Shifting the Mobility Paradigm of Intermediate Cities in Tanzania Urban Transport for People Shifting the Mobility Paradigm of Intermediate Cities in Tanzania Urban Transport for People Maria Catalina Ochoa Juliana Aguilar-Restrepo Jesse Harber Daniel Turk June 2021 © 2021 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: @ Chris Morgan / World Bank. Further permission required for reuse. Cover design: Theresia Mmasi and Arafa C. Hamadi v Contents Foreword ix Acknowledgments x About the Authors xi Abbreviations xiii Executive Summary 14 Chapter 01 The State and Trends of Mobility 26 1. The State of Mobility 31 2. Megatrends and Expected Effects: A small window of opportunity to act 51 Chapter 02 The Causes of Poor Accessibility 62 1. Strategic Vision 64 2. Governance 70 3. Finance 76 4. Management and Operations 79 Chapter 03 A Plan for Better Urban Transport 86 1. Sustainable Mobility as a Guiding Principle 89 2. Designing an Intervention Program 92 3. Recommendations 93 4. A National Program to Support Sustainable Urban Mobility in Tanzania 101 References 106 Annex A. A Menu of Suggested Interventions 112 Annex B. Sustainable Urban Mobility City Deep Dive: Dodoma and Mwanza 120 Annex C. Accessibility Analysis in Four Intermediate Cities in Tanzania 138 Endnotes 148 vi Tables Table 1 Recommendations for shifting the mobility paradigm 22 Table 2 Institutions involved in mobility infrastructure and services 71 Table 3 Status of roads maintenance needs against available budget 77 Table 4 Income of TARURA by source per year for the last 3 years 78 Table A1 Opportunities data source 140 Table A2 Area, population, and average population density by city boundary 142 Table A3 Accessibility to jobs and amenities by scenario and city 144 Figures Figure 1 The majority of citizens in Tanzania’s intermediate cities commute using non-motorized modes of transport 31 Figure 2 Affordability of transport in intermediate cities is low, especially for the poorest 32 Figure 3 Accessibility to jobs and amenities 34 Figure 4 Accessibility to jobs is low in Moshi and Arusha 37 Figure 5 Modal split for trips to school 38 Figure 6 Type and quality of roads managed by TARURA in 11 cities 40 Figure 7 Non-motorized transport users have minimal dedicated infrastructure 43 Figure 8 Public transport accessibility to jobs in the agglomeration of Moshi would almost double if service reliability improved 46 Figure 9 Mbeya and Njombe have very high rates of accidents causing injury or death 49 Figure 10 Motorcycle accidents are a high share of total accidents 50 Figure 11 Vicious cycle of urban sprawl, motorization and congestion 51 Figure 12 Tanzania has a strong relationship between economic growth and car ownership 53 Figure 13 Private motorized transport modes have a high impact on road space 55 Figure 14 Accessibility to jobs deteriorates under higher congestion 58 Figure 15 Causes of poor urban accessibility 63 Figure 16 People-centered Mobility Paradigm 66 Figure 17 Process of selection and approval of TARURA’s new development projects 73 Figure 18 Uncontrolled access from adjacent land uses is a source of turbulence and hazard for highway traffic on the road 83 Figure A1 Average accessibility to opportunities by scenario in Dodoma 122 Figure A2 Accessibility to jobs using public transport in Dodoma 124 Figure A3 Composition of TARURA’s funding by city 126 Figure A4 Transport mode used to commute to work in Mwanza 130 Figure A5 Average accessibility to opportunities by scenario in Mwanza 130 Figure A6 Accessibility to jobs using public transport in Mwanza 132 Figure A7 Composition of TARURA’s funding by city 134 Figure A8 Jobs distribution and accessibility by city 146 vii Boxes Box 1 Mobility and accessibility 28 Box 2 Four attributes of sustainable mobility 29 Box 3 Tanzania system of cities: urban areas and urban population 33 Box 4 Measuring accessibility to jobs and amenities in four intermediate cities in Tanzania 36 Box 5 Non-motorized transport networks 41 Box 6 Road allocation in city centers using satellite imagery 42 Box 7 Freight infrastructure 43 Box 8 Parking management 44 Box 9 Poor user experience on daladalas 45 Box 10 Social fares and technical fares 48 Box 11 Volume-to-capacity threshold 57 Box 12 Why Seoul’s Satellite Towns didn’t work 65 Box 13 Demand side data is key to effective planning and operation of transport infrastructure and services: the case of Bogota’s bike paths 81 Box 14 Progress in urban transport in Kigali, Rwanda 87 Box 15 Transport and the geometry of urban space 91 Box 16 Best practice in Sustainable Urban Mobility in Ethiopia 94 Box 17 Best practices in transport governance 97 Box 18 Best practices in transport financing: Tanzania’s Road Fund Board 98 Box 19 Best practices in transport data 100 Box 20 Key features of various national programs for the support of urban transport 102 Box 21 Mozambique’s Manual of Methodology for preparation of urban mobility Master Plans 103 x Mwanza ix Foreword Sustainable urban mobility is critical for Tanzania’s development ambitions. In July 2020, following two decades of sustained growth and investment, Tanzania reached the major milestone of becoming a lower middle-income country. This is a significant accomplishment. It is also a major opportunity. As the World Bank discussed in the latest Economic Update, “Raising the Bar: Achieving Tanzania’s Development Vision”, this is the moment to promote inclusive growth, better living standards, and better services for its people. The Tanzania Development Vision 2025 calls for national development that is “people-centered, based on sustainable and shared growth, and […] free from abject poverty”. It also calls for a strong and competitive economy, able to respond to existing and emerging challenges of development. As Tanzania prepares its next Five-Year Development Plan, it will be considering how all sectors of its economy and society can contribute to this vision. As this report shows, sustainable urban mobility—urban mobility systems aimed at maximizing accessibility for urban residents, especially by non-motorized transit and public transport—will be increasingly necessary to manage Tanzania’s high rate of population growth, connect people to jobs and services for improved productivity and livelihoods, and prepare cities for the next level of Tanzania’s development. By attempting to achieve sustainable urban mobility, Tanzania will join countries in Africa and around the world in pursuing mobility policies focused on people instead of cars. Rwanda, Ethiopia, and Mozambique are all actively pursuing national reforms on sustainable urban mobility. This more holistic approach to urban transport is focused on better serving the majority of urban residents who commute by foot or public transport, rather than the very small minority with access to private cars. It calls for coordinating mobility and urban development policies to build cities that are less car dependent, through high-quality densification, and to enable better access to employment and amenities for all. As sustainable urban mobility becomes the dominant approach in transport and urban policy, Tanzania should not lag behind. This is a pivotal moment for Tanzania’s approach to mobility in intermediate cities. There has been great progress improving mobility in Dar es Salaam, but intermediate cities are at a different point in their development: still small enough to enjoy high accessibility by foot and public transport, but rapidly heading towards a congested, car-dependent future. Intervening now, by creating non-motorized- and public transport-centered mobility and land use systems, can put these cities on a more sustainable trajectory and avoid the very high costs of retrofitting later on. They have a critical role to play in Tanzania’s ongoing development, and cannot afford to be neglected. This report is intended to start an important conversation on sustainable urban mobility. It assesses the state of—and trends in—urban mobility in intermediate cities in Tanzania, and traces the factors contributing to the prevailing problems. It provides detailed policy recommendations on how to transform urban mobility, and lists a menu of policy and infrastructure options that can be considered, organized by the ease and costs of implementing them. The World Bank looks forward to working closely with the Government of Tanzania to support solutions that can help intermediate cities in the country function at their full potential and contribute to sustainable development. Mara Warwick Country Director for Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia and Zimbabwe World Bank x Acknowledgements This report is the result of the Tanzania Transport Sector Advisory Services and Analytics study (ASA) “Shifting the Mobility Paradigm of Intermediate Cities in Tanzania.” The report was prepared by a team led by Catalina Ochoa (Senior Urban Transport Specialist) and comprising Juliana Aguilar-Restrepo (Urban Economist Consultant), Jesse Harber (Research Fellow), and Daniel Turk (Transport Specialist Consultant). The team is grateful for the valuable inputs from urban specialist MaryGrace Lugakingira and transport specialist William Thornhill. Ines Muganyizi provided research assistance and Tatiana Daza and Imma Killasama provided program assistance. This report represents the first result of the dialogue between the Government of Tanzania and the World Bank, initiated in March 2019 with the aim of rethinking urban transport in Tanzanian intermediate cities. The team thanks the President’s Office Regional Administration and Local Government (PO-RALG) and Tanzania Rural and Urban Roads Agency (TARURA), especially Prof. Riziki Shemdoe, Permanent Secretary PO-RALG; Eng. Victor Seff, CEO TARURA; and Eng. Venant Komba and Eng. Humphrey Kanyenye, TARURA, for the continuous dialogue and support. The team also thanks all the collaborators from the Ministry of Works, Transport and Communications, the Land Transport Regulatory Authority (LATRA), the Tanzania National Roads Agency (TanRoads), and local governments for providing data for the study and cooperating throughout its development. The report was produced under the supervision of Benedict Eijbergen, Practice Manager East Africa Transport Unit. Mara Warwick (Country Director for Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) and Preeti Arora (Operations Manager for Tanzania, Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe) provided guidance and leadership throughout the preparation of the report. The team is also grateful for the advice of Ramon Munoz Raskin and peer reviewers Zoe Elena Trohanis, Georges Darido, Franck Taillandier, and Eric Dickson. Linda Klinger edited the report. Theresia Mmasi and Arafa C. Hamadi designed and typeset the report. Photos from Tanzanian cities were taken by Chris Morgan. xi About the Authors Maria Catalina Ochoa is a senior transport specialist at the World Bank working at the intersection of transport, data, and technology. She manages several urban transport initiatives in the East Africa region, and leads several disruptive technology initiatives at the World Bank. Before moving to East Africa, she led the World Bank urban transport portfolio in Argentina and Mexico and worked in operations in Latin America and Asia. Maria Catalina has substantial experience in the tech and start-up space. With Amazon she worked on their supply chain and logistics strategy, and at Uber she was strategy manager and general manager in Latin America and Africa and the Middle East. Maria Catalina is a recognized voice in the transport community and has published on transport and open data, disruptive technology, drones, jobs accessibility, clean technology, logistics, climate change, gender, mobility as a service, and other topics. She is an engineer with an MSc in transport engineering and an MCP in city and regional planning from the University of California at Berkeley, and an MBA from INSEAD. Juliana Aguilar-Restrepo has been a consultant at the World Bank since 2015, based in Tanzania between 2018 and 2021. Her main areas of interest are urban economic development and impact evaluation. She participated in various research projects in Africa, including Dar es Salaam Bus Rapid Transit System Impact Evaluation, Africa’s Cities: Opening Doors to the World and several urbanization reviews. She holds an MPP from the University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and a Master of Economics from Universidad de los Andes (Colombia). Jesse Harber is a WBG-Africa Fellow in the World Bank’s Transport Global Practice, and a PhD candidate in Development Studies at SOAS University of London. His research concerns the governance of transport in Africa, focusing on the political economy of major transport projects. He has worked for the Gauteng City-Region Observatory (GCRO) and the National Treasury of South Africa, and is currently a research associate at the GCRO and the Public Affairs Research Institute. Daniel Turk has worked internationally in urban transport for over 25 years, with Louis Berger International Inc., the Inter-American Development Bank, and as a consultant at the World Bank. He has supported the preparation and execution of policy and infrastructure initiatives in South and Central America, Africa, and Asia. He also has experience within the United States at the federal and city level, with the Federal Transit Administration and the City of Beaverton, Oregon, facilitating funding of public transport and managing the implementation of complete streets. He holds a master’s degree in Transportation from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Arusha xiii Abbreviations ASA Advisory Services and Analytics ASI Avoid-Shift-Improve AVL Automatic vehicle locator BRT Bus Rapid Transit System CBD Central Business District CDA Capital Development Authority DART Dar es Salaam Rapid Transit Agency DROMAS District Road Management System DUTA Dar es Salaam Urban Transport Authority GoT Government of Tanzania GTFS General Transit Feed Specification ITA Integrated Transport Agencies JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LATRA Land Transport Regulatory Authority LGA Local government authority LTA Land Transport Authority MEST Ministry of Education, Science, and Technology MHA Ministry of Home Affairs MHSW Ministry of Health, and Social Welfare MLHHS Ministry of Lands, Housing, and Human Settlements Development MPO Metropolitan Planning Organization MWTC Ministry of Works, Transport, and Communications NMT Non-motorized transport PO-RALG President’s Office Regional Administration and Local Government pph People per hectare PT Public Transport RAIS Road Accident Information System RFB Road Fund Board SBR Statistical Business Registry SITM Integrated Systems of Mass Transport SUMP Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan TanRoads Tanzania National Roads Agency TARURA Tanzania Rural and Urban Roads Agency TSCP Tanzania Strategic Cities Project TZS Tanzanian Shillings ULGSP Local Government Strengthening Program V/C Volume-to-capacity WHO World Health Organization Executive Summary Tanzania’s intermediate cities have the potential to play a critical role in the country’s economic development. To reap the benefits of urbanization, however, cities need to lay the groundwork for productive and inclusive growth, and that requires establishing mobility systems for people rather than private cars. The high rates of urban population growth in the country are an opportunity to reap the benefits of agglomeration economies and contribute to economic growth and shared prosperity, but they also represent a challenge: to deliver urban services to a rapidly growing population in a timely and sustainable manner. One of these services— mobility—is key to bringing people and businesses closer to each other and spurring growth. Relying uniquely on private, motorized modes of transport (i.e., cars and motorcycles) comes with large economic, social, and environmental costs. It fuels a cycle of automobile dependence where high motorization rates lead to congestion, which leads policymakers to invest in more roads at high expense, which in turn induces higher motorization and urban sprawl. As many cities in the world have witnessed, including Dar es Salaam, as a city grows, it is increasingly costly to retrofit and break this cycle of automobile dependence; as such, enhancing sustainable urban mobility at an early stage is key to taking advantage of the benefits of urbanization in intermediate cities in Tanzania. Tanzania has a short window of opportunity Tanzania has a short to shift its mobility paradigm to favor people. Presently, Tanzania’s intermediate window of opportunity cities—17 cities which will have populations to shift its mobility between 250,000 and 2 million by 2030, paradigm to favor people. including Mwanza, Dodoma, and Arusha— have a desirable modal split, dominated by non-motorized modes, and public transport provides adequate access to jobs and city amenities. However, trends suggest these cities will soon be trapped in the cycle of automobile dependence if prompt action is not taken. Demand for motorized modes is growing fast and cities are expanding at low population densities, fueling a vicious cycle and impeding the development of sustainable mobility systems. Many Tanzanians will be left behind, unable to afford public transport and living far from opportunities. This report assesses the state of mobility in intermediate cities and proposes four areas — strategic vision, governance, finance, and management — where intervention would allow Tanzania to prepare these cities’ mobility systems for a more sustainable future. Sustainable urban mobility, in practice, is achieved with dense, livable cities, non-motorized transport (NMT) infrastructure, and high-quality public transport systems. Aligning the strategic vision towards these goals, establishing institutional arrangements that meet urban mobility needs, tapping into new finance sources for the sector, and improving management and operations for a more efficient use of available resources can ensure Tanzania’s intermediate cities and their mobility systems are ready for future growth and development. 15 Arusha 1. The State and Trends of Sustainable Urban Mobility 1.1 Though public transport provides reasonable accessibility, intermediate cities face challenges to make their transport systems more inclusive, efficient, safe, and resilient Sustainable transport modes dominate commuting choices in intermediate cities in Tanzania, although many people cannot afford public transport. About 60% of people in intermediate cities commute by foot, but many not by choice: commuting by daladala instead of walking would require the poorest households to nearly double their average monthly expenditure on transport. Only a very small number of people can afford motorcycles and cars, which together comprise less than 10% of trips. Cycling, as a low-cost, high-efficiency mode of medium-distance transport, has enormous unrealized potential in most cities, but is used for fewer than 10% of trips. Intermediate cities are small in population and area, which favors accessibility to jobs and amenities. However, accessibility to opportunities deteriorates as cities expand at low density while the poorest cannot afford public transport. Out of four urban agglomerations studied, the two with the largest areas, Moshi and Arusha, already have much lower accessibility by public transport (9% and 34%, respectively) than Mwanza (57%) and Dodoma (67%). Furthermore, accessibility is much lower for those who cannot afford public transport and can opt to only walk: if walking was the only mode available, an average resident in most of these cities would have access fewer than half of the jobs in a 60-minute commute. Similarly, children in households that cannot afford public transport walk long distances to school: only 38% of the population in Moshi can access at least one primary school when walking for 40 minutes at a child’s pace. 16 Dodoma In city centers, road space is allocated mostly to motor vehicles over more sustainable and widely used modes of transport, compromising the efficient use of public space and safety of commuters. On average, 88% of the road space is allocated to motor-lanes and parking, though less than 10% of the population uses private cars. This is inefficient and inequitable. It also sacrifices the safety of pedestrians, who comprise a majority of people, in the interest of traffic. Existing pedestrian paths in city centers do not provide sufficient safety or network completeness. While road space is built for cars, pedestrians have no alternative but to use stretches of unprotected, unmarked road. On average, 0.3 of every 10,000 people in intermediate cities die in traffic collisions and another 0.1 are severely injured. Some cities, such as Mwanza, Mbeya, and Njombe, have a higher rate of fatalities. Motorcycle deaths are also on the rise, currently representing about 20% of road traffic incidents accidents in various cities and as many as 30% to 35% in Tanga and Mbeya. Underinvestment in transport infrastructure is exacerbated by frequent and severe floods. Low provision of NMT infrastructure is coupled with poor quality of the road networks, increasing transport costs and obstructing access to some areas of the cities. In a sample of the 11 biggest urban councils, at most 25% of the local roads are paved and there is significant variation in the quality of unpaved local roads: None of the unpaved roads in Morogoro are in good condition, but 95% of those in Moshi are. In addition, roadways are poorly designed to cope with the rainy season, leading to extreme flooding that destroys available infrastructure, closes footpaths for pedestrians and bicyclists, and creates major disruptions in traffic. Accessibility can be seriously compromised, as people cannot reach jobs and amenities. Daladalas provide a poor user experience, partly due to the lack of route design and the instability of their business model. Daladalas (minibuses), bajajs (rickshaws), and bodabodas (motorcycle taxis) are currently the most effective forms of “public” transport in Tanzania’s intermediate cities. Daladalas, the predominant form of public transport, are uncomfortable, unreliable, unsafe, and insecure, and bus stations are rudimentary, unsafe, and crowded, resulting in a poor experience for the public transport user. Seat supply is fragmented by poor route design or control over the supply, leaving areas of the cities with lower demand unserved while others are oversupplied. The lack of reliable services is hugely damaging to accessibility: a more reliable daladala service would double accessibility to jobs in Moshi. Moreover, the daladala industry faces a fundamental challenge: fares are too low to produce a financially stable business, but too high for most potential users to afford. 17 1.2 On their current trajectory, intermediate cities are opting for inequitable, unproductive car-dependent development Income growth and urbanization are producing a fast shift of transport demand towards motorized modes in Tanzania. As incomes grow, people who have been walking switch to either public or private transport, and those riding public transport switch to motorcycles and automobiles. While cross-country data show that demand for motorized vehicles is associated with an average increase of 9.2% for every 10% increase in GDP per capita, this relationship is at least three times greater in Tanzania. Between 2013 and 2017, the motorization rate increased 11% per year, from 28 to 43 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants, while GDP per capita only increased 3% per year. Letting increased demand for mobility fall to private motorized transport will create an arms race for infrastructure that the government will most likely lose. In addition, intermediate cities in Tanzania are developing at extremely low densities, impeding the development of sustainable mobility systems. While UN Habitat recommends 150 people per hectare (pph) as the density for viable and sustainable communities, median population density is only 21 pph in Tanzanian intermediate cities. Urbanization into sprawl increases the demand for motorized transport and results in fragmented labor markets and polluted and unsafe cities. In turn, private motorized vehicle use reinforces sprawl, induces demand for longer trips, and increases congestion. This cycle of automobile dependence is very difficult to break out of and few cities have, only at very high cost. With high transport costs and low accessibility resulting from the automobile-dependence trap, cities fragment into localized neighborhoods, taking a toll on quality of life and productivity. Estimates in four Tanzanian cities show that worsening congestion could reduce accessibility to jobs by as much as half. Increased traffic congestion reduces access to economic opportunities, spreading business across the city and increasing the costs of accessing a wider pool of jobs and workers. Disconnected cities are also a burden for residents, especially the poorest. As cities grow in size and travel becomes slower and more expensive, the poor are restricted to jobs near their homes, missing opportunities available in labor markets in other parts of the city. Similarly, disconnected cities are likely to have a larger negative effect on women, whose mobility patterns involve more chained trips over shorter distances and who have less money to spend on transport. In short, the costs of car dependency increase dramatically with urban growth, as does the difficulty of transitioning to a more sustainable transport system. It is significantly cheaper and easier to intervene early in this cycle, before significant public and private capital is sunk into private cars and their infrastructure and before there is a major constituency for private car-favoring policy. The costs of car dependency increase dramatically with urban growth, as does the difficulty of transitioning to a more sustainable transport system. 18 2. The Causes of Poor Accessibility The challenges faced by intermediate cities in making their transit systems more inclusive, efficient, safe, and resilient and preparing to respond to the trends of population, income growth, and motorization, have four key causes: i) misaligned strategic vision, ii) unsupportive governance arrangements, iii) inadequate financial resources and infrastructure, and iv) gaps in management and operations. 2.1 Strategic vision Existing targets, priorities, and initiatives are not aligned with long-term sustainable mobility goals. Although the Government identifies sustainable transport and urban density as two targets towards achieving sustainable development, some policies, such as satellite cities, also target physical decentralization of land use. However, international experience shows this is not an effective solution to congestion or an effective approach to manage fast urbanization; instead, it contributes to urban sprawl. Other land policies in Tanzania also promote sprawl. Urban planning standards unintentionally prevent densification, including minimum plot sizes that are among the highest among East African countries. This results in fewer dwelling units per hectare and reduces density. Similarly, although Master Plans call for densification, they also propose that large areas on the outskirts of cities become the locations for residential, commercial, and industrial growth. Policy priorities in the transport sector favor the mobility of private cars over the accessibility of people. Policymakers mistakenly see roads as the only solution to congestion, and neglect their role in driving sprawl and poor urban development. As a result, initiatives overtly prioritize road building and neglect non-motorized and public transport-related infrastructure and interventions. This reinforces motorization trends and neglects the large share of the population that walks to work without access to dedicated infrastructure. Arusha 19 2.2 Governance There is a striking institutional gap in Tanzania around urban transport. Outside of Dar es Salaam, there are no institutions with mandates and capacity dedicated to this sector. Existing institutions such as the Tanzania Rural and Urban Roads Agency (TARURA) and the Tanzania National Roads Agency (TanRoads) are designed around road building and, to a lesser extent, road maintenance. This institutional gap particularly affects public transport which, apart from narrow regulation by Land Transport Regulatory Authority (LATRA), is largely neglected. Governance is highly project oriented, leading to fragmented individual investments rather than a strategic approach to the sector. Outside of Dar es Salaam, there are no institutions with mandates and capacity Decisions around planning and dedicated to urban transport. investment are made far from the ground, across multiple disconnected institutions. The sector is highly centralized, with overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for different levels of government. There is untapped potential for the local level of government to play a key role in transport governance. Most key decisions are taken at the national level, which promotes standardization but can neglect local conditions: intermediate cities have needs distinct from both rural areas and Dar es Salaam. Decision-making can be made more inclusive and transparent, coordination encouraged and institutionalized, regulations better enforced, and capacity aligned behind technical and administrative needs. Decision-making also excludes non- governmental stakeholders. Institutions lack sufficient human resources to effectively govern the sector. Local agencies are understaffed and equipped with too narrow a range of skills to tackle present and future mobility challenges. Outsourcing is expensive and prevents internal skills development, as does the lack of long-range strategic programs. 2.3 Finance Finances for the urban transport sector are constrained and unpredictable, hindering long-term planning and forcing policymakers into extreme trade-offs. Tanzania has strongly institutionalized road maintenance through the Road Fund Board (RFB), but still only half of the maintenance needs in intermediate cities are covered. Budgets are even more constrained outside of the roads sector. There are few sources of urban transport revenue, and almost none of that revenue is in the control of the institutions that depend on it. In-sector sources of revenue—for example, traffic fines and fuel levies—are administered nationally, limiting implementing agencies’ ability to plan or incentivize to expand revenues. In addition, the two major sources of transport sector funding—development partner loans and fuel prices—are unpredictable and difficult to plan for. This lack of predictability is especially damaging to maintenance and operations, which are core mobility functions. Potential new sources of income remain untapped and ways to use existing resources more efficiently have not been explored. Tanzania does not generally collect revenue from user fees, such as tolls or land value capture. Parking fees in particular represent an avenue of great potential. 20 Moshi 2.4 Management and operations Weak traffic controls, Planning mechanisms are inadequate inadequate intersection to guide sustainable urban mobility. design, and unprotected Existing planning tools have little to say about sustainable mobility. paths for NMT users The reliance on Master Plans as the primary planning tool contribute to unsafe roads. exacerbates biases towards developing land rather than improving mobility; where they mention transport, it is in the form of portfolios of proposed investments rather than strategic sector plans. There is room for more granular, short- cities, but there is no inventory or condition assessment of range plans that can engage with operational questions around NMT infrastructure or demand data. Similarly, supply and traffic management. Even where plans exist, the mechanisms demand data for public transport is poor or nonexistent. to translate them into specific programs of implementation or enforceable policy are weak, resulting in low levels of If existing infrastructure is managed much more efficiently compliance to the plan. and effectively, it can expand capacity at relatively low cost. Traffic management does not currently maximize the functional Planners and policymakers lack the necessary data to capacity and performance of the roadway. Too much road space take informed decisions. Without specific, systematic is allocated to the few users who use motorized transport, measurements of the quantity and quality of various transport and too little is allocated to the majority who depend on NMT; modes or demand for transport, cities are forced to guess. within motorized transport users, public transport is also Demand-side data is particularly scarce, resulting in large underserved. Weak traffic controls, inadequate intersection populations being neglected by planners. Lacking data for non- design, and unprotected paths for NMT users contribute to automotive demand, plans tend to overestimate benefits and unsafe roads, and existing safety initiatives have so far been underestimate costs of automobile-oriented infrastructure. ineffective in containing the increasing number and severity of NMT represents nearly half of all trips taken in intermediate accidents. 21 3. A Plan for Sustainable Urban Mobility in Tanzania Tanzania needs a new approach to urban mobility in its intermediate cities. There is a narrow window of opportunity to shift the mobility paradigm and produce a more sustainable urban future. To take advantage of this window of opportunity, Tanzania must adopt a range of interventions aligned around a single, unified strategy. This strategy involves shifting from a car-centric to a more sustainable, people-centric approach. Embracing the following principles of people-centered sustainable mobility1 is a required first step for better transport in intermediate cities in Tanzania: ••Universal access, embracing all modes of travel, population income levels, ages, abilities, and genders, as well as all stages of a trip ••Effectiveness and cost efficiency, ensuring that infrastructure and transport services serve the population equitably, can be properly maintained, and are effectively managed to use space well ••Safety, facilitating sharing of space between all transportation users while minimizing risks to human life ••Resource efficiency and climate resilience, involving low energy and resource use, minimal pollution, and security against climate risk In the new mobility paradigm, accessibility—not road connectivity—is the primary goal. Increasing traffic speeds almost always has a smaller effect on overall accessibility than densification, improved public transport services, and better non-motorized transport infrastructure. Prioritizing people instead of private motorized vehicles will allow mobility policies to more effectively contribute to the targets of sustainable mobility. The solution seldom involves new roads: rather, the roads that exist should be used much more efficiently and effectively. In general, non-motorized transport is better than public transport, public transport is better than private motorized transport, and land use is key to better transport. The use of NMT transport not only reduces the carbon footprint of cities: coupled with land use policies, it also promotes agglomeration economies for thriving businesses and improves access to amenities and jobs at lower monetary and time costs of transportation, for a better quality of life for all. Cities can choose their course of action, but cannot afford to do nothing. This report includes a broad set of recommendations in three categories—No Regrets, Catching Up, and Becoming a Champion—giving cities options to advance in their sustainable mobility agenda according to their levels of ambition and capacity. The report makes recommendations across all four areas in which primary challenges were identified, summarized in Table 1 below. Some concrete suggestions for interventions to implement each recommendation are detailed in Annex A. In addition, recognizing that cities face different mobility challenges, a deep dive of the state of mobility in Mwanza and Dodoma is developed in Annex B. Shifting the strategic vision is key to incorporate the sustainable mobility guiding principles into Tanzanian urban mobility policy. The main objective is to adopt a bold transformative vision for sustainable mobility that is focused on people rather than private motorized vehicles and emphasizes equitable, efficient, inclusive, and cost-effective modes of transport. This vision should be clear and purposeful, and is intended to unite the broadest possible cross-section of government and civil society behind its mission. The guiding principle recommended, based on 22 Table 1 Recommendations for shifting the mobility paradigm 1 Set a new strategic vision for urban transport Becoming A Champion: Catching Up: Institutionalize and prioritize sustainable urban mobility in No Regrets: Formalize sustainable urban all urban transport planning mobility principles within Increase awareness national transport policy and knowledge among policymakers 2 Improve urban Becoming A Champion: transport governance Catching Up: Establish dedicated urban mobility institutions with a No Regrets: Formalize links between high level of internal capacity institutions and create specific Align and coordinate across urban mobility units within existing transport and urban institutions for pipeline of governance institutions urban projects 3 Strengthen urban transport finance Becoming A Champion: Catching Up: Secure and diversify sufficient, predictable revenue for No Regrets: Ring-fence sector resources sustainable urban mobility and target most cost-effective, Improve efficiency of existing people-centered mobility expenditure and revenue interventions collection 4 Improve transport management and operations Becoming A Champion: Catching Up: Anticipate future urban mobility needs and proactively No Regrets: Actively manage infrastructure design infrastructure and and mobility in the city operations accordingly Effectively gather and analyze data to understand urban mobility patterns and needs 23 Arusha experience across the globe, is the “Avoid-Shift-Improve (ASI)” There is potential for major improvement in the management framework: avoiding unnecessary trips, shifting travel demand and operations of existing urban transport systems, to to more sustainable modes of transport, and improving existing lay the groundwork for more ambitious reforms. Routine services, starting with NMT. collection and analysis of demand data will enable much more careful and responsive transport planning, focused on high- Urban transport governance needs to be transparent, impact reforms and investment. The informal transport sector accountable, inclusive, and supported by solid human can be improved, invested in, and eventually formalized to resources and formal coordinating mechanisms; it must also build on its central role in urban transport systems. Similarly, be fit-for-purpose to drive a sustainable transport agenda. an improved approach to road-based transport can be rolled Institutions focused on road building will never meet the out incrementally to support wider objectives, including road major needs of urban areas. Urban transport needs dedicated safety. institutions, policy, and capacity. There also needs to be dedicated mechanisms of coordination between institutions Finally, this report proposes a National Program to support dealing with transport, land use, urban planning, and non- Sustainable Urban Mobility in Tanzania as one option for how transport infrastructure. Within institutions, career technical to structure these interventions. The Government of Tanzania staff with the appropriate awareness, abilities, and experience (GoT) is the only institution able to create the legal, financial, are critical to planning, implementing, and managing mobility and institutional enabling environment for sustainable urban infrastructure. mobility at the local level. This program would involve a comprehensive national sustainable urban mobility policy, A key element of sustainability is financial sustainability: establishment of supportive institutions and funding good transport governance and operations that is reliably mechanisms, and establishment of oversight processes. Then, funded into the future is also less vulnerable to sudden a local Sustainable Urban Mobility Plan (SUMP) would be drawn drops in core funding. Local sources of funding can increase up by each city, and implementation would be undertaken with the resources available for sustainable urban mobility, and also the support and guidance of the national program. make those resources more predictable for planning purposes. User and beneficiary fees for private road-based transport, Tanzania is well-placed to ensure its intermediate cities such as parking charges, can be particularly useful to cross- are ready for their future growth and development. By subsidize more sustainable modes. In general, fees and funding acting quickly and decisively, sustainable urban mobility is sources should be developed not just for their revenue-raising possible. This will ensure Tanzanians have access to better potential, but also for their social and economic effects: job opportunities and amenities, with shorter, safer, and more transport revenue flows should be designed to support the comfortable and environmentally sustainable commutes. overall goals of the policy. 