Planting Roots in Shifting Soil Building Social Protection and Labor Systems in Fragile, Conflict, and Violence-Affected Settings An Approach Paper Afrah Al-Ahmadi, Silvia Fuselli, Jamele Rigolini, and Paul Harvey Soci l Prot ction & L bor © 2025 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank Soci l Prot ction & L bor 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. 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Acknowledgments This Approach Paper was written by a core team composed of Afrah Al-Ahmadi (Team Leader, Senior Social Protection Specialist), Silvia Fuselli (Social Protection Consultant), Jamele Rigolini (Senior Advisor), and Paul Harvey (Social Protection Consultant). The team also included Callistus Agbaam (Social Protection Consultant), Barsha Dharel (Social Protection Consultant), and Rada Naji (Social Protection Specialist). The work was undertaken under the guidance of Iffath Sharif (Global Director, Social Protection and Labor Global Practice), Christian Bodewig, and Loli Arribas-Banos (Practice Managers). Parts of this paper draw on unpublished background materials, including a Portfolio Review of the World Bank’s Social Protection and Labor operations in FCV contexts by Callistus Agbaam, and nine country case studies authored by Paul Harvey. The team gratefully acknowledges constructive feedback provided by peer reviewers: Robert S. Chase (Advisor, Africa East People Department); Kristina Svensson (Country Manager for Somalia), Catherine Defontaine, and Rebecca Lacroix (Senior Operations Officers, FCV Group); and Jen Marshall Haugen (Deputy Director, FCDO), for their valuable comments during the review process. Special thanks are extended to Mattias Lundberg and Colin Andrews (Senior Social Protection Specialists) for their continuous sup- port and advice throughout the concept and drafting process, and to Penny Williams (Manager, Human Development Group), Ugo Gentilini, and Pablo Acosta (Lead Economists); Emanuela Vega Migliaccio (Young Professional); and Jeremy Aaron Lebow (Econo- mist) for their helpful comments. The team also thanks the Practice Managers of the Social Protection and Labor Global Practice, Global Leads, and regional task teams working in FCS countries for their valuable contributions and insights. Deep appreciation is extended to the Task Team Lead- ers in the case study countries: Mona Luisa Niebuhr and Ali Qureshi (Somalia); Mohamed Abdel Jelil (Sudan); Kateryna Petryna, Nithin Umapathi, and Anna Baranova (Ukraine); Ailo Klara Manigat and Pascal Jaupart (Haiti); Vanessa Moreira da Silva and Michele Zini (West Bank and Gaza); Andras Bodor, Randa El-Rashidi and Juul Pinxten (Yemen); Surat F. Nsour, Mahamane Maliki Amadou, and Moukenet Azoukalne (Chad); Christabel E. Dadzie and Ayuba Sani Hussein (Ethiopia); and Ning Fu (Papua New Guinea). The team is also grateful to FCV Country Coordinators, client country staff, and colleagues from United Nations agencies and develop- ment partners who participated in interviews and contributed to the development of the case studies. Finally, the team thanks the many colleagues and partners who reviewed early drafts and contributed to the consultations, in- cluding: Yashodhan Ghorpade (Senior Economist), Mira Saidi (Social Protection Specialist), Ailo Klara Manigat (Social Protection Specialist), Pascal Jaupart (Economist), Vanessa Moreira da Silva (Social Protection Specialist), Christopher C. Gabelle (Senior Social Protection Specialist), Jordi Jose Gallego-Ayala (Senior Social Protection Specialist), Emma Wadie Hobson (Senior Social Protection Specialist), Adrien Henri Rene Ciret (Junior Professional Office), Paul Bance (Advisor), Laura Rawlings (Lead Economist, Gender Group), Manuel Contreras Urbina (Senior Social Development Specialist, Gender Group), Doreen Kibuka-Musoke (Senior Operations Officer, FCV Group), technical staff from some client countries, the Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (FCDO) team, including Heather Kindness, Ed Barney, Leah Gaffney, Tom Russell, Francesca Kemp, Erica Mason, Charlotte Weekly, Will Reynolds, and Jonathan Goodhand, in addition to Trond Kvarsvik from the Norwegian Agency for Development Cooperation (NORAD), mem- bers of the SPIAC-B Working Group on Linking Humanitarian Assistance with Social Protection and of the United States Agency for International Development (USAID). The Approach Paper benefited from financial support from the State and Peacebuilding (SPF) Umbrella Trust Fund. SPF is a global multi-donor fund to finance critical development operations and analysis in situations of FCV. The World Bank administers the SPF and works with partners to address the drivers and impacts of fragility, conflict, and violence, while strengthening the resilience of countries and affected populations, communities, and institutions. SPF is kindly supported by contributions from Denmark, France, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, and Switzerland, as well as the International Bank for Reconstruction and Develop- ment (IBRD). This Paper is a living document. It is designed to guide dialogue and operational engagement on social protection in fragile and conflict-affected settings. The content will evolve to align with the forthcoming World Bank Group FCV Strategy and to reflect emerging priorities and lessons relevant to developing sustainable solutions in FCV contexts. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 1 Table of Contents Acronyms and Abbreviations......................................................................................................................... 7 Glossary.......................................................................................................................................................... 8 Executive Summary....................................................................................................................................... 9 I. INTRODUCTION...........................................................................................................12 1.1. Background and Rationale............................................................................................................ 