RESHAPING  CITIES Readying Cities in the Western Balkans for a changing climate i RESHAPING CITIES ii  RESHAPING CITIES Readying Cities in the Western Balkans for a changing climate iii © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or currency of the data included in this work and does not assume responsibility for any errors, omissions, or discrepancies in the information, or liability with respect to the use of or failure to use the information, methods, pro- cesses, or conclusions set forth. 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Design and visualizations for part 1 by Voilà: | chezVoila.com Contents CONTENTS vi Acknowledgments viii Abbreviations x Executive Summary Part 1 Main Report 3 Chapter 1 Where are we now? 4 Taking Stock of Overall Trends 5 What do we know about citiesin Western Balkans? 15 How is climate change affecting WB6 cities? 22 How are cities affecting climate changein WB6 region? 27 Chapter 2 What do we know? 28 Analyzing the underlying drivers 29 The urban form of citieshas implications for emissions 30 Green and blue spaces in cities actas carbon and pollution sinks 31 Lagging service provision generates negative feedback loops, harming the environment along with socioeconomic outcomes 43 Chapter 3 What do we do? 44 Pathways for Promoting Green, Resilient, Inclusive and Competitive Cities 45 GREEN pathways: Shrinking cities arean opportunity to reshape urban space 52 RESILIENT pathways: WB6 cities must prepare for, mitigate, and adapt to acute shocks and chronic stresses 56 INCLUSIVE pathways: Design multidimensional and innovative interventions for urban inclusion 61 COMPETITIVE pathways: Banking on the future of resilient cities 64 To achieve GRID pathways, climate action in WB6 cities will require multilevel involvement Part 2 Compendium of City Cases 69 Chapter 4 City scans 71 CITY SCAN 1 Tirana 83 CITY SCAN 2 Sarajevo 91 CITY SCAN 3 Novi Sad 102 CITY SCAN 4 Niš 109 CITY SCAN 5 Pristina Annexes Landslide Hazard Situational Assessment Sarajevo Canton, 119 Annex #1 Bosnia and Herzegovina v RESHAPING CITIES Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led by Megha Mukim (Senior Urban Economist) and Axel E. N. Baeumler (Senior Urban Specialist) and comprising Nerali Patel (Consultant), Serene Vaid (Consultant), Solene Dengler (Consultant), Ross Eisenberg (Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Joni Baboci (Consultant), Mustafa Copelj (Consultant), Masatsugu Takamatsu (Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Hiromi Akiyama (Consultant) and Adis Skeja (Consultant). The team is grateful for administrative support from Marco Gallardo, Lisa Fonick Haworth and Nejme Kotere. The editing of the report was handled by Mary Fisk, and the design is credited to Voilà. The team is grateful to Filip Kochan (Senior External Affairs Officer) for his inputs on all aspects of communications. This report has been prepared under the guidance and supervision of Xiaoqing Yu (Country Director, Western Balkans), Sameh Wahba (Regional Director, Sustainable Development, Europe and Central Asia), Christoph Pusch (Practice Manager, Urban, Disaster Risk Management, Resilience and Land, Europe and Central Asia), Christopher Gilbert Sheldon (Country Manager, Bosnia- Herzegovina and Montenegro), Emanuel Salinas Munoz (Country Manager, Albania), Massimiliano Paolucci (Country Manager, North Macedonia and Kosovo), and Nicola Pontara (Country Manager, Serbia). vi Contents Several peer reviewers provided excellent advice. Marc S. Forni (Lead Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Craig Meisner (Senior Economist) and Annie Gapihan (Urban Specialist) offered insightful comments during the concept note stage. Joanna Mclean Masic (Lead Urban Specialist), Craig Meisner (Senior Economist) and Aanchal Anand (Senior Urban Economist) provided valuable comments on the final draft. The team is very grateful for the support of Erion Veliaj (Mayor of Tirana) and Anuela Ristani (Deputy Mayor of Tirana) for hosting the Western Balkans Climate Ready City Workshop in March 2022, and to the Bosnia-Herzegovina State Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Relations for hosting the Climate Resilient City Workshop in Sarajevo in March 2023. This report was supported by the Global Facility of Disaster Risk and Reconstruction (GFDRR), City Resilience Program (CRP) and the Japan-Bank Program for Mainstreaming DRM in Developing Countries, which is financed by the Government of Japan and receives technical support from the World Bank GFDRR Tokyo Disaster Risk Management Hub. vii RESHAPING CITIES Abbreviations AAL average annual loss ALMP active labor market policies AOD aerosol optical depth AQG Air Quality Guidelines BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina CAT-DDOs Catastrophe-Deferred Drawdown Options CO2 carbon dioxide DPL development policy loan ECA Europe and Central Asia EP&R Emergency Preparedness and Response ETS Emissions Trading System GHG greenhouse gas emissions GHS Global Human Settlement (Layer) GHS-POP Global Human Settlement-Population (Grid) GNI gross national income HWMId Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LIID Local Infrastructure and Institutional Development (Serbia) LSGs local self-governments (Serbia) viii Abbreviations NBS nature-based solutions NOAA National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration OSM Open Street Map PM2.5 particulate matter less than or equal to 2.5 micrometers PPP public-private partnerships PV photovoltaic RCC Regional Cooperation Council SREEPBP Seismic Resilience and Energy Efficiency in Public Buildings Project (Türkiye) SSGD Social Sustainability Global Database TPOPOMI Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument UHI urban heat island UNEP United Nations Environmental Programme URM unreinforced masonry USGS United States Geological Survey VIIRS Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite WB6 Western Balkan countries (Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia) WBGT Wet Bulb Globe Temperature WHO World Health Organization ix RESHAPING CITIES Executive Summary Cities in the Western Balkans are no strangers to great upheavals. They have charted their course through wars, political transformations, and societal shifts, and their ability to endure has emerged as a defining characteristic. Now, as the threat of climate change casts its shadow over the region, the formidable resilience of these cities faces a renewed trial in the face of urgent challenges. This report has three objectives. The first is to describe how cities and climate change are changing, and to identify relationships of interest between these two trends. The second is to analyze how a changing climate is affecting urban- ization and how cities themselves contribute to climate change. The third is to prescribe ways for policy makers in national and local governments—working with the private sector and communities—to reshape urban development in ways that would promote greener, more resilient, more inclusive, and more competi- tive outcomes. Part 1 of the report describes where we are now, how a changing climate is linked to cities in the region, and what policy makers should do to respond. Part 2 provides a compendium of case studies of 5 cities in the region that provides nuanced data and analysis targeted at country- and city-level policy makers. The majority of the 43 cities in the Western Balkans are small; only eight have a population over 200,000. Most population growth in the Western Balkans is occurring in larger cities. Conversely, smaller cities in the region have seen a decline in population over the same period. Thus, demographic shifts are reshap- ing the landscape. This trend has been further exacerbated by a decrease in the working-age population due to changes in demographics and increased emigra- tion. These demographic trends of last decades are reshaping the region’s growth and territorial development prospects. Most cities in the region are characterized by low population density and isolated housing units, raising important ques- tions about resource allocation, potential benefits of urban concentration, and the overall sustainability of their growth. Complicating matters further are the region’s complex spatial planning systems, inadequate waste management, and insufficient public infrastructure, which are magnifying the risks posed by natural disasters, particularly for vulnerable populations. x Abbreviations The Western Balkans, comprised of Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia, is one of Europe’s most vulnerable regions to climate change. It is experiencing more frequent and severe storms, floods, landslides, wildfires, droughts, and heat waves, putting the lives and livelihoods of millions of people at risk. These extreme events are expected to become even more frequent and intense in the coming decades. Urban areas in the Western Balkans, where more than half of the region’s population resides, are particularly affected by these challenges. In 2014, Sarajevo, the capital city of Bosnia and Herzegovina, suffered the worst flood in 150 years, affecting almost two-thirds of the country’s municipalities and causing damage estimated at 15 percent of the national income. More than 50 people lost their lives in the cities of neighboring Serbia. Urban development, itself, is also affecting climate, locally and globally, with respect to carbon emissions, particu- late matter levels, and methane emissions. So, what can be done? As climate, environmental, and socioeconomic changes reshape cities, ambitious and effective planning and governance approaches cannot rely anymore on ‘one-size-fits-all’ thinking. In the Western Balkans, the challenge of achieving sustained economic growth while addressing environmen- tal and climate change issues is a multifaceted one. To tackle this complex task, a comprehensive approach is essential, one that spans various sectors and strat- egies. Private sector involvement and capital mobilization play critical roles in reshaping Western Balkans cities, advancing the goals of green, resilient, inclusive, and competitive urban development in the region. GREEN actions to reshape cities for more sustainable urban development would include revising zoning and land-use regulations to limit urban sprawl. Encouraging mixed-use, high-density development; and promoting green growth will entail multi-scalar planning systems and integrating spatial planning to achieve resource-efficient urban functions. Shrinking cities present a special opportunity to embrace sustainable practices in response to urban decline and to enhance overall quality of life. Instead of pursuing unattainable growth plans, xi RESHAPING CITIES these cities can prioritize environmental protection, social equity, and sustain- ability. More compact cities use less energy than larger ones, have lower levels of pollution, and can even be associated with higher levels of growth. Urban planners have a new opportunity to shape a better physical environment in concert with the present economic and social needs of many shrinking cities. The importance of RESILIENCE cannot be overstated for Western Balkan cities, as it is crucial for minimizing risks and adapting to various challenges. Cities must focus on managing critical infrastructure, providing essential services, regulating building design, and ensuring early warnings to shape their develop- ment. Nature-based solutions, such as green and blue strategies, can help mitigate climate risks and improve the well-being of vulnerable communities. Integrating water, waste, and risk management, as well as emergency preparedness and response initiatives, is essential for building resilience against multiple hazards. Furthermore, assessing climate risk, managing public assets, and enhancing local capacity are non-capital interventions that are vital for reducing vulnerability. INCLUSIVE pathways are key to addressing inequality and promoting social equity in the Western Balkans. Initiatives involving community engagement, partnership building, and citizen empowerment can foster social cohesion and promote local participation in addressing climate change. Investing in public service delivery, social protection, and gender inclusion is crucial for building social resilience. Addressing gender imbalances in the labor market and sup- porting the integration of excluded groups into formal employment are essential actions. Furthermore, combining spatial approaches with social interventions can create multisector solutions to counter inequality and shape change. Lastly, it is important to recognize the role of cities as drivers of COMPETITIVENESS in the Western Balkans. Government activity alone is not sufficient to reshape the urban economy: the private-sector—which create jobs, make investments, and seek new markets for their products—are the true drivers of every region’s economic activity. To boost growth, city administrations should work together with the private sector to support industries that can compete in regional and international markets, promote innovation, and develop invest- ment proposals that are attractive to bank financing. It is also crucial to broaden the funding sources of cities, including the use of green bonds and carbon-pricing tools, to promote sustainable urban development. The stakes are high. The decisions made today, in the face of a changing climate and evolving urban landscapes, shape not only the trajectory of cities in the Western Balkans but also the development of their national economies. Targeted policies and proactive measures can help the cities in the Western Balkans address these challenges and promote sustainable urban development in the region. The proposed four pathways encompass a broad spectrum of strategies, policies, and actions that, when combined, can help cities in the region to reshape their way to a more prosperous and environmentally responsible future. xii Abbreviations Table ES 1 Pathways to make cities more climate-ready Pathways Policies and Investments GREEN pathways Action #1 • Revise zoning and land-use regulations Revisit the planning system • Enable high-density, mixed-use deve- to unlock green development lopment along transit corridors through incentives and proactive planning • Invest in sustainable mobility, including public transit, pedestrian routes, and cycling paths Action #2 • Encourage retrofits and brownfield Promote adaptive reuse, regeneration through financial incentives energy-efficient building (for example, taxes, loans, and grants) retrofits, and regeneration • Encourage retrofits and brownfield rege- of brownfields neration through non-financial incentives, such as the provision of affordable housing Action #3 • Protect critical infrastructure, and require Integrate waste management adaptation plans for waste facilities for resilience against • Decentralize solid waste multiple hazards management systems, and include informal waste pickers in the system RESILIENT pathways Action #1 • Connect and provide better Invest in nature-based access to green and blue areas solutions (NBS) to reduce • Integrate NBS into water and flood climate risk management infrastructure • Decentralize control over tree management programs • Integrate firebreaks around critical assets, such as landfills or primary access roads, and increase vegetation in the urban center for cooling Action #2 • Establish and continually update disaster Plan for emergency prepared- risk management and preparedness plans ness and response initiatives • Educate civil society and private stakeholders that educate residents on climate risks and help cities • Invest in early warning systems, and update respond more quickly and existing ones based on reliable, accurate data effectively to climate events xiii RESHAPING CITIES Pathways Policies and Investments INCLUSIVE pathways Action #1 • Ensure broad and inclusive public Harness the power consultation processes, and invest in of community and awareness and information campaigns partnerships • Introduce inclusionary instruments, such as community land trusts, inclusio- nary zoning, and energy cooperatives Action #2 • Invest in and enhance inclusive Invest in public service and reliable health, housing, delivery, and strengthen education, water, and sanitation social protections to build • Develop energy support programs at the local social resilience level in addition to national level programs Action #3 • Work with firms and businesses to design Strengthen the role of women systems for child care, flexible work, and and excluded groups in society professional development for female workers by supporting their integra- • Improve active labor market tion into the labor market policies to connect excluded groups to formal employment Action #4 • Integrate affordable housing Combine spatial approaches investment with public transport with social interventions for multisector solutions COMPETITIVE pathways Action #1 • Create platforms for knowledge exchange Coordinate closely with and mentorship for small and medium firms private actors for green • Streamline permitting for energy infrastruc- economies, jobs, ture, standardize project documentation, and innovation establish safeguarding policies, and stan- dardize power purchasing agreements Action #2 • Create enabling conditions for cities to Increase the acquire funds via municipal bonds and scope of city finance pursue public-private partnerships • Generate funds through own-source revenue, and use green bonds to finance low-carbon projects • Deploy carbon pricing instruments, inclu- ding emissions trading system, fossil fuel tax, and removal of fossil fuel subsidies Action #3 • Incentivize and enable firms Develop bankable to invest in their own adaptations investment proposals • Prioritize quality design, and commu- nicate intrinsic benefits to investors xiv Part 1 Abbreviations Main Report 2 Chapter 1 Where are we now? Where are we now? Taking Stock of Overall Trends Cities and climate change are inextricably linked in the Western Balkans In the Western Balkan six countries (WB6), climate change poses an imminent threat, marked by escalating extreme weather events. The region has witnessed a rise in extreme heat events since the 2000s, accompanied by a decline in extreme cold events. Moreover, both extreme dry and wet events have increased since the 2000s, reversing the decline observed between the 1970s and 1990s. Cities of small and medium sizes are particularly vulnerable to climate hazards, surpass- ing the susceptibility of their counterparts in the broader Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region. This vulnerability is compounded by the inverse correlation between population size and greenness, underscoring the strain on green spaces exacer- bated by rapid urbanization. These trends emphasize the urgent need for targeted policies and collaborative efforts to bolster resilience in the face of escalating climate risks across the WB6 countries. The central aim of this chapter is to demonstrate how climate change affects cities, and in turn, how urban development affects climate, in the context of the WB6 region, encompassing Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), Kosovo, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia. The chapter explores different typol- ogies of cities in the region, followed by an analysis of extreme weather events in selected cities, drawing insights from new empirical data and comprehensive lit- erature reviews. The impacts of projected climate change-related events and those of urban development on climate are explored to inform the policy recommenda- tions in subsequent chapters. 4 RESHAPING CITIES What do we know about cities in Western Balkans? WB6 countries have undergone significant political and social transforma- tion since the early 1990s, yet persistent poverty and regional disparities persist, exacerbated by diverse urban growth patterns and demographic challenges, hindering economic productivity. Since then, poverty has remained an issue in the region, alongside substantial regional disparities.1 In the past few decades, the cities in the region have shown considerable heterogeneity in urban growth patterns. Most WB6 small cities have observed continuous low-density development2 that makes it difficult to extract benefits that can be derived from agglomeration and spatial concentration. The average city size in WB6 is lower than the rest of ECA3 and has a lower population density (approximately 940 inhabitants per square kilometer). The region also faces demographic challenges in the form of substantial outmigration and declining youth population. All of these factors combined have serious negative impact on overall productivity and economic growth in the region. 1 OECD. 2021. “Multi-Dimensional Analysis of Development in the Western Balkans.” In Multi-dimensional Review of the Western Balkans: Assessing Opportunities and Constraints. Paris: OECD. https://doi.org/10.1787/cfa8ee8f-en. 2 World Bank Group. 2019. Western Balkans and Croatia Urbanization and Territorial Review. World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/32308. 3 The ECA region comprises 58 countries (including 6 Western Balkan countries). Based on geograph- ical and political factors, the region is commonly divided into Eastern, Central, Western Europe, Southern, and Southeastern Europe, as well as Central Asia. WB6 countries are situated in South and Southeast Europe. 5 Where are we now? Box 1.1 Sample cities and data The insights in this chapter are based on the subsample of the global dataset of consistently defined cities for the Western Balkans region.4 The dataset is an aggregation of data/information collated from different resources includ- ing the European Commission’s Urban Centre Database (2019), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) night-time lights, weather data generated using Terra Climate database, and information on emissions from European Environment Agency and Google Earth Engine Data Catalog. The findings in the report are synthesized for 43 cities (indi- cated in figure 1.1) in the Western Balkans for which data up to 2021 were available in the global dataset. This analysis is further complemented by secondary research on other cities in the region. Figure B1.1 Sample of cities under consideration in Western Balkan region Urban clusters and capital cities in the Western Balkans Belgrade Bosnia and Herzegovina Sarajevo Serbia Montenegro Pristina Podgorica Kosovo Skopje Tirana North Macedonia Albania 4 A city here refers to an urban cluster that is defined as adjacent grid cells of 1 square kilometer (km2) each, having a density of no less than 300 inhabitants per km2 and a total population of at least 5,000, meeting the criteria for low-density areas. This definition is prescribed by European Commission’s Degree of Urbanization methodology and endorsed by the United Nations [United Nations. 2019. World Urbanization Prospects: The 2018 Revision. New York: Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, United Nations. Dijkstra, L., A. Florczyk, S. Freire, T. Kemper, M. Melchiorri, M. Pesaresi, and M. Schiavina. 2021. “Applying the Degree of Urbanisation to the Globe: A New Harmonised Definition Reveals a Different Picture of Global Urbanisation.” Journal of Urban Economics 125: 103312. Another definition within this methodology is of urban centers—which refer to continuous grid cells of 1 km2, with a minimum density of 1,500 inhabitants per km2 and a total population exceeding 50,000, cate- gorizing them as high-density areas. For a comparative analysis with cities of similar size in the ECA region and across the world, this chapter focuses on a subset of urban clusters within WB6 with a population exceeding 50,000 in 2020. 6 RESHAPING CITIES Box 1.2 Definitions How is a city defined ximct w - xicm w Anomalyicmt w = σicm w A city here refers to an urban cluster that is defined as adjacent grid cells of 1 square kilometer (km2) each, having a density of no less than ximct w - 300 xicm w inhabi- ximct - xicm w w Anomaly w = Anomaly w = tants per km and a total population of at least 5,000, 2 meeting σicm icmt w the criteria forσicm w icmt ximct w low-density areas. This ximct - xicm w definition w xprescribed - xicm is w w by European Commission’s = Anomaly = imct Degree Anomaly w w of Urbanization icmt methodology σicmw icmt σicm endorsed w by the United Nations. x w x w i refers Another definition within this ximct w -x methodology w is of an urban center, which imct imct Anomaly =of 1 km w icm to continuous grid cells 2 , with a minimum density of 1,500 inhabi- icmt ximct σicm w c ximct w i w tants per km2 and a total population exceeding 50,000, categorizing them ximct w - xicm w i as high-density Anomalyicmt = w areas. For a comparative analysis with cities of similar size σ w ximct w - xicm w in the ECA region i ximct w icmand across i the world, this chapter focusescon aAnomaly m of subset w = c urban clusters within WB6 with a population exceeding 50,000 in 2020. x w - x wσicm icmt w Anomalyicmt = w imct icm x w c anomaly c m t σicm w Weather imct i m ximct w A weather anomaly in the context of this chapter refers to city’s standard Anomaly devi- w i m its c own long-run m t x w icmt ations from average for that t same month. imct here is the value of the weather variable (temperature/precipitation) in city i in country c in month m of year t , a weather anomaly. Anomalyicmt w Anomaly w t , is defined i as wfollows: icmt c m Anomaly w Anomaly w x w - x w t icmt Anomalyicmt icmt w = imct icm wc xicm w σicm w w m Anomalyicmt w twhere w refers to either w temperature or precipitation, and x m w σicmw xicm w icm and refers to the city-specific long-run x w imct average and standard deviation for month m, t Anomalyicmt w respectively. xicm w w xicm w tσicmw σicmw Anomalyicmt w i This metric encompasses deviations in temperature and precipitation, Anomalyicmt w w σicmw xicm w σicm w whether they are unusually c high (warmer or wetter than the norm) or unusu- w ally low (colder or drier than the norm) when compared to a city’s long- x w term icm climate σpatterns, w icm including both average conditions and w variability. m For temperature, for example, the measure is equal to +1 if a city’s xicm w tempera- σ ture w icm in a particular month is 1 standard deviation above its own xicmw long-run average. When the measure t takes on an absolute value of 2 or more, σicmw a weather anomaly is “extreme.” It is important to note that anomalies do not automat- ically equate to extreme Anomaly weather w events like heatwaves, cold σwaves, w icm floods, icmt or droughts. This is because the impact of an anomaly of a certain magnitude (for example, -2) varies from city to city, based on the inherent climates.5 w xicm w σicm w 5 Based on Park and Roberts (2022), a background paper prepared for this report. a. https://forecast.weather.gov/glossary.php?word=ANOMALY. b. Monthly mean temperature 2015, Climatology Lab, TerraClimate. 7 Where are we now? Adopting the definition from the World Bank’s flagship report on climate and cities, Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing World (Mukim and Roberts 2023), cities can be categorized based on population size and level of development. The extent current urban conditions and challenges faced by a “typical” city may differ widely across these typologies. In terms of income classification, most countries in the ECA region, including WB6 countries under consideration here, fall in the upper-middle income category.6 The sample of 43 cities in the WB6 region can be classified into two population categories—above and below 200,000 inhabitants. Some major cities have populations of more than 200,0007, namely, Belgrade, Niš, and Novi Sad (Serbia), Tirana (Albania), Skopje and Tetovo (North Macedonia), Sarajevo (BiH), and Pristina (Kosovo).8 A break- down of sample cities is shown in figure 1.1. Most WB6 cities that are shrinking tend to be small The urban population in the WB6 region grew slowly, with most growth occurring in larger cities. The share of urban population in the region has grown by less than 1 percent annually to a total of around 51 percent in 2017, which is almost 20 percentage points lower than the regional average of ECA. The cities in WB6 are mostly small and sparsely populated with average populations of only 30,000. Compared to other regions, WB6 cities are more spread out. This is espe- cially true for larger cities in WB6 cities with around 1,600 inhabitants per square kilometer, much lower than the rest of ECA region.9 Population growth, except for selected cities in Albania and Kosovo, has been relatively low and mostly depen- dent on intracountry and international immigration (Globevnik et al. 2018). The average population density of the region’s sample cities declined from 4,576 in 1990 to 4,080 in 2000 and further down to 3,875 in 2015. Although most cities with populations of more than 200,000 expanded in size between 1990 and 2015, cities with populations of less than 200,000 saw a decline over the same period. Importantly, this trend has been accompanied by a decline in the working-age population, owing to changes in demography and emigration. 6 Economies are divided among income groups according to 2020 gross national income (GNI) per capita, calculated using the World Bank Atlas method. The groups are as follows: low-income = $1,045 or less; lower-middle-income = $1,046 to $4,095; upper-middle-income = $4,096 to $12,695; and high-income = $12,696 or more. 7 According to the global definition, cities can be classified by population as small cities (population 50,000–200,000), metropolitan areas and medium cities (population of 200,000–1.5 million), and large metropolitan areas (population of at least 1.5 million), respectively. 8 The remaining 35 sample cities are (1) Albania: Durrës, Elbasan, Fier, Korçë, Shkodër, and Vlorë; (2) Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH): Banja Luka, Mostar, Tuzla, and Zenica; (3) Kosovo: Ferizaj (Uroševac), Gjakovë (Đakovica), Gjilan (Gnjilane), Mitrovica, Pejë (Peć), Pristina, and Prizren; (4) Montenegro: Podgorica; (5) North Macedonia: Bitola, Drachevo, Gostivar, 9 Kumanovo, Prilep, and Tetovo; (6) Serbia: Čačak, Kragujevac, Kraljevo, Kruševac, Leskovac, Niš, Novi Pazar, Pančevo, Subotica, Valjevo, Zrenjanin. 