24 Bariadi Geita Mwanza M Shinyanga Arusha Kahama Kasulu Kigoma Tabora Dodoma Iringa Sumbawanga Mbeya Songea 25 Tanzania is well-placed to ensure its intermediate cities are ready for their future growth and development. By acting quickly and decisively, sustainable urban mobility is possible. This will ensure Tanzanians have access to better job opportunities and amenities, with shorter, safer, and more comfortable and environmentally sustainable commutes. Moshi Tanga Morogoro Projected Population 2030 (thousands) Primary Cities Dar-es-Salaam (10,000+) Mainland Intermediate Cities Large (1000 - 5000) Medium (500 -1000) Small (250 - 500) 01 The State and Trends of Mobility Tanzania’s intermediate cities have the potential to play a critical role in the country’s economic development, preserving and enhancing regional economic advantages and providing a high quality of life to all their residents. By harnessing agglomeration economies, cities play a critical role in a country’s economic growth. Dar es Salaam, the main economic hub, hosts one-tenth of the population and accounts for at least 17% of national GDP2. Four Tanzanian cities, Dar es Salaam, Mwanza, Arusha, and Dodoma, are expected to represent 60% of the country’s GDP by 20303. Intermediate cities—17 cities that will have a population between 250,000 and 2 million by 2030, including Mwanza, Dodoma, and Arusha—have the opportunity to also play a key and growing role. With high rates of urban population growth present in the country, intermediate cities can increase their contribution to economic growth and shared prosperity. Intermediate cities can be strengthened as logistical and transport hubs linking the country to its neighbors and the world, and also as agricultural input and output markets to nourish rural development4. Intermediate cities can also open social and cultural spaces that build upon each region’s unique advantages and offer residents diverse ways of living. To accomplish these goals, cities must be attractive to current and potential residents, offer them jobs, and serve them effectively with electricity, water, health, and education. Dodoma 27 Morogoro As a city grows, relying on private, motorized modes of transport, especially private cars, becomes increasingly costly and fuels a cycle of automobile dependence. As a city expands in population and size, so does its need for mobility. Relying on private motorized modes of transport to meet this As a city grows, relying on need comes with large economic, social, and environmental costs. The economic costs are high and include infrastructure private, motorized modes provision and transport service, especially for road of transport, especially maintenance, and decreased access to opportunities, which private cars, becomes undermines the economic and social benefits of urbanization (see Box 1). Social costs include increased transport inequality, increasingly costly: it fuels reduced livability, and high morbidity and mortality due to a cycle of automobile road accidents and pollution-associated health problems. dependence. Environmental costs include air pollution, carbon emissions, and high resource consumption. Furthermore, car dependence promotes extensive low-density urban growth, or sprawl, which in turn increases residents’ dependence on cars. This creates a cycle of automobile dependence. 28 Box 1 Mobility and accessibility Mobility — the ability of people and goods to move between locations — is key to enhancing the productive and social potential of cities as it enables the access of people to jobs, goods, services and amenities. More than half of the world population lives in cities because the demand for spatial proximity, enabled by mobility and density, produces value for people and businesses through agglomeration economies. Agglomeration economies contribute to creating more livable and productive cities by reducing costs, diversifying the goods and services available, and improving access to jobs. In particular, proximity allows workers to reach a larger pool of jobs, potentially with better pay, and allows companies to reach a larger pool of workers, Arusha potentially with a better match of skills to their company. To take full advantage of agglomeration economies, mobility policies must provide accessibility. Accessibility refers to “the ease to reach opportunities (e.g. employment, health or education services), given the spatial distribution of land uses in the city, the transportation infrastructure and services available (transportation supply), the temporal constraints of individuals and activities, and the individual characteristics of people.”i In practice, this means that mobility policies should not focus on increasing speed and links between places or connecting people only to their current job, but rather on easing the access of people to opportunities across the city including job centers, medical care, education, and commerce. Source: Vandycke and Kauppila (2017); Peralta-Quiros and Arias (2018). i Peralta-Quiroz et al., 2018. This cycle of automobile dependence becomes increasingly difficult to break as a city grows; therefore, enhancing sustainable urban mobility at an early stage is key to taking advantage of the benefits of urbanization. Functional urban transport systems enable access to opportunities for all while ensuring efficient use of time and resources and minimizing negative impacts such as pollution, accidents, and noise5. As 12% Total Vehicle the costs of accessing opportunities fall, people can access Fleet Growth from a larger share of jobs, medical care, education, commerce, 2013 - 2018. and more, which then fosters agglomeration economies and increases prosperity6. The international “Sustainable Mobility for All” initiative identifies four main attributes that urban transport systems should aim for: (i) universal access, (ii) effectiveness and cost efficiency, (iii) safety, and (iv) resource efficiency and climate resilience (see Box 2). Sustainable urban mobility, in practice, is achieved with dense, livable cities, non-motorized transport infrastructure, and high-quality public transport systems. Dense, livable cities and NMT infrastructure reduces residents’ need for cars. 29 Box 2 Four attributes of sustainable mobility The Sustainable Mobility for All initiative identifies four main attributes of sustainable mobility: 1 Universal Access Guarantee access to transport that meets everyone’s basic needs, including commuting to work and accessing schools, health centers and commerce, regardless of their income, gender, age, disability status and location of residence. 2 Effectiveness and Cost Efficiency Spend the least possible amount of resources to effectively meet the transport demand by optimizing resources—including energy, technology, space, institutions, and regulations—in the provision of transport systems. 3 Safety Protect lives across all modes of transport, by avoiding fatalities, injuries, and crashes from transport mishaps; thus averting risks to life, social and economic losses, and damage to public health associated with unsafe mobility. 4 Resource Efficiency and Climate Resilience Reduce the impact of transport on climate change, through mitigation, reduce local air and noise pollution, and ensure resilience against climate change risk. Source: Based on Vandycke and Kuappila (2017). Residents who can quickly walk or cycle to work and services can take maximum advantage of urban agglomeration; they are also healthier, happier, and more productive while spending Intermediate cities in less on mobility7. Meanwhile, a high-quality public transport network extends these benefits across a wider area. Density, Tanzania are not yet walkability, and public transport are mutually reinforcing and locked into the cycle of highly complementary, whereas automobile dependence automobile dependence, undermines all three. but as they urbanize Intermediate cities in Tanzania are not yet locked into the it will become more cycle of automobile dependence, but as they urbanize it expensive and difficult to will become more expensive and difficult to create a well- create a well-functioning functioning urban transport system. Intermediate cities benefit from low motorization rates and a small population, urban transport system. which allow high access to opportunities with low impact on the environment. However, urban areas are growing fast and the trajectory of these cities’ development is towards a low- density, underserviced, automobile-dependent future. NMT 30 modes such as cycling have the potential to enable high accessibility to jobs and amenities in intermediate cities, while public transport services are already struggling to provide accessibility in some intermediate cities. Among four cities studied, an average citizen could access between 61% (Moshi) and 96% (Dodoma) of jobs by bicycle if all existing roads were equipped for cycling. However, accessibility to jobs—the share of jobs an average citizen reaches within 60 minutes— using public transport is only 9% in Moshi and 34% in Arusha. Public transport provides better service in Mwanza and Dodoma, where job accessibility is 57% and 68%, respectively. In Dar es Salaam, Tanzania is witnessing the high costs of There is a short window of opportunity investing in sustainable mobility after urban areas have already for intermediate cities to achieve their full expanded. Dar es Salaam is potential by incorporating the lessons learned deep in the cycle of automobile in Dar es Salaam early on. dependency. Low-density urban sprawl makes commuting in Dar es Salaam slow and costly, especially for the poor. One-way trips can take more than 2.5 hours in both private and public transport8, leaving little time for leisure, reducing productivity, and hindering the full potential of agglomeration economies. The average resident in Dar can access only 12.2% of jobs within a 60-minute trip by public transport; from a pool of African cities, this is the second-lowest value after Cape Town9. This disproportionally impacts the poor, who cannot afford to commute by motorized means; households in the bottom quantile of income would need to spend more than 50% of their budget to commute every day to and from work, which is the second-highest share among 11 Sub-Saharan African cities, after Lagos10. Even if they could afford to travel by car, there is no space for more cars. Traffic congestion is severe enough to consume up to 20% of the annual profit of most businesses11. Delaying investment in sustainable urban mobility at an early stage of the urbanization process is ultimately much more expensive. Sprawl erodes the efficiency and cost-effectiveness of public transport investments, which require much larger subsidies as a result. Brownfield development is harder to stimulate for purposes of densification and transport-oriented development. Resettlement costs add to the already high cost of public transport. Once there are major political constituencies for roads and private cars, they are likely to oppose any and all improvement to the urban mobility system. There is a short window of opportunity for intermediate cities to achieve their full potential by incorporating the lessons learned in Dar es Salaam early on. Worsening congestion and corresponding deterioration in accessibility could truly stifle nascent economic growth, social development, and general quality of life, leading these cities on a stunted path they cannot easily return from. Compared to Dar es Salaam, intermediate cities have lower economic concentration and a reduced ability to generate their own resources and human capital, which results in low levels of investment. Paired with current trends of urbanization, urban sprawl, and motorization, policy inaction will leave cities stuck in traffic, with low access to opportunities and an overall loss of potential benefits from economic density. 31 1. The State of Mobility 1.1 Intermediate cities are dominated by non-motorized transport, because it is currently the only option for the poor Sustainable transport modes dominate commuting choices in intermediate cities in Tanzania. Analysis from available Master Plans suggest walking is the dominant transport mode, accounting for between 50% and 70% of trips in most cities surveyed. Cycling, an equally sustainable 50% - 70% alternative, is used by an additional 3% to 8%. In larger cities such as Mwanza and Arusha, public of trips where transportation is the second most-used mode, accounting for 20% and 27% of trips, respectively, walking is while other motorized vehicles account for 8% of trips (see Figure 1). However, in smaller cities, motorcycles are more often used than public transport. Though the data sources may lack the dominant representativeness and vary across cities, they are indicative of the modal split in intermediate transport mode. cities. However, in Tanzanian intermediate cities, many people walk because they cannot afford public transport, not because they choose to do so. Daladala, the cheapest motorized alternative, is still expensive for the poorest households. Households in intermediate cities in Tanzania spend, on average, 5.4% of their total budgets on transportation; however, to cover a daily round- trip in daladala for one person (approximately TZS 900) a household would need to spend an average of 9.7% of its budget. This gap suggests households cannot afford public transport. Figure 1 The majority of citizens in Tanzania’s intermediate cities commute using non- motorized modes of transport 100% 90% Percent of commutes by 80% transport mode 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Mwanza Arusha Sumbawanga Njombe Kibaha Lindi Large Medium Small Small town Private Car Motorcycle Public Transport Cycling Walking Other Source: Latest Master Plan available for each city. 32 Affordability is particularly low for the poorest households, are poor. While this is on par with the experience in other African since their budget is lower and they need to devote a larger cities, the potential exists for dramatic improvement: cycling is share to food. As shown in Figure 2, the 20% poorest used for up to 60% of trips in Chinese cities14. Cycling is not households spend less in transport than other quintiles only an affordable mode of transport, it has also been linked (only 2.8% of the total expenditure) and would need to spend with a healthier life and a reduced risk of diabetes, cancer, 16.7% of their budget to cover a round-trip in a daladala— cardiovascular diseases, and depression, and can reduce almost six times their current transport expenditure. In fact, greenhouse gas emission if used instead of other motorized only the richest 20% of households spend more on transport modes. The climate value of cycling in Stone Town is estimated than what is necessary to cover a two-way daladala trip . 12 at 1,062.4 tons of CO2 per year, or USD$20,994 if traded on the carbon market15. However, international experience Only a very small number of people can afford motorcycles shows that cycling modal share does not grow on its own; it and cars, which together comprise less than 10% of trips. usually requires an integrated strategy including investment in In intermediate cities, 5.6% of the households own a private infrastructure and road safety promotion. vehicle, 0.3% own a bajaj (primarily used for commerce rather than personal use), and 12.4% own a motorcycle. Car ownership drops fast as income declines: 16.9% of the richest 20% of households in intermediate cities own a car, compared to only 4.6% in the second-richest quintile and 0% in the bottom The 20% poorest households quintile. Motorcycles are within reach of a larger share of the would need to spend almost 6 population: 19.1% and 6.1% of households own a motorcycle at times their current transport the top and bottom quintiles, respectively13. expenditure to cover just one As a low-cost high-efficiency mode of medium-distance transport, cycling has enormous unrealized potential in most daily round trip. cities. Less than 10% of trips are taken by bicycle, probably because cycling infrastructure is minimal and road conditions Figure 2 Affordability of transport in intermediate cities is low, especially for the poorest 18% Percent of total household monthly 16% 14% expenditure (mean) 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1 2 3 4 5 20% poorest 20% richest households households Quintiles of expenditure per adult equivalent % of houeshold income spent % of houeshold income on transportation (actual) required for 60 daladala trips Source: Authors’ calculations based on Household Budget Survey 2017-18 (HBS 2017-18). Number for urban areas different from Dar es Salaam. 33 Box 3 Tanzania system of cities: urban areas and urban population Tanzania’s system of cities consists of Dar es Salaam, intermediate cities, and small towns. With almost 7 million inhabitants, today, Dar es Salaam concentrates about 35% of the urban population and is the only Tanzanian city with more than 1 million people. Twelve intermediate cities with a population between 250,000 and 1 million people—including Mwanza, with 883,000 inhabitants, and Arusha and Dodoma with slightly over 500,000 each—concentrate approximately an additional 35%. The rest of the system of cities is comprised of 30 small towns. Though urban population is growing fast countrywide—on average 5.3% per year between the 2002 and 2012 census—the total population in intermediate cities has grown at only 2.8%. If intercensal average growth rates persist, Dar es Salaam will continue to dominate and host more than 10 million people by 2030, and there will be five more intermediate cities (see Figure Box 3.1). Mwanza will be the only large intermediate city with more than 1 million inhabitants, and four cities—Arusha, Dodoma, Mbeya, and Morogoro—will have a medium size (more than 500,000). In fact, the UN World Urbanization Prospects 2018 estimate that the population in the urban agglomerations—areas with a population density larger than 1,500 people per square kilometer—will be higher. By 2030, the agglomeration of Mwanza will host 1.8 million people, followed by the agglomerations of Mbeya (895,000), Arusha (715,000), Morogoro (622,000), and Songea (597,000). Figure Box 3.1. Intermediate cities in Tanzania a) Population 1400 Council population 1200 2002 1000 (‘000) 800 600 2012 400 200 2020 0 (proj.) Iringa Bariadi Shinyanga Moshi Geita Songea Kasulu Sumbawanga Kigoma Tabora Kahama Tanga Morogoro Mbeya Dodoma Arusha Mwanza 2030 (proj.) 250 - 500 thd 500 thd - 1 ml > 1 ml Small Medium Large b) Population Growth Population average 5% annual growth (2002 - 2012) 4% Pop. 3% growth 2% 1% Average 0% pop. growth intermediate Iringa Bariadi Shinyanga Moshi Geita Songea Kasulu Sumbawanga Kigoma Tabora Kahama Tanga Morogoro Mbeya Dodoma Arusha Mwanza cities 250 - 500 thd 500 thd - 1 ml > 1 ml Small Medium Large Source: Authors’ calculations based on National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) Population and Housing Census (PHC) 2002 and 2012. Projections assume constant annual rate equal to the mean intercensal (2002-2012) rate for intermediate cities for mainland Tanzania (2.8% per year). Note about the projections: There are no quantitative thresholds which define intermediate cities in Tanzania, and there is notable variation among them. This study identified 43 administrative areas as cities with the status of town, municipal, and city council. Including Dar es Salaam, these areas hosted 26% of the total mainland population in 2012, latest census data available. However, they geographically overlap with areas with urban population: on average, 89% of the population in these administrative areas is classified as urban, and 19% of population classified as urban does not live in these cities. They also vary widely in their levels of urbanization: 14 councils are fully urbanized, while 6 have less than 60% of urban population. To produce consistent estimates of population living in in cities’ administrative boundaries in 2020 and 2030, we use total populations instead of only urban population living in these administrative boundaries and assume that population grows at the average annual rate of 2.8%. 34 1.2 Accessibility to opportunities deteriorates with sprawl and low affordability of public transport The small populations and areas of intermediate cities favor accessibility. Most of Tanzania’s intermediate cities are still small in population. Mwanza, the second-largest city after Dar es Salaam, is close to 1 million inhabitants, while Arusha, Dodoma, and Mbeya follow with populations between 400,000 and 500,000. Box 3 shows Tanzania’s system of cities. The footprint of intermediate cities is still also relatively small, facilitating access to a high share of jobs and amenities using NMT, such as walking or bicycle, even without NMT-supportive infrastructure. Indeed, if cities had proper infrastructure to serve bicycle users, accessibility by bicycle to jobs and amenities would be above 60% in the four agglomerations studied (i.e., Moshi, Dodoma, Arusha, and Mwanza). Figure 3 shows accessibility to jobs and amenities using different transport modes in these four cities. Box 4 delves into the methodology used to measure accessibility in four intermediate cities. Annex C expands on the methodology and results. However, as cities expand at low density, accessibility to opportunities deteriorates. In compact cities, most residences are close to markets, sources of employment, government services, and social opportunities. However, in Tanzania, as in many African countries, cities expand without density into sprawl, opportunities spread further apart, and it is more expensive to provide functional transit systems and amenities16. Some intermediate cities are already facing this challenge. Accessibility to jobs17 using public transport is low in Moshi (9%) and Arusha (34%), the two agglomerations with the largest areas (see Figure 4). The share of the population that can access amenities, such as schools, health centers, and markets, is also the lowest in these two cities, as the cost of providing amenities that are equitably distributed across space also increases with distance. Congestion is already visible, especially in Mwanza: daladala travelling speed in the four cities where routes were mapped during peak hour is about 20 km/h but can be as low as 4 km/h in Mwanza and 13 km/h in the other cities. Nevertheless public transport provides adequate accessibility to jobs in Mwanza (57%) and Dodoma (67%) (see Figure 3). Figure 3 Accessibility to jobs and amenities a) With proper infrastructure, bicycle use provides very high access to jobs and amenities Accessibility by bicycle to jobs and amenities, by city 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jobs Primary Schools Secondary Schools Health centers Markets Jobs accessed Pop. that Pop. that accesses 1 school within 60 mins accesses 1 school within 40 mins within 40 mins 35 Figure 3 Cont. Accessibility to jobs and amenities b) Walking, given urban form, provides lower accessibility. But to many this is the only affordable mode and is critical for last mile connectivity. Accessibility by foot to jobs and amenities, by city 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jobs Primary Schools Secondary Schools Health centers Markets Jobs accessed Pop. that Pop. that accesses 1 school within 60 mins accesses 1 school within 40 mins within 40 mins c) Accessibility by public transport varies widely across cities Accessibility by public transport to jobs and amenities, by city 100% 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jobs Primary Schools Secondary Schools Health centers Markets Jobs accessed Pop. that Pop. that accesses 1 school within 60 mins accesses 1 school within 40 mins within 40 mins Mwanza Arusha Dodoma Moshi Source: Author’s estimations based on General Transit Feed Specification (GTFS), jobs location from the Statistical Business Registry Survey (SBR) (2014/15), location of primary and secondary schools from the Ministry of Education, Science and Technology (MEST), location of health centers from the Ministry of Health and Social Welfare (MHSW) and markets and road network from OpenStreetMaps. Population distribution from WorldPop (2020, UN-adjusted population projections). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a cycling speed of 12 km per hour and a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. For children who attend primary school, speeds are 10km per hour and 3.5 km per hour for cycling and walking, respectively. 36 Box 4 Measuring accessibility to jobs and amenities in four intermediate cities in Tanzania Measures of the effectiveness of urban transport systems have typically aimed at improving the ability of people to move fast and without obstacles around the city. However, transit systems are seldom a good in themselves: they are useful only for the destinations they make accessible to people. Commonly used “proximity- based” indicators, such as distance to the nearest transit stop, average speed, or the amount of transportation infrastructure, have overlooked the ultimate objective of transit systems: providing access to opportunities*. As a result, urban transport policies have focused on providing more infrastructure for motorized modes, which has fueled the vicious cycle of car dependency: more roads, more cars, more congestion, more roads—ultimately Arusha undermining access to jobs and amenities. Today, it is understood among sustainable transport practitioners that targeting directly accessibility results in better returns to transport investments. Accessibility, not proximity, is a better measure of the ultimate goal of transit systems. Accessibility evaluates the “ability of residents and businesses to access markets, employment opportunities, and service centers such as schools and hospitals”*; it is measured as the number of jobs and amenities (e.g., health centers, schools, markets, and other urban services) that can be reached without a car within a reasonable time (e.g., 30 or 60 minutes)*. The policy interventions derived from using the accessibility indicator do not only rely on providing road infrastructure and usually go hand-in-hand with urban development. Accessibility could be improved by increasing road transport links, but there is a greater chance for improvement by providing complete NMT infrastructure and through land-use policies: densifying and improving land use, and encouraging mixed development, brings people closer to more jobs and amenities. Similarly, building schools and clinics in underserved areas can improve accessibility, as it improves peoples’ access to such services—without necessarily making people more mobile. Measuring accessibility in intermediate cities in Tanzania To characterize transit systems in intermediate cities in Tanzania, accessibility was analyzed in four cities: Mwanza, Arusha, Dodoma, and Moshi. Two distinct accessibility indicators were calculated: •• Accessibility to jobs is estimated as the percentage of jobs accessible within a 60-minute commute for the average citizen using public transport and non-motorized modes. •• Accessibility to amenities (primary and secondary schools, health centers, and markets) is estimated as the percentage of the population that accesses at least one amenity within a 40- or 60-minute commute using public transport and non-motorized modes. This indicator is less commonly used in the literature but captures the fact that people typically only need to access at least one amenity of each type to derive impact on quality of life. For detailed notes on methodology, see Annex C. * Peralta-Quiros, T. (2015). 37 Figure 4 Accessibility to jobs is low in Moshi and Arusha Accessibility to jobs in four agglomerations using public transport Dodoma Population 500,000 Arusha Population 700,000 Av. Accessibility 55% Av. Accessibility 50% Mwanza Population 1,000,000 Moshi Population 300,000 Av. Accessibility 40% Av. Accessibility 52% Accessibility (%) 0.0 - 0.0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Urban district boundaries Daladala routes Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), OpenStreetMaps and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. 38 Dodoma In addition, accessibility is effectively much lower for those who cannot afford public transport. Urban residents who can Figure 5 afford only to walk experience low levels of accessibility. As shown in Figure 3, the share of jobs reached within 60 minutes Modal split for trips to school and the share of the population that can access at least one market by foot is less than 30% and 43%, respectively, for all cities except Dodoma. If walking was the only mode available, 100% almost half of the population would have low probability of finding a well-paid job, and businesses will lose the opportunity to consider applicants that could better match their skills 80% monthly expenditure (mean) requirements. Percent of total household Though accessibility to schools is still at acceptable levels in 60% most cities, children whose households cannot afford public transport need to walk long distances to reach schools. The majority of the population can access a primary or secondary 40% school using public transport in the four surveyed cities, and more than half of the population in Mwanza, Arusha, and 20% Dodoma can access at least one primary school within a 40-minute commute by foot—the most common mode to go to school in urban areas besides Dar es Salaam (Figure 5). While 0% schools are typically distributed roughly by population density Rural Dar es Salaam Urban to shorten scholar commutes, jobs are more typically clustered without relation to residential densities, making travelled distances longer. These acceptable levels of accessibility to schools are expected to have long-lasting positive impacts on livability and productivity, as shorter distances to schools Walking Private Car have been associated with higher attendance, lower drop-out rates, and lower rates of child labor18. However, in some cities, Other Public Transport walking gives access only to a few: only 38% of the population in Moshi can access at least one primary school when walking Bicycle/Tri-cycle/Motorcycle at a child’s pace. This is particularly damaging for households that cannot afford public transport fares. Source: Authors’ calculations based on HBS 2017-18. 39 1.3 Road space is scarce and mostly dedicated to motorized transport, constraining its efficient use Road networks are of poor quality, increasing transport costs and obstructing access to some areas of the cities. Only a small share of roads is paved, although those that are paved tend to be in reasonable condition. Seventy-five percent of paved trunk and regional roads managed by TanRoads and 68% of paved urban roads managed by TARURA are in “good” or “fair” condition. However, in a sample of the 11 biggest urban councils, at most 25% of the local roads are paved and there is significant variation in the quality of unpaved local roads: 0% of unpaved roads in Morogoro but 95% in Moshi are in good condition (Figure 6). This represents significant underinvestment in transport infrastructure. Non-motorized transport users have poor experiences with transit systems: there is limited dedicated infrastructure to serve them, and they are marginalized in the design and operation of shared infrastructure. Infrastructure for pedestrians is limited. A typical walking trip follows a series of dirt paths and unpaved roads to get to a paved road, then along the side of that road to the destination. Most trunk roads provide only narrow paved shoulders with little if any effective barrier between these areas and vehicular travel lanes, making them highly unsafe to use19. Lack of adequate roadside stormwater drainage means these unpaved road shoulders are often flooded, making walking difficult, unpleasant, and sometimes impossible. Some cities, such as Dodoma and Iringa, are introducing NMT infrastructure in new roads, but there is still limited connectivity of this infrastructure from commercial areas to residential neighborhoods (see Box 5). In city centers, road space is allocated mostly to motor vehicles over more sustainable and widely used modes of transport. Though about half of the population travels by foot in Tanzanian cities, most of the road space is devoted to motorized vehicles. On average, 81% of the road space is allocated to motor-lanes and an additional 7% is allocated to on-street parking; whereas less than 10% of the population uses private cars (see Figure 7 for summary results and Box 6 for methodology details on measuring road allocation)20. Though there is no benchmark of an ideal road space allocation, the share of road space allocated to motor-lanes in Tanzanian intermediate cities’ city centers is high compared to cities with a higher motorization rate, where less than 50% Arusha 40 Figure 6 Type and quality of roads managed by TARURA in 11 cities a) Paved roads are a small share of the total in all cities Proportion of road by surface type, by city 100% 80% Percentage of Total Roads 60% 40% 20% 0% Mwanza Dodoma Arusha Moshi Songea Sumbawanga Kigoma Tabora Tanga Morogoro Mbeya Paved Gravel Earth b) The condition of roads varies across cities Condition of roads, by surface type and city 100% 80% Percentage of roads in good and fair quality 60% 40% 20% 0% Moshi Songea Sumbawanga Kigoma Tabora Morogoro Mbeya Dodoma Arusha Arusha Tanga Paved Unpaved Source: TARURA (June 2019). Cities ordered by population size. 41 of road space is dedicated to motor-lanes21. A more efficient distribution would dedicate more of the scarce road space to the most space-efficient modes of transport: public transport, walking, and cycling. These are also the modes used by most residents in Tanzania’s intermediate cities, who are currently allocated a small minority share of road space. In addition, though road space is necessary for the transportation of goods, freight transport can benefit from making more road space available for freight, in lieu of private cars and reducing unnecessary travel (see Box 7). Existing pedestrian paths in city centers do not provide sufficient safety or network completeness. Existing sidewalks in the central area are often narrow and crowded; sidewalk users including pedestrians and street vendors are forced to compete for very limited space. Between 55% and 75% of downtown blocks in intermediate cities either do not have sidewalks or have sidewalks that are less than three feet wide22, and 13% to 28% of pedestrians have to compete with street vendors for space. There are few formally marked pedestrian crossings and those that exist are merely painted pavement, without devices to stop motor vehicle traffic23. Without regular arrangements of such facilities, road networks in central areas do not provide any consistent level of protection to people trying to cross busy streets that carry traffic mostly unbroken by intersection stoppages. As congestion worsens, pedestrians will face a greater number of vehicles on streets, making their trips less safe, whether walking along the side of roads or trying to cross them. Valuable public space in central areas is allocated to parking, which has low social returns on investment and benefits comparatively few road users. Significant space in downtown areas is already taken up by on-street parking. The digitalization analysis shows that in cities such as Moshi and Arusha, on-street parking can take up 10% to 15% of the road space. Moreover, between 52% and 70% of blocks surveyed in the city centers of Mwanza and Dodoma are taken up by parking activities, and between 83% and 90% of available parking spaces are used24. In addition to occupying scarce physical space, parking affects the functionality of motor-lanes, as traffic flow is impeded by vehicles entering and leaving travel lanes from the roadside or vehicle searching for spaces. Demand for parking increases with private vehicle use and will quickly overwhelm any available supply that is constrained by physical space. As the demand for downtown parking increases, so does the need for the development and execution of an effective parking management strategy (see Box 8). Box 5 Non-motorized transport networks NMT infrastructure, like other transport infrastructure, must be thought of like a network. Investment in links achieves significant return collectively rather than individually. This happens only if enough links, whether they be sidewalks/ crosswalks for pedestrians or bicycle lanes/paths for cyclists, can be built and connected to each other so that they form a well-placed network providing complete and convenient access between important origins and destinations. Putting together an effective network requires data on the origins and destinations of potential users, as well as a commitment to build and maintain a critical mass of infrastructure that is coordinated in its design and capacity. Pieces of infrastructure have little value in isolation from each other, since they don’t present a viable means of traveling from where people are to where they need to go. For example, the newly constructed pedestrian promenade at the Mzingani Sea Wall in Stone Town is an excellent example of fully articulated NMT infrastructure, replacing disjointed sidewalks interrupted by parked cars. By comparison, Mwanza’s waterfront suffers from disjointed walkways, impeding its value for pedestrians. 