12 1.2. Methodology and Limitations....................................................................................................... 16 1.3. Structure of the Approach Paper.................................................................................................. 17 II. UNDERSTANDING FCV CHALLENGES AND THEIR IMPACT ON PEOPLE, COMMUNITIES, AND INSTITUTIONS.............................................................................18 III. TOWARD A STRATEGIC APPROACH TO SOCIAL PROTECTION AND LABOR SYSTEM IN FCV SETTINGS............................................................................................25 3.1 Charting the Course: The Role of Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV.......................... 26 Focus Area 1: Protecting and Supporting the Accumulation of Human Capital.......................... 27 Focus Area 2: Building resilience of people and institutions........................................................ 30 Focus Area 3: Supporting Transition and Recovery....................................................................... 34 3.2 From Objectives to Action: Building Country-Owned Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV Settings............................................................................................................. 39 3.2.1 Guiding Questions....................................................................................................................... 39 3.2.2 Operational Pathways for Social Protection in FCV Settings..................................................... 41 IV. CONCLUSION...............................................................................................................56 ANNEX I. APPLYING THE OPERATIONAL PATHWAYS IN PRACTICE: COUNTRY EXAMPLES FROM WORLD BANK’S SOCIAL PROTECTION AND LABOR OPERATIONS..................... 58 ANNEX II. WBG FY25 FCV List..................................................................................... 74 References .............................................................................................................. 75 PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 2 Tables Table 3.1 Illustrative Table of Pathways...................................................................................................... 42 Figures Figure 1.1 Projections: Number of Extreme Poor in FCV and Non-FCV Settings Globally.............................. 10 Figure 1.2 Share of WB Portfolio Volume in FCS by Global Practice (FY18-22)................................................ 12 Figure 2.1 The Reinforcing Cycle of FCV and Vulnerability............................................................................... 16 Figure 2.2 Countries with the Lowest Performance Globally on Selected Gender Indicators........................ 21 Figure 3.1 The Role of Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV ............................................................... 26 Figure 3.2 Pathways for Building Country-Owned Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV Settings �� 41 PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 3 Acronyms and Abbreviations CMS Case Management System CNARR Chadian National Commission for the Reception and Reintegration of Refugees and Returnees (Chad) CNSP Child Nutrition and Social Protection Project (Papua New Guinea) EI Economic Inclusion FCS Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situations FCV Fragility, Conflict, and Violence FY Fiscal Year GBV Gender-Based Violence GDP Gross Domestic Product GRM Grievance Redress Mechanism GLR Great Lakes Region IDA International Development Association IDP Internally Displaced People INGO International Non-Governmental Organization MAST Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor (Haiti) MoLSA Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (Somalia) MoSD Ministry of Social Development (West Bank and Gaza) NGO Non-Governmental Organization PNG Papua New Guinea PNSP Productive Safety Net Program (Ethiopia) SMEPS Small and Micro Enterprise Promotion Service SFD Social Fund for Development (Yemen) SWF Social Welfare Fund (Yemen) TPI Third Party Implementer UPSNP Urban Productive Safety Net Project (Ethiopia) UPSNJP Urban Productive Safety Net and Jobs Project (Ethiopia) WB World Bank WFP World Food Programme PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 4 Glossary Conflict: A situation of acute insecurity driven by the use of deadly force by a group—including state forces, organized non-state groups, or other irregular entities—with a political purpose or motivation. Such force can be two-sided—involving engagement with multiple organized, armed sides, at times resulting in collateral civilian harm—or one-sided, in which a group specifically targets civilians.1   Engagement: Ability to channel financial resources, regardless of their nature and instrument (e.g., loans, credit, grants, trust funds, etc.) through direct financing to the government and/or independently of the role of the government in the implementation. Fragility: A  systemic condition characterized by extremely low levels of institutional and governance capacity that significantly impedes the state’s ability to function effectively, maintain peace, and foster economic and social development.2 Pathways: A strategic plan or sequence of actions designed to achieve specific developmental goals. It encompasses the steps, processes, and approaches that guide interventions aimed at fostering progress toward the desired outcome. Resilience: Ability of individuals, households, communities, institutions, and systems to mitigate, manage, adapt to, and recover from the impacts of FCV-induced shocks in ways that sustain well-being, preserve livelihoods, and promote recovery. Social Protection and Labor Systems: A set of policies and programs designed to protect individuals and households, especially the poor and vulnerable, from financial and societal hardships, ensuring a minimum standard of well-being for all. This is achieved by increasing people’s resilience, equity, and opportunities through a wide range of instruments, including social assistance (cash transfers, school feeding, social pensions), social insurance (pensions, unemployment insurance), and labor market and economic inclusion programs (skills training, access to financial services). Violence: Situations of levels of interpersonal and gang violence.3 1 World Bank (2024) Classification of fragility and conflict situations (FCS) for World Bank Group engagement, https:// thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/fb0f93e8e3375803bce211ab1218ef2a-0090082023/original/Classification-of-Fragility-and- Conflict-Situations-FY24.pdf?