8 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 1.1 Sample of cities in Western Balkans Sample of WB6 cities under consideration Cities with population of <200,000 >200,000 Serbia 14 3 Albania 6 1 Kosovo 5 1 Bosnia and Herzegovina 5 1 North Macedonia 3 2 Montenegro 2 0 Total 35 8 cities with a cities with a population of population of <200,000 >200,000 It is worrying to note that in many parts of the region, rapidly shrinking populations coincide with expansion of the urban built-up form. Figure 1.2 demonstrates the relationship between annual rate of change in built-up area and population. From 2000–20, most sample cities in BiH, Kosovo, and Serbia had a negative annual growth rate of population and average of 1.1 percent, 2.1 percent, and 1.6 percent increase in build-up area, respectively. 9 Where are we now? Figure 1.2 Rate of change of population and built-up, 2000–20 In the Western Balkans, several rapidly shrinking populations coincide with expansion of the urban built-up form Declining Annual rate of Compactness change in built-up 3.5 (2000-20) Increasing built-up rate Higher built-up rate and population decline than population growth rate 3 Tirana 2.5 Banja Luka Banja Luka is experiencing a decline in compactness due to 2 Brčko population decline and a high built-up rate 1.5 1 Rising Population 0.5 Compactness 150,000 Lower built-up rate than 50,000 population growth rate 0 -5 0 5 Annual rate of change in population (2000-20) Source: GHS-POP R2023A GHS population grid 1975–2030. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). http://data.europa.eu/89h/2ff68a52-5b5b-4a22-8f40-c41da8332cfe. Note: Marker size denotes population size of cities in 2020. Among all of the capital cities in the region, Belgrade (Serbia) and Skopje (North Macedonia) exhibited modest annual population growth in the past two decades; whereas Sarajevo (Bosnia and Herzegovina) experienced a negative annual growth rate in the same period, with almost 2.2% decline in annual growth rate between 2010 and 2020. Tirana (Albania) has been the fastest growing city in the region with 3.2 percent growth from 2000-10 that increased marginally to 3.4 percent from 2010–20. 10 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 1.3 Population in capital cities Most capital cities in the region have experience modest population growth High growth Modest growth Decline Tirana Podgorica Belgrade Pristina Skopje Sarajevo 37% 39% 14% 12% 12% 8% Population 7% 6% 3% 4% rate of change 2000-10 2010-20 00-10 10-20 00-10 10-20 00-10 10-20 00-10 10-20 00-10 10-20 -9% -20% Capital cities in the region show high population growth compared to their secondary counterparts—yet they continue to suffer from low productivity growth and inadequate job creation. Capital cities have grown faster—in terms of population—than non-capital cities (figure 1.4). Their growth rates seem to align broadly with other capitals in ECA. However, the annual population growth rate of non-capital cities in WB6 countries was much lower than their regional comparators. Capital cities have been underperforming with respect to produc- tivity growth and job creation despite their better performance, also in terms of resources and fiscal buoyancy.10 10 Bartlett. W., Kmezić. S., and Đulić. K. 2018. The Political Economy of Decentralisation and Local Government Finance in the Western Balkans: An Overview. http://dx.doi. org/10.1007/978-3-319-96092-0_1. 11 Where are we now? Figure 1.4 Annual population growth rate of capital and other cities, 2000–15 Capital cities’ population grows at a higher rate than other cities, a phenomenon even more so in the Western Balkans region Annual population growth rate 2000 - 2015 0.8% Western Balkans 0.1% Europe and Central Asia 0.8% (Excl. Western Balkans) 0.4% 2.1% Rest of World 1.2% Source: Based on data for subset of 39 Western Balkans cities; 1,292 cities in ECA; and 8,972 cities in the rest of world from the European Commission’s Global Human Settlement (GHS) Urban Centre Database 2019. 12 RESHAPING CITIES Capital cities in the WB6 region make up a major proportion of the total urban population, and that proportion has increased steadily in recent decades. The population of Skopje contributed the highest proportion of all urban population in North Macedonia at 49 percent in 2020, an increase from 41 percent in 2005 (figure 1.5). It is followed by Podgorica (48 percent) in Montenegro, Belgrade (36 percent) in Serbia, Tirana (28 percent) in Albania, Sarajevo (21 percent) in BiH, and Pristina (12 percent) in Kosovo in 2020. Figure 1.5 Proportion of capital population in total urban population Urban population in Western Balkans concentrates in capital cities and is slightly growing Skopje Podgorica Belgrade Tirana Sarajevo Pristina North Montenegro Serbia Albania Bosnia and Kosovo Macedonia Herzegovina 100% % of urban population in other cities 50% 49 49 44 % of urban 41 36 population in capital city 26 27 26 27 28 21 20 21 12 0% 2005 10 20 2020 2005 10 20 2005 10 20 2005 10 20 2020 Sources: GHS-POP R2023A GHS population grid 1975–2030. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). http://data.europa.eu/89h/2ff68a52-5b5b-4a22-8f40-c41da8332cfe. Population and rates of growth in urban areas and capital cities, UNData. Cities in the region can do more to improve their economic performance Cities that are more economically successful will be better able to mitigate against and adapt to the effect of climate, not least because of more resources to tackle the challenges. To get a relative proximation of economic performance across cities in the region, night-time lights intensity is used as a proxy to assess local economic 13 Where are we now? activity.11 With all else constant, WB6 cities seem to perform better than cities in the rest of the world (fitted grey line) and comparable to cities in Europe and Central Asia (brown line) (figure 1.6). There is scope for improvement in cities in the region, especially for those in Albania and BiH, which are further away from their regional comparators. Figure 1.6 Relationship between night-time lights and population A higher amount of nighttime lights is proxy for higher economic activity, the Western Balkans cities perform… …better than most cities in …comparably to other similar cities the rest of the world in Europe and Central Asia Nighttime 6 Nighttime 6 Lights Lights (Log) (Log) 3 3 0 0 -3 -3 -6 -6 11 12 13 14 11 12 13 14 Population Population (Log) (Log) Sources: Population and nighttime lights reported for the year 2020 for WB6 and the year 2015 for ECA and rest of the world. Adapted from Urbanization and Territorial Review, World Bank 2019 and based on data for subset of 43 Western Balkans cities; 1,274 cities in ECA; and 11,512 cities in the rest of world. GHS-POP R2023A GHS population grid 1975–2030. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). http://data.europa.eu/89h/2ff68a52-5b5b-4a22-8f40-c41da8332cfe. 11 Chen. X. and Nordhaus. W. 2011. Using luminosity data as a proxy for economic statistics. https:// doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1017031108; Donaldson. D. and Storeygard. A. 2016. The View from Above: Applications of Satellite Data in Economics. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 30 (4): 171-98. Henderson. J. V., Storeygard. A. and Weil. D.N. 2012. Measuring Economic Growth from Outer Space. American Economic Review, 102 (2): 994-1028. 14 RESHAPING CITIES How is climate change affecting WB6 cities? The frequency of extreme heat events has increased, while that of extreme cold events has declined The average frequency i.e., the average number of months of a year when a city’s temperature was extremely hot relative12 to its own historical experience in the WB6 cities increased from 0.09 months (or 3 days a year) in the 1990s to 1.32 months (or more than 40 days a year) in 2011–20, a staggering 14-fold increase in only two decades (figure 1.7, panel a). The average intensity of extreme heat events also gradually increased over the same period (figure 1.7, panel b). Figure 1.7 Evolution of the frequency and intensity of extreme heat events for cities in Western Balkans, 1958–69 to 2011–20 The frequency and intensity of extreme heat events for cities on the Western Balkans is on the rise Frequency Intensity Average number Average size of anomalies of months per year (no. of standard deviations) 1.5 1.32 2.5 ~ 40 days 2.35 1.0 2.05 0.63 2.0 0.5 More intense 0.17 0.09 0.15 ~3 days 0.01 0 1.5 1958-69 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011-20 1958-69 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011-20 Sources: Calculations based on Climatology Lab, TerraClimate. Link; European Commission, Global Human Settlement (GHS) Urban Centre Database R2019. https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ghs_stat_ ucdb2015mt_r2019a.php. Note: An extreme hot month is one in which a city’s temperature for that month is at least 2 standard deviations higher than the month’s city-specific historical norm, as calculated over the period from January 1958–March 2012. Frequency is calculated as the number of nonconsecutive extreme hot months per year. Intensity is calculated as the average size of the anomaly variable (as defined in defini- tion in section C) during consecutive extreme hot months. Panel a presents the average frequency, and panel b presents the average intensity across the global sample of urban centers that experienced an extreme hot month from January 1958–December 2020. 12 Extreme heat is defined as the average number of months a year that a city’s temperature was extremely hot relative to its own historical experience. 15 Where are we now? Conversely, as a city’s average temperature increases, the number of unusually cold days that it, again by its own standards, experiences decreases. It is not surprising, then, that the average number of months per year for which a city’s temperature was extremely cold by its own historical standards fell from 0.38 (or 11 days) in the 1980s (after increasing from 0.29 (or 9 days) in 1970s) to 0.05 (2 days) in 2011–20 (figure 1.8, panel a). The intensity of extreme cold anomalies, when they do occur, has also declined for the region (figure 1.8, panel b). Figure 1.8 Evolution of the frequency and intensity of extreme cold events for cities in Western Balkans, 1958–69 to 2011–20 The frequency and intensity of extreme cold events for cities on the Western Balkans is diminishing Frequency Intensity Average number Average size of anomalies of months per year (no. of standard deviations) 1.5 -1.4 -1.7 1.0 More intense -2.06 -2.0 0.38 -2.3 0.5 ~11 days 0.35 -2.56 0.26 0.29 -2.6 0.15 0.05 0 -2.9 1958-69 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011-20 1958-69 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011-20 Sources: Calculations based on Climatology Lab, TerraClimate. Link; European Commission, Global Human Settlement (GHS) Urban Centre Database R2019. https://ghsl.jrc.ec.europa.eu/ghs_stat_ ucdb2015mt_r2019a.php. Note: An extreme cold month is one in which a city’s temperature for that month is at least 2 standard deviations below the month’s city-specific historical norm, as calculated over the period January 1958– March 2012. Frequency is calculated as the number of nonconsecutive extreme cold months per year. Intensity is calculated as the avewrage size of the anomaly variable (as defined in definition in section C) during consecutive extreme cold months. Panel a presents the average frequency, and panel b the average intensity across the global sample of urban centers that experienced an extreme cold month over the period January 1958–December 2020. 16 RESHAPING CITIES Both extreme dry and extreme wet weather events have been increasing since the 2000s In the 1970s, the average number of months per year that WB6 cities experienced extremely low rainfall relative to their own historical experiences was 0.05 (or less than 2 days per year). However, by 2011–20, this average had risen more than fourfold to 0.24 months per year (7 days per year) (figure 1.9, panel a). Extreme wet events declined steadily in average frequency from the 1970s to the 1990s, but their occurrence subsequently rebounded in the last decade (figure 1.9, panel b). Figure 1.9 Evolution of the average annual frequencies of extreme dry and wet events for cities in Western Balkans, 1958–69 and 2011–20 The frequency of extreme dry and extreme wet events for cities on the Western Balkans became more frequent in 2011-2020 Extreme Dry Extreme Wet Frequency Frequency Average number Average number of months per year of months per year 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.0 0.57 ~17 days 0.49 0.44 0.5 0.24 0.5 0.36 0.37 0.34 ~7 days 0.03 0.11 ~1 day 0.05 0.01 0 0 0 1958-69 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011-20 1958-69 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s 2011-20 Sources: Calculations based on Climatology Lab, TerraClimate. https://www.climatologylab.org/terracli- mate.html; European Commission, Global Human Settlement (GHS) Urban Centre Database R2019. Note: An extreme dry (wet) month is when a city’s precipitation for that month is at least 2 standard deviations below (above) the month’s city-specific historical norm, as calculated over the period January 1958–March 2012. Frequency is calculated as the number of non-consecutive extreme dry (wet) months per year. Intensity is calculated as the average size of the anomaly variable (as defined in definition in section C) during consecutive extreme dry (wet) months. The graphs present the average annual fre- quency across the global sample of urban centers that experienced an extreme dry (wet) month during January 1958–December 2020. 17 Where are we now? WB6 cities are far more susceptible to natural hazards than their counterparts in the ECA region Cities of all sizes in the region are projected to be harder hit by natural hazards than their regional counterparts. The WB6 cities are vulnerable to the impacts of several types of physical risks, including floods, earthquakes, land- slides, wildfires, droughts, and blizzards. In the next few decades, the frequency and intensity of such extreme events is expected to rise sharply.13 This observation is further evidenced by a measure of climate change hazard risk that consolidates and projects estimates on six key hazards: floods, heat stress, tropical cyclones, sea-level rise, water stress, and wildfires from 2030–40. The projected exposure of WB6 cities to the composite hazard index is far higher than that of similarly sized cities in ECA (figure 1.10). Figure 1.10 Climate change hazard scores, by city size Western Balkans tend to have a higher climate exposure score than other ECA cities Cities with population less than 200,000 Median Europe and Central Asia (excluding Western Balkans) Western Balkans 0 20 40 60 80 100 Climate Hazard Exposure Score Cities with population more than 200,000 Median Europe and Central Asia (excluding Western Balkans) Western Balkans 0 20 40 60 80 100 Climate Hazard Exposure Score Source: Based on data from Moody’s ESG Solutions, Sub-Sovereign Physical Climate Risk Scores, October 2021. Note: The figure reports the mean projected climate hazard exposure scores for cities that belong to a given type. The sample consists of 22 cities in WB6, 233 cities in ECA, and 691 cities in the rest of the world, all in the upper-middle-income category. The mean scores are estimated by regressing a city’s score on a series of dummy variables for the different types of cities. 13 World Bank. 2022. Beyond the Crises: Western Balkans Regular Economic Report - Fall 2022. This is cor- roborated by the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC 2022), which reports that there is high confidence that “Risk consequences will become severe more rapidly in Southern and Western Central Europe and urban areas.” IPCC Sixth Assessment Report Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. IPCC. 18 RESHAPING CITIES The highest contributor to this elevated risk in the region is from anticipated heat stress, followed by water stress/droughts, floods, and wildfires. Of the 22 cities in the region, 11 for which information is available fall in the high or red flag category14 of overall exposure score. Due to the region’s topography, WB6 cities are relatively safe from sea level rise and hurricanes. Cities in Albania face a higher average hazard score (score 86) than the regional average of 67, and all 5 cities in Albania fall in either the high or red flag category (figure 1.11). Figure 1.11 Country-wise climate hazard exposure score Western Balkans cities tend to have a higher exposure. Cities in Albania are the most exposed to climate change Median score for ECA (excluding Western Balkans) Median North Macedonia Albania Montenegro Serbia Kosovo Bosnia and Herzegovina 0 20 40 60 80 100 Climate Hazard Exposure Score Source: Based on data from Moody’s ESG Solutions, Sub-Sovereign Physical Climate Risk Scores, October 2021. Note: The figure reports the mean projected climate hazard exposure scores for cities that belong to a given type. The mean scores are estimated by regressing a city’s score on a series of dummy variables for the different types of cities. The data correspond to evidence of impacts associated with actual extreme events in the region’s cities that are increasing in both frequency and inten- sity. According to Regional Cooperation Council (RCC) European Union projec- tions, in the next few decades, WB6 will face an upsurge in climate change-related events, such as temperature and precipitation pattern fluctuations, which may 14 According to Moody’s Climate Solutions classification, there are five categories of cities: (1) red flag = highly exposed to historical and/or projected risks, indicating high potential for negative impacts; (2) high = exposed today and exposure level is increasing; (3) medium = exposed to some historical and/ or projected risks; (4) low = not exposed or not significantly exposed to historical or projected risks; and (5) no risk. Moody’s, “2021 TCFC Report.” 19 Where are we now? lead to rise in instances of floods, droughts, soil erosion, and forest fires.15 In the recent past, all six of the WB6 nations have witnessed general warming trends; certain parts of the region, such as Albania, are now further exposed to recurring droughts as well as floods. BiH and North Macedonia have suffered from major losses due to extreme weather events in recent years. In North Macedonia, the frequency and intensity of wet and dry events have increased and are expected to continue to rise, especially with the estimated sharp decline in precipitation in summer months, along with the record rise in temperatures (UNEP 2012). Montenegro also has been experiencing frequent days/months of extreme heat since late 1990s, although the annual precipitation has remained constant with few anomalies. These effects are exacerbated by the underlying anthropogenic trends in the region. In coastal Albania, urban expansion has been unregulated and has extended to its shorelines, making the region’s population and infrastructure sig- nificantly vulnerable to floods and storms (World Bank 2021).16 Cyclone Tamara and subsequent floods in 2014 in Serbia and BiH demonstrated that the region is not adequately prepared or equipped to administer the increasing vulnerabilities posed by climate-related impacts (ICUN 2020). The calamity was pronounced as “the worst flooding since records began 120 years ago.” In BiH, almost two-thirds of the municipalities (mostly in central and western parts of Serbia) were directly impacted by the floods;17 damages were estimated at 15 percent of the national income of BiH, and more than 50 people were killed in Serbian cities. In 2017–18, severe drought and heat waves that affected several countries in the region, including BiH, Montenegro, and Serbia, resulted in water shortages and reduced hydropower generation, which is a vital domestic energy source in the region. Rapid urban development has led to increases in instances of UHI impacts during summer months and high temperature days in Albania, especially in the Tirana region. 15 OECD. 2021. “Multi-dimensional analysis of development in the Western Balkans”, in Multi- dimensional Review of the Western Balkans: Assessing Opportunities and Constraints, OECD Publishing, Paris. 16 World Bank. 2021. “Climate Risk Profile: Albania. “ World Bank, Washington, DC. https://climate- knowledgeportal.worldbank.org/sites/default/files/2021-06/15812-Albania Country Profile-WEB.pdf. 17 UNISDR. 2014. A compendium of disaster risk reduction practices in cities of the Western Balkans and Turkey: A review of selected cities participating in UNISDR’s ‘Making Cities Resilient: My City is Getting Ready!’ campaign. https://www.unisdr.org/files/39825_compendiumuploadpw.pdf. 20 RESHAPING CITIES Urban residents in the WB6 have also started to feel the brunt of changing climate in the region. According to data collated for Social Sustainability Global Database (SSGD) by Cuesta, Madrigal, and Pecorari (2022) from the Balkan Barometer, 75 percent of the urban population in the region feels exposed to climate change. A larger proportion of urban residents in Albania, North Macedonia, and Serbia feels threatened by a changing climate, compared to urban residents in neighboring Kosovo and Montenegro (figure 1.12). Figure 1.12 Proportion of the urban population that feels climate change is a problem Urban population in the Balkans feels exposed to climate change % of respondents that believe Average that climate change is a problem North Macedonia 87.2% Serbia 84.3% Bosnia and Herzegovina 81.9% Albania 76.5% Montenegro 69.5% Kosovo 50.0% Source: Social Sustainability Global Database (SSGD)18. Note: Indicators include survey results from Balkan Barometer, which is an annual survey of public opinion and business temperaments commissioned by the Regional Cooperation Council in the WB6 regions. 18 Compiled for Cuesta Leiva,Jose Antonio; Madrigal Correa,Alma Lucia; Pecorari,Natalia Gisel. Social Sustainability, Poverty, and Income: An Empirical Exploration (English). Policy Research working paper; no. WPS 10085 Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. 21 Where are we now? How are cities affecting climate change in WB6 region? This section analyses data on carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions, emissions of partic- ulate matter of 2.5 microns or less in diameter (PM2.5), and methane emissions for the WB6 region. It focuses on how these outcomes are related to basic city charac- teristics, including, most notably, a city’s size and development level. Population inversely correlates with greenness, emphasizing the pressure on green spaces due to urbanization Green spaces in cities comprising parks, woodlands, and other semi-natural areas are an essential element of sustainable urban ecosystems. Increasing population density in cities, which puts pressure on these green spaces, can occur because of excessive and unsustainable land use changes. For the WB6 region, regression analysis reveals a negative relationship between how green a city is, on average, and its population size, controlling for both its level of development and aspects of its geography and climate that may be correlated with both greenness and size (figure 1.13). 22 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 1.13 Relationship between average greenness and population size across cities in Western Balkans, 2020 The correlation between green cover and population has become slightly more negative in 2020 more than it was in 2015 Percentage 80 of green cover 60 40 20 2015 2020 0 9 12 15 Population (Log) Sources: GHS-POP R2023A GHS population grid 1975-2030. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC). Data on green cover obtained from Dynamic World 10 m resolution land cover dataset. Note: City’s green cover is computed as the union of tree and grass cover and excludes cropland within an urban cluster. More compact cities are better for both air pollution and greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) There is a strong relationship between a city’s residential and transport sector PM2.5 emissions19 and its population density, controlling for such factors as the city GDP per capita and environmental and geographical factors (figure 1.14). For a given level of development, larger cities tend to have more air pollution. Sprawling urban development tends to have a detrimental impact on the region’s economic and social structure, as well as on the region’s environment. A lower proportion of residents that relies on public transport results in higher air pollu- tion and GHG emissions. A sprawling landscape leads to more human involve- ment in natural processes, potentially elevating the likelihood of floods and other natural hazards.20 19 Average PM2.5 is a type of particulate matter (PM) that is generally 2.5 μm in diameter or smaller. 20 OECD (2018). Rethinking Urban Sprawl: Moving Towards Sustainable Cities. Link. 23 Where are we now? Figure 1.14 Determinants of air pollution (PM2.5) for cities in the region, residential, and transport sectors, 2015 Relationship between city compactness and PM2.5 and CO2 emissions across cities globally, 2015 PM2.5 – estimated e ect of various city characteristics on emissions Residential sector Transportation sector –4 –2 0 2 –4 –2 0 2 City compactness Log, country GDP per cap. Log, built-up area Log, city population Source: World Bank analysis based on data for2785 global cities from the European Commission’s (EC) Global Human Settlement (GHS) Urban Centre Database R2019, which derives its data on PM2.5 emis- sions from the EC’s Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR v5.0). Note: For each sector, the graph presents estimated coefficients, together with the associated 95 confi- dence intervals, from a regression of a city’s log PM2.5 emissions on the log of its population density, the log of the city GDP per capita of the city, and a measure of the city’s compactness (the Polsby-Popper Ratio compactness index). Regressions also include country fixed effects and control for a city’s overall climate (including precipitation, temperature, biome) and elevation, and they are based on cross-sec- tional data for 2015 with robust standard errors. Poorly managed waste is exacerbating pollution and hazards Municipal solid waste and coal combustion waste are influenced by economic activity, consumption, and population growth. Since 2015, municipal waste generation in the Western Balkans has increased from 358 kg/per capita to 388 kg/per capita. The growing size of waste has been associated with the emer- gence of several illegal dumpsites in this region. In addition, the locations of the waste disposal sites have shifted with urbanization. Waste disposal sites (munic- ipal and coal combustion) that were once located on the outskirts of the cities are now increasingly located in urban clusters and in highly dense human settle- ments; 49 percent of the waste disposal sites are now in areas classified as urban clusters, with population density in the 1-kilometer radius around waste disposal sites at 225 people per km2. Kosovo’s challenges with waste management are emblematic of the WB6 region. Kosovo lacks proper waste management for all solid waste types (domestic, industrial, health care, and hazardous). There is lack of municipal waste separation at the source, collection, transport, and disposal stages. It does not recycle any waste; the waste either ends up in landfills or is dumped illegally or 24 RESHAPING CITIES burned, with 2,529 illegal dumpsites in the country.21 In 2020, the annual amount of municipal waste generated per capita was approximately 0.63 kg/inhabitant/ day; 92.8 percent of this waste was disposed of in the sanitary landfills, and the remainder was dumped in illegal dumpsites.22 Over time, these dumpsites have grown. Most dumpsites are surrounded by urban fabric, including industrial and commercial units, mine extraction sites, and construction sites. For instance, the large Kosovo Mitrovica dumpsite in the Shupkovc locality is in a densely popu- lated area (4,304 people/km2 within 1-km radius of the dumpsite), with residen- tial units 300 meters away. The emissions in the 1-km radius of the dumpsites are 18.5 μg/m3 (micrograms per cubic meter of air) and are above the average PM2.5 emissions for Kosovo Mitrovica Municipality, which is 11.13 μg/m3; both are above the 2005 World Health Organization (WHO) PM2.5 Air Quality Guidelines (AQG) level of 10 μg/m3.23 Poor waste management is also contributing to worsening climate hazards, including wildfires. At Sharra solid waste dump, located near Tirana, the open burning of domestic solid waste at the collection sites is widespread during summer.24 Waste burning releases highly toxic chemicals (dioxins and furans) into the air. In addition to pollutants, waste burning instigates secondary fires. With 50 to 80 percent of municipal waste components in municipal waste dumpsites being flammable substances and the main component of landfill gas generated by waste decomposition being methane, waste burning has a high risk of spread- ing out to urban areas, posing risk of structural fires, as well as to wildland areas, presenting the risk of wildfires. Additionally, waste fires can intensify wildfires. This is especially true if the waste storage sites are in high-risk wildfire zones or are surrounded by high wildfire risk areas; 1.94 percent of the area within a 1-km radius of the Sharra waste disposal site is an extremely high wildfire risk area. A wildfire in the surrounding wildfire-front area has a significant chance of interact- ing with the highly flammable materials stored at Sharra waste storage and could result in the intensification of the wildfire.25 Unregulated and poorly managed landfill fires are leading to methane (CH4) emissions, thereby aggravating vulnerabilities in the region. Across WB6 coun- tries, methane concentrations at dumpsites have increased by 16.89 ppb (parts per 21 World Bank. 2013. Kosovo Country Environment Analysis. Cost Assessment of Environmental Degradation, Institutional Review, and Public Environmental Expenditure Review. https://docu- ments1.worldbank.org/curated/en/282361468047686579/pdf/750290ESW0P1310LIC00Kosov- o0CEA0Rprt.pdf. 22 Annual report on the state of the environment for 2020. 2020. Ministry of Environment, Spatial Planning and Infrastructure. Kosovo. https://www.ammk-rks.net/assets/cms/uploads/files/ Publikime-raporte/ANG_Web.pdf. 23 World Bank analysis from CORINE LULC 2018. https://land.copernicus.eu/en/products/corine-land- cover/clc2018; Sentinel-5P Methane. https://sentinels.copernicus.eu/web/sentinel/data-products/-/ asset_publisher/fp37fc19FN8F/content/tropomi-level-2-methane; European Air Quality Maps. 24 UNEP. 2004. Tirana-Sharra Waste Dump Site Feasibility Study and Urgent Rehabilitation Measures Project. https://www.sida.se/en/publications/ sharra-waste-dump-site-albania-feasibility-study-and-urgent-rehabilitation-measures. 