42 Box 6 Road allocation in city centers using satellite imagery Assessing which modes of transport are being favored by Tanzanian intermediate cities can provide tools to understand how infrastructure serves the current and shapes future transport demand. This study measured the distribution of road space allocated to different transport modes using Maxar satellite images at a 30cm pansharpened resolution, with 8-bands (WV3) and 4-bands (WV4) from six cities (Mwanza, Dodoma, Arusha, Morogoro, Moshi and Tabora). It then manually classified road infrastructure by transport mode that it was planned for and estimated the area allocated to each mode and its distribution. The study focused on city centers, as defined by each city’s Master Plan, because they concentrate most of the economic activity in the city and are typically higher in density. Figure Box 6.1. Classification of road space in Mwanza’s city center Source: Digitalization using Maxar satellite images at a 30cm pan-sharpened resolution. 43 Box 7 Freight infrastructure There is no definitive answer to the question of the most efficient infrastructure for the purposes of freight. It is not necessarily the case that large trucks need access to all parts of the city; this can be the result of an oversupply of roads, effectively subsidizing unnecessary long round-trips by the largest freight vehicles. More constrained road supply can result in freight operators breaking their shipments into smaller consignments for shorter point-to-point deliveries in smaller vehicles. Active management of roads for freight purposes, either by limiting access to large trucks or limiting other traffic but permitting trucks, allows for even more nuanced control. The appropriate supply of road space for freight purposes and management of that space are matters for study and planning in each city. There is no one-size-fits-all policy. Mwanza Figure 7 Non-motorized transport users have little dedicated infrastructure Allocation of road space in the CBD by type and user, by city 100% 80% Percent of road space in CBD 60% 40% 20% 0% Moshi Tabora Morogoro Dodoma Tanga Mwanza Moshi Tabora Morogoro Dodoma Arusha Mwanza Motorized transport infrastructure Sidewalks Motor-lanes On-street Parking % of commuters using MT % of commuters using MT+ PT % of commuters using NMT Source: : Author’s estimations using Maxar satellite images at a 30cm pan-sharpened resolution. Note: We assume an average city has the following modal distribution: NMT 60%, Daladala 30%, motorcycle 6%, and private car 4%. 44 Box 8 Parking management Mwanza There is no one-size-fits-all parking policy: it must reflect the needs of the city in question. However, there are some generally applicable principles and observations: • Parking policy must support the broader transport, mobility, and accessibility policy. The purpose of parking policy is not to meet demand for parking, but to manage scarce urban space for broader objectives. • The opportunity cost of parking supply is much greater than its direct costs; as such it is likely to be oversupplied. This opportunity cost primarily represents the other, more socially beneficial purposes for which the space may be used. Parking takes up prime public space that could otherwise be used for NMT infrastructure, small-scale commerce such as street vendors, green space, or even (in the case of structured off-street parking) intensive residential, commercial, or industrial land use. • Constraining parking supply is a comparatively cheap and easy way to reduce the desirability of driving for travel demand management and promote modal shift. Reduced supply of parking around a desirable destination, such as an economic hub, can discourage unnecessary trips or encourage travelers who are able to switch to other modes of transport. Replacing a row of parking spots with a sidewalk or bicycle lane effectively can be a highly progressive non-financial tax on the mobility of the comparatively wealthy and a subsidy to the mobility of the poor. • Parking is politically easier to build than to remove. Even when the “optimal” level of parking is uncertain, it may be advisable to err on the side of scarce parking supply. • Active parking management allows for better use of urban space. A driver that parks in a free on-street spot is occupying valuable and scarce urban land, rent-free, that may be more efficiently used by someone or something else. Setting and enforcing even a low price on parking is better than nothing, as it discourages inefficient or poor use of the space in favor; getting the price right can maximize the efficiency of space and generate revenue for other purposes; and setting time limits and other constraints can encourage different uses of parking for socially beneficial purposes. Active parking management, based on careful study of demand, is an essential part of the transport policy toolkit. 45 1.4 Public transport is not living up to Box 9 its potential Public transport users perceive a poor experience when Poor user experience on daladalas commuting in daladalas, the predominant form of public transport in intermediate cities. Riders are not satisfied Daladala drivers typically rent their vehicle from an with the service. The average passenger in four intermediate owner, who may own several vehicles, for a fixed daily cities surveyed (Mwanza, Dodoma, Arusha, and Moshi) is fee. This fee, which is high relative to a typical day’s dissatisfied with the transport options available from their fares, produces driver behavior intended to maximize place of residence, the conditions of the bus, and the safety earnings, often at the expense of riders. Many of these regarding other passengers on the bus. When asked about behaviors are designed to increase rider turnover and their satisfaction with the service, about 45% of passengers reduce kilometers driven with few passengers: identified crowdedness as the characteristic they disliked •• Speeding and other forms of dangerous driving the most from their daladala rides. Long waiting times were are common in order to complete a route as also identified as a source of dissatisfaction by 43% of the quickly as possible. respondents in Moshi and 18% in Arusha. Speed, security, and •• Drivers frequently truncate runs before safety were minor concerns in the four cities25. reaching the destination if there are not enough new passengers boarding. Daladalas are uncomfortable, unreliable, unsafe, and •• Drivers compete fiercely for passengers on insecure. The fleet is mostly small buses that get crowded busy routes during peak hours but avoid during peak hours, making the users’ experience uncomfortable. operating during off-peak periods or on routes The service is unsafe with imprudent, aggressive driving and with less passenger traffic. lack of enforcement of vehicle safety standards. Crowded •• Daladalas are frequently overloaded, either by conditions create opportunities for pickpocketing and reconfiguring the seating or simply taking more harassment. The frequency and hours of operation lack passengers than can be safely seated. standardization and are constrained by profitability, hindering •• Drivers park two- and three-deep at bus users from managing their time and hampering accessibility. stops and delay their departure until enough Estimations show that accessibility to jobs and amenities passengers board to make the run most could substantially increase if services were more reliable. In profitable. Moshi, accessibility to jobs and markets would almost double, •• Schoolchildren in uniform are entitled to a reaching 17% and 26%, respectively (see Figure 8). concessionary fare, but not a subsidy, and are frequently denied boarding as a result. Seat supply is atomized and uncoordinated. Routes are designed based on operator or community requests, and Source: Carlson-Kanyama (2004); Mfinanga and Madinda typically are chosen only to maximize operator profits. (2016); Hassan et al. (2017); Rizzo (2017). Licenses are approved by LATRA without a planning process that considers overall demand and existing supply of the routesi. As a result, areas of the city with lower demand are left unserved while others are oversupplied. Overserviced routes result in aggressive competition between drivers and associated poor driving—cutting off competitors at bus stops, overloading buses, and overstaying at bus stops to obtain more passengers. There is no planned or designed integration between routes, services, or modes. Long distances between bus stops, combined with poor enforcement, induce a stop-anywhere behavior. This translates into more accidents and more congestion. Access and egress from daladala services is an important part of the public transport trip. Official bus stop locations are placed 1-2 km from each other on roads managed by TanRoads26, forcing passengers to walk long distances on busy trunk roads which Dodoma i LATRA regional offices behave differently. In Dodoma, route licenses are approved if the paperwork requirements are complete. In Mwanza, there is an effort to restrict oversupply by having a quota per route. 46 Figure 8 Public transport accessibility to jobs in the agglomeration of Moshi would almost double if service reliability improved a) Current accessibility by public transport in Moshi b) Accessibility by public transport in Moshi with improved reliability Accessibility (%) 0.0 - 0.0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Urban district boundaries Daladala routes Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), OpenStreetMaps and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. 47 offer them little space or protection, adding time and personal risk to their trip or fostering competition on the road for passengers—particularly in the centers—with the associated nuisances. Route trajectories and vehicle frequencies are not designed to match passenger demand and therefore do not minimize the travel times of their overall trips. Rudimentary bus stations are unsafe and crowded, adding operational costs, dangers, and inconvenience to the public transport system. The characteristics of large central bus stations affect most trips taken by public transport, as well as operating costs for providers. Unpaved floors restrict access during the rainy season and the lack of lighting reduces nighttime security and safety. In addition, bus routes are not posted to guide users to quickly find the services they desire. Crowding and lack of standardized protocols to exit the facilities result in buses taking up to an additional 5-10 minutes to leave the facility from the time they have fully boarded and begin moving27. Poor surfaces and lost time at these facilities increase costs to public transport operators by increasing vehicle wear and tear and decreasing the number of routes that an operator can run per day. They also fail to serve the needs of riders. A number of structural factors in the daladala industry lead to poor user experiences and social outcomes. Profits are captured by vehicle owners while costs are largely passed to drivers, leading to low effective driver wages and intense competition for passengers. There is little investment in vehicle maintenance or improvement, possibly due to uncertain profits. Box 9 gives further detail on how user experience is made poorer by oversupply-linked driver behavior. The daladala fare is too low to produce a financially stable business, but too high for most potential users to afford. One-way fares are low by regional standards, averaging USD$0.17ii compared to $0.54 in Uganda, $0.79 in Kenya, and $0.27 in Rwanda28. However, this price is high relative to income levels of most potential passengers, who as a result choose to walk or simply not travel. Setting public transport fares at the appropriate level for both users and operators has been challenging around the world, leading to the use of transport subsidies (see Box 10). Rickshaws (bajajs) and moto-taxis (bodabodas) provide vital feeder services to supplement trunk routes. These modes provide a cheaper alternative to travel routes where higher-capacity bus services are either not economically viable or physically impassable due to narrow or poor- quality roads. They primarily provide three types of short-distance services: (i) within the main urban areas, where they compete with conventional taxis; (ii) as feeder services to urban areas that are unattractive to taxis due to the low density of demand or the poor condition of the route; and (iii) as feeders to the main roads, complementing taxi and large-capacity bus services. In many areas, they are run either by micro or household enterprises and tend to be in the informal sector, or by loosely organized operator associations. Nonetheless, their functions are complementary to the formal transport sector and they meet an important demand for urban transport. Due to their limited capacity of three to six passengers, using a bajaj costs approximately TZS 1 000 per kilometer—two to seven times more expensive than a daladala, but less than half the cost of a taxi. Daladalas, bajajs, and bodabodas are currently the most effective forms of “public” transport in Tanzania’s intermediate cities. They serve a significant portion of the population at little direct financial cost to the government. Although they each have significant social costs, inefficiencies, and operating problems, they fill an important gap in transport provision for which there is presently no good alternative. Governments elsewhere are increasingly trying to incorporate informal operators as part of the solution to urban transport, rather than treating them as part of the problem. ii Daladala fares in Tanzania change with distance. From 0 to 10 km, a one-way trip costs TZS 400 (about USD$0.17). Beyond 10 km, fare rises by TZS 50 for every additional 5 kms up to 20kms. The fare is TZS 600 for routes between 21 and 25 kms, and TZS 700 for routes between 26 and 30 kms. 48 Box 10 Social fares and technical fares The social fare is the price charged to the user for a Figure Box 10.1. Revenue shortfall without given trip, often just called the “fare.” It is set by a operating subsidy, before and after fuel technical or political process that takes into account price increase what riders and potential riders can afford to pay, Illustration of relationship between technical fare, social the broader objectives of the fare policy, and other fare, and operating subsidy. considerations. The technical fare is the actual cost of running the 480 service. It is calculated per seat for a given trip. This 470 cost is determined through a technical process based on the various input costs faced by the operator, 460 including capital, labor, maintenance, fuel and other consumables, as well as expected profit. It implicitly 450 includes costs imposed by inefficiencies such as “dead kilometers” in which vehicles run empty, time spent 440 boarding and alighting, and so on. 430 The gap between the social fare and the technical Costs (TZS) 420 fare is the subsidy. It is common for the technical fare to be greater than the social fare. It is even more 410 common in poorer countries, where riders’ capacity to pay is low. This limits the social fare to a low level, but 400 has no effect on the technical fare, which still reflects underlying costs. The gap between the social fare— 390 which might be set based on riders’ ability to pay—and 380 technical fare represents a financial shortfall for the operator on every trip. For operations to continue, that 370 shortfall has to be covered by a subsidy. Figure Box 10.1. illustrates these relationships. 360 Social fare Technical fare Technical fair In the likely event that the social fare is set lower than (ticket price) (cost to run after fue price the technical fare, an operating subsidy is required. service) increase This may be because the social fare cannot increase for political or social reasons: for example, to make the Social fare Shortfall service more affordable for the poor. In this case, the (ticket price) (or subsidy) operator requires an operating subsidy to continue providing the service. All shortfalls represent a subsidy. Sometimes there appears to be a subsidy-free service, where the social fare or ticket price is set lower than the technical fare or actual operating costs. In this case, there is still a subsidy—it is just hidden from view. If the shortfall is insufficient to pay for vehicle maintenance, then the hidden subsidy is paid from the operator’s capital, in the form of accelerated depreciation. This reduces or eliminates operator profits, making the service financially unsustainable. If the shortfall is insufficient to pay drivers a living wage, then they are paying the hidden subsidy—and they will likely try reclaim it by dangerous driving and cutting corners. Both under-maintained vehicles and exploited drivers result in higher accident rates, which means the hidden subsidy is also paid by the victims of crashes, their families, and the healthcare system. Even roads represent a hidden subsidy to drivers, since they pay a small portion of the cost of the road space that they require. All shortfalls are subsidized by someone in the system. 49 1.5 Road safety is a very serious concern in Tanzania Road safety is a major problem with huge social and economic costs for the country. The World Health Organization (WHO) estimates there are 29.2 road traffic fatalities per 100,000 inhabitants in the country, placing Tanzania 20th globally for road fatalities29. The economic losses from traffic fatalities are estimated to be almost USD$5 billion in 2016, or 10% of GDP30. Economically active age groups suffer 57% of road crashes, fatalities, and injuries. These statistics most likely do not tell the full story. While the official total number of accidents in Tanzania was 3,256 in 2016, the WHO estimates that the true figure was five times higher31. Poor road safety severely affects residents and motorcycle users within intermediate cities. On average, 0.3 of every 10,000 people in intermediate cities die in traffic accidents and another 0.1 are severely injured. Some cities, such as Mwanza, Mbeya, and Njombe, have a higher density of fatalities (Figure 9). Motorcycle deaths are also on the rise, representing about 20% of road traffic incident accidents in various cities, and as many as 30% to 35% in Tanga and Mbeya (Figure 10). Pedestrians are also likely to be heavily impacted by road traffic accidents. The WHO reports that almost half of the people dying in road traffic accidents around the world are vulnerable road users—pedestrians, cyclists, and motorized two- and three-wheeler users32. Although there is no data available for Tanzania, this figure is expected to be similar since many people walk but there are few protected walking paths and road safety measures. Figure 9 Mbeya and Njombe have very high rates of accidents causing injury or death Fatal and injuries accidents, by city 3 Incidents per 10,000 people 2 1 0 Nzega Korogwe Morogoro Tarime Lindi Newala Masasi Babati Makambako Mpanda Bunda Bukoba Mbinga Njombe Singida Bariadi Shinyanga Moshi Geita Songea Sumbawanga Kigoma Tabora Kahama Tanga Mbeya Dodoma Arusha Mwanza Small towns Small Medium Large Fatalities Severely Mean fatalities Mean fatalities + injured severely injured Source: Road Accident Information System (RAIS) 2017. 50 1.6 High flooding risk and poor Figure 10 infrastructure consume scarce resources dedicated to mobility Motorcycle accidents are a high High cumulative rain and poor drainage infrastructure share of total accidents exacerbate the impacts of floods in Tanzania. Tanzanian cities are vulnerable to intense bursts of rainfall during the rainy Share of total road accidents involving motorcycles season, which overwhelms inadequate drainage infrastructure and causes flash floods. Coastal cities and cities with river 40% valleys, such as Arusha, Mbeya, and Mwanza, are more prone to flash floods with widespread loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure33. Other cities, as Tanga and Zanzibar Town, also have high risk of pluvial (rain-related) 30% floods . This has been exacerbated by inadequately-designed 34 and -maintained roadway drainage facilities35: 40% of roads in intermediate cities lack good drainage36. Heavier and more 20% frequent rains are expected with climate change, increasing intermediate cities’ vulnerability. As a result of flooding and inadequate infrastructure, roads 10% do not reliably serve any mode of transport. In addition to their other effects, floods can close footpaths for pedestrians and bicyclists and create major disruptions in traffic. Accessibility can be seriously compromised as people cannot reach jobs and 0% amenities. Although we lack comparable data from Tanzania, Dar es Salaam Zanzibar (Mjini Magharibi) Dodoma Mwanza Arusha Tanga Mbeya floods can cause one-third of locations in Kampala to lose access to hospitals within 60 minutes, which is the period of time within which medical intervention is most effective at saving lives37. In four Tanzanian intermediate cities, most daladala passengers report that their commute takes 10-30 minutes Source: National Police and NBS, 2017. longer during rainy season, even without severe flooding38. Note: Figures by National Police regions. Mwanza 51 2. Megatrends and Expected Effects: A small window of opportunity to act Without effective intervention—that is, a “do-nothing” scenario—the shortcomings of current urban transport systems will soon constrain growing cities’ productivity and livability. The sustainability of urban mobility in intermediate cities is affected by three mega-trends: rapid urbanization, which increases demand for trips; income growth, which will likely produce a shift to private motorized vehicles under current policy conditions; and urban sprawl, which increases the length and cost of trips and demand for motorized vehicles. Together they are likely to fuel a vicious cycle under a do-nothing scenario (see Figure 11). As cities develop with low densities, the problems and inadequacies of their mobility systems will compound and eventually overtake their advantages. De-concentration of activities demand longer and more dispersed trips that will be more difficult to serve with existing infrastructure and services. As trips get longer, people can no longer walk or cycle, increasing the demand for motor vehicles. Public transport will also become more crowded as demand increases and less attractive for riders due to crowding and road congestion. This will exacerbate the modal shift to private vehicles. The result will be more congestion, pollution, and accidents39, and more expensive trips that reduce access to opportunities reducing the city’s productivity and livability. As congestion grows in the city center and throughout the city, development is pushed to the periphery, intensifying urban sprawl and fueling the vicious cycle. Figure 11 Vicious cycle of urban sprawl, motorization and congestion Poor public transport service More congestion, Longer Roads pollution and accidents Lower speeds Lost fares Less frequent More travel supplies to reach jobs, goods and services High Dependence on More Urban Sprawl Motorized Vehicles Vicious cycle of automobile-dependence Less Less Social Productivity Inclusion The impacts of this vicious cycle Source: Modified from Herce (2009). 52 2.1 Rapid urbanization and income growth are increasing demand for urban transportation and shifting it to motorized modes. Urban population in Tanzania is growing fast, putting pressure on current urban transport systems. By 2050, more than half of Tanzanians will be living in urban areas40; cities will be hosting more than three times the current urban population. In the next 10 years, there will be one city with more than 1 million inhabitants and four with more than 500,000. The resulting surge in transport demand will happen quickly, as urban population is growing on average 5.3% per year, the third-fastest rate in Sub-Saharan African (after Burundi and Uganda)41. Current transport infrastructure is inadequate; urbanization will put enormous pressure on current urban transport systems, deteriorating the relatively high accessibility and mild congestion that intermediate cities enjoy today. Income levels are rising and poverty is falling, further increasing the demand for mobility. With a GNI per capita of USD$1,080, Tanzania became a middle-income country in 2020. Between 2007 and 2018, average GDP per capita grew slowly but constantly at 3.1%42 per year, and poverty fell from 34.4% to 26.4%43. Urban areas outside of Dar es Salaam contributed to this trend with poverty falling to 19% in 201844. Though Tanzania is not immune to the global crises caused by the spread of Covid-19, annual GDP growth is expected to return to its pre-pandemic rate of 5% to 6% in 2021 and 202245. Income growth and urbanization are producing a fast shift in transport demand towards motorized modes in Tanzania. As incomes grow, people are likely to increase their expenditure on transport46, shifting to faster modes. Pedestrians switch to either public or private transport, and those riding public transport switch to motorcycles and automobiles. This transition is likely to happen faster in Tanzania than is typical. While cross-country data show that demand for motorized vehicles is associated with an average increase of 9.2% for every 10% increase in GDP per capita, this relationship is at least three times stronger in Tanzania. Between 2013 and 2017, the motorization rate increased 11% per year, from 28 to 43 vehicles per 1,000 inhabitants, while GDP per capita only increased 3% per year (Figure 12). Arusha 53 Figure 12 Tanzania has a strong relationship between economic growth and car ownership Growth in GDP per capita, and vehicle ownership, Tanzania and by region. 6,000 !###" East Asia & Pacific Vehicles per 1,000 people Europe & %&'()*&+",&-"./###",&0,*&" !##" Central Asia 600 Latin America & Caribbean all Middle East !#" & North Africa 60 Sub-Saharan Africa Tanzania !" $##" $###" $####" Tanzania (2035) 123",&-")4,(54"6333"7#.8"9:2;" 6 Cross-country 500 <4+5"=+(4">"34)(?()" 5,000 <@-0,&">"A&B5-4*"=+(4" C45(B"=D&-()4">"A4-(EE&4B" 50,0000 F(GG*&"<4+5">"H0-5'"=?-()4" :@EI:4'4-4B"=?-()4" J4BK4B(4"67#L$;" J4BK4B(4" 30M&-"64**;" trend GDP per capita (PPP 2017 USD) Source: World Development Indicators. Note: axis spacing is logarithmic. Though rapid motorization is currently concentrated in Dar es Salaam, intermediate cities are likely to follow this pattern. Vehicle registration increased 8% between 1993 and 2013 in While cross-country data show Dar es Salaam and 2% in other cities47. A study by the Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) estimated that a 1% that demand for motorized increase in the population will increase the number of private vehicles is associated with an vehicles by 58%, buses by 6%, and goods vehicles by 18% in average increase of 9.2% for every Dar es Salaam48. The motorization rate has risen due to lower prices, ease of financing, and increased supply of cars and 10% increase in GDP per capita, particularly motorcycles, but has been limited by slow personal this relationship is at least three income growth. It is likely to accelerate as incomes rise. times stronger in Tanzania. Motorcycle use is rising as a mode that is more affordable than private cars and more convenient than buses. Motorcycles already account for 57% of the vehicles in the country, and their acquisition has been growing on average 18% per year— Letting increased demand for mobility fall to private motorized faster than other types of vehicle . Other cities in Africa have 49 transport will create an arms race that the government will seen increases in the use of motorcycles to cope with the most likely lose. Cars and motorcycles impose a direct financial declining quality of public transport services. Between 1995 cost on the government in the form of demand for roads and an and 2007, commercial motorcycles registration grew 19% per indirect financial cost to health services and elsewhere. Roads year in Kampala and 20% in Lagos after the collapse of their bus are a form of subsidy for private transport, so meeting this transport services50. Motorcycles are subject to many of the increased demand will induce yet greater demand for cars and same problems of congestion, resource use, and social costs motorcycles. Once a city is car-dependent, there is no quantity as automobiles. of roads that can be built to meet demand. 54 2.2 Urban sprawl and high motorization reinforce one another Intermediate cities in Tanzania are developing at extremely low densities, impeding the development of sustainable mobility systems. Tanzanian intermediate cities exhibit a median gross population density of around 21 pph, strikingly lower than the UN Habitat-recommended 150 pph for viable and sustainable communities51. Low densities are expected to persist. The urban footprint in Arusha, Dodoma, and Kigoma has grown steadily since 2000, at an average rate of 4-5% per year, while their population has increased at a lower pace, on average 2.4-4% per year52. There has been rampant development in peripheral areas as urban sprawl occurs, in part due to the affordability of larger tracts of land. Urbanization into sprawl increases the demand for motorized transport and results in fragmented labor markets and polluted, unsafe cities. As jobs, communities, and amenities are spread further apart, people need to travel longer distances that can only be covered by Once urban residents own private cars, they motorized vehicles. Reduced resist shifting back to more sustainable and concentration resulting from low densities makes public efficient modes of transport. transport financially unviable, increasing dependence on private vehicles. Access to jobs and amenities deteriorates, especially for lower-income households who cannot afford to own cars. As accessibility is compromised, labor markets fragment, destroying the agglomeration economies that make cities productive. A higher volume of cars on streets also increases accidents and pollution, deteriorating the health and quality of life of residents. In turn, private motorized vehicle use reinforces sprawl, induces demand for longer trips, and increases congestion. High rates of motorization enable development further and further from existing economic nodes, and results in more trips being taken by private transport as opposed to other modes. Given the low marginal cost of making an additional trip by vehicle, as well as the great convenience of its availability, private car owners are more likely to take more and longer trips. In the US, car ownership has been found to increase commuting distance by 50%53. A greater number of private vehicles taking up roadway infrastructure capacity will lead to even more private vehicle usage. Increasing levels of congestion will reduce road-based public transport speeds. This starts a feedback loop where lower speed causes poorer trip quality, leading to even greater loss of riders to private vehicle modes and consequently higher levels of traffic congestion. Lower commercial speeds of daladala operations translate into fewer runs, fewer passengers, and lower fare revenue for each driver, exacerbating the problems of the daladala business model and likely worsening driver behavior. However, it will be more difficult to pursue an increase in fares as the quality of the service falls: for users the service will be less frequent and unreliable, with longer waiting and travelling times. Likewise, poor daladala services can push commuters to choose to use less efficient and more expensive transport modes such as bodabodas or bajajs. This cycle of automobile dependence is very difficult to break—few cities have, and only at very high cost. Once urban residents own private cars, they resist shifting back to more sustainable and efficient modes of transport, and tend to form highly motivated and vocal constituencies for car-promoting policies. A population living on the low-density urban periphery and traveling primarily by private car will be a major and stubborn barrier to future improvements in transport, land use, and urban development more broadly. 55 2.3 As the demand for transport mobility demandiii. In European cities, a car with, on average, infrastructure overtakes supply, 1.5 passengers produces 104 grams of carbon dioxide per traffic congestion will rapidly kilometer, equivalent to 1.52 times the emissions of a bus increase, and accessibility will with 12.7 passengers, and 1.44 times a motorcycle with 1.2 deteriorate passengers56. The car is, in other words, the most carbon- emitting mode of all. On its current path, Tanzania will experience rapidly accelerating motorization. If the GDP per capita keeps growing Though traffic congestion is not yet a problem in Tanzanian at 3.1% per year and Tanzania follows international trends, intermediate cities, motorization and low infrastructure the motorization rate could reach 77 people per thousand provision will produce gridlock by 2035. As the supply of and inhabitants country-wide in the next 15 years. In intermediate demand for roads in intermediate cities approaches a volume- cities, at least 60% of trips are expected to use motorized to-capacity (V/C) threshold of 70%, traffic congestion quickly transport modes, compared to 40% today54. iii Mobility demand, measured as number of visits to different types of places registered in Google Maps, fell between February and July and returned to its January 2020 values during August and September. NO2 levels, Motorization will exacerbate traffic congestion and pollution. measured using Google Earth L3 composite data derived from the Sentinel 5-Precursor satellite, followed this pattern, showing a strong link between Though necessary to travel longer distances, motorized motorized transport use and pollution even when motorization rates are low (Google LLC Google COVID-19 Community Mobility Reports, January 2021). vehicles are costly to society: they make less efficient use of road space, pollute more, and are more likely to cause fatal accidents than the alternatives. While a standard 3.5m-wide traffic lane can carry 2,000 people per hour by car, it can carry 9,000 by regular bus, 14,000 by bicycle, and 19,000 by foot55 (see Figure 13). Similarly, while walking or cycling produce no pollution, cars are a major contributor to poor air quality. In Tanzania, recent evidence suggests that nitrogen dioxide The car is the most carbon- (NO2) concentrations, a harmful pollutant, follow changes in emitting mode of all. Figure 13 Private motorized transport modes have a high impact on road space Throughput capacity of people per hour in a 3.5m wide lane, by mode 100,000 80,000 45,000 22,000 19,000 17,000 9000 14,000 2000 Mixed Regular Cyclists BRT Pedestrians Light BRT Heavy Rail Suburban Rail Traffic Bus Single lane Rail Double lane (e.g Hong Kong) (e.g Mumbai) Source: Breithaupt (2010), based on Botma and Papendrecht (1991). 56 Arusha deteriorates (see Box 11). In 2020, with rare exceptions, the prevailing V/C ratio in the central areas of the intermediate cities of Tanzania is still well below the 70% thresholdiv. If the use of motorized modes increases to 60% in the next 15 years, as is likely in the absence of intervention, the V/C ratio will surpass the 70% threshold even if road capacity increases by 10%. This translates in motor vehicles taking 1.7 times as long to drive 1 km (3.8 minutes instead of 2.2 minutes) if capacity increases by 10% and 3.4 times if capacity remains unmodified. In short, gridlock is highly likely to ensue. Worsening congestion could reduce accessibility to jobs by almost half. Traffic congestion increases the time and monetary costs of commuting, reducing access to economic opportunities and social services such as schools and health facilities. With high V/C levels, in-vehicle travel times will increase and become more unpredictable. An average route in the four intermediate cities surveyed takes 56 minutes to be completed today, but a reduction in speed from 16 km/h to 10 km/h will add 34 additional minutes of travel. Speed reductions alone will reduce accessibility to jobs by between 5% in Moshi to 45% in Mwanza. Accessibility to amenities is less affected by increased congestion. If public transport speed is cut by half, the share of people accessing at least one amenity using public transport will fall at most 9% for all amenities considered. The bars in Figure 14 compare current levels of accessibility to those attained if the speed was reduced 50% in all routes; the gray bars show the decreased percentage in accessibility. iv An analysis of traffic volumes provided by TARURA for 66 collector roads that were counted in 2019 indicated that the highest volume road had V/C of 71%, and almost all of the others were well below the 70% threshold. 57 Box 11 Volume-to-capacity threshold Congestion increases exponentially as the volume of vehicles in a road system approaches 70% of the Figure Box 11.1. Effect of Traffic V/C system’s capacity. The ratio of volume-to-capacity Ratio on Level of Congestion (V/C) is the main determinant of the quality of road traffic flow. As shown below, as long as traffic volume stays below 70% of capacity, congestion is minimal; increasing volumes do not produce a noticeable (lower speed, higher delay) deterioration of performance as motorized vehicles Level of Congestion can travel at a speed of 50 km per hour (see table following). However, once the 70% threshold is crossed, the dynamic changes. At a V/C ratio of 70-80%, traffic congestion evolves from a topic of conversation to a noticeable irritant—average speed drops to 30 km/h. At a V/C ratio of 80%-90%, delay increases very significantly with average speed dropping to 20 km/h. Beyond 90%, traffic flow becomes unstable 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% and unpredictable, with an average speed of 10 km/h. Traffic V / C (%) Over 95%, the system becomes nearly immobile Source: Thornhill (1982). during peak hours. Some of the explanations behind the exponential growth is that increased traffic also causes increased conflicts at roundabouts and uncontrolled intersections. It also results from a magnifying effect on routine slowdowns, such as public transport vehicles stopping for passengers and midblock side frictions. With high traffic volumes, driver reactions to events compound one another: a momentary slowdown by one driver can increase with each following car that reacts, until there is a total stoppage a few cars behind with no apparent cause. Table Box 11.1. Average trip speed at different levels of congestion (km/h) Average Road Motorized modes Modal share Volume/Capacity Ratio <70% 70-90% <90% Automobile 8% 50 30 10 Motorcycle 18% 50 35 20 Daladala 75% 20 10 5 Weighted Average 27.5 15.9 8.0 Note: The speed estimates are illustrative rough estimates for a hypothetical intermediate city in Tanzania. The daladala speed for V/C <70% is the median route speed during peak hours in the four cities where route data collection was conducted. The estimate of motor vehicle travel speeds on urban road networks is extremely complex and depends on many attributes of road infrastructure, traffic control, traffic composition and volume, and road user behavior. 58 Figure 14 Accessibility to jobs deteriorates under higher congestion Accessibility by city with a 50% reduction in traffic speed from current conditions 100% 80% Accessibility using public 60% transport 40% 20% 0% Dodoma Dodoma Dodoma Mwanza Mwanza Mwanza Arusha Arusha Arusha Moshi Moshi Moshi 0% between the two scenarios Change in accessibility -20% -40% -60% Jobs Health Centers Markets Accessibility by Traffic speed falls Change in PT today 50% for PT accessibility Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), OpenStreetMaps and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. 