_gl=1*q5y92v*_gcl_au*MTA4MjA2NDgwNy4xNzI0NzY1NjUz 2 World Bank (2024) Classification of fragility and conflict situations (FCS) for World Bank Group engagement, https:// thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/fb0f93e8e3375803bce211ab1218ef2a-0090082023/original/Classification-of-Fragility-and- Conflict-Situations-FY24.pdf?_gl=1*q5y92v*_gcl_au*MTA4MjA2NDgwNy4xNzI0NzY1NjUz 3 Updated Bank policy: development cooperation and fragility, conflict, and violence. https://documents1.worldbank. org/curated/en/498771628797344998/pdf/Updated-Bank-Policy-Development-Cooperation-and-Fragility-Conflict-and- Violence.pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 5 Executive Summary Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) are among the most severe threats to global development, disrupting lives, eroding institutions, and reversing hard-won gains in poverty reduction and shared prosperity. FCV settings are characterized by overlapping crises—conflict, displacement, weak governance, and climate shocks—that reinforce each other and create persistent cycles of vulnerability. The impacts disproportionately affect the poorest and most vulnerable populations, who are least able to cope with and recover from such shocks. As inequality deepens and public trust erodes, countries risk becoming trapped in a vicious cycle of fragility and instability, with far-reaching implications for national, regional, and global development. Addressing these complex challenges requires a fundamental shift in how the international community engages in FCV contexts. There is growing recognition that short-term humanitarian responses, while essential, are not sufficient. Instead, integrated approaches that complement humanitarian efforts are needed, ones that respond to immediate needs while also addressing the root causes of fragility and building long-term resilience. This dual imperative is especially critical during active and protracted crises, when state institutions are under pressure and the risks of backsliding, exacerbation, or collapse are most significant. In this context, building national social protection and labor systems becomes a strategic imperative. Social Protection and Labor systems offer a critical entry point for developmental and sustainable responses in FCV settings. These systems generate both immediate and long-term dividends. In the short term, they can serve as an essential tool to deliver timely and predictable support to affected households, helping them avoid negative coping strategies, protecting their human capital, and building their resilience. In the long term, Social Protection and Labor systems can become platforms for sustainable development. They can support transitions out of fragility by promoting economic inclusion, social cohesion, and institutional resilience. By embedding equity, accountability, and transparency in the delivery of social support, these systems can contribute to restoring citizen trust in the state—an essential condition for social stability. Moreover, mature Social Protection and Labor systems can be adapted to deliver complementary interventions that address the structural drivers of fragility and exclusion, thus preventing at-risk countries from falling deeper into fragility. Investing in Social Protection and Labor systems in FCV situations also delivers dividends across the humanitarian-development-peace nexus, bridging short-term crisis response with long-term institution-building. They offer a scalable pathway to break intergenerational cycles of poverty and strengthen national capacities to provide inclusive services, promoting resilient societies in the face of protracted crises. The experiences of countries across the FCV spectrum demonstrate both the feasibility and critical importance of building national Social Protection and Labor systems in FCV environments. In FCV- affected countries where national systems were in place prior to the onset of crisis, such as Ethiopia, Ukraine, and Yemen, these systems enabled rapid, large-scale delivery during conflict and economic disruption. They allowed for continuity of support and avoided the need to create ad hoc or parallel structures, thereby preserving institutional capacity. In contexts like Somalia, where such systems were either absent or only PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 6 just emerging, efforts to deliver emergency support were combined with the simultaneous development of foundational Social Protection and Labor systems infrastructure. This dual approach proved vital for safeguarding human capital and livelihoods while laying the groundwork for future recovery and transition. Finally, in fragile contexts such as Chad or Papua New Guinea, social protection can play an additional, preventive role. By reinforcing social cohesion, Social Protection and Labor systems can mitigate risks of social instability and contribute to resilience in environments prone to conflict or political crisis. These varied country experiences underscore the strategic value of investing in national or locally anchored systems across the FCV spectrum, not only to enable crisis response but also to prevent escalation, build resilience, and facilitate transition and longer-term recovery. However, building and sustaining Social Protection and Labor systems in FCV presents