions will change as more-individual and -automated transport becomes the default. Climate change will be a key driver of policy consensus, requiring investments in mobility solutions for mass transport and environmentally sustainable mobility modes such as walking and cycling. Demographic characteristics will significantly influence the future of mobility. In Latin America and the Caribbean, the dependency rate1 has been low since the early 2000s, which enables vigorous economic growth through a large labor force and an increase in savings and investment in human and physical capital. The dependency rate is expected to increase during the 2030s,2 which will require governments to formulate long-term sustainable budgetary strat- egies and guarantee access to transport for vulnerable groups such as poor people and older adults. Because of constraints on public sector budgets, the private sector will be expected to play a larger role in offering transport services. ROLE OF GOVERNMENTS We have developed recommendations for government entities.3 It is critical that national gov- ernments develop strategies to foster smart mobility through strategic investment, consumer protection, and standard setting. In the meantime, national governments must bridge the gap between the haves and have-nots that the COVID-19 pandemic has widened. We suggest that they use the smart mobility scenarios in this report, adapting them to the local context to develop an action roadmap suitable for different situations. Regional governments can pursue social innovations through partnerships with the private sector, local communities, and academia to encourage development and implementation of digital solutions. Risk mitigation measures such as ensuring data protection and cybersecurity should accompany the innovation effort. In addition, addressing exclusion is fundamentally important. Assisting with and ensuring access to transport services for vulnerable groups such as poor people, women, and digitally unconnected groups is an important role for government. 1 The ratio of the population that is not in the labor force (the dependent part) to the population that is in the labor force (aged 15–64) in a society. Low dependency rates create positive conditions for economic growth. 2 World Bank. “When We’re Sixty-Four : Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America.” Accessed September 9, 2022. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34562. 3 The Foresight exercise conducted for this report was held at a high level and did not incorporate specific country contexts. The recommendations are not exhaustive. Executive Summary 06 ONE Introduction Background The World Bank is seeking to transition its portfolio to encompass the new generation of smart mobility appli- cations; key knowledge and capacity gaps must be addressed to facilitate this transition. It is also necessary to review successful smart mobility case studies and inter- national best practices in the evolution from cutting-edge technologies toward more-integrated, holistic, smart mobility solutions and to consider whether these experiences offer lessons for Bank operations in developing countries. The World Bank Group (WBG) Information and Technology Solutions Technology and Innovation Lab (ITSTI) works as a collaboration platform, knowledge hub, and accelerator for experimenting with, prototyping, and mainstreaming cutting-edge technologies and innova- tive business models. ITSTI collaborates with stakeholders to explore and implement new capabilities to enable the WBG to achieve its mission of ending extreme poverty and pro- moting shared prosperity. ITSTI provides the knowledge, experimentation space, convening power, and guidance to deliver business solutions using new and emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence (AI), blockchain,4 the Internet of things (IoT),5 fifth-generation (5G) mobile telecommunications technology, robotics, drones, and other emerging technologies. ITSTI collaborated with the World Bank Transport Global Practice (GP) to develop this report to supplement the Transport and Digital Development GPs’ effort to accelerate the WBG’s smart mobility projects. ITSTI used the Foresight methodology, which it has been using since 2019, to help Bank staff create policy projects with futuristic ideas to help cities transition toward smart mobility solutions. ITSTI illustrates the potential of disruptive technologies for smart mobility so that the Transport and Digital Development GPs can fully harness emerging technology–enabled solutions to assist client countries and cities. 4 Blockchain is a type of digital ledger technology that consists of a growing list of records, called blocks, that are securely linked using cryptography. Each block contains a cryptographic hash of the previous block, a timestamp, and transaction data. The timestamp proves that the transaction data existed when the block was created. Because each block contains information about the block before it, they effectively form a chain. Blockchain transactions are irreversible in that, once they are recorded, the data in any given block cannot be altered retroactively without altering all subsequent blocks. 5 The IoT is a network of physical objects with sensors, processing ability, software, and other technologies that connect and exchange data with other devices and systems over the Internet or other communications networks. Background 08 The Latin American and the Caribbean Context The mobility landscape of Latin America and the Caribbean is heterogenous, with various paradigms (colonialism, modernism, rapid urbanization, informality, suburban sprawl) shaping the urban landscape,6 resulting in a complex, variable ecosystem of transport modes and services, reflecting legacy forms of transport (e.g., gas-powered automobiles) and innovative approaches (e.g., cable cars).7 Traditional forms of mobility such as walking and bicycling are important transport modes for poor people, especially in urban areas.8 Although newer mobility options (e.g., ride sharing, electric bicycle rentals) have gained traction in the region, access is unequal. The COVID-19 pandemic reduced ridership on public transportation. Geographic inequity is a key obstacle to mobility accessibility for poor people, with low-income housing frequently located far from employment opportunities.9 The pandemic also increased the number of people living in poverty by 22 million.10 Air quality remains a stubborn challenge, primarily driven by vehicle emissions.11 The challenge of smart mobility includes providing policy makers and transport planners with options to reduce the burden of transport for disadvantaged groups, including elderly adults, low-income workers, women, and persons of Indigenous and African descent. Improving mobility requires making progress on a number of fronts, including non-technological (e.g., governance and infrastructure) and technological (e.g., taking advantage of the region’s growing technology startup sector).12 6 “Latin American Geographies: A Glace Over an Immense Landscape.” Harvard Design Magazine. Accessed October 21, 2021. https://www.harvarddesignmagazine.org/issues/34/latin-american-geographies-a-glance-over-an-immense-land- scape 7 “Latin American Geographies: A Glance Over an Immense Landscape.” Harvard Design Magazine. Accessed October 21, 2021. https://www.harvarddesignmagazine.org/issues/34/latin-american-geographies-a-glance-over-an-immense-land- scape. 8 Interamerican Development Bank. “The Role of Active Transport Modes in Enhancing the Mobility of Low-Income People in Latin America and the Caribbean.” Accessed October 21, 2021. https://publications.iadb.org/en/role-active-trans- port-modes-enhancing-mobility-low-income-people-latin-america-and-caribbean. 9 Brookings Institution. “Addressing Spatial Inequity in Latin American Cities.” Accessed October 21, 2021. https://www. brookings.edu/research/addressing-spatial-inequity-in-latin-american-cities/. 10 “Pandemic Prompts Rise in Poverty to Levels Unprecedented in Recent Decades and Sharply Affects Inequality and Em- ployment.” Economic Commission for Latin America, Santiago, Chile. Accessed October 21, 2021. https://www.cepal.org/en/ pressreleases/pandemic-prompts-rise-poverty-levels-unprecedented-recent-decades-and-sharply-affects. 11 Energy Policy Institute, University of Chicago. “Air Quality Life Index.” Accessed October 24, 2021. https://aqli.epic.uchica- go.edu/. 12 “Mexican Unicorn Kavak Raises a $485m Series D at a $4B Valuation.” Tech Crunch. Accessed October 21, 2021. https:// techcrunch.com/2021/04/07/mexican-unicorn-kavak-raises-a-485m-series-d-at-a-4b-valuation/. The Latin American and the Caribbean Context 09 Approach Challenges and potential solutions, disruptive technology opportunities, and their enabling architecture in the smart mobility space were researched in the literature. Then, drivers that will affect mobility solutions in the future in Latin America and the Caribbean were identified, as well as signals of changes such as small or local innovations with the potential to grow as globally accepted services. After that, drivers and signals of change were used as fundamen- tal factors in developing future scenarios through a Foresight workshop with subject matter experts from the Transport GP, Digital Development GP, and IDOM, a global engineering and advisory firm. Section II provides a detailed explanation of the Foresight methodology used. Four scenarios of the future of smart mobility were developed, shared with subject matter experts, and updated based on their feedback and the local context in Latin America and the Caribbean. Personas were developed to highlight the journey and pain points of various potential stakeholders in the smart mobility market: a commuter, an urban planner, the chief executive officer (CEO) of a mobility solutions firm, and a transport ministry official. The project team then prepared this report and developed graphics to document and illus- trate the results from this project with help from external designers. It is hoped that these graphics will make the Foresight methodology accessible to other transport projects and consolidate knowledge gained from this engagement. Figure 1 provides an overview of the approach used to develop this report. F I G U R E 1. Overview of the Approach Used Analyze context Develop Horizon and validate Assess Scenario Scan disruptive four scenarios Research Creation based on key technology 1 3 use cases uncertainties Develop Document additional key learnings insights on Foresight trends and Gather to spark Workshop signals of Insights further, deeper 2 4 change thinking Approach 10 TWO Smart Mobility Foresight Approach 11 Description of Foresight Foresight is a structured, systematic way of using ideas about the future to anticipate and prepare for change and often includes scenario planning. A growing number of regional Foresight activities are taking place in Asia and the Pacific, Europe, and Latin America and the Caribbean. Foresight is also gaining popularity in international organizations such as the United Nations,13 United Nations Development Program,14 and Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.15 Figure 2 provides examples from international organizations. Foresight helps international organizations and policy makers devise policy solutions based on continuously changing situations rather than static assumptions. This way, solutions address uncertainties and incorporate the potential influence of global trends and emerging inventions. The Foresight principles are listed in Figure 3. F I G U R E 2. Foresight-Related Articles and Materials from International Organizations Multilateral institutions have used Foresight to support long-term planning for uncertain futures with respect to human capital, societal and political change, and development assistance. The Converging Technology Latin America & the Caribbean Revolution & Human Capital 2030: Future Scenarios Potential–Implications for (2016) South Asia Inter-American Development Bank. (2021) Jason Marczak, Peter Engelke, World Bank. Sajitha Bashir, Carl David Bohl, Andrea Saldarriaga J. Dahlman,Naoto Kanehira, and Jiménez Klaus Tilmes Foresight Manual– Applying Foresight & Empowered Futures Alternative Futures to the (2018) United Nations Development United Nations Development Plan Assistance Framework Global Centre for Public Service (2016) Excellence United Nations Sustainable Development Group 13 UN Sustainable Development Group. 2016. “Applying Foresight and Alternative Futures to the United Nations Develop- ment Assistance Framework.” Accessed September 9, 2022. https://unsdg.un.org/resources/applying-foresight-and-al- ternative-futures-united-nations-development-assistance. 14 UN Development Program. 2018. “Foresight Manual—Empowered Futures.” Accessed September 9, 2022. https://www. undp.org/publications/foresight-manual-empowered-futures. 15 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “Strategic Foresight.” Accessed September 9, 2022. https:// www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/. Description of Foresight 12 F I G U R E 3. Foresight Principles Foresight is not to Foresight does not predict or forecast the future. 1 predict the future The objective is to prepare strategies that are robust across a range of possible futures. Foresight addresses events that may or may not There are many 2 possible futures occur. The future does not emerge as a single shape but as a range or spectrum. Present-day interventions influence the future. Actions now can 3 influence the future Foresight often includes developing action plans to achieve preferrable futures. The future is a continuation of the present. It is Future scenarios are 4 important to consider the current situation when based on current facts developing future scenarios. As written in Foresight principle 1, the intention of Foresight is not to predict the future but to use a participatory approach to help stakeholders anticipate challenging futures. As the future cone diagram in Figure 4 shows, there may be many possible futures, and plausible and preferable futures are small subsets of possible futures. Scenarios are future represen- tations based on current facts, trends, and signals of change. Some specific scenarios are seen as wild cards because they are so different from probable scenarios, whereas others are probable futures that are simply a continuation of the present. Somewhere in the possible future area, there is a preferable future that key stakeholders represented in the Foresight exercise believe is ideal. Foresight is fundamentally back casting: a planning method that starts with defining a desirable future and then works backward to identify policies and pro- grams that will connect that future to the present. The vertical range of the future increases as the time range lengthens. The Foresight methodology has four stages: preparation, Foresight creation, insight collec- tion, and action planning (Figure 5).16 The Foresight process fosters a unified understanding of the actions to be taken through this collective, participatory process and hence works best when an intensive workshop takes place with stakeholders to devise scenarios and create action plans to maximize social benefits and mitigate risks. Foresight can be extremely ben- eficial in the initial stage of project development to imagine future possibilities and share a broad vision of the future that key stakeholders agree on.17 After conducting Foresight pro- cesses, several key outputs were developed: drivers, signals, scenarios, and key takeaways. 