25 Ibrahim. M. A. 2020. Risk of spontaneous and anthropogenic fires in waste management chain and hazards of secondary fires. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.resconrec.2020.104852. 25 Where are we now? billion) in 2020, which is higher than the global annual rise of 15.23 ppb in 2020. Detecting and addressing human-caused sources of methane emissions is essen- tial because methane emissions and a warming climate have a mutually reinforc- ing effect. Figure 1.15, panel a, depicts the change in concentration of methane emissions in the region from 2019–23. In the span of these five years, the densest clusters of increases in CH4 emissions are in BiH, Kosovo, and Serbia. In terms of per capita methane emissions specifically for urban areas (figure 1.15, panel b), Kosovo has consistently had the highest numbers, followed by Serbia and BiH. Figure 1.15 Change in methane emissions, 2019-23 Change in methane emissions Change in per capita methane between 2019 and 2023 emissions in urban areas Parts per billion (ppb)/year Parts per billion (ppb) Methane emissions in 2023 in comparison to 2019 0.6 Lower Higher Urban areas Kosovo 0.4 Serbia Bosnia and Herzegovina 0.2 North Albania Macedonia Montenegro 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Sources: Methane emissions measured as column-averaged dry air mixing ratio of methane, as parts per billion from Sentinel-5 Precursor Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI). Urban areas defined using GHS-SMOD R2023A GHS settlement layers, application of the Degree of Urbanisation methodol- ogy (stage I) to GHS-POP R2023A and GHS-BUILT-S R2023A, multitemporal (1975-2030). 26 Chapter 2 What do we know? What do we know? Analyzing the underlying drivers Underlying vulnerabilities in WB6 cities are compounding the effects of climate Chapter 1 looks at risks and exposure. This chapter delves into the underly- ing vulnerabilities of cities in the region. The absence of key infrastructure such as urban wastewater treatment plants, sufficient sewerage systems, insufficient waste management, and lack of environmental awareness, in combination with climate change impacts, do present significant risks to human health, as well as ecosystems that can result in biodiversity loss. Urban climate change-related risks are amplified for those who lack access to adequate means of adaptation. Resilience to extreme weather for urban populations is strongly influenced by the quality of the building stock, the effectiveness of land use planning, and the efficacy of and access to key infrastructure and services, and importantly, early warning systems and public response measures. Cities in the Western Balkans are considered to have medium-to-highly vulnerability to climate change, because of the relatively high percentage of population employed in weather and cli- mate-related sectors, such as agriculture, forestry, and tourism.26 This situation is compounded by already higher unemployment rates. Risks are concentrated in informal settlements—poor access to infrastructure, transport, low incomes, and dangerous locations have compounding effects on urban vulnerability. Access to climate finance is critical; vulnerable cities and municipalities are often poorly positioned to access available funding to cover the growing needs for risk-reduc- ing infrastructure and services. 26 Vuković, Anna, and Mirjam Mandić. (2018). Link. “Study on Climate Change in the Western Balkans Region.” Regional Cooperation Council Secretariat, Sarajevo. 28 RESHAPING CITIES The urban form of cities has implications for emissions The urban form of cities, the level of density, fragmentation, and layout— all of these factors have significant impacts on climate and environmental indicators. Urban sprawl27 impacts GHG emissions and air pollution through increased traffic and travel times, inefficient and unsustainable energy and heating methods, and indirect effects that include urban heat islands. Transportation energy use and population density have an inverse relationship in cities around the world.28 All else being equal, steel and cement industries are responsible for around 12 percent of global carbon emissions. Sprawling, lower density cities with longer commute times, lower production, and higher residential energy use29 tend to have higher carbon intensity30 per capita.31 The interaction between density and public transport corridors, grid-like street networks that allow for shorter trip lengths, and urban design encouraging non-motorized transport are essen- tial drivers of low carbon urban development.32 Embodied carbon in infrastructure also plays a role.33 Furthermore, modeled reductions in GHG emissions in select cities (Chongqing, Jordan, Mexico City, and Pristina) from compact, walkable, tran- sit-oriented growth planning range from 8 to 40 percent.34 27 OECD. (2018). “Rethinking Urban Sprawl. Moving Towards Sustainable Cities.” OECD, Paris. Link.; Bart, I. L.(2010). “Urban Sprawl and Climate Change: A Statistical Exploration of Cause and Effect, with Policy Options for the EU.” Land Use Policy 27 (2): 283–92. Link.; Feng and Gauthier. (2021). “Untangling Urban Sprawl and Climate Change: A Review of the Literature on Physical Planning and Transportation Drivers.” Atmosphere 12 (5): 547. Link. 28 World Bank. (2016). “Addressing Climate Change Challenges in ECA Cities.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Link. TUMI (Transformative Urban Mobility Initiative). (2019). “Transport Energy and Population Density.” Link; Based on data and illustrations from Rode and Floater. (2014). Rode, Philipp, and Graham Floater. (2014). “Accessibility in Cities: Transport and Urban Form.” NCE Cities Paper 03. London School of Economics, page 8. Link that was based on data from Newman and Kenworthy Kenworthy, J., and P. Newman. (2015). The End of Automobile Dependence: How Cities are Moving Beyond Car-Based Planning. Washington DC: Island Press. Link. 29 Ewing, Reid, and Fang Rong. (2008). “The Impact of Urban Form on U.S. Residential Energy Use.” Housing Policy Debate 19 (1). 30 Ramaswami, Anu, and Abel Chavez. (2013). “What metrics best reflect the energy and carbon inten- sity of cities? Insights from theory and modeling of 20 US cities.” Environmental Research Letters 8: 035011. 31 Density may not necessarily reduce energy consumption if it is in the form of high-rise buildings, as in some of the literature high-rise building have been found to use more energy per unit of floor space than medium-rise buildings (Pomponi, Francesca, Ruth Saint, Jau H. Arehart, Niaz Gharavi and Bernadino D’Amico. (2021). “Decoupling Density from Tallness in Analysing the Lifecycle Greenhosue Gas Emissions of Cities.” Urban Sustainability 1 (33). 32 World Bank GAP Fund. (2021). “Primer on Urban Form and GHG Emissions.” Technical Note 3, City Climate Finance Gap Fund. https://www.citygapfund.org/sites/default/files/2021-10/Gap Fund Technical Note 3_Urban Form and GHGs- v2.pdf. 33 Churkina, Galina. (2016). ]“The Role of Urbanization in the Global Carbon Cycle.” Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution 3. 34 World Bank. (2021). “Primer on Urban Form and Greenhouse Gas Emissions.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 29 What do we know? Cities in the Western Balkans typically have an organized historic urban core but tend to grow in an unplanned manner at the urban periphery, which exacerbates air pollution and GHG emissions. For example, Niš, Novi Sad, Pristina, and Sarajevo embody a spatial signature that exhibits road network entropy,35 indicating a combination of planned and unplanned urban develop- ment.36 The spatial distribution and concentration of population density in these cities have created patterns with relatively dense urban cores but with pockets that have limited connections to the urban core—a situation that has hindered the adequate provision of essential services and led to increased commuter traffic. This situation also has implications for air pollution: although pollu- tion levels are higher in the center (10-20 μg/m3 in Pristina, Sarajevo, and Tirana versus 30 μg/m3 in Niš and Novi Sad) due to incoming traffic and concentrated economic activity, air pollution levels in the periphery are above the WHO threshold of 10 (10-20 μg/m3 in Novi Sad, Pristina, Sarajevo, and Tirana versus 20-30 μg/m3 in Niš). Green and blue spaces in cities act as carbon and pollution sinks Green and blue spaces in cities provide many environmental benefits and act as carbon and pollution sinks. Green areas help to improve air quality, reduce noise, and enhance biodiversity.37 By helping to moderate temperatures during heatwaves and supporting cooling for reduced UHI effects, green and blue areas or reflective and green rooftops or facades also reduce the need for air conditioning and thereby help reduce GHG emissions,38 in addition to their moderate carbon sink role.39 Higher ambient urban temperatures result in the higher use of air con- ditioning and increase peak electricity demand by 0.45-12.3 percent for each 1°C 35 Indicator of orientation-order that quantifies how a city’s street network follows the geometric ordering logic of a single grid. 36 Boeing, G. (2019). “Urban Spatial Order: Street Network Orientation, Configuration, and Entropy.” Applied Network Science 4 (67). 37 Grazia Zulian, Grazia, Martijn Thijssen, Susann Günther, and Joachim Maes. (2019). Enhancing Resilience of Urban Ecosystems through Green infrastructure (EnRoute). Luxembourg: Publications Office of the European Union. 38 Romanello, Marina, et al. (2021). “the 2021 Report of the Lancet Countdown on Health and Climate Change: Code Red for a Healthy Future. “The Lancet 398, (10311): p. 1619–62, October 30. Wu, Y., C. Li, K. Shi, L. Shirao, and Z. Chang. (2022). “Exploring the Effect of Urban Sprawl on Carbon Dioxide Emissions: An Urban Sprawl Model Analysis from Remotely Sensed Nighttime Light Data.” Environmental Impact Assessment Review 93: 106731. 39 Cities account for only a small percentage of land use, and green spaces/urban forests contribute to a small amount of carbon sequestration compared to overall high CO2 emissions. 30 RESHAPING CITIES increase in temperature.40 As described in the previous subsection, urban design for walkability is essential; when it is achieved at scale, it can contribute to signifi- cant reductions in GHG emissions and air pollution. Indeed, the city-specific analytics suggest that the concentration of green areas and water bodies in urban neighborhoods overlaps with lower PM2.5 concentrations. All analyzed cities in the Western Balkans generally have green areas concentrated in the outskirts or on one side of the city, often delim- ited by or near bodies of water. In sections with green and blue areas, the PM2.5 concentration is typically lower, although this is more visible in Pristina, Sarajevo, and Tirana, where within-city differences in PM2.5 concentrations are more pronounced. In Tirana, PM2.5 concentrations in the city center are double those in green areas in the periphery. Sarajevo is the city with the highest tree cover (55 percent), followed by Novi Sad (29 percent), Tirana (23 percent), Niš (20 percent), and Pristina (15 percent). Grassland and cropland coverage varies: 36 percent and 37 percent in Novi Sad and Sarajevo, 42 and 45 percent in Pristina and Niš, and 13 percent in Tirana. However, urban sprawl (coupled with by soil sealing) encroaching on green areas and agricultural land, as well as deforesta- tion, are challenges that have worsened in recent decades and have impacted the carbon and pollution footprint of these cities. Lagging service provision generates negative feedback loops, harming the environment along with socioeconomic outcomes Ineffective basic service provision linked to urban sprawl is costly and harms the environment. It is estimated that up to 40 percent of the regional popula- tion may suffer from energy poverty, compared to 10 percent in the European Union.41 Energy poverty in the region arises due to poor building insulation, inef- 40 The additional peak electricity demand is a function of the levels of penetration of air conditioning in the city/country, the specific energy and thermal quality of the building stock, the indoor set point temperatures, and the characteristics of the local electricity network. Data from 13 cities/countries analyzed in Santamouris, M. 2020. “Recent Progress on Urban Overheating and Heat Island Research: Integrated Assessment of the Energy, Environmental, Vulnerability and Health Impact: Synergies with the Global Climate Change.” Energy and Buildings 207: 109482. 41 See Robić, Slavica. (2016). “Energy Poverty in South East Europe: Surviving the Cold”. https://www. door.hr/wp-content/uploads/2016/10/Energy-Poverty-in-South-East-Europe_Surviving-the-Cold. compressed.pdf%5d. 31 What do we know? ficient heating methods, and inability to pay tariffs, despite lower than real costs and power subsidies. Thermal power plants, industry, residential heating, trans- port, agriculture, and uncontrolled waste burning are the main sources of PM10 emissions in the Western Balkans region. Poor provision of basic services, such as waste management, heating, and public transport, can cause increased GHG emis- sions and air pollution42 and impact local economic development.43 There are also higher costs associated with public service delivery reaching sprawled areas; it is estimated that the cost of provision and maintenance of public infrastructure in sprawled areas can be more than three times higher than in compact areas.44 Without planned intervention, service delivery and the devel- opment of urban infrastructure will not keep up with urban sprawl in peripheral areas in Pristina, and it is, in fact, projected to decrease. For example, the per- centage of the population connected to Pristina’s heating network is projected to decrease to -13.9 percent and access to social infrastructure such as green spaces to decrease by -6.25 percent.45 ECA countries already tend to have emission-in- tensive waste sectors, with many countries above the world mean in terms of the share of waste in total GHG emissions.46 However, mixed-use development has been shown to help reduce vehicular emissions under certain conditions.47 This is especially the case in secondary urban centers, depending on the specific mix of land use and whether basic service provision, housing, and public transport can sufficiently meet the needs of residents. In the Western Balkans, access to basic services is hindered, particularly in peripheral areas, which has implications for GHG emissions. All cities have at least one area where people have limited or no access to schools within a 1600– 2400-meter journey, compared to a threshold of 800 meters considered import- ant to allow for a high frequency of cycling and walking. The difficult provision of effective and clean district heating and waste management in sprawled neighbor- hoods also contributes to increased GHG emissions and air pollution. 42 There is strong evidence that population/residential densities are negatively correlated with energy consumption and GHG emissions, but evidence is by country/city rather than a cross-country empir- ical investigation. 43 Feng, Q., and P. Gauthier. (2021). “Untangling Urban Sprawl and Climate Change: A Review of the Literature on Physical Planning and Transportation Drivers.” Atmosphere 12 (5): 547. Rubiera- Morollón, Fernando, and Ruben Garrido-Yserte. (2020). “Recent Literature about Urban Sprawl: A Renewed Relevance of the Phenomenon from the Perspective of Environmental Sustainability.” Sustainability 12 (16): 6551.World Bank. (2021). “Bridging the Gap in Solid Waste Management: Governance Requirements for Results.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 44 OECD (2018), Rethinking Urban Sprawl: Moving Towards Sustainable Cities, OECD Publishing, Paris. https://www.oecd-ilibrary.org/sites/9789264189881-en/index.html?itemId=/content/ publication/9789264189881-en. 45 World Bank (2022). “Green Low Carbon and Climate Resilient Pristina Final Report.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 46 In 2016, with 2008 as a base year; Energy consumption here encompassing heat and electricity delivered during the operational phase of a building; potential energy savings are estimated at 50 percent; World Bank. (2016). “Addressing Climate Change Challenges in ECA Cities.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Link. 47 Ewing, Reid. (2020). “Regional Transportation Goals: Reducing Sprawl through Interconnected Centers.” Project Brief 1217. National Institute for Transportation and Communities. October. Link. 32 RESHAPING CITIES In Sarajevo and Pristina, around 57 percent and 38 percent,48 respectively, of households use firewood or coal for heating, contributing to high PM2.5 concen- trations and spending a high percentage of their household income. Although the expansion of local economic activity outside of the city core—measured by the emission of night-time lights, with a faster and wider expansion in Niš, Novi Sad, and Sarajevo—could have represented a potential for mixed neighborhood devel- opment and decreased commuting, basic service provision does not appear to have kept pace. Public spaces and green and blue areas have implications for heatwave and urban heat island mitigation The lack of green spaces in areas of Western Balkan cities is leading to high UHI effects; without action, this is likely to worsen in the future. Due to urban heat island effects, more urban areas will experience summer surface temperatures that are high (~ 50 °C). Cities in the Western Balkans are expected to heat up even more in the next decade: among 15 comparator cities,49 Niš, Pristina, Sarajevo, and Tirana are among the top 10 in terms of changes in duration and intensity of heatwaves50 and impacts on populations51 from 1990–2040. In terms of coverage of green areas (average 28 percent), these cities are below the 30 percent tree cover threshold; only Novi Sad features the Danube River, a sufficiently large per- manent water body (7 percent of the total landcover) that can be leveraged for nature-based cooling solutions. These factors are likely to affect the local econ- omies of these cities substantially and increasingly in the years to come. UHI effects can cause differences in temperatures up to 12°C between areas in a city. Heat waves cause high detrimental health impacts and fatalities, with vulnera- ble people such as the elderly, infants, and pregnant women among those most affected; in addition, through loss of productivity, heat waves also directly affect the economy. It is estimated that in the European Union and United Kingdom 48 Ahmeti, Petrit & Kistelegdi, István. (2019). Energy consumption by the type of energy carrier used in residential sector in city of Pristina. Pollack Periodica. Softic, Admir, and Ljubo Glamocic. (2012). “National Background Report on Energy for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Sarajevo. https://wbc-rti.info/ object/document/9828/attach/0_National_Background_Report_Energy_BiH_2012.pdf. 49 Cities included in the benchmark are Thessaloniki, Skopje, Durres, Split, Tirana, Sofia, Padgorica, Niš, Novi Sad, Ljubljana, Belgrade, Zagreb, Sarajevo, Banja Luja, and Pristina. 50 HWMId: Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily; The heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId) merges the duration (days) and the intensity (daily maximum temperature) of prolonged extreme tempera- ture events into a single numerical index. High magnitude may have implications for human health, impairing worker productivity, especially in agriculture and construction sectors, which may lead to financial losses. 51 Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) represents the cooling capacity of the human body through perspiration. This indicator calculates the weighted mean of a function of temperature, relative humidity, and pressure. WBGT is often used to determine how heat affects people during strenuous activities, such as military exercises, sports, and outdoor work. When WBGT measures reach 30°C, conditions are unhealthy for many people and deaths rise among those vulnerable to heat. 33 What do we know? alone, heat-related fatalities could increase to 100,000 per year by 2100, compared to 2,750 currently.52 Lack of integrated water, waste, and risk management lowers resilience against multiple hazards High exposure of assets and people to hydro-climatic hazards in Western Balkan cities will continue to cause major ripple effects, particularly if key public infrastructure and services are not developed and managed in a resil- ient manner. As a direct result of urban land expansion, without factoring in the impacts of a changing climate, the extent of urban areas in Eastern Europe53 exposed to floods and droughts will be 10 percent and 11 percent, respectively, by 2030; urban land lying on low elevation coastal zone is projected to be 13 percent. Increasing evidence suggests links between UHI and rainfall intensity in urban areas.54 Although compact urban development is clearly related to a reduction in GHG emissions and air pollution, the link to climate change impacts and disaster risk reduction is less clear, because it has to do with multiple factors related to urban form and infrastructure.55 During flood events, the lack of drainage and quality wastewater management can cause high environmental impacts and health issues that affect the most vulnerable, which is why risk-informed and integrated water and waste management is so important.56 The Western Balkans cities analyzed are increasingly prone to floods, land- slides, and drought risks, and the lack of integrated waste and water man- agement considerably hampers resilience. Assets and people are highly exposed to flood risks in those cities: 26 percent to 52 percent of schools, 24 percent to 82 percent of major roads, 14 percent to 82 percent of hospitals, 11 percent to 80 percent of police stations, 46 percent to 100 percent of fire stations,57 and 24 percent to 67 percent of the densest settlement areas are in a river and rainwa- ter flood risk zone with a minimum depth of 15 cm.58 The built-up area exposed to 52 European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Naumann, G., Russo, S., Formetta, G. (2020). Global warming and human impacts of heat and cold extremes in the EU: JRC PESETA IV project: Task 11, Publications Office. EEA (2021). “Heat and Health Issues”. https://climate-adapt.eea.europa.eu/ observatory/evidence/health-effects/heat-and-health/heat-and-health. 53 Analysis includes Albania, BiH, Montenegro, North Macedonia, and Serbia; Güneralp et al. (2015). “Changing Global Patterns of Urban Exposure to Flood and Drought Hazards. Global Environmental Change 31: 217–25. 54 Richards, Daniel, and Peter Edwards. (2018). “Using Water Management Infrastructure to Address Both Flood Risk and the Urban Heat Island.” International Journal of Water Resources Development 34 (4): 490–98. 55 Bernard, Joel. (2020). “Reviewing the Argument on Floods in Urban Areas.” Theoretical and Empirical Researchers in Urban Management 15 (1): 4–41. 56 Browder, Greg, Ana Nunez Sanchez, Brendan Jongman, et al. (2021). “An EPIC Response: Innovative Governance for Flood and Drought Risk Management.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Link.; Baker, Judy L. (2012). Climate Change, Disaster Risk, and the Urban Poor: Cities Building Resilience for a Changing World. Urban Development. Washington, DC: World Bank. 57 There is no information on exposure of fire stations for Tirana and Pristina. 58 Average and median values across 5 cities for flood exposure are as follows: 40.8 percent and 47 percent for schools; 43.6 percent and 34 percent for major roads; 41.6 percent and 40 percent for 34 RESHAPING CITIES flooding grew at an average annual rate59 of 1.8 percent to 4.4 percent, depending on the cities; precipitation and peaks of rain are projected to increase in the next decades. Cities will also experience more dry days: Niš, Pristina, Sarajevo, and Tirana are among the top 10 cities that are projected to observe an increase in con- secutive dry days from 1990 to 2040. In some cases, like Sarajevo, high exposure to flooding also overlaps with UHI effects, as well as the impacts of drought and deforestation; the latter is likely to exacerbate existing landslide risks. At the same time, Western Balkan cities are facing already considerably challenges to ensure quality provision of water, effective waste management, and sufficient access to health services.60 Insufficient integrated investments, such as in drainage and retention or stabilization of soils with trees, can create ripple effects among disas- ters, environmental impacts, and public health.61 This situation creates consider- able negative spirals among disaster risks, poverty, and vulnerability, particularly for disadvantaged communities scattered in the core urban areas or concentrated in peripheral areas in those cities. When disaster strikes, current building codes and zoning may make things worse Over 40 percent of the total energy in the Western Balkan region is consumed by buildings. Besides impacting the structural features of a building, climate change can influence the conditions under which people live, work, and interact indoors; and building users need to use heating and cooling systems to cope with thermal discomfort brought about by temperature extremes. The future may bring about an increased risk of collapse; degradation of construction materials and even of the structural integrity of the buildings; significant loss of value because of more storms, snow, or subsidence damage; water encroachment; and deteriorating indoor climate and reduced building lifetime. Buildings and constructions account for more than one-fourth of all GHGs through greenfield development; cement production; and the burning of fossil fuels, such as oil, gas, and coal for construc- tion purposes. It is estimated that the potential energy savings from buildings in Albania or BiH62 could be 5,040 or 10,006 TJ, respectively, (around 50 percent of building energy consumption), corresponding to 6.67 percent to 12.01 percent, or 1.94 percent to 3.48 percent in CO2 emissions abatement potential. The hospitals; 36.8 percent and 25 percent for police stations; 65.3 percent and 50 percent for fire stations (only 3 values); 42.1 percent and 42.5 percent for densest settlements; 2.5 percent and 1.9 percent for built-up area growth (only Pristina from 1975–2014 and the rest from 1985–2015). 59 1985–2015 period except for Pristina 1975–2014. 60 World Bank. (2016). “Addressing Climate Change Challenges in ECA Cities.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24434. 61 World Bank (2021). “Overlooked: Examining the Impact of Disasters and Climate Shocks on Poverty in the Europe and Central Asia Region” (English). World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents1. worldbank.org/curated/en/493181607687673440/pdf/Overlooked-Examining-the-Impact-of- Disasters-and-Climate-Shocks-on-Poverty-in-the-Europe-and-Central-Asia-Region.pdf. 62 In 2016, with 2008 as a base year; Energy consumption here encompassing heat and electricity deliv- ered during the operational phase of a building; potential energy savings are estimated at 50 percent; World Bank. 2016. Addressing Climate Change Challenges in ECA Cities.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/24434. 35 What do we know? highest potential for energy savings is expected in the public sector (35 percent to 40 percent), followed by the residential sector (10 percent to 35 percent).63 New and existing buildings need to be assessed for resilience to current risks and future climate changes and planned or upgraded accordingly. For instance, non-implementation of building codes, standards, and quality assur- ance of concrete and steel are the other biggest challenges in Pristina. Generally, the EUROCODE building codes guide construction, but they are not enforced by law. The use of building codes depends solely on the construction companies and the engineers in charge. Poorly constructed infrastructure, such as roads and highways, is another challenge that Pristina faces. In the past, this poor construc- tion has led to bridges failing due to erosion. Climate-change impacts within informal settlements depend on city-wide infrastructure Although informal settlements in the Western Balkan cities can take varied shapes and forms,64 they are ill-prepared for climate change. Informal set- tlements face high disaster risks because of poor-quality buildings and a lack of adaptation infrastructure to prevent flooding, cope with urban heat, and with- stand landsides. These settlements are also particularly vulnerable to air pollution and inadequate drainage, thereby creating health risks for residents. The uncon- trolled growth of informal settlements contributes to further environmental deg- radation, including unsupported waste management, sewerage runoff into local water sources due to a lack of sanitation infrastructure, and erosion from flooded roadways. The infrastructure deficit in informal settlements is significant. In the Western Balkan cities, informal settlements include squatter settlements where the land occupation is illegal and often contested. They also include illegal sub- divisions—housing that is constructed without official permission but that are not on illegally occupied land.65,66 The initial period of the post-socialist transi- tion of 1990s was characterized by a fluid, unregulated institutional framework.67 In Albania, barriers to obtaining building permits and intensified rural-urban 63 Hofer, Kathrin, Dilip R. Limaye, and Jasneet Singh. (2014). “Western Balkans: Scaling Up Energy- Efficiency in Buildings.’ Working Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. 64 The typology of informal settlements in southeast Europe is diverse and varied in terms of standard of living (from slums to luxurious residences), location (from suburbs to city centers and protected areas), and size (from several small units to settlements of over 50,000 residents). 65 Informal tenure is not reserved for the poor in EECCA and the Western Balkans; populations of all income levels live in informal settlements. The key characteristic of informal settlements in the eastern part of the region is that they are urban developments that break the rules of the existing statutory, formal systems. 