distinct operational and institutional challenges that demand sustained engagement and adaptive, context- sensitive strategies. These environments are often characterized by insecurity, political instability, limited institutional capacity, weak governance, and high fiduciary risks. In some contexts, governments may lack territorial control or have collapsed altogether, making direct engagement unfeasible. In such cases, Social Protection and Labor interventions may need to rely on third-party implementers (TPIs) while ensuring that the engagement remains aligned with long-term objectives for national ownership and system building. The strategic use of TPIs, when accompanied by clear plans for transitioning to national authorities, can help maintain continuity and pave the way for fully government-led programs. Engaging government and local actors can help address governance and institutional weaknesses that undermine effective service delivery. This engagement should be rooted in the principles of inclusion, transparency, and accountability, with an emphasis on building trust and capacity at both national and subnational levels. Such investments are essential not only for short-term effectiveness but also for enabling system building and reducing the drivers of fragility over time. To guide policy and operational engagement in these complex contexts, this Approach Paper provides a structured framework for supporting social protection and labor systems and policies in FCV settings. The framework aims to support Task Teams and social protection practitioners in navigating diverse FCV situations through a practical, context-sensitive approach grounded in a deep understanding of each setting’s specific risks, constraints, and opportunities. The framework articulates three high-level objectives of social protection and labor support in FCV contexts: (i) protect and support the accumulation of human capital; (ii) enable people and institutions to build resilience and cope with FCV-related impacts; and (iii) lay the foundations for recovery and transition out of fragility and conflict. To translate these objectives into practice, the Paper introduces a pathway-based framework that organizes FCV contexts by four parameters: (i) the presence of active conflict, (ii) the feasibility of direct government engagement, (iii) the government’s territorial access, and (iv) the maturity of national Social Protection and Labor systems. These factors shape the engagement model, the actors involved, and how support is sequenced and scaled. Based on this framework, eight resulting pathways are identified, each representing a tailored approach to engagement, and illustrated through real-world case studies to support practical implementation. The framework emphasizes the centrality of identifying entry points to build country-owned systems and capacity to support the long-term implementation of Social Protection and Labor programs. These include supporting inclusive delivery systems and basic building blocks such as registries and a PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 7 management information system (MIS); attention to human resources; and the critical role of social workers and local actors in enabling more holistic responses to vulnerability. To maximize the impact of social protection interventions, cash assistance should be complemented by well-tested additional measures that support enhanced resilience and promote economic inclusion and empowerment through livelihoods and job creation, as well as support human capital accumulation, including for women, youth, and displaced populations. Looking forward, and in the context of a constrained aid environment, a key priority is to strengthen financing strategies and maximize efficiencies. The Social Protection and Labor agenda in FCV settings faces chronic underfunding, low political prioritization, and heavy reliance on humanitarian aid. Long-term, flexible financing—coupled with robust policy dialogue—is essential to support governments in prioritizing Social Protection and Labor systems within constrained fiscal spaces. The World Bank should build on its leadership role by leveraging IDA, trust funds, and policy operations, while expanding its analytics and technical support to foster government ownership and accountability. It should also work closely with development and humanitarian partners to promote and support government-led coordination efforts to align development and humanitarian actors more closely with national policies and plans. The ultimate measure of success will be whether Social Protection and Labor systems help individuals emerge from crisis stronger, more self-reliant, and better prepared for the future, and whether institutions become more resilient and prepared to play a critical role in the recovery and transition out of FCV. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 8 I. INTRODUCTION 1.1 Background and Rationale Over the past 25 years, fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) have sharply increased globally and have become more protracted. Since 2010, the global fragility landscape has become more complex, with a notable rise in both the frequency and intensity of conflict and violence.4 The past five years alone have witnessed nearly twice as many coups d’état as in the previous decade. Conflict incidents have surged, reaching close to 200,000 by 2024, up from 104,371 in 2020.5 Simultaneously, entrenched violence in countries such as Sudan, Mexico, and Yemen, as well as across the Sahel, continues to destabilize regions and erode development gains (Figure 1.1). Very few conflicts have been resolved, and the impacts of climate change further aggravate fragility through the amplification of compounded shocks. These patterns suggest that the trend is not abating, but rather deepening and spreading. FCV encompasses a wide and dynamic spectrum of contexts that vary in nature, intensity, and trajectory. FCV-affected countries range from those experiencing full-scale armed conflict (e.g., Ukraine and Yemen) to settings marked