16 This report focuses on the preparation, Foresight creation, and insight collection stages. In the action planning stage, concrete action items are developed to maximize the possibility that the ideal future state happens. Because action plans depend greatly on a society of interest’s political situation, environmental situation, and infrastructure, this report does not explore them but instead focuses on methodologies and outputs from a future-centric perspective. 17 Project members have researched and studied Foresight methodologies from various sources, one of which was Institute for the Future, a well-known Foresight education organization in California. Description of Foresight 13 Description of Foresight F I G U R E 4. The Futures Cone Wild Card Possible Scenario Plausible Probable Preferable Today Time Source: Joseph Voros. “A Primer on Futures Studies, Foresight and the Use of Scenarios.” Accessed August 29, 2022. https://thevoroscope.com/publications/Fore- sight-primer/. The original future cone diagram was introduced in Trevor Hancock and Clement Bezold. 1994. “Possible Futures, Preferable Futures.” Healthcare Forum Journal 37 (2): 23-29. 14 Description of Foresight 14 F I G U R E 5. Four Stages of the Foresight Exercise The World Bank Transport Global Practice, together with client countries, promotes safe, clean, affordable transport systems that contribute to economic and social development. The Information and Technology Solutions Technology Think systematically about possible & Innovation Lab, Transport Global Practice, and 1–PREPARATION futures by leaming about the past and Digital Development Global Practice have used the present, taking into account drivers, foresight and scenario planning methodology to trends, signals, and emerging risks explore smart mobility futures for the World Bank and opportunities that influence the Smart Mobility Guideline for Latin America and the future. During the Prepare stage, the Caribbean. systems in which society operates today is mapped out to make the complex ecosystem visible and reveal connections between systems. 4–ACTION PLANNING Prioritize next steps and identify opportunities for change, innovation, and FORESIGHT futuristic expenments. methodology Design action road- maps, test and adjust hypotheses, make better use of internal assets, and build appropriate strategic 2–FORESIGHT CREATION partnerships to overcome existing gaps based on the desired future. Inform plausible, provocative, compelling views of the future by developing knowledge of the present. Creatively examining future options 3–INSIGHT COLLECTION and analyzing patterns of change can reveal unexpected possibilities and alternative futures and help Identify potential implications and choices for personalize how an organization possible implementa-tion. Revisit decisions might best serve current customers about organizational, sectoral, and development and new audiences. transformation actions, incorporating insights about disruptive forces, systemic changes, opportunities, and risks. Description of Foresight 15 Drivers and Signals of Change When applying Foresight, project members researched the topic of interest—smart mobil- ity—by studying news, academic papers, and case studies and interviewing subject matter experts. A typical first step of a Foresight exercise is to explore underlying drivers (also called trends or forces) that have been, are, and will be shaping the ecosystem. The next step is to scan the signals of change—small or local innovations with the potential to grow in size and geographic distribution—which can be a new product, service, technology, practice, market strategy, or policy and be a catalyst that can lead to larger changes in the market.18 Having a better understanding of and a consensus on drivers and signals is fundamental for scenario development because they will give breadth and depth to the representations of the future, which can help stakeholders prepare for surprising futures. The list of drivers and signals collected from the research and Foresight sessions are summarized in Figure 6. Tables 1 and 2 illustrate drivers and signals of change in detail. TA B L E 1 . Drivers of Change AREAS K EY DRI VERS I N SIG H TS Digital and Robotics, Autonomous vehicles, also called driverless or self-driving cars, can navigate and technology autonomous overcome obstacles without a driver. Massive adoption of autonomous vehicles could development vehicles, drones transform all aspects of life because people could enjoy additional free time while using them. Drones offer a variety of services ranging from environmental monitoring to traffic management. Rise of AI AI has potential to change the smart mobility sector through various capabilities such as computer vision, voice recognition, and prediction. Those capabilities play fundamental technical roles in smart mobility solutions such as autonomous vehicles and drones. In the meantime, AI can be used for surveillance systems and traffic management. Smart phones and Smart phone–enabled apps have provided options for mobility and tracking of travel mobility platforms information. Mobility solutions such as on-demand transport and micro-mobility options such as bicycle and electric scooter rentals are often available via smart phone apps. Financial Payment for mobility is becoming more digitized and streamlined. Financial technology, technology such as mobile wallets and digital payment solutions, offers convenience and transparency. Mobility as a Mobility as a service is the integration of multimodal transport services into a single service mobility service accessible on demand. It offers commuters added value through use of a single application to provide access to mobility services, with one payment channel. Connectivity, Connectivity is a fundamental factor for smart mobility, connecting vehicles, roads, Internet of things, and traffic lights, among other things, with Internet access. Communication between transport data- vehicles and road infrastructure is a critical enabler for autonomous vehicles. Connected gathering sensors sensors may also be employed to collect data to improve transport (e.g., preventive maintenance, intelligent conservation of roads). 18 “Signals.” Institute for the Future. Accessed September 6, 2022. https://www.iftf.org/what-we-do/foresight-tools/signals/ Drivers and Signals of Change 16 AREAS K EY DRI VERS I N SIG H TS COVID-19 Work from home, Remote, hybrid, and flexible-schedule work have all became much more acceptable and future commuting at non- options in multiple sectors as a result of the COVID-19 pandemic and may become the pandemics peak hours new standard for many workers. Demand for Cleaner, safer public transport with good air circulation have become preferred. clean public transportation E-commerce and Demand for logistical services for e-commerce and delivery services have increased food delivery substantially. Reduction in Reduction in overall travel has reduced use of transport. Countries with higher tourism and vaccination rates may recover more quickly. business travel, vaccination passport Broader economic COVID-19 has exacerbated economic hardship. In addition to loss of employment , some opportunities people face challenges accessing services. Alternatively, fear of infection has increased demand for safer and individual travel modes. Lack of access to Access to online education varies depending on country, region, and family situation, education which aggravates the existing human capital gap. Climate change National and International, national, and local regulatory pressure to adopt sustainable solutions that international can mitigate and adapt to climate change is increasing. initiatives to address climate change Green and smart In Latin America and the Caribbean, 35 percent of greenhouse gas emissions are mobility solutions related to fuel combustion from the transport sector.a Rising concerns about climate change are leading end users to prefer greener, smarter mobility solutions. Electric vehicles Electric vehicles have the potential to become the new standard of the automobile industry and will require new infrastructure such as power chargers, transformers, and power lines. More investment in electric vehicles may affect fossil fuel-related industries. Consumer concern Zero-emission transport will gain attention from consumers regarding prioritization of about transport nonmotorized transport. emissions Rise of climate- Cities play significant roles in energy reduction, climate protection, and climate neutral cities adaptation. Since the mid-2010s, an increasing number of countries, cities, organizations, and individuals have been focusing on climate-neutral cities. Drivers and Signals of Change 17 FIGURE 6. Drivers of Change and Signals That Will Influence the Future of Smart Mobility This map represents CRYPTOCITY METAVERSE DLT BASED MOBILITY AI MANAGED CITY SYNCHRONICITY research gathered through CityDAO makes city assets Hyundai Mobility DATA ECOSYSTEM Solves problems of Builds a marketplace for IoT the Foresight process. To digitally legible to unleash Adventure showcases Enables access to and transportation, security, and AI enabled solutions to explore smart mobility accessibility, interoperabil- future mobility lifestyles benefits from municipal construction, tackle challenges through ul futures, the project team n in the metaverse. urban planning. innovation. K tu ie ity, and opportunity. vehicle-generated data. r-T tW bl o in m KULTUR TOKEN oken by Stad considered key drivers of da og tel .co .liq uid.co m/city - hyu lig e t sy nch .eu nd ai.co m dlt.mo bi nttran spor ronicity-iot Rewards climate-friendly citizens change and signals as taking more sustainable mobility strategic factors to develop solutions. possible scenarios. TRANSMICABLE CO2 A 3.34km gondola ON DEMAND RIDES system benefits Individual transport available whenever disadvantaged residents you want, at a reasonable price. in Bogota, Colombia. ifc.org uber T E C H NOLOGY C L IM AT E C H A NG E .co m DRONES rg k.o D E V ELOP M ENT gs.w orldban For many purposes, from CAR SHARING SERVICE environmental monitoring Peer-to-peer marketplace. blo to tra c management. • Rise of AI, Robotics, Autonomous Car/Drone • Government/International Initiatives for Ph on tur ot os by v o.com Hi o Au gus to Escriben s, • Smartphones and Mobile Platforms Expansion Climate Change • Fintech for Mobility for Convenience and • Prioritize Green and Smart Mobility Solutions CBDC DIGITAL YUAN SOLAR AIRPLANE Transparency • Electric Vehicles Expansion Covers complete public transporta- Solar Impulse first to fly • Mobility-as-a-Service (MaaS) • Consumer Concern on Transportation Mode’s tion system, nudging people toward around the world without green travel. any liquid fuel. • Connectivity, IoT, and Data Platforms Emissions so co • Rise of Climate Neutral Cities la im inge ek.c o m r pu lse .com ON DEMAND MOBILITY FLYING CAR ANALYTICS Travel shorter distances, Takes big data from mobile devices reduce tra c and pollution. to fuel analyses. str eet lig htd ata.co m are omob ile.com SATELLITE IMAGERY AUTONOMOUS Makes it possible to analyze D E M OG R A P H IC C OV ID 19 & F U T U R E DRIVERS OF CHANGE VEHICLES transportation situations and inform Benefits could include more C H A NG E PA NDEM IC S infrastructure investments. blo The first step of the sh g. pla ax leisure time and safer roads. m a r. Foresight exercise is to scan • Change in Demographics and People’s Behavior ns com ho • Work from Home / Avoiding Peak Hours U P to on and collect the underlying by B ern d D itt rich • Increased Urbanization—Demand for E cient and Safe trends, forces, or drivers • Demand for Clean Public Transportation EDGE COMPUTING Transport Mode that have been, are and will ELECTRIC VEHICLES • Acceleration of E-commerce & Food Delivery Data is processed and analyzed • Longevity Requiring Easy Access to Transportation for be shaping the ecosystem. EVs minimize pollution • Reduction in Trade, Tourism & Business Travel near its source, minimizing latency. and noise levels. All • Widen Economic Opportunities / Lack of Access to Ph m co • Income Inequality—Uneven Access to Personalized ot n. sh by la m a c hin e d e sig o Ch sp utte rsnap on U n Mobility Education • Change in Political Priority IOT 3D NETWORK TUNNEL Network of objects through sensors that A series of underground collect and transmit data, creating nd tunnels to automatically guide benefits for smart transport. ot ch te .c vehicles and reduce tra c. om bo SIGNALS rin gc om pan y. c o m 3D PRINTING FOR MICRO MOBILITY SLOW STREETS The next process of Foresight SUPERBLOCKS 5G includes scanning the signals. HYPERLOOP MOBILITY Provide methods for Redesiged for safer Transforming streets into The potential to High-speed A new European project short trips in cities walking, running, cycling Signals are small or local walkable, mixed-used empower connected transportation system using carbon fibers and while reducing tra c by limiting tra c access innovations with potential to public spaces. and autonomous for cit mu dc 3D printing to design and speed. am for both passenger and lowering the vehicles. ie be is grow in scale and geographic lti .c to co fg ai ed s- t. m s om da m . and freight. lighter, sturdier trains. carbon footprint. y. c o m ia. scm virgin p.com distribution. .com Drivers and Signals of Change Drivers and Signals of Change 18 AREAS K EY DRI VERS I N SIG H TS Demographic Change in In Latin America and the Caribbean, the dependency rate has been low since the change and demographic 2000s, which creates conditions conducive to economic growth through a large labor urban design characteristics and force and an increase in saving and investment in human and physical capital.b In this people’s behavior favorable phase, a demographic “window” of opportunity is open that supports vigorous economic development. Urbanization; People are moving to cities—increasing population density in city centers and creating demand for demand for safe, accessible, cost-effective public transport. efficient, safe transport Longevity, requiring Longer life expectancy requires elder-friendly design for transportation and cities, easy access to such as elevators in stations and good lighting. Driving a car can be difficult for some; transportation autonomous vehicles could become an option. Income inequality; Access to affordable transportation remains a priority. Income inequality leads to uneven uneven access to adoption of smart mobility solutions. mobility Change in political Political status affects development of transport. Long-term investment requires stability, priorities geopolitical status often affects policy priority, and budget constraints require sound city planning strategies. Note: Appendix A provides additional information about technology opportunities. AI=artificial intelligence. a. World Bank. “How Better Transport Will Help Latin America Get Ahead of the Climate Crisis.” Accessed September 9, 2022. https://blogs.worldbank.org/transport/how-better-transport-will-help-latin-america-get-ahead-climate-crisis. b. World Bank. “When We’re Sixty-Four : Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America.” Accessed September 9, 2022. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34562. TA B L E 2 . Signals of Change and Examples CATEGO RY SIG N AL E XA MP L E E X A M P L E D E TA I L Digital services AI-managed city Alibaba City Brain is a new architecture of a smart city based on AI systems that help solve problems of transport, security, municipal construction, urban planning, and others.a As of September 2019, City Brain had been implemented in 23 cities across Asia. Metaverseb Hyundai Hyundai Mobility Adventure is the first virtual experience content on Motor Roblox (a global gaming platform) developed by a global automotive brand to showcase future mobility lifestyles in the metaverse. Token to reduce Kultur People can receive tokens for admission to cultural venues and events carbon dioxide by taking part in a wide range of climate-friendly activities such as using emissions public transport, biking, and walking in Vienna, Austria. Central bank E-yuan Chengdu is the first Chinese city to offer the Chinese central bank digital digital currency currency e-yuan across its public transport system, which includes metro, for sustainability buses, and bicycles. It encourages people to use green travel, conserves energy, and reduces carbon emissions. Citizens can apply to win one of 100,00 digital yuan public transport packages that include coupons that can be stored in a digital yuan wallet and be redeemed for tickets via an app on their mobile phone.c Drivers and Signals of Change 19 CATEGO RY SIG N AL E XA MP L E E X A M P L E D E TA I L Digital services Blockchain for City Dao City Dao, a blockchain-based platform, is an experimental project into (Continued) smart cities decentralized land ownership. The aim is to build a city with decentralized governance, where “citizens” purchase land in the form of nonfungible tokens. City Dao members make collective decisions about how to use land. Data On-demand StreetLight StreetLight uses data from mobile devices to conduct analyses. Volume marketplace mobility Data of trips over different periods of time and differences according to type analytics of day, time of day, data period, and vehicle type can be viewed via the platform, and trip time, length, speed, circuity, and purpose can be identified. Mobility data Drive&Stake RIDDLE&CODE developed Drive&Stake—a decentralized, end-to-end ecosystem solution for the creation of automated mobility data marketplaces that enable all participants to access and benefit from vehicle-generated data. City data SynchroniCity SynchroniCity has created a marketplace enabling a broad array of exchange city-generated IoT data to be exchanged among a diverse group of stakeholders for deployment across multiple cities—now live in Santander, Spain; Manchester, England; Helsinki, Finland; Carouge, Switzerland; Porto, Portugal; and other cities. Mobility apps On-demand Uber, Lyft With on-demand transport, one can request an immediate ride at any time. rides This is a rapidly growing service worldwide that often competes with a coexisting taxi industry. Car-sharing Turo Turo is a community with more than 450,000 vehicles operating in a peer- services to-peer car-sharing marketplace in which customers choose from nearby cars, and hosts earn cash to offset the costs of car ownership. Micro-mobility Yulu Micro-mobility services provide convenient methods of transport for short trips, increase access to public transport, reduce the number of cars on the road, and lower one’s environmental footprint.d Yulu is an Indian startup providing electric bicycles to reduce traffic in Indian cities.e Connectivity 5G connectivity Liberty Latin 5G technology is a new standard in cellular networks that provides low and data America latency (delay time) coverage for big data streams that power IoT devices, infrastructure autonomous vehicles, augmented reality, and virtual reality. Liberty Latin America is a leading communications company operating in more than 20 countries across Latin America and the Caribbean that acquired AT&T’s wireless and wireline operations in Puerto Rico in 2020 and offers 5G connectivity in the country.f Edge computing Red Hat Edge computing is a distributed computation framework that brings data processing applications closer to data sources from centralized data centers.g A network that includes edge computing tends to be more reliable and faster than one without and places less demand on network connectivity and Internet bandwidth use. Red Hat offers edge computing platforms on which edge-based applications for smart cities can be built and deployed.h Industrial IoT Honeywell Although consumers are the most frequent users of the IoT, it can also Forge be used for industrial purposes such as manufacturing, supply chain monitoring, and management systems. Honeywell offers Honeywell Forge, a software solution that helps industry leaders see data coming from all parts of their operations so that they can transform their operations quickly and efficiently.i Drivers and Signals of Change 20 CATEGO RY SIG N AL E XA MP L E E X A M P L E D E TA I L Connectivity Satellite imagery EARTH-i Satellite images are used to observe transport situations and help with and data infrastructure development decisions. EARTH-i helps companies and infrastructure governments make better decisions by providing them with geospatial (Continued) insight at a global scale. Some use cases that EARTH-i has introduced include preconstruction surveys and monitoring for maintenance.j Ground Autonomous Motional Motional manufactures autonomous vehicles that will accelerate the mobility vehicles transition from traditional to smart cities, with autonomous and electric shuttles replacing traditional public transport. With the decrease in use of privately owned cars and the increase in deployment of these shuttles, emissions and congestion from transport will decrease. Electric vehicles Tesla Tesla designs and manufactures electric vehicles that have environmental benefits over hybrid vehicles and internal combustion engine vehicles because they reduce noise and greenhouse gas emissions. Electric vehicles can actively promote development of the smart grid via two- way communications by deploying vehicle-to-grid and grid-to-vehicle communication. Hyperloop Virgin Hyperloop is a proposed high-speed transport system for passengers Hyperloop and freight. Virgin Hyperloop conducted the first human trial in November 2020 at its test site in Las Vegas, reaching a top speed of 172 km/h (107 mph). Three- Run2Rail A new European project is using carbon fiber and three-dimensional dimensional printing to design lighter, sturdier trains. If successful, the Run2Rail team printing could prove that three-dimensional printing methods and composite materials can be used to design trains that are more reliable, lighter, less damaging to tracks, more comfortable, and less noisy, all while reducing material waste. Three- Boring Elon Musk’s Boring Company is developing a three-dimensional network dimensional Company tunnel consisting of a series of underground tunnels to serve electric network tunnel vehicles and reduce traffic. Las Vegas has provided approval for the project to be built. Air travel Flying cars AeroMobil The AeroMobil Company was established in 2010 to design, develop, and commercially introduce the world’s first flying car, which is scheduled for early 2023 and allows for traditional driving abilities on the ground coupled with the ability to fly In the air. Solar airplane Solar Impulse Solar Impulse is the first solar-powered airplane to fly around the world. After 14 months of travel and 550 hours in the air, it had traveled 25,000 miles around the world—two continents, two oceans, three seas—without any liquid fuel. Drones DJI DJI is one of the world’s leading drone manufacturers, with more than 50 percent of the global commercial drone market.k Drones can be used for everything from environmental monitoring to traffic management to provide cost-effective services to local governments. Gondola lift TransMiCable Bogota’s first urban gondola, TransMiCable, is a 3.34-km ropeway that is projected to benefit 700,000 residents living in some of the city’s most disadvantaged neighborhoods, making it the primary mobility option. The system is expected to reduce trips by up to 50 minutes, reducing a 1-hour bus trip to a 13-minute cable car journey. Drivers and Signals of Change 21 Note: 5G=fifth generation; AI=artificial intelligence; IoT=Internet of things. a. “City Brain, a New Architecture of Smart City Based on the Internet Brain.” Accessed September 6, 2022. https://arxiv.org/ ftp/arxiv/papers/1710/1710.04123.pdf. b. The metaverse is an iteration of the Internet as a single, universal, immersive virtual world facilitated by the use of virtual reality and augmented reality headsets to enable three-dimensional modeling and social engagement (Wikipedia. “Metaverse.” Accessed September 6, 2022. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Metaverse). c. “China: New CBDC Trials Indicate Pivot toward Environmental Sustainability.” Accessed November 3, 2022. https://crypto. news/china-cbdc-trials-environmental-sustainability/. d. CB Insights. “The Micromobility Revolution: How Bikes and Scooters Are Shaking Up Urban Transport Worldwide.” Ac- cessed September 9, 2022. https://www.cbinsights.com/research/report/micromobility-revolution/. e. “Discover 5 Emerging Micromobility Startups.” Accessed November 3, 2022. https://www.startus-insights.com/innova- tors-guide/discover-5-emerging-micromobility-startups/. g. “What Is Edge Computing?” Accessed November 3, 2022. https://www.ibm.com/cloud/what-is-edge-computing. h. “Red Hat Edge.” Accessed November 3, 2022. https://www.redhat.com/en/products/edge. i. “Intelligent Operations For Industrial Transformation.” Accessed November 3, 2022. https://www.honeywellforge.ai/us/en/ industries/industrial. j. “Infrastructure Monitoring.” Accessed November 3, 2022. https://earthi.space/use-cases/infrastructure-monitoring/. k. “DroneAnalyst Report Reveals Dramatic Drop in DJI’s Commercial Drone Market Share.” Accessed November 3, 2022. https://dronedj.com/2021/09/14/droneanalyst-dji-market-share-2021/. Drivers and Signals of Change 22 Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas The next step in Foresight is scenario development, using drivers and signals as building elements. The market is complex, with many drivers operating in and affecting the transport sector simultaneously. With the trend toward automation and analytics in the transport sector to optimize operations, we chose technology development as a key driver of the future of mobility. Meanwhile, the COVID-19 pandemic has had downstream impacts in many areas, and we wanted to understand those impacts on transportation, so pandemic frequency was chosen as the other major driver. The team used those key trend areas of technology devel- opment and pandemic frequency as the critical axes and developed scenarios based on imaginable extreme situations for those two axes (Figure 7). Because of the complexity of relationships between an infinite number of factors, future pos- sibilities vary widely, so the process entails making additional assumptions based on many uncertainties and possibilities. For example, it was assumed that basic infrastructure such as roads existed in the regions of the scenarios. Even though reasonable attempts were made to guess the most common situations in Latin America and the Caribbean based on research, the assumptions do not necessarily hold true in some areas. With this in mind, when discussing scenarios in a specific region, uncertainties must be modified and updated through further analyses so that scenarios are relevant to the context. Figure 8 introduces major uncertainties that had to be considered when developing the scenarios for this report. Personas are fictional characters created to illustrate the potential types of users involved with the topic of the exercise—the future of smart mobility—to capture their complexities and examine how they might behave in the future, given the different scenarios. Creating personas highlights users’ needs, experiences, behaviors, and goals while personalizing the underlying quantitative and qualitive data so that these scenarios can come to life. It also makes it easier to envision and interact with the various scenarios by capturing the texture and details. The four personas identified in this ecosystem were a commuter, an urban plan- ner, the CEO of a mobility solutions firm, and a Transport Ministry official. Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 23 F I G U R E 7. Scenarios According to Key Uncertainties: Technology Development and Future Pandemics Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 24 F I G U R E 8. Examples of Uncertainties with a Role in the Future of Smart Mobility in Latin America and the Caribbean CONNECTIVITY, E.G., 6G/5G/4G/3G/2G PANDEMIC FREQUENCY & AFFORDABLE What will be the level of connectivity in urban ACCESS TO VACCINES and rural areas in 2030, and what role–if any– Will governments be able to manage recurring will satellite internet access have in improving pandemics with continued public health accessibility? policy measures, and will they have access to effective, affordable vaccines as needed? INFRASTRUCTURE, E.G., ROADS HUMAN RESOURCES What will be the quality and availability of Will governments be able to attract and retain high-quality, safe infrastructure, especially the type of digital skills they require to adopt given destabilizing phenomena such as smart mobility solutions and capabilities? climate change? POLITICAL STABILITY & TECHNOLOGY BUDGET PRIORITIES How will COVID-19 and climate change affect Will COVID-19 and climate change affect governments’ ability to fund innovative political stability? Will the public sector adopt mobility projects? How will governments and open source? Will cybersecurity capabilities communities sustain forward momentum in support increasingly complex digitalization times of budgetary constraint? efforts? TECHNOLOGY DEVELOPMENT Will technological development be concentrated within private sector firms, or will governments be able to unlock technology for public smart mobility? What incentives and preconditions will need to be met? Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 25 Personas for Smart Mobility Foresight in Latin America and the Caribbean 45-year-old employee trying to get to work » I depend on multimodal public transport (bus, train, walking) to get to work so that I can earn money for my family. I am unable to pay for higher-priced on-demand rides. » My commuting experience is poor. There’s always lots of traffic, big crowds, bad air quality, interruptions for maintenance upgrades, and delays in each mode of trans- port. I have to leave the house very early to avoid delays and get to work on time. COMMUTER » Safety concerns in public transport have been discussed in my city for a long time, Lucia but I don’t see great improvements. 32-year-old urban planner trying to fix and upgrade the city’s transit system » I meet with multiple stakeholders such as public transport users, local government officials, and private companies to determine their priorities to make public transit efficient and safe. » It’s hard to find consensus and coordinate stakeholder demands and funding priori- ties while trying to make our transport system smart, reliable, and accessible. URBAN PLANNER » I want to bring high-tech options into the service but don’t know how, and there are Miguel many legacy structures that are difficult to change. 52-year-old CEO leading an app-based rideshare service » My service depends on technology and the underlying infrastructure to work with. It’s hard to avoid all the red tape of running a business while making a profit. » I want to be innovative and improve the app by using the city’s big data, although it’s not always up to date and reliable. » My business has suffered because of the pandemic, and people are not travelling as much as they used to. The pandemic and resulting policy changes make it diffi- CEO OF MOBILITY cult to predict the number of users. Also, pressure has increased to make sure it’s SOLUTIONS safe, reliable, and fast. Maria 62-year-old Transport Ministry official » I’m trying to catch up on new priorities of current ministers, but policy priorities change frequently as a result of elections. The least amount of change is most manageable, but I feel pressure to upgrade the transport infrastructure. » There isn’t much money in the budget this year, so I need to prioritize policies while coordinating relationships with national and local politicians. Which investments do I support? TRANSPORT MINISTRY OFFICIAL » My foremost priority is to make transport safe and reliable, which is a big challenge Ricardo I deal with. Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 26 SCENARIO A The Gap Between Haves and Have-Nots Widens (Low Tech with Frequent Pandemics) – In 2030, most people who need to commute to work are vaccinated because of the fre- quency of pandemics caused by COVID-19 variants, which results in greater division of society in terms of health conditions, educational opportunities, and professional status, and the world has yet to determine how to manage this. – Frequent pandemics have created a world with less international trade, so the global technology gap has widened, and low-income countries have limited access to advanced technologies. Now the globe seems completely divided into two, and the lifestyle gap between them will increase for the foreseeable future. – Countries with the capacity to invent and manufacture vaccines try to supply the world, and other countries rely completely on those countries and COVAX-type international pooled procurement mechanisms. The geopolitical influence from China is evident in terms of vaccine supply, and the United States invests more than any other country in Latin America and the Caribbean. – In most economies, technology development is centered on concerns related to pan- demics and includes some autonomous vehicles for safer, cleaner individual transport. Food and e-commerce delivery has increased over the past decade, resulting in devel- opment of autonomous delivery vehicles and drones. Legal and regulatory modifications support and accommodate these developments through an administrative process accelerated by general concerns related to frequent pandemics. – Even within countries, the gap between rich and poor has widened. White collar employ- ees maintain their lifestyle with remote work in less-dense areas, whereas employees in industries requiring their physical presence must choose whether to change jobs at the cost of temporary income loss or stay in their industry and face the risk of infection. Education suffers because of school closures, especially for poor people, because of lack of remote education access and the need to support their families. – Fare collection on public transport remains largely a low-technology process, with fare cards that can be preloaded and refilled using cash or mobile money. Paper processes and cash transactions continue, especially in rural areas. Contact tracing of outbreaks linked to public transport remains a manual process, conducted via phone calls and in-person interviews. – Governments often have a difficult time coordinating their policies and gaining national consensus, resulting in frequent political conflict. Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 27 » I feel unsafe taking public transport; it’s unreliable and not regularly maintained. » I rely on public transport and cannot afford private sector solutions. Sometimes I’m unable to go to work when public transport is not available. » Many of my colleagues who take public transport have been getting sick because of exposure to viruses in crowded spaces. COMMUTER Lucia » It’s really frustrating to promote public transport when the pandemic and the eco- nomic situation are unpredictable. » Spending money on reducing pandemic risk is the priority, and disinfection is done manually rather than investing in upgrades. » To ensure that smart city initiatives succeed, I need to work with the private sector URBAN PLANNER to offer innovative, cost-saving solutions. Miguel » It’s difficult to access the capital to provide highly innovative solutions that serve the public. » I’m finding myself spending more money on making the transport service safer than on adding innovations and upgrades, requiring that I pivot in my business model. » The customer base is unpredictable because of frequent lockdowns as a result of pandemics. CEO OF MOBILITY SOLUTIONS Maria » I don’t have a budget to provide the public with innovations in transport while trying to respond to frequent pandemics. » It’s difficult to promote public transport when people don’t feel safe taking it. There has been an increase in cars on the roads because of a preference for private rid- ership, and it’s affecting climate change commitments. TRANSPORT » I need to get creative to offer high-tech solutions, but the technology ecosystem is MINISTRY OFFICIAL still immature, and it seems like there are not many good options. Ricardo Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 28 SCENARIO B Hybrid Work Continues (High Tech with Frequent Pandemics) – In 2030, there are still frequent pandemics in various regions around the world, but society seems to have stabilized, supported by the evolutionary expansion of technolo- gies in all areas of the economy. The pandemics have catalyzed societal transformation through pressure on governments and companies to minimize infection risks. – Frequent pandemics have led to a global digital transformation. For example, fear of human interaction hastened the process of autonomous vehicle adaptation, with a preference for individual vehicles over mass transit, and the increase in demand for e-commerce and food delivery called for unprecedented investment and regulatory change in drones, which now can be seen everywhere. – A remote-based work style has become the default because many people can work from anywhere. Many people have moved to the countryside, reducing the urban population and increasing the suburban population. Companies in Latin America and the Caribbean leverage technologically skilled professionals from around the world because workers’ locations are not important anymore. In the meantime, Latin America and the Caribbean attract remote workers; the two most popular destinations are Medellin, Colombia, and Buenos Aires, Argentina, for their rich culture and digital infrastructure. – Some cities promote the “Crypto City” concept, whose aim is to build a city with a decentralized governance system. “Crypto City” minimizes the transaction costs of administrative processes by using distributed ledger technologies. – After work, people tend to stay in the metaverse, where human interaction, shopping, asset exchange, and entertainment are available, backed up by nonfungible tokens, without leaving home. Drones or robot cars deliver objects that are bought in the metaverse and deliver them within 1 to 2 hours. All became possible because of techno- logical development and regulatory reform, accelerated by frequent pandemics. – Fare collection on public transport moves to mobile devices, with passengers able to pay using a digital wallet. Public health authorities use fare collection data to forecast pandemics using AI and machine learning. – Privacy concerns and cybersecurity risks are not addressed, and the potential for gov- ernment monitoring of everyone’s movements is a long-standing challenge, although most consumers have lost interest in this topic. Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 29 » I want to be productive while commuting to my job. This influences my transport decision making because many companies provide add-on services during my commute, such as entertainment, shopping, doing errands, paying bills. » I do not have to use public transport alone because I can afford ridesharing and on-demand ride systems once in a while since the cost has decreased, although it is still expensive for me. COMMUTER Lucia » As remote work becomes the default, we are considering removing noncritical transport infrastructure. » I have needed to add ventilation and health compliance to make sure transport is safe during pandemics on all modes of transport. » I can use data collected through the transport ecosystem to optimize the trans- URBAN PLANNER port mode, but I must be diligent about protecting data privacy and ensuring cybersecurity. Miguel » How do I handle the liability if someone gets sick on my ride? I must ensure that health and safety measures are monitored and enforced. » I’m adding pandemic tracking as part of my service suite so my customers feel safer. » I have heard that a major competitor of mine just terminated its service. The trans- port market size is unpredictable because of the pandemic. CEO OF MOBILITY SOLUTIONS Maria » It’s difficult to determine the best investment for my budget. I’m choosing high tech and high safety, which requires pandemic monitoring technologies for public transport. » I feel pressure to choose between strong sustainability standards and safety during pandemics. » I’ve found myself working increasingly with city officials to make transport safe. TRANSPORT MINISTRY OFFICIAL Ricardo Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 30 SCENARIO C Return to Business as Usual (Low Tech without Pandemics) – The years when the pandemic was widespread are treated as a unique period in history by 2030, and things are returning to normal, with social trends from before COVID-19, such as urbanization and mass transport, returning. Transportation modes are a contin- uation of current modes rather than a complete transformation. – Investment in transport technology keeps growing because attention is being paid to greenhouse gas emissions and urbanization, although international bodies and gov- ernments are finding it difficult to develop a national strategy to set a clear direction for industry because of political disagreement. – Pressure to boost climate adaptation encourages people to adopt nonmotorized trans- port modes such as walking and cycling, which requires modifications in rules and legislation to ensure safety. – In response to climate change, people have begun to give up cars and use public trans- port, increasing the use of mass transit, car sharing, and on-demand ride services. When necessary, people rent cars or call an on-demand service, especially in urban areas. Three-dimensional printing and investment in new carbon materials has created more efficient, environmentally friendly, cheap rail service. – The transport industry is still labor intensive in most cities, and advanced mobility solu- tions such as autonomous vehicles are available only in the largest cities (Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Buenos Aires, Bogota, Santiago), where technological capability and the necessary infrastructure, such as fifth- and sixth-generation mobile telecommunications technology are available. Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 31 » I just want to get to my job on time and without hassle at the lowest cost; the usability and efficiency of public transport have not changed drastically in the past decade even though the government stresses its efforts to adopt emerging tech- nologies in transport. » I use public transport; even though it’s not always reliable, it’s the most cost-effec- tive option for me. COMMUTER » I wish the government would invest in safe, eco-friendly solutions for public transport. Lucia » I feel like transport-related industries are not eager to change. Digital transforma- tion has been a hot topic since the late 2010s, but I’ve had a hard time creating consensus among stakeholders in public transport. » Climate change–related technology is easy to implement because of strong inter- est of politicians. » I wish I could promote technologies that lead consumer behavioral changes, such URBAN PLANNER as real-time transport monitoring to make public transport more convenient, so we Miguel can curb emissions. » How do I provide the best, most-innovative service when it is hard to get govern- ment support to implement? How can I collaborate with governments better? » I need to be creative to obtain funds for my real-time apps so I can provide better, timely customer service. » Climate change has been a major factor in the transport sector, and maybe I need CEO OF MOBILITY to diversify the services that I offer so they are carbon free, such as bicycle sharing SOLUTIONS services. Maria » Because the pandemic is not the biggest concern anymore, people have started to move around again, and carbon dioxide emissions have increased. Climate change is again the administration’s greatest concern. » The roads are safer than 10 years ago. Monitoring mechanisms in urban areas are reliable and accepted. TRANSPORT » I need to be creative and develop strategies to encourage private sector participa- MINISTRY OFFICIAL tion in eco-friendly transport solutions. Ricardo Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 32 SCENARIO D Private Sector Blossoms (High Tech without Pandemics) – In 2030, people barely remember when COVID-19 was widespread around the globe. Technology has gained political support and the funding necessary to make society more digitized and data driven. – AI-based data analysis services have become a critical part of local decision making for city planning. Data from individual vehicles are collected through IoT devices and traded in a distributed ledger technology–based ecosystem for local administrative processes and for the private sector to develop services and products. – Technologies to solve challenges related to demographic and climate change have advanced drastically. Increased investment has enabled innovative projects to provide inclusive transport and decrease temperatures globally. – Flying cars are becoming closer to reality. Some countries with strong technological capability have implemented legal and regulatory reforms for this new mode of trans- port. International travel by flying cars is still not allowed in 2030, although it is expected that it will be soon. – Fare collection on public transport has moved to mobile devices, with passengers able to pay using a digital wallet. On days when air quality is poor, fares for public transport automatically decrease to encourage citizens to use greener modes of transport. Buses and trains are powered almost entirely with renewable resources (e.g., solar, green hydrogen, wind). – Several startups, backed up by local finance, have developed new transport modes and merged with tech giants. Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 33 » I feel safe taking public transport and see that real-time monitoring and services make using it an easy choice. The rapid bus is so affordable that I am able to use it regularly. » Although I do not know much about technology, the benefit I am gaining through data-sharing platforms and AI is apparent, and I do not have much concern about privacy. COMMUTER » I am still skeptical about the safety of new transport modes such as flying cars. Lucia » I am able to develop strategies to implement efficiency upgrades and real-time monitoring of transport systems. » Transport upgrades have led to people viewing public transport as reliable and efficient and the most cost-effective choice for most people, particularly poor and vulnerable people. » People are interested in advanced transport modes, but I do not believe we can URBAN PLANNER propose such modes anytime soon, mainly because of lack of funding. Miguel » Smart mobility has become a huge investment trend because of government sup- port of transport system upgrades. » Private companies, including mine, are seeing the widening gap between existing public transport systems and what society wants as a huge business opportunity. » My goal is to develop an app-based service in the region and sell the business to a tech giant that can implement the solution in other countries. CEO OF MOBILITY SOLUTIONS Maria » My work portfolio is completely different from that of 10 years ago. Automated main- tenance of the transport system is fully functional, and I do not need to worry about it much. » I am confident about my expertise in tech infrastructure and can start planning for autonomous vehicles while retraining people for the workforce of the future. » Budgetary restrictions are still a challenge but in a different way than before. The TRANSPORT region’s dependency rate is expected to start to rise sometime soon, and we may MINISTRY OFFICIAL face an economic downturn. We need to create a sustainable budgetary strategy. Ricardo Scenarios, Uncertainties, and Personas 34 Key Takeaways and the Role of Governments Key Takeaways The Foresight exercise provided some useful takeaways. 1. Technology is key to shaping the future. • Regardless of the pandemic situation, investment in technology can lead to better transport systems, although technological solutions are different under each scenario. • Data collection, management, and use are key components in high-technol- ogy scenarios, and sensitive data handling and cybersecurity are going to become priorities for government organizations and private companies. 2. Frequent pandemics are triggers for social transformation. • Frequent pandemics widen the economic gap within and between countries and create a weak, unpredictable customer base, leading to a decrease in funding. Pandemics create momentum for drastic policy change to update transport through regulatory reform and support of safe transport. • Frequent pandemics will cause technology to become completely differ- ent. More-individual and -automated transport options become the default. Without frequent pandemics, the future transport system is expected to be similar to the current one. 3. Climate change will be a key driver of policy consensus. • Under scenarios of less-frequent pandemics, climate change remains a major political concern, which helps politicians reach policy consensus to advance greener transport. Pressure for climate adaptation generates investment in upgrading mobility solutions, which focus on mass transit and environmen- tally friendly mobility modes such as walking and cycling. • With increased concerns about climate change and mass transport becom- ing the default, car ownership and use decreases drastically, changing urban landscapes. 4. Demographic change significantly influences the future of mobility. • Latin America’s and the Caribbean’s dependency rate is expected to start to rise in the 2030s, and the favorable demographic “window” will close.19 This change requires a long-term sustainable budgetary strategy for governments to account 19 World Bank. “When We’re Sixty-Four: Opportunities and Challenges for Public Policies in a Population-Aging Context in Latin America.” Accessed September 9, 2022. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/34562. Key Takeaways and the Role of Governments 35 for limited budgetary resources. Also, governments will be requested to provide access to transport modes for vulnerable groups. • Because of limitations in public resources, the role that the private sector plays in providing transport becomes much larger, and hiring technology experts may become difficult for certain companies. Role of National and Regional Governments The team developed recommendations for national and regional government entities,20 but because this report’s Foresight exercise was held at a high level, it did not incorporate spe- cific country contexts. ROLE OF NATIONAL GOVERNMENTS 1. Develop national strategies to foster smart mobility through strategic investment, consumer protection, and standard setting. • Invest in research and development of technology infrastructure and building blocks for smart mobility. • Support new requirements for consumer protection, data privacy, and explain- ability of algorithms to avoid bias and data exclusion errors. • Establish data-exchange mechanisms through standard setting and encour- age open data. 2. Bridge the gap between haves and have-nots that COVID-19 exacerbated. • Seek ways to address inequalities by making mobility more affordable and convenient for poor people. 3. Refer to smart mobility scenarios to develop an action roadmap suitable for cities by considering local context. • Components specific to this Foresight exercise such as key uncertainties, drivers, and signals of change should be fine-tuned for future iterations depending on the local context. • Consult with technology stack (Appendix A) and smart mobility examples (Appendix B) in this report to determine implications and ideas for policy development. 20 These recommendations are not exhaustive. Key Takeaways and the Role of Governments 36 ROLE OF REGIONAL GOVERNMENTS 1. Pursue social innovations through partnerships with the private sector, communities, and academia to encourage digital solutions. • Develop infrastructure and policies to encourage all stakeholders to play a larger role in enabling smart mobility. Deepen knowledge of technology-enabled busi- ness and funding models. • Explore ways to close the gap between existing skills and skills needed to develop emerging technologies, considering that use of emerging technologies requires expertise. 2. Anticipate and mitigate emerging technology risks. • Support and certify data protection and cybersecurity for technology lifecycles. • Ensure and encourage responsible adoption of emerging technologies following national and international standards. 3. Address digital exclusion in mobility. • Ensure access to transport for vulnerable groups such as the urban poor, women and girls, older adults, and digitally unconnected groups. Key Takeaways and the Role of Governments 37 Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans This section introduces some ideas and frameworks for developing action plans as sources of inspiration. The Foresight exercise conducted for this report was not intended to create action plans for any specific city because action plans depend on local context. Readers should use these inspirations as a starting point for the process of developing concrete action plans. Assessing Gaps Between Current and Future Status of Smart Mobility To develop a roadmap for future actions, smart mobility maturity dimensions (Figure 9) should be considered. Users will be able to measure and address gaps between the current and future state of smart mobility by using these dimensions: 1. Leadership and governance 2. Stakeholder engagement and citizen focus 3. Effective use of data 4. Integrated information and communications technology infrastructure 5. Existing levels of smartness There are two steps users can take to leverage smart mobility maturity dimensions. In the first step, the current state of these five dimensions is mapped out, and smart mobility goals are mapped against the current state, processed, and tailored accordingly. In the second step, users gain insight from global best practices of similar cities and countries, and a smart mobility vision and strategy are developed. A goal map shows stakeholders what they need to accomplish and allows them to strategize on how to accomplish them. Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 38 F I G U R E 9. Smart Mobility Maturity Dimensions Smart Mobility Framework 1ST STEP 2ND STEP SMART MOBILITY MATURITY ASSESSMENT SMART MOBILITY STRATEGY & PRIORITIZATION • Current state baseline across all smart mobility maturity • Global best practice insights & comparisons to similar cities dimensions (#1-5) • Smart mobility ideation, vision, and strategy • Future smart mobility ambitions articulated in line with • Prioritized roadmap & business case to execute smart expectations of maturity mobility goals • Processed results and tailored analysis 5. 1. Existing Leadership and levels of governance 'Smartness' Smart Mobility Maturity 4. Dimensions 2. Integrated Stakeholder ICT engagement Infrastructure and citizen focus 3. E ective use of data Adapted from https://home.kpmg/au/en/home/insights/2017/11/smart-city-maturity-assessment.html Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 39 Defining Future Technology Capabilities and Architecture Emerging technologies are a critical component of smart mobility. This report covers sev- eral frequently used technologies, including autonomous vehicles, drones, the metaverse, AI, blockchain, and IoT. Figure 10 illustrates the use of these technologies, divided into two categories. • The first category is primary area of opportunity, where technologies that work as infrastructure or generic enablers are located. • The second category is secondary area of opportunity, in which more complicated technologies that require combinations of elements from the first category are classi- fied. Appendix A provides detailed descriptions of some of these technologies. Figure 11 illustrates a generalized technology architecture designed to handle data through various layers. Digital device users and citizens living in the city produce data, which are collected and initially handled through technology devices such as street cameras and smartphones and transmitted via IoT. Data collected in the technology layer are then stored in the data layer, where they can be merged and integrated with additional data, such as identity data. When various types of data are integrated, they can be used to develop tech- nology capabilities such as AI in the capability layer. Finally, capabilities developed based on data will be used to provide a smart mobility experience to users and citizens through solutions in application layers. Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 40 F I G U R E 10 . Smart Technology Building Blocks Secondary area of Autonomous Drones Digital Twin opportunity Metaverse vehicles Unmanned aerial vehicles Technologies dependent on data infrastructure, AI, • Connected autonomous • Traffic & city monitoring • Citizen and engagement • Digital representation of connectivity, & real-time vehicles • Fast, safe delivery services mobility across cities, regions, compute. • Traffic pattern optimization • Need AI, infrastructure connectivity, • Augmented and virtual reality countries, connected • Driver & pedestrian safety edge computing capabilities • Need infrastructure – mobile • Less energy consumption • Need infrastructure: mobile broadband, AI, IoT, three- broadband, AI, IoT, digital twins dimensional mapping • Need AI & infrastructure connectivity, edge computing Primary area of opportunity Blockchain Edge computing Invest in data • Blockchain-based Internet of vehicles • High-speed computing near the user & data locations. infrastructure, IoT, and high-speed mobile • Secure, trustworthy ride sharing & car-pooling • Computer resource distribution across networks broadband required for connection and handling Data platforms Artificial intelligence (AI) data for optimization • Big data analytics for city management • Traffic management • Open data initiative for public and private use • Surveillance and security • Three-dimensional geographic data to include locations and maps to • Administration & planning management connect entire mobility infrastructure Infrastructure connectivity  Internet of things (IoT) • Enhanced mobile broadband • Smart utility meters • Required infrastructure for massive IoT solutions • Traffic monitoring • Real-time autonomous vehicle navigation • Smart grids • Low earth orbit and medium earth orbit satellites providing connectivity • Water level monitoring • Video surveillance • Connected streetlights Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 41 FIGURE 11. Generalized technology architecture USERS AND CITIZENS Application Layer Multimodal Micro Central bank digital currency for (including Smart City solutions) transport mobility transport Street Smart cameras Self-driving car Drone Mobility as Shared Automated surveillance On-demand rides a service mobility public transport (tra c) Smart High Artificial phones Flying car Smart Crypto city Cable Optimized speed rail intelligence-based ports transport bus & train city planning Technology Layer Connectivity S E C UR I T Y POLICIES Sensors Capability Three-dimensional Augmented, virtual, Three-dimensional Metaverse & Mobility web 3.0 Layer geographic imaging Digital twin & mixed reality print manufacturing for transport parts technology analytics Internet of things Nonfungible Artificial Quantum Robotics & Edge Electric Blockchain tokens for intelligence computing automation computing mobility & tokens financing Connected cars Data Layer Identity Tra c Location Satellite data patterns data imagery Weather Demo Map data data graphic data Data-sharing Data-sharing standards protocol Disclaimer: For illustrative purposes only. Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 42 Incorporating Time Needed for Technology Adoption Figure 12 illustrates how technologies could be classified according to time needed to adopt and the importance of considering that time when implementing policies to enable tech- nologies. The speed of technology adoption changes according to future discoveries and national and municipal contexts. F I G U R E 12 . Timeline for Adoption of Technological Applications for Smart Mobility Micro-mobility, Connected mobility Tra c infrastructure Three-dimensional Robotics Metaverse on-demand rides infrastructure monitoring with printing for transport services capabilities for Internet of things parts transport, augmented sensors, drones & virtual reality Digital solutions for Cities platform AI for predictive Enhanced mobile Blockchain tokens Quantum computing shared mobility maintenance & safety broadband and crypto cities Digital twins, Edge Electric mobility and Mobility analytics AI in tra c Flying three-dimensional Computing low carbon/carbon and prediction management cars spatial imaging neutral Multimodal mobility AI in surveillance AI-based planning, Fifth-and Connected and Satellite shared mobility, & security optimized sixth-generation autonomous Connectivity mobility as a service infrastructure connectivity vehicles NEAR TERM TIME TO ADOPTION LONG TERM (1-3 years) (3-7 years) (7-15+ years) Disclaimer: Technical adoption speed may vary depending on a social context. The diagram above is for illustrative purpos- es only. Note: AI=artificial intelligence Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 43 Another way to include time needed for technology adoption is a hype cycle (Figure 13), which is a graphic used to represent the maturity, adoption, and social application of a tech- nology. Lessons learned in the market are incorporated before the technologies move to the plateau of productivity and become mainstream. F I G U R E 13 . Hype Cycle for Connected Vehicles and Smart Mobility 5G Digital Personalization Flying Autonomous Vehicles In-Vehicle Advanced UX and UI Blockchain and loT Data Marketplaces and eSIM Exchanges Micromobility expectations Mobility as a Service Virtual Assistants Connected Car Platforms Automotive Real-Time Data Analytics Autonomous Vehicle Percestion Sustem Automotive Lidar HD Maps In-Vehicle Services Electric Vehicles Autonomous Vehicles Over-the Air Software Uodates Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure Driver Monitoring Systems Vehicle-to-Vehicle Communications Continuous Software Deployment Peak of Trough of Slope of Plateau of Innovation Inflated Disillusionment Enlightenment Productivity Trigger Expectations time Plateau will be reached: less than 2 years 2–5 years 5–10 years more than 10 years Source: Gartner. “2020 Hype Cycle for Connected and Smart Mobility.” Accessed March 2022. https://www.sae.org/ news/2020/09/2020-hype-cycle-for-connected-vehicles-and-smart-mobility. Key takeaways • Gartner Inc.’s annual Hype Cycle has become a much- a service, and virtual assistants have become mainstays of anticipated metric of the maturity and market viability of smart mobility. numerous technologies related to automated driving and • “Over the next five years or so, many technologies on this new mobility. Hype Cycle will become productive parts of the automotive • For 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted the and smart-mobility ecosystem.” Prediction for 2025 technology-development chain. • Data marketplaces and exchanges, blockchain, the Internet of things, digital personification, micro-mobility, mobility as Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 44 Designing F I G U R E 14. Sample Action Roadmap for Smart Mobility an Action SHORT-TERM MID-TERM LONG-TERM Roadmap Goals and elements of the (1–3 years) (3–7 years) (7–15+ years) future you want to make • Perform community outreach • Invest in drones to monitor • Metaverse - invest in citizen • Smart infrastructure An action roadmap should for priorities, digital training • traffic patterns and engagement services • Safe infrastructure be developed to start to • Invest in electric mobility & low • Invest in digital twins, three- for transport and supporting • Climate resilient determine priorities aligned infrastructure carbon solutions dimensinal geographic mapping • Low carbon or carbon with goals and technology • Develop integrated information • Invest in autonomous vehicle • Invest in augmented, virtual, & neutral capabilities in the short, and communications mixed reality capabilities medium, and long term infrastructure, computer vision, • Community accessibility & (Figure 14). Goals and technology infrastructure to AI capabilities, connectivity, • Invest in autonomous vehicles, inclusiveness elements of the future support innovation edge computing connected autonomous include cleaner environment, • Open public data through data • Exploring blockchain economy, vehicles, & supporting climate resiliency, sharing standards and protocols tokens to encourage consumer infrastructure sustainable transport • Invest in three-dimensional behavior & nonfungible tokens • Invest in & develop robotics systems, inclusivity, and geographic data to include for financing capabilities in transport sector safety. This is a starting point locations and maps to connect • Continue developing data • Develop further automation and is meant to be enhanced entire mobility infrastructure platform infrastructure and AI capabilities in transport sector and reiterated as emerging • Develop data platforms capabilities for forecasting and capabilities become effective infrastructure, three- prediction and local, regional, and dimensional geographic • Continue developing national priorities change. mapping connectivity infrastructure • Develop connectivity, mobile • Continue investing in IoT broadband infrastructure solutions and edge computing • Invest in IoT sensors to connect to support high-speed infrastructure computing near user & data • Invest in edge computing locations • Develop AI capabilities for traffic management, surveillance, planning, maintenance, safety • Explore blockchain capabilities Adapted from Institute for the Future “Foresight Toolkit” Note: AI=artificial intelligence; IoT=Internet of things. Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 45 Appendices Inspirations to Develop Future Action Plans 46 APPENDIX A Emerging Technology Opportunities Artificial Intelligence Artificial intelligence (AI) is critical technology with great potential to change smart mobility. Urban AI can be defined as “artifacts operating in cities, which are capable of acquiring and making sense of information on the surrounding urban environment, eventually using the acquired knowledge to act rationally according to pre-defined goals, in complex urban situations when some information might be missing or incomplete.”21 It is expected that AI will enable more than 30 percent of smart city applications, powering the top urban mobility solutions by 2025.22 AI in Surveillance and Security AI-powered surveillance systems have capabilities such as face recognition, license plate recognition, suspicious behavior alert, and traffic misconduct alert. AI in Traffic Management AI-enabled traffic management solutions vary widely. For example, AI has introduced smart traffic signals that adjust their timing according to the flow of traffic to respond to real-time traffic, reducing road congestion. Route optimization and real-time forecasting allow com- puter vision models to capture dynamic changes in traffic and document congestion flow as vehicles move throughout the day. Connected cars can communicate with parking meters and electric vehicle charging docks and direct drivers to the nearest available spot. AI-based computer vision applications identify objects through surveillance cameras and can detect vehicles that disobey traffic laws such as by speeding or running a red light. AI Administration and Planning Management AI networks provide a complete picture of population density and traffic flows around a city, which can help governments optimize resources for better urban planning. 21 F. Cugurullo. 2020. “Urban Artificial Intelligence: From Automation to Autonomy in the Smart City.” Frontiers in Sustainable Cities 2 (38). 22 D. Luckey, H. Fritz, D. Legatiuk, K. Dragos, and K. Smarsly. 2020. “Artificial Intelligence Techniques for Smart City Applica- tions.” International Conference on Computing in Civil and Building Engineering. Emerging Technology Opportunities 47 Internet of Things and Connectivity The Internet of things (IoT) is a network of physical objects with sensors, processing ability, software, and other technologies that connect and exchange data with other devices and systems over the Internet or other communications networks. The IoT is frequently used in smart mobility and smart cities. Connected sensors, lights, and meters collect and analyze data and combine them with other data to provide further real-time analysis to the city. Public sector entities and policy makers can leverage these data to improve infrastructure, public utilities, and services. Electric Vehicles and Charging Stations Electric vehicles are growing in use, and electric vehicle charging stations are being deployed at an increasing rate in smart cities. These charging stations are connected to a smart energy grid, allowing utility companies and cities to manage energy flow more effectively. Connected Vehicles The market for connected vehicles is growing fast, and adoption of smart transit is increas- ing in tandem. New York City is piloting a connected vehicle project to reduce traffic-related deaths and injuries and damage to vehicles and infrastructure. The connected vehicle infrastructure is focused on safety applications, relying on vehicle-to-vehicle, vehicle-to-in- frastructure, and infrastructure-to-pedestrian communications.23 Traffic Monitoring The IoT can help manage traffic flow. For example, to increase mobility on congested local highways and streets, the Los Angeles Department of Public Works implemented several multi-jurisdictional intelligent transport systems, embedding a network of sensors in the pavement that transmit real-time traffic updates to a traffic management platform that adjusts the timing of traffic signals to optimize traffic flow.24 Video Surveillance Smart video surveillance using cameras and IoT devices is commonly used to police roads and highways. Law enforcement uses automatic license plate recognition cameras to iden- tify stolen cars, for traffic control purposes, to collect tolls, and to deter crime.25 23 New York City Department of Transportation. 2018. “Connected Vehicle Technology Is Coming to the Streets of New York City! This Technology Holds the Potential to Make Our Streets Safer and Smarter.” NYC Connected Vehicle Project. Accessed October 18, 2021. https://cvp.nyc/. 24 “Traffic: Intelligent Transportation System.” Accessed October 18, 2021. https://dpw.lacounty.gov/TNL/ITS/. 25 Joe Appleton. “What Is IOT and Why Is It Important for Smart Cities?” The Global Smart City Knowledge Center. bee smart city GmbH. Accessed August 23, 2021. https://hub.beesmart.city/en/solutions/what-is-iot-and-why-is-it-important-for- smart-cities. Emerging Technology Opportunities 48 Connected Streetlights Cities are using connected streetlights to reduce energy and maintenance costs, increase public safety, and reduce environmental impact. Connected streetlights can be used to charge electric vehicles, monitor emissions, and provide wireless broadband connection points.26 Robotics Autonomous vehicles, also called driverless or self-driving cars, can navigate without a driver. They monitor their surroundings using a variety of technologies such as visual sensors, radar (using radio waves to determine range, velocity, and angle of objects), LiDAR (measuring distance by shining a laser onto a target), odometry, and night vision. The input is processed using AI and transformed into orders that the car systems execute without human interven- tion. Numerous technology companies, car manufacturers, and ride-sharing companies are collaborating to develop autonomous vehicles and supporting technologies. Connected autonomous vehicles, which use AI and real-time cloud-based data to choose the fastest, most-fuel-efficient routes, can help meet economic, social, and sustainability goals.27 They can be programmed to follow rules for maximum efficiency all the time—in contrast to human drivers, who tend to overuse the accelerator and brakes, which burns excessive fuel. Self-driving cars have the potential to cut energy consumption in transport by up to 90 percent. This is an economic and an environmental benefit, with reduced fuel consumption decreasing carbon emissions. 