66 UNECE. (2013). “Informal Settlements in Countries with Economies in Transition in the UNECE Region.” https://unece.org/info/Housing-and-Land-Management/pub/2902. 67 Berisha, Erblin, Natasha Colic, Giancarlo Cotella, and Zorica Nedovic-Budic. (2018). “Mind the Gap: Spatial Planning Systems in the Western Balkan Region.” Transactions of AESOP 2 (1). 47–62. 10.24306/TrAESOP.2018.01.004. 36 RESHAPING CITIES migration overwhelmed development in Tirana; 25 percent of informal housing was developed in the 1990s. In Pristina, where the water supply is severely strained, residents of informal settlements face more water constraints and are especially vulnerable to food and water prices. In Pristina and Tirana, where the urban population has almost doubled and a large share of new development is informal, addressing the infrastructure deficit is impossible under a regime of fiscal austerity. The process is constrained not only by the lack of municipal funds and up-to-date plans but also by the incomplete land-registration systems.68 The lack of quality public infrastructure disproportionally affects vulnerable populations Infrastructure in cities, particularly residential and public buildings, needs to be able to withstand multiple hazards. Roads, urban transport networks, and sewerage and water pipelines in many Western Balkan cities are old and need upgrades.69 In Albania, the annual average well-being risk from floods and earth- quakes represents 1.75 percent of GDP versus 0.82 percent for asset risk, and the socioeconomic resilience capacity gap between wealthy and poor populations is considerable relative to other countries.70 The building stock in Western Balkan cities often lacks resilience to climate and disaster risks. In Tirana, Mostar, and Belgrade, the share of city population living in top two high-risk building types71 is 10 percent, 18 percent, and 33 percent, respec- tively.72 Impacts on these building types would contribute to 60 percent of total loss from building damage and 70 percent of all permanent residential displace- ment. In Tirana, nearly 10 percent of the city’s population resides in high-risk building types. Losses can also be much higher for vulnerable groups that suffer from direct73 and indirect disaster impacts and have more limited livelihood choices. In all of the cities, the building stock74 generally is in poor condition and lacks seismic resilience, energy efficiency, and insulation to allow for efficient temperature moderation during warm and cold days. In all of the analyzed cities, critical public assets (including schools, hospitals, and fire stations) are highly 68 Tsenkova, Sasha. (2012). “Urban Planning and Informal Cities in Southeast Europe.” Journal of Architectural and Planning Research 29: 292–305. 69 Ibid. 70 Ibid. 71 Unreinforced Masonry (URM) and Reinforced Concrete Frame (RCF). 72 World Bank. (2020). “Earthquake Risk in Multifamily Residential Buildings: Europe and Central Asia Region.” World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/401931598952181261/pdf/Earthquake-Risk-in-Multifamily-Residential-Buildings-Europe-and- Central-Asia-Region.pdf. 73 Cities facing moderate to strong earthquake hazard have an earthquake building exposure that is slightly higher than surroundings (25,000–100,000 buildings exposed) along with higher potential for damage. Average annual loss (AAL) from earthquakes normalized by average country construction costs per square meter is estimated at $10,000–$25,000 for Tirana; $2,500-$5,000 for Pristina; and $1,000–$2,500 for Niš, Novi Sad, and Sarajevo. 74 Encompassing residential dwellings, educational and cultural facilities, sports facilities, health care facilities, and administrative facilities. 37 What do we know? exposed to flooding.75 These are essential “lifeline”76 services in the case of a disaster. In addition, these cities suffer from a high share of informal buildings that are often located in risk-prone areas of the city. Current spatial patterns exacerbate risks In Western Balkan cities, the centralized planning system and territori- al-based planning have not been effective in controlling the building boom of the past 15 years. This situation has resulted in informal settlements, as well as in the inadequate enforcement and application of building codes in planned developments, increasing the risk to the population of both intensive disas- ters (such as earthquakes) and extensive disasters (such as floods). The spatial planning systems of cities in the Western Balkans region are complex, path-de- pendent systems that are still influenced by their socialist/communist legacies, as well as by subsequent transitional stages.77 The dominant spatial pattern of cities in the Western Balkans is distinguished by three characteristics: (1) hollowing out of the urban core; (2) expanding urban fringes, and (3) disjointed agglomerations. Increasing urbanization rates and the shift away from agriculture to industrial and service sectors created substantial development pressures across the cities, especially in Niš, Novi Sad, Pristina, and Sarajevo. In Niš, Novi Sad, and Sarajevo, spatial patterns of growth and decline are unequal: the decline tends to result in a hollowing out of the urban center, where properties are left vacant and in disre- pair; new growth since 1985 adopted the form of suburbanization and construc- tion on greenfield sites around the larger or growing cities. Although Pristina and Tirana saw an increase in population and economic growth, spatial planning followed similar trends concentrating development toward fringe expansion. 75 Average and median values across 5 cities for flood exposure are as follows: 40.8 percent and 47 percent for schools; 43.6 percent and 34 percent for major roads; 41.6 percent and 40 percent for hospitals; 36.8 percent and 25 percent for police stations; 65.33 percent and 50 percent for fire stations (only 3 values); 42.14 percent and 42.5 percent for densest settlements; 2.46 percent and 1.88 percent for built-up area growth (Pristina from 1975–2014; the other cities from 1985–2015). 76 Hallegatte, Stephane, Jun Rentschler, and Julie Rozenberg. (2019). Lifelines: The Resilient Infrastructure Opportunity. Sustainable Infrastructure. Washington, DC: World Bank. Link. 77 Berisha, Erblin, Natasa Colic Mrkovic, Giancarlo Cotella, and Zorica Nedovic-Budic. (2018). “Mind the Gap: Spatial Planning Systems in the Western Balkan Region.” Transactions of AESOP 2 (1): 47–62. 38 RESHAPING CITIES Approaches to disaster preparedness are centralized but siloed Western Balkan cities have centralized but siloed approaches to disaster risk preparedness and are largely unprepared for large-scale disasters. The most severe disasters that Pristina faces are flooding from heavy rains and snow. Landslides in the eastern areas are also a concern, as are fires and earthquakes. Pristina has a multi-hazard risk assessment, as well as an emergency response plan, fire protection plan, and evacuation plans for specific buildings. Overall, there is a lack of inclusion of natural hazards in local urban development plans. No municipal budget is allocated for disaster risks; the municipality can only collect a budget for damages after a disaster. Kosovo’s nascent disaster prepared- ness system is missing important elements and requires improvements in nation- al-local relationships, enhanced overall capacity, and better coordination among organizations. Kosovo’s system for response to small-scale incidents needs stra- tegic reinforcements so that it can prepare for and respond to larger-scale calam- ities and disasters. The system is orientated to response and lacks the capacity to prepare for the challenges related to climate change, pandemics, or other natural or man-made disasters.78 Tirana’s General Department of Civil Emergencies is equipped to provide rapid responses to small-scale, local-level emergencies, but it lacks the operational foundation for an effective and coordinated interagency response to larger-scale events. Key objectives include better management of surface water to improve resilience to flooding, mitigation of the urban heat island effect, and better emer- gency preparedness through advanced planning. Albania is hit by approximately one disaster a year,79 and average annual losses due to disasters constitute about 2.5 percent of GDP, or about US$68.7 million per year. Between 1980 and 2010, 16 major disasters occurred (nine floods, four earthquakes, and three extreme tem- perature events), with 163 fatalities and about 4 million people affected. Albania’s financial regulations are very well established, but actual implementation is not currently up to par, and the lack of structural funding affects the sustainabil- ity of disaster preparedness project investments. Information, facilities, equip- ment, and personnel—are all in need of further development. The system can address everyday response needs but not larger events; for example, the incident command system was not adequate to handle search and rescue operations for the November 2019 earthquake. Despite the existing legal framework, Albania contin- ues to manage disasters on an ad hoc basis.80 78 World Bank. (2021). “Albania Ready2Respond: Emergency Preparedness and Response Assessment Diagnostic Report.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/959001621917488766/pdf/Kosovo-Ready-2-Respond-Emergency-Preparedness-and-Response- Assessment-Diagnostic-Report.pdf. 79 According to the Annual World Risk Report, which calculates the Disaster Risk Index for 180 coun- tries based on exposure, sensitivity, vulnerability, and coping and adaptation capabilities, Albania ranks first in Europe and 61 in the world. 80 World Bank. (2021). “Albania Ready2Respond: Emergency Preparedness and Response Assessment Diagnostic Report.: World Bank, Washington, DC. 39 What do we know? Sarajevo faces multiple resilience challenges with heightened risks of flooding and landslides, driven by deforestation and unplanned development. Unsustainable development patterns of illegal housing, coupled with major flooding, led to 816 landslides on the hills surrounding Sarajevo between 2000 and 2014. At the national level, the Protection and Rescue sector under the Ministry of Security is charged with coordinating civil protection activities across BiH in the event of natural disasters. In 2021, the national government approved the 2021–25 Bosnia and Herzegovina Disaster Risk Reduction Strategy. More than 20 percent of BiH’s territory is prone to flooding; on average, flooding affects about 100,000 people and causes losses of about US$600 million in GDP annually. In 2014, unprec- edented rainfall affected 25 percent of the population and severely disrupted the economy. The city also faces high seismic risk; its mountainous geography, aging infrastructure, and high urbanization rate compound its vulnerability to earthquakes and landslides.81 The gaps in BiH’s disaster preparedness system are worsened by the country’s complex political and administrative structure.82 The Emergency Preparedness and Response legal system and the availability of funding vary significantly between the Brčko District, the Republic of Srpska, and the Federation, as well as between the different cantons within the Federation. Disaster risk management in Serbia is nationally coordinated by the Sector for Emergency Situations at the Ministry of Internal Affairs. This sector serves as a hub for the relevant ministries at the national level, the army, and different gov- ernmental and non-governmental organizations in responding to emergencies. Disaster management departments at the local level are tasked with preventive protection, risk management, fire, rescue, and civil protection. The provincial gov- ernment also appoints civil protection commissioners to coordinate the work of civil protection units. 81 World Bank. (2021). “Bosnia and Herzegovina-Ready2Respond: Emergency Preparedness and Response Assessment Diagnostic Report.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/bitstream/handle/10986/35715/Bosnia-and-Herzegovina-Ready-2-Respond- Emergency-Preparedness-and-Response-Assessment-Diagnostic-Report.pdf ?sequence=1. 82 The country comprises two entities of similar size, the Republic of Srpska and BiH, each with its own administrative structure. The country also includes the federal district Brčko. The 10 cantons of BiH, although very different in capacities, form a third level of government. The regions of the Republic of Srpska carry no political or administrative responsibilities. A fourth level is formed by the municipali- ties: 79 in BiH and 57 in the Republic of Srpska. 40 RESHAPING CITIES Access to adequate funding is highly limited In the Western Balkans, local governments often have budget capacity con- straints and are unable to finance the large volumes of climate-smart infra- structure needed to realize climate transitions. Access to finance is often limited by the high levels of debt and low rates of creditworthiness. Access to finance in the cities must also tackle unfinished transitions, exemplified by a myriad of inefficient state-owned enterprises, shortcomings in the legal system, limited human capital, and poor-quality public infrastructure.83 However, when comparing the estimated financial needs of the ECA region ($34.8 billion), with the reported average climate-related development finance received by ECA coun- tries in 2013 and 2014 ($283 million), and the resources approved by multilateral climate funds in the same period ($1.8 billion), it is evident that a significant gap exists. This gap needs to be reduced by leveraging and scaling up domestic and international resources to allow ECA countries to fully comply with GHG emis- sions reductions and adaptation commitments.84 Serbia is the only European country outside of the European Union to have issued a green bond. Proceeds from Serbia’s sovereign green bonds have been approved for use in financing and refinancing in the areas of renewable energy, energy effi- ciency, sustainable water and wastewater management, pollution prevention and control and circular economy, and protection of the environment and biodiversity and sustainable agriculture. 83 IMF (International Monetary Fund). European Department. (2017). “Banking Challenges in the Western Balkans: Prospects and Challenges.” In Regional Economic Outlook, November, Europe. Washington, DC: IMF. 84 Celikyilmaz, G., and C. Arguello. (2021). Climate Finance Toolkit for Europe and Central Asia. Budapest: FAO and UNEP. 41 Chapter 3 What do we do? What do we do? Pathways for Promoting Green, Resilient, Inclusive and Competitive Cities Major tasks lie ahead for WB6 cities—so that they can maintain growth, while managing to green and tackling climate-change shocks Chapter 3 draws on what it takes to transform WB6 cities into green, resil- ient, inclusive, and competitive cities. As discussed in chapter 2, climate change brings together the links between climate change and cities, with a focus on the exogenous effects on cities in the Western Balkans. Building on this, and on the deep dives presented in Part 2, the aim of this chapter is to outline what can be done about the effects of climate change on Western Balkan cities. Transforming Western Balkans cities to be more compact, connected, clean and inclusive is a crucial contribution to the triple challenge of pandemic after-effects, the global climate emergency and new rise in poverty and inequality. Reshaping cities in this way will make them more accessible, livable, sustainable, and resilient to future shocks. This chapter presents incremental and transformative adaptation and mitigation pathways to help policy makers to make informed, astute choices across an array of possible policies. Climate change presents myriad challenges, and in many cases, opportunities. The interaction between urban stresses and climate-change related stresses deter- mines outcomes, leaving local governments well placed to drive climate action.85 Local governments and city leaders can affect climate action by influencing and implementing policies put in place by national governments; designing and imple- menting city-specific initiatives; and helping coordinate collective climate action. Working with national governments, the private sector, and civil society, cities can play a pivotal role in determining the optimal combination of action pathways, their sequencing, and the prioritization of outcomes. 85 Mukim, Megha, and Mark Roberts, eds. 2022. Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38295. 44 RESHAPING CITIES GREEN pathways: Shrinking cities are an opportunity to reshape urban space Shrinking cities in the Western Balkans could be well-positioned to plan for a green, spatially targeted response to urban decline Urban planners have a new opportunity to shape a better physical environment in concert with the present economic and social needs of many shrinking cities.86 In smaller WB6 cities, expansion strategies focused on big strides in growth may be unrealistic. However, the urban shrinkage phenomenon in the Western Balkans can provide an opportunity for cities to select a development path centered around environmental protection, social equity, and sustainability. Urban spatial policies targeted to compact regeneration and green growth, as already demon- strated by Tirana’s Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (2020)87 and Warsaw’s 2030 City Development Strategy (refer to box 3.1), can help foster economic growth and development while preventing environmental degradation and climate change. Shrinking cities may consume less energy than their larger counterparts, but a declining and often more sparsely distributed population typically increases the demand for daily mobility needs and costs for infrastructure network upkeep.88 Plans shape what can go where and how, presenting visions for futures operation- alized through constellations of other policies. Shaping WB6 cities toward com- pactness would reduce the adverse effects on the environment, as well as increase accessibility and thereby inclusion, and, above all, livability. 86 Ryan, Brent D. (2012). “Rightsizing Shrinking Cities: The Urban Design Dimension.” In Margaret Dewar and June Manning Thomas (Eds.). The City After Abandonment (1st ed., pp. 268-288) Philadelphia, PA: University of Pennsylvania Press. 87 City of Tirana (2020). “Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan for the City of Tirana.” https://tirana.al/en/ uploads/2020/12/20201210161709_sump_tirana-volume-ii_the-plan_200724.pdf. 88 Liu, X., M. Wang, W. Qiang, K. Wu, and X. Wang. (2020). “Urban Form, Shrinking Cities, and Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Chinese City-Regions.” Applied Energy 261. 45 What do we do? Box 3.1 How Polish regions are transforming from environmental infrastructure degradation to urban prosperity Project: Catching-up Regions Initiative Phase 1, 2, and 3; Spatial Development Strategy for Rzeszow FUA Type: Analytics and Advisory Services, Reimbursable Advisory Services Partners: European Commission The challenge Like many WB6 cities, many functional urban areas in Poland saw a reemer- gence in the 1990s economy that was impacted by poorly organized and unintegrated public transport, bedroom neighborhoods, vacant lots, and the stark absence of legal and regulatory instruments to prevent urban sprawl. Unplanned development entailed haphazard, low density, and sprawling development led by the private sector in the absence of planning experience.89 Compared to other cities, Warsaw’s economy bounced back since then, pri- marily due to the cycle of investment in infrastructure that emphasized the metropolitan scale of investment and avoided the automobile- dependent model of growth. However, Polish mid-sized cities continued to lag. The approach The World Bank implemented tailored technical support to selected regions in Poland through the four phase (2016—20) Catching-up Regions Initiative. The scope of the program was to work directly with regions to overcome their bottom-up identified development hurdles through improved and expanded spatial planning, among other activities. In Phase 3, technical assistance focused on regions in socioeconomic decline included several components: • Optimizing transport services in low density areas • Optimization of health services in an aging society • Strengthening entrepreneurship within the Włocławek functional urban area. Additionally, the World Bank advised the Podkarpackie region in Poland on the design of the spatial development strategy for the Rzeszów Functional Urban Area, to help the Rzeszów agglomeration better prepare for further dynamic development with improved quality of life for people, environmen- tal benefits, and enhanced conditions for new investments, including in the area of a green economy. What WB6 cities can learn Redirecting growth strategies to compact development can boost the vitality of WB6 cities. Poland’s capacity to steer better density is improv- ing by reforms to address fragmented urban planning. Municipal authori- ties recognized that an integrated urban form would drive quality of life and sector competitiveness, and there is much more civic interest and debate 89 European Investment Bank (2019) Warsaw: Revival and realignment. 46 RESHAPING CITIES around street life and livability, especially among young people. In the case of Warsaw and more recently, Rzeszów, efficient land use, integrated trans- portation planning, and accessibility to local jobs and services can effectively address the development dilemma of demographically declining WB6 cities, and the climate challenges compounded by their urban sprawl. However, policy makers in WB6 cities may find measures to contain outward urban development politically challenging, and sophisticated measures to induce movement to urban centers may be required. Action #1: Revisit the planning system to unlock green development Compact cities emit fewer CO2 emissions from transport and less air pollu- tion.90 Increasing evidence suggests that more compact cities contribute less to GHG emissions.91 Less automobile dependency, complemented by better acces- sibility through other transport modes, make it easier for urban residents to get to services and jobs and to network. Compactness also increases the efficiency of public service delivery. WB6 policy makers can improve inner-city connectivity with high-density development along major transport corridors. Considering the relatively low motorization rates, WB6 cities can take early action to maintain and increase the share of greener and more inclusive modes of sustainability mobility, such as public transit, walking, and cycling92 (refer to box 3.2). Mixed-use develop- ment increases accessibility to residences, jobs, retail stores, and public services; this increased accessibility reduces vehicular trip length and frequency, encour- ages walking and bicycling, and, in turn, reduces vehicular emissions. WB6 cities should look to revise zoning and land-use regulations to limit urban sprawl and to promote mixed-use, high-density, integrated develop- ment. Land use planning and zoning regulations are at the forefront of the trans- formation of cities, driving resilient and adaptable urban development. While challenges remain in WB6 cities, the path forward is clear: collaborative gover- nance, data-driven decision-making, and public engagement will be key in reshap- ing the cities of tomorrow. The existing planning instruments in WB6 cities are predominantly regulatory in nature; they are not geared to guide private sector development and tie into broader development outcomes. At the metropolitan level, interjurisdictional collaboration should be encouraged through improved support and incentives. For example, integrating spatial planning to achieve compact and resource-efficient urban function through co-location of higher 90 OECD. (2012). “Compact City Policies: A Comparative Assessment.” OECD Green Growth Studies, OECD, Paris. https://www.oecd.org/greengrowth/compact-city-policies-9789264167865-en.htm. 91 Liu, X., M. Wang, W. Qiang, K. Wu, and X. Wang. (2020). “Urban Form, Shrinking Cities, and Residential Carbon Emissions: Evidence from Chinese City-Regions.” Applied Energy 261. 92 World Bank. (Forthcoming). “Western Balkans Urban Mobility Initiative.” 47 What do we do? residential and job densities, mixed-land use, and transit-oriented development can lower GHG emissions from 23 percent to 26 percent by 2050.93 Redesigning green, compact cities can increase resilience and build inclusiv- ity. Measures to ensure coherence and reduce spatial inequalities may help WB6 cities to remain livable. Policies that enable the compact urban form will require system-wide interventions and the potential to be combined with sustainable development objectives while pursuing climate mitigation. Designing for city com- pactness enables positive impacts on employment and green growth—concentrat- ing people and activity and therefore productivity.94 Denser, mixed-use environ- ments promote social and economic sustainability and facilitate social inclusion and equity. By enabling residents to conveniently access essential amenities and services by means of walking, cycling, or public transportation, such areas encour- age face-to-face encounters and community interaction.95 Land-use regulations and construction standards are critical instruments for building more resilient cities. Land-use tools and policies, such as zoning ordi- nances, site plan review, and resilient design guidelines, can help prepare a munic- ipality long-term for the impacts of climate change. Increases in the percentage of impervious surface—such as sidewalks, driveways, and parking lots—in rapidly growing areas can increase exposure to flood hazards and the impact of extreme heat. Land-use tools, regulations, and other policies can be used to shift devel- opment and people out of harm’s way (that is, the flood zone); protect natural systems and open spaces that provide resilience benefits; strengthen and protect built infrastructure, homes, and businesses from damage and property loss; enable and encourage the use of green infrastructure to address climate impacts; and require and incentivize resilient building and design practices in new construction and substantial retrofits.96 A wide range of proactive planning, regulatory, reward, and incentive tools can direct development investment to limit urban sprawl and promote compact, green growth. Several of these are tools that encourage compet- itiveness and desirable development. Examples include use restrictions on 93 Lwasa, S., K.C. Seto, X. Bai, H. Blanco, K.R. Gurney, Ş. Kılkış, O. Lucon, J. Murakami, J. Pan, A. Sharifi, Y. Yamagata, 2022: Urban systems and other settlements. In IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [P.R. Shukla, J. Skea, R. Slade, A. Al Khourdajie, R. van Diemen, D. McCollum, M. Pathak, S. Some, P. Vyas, R. Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A. Hasija, G. Lisboa, S. Luz, J. Malley, (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA. https:// www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg3/downloads/report/IPCC_AR6_WGIII_Chapter08.pdf. 94 Ibid. 95 Elias, P. (2020). “Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways.” In Sustainable Cities and Communities, edited by W. Leal Filho, A. Marisa Azul, L. Brandli, P. Gökçin Özuyar, and T. Wall. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-319-95717-3_32. 96 World Bank. (2013). Building Urban Resilience: Principles, Tools, and Practice. Washington, DC: World Bank. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/320741468036883799/pdf/Building-urban- resilience-principles-tools-and-practice.pdf. 48 RESHAPING CITIES developments on city outskirts; incentives for densification97 in the city center building codes that encourage higher floor-space ratios; and green construction. For instance, Italy is one of the first European Union countries to introduce such incentives. For example, the Superbonus 110 initiative offered tax credits for green renovations, which boosted the construction sector after a pandemic slump and raised GDP.98 Box 3.2 Promoting balanced regional development through local mobility in Serbia Project: Serbia Local Infrastructure and Institutional Development Project Type: Investment Project Financing Partners: Agence Française de Développement Commitment Amount: $300 million The challenge In recent decades, cities and towns in Serbia have suffered from underinvest- ment, weak infrastructure management, and environmental pollution. This situation has led to deteriorating living conditions, increased vulnerability, and considerable variability in living standards across the country. Key chal- lenges include addressing infrastructure challenges, such as weak infrastruc- ture connectivity; inadequate solid waste management; significant air, soil, and water pollution; disaster risks from floods and other natural hazards; and an aging infrastructure stock. The local self-governments (LSGs) in Serbia are responsible for the development and management of mobility infrastruc- ture; many of them suffer poor conditions due to insufficient investment and maintenance. Weaknesses in public financial management systems, poor public investment management, and lack of asset management systems con- tribute to underperformance in providing reliable local infrastructure and enabling economic development at the local level. All these factors result in the deterioration of mobility services, increased inequality of access, and increased pollution. The approach so far The Local Infrastructure and Institutional Development (LIID) project will strengthen the investment capacity of all 145 LSGs in Serbia to develop and manage green, inclusive, and resilient sustainable mobility infrastructures. LSGs will also receive technical assistance to improve efficiency in urban development, planning and implementing local investments, and operating 97 Introduced in New York City in 1961, the density bonus granted developers the right to build three additional square feet of construction in return for every one square foot of public space improve- ment provided at the street level within their property. This program was responsible for the develop- ment of over 500 privately built public spaces in Manhattan over three decades. 98 The Superbonus110 program has been amended since it was first initiated in 2020 to overcome fiscal caveats in the initial rollout of the program. 