59 Morogoro 2.4 Lower accessibility from poor mobility and higher congestion reduces productivity and quality of life Businesses bear increased costs from the direct and indirect impact of traffic congestion. Costs come from higher vehicle operating costs, slower and less reliable delivery of inputs and outputs, healthcare expenses from pollution, and injuries or deaths from accidents. Where the costs of congestion have been measured in other countries, the figures range around 1% to 4% of national GDP57. With high transport costs and low accessibility, cities become a “collection of disconnected and small neighborhoods”58, taking a toll on productivity. Increased traffic congestion reduces access to economic opportunities, spreading business across the city and increasing the costs of accessing a wider pool of jobs. This fragmentation of the labor market deteriorates the quality of the skills match: workers are not able to reach the jobs that make the most out of their skills and, conversely, businesses do not find the best skill set available for their job posts. It also debilitates scale economies and knowledge transfer. For instance, by locating close to one another, businesses share transport costs of input providers. As businesses spread across the city due to sprawl, and it is costlier to reach them, they need to pay the full amount of transport costs. Disconnected cities are also a burden for residents, especially the poorest. Low personal income limits people’s choice of where to live and the mode, frequency, and length of their trips. Transport costs consume a higher proportion of income for the poor, leaving little for other necessities, education, or savings. As cities grow in size and travel becomes slower and more expensive, the poor are restricted to jobs near their homes, missing opportunities available in labor markets in other parts of the city. Similarly, disconnected cities are likely to have a larger negative effect on women. Evidence from developed and developing countries show women have different mobility patterns than men. Influenced by social roles, women are usually in charge of family care and household work. 60 They engage in more non-work travel (e.g., going to the market and picking up children from school). Daladala passenger surveys in Mwanza, Arusha, Dodoma, and Moshi suggest this is the case in Tanzania.. When asked about their origin and destination, the share of women traveling for medical reasons or shopping for groceries or other items was between 12 and 20 percentage points higher than the share of men traveling for the same reason. International evidence also shows women take more trips per day, travel shorter distances to work, take more multi-stop trips, use cheaper and less efficient modes of transport (walk more, use more public transport, and use cars and bicycles less), and base their choice of commuting mode not only on time and cost, but also on safety. Studies show women have a high willingness to pay to avoid sexual violence while using public transport59. As a consequence, urban sprawl and poor transport options have a disproportionate effect on women, as they reduce their options to move, increase the time and cost of commuting, and ultimately, reduce their access to opportunities. Quality of life will also deteriorate as road accidents increase. If infrastructure does not improve and transform to meet the demands of various commuters, and especially to protect NMT users, fatalities, injuries, and economic losses will further increase. Poorer commuters are likely to fare worse, since they disproportionately use NMT. Higher levels of pollution will compromise residents’ health and damage their livelihoods and productivity. Worldwide, air pollution reduces life expectancy by 1.8 years60 and causes 8.8 million early deaths a year61. In 2013, premature mortality due to ambient air pollution alone reduced the GDP of countries in Sub-Saharan Africa by 1.4%62. Exposure to air pollution is associated with illness and premature death, reducing the quality of life of citizens and their ability to work. For instance, Shanghai and Nantong call center workers are 6% more productive on low-pollution days than on high-pollution days63. In short, the costs of car dependency increase dramatically with urban growth, as does the difficulty of transitioning to a more sustainable transport system. It is significantly cheaper and easier to intervene early in this cycle, before significant public and private capital is sunk into private motorized vehicles and their infrastructure and before there is a major constituency for private motorized vehicles-favoring policy. 61 Arusha 02 The Causes of Poor Accessibility Rapid population growth, increasing motorization rates, growing financing gaps, and the severe effects of climate change will place immense pressure on urban mobility systems. Unplanned urban sprawl, driven by and driving further motorization in the absence of alternatives, and characterized by limited NMT and public transport networks, is expected to dramatically worsen accessibility. This feedback loop between deteriorating accessibility and sprawling will have increasingly detrimental effects on urban development in intermediate cities in Tanzania. Though policymakers have taken necessary steps towards improving the sector in intermediate cities, bolder action is needed. Existing interventions have not been enough to lessen these megatrends, and in some cases, have exacerbated them. There are four areas that explain current trends and where there is room to divert from the vicious cycle of congestion- motorization-urban sprawl (see Figure 15), in approximate order of macro-to-micro: Mwanza 63 Figure 15 Causes of poor urban accessibility Strategic vision Governance Finance Management Targets Institutional Resources and Planning Set-up Allocation at the Macro Level Priorities Data and Decision Technical Tools Making Process Sector own Sources of Interventions Revenue Operations Coordination Reliability/ Predictability of Resources Human Resources I. Strategic Vision: Existing targets, priorities, and initiatives transparent, coordination encouraged and institutionalized, are not aligned with long-term sustainable mobility goals. regulations better enforced, and capacity aligned behind Urban development targets, such as satellite cities, contribute technical and administrative needs. to urban sprawl. Policy priorities in the transport sector favor the mobility of private cars over the accessibility of people, III. Finance: Financials are constrained and unpredictable, reinforcing motorization trends and neglecting the large hindering long-term planning and forcing policymakers into share of the population that walks to work without access to extreme trade-offs. There are potential new sources of dedicated infrastructure. A bold, transformative, progressive income and ways to use existing resources more efficiently. vision, focusing people-centered policy, has the potential to make Tanzania’s intermediate cities more inclusive and IV. Management: Current management and operations productive. aren’t aligned behind better transport policy. Improved management can quickly improve present and near-future II. Governance: Current institutional structures are not mobility and urban governance, with better planning, aligned behind better transport futures. The institutional stronger use of data and technical tools, and more efficient configuration favors roadbuilding at the expense of operations. maintenance and, more significantly, public transport and NMT. Decision-making can be made more inclusive and 64 long term69. These city designs usually involve the construction of satellite centers between 4 and 40 km from the CBD. Physical decentralization of land use, in the form of satellite towns, is not an effective solution to congestion or an approach to manage fast urbanization. Satellite towns are usually proposed on the grounds that: (i) concentration of economic activities in the CBD inevitably leads to congestion70, (ii) satellite towns will involve mixed activities where people work, live, and access commerce while reducing their trips to 1. Strategic Vision the CBD, and (iii) satellite cities will be developed at higher densities than the current low-density sprawl seen in many 1.1 Present targets promote intermediate cities. In reality, satellite cities rarely (if ever) fulfill decentralized urban development these promises (see Box 12). and stimulate urban sprawl Satellite cities are not unique to Tanzanian policy, but The GoT identifies intermediate cities as hubs of productivity international experience shows that they are unlikely to be and opportunities for economic growth and poverty a solution to the problems of urban population growth and reduction. Cities are called to more actively contribute to the associated congestion. While some households relocate to country’s economic growth by becoming more competitive these new centers, businesses do not follow because they and more appealing to prospective investment64. Mwanza, benefit from existing agglomeration—as predicted by existing for example, intends to become a logistics hub to cement Tanzanian urban policy. Though short-term congestion may Tanzania’s role as a conduit for exports from the central African be alleviated by removing activities from the central area, lakes’ region65. Morogoro strives to be an industrial and logistic urban expansion increases reliance on and induces demand for center, and Moshi an industrial and tourist hub. By facilitating private motorized vehicles, boosting congestion. In the medium trade for rural inputs and goods and capitalizing on the natural and long term, this strategy fuels the vicious cycle of car agglomeration benefits of urban density, cities can promote job dependence discussed in Chapter 1: higher traffic congestion creation both locally and in their rural hinterlands. creates pressure for more urban expansion, which increases motorization and leads to more congestion. Satellite cities are Sustainable transport and urban density are two targets in effect a form of urban sprawl, and evidence just from East that the government identifies to achieve sustainable Africa finds that sprawl worsens health, increases infrastructure development. The Five-Year National Development Plan costs, destroys farmland and natural ecosystems, increases (2016/17-2020/21) identifies the lack of density, lack of urban decay and inequality, and increases traffic congestion71. basic services and infrastructure, and increasing traffic congestion as main obstacles to the productive potential Other land policies in Tanzania also promote urban of cities. It sets as a target “planned and serviced urban sprawl. Urban planning standards unintentionally prevent settlements with functioning town planning procedures, densification. For instance, the 2011 Urban Planning and including improved solid and liquid waste management, Space Standards Regulations set large minimum plot sizes use of sustainable transport and cleaner energy66”. (300-600 m2) for detached housing in dense areas, among the highest among East African countries72. This results in However, in contradiction, both national and local fewer dwelling units per hectare and reduces density. Similarly, governments also target the decentralization of activities out although Master Plans call for densification, they also propose of central business districts (CBDs) through satellite cities67. that large areas on the outskirts become the locations of The Five-Year National Development Plan sets densification residential, commercial, and industrial growth73. Urban sprawl targets for CBDs and periphery areas, but also encourages is the predictable result of policies such as these. the development of satellite cities. The policy guideline can be traced to the Urban Planning Act of 2007, which states that “General planning schemes shall put a limit to municipal physical growth after which development shall be directed to Physical decentralization of land satellite towns”68. This vision is guiding the urban development use, in the form of satellite towns, of cities: 79% of 14 recently updated intermediate cities Master is not an effective solution to Plans reviewed for this study, including Dodoma and Arusha, congestion or an approach to consider satellite towns as a formula for development and a solution to reduce congestion and increase productivity in the manage fast urbanization. 65 Box 12 Why Seoul’s Satellite Towns didn’t work Faced with severe shortages in housing supply, the Government of South Korea decided to implement the ‘‘Two Million Home Construction Plan’’ in late 1980s. The massive residential constructions occurred 20 – 25 kms from Seoul City Centre to create five new towns of Bundang, Ilsan, Pyeongchon, Sanbon, and Joongdong. Upon project completion, new towns were intended to provide residential and commercial opportunities, and therefore reduce dependency on Seoul. Further, availability of socio-economic opportunities within the new towns was thought to imply fewer commutes to the city, and reduced travel hassle coupled with access to modern housing and open spaces would ultimately lead to improved living standards among residents. In the end, commercial development didn’t follow residential development and the result was large dormitory towns servicing and dependent on Seoul, with associated costs in transport and other infrastructure. According to the Korean Transportation Institute, 34.8% of daily trips made by residents in the new towns to the city center in 1998 were work-related. These new towns actually underperformed existing satellite towns: trips took eight minutes longer compared to similar trips originated from towns nearby the city center *. In all, Seoul’s satellite towns were ineffectual, and possibly even counterproductive. * Korea Transport Institute (KoTI) (1998). 1.2 Present mobility priorities neglect accessibility and people- centered mobility In Tanzania, policymakers are following a paradigm of urban transport that promotes private car use, fueling the vicious cycle of automobile dependency. Internationally, urban transport policies have historically prioritized connecting places and enabling the fast transit of motorized vehicles. This approach has led to the construction of long, complex urban highways and road networks that have resulted in more congestion, longer travel times, auto-dependency, and poor access to opportunities, especially for the majority who cannot afford to travel by car. Other negative effects include huge costs to productivity, urban sprawl, and poor safety and air quality. Transport policy today increasingly focuses on people and their access to opportunities. This has enabled policymakers to serve all types of transport users and realize a broad range of social, economic, and environmental benefits. Investments in new roads are prioritized over non-motorized transport, public transport, and traffic management that can more efficiently improve people’s access to jobs and opportunities. For example, TanRoads prioritizes projects based on the road’s connectivity and capacity, occasionally building fly-overs and ring roads, which may increase the travelling speed of motorized vehicles in the short run, but do not improve commuting time in the long run. Focusing on the potential ability of investments to provide access to opportunities can lead to more cost-effective solutions that may or may not involve the construction of new roads. For example, by focusing on accessibility, instead of connectivity alone, policy solutions may lead to prioritize bike lanes or sidewalks that do not promote motorization, or to prioritizing traffic management investments that lead to a more efficient use of the infrastructure available. Similarly, policy prioritizes the movement of private cars despite the fact that relatively few people use them in Tanzania. Urban space is a scarce resource, and both automobiles and 66 Figure 16 People-centred Mobility Paradigm Active Travel Walking With Disabilities Elderly Children Rideables Scooter Bicycle Public Transport Dala Dala Train Vehicles Truck Bajaj Taxi Motorcycle Car 67 sprawl consume an inordinate amount of it. Transport policy that treats space as scarce and valuable would encourage more efficient use of it. A transport policy and program of investment that focused on people would involve serving proportionally the majority who travel by NMT and public transport (see Figure 16). It would be more equitable, more efficient, and achieve a range of social, economic, and environmental benefits. In Tanzania, planning and design standards make reference to non-motorized transport, but it is still not a priority and implementation lags behind. Almost all Master Plans reviewed (13 out of 14) incorporate the need to prioritize NMT as a general approach, but only four (Dodoma, Morogoro, Moshi, and Geita) link it to specific projects such as bicycle lanes and pedestrian paths. Similarly, Master Plans propose large-scale long-term projects such as Bus Rapid Transit System (BRT), while public transport regulation and operations are not discussed as a necessary first step to improve urban mobility. Road standards include considerations for non-motorized and public transport users, but construction standards lag behind. Road construction standards produced by the Ministry of Works, Transport and Communications (MWTC) include guidelines to design non-motorized and public transport infrastructure as part of all new road development, but construction methods have not been developed for pedestrian and cycling infrastructure. Where guidelines exist, they focus primarily on the needs of private vehicles rather than non-motorized and public transport. For example, though recently built trunk roads include bus bay areas, these are located 1-2 km apart from each other: too far for the purposes of most bus riders. This discourages public transport use and encourages daladalas to ignore the provided infrastructure. Design standards differ for transit stop spacing, but 400-500m is generally considered the upper limit of easy walkability74; NMT infrastructure can extend this limit by reducing obstacles on walking paths and making walking more comfortable. Urban transport projects and policies in intermediate cities Investments in new roads are prioritized over have focused on infrastructure expansion, while neglecting the non-motorized transport, public transport, maintenance and management of and traffic management that can more existing infrastructure. Intermediate efficiently improve people’s access to jobs and cities are trying to build themselves opportunities. out of congestion by expanding the supply of road infrastructure. Different agencies’ strategic plans reflect this prioritization. For instance, TanRoads specifies in its 5th Strategic Plan (2016/17 – 2020/21) that it intends to complete “283.8 km of decongestant roads in major cities and towns […] by June 2021.” New roads may be needed to meet specific needs, especially in cases where there are critical missing links to the network or bottlenecks to its performance. However, traffic management is a much more cost-effective way to reduce congestion and maximize the benefits of the road network. Though TARURA and TanRoads use specific traffic control mechanisms (e.g., speed bumps), they do not implement any standalone traffic management projects. 68 1.3 Interventions are focused on short-term priorities rather than long-term urban strategy Practitioners in Tanzania do use investments in road infrastructure to discourage sprawl, but road infrastructure is a major determinant of urban development patterns, shaping private investment and urban sprawl. Practitioners consider the highest priority in the transport sector to be increasing the rate of infrastructure expansion to step ahead of urban settlements and avoid future resettlement costs75. However, road infrastructure is de facto guiding development in Tanzanian intermediate cities as settlements grow along major road transport corridors76 that extend into the urban periphery. The development attracted by roads can be almost irreversible, creating patterns of urban settlement that can last over 150 years77. When land-use controls are weak, as they are in the peripheries of Tanzania’s intermediate cities, roads are particularly influential. There is room to use these interventions more purposefully in order to prevent urban sprawl, signal the desired direction of expansion, and reinforce density in already-settled areas. Pre-emptive servicing can also prevent slum formation, resulting in increased land values and regular and organized settlements in the long run. In Dar es Salaam, areas such as Sinza that had early investments in infrastructure during the 1970s and 1980s, today have higher land values and bigger, more organized plots than other parts of the city, such as Ubungo, that went through later upgrading78. Dar-es-Salaam 69 Urban transport policy is treated as a subset of rural transport policy, despite having very different needs, constraints, and even objectives. The road system of cities in Tanzania has been conceived and developed as a collection of essentially rural roads, rather than as an urban network. But urban areas demand a different approach to design and operate road space. These involve different design standards to share scarce road space between different transport modes, and route planning that is focused on accessibility rather than just connectivity. In keeping with this practice, plans and interventions focus on expanding infrastructure out of the built-up area, but few policies address access in the city center. The main response to mobility challenges has been the execution of ring roads, flyovers, and new intermediate roads79. Road capacity expansion is intended to accommodate a greater number of private vehicles, even though only a small amount of the population uses them. Investments in ring roads and similar projects focus on helping the mobility of only a small subset of all trips taken within the urban area. Although these play a role in diverting truck traffic from city center, their role is often overstated relative to the amount of investment required and the return on mobility for the poor. Not all road expansion is undesirable particularly in cities with very low road density, but it is important that it is conceived with the vulnerable user in mind. Urban transport policy is treated as a subset There have been few standalone projects and policies addressing of rural transport policy, despite having non-motorized or public very different needs, constraints, and even transport, but not yet sustained objectives. pipelines. While TanRoads and TARURA’s projects consider NMT and public transport in their designs (including sidewalks, bus bays, and roadway cross-sections), they have yet to have a project focused solely on building or expanding these types of facilities. Municipalities have done so, but only sporadically. Such projects, such as the Nyegezi Bus Stand in Mwanza, have been financed outside of normal sector programming, as a municipality solicited and received funding directly from the Ministry of Finance under the Strategic Project Program80. TARURA expressed the desire to execute projects strictly focused on NMT81 and have requested bus stops and footbridges as part of the World Bank Local Government Strengthening Program project (ULGSP). Although Tanzania’s transport infrastructure is vulnerable and frequently affected by extreme weather and natural disasters, the practice to manage disaster risk in Tanzania is reactive and focused on the short term. Drainage is designed without reference to the likely volume of floods and stormwater infrastructure is under-maintained, limiting its performance. Resilience considerations are not integrated into urban transport planning, resulting in major roads being built in vulnerable floodplains82. Activities in response to flooding are a significant drain on the sector budget, since it accelerates infrastructure depreciation and repairs have to be done repeatedly. In 2014, road repair in Dar es Salaam alone reached about USD$8.5 million83, and in Mwanza, authorities recognize the cumulative cost of emergency repairs is draining funding from other important maintenance and sector investment activities84. In addition, agencies’ effort have to be directed to mitigate the damage, instead of adapting proactively to frequent such events85. Consistently reacting to emergencies, although necessary, can lead to resource use that is crisis-driven rather than programmed, preventing progress towards equally necessary long-term goals. 70 2.2 Decisions for planning and investing in urban mobility are made far from the ground and across multiple disconnected institutions Decisions and investments in the urban transport sector are highly centralized, with overlapping and sometimes unclear responsibilities for different levels of government. Most of the decisions that affect mobility in intermediate cities, 2. Governance from development and maintenance of road infrastructure to public transport fares, are determined at the national level, without strong reference to local conditions. Local government 2.1 Institutional gaps and missing authorities (LGAs) have little influence over regulation and regulatory frameworks reduce the budget and operations management. Regulation, investment ability of policy to influence mobility decisions, and budget allocations are carried out instead outcomes by national institutions, while some sectoral activities are monitored and managed at the local level by deconcentrated There is a striking institutional gap in Tanzania around urban offices of national agencies, namely TARURA’s regional offices transport. Institutions are the mechanisms by which policy and LATRA’s regional offices (see Table 2). With respect to priorities are translated into programs and projects. The investment decisions, LGAs have successfully driven road absence of institutions—either national or local—focused selections within specific programs such as the World Bank’s on urban transport in intermediate cities both reveals and Tanzania Strategic Cities Project (TSCP) and ULGSP, but the guarantees that this area of policy is given insufficient focus, final approval is reserved for the national level outside these priority, and investment. TanRoads, the national-level agency programs. For example, the process to select new road responsible for construction, operation, and maintenance development projects to be executed by TARURA originates of most primary roads in intermediate cities, is focused on within the district council, but follows lengthy review and intraregional connectivity. TARURA, the national agency in approval process ending at the national parliament86 (see charge of other urban roads, is a nascent institution that is Figure 17). When local authorities take the lead, decisions can also in charge of rural roads and has regional offices that serve be reverted by the central government. For example, TARURA both rural and urban areas. Similarly, LATRA’s regional offices coordinated with the Mwanza city director to attempt to serve both urban and rural districts. The only institutions with relocate street vendors off sidewalk space, but the National a mandate focused on urban public transport are the Dar es Government prevented the relocation from happening87. Salaam Rapid Transit Agency (DART) and the prospective Dar es Salaam Urban Transport Authority (DUTA), whose remits are Centralized decision-making can be valuable: it allows for specifically focused on Dar es Salaam. a more efficient use of scarce specialized human resources and the establishment and maintenance of strategic This institutional gap particularly affects public transport, visions to guide the development of projects and policies. where traffic regulations are inconsistently and poorly A successful example of this is the establishment of the enforced, where they exist at all. The overall policy with respect RFB to maintain roads throughout the country. Earmarked to public transport has been one of laissez-faire with low levels resources for maintenance, although insufficient, allow for of government involvement. The poor quality and challenging multi-year maintenance planning that is badly needed, even operating conditions of daladala service is exacerbated by the if not as popular as new development. Recent initiatives in absence of regulations to make the business more profitable road safety, modernization of public transport fare collection, and functional, and of active enforcement of rules intended to and consolidation of the operating industry also present protect the riding public and other road users, including vehicle opportunities for effective central management. This is safety standards, rules against crowding, operating regulations of particular benefit if conditions and needs do not vary regarding speed and stopping, and driver qualifications. significantly between such areas. Missing regulations and weak enforcement of those that exist have huge costs to cities, and commuters in particular, as it However, conditions and needs do vary significantly encourages the drivers to compete fiercely for passengers, across places, and intermediate cities are a key example. serve only most-demanded routes, and overload buses. 71 Table 2 Institutions involved in mobility infrastructure and services LGAs TARURA Tanroads LATRA National Traffic (PoRALG) (MWTC) (MWTC) Police (MHA) Road construction Set and disburse Fund and execute Fund and execute and Maintenance funding for district roads trunk and regional district road construction and roads construction maintenance and maintenance and maintenance repair if they can Sidewalks Regulates usage Build and Build and maintain with interference maintain on on trunk and from the National district roads regional roads. Government (pedestrians, street vendors) Traffic Signaling/ Maintain Install and Install and operate Enforce traffic Signage road facilities operate on on trunk and laws (streetlights, bus district roads regional roads stops seats, road signs and signals etc.) Public Transport Build and operate Build bus stops on Issue daladala Enforce public bus terminals, trunk and regional route licenses. transport and issue bajaj roads Establish regulations and bodaboda regulations. licenses Enforce (outsourced by regulations LATRA) Source: Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021) and additional desk research. Intermediate cities such as Dodoma and Mwanza do not There is thus a need to properly frame the role of the function like rural areas, nor like Dar es Salaam. Their particular national and subnational levels within the processes of role in Tanzania’s space economy is recognized by national planning, identification, selection, design, implementation, policy such as the Five-Year National Development Plan, but and operation of policies and projects in a way that the that comes with the need to be managed in particular ways. strengths of each are enhanced. Overly centralized decision- The mobility future of these cities doesn’t resemble other parts making reduces policy ownership and accountability by civil of the country: uniquely, they are not yet car dependent (unlike society. It fails to take into account local knowledge regarding Dar es Salaam), but are rapidly becoming so (unlike rural areas local conditions. The Ministry of Lands, Housing and Human and small towns). They are not well served by being treated as Settlements Development (MLHHS) and the President’s belonging to either of these categories, or generically without Office Regional Administration and Local Government (PO- reference to their conditions. This is well-founded in Tanzanian RALG) frequently lead the development of specific urban policy: the 1996-2005 Local Government Reform program plans, resulting in limited buy-in and ownership by the local promoted the decentralization of urban functions and formula- institutions who are nevertheless expected to implement based intergovernmental transfers. However, there has been a them. At the implementation level, national level agencies such trend towards recentralization in recent years. LGAs have lost as TanRoads and TARURA identify, select, design, and execute own-source revenue and control over local budgets, as well as road infrastructure projects with little involvement from local responsibilities to deliver infrastructure . 88 levels of government. 72 Arusha Decision-making frequently excludes non-governmental stakeholders, whose involvement would promote better prioritization, design, and consensus for projects and policies. Though stakeholder groups are consulted during the preparation of Master Plans, they are rarely consulted during the planning and design decisions for specific projects where they could have a larger positive effect. There is a direct link between policy neglect of popular modes of transport and lack of effective input from the majority of people who rely on such modes: there are no systematic procedures for involvement of user or operator groups relating to public transport, NMT, and taxis. This also affects the quality of the design of related projects and the ultimate success of their implementation. Public transport operators have detailed knowledge of how changes in regulations and provision of infrastructure could help them provide good services. In addition, their support is fundamental to the acceptance and success of any modernization initiatives. The more inclusive decision-making is, the greater the consensus that is built around the decisions that are made, resulting in easier and faster implementation of interventions. The selection of urban transport capital investments is fragmented, with projects chosen individually rather than as part of strategic programs. This is resource inefficient, and exacerbated by a variety of uncoordinated implementing agencies and funders. There is no comprehensive strategic process to identify and prioritize competing investments. Projects do not necessarily match Master Plans and there is little comparison and evaluation of alternatives. Decision-making with respect to road infrastructure investments mix a top-down approach from TanRoads, which follows the agency’s 10- and 5-year implementation plans, and a bottom-up approach from TARURA, which executes new developments proposed by the district councils and approved by the RFB. Projects funded by development partners are selected differently through processes that can be participatory in nature, but with no formalized link between the processes of each of the sector actors. None of these three processes represents a coherent strategy to improve overall accessibility, or other desirable policy outcomes, in the places that receive investment. 73 2.3 Coordination mechanisms are non-existent, informal, or otherwise inadequate In a context of institutional fragmentation and divided decision-making processes, reliable processes of coordination between levels of government, sectors, and sectoral agencies to align priorities and interventions is key. The Regional Road Boards are the only consistent mechanism of coordination between stakeholders for the identification and selection of transport projects, but they are consultative rather than formulative89. Both TARURA and TanRoads’ infrastructure development projects need to be approved by the Regional Road Boardsv. This body meets twice per year, is chaired by the Regional Commissioner (PO-RALG) and is attended by mayors, city directors, and members of Parliament who decide by majority whether to approve proposals. Non-government actors, such as bus owners and operators, bodaboda operators, and bajaj operators are also invited. However, in practice, projects are rarely modified or rejected at this level, since coordination happens through informal channels between TARURA and the district council. v Beyond Regional Road Boards, less-used avenues for TARURA to solicit proposals for road works include Full Council Meetings, Regional Secretariat Meetings, and special requests from institutions such as universities, industrial areas, and so on. Figure 17 Process of selection and approval of TARURA’s new development projects TARURA Council TARURA Council Communities and Managers consult Managers compile, stakeholders identify respective District Full assess and rank potential road projects Council for inputs and proposed projects buy-in TARURA Council TARURA Regional A committee at TARURA Managers revise Coordinators review Headquarters review proposals and submit submitted proposals submitted proposals and project documents to and develop regional budgets against policies Regional Coordinators budgets and directives PO-RALG submits the TARURA CEO reviews RFB and PO-RALG budget to the parliament and endorses inspect and endorse the for final review and development budget budget approval RFB conducts technical RFB disburses funds to TARURA subcontracts audits to promote TARURA per approved and supervises accountability and budgets and based on implementation of quality assurance of the available funds approved road projects disbursements Source: Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 74 During the implementation of projects, coordination mechanisms between the local authorities and road agencies remain informal. Participation from municipal councils during the operation, maintenance, and management of the roads overseen by TanRoads is limited and informal. TanRoads works with municipalities while conducting feasibility studies of road expansion projects, but this coordination is limited, short- lasting, and only at the planning stage, while no interactions occur during the design and implementation of such projects90. Coordination between TARURA and the municipalities is enforced through political negotiations to decide which projects should be presented to the Regional Road Board. LATRA outsources some activities to the municipal councils, but there is no coordination mechanism to improve accessibility through transit management. LATRA outsources the collection of fees for public transport and private vehicle licenses to municipalities, but doesn’t work with them on either fare and service policies, which are handled at the national level, or on day-to-day regulation and enforcement of services, which are handled at the regional level. Even though municipalities are often responsible for investment in main bus terminals as well as their operation, they do not consistently coordinate with LATRA in the design of this infrastructure or in the regulation of its usage. Mwanza In practice, the lack of coordination between sectors results in unnecessarily costly interventions. In Dar es Salaam, prior inputs for road construction standards, but at the subnational to implementing BRT, there were severe problems caused by level the relationship is mostly informal. TanRoads and TARURA lack of coordination among different actors responsible for interact informally, for example through the use of materials the various aspects of urban transport in the city: Ministry labs, sitting on each other’s bid evaluation committees and of Transport for policy and planning, TanRoads for road supporting each other’s monitoring and evaluation activities. infrastructure, the Traffic Police Department for traffic control But there are no formal guidelines for this coordination; it is and enforcement, and LATRA (SUMATRA at the time) for mainly made possible by personal connections and convention, regulation of public transport . This lack of coordination was 91 rather than by institutionalized operating procedures92. characterized by overlapping functions and poor assignment of responsibilities, which tied up limited capacity for the Finally, accessibility is essential to the effectiveness of regulation of public transport services and implementation of education and health facilities, but is neglected. Schools programs for its improvement. This was thought to be such an and health centers are fundamental to guarantee the quality impediment to improvement that a key part of the BRT project of life of citizens, but they receive insufficient attention as to was the establishment of DUTA to act as an intermediary and how citizens will access them. Improving access to one health coordinating authority between national institutions and the facility can provide many of the same benefits as building an agencies responsible for the management, development, and additional facility, at a fraction of the cost. But policies tend regulation of city transport. to focus on building new infrastructure without considering upgrading transport infrastructure/services to existing service There is potential to improve TARURA’s performance by points, or even having standalone improvements in transport strengthening coordination mechanisms with TanRoads. and infrastructure. According to the management of one of the Informal coordination has allowed knowledge transfer between road agencies, ministries responsible for these services do not TARURA and TanRoads, but a lack of formal channels results coordinate with transport sector agencies on the proposed in unpredictable quality that varies across projects and cities. locations of facilities and, consequently, the effect of users TARURA is a young agency and relies on TanRoads’ experience travelling to and from these facilities is not properly anticipated in construction standards and execution. There are some efforts or designed for; nor are other, potentially more accessible at the national level for TanRoads to support TARURA, such as locations considered93. 