28 Drones offer many benefits, including cost-effective services such as environmental moni- toring and traffic management, offering real-time data on traffic conditions. They can also be used to inspect and maintain infrastructure and map out transport projects, create more-effi- cient bus routes, and identify good places for bike paths. 29 26 New York City Department of Transportation. 2018. “Connected Vehicle Technology Is Coming to the Streets of New York City! This Technology Holds the Potential to Make Our Streets Safer and Smarter.” NYC Connected Vehicle Project. Ac- cessed October 18, 2021. https://cvp.nyc/. 27 Hitachi. “The Keys to the Car Are Becoming the Keys to the Smart City.” https://social-innovation.hitachi/en-us/think-ahead/ transportation/autonomous-vehicles-and-smart-city/. 28 Hitachi. “The Keys to the Car Are Becoming the Keys to the Smart City.” https://social-innovation.hitachi/en-us/think-ahead/ transportation/autonomous-vehicles-and-smart-city/. 29 Daniel Browning. 2020. “UAVs Can Play a Vital Role in the Future of Smart Cities.” https://www.smartcitiesdive.com/news/ uavs-can-play-a-vital-role-in-the-future-of-smart-cities/586857/. Emerging Technology Opportunities 49 Blockchain Blockchain can enable many consumer applications. Collective ride sharing and car-pooling can be made more secure, transparent, and trustworthy through blockchain,30 which can combine multiple sources to verify drivers to create trust and accountability for passengers. Drivers receive authentication credentials in the form of a digital identity card that includes biographic and biometric data for verification. Smart contracts enable users to share their encrypted data with the blockchain network and enact transactions with other participants once both parties agree to transaction rules.31 Manufacturers of the systems that support autonomous vehicles to enhance safety measures are also using blockchain and smart con- tracts to ensure the authenticity and integrity of the firmware update process.32 Mobility as a Service Mobility as a service (MaaS) is a growing model that focuses on seamless integration of transport modes enabled by digital solutions. This integration covers transit-sharing services such as car sharing, ride sharing, bike sharing, buses, trains, trams, and scooters and can reduce the number of vehicles on the road.33 Major players in the on-demand ride indus- try have been integrating supplemental transport models such as electric bike and scooter services, often called micro-mobility, into their existing platforms, including rental services such as Uber Jump, Lyft Scooters, and GrabWheels. The model offers temporary use of var- ious means of transport without the user having to own a transport mode. With this model, consumers avoid expenses and challenges associated with ownership, such as capital and maintenance costs, insurance, and parking. Another benefit of MaaS platforms is that they integrate various mobility options, including prices and means of transport, into one ecosys- tem with a single payment method, streamlining the experience for consumers. 30 Thales. 2019. “Smart Mobility and the Blockchain.” https://dis-blog.thalesgroup.com/security/2019/02/04/smart-mobili- ty-blockchain/. 31 IEEExplore. 2018. “A Blockchain Framework for Smart Mobility.” https://ieeexplore.ieee.org/document/8656927. 32 “Enabling Technologies for Urban Smart Mobility: Recent Trends, Opportunities, and Challenges.” Accessed October 18, 2021, https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/21/6/2143. 33 European Commission. “Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy—Putting European Transport on Track for the Future.” Accessed October 16, 2022. https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-themes/mobility-strategy_en. Emerging Technology Opportunities 50 Digital Twins Digital twins34 will be an important component of three-dimensional mapping to simulate the urban environment, which will enable policy makers to preview how different investments, such as a transit system upgrade, might affect people and their environment. Important use cases include modelling traffic congestion strategies, mapping out the smart mobility infrastructure, and achieving net-zero climate goals by testing energy-saving technologies. Digital twins could reduce the need for corrections and adjustments once a project has been built, which can be expensive. According to a report by global tech market advisory firm ABI Research, digital twins could save cities US$280 billion by 2030.35 Metaverse A metaverse is “a collective virtual open space, created by the convergence of virtually enhanced physical and digital reality,”36 often leveraging augmented, virtual, and mixed reali- ties in three dimensions from the consumer point of view. Even though adoption of metaverse technology is in early stages, it is envisioned that various activities taking place in real life such as shopping, socializing, and building houses will eventually take place in the metaverse. Development of the metaverse also provides great potential with respect to smart mobility. The metaverse is nascent, but public- and private-sector entities are starting to explore and use it to engage with customers and promote brand potential. The smart mobility sector is also slowly leveraging metaverse technology and its applications. For example, Hyundai Mobility Adventure is the first virtual experience content on Roblox (a global gaming plat- form) developed by a global automotive brand to showcase future mobility lifestyles in the metaverse.37 U.K.-based carmaker Jaguar Land Rover uses augmented reality technology to train employees, such as teaching them how to repair cars in a virtual space.38 34 Digital twins are virtual models on which simulations of new policies or infrastructure projects can be run and their potential impacts previewed before making a decision in the real world. See https://www.bloomberg.com/news/fea- tures/2022-04-05/digital-twins-mark-cities-first-foray-into-the-metaverse. 35 ABI Research. “The Use of Digital Twins for Urban Planning to Yield US$280 Billion in Cost Savings By 2030.” Accessed October 15, 2022. https://www.abiresearch.com/press/use-digital-twins-urban-planning-yield-us280-billion-cost-sav- ings-2030/. 36 Ashutosh Gupta. 2022. “What is a Metaverse?” Gartner. Accessed March 15, 2022. https://www.gartner.com/en/articles/ what-is-a-metaverse. 37 “Hyundai Motor Vitalizes Future Mobility in Roblox Metaverse Space, Hyundai Mobility Adventure.” Accessed August 30, 2022. https://www.hyundai.com/worldwide/en/company/newsroom/hyundai-motor-vitalizes-future-mobility-in-rob- lox-metaverse-space%252C-hyundai-mobility-adventure-0000016713. 38 Shim Sung-mi and Koo Eun-seo. 2012. “Metaverse Makes Digital Nomads the New Norm.” The Korea Economic Daily Glob- al Edition. Accessed October 15, 2022. https://www.kedglobal.com/newsView/ked202105260007. Emerging Technology Opportunities 51 Electrification Adoption of electric vehicles is increasing rapidly because of the increase in public aware- ness of the need to protect the environment, as well as decreases in production costs. Replacing fossil fuels with electrification has been a major shift for the industry. Electrification helps create a cleaner urban space by reducing fossil fuel–related emissions (e.g., carbon dioxide, carbon monoxide, various nitrogen oxides, particulate matter), noise pollution, and waste associated with gas-powered vehicles. Electrification has also enabled micro-mobility solutions such as electric bikes and scooters for shorter trips and smart infrastructure such as photovoltaic roads and sidewalks. Quantum Computing Quantum computing allows calculations and computations to be performed much more quickly than on traditional computers. It is not yet a proven technology, but investment has been growing. National governments have invested more than US$25 billion in quantum computing research. Quantum bits, called qubits, can be in a mixed state, in which they are 1 and 0 at the same time, rather than only two possible states, as with binary language (1 and 0), which allows for a high compute state.39 Quantum computing can greatly affect many sectors of society at a fundamental level and be used with IoT devices to connect and improve how entire cities operate, with efficiency gains in public transport; rapidly verify IoT devices; and optimize IoT systems, with large amounts of data being transported over multiple networks.40 39 Cosmosmagazine. “Quantum Computing for the Qubit Curious.” Accessed October 15, 2022. https://cosmosmagazine. com/science/quantum-computing-for-the-qubit-curious/. 40 Riya Mehta. 2019. “Merging Technological Phenomena—The Era of Quantum Computing and Smart Technology.” Accessed October 15, 2022. https://medium.com/@riyamehta9001/merging-technological-phenomena-the-era-of-quantum-comput- ing-and-smart-technology-1ef8aaa5e30c. Emerging Technology Opportunities 52 APPENDIX B Smart Mobility: National and International Examples National-Level Use Cases Some countries have been promoting smart city policies since the 2010s. This appendix describes how various countries have created smart mobility strategies and set up their pillars, infrastructure, platforms, and applications to build smart cities. Table B.1 highlights national level use cases. The examples cited here are for illustrative purpose and are not exhaustive. TA B L E B . 1. Smart Mobility Components and Use Case Overview COUNTRY PIL L ARS I N FR AST R U C T U R E P L AT FO R M S EXAMPLES AS I A Japan • Eco-cities (Environmentally The data-driven smart • Data linkage platform Otsu City and Mount symbiotic cities) cities that Japan is • Super City can ask Hieizan: In addition • Transit-oriented working on involve a governments to to free digital passes development) bottom-up approach provide data for multiple public • Disaster-resilient cities to realizing data- • Data linkage platform transport systems, driven smart cities is required to follow providing MaaS that by integrating digital the safety standard can be used at hotels, transformation that is and open the APIs to tourist facilities, retail underway in various the public. stores, restaurants, etc. fields. This will also to promote excursions assure free, trustworthy, using public transport. credible norms by focusing on privacy and security. Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 53 COUNTRY PIL L ARS I N FR AST R U C T U R E P L AT FO R M S EXAMPLES South • Research development Korean Research Institute The government plans Several Cities started Korea • Smart Solution Challenge for Human Settlements to expand integrated to introduce platforms • Deregulation classified the Smart platform distribution to in various areas such City in three types: a 229 local governments as social welfare, • National pilot program for smart city equipped with nationwide by 2023 transportation, smart cities advanced infrastructure, and establish a regional water management, a platform-centered center that will serve better management smart city, and a smart as a hub by linking the etc. For example, city for innovation space. basic local government Seoul introduced a with police, fire brigade blockchain-based and ambulance service. platform to store The goal is to improve and verify citizen’s crime prevention, information; Busan disaster prevention, and created a platform for traffic operated by local monitoring the quality government of water Singapore • Digital economy Singapore is Most transactions Singapore launched • Digital government continuously between citizens and five strategic national • Digital society upgrading its the government can be projects (National Digital information technology done online, and the Identity, E-payments, infrastructure, data number of integrated Moments of Life, Smart collection & analytics, apps that reduce the Nation Sensor Platform, telecommunications, time needed to fulfill & Smart Urban Mobility), & mobility solutions inter-agency requests most of which are digital to power holistic has been growing, but platforms upon which transformation. One such efforts have been more use cases can be relevant technology is sporadic, or agency led. explored over time. the Internet of Things, A central coordinating and it is expected to entity can accelerate improve the urban the process, which was infrastructure. why the Smart Nation and Digital Government Group was formed in May 2017. Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 54 COUNTRY PIL L ARS I N FR AST R U C T U R E P L AT FO R M S EXAMPLES A M E R I CA Brazil Since 2009, when it was • More than 30 • The Rio Operations GeoPortal is a chosen to host the Olympic agencies and 500 Center Integration smart map. The Rio Games, Rio has experienced professionals working Platform is a core Operations Center one of the greatest 24 hours a day/7 days service-oriented monitors and adds urban transformations a week technology platform transport, traffic, in its history, with more • Video wall with 100 based on open weather, and rainfall than 200 structural 47-inch full high- standards and rules information; location works and initiatives definition LED screens that allow multiple of schools and simultaneously executed in • More than 1,000 video data sources to be hospitals; social media the areas of infrastructure, surveillance cameras interconnected and applications; and other mobility, accessibility, provides services for information that could • More than 15,000 the environment, social consumption by other affect citizens’ routines sensors monitored integration, and connectivity applications. to this map. • Geoportal system • Data from various with more than 250 sources are received thematic layers through various • Adoption of new protocols (FTP, SOAP, system, apps, and REST) in different social networks formats (XML, JSON, KML, GeoJSON) and monitored for integrity and availability. United In December 2015, the Over the past year, Intel and the City The main initiative States Ministry of Transport the U.S. Department of San Jose, CA, in San Jose is to use launched the Smart City of Transportation are collaborating air quality and other Challenge, asking mid- has leveraged nearly on a public-private climate sensors to sized cities across America $350 million in public partnership project monitor the quality of to develop ideas for an and private funds for to implement Intel’s the atmosphere. The integrated, first-of-its-kind smart city and advance IoT Smart City San Jose smart city smart transport system that transport technologies. Demonstration Platform program includes a would use data, applications, Building on Beyond to further the city’s range of components and technology to help Traffic 2045, the Smart Green Vision initiative. including public people and goods move City Challenge, provided The project (Smart safety, inclusiveness, more quickly, cheaply, and a spark for cities looking Cities USA) will help San sustainability, and efficiently. to revolutionize their Jose drive economic usability. transport systems to growth, foster 25,000 help improve people’s clean technology jobs, lives. create environmental sustainability, and enhance the quality of life of its citizens. By installing a network of air quality, sound, and microclimate sensors, Intel and San Jose are creating a “sustainability lens” for the city. Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 55 COUNTRY PIL L ARS I N FR AST R U C T U R E P L AT FO R M S EXAMPLES EUROPE Finland Finland’s approach to smart The development of The smart mobility In 2015, Turku began cities focused centers with new services resulted platform must provide a collaboration with unique identity, functional in three new artefacts: a common application mobile ticketing firm traffic that feeds the good of a smart mobility for operation and PayiQ. The city’s public the whole city, conserving ecosystem, a smart maintenance of the transport authority– and developing landscape mobility platform, and vehicle fleet. It defines known as Turku Region and recreation, and retaining smart mobility services). the interactions of Traffic–wanted to the city’s social sustainability. various actors within explore the possibilities the smart mobility of mobile ticketing as a ecosystem and provides more sustainable and common interfaces convenient opportunity for interacting in a for customers. It tailored well-defined way with PayiQ’s Microsoft Azure- the platform. The smart hosted white-label mobility platform must application to its needs, be capable of extending creating a new app its functionality an be called Föli. easily integrated with other applications. United 1. implementing a flexible U.K Government U.K Government London focused on Kingdom regulatory framework; introduced several introduced several multimodal transport 2. Supporting industry and public platforms to public platforms to and pricing options local leaders; coordinate city services, coordinate city services, that promote walking, 3. Ensuring Government established a cloud- established a cloud- cycling, and using public decision-making is robust based city data platform based city data platform transport. It has also to increase access to to increase access to invested in intelligent 4. Continuing established city data, and delivered city data, and delivered transport systems programs for specific a range of smart city a range of smart city technology such as technologies demonstrations such demonstrations such cameras, radar, and as intelligent street as intelligent street traffic counters, using lighting, smart energy, lighting, smart energy, data from the internet and smart mobility. and smart mobility. and smartphones to provide a real-time view of traffic patterns and congestion. These are in addition to existing regulatory programs for zero-emission vehicles, self-driving vehicles and maritime autonomy. Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 56 COUNTRY PIL L ARS I N FR AST R U C T U R E P L AT FO R M S EXAMPLES MID D L E E AST A N D A FR I CA United National Smart Mobility Implementation will The newly conceived There are several Arab Strategy outlines several be accomplished Smart Dubai Platform applications for Smart Emirates strategic priorities, including through a combination unites city services, transport, Optimizing developing safer, more of the following smart the IoT, cloud services, energy resources, Smart sustainable, efficient, mobility solutions and big data, and digital parks and beaches, reliable, and seamless travel services: Connected identity across all city Police smartphone apps options for users ecosystem, Autonomy dimensions to build the etc. Electrification, Micro- most comprehensive mobility services, exchange point Mobility as a service for government and Intermodality and and private sector integration services, delivering unprecedented value for the city. Du Telecom Company will develop and implement the platform in an ambitious, unique public-private partnership model that will set new benchmarks for cross- sector partnerships for smart city initiatives globally. Rwanda • Smart governance and Rwanda has installed The Ministry of In 2015, the Irembo planning a comprehensive Infrastructure proposed Digital Platform was • Smart, efficient services broadband network, an online platform with introduced to provide and utilities although end user data on infrastructure, government services. • Localized innovation for connectivity is in most planning, urban and It is a web-based social and economic cases limited to fourth- rural development, platform to enhance development generation connections, transport, water, and the accessibility of which could limit sanitation. Rwanda government services implementation of has an e-government such as applying for solutions that require platform where citizens driving license and birth broadband connectivity. can access more than certificate, 30 different government services in one platform Sources: Apurva Bose Dutta. “Finland: A Case Study in Creating Smart Cities.” STIRworld. STIRworld. com. June 24, 2019. Accessed October 22, 2022. https://www.stirworld.com/ think-opinions-finland-a-case-study-in-creating-smart-cities. Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 57 Aucor. “Environmental Protection in Finland.” thisisFINLAND. August 23, 2020. Accessed October 25, 2022. https://finland.fi/life-society/environmental-protection-in-finland/. Clara Schreiner. “International Case Studies of Smart Cities.” IDB. Accessed October 25, 2022. https://www.ospi. es/export/sites/ospi/documents/documentos/BID_International-Case-Studies-of-Smart-Cities-Rio-de-Janeiro- Brazil.pdf. Department for Transport. “Future of Mobility: Urban Strategy.” GOV.UK. GOV.UK. March 19, 2019. Accessed October 21, 2022. https://www.gov.uk/government/speeches/future-of-mobility-urban-strategy. Department for Transport. “Future of Transport Regulatory Review Summary of Responses.” Accessed October 23, 2022. https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/ file/960026/c120-eng.pdf. “Japan’s Smart Cities - 首相官邸ホームページ.” Accessed October 22, 2022. https://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/singi/ keikyou/pdf/Japan’s_Smart_Cities-1(Main_Report).pdf. Jayna Locke. “Top 12 Smart Cities in the U.S.—Smart Cities Examples 2020.” Digi International. 2020. Accessed October 25, 2022. https://www.digi.com/blog/post/smart-cities-in-the-us-examples. Megi Hamza. “These Are the Top 20 Sustainable Smart Cities in the World.” Sensors & IoT Infrastructure. Disruptive Technologies Research AS. May 4, 2022. Accessed October 21, 2022. https://www.disrup- tive-technologies.com/blog/the-top-20-sustainable-smart-cities-in-the-world. Ministry of Land Infrastructure and Transport. “Smart City Comprehensive Portal - Smart City Korea.” 2019. Accessed October 25, 2022. https://smartcity.go.kr/en/. Ng Chee Khern. “Digital Government, Smart Nation: Pursuing Singapore’s Tech Imperative.” Government Technology Agency, August 30, 2019., Accessed October 21, 2022. https://www.tech.gov.sg/media/ technews/digital-government-smart-nation-pursuing%20singapore-tech-imperative. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. “OECD Work on Cities.” 2020. Accessed October 25, 2022. https://www.oecd.org/cfe/cities/. “Rio De Janeiro’s Centre of Operations: COR.” Centre For Public Impact (CPI). 2016. Accessed October 25, 2022. https://www.centreforpublicimpact.org/case-study/ioe-based-rio-operations-center. “Rio 2016: Construction Site Brazil.” We Build Value. October 26, 2020. Accessed October 25, 2022. https:// www.webuildvalue.com/en/infrastructure/rio-2016-construction-site-brazil.html. Singapore Economic Development Board (EDB). “To Build a Smart Nation, Singapore Must Be Hyperconnected.” Accessed October 24, 2022. https://www.edb.gov.sg/en/business-insights/insights/to-build-a-smart-nation- singapore-must-be-hyperconnected.html. “Smart Mobility.” Ramboll UK Limited. Accessed October 21, 2022. https://uk.ramboll.com/services-and-sectors/ transport/smart-mobility. U.S. Department of Transportation. “Smart City Challenge.” U.S. Department of Transportation. 2017. Accessed October 25, 2022. https://www.transportation.gov/smartcity. Yuta Hirayama and Rushi Rama. “Japan’s Smart City Initiatives to Play a Key Role in Digitisation.” World Economic Forum. Accessed October 20, 2022. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2021/04/ japan-smart-city-initiatives-digitisation-economic-revival-gtgs/. Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 58 European Commission Smart Mobility Strategy In 2020, the European Commission developed the Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy (Figure B.1) to provide a smart, competitive, safe, accessible, affordable transport system, with the intention of decreasing emissions by 90 percent by 2050.41 It highlights that many nations strive to enhance public transport in an environmentally friendly, sustainable manner by reducing carbon emissions. This is an interesting strategy because it was created at the global level rather than the local or national level. FIGURE B.1. Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy GOALS SUSTAINABLE SMART RESILIENT » Boosting the uptake of zero-emis- » Innovation and digitization will shape » Transport has been one of the sion vehicles, vessels, & airplanes; how passengers and freight move sectors hit hardest by the COVID-19 renewable & low-carbon fuels and around in the future if the right con- pandemic, and many businesses in related, for instance by installing ditions are established. The strategy the sector are facing immense oper- 3 million public charging points by prioritizes: ational and financial difficulties.  2030) » - Developing data infrastructure to » Reinforce the single market, for » Creating zero-emission airports and support smart mobility; shared data instance by reinforcing efforts and ports, for instance through new initia- services; and product lines that use investments and helping the sector tives to promote sustainable aviation transport data to make it more effi- build back better through increased and maritime fuels (e.g., sustainable cient, resilient, and sustainable investments, both public and private, aviation fuels, green hydrogen); » - Boosting innovation and use of in the modernization of fleets in greening freight transport  data and artificial intelligence for all modes (e.g., Trans-European » Making interurban and urban smarter mobility, for instance by fully Transport Network by 2030). mobility healthy and sustainable, for supporting deployment of drones » Make mobility fair and just for all, instance by doubling high-speed rail and unmanned aircraft and further for instance by making the new traffic and developing extra cycling actions (e.g., build a common mobil- mobility affordable and accessible infrastructure over the next 10 years ity data space) in all regions and for all passen- » Pricing carbon and providing better » Making connected and automated gers including those with reduced incentives for users, for instance by multimodal mobility a reality, for mobility, and making the sector more pursuing a comprehensive set of instance by making it possible attractive for workers. measures to deliver fair and efficient for passengers to buy tickets for » Increase transport safety and secu- pricing across all transport multimodal journeys and freight to rity across all modes, including by switch seamlessly between transport bringing the death toll close to zero modes by 2050. 41 European Commission. “Sustainable and Smart Mobility Strategy—Putting European Transport on Track for the Future.” Accessed October 16, 2022. https://transport.ec.europa.eu/transport-themes/mobility-strategy_en. Smart Mobility: National and International Examples 59 APPENDIX C Further Reading 1. Challenges for Smart Cities in Latin America (2020) 2. Deloitte Benchmarking of Sao Paolo Mobility (2020) 3. Deloitte City Mobility Index (2020) 4. Deloitte—Future of Mobility (2018) 5. Deloitte Future of Mobility after COVID-19 (2020) 6. Enabling Technologies for Urban Smart Mobility: Recent Trends, Opportunities and Challenges (2021) 7. European Commission JRC: Research and Innovation in Smart Mobility and Services in Europe (2020) 8. Fast Company—We Need to Redesign Cities to Tackle Climate Change (2022) 9. Gender Equity and Public Transit (2021) 10. Interview with Tiffany Chu (Remix) on the Future of Mobility 11. Japan’s Smart Cities: Solving Global Issues such as SDGs, etc. through Japan’s Society 5.0 12. Korean Smart City Brochure–Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (2019) 13. KPMG Smart City Maturity Assessment (2017) 14. List of Innovation Labs in Latin America (2019) 15. McKinsey Center for Future Mobility 16. MIT Technology Review—The Cities Issue (2021) 17. Mobility Data and Solutions for Emerging Markets 18. Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Smart Cities and Inclusive Growth (2020) 19. Seoul Smart City Initiative & Cases (2018) 20. Smart Green Research Group, Architecture & Urban Research Institute 21. Smart Mobility Strategy in Korea on Enhanced Safety and Higher Capacity Toward 2025 (2014) 22. Thales: Smart Mobility and the blockchain (2019) 23. The Korea Transport Institute 24. UK Government Department of Transport: Future of Mobility: Urban Strategy (2019) 25. WEF’s Latin America Smart City Network Initiative (2021) 26. World Bank: Importance of User Centric Design (2019) Further Reading 60 Foresight andScenarioPlanning Mobility for Smart inLatinAmericaandtheCaribbean 61