49 What do we do? and maintaining local infrastructures. Technical assistance provided to LSGs will position them to adopt robust planning frameworks, enhance service delivery, improve the integration of climate issues in urban planning, and increase their capacity to access external financing. The first objective is to improve the well-being of the 7 million inhabitants of Serbia, with a partic- ular focus on the most economically vulnerable local communities that are susceptible to the impacts of climate change. Through this project, efforts will be directed to reducing both social and geographical disparities, while also enhancing access to essential services, job opportunities, and markets; there will be dedicated measures to enhance the mobility of women within these communities. The project will play a pivotal role in promoting a low-carbon development in Serbian cities. This will be achieved by redistrib- uting the allocation of public spaces to prioritize active modes of transporta- tion, such as walking and cycling. What WB6 cities can learn The LIID project is set to enhance the operational effectiveness and efficiency of the LSGs. The project will involve more meticulous planning of investment activities, as well as better management of operational and maintenance expenses. The project envisions formal agreements with LSGs to uphold prin- ciples of good governance and prudent financial management. This strate- gic approach will consequently facilitate the preparedness of LSGs to effec- tively harness financial instruments available through European financing instruments. Action #2: Promote adaptive reuse, energy-efficient building retrofits, and the regeneration of brownfields WB6 cities can champion the reuse of existing building stock to catalyze change and foster diverse urban environments. Retrofitting buildings to do both—lower seismic risk and increase energy efficiency—can have large returns on investments (refer to box 3.3). Urban cores should be prioritized in plans; projects and resource allocation and regeneration strategies should be supported by finan- cial and non-financial incentives targeting regeneration needs, such as refurbish- ment of multifamily apartments; provision of well-located affordable housing; and reconversion of disused industrial or heritage buildings and public open spaces such as parks, theaters, and pedestrian boulevards. Certain zoning techniques are increasingly being used to reshape cities and advance policy updates with the potential to promote a healthier, greener, and more equitable and resilient future. When aligned with complementary city policies—like building and energy codes— zoning reforms can promote public- and private-sector investment that advances key goals. 50 RESHAPING CITIES Box 3.3 Two-for-one opportunities: Retrofitting and urban regeneration programs offer scope for strategic direction changes to low-carbon and high-resilience urban form and function in Türkiye Project: The Seismic Resilience and Energy Efficiency in Public Buildings Project Type: Investment Project Financing Commitment Amount: $265 million The challenge Globally, buildings account for about 40 percent of energy use. Roughly one- third of Türkiye’s energy consumption is used to operate public, commercial, and residential buildings. Like some WB6 countries, it is also highly exposed to earthquakes; it experienced 76 earthquakes since 1900 that resulted in approximately 90,000 deaths, affected more than 7 million people, and produced direct losses exceeding $425 billion. The approach The Seismic Resilience and Energy Efficiency in Public Buildings Project (SREEPBP) will promote a strategic national approach to increasing energy efficiency and seismic performance in public buildings through an inte- grated approach that can be scaled to address challenges in the rest of the building stock in Türkiye—where a substantial potential for energy-efficiency improvements can be found, particularly in the approximately 175,000 public buildings in operation around the country.99 SREEPBP will better insulate, strengthen, or reconstruct more than 140 schools, dormitories, hospitals, and government buildings, directly benefiting about 26,000 people who live, work, or use these buildings, including school children. More broadly, the benefits will accrue to more than 6 million citizens who rely on the public services provided by the targeted buildings. What WB6 cities can learn Energy efficiency is critical to the ability of these cities to both maintain their economic growth and meet their commitments to climate change and environmental sustainability. Often, buildings with the greatest vulnerabil- ity to disasters tend to also be energy inefficient. By combining the struc- tural strengthening of buildings with energy efficiency and renewable energy measures, a two-for-one approach can yield significant cost efficiencies while fostering long-term resilience and sustainability. 99 Based on a World Bank assessment in 2016, the technical energy-efficiency potential in public buildings is about 10,043 GWh annually, requiring about TRY 64.5 billion ($8.6 billion) in investments. 51 What do we do? Action #3: Integrate waste management for resilience against multiple hazards A key component of achieving the European Union’s Green Deal is ensuring that WB6 cities follow the principles of the circular economy to prevent and reduce the negative effects of using primary resources on the environment and society. Solid waste-related adaptation options include protecting critical infrastructure, reducing facility needs through recycling and demand manage- ment, and requiring waste treatment facilities to prepare adaptation plans. The most widely adopted principle for improving municipal solid waste management is the “waste hierarchy,” which offers a guiding framework for the development and long-term planning of the waste management sector. Waste disposal in a landfill is the least desirable option on the waste hierarchy; recycling and reusing waste and eventually preventing waste altogether are the most preferred measures. The ultimate aspiration is for municipalities to transition the waste sector to resource efficiency, which yields better human and environmental health outcomes. Waste management solutions can support cities in building resilience and inclusivity. WB6 cities can be the ambassadors for the official recognition and integration of informal waste workers into public policies, including at the national level. These cities have an opportunity to design local policies based on the active and meaningful participation of informal waste workers, notably, the most disadvantaged groups within the chain. Cities can also grant access to public infrastructure and storage spaces to improve the environment and working con- ditions of informal waste workers, which, in turn, could boost informal workers’ entrepreneurship, businesses, and livelihoods, while facilitating cooperation between formal and informal players through extended-polluter responsibility, reverse logistics, and sustainable procurement. RESILIENT pathways: WB6 cities must prepare for, mitigate, and adapt to acute shocks and chronic stresses Cities in the Western Balkans should reduce risk and build resilience within their communities to increase their capacity to cope with, adapt to, and shape change. They have an opportunity to shape resilient development by guiding where development takes place; regulating building design and construc- tion; managing the delivery of critical infrastructure, such as power, transport, and waste; providing basic services; influencing land use and availability; providing early warnings; supporting community action; and preparing for disaster response 52 RESHAPING CITIES systems.100 Indeed, building resilience in WB6 cities might also entail no-regret investments, that is, investments that would perform well in different risk scenar- ios. WB6 national and local governments should create policies that enable cities to invest in risk management to prevent and prepare for the impact of chronic stressors and acute shocks driven by climate change. Transformative change is essential for tackling the challenges of climate impacts; by investing in risk man- agement, WB6 cities will be well positioned to deal with the compounding, cas- cading effects of climate change with natural hazards, pandemics, socioeconomic shocks, and fiscal blows.101 Action #1: Invest in nature-based solutions to reduce climate risk An effective city adaptation strategy is to expand, connect, and provide better access to green and blue areas. WB6 cities can take the approach of working with nature to comprehensively reshape and retrofit urban areas to both provide for current needs and facilitate adaptation to future challenges. Nature- based solutions (NBS) can be an opportunity for innovation, and if promoted by both policy makers and practitioners, they can serve as a cost-effective way of creating a greener, more sustainable, and more competitive economy.102 For example, green and blue strategies, such as urban forests and stream renaturation, can help to dampen the UHI effect and heat wave impacts in cities, in addition to supporting well-being, particularly for disadvantaged communities.103 Certain investments can have multiple developmental benefits. Some types of water man- agement infrastructure and NBS can support urban cooling and reduce flood risk; increasing urban forest cover can support both reduced landslide and flood risk while aiding urban cooling.104 Green infrastructure asset management can maximize resilience benefits. Urban trees are a critical component of community infrastructure. Cities can take advantage of decentralized control over urban tree management programs. As described in Part 2, WB6 cities are heavily forested at the urban-rural interface, creating an opportunity for cities to integrate firebreaks around critical assets, such as landfill or primary access roads. Retaining and growing trees and vegeta- tion in the urban center will provide important cooling benefits. WB6 cities can look to regulatory and financial policy instruments105 for mainstreaming NBS while also looking for entry points to deploy enabling 100 World Bank. 2013. Building Urban Resilience: Principles, Tools, and Practice. Washington, DC: World Bank. 101 Mukim, Megha, and Mark Roberts, eds. 2023. Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate. Washington, DC: World Bank. Link. 102 Tozer, L., and L. Xie. 2020. “Mainstreaming Nature-Based Solutions: Climate Change.” NATURVATION Guide. https://naturvation.eu/system/files/mainstreaming_nbs_for_climate_change.pdf. 103 EEA (European Environment Agency). 2022. “Who Benefits from Nature in Cities? Social Inequalities in Access to Urban Green and Blue Spaces across Europe?” https://www.eea.europa.eu/down- loads/803a2dd9755941439d2f70d5fa1d2e19/1675774183/who-benefits-from-nature-in.pdf. 104 C40 Knowledge. 2021. “How to Reduce Flood Risk in Your City.” https://www.c40knowledgehub. org/s/article/How-to-reduce-flood-risk-in-your-city?language=en_US. 105 Faivre, N., M. Fritz, Tiago Freitas, et al. (2017) “Nature-Based Solutions in the EU: Innovating with Nature to Address Social, Economic and Environmental Challenges.” Environmental Research 159: 509–18. 53 What do we do? policies at the local level. Command and control instruments, such as manda- tory requirements, can be implemented at the city level. For example, point-based systems in Berlin and Stockholm evaluate if spatial planning proposals meet minimum requirements for the quantity and quality of NBS provision. Barcelona integrated an NBS policy and produced a green infrastructure plan when the city pledged 1 m2 of greenspace per city resident by 2030 as part of its 2015 Commitment to Climate plan. Action #2: Plan for emergency preparedness and response initiatives that help cities respond more quickly and effectively to climate events Emergency response and preparedness and recovery planning are crucial ways to build resilience and ease the reconstruction and recovery efforts. Disasters triggered by natural hazards can strike suddenly, with devastating con- sequences on people, infrastructure, assets, and economies. Lockdowns, supply chain interruptions, and often a sharp decline in commercial activity lead to substantial economic hardships for households, businesses, and governments, causing extensive disturbances to lives and livelihoods. Working in close part- nership with public safety and public health agencies, WB6 cities should plan and prepare for emergencies, educate the public about emergency preparedness, conduct training exercises and drills for relevant stakeholders, and perform other services to support the cities’ overall preparedness. In addition, WB6 cities should invest in robust early warning systems and should continually update existing ones based on reliable data. A strong and inclusive recovery requires identifying the measures and interventions that will maximize public infrastructure invest- ments and community well-being for generations to come. Non-capital interventions can improve resilience through enhancements in capacity. By reducing service and asset vulnerability to climate impacts, and by increasing adaptive capacity, local and national governments can reduce the costs of disaster events, while realizing greater value from infrastructure investments (refer to box 3.4).106 Working with national and local partners, WB6 cities can shift away from reactive maintenance activities and move to a preventative approach to reduce the likelihood of asset failure, thereby improving resilience through enhancements in capacity. Precautionary operating policies can protect critical assets. For instance, imposing lower water pressure during a drought can relieve strained water supply, and sandbagging critical assets as part of an early warning and action system can prevent damage from floods. Collaboration with city com- munities is another important non-capital intervention—for example, cities can ask citizens to reduce non-essential water or electricity risk during a drought or during an energy shortage. New assets must be planned, designed, located, built, and operated to anticipate and respond to climate risks. 106 Navid Hanif, Caroline Lombardo, Daniel Platz, Claire Chan, Jaffer Machano, Dmitry Pozhidaev and Suresh Balakrishnan, eds. (2021). Managing Infrastructure Assets for Sustainable Development: A Handbook for Local and National Governments. New York: United Nations. Link. 54 RESHAPING CITIES Box 3.4 In Romania, preparedness investments pay for themselves, multifold Project: Romania—Building Disaster and Climate Resilience Program Project Type: DPL + CAT-DDO Commitment Amount: $493 million The challenge The effects of climate change in Romania have substantially increased in recent decades, bringing more frequent landslides, wildfires, droughts, and extreme weather events.107 In 2006, for example, extreme floods caused economic damage equivalent to 1 percent of GDP. Romania faces one of the highest risks of earthquakes among European Union countries; thousands of lives have been lost and tens of thousands of buildings have been damaged in earthquakes over the past 200 years. Romania is also one of the most flood- prone countries in Europe; nearly 1 million Romanians live in areas exposed to a high risk of floods. Like a number of countries, Romania benefited from disbursements under a World Bank-provided catastrophe contingent line of credit after the COVID-19 (coronavirus) pandemic triggered the Catastrophe- Deferred Drawdown Options (CAT-DDOs). The approach Romania was able to benefit from the CAT-DDO facility that the gov- ernment negotiated with the World Bank in 2018. The objective of this program is to strengthen Romania’s institutional and legal framework to effectively manage the physical, social, and fiscal impacts of health emergen- cies, natural disasters, and climate change. Aimed at supporting the gov- ernment with critical policy reforms to build resilience, this facility enables access to financing within 48 hours in response to a disaster risk or health emergency. The Government of Romania activated €400 million of prear- ranged financial support from the World Bank to help prevent and respond to the COVID–19 pandemic to strengthen health services and to minimize the losses to both the public and private sectors. What WB6 cities can learn Prevention and preparedness make economic sense—from strengthening infrastructure to developing policies and programs that help safeguard the most vulnerable against disaster impacts. Quick access to predictable financ- ing is critical for emergency response, as even small delays cost lives and livelihoods. Building resilience to shocks is a central element of a successful development strategy and is at the core of achieving more inclusive growth in WB6 cities. 107 From 1970 to 2016, 85 catastrophic events were recorded in Romania, including 47 floods, 4 earthquakes, and 2 droughts that affected almost 2 million people and cost more than $6 billion in losses. 55 What do we do? INCLUSIVE pathways: Design multidimensional and innovative interventions for urban inclusion Growth in the Western Balkans has the potential to create opportunities for a better life, provide a pathway out of poverty, and act as an engine of economic growth. Tackling inequality alongside climate change and other envi- ronmental challenges is central to sustainable urban development. More extreme weather events—from extended heat waves to rising sea levels and flood risk—are exacerbating inequalities and reshaping sustainable urban planning and devel- opment. WB6 cities are focal points for activities that are critical to the develop- ment of the region, such as trade, business, governance, and transportation. Rising inequality and exclusion of vulnerable or marginalized groups from services, markets, and opportunities impede the participation of these groups in the economy and society.108 Policies aimed at spatial inclusiveness—providing access to land, housing, and infrastructure; social equity to ensue rights and participa- tion; and economic efficiency to secure opportunities for all—often yield double benefits in the form of environmental improvements. Local and fiscal autonomy is critical for cities to seize opportunities and address the challenges of making growth inclusive. WB6 cities must pursue dialogue with national government to support inclusive growth in cities by formulating national urban policies that provide the enabling environment for cities to develop long-term programs for inclusive growth.109 Action #1: Harness the power of community and partnerships A broad and inclusive public consultation process can help ensure that a vision is well designed, is widely accepted by society, and can deliver results that respond to local priorities. An inclusive approach to low carbon transi- tions emphasizes the need to engage businesses, research organizations, nonprofit organizations, social and community groups, and citizens. For example, inform- ing citizens and organizations about the specific impacts and costs of pollution and the benefits of a clean energy transition for them is crucial to raise awareness and encourage their involvement in the low-carbon transition. Another emerging example of citizen empowerment—in particular, citizen investment in renew- able projects undertaken through energy initiatives, such as energy cooperatives and crowdfunding—have become increasingly popular in the European Union. Social energy initiatives promote energy localization and decentralization, which 108 World Bank. (2021). “Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Development (GRID). World Bank, Washington, DC. 109 CEB (Council of Europe Development Bank). (2018). “Promoting Inclusive Growth in Cities” Technical brief, CEB. https://coebank.org/media/documents/Technical_Brief_4_Promoting_ Inclusive_Growth_in_Cities.pdf. 56 RESHAPING CITIES subsequently enhance social cohesion and contribute to the local economy by creating green jobs. By promoting citizen engagement, grassroots initiatives help create a more informed and participatory democracy where citizens have a direct role in shaping public policy. Modes of urban development and financing can be diversified through inclusionary instruments. WB6 cities should work to create a framework to include diverse perspectives to design and monitor development policies, as well as private sector investment projects, to improve accountability and enhance delivery. Promoting community-driven development to generate a local response to resource degradation can help strengthen local institutions to build capacity and promote climate resilience and meaningful partnerships. WB6 cities can also apply tested instruments of inclusion not typical to the region. For example, com- munity land trusts and inclusionary zoning can be socially inclusive methods to protect those who are vulnerable to displacement caused by gentrification because of urban regeneration.110 Action #2: Invest in public service delivery and strengthen social protections to build social resilience Investing in more inclusive and reliable health, housing, education, water supply, and sanitation services builds stronger and more resilient commu- nities. Provision of basic and even enhanced infrastructure services, accompa- nied by improved connectivity to areas with jobs, contributes to inclusion.111 Harnessing data and making use of digitalization offer an opportunity for WB6 cities to strengthen trust among citizens, including by fostering effective collabo- ration between governments and civil society. WB6 cities must lean on technology to facilitate the provision of basic services; geographic information systems can be used to implement waste management, basic service delivery, innovations in water and sanitation, and land-use monitoring.112 For example, in Port-au-Prince, Haiti, the World Bank used cellphone data records, combined with machine learning techniques, to identify the most common traffic patterns, as well as the vulnerabilities of the transport network subject to flooding risk, to better plan and protect the city’s transport infrastructure going forward. Given the significant scale of energy poverty in the Western Balkans, it is nec- essary to develop local-level support programs in addition to national-level programs. The need to improve social protection systems in the WB6 countries has become more salient, given the impacts of overlapping global crises such as 110 SHICC (2021) Case Studies. Community Land Trusts in Europe. Sustainable Housing for Inclusive and Cohesive Cities. https://www.nweurope.eu/media/12696/shicc_detailed-case-studies_fv.pdf 111 World Bank. (2015). “Inclusive Cities Approach Paper.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://docu- ments1.worldbank.org/curated/en/402451468169453117/pdf/AUS8539-REVISED-WP-P148654- PUBLIC-Box393236B-Inclusive-Cities-Approach-Paper-w-Annexes-final.pdf. 112 Elias, P. (2020). “Inclusive City, Perspectives, Challenges, and Pathways.” In Sustainable Cities and Communities, edited by W. Leal Filho, A. Marisa Azul, L. Brandli, P. Gökçin Özuyar, and T. Wall. Encyclopedia of the UN Sustainable Development Goals. Springer, Cham. https://doi. org/10.1007/978-3-319-95717-3_32. 57 What do we do? the COVID-19 pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and high inflation. WB6 governments should adopt a participatory and transparent approach to devel- oping bottom-up plans that align with local development plans. Social protec- tions can eradicate energy poverty through income-based support, social benefits, vouchers, or other forms of subsidy to cover monthly electricity consumption. Support for energy-efficient improvements, such as home weatherization or the use of low-carton heating technologies, are other options that would not only reduce household energy consumption and bills but also offset the negative impact that removing fossil fuel subsidies will have on disposable income.113 Action #3: Strengthen the role of women and excluded groups in society by supporting their integration into the labor market Local governments should address the lower representation of women in formal labor markets.114, 115 Underperforming labor markets leave many without attractive opportunities; these markets strain the ability of citizens to be mutually supportive, and they undermine social cohesion, rendering contribution-based social protection systems unsustainable.116 Socially cohesive societies are deemed to provide better and more all-encompassing social protection systems born from similar values; a shared understanding of the common good helps to identify gen- erally acceptable compromises for the design of social protection system.117, 118 Cities should work with firms and businesses to provide appropriate frame- works for flexible work arrangements, parttime work, and access to child care to address the root causes of gender imbalances in the labor market. Well-designed and improved active labor market policies119 connect excluded groups to formal employment and productivity, which, in turn, provides income and reduces finan- cial pressures on the social protection system, creating an opportunity to improve its quality.120 113 OECD. (2022). “Multi-dimensional Review of the Western Balkans: From Analysis to Action.” OECD Development Pathways, OECD, Paris. https://doi.org/10.1787/8824c5db-en. 114 In 2019, the participation of women in the labor market was among the lowest in Europe. Women made up about 40 percent of the employed in Western Balkan labor markets, ranging from about 44 percent in Albania, Montenegro, and Serbia to a low of 21 percent in Kosovo. 115 World Bank. (2019). “Western Balkans Labor Market Trends.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 116 OECD. (2022). “Multi-dimensional Review of the Western Balkans: From Analysis to Action.” OECD Development Pathways, OECD, Paris. 117 Burchi, F., Loewe, M., Malerba, D. et al. (2022). Disentangling the Relationship Between Social Protection and Social Cohesion: Introduction to the Special Issue. Eur J Dev Res 34, 1195–1215. 118 Several countries have introduced or expanded social protection programmes to promote peace building, conflict prevention and inclusion of particular social groups, including ethnic minorities and indigenous populations. 119 The economies of the Western Balkans have various ALMPs in place, but overall participation is low. For example, sheltered jobs and supported return to work are the main form of ALMP in BiH and Serbia. 120 World Bank. 2022. “Unemployment Benefits, Active Labor Market Policies, and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from New Global Data.” Policy Research Working Paper, World Bank, Washington, DC. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/37367. 58 RESHAPING CITIES Entrepreneurship development programs should be implemented in WB6 cities with high levels of informal employment and self-employment. Activating the long-term unemployed and people belonging to groups, including Roma, who have never had the opportunity to participate in employment, through intensified individualized support and collaboration with stakeholders can avoid further deterioration of valuable skills. Coordinated policy efforts to create adequate employment opportunities while establishing and enhancing social protection systems offer opportunities for citizens to participate, foster a sense of belonging, promote trust in society, and fight exclusion. Action #4: Combine spatial approaches with social interventions for multisector solutions. Interventions to address inclusion can be targeted to one or more compo- nents, based on the needs and demands of the respective societies (refer to Box 3.5). A multisector and integrated approach can mitigate the impact of policies and projects in one sector that can affect the functioning of other sectors, sometimes with unfavorable impacts.121 For example, mass transit systems are largely beneficial; however, they can impact land markets by increasing land values and rents along the route. Integration of affordable housing investment with public transport may be one of the most powerful tools to foster vibrant cities and counter inequality. Also, sustainable transportation initiatives and passive heating in underserved neighborhoods in cities can be fueled through energy byproducts of solid waste treatment facilities. 121 ADB (Asian Development Bank). (2016). “Enabling Inclusive Cities: Toolkit for Inclusive Urban Development.” Manila. http://dx.doi.org/10.22617/TIM157428. 59 What do we do? Box 3.5 At the heart of competitiveness in Colombian cities lies the creation of an environment that fosters green, resilient, and inclusive development Project: Colombia—Second Programmatic Productive & Sustainable Cities Development Policy Loan Type: Development Policy Loan Commitment Amount: $700 million The challenge Although WB6 cities and cities in Colombia have contrasting demographic and socioeconomic trends, they share relatable similar development chal- lenges of cities in transition. Existing assets are too often deteriorating due to lack of maintenance. The efficiency and productivity of urban systems in Colombia are essential components in the country’s transition from a mid- dle-income, commodity-driven society to a higher-income economy rooted in knowledge and manufacturing.122 The approach In 2014, the World Bank approved the Productive and Sustainable Cities Development Policy Loan (DPL) for use in the urban development and trans- portation sectors, which have traditionally relied on investment opera- tions. The DPL provided the government with flexible financial support and fostered the sector reforms essential for catalyzing investment and reducing pollution, congestion, and lack of affordable housing. The DPL supported the Colombia National Development Plan 2014–18, using a territorial and regional approach that recognizes the System of Cities framework and new National Urban Policy and using regional-level indicators to track progress. What WB6 cities can learn Like Colombian cities, WB6 cities can benefit from key reforms to increase productivity, sustainability, and inclusiveness. Strengthening interjuris- dictional coordination among municipalities across levels of government, improving urban connectivity and regional infrastructure, enhancing envi- ronmental efficiency, and improving service delivery to low-income house- holds are some overlapping key reform aspects. 