75 Morogoro 2.4 Human resources are extremely limited Local agencies are understaffed. Government agencies responsible for transport in intermediate cities lack the staff to keep pace with their increasing and diversifying responsibilities. The transport systems of these rapidly growing urban areas must be planned, operated, and managed more effectively to avoid progressively worsening performance in the face of increasing demand. For instance, the Dodoma regional office of LATRA has four people to handle all of their regulatory responsibilities, including infield enforcement, covering services provided by 1,520 daladalas, 1,960 bodabodas, and 5,000 bajajs94. The range of skills among existing staff is too narrow to tackle present and future mobility challenges. In the past, these agencies responded mostly to rural and interregional mobility needs, which prioritized the design and implementation of road and bridge infrastructure. Given ongoing funding constraints, they have rationalized the skills of their personnel narrowly towards conducting these core activities. Today, the range of challenges these agencies face is far wider, but they lack the corresponding breadth of skills. New tasks include the design and implementation of infrastructure for NMT, more active regulation of traffic and public transport operations, and installation and maintenance of traffic control devices. Outsourcing of core functions is more expensive and less effective than having sufficient capacity for routine activities. TARURA’s core functions include the design and planning of roads of all kinds, but instead of building internal capacity, it relies on periodically hiring outside consultants for this expertise95. This not only costs more, but it also ensures that the government is unduly reliant on outside capacity. Counterintuitively, reliance on consultants can make an institution less—not more—flexible, as staff become reliant on a narrowly focused sectoral ecosystem and can become glorified contract administrators rather than skilled sector specialists. The lack of strategic, coherent programs limits skills and capacity development. A sustained multi-year program of sustainable mobility would make it worthwhile for institutions to develop the skills of their staff and hire other skilled staff. Disparate small contracts offer no such opportunity, as an institution cannot predict the specific skills they will need. One-off training activities such as courses or workshops are not effective substitutes. Until now, the majority of activities have focused on the design and implementation of road infrastructure projects, as opposed to establishment of mobility investment and management programs. Therefore, employees can’t continually learn by being involved in setting up and then running such programs, which would serve to strengthen and retain such professionals as well as to attract new ones. 76 source revenues. Until three years ago, 50% of funding for urban transport in Mwanza came from the municipality100. Since TARURA took over the responsibility, local own-source revenues stopped flowing to the sector. Though LGAs undertake minor investments in road infrastructure, their priorities have switched to other sectors (such as water or electricity). The RFB has recognized the loss of funding available for urban transport activities in intermediate cities and is exploring an increase in funding for TARURA, which currently receives 27% of the RFB funds101. 3. Finance Despite the growing need and potential economic return of 3.1 Resources are scarce and unduly projects in intermediate cities, a small share of available funds favor motor vehicles are allocated to urban projects, and those predominantly favor Dar es Salaam. Only 8.4% of the planned transport Tanzania has strongly institutionalized investments in sector investment for 2018/19-2020/21 was to be spent in maintenance, following international practice. The RFB cities, and of those, 96.6% were planned in Dar es Salaam102. collects more than two-thirds of total road user charges 96 Similarly, 76% of road development and 94% of bridge, fly-over, and, by law, dedicates at least 90% to maintenance activities , 97 and interchange projects managed by TanRoads between while the rest is used for development projects. Investing 2016-2020 were developed in Dar es Salaam103. Though Dar in maintenance is key to reduce future costs. If procured on es Salaam is the main driver of economic growth in the country time, maintenance costs about 5% of the asset’s value, while and the city is suffering from a mobility crisis that directly delayed maintenance can increase the cost of repair six times affects economic activity, investing in intermediate cities after just three years of neglect, not counting indirect costs, would save future costs from retrofitting. such as increased vehicle operating costs . 98 Most funds of urban transport in intermediate cities However, few resources are available for mobility in are allocated to motor vehicle-centered initiatives. The intermediate cities. Funding is insufficient to meet their predominant type of urban transport projects undertaken in minimum needs for urban mobility and maintenance. Though intermediate cities remains the expansion of principal roads. most of the RFB funds are allocated to maintenance activities, Though sidewalks are sometimes built as part of the road, on average only 50% of annual maintenance needs for roads there are few stand-alone non-motorized or public transport administered by TanRoads and TARURA are covered (see projects on the ongoing pipeline and traffic management Table 3). Resources for road expansion are not available systems are not being upgraded proportional to usage. or minimal. In the last three years, TARURA has received Given the small share of motor vehicle users, their relatively RFB funds for new development in only four of a sample of high incomes, and the predictable negative effects of a car- 11 intermediate cities99. When RFB resources are available dependent future in these cities, this is a severe misallocation for new development, they are only enough to build a few of capital. extra km of road, totaling less than 1% of their current road infrastructure. For example, 28% of TARURA’s resources in Dodoma were devoted to new development in 2017/18; the highest share among a sample of municipal council areas in the last three years, but only enough to build 4-6 km of tarmac Though most of the RFB funds are road, or 0.8% of the total network managed by TARURA in the allocated to maintenance activities, councilvi. on average only 50% of annual Investments in roads have decreased in some cities. Funding maintenance needs for roads available for urban transport investment in intermediate administered by Tanroads and cities, separate from TanRoads road development projects, TARURA are covered has decreased, likely due to significant changes in municipal responsibilities. Before the creation of TARURA in 2017, LGAs were responsible for building and maintaining non-trunk roads using both central government transfers and own vi Estimates based on cost of building 1 km of tarmac road by TARURA, which varies between 360 and 500 million TZS (USD$156,000 - 217,000). 77 3.2 Alternative sources of revenue them back as part of annual budgets. This indirectness makes remain untapped it hard to match available funding to needs. There are currently few sources of urban transport revenue, Additional sources of sector revenues are being explored. most of which are managed by the central government. Most Municipalities can use Strategic Projects to apply for funds of the resources for mobility are collected and allocated by from the Ministry of Finance for sector investments that can the central government. Fuel levies are managed by the RFB, directly increase revenue generation and reduce dependency while driving licenses, operation licenses, and traffic fines on the central government. For example, the funds can be used are collected at the subnational level, but transferred to the to invest in a bus station where the LGA can collect fees from national accounts before reverting to the subnational level. public transport vehicles that access it105. This approach aims to Although effective for redistribution, this makes program and encourage LGAs to become proactive in defining, documenting, project funding too variable for planning purposes, and can and presenting ideas, and has been used to build several large make resource distribution dependent on short-term political bus terminals in Dar es Salaam106. priorities. Investments in transport sector infrastructure are “lumpy,” involving significant upfront capital costs, while the Tanzania does not widely collect revenue from user fees, such benefits and (where relevant) associated revenue accrue over as tolls or land value capture. These are common sources of a long period. funding in other countries and represent a significant potential area of growth. Mwanza has launched a pilot program to collect Many sector-specific sources of income are not dedicated parking fees107. Patrons pay 1,500 Tanzanian Shillings (TZS) per funding. Funding streams such as public transport licenses, day by mobile phone, directly to the RFB. A private company fees on bus income, and traffic fines are administered at the has been contracted for enforcement. This pilot project can national level and normally return as part of regular annual be built upon to establish a parking management program in budgetary processes, but this is not guaranteed104. For example, which pricing and supply are controlled towards broader policy traffic fines are collected at the municipal level, but go directly goals while improving revenue. to the National Government account, which then transfers Table 3 Status of roads maintenance needs against available budget (Billion TZS) 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Investment needs (A) 1,554 1,561 1,586 1,838 TANROADS 775 855 999 1,199 PO—RALG/TARURA 779 706 587 639 Available budget (B) 768 818 811 749 TANROADS 520 573 568 524 TARURA 248 245 243 225 Financing Gap (C = A - B) 786 743 775 1,089 % of maintenance capacity (B/A) 49% 52% 51% 41% % of Financing gap (C/A) 51% 48% 49% 59% Source: Tanroads & TARURA 78 3.3 Funding is unpredictable, making unreliability of funds—both late and not disbursed—as a planning difficult challenge for road provision109. This funding environment impedes the implementation of an ongoing and consistent Two major sources of transport sector funding—development pipeline. partner loans and fuel prices—are unpredictable and difficult to plan for. Development partner loans account for This lack of predictability is especially damaging to between 44% and 95% of TARURA’s annual budget, with wide maintenance and operations, which are core mobility variations between years (see Table 4) and across cities. For functions. These costs are lower than those for large capital instance, in a sample of 11 cities, Moshi, Morogoro, and three projects, but are recurring, frequent, and demand reliable, other cities received funds from this source in 2018/19, but consistent funding. Unlike new investments, which can be not in 2019/20. RFB funds are less volatile across cities since scaled to the supply of funding available, maintenance and they are assigned by formula. However, funds derive from the operations are demand-linked and must be funded as a matter fuel levy and are affected by the fluctuation of international of routine. Without reliable maintenance and operational oil prices. In recent years, the RFB has also overestimated funding, infrastructure rapidly deteriorates. Capital costs often its budget, with TARURA regularly receiving up to 25% less trace their origins to smaller, neglected operational costs at than initially budgeted 108 . TanRoads specifically names the some point in the past. Table 4 Income of TARURA by source per year for the last 3 years (Billions TZS) Total USD 2017/18 2018/19 2019/20 Total TZS (millions) RFB 28 24 21 73 32 TSCP - 116 - 116 50 World UGLSP - 91 - 91 40 Bank Development Partners DMDP - 175 - 175 76 EU - 10 40 50 22 Other DFID 59 2 - 61 27 USAID - 19 3 22 10 Other - - 33 33 14 Total 87 437 97 621 270 Development Partners 68% 95% 44% 83% Contribution Source: TARURA 79 rarely on management and operations, they cannot be relied upon to promote increased attention to these areas. Public transport is a matter of operations more than infrastructure, but when portrayed in Master Plans, it appears primarily as a form of roadbuilding. The mechanisms to translate Master Plans into specific investments and implemented programs are weak. Many Master Plans have been weak influences on city development: Only 35% to 45% of the area of urban centers conforms to 4. Management and Operations previously planned land uses, and unplanned settlements are large111. Master Plans are not realistic about current trends such as expansion of unplanned settlements, and routinely 4.1 Existing tools for transport and propose implausible patterns of urbanization. They lack fine infrastructure planning are not spatial, policy, or financial details112 and neglect the question granular or specific enough of how the plans are to become reality. When it comes to transport, costs where available are high level and detached Existing planning tools have little to say about sustainable from the issue of operating and maintaining the proposed mobility. Master Plans and detailed implementation plans infrastructure. Even preliminary budgets are unavailable for are the only planning tools available in most cities, but they recommended projects, with the possible exception of specific are not enough to provide a detailed roadmap for transport roadworks. Some Master Plans, such as Morogoro, reference interventions, nor are they the right tools for many of the only budgets for the staffing of an implementation committee. key planning requirements to improve accessibility. There is space for Master Plans to incorporate mobility planning best Detailed planning instruments to enforce Master Plans are practices, but there needs to be a more specific planning not being used or are not aligned to Master Plans. Detailed process aimed at transport policy, for instance, through the planning schemes are more granular in nature and have preparation of Sustainable Urban Mobility Plans that serve higher conformity with land use—a higher share of area that as roadmaps for the sector. In addition, many fundamental exhibits the same land use as the one allocated in the plan— management and operations questions, such as signal timing than Master Plans (ranging from 50% to 94% in a sample of updates, are inappropriate for a Master Plan but nonetheless seven cities), but are available only for a few areas and usually require a formal technical policy process and periodic service developed separately from Master Plans113. In addition, there planning activities. These more focused, shorter-range are weak ongoing mechanisms of monitoring and control to planning exercises are not currently regularly conducted. verify adherence to the Master Plan. Sector-specific plans, such as Urban Transport Master Plans, have not been developed Without mobility planning tools for urban areas, the use of at the urban level in intermediate cities. TanRoads provides Master Plans as a sole instrument exacerbates biases towards the only organized transport sector-level capital investment developing land rather than improving mobility. Master planning process, which progresses from a 10-year program Plans are statements of priority and currently prioritize non- to a five-year short-range implementation plan114. However, sustainable mobility. The transport sector recommendations these plans rarely focus on projects outside of Dar es Salaam. of Master Plans are focused on investments rather than operations, and projects rather than programs. They typically There are often no provisions to translate plans into concrete focus on a list of major infrastructure investments for policies, such as project prerequisites and timelines. Master motorized vehicles, such as ring roads, fly-overs and BRTs, Plans propose broad investment targets, such as BRT corridors while providing only general notes about other public transport and network infrastructure, but these recommendations lack and NMT110. Their diagnostics focus mainly on roads and granularity or mechanisms to facilitate the formulation of motorized traffic, which biases solutions towards roadbuilding. the next level of plans or, frequently, realistic estimates of As such, they do not promote projects with positive effects on the sources and amounts of financing required115. As such, transport service performance and urban development. For Master Plans do not reliably translate into program and project example, the Master Plan for Mwanza specifies only long-term development. large infrastructure and public transport service projects, such as the construction of BRT lanes, but there are no smaller non- motorized and public transport projects, such as bikeways or bus stations. In addition, since the focus of Master Plans is 80 Arusha 4.2 Data and technical tools are needed to optimize project design and prioritization Generating better data will make possible better project design and prioritization, but mobility data on intermediate cities in Tanzania is poor. Understanding and analyzing supply- and demand-side data is key to prioritizing investments (see Without specific, systematic Box 13). Without specific, systematic measurement of the measurement of the quantity and quantity and quality of various transport modes or demand for transport, cities are forced to guess. In Tanzanian intermediate quality of various transport modes, cities, the characteristics of current travel demand, such as or demand for transport, cities are mode use, patterns, and behavior, are unknown, which limits forced to guess. the ability to invest effectively. The result is transport services and infrastructure that leave whole populations unattended, and city investments that are not achieving the highest possible returns. These negative results are exacerbated trip distribution, modal split, and network assignment), but it by the nature of travel demand in these cities, especially at is not performed in accordance with accepted standards. For extremely low-income levels, and large reliance on walking. example, the latest Mwanza Master Plan relies on a model whose output is not calibrated on existing travel demands Master Plans do not consider demand-side factors when as measured by field surveys (such as traffic counts on identifying and prioritizing recommended projects. Transport major roadways, and bus ridership on major routes). Instead, recommendations in the Master Plans do not take into models are calibrated on future travel demand characterized account demand induced by major increases in roadway qualitatively by matching the local vision for general target capacity, nor do they collect the proper information to capture land use.120 A model built to generally accepted standards may current demand. For example, they do not collect peak-hour not have supported the Master Plan as it exists. traffic counts necessary for transportation modeling. As a result, plans overestimate the benefits and underestimate Transportation planning studies are improperly specified and the significant costs of automobile-focused infrastructure. do not provide necessary travel demand information. Current Some plans are more rigorous and have used traditional efforts such as household surveys, given their sample design four-step transportation modeling (that is, trip generation, and content, are not sufficient for an adequate understanding 81 of present and future travel patterns and behavior117. Traffic studies do not currently provide necessary input for effective execution and monitoring of urban traffic management; in particular, they lack hourly detail118. Speed studies or intersection turning movement counts are not performed. This data deficiency is most severe when it comes to data for policymaking around non- motorized transport. NMT represents nearly half of all trips taken in intermediate cities, but there is no inventory or condition assessment of sidewalks, crosswalks, and bike paths, and no information on demand for NMT, including trip frequency, purpose, and origin and destination patterns. In addition, there is little understanding of the factors influencing modal choice, so it is not possible to assess the effect of different infrastructure investments on modal shift. For example, what would motivate people who currently walk to shift to motorized transport modes or to cycle? Decision-makers do not have necessary information regarding the demand, supply, and performance of public transport services in order to improve and manage bus routes. LATRA does not actively collect data on public transport except through licensing. The lack of understanding of the supply, demand, and performance of public transport services hampers better outcomes for users and providers. Except for the routes and number of licenses approved, there is no information on the quantity and quality of bus supply—the number of buses actually providing service in a route, the exact routes used, hours of operation, and frequency of service. For instance, without proper supervision on the ground, additional routes run in the city. Routes mapped for this project in Dodoma, Mwanza, Arusha, and Moshi showed that only Dodoma’s mapped routes were registered in LATRA. There is also limited information about the performance of public transport operations such as average vehicle loading, operating speeds, and average collected faresvii. Combined with the lack of onboard or platform surveys, this limits the ability to make operational decisions such as the location of bus stops and frequency of service. The lack of data on the origin and destination of trips makes it impossible to plan the service network to meet demand. There’s also not enough knowledge to set a fair fare scheme that takes into account riders’ capacity to pay, the value of their time, and service operating costs. vii The Government regulates fares; however, on occasion, drivers in oversupplied routes charge less to attract users. Box 13 Demand side data is key to effective planning and operation of transport infrastructure and services: the case of Bogota’s bike paths Bogota, Colombia’s capital city, is one of the regional leaders promoting bicycle use but this mode is far from becoming mainstream in the city. The city has built 500 km of bike paths, locally called ciclorrutas, increasing daily bicycle trips from 421 000 in 2011 to 635 000 in 2015. Measures to cope with the spread of COVID-19, including social distancing, have spurred the use of bicycles even more. However, despite large investments, cycling is far from reaching its full potential as a preferred mode: 4.1 million short- to medium-length daily trips could be completed using a bicycle instead of a car if appropriate high-quality infrastructure were in place. Data can help to identify low-hanging investments and exploit biking potential as a preferred mode. A recent study uses demand-side data to understand mobility patterns and inform infrastructure investment plans. The study uses big data—a local fitness app called Biko and data from cell towers—to identify trips that could be completed using a bicycle instead of a car, the infrastructure gaps in the ciclorrutas to tap into this bicycle use potential, and variations across neighborhoods with different socioeconomic contexts. Source: Olmos, L. E., et al. (2020). 82 There is insufficient data on the use and performance of the road network. This makes it impossible to design effective traffic management schemes or properly prioritize capacity expansion. Intersections can be effectively and safely designed and operated only with detailed volume and performance data. Lack of this data results in unnecessary delays at intersections and decreased safety, especially during peak hours when capacity is most strained by demand. Origin/destination and route information, coupled with performance data for each segment and intersection of a road network, is vital to serve overall demand. Otherwise interventions often result in merely moving bottlenecks from one location to another and underutilizing other infrastructure, while user experience (measured in, for example, travel time or trip reliability) does not improve. Year-by-year volume information is critical to anticipate future demand and challenges. However, TanRoads takes traffic counts only somewhat regularly, not at the proper level of detailviii, and only along principal roads. Detailed information regarding origin/destination patterns, specific routes, and trip-chaining behavior is limited. There are no performance indicators, such as average travel speeds or average stop delays, for either individual links/ intersections or the network as a whole, and there are no time series available to understand trends. In addition to poor data availability, there ... technical processes are used for operations is room to improve currently used technical and management activities such as public tools. Project selections transportation regulation or traffic signaling do not follow uniform, technically grounded methods, nor they are studied at the appropriate scale. For example, the feasibility study for New Selander Bridge Construction in Dar es Salaam does not present and evaluate design alternatives for the bridge, nor does it consider solutions such as improvements of other routes to resolve the existing congestion problem. In addition, the solution that is presented is incomplete because there is no explicit analysis of complementary improvements to access roads, without which the bridge will not function. Decisions as to fund capacity expansions are thus made without taking into account the functional effects on the overall network. The benefits of each project are studied in isolation from each other with no single common basis of comparison or bigger picture system- wide perspective, resulting in an incomplete analysis and potentially leading to poor investment decisions. Technical tools to prioritize maintenance are being implemented, but other decisions are not made with sufficient technical support. TanRoads and TARURA use separate but similar systems to organize road condition assessment information, identify necessary maintenance activities for each road link, and prioritize between these needs. These activities lend themselves better to programmatic planning since they involve a narrow range of routine investments. The funding and determination of road maintenance activities follows a tight formula in terms of their regional allocation and targeting of specific maintenance activities119. However, there are no other programs where similarly technical processes are used for operations and management activities such as public transportation regulation or traffic signaling120. viii They are reported as daily counts, but better traffic management would benefit from knowing peak hour/ peak direction and turning movements at intersections, classified by vehicle type and including NMT users. 83 Figure 18 Uncontrolled access from adjacent land uses is a source of turbulence and hazard for highway traffic on the road. Source: Morogoro. GoogleEarth (April 2020). 4.3 There is significant room for users and prioritize between their needs to maximize the improvement in operations to collective benefit of the transport infrastructure to all users. make more efficient use of existing For example, intersection signal timing should be set to give infrastructure preference to the crossroads, or turning movements, that have the highest volume of traffic. The allocation of available road width between motor vehicle and non-motor vehicle traffic is inequitable and inefficient. Many of the existing problems with traffic congestion are Pedestrians and cyclists constitute more than 90% of person- due to traffic management practices that are inadequate trips, yet automobiles and motorcycles crowd other users for rapidly growing intermediate cities. Some operational off the road. For pedestrians, there is no continuous network problems stem from the lack of a coherent hierarchal structure of safe, drained walkways. The meager space provided for the urban road system. Road traffic capacity and quality for sidewalks is largely occupied by street vendors. In the of traffic flow is greatly diminished by ineffective traffic intermediate cities, there is hardly any protected space along control practices. This is also affected by the lack of facilities roads for bicycles, so they have to mix with motor vehicle to accommodate pedestrians and cyclists. Both traffic flow traffic. This makes an otherwise safe, cheap, and efficient and safety suffer from insufficient police enforcement of rules mode a very risky option. For both pedestrians and cyclists, regulating moving traffic. crossing main roadways is made unnecessarily hazardous by an absence of marked, protected crosswalks. Due to the Tanzania has no effective functional hierarchy of road absence of traffic signals, during peak hours most main roads types. One of the most fundamental instruments for creating do not present enough gaps in traffic to allow non-motorized an efficient urban road network involves classifying roads users to cross safely. according to a hierarchy, whereby each level, from primary road to local street, allows progressively more access by Traffic management does not currently maximize the abutting land uses. The general planning schemes in some functional capacity and performance of the roadway. The cities, notably Mwanza, incorporate the principles of functional design of road segments and intersections, as well as the hierarchy and specify levels of access control for each category signage, signaling, and enforcement mechanisms to control of road in the recommended future system. However, the use of this infrastructure, have a direct bearing on how classification of roads used by TanRoads and TARURA does efficiently, equitably, and safely different types of vehicles and not provide the tools to best manage traffic and prioritize modes of travel share limited travel space. Traffic management investments, since they are based solely on road width rather tools should aim to minimize conflict between competing than design and operation, such as the degree of lateral access 84 Dodoma and density of designated points allowing entrance and exit. contribute to unsafe roads. Most of the deficiencies of existing Currently, intermediate cities have no effective “primary” traffic control arrangements, especially the insufficient number roads because of conflicts with cross traffic, vehicles entering/ of static and dynamic traffic control devices, as well as the need leaving roadsides, and through traffic. for more comprehensive standards to guide their deployment and signal timing, are well understood by the responsible Ring roads with little lateral access control are limited in agencies. In the larger intermediate cities, because there are their capacity to effectively separate regional traffic from so few signals, traffic police perform manual traffic control local traffic121. As an example, consider the aerial photo of a during peak periods, occupying personnel that are needed for portion of Dar es Salaam Road in Morogoro (Figure 18). This traffic enforcement and public transport regulation. Tanzania was originally built as a bypass along the northern boundary has adopted a standard for traffic signs and markings122, but of the Morogoro council planning area and away from the this is limited to specifications of appearance and dimensions urban area. The road has since been engulfed by the city, with for installation and does not provide standards for where these densely populated districts depending on the highway as their devices should be installed. The Urban Planning Act of 2007 only connection to the city, but without collector roads or includes design rules for urban roads that is limited to the proper signaling—inhibiting the road’s usefulness as a bypass. required width of road reservation for several classes of road. Some work has been done to develop standards for design Failing to design for diverse road uses results in midblock of typical cross-sections allocating reservation width among interference, such as between traffic flow, public transport motor vehicles, pedestrians, cyclists, and drains, but there are operations, and on-street parking. As pointed out earlier, bus no standards for efficient configuration of intersections. stops are inadequate in number and length, resulting in fierce competition among daladala drivers and double and triple In addition, the police do not have sufficient resources to parking, excessive dwell time, and queue-jumping that creates enforce traffic laws effectively. There are not enough officers, lane blockages for general traffic. Much of the on-street and their mobility is severely restricted by a lack of vehicles. parking in the central areas of these cities is perpendicular, so With few traffic signals, police must manually direct traffic that vehicles entering and exiting spaces, even ones nominally during peak hours. This diverts officers from the essential beyond the road reservation, effectively block traffic in both activity of enforcing compliance with traffic rules. Effective directions. detection and prevention of moving violations requires police to be mobile, but there are few vehicles available. For example, Weak traffic controls, inadequate intersection design, Dodoma traffic police have only two patrol cars and four and unprotected paths for non-motorized transport users motorbikes123. 85 Weak traffic controls, inadequate intersection design, and unprotected paths for non-motorized transport users contribute to unsafe roads. Traffic accidents are major source of concern in the intermediate cities, but safety initiatives have so far been ineffective in containing the increasing number and severity of accidents. Along with inadequate road design, inability to enforce moving violations is a major cause of poor road safety. For instance, 80% of daladala accidents are attributed to driver error, including reckless and aggressive driving, which police already have the mandate and legal tools (but not capacity) to prevent124. The starting point for any traffic safety program is accumulation of evidence in the form of carefully prepared accident reports, organized in an accessible information system. However, given the labor-intensive nature of this work, police are unable to document most accidents. For example, the WHO estimates that the official total number of accidents in Tanzania undercounts the reality by a factor of five125. Without a better coverage rate, the database cannot support meaningful analysis and diagnosis. In short, Tanzanian intermediate cities have great room for improvement to make their transport systems more accessible, efficient, safe, and green, while diverting from a path of auto-dependence. The current strategic vision, though aware of the need to promote sustainable mobility, needs to better align priorities, targets, and initiatives towards this goal. Urban transport institutional responsibilities are weak and usually blurred with rural or interregional approaches, undermining policies that respond to the specificities of urban mobility needs. Budgets are constrained and unpredictable, but there are potential new sources of income. Better planning and enforcement, data-driven policies, and improved traffic management can make more efficient use of current infrastructure, resources, and future investments. The next chapter recommends policy interventions to lead sustainable mobility development in Tanzanian intermediate cities. 