by widespread violence, such as gang-related violence (e.g., Haiti), and others where institutional fragility and localized insecurity persist in the absence of overt conflict. Importantly, FCV situations are not static. Countries may move in and out of FCV situations or shift across different forms of risk, fragility, or conflict. Some, such as Burkina Faso and Mali, have experienced sharp reversals after periods of relative stability. Others, such as Mauritania and Senegal, face heightened risks due to regional spillovers. The evolving and unpredictable nature of FCV underscores the need for development approaches, particularly in Social Protection and Labor systems, which are operationally flexible and risk-informed, enabling interventions to recalibrate in response to worsening insecurity, institutional breakdown, or political turnover. FCV settings are increasingly at the center of global poverty, even as the geography of fragility evolves. While accounting for less than a quarter of the global population, FCV-affected countries are home to approximately 46 percent of the world’s extreme poor.6 Since 2010, poverty in these settings has risen by 117 percent. Projections indicate that by 2030, two-thirds of the global extreme poor—about 340 million people—will live in FCV locations.7 As a result, FCV-affected countries will become a primary focus of poverty reduction efforts globally, with social protection and labor support playing a central role in the response. At the same time, fragility is shifting beyond traditional categories. As highlighted in the OECD’s 2022 State of Fragility Report, a growing number of countries facing high or extreme fragility are middle- 4 World Bank. Fragility, conflict & violence, Overview, (June 19, 2025), https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/ fragilityconflictviolence/overview and OECD (2025), States of fragility 2025, OECD Publishing, Paris, https://www.oecd.org/ en/publications/2025/02/states-of-fragility-2025_c9080496.html 5 ACLED (2024) Conflict Index: December 2024, https://acleddata.com/conflict-index/ 6 World Bank (2024) Poverty, prosperity, and planet report 2024 - Pathways out of the polycrisis (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099101424092027337 7 World Bank. Fragility, conflict & ciolence, https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 9 income, challenging the notion that fragility is predominantly a phenomenon of low-income countries.8 This shift reinforces the need for Social Protection and Labor interventions that are both context-specific and adaptable, capable of mitigating diverse risks and fostering resilience across the full income and FCV spectrum. Social Protection and Labor systems must then adapt to varied functions, serving as a preventive mechanism in at-risk settings, a delivery platform for resilience building in active conflict zones, and a stabilizing foundation for recovery in post-conflict situations. Figure 1.1 Projections: Number of extreme poor in FCV and non-FCV settings globally. Source: World Bank Group FCV Strategy 2020-2025 The international response to FCV has disproportionately relied on humanitarian assistance. While this support is vital for addressing acute emergencies, it is inherently short-term and ill-equipped to tackle the structural drivers of fragility or to build long-term resilience, recovery, and development. Yet, despite its limitations, humanitarian aid has become the de facto long-term solution in many protracted crises. In 2022, countries experiencing prolonged crises received 92 percent of global humanitarian funding (US$32.8 billion), underscoring this trend. Meanwhile, development assistance—better suited to address systemic challenges—declined in both volume and share between 2017 and 2021. This mismatch between the nature of the response and the needs of protracted crises reveals a systemic contradiction in the global approach to FCV. Breaking the cycle of fragility requires a proactive shift from over-reliance on short-term humanitarian relief toward sustained investments in government-owned Social Protection and Labor systems. These systems offer a critical pathway to stabilize livelihoods, protect human capital, and reach the poorest and most marginalized populations, contributing not only to poverty reduction and resilience-building but also to strengthened social cohesion and trust in institutions. These outcomes are critical for addressing drivers of fragility and conflict in at-risk countries and supporting resilience and recovery in conflict-affected 8 OECD (2023) More effective development co-operation and fragility DAC perspectives on effective development co- operation, https://one.oecd.org/document/DCD/DAC(2023)40/en/pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 10 settings. Well-designed and scalable Social Protection and Labor systems can serve as a delivery platform that can support a range of programs and services, including economic inclusion measures, human capital development, psychological support, and social cohesion initiatives. There is growing recognition that addressing fragility and protracted crises requires more than emergency relief; it demands long-term investments in people, institutions, and systems. Operational experiences in Yemen and Somalia show that, even amid active conflict, it is possible to begin system-building efforts and progressively align humanitarian delivery with sustainable, government-driven social protection. Such a transition is critical for breaking the cycle of vulnerability and laying the foundation for resilience, sustainable recovery, and transition. Among the various Social Protection and Labor instruments, social safety nets and economic inclusion programs have proven particularly effective in FCV settings, offering high-impact solutions with both immediate and long-term benefits. Global evidence has demonstrated that regular cash transfers can improve household welfare, human capital, food security, and livelihoods. Recent findings from FCV contexts such as the Sahel and Yemen reinforce this