122 World Bank. (2020). “Colombia: Programmatic Productive and Sustainable Cities Development Policy Loans. World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents.world- bank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/426591583968971309/ colombia-programmatic-productive-and-sustainable-cities-development-policy-loans. 60 RESHAPING CITIES COMPETITIVE pathways: Banking on the future of resilient cities In a context of urban decline, increasing city competitiveness is a priority for jobs and growth in the Western Balkans. Cities are drivers of economic outcomes at the national level through their effects on structural transforma- tion and economic productivity. As urban economies in the region are expected to benefit from growth opportunities influenced by European Union accession, technological advancements, and globalization,123 national governments should strongly focus on these opportunities as engines for growth and job creation. Government activity alone is not sufficient to reshape the urban economy: the private-sector—which create jobs, make investments, and seek new markets for their products—are the true drivers of every region’s economic activity. To promote competitiveness at the city level, WB6 cities should apply the full extent of their capacity to engage more deeply with the private sector.124 Local governments can do much to reduce jurisdictional barriers and enhance coordination among differ- ent tiers of government and to create an environment where businesses can thrive. Action #1: Coordinate closely with private actors for green economies, jobs, and innovation City administrations need to focus on supporting and growing tradable industries and expanding existing ones. Economy-wide reforms are vital and will require establishing appropriate policies for institutions and regulations, skills and innovation, and enterprise support and finance, as well as facilitating indus- try-specific interventions. Cities can support small and medium businesses by fos- tering communities of practice and by creating platforms for knowledge exchange and mentorship to support small and medium businesses to realize productivity gains. Capacity building for local banks could improve financing for renewable energy projects. To improve the perception of renewables as a low-risk invest- ment opportunity for financing institutions, WB6 governments should implement several measures, including streamlining procedures for energy infrastructure permitting and licensing; standardizing project documentation; and establishing safeguarding policies. Standardized power purchase agreements, which include specific clauses on monitoring and safeguarding policies, can also be employed to enhance monitoring efforts.125 By taking these steps, WB6 economies can reduce 123 World Bank. (2019). “Western Balkans and Croatia Urbanization and Territorial Review.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/404331565242902772/pdf/ Western-Balkans-and-Croatia-Urbanization-and-Territorial-Review.pdf. 124 World Bank. (2015). “Competitive Cities for Jobs and Growth.” World Bank, Washington, DC. http:// hdl.handle.net/10986/23227. 125 OECD. (2022). “Multi-dimensional Review of the Western Balkans: From Analysis to Action, OECD Development Pathways.” OECD, Paris. 61 What do we do? the current perception of renewables as a high-risk investment and attract more financing opportunities for renewable energy projects. In 2020, a Skopje munici- pality initiated a project to establish energy communities that could help support the financing, advancement, and utilization of renewable energy resources. Such energy communities enable households and multi-unit residential buildings to collaborate and invest in various forms of renewable energy, including photovol- taic solar, wind, and biomass, and thereby become energy producers.126 Action #2: Increase the scope of city finance Disaster risk management and financing should reduce the impacts of climate change on communities, the private sector, and public entities. Globally, cities are and will continue to be on the frontline of the climate crisis. Finance and insurance instruments aim to minimize the financial impact of disas- ters and to secure access to post-disaster financing before an event strikes, thus ensuring rapid, cost-effective resources to finance recovery and reconstruction efforts (refer to box 3.4). If specific enabling conditions are met, cities can acquire funds through municipal bonds, dedicated municipal trust funds, and public-pri- vate partnerships (PPPs). Such instances offer the opportunity for city govern- ments to introduce green financing mechanisms that encourage the mobilization of urban climate finance.127 WB6 cities have allocated more resources to social protection after the COVID-19 pandemic, and they have also experienced a loss of local revenue streams due to the concurrent economic crisis.128 This reduction in revenue has further limited the capacity of some WB6 cities to enhance service delivery. Systems of local finance that concentrate resource in major cities are desir- able.129 The capacity of cities to develop their financial sustainability and resil- ience depends on their ability to access a diverse range of revenue sources to pay for urban service delivery investments, operations, and maintenance. Although the functions delegated to local governments differ across the Western Balkans, the responsibility for urban infrastructure has consistently remained under the authority of local jurisdictions. Conventional sources of municipal finance are insufficient to address the sustainable development challenges that cities face, and innovative financial strategies can help cities overcome the multiple barriers to accessing climate finance. City governments have the option of generating funds to support their investment and expenditure by collecting own source revenue. An increasing number of cities is using green bonds to finance low-car- bon projects. Cities can look to impact-based financing instruments, such as social impact bonds, intended to unlock private finance for social impact while 126 Ibid. 127 World Bank. (2021). “State of Cities Climate Finance 2021 Part 2: The Enabling Conditions for Mobilizing Urban Climate Finance.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 128 World Bank. (2022). Western Balkans Regular Economic Report, Number 22, “Fall: Beyond the Crises.” Washington, DC: World Bank. 129 Rural areas are losing population, which suggests that the need for infrastructure spending will be concentrated in large cities. 62 RESHAPING CITIES providing incentives for efficiency gains by linking government payments to predetermined outcomes.130 There is growing interest in the region in using carbon-pricing instruments to incentivize low-carbon investments and mobilize climate finance in urban spaces. Cities can deploy carbon pricing instruments that can be incorporated as part of the cities’ climate strategy, including emissions trading schemes; tax instruments, such as fossil fuel tax or the removal of fossil fuel subsidies; and the establishment of an internal price on carbon that is reflected on the municipal balance sheet.131 At a minimum, WB6 city governments that are yet to tap into vol- untary carbon markets should prepare to pursue internal carbon pricing to inform capital investment planning infrastructure and decisions, address the regulatory risk of carbon pricing requirements, and send a signal to private sector actors operating in the city space. Action #3: Develop bankable investment proposals Returns can be reimagined in order to make adaptation projects bankable. Although adaptation projects have clear social and economic benefits for cities, the cost savings and return on investment can be less clear for private sector actors. To increase investment confidence, WB6 cities can build an enabling environment for firms to invest in their own adaptation. Achieving this involves making data and risk assessments publicly available and facilitating knowl- edge-sharing and cooperation among parties. WB6 cities have the power to raise awareness about locally relevant climate hazards and their expected harm to the city, firms, and people. Involving firms in identifying interdependencies between climate hazards and business operations can help develop risk reduction plans and proposals. Cities must clarify investment opportunities and advantages associated with adaptation investments. If WB6 cities are to attract private investment in climate adaptation measures, a change of narrative is needed, effectively promot- ing the idea of city-based adaptation as a substantial investment opportunity. Projects must be made bankable through the quality of their design and the suc- cessful articulation of their intrinsic benefits. 130 CEB (Council of Europe Development Bank). (2018). “Promoting Inclusive Growth in Cities.” Technical Brief, CEB. 131 World Bank. (2021). “State of Cities Climate Finance 2021 Part 2: The Enabling Conditions for Mobilizing Urban Climate Finance.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 63 What do we do? To achieve GRID pathways, climate action in WB6 cities will require multilevel involvement The interaction between urban stresses and climate-change-related stresses determines outcomes, leaving local governments well placed to drive climate action.132 Because cities are shaped by governments but often built and financed by private actors, ambitious, integrated, and accelerated action in cities will require collaboration and coordination among many different actors. Local gov- ernments and city leaders can affect the shaping, and reshaping of Western Balkan cities, and climate action, by aligning behaviors and incentives behind a shared vision by influencing and implementing policies put in place by national govern- ments; designing and implementing city-specific initiatives; and helping coordi- nate collective climate action. Working with national governments, multilateral institutions, the private sector, small enterprises, and civil society, cities are best positioned to lead the way in determining the combination of action pathways, their sequencing, and the prioritization of outcomes. At the grassroots level, com- munities are often at the forefront of leading climate action. Local governments and mayors can affect climate action by influencing and implementing policies put in place by national and regional governments, responding to designing and implementing city-specific policies and initiatives; and helping coordinate col- lective climate action in their cities.133 As shown by the Covenant of Mayors134 ini- tiative, strong leadership and agency are needed by political leaders to overcome barriers to policy implementation, as well as local conflicts of interest or vested interests.135 WB6 countries will benefit from focusing on local governments, their implementation capacities, and funding to help identify meaningful opportunities for future development. Given often complex governance structures at the local 132 Mukim, Megha, and Mark Roberts, eds. 2022. Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38295. 133 De Coninck, H., A. Revi, M. Babiker, P. Bertoldi, M. Buckeridge, A. Cartwright, W. Dong, J. Ford, S. Fuss, J.-C. Hourcade, D. Ley, R. Mechler, P. Newman, A. Revokatova, S. Schultz, L. Steg, and T. Sugiyama, 2018: Strengthening and Implementing the Global Response. In: Global Warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the impacts of global warming of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels and related global greenhouse gas emission pathways, in the context of strengthening the global response to the threat of climate change, sustainable development, and efforts to eradicate poverty [MassonDelmotte,V., P. Zhai, H.-O. Pörtner, D. Roberts, J. Skea, P.R. Shukla, A. Pirani, W. Moufouma- Okia, C. Péan, R. Pidcock, S. Connors, J.B.R. Matthews, Y. Chen, X. Zhou, M.I. Gomis, E. Lonnoy, T. Maycock, M. Tignor, and T. Waterfield (eds.)]. In Press. 134 The EU Covenant of Mayors for Climate & Energy is an initiative supported by the European Commission bringing together thousands of local governments that want to secure a better future for their citizens. By joining the initiative, they voluntarily commit to implementing EU climate and energy objectives. 135 Kona, A., P. Bertoldi, Fabio Montfort-Ferrario, Silvia Rivas, and Jean François Dallemand. 2018. “Covenant of Mayors Signatories Leading the Way towards 1.5 Degree Global Warming Pathway.” Sustainable Cities and Society 41: 568–75. 64 RESHAPING CITIES level, for example, in BiH, coordinated metropolitan area governance is critical because effective adaptation demands more integrated planning. National WB6 governments are tasked with enhancing local climate action through local urban policies. These governments also have the critical role of propelling green-resilient-inclusive-competitive action pathways by building awareness of climate impacts, encouraging economic growth, providing incen- tives, and establishing legislative frameworks conducive to adaptation.136 For instance, national governments can drive a sectoral approach and create plans that mainstream climate action; they can impose regulatory measures; they can spur the transition to a greener economy; and they can play the leading role in embedding social protection into climate plans. Importantly, national govern- ments hold the key to setting policy frameworks for insurance for high levels of risk. WB6 governments must act as a central pivot for coordinating, planning, determining policy priorities, and distributing resources, while remaining account- able to the region and advancing the climate dialogue with the European Union. Higher levels of government in WB6 countries will need to commit to policy and investment approaches that support local governments and give them incentives to better plan for and invest in addressing climate change impacts. Climate action requires multilevel governance from the local and community levels to the national, regional, and international levels.137 National policies and transnational governance should be designed to be complementary rather than competitive; strong national policies should favor transnational engagement of subnational nonstate actors. In addition, local initiatives could be comple- mentary with higher level policies and can be integrated in the multilevel gover- nance system. Adaptation planning in WB6 cities is affected by scale mismatches between the local manifestation of climate impacts and the diverse scales at which the problem is driven.138 136 Mukim, Megha, and Mark Roberts, eds. 2022. Thriving: Making Cities Green, Resilient, and Inclusive in a Changing Climate. Washington, DC: World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38295. 137 A study of 29 European countries showed that the rapid adoption and diffusion of adaptation policy making is largely driven by internal factors, at the national and subnational levels (Massey et al., 2014). 138 World Bank. Forthcoming. Western Balkans Regional Country Climate and Development Report. 65 Part 2 What do we do? Compendium of City Cases Part 1 of the report lays out an analytical framework demonstrating how cities and climate change are inexorably linked in the Western Balkans—detailing how climate- related shocks and stressors impact cities, and in turn, how urban development affects climate. In this part of the report, deeper insights for select cities in the region demonstrate the heterogeneity of the effects of climate change across a variety of different stressors—and how these compound and manifest over geography and time. The focus on Niš, Novi Sad, Pristina, Sarajevo, and Tirana (referred to as the WB5 cities) was driven by a com- bination of technical and practical parameters. Technically, the WB5 cities reflect differ- ent typologies, given their size, level of development, capital versus secondary status, and level of capabilities, among other factors. Practically, the choices were driven by the gaps in the understanding in particular cities, as well as by the interest on the part of clients and countries in this work. 68 Chapter 4 City scans City scans Building on the City Scan: A package of maps, geospatial tools, and data visualizations This chapter sheds light on the following: • The context of the city being studied—the urbanization context and its salient geographical features, principal economic activities, major access routes, and assets and constraints that favor or hinder urban expansion • Population and demographic trends—some of the city’s key population and demographic information, including growth trends, city-level GDP, and economic hotspots139; • City competitiveness and economic growth—assessments of the role of the city as a driver of economic growth and employment through growth trends, city-level GDP, and economic hotspots; • Built form—the city’s state of built-up area and infrastructure by analysis of its expansion over time, as well as the land cover, built-up density, intersection density, and street network layout; • Climate conditions—climate change impacts and mitigation through photovoltaic power potential, air quality, surface temperature, and urban heat island effects; • Risk identification—overlaying various risk data, including urban flooding, landslides, earthquakes, with the city’s built form and infra- structure assets; • Regional climate projections—the physical processes and interactions driving climate change, and the long-term changes in extreme events. 139 These available data include Pristina, Sarajevo, and Tirana only. 70 RESHAPING CITIES CITY SCAN 1 Tirana A compact city suffering from flood, and heat wave risks, and high seismicity Tirana has the potential to be a larger engine of growth, and it continues to promote compact development to meet this objective. Compared to a bench- mark group of regional cities, Tirana’s 2021 population density of 5,840 persons per km2 is the highest, with the population concentrated along the ring road and transversal roads (refer to figure 4.1b). The city has grown fourfold in the past 30 years; the built-up area has expanded around the urban area, including sig- nificant growth in the northwestern agricultural zones (refer to figure 4.1a). Economic activity in Tirana is concentrated in the city’s urban core and along two main roads to the airport and the coast. An increase in economic activity, indicated by a higher rate of increase in the radiance of night-time light emis- sions, appears most prominent in the urban core and in the southern roadway towards the city of Elbasan (refer to figure 4.1c). This displays expansion beyond the municipality’s administrative boundaries, which suggests an increasing burden on the public purse to keep pace with the growing provision of public services. Although it hosts 10.7 percent of Albania’s population, Tirana makes up 16.2 percent of national employment and contributes a full 29.5 percent of the country’s GDP. Tirana’s GDP per capita140 of $5,253 in 2015 was relatively lower141 (compared to $7,025 in Plovdiv metropolitan area; $12,315 in Baku; and $22,943 in Almaty) but growing142 (refer to figure 4.2a and b). 140 Oxford Economics Global Cities. (2021). 141 At middle-income levels (between $2,500 and $20,000), cities are typically production centers striving to increase productivity and take advantage of market opportunities rather than to dramati- cally transform their industrial mix. 142 Oxford Economics Global Cities. (2021). 71 City scans Figure 4.1 Urban extent, population and economic activity a. Urban extent and change b. Population density c. Change in economic activity Sources: a. DLR, 2015, “World Settlement Footprint Evolution - Landsat 5/7 - Global”. b. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. c. NOAA. VIIRS Daily Mosaic. ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_ut_mos.html Oxford Economics Group. 72 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.2 GDP – national and sub-national a. City GDP per capita City’s GDP per Capita Prague $35,069 Almaty $30,221 Bucharest $23,139 Budapest $22,808 Baku $18,488 Sofia $16,111 Ankara $14,165 Kiev $11,518 Tirana $5,016 Chişinău $4,639 Tashkent $3,793 Share b. Cities of national share GDP, employment, of their country’s and population GDP Employment and Population Tirana Tashkent Prague Plovdiv Kiev Chişinău Budapest Bucharest Baku Ankara Almaty 0 25% 50% Source: Oxford Global Cities 2021. The city lags in terms of access to sustainable and quality infrastructure and amenities. In peripheral zones and in neighboring Kamza Municipality, northwest of Tirana, access to basic schools and hospitals is deficient; journeys to schools further than 2.4 km and journeys to hospitals further than 3 km along the city’s road network (refer to figures 4.3a and b). Interruptions in the water supply are common in areas of new urban settlements not only in the periphery, such as the village of Kashar, but also in Tirana. Heavily dependent on the Ishem catchment 73 City scans and its aquifer, Tirana continues to struggle with high levels of water pollution with parameters exceeding European Union’s legal limits,143 caused by industrial dumping. Untreated sewage continues to be discharged into water bodies. Despite considerable improvements in the municipal solid waste collection system of the city, the sorting and recycling rates remain low. These rates matter because solid waste accounts for 34 percent of methane emissions in Albania. In 2021, Tirana’s population distribution by age skewed higher than the average of the 40–44 (1.1 percent), 45–49 (1.7 percent), 65–60 (1.4 percent), 70–74 (1.6 percent), and 75+ age groups (1.7 percent). Given the high proportion of upper-middle-age and elderly populations, there is a clear need to improve access to social services. Figure 4.3 Access to amenities in Tirana a. Distance to schools b. Hospitals in meters Sources: a. OpenstreetMap (2021). b. OpenStreetMap (2021). 143 Baumann, Lulzim. (2019). “Stopping the Pollution of Ishmi River Basin in Albania.” Feasibility Study. Technical University of Berlin. 74 RESHAPING CITIES Challenges related to urban heat island effects are likely to worsen. High surface temperatures, which can be found primarily in the central built-up areas of the city, are increasingly becoming an issue in the periphery (refer to figure 4.4c). Lower temperatures appear alongside water bodies (such as Lana River and Treat Lake) and green areas near Farka Lake (refer to figure 4.4b). The city may also heat up substantially in coming decades—the projected change in heat magnitude144 sixth highest and fifth highest, respectively, (1990–2040), compared to regional benchmarks. Heat waves impact can result in higher energy consumption and consequently higher emissions of greenhouse gases, as well as forest fires, wilted crops, reduced photosynthesis flux, droughts, and air quality.145 Beyond Tirana‘s geographical context, urban design and urban growth are key players in the mutual intensification of air pollution. The concentration of PM2.5 is more than 20 μg/m3 in the urban core and 10–20 μg/m3 in the suburban periphery, compared to a WHO threshold of 10 (refer to figure 4.4a). 144 Measured by Heat Wave Magnitude Index daily (HWMId). 145 Ulpiani G. (2021). “On the Linkage between Urban Heat Island and Urban Pollution Island: Three- decade literature review towards a conceptual framework.” The Science of the Total Environment 751: 141727. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.141727. 75 City scans Figure 4.4 Air Pollution, green spaces, and land surface temperature a. Air pollution PM2.5 b. Urban green spaces c. Land surface temperature Sources: a. USGS Landsat 8 Level 2, Collection 2, Tier 1, https://www.usgs.gov/. b. European Space Agency. 2020. “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index”. Sentinel-2. c. Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with GWR, v1 (1998-2016), http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu: PM2.5 grids are derived using annual data from 1998– 2016 represent near-surface concentrations. 76 RESHAPING CITIES Tirana’s stock of buildings lacks resilience to climate and other shocks. This lack is particularly challenging in the housing sector that is often in poor state and is dominated by private development and informality. Two-thirds of urban buildings were informal in 2004; 350,000 buildings were self-constructed since 1990, and there are very few social housing developments. Inadequate and poorly constructed housing in peripheral neighborhoods and the city’s historic building stock have the potential for energy improvements and energy savings. At the same time, Tirana’s earthquake hazard is strong, with a peak ground accelera- tion of 0.35-0.55, with potential for moderate to heavy damage146 and earthquake building exposure is higher than surroundings (refer to figure 4.5a and b). The poorly developed asset management system also prevents the effective manage- ment of public assets in light of natural hazards and disasters. However, there are a few opportunities because support programs have started to enable decentral- ized investments to increase the energy efficiency of the city’s building supply, and the city has incentivized PV adoption through subsidies. The highest PV potential is in Tirana’s western zones. If programs are designed to support buildings sus- tainability and resilience at the same time, there is an opportunity to improve the withstanding ability of infrastructure in the future (refer to figure 4.6a and b). 146 Average annual loss (AAL) from earthquakes normalized by average country construction costs per square meter is estimated at $10,000–$25,000; 4 significant earthquake events occurred from 1940–2020, with the largest in November 2019. 77 City scans Figure 4.5 Regional climate projections a. Projected change in heat magnitude b. Potential heat impacts (change in average HWMId147 and WBGT148 1990-2040) 147 The heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId) merges the duration (days) and the intensity (daily maximum temperature) of prolonged extreme temperature events into a single numerical index. High magnitude may have implications for human health, impairing worker productivity, especially in agriculture and construction sectors, which may lead to financial losses. 148 Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) represents the cooling capacity of the human body through perspiration. This indicator calculates the weighted mean of a function of temperature, relative humidity, and pressure. WBGT is often used to determine how heat affects people during strenuous activities, such as military exercises, sports, or outdoor work. When WBGT measures reach 30°C, conditions are unhealthy for many people and deaths rise among those vulnerable to heat. 78 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.5 Regional climate projections - continued c. Increase in average HWMId, 1990–2040 d. Increase in average WGBT, 1990–2040 Source: Center for International Climate Research, ClimINVEST, https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/climin- vest. The 1990 value was obtained as the average value for historical model runs from 1981–2000, whereas the 2040 projection is the average of projections for 2031–50. 79 City scans Figure 4.6 Seismic hazards, earthquake building exposure and landslide susceptibility in Tirana149 a. Earthquake building exposure b. Seismic Hazard c. Landslide susceptibility Sources: a. Pagani, Garcia-Pelaez, Gee, et al. (2018). b. Pagani, Garcia-Pelaez, Gee, et al. (2018). c. NASA. “Landslide Susceptibility Map”. Landslides @ NASA. html#susceptibility. 149 M. Pagani, J. Garcia-Pelaez, R. Gee, K. Johnson, V. Poggi, R. Styron, G. Weatherill, M. Simionato, D. Viganò, L. Danciu, D. Monelli. (2018). Global Earthquake Model (GEM) Seismic Hazard Map (version 2018.1, December). 80 RESHAPING CITIES People and capital assets in Tirana are highly exposed to flood risk. Tirana has experienced 6 large flood events since 1985, as defined in the Dartmouth Flood Observatory’s Global Active Archive, as the result of snow melt and heavy rains. In Tirana, 26 percent of schools, 34 percent of major roads, 14 percent of hospitals, 18 percent of police stations, and 28 percent of the densest settlement areas150 are in a river and rainwater flood risk zone with a minimum depth of 15 cm (refer to figure 4.7a) The built-up area in Tirana exposed to river and rainwater flooding grew at an average annual rate of 4.41 percent from 1985–2015, reaching 24.67 km2 collectively exposed by 2015, and accounting for 33.7 percent of the city’s built-up area (refer to figure 4.7b). Flood risk is likely to be exacerbated in the future if no action is taken, because yearly precipitation and peaks of rain are projected to increase in the decades to come. Given its primarily low sloping area, Tirana’s susceptibility to landslides is low for the most part (refer to figure 4.6c). Some hilly zones scattered across the city, particularly at the built-up edges of the urban core, have medium to high susceptibility to landslides; this may be exacer- bated due to deforestation on the edges of the city. Figure 4.7 Exposure to combined rainwater and riverflooding in Tirana a. Infrastructure assets 150 Between 65 and 128 persons per m2. 81 City scans Figure 4.7 Exposure to combined rainwater and riverflooding in Tirana - continued b. Urban built-up area c. Population Sources: a. SSBN 3 arc second (90 m) Global Hazard Data (World Bank License), OSM data may not include all facilities; The Fathom-GlobalV2 Flood Hazard dataset is a gridded product at 3 arc-second resolution (approximately 90 m but varies slightly with latitude) that shows the maximum expected water depth in meters at 10 different return periods (between 1-in-5 and 1-in-1000 years). This model is not recom- mended to serve as the sole source of flood hazard information for site-specific analysis; although the data can provide a useful overview of the likely hazard in a particular region, more detailed local data should be gathered before detailed planning or operational decisions are made. b. DLR. 2015. “World Settlement Footprint Evolution—Landsat-5/7—Global”. Earth Observation Center Geoservice. c. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. 