03 A Plan for Better Urban Transport Tanzania needs a new approach to urban mobility in its intermediate cities. Until a few years ago, the urban transportation strategy for intermediate cities represented a reasonable choice of action, given the low travel demand. This strategy consisted of treating intermediate cities as small agricultural centers or “dry ports” for trade. However, as cities grow in population and size and travel demand increases, this policy strategy will not be enough to make mobility systems inclusive, efficient, safe, and green (see Chapter 1). What is needed is a paradigm shift that focuses on what cities are becoming: medium and large conurbations, with correspondingly urban needs. The principles of sustainable urban mobility, which are increasingly recognized but not yet implemented in Tanzania’s transport policy, offer a path to dramatically improving transport in intermediate cities. Morogoro 87 Current policies around urban transport are exacerbating the mobility challenges that intermediate cities face today. In recent years, the government, responding to the needs of motorists and land developers, has channeled investments to expand the road system outside of already-settled areas, while investments allocated to NMT uses are minimal. The sprawl induced by these policies will only lead to a cycle of car dependence, undermining access to opportunities. On the current trajectory, it will be increasingly difficult to arrest the deterioration of urban transportation, options will become more and more limited, and these cities will soon face the same challenges that Dar es Salaam faces today. These urban mobility challenges are not unique to Tanzania. Many cities have risked being trapped in a cycle of car dependence and sprawl but have taken different paths of action. Some governments have managed to make major changes to their approach to urban transport in good time, contributing to sustainable, livable, and economically vibrant cities. A key example is Kigali, Rwanda, where there have been successful efforts to improve public transport and strengthen administration when the city is still at a manageable size (see Box 14). Other cities have failed to do so, and their transport systems have had to be retrofitted at much greater expense; examples include Dar es Salaam, Nairobi, and Lagos, all of which are facing the much greater challenge of changing entrenched patterns of urban development. In Tanzania, some initiatives are headed in the right direction, but these are just first steps to what is needed. The establishment of the RFB has been fundamental to secure minimum, dedicated funding for the maintenance of the roadway network. The use of the District Road Management System (DROMAS), an administration system to guide the identification and selection of road maintenance interventions, strengthens data-driven prioritization processes optimizing the use of available resources. From a planning perspective, the Urban Planning Act of Box 14 Progress in urban transport in Kigali, Rwanda Kigali is a mid-sized city of 1.3m people, that is growing at a similar rate to Tanzania’s intermediate cities: 4 percent per annum. It similarly has a comparable modal split to these cities: 56 percent travel by foot or bicycle, 20 percent by bus, and 12 percent by moto-taxi. Nevertheless public transport is in short supply, private car use is growing, and congestion is already a challenge. Kigali therefore faces a similar set of current and future challenges: how to sustainably manage urban growth, and divert growing demand from private vehicles towards more sustainable modes of transport. In the absence of action, Kigali will become increasingly congested and unsustainable, and its population and economy will suffer. The governments of Kigali and Rwanda have responded to this challenge. The Kigali Master Plan (2013) promotes densification, mixed land use, transit-oriented development, pedestrianization, and the rollout of mass transit. To accomplish this, Rwanda is undertaking a World Bank-supported programme of institutional development and capacity building. The City of Kigali has already undertaken a restructuring of the existing public transport system; this and further reforms—including a city-wide origin-destination survey—are laying the groundwork for a BRT system. Plans for a network of non-motorised transport infrastructure, including reclaiming streets from cars, would position Kigali as a regional leader in people-centred urbanism. The Master Plan is also in the process of being updated to reflect the latest thinking in sustainable transport and urban development. Although in early stages, Kigali is being proactive in preparing for a future of population and economic growth. These initiatives will let it get ahead of its challenges, and avoid having to retrofit later on at much greater expense. Source: City of Kigali (2019). 88 2007 created a framework for developing and updating urban master plans, a stepping-stone for developing a sustainable mobility plan. These changes alone will not be enough. Tanzania has a narrow window of opportunity to shift the mobility paradigm of its intermediate cities. Although cities are starting from a low base of motorization, rapid population and economic growth, paired with low-density development, are quickly increasing car dependence. In parallel, as discussed in Chapter 2, the strategic vision favors private cars instead of people, governance and financial improvements are both too slow to provide the financial and administrative resources to meet this challenge, and there is room to improve the efficiency of expenditure by strengthening data-driven decision-making and adherence to plans and operations. A rapid course correction is needed. To take advantage of this window of opportunity, Tanzania must adopt a range of interventions aligned around a single, unified strategy. This chapter outlines such a strategy, using the established principles of sustainable urban mobility as a framework. It then presents a set of recommendations that, taken together, will put Tanzanian cities on a clear path towards sustainable urban mobility. Finally, it lays out a National Program to Support Sustainable Urban Mobility in Tanzania, which will equip the GoT to drive change in intermediate cities. Morogoro 89 1. Sustainable Mobility as a Guiding Principle By shifting the mobility paradigm from a car-centric to a more sustainable people-centric approach, Tanzania will lead the development of its intermediate cities to be more inclusive, productive, and efficient in the use of available resources. This shift in paradigm will require a new understanding of the priorities and targets of sustainable mobility. Embracing the principles of people-centered sustainable mobility is a required first step for better transport in intermediate cities in Tanzania. Sustainability is ensured by aiming for126: ••Universal access, embracing all modes of travel, population income levels, ages, abilities, and genders, as well as all stages of a trip ••Effectiveness and cost efficiency, ensuring that infrastructure serves the population equitably, can be properly maintained, and is effectively managed to use space well ••Safety, facilitating sharing of space between all transportation users while minimizing risks to human life ••Resource efficiency and climate resilience, involving low energy and resource use, minimal pollution, and security against climate risk In the new mobility paradigm, accessibility—not road connectivity—is the primary goal. Building more infrastructure does not guarantee that people can reach jobs and amenities in a reasonable amount of time. A city can have high connectivity and yet poor access for its citizens when, for example, a new road is built but traveling for some is still unaffordable, transit is stuck in traffic, bus frequencies are low, or sustainable modes are not accommodated. Targeting accessibility—the ease of reaching various desirable destinations or activities in a given time127— instead of connectivity guarantees that policies are directed towards improving urban residents’ access to opportunities (including jobs and amenities) for a given amount of time, effort, and cost (see Chapter 1). These policies usually go hand-in-hand with improved land use and better distribution of services. Similarly, prioritizing people instead of private motor vehicles will allow mobility policies to more effectively contribute to the targets of sustainable mobility. The traditional approach of transportation engineering has been to provide expanded capacity to move people and goods between origins and destinations, following the natural trends of urban expansion and increasing motorization. This approach is limited in its methods and ultimately in its benefits, because it focuses on private vehicles as the means for people and goods to get from one place to another. This results in unbalanced projects and policies that are neither equitable nor sustainable. The focus of transport policy must expand from uniquely considering road building to include more efficient use of existing roads. Motor vehicles require large amounts of urban space: 140m2 per passenger, compared to 5m2 for a bicycle and 2m2 for a pedestrian128. Today it is well understood globally that cities cannot build their way out of congestion: adding new road capacity induces greater demand for roads, maintaining a similar level of congestion129. Instead, it is critical to manage travel demand to reduce inefficient patterns and modes of travel; improve the operation of existing infrastructure to optimize performance; and offer alternative high- efficiency modes such as walking, cycling, and public transport. Shifting the paradigm also means changing key measures of performance of transport. Under a people-centric sustainable transport approach, the traditional engineering goal of maximizing vehicle traffic flow has to shift towards maximizing accessibility across all segments of the 90 population. Accessibility considers the needs of a much broader cross-section of the population, not just private drivers. Increasing traffic speeds almost always has a smaller effect on overall accessibility than densification, improved public transport services, and better NMT infrastructure. In general, non-motorized transport is better than public transport, public transport is better than private motorized transport, and land use is key to better transport. Although cities vary in their socio-demographic, economic, and land-use characteristics, the fundamentals of mobility have a common basis. The technical, engineering, and economic characteristics of different transport modes, the fundamental geometry of urban space (see Box 15), and the resource constraints are similar everywhere. In recent years, there has been a dramatic improvement of the understanding of the externalities and long-term effects of using different transport modes, and the complementarities between land and transport policies in cities. The use of NMT not only reduces the carbon footprint of cities; coupled with land-use policies, it promotes agglomeration economies for thriving businesses and also improves access to amenities and jobs at lower monetary and time costs of transportation, for a better quality of life for all. Nevertheless, sustainable mobility is not a one-size-fits-all agenda, and interventions should be properly differentiated across cities. Intermediate cities in Tanzania can vary by their growth trajectory, level of congestion, size (i.e., population, growth rate, density), local capacity, local policy ambition, identity and main function (e.g., commerce, industry, tourism), level of awareness of sustainable mobility, and local funding capacity, all of which are important considerations for how the general principles of sustainable mobility are to be implemented locally. Recognizing that cities face different mobility challenges, Annex B provides a deep dive of the state of mobility in Mwanza and Dodoma. Moshi 91 Box 15 Transport and the geometry of urban space Car | 50km/h | 1 passenger Car | parked Tram | 50 passengers Cyclist 140m2 20m2 Bicycle | Parked 7m2 5m2 0.5m2 2m2 2m2 Cities are by nature space constrained. The benefits of density for individuals, businesses, and government are limited by the amount of space that is available Pedestrian | to provide and service those benefits. Successful cities are extremely space Standing efficient: they build at high densities to maximize usable space; mix land uses to limit the amount of space needed for transport services; and build transport systems that are as space efficient as possible. Traveling by foot requires less space—2m2—than almost any other mode. Pedestrian | Cycling requires a little more, at 5m2, but is much more efficient and can cover Walking larger distances. A private car, by contrast, requires 140m2. This is why the foundation of any sustainable public transport system has to be high space- efficiency modes such as walking, cycling, and public transport. Relying on cars instead requires so much space that more and more urban space has to be turned over to transport, with less and less available for the actual benefits of the city. Image source: SWECO 2018. Data from the Municipality of Amsterdam. 92 2. Designing an Intervention Program Cities can choose their course of action, but cannot afford to do nothing. A comprehensive, ambitious package of interventions is both necessary and urgent. To shift the mobility paradigm of intermediate cities, interventions should respond to the four areas of mobility challenges: strategic vision, governance, finance, and management. To allow different levels of effort and impact, recommendations are divided in three categories: “No Regrets” interventions will build a solid foundation for further action, without major downsides. They are characterized by being comparatively easy and cheap to undertake, with benefits that are at least proportional to their level of effort. “Catching Up” interventions build upon the solid foundation created by “No Regrets” and form a deliberate and intensifying progression of commitment. They often involve the mandatory incorporation of sustainable mobility in decision-making. “Becoming a Champion” interventions represent a dramatic effort to bring about major change through bold actions aimed at significant and lasting positive effects on accessibility, ultimately causing the world at large to take notice and learn from this experience. Becoming a champion involves making the principles of sustainable mobility binding in all relevant decisions. Both national and subnational governments have their roles to play in designing and implementing policies to tackle the mobility challenges of intermediate cities. The GoT can create the legal, financial, and institutional enabling environment for sustainable urban mobility at the local level. Local governments, meanwhile, are best placed to understand the differentiated needs of each city and implement policies to move forward the agenda. One way to approach the task of improving sustainable urban mobility in intermediate cities is through a National Program to Support Sustainable Urban Mobility. An example of such a program is described in Section IV below. However, the recommendations that follow are designed to work, together or alone, as part of or without such a national program, to improve the situation of Tanzania’s intermediate cities. Annex A delves further into these recommendations and gives a menu of suggested interventions for each of the four main areas of mobility challenges. In addition to Section 5, Annex A expands on gender-inclusion solutions for each area, given their relevance to achieving the sustainable mobility agenda and its cross-cutting character. The main objective is to adopt a bold transformative vision for sustainable mobility 93 3. Recommendations and services for all residents, so that there is reduced need to travel on a daily basis. One ambitious version of this is 3.1 Set a new strategic vision for urban the “15-minute city,” which attempts to bring, to the extent transport possible, sufficient jobs and amenities to within 15 minutes’ travel of every resident of the city132. This is preferable in almost every way to low-density sprawl, which requires people to Shifting the strategic vision is key to incorporate the travel long distances for work, school, healthcare, and leisure. sustainable mobility guiding principles into Tanzanian Such travel would be unnecessary with a more efficient urban urban mobility policy. The main objective is to adopt a bold form. transformative vision for sustainable mobility that is focused on people rather than private cars, and emphasizing equitable, Shifting demand from less to more efficient modes involves efficient, inclusive, and cost-effective modes of transport. This improving the attractiveness and availability of high- vision should be clear and purposeful, and intended to unite efficiency modes such as non-motorized and public transport. the broadest possible cross-section of government and civil Not all demand for transport can or should be avoided; that society behind its mission. which remains should be serviced by modes that make best use of scarce urban space and natural resources. High-quality The ASI framework can provide intermediate objectives to pedestrian and cycle infrastructure can work with supportive align the targets and priorities of Tanzanian policies with land use to serve users over short to medium distances, and the sustainable mobility guiding principles. This approach public transport can effectively serve longer trips with high emphasizes avoiding unnecessary travel, shifting necessary efficiency. Although private motorized transport is currently travel to more sustainable modes, and improving all modes in a small share of trips in Tanzania’s intermediate cities, it is their sustainability, efficient, and operations130,131. If followed, this approach promises to achieve the principles of sustainable nonetheless in increasing demand due to the urban form; what urban mobility. Each ASI step contributes to universal access needs “shifting” is, therefore, demand in the near future. by directly improving accessibility, effectiveness, and cost Improving non-motorized transport infrastructure, and public efficiency; reducing inefficient modes; improving safety transport infrastructure and operations is key to supporting by shifting resources and urban space to more vulnerable this shift in demand. This is especially true with the ridership commuters; and improving resource efficiency and climate income profile seen in Tanzania’s intermediate cities: it is likely resilience by reducing highly polluting, resource-intensive that many more people would take public transport if it were travel modes and shortening distances travelled. more affordable and designed around their accessibility needs. Avoiding unnecessary travel primarily involves bringing Similarly, poor commuters who are likely to continue moving people, jobs, and essential services close together in the by foot would benefit enormously from better pedestrian city. A key way to accomplish this is through mixed-use infrastructure, or make the relatively low-cost shift to bicycling densification: a dense, well-serviced neighborhood can offer if the infrastructure were in place. Box 16 provides details abundant residential space, jobs for all of its working residents, about Ethiopia’s ambitious strategy for NMT. 1 Set a new strategic vision for urban transport Becoming A Champion: Catching Up: Institutionalize and prioritize sustainable urban mobility in No Regrets: Formalize sustainable urban all urban transport planning mobility principles within Increase awareness national transport policy and knowledge among policymakers 94 Dodoma Box 16 Best practice in Sustainable Urban Mobility in Ethiopia Ethiopian cities face a set of challenges that will be familiar to Tanzania: rapidly growing urban population and motorization, modal dominance of NMT (especially walking and for low-income groups), and car-centered transport planning with minimal supportive infrastructure for either walking or cycling. To tackle these challenges, in 2020, the Government of Ethiopia adopted an ambitious and far-reaching NMT strategy, designed to shape transport policy for the decade to come. It drew on the four principles of sustainable mobility to set a clear vision: “Ethiopian cities and rural centers will provide safe, efficient, and accessible walking and cycling networks to improve mobility for all residents, enhance access to opportunities, and facilitate inclusive urbanization.” This strategy is a clear example of a best practice in the field. The strategy tackles not just transport infrastructure but also operations and even land use, and clearly demarcates implementation and institutional responsibilities. Importantly, this vision is concrete and backed up by clear goals for NMT (Table Box 16.1.) and initiatives (Table Box 16.2.), with associated actions and measurable targets. 95 Box 16 Cont. Best practice in Sustainable Urban Mobility in Ethiopia Table Box 16.1: Ten-year goals for an improved NMT environment in Ethiopian cities and rural centers Goal Contributing Actions 10-Year targets ••Public transport and paratransit ••Investments in high-quality walking Increased mode share constitute 80% of all motorized trips and cycling facilities of walking, cycling, and ••Modal share of NMT remains at or ••Improved last-mile connectivity to public transport above 60% of trips public transport ••Women constitute 50% of cyclists ••Measures to manage/control private ••Vehicle kilometers traveled by Reduction in the use of vehicle use personal motor vehicles are no more personal motor vehicles ••Improved attractiveness of than 2020 levels sustainable modes ••Safe crossings, improved ••Fatalities of pedestrians and cyclists Improved road safety intersections, and dedicated facilities are reduced by 80% below 2019 levels for NMT •• WHO ambient air quality norms are ••Increased investments in high- met 350 days a year quality walking and cycling facilities Improved air quality ••Greenhouse gas emissions follow ••Measures to control private vehicle the overall targets set in Ethiopia’s use in place Nationally Determined Contribution Table Box 16.2: Implementation targets for cities with a population of 50,000 and above. Initiative 5-year target 10-year target Footpaths 1.5km per 10,000 population 3 km per 10,000 population Cycle tracks 1 km per 10,000 population 2 km per 10,000 population Traffic calming measures on 50% of Traffic calming measures on 100% of Traffic calming streets ≤ 12 m wide streets ≤ 12 m wide All new road project incorporates All footpaths and road crossings Universal access universal access provisions accessible to persons with disabilities Bicycle rental 10 rental cycles per 10,000 population 20 rental cycles per 10,000 population The largest dimension of blocks in all new Land use - developments to be 150 m or less Spend 1% of the city’s transport budget on Spend 1% of the city’s transport budget on Outreach & campaigns to create awareness among campaigns to create awareness among communication citizens and policy makers until at least citizens and policy makers 75% of the goals are achieved Source: : Ministry of Transport of Ethiopia (2020). 96 3.2 Improve urban transport governance Urban transport governance needs to be transparent, accountable, inclusive, and supported by solid human resources and formal coordinating mechanisms; it must also be fit-for-purpose to drive a sustainable transport agenda. Urban transport is fundamentally different from rural transport. Tanzania’s intermediate cities are currently treated effectively like rural areas for the purposes of transport, despite their very different needs. They need institutions that are responsive to the specific problems of urban transport and equipped to implement specific relevant solutions (see best practices in transport governance in Box 17). Institutions focused on road building will never meet the major needs of urban areas. Roads of any quality and quantity are only a relatively small part of the mix of solutions for sustainable urban mobility. Dar es Salaam is belatedly moving its transport system to an institution focused on its specific Arusha needs; intermediate cities have the chance to get a head start on that same process. Transport decision-making needs to be coordinated and on a long-term basis, not just consultants to design projects. integrated on a routine basis, both among institutions of A high level of internal capacity is required to reliably run an transport governance but also with institutions dealing with urban transport system, capacity that should be extended land use, urban planning, and non-transport infrastructure. and developed through close involvement with all aspects of Coordination between levels of government, across sectors, the system from planning to implementation to regulation to among agencies focused on different modes of transport or monitoring and evaluation. varying functions within the same mode, and between agencies performing similar functions must be mandated, legislated, Involvement of stakeholder groups (e.g., users, civil and made routine. Only then can each agency consistently play society) can improve both the planning of transportation its proper role within the decision-making process, bringing sector interventions and their implementation. Enabling to bear its technical capacities to complement those of other participation of those affected by a particular project or policy agencies/levels. introduces different perspectives on the problem, which improves the chance of finding the best solution. In addition, Within institutions, career technical staff with the appropriate this participation, if managed properly, can result in the awareness, abilities, and experience are critical to planning, building of support and consensus around solutions, producing implementing, and managing mobility infrastructure. advocates for change to offset opposition from entrenched Transport is a technical field and requires technical expertise interests in the status quo. 2 Improve urban Becoming A Champion: transport governance Catching Up: Establish dedicated urban mobility institutions with a No Regrets: Formalize links between high level of internal capacity institutions and create specific Align and coordinate across urban mobility units within existing transport and urban institutions for pipeline of governance institutions urban projects 97 Box 17 Best practices in transport governance 1. Singapore Land Transport Authority (LTA) In 1995 for public entities, the Registry of Vehicles, Mass Rapid Transit Corporation, the Roads and Transportation Division of the Public Works Department, and the Land Transportation Division of the Ministry of Communications were merged to form the Land Transport Authority. Before that public infrastructure was managed by the Public Works Department, including the building of highway infrastructure. The increased scale and complexity of transportation planning warranted the creation of a new unified entity. The LTA enjoys significant autonomy due to the fact that it is financially self-sustaining, receiving significant ongoing revenues from land development initiatives. This autonomy has allowed them to develop their own clear consistent values and mission and ensure that these carry through activities involving all transportation modes and functions. The unification of planning, design and execution of works in so many diverse areas ensures proper coordination between expertise and stages of the project development process, as well as cross fertilization between these groups of people, each lending different perspectives toward solution at the most appropriate times. They periodically update sector Master Plans whose determinations are binding with respect to the design and prioritization of interventions focusing on each mode of travel or sector function. 2. Transportation Sector Governance in France The governance framework for the transport sector in France is designed centrally and benefits from a large contingent of qualified long-term public servants, which contribute to effective and efficient decision-making with respect to projects and policies. The dynamics and processes defining interaction between levels of government, as well as the associated roles and responsibilities of each level, are clear and consistent, leading to predictable and effective coordination. Decision- making practices follow certain procedures, making it understood which decisions can and should be made at which level of government. With respect to human resources, transport sector professionals follow well-defined and rationally assembled career tracks. They are moved deliberately from post to post as their careers are managed centrally for the purpose of developing their skills and experience to best serve a particular function within the institutional framework. They are systematically trained both in terms of technical expertise and specialized administrative knowledge needed to fulfill their assigned role. Finally, there is a strong culture of valued and admired public servants which attracts high-quality people to dedicate large parts of their career to these efforts. Source: Singapore Land Transportation Authority, https://www.lta.gov.sg/content/ltagov/en.html; Dupuy and Thoenig (1979); Leheis (2007). Image Source: Raffles Place, Singapore. Jeremy Kwok, < https://unsplash.com/photos/ZWHsqzdGnVQ>. 98 3.3 Strengthen urban transport finance Box 18 A key element of sustainability is financial sustainability. Good transport governance and operations must be reliably Best Practices in transport financing: funded into the future, and less vulnerable to sudden drops in Tanzania’s Road Fund Board core funding. Tanzania itself offers an excellent example of a Local sources of funding should be explored to alleviate transport-financing model that can be built upon. pressure on the central government and increase The second-generation roads fund shows that sector predictability of transport funding. These can include public revenues can be ring-fenced to provide a sustainable transport licensing fees, ticket revenues, parking charges, and source of finance. so on. These funds should be ring-fenced within local transport institutions to encourage an integrated, systemic approach to From a base of very poor roads, Tanzania established transport and maintain predictable levels of funding. its second-generation road fund in 2000 under the management of a RFB. The board allocates its funds User and beneficiary fees can make these funding streams between the various institutions responsible for road more predictable, ensure that they are properly scaled to building and maintenance, and 90% of the funds must be their purpose, and secure sustainable user support. For used for maintenance and emergency repair. example, collecting parking charges ensure scalability as revenues grow when more vehicles are circulating, and can “The key advantage of the new system is the generation improve user support if these revenues are used in benefit of and allocation of funding to specifically maintain existing the users, for example, to maintain roads. By focusing sector assets […] an area which had hitherto been neglected in income sources on specific purposes, resistance is reduced to favor of new infrastructure.” (Braüninger et al. 2012, p46) these fees because people see identifiable and good causes for their collection133. This makes it more politically palatable Good practice in road funds include: to make such charges. Tanzania already has experience in this a. Fuel levies set at a sufficient level; not too low area through the work of the RFB (see Box 18). b. User representation at board level c. Direct transfer of revenue from point of Fees and funding sources should be developed not just for collection to the fund their revenue-raising potential, but also for their social and d. Legal autonomy economic effects. Fuel taxes and other motorized modes- e. Clear rules for revenue allocation related sources of income can be important drivers of modal f. Allocation according to systematic economic shift from private cars to public transport, especially when analysis matched with public transport subsidies. Like all systems of taxation and subsidy, transport revenue flows should be The road fund model has potential for expansion and designed to support the overall aims of the policy. reorientation from road building to more sustainable modes of transport infrastructure. Sources: Braüninger et al. (2012); Foster and Briceno- Garmendia (2010). 3 Strengthen urban transport finance Becoming A Champion: Catching Up: Secure and diversify sufficient, predictable revenue for No Regrets: Ring-fence sector resources sustainable urban mobility and target most cost-effective, Improve efficiency of existing people-centered mobility expenditure and revenue interventions collection 99 3.4 Improve transport management and do chained trips (home-school-market-job-home), while men operations tend to do one-stop trips (home-job-home). On the other hand, children, disabled, and the elderly require particular High-quality transport data is a prerequisite for cost-effective infrastructure features to travel comfortably and safely or be and impactful decisions. Data is needed on current supply able to travel at all. In addition, demand for all available modes and demand, infrastructure and operations performance, and of transport, including bajajs and bodabodas, need to be part changes in transport patterns. Demand-side data is particularly of the diagnostic. Addressing differences in travel demand will important, since without it interventions are designed only by allow planning for transport services and infrastructure that guessing as to the needs of urban residents, or by responding better serve the needs of households as a whole. Eventually, primarily to the loudest voices. these can even allow for differentiated fares and services to better meet the entire city’s needs. Data collection is a central part—not a project, but an ongoing process134—of routine transport management, A more effective, sustainable urban mobility system requires although particular efforts are needed from time to time. extending and building on the effectiveness of the informal The data collection system should be sustainable technically, transit sector. Formalization can be challenging, but if done administratively, and financially. The agencies involved should with care and in a participatory and incremental manner, can dedicate appropriate financial and human resources and set up gain the support of operators while improving services and formal internal and external coordination processes to support outcomes. The overall goal is safe, regular, affordable public the necessary data-collection activities. Data-collection transport that meets the needs of its riders and improves activities should be improved and intensified gradually but accessibility in the city. steadily, so that financial and administrative capacity can grow to meet the demands of the process. Box 19 shows examples Building on a base of better data, formalization can improve of best practices in data collection and analysis. transport services for both riders and operators. High-quality travel demand data can help operators run more regular, reliable This increased base of transport data should be used to focus routes while reducing risk of poor ridership. Improving ticketing management, operations, and investment on high-impact can allow for transfers and improve the overall efficiency of interventions for sustainable mobility. A more granular the system. Eventually, formalization lays the groundwork for understanding of urban transport needs can allow for better- carefully designed subsidies that allow operators to run more targeted interventions and more proactive management and economically while reducing fares for riders. regulation. New but widely available technology can be used to improve the quality and efficiency of data collection (i.e. Similarly, an improved approach to road-based transport satellite imagery, automatic vehicle locator [AVL], sensors and can be rolled out incrementally to support wider objectives, intelligent transport systems). including road safety. This includes revising design standards and retrofitting roads for a broader cross-section of users, To achieve accessibility for all, data collection should including pedestrians and public transport operators; improving differentiate commuting patterns by user types and transport intersections and traffic management to focus on safety and mode. Data collected should differentiate commuting needs harm minimization; enforcing traffic laws; and establishing across gender and age. On average, women and men have new hierarchies of road users that are not biased towards very different travel demands; for example, women tend to private drivers. 4 Improve transport management and operations Becoming A Champion: Catching Up: Anticipate future urban mobility needs and proactively No Regrets: Actively manage infrastructure design infrastructure and and mobility in the city operations accordingly Effectively gather and analyze data to understand urban mobility patterns and needs 100 Box 19 Best practices in transport data Mwanza Using Mobile Phone Data in Africa A recent study in Dakar, Senegal used mobile phone location information as a proxy for travel demand towards understanding whether existing transport services adequately served it. The data collected from a large mobile phone operator was compared with public transport service information. It showed that only 25% of trips taken in the urban area were covered by motorized transport services. It highlighted neighborhoods that were extremely underserved. This information helped policymakers improve the locations and arrangement of both existing and new routes of public transport through better knowledge of where people are and where they need to go. Location data from 500,000 phones was analyzed in Abidjan, Ivory Coast. Any personal information was removed from the data. A model was built using this data that called for the installment of two new bus routes and significant changes in the third towards improving the performance of the city’s public transport system. Public Transport Smartcard Information in Buenos, Argentina The Planning Department of the Ministry of transport in Argentina partnered with the World Bank and several private companies to create a tool to develop origin destination matrices from public transport smartcards, as well as use a smart phone app to implement dynamic mobility surveys to engage citizens and receive opinions/feedback from them. This tool was useful in updating the transportation model for the metropolitan area of Buenos Aires. It also helped assess the impact of the integrated fare system, evaluate the benefits of a project connecting all main commuter rail lines, and effectively complemented a traditional mobility survey. The implementation of new technology was not a quick and easy result and required specific skills and knowledge that were not traditionally available. Since the government does not have the technical capacity with respect to these technologies they partnered with specialized private firms. The ultimate success of the venture was due to the creation of a specific institutional home within the Ministry that brought together people with different profiles and coordinated with other agencies. Source: Williams (2013); Carney (2013); Peralta-Quiros and Arias (2018). Image Source: Mwanza. Maxar satellite images at a 30cm pan-sharpened resolution. 