evidence, demonstrating the adaptability and effectiveness of safety nets in challenging environments. When combined with regular safety nets, economic inclusion measures—such as micro-entrepreneurship and life skills training, savings groups, coaching, psychological support, and start-up grants—have demonstrated lasting impacts, including improved household resilience to climatic shocks, enhanced employment opportunities, and increased women’s empowerment. Additionally, these interventions generate positive spillovers, stimulating local markets and building institutional trust, which are key to fostering social cohesion, resilience, and long-term recovery.9 The shift toward development approaches is especially urgent in the current context of a changing global aid landscape and increasing financial pressures. As key donors reduce their financing footprint, FCV countries are likely to face growing resource constraints. Investing in nationally led Social Protection and Labor systems presents an opportunity to develop more cost-effective, sustainable responses,10 which can be financed through domestic resources over time.11 In In a context of evolving this context, the World Bank’s support can play a catalytic aid dynamics and role by helping governments and donors rebalance tightening resources, from humanitarian to development approaches and strengthening nationally promote public-private partnerships in developing and led social protection scaling innovations in delivering social protection and labor programs, such as digital platforms, financial and and labor systems offers economic inclusion interventions. By focusing resources on a pathway to more high-impact interventions and building a strong evidence sustainable and efficient base on what works in FCV settings, this approach can development responses. drive more resilience and sustainable systems that support long-term development outcomes in FCV situations. 9 Fuselli, S., Saidi, M., Ghorpade, Y., Agostini, S., Laville, C. (2024) The impact of social safety nets on economic, social, and political outcomes in fragile, conflict, and violent contexts: A review of evidence, SASPP technical paper series, World Bank, https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42670 10 Cabot Venton, C. (2020) Economics of early response and resilience to COVID-19: Ethiopia, SPACE, https://socialprotection. org/discover/publications/space-economics-early-response-and-resilience-covid-19-ethiopia 11 Cabot Venton, C. (2022) Passing the Buck: The economics of localizing international assistance, https://thesharetrust.org/ resources/2022/11/14/passing-the-buck-the-economics-of-localizing-international-assistance PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 11 Recognizing the central role of social protection in FCV—not only as a lifeline for the poorest, but also as a stabilizing force that promotes social cohesion and resilience—the World Bank has steadily deepened its Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV. Between FY18 and FY22, the share of the Bank’s Social Protection and Labor portfolio in FCV contexts more than doubled, rising from 7 percent to 16 percent, with investments increasing from US$1.81 billion to US$11.2 billion—the most significant growth across all Practice Groups.[1] As of June 2024, Social Protection and Labor has 35 active operations spanning 25 of the 39 countries on the WBG’s FY25 FCS list. Nearly 40 percent of the Bank’s global Social Protection and Labor portfolio—amounting to $11.5 billion—is dedicated to FCV settings, underscoring both the scale of demand and the critical role Social Protection and Labor plays in responding to crisis and laying the groundwork for prevention and recovery. Pre-crisis investments in robust Social Protection and Labor systems enable faster, more effective responses when crises occur and are a central pillar of strategies to enhance resilience, as well as prevent and mitigate fragility and conflict escalation. Figure 1.2 Share of WB Portfolio Volume in FCS by Global Practice (FY18-22) Source: Mid-Term Review of the World Bank Group Strategy for Fragility, Conflict, and Violence (2020–25) Yet, delivering Social Protection and Labor programs in FCV settings remains deeply complex, requiring more than conventional programming and operational approaches. Volatile political dynamics, institutional fragility, and fluid security environments demand a strategic approach that is FCV-sensitive and grounded in flexibility, adaptability, and long-term vision. While the World Bank’s Social Protection and Labor Strategy positions resilience as a core pillar, it does not sufficiently address the specific operational and policy challenges of working in FCV environments.12 In the absence of a clear and coherent framework to guide social protection and labor system support, the engagement in these contexts risk fragmentation, missed opportunities, and diminished impact in settings where needs are greatest and risks and vulnerability are highest. 12 World Bank Group. 2022. Charting a course towards universal social protection: Resilience, equity, and opportunity for all. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/38031 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 12 This Approach Paper addresses that need by presenting a structured framework to guide Social Protection and Labor engagements in FCV contexts. Anchored in the World Bank’s operational experience, emerging evidence, and evolving global practice, this Approach Paper proposes a forward-looking framework for building and sustaining national Social Protection and Labor systems in the most challenging contexts. The framework emphasizes the role of social protection in safeguarding human capital, building resilience, and enhancing institutional capacity amid protracted crises. It is intended to guide World Bank teams, partner governments, and development and humanitarian actors in delivering more coherent, impactful, and sustainable Social Protection and Labor interventions across the FCV spectrum. The Paper identifies strategic