82 RESHAPING CITIES CITY SCAN 2 Sarajevo A shrinking city vulnerable to high seismicity, heatwaves, and flooding While Sarajevo’s morphological growth is still proceeding, the trend of urban decline is emerging. Not only has Sarajevo’s population declined steadily over the past decade, at a rate of -0.02, but the city’s age distribution also skews higher than average for age groups over 50, suggesting the need for social devel- opment and an age-inclusive approach to resilience.151 At 2,794 persons per km2, Sarajevo’s population density is the second lowest, compared to a benchmark group of regional cities.152 The population is concentrated in the city’s historic urban core on the banks of the Miljacka River. Despite its relatively low popu- lation density, the city’s sprawl has doubled over the past 30 years, with signif- icant growth toward the northwest (refer to figure 4.8a and b). Compared to a benchmark group of regional cities, Sarajevo’s GDP per capita was the sixth highest at $11,312.153 At 31 percent, the public services sector comprises the largest share of Sarajevo’s gross value added to the economy; consumer services at 30 percent has the next highest share. Sarajevo hosts 12 percent of the popula- tion of BiH; it makes up 14 percent of national employment while contributing a full 54.6 percent of the country’s GDP (refer to figure 4.9a).154 The national share of informal employment is high at 30 percent and is a major contributing factor to the city’s significantly higher contribution to the GDP (refer to figure 4.9b). Sarajevo, economic activity, indicated by a higher average radiance of night- time lights, appears to be concentrated in the city’s transversal core and in the southern neighborhoods. However, the greatest increases in economic activity appear in pockets within the urban core, as well the towns of Ilijaš and Vogošća in the extreme north, and the town of Ilidža in the west, following the city’s trend of urban expansion beyond Sarajevo’s core boundaries (refer to figure 4.8c). 151 Oxford Economics Global Cities. (2021). 152 Cities included in the benchmark comparisons for Sarajevo are Almaty, Ankara, Bucharest, Budapest, Chisinau, Kiev, Plovdiv, Prague, Tashkent, and Tirana. 153 Cities with GDP per capita between $5,000 and $20,000, like Sarajevo, are typically production centers that make the largest gains in value by becoming more sophisticated and productive at what they are already doing. 154 In 2021, Sarajevo’s projected GDP was almost $4.5 billion. 83 City scans Figure 4.8 Urban extent, population and economic activity a. Urban extent and change b. Population density c. Change in economic activity Sources: a. DLR, 2015, “World Settlement Footprint Evolution - Landsat 5/7 - Global”. b. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. c. NOAA. VIIRS Daily Mosaic. ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_ut_mos.html Oxford Economics Group. 84 RESHAPING CITIES As per the request from the Prime Minister Office from the Canton of Sarajevo, the city’s growing landslide challenge associated with its rapid development of the hills has been reviewed through interviews of the government staff from the Institutes for Development Planning and for Construction from the Canton and other stakeholders. The review along with a dialogue with Hiroshima, a city with a similar historical context and urban hill’s development challenge, identified concrete next steps toward the Canton’s resilient development of the urban hills. Annex 1 summarizes the review findings and recommendations. Figure 4.9 GDP – national and sub-national a. GDP City’s GDP percapita per Capita for Sarajevo and regional benchmark cities Prague - Metro $30,685 Bucharest - Metro $25,879 Almaty $23,943 Budapest - Metro $22,149 Ankara - Metro $15,514 Sarajevo $11,312 Kiev $8,598 Plovdiv - Metro $7,025 Tashkent $6,514 Tirana $5,253 Chişinău $5,177 City share b. Cities national of their share of GDP, country’s employment, GDP Employmentand and population Population Chişinău Tirana Plovidv Budapest Tashkent Ankara Prague Bucharest Almaty Kiev Sarajevo 0 20% 40% 60% Source: Oxford Economics Global Cities (2021). 85 City scans As climate risks intensifies, housing stability will be increasingly under threat. Sarajevo suffers from deteriorating housing stock and deficient access to public amenities. In Sarajevo, neighborhoods in the northwest have limited access to health care services, with journeys to hospitals or clinics more than 2,300 metres along the city’s road network (refer to figure 4.10a). There is a lesser but substantial proportion of heterogeneous street bearings in the city, indicat- ing a combination of planned and unplanned organic forms of historical urban development, despite its well-organized street network in the city’s urban core (refer to figure 4.10b). More than one-half of Sarajevo’s housing stock consists of prefabricated multi-story apartment buildings that are generally low quality, poorly insulated, and poorly maintained. The low-quality and sometimes unlive- able housing stock yield high vacancy rates, which fuels the construction of illegal housing, as well as the strong demand for affordable housing. New development requires a revamped design framework: the current construction standards and practices for residential buildings lag European and international standards for energy efficiency. Figure 4.10 Access to amenities and road network a. Access to amenities in Sarajevo b. Road network Source: OpenStreetMap (2021). 86 RESHAPING CITIES Air pollution in Sarajevo is at least moderately high throughout the year but trends indicate that it is worsening, with high and increasing concentra- tions of pollutants in the winter.155 In Sarajevo, air pollution is concentrated in the urban core, at 15-20 μg/m3, above the WHO threshold of 10 μg/m3. (refer to figure 4.11c). Higher land surface temperatures (above 50°C) are found primarily in the urban core, and cooler surfaces appear in the periphery zones but are atyp- ically absent in the urban surrounds of the Bosnia, Miljacka, and Zeljeznica rivers (refer to figure 4.11b). Most green spaces are not easily accessible from the city; there are more urban green spaces Sarajevo’s Novi Grad municipality, compared to other neighborhoods (refer figure 4.9c). Fewer green spaces appear in more recently built neighborhoods, signaling the need for a green urban design frame- work to guide new development. Sarajevo is at risk of heat waves and higher than normal summer temperatures in the future. Compared to a group of benchmark cities, Sarajevo’s projected change in heat magnitude (HWMId156) from 1990 to 2040, is the fifth highest, at 4.6, and the city’s projected increase in Wet Bulb Temperature157 (WBGT), from 1990 to 2040 is 1.4°C (refer to figure 4.11a). 155 World Bank. (2019). ‘Western Balkans Regional AQM: Bosnia and Herzegovina.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 156 The heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId) merges the duration (days) and the intensity (daily maximum temperature) of prolonged extreme temperature events into a single numerical index. High magnitude may have implications for human health, impairing worker productivity, especially in agriculture and construction sectors, which may lead to financial losses. 157 Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) represents the cooling capacity of the human body through perspiration. This indicator calculates the weighted mean of a function of temperature, relative humidity and pressure. WBGT is often used to determine how heat affects people during strenuous activities such as military exercises, sports or outdoor work. When WBGT measures reach 30°C, con- ditions are unhealthy for many people and deaths rise among those vulnerable to heat. 87 City scans Figure 4.11 Urban heat, green space, and air pollution a. Land surface temperature b. Urban green space c. Air pollution Sources: a. USGS Landsat 8 Level 2, Collection 2, Tier 1, https://www.usgs.gov/. b. European Space Agency. 2020. “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index”. Sentinel-2. c. Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with GWR, v1 (1998–2016), http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu: PM2.5 grids are derived using annual data from 1998– 2016 represent near-surface concentrations. 88 RESHAPING CITIES The lowland urban core of Sarajevo is poorly protected from flooding. In Sarajevo, 47 percent of schools, 40 percent of hospitals, 50 percent of police stations, 46 percent of fire stations, 54 percent of major roads, and 42.5 percent of the densest settlement areas158 are located in a river and rainwater flood risk zone with a minimum depth of 15 cm (refer to figure 4.12a). River flooding is most prominent along the Bosnia, Miljacka, and Zeljeznica rivers. The built-up area of Sarajevo exposed to river and rainwater flooding grew at an average annual rate of 2.31 percent from 16.36 km2 in 1985 to 32.4 km2 in 2015, reaching 22.9 percent of the city’s built-up area (refer to figures 4.12b and c).Intense rainfall in urban areas can generate both pluvial flooding due to the limited capacity of drainage systems, as well as fluvial flooding caused by deluges from river channels. The concurrence of pluvial and fluvial flooding often aggravates the damage potential they individually produce. Given the prevalence of hilly areas all around Sarajevo, its susceptibility to landslides is medium to high. The highly sloping zones in the periphery of the city have very high risks of landslides (refer to figure 4.12d). Figure 4.12 Exposure to combined rainwater and river flooding and landslide susceptibility a. Infrastructure assets b. Urban built-up area 158 Between 65 and 128 persons per m2. 89 City scans Figure 4.12 Exposure to combined rainwater and river flooding and landslide susceptibility - continued c. Population exposed to combined river and rainwater d. Landslide susceptibility Sources: a. SSBN 3 arc second (90 m) Global Hazard Data (World Bank License), OSM data may not include all facilities; The Fathom-GlobalV2 Flood Hazard dataset is a gridded product at 3 arc-second resolution (approximately 90 m but varies slightly with latitude) that shows the maximum expected water depth in meters at 10 different return periods (between 1-in-5 and 1-in-1000 years). This model is not recom- mended to serve as the sole source of flood hazard information for site-specific analysis; although the data can provide a useful overview of the likely hazard in a particular region, more detailed local data should be gathered before detailed planning or operational decisions are made. b. DLR. 2015. “World Settlement Footprint Evolution—Landsat-5/7—Global”. Earth Observation Center Geoservice. c. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. d. NASA. “Landslide Susceptibility Map”. Landslides @ NASA. html#susceptibility. 90 RESHAPING CITIES CITY SCAN 3 Novi Sad A postindustrial river city facing major flood risks Novi Sad is characterized by post-socialist urban regeneration. The city’s urban sprawl almost doubled from 1985 to 2015, with significant growth toward its western and northern edges, at a steady average annual growth rate of 1.8 percent.159 Novi Sad’s population density is particularly low160 at 519 persons per km2, and is mostly concentrated161 within its urban core and some suburban settlements: Futog and Veternik in the east, the neighborhood of Klisa in the north, and in the two towns on the southern shore of the Danube: Sremska Kamenica and Petrovaradin (refer to figure 4.13 and b). Economic activity in Novi Sad is concentrated appears to be concentrated in the city’s urban core, and along the two main streets leading west and north of the city: State Road 12 and State Road 102. Following trends of the city’s urban expansion, the most signifi- cant increases in economic activity appear in pockets all around the city’s urban core, in the industrial zones in the east, and around Veternik in the west (refer to figure 4.13c). 159 Oxford Economics Global Cities 2021. 160 Compared to a benchmark group of regional cities, Novi Sad’s 2021 population density of 358 persons per km2 is the second lowest. Cities included in the benchmark are Almaty, Ankara, Bucharest, Budapest, Chisinau, Kiev, Plovdiv, Prague, Tashkent, and Tirana. 161 The highest population density in Novi Sad is 30–35 persons per 100 m2. 91 City scans Figure 4.13 Urban extent, population and economic activity a. Urban built-up area b. Population density c. Change in economic activity Sources: a. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. Earthdata NASA Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite, VIIRS. b. DLR, 2015, “World Settlement Footprint Evolution - Landsat 5/7 - Global”. c. NOAA. VIIRS Daily Mosaic. ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_ut_mos.html Oxford Economics Group”. 92 RESHAPING CITIES Novi Sad’s built form is shaped by a relatively disordered collective street ori- entation, indicating an overall more unplanned form of urban development. By 2002, 97.7 percent of Novi Sad’s housing stock was privatized; the absence of social housing led to a housing crisis in the 1990s, giving rise to illegal housing construction and causing uncontrollable sprawl.162 The situation was exacer- bated by the absence of housing development policies, coordinated management of land, and infrastructure. Following patterns of population density, Novi Sad’s built-up density and intersection density163 (measured by higher levels of imper- viousness164), is highest in the urban core north of the Danube River, especially in Industrial Zone I and II (refer to figure 4.14a and b). In the north and south peripheral zones, access to schools is limited, with some areas located further than a 2,400-meter journey along the city’s street network (refer to figure 4.14c). Access to clinics and hospitals is significantly sparse in much of the city’s northern zones and some areas in the south; many areas are located further than a 3,000-meter journey along the city’s network to a clinic or a hospital (refer to figure 4.14d). Figure 4.14 Density, schools and hospitals a. Built-up density 162 Nedučin, D., M. Krklješ, and S. K. Perović. (2021). “Demolition-Based Urban Regeneration from a Post- Socialist Perspective: Case Study of a Neighborhood in Novi Sad, Serbia.” Sustainability 13 (18): 10430. https://doi.org/10.3390/su131810430. 163 Separate from population density, built-up density can indicate where more interactivity among people is likely to take place. In general, the benefits of built-up density can include greater economic activity, higher energy efficiency, and more room for nearby open spaces. 164 Impervious surfaces are typically paved structures, such as roads, parking lots, and airports, that are covered by water-resistant material like asphalt, concrete, or rooftops. 93 City scans Figure 4.14 Density, schools and hospitals - continued b. Intersection density c. Access to schools d. Access to hospitals Sources: a. DLR. 2015. “World Settlement Footprint Evolution—Landsat-5/7—Global”. Earth Observation Center Geoservice. b. OpenStreetMap (2021). c. OpenStreetMap (2021). d. OpenStreetMap (2021). 94 RESHAPING CITIES Air pollution contributes significantly to the overall burden of disease and premature death in Serbia, which has higher estimates of premature death due to air pollution than most countries in the European Union. The main sources of outdoor air pollution in Serbia include the energy sector (thermal power plants, district heating plants, and individual household heating), the transport sector (older vehicle fleets), waste dump sites and industrial activities (oil refin- eries, the chemical industry, mining and metal processing, and the construction industry165). In 2017, Novi Sad’s modal split comprised cars (33 percent), public transport (15 percent), cycling (9 percent), and walking (43 percent).166 The increasing urban development in Novi Sad’s city center suffered a lack of infrastructure improvements, generating congestion and exacerbating air and noise pollution. The concentration of PM2.5 in the city center is hazardous to public health,167 at over 30 μg/m3 and 15–20 at 15–20 μg/m3 throughout the rest of the city refer to figure 4.15b). Urban heat islands in Novi Sad are exacerbated by high levels of air pollution, among factors of urban form such as impervious- ness land cover and a lack of green spaces (refer to figure 4.15a). A network of green spaces in Novi Sad can be found along the Danube River. However, green spaces are deficient in the city’s urban core, and are more prominent in the city’s suburban periphery. Some deforestation can be found along the Danube River, and in the city’s northeast zones (refer to figure 4.15d). Higher surface temperatures168 above 51°C can be found primarily in the central built-up areas and in city’s indus- trial zones in the north, with a general absence of cooler surfaces temperatures in the city’s built-up areas. Novi Sad’s faces higher temperatures in the future; with a change in heat magnitude, from 1.6 in 1990 to a projection of 2.92 in 2040. Compared to a group of regional benchmark cities, Novi Sad’s average WBGT was the seventh highest in 1990 at 21.1 °C and the sixth highest at 21.9 °C in 2020. 165 World Health Organization. (2019). “Health Impact of Ambient Air Pollution in Serbia: A Call to Action.” Report, WHO, Copenhagen. 166 Mirović, Valentina, Vuk Bogdanović, Jelena Mitrović Simić, NNemanja Garunović, and Milica Milicic. (2020). “Novi Sad mobility: Historical Background and Shifting Planning Paradigms. “Tehnika 75: 485–89. 10.5937/tehnika2004485M. 167 The concentration of particulate matter (PM) is a key indicator of air quality since it is the most common air pollutant affecting short and long-term health. This map displays the average annual concentration (μg per m3) of ground-level fine particulate matter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller (PM2.5). PM2.5 particles are of greater concern than PM10 particles because their small size allows them to travel deeper into the cardiopulmonary system. According to the WHO, PM2.5 concentrations should not exceed between 10 μg/m3. 168 Surface temperature refers to the temperature of the ground, as one would feel on one’s feet rather than on one’s face. 95 City scans Figure 4.15 Urban heat, air pollution, green spaces and deforestation a. Land surface temperature b. Air pollution 96 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.15 Urban heat, air pollution, green spaces and deforestation - continued c. Urban green spaces d. Deforestation Sources: a. USGS Landsat 8 Level 2, Collection 2, Tier 1, https://www.usgs.gov/. b. Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with GWR, v1 (1998-2016), http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu: PM2.5 Grids are derived using annual data from 1998- 2016 represent near-surface concentrations. c. European Space Agency. 2020. “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index”. Sentinel-2. Novi Sad’s high risk of flooding threatens access to critical public infrastruc- ture. Novi Sad has experienced eight large flood events since 1985 as defined in the Dartmouth Flood Observatory’s Global Active Archive, as the result of snowmelt and heavy rains. The built-up area of Novi Sad exposed to river and rainwater flooding grew at an average annual rate of 1.82 percent from 22.1 km2 in 1985 to 38 km2 in 2015, reaching 57.5 percent of the city’s built-up area. In Novi Sad, 67 percent of the densest settlement areas, 47 percent of schools, 44 percent of hospitals, 25 percent of police stations, 50 percent of fire stations, and 82 percent of major roads are located in a river and rainwater flood risk zone 97 City scans with a minimum depth of 15 cm (refer to figures 4.16a, b, and c). The most critical road segments in the city are found along the Oslobođenja Boulevard, Slobode Bridge and State Road 21. Most of Novi Sad’s urban built up area lies between 65–130 meters in elevation. The elevation rises higher than 220 meters towards Fruška Gora Mountain in the south. Given its primarily low sloping area, Novi Sad’s susceptibility to landslides is very slow (refer to figure 4.16 d). Some hilly zones in the south towards the Fruška Gora Mountain have medium to high sus- ceptibility to landslides. Compared to a benchmark group of regional cities, Novi Sad has the seventh highest projected change in yearly precipitation169 at 60 mm, and the projected change in Novi Sad’s five-day maximum rainfall from 1990 to 2040, is eighth highest, at 39.5 mm. Figure 4.16 Exposure to combined rainwater and river flooding and landslide susceptibility a. Infrastructure assets b. Urban built-up area 169 Total precipitation (rainfall + snowfall) per year in mm. Shows what areas receive the most or least rain but does not show in what season and how intensely precipitation is accumulated over the year, for example, light rain every day or intense rainfall in a few weeks per year. This information can generally inform land use planning and flood management but must be put into the local context. General trends toward increased rainfall suggest ideal conditions for reservoirs and hydropower dams, especially in regions dependent on glacier melt. 98 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.16 Exposure to combined rainwater and river flooding and landslide susceptibility - continued c. Population exposed to combined river and rainwater flooding d. Landslide susceptibility Sources: a. SSBN 3 arc second (90 m) Global Hazard Data (World Bank License), OSM data may not include all facilities; The Fathom-GlobalV2 Flood Hazard dataset is a gridded product at 3 arc-second resolution (approximately 90 m but varies slightly with latitude) that shows the maximum expected water depth in meters at 10 different return periods (between 1-in-5 and 1-in-1000 years). This model is not recom- mended to serve as the sole source of flood hazard information for site-specific analysis; while the data can provide a useful overview of the likely hazard in a particular region, more detailed local data should be gathered before detailed planning or operational decisions are made. b. World Settlement Footprint Landsat 5/7”. c. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. d. NASA. “Landslide Susceptibility Map”. Landslides @ NASA. html#susceptibility. 99 City scans Figure 4.17 Regional climate projections a. Change in maximum daily precipitation b. Change in yearly precipitation 100 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.17 Regional climate projections - continued c. Projected change in 20-year return level (daily) 1990–2040 d. Projected change yearly precipitation (mm) 1990–2040 Source: Center for International Climate Research, ClimINVEST, https://www.cicero.oslo.no/en/climin- vest. The 1990 value was obtained as the average value for historical model runs from 1981–2000, whereas the 2040 projection is the average of projections for 2031–50. 101 City scans CITY SCAN 4 Niš An economic engine facing flood and heat risk Niš is Serbia’s third largest city, with a population of 254,723 in 2021170 that has steadily declined in recent years. The city’s population is concentrated in its urban core and stretches toward the east and west edges of the city (refer to figure 4.18a). Compared to a benchmark group of regional cities,171 Niš’s popu- lation density is the second lowest, at 311 persons per km2. Economic activity in Niš is concentrated in the city’s urban core, with some economic activity along the main motorways: 12 February Boulevard and European Route E771 in the north, following patterns of the city’s more recent urban expansion (refer to figure 4.16). The greatest increase in economic activity since 2014 appears in the western zones, and a small hotspot along European Route E771 in the east (refer to figure 4.18c). Between 1985 and 2015, Niš’s built-up area expanded steadily at an annual average rate of 1.83 percent around the historic urban core, with significant growth in the west and a small zone in the east. Most of Niš’s predominant class of landcover comprises cropland, tree cover and grassland, and urban built-up area covers one-third of the city’s land area. The city’s collective street orientations show a relatively disordered pattern, indicating a more organic and unplanned form of urban development. The road intersection density in Niš is highest in the urban core, in the Durlan, Marger and DuvaNište neighborhoods. Although most of Niš’s built-up area is located within a 2,400-meter journey to a school along the city’s road network, clinics and hospitals remain inaccessible to most of the city’s western neighborhoods and a few areas in the east (refer to figure 4.19c). 170 Republic of Serbia Annual Statistical Yearbook 2021. 171 Cities included in the benchmark comparisons for Niš are Almaty, Ankara, Baku, Bucharest, Budapest, Chisinau, Kiev, Plovdiv, Prague, and Tashkent. 102 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.18 Urban extent, population density and change in economic activity a. Urban built-up areas b. Population density c. Change in economic activity Sources: a. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. b. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. c. Earthdata NASA (Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite–VIIRS). 103 City scans Urban heat coupled with severe air pollution in Niš will exacerbate public health. Throughout Niš, air quality is a grave public health concern. The concen- tration of PM2.5172 is over 30 μg/m3 in the urban core, and between 20-30 μg/m3 in the suburban periphery, levels that far exceed the WHO threshold of 10 μg/m3 (refer to figure 4.19a). High surface temperatures up to 49°C can be found pri- marily in the city’s central built-up areas, particularly in the industrial zones in the west and north. Cooler surface temperatures are associated with the Nišava River, and in the southern neighborhoods (refer to figure 4.17b). Although most of Niš’s built-up area is located within a 2,400-meter journey to a school along the city’s road network, clinics and hospitals remain inaccessible to most of the city’s western neighborhoods and a few areas in the east (refer to figure 4.19c). A lack of green spaces in the city further contribute to the issue of urban heat and air pollu- tion. Niš’s 2020 heatwave magnitude index in 1990 was 1.3 and was measured at 2.6 in 2020. Compared to a group of benchmark cities, Niš’s projected change in heat magnitude (HWMId173) from 1990 to 2040 is the ninth-highest at 3.5, and the projected increase in Wet Bulb Globe Temperature174 (WBGT) from 1990 to 2040 is the eighth-highest, at 1.4°C. 172 The concentration of particulate matter (PM) is a key indicator of air quality since it is the most common air pollutant affecting short- and long-term health. This map displays the average annual concentration (μg per m3) of ground-level fine particulate matter of 2.5 micrometers or smaller (PM2.5). PM2.5 particles are of greater concern than PM10 particles because their small size allows them to travel deeper into the cardiopulmonary system. 173 The heat wave magnitude index daily (HWMId) merges the duration (days) and the intensity (daily maximum temperature) of prolonged extreme temperature events into a single numerical index. High magnitude may have implications for human health, impairing worker productivity (especially in agriculture and construction sectors) which may lead to financial losses. 174 Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) represents the cooling capacity of the human body through perspiration. This indicator calculates the weighted mean of a function of temperature, relative humidity and pressure. WBGT is often used to determine how heat affects people during strenuous activities such as military exercises, sports or outdoor work. When WBGT measures reach 30°C, con- ditions are unhealthy for many people and deaths rise among those vulnerable to heat. 104 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.19 Air pollution, urban heat, and access to health facilities a. Air pollution b. Land surface temperature c. Access to health facilities Sources: a. USGS Landsat 8 Level 2, Collection 2, Tier 1, https://www.usgs.gov/. b. Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with GWR, v1 (1998–2016), http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu: PM2.5 grids are derived using annual data from 1998- 2016 represent near-surface concentrations. c. OpenStreetMap (2021). 105 City scans Niš’s public amenities and infrastructure are at risk of being exposed to flooding; 52 percent of schools, 82 percent of hospitals, 80 percent of police stations, 100 percent of fire stations, and 24 percent of major roads are located in a river and rainwater flood risk zone with a minimum depth of 15 cm (refer to figure 4.20a). The built-up area of Niš exposed to river and rainwater flooding grew at an average annual rate of 1.88 percent from 23.24 km2 in 1985 to 40.35 km2 in 2015, reaching 45.3 percent of the city’s built-up area (refer to figure 4.20b). In Niš, 49.2 percent of the densest settlement areas175 are exposed to both river and rainwater flooding (figure 4.20c). Compared to a group of benchmark cities, the projected change in Niš’s five-day maximum rainfall from 1990 to 2040, is ninth highest at 38.3 mm and the seventh-highest projected change in yearly precipita- tion at 55 mm. In Niš, the most critical road segment is found along the Dr. Zorana indica Boulevard and affects vital connections to Brzi Brod east of the historic center (refer to figure 4.21a) Given its primarily low sloping area, Niš’ susceptibil- ity to landslides is low (refer to figure 4.20). Hilly zones in the south towards the Seličevica mountains have medium to high susceptibility to landslides (refer to figure 4.21b). While no earthquakes in Niš appear in the US National Centers for Environmental Information’s Significant Earthquake Database, the city’s earth- quake hazard is moderate to strong, with a Peak Ground Acceleration of 0.08-0.13, with potential for very light to light damage.176 175 between 20 and 31 persons per 100 m2. 176 Mirović, Valentina, Vuk Bogdanović, Mitrović Simić, Jelena & Garunović, Nemanja & Milicic, Milica. (2020). “Novi Sad Mobility: Historical Background and Shifting Planning Paradigms.” Tehnika 75: 485–89. 10.5937/tehnika2004485M. 106 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.20 Exposure to combined rainwater and river flooding a. Infrastructure assets b. Urban built-up area c. Population exposed to combined river and rainwater flooding Sources: a. SSBN 3 arc second (90 m) Global Hazard Data (World Bank License), OSM data may not include all facilities; The Fathom-GlobalV2 Flood Hazard dataset is a gridded product at 3 arc-second resolution (approximately 90 m but varies slightly with latitude) that shows the maximum expected water depth in meters at 10 different return periods (between 1-in-5 and 1-in-1000 years). This model is not recom- mended to serve as the sole source of flood hazard information for site-specific analysis; while the data can provide a useful overview of the likely hazard in a particular region, more detailed local data should be gathered before detailed planning or operational decisions are made. b. World Settlement Footprint Landsat 5/7”. c. WorldPop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. 