101 4. A National Program to Support Sustainable Urban Mobility in Tanzania Although sustainable urban mobility necessarily involves multiple institutions across levels of government, and specifically local or metropolitan urban institutions, the GoT has a key role to play. The GoT is the only institution that is able to create the legal, financial, and institutional enabling environment for implementation of sustainable urban mobility by local governments and other implementing agencies. By effectively differentiating urban mobility from other areas of transport policy, the GoT can create room for much-needed improvements in this vital sector. It also has a key role in setting minimum standards and conducting oversight for all programs of implementation. For maximum effect across Tanzania, the GoT must take A policy is only as good as the delivery chain the lead on institutionalizing sustainable urban mobility, even that implements it. if much of the implementation happens at local levels. There is a need and an opportunity for a national program that tackles the four pillars of improved sustainable urban mobility: strategic vision, governance, finance, and management. This program involves financing and incentivizing the creation and implementation of SUMPs in Tanzania’s intermediate cities, which can in turn be used to guide ambitious programs of reform and investment. The key components of such a national program includes: effective overarching policy; appropriate instruments and levels of finance; supportive institutional arrangements; and monitoring and oversight structures. The national program to support sustainable urban mobility should be implemented in three main steps: Step 1. Formulate a comprehensive and coherent policy for urban transport at the national level and provide the institutional set-up and mechanisms for its implementation The design and implementation of sustainable urban mobility policies at the local level must be rooted in a comprehensive and coherent policy for urban transport at the national level. Most urban transport programs across the world are supported on national policies, promoted at the national level, which usually set targets, priorities, and a roadmap to implement mobility policies at the urban level (see Box 20). In Tanzania, the national policy should enshrine the principles of sustainable urban mobility and provide a roadmap for all financial, administrative, and human resources to be dedicated at the most effective, efficient, and equitable approaches to urban mobility. Once a national transport policy is in place, the focus must be on robust mechanisms to ensure its wide and effective implementation. A policy is only as good as the delivery chain that implements it, and cannot afford to neglect that delivery chain. Securing funds, human resources, and management tools for the implementation of a National Urban Transport Program is key to translating plans into effective policy. The GoT can offer funding at the local level for urban transport reform and investment, conditional on the local prerequisites being in place for effective implementation. Most importantly, decentralized transport-related agencies (i.e., TARURA and LATRA) should be reconfigured to meet urban transport demands. Funding from the national government should be available to support local processes of reform on a sliding scale, with most initiatives being at least partially co-financed at the local 102 Box 20 Key features of various national programmes for the support of urban transport United States The Unites States has no overarching national transport policy; nevertheless, there is a programme of support offered by the Department of Transportation for urban mobility. To receive funds all conurbations of greater than 50 000 people are required to form a Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) governed jointly by all relevant subnational governments and local transport agencies. Continued funding is dependent on meeting performance targets, but MPOs have flexibility in how they implement their plans, including redirecting road funding towards public transport. Multimodal projects are generally prioritized. India The Indian Ministry of Urban Development implements the National Urban Transport Policy, as part of a broader programme of funding for urban infrastructure. Cities are encouraged to establish metropolitan transport agencies. The program favours investments that are integrated with other urban infrastructure such as electricity or water. It is broadly technology- neutral, apart from incentives for cleaner technologies. There are incentives for multimodal integration and specific policy considerations for non-motorised transport. All cities receiving funds are required to improve parking management. United Kingdom The UK’s Department of Transport, under the “Future of Urban Transport” program, requires local authorities to create local transport plans consistent with the goals of the policy. The six major metropolitan areas each created Integrated Transport Agencies (ITAs) to coordinate among municipalities. The program directs that congestion be addressed using travel demand management; public transport improvements; better road management. Congestion charges are to be implemented where possible; otherwise pedestrian and bicycle infrastructure, car sharing, and other measures are to be used. Transport planning must be integrated with land use planning. Colombia Colombia’s Ministry of Transport oversees the Integrated Systems of Mass Transport (SITM) program. This BRT-only program requires all cities of over 600 000 people to create local transport authorities, on whose boards the national government is represented. The program favours the creation of Public-Private Partnerships, in which existing transport operators are offered automatic participation and incentivised to join. Although implementation is required to consider social and environmental issues, the program neglects private car demand management and non-motorised transport. Source: Adapted from Ochoa, Catalina (2013) Comparative analysis of National Urban Transport Policies: Input for White Paper of Urban Transport Policy in Mexico Image Sources: Washington DC, USA. Toby Yang, < https://unsplash.com/photos/FDgLnWG7we0 >. Wadgaon, India. NEOSIAM, < https://www.pexels.com/photo/selective-focus-photography-of-child-on-bus-618116/ >. London, UK, Josh Mills. < https://unsplash.com/photos/u-iXtWNbxgE >. Bogota, Colombia. Bergslay, < https://pixabay.com/images/id-4457809/ >. 103 level. There should be “startup” funding for technical assistance in writing a sustainable urban mobility Plan and designing and establishing a transport authority. Specific initiatives should be financed based on the degree to which they adhere to and support the principles of sustainable urban mobility: projects that meet more stringent criteria and have greater potential benefits should receive greater funding. Projects that fall short of the criteria will require greater local funding; automobile-centric projects will have to be financed substantially through parking fees or similar road user-based sources of revenue. Technical assistance should be available for the establishment of such new funding streams, as part of the capacity-building program for local transport authorities. Step 2. Formulate SUMPs and reconfigure institutional set-up as necessary At the local level, the first prerequisite for effective urban transport reform is a SUMP. This document should be based on data collection to analyze local urban and transport conditions. In particular, an urban accessibility analysis, including different transport modes, should be used to identify priority investments and determine the appropriate path of implementation. This may also include a thorough analysis of plausible interventions, applying the principles of sustainable urban mobility to evaluate the range of possible investments and identify governance reforms required for the implementation of the SUMP. To guarantee minimum quality standards and provide support to local governments, the national government can create a manual to guide the process of formulating SUMPs; this has been done in other countries, such as Mozambique (see Box 21). Next, local institutions should be reconfigured to effectively manage local mobility and transport investments. Technical assistance should be provided for the reconfiguration of local institutions in order to rationalize governance of urban transport. Capacity should be built in these institutions, in the form both of technical staff as well as effective processes and systems, to equip them to deliver sustainable urban mobility. There may be a “model” local transport Box 21 Mozambique’s Manual of Methodology for Preparation of Urban Mobility Master Plans This is specially written guide for preparation of urban mobility plans in Mozambique, developed for the use by cities of all sizes above 20,000 inhabitants . It is a comprehensive and practical how-to manual that provides detailed instructions covering four aspects of urban mobility planning: •• Training at the local level for understanding urban mobility problems •• Conducting studies and developing urban mobility plans •• Managing an inclusive planning process that provide meaningful public involvement •• Designing the legal and regulatory framework for implementation of plans The Manual also contains detailed technical annexes on how to carry out various tasks. While the specific methods given in the Manual may not be applicable for Tanzania, the relevance is that a government has created a comprehensive, accessible guideline for carrying out an essential activity that is not yet widely understood in the country. It provides a technically complete template for carrying out each phase of the planning process, creating a common vocabulary for use by public officials, technical staff and civil society. Source: República de Moçambique Ministério de Administração Estatal e Função Pública (2019). 104 governance institutional arrangement, but local authorities might reasonably be constituted in a variety of ways, providing they show themselves to be fit for purpose for the coordination and delivery of the program. Step 3. Implement SUMPs Once a SUMP and appropriate governance arrangements are in place, work should begin on delivering the local program of sustainable mobility. Achieving sustainable urban mobility will almost certainly require immediate work towards an operationally improved local public transport system. This is likely to require restructuring of the local transport industry on an incremental path towards an integrated, subsidized, publicly accountable and operationally improved mode of operations. To counter the typical bias towards infrastructure investment, the criteria to acquire funds for this will be scarce and dependent on a credible program of broader reform. Infrastructure investment will certainly be a significant component of local sustainable mobility programs. However, all proposed investments will have to adhere stringently to the principles of sustainable urban mobility. In the program design, data-driven criteria should be established to favor equitable, sustainable, and resource-efficient investments. For instance, investments in NMT infrastructure and mass transit that are shown to be feasible should be strongly favored. Similarly, investments that are incremental towards further improvements or show complementarities with other existing or potential sustainable modes should be favored. The national government will have a key role in the oversight and administration of the national SUMP. The GoT should safeguard the program’s fundamental objectives and ensure that plans and institutional arrangements are fit for purpose, and that any proposed interventions are practical, feasible, and effective by the standards of sustainable urban mobility. The GoT also has a vital role in delivering the regional and national complements of local sustainable mobility and coordinating their integration. This includes regional and long-distance rail, as well as long- distance freight policy. The Sustainable Urban Mobility National Program should aim to implement SUMPs in all urban areas in the medium term; however, the roll-out can be sequenced based on a number of criteria. The purpose is to roll out the program everywhere it is necessary, but sequencing of cities can be useful when the program is just getting started or when resources are limited. Sequencing should be defined as part of the program design. Different national programs have defined eligibility differently, often by population (for example, 50,000 people in the United States or 600,000 in Colombia). One implementation path is to pilot the program in a single key city before rolling it out more broadly. Importantly, this does not imply beginning implementation in this city immediately: the national program must be designed and implemented so that the pilot city can test the processes and the model. Despite the challenges faced today by Tanzania to provide sustainable urban mobility in intermediate cities, a national effort to shift the mobility paradigm can change the future of millions of Tanzanians. 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A comprehensive, ambitious package of interventions is both necessary and urgent. To shift the mobility paradigm of intermediate cities, interventions should respond to the four areas of mobility challenges: strategic vision, governance, finance, and management. To allow different levels of effort (and impact), recommendations are divided in three categories: “No Regrets” interventions will build a solid foundation for further action, without major downsides. They are characterized by being comparatively easy and cheap to undertake, with benefits that are at least proportional to their level of effort. “Catching Up” interventions build upon the solid foundation created by “No Regrets” and form a deliberate and intensifying progression of commitment. They often involve the mandatory incorporation of sustainable mobility in decision-making. “Becoming a Champion” interventions represent a dramatic effort to bring about major change through bold actions aimed at significant and lasting positive effects on accessibility, ultimately causing the world at large to take notice and learn from this experience. Becoming a champion involves making the principles of sustainable mobility binding in all relevant decisions. The suggested interventions that follow are designed to work, together or alone, to improve the situation of Tanzania’s intermediate cities. Some are directed at national government, some at local, and several will require coordination across both. Arusha 113 1. Set a new strategic vision for urban transport These interventions depend on the national government to take strong leadership that will set the tone and the terms for urban transport policy nationwide. Interventions No Regrets Recommendation: Increase awareness and knowledge among policymakers 1. Launch an awareness campaign among senior decision-makers about the shift to sustainable mobility 2. Declare a “sustainable transport month” for senior decision-makers to host events and conferences 3. Establish an annual Excellence in Sustainable Transport Prize for a local government decision-maker who has made major strides to pursue the sustainable transport agenda Catching Up Recommendation: Formalize sustainable urban mobility principles within national transport policy 1. Adoption by cabinet of a national sustainable transport policy, to supersede existing urban transport policy 2. Adopt sustainable mobility principles into the missions and mandates of all transport institutions, including TARURA, TanRoads, LATRA, and intermediate cities’ local governments 3. Mainstream sustainable mobility into a central position in all transport Master Plans and implementation plans, including urban Master Plans 4. Create a SUMP manual Becoming a Champion Recommendation: Institutionalize and prioritize sustainable urban mobility in all urban transport planning 1. Introduce legislation to enshrine sustainable transport in all existing transport acts 2. Elevate urban transport with a formal mobility mission to its own directorate within MWTC 3. Mandate SUMPs in all relevant institutions 114 2. Improve urban transport governance These interventions require the national government to lead a process of institutional alignment and reform, to enable agencies and local governments to come into alignment and undertake implementation. Interventions No Regrets Recommendation: Align and coordinate across existing transport and urban governance institutions 1. Establish consultative fora between transport institutions focused on urban mobility 2. Establish consultative fora between transport institutions and land-use and spatial- planning institutions 3. Establish formal channels of communication between TARURA and TanRoads regarding urban mobility Catching Up Recommendation: Formalize links between institutions and create specific urban mobility units within institutions for pipeline of urban projects 1. Formalize procedures and responsibilities to govern coordination between LATRA and the National Police with respect to more actively enforcing wider public transport regulations 2. Establish Urban Transport Units in TanRoads, TARURA, LATRA, National Police, and other transport institutions 3. Establish formal cross-agency procedures for prioritizing urban transport infrastructure along sustainable urban mobility principles, with explicit criteria and methodologies 4. Establish urban mobility, public transport design and management, and accessibility- focused urban design and planning programs in universities Becoming a Champion Recommendation: Establish dedicated urban mobility institutions with a high level of internal capacity 1. Establish a national Urban Transport Agency focused on sustainable urban mobility 2. Work with universities to establish mandatory certification programs and professional associations in urban mobility, to institutionalize a high standard of skills in sustainable urban mobility 3. Establish Urban Transport Boards on the same model as Regional Road Boards 115 3. Strengthen urban transport finance These interventions require a mix of local government implementation and national government reform. Interventions No Regrets Recommendation: Improve efficiency of existing expenditure and revenue collection 1. Increase cost effectiveness with which all core sector activities are performed, such as road maintenance and contracting/supervision of road works 2. Identify opportunities for savings to reduce needs for funding, such as pooling maintenance or supervision contracts across agencies to negotiate better pricing 3. Effectively measure cost effectiveness of all transport expenditures in terms of accessibility improvements 4. Project income more accurately from present sources for RFB by collecting better data and developing a systematic methodology. Study relationships of economic and usage variables to better predict future funding levels and better program levels of maintenance activities. 5. Implement a gradual process to ramp up fund collection for RFB in order to fully finance necessary maintenance activities to avoid high future rehabilitation and replacement costs. Examine the possibility of increasing levels of existing funds (for example, tax on imported fuel, road utilization, transit charges, parking, truck loading/overloading) in a manner that will be accepted by users and politically palatable. 6. Implement new technologies (for example, red light/speeding cameras, automatic truck weighing facilities, electronic public transport fare collection) to improve the efficiency of collecting fees or offer new modalities for doing so Catching Up Recommendation: Ring-fence sector resources and target most cost-effective, people- centered mobility interventions 1. Dedicate funding streams to infrastructure for more sustainable modes of transport, such as public transport lanes or NMT paths 2. Dedicate funding streams to support mobility activities focused on ongoing sector management responsibilities, such as public transport regulation, signaling, traffic control etc. 3. Develop and ring-fence in-sector funding streams, targeting unsustainable modes of transport to cross-subsidize the most sustainable interventions: a. Use parking fees/fines to improve sidewalk/cross-walk facilities, build off- street parking structures, improve traffic circulation downtown b. Use vehicle license fees, car registration fees, and traffic violation fines to fund 116 better traffic management (e.g., signaling, pavement markings, signage), as well as NMT and public transport infrastructure to incentivize others to not drive (and benefit those who do drive) c. Use public transport licensing fees and fines and usage fees for public transport terminals to upgrade public transport facilities and regulation/enforcement activities that will make operations more efficient and cost-effective for service providers 4. Study the feasibility of increases in existing user fees and implementation of new fees by studying the capacity and willingness to pay of users and operators 5. Build local fund-collection capacity, either in local governments or local branches of implementing agencies, and ensure that funds raised locally are spent locally Becoming a Champion Recommendation: Secure and diversify sufficient, predictable revenue for sustainable urban mobility 1. Establish more technically complex sources of in-sector funding such as road usage fees or congestion fees 2. Establish non-sector funding streams for urban transport, such as betterment fees and land value capture 3. Establish infrastructure maintenance trust funds and build local capital-raising capacity 4. Establish binding multi-year budgeting processes to prioritize maintenance and mobility projects to increase the predictability of their funding Moshi 117 4. Improve transport management and operations These implementation-focused interventions are focused on individual institutions, particularly local governments and implementing agencies, with support from national government. Interventions No Regrets Recommendation: Effectively gather and analyze data to understand urban mobility patterns and needs. 1. Determine the type of travel demand model that is most appropriate for the context of intermediate cities in Tanzania, given the quality of data available upon which to perform planning activities. This involves analyzing the feasibility of survey techniques in context, as well as the viability of accurately scaling up from these samples 2. Establish urban mobility databases at local and national level by defining a set of indicators to characterize the state of sustainable urban mobility 3. Conduct travel demand surveys according to methodology appropriate for Tanzania, with special focus on walking and cycling modes, and differentiating by age, gender, and vulnerable groups, such as disabled people 4. Implement new technologies to improve the efficiency of collecting fees or offer new modalities for doing so (e.g., red light/speeding cameras, automatic truck weighing facilities, electronic public transport fare collection) 5. Develop urban transport management plans with participation from all relevant institutions (e.g. LATRA, National Traffic Police, local authorities) 6. Train existing staff on sustainable urban mobility principles and approaches Catching Up Recommendation: Actively manage infrastructure and mobility in the city. 1. Routinely gather urban mobility indicators, including travel demand surveys, at the local and national level to monitor and track the trends of sustainable urban mobility in cities 2. Establish dedicated analytics capacity for local needs in order to draw operational insights from the ongoing data collection 3. Establish routine processes of mobility management that are based on data and make decisions accordingly 4. Implement automated red light or speed control cameras as a cost-effective and transparent process through which to penalize these transgressions and improve roadway safety 5. Establish specific accessibility targets at local level and work towards constant improvement at all times 6. Revise design guidelines for urban roads to encapsulate sustainable urban mobility principles, including NMT, public transport priority, and active streets 118 7. Recruit non-motorized and public transport specialists into transport institutions 8. Effectively measure mobility return on expenditures Become a Champion Recommendation: Anticipate future urban mobility needs and proactively design infrastructure and operations accordingly 1. Implement new technologies to strategically strengthen efficiency and quality of data collection program, such as electronic fare collection, AVL, and traffic detection mechanisms in support of advanced signaling solutions •• AVL equipment and systems allow for more effective regulation of public transport stops and routes •• Electronic fare collection offers a dramatically increased ability to understand travel demand for public transport, control the significant amount of income generated, and decrease the uncertainty of the operating business model •• Actuated signals at intersections monitor traffic flows and change signal timing in sync with demand levels result in improved performance 2. Develop local-level capacity for transport demand modeling and economic modeling 5. A gender approach to urban mobility Gender is a key factor in making sustainable mobility accessible to all. On average, women have different transport demands from men, as well as a different set of skills and institutional representation. These differences should be addressed. The Sustainable Mobility for All initiative recommends the following interventions for consideration, organized here by the report’s areas of focus: Strategic vision Governance Finance Management •• Mainstream •• Establish Joint •• Integrate Gender in •• Train Security and Gender Aspects in Gender Programs Public Procurement Transport Staff in Transport Plans Across Agencies and PPPs Gender Aspects •• Train More Women •• Ensure Transport in the Skills Needed Project Design in Transport Includes Gender •• Build Capacity on Aspects Gender-Inclusive •• Audit the Usability Accessibility and Safety of Planning Public Transport for Women •• Ensure Women Are Not Marginalized During Resettlements 119 Dodoma Annex Sustainable Urban B1 Mobility City Deep Dive: Dodoma The shift of government headquarters from Dar es Salaam to Dodoma is expected to spur population growth and investments in Dodoma. The capital city can harness this opportunity to enhance sustainable mobility, guide urban growth, and reap the benefits of urban density. Though the GoT established Dodoma as the country’s capital city in 1973, most central ministry offices remained in Dar es Salaam until GoT renewed its commitment to shifting the capital and relocated the vast majority of central government operations to Dodoma between 2016 and 2020. Capital investments and the restationing of thousands of public servants to Dodoma has availed new economic opportunities and attracted many new migrants to the city, putting pressure on urban services, including transportation. The transition has been accompanied by an increase in capital investments. For example, Dodoma is receiving more resources from TARURA than any other intermediate city, giving it the opportunity to invest in itself as a sustainable city with an inclusive, efficient, safe, and green transport system. 122 Mobility profile Although traffic congestion is reported to be increasing, Women are more likely to travel for care-related activities. Dodoma still enjoys relatively high accessibility to jobs and 32% of the women interviewed reported travelling for amenities. Air pollution and road safety are also at acceptable medical issues, grocery shopping, or other types of shopping, levels. However, the public transport sector would benefit compared to 16% of men. from better route planning of daladala s and non-motorized transport infrastructure lags behind demand. Women and men have similar perceptions about road safety and personal security when riding a daladala . There are Universal Access minor differences by gender in other aspects: women tend to put more value on the convenience of the route and that it The modal share is dominated by NMT. There is no data of takes them where they need to be (35.6% vs. 32.5%) and the the transport modal split available, but it is assumed to be spaciousness of the bus (5.6% vs. 3.6%), while men put more dominated by NMT and public transport, as it is in other value on the driver’s safe driving (11.3% vs. 13.5%)136. intermediate cities in the country. Effectiveness and Cost Efficiency Accessibility to jobs and amenities by daladala is, on average, high: An average resident can access 68% of jobs within a Road space allocation favors motor vehicles, but the majority one-hour daladala commute in the urban agglomeration135. of commuters use NMT. 81% of the population can reach one primary school within •• 94% of road space is allocated to private vehicles in the one-hour daladala commute (see Figure A1). city center, while only 30% of people travel by private vehicle •• Only 3% of road space is allocated to NMT in the city Figure A1 Average accessibility to opportunities by scenario in Dodoma 100% Average Accessibility 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jobs accessed Primary Secondary Health Centres Markers within 60 Schools Schools minutes Population that Population that accesses one amenity within 60 accesses one minutes school within 40 minutes PT Today More reliable Traffic speed Only Biking Only Walking PT Services falls 50% for PT Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), MEST, MHSW, OpenStreetMaps, and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a cycling speed of 12 km per hour and a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. For children who attend primary school, speeds are 10km per hour and 3.5 km per hour for cycling and walking, respectively. center despite approximately 50-60% of the commuting population using NMT Road quality is better than most intermediate cities. •• 18.9% of roads are paved, compared to a median of 10.6% among the 11 largest Tanzanian intermediate cities •• Road quality is close to the median of the 11 intermediate cities: 100% of the paved roads and 38% of unpaved roads are in good or fair condition Public transport doesn’t provide the best user experience, but waiting time is not yet a major problem and route enforcement is good. •• Satisfaction with public transport is low. Satisfaction with transport options, daladala safety, and quality averages 2.5 out of 5, with no difference by gender137. •• Crowdedness is by far the characteristic of daladala routes disliked the most by women and men (50.4% and 52.6%, respectively)138 . •• Transport systems are supply-driven. Routes are registered as requested by bus owners, but there is no consideration of current demand and supply in the registration of a route permit. •• Route enforcement is stronger than in other cities in Tanzania. All bus routes mapped during the field work had a corresponding registry in LATRA’s system139. •• Median waiting time is good, at only 5 minutes140. Safety Road safety doesn’t appear to be a major concern in the city, but better-quality data is necessary to address the issue. RAIS registries are of poor quality: 0 fatal accidents per 100,000 people were reported in 2017. Resource efficiency and climate resilience Air quality is still good, on average. The average level of particulate matter in Dodoma is 8 micrograms per cubic meter (μg/m3), below the 10 μg/m3 threshold where the effects of PM2.5 on human health are harmful, according to the WHO. Dodoma is less prone to suffering severe damage from flooding than other intermediate cities. 124 Figure A2 Trends Dodoma is urbanizing at very low population density. As Accessibility to jobs using public income and population grow, accessibility in Dodoma will transport in Dodoma likely deteriorate: a 50% reduction in traffic speed will reduce Accessibility to jobs today accessibility to jobs by almost 25%, from 68% to 52%. Average accessibility: 68% •• Dodoma is the fourth-largest city in Tanzania. It is home to 0.6% of Tanzania’s population142. •• By 2014/15, the city employed a high share of the country’s population. It concentrated 2% of the firms and 2.3% of the employment143 in the country, almost four times more than the population. •• Between 2002 and 2012, Dodoma’s population was growing at 2.1% per year, slower than the average urban growth in Tanzania. However, with increased investments and the relocation of official jobs, Accessibility to jobs in the near future on a population growth is expected to increase 5.5% to do-nothing scenario (if speed decreases 50%) 6%144. By 2030, the population is expected to reach Average accessibility: 52% approximately 700,000 people. •• Dodoma is growing at very low population densities. • The average population density in the administrative boundaries is only 197 people per square km145, far below the 1,500 people per square km that the UN recommends as a minimum population density for cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants. • Less than half of Dodoma’s population (42%) lives in areas with more than 1,500 people per square Accessibility (%) km146. 0.0 - 0.0 0 - 20 20 - 40 • The urban footprint grew at an average pace of 5% per year between 2000 and 2015147, more than 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 double the annual population growth. Urban district boundaries •• Accessibility to jobs in Dodoma using public transport Daladala routes could fall by 24% on a do-nothing scenario (see Figure A2). Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), OpenStreetMaps and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. The causes of accessibility trends Strategic Vision Dodoma’s strategic vision is aligned with sustainable mobility principles. The city’s strategic vision in Dodoma’s Master Plan 2019-2039 focuses on enhancing public and non-motorized transport as main modes and calls for more efficient use of existing roads and improved intersection design. Among others, the document states that “Sustainable transportation requires most trips to be done by walking, bicycle or public transport in a safe, secured, convenient, affordable and timely manner with very few trips made by private cars”148. In addition, the document acknowledges the importance of integrating land use to build a transit-oriented, walkable city. However, the proposed development strategy diverts from the strategic vision and may lead to sprawl development, trapping the city in a cycle of car- dependence. The Master Plan calls for the development of seven subcenters, including the Government City, about 20 km away from the city center. The development of these satellite towns would result in sprawled development, increased use of private cars, and localized, fragmented markets that do not take advantage of agglomeration economies. Governance As with all intermediate cities in Tanzania, Dodoma lacks an institution that specializes in urban transport. The Regional Road Board is the only formal channel of coordination between the city councils and TARURA, while channels of coordination with LATRA are mostly informal. As the transfer of the capital to Dodoma progresses, Dodoma should draw on its past experience overcoming previous institutional fragmentation. For decades, the Capital Development Authority (CDA), established as the planning and development agency in charge of implementing the national transfer program, had duplicated responsibilities with Dodoma Municipal Council, causing inefficient use of resources and uncoordinated interventions. GoT reduced this fragmentation by dissolving the CDA in 2017. Nonetheless, a new task force team working under PO-RALG has been created to advise the Government about the capital shift and the Master Plan recommends instituting a team to implement the plan. To avoid the costs of institutional fragmentation, this new coordination mechanism should support, and not duplicate nor interfere with, the mandate of the municipal council. Finance Dodoma receives a high share of Tanzania’s urban transport budget, but funding is still scarce and unpredictable. Dodoma receives 7% of TARURA’s budget, the second-largest share after Dar es Salaam. However, the city still faces budgetary constraints. Resources devoted to new development in 2017/18, the highest share in the last three years among a sample of municipal councils, were enough to build only 4-6 km of tarred roadi and maintain a portion of the existing infrastructure. In addition, the provision of funds in highly unreliable. Development partners provided 80% of total TARURA funds available in the city (see Figure A3). i Estimates based on cost of building 1 km of tarred road by TARURA, which varies between 360 and 500 million TZS. (USD$156,000-217,000). Figure A3 Composition of TARURA’s funding by city a) Composition of TARUR A’s funding assigned by source of funding, selec ted councils 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Moshi MC Songea MC Tabora MC Sumbawanga MC Morogoro MC Tanga CC Mbeya CC Mwanza Arusha CC Dar es Salaam Kigoma MC Dodoma MC Development RFB: RFB: Development partners Maintenance b) Share of TARUR A’s budget assigned to selec ted councils 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Sumbawanga MC Songea MC Tabora MC Moshi MC Morogoro MC Kigoma MC Mbeya CC Tanga CC Arusha CC Mwanza Dodoma MC Dar es Salaam Source: Data from TARURA 127 Management Like other cities in Tanzania, Dodoma stands to gain from thoroughly analyzing its mobility trends and needs. The Master Plan and the Transport Analytical Study take a first step by collecting traffic counts, but the city could benefit from a more systematic and standardized approach that takes stock of demand and supply for all transport modes. This includes origin-destination surveys to identify modal use and commuting patterns, and a detailed diagnostic of non-motorized facilities to prioritize the construction of pedestrian corridors and bikeways. Given the city’s rapid growth, anticipating future urban mobility needs will improve the design of transport infrastructure and operations. Although the city has faced challenges translating plans for sustainable mobility into concrete and implementable programs, Dodoma has successfully protected many (albeit not all) of the right-of-way defined in previous Master Plans. On average, the previous Master Plan was a weak guide to the city’s development: land uses in only 35% and 28% of the core urban area and peri-urban areas, respectively, currently conform to the plan149. However, the city successfully protected the right-of-way of the busway network proposed in the 1976 Master Plan—only five encroachment spots were identified along the 65 km stretch150. Using similar mechanisms will allow Dodoma to progressively invest in transport infrastructure on reserved roads, while also guiding urban development in the long term. The city should prioritize road management interventions before road expansion. Congestion in the city center is one of the main concerns of policymakers. Though road expansion may be necessary to reduce congestion, it should be used strategically to complement road management interventions. A combination of traffic management, improved road hierarchies, and improved intersection design and NMT infrastructure will be cheaper and more effective solutions to congestion than road expansion. In the short term, these interventions will maximize the performance of current infrastructure at lower costs. In the long term, they will help encourage the use of NMT, preventing a shift to motorized modes and limiting future congestion growth. Annex Sustainable Urban B2 Mobility City Deep Dive: Mwanza Mwanza, “Rock City”, is the second-largest Tanzanian city, after Dar es Salaam. It enjoys a strategic position as a logistics hub in Lake Victoria, but its economy has been shrinking151. Tackling sustainable mobility could help reap the benefits of urban density. 130 Mobility profile Figure A4 Mwanza enjoys high accessibility to jobs and amenities by daladala , but the daladala sector needs better route Transport mode used to commute planning and enforcement. While most of the population to work in Mwanza travel by foot, most of the infrastructure serves motorized modes. In addition, air pollution, vulnerability to floods, and Private Car 4% road safety are concerns for the city. Motorcycle 5% Universal Access Public Transport 27% The modal share is dominated by NMT. More than half of the population commutes by foot and 4% by bicycle. Almost one- third commutes by daladala , while less than 10% commutes Cycling by private car or motorcycle152 (see Figure A4). 3% Walk Accessibility to jobs and amenities by daladala is, on average, 61% high. An average resident accesses 57% of the jobs within a Source: Based on MLHHS (2016). one-hour daladala commute and 89% of the population can reach one school within a one-hour daladala commute (see Figure A 5). Women and men have similar perceptions about personal security when riding a daladala . There are minor differences Women are more likely to travel for care-related activities. by gender in other aspects: women tend to value shorter 28% of women interviewed reported travelling for medical waiting times (13.7% vs. 10.1%) and the convenience of the issues, grocery shopping, or other types of shopping, route (34.2 vs. 32.4%), while men value its speed (2.5% vs. compared to 16% of men. 6.8%) and that the driver drives safely (16.2% vs. 20.3%)153. Figure a5 Average accessibility to opportunities by scenario in Mwanza 100% Average Accessibility 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Jobs accessed Primary Secondary Health Centres Markers within 60 Schools Schools minutes Population that Population that accesses one amenity within 60 accesses one minutes school within 40 minutes PT Today More reliable Traffic speed Only Biking Only Walking PT Services falls 50% for PT Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), MEST, MHSW, OpenStreetMaps, and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a cycling speed of 12 km per hour and a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. For children who attend primary school, speeds are 10km per hour and 3.5 km per hour for cycling and walking, respectively. 