Mobility and Transport Connectivity Series Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa © 2024 World Bank International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Internet: http://www.worldbank.org/transport Standard Disclaimer This work is a product of the staff of The International Bank of Reconstruction and Development/ World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 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Maps: Cover image: Adobe Stock Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | iii Acknowledgment Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | iv About the Author Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | v Table of Contents Abbreviations and Acronyms������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xi Executive Summary��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������xxi Introduction and Background��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xxii Why was this Report Prepared?���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xxii What are the Main Findings?��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xxiii The Action Plan������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� xxviii 1. Introduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1 1.1. Background����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 2 1.2. The Structure of the Report������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 4 2. The Regional Trade and Transport Network���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������5 2.1. Introduction���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 2.2. The Main International Corridors��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 6 2.3. The Cost and Travel Time on the Corridors������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 2.4. The Road Traffic on the Corridors in 2019�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 21 2.5. The Border Crossing Points�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������23 2.6. Regional Transport GHG emissions���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������25 2.7. Conclusions and Recommendations�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������28 3. The Regional Africa Freight Model and the Demand Forecasts������������������������������������������������������31 3.1. Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32 3.2. Transport network and travel times�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������32 3.3. Road, Rail, and Port Volumes��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������34 3.4. Commodity demand data and zoning structure����������������������������������������������������������������������������36 3.5. Traffic assignment on the network���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������37 3.6. Model results: Year 2019���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������38 3.7. Forecast results, 2050�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������40 3.8. Conclusions and Recommendations�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������44 4. The Impact of Climate Change����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 46 4.1. Introduction�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 47 4.2. Climate vulnerability assessment overview������������������������������������������������������������������������������������48 4.3. Results, current climate conditions��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������52 4.4. Results, future climate conditions�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������59 4.5. Conclusions and Recommendations�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������63 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | vi 5. Barriers and Enabling Reforms to Regional Trade�������������������������������������������������������������������������� 66 5.1. Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������67 5.2. The World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA)���������������������������67 5.3. The Current State of Progress���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 68 5.4. The challenge of implementing TFA measures��������������������������������������������������������������������������������71 5.5. Conclusions and Recommendations�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������75 6. The Social Cost of Regional Trade������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 78 6.1. Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������79 6.2. Ensuring Safety in Corridor Communities���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������79 6.3. The Road Safety Diagnostic�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 80 6.4. The Challenge of HIV/STIs infection in Corridor Communities�������������������������������������������������� 86 6.5. Human Trafficking������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 90 6.6. Conclusions and Recommendations������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 90 7. Sustainable Financing of the Regional Transport and Trade Network���������������������������������������� 93 7.1. Introduction��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������94 7.2. Expenditure Needs and Resources�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������94 7.3. Domestic Sources, Road Funds and Road User Charges��������������������������������������������������������������97 7.4. Conclusions and Recommendations�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������104 8. Critical Short- and Medium-Term Improvement Needs��������������������������������������������������������������� 108 8.1. Introduction������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������109 8.2. Project selection and screening��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������109 8.3. Economic evaluation of projects������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 111 8.4. Results of economic evaluation and project prioritization���������������������������������������������������������112 8.5. The Trans-Kalahari Corridor (TKC)�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������126 8.6. The Walvis Bay Corridors������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������130 8.7. Conclusion���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������149 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | vii List of Tables Table 2.1. Network size by level and country������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 12 Table 2.2. Rail corridor axle loads and maximum train length������������������������������������������������������������������ 15 Table 2.3. Rail corridor track condition and utilization��������������������������������������������������������������������������������17 Table 2.4. Rail corridor expansion plans��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 18 Table 2.5. Comparative corridor travel times and tariffs per mode (2019)������������������������������������������� 19 Table 2.6. Border post crossing times per direction – weighted median hours (2019, unless indicated)�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������24 Table 2.7. Road transport average emission intensities by road characteristics (gCO2 (vehicle-km)-1)������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������26 Table 3.1. Rail corridor routes – 2019 rail freight throughput volumes��������������������������������������������������35 Table 3.2. Key assumptions on vehicle payload and operating costs entering the transport model���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������38 Table 3.3. Identified port capacity constraints���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������39 Table 4.1. Thresholds used for establishing the disruption of a transport link������������������������������������� 51 Table 4.2. Duration of disruption per event, historical average 2000-2018�����������������������������������������57 Table 5.1. Status of implementation of priority measures impacting cross-border movements���� 69 Table 5.2. TFA implementation rates for the corridor countries���������������������������������������������������������������71 Table 6.1. Population, road deaths and death rates per population for Southern Africa 2019�������� 80 Table 6.2. Road fatalities by transport mode for countries in Southern Africa 2019������������������������� 81 Table 6.3. Serious injury and fatal/injury numbers and costs for Southern Africa������������������������������82 Table 6.4. Demographic information of fatalities and injuries of road users�����������������������������������������83 Table 6.5. Challenges from HIV/AIDS in the Transport Sector���������������������������������������������������������������� 88 Table 6.6. Challenges from COVID-19 in the Transport Sector���������������������������������������������������������������� 89 Table 7.1. List of known/major transport PPPs in the study area���������������������������������������������������������� 96 Table 7.2. Country Summary Data����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 98 Table 7.3. Change in Estimated Road Fund Revenue by Country 2014-2020�������������������������������������� 99 Table 7.4. Application of RUC funding mechanisms by country������������������������������������������������������������� 101 Table 8.1. Decision matrix for project evaluation based on project preparedness.���������������������������� 110 Table 8.2. Enabling reforms.���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 113 Table 8.3. Border posts and enabling reforms on the North-South Corridor��������������������������������������� 116 Table 8.4. Railway projects on the North-South Corridor�������������������������������������������������������������������������117 Table 8.5. Road expansion projects on North-South Corridor������������������������������������������������������������������117 Table 8.6. Short-term Road improvement projects on North-South Corridor������������������������������������� 118 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | viii Table 8.7. Medium-term road improvement projects on North-South Corridor���������������������������������120 Table 8.8. Long-term road improvement projects on North-South Corridor���������������������������������������122 Table 8.9. Port projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor��������������������������������������������������������������������������126 Table 8.10. Railway projects identified on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor�������������������������������������������������126 Table 8.11. Short-term road improvement projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor�������������������������� 127 Table 8.12. Medium-term road improvement projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor��������������������� 127 Table 8.13. Long-term road improvement projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor���������������������������128 Table 8.14. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Walvis Bay Corridors����������������������������������������130 Table 8.15. Railway projects identified on the Walvis Bay Corridors������������������������������������������������������130 Table 8.16. Road expansion projects identified on the Walvis Bay Corridors���������������������������������������� 131 Table 8.17. Short-term road improvement projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors������������������������������� 131 Table 8.18. Medium-term road improvement projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors��������������������������� 131 Table 8.19. Long-term road improvement projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors���������������������������������132 Table 8.20. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Dar es Salaam Corridor�����������������������������������134 Table 8.21. Port projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor����������������������������������������������������������������������������134 Table 8.22. Railway projects identified on the Dar es Salaam Corridor��������������������������������������������������135 Table 8.23. Road expansion projects identified in the Dar es Salaam Corridor�������������������������������������135 Table 8.24. Short-term road improvement projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor���������������������������135 Table 8.25. Medium-term road improvement projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor�����������������������136 Table 8.26. Long-term road improvement projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor�����������������������������136 Table 8.27. Rail projects identified on the Lobito Corridor�������������������������������������������������������������������������138 Table 8.28. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Maputo Corridor������������������������������������������������139 Table 8.29. Port projects identified on the Maputo Corridor����������������������������������������������������������������������139 Table 8.30. Railway projects identified on the Maputo Corridor���������������������������������������������������������������139 Table 8.31. Road expansion projects identified on the Maputo Corridor������������������������������������������������140 Table 8.32. Short-term road improvement projects on the Maputo Corridor����������������������������������������140 Table 8.33. Medium-term road improvement projects on the Maputo Corridor�����������������������������������140 Table 8.34. Long-term road improvement projects on the Maputo Corridor������������������������������������������141 Table 8.35. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Beira Corridor�����������������������������������������������������143 Table 8.36. Port projects identified on the Beira Corridor���������������������������������������������������������������������������143 Table 8.37. Railway projects identified on the Beira Corridor��������������������������������������������������������������������143 Table 8.38. Road expansion projects on Beira Corridor�������������������������������������������������������������������������������144 Table 8.39. Short-term road improvement projects on Beira Corridor����������������������������������������������������144 Table 8.40. Medium-term road improvement projects on Beira Corridor�����������������������������������������������144 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | ix Table 8.41. Long-term road improvement projects on Beira Corridor�����������������������������������������������������144 Table 8.42. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Nacala Corridor��������������������������������������������������145 Table 8.43. Port projects identified on Nacala Corridor������������������������������������������������������������������������������146 Table 8.44. Railway projects identified on Nacala Corridor������������������������������������������������������������������������146 Table 8.45. Road expansion projects identified on Nacala Corridor���������������������������������������������������������146 Table 8.46. Short-term road improvement projects on the Nacala Corridor����������������������������������������� 147 Table 8.47. Medium-term road improvement projects on the Nacala Corridor������������������������������������� 147 Table 8.48. Long-term road improvement projects on the Nacala Corridor�������������������������������������������148 List of Figures Figure 2.1. The main trade corridors of the region������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������ 7 Figure 2.2. The Railway network in the South and East Africa������������������������������������������������������������������ 13 Figure 2.3. AADT and percent heavy vehicles per corridor, 2019��������������������������������������������������������������� 21 Figure 2.4. AADT and percent heavy vehicles per country, 2019��������������������������������������������������������������� 21 Figure 2.5. AADTT modelled volumes for road network, 2019��������������������������������������������������������������������22 Figure 2.6. Modelled rail volumes in 2019, MTPA�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������23 Figure 3.1. Freight transport model development process��������������������������������������������������������������������������32 Figure 3.2. Observed (Google floating car data) versus travel times from the freight transport model�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������34 Figure 3.3. RAFM countries���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������36 Figure 3.4. AADT modelled vehicles volumes, 2050��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������42 Figure 3.5. Modelled rail volumes, 2050 with current network������������������������������������������������������������������42 Figure 3.6. Border post traffic now (bars), and capacity needs to 2050 (dots)�������������������������������������43 Figure 4.1. Left: Annual precipitation, average 1991-2020, mm. Right: Annual mean temperatures, average 1991-2020, C���������������������������������������������������� 47 Figure 4.2. Road and rail network in RAFM. On the right-hand side, critical infrastructure for trade flow is highlighted������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������52 Figure 4.3. Links affected by extreme heat, historical average������������������������������������������������������������������54 Figure 4.4. Links affected by fluvial flooding, historical average for a 1-in-100-year event.��������������55 Figure 4.5. Links affected by pluvial flooding, historical average, 1-in-100-year event�����������������������55 Figure 4.6. Links affected by extreme wind due to tropical storms, historical average, 1-in-100-year event��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������56 Figure 4.7. Port downtime, present day, annual average�����������������������������������������������������������������������������58 Figure 4.8. Links affected by extreme heat, projections SSP1-2.6 2050s ��������������������������������������������� 60 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | x Figure 4.9. Links affected by extreme heat, projections SSP5-8.5 2050s��������������������������������������������� 60 Figure 4.10. Links affected by extreme wind, projections to 2050, 1-in-100-year event���������������������� 61 Figure 4.11. Port downtime, RCP 2.6 (median) and RCP 8.5 (extreme), in days/year in 2050�������������62 Figure 6.1. Reported road traffic fatalities ratios by gender (2016)���������������������������������������������������������83 Figure 7.1. Ex-Im Bank Direct Loan Structure (CRS)������������������������������������������������������������������������������������95 Figure 7.2. Road Fund Revenue vs Expenditures – 2019 US$ Millions��������������������������������������������������� 100 Figure 7.3. Fuel Levies by Country (2019)������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������102 Figure 7.4. Petrol price and % taxes, levy on petrol (2019)�������������������������������������������������������������������������103 Figure 7.5. Diesel price and % taxes, levy on Diesel��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������103 Figure 8.1. Approach followed in the development of the short- and medium-term investment program�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������109 Figure 8.2. Projects on the North-South Corridor����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������125 Figure 8.3. Projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������129 Figure 8.4. Projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������133 Figure 8.5. Projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 137 Figure 8.6. Projects on the Lobito Corridor����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������138 Figure 8.7. Projects on the Maputo Corridor�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������142 Figure 8.8. Projects on the Beira Corridor������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������145 Figure 8.9. Projects on the Nacala Corridor���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������148 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xi Abbreviations and Acronyms Abbreviation Definition AADT Average Annual Daily Traffic AADTT Annual Average Daily Truck Traffic AC Asphalt Concrete AEC African Economic Community AEO Authorized Economic Operator AfCAC African Civil Aviation Commission AfCFTA Africa Continental Free Trade Area AFD Agence Francoise de Development AfDB African Development Bank AMU Arab Maghreb Union ANE Administração Nacional de Estradas API Application Programming Interface ARASA Aids and Rights Alliance for southern Africa ARS African Regional Standard ASANRA Association of National Road Agencies AU African Union AUC African Union Commission B/C Benefit Cost Ratio BAC Blood Alcohol Concentration BASA Bilateral Air Services Agreement BBR Beitbridge Bulawayo Railway BOT Build-Operate-Transfer BPR Business Process Reengineering BR Botswana Railways BURS Botswana Unified Revenue Services Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xii Abbreviation Definition CAPEX Capital expenditures CBM Coordinated Border Management CBRTA Cross Border Road Transport Agency CCBG Committee of Central Bank Governors CDN Corredor de Desenvolvimento do Norte CFB Caminho de Ferro de Benguela CFM Mozambique Ports & Railways CEN-SAD Community of Sahel-Saharan States (CEN-SAD) CFM - Central Caminhos de Ferro de Moçambique - Centro CFM - South Caminhos de Ferro de Moçambique – Sul CIP Climate Information Portal CISNA Committee of Insurance, Securities and Non-Bank Financial Authorities CMIs Corridor Monitoring Institution CMT Committee of Ministers of Trade COMESA Common Market for Eastern and Southern Africa Cooperative Development of Operational Safety and Continuous COSCAP Airworthiness Project COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease of 2019 CPI Consumer Price Index CPMS Corridor Performance Monitoring System CRN Core Road Network CTMS Corridor Trip Monitoring System CTROM Comprehensive Toll Road Operations and Maintenance CVTFS COMESA Virtual Trade Facilitation System DBFOM Design Build Finance Operate, Maintain DBOT Design Build Operate, Transfer DBSA Development Bank of Southern Africa DCC Dar es Salaam Corridor Committee Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xiii Abbreviation Definition DFA Donor Funded Agency DFI Development Finance Institution DFID Department for International Trade DGDA DRC Customs DoT Department of Transport DR Designated Representative DRC Democratic Republic of Congo DRTSS Directorate of Road Transport and Safety Services DSCR Debt Service Coverage Ratio DST Double Surface Treatment EAC East African Community EAIF Emerging Africa Infrastructure Fund EA-SA Eastern and Southern Africa ECA Export Credit Agencies ECCAS Economic Community of Central African States ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ECRAI Enhancing the Climate Resilience of Africa’s Infrastructure ECTS Electronic Cargo Tracking System EDF European Development Fund EIB European Investment Bank ER Eswatini Railways ESA Equivalent Standard Axle ESG Environmental, Social, And Governance EU European Union FCDO The Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office of the United Kingdom FEMATRO Federação Moçambicana das Associações dos Transportadores Rodoviários FER Fundo de Estradas Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xiv Abbreviation Definition FESARTA Federation of Regional Road Freight Associations FTDM Freight Transport Development Model GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GDP Gross Domestic Product GFB General Freight Business GHG Greenhouse Gas Emissions GIS Geographical Information System GIZ Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit GmbH GVM Gross Vehicle Mass HCM Highway Capacity Manual HDM-4 Highway Development and Maintenance. Management System HIV Human Immunodeficiency Virus HV Heavy Vehicle ICA Infrastructure Consortium for Africa ICAO International Civil Aviation Organization ICT Information Communication Technology IDB Inter-American Development Bank IDF Infrastructure Debt Funds IFC International Finance Corporation IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IMF International Monetary Fund IRI International Roughness Index IRR Internal Rate of Return ISO International Safety Standards JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency KFW KFW Development Bank LICs Low-Income Countries Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xv Abbreviation Definition LNG Liquified Natural Gas LOS Level of Service LSCI Liner Shipping Connectivity Index LTPF Long-Term Planning Framework LV Light Vehicle MCBRTA Multilateral Cross-Border Road Transport Agreement MCLI Maputo Corridor Logistics Initiative MDB Multilateral Development Bank MDC Mass-Distance Charges MDCMI Maputo Development Corridor Management Institution MOU Memorandum of Understanding MPDC Maputo Port Development Corporation MS Member States MTN Medium-Term-Note Programs Mtpa Million tons per annum NBCRFLI National Bargaining Council for the Road Freight and Logistics Industry NCTTCA Northern Corridor Transit and Transport Coordination Authority NEPAD New Partnership for Africa’s Development NMC National Monitoring Committee NPV Net Present Value NRZ National Railways of Zimbabwe NSC North-South Corridor NSCMI North-South Corridor Management Institution NSF National Strategic Framework NTB Non-Tariff Barriers NWR Northwest Rail O&M Operations and Maintenance Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xvi Abbreviation Definition O-D (or OD) Origin-Destination OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development OPEX Operating Expenses OSBP One-Stop-Border-Post OSC One Stop Centre OSM OpenStreetMap PBH Principal Bond Holder PCU Passenger Car Unit PEPFAR US President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief PFI Private Finance Initiative PFR Primary Feeder Road PHMN Port Harbor Masters Network PIDA Program for Infrastructure Development in Africa PIDA-PAP PIDA Priority Action Plan PIDG Private Infrastructure Development Group PMAESA Port Operations, Marine Protection, Safety and Security Board PMAESA Port Management Association of Eastern and Southern Africa PPIAF The Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility PPP Public-Private Participation RA Roads Authority / Rail Authority RAFM Regional Africa Forecast Model RBIDZ Richards Bay Industrial Development Zone RCMI Regional Corridor Monitoring Institution RCP Responsible Competent Person RCTBG Regional Customs Transit Bond Guarantee RCTG Regional Customs Transit Guarantee RDA Road Development Agency Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xvii Abbreviation Definition REC Regional Economic Community RFA Road Freight Association RFI Request for Information RFID Radio Frequency Identification Device RIFF Regional Infrastructure Financing Facility RISDP Regional Indicative Strategic Development Plan ROCKS Road Costs Knowledge System Ro-Ro Roll on – Roll off RSA Republic of South Africa RUC Road User Charges SA Southern Africa SAATM Single African Air Transport Market SACU Southern African Customs Union SAD Single Administrative Document SADC Southern African Development Community SAFDF South African Freight Demand Forecast SANRAL South African National Roads Agency SARA Southern African Railways Association SARPs Standards and Recommended Procedures SARS South African Revenue Services SASO SADC Aviation Safety Organization SATCC Southern African Transport and Communications Commission SDG Sustainable Development Goals SEE Strategic Economic Evaluation SMART Safety, Mobility, Automated, Real-Time Traffic Management SMTTIP Short and Medium-Term Trade and Transport Investment Program SNCC Société Nationale des Chemins de fer du Congo Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xviii Abbreviation Definition SPM Single Point Mooring SPV Special Purpose Vehicles SRA Swaziland Revenue Authority SRHR Sexual and Reproductive Health Rights SSATP The Africa Transport Policy Program STI Sexually Transmitted Infection STPRI Short Term Political Risk Index STS Ship to Shore Crane SWF Sovereign Wealth Funds TANCIS Tanzania Customs Information System TANROADS Tanzania National Roads Agency TARURA Tanzania Rural and Urban Roads Agency TATOA Tanzania Truck Owners Association TAZARA Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority TB Tuberculosis TCpC Trans Caprivi Corridor TCSE Transnet Centre of Systems Engineering TCuC Trans Cunene Corridor TEU Twenty-Foot Equivalent Unit TF Trade Facilitation TFR Transnet Freight Rail TFTA COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Free Trade Agreement TIR Transports Internationaux Routiers- International Road Transports TKC Trans-Kalahari Corridor TKCMC Trans-Kalahari Corridor Management Committee TKCS Trans-Kalahari Corridor Secretariat Tkm Ton-kilometer Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xix Abbreviation Definition TMD Trunk, Main and District TMEA TradeMark East Africa TMS Transit Management System TMSA TradeMark Southern Africa TOAZ Transport Operators Association of Zimbabwe TPA Tanzania Ports Authority TRA Tanzania Revenue Authority Tripartite COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite Member States TRIPS Transport Registers and Information Platform System TRL Tanzania Rail Limited TTCM Trade and Transport Corridor Management TTFA Trade and Transport Facilitation Assessment TTTFP Tripartite Transport and Transit Facilitation Program UK United Kingdom UMA Arab Maghreb Union UNADR United Nations Agreement International Carriage of Dangerous Goods by Road UNCTAD United Nations Commission on Trade and Development UNECA United Nations Economic Commission for Africa UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change USAID United States Agency for International Development US$ United States Dollar v/c Volume-capacity VfM Value for Money VGI Volunteered Graphic Information VID Vehicle Inspection Department VIN Vehicle Identification Number VKT Vehicle Kilometers Traveled Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xx Abbreviation Definition VLC Vehicle Load Control VLMA Vehicle Load Management Agreement VLMA Vehicle Load Mass Agreement VOC Vehicle operating cost VOC Vehicle Operating Costs VOT Value of Travel Time W AVG Weighted Average WBCG Walvis Bay Corridor Group WBNLDC Walvis Bay-Ndola-Lubumbashi Development Corridor WHO World Health Organization WIM Weigh In Motion Wits University of Witwatersrand WTO World Trade Organization WTO TFA World Trade Organization Trade Facilitation Agreement XB-RTMS Cross Border Road Transport Management System YD Yamoussoukro Decision ZIMRA Zimbabwe Revenue Authority ZINARA Zimbabwe National Road Administration ZipBcc Zambia Integrated Property Border Crossing Company ZRA Zambia Revenue Authority ZRL Zambia Railways Limited Executive Summary Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xxii Introduction and Background The case for integration in Africa rests on several premises and has remained the same over the years. The small size of many countries and fragmentation of domestic markets results in diseconomies of scale. Several countries have high rates of unemployment and poverty, particularly among the low-skilled; a large informal sector; and an overreliance on primary commodities. Over half of Southern Africa Development Community (SADC) countries have a population of less than 20 million. And about one-third of SADC countries are landlocked and crucially dependent on their neighbors for access to global markets. Despite earlier initiatives, integration is complicated by physical and institutional barriers such as distance, the poor quality of the infrastructure, and continued intra-regional policy and regulatory discrepancies. Improvements in the connective infrastructure and services reduce the economic distance between locations — the time and cost of trading between them — strengthening the connectivity of countries to regional and global value chains and improving their competitiveness. Despite the importance of transport to connectivity and competitiveness and the overwhelming need to reduce transport and trade costs, transport infrastructure (and transport services in the public domain) have been slowly deteriorating. While there have been improvements in the physical infrastructure on many of the key trading corridors across the Southern Africa region, the overall trend in network condition is not positive. This is likely to be exacerbated by the impact of the crisis on public finances and limitations in capacity. The increasing challenge of climate change will also likely pose a significant risk to Southern Africa. The projected climate change impacts range from reduction in precipitation, damage to land and coastal ecosystems, increasing vulnerability for agriculture and food systems, and climate-relevant health risks. Hence, further improvements in connectivity and regional integration need to be made in a manner that reflects the broader challenges of climate change, the need to decarbonize, and the need to improve resilience. There is also a lack of monitoring of the performance of the main trade corridors, and a paucity of robust and comprehensive work examining the current time and cost of moving consignments on the primary trade corridors in the region. Why was this Report Prepared? Whilst there has been a considerable amount of earlier work undertaken in the region on these topics, there has not been a comprehensive stocktaking and review of the current and expected pinch-points (both regarding infrastructure and enabling reforms) of the regional freight transport network for a number of years. Several regional studies have been undertaken, but they have tended to be at a higher level (SADC Transport Masterplan 2010), focus on a particular aspect (opportunities for private participation in infrastructure investment, Nathans 2011), or lack a robust evidential base in terms of current and projected demand. This is the first study that bases the assessment on the current situation, and projected demand. The COVID-19 pandemic also underlined the need to build resilience in the regional freight network, facilitate onshoring, and stimulate greater regional trade. There has also been no previous regional assessment of resilience on the main trading corridors and their respective maritime gateways in the sub-region. Especially linking it to the normal transport planning processes. Whilst some of the individual countries have had such a criticality assessment, it was usually undertaken outside the normal strategic planning process at a national or regional level. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xxiii This report was designed to address these gaps: 1. It involves a comprehensive review of the current situation for the first time in several years; 2. It has developed a regional transport freight model, the Regional Africa Freight Transport Model (RAFM) for the first time (which will be made available as a download from the World Bank after the launch); and 3. As a result, ensures the overlapping of the strategic transport planning processes, with an broad assessment of the impact of climate, possible changes in the structure of mineral flows, and the need for resilience on the transport and trade network in the region, while paying heed to social and gender issues. The result is a list of interventions in infrastructure, together with enabling reforms, over a defined forecasting period to 2050, given the challenges of climate change on the key trading corridors in the sub-region. The intention is that the output from the report should form an input into discussions with key national and regional stakeholders as to their regional priorities to enhance the overall objective of overcoming the barriers to green, efficient, and resilient connectivity of key trade flows in the Southern Africa region. This main report is also one element of a broader program of research under the program umbrella, funded by the partners. It comprises: 1. This main report (Volume 1) and its annexes (Volume 2); 2. A succinct accessible brief of the study and its findings (part of the dissemination package); 3. A regional transport freight model, the Regional Africa Freight Transport Model (RAFM) – the Python version of which will be made public at dissemination stage; 4. A Logistical Monitoring System (LMS) which continues to monitor over 100,000 trucks in the region and provides real-time data on corridor and border-crossing point performance, and hopefully will prove to be sustainable; 5. A working paper on the benefit of the big data provided by the LMS to a regional Corridor Monitoring Institution (CMI), and the need for a CMI (SSATP/World Bank, forthcoming); and 6. A working paper on what big data from the LMS reveals about the structure of the trucking sector in Southern Africa (SSATP/World Bank forthcoming). What are the Main Findings? The Physical Infrastructure Despite their importance to competitiveness and the need to reduce the cost of logistics, transport and trade infrastructure (and publicly provided transport services) in the region remain sub-optimal. While there have been earlier improvements and considerable investment on many of the key trading corridors across the region, the service provided remains suboptimal in terms of infrastructure condition, missing links and capacity constraints, limited inter-modality, poorly performing nodes and border crossings, and congestion around many cities and ports and on key sections of the networks. There is also a generic problem of inadequate maintenance due to insufficient recurrent expenditure or poor use of provided resources, and increasing problems of theft, vandalism, and neglect on the railways in some corridors. Finally, the border crossing points (BCPs) create significant cost and time penalties. The performance of the BCPs are years behind the Northern or Central Corridors, with limited trade facilitation (discussed in more detail in the next chapter). As freight volumes continue to grow significantly by 2050, emissions are expected to grow in a similar manner, unless significant mitigation efforts are put in place. These include reducing idling times, improving the railway network reliability, capacity, and competitiveness, and incentivizing significant model switch. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xxiv The regional freight demand model A RAFM was developed for the first time to model the flow of transport and trade in the wider Southern Africa region, and to test potential future infrastructure projects, trade facilitation improvements, and the impact on transport flows given expected climate impacts, on the network. This model has served three purposes: 1. The purposes of this study; 2. It will also form part of the forthcoming Africa-wide freight model; and 3. It will be made publicly available for others to use in future. It will be housed in the World Bank for use. These pinch points have been identified as: parts of the N4 and N3 in South Africa, as well as parts of the A1 in Botswana on the North South Corridor, and the N7 in Mozambique along the Beira Corridor will reach capacity prior to 2050. In Mozambique, railway lines between Gauteng Region and Maputo, Moatize and Beira, and Nacala and Beira will also need to be upgraded. In South Africa, railways from the North to Durban and to Richards Bay, and the link to Saldanha will all require upgrading. And many border crossing points will experience large increases in traffic, including some up to eight-fold. Over 3000 trucks/day are projected on the Kasumbalesa and Milange border crossings, and over 4000 trucks/day on the Komatipoort border. Resilience The assessment has shown that major freight routes, including roads, railways and ports, face disruptions due to extreme flooding, heat, and wind, and will become worse with climate change. The results from this exercise have been overlaid with the above list to identify key priorities both from a demand and a resilience perspective. In addition, it will be critical for individual country authorities to incorporate climate change considerations into their short-term infrastructure maintenance plans, long-term national infrastructure investment plans, and other planning processes: a. Flooding (both fluvial and pluvial) affects large parts of the network even for very common events. As such, priority should be given to managing flood risk. Investing in assist drainage, culverts under roads and railways, improved road surfacing, protection of bridge foundations, or raising the level of certain infrastructure sections may be beneficial. b. In general, it is useful to manage watersheds and reduce the degradation of land in water catchment areas of rivers. Nature-based solutions, such as reforestation, terracing of slopes, inland wetlands, floodplains, and management of small water bodies that can slow down the flow of excess water, or absorb water, are key to reducing this threat (World Bank, 2023). c. To maximize the benefits of nature-based solutions, local, site-specific assessments are needed that engage with local stakeholders effectively. Part of this exercise should include addressing existing uncertainty in the climate and socioeconomic conditions, as well as evaluating any additional co-benefits for local agriculture or watershed management. Any investment project should consider nature-based solutions as an integral part of their assessment. d. Adaptation to climate change risk is also effective at reducing risk. These include early warning systems and emergency response plans. Educating trade and transport workers on effective measures to reduce heat in trucks or on the road may be useful in areas that are more consistently exposed to heat, or more remote areas. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xxv e. Improve design standards for infrastructure to include adaptation in infrastructure design, and adaptation to climate change risk as a priority. f. Recommended next steps include quantifying expected direct damage and indirect macroeconomic losses of climate risk-related disruptions and updating transport risk assessments to take climate change into consideration. g. A full cost-benefit analysis should be conducted to evaluate the economic case for increasing the infrastructure resilience to hazards. Estimates of the costs to reduce these disruptions, and event-specific modelling, also into the future, would be needed for such an analysis. Additional hazards, such as exposure to dust storms or wildfires, should be considered where appropriate. The Enabling Reforms The WTO TFA came into force on 22 February 2017. The TFA aims to achieve regional coordination either by mutual recognition of another country’s legislation, or by the implementation of rules by a central authority, applicable in all countries. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, has the lowest implementation rate among all regions, at 35.8 percent. There are good reasons for this: The level of political will to implement regional agreements and pursue the necessary policy changes is often not forthcoming at all levels of Governments. In addition, although many African countries are not starting from scratch when it comes to implementing the TFA, actually implementing the recommendations can be cumbersome and costly in the short term. In the interim, the key priorities for the Member States along the corridors are the following: • The need for the development of more comprehensive Coordinated Border Management and the establishment of an effective Corridor Management Model. This will require discussion with the different agencies at the border, a change in current operating practice, greater use of ICT and most importantly, the adoption of risk management concepts • There is a need for more effective sharing of information among stakeholders engaged in trade and transport facilitation both at and behind the border • Domestic implementation of regional commitments remains a major challenge. There is a need for coordinated, simplified and harmonized operation of the standard trade related disciplines, including customs administration, trade remedies, trade facilitation, non-tariff barriers, standards, dispute settlement, domestic regulation of service and investment. The current status in the RECs and member states indicates that realizing this will take time • There is a need to introduce a simple, effective, efficient transit management system • Further technology is needed to enhance efficiency at the borders and remove outdated systematic and cumbersome international trade procedures • Effective leadership is needed to ensure sub-regional coordination to implement measures that will have the greatest impact on addressing the inefficiencies of the SADC transport corridors. The establishment of a Corridor Management Institution would be a key part of this, and a key element in the corridor management model discussed above Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xxvi Women represent most informal cross-border traders and are disproportionally affected by challenges at borders. Some measures to address these barriers include, but are not limited to the development of codes of conducts or “charters for cross-border traders” to bring collaboration between different stakeholders to improve the treatment towards traders at the border, development of mechanisms to report cases of abuse (both corruption and sexual harassment), training and sensitization to border officials, and supporting the employment of women as custom officials and security personnel at the borders. Complementary policies are relevant to make women more competitive in the market by providing, for instance, skills like financial inclusion, negotiation, and capacity building for better understanding border regulations. Interventions such as One Stop Borders or those involving technology can also support to make processes more agile and to reduce face-to-face interaction, contributing to reduce the risks that women face from human interaction. Border infrastructure needs to consider the needs of women in terms of health, safety, and violence prevention environmental design. The generation of sex disaggregated data is necessary to measure the multiple dimensions of trade on women to adequately inform policies and practices (UNCTAD, 2018). The Social Costs of Regional Trade The African continent accounts for 20 percent of global road traffic fatalities, numbering nearly 272,000 per annum. It accounts for 14 percent of the total world population and 3 percent of the registered vehicles. Africa has the highest road traffic fatality rate among World Health Organization (WHO) regions with a rate of 26.6 per 100,000 population in 2016. The burden of road traffic fatalities is disproportionately borne by low- and middle-income countries in the region, which together account for almost 100 percent of this burden. The African continent has a particularly high proportion of vulnerable road users, with pedestrians accounting for 34 percent of all the road traffic fatalities. There are also notable variations in road traffic fatalities by road user types. In Sub-Saharan Africa, road crash injuries (RCIs) are the fourth leading cause of death among men aged 15-49. A dedicated road safety program is well warranted and would yield a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of five and more, meaning that for each dollar invested in road safety, at least $5 would be saved in the costs of road crash deaths and injuries. Other recommended priorities for improved road safety over the coming decade include promoting shifts to more sustainable and safer transport modes; enhanced vehicle safety; safer transport for children; more stringent safety requirements for vehicles and transport services procurement; safe speed management; infrastructure safety; and potential safety gains from modern technologies (WHO, 2019). Countries in Southern Africa would benefit from strengthened enforcement (drunk driving, speeding, seat belt wearing and helmet use); implementation of informed actions to improve pedestrian and cyclist safety based on a succinct road safety strategy; adoption of UNECE safer vehicle regulations and safety standards for all new and used vehicles; and improved pre-hospital emergency care services. Some of the readily available ‘vaccines’ to treat the public health crisis that fatal and serious injury road transport crashes have delivered include: a) Introduction of speed limits appropriate to road use and available infrastructure investment b) Enforcement of compliance with legal speeds c) Development and funding of infrastructure safety programs to retrofit unsafe sections of the existing network to achieve infrastructure safety for all road users on the network (especially for safer pedestrian and cyclist movement) Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xxvii d) Adoption of UNECE safer vehicle regulations for all new vehicles and implementation of safety standards for imported vehicles e) Lowering of the legal blood alcohol concentration limit (0.05 g/dl for experienced drivers and 0.02 g/dl for new drivers and professional drivers) f) Improved protection to pedestrians through the provision of safer infrastructure ‘mass action’ programs, as well as speed management at key risk locations (e.g., schools, markets, villages) g) Enforcement of seat belt wearing and helmet use h) Improved regulations relating to public transport, including vehicle safety requirements (especially seat belt provision), infrastructure support, and monitoring of drivers for alcohol and speed Road safety management practices must be developed in parallel to facilitate the implementation of these crucial initiatives. With appropriate governmental commitment, many of these could be readily implemented and would be of substantial benefit to road safety across southern Africa. In addition, insufficient attention is also being paid to the vulnerability of the transport and transport-adjacent communities in southern Africa to HIV/AIDS, other diseases, and trafficking. Lack of HIV education, multiple short-term sex partners, widespread alcohol misuse and injecting drug use, lack of government health clinics and hospitals, or insufficient access to health clinics for foreigners, are all problems contributing to the higher incidence of disease. Women and girls are also vulnerable to human trafficking, with about 15 percent of victims detected in Sub-Saharan Africa tracked across borders from another Sub-Saharan Africa country (UNODC, 2022). and weak enforceability of road safety and border management measures contributes to the continuation of this practice. The Financing of the Regional Network The road network in the SADC region is one of the largest assets of the countries of the region. Developed long after the original rail networks appeared in the region, the road networks have evolved into critical and strategic infrastructure assets for every country. The road networks are key drivers and facilitators of trade, transport, and economic growth and development, stretching thousands of kilometers across borders and connecting all major cities and trading partners. However, the significant increase in the scale of the regional road network to achieve such connectivity has placed significant pressure on domestic recurrent budgets to maintain the asset. Despite the significant progress under the earlier Road Maintenance Initiative, which supported the commercialization of the road sector and the introduction of Road Funds with hypothecated revenue streams, the gap between maintenance needs and recurrent revenues is growing in many countries. Within SADC, all countries apart from Botswana and South Africa have an established road fund collecting ring-fenced revenue. In most cases, revenue falls well short of the recurrent expenditure needed to maintain the current network. But maintenance weaknesses at all levels of the road network occur not just from underfunding, but also from capacity constraints in the institutions themselves, weaknesses in the institutional framework, and political interference. SSATP (2019) noted that many road funds were hindered by poor financial management, absence of independent auditing, use of funds for unauthorized expenditures or other diversion of funds, and weak oversight. In addition, road user charges, such as transit fees, fuel levies or load charges, vary significantly between countries, complicating international transport. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | xxviii Across the study region, fuel levies are not indexed to inflation and in many cases are set by the government. A summary of the fuel levy rate charged by country is provided in Figure 7.2., which suggests a reconsideration of the rate of the fuel levy in some countries is long overdue. a. Finally, fuel levy tariffs will need to be increased and/or replaced over time as average fuel consumption per kilometer erodes with efficiency improvements, and technology shifts (EVs). Other RUCs will be required to replace the missing revenue. A shift to distance-based charges, as currently used in Namibia, may be an effective, consistent, and reliable source of revenue linked closely to road usage. The recommended next stop would be: A study which looks at the recurrent financing of the road network and identifies the appropriate scale and structure of a new set of road user taxes as a priority for the countries of the region. The Action Plan The report presents the findings of a comprehensive review of trade and transport in the SADC region, and, through an assessment of forecast demand, identifies and summarizes the current and expected pinch-points on the regional freight transport network. This covers the capacity, use and current condition of the key primary infrastructure, including the primary roads and bridges, railways, border crossing points, and seaports on the key trading corridors, and the essential trade-supporting public infrastructure. The Action Plan includes 22 enabling reforms, some of which are already ongoing, six port capacity upgrades, several railway projects, 15 road widenings, 11 border post capacity upgrades, and 121 road rehabilitation projects. Each infrastructure project has been classified as a short-, medium-, and long-term investment priority, and its importance in terms of adding resilience to the regional network has been indicated in the Action Plan. Enabling reforms include institutional and legal measures to reduce non-tariff barriers, and include border crossing management upgrades, monitoring of traffic, and assisting countries in harmonizing their trade and transit regulations, among others. These are considered a priority and should continue to be funded and implemented, as they have the highest potential to increase intra-regional trade, reduce informality, and reduce transport costs. Improvements to infrastructure and accessibility are aimed at increasing the capacity of existing ports, roads, railways, and border crossings, or improving their current condition. The economies and trade within SADC are projected to experience growth to 2050, with some border posts projected to experience an eight-fold increase in traffic in the next 30 years. In addition, due to the climate transition, many of the commodities found in Sub-Saharan Africa will be in high demand globally. Both factors cause additional strain on the existing transport infrastructure. The Action Plan, due to its size, has been presented in Chapter 8 in terms of the priorities by country, and in Annex H in Volume 2 in terms of overall priorities along the different corridors. An example is provided here: Chapter 1 Introduction Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 2 1.1. Background Growth across Sub-Saharan Africa remains sluggish, dragged down by uncertainty in the global economy, the under performance of the continent’s largest economies, high inflation, and a sharp deceleration of investment growth – and remains insufficient to reduce extreme poverty. Economic growth in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) is expected to slow to 2.5 percent in 2023, from 3.6 percent in 2022. It is projected to increase to 3.7 percent in 2024 and 4.1 percent in 2025. However, in per capita terms, growth in the region has not increased since 2015. In fact, the region is projected to contract at an annual average rate per capita of 0.1 percent over 2015–25, thus marking a lost decade of growth in the aftermath of the 2014–15 plunge in commodity prices. (World Bank, 2023). Poverty reduction trends, which were already derailed by the pandemic, have slowed further. The pandemic has induced a lasting impact on long-term growth, particularly affecting the poorest people and increasing extreme poverty. The slow recovery of the per capita income growth rate, at 0.9 percent in 2023 and 1.3 percent in 2024, still falls short of putting the continent back on the pre-pandemic path of poverty reduction. The challenge is compounded by the weak relationship between economic growth and poverty reduction in Sub-Saharan Africa. Consistent with rising poverty rates, inequality within countries in the region has widened, with rising fuel and food prices exacerbated by the war in Ukraine. The economic divide between the rich and poor in Sub-Saharan Africa rose during the COVID-19 pandemic following job and income losses, especially among less skilled workers in the informal sector. Rising unemployment was particularly sizable across genders, with women being the most affected. The regional economy’s weak rebound in the aftermath of the pandemic and the setback from rising inflation were insufficient to undo pandemic-induced job and income losses. This performance further underlines the case for regional integration. The small size of many countries and fragmentation of domestic markets results in various diseconomies of scale, which pulls down the economic potential of the entire continent. Over 70 percent of Sub-Saharan African countries have a population of less than 20 million, and about one-third of Sub-Saharan African countries are landlocked and crucially dependent on their neighbors for access to global markets. The fact that the resource base may often be in countries far removed from where the markets are makes it imperative to seek regional solutions to some of the usual challenges. Intra-African trade continues to be small, but the economic potential is significant. Only 12 percent of Africa’s imported intermediates is sourced from the region, compared to 60 percent in Europe and 40 percent in Asia (World Bank, 2018). A report by the IMF (2016) reinforced the need for the continent to address five priority areas to increase intra-regional trade: (i) bringing connective infrastructure to global average quality, which could improve intra-regional trade by 42 percent; (ii) addressing non-tariff barriers and investment climate; (iii) further financial deepening and access to credit, which could further increase intra-regional trade by 28 percent; (iv) lowering of tariffs, increasing domestic revenue mobilization; and (v) deepening integration in existing customs unions. The nascent African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) offers an opportunity, if implemented, to help realize this potential. However, climate change poses a significant and growing risk to the realization of that potential. Projected climate change impacts range from significant variation in precipitation, flooding, intense heat, and other extreme events. The result will be damage to land and coastal ecosystems, increased vulnerability for agriculture and food systems, and climate-relevant health risks. With a global mean Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 3 temperature increase of 4°C, risks for Africa’s food security are “assessed as very high, with limited potential for risk reduction through adaptation” (IPCC 2014). No region has contributed as little as Africa to the increase in global greenhouse gas emissions, yet Africa will face the brunt of climate change impacts. Climate change could also impact food security and poverty in the region via its effect on the transport and agro-logistics system, the functionality of which is essential for food security, the reliable deliveries of foodstuffs, medicine, other essential goods, and also general trade. A recent study estimates that climate change in SSA will have a major impact on road infrastructure, increasing the time networks are disrupted: in the worst climate scenarios, up to 2.5 times historic disruption due to extreme temperatures; 76 percent higher due to precipitation; and 14 times higher due to flooding. In several countries – e.g., Angola, Botswana, and Mozambique – even moderate changes in the climate will induce significant precipitation-related disruption (World Bank, 2017). The closure of Durban port for several days in 2022 (Reuters, 2022) due to flooding provides a harbinger of the future. Gender inequality in the agriculture sector has a direct impact on food security in SADC. In the SADC region, women represent most of the agricultural workforce: women’s share of employment in agriculture is 57 percent, compared to 46 percent of men (UNCTAD (United Nations Conference on Trade and Development), 2018). However, women’s productivity, measured in yields (kilogram per hectare) is lower due to the different dimensions of gender inequality in the agricultural sector including limited access to land, credit and inputs, and unequal work burden because of gender norms where women are responsible of most of the housework (UNCTAD, 2018). Gender inequality in agriculture limits women’s opportunities and the development of countries in general. According to a study by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), if women had equal access to resources as men, they could increase their family yields by 20 to 30 percent, with important benefits for food security and poverty alleviation (FAO, 2011; Oxfam, 2015). The transport sector is also crucial to stabilize the effects of the climate crisis through the reduction of net emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) and by providing adaptation alternatives. Transport emits around 15percent of total GHG emissions associated with global warming. Further, transport emissions have grown faster than those of almost any other sector over the past 50 years, and demand for transport will continue to grow in the coming decades as low and middle-income countries continue their development. So, further improvements in connectivity and regional integration need to be made in a manner that reflects the broader challenges of climate change, the need to decarbonize, and the need to improve resilience. Whilst there has been a considerable amount of earlier work undertaken in the region on these topics, there has not been a comprehensive stocktaking and review of the current and expected pinch-points, (both regarding infrastructure and enabling reforms) of the regional freight transport network for a number of years. Several regional studies have been undertaken, but they have tended to be at a higher level (SADC Transport Masterplan 2010); focus on a particular aspect (opportunities for private participation in infrastructure investment, Nathans 2011); or lack a robust evidential base in terms of current and projected demand. This is the first study that bases the assessment on the current situation and projected demand. The COVID-19 pandemic also underlined the need to build resilience in the regional freight network, facilitate onshoring, and stimulate greater regional trade. There has also been no previous regional assessment of resilience on the main trading corridors and their respective maritime gateways in Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 4 the sub-region. Especially linking it to the normal transport planning processes. Whilst some of the individual countries have had such a criticality assessment, it was usually undertaken outside the normal strategic planning process at a national or regional level. This report1 was designed to address these gaps: 1. It involves a comprehensive review of the current situation for the first time in several years: 2. It is the first regional study that developed a regional transport freight model, the Regional Africa Freight Transport Model (RAFM); and 3. The overlapping of the normal transport planning processes, with a broad assessment of resilience in the region. The result is that the study identifies key interventions, including enabling reforms and infrastructure, over a defined forecasting period to 2050, given the challenges of climate change for key trading corridors in the sub-region. The intention is that the output from the report should form an input into discussions with key national and regional stakeholders as to their priorities to enhance the overall objective of overcoming the barriers to green, efficient, and resilient connectivity of key trade flows in the Southern Africa region. This main report is also one element of a broader program of research under the program umbrella, funded by the partners. It comprises: 1. This main report (Volume 1) and its annexes (Volume 2); 2. A succinct, accessible brief of the study and its findings (part of the dissemination package); 3. A regional transport freight model, the Regional Africa Freight Transport Model (RAFM) – the Python version of which will be made public at the dissemination stage; 4. A Logistical (formerly Transport) Monitoring System (LMS), which monitors over 100,000 trucks in the region and provides real time data on corridor and border crossing point performance; 5. A working paper on the benefit of the big data (LMS) to a regional Corridor Monitoring Institution (SSATP/World Bank, forthcoming); and 6. A working paper on what big data reveal about the structure of the trucking sector in Southern Africa (SSATP/World Bank forthcoming). 1.2. The Structure of the Report The report (Volume 1) is structured in the following way: The first section provides an overview of the condition of the physical infrastructure and some of the challenges in maintaining and improving the network. The second section looks at the projected growth on the transport network up to 2050. The latter looks at the needs, and the complementarity between the corridors, given that growth under several defined scenarios. The third section is an assessment of the impact of climate change and the vulnerability of the regional trade and transport network under different scenarios. The fourth section looks at the enabling framework and reforms needed to improve regional trade, at the border and behind the border, with a more detailed exposition of the higher-level institutional framework for international trade provided in Annex E (Volume 2). The fifth section provides a summary of the oft-neglected social impacts of regional trade and transport. This is followed by a review of the challenges of funding the regional trade and transport network, in terms of the necessary recurrent and capital expenditure, and the potential for private finance. The final section provides a list of priority interventions in the physical infrastructure, their importance in terms of resilience, and the enabling reforms necessary to overcome the barriers to green, resilient inclusive and efficient regional trade and transport corridors in the southern Africa region. This Report has benefited substantially from the consultancy assignment “Regional Trade Facilitation and Transport Sector Review 1 for the Southern African Countries”, undertaken with the support of the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office of the United Kingdom (FCDO). Chapter 2 The Regional Trade and Transport Network Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 6 2.1. Introduction This section identifies the location of the main road and rail transport and trade corridors in the Southern Africa region. It highlights the current volumes on road and rail, vehicle speed, and time expenditures along the corridors and at the border crossing points. It also highlights the main impediments, where possible. The main trading corridors are illustrated in Figure 2.1., and a summary of key features is provided in the following paragraphs.2 2.2. The Main International Corridors The North-South Corridor (NSC) extends some 3,900 km (about 2,423 mi) from Dar es Salaam port in Tanzania to Durban port in South Africa. The corridor encompasses both road and rail networks, key maritime ports, and is the key strategic trade route. The NSC comprises two distinct sub- corridors: (a) the northern part (known as the Dar es Salaam Corridor, or more generally the Northern NSC), which extends for 1,768 km (about 1,098 mi) from Dar es Salaam in Tanzania to Kapiri Mposhi in Zambia, of which 904 km (about 561 mi) is in Zambia, and 864 km (about 536 mi) is in Tanzania, with branches to Malawi, Northern Mozambique, and the DRC; and (b) the southern half (hereafter the Southern NSC), from Durban port heading straight north to the DRC, via Botswana, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. This latter part of the NSC is the most heavily used corridor in the SADC Region. The Trans-Kalahari Corridor (TKC) is an East–West paved road connecting the Gauteng region in South Africa, via the Pioneer Gate/Skilpadshek border crossing port on the Botswana – South Africa border (near Lobatse) to the Mamuno/Buitepos border crossing point on the Namibia – Botswana border. This route extends some 1766 km (about 1076 mi) and provides an East-West route across the region to Walvis Bay. It also forms a major connector between Eastern Botswana, where the bulk of the population lives, and Western Botswana. A new railway is proposed to connect the Port of Walvis Bay to the Gauteng region in South Africa, to carry containers and new vehicles from Gauteng and coal from Botswana. 2 More detail is provided in the Country Profiles in Annex A, Volume 2. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 7 Figure 2.1. The main trade corridors of the region Source: World Bank. The TKC is one of the three Walvis Bay Corridors. The Walvis Bay Corridors include the Trans Caprivi Corridor (TCC) which at 2,038 km (about 1,275 mil) in length provides an alternative from the Copper Belt in DRC and Zambia, and Zimbabwe and Malawi, to the port of Walvis Bay. The Trans Kunene Corridor (TKuC) forms part of the corridor from Cape Town through Namibia to Angola Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 8 (1713 km CT to WB, about 1070 mil). A rail line also exists from Cape Town to the Angolan border. When Angolan ports were first being rehabilitated following the Civil War, much of the Angolan cargo used the port of Walvis Bay and transited overland as far as Luanda. Now most goods for northern Angola use Angolan ports, but Walvis Bay remains relevant as an access port for southern Angola. The Lobito Corridor: The Lobito Corridor (otherwise known as the Benguela Railway corridor and operated by the Caminho de Ferro de Benguela (CFB)) extends 1344 km (about 844 mil). It connects the Port of Lobito in Angola with Luau on the DRC border, where it links to SNCC, the national railway of the DRC. A dry port and logistics center are planned at Luau. The Benguela rail renovation project, which was financed by the Chinese government, was completed in 2014. The Benguela rail line serves as a popular route for the conveyance of copper and cobalt between the DRC and Angola. This strategic rail route can be accessed by several large mines in the DRC. Plans are underway to connect the Benguela line with railway networks in the DRC and Zambia to better serve the copper and cobalt mines in the DRC, Zambia, and Angola. The EN250 road also links Lobito and Luau (1200 km, 750 mil) but it is not direct, and there is no information on the quality. To directly link the Lobito corridor to Zambia without transiting through the DRC, additional rail infrastructure investments on both sides of the border is required. The link from Luacano to the Angola / Zambia border town of Jimpe would require the construction of 270 km of railway lines (see the dotted line Figure 2.1.). Additionally, on the Zambian side, the section from Jimpe to Chililabombwe where the Zambian Railways currently stops is approximately 460 km long. Altogether, if the two governments were to agree on this route, 730 km of new rail line would need to be built. The estimated cost exceeds $3.6-7.5 billion.3 In July 2022, the Angolan Government signed a 30-year FBOT concession with a consortium of Trafigura, Mota-Engil Engineering and Construction Africa, and Vecturis, Belgium, to operate rail services and offer logistical support for the Lobito corridor. The three Member States of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) signed the Lobito Corridor Transit Transport Facilitation Agency (LCTTFA) Agreement on 27 January 2024, following negotiations that began 2013. The signatories — Angola, Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) and Zambia — have agreed to fund the establishment of a secretariat and all institutional organs, to promote infrastructure development along the corridor and ensure that such developments support the present and future needs of users, as well as reducing costs for the movement of cargo and passengers. The Maputo Corridor connects the port of Maputo in Mozambique to Gauteng, the industrial heartland of South Africa. It is widely acknowledged as one of the most important examples of contemporary bilateral cooperation between Mozambique and South Africa. The MC route connects the landlocked Gauteng, Mpumalanga, and Limpopo provinces to the port of Maputo in Mozambique. This corridor is a major import/export route that connect the north-east provinces of South Africa with the capital and main port of Mozambique, while also serving Swaziland and southwest Mozambique. The main road on the South African side of the MDC is the N4, a two- to four-lane national toll road. The N4 highway was the first major infrastructure project completed under the MDC agreement. In Mozambique, the N4 becomes the EN4 after crossing the border, and progresses to Maputo. Study estimates of US$5-10 mill per line kilometer for new build on a greenfield alignment. 3 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 9 The N4 and EN4 were completed in 2004 and are operated by TRAC, which is responsible for building, operating, and maintaining the road network under a Design-Build-Operate-Transfer (DBOT) agreement until 2028. The project was implemented as a PPP using the DBOT structure. It reached financial closure in 1997 and began operations in 2000. The total capital investment at the time was US$330 million, with a total construction and operating period of 30 years. The project was funded 100percent with project finance, with a breakdown of 20percent equity and 80percent debt finance primarily from South African banks. The Caminhos de Ferro de Moçambique (CFM) links the port of Maputo with the TFR network in South Africa, meeting at the border crossing point of Ressano Garcia. In terms of the physical infrastructure, the Maputo to Ressano Garcia line is 88 km long, and is double tracked for 68 km, with around 20 km to be upgraded. CFM is proposing to extend the LTE network including the mast/antenna infrastructure to the entire CFM rail network, pending available financial resources. There remains an issue in relation to the rail access to all the bulk terminals in the port, which will need to be upgraded as the port expands. CFM also has shortages of bulk and flatbed wagons, and locomotives. These are needed to facilitate the diversion of cargo currently carried on road to rail and increase the share of bulk being carried by rail from 20 percent currently. The Beira Corridor. Also called the Central Corridor, it connects the port of Beira to major towns in Central Mozambique, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. Some of the major towns within this corridor include Chimoio, Mutare, and Harare. The route from Southern Zambia through Harare to Beira is a major trade route for the transportation of Zambian and Zimbabwean goods between major towns and the Beira Port. The central rail system is part of the Beira Corridor. The system has two mainlines: the Machipanda Line, which extends from Machipanda to the Zimbabwe border (approximately 320 km), operated by CFM; and the Sena Line (335 km), from Dondo to Nsanje at the Malawi border and continuing to the Tete province, operated by CFM, Jindal, and ICVL. The port of Beira is connected by road via the Machipanda border crossing point to the border with Zambia. The Nacala Corridor. The Nacala Corridor (622km, about 389 mil) connects Nacala Port to several major towns in the regions of Northern Mozambique, Malawi, and Zambia by rail. Some of the major towns connected by this corridor include Nampula, Liwonde, Lilonge, Chipata, and Lusaka. This Corridor has been a very important route for the transportation of coal from the Tete province of Mozambique, primarily by rail, with services provided by CFM Norte, and also by the CFM Centro service (the Sena line) to Beira. The spur of the railway line to Lichinga on the eastern side of Lake Malawi is moribund. 2.2.1. The Maritime Gateways There are six maritime gateways anchoring the regional trade corridors of the region: Dar es Salaam, Nacala, Beira, Maputo, Durban, Walvis Bay, and Lobito, as illustrated in Figure 2.1. A concise description of each port, and the activities of each, is presented below.4 This is accompanied by an indication of volumes by commodity, whether the private sector is involved in the port, and comparative efficiency. (More detail on each is provided in Annex A, Volume 2 in the Country Profiles.) Dar es Salaam port, Tanzania. The port of Dar es Salaam is on the Indian Ocean coast in the center of Tanzania. It is the most important port of Tanzania, as it handles about 95 percent of the 4 For more detail see The World Bank, 2018. “Port Development and Competition in East and Southern Africa: Prospects and Challenges – Volume II.” World Bank, Washington, DC. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 10 country’s international trade. The port has a large hinterland which includes the landlocked countries of Burundi, Rwanda, Malawi, Zambia, Uganda, and the DRC. As a result, transit volumes represent approximately 35 percent of the total cargo throughput in the port of Dar es Salaam. Tanzania Ports Authority (TPA) operates as the authority in Dar es Salaam and was the terminal operator on berths 1-7. Recent reports suggest berths 5-7 have been concessioned to Dubai Ports, who are also operating berths 1-4 jointly with TPA. The container terminal on berths 8-11 was operated by the Tanzania International Container Terminal Services (TICTS). TICTS was 70 percent owned by Hutchison Port Holdings, with Harbors Investment Ltd. of Tanzania holding 30 percent. TICTS was awarded a 10-year concession in 2000 to operate the Dar es Salaam container terminal, which was extended to 22 years in 2005. In 2017, the contract was renegotiated to increase and index the annual lease fee in 2018. The Ubungo inland container depot reverted to TPA as part of the renegotiations. The concession contract expired in 2022, and TPA have since taken over the operations of the container terminal (1 January 2023). Port of Nacala, Mozambique. A regional port located in the Nampula province in the north of Mozambique, it is one of the largest natural deep-water ports on the east coast of Africa. The port has no restrictions in terms of ship movement or ship size, and is the gateway for the Nacala Corridor. The first phase of a major rehabilitation project was completed in September 2015, which consisted of repairing berths 3 and 4, upgrading the liquid bulk terminal, and upgrading container operations with Rubber Tired Gantry Cranes (RTGs). The second phase started in 2017 and comprised the extension of a dedicated container berth, the installation of two Ship-to-Shore (STS) gantry cranes, and six additional RTGs. Other developments include the construction of a new coal handling port, situated across from the port of Nacala, fully dedicated to the export of coal to markets in Asia, Europe, and Brazil. This port falls outside the concession granted to Portos do Norte. The port of Nacala, and the connecting railway line, are concessioned to Corredor de Desenvolvimento do Norte (CDN). However, a management contract was signed on the 15 March 2013, transferring management of the port and railway line to Portos do Norte SA. CDN retains management and operations of pilotage, berthing operations, and general cargo operations. Portos e Caminhos de Ferro de Moçambique (Ports and Railways of Mozambique) operates the liquid bulk terminal, whereas Vale owns and operates the coal terminal opposite the port of Nacala. Port of Beira, Mozambique. A regional port located on the mouth of the Pungue River. With is strategic central location in Mozambique, Beira has a large hinterland comprising of Zimbabwe, Malawi, and Zambia. Beira is the second largest port in Mozambique, after the port of Maputo. It is connected with its hinterland via the Beira Agricultural Growth Corridor, which aims at promoting increased investment in commercial agriculture and agribusiness. Beira formerly served as the transport hub for the export of coal from Mozambique’s Tete province. However, the construction of the railway by Vale between Tete province and the port of Nacala meant that this role diminished significantly. The port also suffers from limited draught due to heavy siltation and shifting sandbanks, making it difficult for larger vessels to enter the port. Prior to building the new line, to get around the constraints, Vale had two barges made specifically for the coal exports. These would transport the coal to a larger (Panamax) vessel waiting at anchorage outside the port. CFM manages the port of Beira. Cornelder de Moçambique (CdM), a joint venture between CFM (33 percent) and Cornelder Holdings BV (67 percent), was granted a 25-year concession in 1998 to operate the container and general cargo terminals in the port of Beira. CFM has retained operational management of the liquid bulk terminal in the port, while the fishery port on berth 1 also falls outside of the responsibilities of CdM. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 11 Maputo, Mozambique. A regional port located in the southern part of Mozambique, 120 km (about 74.56 mi) from the South African border. It is the largest port of Mozambique, while the city of Maputo is the capital and most populous city of the country. The port has two main terminals: the Maputo Cargo Terminals, which includes the container terminal; and the Matola Bulk Terminals, which is situated 6km further upstream in Maputo Bay and includes a coal-, grain-, and aluminum terminal. Transit cargo handled by the port is destined for South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe. The port has experienced a large growth in recent years, with volumes increasing from some 19 million tons in 2014 to a reported 27 million tons in 2022. This growth is primarily bulk exports from South Africa, in the form of chrome, manganese, coal, and some containers. The port of Maputo is managed by the Maputo Port Development Company (MPDC), a Mozambican registered joint venture. The company consists of the Mozambican Ports and Railways Authority (CFM; 49 percent stake) and Portus Indico (51 percent), which itself is a combination of Dubai Ports World (48.5 percent of Portus Indico), Grindrod (48.5 percent), and local company Mozambique Gestores (3 percent). MPDC has a master-concession that runs until 2033, with a possible 10-year extension until 2043. Under the master-concession, MPDC either operates terminals themselves, or increasingly manages terminals under sub-concession arrangements. Durban, South Africa. This is a key gateway port and transshipment hub, located along the east coast of South Africa. It is the country’s main general cargo port and its premier container port, and the largest container port in sub-Saharan Africa. Only Port Said in Egypt and Tangier Med in Morocco are larger on the continent. The port is the principal port serving the KwaZulu-Natal province and the Gauteng region (Johannesburg), as well as the southern African hinterland. It is the leading port in the SADC region and is strategically positioned along the global shipping routes. The port also plays a significant role in the transport and logistics chain, with 65 percent of all South Africa’s containers and liquid bulks passing through the port. Transnet National Ports Authority is the port authority of the major ports of South Africa. Transport Port Terminals operates most of the terminals in Durban, including the Durban Container Terminal (DCT), although an RFQ was issued in 2022 for private partner for DCT2, with negotiations ongoing. Furthermore, Grindrod operates a multipurpose terminal, and Vopak and the Montfort group each have a liquid bulk terminal in the port. Walvis Bay, Namibia. It serves as a gateway port, linking some of southern Africa’s major trading regions to international markets. The port is strategically located on the western African coastline in the center of Namibia, connected to its hinterland by the Trans-Kalahari Corridor, the Trans-Caprivi Corridor, the Trans-Cunene Corridor, and the Trans-Oranje Corridor. Via these corridors, the Port of Walvis Bay provides many SADC countries including Botswana, Zimbabwe, Zambia, and the southern part of the DRC with nautical access to the Atlantic. The port handles container imports, exports and transshipments, and bulk and break-bulk volumes of various commodities. The port boasts a throughput capacity of 750,000 TEUs and has the capacity to handle ten million tons of bulk cargo per annum. However, 2023 traffic was a fraction of this capacity. The Port of Walvis Bay faces significant competitive pressure as ports in the region continue to improve and expand. Along the west African coastline, ports such as Pointe Noire and Lomé have improved port facilities and expanded their container handling capacity, allowing these ports to receive 9,200 and 13,000 TEU vessels respectively. In addition, an increasing number of competing ports are preparing to handle large volumes of transshipment containers by dredging access channels, widening turning basins, and expanding container handling capacity on the quay- and land side of their terminals. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 12 Lobito Port, Angola. Lobito lies on the Atlantic coast just north of the Catumbela estuary. Its bay is one of Africa’s finest natural harbours, protected by a three-mile (five km) long sandspit, allowing berths with draughts between 10.5 metres and 17 metres deep. It has four terminals: (i) general cargo terminal; (ii) container terminal; (iii) a bulk terminal; and (iv) a support terminal. It supports the import/export of raw materials and imported fuel products. The port services the central region of Angola, and via the Benguela railway could also connect commodity producers from the Copperbelt in Zambia and DRC with international markets. 2.2.2. The Road Network on the Corridors Table 2.1. below provides a snapshot of the road network size and level by country in the study area. The last column presents the percentage of the primary network per country that is represented by regional corridors. More details on the road network in each country and on the corridors are provided in Annex A, Volume 2. Table 2.1. Network size by level and country Road classification (km) Corridor coverage of Country Primary Secondary Tertiary Total primary network (%) Botswana1 3,961 4,413 11,420 19,794 47 Malawi 3,367 4,473 7,621 15,461 44 Mozambique2 5,869 4,792 18,680 29,341 39 Namibia 5,007 11,357 31,191 47,555 45 South Africa3 22,207 99,030 497,648 618,081 10 Tanzania 12,786 22,214 108,946 143,946 8 Zambia4 3,116 3,116 3,701 33,637 14% Zimbabwe 4,542 20,668 62,923 88,133 55 Notes: 1. Functional classified Public Highway Network (PHN). In addition, there are about 15,000km unclassified roads. 2. In addition to the national and regional network shown in the table, there are another 1,800km of urban roads. 3. There are an additional 131,919km of unproclaimed roads. 4. Core Road Network (CRN); in addition, 27,217 km of road network are non-core. Source: World Bank. 2.2.3. The Rail Network on the Corridors Figure 2.2. illustrates the railways in the region. There are nine corridors, all with Cape Gauge tracks (1067mm), and 16 rail operators (excluding passenger railways in some countries). For example, a train that traverses the entire length of the North-South Corridor from Kolwezi in the DRC to Durban in the RSA, will pass through five countries and encounter infrastructure under the control of five different railways. The Tanzania-Zambia Railway Authority (TAZARA) crosses the Tanzania-Zambia border, and the Nacala railway crosses the borders of Malawi-Mozambique-Zambia. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 13 Figure 2.2. The Railway network in the South and East Africa Source: World Bank IBRD 47273/May 2023. Note: This map was produced by the Cartography Unit of the World Bank Group. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and any other information shown on this map do not imply, on the part of the World Bank Group, any judgment on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. In some countries, the network is split into more than one railway authority (RA). For instance, in Zimbabwe, there are two: National Railways of Zimbabwe (NRZ) and Beitbridge Bulawayo Railway (BBR), an integrated private concession that will operate until 2029, after which the infrastructure will revert to NRZ. In Zambia too, there are two: TAZARA, and Zambia Railways Limited (ZRL). In Angola, there are currently three separate RAs, one for each of the three unconnected railway lines. The Angolan Government, however, has plans to restructure the railway sector. The aim is to create a new unified National Rail Company known as Companhia Ferroviária Nacional, with responsibility for managing and maintaining the entire country’s railway infrastructure. The existing RA for the section of the Lobito Corridor in Angola – Benguela Railways (Caminho de Ferro de Benguela) – will become a train operating company that will pay track access fees alongside other private train operators. At most RA boundaries or at the nearest convenient location, locomotives and rolling stock are inspected to ensure they are in a fit condition to continue their journey. At some borders, a change of traction (locomotives) is necessary, and if unavailable, can lead to long delays. The only two railways where the locomotives are not changed at the border are TAZARA, and the BBR-RA boundary in Bulawayo, where they can operate on the NRZ network to Victoria Falls. These examples - admittedly special cases – indicate how all the railways should operate where physically possible. However, the reality is that countries are reluctant to see their locomotives and wagons run through, as they are often delayed in their return, or never return. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 14 All of the RAs within the SADC region are members of the Southern African Railways Association (SARA), which seeks to ensure cooperation between its members to provide seamless rail services across the region. To improve the interoperability of the SADC rail network, there needs to be regional consent around a common set of standards and processes, particularly for new and upgraded lines. Key standards controlling safety and technical compatibility, such as axle load and train length, are of fundamental importance. Operating capacity is dependent on many factors such as track layout (passing loop spacing and length), operating speed, and train length. Table 2.2. provides an overview of the differing axle loads and train lengths that apply on different sections of the main trading corridor rail lines. Other important requirements for a competitive freight service are reliability and availability. Although operating speed influences the capacity of a system, it is not critical for freight movement, provided a minimum speed that allows efficient locomotive operation is achieved. An average operational speed of approximately 20-30 km/h will be a competitive freight service on most corridors, if it is reliable, and it offers an ability to track the consignment (as many haulers offer). In recent years, progress has been made with the development of a suite of harmonized SADC SARA railway standards. Nine safety and technical standards were launched in March 2020. But, despite earlier initiatives and the potential benefits, an integrated railway remains a chimera. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 15 Table 2.2. Rail corridor axle loads and maximum train length Max. train Axle load Corridor Route length Comment (tons) (wagons) Maputo – Machipanda – 18t Route 1 ** Harare – B’wayo 16.2 to 18.6t Route 2 Maputo – Moatize 20.5t 84 (coal) Beira Under reconstruction at Route 3 Mutarara – Bangula ** ** the time of the study Dar es Salaam – Kapiri Dar es Salaam 18.5t 30 Mposhe Lobito Lobito – Dilolo – Kolwezi 18t 15t 10 Route 1 Maputo – Pretoria 20t ** Maputo Route 2 Maputo – Matsapha ** ** Route 3 Maputo – Gweru 18.5t ** Route 1 Nacala – Moatize 20.5t 42 (GFB) Under repair at Route 2 Nkaya – Chipata ** 25 the time of the study Nacala Confirmation required that axle Route 3 Nkaya – Limbre 15.0t 30 loads have been raised to 18t Kolwezi – Ndola – 15.0t 10 Livingstone 18.0t 30 Route 1 Livingstone – Beitbridge 18.5t 35 North – Durban 20.0t 40 South Route 2 Groenbult – Durban 20t ** Route 3 Bulawayo – Pretoria 18.5t – 20t ** Route 4 Beitbridge – Rutenga 18.5t ** Trans Cunene Walvis Bay – Oshango 18.5t 35–40 Walvis Bay – Trans Caprivi 15.0t – 18.5t 32–35 Grootfontein Walvis Bay – Windhoek 13.5t – 18.5t 35 Trans-Kalahari – Gobabis 13.5t – 16.5t 32–35 Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 16 Despite earlier expenditures, much of the rail infrastructure and rolling stock on the corridor network needs repair and recapitalization. The survey shows the condition of rail corridor infrastructure varies widely from ‘good’ to ‘unfit for traffic’ (see Table 2.3.). Significant variations in condition not only occur between different RAs, but, also within the network of a single RA. Some RAs such as CFB (Caminho de Ferro de Benguela) and TRL have undertaken major rehabilitation projects in recent years, resulting in some of their network being in good to fair condition. Other RAs such as NRZ, TAZARA, and ZRL have significant portions of their infrastructure in a poor condition. Rehabilitation is required to increase capacity closer to its original design intent, to improve reliability and to reduce the number accidents and derailments. A lack of investment in maintenance is a major factor in the poor condition of tracks. Other key components of infrastructure, however, such as train control systems and overhead line electrification systems also contribute to the effective capacity of a line. When such systems are not functioning due to inadequate maintenance, obsolescence, or increasingly in some countries, theft, and vandalism, this further reduces the capacity of a line. Apart from maintenance, some RA’s do not regularly inspect their track using infrastructure measuring vehicles or an ultrasonic rail flaw detection system. One RA last undertook such inspections in 1990. Table 2.3. compares corridor design capacity with recent utilization. Recent utilization levels range from 100 percent (operating at capacity) to as low as 0 percent, where the track is in such poor condition it is unfit for traffic. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 17 Table 2.3. Rail Corridor track condition and utilization for capacity/ Section used thhroughout throughout Comment/ Utilization Condition Capacity Corridor Route Current Design Track Maputo – Good to Route 1 Machipanda – Poor (speed 2.2mtpa 0.23mtpa 10 Harare – B’wayo restrictions) Beira Route 2 Maputo – Moatize Good 18.9mtpa 2.18mtpa 12 Mutarara – Under Route 3 - - - - Bangula reconstruction Dar es Salaam – Dar es Salaam Good to Poor 5mtpa 0.38mtpa 8 Kapiri Mposhe Lobito – Dilolo Good 2.5mtpa (5tpd) 0.12mtpa 5 Lobito V. poor (unfit 2mtpa (4tpd) - 0 Dilolo – Kolwezi for traffic) Current Maputo – Ressano ** 100 Route 1 throughput 7.52mtpa Garcia – Pretoria ** 44 17.0mtpa Maputo Maputo – Route 2 Good 4.7mtpa 0.95mtpa 20 Matsapha Route 3 Maputo – Gweru ** 4.7mtpa 0.41mtpa 9 Moatize – Route 1 Nacala – Moatize ** 18.0mtpa 7.98mtpa 44 Nkaya Nacala Poor (speed Repairs Route 2 Nkaya – Chipata ** 0.31mtpa ** restrictions) underway (combined) Route 3 Nkaya – Limbre Good ** ** Rehabilitated Kolwezi – Good to Ndola Ndola – 0.1mtpa 5 Dangerous 2mtpa 3mtpa Livingstone 0.96mtpa 32 BBR Route 1 Good to Poor (3tpd) 15mtpa Livingstone (1 to 2tpd) 5 Eswatini Good to Poor 14mtpa (8tpd) – Beitbridge – 0.8mtpa 7tpd 88 Good Durban North Groenbult – South Route 2 Good 16mtpa 16mtpa 100 Gauteng Durban Bulawayo Fair 4mtpa 0.52mtpa 13 Route 3 – Plumtree – Good ** ** ** Pitsane – Pretoria ** ** ** ** Beitbridge – Route 4 Fair ** ** ** Rutenga Walvis Bay – Octavi – Trans Cunene Good/Fair 8.9mtpa ** ** Oshango Ondanga Walvis Bay – Octavi – Trans Caprivi Good/Fair 8.0mtpa 0.06mtpa 1 Grootfontein Grootfontein Walvis Bay Good/Fair/ Walvis Bay – Trans-Kalahari – Windhoek – 7.0mtpa 1.66mtpa 24 Poor Krantzburg Gobabis Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 18 Source: World Bank. Several RAs have ambitious plans to develop rail corridors and improve the connectivity of the overall SADC rail network (see Table 2.4.). The status of these plans varies from concept to post construction contract. Several of these plans have been in existence for several years, and were included in the SADC Transport Master Plan 2012, but have not progressed. This is partly explained by the fact that the volume of freight transported by rail is a fraction of the comparable transport by road (90 percent outside South Africa, 70 percent including South Africa). Table 2.4. Rail corridor expansion plans Corridor Location Length of new line Status Detailed feasibility studies Beira Zambia – Zimbabwe 306 km completed 270 km Bankable feasibility study to Lobito Angola – Zambia commence in 2024, with the 460 km support of AIFC. Botswana – Zambia 400 km Feasibility study North South Botswana – South Africa 56 km ** Tanzania – Malawi ** MOU signed Dar es Salaam Construction contract Zambia – Malawi border 389 km awarded Angolan short-term plan Angola 689 km (2023) Trans Cunene Angolan long-term plan Angola – Namibian border 413 km (2029-38) Namibia – feasibility study Trans Caprivi Namibia – Zambia 967 km Zambia – (12) Botswana – funds released for Trans-Kalahari Namibia – Botswana 1500 km feasibility study Source: World Bank. 2.3. The Cost and Travel Time on the Corridors Table 2.5. summarizes and compares the travel times and indicative transport tariffs on road and rail per corridor using an average load of 34 tons. Actual travel times, border crossing time, and average speed on the road mode were sourced from the Logistic Monitoring System (LMS).5 Data on The LMS development was supported by the World Bank and the U.K. Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office as part of 5 the overall program. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 19 freight road transport tariffs were obtained from the transportica website (2020) that calculates freight tariffs between specific nodes for a specific load. The rate given for O-D pairs on the various corridors is for a generic load of 34 tons in 2021. The O-D pair distance and ton load was then used to calculate the tariff per km and ton-km. Travel times, operational speed (including average border delays, both directions, and cost) have been validated by stakeholders. All inputs were collated to calculate an indicative US$/km min and maximum charge, which was then applied to the corridor distance and ton load (see Table 2.5.). The next section presents the current information on the volumes on the road and rail corridors. Table 2.5. Comparative corridor travel times and tariffs per mode (2019) Weighted Average Median Freight rate Corridor Distance travel US$/ US$/ Route Travel (US$) for / Mode (km) speed km ton-km Time 34-ton load (km/h) (days) Dar es Salaam Dar es Salaam Road / Nakonde– 1,948 13.4 6.03 4,101 2.11 0.06 Tunduma / Lusaka Dar es Salaam / Rail 1,860 12.92 6 2,550 1.37 0.04 Kapiri Mposhi Nacala Nacala/Nampula/ Chiponde– Mandimba Border/ Road 1,704 17.59 4.04 3,759 2.21 0.06 Lilongwe/Mwami– Mchinji Border/ Lusaka Nacala/Nyaka/ Rail 1,141 13.08 6.78 1,552 1.36 0.04 Lilongwe/Chipata Beira Beira /Inchope /Forbes– Road Machipanda/ 1,049 17.59 2.48 2,315 2.21 0.06 Harare/Chirundu/ Lusaka Rail Beira /Bulawayo 1,072 13.08 4.99 1,458 1.36 0.04 Maputo Maputo/ Lebombo–R Garcia Road 544 10.30 2.2 1,288 2.37 0.07 Border/Pretoria/ Johannesburg Rail Maputo/Pretoria 548 13.08 3.32 745 1.36 0.04 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 20 Weighted Average Median Freight rate Corridor Distance travel US$/ US$/ Route Travel (US$) for / Mode (km) speed km ton-km Time 34-ton load (km/h) (days) North-South Durban/ Johannesburg / Pretoria/Beit Road Bridge Border/ 2,604 10.2 10.71 6,023 2.31 0.07 Harare/Chirundu Border/Lusaka/ Ndola Durban/Eswatini/ Rail 2,912 6.87 17.65 3,400 1.17 0.05 Zimbabwe/Ndola Trans-Kalahari Walvis Bay/ Windhoek/ Mamuno–Buitepos Border/Ghanzi/ Road 1,860 16.41 4.72 4,339 2.33 0.07 Pioneer Gate– Skilpadshek Border/Pretoria/ Johannesburg Walvis Bay/ Rail 644 13.08 3.63 876 1.36 0.04 Gobabis Trans-Caprivi Walvis Bay / Road Sesheke Border/ 2,041 16.41 5.2 4,389 2.15 0.06 Lusaka Walvis Bay / Rail 626 13.08 1.99 851 1.36 0.04 Grootfontein Trans-Cunene Walvis Bay /Otavi/ Oshikango–Santa Road 2,028 16.41 5.15 2,945 1.45 0.04 Clara Border/ Luanda Walvis Bay/ Rail 906 13.08 2.89 1,232 1.36 0.04 Oshikango Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 21 2.4. The Road Traffic on the Corridors in 2019 The 2019 weighted average annual daily traffic (AADT) as well as the percentage of heavy vehicles on the relevant corridors and countries is shown in Figure 2.3. and Figure 2.4. Figure 2.3. AADT and percentage of heavy vehicles per corridor, 2019 Weighted average AADT and % heavy vechicles per corridor 16,000 40% 14,000 35% 12,000 30% 10,000 25% 8,000 20% 6,000 15% 4,000 10% 2,000 5% 0 0 North Trans Maputo Dar es Nacala Beira Trans Trans South Kalahari Salaam Caprivi Kunene AADT %HV Source: World Bank. The Maputo corridor has the highest traffic levels, and the highest level of truck traffic, reflecting the conveyance of bulk (primarily manganese) from South Africa to the port of Maputo. The Dar es Salaam corridor has the highest share of heavy vehicle traffic. The share of heavy vehicles by volume varies between 17 and 35 percent while volumes vary between 1774 to 14778 vehicles per day. Figure 2.4. AADT and percentage of heavy vehicles per corridor, 2019 Weighted average AADT and % heavy vechicles per corridor 25,000 50% 20,000 40% 15,000 30% 10,000 20% 5,000 10% 0 0% Botswana Malawi Mozambique Namibia South Africa Tanzania Zambia Zimbabwe AADT %HV Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 22 South Africa has the highest traffic volume, as two of the busiest corridors (Maputo and North-South) transverse the country. The percentage of heavy vehicles varies between 16 percent in South Africa and 43 percent in Tanzania. Figure 2.5. presents an illustration of the Average Annual Daily Truck Traffic (AADTT) along the corridors in the base year of 2019. Figure 2.5. AADTT modelled volumes for road network, 2019 Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 23 Figure 2.6. illustrates the modelled volumes in terms of tons carried on the rail network in 2019. Figure 2.6. Modelled rail volumes in 2019, MTPA Source: World Bank. 2.5. The Border Crossing Points The LMS for Southern and Eastern Africa provides reports and indicators measuring border crossing and route trucking time for several corridors in the region. The indicators are based on GPS positioning data obtained from the trucking companies and/or GPS fleet management service providers. Data obtained from this system was used to describe the crossing time per border post, and the truck travel time per corridor, for the model’s base year of 2019. This is summarised in Table 2.6. (border crossing time shown in hours per border post, weighted per volume of vehicles, and direction to/from the nearest port). Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 24 Table 2.6. Border post crossing times per direction – weighted median hours (2019, unless indicated) Corridor Border post From Port (import) To Port (export) Forbes/ Mozambique – Zimbabwe – Beira (2022) 20.0 9.0 Machipanda Border Zimbabwe Mozambique Beira/NSC Zimbabwe – Chirundu OSBP 21.0 Zambia – Zimbabwe 13.0 (2022) Zambia Kasumulu/ DES (2022) Tanzania – Malawi 1.0 Malawi – Tanzania 1.0 Songwe Border Nakonde/ DES (2022) Tanzania – Zambia 4.0 Zambia – Tanzania 3.0 Tunduma OSBP Lebombo/ Maputo (2022) Mozambique – SA 3.5 SA – Mozambique 9.0 R Garcia Border Chiponde/ Mozambique – Nacala (2022) 9.0 Malawi – Mozambique 1.0 Mandimba Border Malawi Milange/ Mozambique – Nacala 12.4 Malawi – Mozambique 8.3 Muloza Border Malawi Mwami/ Nacala (2022) Malawi – Zambia 13.5 Zambia – Malawi 9.7 Mchinji Border NSC (2022) Beitbridge Border SA – Zimbabwe 29.0 Zimbabwe – SA 16.0 Martins Drift/ NSC SA – Botswana 20.1 Botswana – SA 1.6 Groblersburg Border Botswana – NSC Kazangula Border 25.8 Zambia – Botswana 21.8 Zambia Plumtree/ Botswana – Zimbabwe – NSC 18.1 3.0 Ramokgwebane Border Zimbabwe Botswana Victoria Falls/ Zimbabwe – NSC 34.7 Zambia – Zimbabwe 12.0 Livingstone Border Zambia NSC/ T Caprivi Kasumbalesa Border Zambia – DRC 45.6 DRC – Zambia 25.4 Oshikango/ T Cunene Namibia – Angola 33.9 Angola – Namibia 2.4 Sant Clara Border Namibia – T Kalahari Mamuno Border 1.7 Botswana – Namibia 2.3 Botswana TKC/NSC Pioneer Gate/ SA – Botswana 4.2 Botswana – SA 2.5 (2022) Skilpadshek Border Source: Crickmay Associates, 2019 and 2023. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 25 2.6. Regional Transport GHG emissions The transport sector is responsible for a quarter of the world’s energy-related GHG emissions (Sims et al., 2014). Road transport has been responsible for 80 percent of global transport’s emissions increase since 1970 (Sims et al., 2014). If unmitigated, it is projected that transport will account for over 60 percent of permissible emissions in 2050, more than double its contribution of 7 billion tons of CO2 in 2010 (Sims et al., 2014; McKinnon, 2016). The emissions from this sector increased by 45 percent between 1990 and 2007 (Alhindawi et al., 2020). Freight road transport is growing internationally. Its ability to transport economic goods between cities and towns reliably and fast makes its market share grow over other modes of transport. Freight transport relies heavily on fossil fuels, with 90 percent of freight in Africa being carried by road transport (70 percent including South Africa). Freight volumes in Africa are projected to increase by over 700 percent between 2010 and 2050, with related emissions growing by similar margins (ITF, 2015). It is projected that the share of freight to global GHG transport emissions will grow from 42 percent to 60 percent by 2050 (McKinnon, 2016). Trade-related freight transport emissions are projected to increase from 2100 million tons in 2010 to over 8000 million tons in 2050 under baseline conditions (ITF, 2015). It is estimated that road freight emissions will represent 56 percent of global trade-related emissions in 2050, up from 53 percent in 2010 (ITF, 2015). The objective of this section is to establish the baseline of freight related GHG emissions on the trade corridors of Southern Africa considered in this study. 2.6.1. Road GHG emissions in Southern Africa Greenhouse gas emissions from the transport sector in Southern Africa are increasing rapidly. As a result of limited, and in some countries declining, use of low emission modes such as rail transport, emissions from road freight in the region are exceeding GDP growth. The reporting of GHG emissions by the Southern Africa countries varies by country. Some countries have published annual information from 2000 to 2015 (i.e., South Africa) while other countries report one year of data (i.e., Mozambique, 1994). With few published peer reviewed studies on GHG emissions in the region, information is largely obtained from various periodic national reports to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and other ad-hoc reports. Details of the reported emissions and their consistency differ by countries, making comparisons of emissions difficult, and worthy of separate study. Generally, road transportation causes the highest emissions due to logistical corporations. Compared with operations, supply chain systems account for nearly 80 percent of GHG emissions of the corporation (Barloworld, n.d.). There are several supply chain freight corporations that operate across many countries in southern Africa. They operate in different environments and road conditions. Some of these corporations detail their emissions through annual sustainability reports. Depending on their scales of operation, these freight operations can produce around 100 thousand tons of CO2 emissions annually. Based on their total emissions from diesel and petrol consumptions, their emissions per kilometer travelled range from 0.52 to 6.98 kgCO2 per km (0.52 kgCO2 km-1 for Value logistics, 1.11 kgCO2 km-1 for Imperial’s Logistics Africa and 6.98 kgCO2 km-1 for Super Group logistics). Road vehicles operating in southern Africa travel on roads with conditions varying from good to very poor (Table 2.7.). Road alignment also plays an important role in the quantity of emissions from the road sector. Depending on the state of the road, a heavy truck can produce emissions from 1,700 gCO2 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 26 per vehicle-kilometer to about 2,600 gCO2 per vehicle-kilometer. In South Africa where 377,000 trucks (GVM >3500km) in 2018, each travelling an average of 40,000 km a year, their emissions can vary from 25 million tons to 39 million tons a year. Without considering road conditions and landscape, about 320,000 trucks produced nearly 13 million tons in 2009 (Tongwane et al., 2015). Table 2.7. Road transport average emission intensities by road characteristics (gCO2 (vehicle-km)-1) Toll Class 1-Light Vehicle Good Fair Poor Very Poor Flat 255.81 257.29 243.85 220.32 Rolling 251.96 253.68 241.77 220.85 Mountainous 242.19 244.77 243.56 231.95 Toll Class 2-2 Axle Heavy Vehicles Good Fair Poor Very Poor Flat 643.4 650.18 622.33 560.92 Rolling 609.32 617.8 602.46 556.8 Mountainous 681.56 686.73 691.73 697.34 Toll Class 3-3 to 4 Axle Heavy Vehicles Good Fair Poor Very Poor Flat 1560.12 1557.07 1331.65 1149.16 Rolling 1372.55 1390.01 1306.69 1156.13 Mountainous 1365.14 1376.24 1384.15 1384.82 Toll Class 4-5 and 5+ Axle Vehicles Good Fair Poor Very Poor Flat 1883.71 1919.54 1816.44 1737.72 Rolling 1751.39 1794.03 1795.76 1793.29 Mountainous 2489.18 2515.9 2543.33 2594.9 Source: World Bank. The North-South Corridor from Durban, exiting South Africa into Zimbabwe at Musina (N3 & N1 major roads) stretches approximately 1200 km on the South African side. It is a major corridor that links several southern Africa countries to the port of Durban. Truck densities between Durban-Gauteng and Gauteng-Musina routes differ, but can be assumed to be at least 5,000 a day (DoT, 2016). Assuming the overall corridor is good and flat (except the mountainous section on the Durban end), trucks in this corridor can produce about 10500 mts of CO2 per day (or 3.8 million mt per year). This represents about 25 percent of national truck emissions in South Africa. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 27 2.6.2. Potential mitigation measures in freight transport Imperial Logistics, owned by DP World, is primarily based in South Africa. It is a trucking company that operates in many SADC countries and undertakes 500 million vehicle kilometres per annum (Imperial, 2020). They are replacing their (Euro 3) fleet with modern technology trucks (Euro 5 and Euro 6) and have achieved reduced fuel consumption of between 3 to 8 percent, (depending on operation and payload) and CO2 emissions by 3.4percent. However, sales and deliveries of these trucks are lacking more broadly in Africa. New medium and HDVs can achieve reduction in energy intensity of 30 to 50 percent (Sims et al., 2014). Outside South Africa, the truck fleet, for the most part, does not even operate at Euro 3 level. Decarbonization of road transport can also be achieved through infrastructure improvement and modal shifts (Goedhals-Gerber et al., 2018). Rail is more energy efficient than road, and it provides a good GHG mitigation option. Road transport is the main source of emissions due to its emission intensity and numbers of vehicles on the roads. While freight emission intensity in South Africa was 0.107 kg per t-km for road transport, the intensity for rail was 0.03 kg per t-km (WWF, 2013). Global road CO2 average intensity is 0.12 kgCO2 per t-km (Llano et al., 2018). A shift from fossil-based vehicles to electric vehicles has the potential to decrease transportation emissions by up to 62 percent by 2060 (Alhindawi et al., 2020). Although this shift is widely encouraged globally, its adoption in Africa is slow, and constrained mainly by infrastructure limitations and unaffordability of the technology. Despite rapid growth of battery charging stations in Europe, North America and Asia, there are still few such facilities in Africa. Of the 7.2 million electric vehicles (264000 charging stations) in the world in 2019, there were only 1200 vehicles (133 charging stations) in South Africa (IEA, 2020). Electric trucks account for a small number of these statistics due to current limitations of battery power and charging time. There are no current reports of these technologies in other countries of Africa. An integrated approach is required to improve the efficiency of freight heavy trucks. It needs to consider emissions labelling of the trucks, standard setting for the emissions, and fiscal measures such as carbon tax, tax incentives and fuel taxes (ITF, 2015). Most modern medium-sized trucks and HDVs in the developed world already have efficient diesel engines (up to 45 percent thermal efficiency), and long-haul trucks often have streamlined spoilers on their cabs to reduce drag (Sims et al., 2014). 2.6.3. Limitations to mitigation activities Although freight transport over long distances can be cheaper when rail or inland water system is used over the road more, there are structural factors that hamper its applicability (Bouraima et al., 2020). There is limited rail infrastructure linking industrial hubs and major cities in many countries, and the existing rail is often in poor condition, leading to slow and unreliable services. This provides an incentive to use road transport. In addition, it is more flexible and can move within and between cities easily. Secondly, the unavailability (or limited supply) of 50 ppm diesel and limitations in the quality and provision of infrastructure, and human capacity constraints, constrain the use of Euro 5 trucks (Imperial, 2020). Even South Africa’s current fuel specifications only comply with Euro 2 standards (Super Group, 2019). Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 28 2.7. Conclusions and Recommendations Despite the importance of transport to competitiveness and the overwhelming need to reduce logistic costs, transport and trade infrastructure (and transport services in the public domain) in the region remain sub-optimal. While there have been some improvements in the infrastructure on many of the key trading corridors across the Southern Africa region, they remain suboptimal, with missing links, limited inter-modality, poorly performing nodes and border crossings, and congestion around many cities and ports on the key corridors and on key sections of the road and rail network. Furthermore, there is a generic problem of inadequate maintenance, due to insufficient recurrent expenditure (an issue discussed further in a later section) and increasing problems of theft, vandalism, and neglect on the railways in some corridors. The lack of integrated and harmonized transport regulation leads to large inefficiencies in intra-regional trade. As a result, only 12 percent of Africa’s imported intermediate products are sourced within the region. Finally, the BCPs create significant cost and time penalties. Their performanceis years behind the Northern or Central Corridors, with limited trade facilitation (discussed in more detail in the next chapter). As freight volumes continue to grow significantly to 2050, emissions are expected to grow in a similar manner, unless significant mitigation efforts are put in place. These include reducing idling times, improving the railway network reliability, capacity, and competitiveness, and incentivizing significant model switch. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 29 References Alhindawi, R., Abu Nahleh, Y., Kumar, A. and Shiwakoti, N., (2020). Projection of greenhouse gas emissions for the road transport sector based on multivariate regression and the double exponential smoothing model. Sustainability, 12(21), 9152. Barloworld, n.d. Supply chain foresight – THE GREEN REVOLUTION – Are South African Supply. Bouraima, M.B., Qiu, Y., Yusupov, B. and Ndjegwes, C.M. (2020). A study on the development strategy of the railway transportation system in the West African Economic and Monetary Union (WAEMU) based on the SWOT/AHP technique. Scientific African, 8, e00388. Deloitte (2020). Mozambique domgas – Gas in road transport: driving us forward. Deloitte. Johannesburg, South Africa. Department of Transport (2017). Chapter 6: Transport infrastructure. Department of Transport. Pretoria, South Africa. Goedhals-Gerber, L., Freiboth, H. and Havenga, J. (2018). The decarbonization of transport logistics: A South African case study. Southern African Business Review, 22(1). International Energy Agency (2020). Global EV outlook 2020 – Entering the decade of electric drive. International Energy Agency. Paris, France. Imperial (2020). Environmental, Social and Governance Report 2020. Imperial Logistics. Bedfordview, South Africa. ITF (2015). The carbon footprint of global trade. International Transport Forum. Paris, France. Llano, C., Pérez-Balsalobre, S., & Pérez-García, J. (2018). Greenhouse gas emissions from intra- national freight transport: Measurement and scenarios for greater sustainability in Spain. Sustainability, 10(7), 2467. Maritime Gateway (2023). APSEZ To Operate Berths at Dar Es Salaam Port. Available at: https:// www.maritimegateway.com/apsez-to-operate-berths-at-dar-es-salaam-port/. Last accessed [2023/06/10]. McKinnon, A. (2016). Freight transport in a low-carbon world: Assessing opportunities for cutting emissions. TR News, (306). Renergen (2019). Second CNG filling station commissioned in Johannesburg. Renergen Limited. Johannesburg, South Africa. Southern African Development Community (2012). Regional Infrastructure Development Master Plan: Transport Sector Plan. August 2012. Available at: https://www.sadc.int/sites/default/ files/2021-08/Regional_Infrastructure_Development_Master_Plan_Transport_Sector_Plan.pdf. Sims R., R. Schaeffer, F. Creutzig, X. Cruz-Núñez, M. D’Agosto, D. Dimitriu, M. J. Figueroa Meza, L. Fulton, S. Kobayashi, O. Lah, A. McKinnon, P. Newman, M. Ouyang, J. J. Schauer, D. Sperling, and G. Tiwari, (2014). Transport. In: Climate Change 2014: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 30 of Working Group III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Super Group (2019). Sustainability Report for the year ended 30 June 2019. Super Group. Johannesburg, South Africa. Tongwane, M., Piketh, S., Stevens, L. and Ramotubei, T. (2015). Greenhouse gas emissions from road transport in South Africa and Lesotho between 2000 and 2009. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 37, 1-13. Transportica. Road Freight Transportation Platform. Available at: https://transportica.com/. WWF (2013). Low carbon frameworks: Transport – Understanding Freight emissions. Worldwide Fund for Nature. Johannesburg, South Africa. Chapter 3 The Regional Africa Freight Model and the Demand Forecasts Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 32 3.1. Introduction This section provides information on both the traffic demand forecasts, and the methodology that underpins them. More specifically, this chapter presents an overview of the development of the Regional Africa Freight Model (RAFM), the current transport network and validated base flows (2019), together with the indicative 2050 scenario results. This section also describes the methodology that underpins the unique regional transport model, including data sources. The conceptual stages of the development of a transport model are shown in Figure 3.1. Figure 3.1. Freight transport model development process 05 04 03 Assi nm nt of C libr tion nd v lid tion 02 D v lopin initi l trips on tr nsport tion n tworks (trip d m nd m tric s Codin of 01 D finin onin (trip n r tion & distribution) ssi nm nt) structur stud r tr nsport tion n tworks Source: World Bank. 3.2. Transport network and travel times The baseline transport network used in the modelling exercise is largely based on the network in OpenStreetMap (OSM), an online geographic information (VGI) platform. OSM provides worldwide free geospatial data, representing a variety of features. The linear spatial dataset from OSM was cleaned and validated to improve its integrity and suitability for use in modelling. Aerial photography was used extensively to correct the alignment of most of the linear network spatially.6 In addition to considering the road and rail lines from OSM, pipelines, border crossing points, ports and port-port routes were included. The secondary and tertiary road network was included, where necessary, to ensure connectivity, particularly where alternative routes were prominent. For identification, the linear feature needed to follow the centreline of that same feature on an aerial photograph. After 6 identification, a link was defined as a line with the same name, class, traffic usage, and condition. Link splitting occurred where: major cities or border posts and ports were identified; where the name changed; at an intersection. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 33 Validation of modelled travel times is an integral aspect of transport modelling. As travel times determine the operational costs of each route and transport mode, it is important to confirm that the model can replicate actual travel times on short and longer distance trips, especially considering the extent of the modelled area and the primary mode (heavy vehicles) that was the focus of the model. The transport routing algorithm was based on Wardrop’s first principle: “Every road user selects his route in such a way that the travel time on all alternative routes is the same, and that switching to a different route would increase personal travel time”. Incorrect travel times in the model would thus result in inaccurate selection of travel routes, which reduces the usefulness of the model. The sources used for travel time validation were OSM speed data, the LMS, and Google car floating data. The original source for the modelled network’s free flow speed for heavy vehicles was OSM. OSM’s free flow speed was iteratively adjusted to ensure that the model accurately replicated travel times on short- and long-distance journeys in the modelled area. This was necessary because travel speed has a direct impact on the model’s path choice and impedance models, which in turn influences the modelled volumes, the level of congestion, as well as travel speeds on the network. The LMS measured border crossing time in hours per border post, weighted by volume of vehicles, and for travelling to and from the nearest port. The indicators are based on GPS positioning data obtained from trucking companies, or fleet management service providers. The data was obtained for the model’s base year, 2019. The results are summarized earlier (Tables 2.5. and 2.6.). The freight model’s ability to replicate accurate travel times on the modelled road network during a typical day was evaluated with online floating car data available for the modelled area. Google’s travel time data was accessed via the Google API by using a tool developed by Tolplan Pty Ltd. The tool considered the modelled area’s zone centroids, gateway zones, and calculated the average travel times between the zones from Google’s floating car dataset. A regression analysis was done on the observed versus modelled travel times of the largest origin-destination pairs in the model. The model is currently overestimating the travel times, which is considered conservative. This is indicated by the steeper slope of the red line in Figure 3.2., which compares the modelled and observed travel times, the blue line. The regression analysis indicates that the model can explain 96.76 percent of the variance between the modelled and observed travel times. Roads will likely be shared by more transport modes and users than are present in the model, slowing traffic down. The regression analysis confirms that the model replicates travel times at an acceptable level of accuracy. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 34 Figure 3.2. Observed (Google floating car data) versus travel times from the freight transport model 6000 5000 224 Goo l FCD Tr v l tim s 4000 3000 2000 1000 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 229 Visum tr v l tim s Di on l R r ssion lin 1.3223 * X + 4.0267 r2- . 