107 City scans Figure 4.21 Road network criticality and landslides a. Road network criticality b. Landslide susceptibility Sources: a. OpenStreetMap (2021). b. NASA. “Landslide Susceptibility Map”. Landslides @ NASA. html#susceptibility. 108 RESHAPING CITIES CITY SCAN 5 Pristina A growing city faced with severe air pollution, increasing urban heat, and water shortages Pristina has the Western Balkans’s highest population density. Compared to a regional group of benchmark cities177 with similar population sizes, Pristina’s 2015 population density of 6,756/km2 is the highest. In 2011, Pristina’s population distribution by age skewed much younger than the regional benchmark average cities, with a greater population share in the 0-39 age groups and a lower share from 40-80+. In fact, Pristina has the youngest population of any capital cities in Europe. Pristina’s population density is concentrated in its central city area, as well as in parts along the western and southern edges (refer to figure 4.22a). A relatively small city, Pristina’s population density is relatively evenly distributed throughout. Areas in Pristina’s south-central zone increased their night-time light intensity from 2013–19 the most, indicating higher increases in economic activity there. Other areas, especially along the west-central zone, saw a decrease or small increase in night-time light emissions refer to figure 4.22b). Despite being the capital city, Pristina has the highest unemployment rate at 24.3 percent, compared to other regions in Kosovo. In 2017, all regions except for Pristina had higher urban unemployment rates compared to rural areas. This is primarily driven by unusu- ally high rates of rural unemployment in Pristina, at 25.8%. Over time, Pristina’s built-up area filled in the few remaining spaces in its central urban area, then expanded outward in every direction along major road, especially to the south. The city’s built-up area grew at an average annual rate of 1.9 percent between 1975 and 2014, from 39 km2 to 68 km2. 177 In 2011, Pristina’s population distribution by age skewed much younger than the regional benchmark average cities, with a greater population share in ages 0–39 and a lower share in ages 40–80+. 109 City scans Figure 4.22 Urban extent and change in economic activity a. Urban built-up area b. Change in economic activity Sources: a. Worldpop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. b. NOAA. VIIRS Daily Mosaic. ngdc.noaa.gov/eog/viirs/download_ut_mos.html Oxford Economics Group. 110 RESHAPING CITIES Pristina grapples with severe water shortages. Although the quality of piped drinking water in Pristina is good, the city has a history of water shortages. In 2014, droughts forced residents to adopt daily water rations.178 Two lakes outside the city provide water, but low rainfall, unregulated land use, and increased pollu- tion may reduce the reserves in the future. Wells and groundwater sources outside the city have been contaminated by industrial activity. Pristina’s city center and the industrial area to the west have the highest level of imperviousness and the city’s streets are notably oriented in a relatively north- south direction, owing in part to its location alongside a directionally north-south mountainous range (refer to figure 4.23). Only a small handful of the built-up area in the city’s north is more than 3,200 meters from a school along Pristina’s road network; only a small amount of built-up area, mainly to the west and north at Pristina’s edges, is more than 3,200 meters along the city’s road network away from a hospital. The predominant land cover classes of the Pristina area are cropland (25 percent) and urban area (31 percent). Grassland (23 percent) and tree cover (15 percent) mostly appear to the city’s eastern edge (refer to figure 4.23). Pristina exhibits a relatively high level of green space coverage, although fewer and smaller green spaces are found in the more historical central city area and along newer industrial zones to the southwest. Green spaces are especially abundant to the forested east. Green spaces significantly improve the quality of life of urban residents, providing shade, cool temperatures, better air quality, and recreational activity spaces. The city of Pristina includes little forest cover, which appears mainly on its eastern fringe. Since 2000, Pristina has experienced minimal forest cover loss. Pristina appears well-connected to schools, and most populated areas have at least one. 178 World Bank. (2018). “Kosovo Water Security Outlook.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 111 City scans Figure 4.23 Built-up density and land cover Land cover Sources: a. Map data from DLR, 2015, “World Settlement Footprint Evolution - Landsat 5/7 - Global”. b. ESA WorldCover project 2020 / Contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data (2020) processed by ESA WorldCover consortium’. Air quality in Pristina is a notable concern, falling above recommended global air quality standards throughout the city, at 10–15 μg/m3, and at 15–20 μg/m3 in the city’s western parts (refer to figure 4.24a). Urban heat islands as indicated by surface temperature appear more to the city’s west, especially in the indus- trial zone, and in the densely populated north. Cooler surface temperatures are found in areas to the east, with their forest cover and higher elevation (refer to figure 4.24b). Pockets of cool temperature within the hotter areas are associated with urban green spaces, such as the Pristina City Park (refer to figure 4.24c). Compared to a group of benchmark cities,179 Pristina’s projected change in heat magnitude (HWMId) from 1990–2040 is the third-highest at 5.0, and Pristina’s projected increase in Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT) from 1990–2040 is the eighth-highest at 1.4°C (refer to figure 4.5a and b). 179 Cities included in the benchmark group are the following: Durres, Thessaloniki, Sofia, Skopje, Tirana, Split, Niš, Podgorica, Sarajevo, Belgrade, Novi Sad, Banja Luka, Zagreb, and Ljubljana. 112 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.24 Air pollution, land surface temperature and urban green space a. Air pollution b. Land surface temperature c. Urban green spaces Sources: a. Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with GWR, v1 (1998-2016), http://sedac.ciesin.columbia.edu: PM2.5 grids are derived using annual data from 1998– 2016 represent near-surface concentrations. b. Heat: USGS Landsat 8 Level 2, Collection 2, Tier 1, https://www.usgs.gov/. c. European Space Agency. 2020. “Normalized Difference Vegetation Index”. Sentinel-2. https://scihub. copernicus.eu/dhus/USGS Landsat 8 Level 2, Collection 2, Tier 1, https://www.usgs.gov/. 113 City scans Pristina faces increasing exposure to floods and more intensity in urban heat in the coming decades. Three floods in Pristina appear on the Dartmouth Flood Observatory’s Global Active Archive of Large Flood Events. In December 2010, Pristina, along with other areas of Kosovo, experienced flooding from heavy rain and snow that collectively affected about 850 households. Compared to a regional group of benchmark cities, Pristina’s five-day maximum rainfall in 1990 was sec- ond-highest at 403 mm, and modeled at the highest in 2020 at 440 mm (refer to figure 4.17a and b). In Pristina, the river and rainwater flood risk zones almost entirely overlap; 32 percent of schools, 28 percent of hospitals, 24 percent of major roads, and 11 percent of police stations are located in a river and rainwater flood risk zone. The built-up area in Pristina exposed to river and rainwater flooding grew at an annual rate of 1.8 percent from 1975–2014, reaching 17 sq. km collec- tively exposed; 24 percent of the densest settlement areas are exposed to both river and rainwater flooding (refer to figure 4.25c). Pristina has low landslide sus- ceptibility overall, although its risk rises to the medium-concern level along the city boundary’s eastern edge (refer to figure 4.25d). Figure 4.25 Exposure to combined rainwater and riverflooding and landslide susceptibility a. Infrastructure assets exposed to combined river and rainwater flooding b. Population exposed to combined rainwater and riverflooding 114 RESHAPING CITIES Figure 4.25 Exposure to combined rainwater and riverflooding and landslide susceptibility - continued c. Urban built-up area exposed to combined river and rainwater flooding d. Landslide susceptibility Sources: a. SSBN 3 arc second (90 m) Global Hazard Data (World Bank License), OSM data may not include all facilities; The Fathom-GlobalV2 Flood Hazard dataset is a gridded product at 3 arc-second resolution (approximately 90 m but varies slightly with latitude) that shows the maximum expected water depth in meters at 10 different return periods (between 1-in-5 and 1-in-1000 years). This model is not recom- mended to serve as the sole source of flood hazard information for site-specific analysis; while the data can provide a useful overview of the likely hazard in a particular region, more detailed local data should be gathered before detailed planning or operational decisions are made. b. Worldpop. Bondarenko, et al, Census/projection-disaggregated gridded population datasets, 2020. c. World Settlement Footprint Landsat 5/7”. d. NASA. “Landslide Susceptibility Map”. Landslides @ NASA. html#susceptibility. 115 Annexes City scans 118 Annex #1 Landslide Hazard Situational Assessment Sarajevo Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina Landslide Hazard Situational Assessment Sarajevo Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina Background This annex presents a summary of the landslide situational assessment in Sarajevo Canton and provides recommendations. Sarajevo Canton has an area of 1,276 km2 and a population of about 410,000. It is in a sedimentary catchment at elevations of 500–600 m, with limestone massif reaching 1,000–1,500 m. Hilly and mountainous terrain occupies over 60% of the canton’s area and includes slightly undulating hills crossed by numerous linear, intermittent, and permanent streams that drain surface water from higher parts of the canton. Major urbanization processes after the war (1992–1995) period have resulted in the expansion of urban and suburban sprawl. These include the informal construction of buildings, inappropriate excavations, and embankment activities—many of which have contributed to small and large-scale landslides. Illegal water and sewage lines were also constructed for these buildings, adding instability for these buildings. These poorly constructed sewers and river/stream canals, have also raised pore pressure, leading to soil movement. The construction of housing on these sites has increased the geomorphologi- cal risks, as shown by the significant number of landslides and restoration costs since the early 2000s (Serdarević and Babić, 2019; Skejić et al., 2023). Although they have, for now, rarely resulted in fatalities, landslides are a growing geohazard challenge. The extreme rainfall events in May 2014 confirmed the unsustainable nature of urban areas and new suburban neighborhoods on steep slopes (Martin- Diaz et al., 2015180). Most landslides in the Canton of Sarajevo are shallow or superficial (up to 5.0 m), while deep-seated landslides account for less than 180 Martín-Díaz, J., Nofre, J., Oliva, M., & Palma, P. (2015). Towards an unsustainable urban development in post-war Sarajevo. Area, 47(4), 376-385. 120 RESHAPING CITIES 5% of the total number of landslides (EU recovery program, 2015181). The Institute for Construction of Sarajevo Canton, based on landslide analysis conducted in 2017, has declared 869 registered landslides. The distribution of landslides is uneven by municipalities depending on the terrain and the size of populous areas. The cost of landslide remediation activities between 2000-2015 was estimated at €14.4 million (Canton of Sarajevo, 2014182). According to the EU Development of the Floods and Landslide Risk Assessment for the Housing Sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina (2015), the total financial cost of damage caused by landslides in the housing sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina is about €2.1 million. The figure for the four most affected municipalities in Canton Sarajevo was €1.4 million. According to the Institute for Construction of Canton Sarajevo, total landslide remediation investments in the last five years were approximately €1.55 million. Institutional Setup Most landslide-related projects are carried out at the cantonal and municipal levels in Bosnia and Herzegovina. The Canton of Sarajevo has departments to handle landslides, including developing a landslide database and implementing landslide remediation projects. The Institute for Construction of the Canton of Sarajevo (ZIK) primarily remedi- ates landslides according to previously obtained project documentation and after selecting the most appropriate contractor. The ZIK supervises the quality of the remediation works during the on-site implementation. Some municipalities in Sarajevo Canton have been recently allowed to solve landslide-related problems without including representatives of the Institute for Construction (for example, Municipality of Novo Sarajevo). Most of the investments come from the munici- pality budget. The Institute for Development Planning of the Canton of Sarajevo (ZPR), the public institution that handles development planning, maintains the landslide database in Canton of Sarajevo using the data from ZIK. In addition, the following governmental agencies are involved with landslides in the Canton: • Sarajevo Canton Prime Minister’s Office—as a permanent member, the office provides continuity to the landslide risk management activities; • Ministry of Economy—in charge of geotechnical investigation works permits; • Sarajevo Canton Ministry of Spatial Planning, Construction, and Environmental Protection. 181 EU recovery program (2015). Floods and landslides risk assessment for the housing sector in Bosnia and Herzegovina, HEIS Sarajevo. 182 Canton of Sarajevo. (2014). Sanacija klizišta na području Kantona Sarajevo, Zavod za izgradnju Kantona Sarajevo, in Bosnian. http://zik.ks.gov.ba/sanacija-klizi%C5%A1ta. 121 Landslide Hazard Situational Assessment Sarajevo Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina Landslide Inventory An earlier landslide analysis conducted in 2009, under the supervision of the ZPR declared more than 1,000 registered landslides in the Canton of Sarajevo (Figure 1.1). This inventory preparation was heavily relied on qualitative data, such as visual inspection of the terrain by geological experts. Currently, the landslide inventories of the Canton of Sarajevo, including land- slide contours and landslide inspection data, is available in printed and elec- tronic forms at the Institute for Development Planning (ZPR) and the Institute for Construction (ZIK). Both the ZPR and the ZIK are improving the landslide inven- tory map by updating the content after remediation. The landslide database is reg- ularly updated with the remediation action performed at the landslide locations. It is expected that the base update will continue and extend the base content. Figure A.1 The distribution of landslides in the Canton of Sarajevo Source: Institute for Development Planning. 122 RESHAPING CITIES Landslide Susceptibility Map A qualitative susceptibility map (“stability map”) of the Canton of Sarajevo was prepared about 20 years ago under the supervision of the ZPR. The stability map is an important document that drives permitting decisions in the Canton of Sarajevo (see Figure A.2). The stability map of Canton Sarajevo identifies three zones of ground stability: stable ground (green area), conditionally stable ground (yellow area), and unstable ground (red area). Most of the red areas are declared as land- slides, shown in Figure A.2, as dark red that corresponds to the landslide areas shown in Figure A.1. While these two maps show the overlap of most unstable areas and landslide locations, plenty of those dark red areas show no signs of sliding, and that people have lived there for the last 30 years without experiencing the consequences of ground displacement. The stability map should be updated as advanced technical approaches became available and urbanized area has been expanded since it was created. The ZPR uses the stability map for planning future construction activities and retrospective legalization of the facilities constructed without a permit. The data includes details of each red or yellow zone such as the number of buildings, photos of the buildings or signs or landslides, and existing borehole logs conducted for planning purposes. The stable territory occupies an area of 1,032.1 km2 (81.3% of the Sarajevo Canton area), and the conditionally stable territory occupies an area of 152.9 km2 (12.1%), which does not experience landslides. The unstable territory occupies an area of 81.1 km2 (6.4%). A total of 12,000 residential units exist in the unstable area, according to the ZPR data. 123 Landslide Hazard Situational Assessment Sarajevo Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina Figure A.2 The stability map of the Canton of Sarajevo (overlaid with Google Earth satellite imagery) Source: Institute for Development Planning (ZPR). Prioritization process of landslide mitigation in Canton of Sarajevo The ZIK delivered the investment details amounting to a total of approximately BAM 3.1 million during the last five years (2017-2022) on landslide remediation. A set of specified prioritization principles was applied during the recent selection of landslides for remediation by the ZIK, based on 1) the number of living units in landslide areas, 2) projects whose remediation achieves significant effects on a broader area, 3) projects for which the municipality, investors, creditors, or other entities have secured financial resources, buildings that are protected by landslide 124 RESHAPING CITIES remediation have construction projects and a building permit, and 4) the number of landslide remediation projects nominated by the municipality.183 Prioritization is also impacted by the total expected cost for landslide remedia- tion. The assessment of the remediation cost can be obtained by detailed inspec- tion and field visits for all the locations declared as a landslide. Upon inspection, experienced engineers will determine the remediation measures by preparing a conceptual design, which includes cost estimation. In the Canton of Sarajevo, most landslides are slow movement without apparent signs of recent sliding activity, and the cracks on the existing buildings, retain- ing walls, and roads are usually the only indicators to identify soil movements. However, as no systematic continuous monitoring has been performed in the past, it is difficult to confirm the sliding activity. The Municipality of New Sarajevo recently initiated the qualitative risk assessment. The municipality initiated these activities since people living in illegally built units asked for retrospective legaliza- tion184 and municipality representatives could not wait for Cantonal Institutions to handle these requests. Specifically, field visits were arranged to inspect every area declared as a landslide according to the existing inventory. Based on the report on the outcome of the qualitative risk assessment, the risk level for a partic- ular location is determined to enable proposing appropriate action and the mitiga- tion costs and develop conceptual designs. Site conditions for selected landslides in the Canton of Sarajevo This section highlights some of major landslides in the Canton. First, there are locations declared as landslides in the existing database and an active landslide is confirmed from the field visit. As an example, Landslide Svrake (Figure A.3a) in Vogošća municipality is a deep-seated landslide activated in 2014, which has destroyed a few houses. Some remediation measures have been applied between 2014-2015. However, due to its extensive depth, this location remains a very high susceptibility area that should be continuously monitored. Similar conditions were recorded for the landslides in the municipality (Figure A.3b), which was activated at the end of 2021 after an extensive rainfall, combined with continuous illegal landfill constructions at the top of the slope. 183 Note: According to this prioritization principle, the landslides within the owner’s lot due to the owner’s negligent behavior and endangering his property will not be considered within the public call. 184 The common practice in Sarajevo is that houses are built without construction permits, and a permit is requested after construction. This practice is called ‘the legalization of erected houses built without construction permits’ (Martin-Diaz et al. 2018). 125 Landslide Hazard Situational Assessment Sarajevo Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina Figure A.3 Selected sites of confirmed landslides in the Canton of Sarajevo a) Landslide Svrake b) Landslide triggered by an embankment construction (Vogošća municipality) from the in New Sarajevo municipality Satelite data (Google Earth, 10/2014) There are a plenty of other slopes declared as landslides and surrounding areas are highly inhabited. Conversations with the inhabitants during the field visits revealed both the low level of risk awareness among the residents and the mismatch between the data and the reality. Most of the interviewed commu- nity members were surprised by the information because of no signs of land- slide activity in their land on which they live. A man selling his land was asked to reduce the property’s price since the location was marked as a landslide on the existing stability maps, although his family had lived there for over 200 years without experiencing soil sliding. After a further investigation, including soil drilling and in-situ testing, a very stiff soil material was confirmed, indicating a very low susceptibility at the location. On the contrary, some people in similar areas urge remediation since visible cracks on the house walls signal possible soil movements. These findings support that a more comprehensive and scientific understanding of landslide processes and occurrence is needed to reduce losses from landslides. At the same time, a more robust monitoring program and early warning system should be developed to warn the community for impending danger from active landslides. Municipal-level representatives should also be engaged to raise public awareness of the threat and understanding of the options for reducing the risk at the local level. Identified Issues Based on the interviews of these agencies, the following challenges have been identified: 1) different landslide inventories are maintained at ZIK and ZPR, 2) the Federal Geological Institute does not receive inputs from cantonal organizations 126 RESHAPING CITIES including the Canton of Sarajevo for delivering geological-geotechnical data on landslides, 3) cumbersome procedures for geological engineering investigation works. Obtaining the permit for field investigations is complex and time-consum- ing as per the existing cantonal law on geological investigation works, which has rooms for improvement. The coordination between the stakeholders could be improved. As most institu- tions work independently, some overlap exists across institutions. For example, coordination is lacking between ZIK, ZPR, and the Federal Institute for Geology, as an umbrella organization for geological issues including landslides. ZIK and ZPR and the Ministry of Economy would benefit from better coordination on land- slide mitigation activities. Institutions such as the Federal Ministry of Physical Planning, the Cantonal Administration of Civil Protection (who makes invest- ments in landslide remediation projects), representatives from selected municipal- ities and from academia, should also be closer stakeholders alongside the Canton in trying to tackle the challenge. Recommendations The followings are the list of recommended activities based on the assessment. 1. Policy: Review and improve the procedures for obtaining the permit for field investigations before construction (as guided by the cantonal law and guidelines on geological engineering investigation) can take place. The current procedure has room for improvements both technically and institutionally. 2. Update the existing landslide inventory: The landslide inventory should contain only actual landslides with those occurred in the past and slopes with visible signs of sliding activity and notable cracking on existing facilities. Enhance coordination between ZIK and ZPR on the methodology and maintenance to update the inventory. 3. Prepare landslide risk maps: Upgrade the existing stability map to a landslide risk map. Landside risk assessment and hazard zoning are key for better landslide mitigation and management. These activities should include the development of an online-based visualization system. In addition, a decision support system should be added to the visualization system to help technical agencies and communities to understand and manage the risk. The factors for the risk assessment should include geo- logical conditions, rainfalls, morphological characteristics (slope angles, slope orientation), type of surface cover, and streams on or by the slopes need to be evaluated for landslide susceptibility map preparation. 4. Screen and monitor for landslide risks: Conventional geotechnical survey monitoring and advanced inclinometer probe monitoring are methods usually used in local practice. However, applying the advanced InSAR monitoring technique for landslide risk screening should be also considered as the technology can detect slow movement of houses or infrastructure. 127 Landslide Hazard Situational Assessment Sarajevo Canton, Bosnia and Herzegovina 5. Define technical guidelines, and prioritize landslide remedia- tion: The susceptibility and risk maps of the Canton of Sarajevo, once updated, will serve in permitting and spatial planning activities, which is an essential aspect for public Institutes in Canton of Sarajevo. Technical guidance relating susceptibility and risk level to decisions and planning activities should be provided as general rules, supported by the detailed instructions that the public institutions should provide. The technical guidance on best construction practices should relate to susceptibility level and construction activity. Landslide Management Policy Framework in Japan As part of the landslide situational assessment of Canton of Sarajevo, City of Hiroshima, Japan was engaged to share challenges and good practices with Sarajevo to keep their urban hills safe. This section explains how the Japanese experience in regulating development in landslide risk zones is very pertinent to Sarajevo’s challenges. Japan, a country with many mountainous terrains and a history of geohazards including landslides, slope failures, and debris flows, has, over time, developed a sound policy framework for landslide disaster management. To protect lives and properties, comprehensive approaches to landslide risk management that combine hard infrastructure and non-structural (soft) measures are emphasized. Soft measures, ranging from risk identification, risk-informed zoning, hazard mapping, development permits, monitoring of compliance, risk awareness, to capacity building and evacuation training to residents, policies and regulations, are the foundation that underpins resilient urban development. For example, the area division system, as set forth in the City Planning Act, demar- cates (a) Urbanization Promotion Areas and (b) Urbanization Control Areas. In the urbanization control areas, strict restrictions are in place on development activities and construction. The Residential Land Development Regulation Act focuses on residential land and further ensures structural integrity of land through a permission system for the development of residential land plots (of certain size), as well as by designating the areas in which new housing land development is controlled due to high susceptibility. If an area is designated as Sediment Disaster Special Alert Zones, so-called ‘red zone’,—the areas with a disaster risk triggering building damage that results in significant harm to human lives—certain devel- opment activities (such as building houses or the facilities that house vulnerable groups) are prohibited unless they meet stringent structural safety standards. There are cases in which mismatches emerge between the two types of zoning— one pertaining to development and the risk-based zoning—as risk identification was introduced later than development area divisions. Some areas had previ- ously been designated as urbanization promotion areas, but later became part of red zones and thus construction is not permitted. Local governments, tasked with policy implementation, identify these inconsistencies, and adjust the area 128 RESHAPING CITIES divisions accordingly, so that the red zones are incorporated into urbanization control areas. The preexisting houses in such areas are not made illegal yet are encouraged to relocate (using available subsidies to alleviate the cost) or when it come to the time of re-building, required to put in place structural reinforcements. Figure A.4 Coordination of zoning between urbanization control and risk areas %HIRUH=RQLQJ$GMXVWPHQW $IWHU=RQLQJ$GMXVWPHQW Red zone for sediment disasters Incorporated into urbanization control area Urbanization control area Urbanization promotion area Red Zone exists within Change to Area urbanization promotion area Division Line Source: The City of Hiroshima presentation to the Canton of Sarajevo (2023). 129 RESHAPING CITIES Readying Cities in the Western Balkans for a changing climate Amid urban growth, political transformations, demographics shifts, and the COVID-19 pandemic, the ability to endure has emerged as a defining characteristic of cities in the Western Balkans. Now, as the threat of climate change casts its shadow over the region, the formidable resilience of these cities faces a renewed trial in the face of urgent challenges. 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