131 Effectiveness and Cost Efficiency Road space allocation favors motor vehicles, but the majority of commuters use NMT. •• 91% of road space is allocated to motor vehicles in the city center, but only 36% of people use them (9% using private motor vehicles and 27% public transportation) •• Only 6% of road space is allocated to NMT in the city center, despite 61% of the commuter population using NMT •• “Dedicated cycle tracks and sidewalks are not provided along most roads in Mwanza”154 Road quality is at the median level of intermediate cities •• Only 4.4% of roads are paved, compared to 10.6% of a median Tanzanian intermediate city •• Road quality is at the median of intermediate cities: 99% of the paved roads and 37% of unpaved roads are in good or fair condition Public transport does not provide a good user experience. •• Satisfaction with public transport is low. Satisfaction with transport options, daladala safety, and quality averages 2.5 on a scale of 1 to 5, with no difference by gender155 •• Crowdedness is by far the characteristic of daladala routes disliked most by women and men (41.6% vs. 38.5%)156 •• Route registration restricts supply, but enforcement is weak. Transport systems control the supply of vehicles in each route by establishing license registration quotas. But route enforcement is poor, with only 45% of operating bus routes registered157. In addition, route planning and decisions on quotas could benefit from a better understanding of transport demand •• Median waiting time is good, at only 5 minutes Safety Road safety appears to be a major concern in the city, but better-quality data is necessary to address the issue. RAIS registries from 2017 report five fatal accidents per 100,000 people, above the country’s urban mean of three. Resource efficiency and climate resilience Air quality is poor. The average level of particulate matter in Mwanza is 14 μg/m3 158, above the 10 μg/m3 threshold where the effects of PM2.5 on human health are harmful, according to the WHO. Mwanza is vulnerable to flooding. During rainy season, the city receives intense bursts of rainfall, putting pressure on weak drainage systems. The area surrounding the Mirongo River is particularly prone to flash floods, with widespread loss of life and damage to property and infrastructure159. 132 Trends Accessibility in Mwanza is likely to quickly deteriorate as UN minimum population density for cities with more income grows and the city urbanizes. A 50% reduction in than 50,000 inhabitants. Most of the population in the traffic speed will reduce accessibility to jobs by almost half, administrative area (87%) lives in areas with more than from 57% to 31%. 1,500 people per square km. •• Mwanza is the second-largest city in Tanzania. By •• The city contains a high share of national employment. 2030, the population will reach approximately 1 million. 1.3% of the firms and 2.8% of the jobs161 in the country are located in Mwanza, compared to 1.6% of the •• Population is growing fast, but slower than other population162. urban areas. Between 2002 and 2012, population grew 3.7% per year, below the country’s urban population •• Accessibility to jobs in Mwanza using public transport average growth. could fall by 24% on a do-nothing scenario (see Figure A6). •• The average population density in the administrative boundaries is 2,354 people per square km160, above Figure A6 Accessibility to jobs using public transport in Mwanza Accessibility to jobs today Accessibility to jobs in the near future on a Average accessibility: 57% do-nothing scenario (if speed decreases 50%) Average accessibility: 31% Accessibility (%) 0.0 - 0.0 0 - 20 20 - 40 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Urban district boundaries Daladala routes Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), OpenStreetMaps and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. The causes of accessibility trends Strategic Vision The principles of sustainable urban mobility are familiar to Mwanza. The Mwanza Master Plan 2015-2035 acknowledges the need to prioritize a transit-oriented and walkable city and envisions it as one of its four main goals: a convenient city. Aligned with sustainable mobility guidelines, the plan establishes that “A spatial approach should be adopted to design convenient pedestrian zones and plazas, protected sidewalks and bike lanes, bike-sharing facilities, as well as more green infrastructure that motivates and facilitates people to walk instead of driving or needing to take motorised transport”163. The strategic vision set in the Master Plan is aligned with the promotion of a compact city. The document acknowledges the importance of integrating land use and transport policies to build a compact and transit-oriented city. Unlike most intermediate cities in Tanzania, Mwanza’s Master Plan highlights the need to densify already settled areas through infill development using transport infrastructure to guide the city’s urbanization. The current plan also uses “satellite towns” strategically. In contrast with other intermediate cities where satellite towns are used to decentralize economic and population growth, the Master Plan prioritizes three areas of expansion based on targeted employment and population densities. Additional analysis that explores current urbanization trends and the potential influence of transport investments, however, could provide a stronger base for the way forward. Governance As with other intermediate cities in Tanzania, Mwanza lacks an institution that specializes in urban transport. The Regional Road Board is the only formal channel of coordination between the city councils and TARURA, while channels of coordination with LATRA are mostly informal. In addition, Mwanza faces the challenge of coordinating two administrative units with parallel Government structures. Mwanza functions as a single economic and social agglomeration, but it is managed by two separate local government authorities: Nyamanaga (Mwanza City Council) and Ilemela Municipal Council. Effective coordination between the two jurisdictions is not guaranteed and imposes an additional level of decision-making that could lead to delays and inefficiencies in the implementation of transport and land policies. This is a problem that the country already faces in Dar es Salaam, where there is no clear delegation of responsibilities or coordination of policies across the five municipal councils that compose it164. However, the Government has taken steps towards expanding the sources of revenue by establishing parking fees in the downtown area. A private company has been contracted to provide a web-based interface supporting online payment and ensure on-street enforcement of these Finance parking charges at a flat daily rate of TZS 1,500 (USD$0.65). Though this new tax may only marginally discourage further As other Tanzanian cities, Mwanza faces budget restrictions. parking in the downtown area, preliminary qualitative results Until three years ago, 50% of funding for urban transport are positive: private car owners pay for the use of public in Mwanza came from the local government authorities165. space, and there is a new source of revenue for the sector. This Since TARURA took over the responsibility, local own-source practice is the first step towards a full parking management revenues stopped flowing to the sector. Despite being a city strategy to get the best returns from the use of public space with one of the largest fund assignments from TARURA, and and improve the accessibility of the downtown area for all one of four cities that received funds for development from types of users. The revenues collected can support improving the RFB, the budget is enough to cover only a few kilometers of parking and non-motorized facilities in downtown Mwanza, new road every year (2-3 km of tarred road) and perform only benefiting those who pay (i.e., private vehicle drivers) as well a portion of needed maintenance on existing infrastructure. as commuters who are negatively impacted by car use (i.e., The city also faces higher-than-average construction costs in pedestrians, cyclists, and public transport users). some areas due to its rocky terrain (see Figure A7). Figure A7 Composition of TARURA’s funding by city a) Composition of TARUR A’s funding assigned by source of funding, selec ted councils 100% 90% Development 80% partners 70% 60% 50% RFB: Development 40% 30% 20% RFB: 10% Maintenance 0% Moshi MC Songea MC Tabora MC Sumbawanga MC Morogoro MC Tanga CC Mbeya CC Mwanza Arusha CC Dar es Salaam Kigoma MC Dodoma MC b) Share of TARUR A’s budget assigned to selec ted councils 20% 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% Sumbawanga MC Songea MC Tabora MC Moshi MC Morogoro MC Kigoma MC Mbeya CC Tanga CC Arusha CC Mwanza Dodoma MC Dar es Salaam Source: Data from TARURA Management As other cities in Tanzania, Mwanza is in great need of measurement systems that contribute to better urban mobility planning, monitoring and evaluation. Though the Master Plan takes a first step towards understanding mobility characteristics and available road infrastructure in the city166, there is room for improvement. The scarce data collected is not used to support understanding of mobility trends and plan interventions accordingly167. The prioritization of policies and interventions could benefit from systematic and standardized data collection, such as origin-destination surveys to identify modal use and commuting patterns, or systematic traffic counts to understand traffic flows and identify areas of congestion. In addition, a detailed diagnostic of non- motorized facilities could help prioritize the construction of pedestrian corridors and bikeways, supporting the implementation of sustainable mobility policies. Mwanza is taking a step forward to ameliorate road management, but there is still room for improvement. The Mwanza Master Plan technical studies complement current Tanzanian road design standards. They modify road hierarchy categories and incorporate minimum standards for sidewalks and bikeways as part of roadway design168. However, to make these concepts implementable, it is necessary to tailor the standards to the specific setting and incorporate sustainable mobility best practices. For example, the proposed functional street hierarchy contributes by establishing junction spacing and design speed criteria, but could be complemented by addressing lateral access independent of cross streets (i.e., access and restrictions of driveways, parking, and loading areas). Similarly, highlighting the need for proper sidewalks and bikeways is a huge step in the context of Tanzanian intermediate cities, but more detailed design standards are necessary to guarantee access to the most vulnerable (e.g., people with disabilities). Translating the Master Plan into concrete and implementable programs is one of the biggest challenges the city faces today. Mwanza’s Master Plan takes a big step forward by setting guidelines that include sidewalks, bike lanes, and bicycle storage facilities in the CBD and in commercial and employment areas. However, unlike the public transit and road development interventions proposed, these guidelines do not translate into concrete interventions with an estimated budget that could result in the prioritization of NMT. Nonetheless, the Master Plan also assumes that, as the city grows, the transport modal split will shift to private cars and then, naturally, revert to public transport and NMT modes169; however, reverting to more sustainable modes of transport requires active interventions and have huge retrofitting costs. In a do-nothing scenario, the city will be trapped in a vicious cycle of automobile dependence. In addition, as in other intermediate cities, the previous Master Plan was not effectively implemented: only 40% of the core urban area today conforms with previously planned land uses, and the rate of conformity in peri-urban areas is even lower (20%)170. As a next step, Mwanza could create a program that details the process of retrofitting existing infrastructure according to the new standards and identifying projects to establish priority pedestrian and bike networks. Annex Accessibility Analysis in C Four Intermediate Cities in Tanzania Today it is understood among sustainable transport practitioners that targeting accessibility rather than mobility results in better returns to transport investments. Accessibility is measured as the number of jobs and amenities (i.e., health centers, schools, markets, and other urban services) that can be reached without a car within a reasonable time, usually either 30 or 60 minutes171. It evaluates the performance of transit systems and their main contribution to cities: providing access to opportunities or, in other words, improving the “ability of residents and businesses to access markets, employment opportunities, and service centers such as schools and hospitals”172. The use of accessibility instead of more traditional “proximity-based” indicators leads to more holistic transport interventions. Proximity-based indicators, such as distance to the nearest transit stop, average speed, or amount of transportation infrastructure, bias transport policy towards the provision of more infrastructure for motorized modes173, which fuels the car-dependency vicious cycle (i.e., more roads, more cars; more congestion, more roads) and ultimately undermines access to opportunities. In contrast, policy interventions derived from using the accessibility indicator usually go hand-in-hand with urban development and prioritize interventions such as infrastructure for NMT, traffic management, and safety measures. To inform this report on how to develop effective and efficient transit systems in Tanzanian intermediate cities, this Annex analyzes accessibility in four cities: Mwanza, Arusha, Dodoma, and Moshi. To calculate accessibility, mapped daladala routes are used in combination with the locations of jobs, schools, health centers and markets, and transport networks. Field work to map daladala routes was conducted in these four cities as part of this study. This Annex presents the methodology used to measure accessibility to jobs and amenities (i.e., primary and secondary schools, health centers, and markets) and expands on the results. Arusha 139 Arusha 1. Methodology 1.1 Accessibility Indicators Two distinct accessibility indicators are estimated: 1. Accessibility to jobs is estimated as the percentage of jobs accessible within a 60-minute commute for the average citizen using public transport (PT) and NMT. 2. Accessibility to amenities (i.e., primary and secondary schools, health centers, and markets) is estimated as the percentage of the population that accesses at least one of each type of amenity within a 40- or 60-minute commute using PT and NMT. The second indicator is less common in the literature, but underscores the fact that amenities have higher returns when people can easily reach them from their homes. Businesses, hence jobs, have better returns when they cluster because they benefit from agglomeration economies. But this not the case for amenities. While there are some benefits from clustering for schools, health centers, and markets (e.g., by reducing input costs), the best social returns from these amenities are achieved when at least one of each type of amenities are within the reach of the population that uses them. For instance, shorter distances to schools have been associated with higher attendance, lower drop-out rates, and lower rates of child labor174, and medical interventions are more effective at saving lives within the first 60 minutes after the injury175. A threshold of 40 minutes instead of 60 is used to measure accessibility to primary schools, since younger children are socially expected to have shorter commutes for various reasons, including their relative ability to walk long distances and their vulnerability, which make longer commutes less safe. The threshold is set at 40 minutes to follow the guidelines from the GoT i. i The “School Construction and Maintenance Strategy” from the MEST stipulates that children should walk no more than 40 minutes to their primary school. 140 1.2 Data Key inputs for the accessibility analysis include the transport network from OpenStreetMaps, mapped daladala (bus) routes from fieldwork conducted for this study, population distribution from WorldPop (2020 UN-adjusted population projections), and the location of opportunities from various sources, as shown in Table A1. The SBR (2014/15) includes registered and non-registered establishments with a fixed location. Consequently, the accessibility analysis excludes a set of job opportunities: mobile jobs, such as those in petty trade. Although mobile, informal jobs account for a large share of employment in Tanzania, accessibility to jobs with a fixed location is still a relevant mobility performance measure since these jobs usually have higher quality and are more likely to boost agglomeration economies. The field work to map daladala routes was conducted in October 2020. The data was collected in GTFS format, which includes not only the geo-referenced daladala routes, but also bus stops (formal and informal), speeds, and frequency of the service. The GTFS includes both formal routes licensed by LATRA and informal routes in operation within a 10 km buffer from the administrative area. Table A1 Opportunities data source Opportunity Source Level of aggregation Additional details The analysis assumes jobs are Jobs SBR (2014/15) Ward level* equally distributed across the ward. Primary Schools MEST Point coordinates - Secondary Schools MEST Point coordinates - Health centers include all facilities classified as Health centers MHSW Point coordinates hospitals, clinics, or health centers. Markets include all amenities Markets OpenStreetMaps Point coordinates classified as supermarket or marketplace. Note: 24 wards in Mwanza, 47 in Arusha, 24 in Dodoma, and 51 in Moshi. The number of wards corresponds to the 300 people/sq. km agglomerations, so they do not necessarily match the number of wards within the administrative boundaries. 141 Morogoro 1.3 Calculating accessibility ii The Accessibility tool, an open-source tool developed by Conveyal, is used to estimate the number of opportunities that can be reached within a time threshold and a mode of choice from all origins, i, in the city. Origins are defined at the smallest possible resolution: every point in an ~100 m2 grid. This data is then aggregated for the urban area using population distribution as follows: Accessibility to jobs = Accessibility to amenities = where: is the number of opportunities reached from origin, i is the population living in i is an indicator equal to 1 if Accessibilityi ≥ 1, and 0 otherwise Five scenarios are estimated to assess how accessibility changes under different conditions: i. Public transport today: current accessibility using a combination of PT and walking ii. More reliable PT service: accessibility using a combination of PT and walking if the transport services were more reliableiii, i.e., bus schedule and frequency had minimum variation so people could better plan the timing for their trip to minimize waiting times iii. Traffic speed falls 50% for PT: accessibility using a combination of PT and walking if the speed for the bus routes was cut in half iv. Only cycling: accessibility using a bicycle if all roads could serve bicycle users and guarantee an average speed of 12 km/h for adults and 10 km/h for children travelling to primary schools v. Only walking: accessibility by foot, assuming people walk at an average pace of 5 km/h for adults and 3.5 km/h for children travelling to primary schools iii Changes in reliability are estimated as changes in the variability of waiting times. In the Accessibility tool, the reliability scenario assumes variability lies on the 5th percentile, while the rest of the PT scenarios use the 95th percentile. The 95th percentile is used because there are no formalized timetables or frequencies in PT systems in Tanzania, hence the commuter needs to plan his/her trip based on the longest waiting time. 142 1.4 Defining the area of analysis all contiguous areas with population density above 1,500 ppl/ km2 for agglomerations with more than 50,000 people, and Accessibility is calculated for urban agglomerations, 300 ppl/km2 for agglomerations with a population between instead of administrative boundaries, to have comparability 5,000 and 50,000. Though the four cities studied have more across cities. Though the administrative boundaries set than 50,000 inhabitants, areas with a density of 300 ppl/ the space of mandate of the municipal or city councils, they km2 within the area where daladala routes were mapped do not always match the functional urban area of a city. In are considered to be part of the agglomeration to account contrast, agglomerations, defined as all contiguous areas for low population densities. In Dodoma in particular, the 300 with population density above a specified threshold, capture ppl/km2 covers at least half of the population (56%), while the city dynamics and provide a comparable area of analysis the 1,500 ppl/km2 covers only 42% of the population in the across cities. administrative boundary (Table A2). Access to jobs is lower when using the 300ppl/km2 instead of the 1,500ppl/km2 The study uses a 300 people/km threshold to define the 2 threshold, but changes between these two agglomeration agglomerations and takes into account that some of these boundaries are substantial only for Arusha. cities, especially Dodoma, are developing at low densities. The UN and the European Commission define as urban areas Table A2 Area, population, and average population density by city boundary Total As a share of the administrative boundaries Average Area Accessibility Accessibility City Boundary Population density Area Population Density (sq. km) to jobs to jobs (ppl/sq. km) Admin 439.66 1,035,051 2,354 53% 100% 100% 100% 100% Mwanza Aggl. 1500 154.02 897,460 5,827 68% 35% 87% 248% 128% Aggl. 300 313.66 999,685 3,187 57% 71% 97% 135% 108% Admin 267.22 629,819 2,357 43% 100% 100% 100% 100% Arusha Aggl. 1500 127 682,599 5,375 57% 48% 108% 228% 133% Aggl. 300 462.03 935,497 2,025 35% 173% 149% 86% 81% Admin 2613.68 514,723 197 30% 100% 100% 100% 100% Dodoma Aggl. 1500 58.31 217,021 3,722 90% 2% 42% 1890% 300% Aggl. 300 167.01 286,982 1,718 69% 6% 56% 873% 230% Admin 63.39 240,671 3,797 13% 100% 100% 100% 100% Moshi Aggl. 1500 68.02 266,366 3,916 22% 107% 111% 103% 169% Aggl. 300 499.29 544,200 1,090 9% 788% 226% 29% 69% Source: Authors’ estimates using WorldPop (2020) 143 2. Results Accessibility to jobs is at acceptable levels in Mwanza and Dodoma, but low in Moshi and Arusha. Accessibility using PT is only 9% in Moshi and 34% in Arusha, the largest urban agglomerations. PT provides a better service in Mwanza and Dodoma, where job accessibility is 57% and 68%, respectively. Better accessibility to jobs in these two cities is influenced by various factors, including bus routes close to areas with high concentrations of employment (this is also the case in Arusha) (see Figure A8); this is also the case in Arusha) and better reliability of the transport service. In fact, in Moshi, accessibility to jobs would almost double if reliability of the service were to increase, and walking provides better accessibility to jobs than PT, suggesting that both coverage and reliability of daladala routes play an important role in the performance of the transit system in the city. Accessibility to amenities is acceptable in all cities except Moshi. Most of the population can access at least one primary and secondary school, one health center, and one market in Mwanza, Arusha, and Dodoma. Moshi has adequate levels of accessibility to schools, but accessibility to health centers and markets is below 50%. Poor reliability of service negatively affects accessibility to jobs in Moshi and Arusha. Increasing reliability to minimize waiting times would increase accessibility to jobs by 94% in Moshi and 38% in Arusha, but only 20% or less in Mwanza and Dodoma. Increased congestion will gravely deteriorate accessibility to jobs in Mwanza, but less so in Moshi. If traffic speed falls by half, accessibility to jobs using PT in Mwanza will fall by almost half, to 31%. Accessibility will fall by about 25% in Dodoma and Arusha, but only 5% in Moshi, which already has low accessibility to jobs. Non-motorized transport, in particular cycling, has great potential to improve accessibility to opportunities. If all roads in the current road network were cyclable, accessibility to jobs would be at acceptable levels in all cities: an average citizen could access between 61% (Moshi) and 96% (Dodoma) of the jobs by bicycle. Interestingly, NMT (i.e., cycling and walking) provides at least the same level of accessibility to primary and secondary schools than PT, and if the road network were cyclable, cities could increase accessibility to schools to almost 100%. Similarly, cycling increases accessibility to health centers and markets. People who walk because they cannot afford alternative transport modes have low access to jobs. This affects Mwanza’s residents in particular. As expected, commuting by foot provides lower accessibility than cycling and PT in most cases, since people walk slower than they cycle and slower than PT runs. The effects are particularly negative for those who cannot afford PT in Mwanza, where accessibility to jobs by walking is 22%. In addition, in most cases, walking provides higher accessibility to amenities than PT, but average accessibility to markets and health centers in Mwanza and Dodoma is lower for pedestrian commuters. 144 Table A3 Accessibility to jobs and amenities by scenario and city Accessibility (%) Change compared to PT today (%) Mwanza Arusha Dodoma Moshi Mwanza Arusha Dodoma Moshi Jobs PT today 57 34 68 9 - - - - More reliable 68 47 79 17 20 38 17 94 PT service Traffic speed 31 25 53 8 -45 -26 -23 -5 falls 50% for PT Only biking 76 73 96 61 33 111 41 595 Only walking 22 30 49 25 -60 -14 -28 184 Primary Schools PT today 89 79 81 68 - - - - More reliable 90 81 86 70 1 3 7 3 PT service Traffic speed 87 79 80 68 -2 -1 -1 0 falls 50% for PT Only biking 100 99 100 98 13 25 23 45 Only walking 97 93 93 83 9 17 14 23 Secondary School PT today 98 94 97 81 - - - - More reliable 98 94 98 84 0 0 1 4 PT service Traffic speed 98 92 97 81 0 -2 0 0 falls 50% for PT Only biking 100 100 100 99 2 6 3 22 Only walking 98 99 100 94 1 6 3 15 145 Table A3 cont. Accessibility to jobs and amenities by scenario and city Accessibility (%) Change compared to PT today (%) Mwanza Arusha Dodoma Moshi Mwanza Arusha Dodoma Moshi Health PT today 95 75 90 46 - - - - More reliable 96 80 95 55 1 6 5 20 PT service Traffic speed 89 69 85 45 -7 -9 -6 -1 falls 50% for PT Only biking 98 99 100 94 3 32 10 105 Only walking 85 85 87 66 -11 -13 -4 44 Markets PT today 95 66 92 28 - - - - More reliable 96 76 96 40 1 16 4 39 PT service Traffic speed 87 61 84 28 -9 -7 -9 -2 falls 50% for PT Only biking 99 92 100 78 4 41 8 174 Only walking 74 69 81 48 -21 5 -12 70 Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, jobs location from the SBR (2014/15), location of primary and secondary schools from the MEST, location of health centers from the MHSW, and markets and road network from OpenStreetMaps. Population distribution from WorldPop (2020, UN-adjusted population projections). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a cycling speed of 12 km per hour and a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. For children who attend primary school, speeds are 10km per hour and 3.5 km per hour for cycling and walking, respectively. 146 Figure A8 Jobs distribution and accessibility by city Mwanza | Distribution of jobs Mwanza | Accessibility to jobs (PT today) Arusha | Distribution of jobs Arusha | Accessibility to jobs (PT today) Dodoma | Distribution of jobs Dodoma | Accessibility to jobs (PT today) 147 Figure A8 continued Jobs distribution and accessibility by city Moshi | Distribution of jobs Moshi | Accessibility to jobs (PT today) Distribution of jobs (%) Accessibility (%) 0-5 5 - 10 10 - 15 0.0 - 0.0 0 - 20 20 - 40 15 - 20 20 - 30 40 - 60 60 - 80 80 - 100 Urban district boundaries Urban district boundaries Daladala routes Daladala routes Source: Author’s estimations based on GTFS, SBR (2014/15), OpenStreetMaps and WorldPop (2020). Note: Estimates for city agglomerations with at least 300 people per km2. Estimates assume a walking speed of 5 km per hour for adults. 3. Conclusions Tanzanian intermediate cities face several challenges to achieve functional transit systems. Even in small cities, such as Moshi, accessibility to opportunities can be low. In addition, even when PT services provide high accessibility, as in Mwanza, low affordability of PT can leave many with poor access to jobs and amenities, since walking is their only resort. The accessibility analysis is a key tool to understand and design more effective and efficient transit systems. The accessibility analysis provides the flexibility to test for various scenarios. Solutions can come in various forms; additional road infrastructure is only one solution. In particular, this analysis highlights that there are gains from (1) improving the daladala service’s reliability and route design, and (2) facilitating NMT infrastructure. 148 Endnotes 1. Vandycke and Kauppila (2017) 2. World Bank (2021b). 3. Worrall, L., et al. (2017). 4. World Bank (2021b). 5. Bertaud, A. (2018). 6. Lall, S.V., et al. (2017). 7. Litman, T. (2012). 8. Worrall, et al. (2017). 9. Peralta-Quiros, T., et al. (2019). 10. Kumar, A. and Barrett., F. (2008). 11. Msigwa, R. B. (2013). 12. Authors’ estimations based on Household Budget Survey 2017-18 (HBS 2017-18) from the National Bureau of Statistics of the United Republic of Tanzania (NBS); only urban areas different from Dar es Salaam are considered. 13. Estimate based on HBS2017. 14. United Nations Environment Programme (2019). 15. Mendiate, C. (2019). 16. Lall, et al. (2017). 17. The distribution of jobs used to measure accessibility is estimated based on the Statistical Business Registry Survey (SBR) (2014/15) from the NBS, which includes registered and non-registered establishments with a fixed location. Consequently, the accessibility analysis excludes a set of job opportunities: mobile jobs, such as those in petty trade. Although mobile, informal jobs account for a large share of employment in Tanzania. Accessibility to jobs with a fixed location as a mobility performance measure is relevant, since these jobs usually have higher quality and are more likely to boost agglomeration economies. 18. Ministry of Education, Science and Technology of the United Republic of Tanzania (MEST). (2010). 19. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 20. Authors’ estimations based on HBS 2017-18. 21. A similar exercise using satellite imagery was conducted in Amsterdam, Berlin and Freiburg (Nello-Deakin, 2019). 22. World Bank Mission Qualitative Survey, Dodoma and Mwanza (2020). 23. World Bank Mission Qualitative Survey, Dodoma and Mwanza (2020). 24. World Bank Mission Qualitative Survey, Dodoma and Mwanza (2020). 25. Authors’ estimations based on passenger interviews conducted by this study, on bus routes and bus terminals: 442 interviews in Mwanza, 591 in Dodoma, 436 in Arusha, and 173 in Moshi (October 2020). 26. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders. (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 27. Qualitative information collected in the Saba Saba Station in Dodoma (March 2020). 28. https://preciosmundi.com 29. World Health Organization (WHO) (2018). 30. World Bank (2020). 31. WHO (2018). 32. WHO (2018). 33. In consultation with the disaster risk management World Bank team (2020). 34. World Bank (2014). 149 35. Msigwa (2013). 36. Huang, C. Y., et al. (2018). 37. Rentschler, J. E., et al. (2019). 38. Daladala passenger survey conducted in Mwanza, Dodoma, Arusha, and Moshi (2020). 39. Newman, P.W.G. and Kenworthy, J.R. (1996). 40. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UN) (2019). 41. Authors’ estimations based on average urban population growth between 2010 and 2020, UN (2019). 42. Authors’ estimations based on World Bank World Development Indicators. 43. World Bank (2019). 44. World Bank (2019). 45. World Bank (2021a). 46. Lozano-Gracia, N. and Young, C. (2014). 47. Msigwa (2013). 48. Japanese International Cooperation Agency (JICA) (2019). 49. Ministry of Works, Transport and Communications of the United Republic of Tanzania (MWTC) (2019). 50. Kumar, A. (2011). 51. Huang, et al. (2018). 52. Huang, et al. (2018). 53. Holzer, H. J., et al. (1994). 54. Data to measure modal choice are of poor quality or inexistent in intermediate cities. We assume an average city has the following modal distribution: NMT 60%, daladala 30%, motorcycle 6%, and private car 4%. 55. Breithaupt (2010), based on Botma & Papendrecht (1991). 56. European Environment Agency, https://www.eea.europa.eu/media/infographics/co2- emissions-from-passenger-transport/image/image_view_fullscreen 57. In Latin America: Bull, A. (Ed.) (2004). In Europe: Irish Government Economic and Evaluation Service (2017). 58. Lall, et al. (2017). 59. Dominguez Gonzalez, et al. (2020); Aguilar, et al. (2016); Kondylis, et al. (2019). 60. University of Chicago/EPIC. Air Quality Index. 61. Burnett, R., et al. (2018). 62. World Bank (2016). 63. Chang, et al. (2016). 64. Ministry of Land, Housing and Human Settlements of the United Republic of Tanzania (MLHHS) (2016b). Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 65. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 66. Ministry of Finance and Planning of the United Republic of Tanzania (MFP) (2016). 67. MFP (2016). 68. Parliament of the United Republic of Tanzania, The Urban Planning Act of 2007 (2007). Section 5, paragraph (c). 69. The authors reviewed 14 recently updated Master Plans of intermediate cities: Arusha (2015 - 2035), Bariadi (2014 - 2034), Dodoma (2019 - 2039), Geita (2017 - 2037), Iringa (2015 - 2035), Kigoma -Ujiji (2017 - 2037), Mbeya (2019 – 2039), Morogoro (2015/2016 – 2035/2036), Moshi (2019 - 2019), Mwanza (2015 - 2035), Songea (2017 - 2017), Sumbawanga (2015 - 2035), Tabora (2015 - 2035), and Tanga (2016 - 2035). 70. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 71. Yiran, G.A.B., et al. (2020). 72. Huang, et al. (2018). Pg 16. 73. Recent Master Plans, including Morogoro, Dodoma, and Mwanza. 74. Washington Metropolitan Area Transit Authority (2009). 150 75. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 76. Huang, et al. (2018). 77. Hallegate (2009) cited by Lall, et al. (2017) 78. Regan, et al. (2015). 79. Most recent master plans for Mwanza (2016), Dodoma (2019), and Morogoro (2016). 80. 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Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 119. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 120. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 121. Ministry of Land, Housing & Human Settlements Development (2016). 122. Ministry of Infrastructure Development of the United Republic of Tanzania (2009a). 123. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 151 124. Nhundu, E. (2013). 125. WHO (2018). 126. Sum4all website, https://sum4all.org/priorities . 127. Litman, T.,(2020). 128. UITP (2020). 129. Stromberg, J. (2015). 130. GIZ (2019). 131. Dalkmann, H. and Brannigan, C. (2007). 132. See various resources at https://www.15minutecity.com/ 133. Mahendra, A., Raifman, M., and Dalkmann, H. (2013). 134. The National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, Medicine (1997). 135. Accessibility metrics are calculated in agglomerations with more than 300 people per square km. 136. Daladala passengers’ surveys (2020). 137. Daladala passengers’ surveys (2020). 138. Daladala passengers’ surveys (2020). 139. All bus routes mapped during the route-mapping field work conducted for this study matched LATRA’s bus routes registration. 140. Daladala passengers’ surveys (2020). 141. Author’s estimations based on van Donkelaar, A., et al. (2018), Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR, and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with GWR, 1998-2016. Palisades, NY: NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). https://doi. org/10.7927/H4ZK5DQS. 142. National Bureau of Statistics of the United Republic of Tanzania, Population and Housing Census (PHC) 2012 (2012). 143. SRB 2014-15. 144. Ministry of Land, Housing and Human Settlements of the United Republic of Tanzania (MLHHS) (2019). 145. Author’s estimation based on WorldPop (2020, population adjusted to match UN projections). 146. Author’s estimation based on WorldPop (2020, population adjusted to match UN projections). 147. Huang, et al. (2018). 148. MLHHS (2019). Pg. 104. 149. Huang, et al. (2018). 150. MLHHS (2019). Pg. 172. 151. United Republic of Tanzania, Ministry of Land, Housing and Human Settlements Development (MLHHS) (2016b). 152. MLHHS (2016b). 153. Daladala passengers’ surveys (2020). 154. MLHHS (2016b). Volume 2: Technical Supplements 1-6. 155. Daladala passengers’ surveys (2020). 156. Daladala passengers’ surveys (2020). 157. Only 45% of the bus routes mapped during the route mapping field work conducted for this study matched LATRA’s bus routes registration. 158. Author’s estimations based on van Donkelaar, A., R., et al. (2018). Global Annual PM2.5 Grids from MODIS, MISR and SeaWiFS Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD) with GWR, 1998- 2016. 159. In consultation with the disaster risk management World Bank team (2020). 160. Author’s estimation based on WorldPop (2020, population adjusted to match UN projections). 161. SBR (2014-15). 162. PHC (2012). 152 163. MLHHS (2016b). Volume 2: Technical Supplements 1-6. Pg 76. 164. World Bank (2021b). 165. Authors’ conversations with stakeholders. (March-April 2020 and February-April 2021). 166. The proposal is the result of high-level traffic simulation based on the locations of proposed land uses. 167. “It is to be noted that unlike other typical model development processes, in this project we are building a base future model and not a base current year model. The reason being the outlook of Mwanza residential and industrial areas will be very different from existing situation. Therefore, validations are done based on discussions with planners and accounting for their vision for the future of Mwanza, rather than using existing year household surveys or recent traffic counts. The following explains the assumption used the development of the future demand model.” MLHHS (2016b). Volume 2: Technical Supplements 1-6, Pg 78. 168. MLHHS (2016b). Volume 2: Technical Supplements 1-6, Chapter 5. 169. “Given the lack of survey data available on travel characteristics it has been assumed that private traffic may be the dominant mode of travel during the early years of Mwanza’s development. However, as the city becomes denser and more integrated during future phases of development in the decades to come, an expected shift in travel behaviour will give rise to a higher percentage of public transport and an associated reduction in car mode share.” MLHHS (2016b). Volume 2: Technical Supplements 1-6, Pg 78. 170. Huang, et al. (2018). 171. Peralta-Quiros (2015). 172. Peralta-Quiros (2015). 173. Peralta-Quiros (2015). 174. MEST (2019) and Vuri (2010). 175. Rentschler, J., et al. (2019). 153