0.9676 n; 4761 Source: World Bank. 3.3. Road, Rail, and Port Volumes A review of roads and railways infrastructure within the study area was undertaken. Information on road traffic and rail freight volumes for 2019 was also collected. These volumes (specifically the heavy vehicle volumes) were used for the calibration of the transport model. The road traffic volumes per vehicle class were sourced from the individual countries’ road authorities and were provided for the main corridors traversing the country, per road segment. In addition to the use of three heavy vehicle classes (2-axle, 3 to 4-axle, and 5 to 5+axle), light vehicle volumes were also considered. The light vehicle volumes were introduced into the model as a direct base assignment to ensure that their capacity uptake on the road network’s operation is modelled. Rail freight volumes are presented in Table 3.1. These were used for the calibration of the freight transport model’s modelled rail freight volumes. They were sourced from rail authority websites and existing studies on rail freight corridors in the region. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 35 Table 3.1. Rail corridor routes – 2019 rail freight throughput volumes 2019 throughput Corridor Route No. Route (MTPA) Route 1 Maputo – Machipanda – Harare – B’wayo 0.23 Beira Route 2 Beira – Moatize 2.18 Route 3 Mutarara – Bangula Under construction Dar es Salaam Dar es Salaam – Kapiri Mposhi 0.38 Lobito – Dilolo 0.12 Lobito Dilolo – Kolwezi 0 Maputo – Ressano Garcia 7.52 Route 1 Kaapmuiden – Pretoria 5 Maputo Komatipoort – Pretoria 15 Route 2 Maputo – Matsapha 0.96 Route 3 Maputo – Gweru 0.41 Route 1 Nacala – Moatize 7.98 Nacala Route 2 Nkaya – Chipata 0.31 (combined) Route 3 Nkaya – Limbre Kolwezi – Ndola 0.1 Ndola – Livingstone 0.96 Livingstone – Beitbridge 0.8 Route 1 Beitbridge – Groenbult 1.9 Groenbult – Kaapmuiden 11.7 Komatipoort – Richards Bay 8.5 North-South Groenbult – Pretoria 1.9 Route 2 Pretoria – Rietvallei 11 Rietvallei – Durban 10.5 Bulawayo – Plumtree 0.52 Route 3 Plumtree – Pitsane 0.52 Pitsane – Pretoria 0.52 Route 4 Beitbridge – Rutenga Not available Trans Cunene Octavi – Oshango 0.1 – 0.5 Krantzberg – Octavi 0.6 Trans Caprivi Octavi – Grootfontein 0.06 Walvis Bay – Krantzberg 1.66 Trans-Kalahari Krantzberg – Windhoek 0.9 Windhoek – Ondekaremba 0.06 Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 36 Additional primary data was gathered through surveys and used for the validation of the model. The surveys included traffic counts, and origin and destination questionnaires. Surveys were carried out at four locations on the network (all located within Zambia), during November 2021. Travel times were reported in days, not hours, meaning some degree of accuracy was lost. Nonetheless, average travel speeds (mostly between 5 and 20km/h) agree with speeds recorded in the LMS. Port attractiveness was ranked based on processing times, port scores, and the Liner Shipping Connectivity Index (LSCI). The LSCI ranks port connectivity based on scheduled ship calls and regular services, as well as deployed capacity in Twenty-Foot-Equivalent Units (TEUs), among others, and is published by UNCTAD (2022). 3.4. Commodity demand data and zoning structure Different data sources were used to construct the Regional Africa Freight Model (RAFM). The RAFM was developed by combining the regional model of African freight developed by the University of the Witwatersrand (Wits) Transnet Centre of Systems Engineering (TCSE), and the South Africa National Model. This section discusses the various data sources which contributed to the development of the FTDM, the methodology for cleaning commodity data, and deriving origin-destination matrices. This section describes network speed and time validation methods, the process of vehicle and cargo flow calibration, and mode choice. The RAFM models the freight movement between 17 African countries, as well as the flow between international origins/destinations. Figure 3.3. depicts the RAFM countries, split up into more granular zones along regional boundaries, and ports. The model comprises of 63 internal Regional Africa zones (from 17 countries), and 6 international zones, mapping onto the each of the continents. Figure 3.3. RAFM countries Source: Adapted from RAFM Forecast Inputs Report, August 2021. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 37 Origin-destination matrices in the model are split into agriculture, manufacturing, and mining commodities. The origin-destination matrices were derived using COMTRADE (United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics Database, 2012) and regional input-output tables. Substantial cleaning and evaluation of the data was necessary. A total of 66 commodities were derived from the data and aggregated into the three commodities assigned in the transport model. Within Southern Africa, 15 percent of intra-regional trade was attributable to the agricultural sector, 28 percent to the mining sector, and 56 percent to the manufacturing sector. South Africa itself accounted for 55 percent of all trade. A gravity-based model was used to estimate the distance decay function, which measures the extent to which transport resistance affects trade flows between countries. Overall, the RAFM yields annual freight flow in tons. 3.5. Traffic assignment on the network The assignment of heavy vehicle trips on the transportation networks considered all possible routes, via both road and rail, between the respective origin-destination pairs. The choice between the available routes considered the generalized costs associated with the routes, which is influenced by the following factors: travel time (inclusive of processing times at facilities such as borders and ports), vehicle operating cost (time cost), and vehicle operating cost (distance cost). Freight trips had the choice to travel either on road or rail, or a combination of both (where possible). The choice of mode (or combination of modes) and route choice was determined by the generalized costs associated with the available options. The generalized costs, the value of time and value of distance components were calibrated to reflect the actual revealed route choice preferences of the heavy vehicles. The benchmarks used were the ‘N3 Pietermaritzburg to Durban’, and the ‘N2 Umdloti to Prospecton’ Visum models (Tolplan Pty Ltd., 2016). For the transport model, further transformations into daily vehicle traffic and annual railway tonnage were conducted. Distribution into heavy vehicle types (2-axle, 3 and 4-axle, and 5- and more axle vehicles) was based on long-term counting on certain corridors. The 2015 South African Freight Databank (filtered for traffic on the Maputo North-South and Trans-Kalahari corridors) was used to estimate typical heavy vehicle type distributions for each of the main commodity groups. Table 3.2. shows the split, assumed to be uniform throughout the region. Vehicle volumes are expressed in annualized average daily traffic (AADT), which averages across seasonal fluctuations, daily and weekend traffic, and other factors. Rail and port volumes were expressed in million tons per annum (MTPA). In addition, the South African Freight Databank was used to assume typical payload per vehicle type. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 38 Table 3.2. Key assumptions on vehicle payload and operating costs entering the transport model Assumed Heavy Vehicle Type Distribution (%) Commodity Group 2-Axle 3 to 4-Axle 5 to 5+ Axle Total Agriculture 15 10 75 100 Manufacturing 15 10 75 100 Mining 10 5 85 100 Payload per Heavy Vehicle Type (ton/vehicle) 2-Axle 3 to 4-Axle 5 to 5+ Axle 4.23 15.95 31.79 Assumed Heavy Vehicle Type Distribution Operating Cost Type 2-Axle 3 to 4-Axle 5 to 5+ Axle Fixed cost component (Rand / operating hour) R114.85 R196.65 R276.22 (Value of time component) Variable cost component (Rand / kilometre) R6.17 R12.93 R15.59 (Value of distance component) Passenger Car Unit PCU 1.80 2.75 3.70 Source: World Bank. Finally, in the assignment process, adjustments were made for underutilized vehicles (resulting in a roughly 20 percent increase in volumes) and return trips (50 percent of traffic). To better reflect observed vehicle counts on the road, an additional correction procedure was carried out, without changing the original commodity origin-destination matrices. 3.6. Model results: Year 2019 Maps showing the modelled road and rail volumes are indicated in Figure 2.5. and Figure 2.6. Several observations made from the traffic volumes will be presented in this section. Ports handled approximately 42 percent of all cargo that was transported in the region. The largest throughput was modelled in ports specializing in bulk material. These were coal, exported via Richards Bay (91 MTPA), oil via Cabinda (68 MTPA), and iron ore via Saldanha (63 MTPA). Unsurprisingly, the railway lines with the highest amount of cargo all lead to, or from, ports. The busiest railways were the lines leading to Richards Bay and Saldanha, followed by lines from Pretoria to Maputo and Durban, as well as the Moatize-Nacala railway line carrying coal. As shown in Figure 2.5., the highest volume roads are within DRC and Mozambique. Apart from that, the busiest roads led between Gauteng region (Pretoria, Johannesburg) and Durban, Maputo, and up to the border with Zimbabwe. High-volume roads also include the ones from the Livingstone border to Lusaka and Ndola, between Nakonde and Dar es Salaam, and to Nacala and Beira. High-volume Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 39 roads crossing borders included Komatipoort, between South Africa and Mozambique leading to Maputo, followed by other South African borders, and Kasumbalesa, between DRC and Zambia, due to the copper and chrome industry. 3.6.1. Capacity constraints on the network Several capacity constraints have been identified, particularly in ports. These are based on level-of-service analyses, surveys, and the Review of Transport Network and Services. On roads, these constraints are concentrated in South Africa (on the N3 and N4), and at the border to Botswana via Groblerburg/Martin’s Drift. The border post at Oshikango between Namibia and Angola is also at capacity, as well as the road between Cela and Luanda. Deteriorating conditions were identified on several railway lines, which may impact capacity and use in the future. These include the Lobito Corridor, between Dilolo and Kolwezi, and between Kolwezi and Ndola on the North South Corridor; and the Nacala Corridor, from Nkaya to Chipata; and the Trans-Kalahari Corridor, between Windhoek and Ondekaremba. The Review of Transport Network and Services identified several constraints at the main ports, which are summarized below in Table 3.3. Table 3.3. Identified port capacity constraints Waiting Draught, Equipment Capacity Port times and berths, and and Space on land expansion occupancy channel operations by 2050? Waiting time 220m limit on Yes; high in bulk vessel length, throughput of Beira cargo and and dredging 50 MTPA by container issues 2050 terminals Entrance issues, High container Maputo daylight only Around 2050 handling times entry, and tide restrictions No STS Yes; gantry crane, High container throughput of Nacala no terminal handling times 46 MTPA by operating 2050 system Low capacity Lobito of handling equipment Waiting Yes; Dar es time high in At terminal throughput of Salaam container capacity 34 MTPA by terminal 2050 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 40 Waiting Draught, Equipment Capacity Port times and berths, and and Space on land expansion occupancy channel operations by 2050? Narrow Old handling Congestion Walvis Bay entrance equipment outside port At terminal Congestion Durban and berth outside port capacity Expansion constrained Richards by ecologically Around 2050 Bay sensitive surrounding area Source: World Bank. 3.7. Forecast results, 2050 3.7.1. Commodity growth estimates The RAFM developed freight flows for a 2050 scenario, in addition to the 2019 base. Further details on how the projects were derived can be found in a report by Cloete-Hopkins and Serafino (2021) at the University of Witwatersrand, and Annex E, Details of the trade and transport model. The following is a brief overview of the modelling process. World Bank data served as the primary source for the forecast of the 66 commodities (excluding South Africa, where the growth was taken from the national model). Commodity flow growth was determined using regression analyses, which compared historic figures, World Bank data series, and global outlook estimates. A plausible median growth pattern was derived. Exceptions were made for staple foods (grain, sorghum, maize), which are based on country-specific urban income per capita growth projections, and greenfield projects such as large new mines. Covid-19 impact and recovery until 2025 were considered using International monetary Fund (IMF) data on GDP, imports, and exports. The projections for 19 commodities in the mining and petroleum industry were further verified and altered, based on the needs and constraints of the Paris Agreement and the global transition to carbon neutrality. Long-term growth of fossil fuel production was compared to the IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2019, and global production cost curves. With current global pledges and production costs, it is possible that coal mining in Mozambique and South Africa will still be economically viable, and therefore contribute to road and rail traffic. Crude oil production in Angola is likely to persist to 2050, but the growth was reduced from 60 percent projected at the baseline, to 15 percent. A large growth in the production of metals crucial for the green transition is expected in Southern Africa. Copper production will triple and quadruple in DRC and Zambia respectively. This is partly because global shortages of copper are projected by 2035 (Yergin et al., 2022), incentivizing large investments in the sector. Sulphur, used for the extraction of copper, will mimic the growth pattern of this metal. Magnetite, chrome, and manganese production is projected to more than double in Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 41 South Africa by 2050, which is corroborated by the planned openings of further mines in the country (Emis 2022). The production and export of metals like zircon, titanium, tantalum and platinum is also likely to grow significantly in Southern Africa, as global demand grows rapidly alongside the demands of the climate transition (Hund et al, 2020). These considerations are incorporated into the 2050 commodity origin-destination matrices in the model. Other growth scenarios to 2050 are not considered. The uncertainty associated with projecting commodity supply and demand growth to 2050 in a rapidly evolving region such as Southern Africa is already significant. Providing alternative scenarios would therefore likely not add value to the current analysis. 3.7.2. Assignment results for 2050 Maps showing the modelled road and rail volumes are indicated in Figure 3.4. and Figure 3.5. Several observations of the traffic volumes can be made. All border crossing points will see at least a 100 percent increase in traffic, some up to an 800 percent increase. This suggests that intra-African trade is projected to grow significantly. Growth along the main road transport corridors, along parts of the DES corridor, from Nakonde to Dar es Salaam, are projected to grow by 225 percent, from around 2000 trucks/day in 2019 to over 6500 trucks/day in 2050. The North-South Corridor is also projected to experience large growth, about 130 percent, from up to 3500 trucks/day in 2019 to 8000 trucks/day in 2050 on the Lusaka–Ndola section. The N3, between Gauteng and Durban, is projected to experience up to 10000 trucks/day, particularly around urban areas. Certain railway lines are also expected to experience large growth. For example, the Trans-Kalahari corridor between Walvis Bay and Krantzberg is projected to grow from 1.7 MTPA to 8 MTPA; the Nacala Corridor between Nacala and Moatize is projected to grow from 8 MTPA to 20 MTPA; and the North-South Corridor between Rietvallei and Durban is projected to grow from 10.5 MTPA to 33 TMPA, and between Komatipoort and Richards Bay is projected to grow from 8.5 MTPA to 20 MTPA, and the Beira corridor between Beira and Moatize from 2.2 MTPA to 25 MTPA. Similarly, Beira Port is expected to grow significantly, by 350 percent. Dar es Salaam, Lobito, Maputo, Nacala, Walvis Bay, Mombasa, and Port Elizabeth are all expected to roughly double their throughput by 2050. The smaller ports of Mtwara and Pemba are expected to grow rapidly, at 10 percent a year or more. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 42 Figure 3.4. AADT modelled vehicles volumes, 2050 Source: World Bank. Figure 3.5. Modelled rail volumes, 2050 with current network Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 43 This suggests there will be several capacity bottlenecks on the current road and rail network. On the road network, there are two new sections of roads that will be at capacity, in addition to the five regions that are close to capacity now. These are parts of the N3 and N4 in South Africa, the road to Botswana and the A1 in Botswana on the North South Corridor, and the N7 in Mozambique along the Beira Corridor. In Mozambique, lines between Moatize and Beira, and Nacala and Beira will need to be upgraded. In South Africa, railways from the North to Durban and to Richards Bay will require upgrading. In Namibia, the railway line between Kranzberg and Walvis Bay is projected to reach capacity around 2050. The model also allows us to assess at a strategic level the impact of adding new road or rail links to the network. Border posts will see a significant increase in demand by the year 2050 (on average, by a factor of 3.2). These changes are shown in Figure 3.6. Current daily traffic is shown in bars, and future capacity needs are shown as dots. The highest annual growth can be expected on the Chanida border (7.4 percent, from 152 to 1421 trucks/day, Beira Corridor), the Kazungula border (7.2 percent, from 198 to 1697 trucks/day, North-South Corridor), and the Sesheke border (6 percent, from 162 to 977 trucks/day, Trans-Caprivi Corridor). However, these are all relatively small numbers of vehicles in absolute numbers. The highest absolute numbers of trucks in 2050 are projected on the Komatipoort border (4802, up from 1690 in 2019, Maputo Corridor), the Kasumbalesa border (3780, up from 1340, Trans-Caprivi/North-South Corridor), and the Milange border (3187, up from 1188, Nacala Corridor). Figure 3.6. Border post traffic now (bars), and capacity needs to 2050 (dots) 5000 Number of freight vehicles/day 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 Komatipoort Kasumbalesa Milange Beitbridge Chiponde Nakonde Songwe Gaborone Chirundu Katima Mulilo Kazungula Chanida Border Corridor Beira Corridor DES Maputo Corridor Nacala Corridor NSC T-Caprivi Corridor Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 44 3.8. Conclusions and Recommendations The RAFM transport model was developed to describe the flow of goods and traffic in the wider southern Africa region, and to test potential future infrastructure projects, trade facilitation improvements, and climate impacts on the transport network. To achieve this, data on both intra-regional and extra-regional trade was collected. Data on traffic levels, road and rail condition, and the network itself had to be collected as well. Currently, several bottlenecks on the road and rail network exist, where significant congestion is experienced. In the future, more substantial parts of the network are expected to become pinch points, requiring urgent action to address these capacity limitations. These pinch points have been identified as parts of the N4 and N3 in South Africa, as well as parts of the A1 in Botswana on the North South Corridor, and the N7 in Mozambique along the Beira Corridor, which will reach capacity prior to 2050. In Mozambique, railway lines between Gauteng Region and Maputo, Moatize and Beira, and Nacala and Beira will also need to be upgraded. In South Africa, railways from the North to Durban and to Richards Bay, and the link to Saldanha will all require upgrading. And many border crossing points will experience large increases in traffic, including some up to eight-fold. Over 3000 trucks/day are projected on the Kasumbalesa and Milange border crossings, and over 4000 trucks/day on the Komatipoort border. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 45 References Crickmay Associates (2019). Corridor Performance Management System: Southern & Eastern Africa.Travel time reports for period 2019. Retrieved from https://www. corridorperformancemonitoringsystem.com/. EMIS. “Africa Mining Sector 2022/2023” (2022). EMIS Insights Industry Report. Google. (2022, January). Google’s floating car dataset. IEA (2019). Africa Energy Outlook 2019: Angola, and IEA Africa Energy Outlook 2019: Mozambique. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1d996108-18cc-41d7-9da3-55496cec6310/AEO2019_ MOZAMBIQUE.pdf. Kirsten Hund et al. (2020). Minerals for Climate Action. World Bank Publications. Available at: https://pubdocs.worldbank.org/en/961711588875536384/Minerals-for-Climate-Action-The- Mineral-Intensity-of-the-Clean-Energy-Transition.pd.f OpenStreetMap (n.d.). openstreetmap. Retrieved from https://www.openstreetmap.org/copyright. © OpenStreetMap contributors. S&P Global (2022). Daniel Yergin et al. The Future of Copper. Tolplan Pty Ltd. (2016). N3 Pietermaritzburg to Durban and N2 Umdloti to Prospecton Visum model. Transportation Research Board (2022). Highway Capacity Manual. Transportation Research Board. UNCTAD. (2022). Liner shipping connectivity index, quarterly. Available at http://unctadstat.unctad. org/wds/TableViewer/tableView.aspx?ReportId=92. University of the Witwatersrand (2021). Regional African Freight Model (RAFM). Transnet Centre of Systems Engineering. Chapter 4 The Impact of Climate Change Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 47 4.1. Introduction The impact of climate change on transport networks can be severe: extreme rainfall, coastal flooding, heat, or wind can all lead to disruptions in transport flow, and infrastructure damage. As transport networks play a critical role in economic growth and development, their disruption can lead to large macroeconomic losses, loss of livelihoods, and impede access to basic services such as healthcare and education. The risk of natural hazards should be considered carefully in the development and maintenance of the road, rail, and port network. This section presents an analysis of the current and future climate conditions in Southern Africa, and the vulnerability of the transport network to these conditions and extreme hazards. This section first describes the current climate in the region, then explains the data and methodology used to conduct the analysis, and finally presents the results for current and future extreme hazard scenarios. 4.1.1. Current Climate The climate across the Southern African region is highly diverse and driven by a variety of distinct climatic systems. Figure 4.1. (left) depicts the mean annual precipitation, which is clearly higher in DRC and the Congo, while Namibia and South Africa are significantly drier. Figure 4.1. (right) shows the mean annual temperatures on the continent. Extreme climatic events, especially droughts, are already negatively impacting economies, agricultural production, and the livelihoods and lives of people in the Southern African region. Figure 4.1. Left: Annual precipitation, average 1991-2020, mm. Right: Annual mean temperatures, average 1991-2020, C Source: World Bank. Climate projections suggest that by 2050, Southern Africa will experience increases in temperatures between 0.66C and 2.28C, with the highest increases in Botswana, Namibia, and South Africa, and the lowest in DRC and Tanzania. Warming is expected to be the most acute in Namibia, where the number of very hot days (>35C) is expected to rise by about 50 days/year. This will be accompanied by a decrease in annual rainfall of up to 57-97mm/year. Water scarcity is likely to increase in these areas. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 48 Precipitation increases are projected to be highest in DRC and the Congo, by up to around 100mm/year (World Bank, 2023). These climatic and meteorological shifts will make parts of the subcontinent more vulnerable to frequent flooding, which already has a significant economic impact. Weather-based disruptions have already been responsible for about US$38.5bnUS$ in economic losses in the Southern Africa region since 1970 (Kamer, 2022). In total, African countries have suffered a 10percent to 15percent reduction in per-capita GDP growth since 1986 due to climate variability, and climate change (Baarsch et al., 2020). Annual figures conceal greater intra-annual variability. For example, while mean annual precipitation is likely to decrease over most of the Zambezi River basin, it is projected that December to early spring will see higher rainfall. Malawi is also projected to experience greater variability in precipitation, increasing risk of both flooding and droughts. More extreme rainfall is also projected over Maputo, in Mozambique, and Eastern South Africa (Climate Information Portal). Climate change will have a significant and detrimental impact on critical infrastructure, including transport. For example, extreme heat softens paved roads and can lead to the buckling of railways. It increases wear and tear, and therefore also increases maintenance and investment costs, as well as well as requiring new design specifications for new projects. Flooding can restrict road and rail access, lead to long-term infrastructure damage (e.g., in case a bridge is destroyed, or the road foundation is destabilized), while storm surges and sea level rise will impact coastal traffic and ports (World Bank, 2016). High winds can also lead to problems for all modes, closing airports and ports, bringing down bridges and overhead lines, and leading to delays, cancellations of services, and safety issues. The transport corridors in the Southern African region are subject to a wide range of climatic conditions, from the wet and humid east coast of Mozambique to the hot and dry central regions of Namibia and the Caprivi Strip. They also cross several significant rivers including the Zambezi, Shire, and Limpopo, where there is a potential risk of increasing magnitudes of floods. Due to the climatic variability, each corridor is subject to different levels of climate risk. This study reports on climate change vulnerability analyses of national, provincial, and rural roads; bridges on national roads; national railways; and major ports. A system is considered vulnerable if it has: a. High exposure to extreme events (called hazards), b. High sensitivity to the events, if the impact on a system is high, and c. A low ability to adapt to these events, increasing the risk of a disaster (IPCC, 2022) In this report, vulnerabilities and risks were analyzed in the context of extreme flooding caused by rivers overtopping their banks (fluvial flooding), flooding caused by extreme local rainfall (pluvial flooding), extremely hot days, and disruptions due to storms and wind. The data on hazard exposure was sourced separately for road and rail, and for ports. 4.2. Climate vulnerability assessment overview The purpose of this assessment is to identify the vulnerability of the transport network in Southern Africa to rainfall, heat, flood, and extreme wind risk. It identifies the sections critical to the functioning of the transport network in the region and provides detailed spatial evidence of the Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 49 system’s vulnerabilities. This section describes the types of assessments conducted, the sources of data that were used for the assessments, and assumptions made regarding future trends. It also defines the thresholds above which a link was considered disrupted, and outlines the analytical method. The assessment considers both current weather patterns and future scenarios up to 2050 and examines the disruptions in the transport network. The assessment also analyzes criticality and vulnerability. These terms currently do not have a universally accepted definition. Following Pant et al. (2018) and Kesete et al. (2021), we define them as follows. Criticality assessment. Criticality is defined as a measure of a transport link’s importance a.  within the network, and its disruptive impact on the serviceability of the transport network in the case of closure. All links in a network are ranked based on their importance. Vulnerability assessment. Highlights the impacts of natural hazards on transport availability. b.  It measures the negative consequences of transport link failures caused by an external shock and serves to highlight areas where disruptions would be especially severe. The criticality and vulnerability analyses help prioritize investments and provide a sequence for investing in risk reduction activities. Ranking which assets are the most critical provides a way to prioritize investments to maintain the functionality of the wider network. As around 48 percent of the critical transport network is also part of the 7 Corridors, understanding which sections of the network may be most vulnerable forms the basis for long-term adaptation planning, while also informing budget decisions. This analysis should not be used to make final decisions but be treated as the basis for further study. Information on extreme and future temperatures was accessed through the World Bank Group, Climate Change Knowledge Portal. The annual number of hot days above 35C, 42C, and 45C per year was extracted, on a spatial resolution grid of 0.5° by 0.5°. The hot days consider both temperature and specific humidity. The Climate Change Knowledge Portal contains both historical, 1995-2014 data, and CMIP6 Mean Projections (Climatology) for 2040-2059 for all Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP scenarios). The SSPs represent different levels of future climate warming, depending on projected global carbon emissions reductions and society-wide efforts. The study presents the results for two scenarios of extreme heat: median and high levels of global warming. The first scenario, median warming or SSP1-2.6, assumes increased sustainability, but net-zero emissions will only be reached after 2050, roughly in line with current levels of national commitments. The high emissions scenario, SSP5-8.5, assumes continued growth in emissions and fossil fuel use, and more than 3.3C higher global temperatures by 2100. The SSPs are roughly equal to the climate forcing projections used in the past, RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, respectively (O’Neill et al., 2016). The modeled climate data projections are presented by a 1° by 1° grid. Historical flood risk data with return periods from 1 to 1000 years was available from FATHOM 2.0 (Arup, 2023). FATHOM uses terrain data, an estimate of river flows, and geographical data on river channels to produce high-resolution maps of flood water extent and depth at a global level. For fluvial flooding, where water spills over the riverbanks, undefended data was used, which assumes that there are no flood defenses. Pluvial flooding, which represents flash floods due to rainfall, was also analyzed. Generally, fluvial flood data is considered more reliable. The data comes at a spatial resolution of ~90m cells. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 50 At the time of writing this report, global projections of flooding to 2050 were not available. In the future, it is likely that floods will become more common and extreme, particularly more frequently occurring, 1-in-5-year to 1-in-100-year events (Kesete et al., 2021). However, as the projected changes in flood risk are highly variable and watershed-specific, we remain neutral as to the frequency and extent of flooding across the whole region, and do not present future projections in this report. For example, it is likely that the Western side of Southern Africa will experience less extreme precipitation than the Eastern side. Data on tropical cyclones and extreme wind was available from the STORM dataset (Bloemendaal et al, 2020). STORM is a globally available dataset on extreme wind. It provides tropical cyclone maximum wind speed in meters per second for all event return periods, like flooding, at a 10km spatial resolution. The dataset primarily focuses on coastal areas and the Eastern side of Southern Africa. Future projections are only available for SSP5-8.5/RCP8.5 for the 2050s and can be seen as an upper bound risk estimate. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 51 The effect of extreme weather on ports, and resulting downtime in days, was provided by Verschuur (2023). The combined impact of flooding (pluvial, fluvial, and coastal flooding due to storm surges), tropical cyclone wind, earthquakes, and other factors that may impede the operation of a port, was converted into the number of days in a year when a port cannot operate. The values are provided for historical data, with a median, 10th and 90th percentile value, and for mid-century future projections. The effect of individual hazards on port downtime is not reported. The transport network from the RAFM model for 2019 was used for this analysis. To evaluate whether a hazard could affect the transport network, the following steps were carried out: a. Threshold values for each of the four hazards were established. Above these thresholds, the transport link was considered disrupted, and traffic was assumed to either stop, or reroute. b. Raster maps of each of the four hazards were obtained and laid over the map of the transport network. The transport network was obtained from the RAFM, explained more in later chapters. c. In locations where the two layers intersected, the link was considered exposed, even if only a part of the link was affected. The methodological framework applied for this report is similar to the one applied in the United Kingdom, Argentina, and Tanzania (Thacker et al., 2017; Pant et al., 2018; Kesete et al., 2021). The analysis was carried out in Python and in R. The exposure data was supplied by the University of Oxford-led Infrastructure Transitions Research Consortium (ITRC). Various threshold values for operation were collected. Above these thresholds, a transport link was considered disrupted, and no vehicles or trains would use it. These thresholds are summarized in Table 4.1. At higher temperatures, the probability of rail lines buckling increases, to about 10 percent at 44C (Nuemann et al., 2021). For rail lines in suboptimal condition, the likelihood of buckling can be higher (Hall and Jenkins, 2009). Extreme heat does not affect the operability of roads, but it does increase rutting and maintenance requirements. High temperatures may also make it uncomfortable for people to drive. Flooding of 10-15cm is enough to increase the risk of train derailment, and so trains are usually prevented from operating in these conditions. Inundation levels much smaller than 60cm would render a road impassable for passenger vehicles, but freight vehicles are heavier, and their engine is higher above ground, as well. For extreme wind, 25m/s is the speed at which rail traffic would be stopped due to the likelihood of trees falling. At 32m/s there is a risk of carriages overturning. Table 4.1. Thresholds used for establishing the disruption of a transport link Sector Hazard Threshold Source Extreme heat Above 42C Vajda et al. (2014) and Mulholland and Feyen (2021) Rail Flooding 150mm Vajda et al. (2014) and Johnson (1996) Cyclone winds 25m/s Vajda et al. (2014) Extreme heat Above 42C Vajda et al. (2014) and Mulholland et al. (2021) Road Flooding 600mm Pregnolato et al. (2017) Cyclone winds 32m/s Vajda et al. (2014) Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 52 4.3. Results, current climate conditions This section presents the results of the criticality and vulnerability analysis. First, the importance of certain links in the transport network is highlighted. Next, the present-day exposure of the network to climate hazards is reviewed, and finally, future projections are presented. In summary, the transport network is vulnerable to extreme heat particularly in South Africa, Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe. The entire transport network in Southern Africa is highly susceptible to flooding, both from rivers and flash floods. This applies to a 1-in-100-year event, but also more frequent events such as a 1-in-5-year event. Only the coast of Mozambique is expected to be critically affected by extreme cyclones. 4.3.1. Criticality analysis The first step in a criticality assessment is to evaluate the importance of each transport link. Critical links are links that connect origin and destination zones for which there is only one path, and no alternative routes exist. These are also called single points of failures. Thus, if these links are severed, trade flow between these two zones is also severed. The baseline network is shown on the left-hand side in Figure 4.2., while the right-hand side depicts these critical links. Figure 4.2. Road and rail network in RAFM. On the right-hand side, critical infrastructure for trade flow is highlighted Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 53 The most critical links are in the middle part of a territory, or connecting ports, as the disruption of these links increases the length of a detour significantly. Overall, these links carry about 67 percent of all cargo moving between regions in Southern Africa. There is limited redundancy and few detours available throughout much of the network, which makes the region particularly vulnerable to disruptions. The cargo equivalent of 16,000 vehicles would not reach their origin or destination if the ports of Richards Bay or Cabinda are closed; at Saldanha, it would be the cargo equivalent of 7,000 vehicles. Typically, port closures cause very high disruptions due to the lack of alternative ports nearby. The highest disruption on roads would occur if sections of the North-South Corridor in the Limpopo and Gauteng region in South Africa were closed, affecting up to around 2,000 freight vehicles per day. Similar disruptions would occur on other parts of the Tanzanian network, leading to Lake Victoria, and parallel to Lake Tanganyika to Zambia. Up to 1,000 vehicles per day would be disrupted in the Kigoma region in Tanzania, leading to Lake Tanganyika. Although more vehicles may pass these roads per day, there exist feasible alternative paths to their destinations, and so these vehicles are not included in these numbers. Overall, significant parts of the North-South Corridor are critical to freight flow in the region, as well as the Trans Cunene Corridor through Angola, and the Trans-Caprivi Corridor from Walvis Bay in Namibia to Zambia. The Trans-Caprivi Corridor also provides an alternative route to the Trans-Kalahari corridor, which is therefore not included in the critical links. The Dar-es-Salaam, Nacala, Beira and Maputo Corridors are also critical links in the infrastructure network of the region. This is due to the economic and trade importance of the ports and the size of their hinterland. It should be noted that this criticality analysis only applies to transport links relevant to trade between significant regions within a country, or between countries. Intra-regional trade is unlikely to be caught in sufficient amounts to be able to capture links critical to this type of trade. Certain traffic can reroute where there are alternatives. However, since the distances considered here were so large, and often the largest disruptions would occur at ports or border crossing points, where alternatives do not exist, redistribution (diversion) costs were not calculated. 4.3.2. Heat stress The results under baseline (current) climate conditions for heat stress are shown in Figure 4.3. Heat stress exists where the maximum annual temperature exceeds 42C; in the figure, it is measured from 1991-2020. Excessive heat strains the body, increasing morbidity and mortality. Heatwaves can affect a large population at once, and can last for days or weeks, increasing the risk of public health emergencies. Children, elderly, people with health conditions and outdoor manual workers are the most vulnerable to heat stress. The darker red color represent links that were likely to be affected during a more common event (median event), while the lighter orange color represents links that were affected only under extreme heat conditions, on the 90th percentile of probability of occurrence. Duration of the events is not modelled. Historically, virtually all major road links in Botswana are exposed to extreme heat during some parts of the year. Parts of Namibia, South Africa, Mozambique (particularly Zambezi Valley), Zimbabwe, and Zambia are, as well. Overall, about 24 percent of the network is exposed to some extreme heat events. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 54 Figure 4.3. Links affected by extreme heat, historical average Source: World Bank. 4.3.3. Flooding Road and rail closure due to flooding is depicted in Figure 4.4. and Figure 4.5. for fluvial and pluvial flooding, respectively. The Southern African transport network is particularly susceptible to flooding. 45 percent and 36 percent of the overall network (in length) would be flooded in a 1-in-5-year fluvial and pluvial flood event, respectively. For a 1-in-100-year event, as shown in the Figures, this value rises to 63 percent and 58 percent respectively. A similar proportion of the network is exposed to an even worse flood, a 1-in-500-year event (67 percent and 62 percent, respectively). Flooding causes the highest transport risks due to critical link failures in Mozambique and Malawi. Overall, the transport network in Southern Africa is highly exposed to very frequent flooding, especially from the overflow of riverbanks (fluvial), including significant parts of the critical network. Flooding may occur even in regional experiencing water scarcity, and may impact freshwater supply, as natural and man-made stores of water overflow. However, these values should be considered worst-case scenarios, for two reasons. First, the flood estimates do not account for existing flood defense systems. Second, flooding events are likely to be very spatially isolated, and would at most affect a specific watershed, not the entire network simultaneously. In this manner, flooding differs from heatwaves. However, the impacts of both a heatwave and a flood can continue for several weeks, if not longer. Modelling of specific events was not possible, and therefore the real extent of a flood is difficult to predict. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 55 Figure 4.4. Links affected by fluvial flooding, historical average for a 1-in-100-year event. Source: World Bank. Figure 4.5. Links affected by pluvial flooding, historical average, 1-in-100-year event Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 56 4.3.4. Tropical cyclones Extreme storms usually affect infrastructure through storm surges and extreme winds. The maps shown in Figure 4.6. depict a 1-in-100-year cyclone event, with wind speeds at 25m/s or higher for rail, and 32m/s or higher for roads. Mozambique is the only country regularly affected by cyclones from the Southern Indian Ocean. Only railway links are affected during a 1-in-100-year event. Safety precautions and local regulation may lead to road and rail closures at lower wind speeds. Figure 4.6. Links affected by extreme wind due to tropical storms, historical average, 1-in-100-year event Source: World Bank. 4.3.5. Duration of disruption The duration of disruption caused by natural hazards was not calculated as part of the modelling. However, historical data for countries in the region was collected by Tellman et al. (2021). Table 4.2. presents the type of flooding events, how frequently they occurred, and the duration of the flood and disruption they caused, in the period 2000-2018. On average, each country experienced at least one event per year that caused a disruption and affected the population. Such an event would typically disrupt activities for 16 days, with a range of 9 to 43 days within the 10th and 90th percentiles. During the studied period, the most extreme rainfall events caused disruptions that lasted for up to Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 57 5.5 months. For a duration of 16 days, the economic damage due to cargo and vehicles waiting until the disruption is could be up to US$678000 on certain parts of the North-South Corridor, and up to US$4.15 million US$ for an access road to a port, specifically Richards Bay. Table 4.2. Duration of disruption per event, historical average 2000-2018 10th 90th Median percentile, percentile, Number number Country Cause of disruption Number Number of events of days of of days of of days of recorded disruption disruption disruption Dam 0 0 0 1 Angola Heavy rain 5 14 98 17 Burundi Heavy rain 4 19 59 16 Dam 0 0 0 1 Botswana Heavy rain 5 16 122 11 Democratic Dam 0 0 0 1 Republic of Congo Heavy rain 5 19 91 25 Republic of Congo Heavy rain 10 33 116 7 Kenya Heavy rain 3 18 50 33 Lesotho Heavy rain 4 7 13 4 Dam 0 0 0 1 Mozambique Heavy rain 4 17 46 17 Tropical Storm, Surge 28 28 28 1 Heavy rain 27 36 47 6 Malawi Tropical Storm, Surge 28 28 28 1 Dam 0 0 0 1 Namibia Heavy rain 6 16 110 14 Rwanda Heavy rain 4 19 59 16 Heavy rain 11 17 40 3 Swaziland Tropical Storm, Surge 28 28 28 1 Heavy rain 4 23 47 29 Tanzania Tropical Storm, Surge 28 28 28 1 Uganda Heavy rain 4 19 72 17 Dam 0 0 0 1 South Africa Heavy rain 4 9 17 15 Tropical Storm, Surge 28 28 28 1 Dam 0 0 0 1 Zambia Heavy rain 4 17 90 19 Tropical Storm, Surge 28 28 28 1 Dam 0 0 0 1 Zimbabwe Heavy rain 5 17 90 19 Tropical Storm, Surge 28 28 28 1 Average 9 16 43 9 Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 58 Port downtime is estimated as a sum of closures due to pluvial and fluvial flooding, earthquakes, operational closures due to wind or other local weather conditions, and storm surges and coastal flooding. The estimated number of days per year each major port is closed for are shown in Figure 4.7. The central value is the median number of days the port is closed, and the error bars depict the 10th and 90th percentiles of the probability distribution curve. Percentiles were used instead of inter-quantile ranges because the distribution of events is highly skewed. South African ports suffer the most closed days per year. This is dominated by the Port of Elizabeth, which has been closed for almost 16 days/year on average in the past two decades. However, during an extreme year, it has been closed for 32 or more days. Figure 4.7. Port downtime, present day, annual average 30% Number of days 20% 10% 0% Port Elizabeth_South Africa Cape Town_South Africa Saldanha Bay_South Africa Soyo Angola LNG Terminal_Angola Richards Bay_South Africa Namibe_Angola Beira_Mozambique Maputo_Mozambique Nacala_Mozambique East London_South Africa Pemba_Mozambique Luanda_Angola Durban_South Africa Zanzibar_Tanzania Dar Es Salaam_Tanzania Lamu_Kenya Point Noire_Republic of Congo Malongo_Angola Lobito_Angola Mombasa_Kenya Port Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 59 4.4. Results, future climate conditions Under future climatic conditions, increases in extreme heat and wind are expected, as well as port closure duration. Floods are also expected to become more extreme, though whether they become more common depends on the specific watershed and geographical area. Data for future flooding was not available at the time of writing this report. 4.4.1. Extreme heat Southern Africa will experience more extreme heatwaves by 2050. Expected trends are presented under the median climate warming scenario (SSP1-2.6) and extreme climate scenario (SSP5-8.5). Even under a median climate warming scenario (Figure 4.8.), the region that will experience hot days above 42C will spread considerably. In Botswana, events that rarely occurred in the past (90th percentile) will become commonplace (median). Parts of Namibia and South Africa will also be exposed to extreme heat, as well as several roads in Kenya, Uganda, and DRC. Figure 4.9. shows more severe warming, where global temperatures will increase by more than 3.3C above pre-industrial levels. In such a scenario, 48 percent km of the transport network will be affected, relative to 36 percent at a more moderate level of warming. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 60 Figure 4.8. Links affected by extreme heat, projections SSP1-2.6 2050s Source: World Bank. Figure 4.9. Links affected by extreme heat, projections SSP5-8.5 2050s Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 61 4.4.2. Tropical cyclones With increased global warming, the frequency and strength, of tropical cyclones will also increase. Figure 4.10. presents the average results from several global climate models from CMIP6, for a 1-in- 100-year event. Compared to Figure 4.6., more of coastal Mozambique will be exposed. While not present in Figure 4.6., roads are also affected in Figure 4.10. This shows that the severity of the wind, not only the geographical extent, will increase as well. This is because roads have a higher threshold for operability than rail. Figure 4.10. Links affected by extreme wind, projections to 2050, 1-in-100-year event Source: World Bank. 4.4.3. Port downtime Ports will be affected by flooding, wind, and other operational barriers in a different way to how they are affected now. Figure 4.11. shows that the highest number of days a port will likely remain closed per year will not change significantly and the most affected port will still be Port Elizabeth in South Africa. However, ports that currently do not suffer from climate-related closures will do so in the future. For example, ports further North will become more affected by coastal storm surges and operational closures due to wind and fog. This includes Zanzibar in Tanzania (3rd), which is currently the 15th most affected port. In general, ports that currently have not been adapted to expected changes in water level due to tides, or storm surges, are likely to suffer the effects of increases in sea level first. This includes, for example, jetties and smaller port structures, often important to local life and trade. Number of days Number of days 0% 10% 20% 30% 0% 10% 20% 30% Port Elizabeth_South Africa Port Elizabeth_South Africa Source: World Bank. Zanzibar_Tanzania Cape Town_South Africa Cape Town_South Africa Zanzibar_Tanzania Soyo Angola LNG Terminal_Angola Soyo Angola LNG Terminal_Angola Saldanha Bay_South Africa Saldanha Bay_South Africa Beira_Mozambique Beira_Mozambique Richards Bay_South Africa Richards Bay_South Africa Port downtime, RCP 2.6, days/year Port downtime, RCP 8.5, days/year Namibe_Angola Namibe_Angola Maputo_Mozambique Maputo_Mozambique Port Port Nacala_Mozambique Nacala_Mozambique Luanda_Angola Mombasa_Kenya East London_South Africa Luanda_Angola Durban_South Africa East London_South Africa Pemba_Mozambique Pemba_Mozambique Mombasa_Kenya Durban_South Africa Dar Es Salaam_Tanzania Dar Es Salaam_Tanzania Lamu_Kenya Lamu_Kenya Point Noire_Republic of Congo Point Noire_Republic of Congo Figure 4.11. Port downtime, RCP 2.6 (median) and RCP 8.5 (extreme), in days/year in 2050 Malongo_Angola Malongo_Angola Lobito_Angola Lobito_Angola Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 62 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 63 4.5. Conclusions and Recommendations The assessment has shown that major freight routes, including roads, railways and ports, face disruptions due to extreme flooding, heat, and wind, and will become worse with climate change. It will be critical for individual country authorities to incorporate climate change considerations into their short-term infrastructure maintenance plans, long-term national infrastructure investment plans, and other planning processes: a. Improving design standards to include adaptation in infrastructure design, and adaptation to climate change risk is a priority. b. Recommended next steps include quantifying the expected direct damage and indirect macroeconomic losses of climate risk-related disruptions; and updating transport risk assessments to take climate change into consideration. c. A full cost-benefit analysis should be conducted to evaluate the economic case for increasing infrastructure resilience to hazards. Estimates of the cost to reduce these disruptions, and event-specific modelling for the future would be needed for such an analysis. Additional hazards, such as exposure to dust storms or wildfires, should be considered where appropriate. d. Flooding (both fluvial and pluvial) affects large parts of the network even for very common events. As such, priority should be given to managing flood risk. Investing in assist drainage, culverts under roads and railways, improved road surfacing, protection of bridge foundations, or raising the level of certain infrastructure sections may be beneficial. e. In general, it is useful to manage watersheds and reduce the degradation of land in water catchment areas of rivers. Nature-based solutions, such as reforestation, terracing of slopes, inland wetlands, floodplains, and management of small water bodies that can slow down the flow of excess water, or absorb water, are key to reducing this threat (World Bank, 2023). f. To maximize the benefits of nature-based solutions, local, site-specific assessments that engage with local stakeholders effectively are needed. Part of this exercise should include addressing existing uncertainty in the climate and socioeconomic conditions, as well as evaluating any additional co-benefits for local agriculture or watershed management. Any investment project should consider nature-based solutions as an integral part of their assessment. g. Adaptation to climate change risk is also effective at reducing risk. These include early warning systems and emergency response plans. Educating trade and transport workers on effective measures to reduce heat in trucks or on the road may be useful in areas that are more consistently exposed to heat, or more remote areas. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 64 References Arup. 2023. Fathom Global Flood Maps. Available at: https://www.fathom.global/product/flood- hazard-data-maps/global-flood-map/. Baarsch, F., Granadillos, J. R., Hare, W., Knaus, M., Krapp, M., Schaeffer, M., & Lotze-Campen, H. 2020. The impact of climate change on incomes and convergence in Africa. World Development, 126. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2019.104699. Bloemendaal, N., Haigh, I.D., de Moel, H. et al. Generation of a global synthetic tropical cyclone hazard dataset using STORM. Sci Data 7, 40 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-020-0381-2. Hall, J., and K. Jenkins. N.d. Modeling the impacts of climate change on cities: economic costs of rail buckle events. Arcadia Factsheet 9. https://www.arcc-network.org.uk/wp-content/pdfs/ARCADIA- 09-buckling.pdf. Last accessed [2023/01/18]. IPCC, 2022: Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [H.-O. Pörtner, D.C. Roberts, M. Tignor, E.S. Poloczanska, K. Mintenbeck, A. Alegría, M. Craig, S. Langsdorf, S. Löschke, V. Möller, A. Okem, B. Rama (eds.)]. Cambridge University Press. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA, 3056 pp., doi:10.1017/9781009325844. Johnson, T. (1996). Strong; wind effects on railway operations—16th October 1987. Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 60, 251-266. Kamer, Lars. 2022. Distribution of reported economic losses due to natural disasters in Africa between 1970 and 2019, by type. Statista. Available at: https://www.statista.com/ statistics/1270952/reported-economic-losses-due-to-natural-disasters-in-africa/ Last accessed [2023/05/04]. Kesete, Y., Raffo, V., Pant, R., Koks, E.E., Paltan, H., Russell, T., Hall, J.W. 2021. Climate Change Risk Analysis of Argentina’s Land Transport Network. Latin America and the Caribbean Region Infrastructure Practice Group Transport Global Practice, World Bank Group. Mulholland, E., & Feyen, L. (2021). Increased risk of extreme heat to European roads and railways with global warming. Climate Risk Management, 34, 100365. Neumann, J.E., Chinowsky, P., Helman, J. et al. Climate effects on US infrastructure: the economics of adaptation for rail, roads, and coastal development. Climatic Change 167, 44 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03179-w. O’Neill, B. C., Tebaldi, C., van Vuuren, D. P., Eyring, V., Friedlingstein, P., Hurtt, G., Knutti, R., Kriegler, E., Lamarque, J.-C., Lowe, J., Meehl, G. A., Moss, R., Riahi, K., & Sanderson, B. M. 2016. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6. Geoscientific Model Development, 9(9), 3461–3482. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-3461-2016. Pant, R., Koks, E.E., Russell, T., & Hall, J.W. 2018. Transport Risks Analysis for The United Republic of Tanzania – Systemic vulnerability assessment of multi-modal transport networks. Final Report Draft, Oxford Infrastructure Analytics Ltd., Oxford, UK. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 65 Pregnolato, M., Ford, A., Wilkinson, S. M., & Dawson, R. J. (2017). The impact of flooding on road transport: A depth-disruption function. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 55, 67-81. Tellman, B., Sullivan, J.A., Kuhn, C. et al. Satellite imaging reveals increased proportion of population exposed to floods. Nature 596, 80–86 (2021). https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-021-03695-w. Thacker, S., Pant, R., Hall, J.W. (2017). System-of-systems formulation and disruption analysis for multi-scale critical national infrastructures. In Reliability Engineering and Systems Safety, 167: 30-41. Vajda, A., Tuomenvirta, H., Juga, I., Nurmi, P., Jokinen, P., & Rauhala, J. (2014). Severe weather affecting European transport systems: The identification, classification, and frequencies of events. Natural Hazards, 72, 169-188. Verschuur, J., Koks, E.E., Li, S. et al. Multi-hazard risk to global port infrastructure and resulting trade and logistics losses. Commun Earth Environ 4, 5 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022- 00656-7. World Bank. 2016. Technical Notes: Flood Risk in Road Networks. World Bank Publications. Washington, D.C. World Bank Group. 2023. Climate Change Knowledge Portal. Washington D.C. Available at: https://climateknowledgeportal.worldbank.org/. World Bank. 2023. Assessing the Benefits and Costs of Nature-Based Solutions for Climate Resilience: A Guideline for Project Developers. Washington D.C. Available at: https://openknowledge. worldbank.org/entities/publication/9ed5cb4b-78dc-42a4-b914-23d71cef24a2. Chapter 5 Barriers and Enabling Reforms to Regional Trade Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 67 5.1. Introduction Trade facilitation is vital for the realization of the African Continental Free Trade Area’s (AfCFTA) ambitious objective of increasing intra-African trade flows. UNECA projected in an earlier report that with enhanced trade facilitation, the AfCFTA would increase intra-African trade by 21.9 percent of the total trade of Africa. UNECA also estimated that if widespread improvement in trade facilitation were to be realized, US$85 billion would have been added to intra-African trade, representing a 128.4 percent increase.7 The principles underpinning trade facilitation are: (i) to simplify and reduce the number of documents and procedures associated with the clearance of goods; (ii) to harmonize and ensure compatibility with international standards and norms; and (iii) to make all procedures and regulations transparent in their application across ports of entry, ensuring that enforcement is fair and consistent.8 This section looks at progress in the implementation of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA). First, the TFA is briefly introduced. This is followed by an update of the current state of progress, an evaluation of the challenges in implementing TFA measures, and a list of recommendations for accelerating TFA implementation. 5.2. The World Trade Organization (WTO) Trade Facilitation Agreement (TFA) The TFA, which entered into force on 22 February 2017, is the primary trade facilitation instrument operating as a legally binding agreement containing rules of expediting the movement, release, and clearance of goods, including goods in transit. It sets out modalities for effective cooperation and coordination between border agencies on issues related to movement of goods across borders. The WTO TFA also builds on the provisions of various trade facilitation instruments developed by the World Customs Organization, such as the Revised Kyoto Convention, and goes further by making their implementation mandatory for Members. This section examines selected provisions of the WTO TFA that impact on the logistic performance of service providers on the SADC corridors. It focuses on a “regional approach” to implementation of certain of the TFA measures i.e., looking at regional solutions that stand in place of -and remove the need for – national implementation of a measure. Ongoing work in the RECs suggests that there might be scope for regional coordination and oversight over standardized transparency provisions. Examples include the Trade Information Portals (Article 1.1 and 1.2 of TFA); Issuance of Advance Rulings on tariff; valuation and rules of origin; support for customs automation and single window systems; mutual administrative assistance; risk management (with possibilities for regional agreements for Authorized Economic Operator [AEO] systems); and Customs to Business engagement under the auspices of the SADC Business Council and the Trade and Transport Corridor Monitoring systems. Examples of areas that could benefit from this regional approach are the development of common standards, provision of capacity building programs, and implementation of regional benchmarks and guidelines such as SADC Coordinated Border Management (CBM) Guidelines and Model Laws. This is based on a Research commissioned by UNECA and published in a Report on AfCFTA issued in 2012. 7 Amoako-Tuffor J et al., 2016. 8 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 68 5.3. The Current State of Progress The TFA contains special and differential treatment (SDT) measures that link implementation requirements to the capacity of developing and least developed countries (LDC) to do so (WTO, 2023). The agreement provides even greater flexibility in implementation timelines for LDCs than for developing countries. To take advantage of these SDT flexibilities, a member must place each provision of the agreement into one of three categories as defined below. They must notify WTO members of these categorizations in accordance with specific timelines outlined in the agreement. They must also provide indicative, and later, definitive dates for implementation of the provisions they have designated in categories B and C. • Category A: Provisions that an LDC member designates for implementation within one year of the TFA entering into force • Category B: Provisions that an LDC member designates for implementation after a transitional period after entry into force of the TFA • Category C: Provisions that an LDC member designates for implementation after a transitional period and the provision of assistance and support for capacity building Among the corridor countries, Tanzania and the DRC are yet to notify ratification of the TFA. The WTO database also indicates that the five measures that were notified the most under category C by Sub-Saharan African countries were related to (i) the single window (Article 10.4); (ii) average release times (Article 7.6); (iii) risk management (Article 7.4); (iv) enquiry points (Article 1.3); and (v) border agency cooperation (Article 8). While SADC countries have made notifications to the TFA Facility on Category B and C designations and made requests for Technical Assistance and Capacity Building (TACB) on Category C commitments, this report is limiting its scope to measures that impact the efficiency of cross-border operations at the country’s border posts. These are shown in Table 5.1. Table 5.1. Status of implementation of priority measures impacting cross-border movements Description Angola Bostwan DRC Eswatini Malawi Mozambique Namibia South Zambia Zimbabwe TFA Article Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Category Category Category Category Category Category Category Category Category Category Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 69 date date date date date date date date date date Advance Rulings 3 B 30.6.24 A B 20.8.19 B TBD C TBD C 31/12/21 C 31/12/21 A B 31/12/21 B 31/12/20 Pre-arrival processing 7.1 A A B 20.8.19 C TBD A A A A C 31/12/22 B 31/12/21 payments Electronic 7.2 A A B 20.8.19 A A A A A C 31/12/25 B 31/12/21 Release from final Determination of Customs duties Separation of 7.3 B 30.6.23 A B A B TBD A A A B 31/12/22 A 30.8.19 Management 7.4 C 30.6.23 A B 20.8.19 C TBD C TBD C 31/12/22 C 31/12/22 A C 31/12/25 C 31/12/23 Risk Clearance 7.5 A B 31/12/21 B 20.8.19 C TBD C TBD C 31/12/22 C 31/12/22 A C 31/12/25 C 31/12/27 Audit Post Angola Bostwan DRC Eswatini Malawi Mozambique Namibia South Zambia Zimbabwe Description TFA Article Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Definitive Category Category Category Category Category Category Category Category Category Category date date date date date date date date date date Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 70 Trade Facilitation Measures for Authorised 7.7 C 30.6.23 B 31/12/21 B 20.8.19 C TBD C TBD C 31/12/23 C 31/12/23 A C 31/12/24 B 31/12/22 Operators Border Agency Cooperation 8 C 30.6.24 A C 20.2.22 C TBD C TBD C 31/12/23 C 31/12/23 A C 31/12/23 A Customs Control for import under goods intended Movement of 9 A A B 20.8.19 B TBD C TBD A A A A A Window 10.4 C 30.6.24 C 31/2/27 C C TBD C TBD C C B 22/02/38 C 31/12/30 C 31/12/29 Single 20.2.22 Freedom of 11 B 30.6.23 B 31/12/20 A B TBD A C C A C 31/12/30 B 31/12/20 Transit Cooperation 12 B 30.6.24 A A C TBD A A A A C 31/12/38 A Customs Source: Derived from Nathan and Associates (2020) with updates. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 71 5.4. The challenge of implementing TFA measures The TFA provisions aim to expedite the movement, release, and clearance of goods, including goods in transit. However, the TFA does not deal with the whole spectrum of what is generally considered “trade facilitation”, and many infrastructural and transport issues were not incorporated into the agreement. The scope of the TFA is limited to clarification and extension of trade facilitation-related disciplines already provided for by one or more specific GATT articles, namely Article V (Freedom of Transit), Article VIII (Fees and Formalities connected with Importation and Exportation), and Article X (Publication and Administration of Trade Regulations). In addition, it also provides for effective cooperation between customs and other relevant authorities on trade facilitation and customs compliance issues. Six of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) countries are land-locked (Botswana, Lesotho, Malawi, Eswatini, Zambia and Zimbabwe). Inefficiency and high costs in cross-border trade have detrimental impacts on their ability to participate in global, as well as in regional trade. SADC states are parties to several agreements that aim at facilitating trade, but the implementation of the resulting obligations remains a chronic challenge. Despite the unequivocal evidence that the primary beneficiaries of the TFA will be those countries which are fully compliant with all its provisions, a significant number of countries are not compliant with the agreement. The problem is domestic, due to inadequate policy coordination, or because the issue is not high on the agenda of their governments. Africa has the lowest implementation rate among all regions, at 37.3 percent (with the implementation rate of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) at 35.8 percent). The rate of implementation commitments of the TFA in the 15 COMESA Member States stands at 44.64 percent. Country specific implementation rates of the WTO TFA are in: Mauritius 86.6 percent. Rwanda 84 percent, Congo DR 81.9 percent, Seychelles 81.5 percent, Malawi 63 percent, Zimbabwe 62.2 percent, Tunisia 59.7 percent, Burundi 33.3 percent, Egypt 23.1 percent, Zambia 21.8 percent, Eswatini 10.1 percent, Madagascar 8,8 percent, Uganda 8.4 percent, Kenya 7.6 percent, and Djibouti 1.7 percent. The table below, Table 4.4., shows the status of corridor countries regarding implementation of the WTO TFA. Table 5.2. TFA implementation rates for the corridor countries Future implementation Member State Current State of Implementation of commitments rate of commitments Current Cat A Cat B Cat C Cat B Cat C Angola 26.9 22.7 4.2% 0 51.7 21.4 Botswana 81 28.2 67.2 4.6 14.4 4.6 Congo (DR) 81.9 42 39.9 18.1 0 18.1 Eswatini 10.1 9.7 0.4 0 42 47.7 Malawi 63 63 0 0 10.1 26.9 Mozambique 65.5 65.5 10.5 23.9 10.5 23.9 Namibia 51.3 51.3 4.2 44.5 4.2 44.5 South Africa 90.3 90.3 9.7 0 9.7 0 Zambia 23.97 5.5 27.7 66.8 9.23 66.8 Zimbabwe 53.65 34.9 50 15.1 31.25 15.1 Source: Study calculations from Notifications List WTO TFA Facility. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 72 In the interim, the main priorities for the Member States along the corridors are: • The need to develop a more comprehensive CBM and Corridor Management model. This will require discussion with the different agencies at the border, a change in current operating practice, greater ICT and most importantly, the adoption of risk management concepts • More effective sharing of information among stakeholders engaged in trade and transport facilitation both at and behind the border • Domestic implementation of regional commitments. This remains a major challenge. There is a need for coordinated, simplified and harmonized operation of the standard trade related disciplines, including customs administration, trade remedies, trade facilitation, non-tariff barriers, standards, dispute settlement, domestic regulation of service and investment. The current status in the RECs and member states indicates that realizing this will take time. • The need to introduce a simple, effective, efficient transit management system. • The need for further technology to enhance efficiency at the borders and remove outdated systems and cumbersome international trade procedures. Effective leadership is needed to ensure sub-regional coordination to implement measures that will have the greatest impact on addressing the inefficiencies of the SADC transport corridors. The establishment of a Corridor Management Institution would be an key element in the corridor management model discussed above. 5.4.1. Trade Facilitation Committees The task of establishing trade facilitation committees or task forces is underway. Progress has been made by some RECs such as the EAC and SADC, who have established Regional Trade Facilitation Committees which link to the national trade facilitation committees for the purposes of implementing not only the TFA, but also other trade facilitation measures. While a number of countries have established national trade facilitation committees and other arrangements for implementing the TFA, the capacity and focus of some national committees is sub-optimal. 5.4.2. Informal Cross Border Trade Issues Small scale cross-border trade (SSCBT) plays an important role in generating jobs and ensuring food security in many African economies. Properly harnessed, this trade can have positive macro- economic and social implications. It also has the potential to play a critical role in poverty alleviation efforts. One estimate is that small scale cross border trade was worth US$549 million and US$103 million for Uganda and Rwanda respectively, in 2019 (Imani Consultants, 2018). Understanding this trade has implications on regional food security and poverty, given that food items are constantly moving from regions of surplus to deficit and remote areas. Anecdotal evidence of flows at other borders such as Kasumbalesa on the Zambia-DRC border shows high traffic volumes of people and goods that qualify for small scale definition. At the Kasumbalesa crossing, for example, goods are transported to the Zambian border. These are mostly sold to Congolese traders, who bring them across the border into the DRC, often via informal channels. Altogether, several million people are engaged in trade between Zambia and the DRC. One estimate is that women form as much as 70 percent of the small-scale traders, who then employ young men as bicycle carriers. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 73 The Kasumbalesa Border Crossing Point There is a Public Private Partnership One Stop Border processing facility at Kasumbalesa that processes an average of 1,200 trucks per day, paying a fee of US$100 per truck. However, even with this facility, there is always a daily queue of trucks that can reach 20 km in length. One of the major challenges is the road condition from Chililabombwe – the town bordering the Border Post (30 kms) and from Kasumbalesa to Whisky (20km) which is in poor condition. Another challenge is that the border has no passenger clearance bay. This makes the border very congested with people milling around, creating an atmosphere of insecurity, especially for the women traders. There is a need for reform in formalities – such as procedures and documents – and access to information. Women traders face specific barriers at the borders: lack of transparency and awareness of rules; difficulties in obtaining required documents; access to trade information and trader networks; and poor conditions and harassment at the border. Women represent most of informal cross border traders, and they benefit from the economic opportunities it creates (Brenton et al., 2014). Informal cross border trade is critical, especially for poor households, as it can constitute their only income source. In Southern Africa, a considerable proportion of female-headed households tend to be poorer than male-headed households (UNCTAD, 2018), which is one of the reasons behind women constituting 70 percent of informal traders (FAO, 2017). However, regardless of the opportunities that small informal trade can bring, it comes with specific challenges for women. Trade is not gender neutral, as it impacts women and men differently. Even if the impact of trade on women is context specific; evidence shows that women are affected differently than men depending on the role they play within trade value chains. As consumers, women are affected directly by the variation of relative prices of imported goods. They are also indirectly affected through changes in wages, which might impact their bargaining power within the household (World Bank and WTO, 2020). A study sampling 54 developing countries shows that reducing import tariffs can increase the incomes of female-headed households. Conversely, a reduction in prices might translate into governments needing to compensate for reduction in revenue through increase in taxes, or dropping expenditure in areas benefitting women directly, such as health and education (Hendricks, 2001). There is also a gender gap in agriculture in SADC that directly impacts women’s participation in trade. Changes in agriculture, incentivized by trade liberalization, can create benefits for everyone. However, trade openness has not impacted women’s employment share in agriculture (UNCTAD, 2018). Based on the findings of UNCTAD’s regional analysis, SADC exports do not affect women’s employment in agriculture significantly. Increases in exports to non-SADC countries are found to have a negative impact on female employment. This could be due to the shift from low-value-added to high-value-added exports, where women have little participation. Besides tariff-related barriers, women are relatively more affected by non-tariff barriers as they more likely own and run small and medium enterprises (SMEs). SMEs are largely impacted by product standards and certification procedures; burdensome customs and bureaucratic processes; and processing import licenses which make it more costly for them to import and export. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 74 In addition, women’s discrimination in different areas constrain them from fully benefitting from the opportunities brought by trade. Gender roles and stereotypes in the household – where women juggle between household and remunerated activities – push them to select lower paid and informal jobs that offer more flexible work conditions (UN, 2022). This time poverty also limits their decision- making within the household, undermines their position, and hinders their possibility to access other productive resources such as credit, land, education, or training opportunities. In addition, women traders are disproportionately affected by border obstacles, including inappropriate infrastructure without warehousing, sanitary facilities, lighting, information desks and proper accommodation (UN, 2022). Finally, women are negatively impacted by corruption and sexual harassment at the border. Interactions with security personnel and border officials, who are mainly men, puts them in a situation of unequal power relations in a society where women face discrimination (Klopp et al., 2021). Informal cross-border trade in the region occurs in two distinctive eco-socio systems, characterized by the thickness of the border. Within each system, there are distinct factors at play, and the constraints and challenges facing the various actors differ too. The first ecosystem is characterized by the following: • It takes place between communities of close proximity either side of the border (e.g., Kasumbalesa and Chirundu) • There are elevated levels of human traffic across the borders, predominantly female • For this type of trade, the border is thin, with low fixed costs for entry • There is a high seasonality of traded products as producers supply CBT channels at times of surplus yields • Small consignments of goods (below the $2000 threshold of the COMESA Simplified Trade Regime [STR])9 • Traders link with producers – often through the facilitation of a broker – and buy consignments of goods. They then cross the border – either via formal channels such as the STR, or via informal “panya” routes – and sell produce at margins at markets on the other side The second ecosystem of informal trade is characterized by the following: • Large formal channel for intra-regional and extra-regional trade, linking major distribution and logistics hubs, ports, urban industrial centers, etc., with neighboring markets • Border is thick, with high fixed costs for entry • Trade is less seasonal as produce originates from formalized commercial channels • Formal transporters bundle goods into consignments with a sub-$2000 value, and assign bundles to individual traders • Individual traders then transport produce across the border from point A to point B for a fee, at which point they are joined again as part of a larger consignment. 9 Although this is not being implemented at Kasumbalesa. Instead, Customs have designated an informal “Walkway” system that allows small scale informal traders to cross either on foot or bicycle and trade across the border. Based on Customs monitoring, this walkway is used by over 12,500 bicycles per day carrying main food and other consumer goods to the DRC. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 75 As thick borders become thinner with OSBP developments and implementation of TF reforms, employment in cross border trade will decline with the resulting social consequences. Cross-border informal trade and employment are much lower at relatively thin borders when compared to thick borders. This is evidenced by the low level of informal trade at the border between Rwanda and Uganda, as opposed to the higher levels at the thicker border with DRC. Although the thinning of borders will create new economic opportunities, these will need to be supplemented with support to ease the transition for many small traders (Imani Consultants, 2018). 5.5. Conclusions and Recommendations The WTO TFA came into force on 22 February 2017. The TFA aims to achieve regional coordination either by mutual recognition of another country’s legislation, or by the implementation of rules by a central authority, applicable in all countries. Sub-Saharan Africa, however, has the lowest implementation rate among all regions, at 35.8 percent. There are good reasons for this: the level of political will to implement regional agreements and pursue the necessary policy changes is often not forthcoming at all levels of governments. In addition, although many African countries are not starting from scratch when it comes to implementing the TFA, actually implementing the recommendations can be cumbersome and costly in the short term. In the interim, the main priorities for the Member States along the corridors are: • The need for the development of a more comprehensive CBM and Corridor Management model. This will require discussion with the different agencies at the border, a change in current operating practice, greater of ICT and most importantly, the adoption of risk management concepts • The need for more effective sharing of information among stakeholders engaged in trade and transport facilitation, both at and behind the border • Domestic implementation of regional commitments, which remains a major challenge. There is a need for coordinated, simplified and harmonized operation of the standard trade related disciplines, including customs administration, trade remedies, trade facilitation, non-tariff barriers, standards, dispute settlement, domestic regulation of service and investment. The current status in the RECs and member states indicates that realizing this will take time • The need to introduce a simple, effective, efficient transit management system • Further technology to enhance efficiency at the borders and remove outdated systematic and cumbersome international trade procedures • Effective leadership is needed to ensure sub-regional coordination to implement measures that will have the greatest impact on addressing the inefficiencies of the SADC transport corridors. The establishment of a Corridor Management Institution would be an key element in the corridor management model discussed above. Women represent most informal cross border traders and are disproportionally affected by challenges at borders. Some measures to address some of the barriers that they face include, but are not limited to, are the development of codes of conducts or “charters for cross-border traders”. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 76 It could also include the development of mechanisms to report cases of abuse (both corruption and sexual harassment), training and sensitization to border officials, and supporting the employment of women as custom officials and security personnel at the borders. Complementary policies are relevant to make women more competitive in the market by providing, for instance, skills on financial inclusion, negotiation, and capacity building for better understanding border regulations. Interventions such as One Stop Borders or those involving technology can also help make processes more agile and reduce face-to-face interaction, contributing to reduce the risks that women face from human interaction. Border infrastructure needs to consider the needs of women in terms of health, safety, and violence prevention environmental design. The generation of sex disaggregated data is necessary to measure the multiple dimensions of trade on women to adequately inform policies and practices (UNCTAD, 2018). Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 77 References Amoako-Tuffor J et al. (2016). Trade Facilitation and Economic Transformation in Africa. Paper presented at the African Transformation Forum, Kigali, 14–15 March 2016. Brenton, et.al. (2014). Improving behavior at borders to promote trade formalization. The Charter for Cross-Border Traders. Washington: World Bank. Available in https://documents1.worldbank.org/ curated/en/894601468346146304/pdf/894730BRI0Char0Box0385291B00PUBLIC0.pdf. FAO (2017). Formalization of informal trade in Africa. Trends, experiences, and socio-economic inputs. Available in https://www.fao.org/3/i7101e/i7101e.pdf Imani Consultants (2018). Regional TMEA CBT Strategy. Jacqueline M. Klopp, et.al. (2021). Corruption, Gender and Small-Scale Cross Border Trade in East Africa: A review: https://ace.globalintegrity.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/03/Corruption-Gender- and-Small-Scale-Cross-Border-Trade-1-1.pdf. Lindiwe Hendricks. (2001). SADC Free Trade Agreement: Making sure that Women Benefit. Agenda: Empowering Women for Gender Equity, No. 48, Globalization: Challenging Dominant Discourses. Nathan and Associates (2020). Study on the Trade-Carrying Infrastructure Gap in One African Region. UNCTAD. (2018). Trade and Gender Linkages: An Analysis of the Southern African Development Community. Available at: https://unctad.org/system/files/official-document/ditc2018d1_en.pdf. United Nations. (2022). Linking Trade and Gender towards Sustainable Development. An Analytical and Policy Framework. Available at: https://unctad.org/publication/linking-trade-and-gender- towards-sustainable-development. World Bank and WTO (2020). Women and Trade. The Role of Trade in Promoting Gender Equality. Washington. Available at: https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/trade/publication/women-and- trade-the-role-of-trade-in-promoting-womens-equality. World Trade Organization (2023). The TFA: An Overview. Available at: https://www.wto.org/english/ tratop_e/tradfa_e/tradfatheagreement_e.htm. Chapter 6 The Social Cost of Regional Trade Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 79 6.1. Introduction There are significant impacts associated with transport and trade in southern Africa. These are the social or economic costs (the externalities) imposed on a third party who is not directly involved in the trade or transport sector. They include the non-insured parts of road safety crashes, increased incidents of disease, and human trafficking. These external and/or social costs can be significant, particularly in countries with poor enforcement, and/or large informal sectors. Communities living along key trade corridors are more vulnerable to these negative effects of trade. This section draws on and complements the earlier work undertaken by the World Bank in reviewing road safety in Botswana, Namibia, Lesotho, Eswatini and South Africa (referred to as “the five countries”),10 and extends that to cover Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe (together forming eight countries). The final sub-section reviews the relationship between improving connectivity and: (i) the incidence of HIV/STIs; and (ii) human trafficking along the key trading corridors. 6.2. Ensuring Safety in Corridor Communities The African continent accounts for 20 percent of global road traffic fatalities, numbering nearly 272,000 per annum. It accounts for 14 percent of the total world population and 3 percent of the registered vehicles. Africa has the highest road traffic fatality rate among World Health Organization (WHO) regions with a rate of 26.6 per 100,000 population in 2016. The burden of road traffic fatalities is disproportionately borne by low- and middle-income countries in the region, which together account for almost 100 percent of this burden. The African continent has a particularly high proportion of vulnerable road users, with pedestrians accounting for 34 percent of all the road traffic fatalities. There are also notable variations in road traffic fatalities by user types. In Sub-Saharan Africa, road crash injuries (RCIs) are the fourth leading cause of death among men aged 15-49. The need to strengthen road safety outcomes worldwide was highlighted in the 2015 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). SDG 3.6 set a target to reduce the number of road crash deaths and injuries by 50 percent by 2030, and SDG 11.2 set targets to provide access to safe, affordable, accessible, and sustainable transport systems for all. This includes improving road safety, notably by expanding public transport, with special attention to the needs of those in vulnerable situations, women, children, persons with disabilities and the elderly (UNECE, 2020). The countries that have been successful in tackling road safety have generally employed a holistic and multisectoral Safe Systems approach: (i) Road Safety Management; (ii) Safer Roads and Mobility; (iii) Safer Speeds (a new pillar); (iv) Safer Vehicles; (v) Safer Road Users; and (vi) Post-Crash Response. The Safe System approach recognizes that humans as road users are fallible and will make mistakes. There are also limits to the kinetic energy exchange which humans can tolerate (e.g., during the rapid deceleration associated with a crash) before serious injury or death occurs. A key part of the Safe System approach requires that the road system be designed to take account of these errors and vulnerabilities so that road users can avoid serious injury or death on the road. Like most of Africa, improving road safety is a critical priority for the Southern Africa region This section draws on World Bank (2021) A Review of Road Safety in Southern Africa. Washington D.C. 10 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 80 countries. Botswana, Eswatini (formerly Swaziland), Lesotho, Namibia, South Africa, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe all suffer much higher rates of death from road crashes. Furthermore, projections show that the rate of deaths is likely to increase substantially by 2030 unless strong proactive action is taken. 6.3. The Road Safety Diagnostic 6.3.1. Death and Serious Injury Statistics The total population of the nine countries of the southern Africa region was 142.3 million in 2016, with South Africa making up most of this at 56.02 million. Official numbers of annual road deaths are just over 25,000 for the nine countries combined, which is about 20 percent below the UN-modelled estimates of nearly 30,000. Levels of underreporting vary from 3 percent in South Africa to as high as 50 percent in Lesotho. Fatality rates are therefore between 20 and 39 per 100,000 population per annum, as shown in Table 6.1., with the average rate for the five countries being around 29 per 100,000 population. This is substantially worse than the world average (18.2 per 100,000 pop.). However, the average rate for the five countries is much worse than the best performers in the region (Mauritius, which is at around 12 deaths per 100,000 pop., and Nigeria at 21). In comparison to the global leaders (e.g., Switzerland, Norway, Singapore, and Sweden), the rate of deaths per 100,000 population is around ten times greater. If these five countries performed at a similar level to these global leaders, around 15,000 lives would be saved every year. Table 6.1. Population, road deaths and death rates per population for Southern Africa 2019 Country- WHO reported death Population GBD death GHE death deaths (2016, rate per Type of Country (millions, estimates estimates in brackets 100,000 performance 2019) (2019) (2019) 2019 if pop. available) (2019) Angola 32.4 2845 9,253 8,317 25.7 Botswana 2.5 450 (457) 574 609 24.3 Eswatini 1.2 203 397 384 32.9 Lesotho 2.2 318 923 679 30.5 Malawi 18.9 1122 2,077 6,221 33.0 Namibia 2.4 731 575 868 35.5 South Africa 58.1 14,071 (12,503) 19,239 13,014 22.4 Zambia 18.4 3586 (1462) 2,285 3,654 19.9 Zimbabwe 15.4 1721 2,554 6,037 39.3 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 81 Country- WHO reported death Population GBD death GHE death deaths (2016, rate per Type of Country (millions, estimates estimates in brackets 100,000 performance 2019) (2019) (2019) 2019 if pop. available) (2019) The best- Mauritius 1.3 144 (144) 165 155 12.3 performing countries Nigeria 203.3 5,053 (5,483) 18,508 41,693 20.5 regionally Norway 5.3 135 (108) 202 114 2.1 The best- performing Singapore 5.7 141 (117) 168 121 2.1 countries Sweden 10.3 270 (221) 368 315 3.1 globally Switzerland 8.6 216 (187) 338 193 2.3 Sources: WHO (2021); IHME (2020); World Bank (2021); World Bank (2022). Breakdowns by road user type are provided in Table 6.2. Fatalities in four-wheeled vehicles comprise the highest proportion of deaths, varying from 36 percent in Zambia to 65 percent in South Africa. The fatalities by four-wheelers are significantly higher in these eight southern Africa countries compared to the regional and global averages. Pedestrians make up most of the remainder in all eight countries, comprising between 31 percent and 49 percent of road deaths, usually a clear indicator of inappropriately high vehicle travel speeds in areas of higher pedestrian activity. Improvements in reporting mean that more deaths are being attributed to two- or three-wheelers in all Southern African countries. Table 6.2. Road fatalities by transport mode for countries in Southern Africa 2019 Four-wheelers Two- or three- Cyclists Pedestrians Unknown Country (%) wheelers (%) (%) (%) (%) Botswana 58 4 2 36 1 Eswatini 56 5 2 37 1 Lesotho 53 4 1 40 1 Malawi 46 7 4 42 <1 Namibia 55 4 2 39 1 South Africa 65 3 1 31 1 Zambia 36 4 10 49 1 Zimbabwe 55 3 4 34 4 Southern Africa Region 59 4 2 34 1 Global 37 19 5 38 1 Source: World Bank (2020) Global Road Safety Facility Country Profiles. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 82 While fatalities are a tragedy for the families of those involved, the societal burden of serious injury is equal to or more significant. Seriously injured persons are estimated at around a quarter of a million annually, resulting in an estimated US$28 billion cost for fatalities and serious injuries. This makes up one-twelfth of GDP across the region, varying between 7.9 percent in Botswana to 10 percent in Namibia (Table 6.3.). Table 6.3. Serious injury and fatal/injury numbers and costs for Southern Africa. Seriously Cost of fatality Proportion of Life years GDP, 2016 Country injured, 2016 & serious injury, GDP, 2016 lost, 2016 (per (US$ est.) (est.) 2016 (US$ est.) (% est.) 100,000 pop.) Angola - - - - - Botswana 8,025 1.24b 15.65b 7.9 773 Eswatini 5,415 0.34b 3.721b 8.9 1,935 Lesotho 9,570 0.22b 2.291b 9.6 2,330 Malawi - - - - - Namibia 11,310 1.14b 11.31b 10.1 1,117 South Africa 217,605 25.47b 295.3b 8.6 1,518 Zambia - - - - - Zimbabwe - - - - - Total 251,925 28.41b 328.3b 8.7 1,513 Africa region 4,054,260 128b 1,422.2b 9.0 1,149 Source: World Bank, (2020). The extent of these costs emphasizes not only the human impact of road crashes but their enormous economic impact. The direct and indirect costs of road deaths and serious injuries together in southern Africa represent the entire output of Uganda or Zambia.11 Life years lost include fatalities and serious injury impacts. It is noted that the life years lost per 100,000 population, shown in the final column of Table 6.3., in Namibia (1,117) and especially Botswana (773) are well below the southern Africa average figure of 1,513. Given the high rate of fatalities in Namibia, it seems likely that serious injuries are under-reported in that country. Due to the higher percentage of road crash fatalities and injuries in the economically productive age group, higher life years lost will severely and directly impact the country’s economy. The death rate is positively related to GDP loss. Among the five countries, Namibia suffers from road safety issues most with the highest estimated GDP loss. Along these lines, a study was completed on the medical costs of road crashes. This study identified that the economic burden of road traffic crashes on Botswana’s health system is substantial, totaling an estimated US$18.2m, or around 9.2 percent of GDP/capita. The highest cost injuries (per event) were those involving pedestrians. Across all crash types, head injuries had the greatest share of total costs at 35 percent. Health costs per injury were calculated to be US$1,586 per event, amounting to just under one percent (0.88 percent) of total health expenditure. The study concluded In 2017 (Worldometer, 2018) 11 Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 83 that the reduction of both deaths and injuries from road crashes would have a notable positive effect on health expenditures through avoided costs. The study focused on medical costs, and no other associated costs (such as loss of income, damage to vehicles and property, travel delays, etc.) which are also likely to be substantial. Table 6.4. Demographic information of fatalities and injuries of road users Ratio of Male to Female Percentage of Male in Road Crash Country Fatalities in 15-49 years Fatalities and Injuries in 15-64 years Botswana 2:1 72 Eswatini 4:1 81 Lesotho 4:1 81 Namibia 3:1 73 South Africa 3:1 83 Africa Region 2:1 65 Sources: World Bank (2020). Figure 6.1. Reported Road traffic fatalities ratios by gender (2016) 2.57:1 2.45:1 1.70:1 2.67:1 3.35:1 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Botswana Eswatini Lesotho Namibia South Africa Male Female Sources: WHO (2018). Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 84 From a gender perspective, men are more likely to die in a road crash than their female counterparts, especially in the economically productive age group. The ratios of male to female fatalities in 15-49 years are higher compared to these of the all-age group combined data, as shown in Table 6.4. and Figure 6.1. The disproportionate traffic fatalities for young men reflect deeper issues of limited mobility, access, and opportunity for women. Part of the gender gap may be down to user behavior, travel patterns, and social and economic life inclusion. It worth noting that the ratios of female to male labor force participation rate of these five countries are all lower than the average number of 84.61 percent of Sub-Saharan Africa (excluding high income) (modelled ILO estimate, World Bank, 2016). The African continent accounts for 20 percent of global road traffic fatalities, numbering nearly 272,000 per annum. It accounts for 14 percent of the total world population and 3 percent of the registered vehicles. Africa has the highest road traffic fatality rate among WHO regions, with a rate of 26.6 per 100,000 population in 2016. The burden of road traffic fatalities is disproportionately borne by low- and middle-income countries in the region, which together account for almost 100 percent of this burden. The African continent has a particularly high proportion of vulnerable road users, with pedestrians accounting for 34 percent of all road traffic fatalities. There are also notable variations in road traffic fatalities by user types. In Sub-Saharan Africa, road crash injuries (RCIs) are the fourth leading cause of death among men aged 15-49. • Around 266,000 deaths and serious injuries occur every year in these five Southern Africa countries from road crashes (14,500 deaths; 252,000 serious injuries) • Road crashes have an immense impact on the victims and their families involved, also leading to a considerable cost to the community and economic loss to the country. In financial terms, the cost is estimated to be US$328 billion every year, or around 9.0 percent of GDP • Fatality rates in these countries are much higher than in the best-performing countries in the region and around ten times compared to the best-performing countries globally. Although these five countries are all quite like the Africa average (in deaths per population), Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia are above the average • Many fatalities and serious injuries could be prevented if these countries improved their road safety performance, even to a point that matches the best-performing neighbors in the region Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 85 • Most crashes involve four-wheel vehicles, the proportions in these countries are much higher than the regional average of 51percent and the global average of 36percent. There is also a large number involving pedestrians with a third of the total deaths. This is a consistent finding in all five countries • There is a lack of data to identify the underlying causes of these crashes in detail. However, speeding is likely to be a problem, especially for pedestrians. More broadly, speeding is known to cause around half of the road deaths in LMICs (Staton et al., 2016) • Lack of infrastructure is also a known issue that can result in severe crash outcomes for vulnerable road users, and more broadly for motorized road users as well • Men are more likely to die in road crashes than their female counterparts, especially in the economically productive age group. This is the case globally. It reflects gender disparity issues in terms of limited mobility, access, and opportunity for women12 Countries in Southern Africa would benefit from strengthened enforcement (drink driving, speeding, seat belt wearing and helmet use); improved pedestrian and cyclist safety based on a succinct road safety strategy; adoption of UNECE safer vehicle regulations; safety standards for all new and used vehicles; and improved pre-hospital emergency care services. Some of the readily available measures to treat the public health crisis that fatal and serious injury road transport crashes have delivered include: • introduction of speed limits appropriate to road use and available infrastructure investment; • enforcement of compliance with legal speeds; • development and funding of infrastructure safety programs to retrofit unsafe sections of the existing network and achieve infrastructure safety for all road users on the network (especially for safer pedestrian and cyclist movement); • adoption of UNECE safer vehicle regulations for all new vehicles and implementation of safety standards for imported vehicles; • lowering of the legal blood alcohol concentration limit (0.05 g/dl for experienced drivers and 0.02 g/dl for new drivers and professional drivers); • improved protection to pedestrians through the provision of safer infrastructure ‘mass action’ programs, as well as speed management at key risk locations (e.g., schools, markets, villages); • enforcement of seat belt wearing and helmet use; and • improved regulations relating to public transport, including vehicle safety requirements (especially seat belt provision), infrastructure support, and monitoring of drivers for alcohol and speed. Road safety management practices must be developed in parallel to facilitate the implementation of these crucial initiatives. With appropriate governmental commitment, many of these could be readily implemented and would be of substantial benefit to road safety across southern Africa. The ratios of female to male labour force participation rate are Botswana (83.986 percent), Eswatini (84.531 percent), 12 Lesotho (78.936 percent), Namibia (84.147 percent), and South Africa (77.567 percent) (World Bank, 2016). Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 86 6.4. The Challenge of HIV/STIs infection in Corridor Communities Road transport along transit corridors and at the main maritime gateways has been identified as a major factor in the spread of Human Immunodeficiency Virus/Acquired Immunodeficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS), STIs, and more recently, COVID-19. Transport workers, their spouses, and sexual partners have long been identified as vulnerable groups at high risk of HIV/AIDS, STIs and COVID-19.13 This reflects that: (a) the former are often absent from home for prolonged periods, increasing the likelihood of unsafe sexual activity; (b) there is often a lack of knowledge among long-distance truck drivers as to risky and safe behavior; (c) there is often higher than average levels and frequency of alcohol consumption among this group, increasing the incidence of risky behavior; and (d) increased mobility can itself facilitate HIV transmission from areas of high to low prevalence, nationally, and across borders. Truck drivers undertake long-distance trips and experience long delays at border crossings, and shorter delays during loading/unloading at their destination e.g., a port. During this time, they may frequent bars and interact with sex workers. Depending on where they are from, they may have had some HIV education, but there is often an unwillingness to internalize HIV messages and change sexual behavior. Foreign seafarers are often on three to six-month employment contracts with shore leave as short as two days at times. While on shore they may engage in one-off unprotected sex and high-risk sexual activities with sex workers or may establish medium-term relationships with local partners who may have other sexual partners (sex workers as “girlfriends”). They are unlikely to have received HIV education prior to arrival in southern Africa, as they typically come from countries with low prevalence. As with foreign seafarers, there is widespread alcohol misuse among local seafarers, which may be driven by a lack of recreational activities while on shore leave, separation from family, and the inability to communicate with family and loved ones while on ships. Sex work links truck drivers, seafarers, and sex workers in a triangle of risk. Transactional sex further ties sedentary populations (local girlfriends, other clients of sex workers) to this network, linking ports and road corridors to other locations in southern Africa and to other parts of the world. The studies have also shown that mobile workers associated with port activities, and casual workers in the port, have no access to company clinics, HIV education sessions, or medical aid. This has proven to be a major challenge for casual workers, whose only other alternative is government health clinics and hospitals. Accessing government health care is challenging, especially for casual and foreign workers, due to poor service and long wait times, fear of possible anti-foreigner attitudes, and language barriers. Commercial sex is a livelihood strategy for many women (both local and migrant), who often rely on other income-generating activities (e.g., informal trading and hairdressing) at the same time. Among their clients are members of local communities, truckers, migrant workers, immigration officers, border policemen, police officers, and healthcare workers. Sub-Saharan Africa is an increasingly important transit area for heroin smuggling, and consequently, for injecting drugs. Injecting drug use follows transport routes along Kenya, Madagascar, Mauritius, Mozambique, South Africa, and Tanzania. In Kenya, HIV prevalence amongst people who inject drugs is 18 percent, compared to 5.6 percent in the general population. A survey in the DRC found HIV prevalence amongst injecting drug users at 13.3 percent. In Tanzania, HIV prevalence amongst people who inject drugs is four times the national rate, and as high as 62 percent amongst women who inject drugs. Tuberculosis is also more prevalent amongst people who use drugs. See inter alia The World Bank Group (2008) Lessons Learned from Mainstreaming HIV/AIDS in Transport Sector Projects in 13 Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington D.C, The World Bank Group (2009) Transport against HIV/AIDS: Synthesis of Experience and Best Practice Guidelines. Transport Paper 25, Washington D.C. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 87 The 2016 Political Declaration on HIV and AIDS: On the Fast Track to Accelerating the Fight against HIV and to Ending the AIDS Epidemic by 2030, expressed with grave concern that young people between the ages of 15 and 24 account for more than one third of all new HIV infections among adults. Approximately 2,000 young people become infected with HIV each day; AIDS is also the second leading cause of death in adolescents globally. It also noted that many young people have limited access to good-quality education, nutritious food, decent employment, and recreational facilities, as well as limited access to sexual and reproductive health-care services and programs that provide the commodities, skills, knowledge, and capability they need to protect themselves from HIV. Only 36 percent of young men and 28 percent of young women (15–24) possess accurate knowledge of HIV. In addition, laws and policies in some instances exclude young people from accessing sexual and reproductive healthcare and HIV-related services, such as voluntary and confidential HIV testing, counselling, information, and education. Finally, the report recognized the importance of reducing risk-taking behavior and encouraging responsible sexual behavior, including correct and consistent use of condoms. Young women and girls in the sub-Saharan region continue to be the most affected by HIV and accounted for 32 percent of all new infections in the region in 2020, with 4,500 adolescent girls and young women becoming infected every week.14 Men under 24 account for 14 percent. Across sub- Saharan Africa, a ‘youth bulge’ in the population means that record numbers of young people have recently or will soon become sexually active. In some of the SADC Member States this age is younger than 15. If this group lacks the knowledge to make informed choices about their sexual health, the overall number of young people at risk of HIV will grow. The prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the SADC region, and specifically amongst the SADC Logistics and Transport sector, is driven by various operational and occupational factors, human (behavioral) factors, and economical factors. It is important to recognize the challenges that influence and shape the prevalence of HIV/Aids within the transport sector to focus on them and correctly determine the required interventions. Table 6.5. summarizes the primary challenges driving the high prevalence of HIV/AIDS in the sector. https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/featurestories/2022/march/20220307_women-girls-carry-heaviest-hiv- 14 burden-sub-saharan-africa Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 88 Table 6.5. Challenges from HIV/AIDS in the Transport Sector HIV/AIDS Challenges Poorly maintained road infrastructure delays trips and increases travel time for drivers – time spent away from home increases Cross-border control systems are mostly manual, with limited and outdated ICT systems which are ineffective and cause delays Lack of coordination, alignment and sharing of best practices between the different countries pertaining to corridor management, regulatory frameworks, implementation, and evaluation HIV/AIDS mitigation measures and efforts are not mainstreamed or specific to the transport sector and its unique operation environment Lack of legislated requirements for transport operators to address HIV/AIDS related occupational risk exposures, which then limits the ability to enforce, monitor and evaluate the requirements COVID-19 requirements which have led to border controls operating less hours, with reduced staff, which causes more constraints and delays More time is spent on the road and away from home by mobile workers, which makes them vulnerable to risky sexual behaviours Truck stops and safe reasonable accommodation is scarce along most corridor routes, and the alternative cheaper solutions often include being accommodated by a sexual partner – either as a one off, or a regular stop at each point of rest Shortage of skilled health care personnel and few health and wellness centres available along the corridors which also limits access to health education, treatment, reasonable/free condoms, and other related support Poverty has also increased the amount of sex workers along the corridors, where encounters are not always safe Source: World Bank. These challenges create an environment where HIV/AIDS thrives. The following recommendations will benefit both the transient and resident population of the corridor, by improving the quality of health services, and reducing the health externality from the former: • Targeted HIV/AIDS interventions for mobile workers are urgently needed in the form of refurbishing and upgrading lower-level health centers and building new ones • The purchase of essential equipment, such as CD 4 count machines, small incinerators for clinical waste Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 89 • Technical assistance to develop the capacity of the staff in the local health centers, in HIV/AIDS awareness, counseling and testing • The disposal of medical waste is also a priority 6.4.1. COVID-19 The COVID-19 pandemic and the related health protocols that were implemented further increased the strain to the already poorly-performing cross border system. To reduce the impact of these challenges, there needs to be an immediate response that protects human health, mitigates the spread of the virus, and brings relief to the economy. Table 6.6. summarizes the primary challenges to regional trade due to the COVID-19 pandemic. Table 6.6. Challenges from COVID-19 in the Transport Sector COVID-19 Challenges COVID-19 national measures impose additional, new, and different public health screening, testing, quarantine requirements. Requirements are not harmonized or coordinated across most corridors. Multiple regulatory and law enforcements agents enforce COVID-19 compliance at border posts and new additional checkpoints have been established. Extended travel times due to increased delays at border posts and checkpoints while drivers undergo COVID-19 screening, testing and mandatory quarantine, and delayed deliveries of essential goods and services, and other goods and services. Reduced border post operating hours and reduced human resources, and in some instances, border posts are closed for several days due to internal COVID-19 cases. Delays at the border lead to expiry of COVID-19 tests of drivers prior to crossing the border. Reduced crew and vehicle utilization because of extended and new inspection and checking requirements and quarantine requirements. Interventions for drivers to limit social contact along their journey are urgently required. Measures aimed at containing the spread of the COVID-19 virus are not implemented in coordination with other countries. This is also because the risk levels each country faces differ. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 90 COVID-19 Challenges Unavailability of COVID-19 testing stations along the major routes and roads means some border posts continue to experience shortages of testing equipment and supplies, resulting in testing backlog and queues. Driver fatigue due to longer working hours and restrictions on the number of crew members in a truck cabin leading to road safety risks. Source: World Bank. 6.5. Human Trafficking The issue of cross border human trafficking in Sub-Saharan Africa affecting women and girls is important, but difficult to measure accurately. While the nature of trafficking flows of African victims seems to be global, most trafficking remains regional (UNODC, 2022). About 15 percent of victims detected in Sub-Saharan Africa are tracked across borders from another Sub-Saharan Africa country (UNODC, 2022). Collecting data on trafficking of people is challenging, as cross border trafficking of victims happens in the context of illegality, informal or unregulated sectors, the capacity of organized crime to hide operations, and poor care-seeking behaviors from survivors. In the Eastern Africa context, weak capacity and law enforcement at borders has made it more difficult to investigate, prosecute, and track trafficking cases (IOM, 2008). Efforts to capture data and address cross border trafficking becomes more complicated under situations such as COVID-19, where there was a drop in the detection of cases (down by 21 percent, UNODC (2022)). Other events, like climate change and conflict, increase people’s vulnerability to trafficking (UNODC, 2022). Cross-border collaboration, law enforcement, awareness, and capacity building of border officials to detect cases can be contributing factors to account and provide appropriate responses to cross-border trafficking cases (IOM, 2008). 6.6. Conclusions and Recommendations The African continent accounts for 20percent of global road traffic fatalities, numbering nearly 272,000 per annum. It accounts for 14percent of the total world population and 3percent of the registered vehicles. Africa has the highest road traffic fatality rate among World Health Organization (WHO) regions with a rate of 26.6 per 100,000 population in 2016. The burden of road traffic fatalities is disproportionately borne by low- and middle-income countries in the region, which together account for almost 100 percent of this burden. The African continent has a particularly high proportion of vulnerable road users, with pedestrians accounting for 34 percent of all the road traffic fatalities. There are also notable variations in road traffic fatalities by road user types. In Sub-Saharan Africa, road crash injuries (RCIs) are the fourth leading cause of death among men aged 15-49. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 91 A dedicated road safety program is well-warranted and would yield a benefit-cost ratio (BCR) of five and more, meaning that for each dollar invested in road safety, at least US$5 would be saved in the costs of road crash deaths and injuries. Other recommended priorities for improved road safety over the coming decade include promoting shifts to more sustainable and safer transport modes; enhanced vehicle safety; safer transport for children; more stringent safety requirements for vehicles and transport services procurement; safe speed management; infrastructure safety; and potential safety gains from modern technologies (WHO, 2019). Countries in Southern Africa would benefit from strengthened enforcement (drink driving, speeding, seat belt wearing and helmet use), implementation of informed actions to improve pedestrian and cyclist safety based on a succinct road safety strategy, adoption of UNECE safer vehicle regulations and safety standards for all new and used vehicles and improved pre-hospital emergency care services. Some of the readily available ‘vaccines’ to treat the public health crisis that fatal and serious injury road transport crashes have delivered include: • introduction of speed limits appropriate to road use and available infrastructure investment; • enforcement of compliance with legal speeds; • development and funding of infrastructure safety programs to retrofit unsafe sections of the existing network to achieve infrastructure safety for all road users on the network (especially for safer pedestrian and cyclist movement); • adoption of UNECE safer vehicle regulations for all new vehicles and implementation of safety standards for imported vehicles; • lowering of the legal blood alcohol concentration limit (0.05 g/dl for experienced drivers and 0.02 g/dl for new drivers and professional drivers); • improved protection to pedestrians through the provision of safer infrastructure ‘mass action’ programs, as well as speed management at key risk locations (e.g., schools, markets, villages); • enforcement of seat belt wearing and helmet use; and • improved regulations relating to public transport, including vehicle safety requirements (especially seat belt provision), infrastructure support, and monitoring of drivers for alcohol and speed. Road safety management practices must be developed in parallel to facilitate the implementation of these crucial initiatives. With appropriate governmental commitment, many of these could be readily implemented and would be of substantial benefit to road safety across southern Africa. In addition, insufficient attention is also being paid to the vulnerability of the transport and transport-adjacent communities in southern Africa to HIV/AIDS, other diseases, and trafficking. Lack of HIV education, multiple short-term sex partners, widespread alcohol misuse and injecting drug use, lack of government health clinics and hospitals, or insufficient access to health clinics for foreigners, are all problems contributing to the higher incidence of disease. Women and girls are also vulnerable to human trafficking, with about 15 percent of victims detected in Sub-Saharan Africa tracked across borders from another Sub-Saharan Africa country (UNODC, 2022). Weak enforceability of road safety and border management measures contributes to the continuation of this practice. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 92 References IHME (2020). Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation. Available at: https://www.healthdata.org/research-analysis/gbd. IOM (2008). Human Trafficking in Eastern Africa. Research Assessment and Baseline Information in Tanzania, Kenya, Uganda, and Burundi. Available at: https://publications.iom.int/system/files/pdf/ kenyahumantraffickingbaselineassessment.pdf. Staton, C., Vissoci, J., Gong, E., Toomey, N., Wafula, R., Abdelgadir, J., Zhou, Y., Liu, C., Pei, F., Zick, B. and Ratliff, C.D. (2016). Road traffic injury prevention initiatives: a systematic review and metasummary of effectiveness in low- and middle-income countries. PloS one, 11(1), p.e 0144971. UNAIDS (2016). United Nations Political Declaration on Ending AIDS sets world on the Fast-Track to end the epidemic by 2030. Available at: https://www.unaids.org/en/resources/presscentre/ pressreleaseandstatementarchive/2016/june/20160608_PS_HLM_PoliticalDeclaration. UNECE (2020). Road Safety for All. Available at: https://unece.org/transport/publications/road- safety-all-0. Last accessed [2023/06/13]. UNODC (2022). Global Report on Trafficking in Persons. Global Overview. Available at: https:// www.unodc.org/documents/data-and-analysis/glotip/2022/GLOTiP_2022_chapter_1_Global_ Overview_230123.pdf. WHO (2017). Save Lives Package: A road safety technical package. Available at: https://www.who. int/publications/i/item/save-lives-a-road-safety-technical-package. WHO (2018). Global Status Report on Road Safety. Available at: https://www.who.int/ publications/i/item/9789241565684. WHO (2021). The Global Health Observatory Databank. World Health Organization. Available at: https://www.who.int/data/gho/data/indicators/indicator-details/GHO/estimated-road-traffic- death-rate-(per-100-000-population). Government Offices of Sweden, WHO 2019. World Bank (2008) Lessons Learned from Mainstreaming HIV/AIDS in Transport Sector Projects in Sub-Saharan Africa. Washington D.C. World Bank (2009) Transport against HIV/AIDS: Synthesis of Experience and Best Practice Guidelines. Transport Paper 25, Washington D.C. World Bank (2016). Ratio of female to male labor force participation rate (percent) (modeled ILO estimate). Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SL.TLF.CACT.FM.ZS?locations=ZF. World Bank (2020). Global Road Safety Facility Country Profiles. World Bank (2021). A Review of Road Safety in Southern Africa. Washington D.C. World Bank (2022). Population, total. Available at: https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SP.POP. TOTL?locations=ZM. Worldometer (2018). GDP by Country, nominal, 2017. Available at: https://www.worldometers.info/ gdp/gdp-by-country/. Chapter 7 Sustainable Financing of the Regional Transport and Trade Network Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 94 7.1. Introduction The road network is one of the largest assets of the countries of the SADC region. Developed long after the original rail networks, the road networks have evolved into critical and strategic infrastructure assets for every country. They are key drivers and facilitators of trade, transport, and economic growth and development, stretching thousands of kilometers across borders and connecting all major cities and trading partners. However, the significant capital investments expended to achieve and increase such connectivity have also increased the recurrent budget needed to maintain the asset. Despite the progress under the earlier Road Maintenance Initiative (World Bank/Heggie, 1994), which supported both the commercialization of the road sector and the introduction of Road Funds with hypothecated revenue streams, the gap between maintenance needs and recurrent expenditures is growing in many countries. In this section, an overview of the needs and recurrent sources of road funding is provided. This is followed by an evaluation of the sustainability of recurrent road funding in each of the countries in southern Africa. The section concludes with a list of recommendations for improving the sustainability of recurrent finance of the road transport sector. 7.2. Expenditure Needs and Resources 7.2.1. Sources of Revenue Although many of the countries in SADC benefit from external funding for capital investment, recurrent road sector funding outside key corridors in South Africa and the link between SA and Maputo is primarily sourced from dedicated collection mechanisms used to gather user revenue. The potential sources of revenue for the road fund differ slightly by country, but generally, other than the domestic budget, they comprise the following: • Multilateral and bilateral support • EXIM Bank supported finance • Project finance and public private partnerships • Institional funds • Domestic sources, fuel levies and other road user charges Multilateral and Bilateral Support External funding Multilateral and bilateral funding has been a critical source of capital funding for projects in the SADC region for many years. All countries within the study region receive loan, credit, grant, or guarantee support from one or several MDBs and bilateral organizations. These sources are likely to remain a critical part of road sector expenditures for the foreseeable future. Funds from these sources are generally used for capital expenditures. The exception is when it is used as part of a longer-term performance-based maintenance contract, or as part of a concession. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 95 Export Credit Agencies Export Credit Agencies (ECA) are designed to help exporters through various financial instruments. EXIM (export/import) financing provides financial support, generally with credit and non-payment risk protection, extending credit facilities to foreign buyers, or by providing insurance products designed to provide credit protection to a lender. It also provides an avenue for public or private companies to provide the seller with government-backed financing to a foreign buyer. Government- to-Government loan agreements are also frequently used for infrastructure projects, and may involve the use of EXIM financing to de-risk the transaction. Selling Governments may extend preferential rates on goodwill, and in some cases, a third-party project sponsor or developer may lobby to facilitate a deal between the two Governments. EXIM financed projects may be very large in size, providing access to a credit facility not otherwise available. Figure 7.1. Ex-Im Bank Direct Loan Structure (CRS) Export of goods/ Loan from services Ex-Im Bank Payment to Fees, interest, loan Exporter exporter Foreign Buyer payment to Ex-Im Bank Ex-Im Bank Source: World Bank. EXIM finance may provide last-chance access to financing that may not otherwise be available. However, willing buyer/willing seller deals might result in non-favorable agreement terms. The potential downsides of EXIM include the cost, the lack of transparency (e.g., when commercial contracts are signed and not disclosed publicly), poor project planning, insufficient feasibility work, or poorly designed projects. Funds from these sources are generally used for capital projects; the exception is when it is used as part of a longer-term performance-based maintenance contract, or as part of a concession. Project finance & PPP The introduction of formal public-private partnership (PPP) units in most countries has introduced a culture that promotes the concept of private sector corporations as viable technical partners and funding sources for delivering roads projects. PPPs aim to balance the risk between public and private partners by placing the risks in the hands of the party best suited to mitigate them. They enable the delivery of projects, which minimize the reliance on funding from taxation and borrowing (neither of which are politically favorable). By utilizing a calculated and known public contribution, the government can partner with a private company to leverage greater technical and operational efficiencies. With fiscal health strained in many countries due to COVID-19 challenges, an opportunity exists for PPPs to play a larger role in the successful development and completion of projects. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 96 PPPs are frequently structured using project finance, and the value of the project is generally based on the value of future cash flows expected from it. Investors turn to non-recourse debt financing to isolate their risk from project cash flow variability. However, commercial lenders ultimately require guarantees or evidence that the project will generate the required debt service payments. If future cash flows cannot be accurately predicted, additional burden will be placed on the government to guarantee these flows. Thus, if the financing costs are too expensive, it may be that the government only requires technical support from a private partner instead of having the partner bring debt financing to the project as well. A study of empirical project finance data found that loan spreads are directly related to country risks, the use of covenants in the loan contract, and project leverage (Kleimeier and Megginson, 2001). However, the success of PPPs in the transport sector in the SADC region has been mixed. The macroeconomic and fiscal environment in the region has been challenging in recent years, and outside South Africa, leveraging project finance to deliver strategic projects is hindered by long distances and relatively light traffic levels. Table 7.1. provides a summary of the better-known PPPs in transport in the area. Funds from these sources are generally used for capital expenditures, the exception is when used as part of a longer-term performance-based maintenance contract, or as part of a concession. Table 7.1. List of Known/Major Transport PPPs in the Study Area Commencement Investment Country Project Structure of Operations ($US M) Botswana / Kazungula Bridge BOT 2021 260 Zambia South Africa / N4 / EN4 Toll Road BOT 2000 330 Mozambique Mozambique Port of Maputo Concession 2003 30 Bakwena Road (part of the 200 (debt), equity South Africa DBFOM 2004 Maputo corridor) portion unknown N3 Toll Concession (N3TC) South Africa (KwaZulul-Natal to Concession 1999 800 Gauteng) Zambia Kasomeno to Mwenda Road DBOT Expected ~2024 475 Zimbabwe New Limpopo Bridge (NLB) BOT 1999-2014 Zimbabwe Plumtree-Mutare Road DBOM 2015 206 Zimbabwe Newlands By-pass (NBP) Build-Transfer 2007 Harare-Beitbridge-Chirundu Zimbabwe BOT 2021 Highway Bulawayo-Beitbridge Zimbabwe DBOT 1998 65 Railway Beitbridge One-Stop Border Zimbabwe BOT 2024 240 Post Concession Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 97 Institutional investors Pension funds, sovereign wealth funds (SWFs), and insurers are other potential sources of capital that are accessible for road project financing or funding in a limited number of countries. These investors typically seek long-term opportunities that match long-term liabilities. These investors are able to support larger projects, in some cases, much more effectively than local banks, who may lack sufficient scale or size to take on projects of such size. Despite this interest, several key issues remain: • Most projects will still require backing by the Ministry of Finance / National Treasury • The credit worthiness of the country is critical to obtaining funding, but also to getting preferred rates • Where a government’s ability to service debt may be compromised, lenders will frequently look for grants and/or partners to help offset the cost of capital • Lenders do have requirements for long-term maintenance and oversight of the projects. However, these are often shorter term (<5 years) and are no longer relevant when the deteriation of the infrastructure must be addressed through appropriate maintenance practices • Pension funds are interested in transport PPPs but are risk averse and prefer to invest in mature projects with predictable cash flows 7.3. Domestic Sources, Road Funds and Road User Charges Following the Road Maintenance Initiative which sought to commercialize the management of the road sector (World Bank/Heggie, 1994), many countries established legal entities or Road Funds, which were mandated to collect revenue from a fuel levy and other user charges. The revenue would be distributed to an independent Road Authority that would maintain the road network to the required standard, and where possible, develop the network. Both institutions would have an independent board to try and minimize political interference in expenditure planning. With the exception of Botswana and South Africa, all SADC countries have a road fund with a revenue stream that is directly applied to road maintenance costs. However, in nearly all those countries, the revenue from fuel levies or surcharges on fuel imports are insufficient to meet the recurrent needs of the road network. SSATP (2021) highlighted a number of issues contributing to the poor performance of road funds in many countries: • Poor financial management • Absence of independent audits • Extensive use of funds for unauthorized expenditures • Diversion of funds • Weak oversight Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 98 A considerable amount of work has been done to develop frameworks for successful road funds to provide stability and avoid inconsistent and erratic funding. The key characteristics of successful road funds were identified as: • Sound legal basis – separate road fund administration, clear rules and regulations • Strong oversight – broad based private/public board • Agency which is a purchaser not a provider of road maintenance services • Revenues incremental to the budget and coming from charges related to road use and channeled directly to the Road Fund bank account • Sound financial management systems, lean efficient administrative structure • Regular technical and financial audits Table 7.1. provides an overview of the study countries and certain road sector and macro data. Foreign exchange rates were estimated for the given year, pre-COVID. The scale and size of the South African economy and road network is an order of magnitude larger than the other countries, but plays a critical role in the corridors as a source of demand, production of goods, and as the host of several ocean ports. Table 7.2. Country Summary Data Annual Roads Roads GDP GDP Per Road Fund Year of Population Country (Paved, (Unpaved, (US$ Capita Revenue Road Fund (million) km) km) billions) (US$) (US$US$ Data Milions) Botswana 2.4 10,388 22,175 15.9 6,405 96.2* 2019 Malawi 19.1 4,017 11,434 12.0 637 58.8 2019 Mozambique 31.3 6,314 31,035 14.0 449 117.9 2019 Namibia 2.5 7,893 40.983 10.7 4,179 153.5 2020 South Africa 59.3 158,124 591,876 302.0 5,656 1,129.8* - Tanzania 59.7 9,988 133,958 62.4 1,076 162.9 2019 Zambia 18.4 10,107 57,564 19.3 985 640.0 2019 Zimbabwe 14.9 17,420 67,788 16.8 1,215 205.0 2018 Sources: Botswana: World Bank Data Bank, Bank of Botswana Financial Statistics; Namibia: Namibia Roads Authority – Annual Report – 2018/19; Malawi: Road Funds Administration Annual Report, 2018/19; Mozambique: Republica de Mocambique, Fundo de Estradas (FE). Retrieved from World Bank online databank, October 2021.; Namibia – Road Fund Annual Reports; South Africa: SANRAL Integrated Report, 2019/20; Tanzania: Roads Fund Reports; Aurecon Road Fund Report; Zimbabwe: ZINARA Public Reports, ZIMRA Annual Reports. Note: Figures were derived by the consultant using estimated foreign exchange rates if not provided in the relevant reports. * – estimated/no road fund. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 99 A summary of revenue available for road expenditures is provided in Table 7.2. As Botswana and South Africa do not have road funds, the figures may not accurately represent total expenditures investments, as funds are frequently received directly from Treasury. In the case of Tanzania and South Africa, the length of their respective road networks (high total network km) lead to lower revenue per km figures. Table 7.3. Change in Estimated Road Fund Revenue by Country 2014-2020 Road Fund Revenue 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (US$ M) Botswana 86.49 88.28 82.93 90.48 117.34 96.15 N/A Malawi N/A 39.53 63.58 60.71 54.01 58.88 N/A Mozambique N/A N/A N/A N/A 93.38 117.85 122.22 Namibia 107.5 112.91 122.96 155.24 149.63 154.77 153.54 South Africa N/A N/A N/A 369.83 354.44 1,139.95 968.37 Tanzania N/A 160.04 160.29 165.15 151.66 162.61 173.15 Zambia 488.62 483.67 219.52 270.00 213.28 283.22 N/A Zimbabwe 152.00 183.25 178.50 194.20 204.50 63.00 105.00 Source: World Bank. Road fund revenues in the region are shown here as an aggregation of the various road user charges (RUC) in use (see Table 7.3. for a more detailed breakdown of RUCs by country). Figure 7.1. provides a breakdown of revenue firms’ expenditures from the road funds. The reporting is inconsistent, making some comparisons between specific charges difficult. For example, the breakdown of revenue from a PPP project may be ring-fenced from the road fund, but it was not clear if all toll revenue was included in the figures. Likewise for expenditures. Accounting practices may also vary – in South Africa, funds may be allocated to the road sector immediately but capitalized over several years as work is carried out. Examining the performance of the road fund in countries that have it, they still consistently bring in less revenue than road fund expenditures. Mozambique and Zambia face difficult debt situations in the roads sector as well as nationally, while Malawi, Tanzania, and Zimbabwe appear to be insufficiently funded. Based on the data reviewed, Botswana and South Africa seem to maintain stable funding for the road sector at a primary level, but supplement expenditures through earmarked transfers provided from the finance ministries. In addition, the story is very different at the provincial level. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 100 Figure 7.2. Road Fund Revenue vs Expenditures – 2019 US$ Millions 1,200.0 1,000.0 In Botswana, RUCs are supplemented with central government budget support to cover OPEX and CAPEX 800.0 600.0 400.0 200.0 0 na i ue a ia ca bia e law bw ibi an fri biq wa m m Ma ba nz hA Za ts m Na Ta m za Bo ut Zi Mo So Road Fund Revenue Road Expenditure Total Source: World Bank. 7.3.1. Road User Charges (RUCs) Traditional sources of funding for road maintenance have included the different types of road user charges (RUC) to raise revenue to cover the recurrent costs of maintaining the network. All countries in the region deploy all or many of the RUCs listed here (see Table 7.4.): • Fuel levies • Licence & registration fees • Road tolls • Weight charges (with or without a distance component) • Abnormal load charges • Cross-border, Transit fees • Weighbridge fines Other potential sources of road funds used internationally include congestion charges, satellite based heavy vehicle fees, and vignettes. A survey taken in 2008 indicated that, across a sample of 142 countries, fuel taxes accounted for 87 percent of total road user charges on average (Queiroz, 2008). Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 101 Governments may also provide funding directly from the Ministry of Finance or general government tax revenues to the road authority or province to maintain the road network at the different levels. Every country is different in its application of various taxes; however, the general goal is to apply the taxes proportionally to road usage, closely correlating fees with the wear and tear of the road network. This is the goal, but it is rarely followed by the countries in the region. The majority of the countries – explicitly or implicitly – by providing insufficient funding, are tacitly accepting a reduction in the level of service, condition, on some level, or part of the network. A summary of RUCs deployed by country is provided below. (For additional details on RUCs by country, see Annex C in Volume 2). Table 7.4. Application of RUC Funding Mechanisms by Country South Africa Mozambique Zimbabwe Botswana Road User Charge Tanzania eSwatini Namibia Lesotho Zambia Malawi Angola (RUC) DRC Cross-border Charges / x x x x x x x x x x Foreign Vehicle Permit Fees Road Transport Permit Fees x Carbon Taxes Annual Vehicle License Fees x x x x x x x x x x x Fuel Levies x x x x x x x x x x Tolls x x x x x Mass distance charges x Source: World Bank. Fuel Levies Fuel levies are a widely used and accepted tax mechanism and are considered a quick and cheap tax to implement. There is little overhead compared to other methods and simplifies the collection by either collecting taxes at the fuel pump, or on the importation of some or all hydrocarbon products when imported into the country. Taxes are remitted by the fuel companies, or in some cases, are directly collected by the tax authorities on importation. Fuel levies can be raised or lowered as a matter of adjusting policies and new prices can be implemented in a short time. Additionally, compliance is high as there are few methods by which users can circumvent the tax. Unfortunately, prices are easily adjustable in high price environments, which leaves fuel levies open to political manipulation. Across the study region, fuel levies are not indexed to inflation, and in many cases, are set by the government. The diesel and petrol tariffs tend to be very close in absolute terms. In some cases, refunds are provided in country for certain users, such as refunds on fuel levies for agricultural use. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 102 The fuel levy tariffs will need to be increased and/or replaced over time as average fuel consumption per kilometer erodes with efficiency improvements, and technology shifts (EVs). Other RUCs will be required to replace the missing revenue. A shift to distance-based charges, as currently used in Namibia, may be an effective, consistent, and reliable source of revenue linked closely to road usage. Figure 7.3. Fuel Levies by Country (2019) Fu l L v (USD/lit r) b Countr nd Fu l T p 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.12 USD / liter 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00 na i ue a ca ia bia e law bw ibi an fri biq wa m m Ma ba nz hA Za ts m Na Ta m za Bo ut Zi Mo So Diesel Petrol Source: Consultant Analysis of Annual Reports & Gazettes. According to a World Bank report, the fuel levy rate required for a sufficiently capitalized road fund in the SSA region was estimated at US$0.174/liter (World Bank, 2019). Adjusted for inflation, this would now be approximately US$0.20/liter. The current fuel levies are presented below for each study country. A summary of the fuel levy rate charged by country is provided in Figure 7.2., suggesting a reconsideration of the rate of the fuel levy in some countries is overdue. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 103 Figure 7.4. Petrol price and % taxes, levy on petrol (2019) Petrol 1.4 25% Petrol levy as % of pump price 1.2 20% Petrol price (USD/litre 1 0.8 15% 0.6 10% 0.4 5% 0.2 0 0% e i i eny a nd a an ia nd a bw an a atin oth o law ibi a bia a z a a w s a m m K Rw Ta n Ug m b ts Es w Le M Na Za Zi Bo Petrol price Petrol levy Source: World Bank. A comparison of regional fuel levels for petrol and diesel against the fuel levy indicates a large variation in the impact of the fuel levy on the pump price of the fuel. Some minor variation between diesel and petrol exists, but the levies represent 10 percent +/- 5 percent of the cost fuel. Figure 7.5. Diesel price and % taxes, levy on Diesel Diesel 1.4 25% Diesel levy as % of pump price 1.2 20% Diesel price (USD/litre) 1 0.8 15% 0.6 10% 0.4 5% 0.2 0 0% i i ny a nd a an ia nd a bwe ana atin o o th alaw fri ca ibi a bia Ke a nz ga ba sw w s A m am w Le M a R Ta U m Bo t Es ut h N Z Zi o S Diesel price Diesel levy Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 104 7.4. Conclusions and Recommendations The road network in the SADC region is one of the largest assets of the countries of the region. Developed long after the original rail networks appeared in the region, the road networks have evolved into critical and strategic infrastructure assets for every country. The road networks are key drivers and facilitators of trade, transport, and economic growth and development, stretching thousands of kilometers across borders and connecting all major cities and trading partners. However, the significant increase in the scale of the regional road network to achieve such connectivity has placed significant pressure on the recurrent budget to maintain the asset. Despite the significant progress under the earlier Road Maintenance Initiative, which supported the commercialization of the road sector and the introduction of Road Funds with hypothecated revenue streams, the gap between maintenance needs and expenditures is growing in many countries. Within SADC, all countries apart from Botswana and South Africa have an established road fund collecting ring-fenced revenue. In most cases, revenue falls well short of the recurrent expenditure needed to maintain the current network. But maintenance weaknesses at all levels of the road network occur not just from underfunding, but also from capacity constraints in the institutions themselves, weaknesses in the institutional framework, and political interference. SSATP (2019) noted that many road funds were hindered by poor financial management, absence of independent auditing, use of funds for unauthorized expenditures or other diversion of funds, and weak oversight. In addition, road user charges, such as transit fees, fuel levies or load charges, vary significantly between countries, complicating international transport. Across the study region, fuel levies are not indexed to inflation, and in many cases, are set by the government. A summary of the fuel levy rate charged by country is provided in Figure 7.2. It suggests that a reconsideration of the fuel levy rate in some countries is long overdue. Finally, fuel levy tariffs will need to be increased and/or replaced over time as average fuel consumption per kilometer erodes with efficiency improvements, and technology shifts (EVs). Other RUCs will be required to replace the missing revenue. A shift to distance-based charges, as currently used in Namibia, may be an effective, consistent, and reliable source of revenue linked closely to road usage. A study of this type which looks at the recurrent financing of the road network and identifies the appropriate scale and structure of a new set of road user taxes would seem a priority for the countries of the region. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 105 References (n.d.). Retrieved from https://www.bankofbotswana.bw/content/pula-fund. (n.d.). Deloitte South Africa. SADC, Consultant updates. (2012). SADC Regional Masterplan. SADC. adapted from Miller et al . (2001). Akash Deep. Harvard Kennedy School. ADBI. (n.d.). Infrastructure Finance and Financial Sector Development. AfDB. (2018). AfDB. 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(n.d.). Deloitte South Africa. Deloitte South Africa. Fitch Ratings. (2020). Fitch Ratings. Fitch Ratings. GIZ. (2017). Mobilization of Long-term Savings for Infrastructure Financing in Africa. GIZ. Harvey, M. (2015). Transport and Regional Economics. Australia: Bureau of Infrastructure. Highway Junction. (2021). Retrieved from https://www.highwayjunction.co.za/history. ICRA (2023). National Highways Authority of India: Rating reaffirmed. ICRA. Available at: https://www.icra.in/Rationale/ShowRationaleReport/?Id=119190 IFC. (2016). Encompass. IFC. IMF. (2021). IMF. IMF. IMF. (n.d.). Study Countries Reports. IMF. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 106 (2017). Leveraging African Pension Funds for Financing Infrastructure Development. McKenzie, B. (2021). New Dynamics Africa Report. IJ Global. Ministry of Transport & Infrastructural Development. (2022). Retrieved from http://www.transcom. gov.zw/. N3TC. (2021). N3TC. (2016). NATMAP 2050. Gauteng: National Department of Transport. NSW. (2023). Special Infrastructure Contributions. New South Wales Government. Available at: https://www.planning.nsw.gov.au/plans-for-your-area/infrastructure-funding/special- infrastructure-contributions. OECD. (n.d.). OECD Databank: Country Annual Reports. OECD. OECD. (n.d.). OECD Databank: Respectve Country Annual Reports. OECD. Peterson Foundation. (2023). The Highway Trust Fund Explained. Peter G. Peterson Foundation. Available at: https://www.pgpf.org/budget-basics/budget-explainer-highway-trust-fund. PIDA. (2022). PIDA PAP2 Financing Strategy Report. PPIAF. (n.d.). Toolkit for Roads & Highways. PPIAF. Publication:, A. (n.d.). Structured Finance for Infrastructure Bonds in African Markets. Queiroz, U. B. (2008). Mechanisms for Financing Roads: A Review of International Practice. IDB. SANRAL. (2019). SANRAL Traffic Yearbook. SANRAL. SSATP. (n.d.). SSATP. Retrieved November 2021, from https://www.ssatp.org/en/page/road-funds, SSATP/SADC. (n.d.). Guideline for Low Volume Sealed Roads. Transnet Freight Rail. (2017). TFR Long Term Planning Framework. Transnet Freight Rail. (9th October 2015). North South Corridor (Track evaluation). Trucking Wellness. (2021). Retrieved from Trucking Wellness: http://www.truckingwellness.co.za/. Tyson, J. (2021). Green Bonds in Sub-Saharan Africa. Joint FSD Africa and ODI briefing paper. London: Overseas Development Institute. WEF. (2017). Recycling our Infrastructure for Future Generations. World Economic Forum. Available at: https://www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Recycling_our_Infrastructure_for_Future_Generations_ report_2017.pdf. World Bank. (2019). Scaling Up Private Sector Participation in Road Asset Management. World Bank. World Bank. (2020). World Bank. Retrieved December 2021, from https://www.worldbank.org/en/ news/press-release/2020/06/30/world-bank-provides-425-million-to-support-the-provision-of- infrastructure-financing-in-eastern-and-southern-africa. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 107 World Bank Group/PPIAF/SSATP, W. B. (2019). Scaling Up Private Sector Participation in Road Asset Management in Sub-Saharan Africa. World Bank Group. World Bank. (November 2021). World Bank Data Bank. World Bank. World Bank/Ian Heggie. (n.d.). Commercializing Africa’s Roads: Transforming the Role of the Public Sector. World Bank/Ian Heggie. Chapter 8 Critical Short- and Medium- Term Improvement Needs Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 109 8.1. Introduction The purpose of this chapter is to provide information on the development of the long list of enabling reforms and physical infrastructure requirements, the testing of these interventions in the RAFM, and the approach in the stylized economic evaluation, where feasible. The resulting interventions are then presented in a prioritized short- and medium-term investment program, stratified by corridor. The broad approach is illustrated in Figure 8.1. Figure 8.1. Approach followed in the development of the short- and medium-term investment program Scr n Compil Sc n rio D fin proj cts Economic Priorits t stin of Scor proj ct to t to v lu tion of v lu tion proj cts in proj cts proj cts 'lon list’ r fin d proj cts crit ri FTDM 'lon list’ Source: Zutari, Ltd. (2023). 8.2. Project selection and screening The first step involved the compilation of all possible interventions, split into three categories. The first and second category included interventions identified by agencies, ministries, DFAs, and the SADC region. Theses interventions could also have been identified during discussions with stakeholders, or from secondary sources such as reports, business plans, master plans, or other relevant documentation. These projects were further reviewed and divided into three categories: Category 1 were projects that were at the initial planning stage (Stage S1 to S3A), Category 2 projects were those that were further advanced; and Category 3 projects were those that required financing (S3B onwards). Both enabling reforms and infrastructure were considered. Infrastructure included physical investments into ports, border posts, bridges, railways, roads, or road safety. These interventions could be capacity improvements, new constructions, upgrades, reconstruction, or rehabilitation projects. Enabling reforms included legal, institutional, and system-wide interventions related to digitalization. These were usually related to trade facilitation, border and corridor management, or procedural improvements. The lead agencies in charge of delivery and maintenance of the projects differ from country to country, but would either be a ministry, a donor, a Regional Economic Community, or a sector authority. Each identified intervention was assigned a specific stage depending on the level of project preparedness. Table 8.1. describes each stage in more detail (columns ‘Source of identification’, and ‘Type of project evaluation conducted’). The project stage number is consistent with the PIDA PAP framework. Projects in the first three stages, S1 to S3A, were evaluated only if capacity constraints were identified on the network within the RAFM transport model. Otherwise, these projects were considered aspirational only and not advanced enough to be evaluated. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 110 Standalone model evaluation means that, on a given future transport network, the marginal effect of one additional project was evaluated. The combined effect of projects between stages 3B and 4C (Category 2 projects) was evaluated in the model. Since all these projects already have financing, it is assumed that these projects will go ahead, be built, and will become operational. Hence, only the total effect of these projects on the transport network was relevant. Table 8.1. Decision matrix for project evaluation based on project preparedness Project Stage duration Source of Type of project Description stage (months) identification evaluation conducted Model, due to Standalone model evaluation Identification/ 9 S1 capacity constraints + economic evaluation. Concept Other sources None Model, due to Standalone model evaluation 7 S2 Pre-Feasibility capacity constraints + economic evaluation. Other sources None Feasibility, Model, due to Standalone model evaluation 6-18 S3A detailed design, capacity constraints + economic evaluation. structuring Other sources None Financing Combined effect model S3B 6-11 Other sources obtained evaluation Combined effect model S4A Tendering 4 Other sources evaluation Combined effect model S4B Construction 36 Other sources evaluation None. Already included in S4C Operation Other sources model. Source: World Bank. Projects identified during the model assignment were derived using certain assumptions. For capacity upgrades, the RAFM model was run with 2019-level infrastructure and speeds, including Category 2 projects which are already committed, have funding and will be open in the future, but with 2050 demand. The difference between demand for transport in 2050 and current (2019) capacities was identified, and where future demand exceeded current capacity, upgrades were proposed as projects. For road projects, traffic forecasts were used in a Highway Capacity Manual analysis to determine the Level of Service on a road. Road sections at level E or worse were considered for capacity upgrades. To identify rehabilitation projects, HDM-4 was used to arrive at necessary projects over the 30- year analysis period to 2050. Country and corridor-specific inputs pertaining to traffic, condition, construction, and maintenance history were used. The projects were broken down into routine maintenance, periodic maintenance, and rehabilitation, where applicable, and in order to optimize road funding requirements. Annex F (in Volume 2) summarizes the output from HDM-4, and the impact on vehicle operating costs resulting from the proposed maintenance projects. For physical Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 111 upgrades at key border posts, identified as necessary within the model, it was assumed that border processing time would fall by 90 percent after the investment. Capacity upgrades and rehabilitation projects were considered separately. A total of 60 road projections, five road safety projects, 16 railway projects, two seaports, eight intermodal hubs, and five border post projects were identified as part of the literature scoping review (Category 1 and 2). A further 15 road capacity upgrades, 121 road rehabilitation projects, one road overload control project, three rail projects, six seaports, 15 border post investments, and 19 enabling reforms were identified as a result of the transport model assignment modelling (Category 3). Among the 299 projects identified, 24 were evaluated using a standalone model evaluation and economic evaluation, and 29 were advanced enough to added to the transport network for 2050 as they had been committed (Category 2). The transport model results were used as an input into the economic evaluation and are not presented here. 8.3. Economic evaluation of projects The analysis involved a stylized economic assessment of the proposed projects using cost-benefit analysis (CBA). Conceptually, a CBA calculates the overall economic impact as the sum of user benefits, the change in operating system costs and revenues, the change in the economic cost of externalities, and the investment costs. The analysis followed the CBA methodology published by the World Bank (2005) and the updated technical guidance note (2016). In this strategic CBA, where many projects were at concept stage, we calculated the economic impact as the sum of all user benefits, net of investment costs, discounted at the social discount rate. User benefits in this case were the freight time costs, vehicle operating costs, and railway transport costs. The time and distance costs were derived from the RAFM, while the economic value of time and operational costs were derived from corridor models in South Africa, as well as data from corridor surveys of the Democratic Republic of Congo and Zambia. Changes in externalities were not valued in economic terms. This applies to changes in safety and accident costs, changes in GHG emissions, air pollution, and noise. As a result, projects with a negative NPV were not necessarily excluded, but are recommended to undergo cost minimization, in order to improve their NPV. Several caveats apply when interpreting the results of the strategic CBA. The analysis did not consider the source of financing, or the revenue sources from this project such as a toll on a road or railway. In practice, a toll will influence both the level of traffic and revenue streams, and therefore the financial viability of a project. Tolls and pricing policies should therefore be carefully considered in feasibility studies for the projects identified in this analysis. In addition, the impact that transformative projects would have on inducing new traffic, or new business opportunities, was not captured. This may underestimate the value of some projects. The transport model excludes intra-regional and short-distance travel, so it may underestimate the need for capacity expansion on certain roads. To carry out the CBA, assumptions had to be made regarding the duration and the cost of preparing each project. The approach was based on the PIDA PAP framework. At concept stage, costs are determined with a 50percent error margin, which is gradually reduced to 15 percent by stage 3A, when the feasibility study and construction design has been completed. The estimates of the duration of each stage, shown in Table 8.1., were based on consultations with stakeholders. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 112 Consultancy fees between 5 and 10 percent were applied depending on the infrastructure type of the project. Environmental and social approval, as well as land availability for construction, were not considered in the cost estimates. A strategic CBA was carried out for projects that are necessary to alleviate bottlenecks arising within the transport system by 2050, and for projects with some form of financing, which are part of the infrastructure investment plans of the relevant authorities. Economic appraisals of regulatory and enabling reforms were not carried out. All the enabling reforms identified in the scoping phase of this report were already underway, and it was assumed that the projects have a net benefit to society. The same applies to road and railway projects that have finished construction and are operational. Finally, all projects identified as either a) having financial commitments or being tendered, b) being part of the infrastructure investment plan of an authority, or c) necessary for transportation flows within the RAFM, were ranked on the investment priority list. Investments were prioritized according to their net present value (NPV), and the year in which capacity constraints will be reached. A project was given a higher rank on the investment priority list if, overall, it reduces greenhouse gas emissions. Annex G at the end of this chapter provides a list of the key input parameters to calculate the costs and benefits. 8.4. Results of economic evaluation and project prioritization This section presents the results of the economic evaluation. Projects were grouped by corridor and presented in tables stratified by project type. All projects for which some information was available, whether generated from the literature review exercise, or identified as bottlenecks in the regional transport model, are listed in this section. Projects that were at concept/identification stage or pre-feasibility stage, and that did not alleviate bottlenecks according to the transport modelling exercise, were not included in the economic assessment. They are listed in the tables nonetheless, but with missing information. In general, enabling reforms should be prioritized in every country, as they have greater benefit-to-cost ratio than any infrastructure project. Border posts, inadequate infrastructure and ICT systems all contribute significantly to delays in freight transport, and recommendations listed in this report were largely based on reports from the SADC. Ports have high rates of return on investment. Railway project investment needs are anticipated to be quite large. This is partly due to the deteriorating status of the lines and rolling stock, which increase recapitalization costs. The increased competitiveness of road transport also means that previously sufficient speeds and capacities may not be sufficient to maintain clients in the future. Four railway projects were tested in the transport model and evaluated fully. Only one has a positive NPV, the Mmamabula–Lephalale rail link that was inspired by the constraints on the existing transport network. Most of the possible railway construction, or upgrades, were either in concept stage or in the stage of developing the feasibility study. This meant that their exact routing and investment cost estimates were not available, and an economic evaluation could not be conducted. Several arterial roads on the network will reach capacity by 2050. To manage the capacity constraints, 15 lane addition projects were identified, tested, and evaluated. They were prioritized by cost-benefit ratio, starting from highest benefits relative to costs. Most of these projects will lead Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 113 to time savings, and sometimes distance savings due to the rerouting of trucks. Additionally, 121 projects were identified for rehabilitations of road network sections. They involve small investments, typically costing less than US$1mnUS$ per km of road. The assessment was carried out in HDM-4. They were split into short-, medium-, and long-term improvement programs. The cost figures are notional, and reflect the type of the proposed work, light rehabilitation and/or reseal of the specified road section. Several road sections will require upgrades more than once in the next 30 years to ensure fair condition. Road sections that are considered a priority to ensure or improve the resilience of the road network are marked with a ‘Yes’ in the relevant column. These road sections are exposed to a climate hazard, identified as part of the analysis in the Climate Chapter, and should undergo a detailed assessment of their exposure to climate hazards. any infrastructure upgrade should consider climate change impacts. However, the estimated costs for these road upgrades do not reflect a higher climate-resistant standard. It should be noted that much of the network is exposed to flooding, even 1-in-5-year events, and so few sections fully escape the need to be strengthened to face the challenges of climate change. 8.4.1. Enabling reforms Enabling reforms include regional trade facilitation initiatives, as well as the ratification and implementation status of international trade and transport agreements. As mentioned elsewhere in this report, particularly the non-standardization of legislation leads to various delays and problems for international truck traffic. Many of these interventions have been ongoing for many years and should continue to be implemented. Table 8.2. lists the enabling reforms identified that should be prioritized along all corridors. Additional reforms, if corridor-specific, are listed in Corridor subsections. Table 8.2. Enabling reforms Covered No Project Name Countries Corridors US$ Mn by TTTFP Program Assist in the linkage of the Corridor Trip Monitoring System SADC member 1. All 50 Yes (CTMS) with the Customs states systems in SADC Assist countries with adapting their National Transport SADC-wide, 2. Information Systems to comply except South All 50 Yes with the TTTFP URS and to Africa interface with TRIPS Assist countries to acquire/ SADC-wide, develop ICT systems still needed 3. except South All 50 Yes to implement TTTFP Model Laws Africa and Standards Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 114 Covered No Project Name Countries Corridors US$ Mn by TTTFP Program Develop uniform input requirements to risk SADC-wide, management modules of commencing 4. ASYCUDA World and other All 50 Yes with Zambia country specific customs and Zimbabwe systems to harmonise risk categories SADC-wide, Develop Single window commencing 5. systems (SWS) and assist with All 50 Yes with Zambia implementation and Zimbabwe Adoption and implementation of SADC member 6. CBM and framework for OSBPs All 1.50 No states in SADC Simplification, harmonization, SADC member 7. and automation of customs All 1.50 Yes states procedures SADC Policy and strategy on SADC member 8. All 20 Yes SWS states Assist SADC in providing a regional strategy regarding SADC member 9. Corridor Management All 1.50 Yes states Institutions as well as a model founding instrument Assistance with the adaptation of Driving Licence Codes, printing of cards and adaptation SADC member 10. All TBD Yes of legislation to comply with ISO states standard driving licence codes and cards Assist countries in the SADC member 11. domestication of the TTTFP All 1.5 Yes states Model Laws and Regulations Research and propose a dispute resolution process which has SADC member 12. All 1.5 No binding powers for SADC in states relation to trade facilitation Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 115 Covered No Project Name Countries Corridors US$ Mn by TTTFP Program Research on the reconstitution of the SADC Tribunal into a functional unit with access to it by countries as well as SADC member 13. All 1.5 No individuals, alternatively to states establish an alternative dispute resolution process of which the outcomes are binding Baseline survey of Road Safety Management Legislation in SADC and proposal of a model SADC member 14. All 1.5 No legislative framework to comply states with the UN Decade of Action and the AU Road Safety Charter Develop a regional authorised economic operator framework aligning requirements for accreditation and maintaining the SAFE Framework of SADC member 15. Standards under the WTO. All 1.5 Yes states Assist in its implementation leading to plurilateral/regional Mutual Recognition Agreements of Authorised Economic Operators Commission a baseline survey of the implementation of CBM and WTO TFA measures, ICT SADC member 16. All 1.5 No integration and traffic flow states management using Smart border concepts Implement the Simplified Trade SADC member 17. of the EAC and COMESA in SADC All 1.5 No states for informal traders Education, training and awareness campaigns of Border SADC member 18. All 1.5 Yes and Trade officials, as well as states private sector role players Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 116 8.4.2. The North-South Corridor (NSC) The tables below provide information on projects relevant to the North-South Corridor, which connects many of the Southern African countries, as itextends from Dar es Salaam to Durban. Table 8.3. lists the border posts and enabling reforms that are priorities on the corridor. The Groblersburg/ Martin’s Drift upgrade was the 2nd highest priority border post upgrade in the region, Kazungula OSBP the 5th, Beitbridge/Messina OSBP 6th, Kasumbalesa 8th, Beitbridge 9th, Martin’s Drift 10th, and Chirundu 11th. Table 8.4. lists railway projects on the corridor. The Mmamabula-Lephalale new railways construction between Botswana and South Africa is the most promising railway project on the corridor and in the wider region. Table 8.5. lists the proposed road projects on the corridor. These rank as the 1st, 3rd, 8th, 9th, and 10th most promising lane addition projects in Southern Africa. Table 8.3. Border posts and enabling reforms on the North-South Corridor No Project name Countries US$US$ Mn. 1 Kasumbalesa trade facilitation measures Zambia/DRC 0.3 2 Chirundu OSBP restructuring Zambia/Zimbabwe 5 Groblersbrug/Martin’s Drift upgrade to OSBP and Botswana/South 3 50 new bridge Africa 4 Kazungula OSBP Zambia/Botswana 20 South Africa/ 5 Beitbridge/ Messina OSBP/Smart border post 30 Zimbabwe 6 Kasumbalesa OSBP/smart border post Zambia 30 Beitbridge border post upgrade – freight and light 7 Zimbabwe 75 vehicles. Terminal, roads, ICT upgrade Truck parks, Inspection bays, storage facilities and packing/unpacking equipment, New/ South Africa/ 8 16 replacement scanning equipment, Staff housing Botswana at Martin’s Drift Traffic flow and exit lanes, Truck parks, Single Window System, Inspection bays, storage facilities and packing/unpacking equipment, 9 Zimbabwe/Zambia 33 Weighbridges outside border posts, New/ replacement scanning equipment, Staff housing, Cross-border markets at Chirundu OSBP Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 117 Table 8.4. Railway projects on the North-South Corridor NPV, US$US$ traffic, MTPA traffic, MTPA Project stage Project name optimization US$US$ Mn. Length, km necessary Countries Annual Annual 2050 2019 Cost Mn. S1 Mmamabula – Botswana/ 180 34 - 2.54 95 Lephalale (new South construction) Africa S1 Groenbult- South 353.1 -3378 13.17 14.4 Yes Durban capacity Africa improvement S3A New railway Mbeya Malawi 968 234 Insufficient to Chilumba (new information construction) available S3A Motsetse – Botswana 728 346 Insufficient Kazungula (new information construction) available Source: World Bank. Table 8.5. Road expansion projects on North-South Corridor NPV, US$US$ Length, Project name Countries Corridor US$US$ Mn. Mn. km Lane addition N3 – South Africa North-South 104.1 317 359 Villiers – Tugela Lane addition N11 – Groblersdal – South Africa North-South 65.8 151 227 Mokopane Lane addition A1 – Francistown – Botswana North-South 79.8 26 275 Serowe Lane addition N3 – Buccleuch – South Africa North-South 41.2 29 142 Heidelberg Lane addition N1 – Pretoria – South Africa North-South 30.5 22 105 Buccleuch Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 118 Table 8.5. lists the short-term road rehabilitation projects necessary on the corridor, while Table 8.6. and Table 8.7. list the medium-term and long-term rehabilitation projects, respectively. Table 8.6. Short-term Road improvement projects on North-South Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ 1 Reseal of section Botswana 0.16 8 20,184 Yes Nata – Francistown Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 2 South Africa 1.28 112 11,448 Yes Pretoria/Tshwane – Johannesburg Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 3 Gaborone – Botswana 1.84 17 108,350 Yes Ramotswa/Pioneer Gate BP Rehabilitation/ 4 Reseal of section Zambia 2.13 10 212,783 Yes Chirundu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 5 Groblersburg/ South Africa 6.48 33 196,493 Yes Martin’s Drift BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 6 Botswana 6.63 177 37,484 No Francistown – Palapye Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 7 South Africa 8.18 488 16,766 No Beit Bridge BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ 8 Reseal of section Zimbabwe 8.42 91 92,474 Yes Harare – Masvingo Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 9 Botswana 11.58 17 680,960 Yes Palapye – Gaborone Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 119 Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 10 Zambia 12.99 13 999,217 Yes Livingstone | Chirundu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of 11 Zambia 13.99 293 47,733 No section Ndola – Kasumbalesa BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 12 Zambia 17.32 192 90,220 No Kapiri Mposhi – Ndola Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 13 South Africa 41.46 386 107,413 Yes Mokopane – Pretoria/Tshwane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 14 Zambia 92.18 429 214,870 No Lusaka – Kapiri Mposhi Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 15 Zimbabwe 439.43 230 1,910,556 Yes Harare – Chirundu BP Rehabilitation/ 16 Reseal of section Zambia 717.16 334 2,147,180 No Mongu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 17 Zambia 879.77 460 1,912,533 Yes Livingstone – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 18 South Africa 1598.56 1127 1,418,424 No Johannesburg – Port of Durban Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 120 Table 8.7. Medium-term Road improvement projects on North-South Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ 1 Reseal of section Zambia 0.16 5 32,783 Yes Chirundu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 2 South Africa 0.59 466 1,265 No Johannesburg – Port of Durban Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 3 Gaborone – Botswana 1.84 17 108,350 Yes Ramotswa/Pioneer Gate BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 4 South Africa 4.64 214 21,667 No Beit Bridge BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 5 Groblersburg/ South Africa 6.48 33 196,493 Yes Martin’s Drift BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ 6 Reseal of section Zimbabwe 11.57 91 127,099 Yes Harare – Masvingo Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 7 Zambia 15.58 84 185,518 No Kapiri Mposhi – Ndola Rehabilitation/ Reseal of 8 Botswana 16.97 8 2,120,687 Yes section Nata – Francistown Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 9 Zambia 17.32 9 1,924,092 No Lusaka – Kapiri Mposhi Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 121 Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 10 Botswana 19.54 17 1,149,213 Yes Palapye – Gaborone Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 11 Zimbabwe 24.65 115 214,333 Yes Harare – Chirundu BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 12 Botswana 69.63 88 791,277 No Francistown – Palapye Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 13 South Africa 87.19 81 1,076,467 Yes Mokopane – Pretoria/Tshwane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 14 Zambia 736.97 375 1,965,258 Yes Livingstone – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of 15 Zambia 192.79 146 1,320,506 No section Ndola – Kasumbalesa BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 16 Zambia 243.65 145 1,680,312 Yes Livingstone – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 17 South Africa 486.27 285 1,706,228 No Beit Bridge BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 18 South Africa 799.28 564 1,417,166 No Johannesburg – Port of Durban Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 122 Table 8.8. Long-term Road improvement projects on North-South Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 1 South Africa 6.04 56 108,000 Yes Pretoria/Tshwane – Johannesburg Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 2 Zambia 0.65 6 108,250 Yes Livingstone | Chirundu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 3 South Africa 12.11 112 108,148 Yes Mokopane – Pretoria/Tshwane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 4 Botswana 17.42 92 189,347 Yes Palapye – Gaborone Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 5 Zambia 28.76 15 1,917,545 No Kapiri Mposhi – Ndola Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 6 South Africa 29.88 98 304,914 No Johannesburg – Port of Durban Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 7 Botswana 94.95 88 1,079,015 No Francistown – Palapye Rehabilitation/ 8 Reseal of section Zimbabwe 134.56 91 1,478,665 Yes Harare – Masvingo Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 9 Zambia 182.29 85 2,144,584 Yes Livingstone – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of 10 Zambia 192.79 146 1,320,506 No section Ndola – Kasumbalesa BP Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 123 Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 11 Zambia 287.88 134 2,148,352 No Lusaka – Kapiri Mposhi Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 12 South Africa 318.13 190 1,674,359 No Beit Bridge BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ 13 Reseal of section Zambia 358.58 168 2,134,400 No Mongu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ 14 Reseal of section Zambia 0.16 5 32,783 Yes Chirundu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 15 South Africa 0.27 193 1,418 Yes Mokopane – Pretoria/Tshwane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 16 South Africa 0.64 56 11,448 Yes Pretoria/Tshwane – Johannesburg Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 17 Zambia 0.65 6 108,250 Yes Livingstone | Chirundu – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 18 Zambia 1.63 84 19,445 No Kapiri Mposhi – Ndola Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 19 Gaborone – Botswana 1.84 17 108,350 Yes Ramotswa/Pioneer Gate BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 20 Zambia 4.69 215 21,812 No Lusaka – Kapiri Mposhi Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 124 Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 21 Groblersburg/ South Africa 6.48 33 196,493 Yes Martin’s Drift BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 22 Botswana 16.34 15 1,089,141 Yes Palapye – Gaborone Rehabilitation/ 23 Reseal of section Botswana 16.97 8 2,120,687 Yes Nata – Francistown Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 24 Zimbabwe 24.65 115 214,333 Yes Harare – Chirundu BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of 25 Zambia 192.79 146 1,320,506 No section Ndola – Kasumbalesa BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 26 Zambia 243.65 145 1,680,312 Yes Livingstone – Lusaka Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 27 South Africa 486.27 285 1,706,228 No Beit Bridge BP – Mokopane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 28 South Africa 799.28 564 1,417,166 No Johannesburg – Port of Durban Source: World Bank. The map in Figure 8.2. highlights, for illustration purposes, the key projects on the North-South corridor. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 125 Figure 8.2. Projects on the North-South Corridor Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 126 8.5. The Trans-Kalahari Corridor (TKC) The Trans-Kalahari Corridor extends from Walvis Bay to the east, providing a connection from the Gauteng region of South Africa to the West Coast. Table 8.9. provides information on the Walvis Bay Port container terminal expansion, which has the third highest net present value (NPV) of the identified port projects in the region. Table 8.9. Port projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor Annual Annual Throughput heavy heavy Project NPV, US$ Countries Corridor US$ Mn in 2019, vehicle vehicle name Mn. MTPA traffic, traffic, 2019 2050 Walvis Bay Port New Trans- Container Namibia 200 1 581 5.21 194 545 494 210 Kalahari Terminal Expansion Source: World Bank. The Trans-Kalahari Corridor has also been targeted for the construction of a new railway line connecting South Africa and Botswana. At the time of writing this report, insufficient information was available on the cost and dimensions of the proposed railway to be able to evaluate it fully. Table 8.10. lists these. Table 8.10. Railway projects identified on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor Project stage Project name Countries Corridor US$US$ Mn. Distance, km Gobabis- Botswana Namibia/ Trans- S1 8450 845 (new Botswana Kalahari construction) Trans- Trans- S1 Kalahari Botswana 7481 1395 Kalahari Railway link Source: World Bank. While no road expansion projects with a positive NPV were identified on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor, several road rehabilitation projects were. These are all in Namibia and South Africa, and are listed in Table 8.11. (short-term priorities), Table 8.12. (medium-term priorities), and Table 8.13. (long-term priorities). The projects are visualized in Figure 8.3. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 127 Table 8.11. Short-term Road improvement projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor Priority to Priority Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of 1 section Namibia 0.17 156 1,071 No Okahandja – Windhoek Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 2 Namibia 55.47 290 191,259 No Swakopmund – Okahandja | Otavi Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 3 South Africa 67.42 392 171,979 No Ramotswa/ Pioneer Gate BP – Pretoria Source: World Bank. Table 8.12. Medium-term Road improvement projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor Priority to Priority Project Name Countries US$US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 1 South Africa 3.58 184 19,476 No Ramotswa/ Pioneer Gate BP – Pretoria Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 2 Namibia 31.12 145 214,618 No Swakopmund – Okahandja | Otavi Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 128 Table 8.13. Long-term Road improvement projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor Priority to Priority Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 1 Namibia 0.84 78 10,712 No Okahandja – Windhoek Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 2 Ramotswa/ South Africa 137.22 78 1,759,262 No Pioneer Gate BP – Pretoria Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 3 Namibia 0.84 78 10,712 No Okahandja – Windhoek Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 4 Namibia 31.12 145 214,618 No Swakopmund – Okahandja | Otavi Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 129 Figure 8.3. Projects on the Trans-Kalahari Corridor Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 130 8.6. The Walvis Bay Corridors The Trans Caprivi Corridor connects DRC, Zambia, and Walvis Bay, while the Trans Kunene Corridor runs South, from Cape Town and Namibia to Angola. The Walvis Bay terminal expansion is relevant for these corridors as well and was described in Table 8.9. One enabling reform specific to the Walvis Bay corridors exists, as is listed in Table 8.14. The Kazungula OSBP, attributed to the North- South Corridor and listed in Table 8.3., also serves the Trans Caprivi Corridor. Only one railway project was identified that pertained specifically to this corridor, and this was new construction between Grootfontein and Livingstone in Namibia. On the Trans Cunene Corridor, two projects were identified in Angola. They are described in Table 8.14. The projects are visualized in Figure 8.4. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Table 8.14. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Walvis Bay Corridors No. Project name Countries Corridors US$ Mnl Installation of truck speed Trans-Kalahari, monitoring equipment on TBC: (Data not 1 Namibia Trans Caprivi, section before Usakos en available) Trans Kunene route to Karibib Source: World Bank. Table 8.15. Railway projects identified on the Walvis Bay Corridors Project stage Project name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. Distance, km Grootfontein – S3A Livingstone (new Namibia Trans Caprivi 9500 919 construction) Luanda/Dondo – S1 Benguela – Lubango Angola Trans Cunene 2410 689 (new construction) Lubango-Santa S1 Clara (new Angola Trans Cunene 1240 413 construction) Source: World Bank. One road expansion project with a positive NPV was identified on the Trans Cunene Corridor, none on the Trans Caprivi Corridor, and it ranked 11th out of 15 road expansion projects identified in Southern Africa. A total of seven road rehabilitation projects were identified on the two corridors, stratified into short, medium, and long-term priorities in Table 8.17., Table 8.18., and Table 8.19., respectively. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 131 Table 8.16. Road expansion projects identified on the Walvis Bay Corridors Project name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. NPV, US$ Mn. Lane addition T0111 Oshikango – Olukonda / Namibia Trans Cunene 27.8 20 Uukwiyu Source: World Bank. Table 8.17. Short-term Road improvement projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors Priority to Length, No. Project Name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. US$ per km improve km resilience Rehabilitation/ Trans Reseal of Caprivi/ 1 section Namibia 39.79 237 167,889 No Trans Swakopmund – Cunene Otavi Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section Trans 2 Namibia 793.67 42 18,896,862 No Tsumeb – Cunene Oskikango/ Santa Clara BP Source: World Bank. Table 8.18. Medium-term Road improvement projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors Priority to Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. improve km km resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section Trans 1 Namibia 32.85 149 220,480 No Tsumeb – Cunene Oskikango/ Santa Clara BP Rehabilitation/ Trans Reseal of Caprivi/ 2 section Namibia 253.98 118 2,152,352 No Trans Swakopmund – Cunene Otavi Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 132 Table 8.19. Long-term Road improvement projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors Priority to Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. improve km km resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of Trans 1 section Tsumeb Namibia 1.17 52 22,580 No Cunene – Oskikango/ Santa Clara BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of Trans 2 section Tsumeb Namibia 32.85 149 220,480 No Cunene – Oskikango/ Santa Clara BP Rehabilitation/ Trans Reseal of Caprivi/ 3 section Namibia 452.93 237 1,911,081 No Trans Swakopmund – Cunene Otavi Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 133 Figure 8.4. Projects on the Walvis Bay Corridors Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 134 8.6.1. Dar es Salaam Corridor The Dar es Salaam Corridor has one border post-specific project, listed in Table 8.20. It is the Nakonde OSBP on the Zambian side and was listed as 3rd out of 11 border post upgrade priorities in the region. Table 8.21. lists the relevant port projects. The proposed Dar es Salaam Port upgrades are two-fold: the strengthening of the current 8-11 berths, and the development of a new container terminal (on berths 12-15) Both are justified in financial terms, but without greater modal shift, more road traffic creates more congestion, more safety issues in Dar and along the corridor. Table 8.20. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Dar es Salaam Corridor Priority Project name Countries Corridor US$US$ Mnl Nakonde OSBP 3 Zambia Dar es Salaam 50 Zambia side Source: World Bank. Table 8.21. Port projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor Annual Annual Throughput heavy heavy NPV, Project name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. in 2019, vehicle vehicle US$ Mn. MTPA traffic, traffic, 2019 2050 Dar es Salaam Container Dar es Terminal – Tanzania 450 -98 16.02 468 040 5 077 515 Salaam Strengthening of Berths 8-11 Dar es Salaam – new Dar es Tanzania 450 container Salaam terminal Source: World Bank. One railway rehabilitation project was identified on the Dar es Salaam Corridor, between Dar and Kapiri Mposhi, listed in Table 8.22. It has a negative NPV, which suggests that cost minimization strategies should be employed where possible. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 135 Table 8.22. Railway projects identified on the Dar es Salaam Corridor Annual Annual Project US$ NPV, US$ traffic, traffic, Project name Countries Corridor stage Mn. Mn. MTPA MTPA 2019 2050 Dar es Salaam- Tanzania/ Dar es S3 558 -942 0.23 9.25 Kapiri Mposhi rehab Malawi Salaam Source: World Bank. Similarly, one road expansion project was identified, described in Table 8.23., between Dar and Morogoro, also with a negative NPV. It is ranked 15th out of 15 road expansion projects in the region. Table 8.23. Road expansion projects identified in the Dar es Salaam Corridor Project name Countries Corridor US$US$ Mn. NPV, US$US$ Mn. Lane addition A7 – Dar es Salaam Tanzania Dar es Salaam 107.3 -148 – Morogoro Source: World Bank. There were several road rehabilitation projects identified on the corridor, and on roads that serve both the Dar es Salaam and North-South Corridors. The short, medium, and long-term priorities are listed in Table 8.24., Table 8.25., and Table 8.26., respectively. The majority of the projects are long-term priorities, relevant after 2035. The projects are shown on a map in Figure 8.5. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Table 8.24. Short-term Road improvement projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor Priority to US$ Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries Corridor improve Mn. km km resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 1 of section Tunduma/ Zambia 37.59 72 522,021 Partially Salaam Nakonde – Kapiri Mposhi Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 2 of section Mbeya – Tanzania 47.65 222 214,624 Yes Salaam Tunduma/Nakonde BP Rehabilitation/Reseal of North- 3 section Lusaka – Kapiri Zambia South/Dar 92.18 429 214,870 No Mposhi Es Salaam Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 136 Table 8.25. Medium-term Road improvement projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor Priority to US$ Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries Corridor improve Mn. km km resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 1 of section Tunduma/ Zambia 6.95 378 18,383 Partially Salaam Nakonde – Kapiri Mposhi Rehabilitation/Reseal of North- 2 section Lusaka – Kapiri Zambia South/Dar 17.32 9 1,924,092 No Mposhi Es Salaam Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 3 of section Mbeya – Tanzania 23.64 11 2,149,080 Yes Salaam Tunduma/Nakonde BP Source: World Bank. Table 8.26. Long-term Road improvement projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor Priority to Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. improve km km resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 1 of section Tunduma/ Zambia 8.30 50 165,924 Partially Salaam Nakonde – Kapiri Mposhi Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 2 of section Port of Dar es Tanzania 17.52 794 22,070 No Salaam Salaam – Mbeya Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 3 of section Mbeya – Tanzania 214.59 100 2,145,932 Yes Salaam Tunduma/Nakonde BP North- Rehabilitation/Reseal of South/ 4 section Lusaka – Kapiri Zambia 287.88 134 2,148,352 No Dar Es Mposhi Salaam Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 5 of section Mbeya – Tanzania 2.38 12 198,528 Yes Salaam Tunduma/Nakonde BP North- Rehabilitation/Reseal of South/ 6 section Lusaka – Kapiri Zambia 4.69 215 21,812 No Dar Es Mposhi Salaam Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 137 Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 7 of section Tunduma/ Zambia 6.95 378 18,383 Partially Salaam Nakonde – Kapiri Mposhi Rehabilitation/Reseal Dar es 8 of section Port of Dar es Tanzania 17.52 794 22,070 No Salaam Salaam – Mbeya Source: World Bank. Figure 8.5. Projects on the Dar es Salaam Corridor Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 138 8.6.2. Lobito Corridor The Lobito Corridor runs from Lobito Port in Angola to the DRC border, where it connects to the national railways. No border post upgrades were identified as needed. Several rail projects were identified, but none with sufficient information to be able to carry out a cost-benefit analysis. They are listed in Table 8.27. Table 8.27. Rail projects identified on the Lobito Corridor Project stage Project name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. Distance, km S1 Jimpe-Chililabombwe Zambia Lobito 1350-2700 270 (new construction) S1 Luacano – Jimpe (new Angola/Zambia Lobito 5300-10,600 530 construction) Source: World Bank. No road expansion or road rehabilitation projects were identified on the Lobito Corridor. A map of the Corridor is shown in Figure 8.6. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Figure 8.6. Projects on the Lobito Corridor Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 139 8.6.3. Maputo Corridor The Maputo Corridor runs from Maputo to Gauteng. Overall, the Maputo Corridor is expected to run into capacity constraints in the future, and both road expansions and port upgrades will be needed. Enabling reforms specific to the Maputo Corridor are listed in Table 8.28. The Maputo Container Terminal Upgrade would generate significant savings in terms of distance travelled, shown in Table 8.29. It is ranked 2nd out of five port projects in the region. Table 8.28. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Maputo Corridor No Project name Countries US$ Mnl 1 Ressano Garcia/Komatipoort OSBP South Africa/Mozambique TBD Source: World Bank. Table 8.29. Port projects identified on the Maputo Corridor Annual Annual Throughput heavy heavy NPV, US$ Project name Countries US$ Mn. in 2019, vehicle vehicle Mn. MTPA traffic, traffic, 2019 2050 Maputo Container Mozambique 600 19 662 16.78 421 575 1 379 335 Terminal Upgrade Source: World Bank. Only one railway project on this Corridor was identified as having potential, described in Table 8.30. However, insufficient information was available, and a cost-benefit analysis was not performed. Table 8.30. Railway projects identified on the Maputo Corridor Project stage Project name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. Distance, km Maputo – Ressano Garcia 61km doubling S3A Mozambique Maputo 209 61 and signalling (capacity improvement) Source: World Bank. Several road expansion and road improvement projects were identified on this corridor. The road expansion projects rank 2nd, 4th, 5th, and 12th out of 15 projects in Southern Africa, and all have a positive NPV. The routes between Maputo Port and the Gauteng region in South Africa will need additional capacity. They are listed in Table 8.31., while the short, medium, and long term road improvements are listed in Table 8.32., Table 8.33., and Table 8.34., respectively. The projects are shown in Figure 8.7. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 140 Table 8.31. Road expansion projects identified on the Maputo Corridor Project name Countries US$ Mn. NPV, US$ Mn. Lane addition N4 – Komatipoort – Maputo Mozambique 37.1 53 Lane addition N4 – Ngodwana – Lebombo South Africa 68.4 108 Lane addition N4 – R104 int – Schoemanskloof split South Africa 20.9 27 Lane addition N4 – Schoemanskloof South Africa 4.4 3 Source: World Bank. Table 8.32. Short-term Road improvement projects on the Maputo Corridor Priority to US$ Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries improve Mn. km km resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 1 eMalahleni/Witbank – Pretoria/ South Africa 2.73 193 14,129 Yes Tshwane Rehabilitation/Reseal of 2 section eMalahleni/Witbank – South Africa 27.40 255 107,439 Yes Johannesburg Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 3 Maputo – Ressano Garcia/ Mozambique 174.39 97 1,797,797 Yes Komatipoort BP Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 4 Ressano Garcia/Komatipoort BP South Africa 969.30 658 1,473,096 Yes – eMalahleni Source: World Bank. Table 8.33. Medium-term Road improvement projects on the Maputo Corridor Priority to US$ Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries improve Mn. km km resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 1 eMalahleni/Witbank – Pretoria/ South Africa 1.73 16 108,305 Yes Tshwane Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 2 South Africa 13.70 128 107,019 Yes eMalahleni/Witbank – Johannesburg Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 3 Ressano Garcia/Komatipoort BP – South Africa 14.85 138 107,576 Yes eMalahleni Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 4 Maputo – Ressano Garcia/ Mozambique 174.39 97 1,797,797 Yes Komatipoort BP Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 141 Table 8.34. Long-term Road improvement projects on the Maputo Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 1 eMalahleni/ South Africa 11.21 14 801,049 Yes Witbank – Pretoria/Tshwane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 2 Ressano Garcia/ South Africa 33.62 19 1,769,440 Yes Komatipoort BP – eMalahleni Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 3 Maputo – Mozambique 34.53 32 1,078,948 Yes Ressano Garcia/ Komatipoort BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 4 eMalahleni/ South Africa 13.70 128 107,019 Yes Witbank – Johannesburg Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 5 Maputo – Mozambique 13.99 65 215,169 Yes Ressano Garcia/ Komatipoort BP Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 6 eMalahleni/ South Africa 95.11 89 1,068,697 Yes Witbank – Pretoria/Tshwane Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 7 Ressano Garcia/ South Africa 372.28 276 1,348,825 Yes Komatipoort BP – eMalahleni Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 142 Figure 8.7. Projects on the Maputo Corridor Source: World Bank. 8.6.4. Beira Corridor The Beira Corridor runs from Beira Port to Harare, Zimbabwe, and Zambia. The Forbes Reef/ Machipanda border upgrade, listed in Table 8.35., was ranked 7th of 11 border post upgrades in the region. Beira port will run into capacity problems within the next 15 years. It was therefore prioritized above the other port investments in the region and ranks first. Details are shown in Table 8.36. Three railway projects were also identified on the Beira Corridor, shown in Table 8.37. The first project, the Beira-Moatize upgrade, needs to undergo a cost minimization exercise, to increase NPV above zero. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 143 Table 8.35. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Beira Corridor No. Project name Countries US$ Mnl 1 Forbes Reef/Machipanda OSBP in Mozambique/Zimbabwe 100 Mozambique Source: World Bank. Table 8.36. Port projects identified on the Beira Corridor Annual Annual Throughput heavy heavy NPV, US$ Project name Countries US$ Mn. in 2019, vehicle vehicle Mn. MTPA traffic, traffic, 2019 2050 Beira Bulk & Multipurpose Mozambique 250 1 044 11.08 581 080 3 645 255 Terminal Source: World Bank. Table 8.37. Railway projects identified on the Beira Corridor Annual Annual Project NPV, Distance, traffic, traffic, Project name Countries US$ Mn stage US$ Mn km MTPA MTPA 2019 2050 Beira – Moatize S1 Mozambique 163.5 -458 8.12 30.25 upgrade Mutarara Mozambique/ S3A – Bangula 116 116 Malawi (rehabilitation) New/ reconstructed S3A Malawi 649 433 line from Limbe to Beira Port Source: World Bank. Two road expansion projects, listed in Table 8.38., were identified on the Beira Corridor, in Malawi and Mozambique, ranked 6th and 7th out of 15 projects. The road rehabilitation projects are listed in Table 8.39., Table 8.40., and Table 8.41. The short-term priorities were ranked as the 1st and 14th most important short-term priority in Southern Africa. The main projects are shown in Figure 8.8. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 144 Table 8.38. Road expansion projects on Beira Corridor Project name Countries US$ Mn. NPV, US$ Mn. Lane addition N11 – Milange – Mocuba Mozambique 110.8 26 Lane addition M2 – Blantyre – Milange Malawi 264 132 Source: World Bank. Table 8.39. Short-term Road improvement projects on Beira Corridor Priority to Length, US$ per No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn. improve km km resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 1 Mozambique 0.20 20 7,483 No Beira Port – Inchope Rehabilitation/Reseal of section 2 Mozambique 11.48 86 133,521 Yes Inchope – Tete Source: World Bank. Table 8.40. Medium-term Road improvement projects on Beira Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal of 1 Mozambique 183.60 86 2,134,869 Yes section Inchope – Tete Source: World Bank. Table 8.41. Long-term Road improvement projects on Beira Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/ Reseal of section 1 Mozambique 58.86 55 1,070,162 No Beira Port – Inchope Rehabilitation/ 2 Reseal of section Mozambique 327.42 172 1,903,590 Yes Inchope – Tete Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 145 Figure 8.8. Projects on the Beira Corridor Source: World Bank. 8.6.5. Nacala Corridor The Nacala Corridor runs from Nacala Port to Malawi and Lusaka, Zambia. Several border posts were identified as priorities for expansions – Mwami ranks first in the region, Mchinji 4th. They are listed in Table 8.42. The Nacala Port Coal Terminal expansion is the most expensive project amongst the five port projects identified in the region, and may create the risk of stranded assets, as construction is currently planned to start in 2035. It is therefore ranked 4th out of 5 port projects in the region. Efforts should be made to improve the flexibility of the project and reduce risk of stranded assets. Two railway projects with limited information were identified on the Nacala Corridor. Both are located in Malawi. Table 8.42. Border posts and enabling reforms on the Nacala Corridor Project name Countries US$ Mn. Mwami OSBP Zambia 20.9 Mchinji OSBP Malawi 68.4 Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 146 Table 8.43. Port projects identified on Nacala Corridor Annual Annual Throughput heavy heavy Project NPV, US$ Countries Corridor US$ Mn. in 2019, vehicle vehicle name Mn. MTPA traffic, traffic, 2019 2050 Nacala Port Coal Mozambique Nacala 950 32 12.30 215 715 1 619 870 Terminal Expansion Source: World Bank. Table 8.44. Railway projects identified on Nacala Corridor Project stage Project name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. Distance, km Chipata – Petauke – S3A Malawi Nacala 1452 363 Serenje (new construction) Limbre – S1 Sandania Malawi Nacala 112 112 (rehabilitation) Source: World Bank. The road expansion projects on the Nacala Corridor are listed in Table 8.45. These projects were ranked as 13th and 14th of 15 projects in the region, and only the lane addition between Tete and Chimoio in Mozambique has a positive NPV. Nonetheless, these projects are at Concept stage (S1) only and projected investment costs may fall significantly, which would make these projects socially beneficial. The short-term road rehabilitation priority around Chipata was ranked 4th out of all projects in the region, listed in Table 8.46. Table 8.47. and Table 8.48. list the medium and long-term rehabilitation projects necessary on the corridor. The main projects are shown in Figure 8.9. This excludes road rehabilitation projects and projects for which insufficient information was available to accurately represent them on a map. Table 8.45. Road expansion projects identified on Nacala Corridor Priority Project name Countries Corridor US$ Mn. NPV, US$ Mn. 13 Lane addition N7 – Mozambique Nacala 162.1 35 Tete – Chimoio 14 Lane addition N13 – Mozambique Nacala 352.9 -203 Mandimba – Nacala Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 147 Table 8.46. Short-term Road improvement projects on the Nacala Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal of 1 section Chipata – Mchinji/ Zambia 0.72 42 17,181 Yes Chipata BP Rehabilitation/Reseal 2 of section Milange BP – Mozambique 8.79 5 1,757,159 No Blantyre Rehabilitation/Reseal 3 of section Tete – Mozambique 23.74 15 1,582,897 Yes Cassacatiza/Chinida BP Rehabilitation/Reseal of 4 Zambia 32.16 167 192,553 Yes section Chipata – Katete Rehabilitation/Reseal of 5 Zambia 183.36 959 191,203 Yes section Katete – Lusaka Source: World Bank. Table 8.47. Medium-term Road improvement projects on the Nacala Corridor No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km Priority to improve resilience 1 Rehabilitation/Reseal of Zambia 4.48 3 1,493,958 Yes section Chipata – Mchinji/ Chipata BP 2 Rehabilitation/Reseal of Zambia 12.82 479 26,762 Yes section Katete – Lusaka 3 Rehabilitation/Reseal of Zambia 17.95 84 213,724 Yes section Chipata – Katete 4 Rehabilitation/Reseal of Mozambique 32.58 15 2,171,909 Yes section Tete – Cassacatiza/ Chinida BP Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 148 Table 8.48. Long-term Road improvement projects on the Nacala Corridor Priority to No. Project Name Countries US$ Mn. Length, km US$ per km improve resilience Rehabilitation/Reseal 1 of section Tete – Mozambique 0.59 3 196,617 Yes Cassacatiza/Chinida BP Rehabilitation/Reseal 2 of section Milange BP – Mozambique 8.79 5 1,757,159 No Blantyre Rehabilitation/Reseal of 3 Zambia 12.82 479 26,762 Yes section Katete – Lusaka Rehabilitation/Reseal 4 of section Chipata – Zambia 79.93 42 1,903,015 Yes Mchinji/Chipata BP Source: World Bank. Figure 8.9. Projects on the Nacala Corridor Source: World Bank. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 149 8.7. Conclusion Almost 300 projects for infrastructure, trade and transport improvement were identified as part of a project screening process. A total of 60 road projections, five road safety projects, 16 railway projects, two seaports, eight intermodal hubs, and five border post projects were identified as part of the literature scoping review. A further 15 road capacity upgrades, 121 road rehabilitation projects, one road overload control project, three rail projects, six seaports, 15 border post investments, and 19 enabling reforms were identified as a result of the transport model assignment modelling. This screening included a review of available master plans, feasibility studies, and investment plans, conversations with relevant organizations and government counterparts, and pinch points identified in the transportation model. Both infrastructure and trade facilitation measures were considered. For 24 projects, sufficient information was available, and a strategic cost-benefit analysis was conducted. This included measuring the expected impact of the project in the transport model and calculating the ratio of expected time and transport cost benefits to the capital expenditure of the investment. Externalities were not included in the evaluation of capacity upgrades. Twenty nine projects were advanced and had secured financing and were included in the 2050 transport model as committed projects. Many of the enabling reforms identified in this report are underway. Five ports will experience capacity problems in the short run and will need to be upgraded. For most of the proposed railway projects, there was insufficient information available to conduct a strategic CBA. At least 11 border crossing points are expected to reach capacity and will need to be upgraded. These are a priority, as waiting times at borders can contribute significantly to overall transport time, and therefore increase trade costs. Fifteen road expansion projects were identified, the majority of which will lead to significant time savings. Finally, 121 rehabilitation and renovation projects on various road sections were identified, split into short-, medium-, and long-term projects. If rehabilitation projects were also on a road section considered part of critical infrastructure at risk from flooding, extreme heat, or extreme wind, it was also considered a priority to improve resilience. The prioritization lists provided in this Chapter may be used to guide national planning efforts on where next to fund the relevant pre-feasibility studies (in the case of projects identified by the transport model only), or feasibility studies and earmark funding (in the case of projects that are past the pre-feasibility stage and have a positive NPV). In general, for projects with negative NPV values, cost minimization exercises should be attempted. A climate module for HDM-4 is being developed. In the future, this will make it possible for maintenance planning to include climate resilience considerations. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 150 References World Bank (2005). Transport Note No. TRN-5: Notes on the Economic Evaluation of Transport Projects. World Bank (2016). Discounting Costs and Benefits in Economic Analysis of World Bank Projects. Zutari, Ltd. (2023). Regional Trade Facilitation and Transport Sector Review for the Southern African Countries: Short- and Medium-Term Improvement Options. Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 151 Image Credits Page No Source Cover Page Adobe Stock xviii Adobe Stock 1 Adobe Stock 5 Adobe Stock 6 Adobe Stock 14 Adobe Stock 16 Adobe Stock 28 Adobe Stock 31 Adobe Stock 33 Adobe Stock 37 Adobe Stock 41 Adobe Stock 44 Adobe Stock 46 Adobe Stock 50 Adobe Stock 59 Adobe Stock 66 Adobe Stock 68 Adobe Stock 76 Adobe Stock 78 Adobe Stock 84 Adobe Stock 87 Adobe Stock 93 Adobe Stock 108 Adobe Stock 128 Adobe Stock 132 Adobe Stock 151 Adobe Stock Back Cover Adobe Stock Overcoming the Barriers to Green, Resilient, Inclusive, and Efficient Regional Trade Corridors in Southern Africa  | 152