focus areas and operational pathways to build scalable, effective and context-specific Social Protection and Labor systems. It aims to enhance the impact of Social Protection and Labor programs by delivering timely support to address urgent needs, while also promoting long-term development and system building. Central to this vision is the understanding that people in FCV settings cannot wait for peace to rebuild their lives—they need support now to protect their health, education, livelihoods, and future opportunities. Achieving this requires a long-term, nationally anchored approach that strengthens institutions and fosters inclusion. The Approach Paper builds on the World Bank’s 2020-2025 FCV Strategy, translating its overarching principles into a structured framework for Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV settings. The Strategy—anchored in four pillars: (i) preventing violent conflict and interpersonal violence, (ii) remaining engaged during crisis and active conflict, (iii) helping countries transition out of fragility, and (iv) mitigating the spillovers of FCV—has provided key direction for the World Bank’s engagement in these environments. World Bank’s Social Protection and Labor interventions have directly benefited from this strategic orientation, with the Strategy highlighting their central role in addressing inequality, exclusion, and human capital erosion, which are key drivers and consequences of fragility and conflict. The Strategy has also provided a set of principles to shape Social Protection and Labor engagement in these complex settings. As the global landscape becomes increasingly volatile, there is a pressing need for a more operationally structured Social Protection and Labor approach. The upcoming World Bank’s FCV Strategy is expected to reflect this changing reality, offering an opportunity to further strengthen the role of Social Protection and Labor in FCV environments. This Approach Paper responds to that opportunity, providing a practical and adaptive framework for Social Protection and Labor engagement. It is intended as a living document, to be subsequently updated in alignment with the evolving FCV Strategy and the operational realities faced by World Bank teams and country counterparts. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 13 1.2 Methodology and Limitations The Approach Paper draws on a range of sources, including a desk review of global literature, a portfolio analysis of the World Bank’s active Social Protection operations as of June 2024, and a review of operational experience, project documentation, and analytical work undertaken by the World Bank across a diverse range of FCV-affected countries. The methodology combines qualitative case study analysis with a synthesis of lessons from country engagements across eight illustrative pathways of operational engagement. The pathways were inspired by an iterative process of reviewing social protection programming in FCV contexts and distilling common patterns in operational conditions, engagement models, and institutional arrangements. To substantiate each pathway toward building Social Protection and Labor systems, country-specific case studies were developed. Case study development drew on a wide range of project documentation, including implementation reports, project appraisal documents, and supervision data, as well as interviews with World Bank Task Teams and other key stakeholders, including humanitarian actors, development partners, and government staff/officials. A total of 61 interviews were conducted as part of this exercise to supplement key insights gathered through the desk review. Case selection was drawn from the World Bank’s List of Fragile, Conflict, and Violence-affected Situations (FCS) for fiscal year (FY) 2025, integrated by measures of variations in the maturity of the social protection system. While FCV challenges can affect countries beyond those formally classified as FCS, the list served as a practical methodological tool for structured analysis. As such, the insights and lessons captured in the Paper have broader relevance and can inform Social Protection and Labor engagement in other FCV-affected countries not currently on the FY25 FCS list. The Approach Paper was also informed by a structured process of internal and external consultations to ensure its strategic relevance and operational utility. Two consultation rounds were conducted— first at the concept stage and then on the draft version—engaging a wide range of stakeholders. In total, 12 consultations were held with World Bank Social Protection teams at the global and regional levels, the FCV and Gender Groups, and key external partners, including FCDO, USAID, NORAD, and the SPIAC-B Working Group on Linking Humanitarian with Social Protection. A final round of consultations is planned prior to the publication to validate the final version. These consultations aim to strengthen the Paper’s grounding in country-level realities and leverage its insights to engage with client governments, development and humanitarian partners, and NGOs operating in the FCV space. It will also inform and align with the upcoming FCV Strategy. The Paper aims to support engagements across the FCV spectrum, with a deliberate emphasis on conflict-affected contexts. While recognizing the broader dimensions of fragility, including institutional, social, and economic dimensions, the Paper places a special focus on conflict-affected contexts for two key reasons. First, these settings present the most severe operational challenges, requiring greater contextual adaptation and innovative engagement models. Second, the majority of World Bank Social Protection and Labor financing in FCV settings has been directed toward conflict-affected countries, underscoring their strategic and operational relevance. As such, although the framework is relevant across the full FCV spectrum, including non-conflict fragile settings such as Papua New Guinea and Chad, it places particular emphasis on countries experiencing or recovering from conflict. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 14 Finally, it is important to note that this Paper is not intended to serve as an exhaustive guide or a step-by-step implementation manual. For detailed operational guidance and practical tools to support implementation, readers are referred to the World Bank’s recent publication “A Guide to Implementing Social Safety Nets in Fragile, Conflict, and Violent Contexts: Adaptive Strategies and Approaches to World Bank Safety Net Delivery Amid Challenges.” Together, the Approach Paper and the Guide provide a coherent foundation for more effective, context-sensitive, and sustainable Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV settings. 1.3 Structure of the Approach Paper The Approach Paper is structured in five main sections. Following the introduction in Section 1 that frames the need for a strategic approach to Social Protection and Labor engagements in FCV settings, Section 2 outlines the multidimensional impacts of FCV on poverty, food insecurity, displacement, service delivery, and social cohesion—highlighting the complex challenges that these contexts pose to human development and the critical need for adaptive, resilient social protection systems. Section 3 constitutes the core of the Approach Paper, outlining the strategic framework that is underpinned by three strategic objectives to guide policy and programmatic choices, as well as eight distinct pathways for operational engagement. Each pathway is defined by specific contextual conditions, entry points, and implementation modalities, and a country example supports it. Section 4 concludes with a forward-looking agenda, highlighting policy and operational implications for scaling and sustaining social protection investments in FCV environments. Finally, Annex 1 presents eight illustrative country cases from the World Bank’s ongoing engagements, each demonstrating how each of the eight operational pathways is implemented in practice. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 15 II. UNDERSTANDING FCV CHALLENGES AND THEIR IMPACT ON PEOPLE, COMMUNITIES, AND INSTITUTIONS FCV acts as a risk multiplier, intensifying existing vulnerabilities and generating new ones. These interlinked challenges disrupt social stability, stall economic progress, and erode institutional capacity, leading to governance breakdown, political instability, prolonged conflicts, displacement, and social fragmentation, with countries often facing multiple and overlapping crises.13 These dynamics reinforce one another in a self-perpetuating cycle of fragility and vulnerability that is difficult to escape without intentional and persistent actions. Effective responses must focus on building resilience, restoring trust, and strengthening institutional foundations for long-term recovery. Figure 2.1 The Reinforcing Cycle of FCV and Vulnerability Source: Author’s own elaboration 13 Stemmler, H., Kofi Tetteh Baah, S., Genoni, M., Lakner, C. (2024) The polycrisis behind a lost decade of poverty reduction, https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/opendata/the-polycrisis-behind-a-lost-decade-of-poverty-reduction PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 16 This cycle is evident in the way fragility and conflict undermine economies and livelihoods. In FCV situations, businesses shut down due to economic collapse, infrastructure destruction, and security risks, while worker displacement and resource depletion further weaken employment. Financial instability, the diversion of public financing away from development spending, and reduced consumer demand exacerbate job losses, fueling a vicious cycle in which poverty, fragility, and conflict reinforce one another. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, for instance, pushed Ukraine’s poverty rate from 20.6 percent in 2021 to 35.5 percent in 2023.14 In Yemen, real GDP per capita declined by 54 percent between 2015 and 2023,15 accompanied by an estimated rise in poverty from 48.6 percent to 74 percent. Similarly, by 2024, GDP had contracted by 27 percent across the Palestinian economy and by 83 percent in Gaza, where nearly every resident now lives in poverty.16 The impact of FCV on food security further amplifies these economic and social disruptions. Many FCV countries are also food insecurity hotspots, affected by conflict, environmental degradation, and weak governance. Of the 27 contexts identified as ecological threat hotspots by the Institute for Economics and Peace, 11 are classified as experiencing high fragility and 16 as experiencing extreme fragility on the OECD fragility framework,17 and of the 39 FCS countries identified by the World Bank for FY25,18 17 are hunger hotspots.19 In Yemen, nearly half of the population faced acute food insecurity in 2025.20 Somalia has seen 3.6 million people affected by food insecurity in 2024 alone, while 45 percent of children under five were acutely malnourished in 2022.21 These compounding crises reflect a broader trend in which food insecurity both stems from and contributes to fragility, often leaving populations more vulnerable to shocks. Climate change is intensifying these vulnerabilities and has become a critical amplifier of fragility with significant implications on human capital and productivity. Its effects extend beyond extreme weather events to include complex feedback loops between environmental stress, displacement, and conflict. Many FCV countries, such as Myanmar and Haiti, are also among the most climate-vulnerable, having ranked high in global climate risk indices over the past two decades.22 Repeated climate shocks in Yemen, 14 World Bank, the Government of Ukraine, the European Union, the United Nations (2025) Ukraine Fourth Rapid Damage and Needs Assessment (RDNA4), https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/ documentdetail/099022025114040022 15 World Bank (2024). Press release: Yemen’s economy faces mounting crises: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/press- release/2024/06/26/yemen-s-economy-faces-mounting-crises-report 16 World Bank (2024), Note on the impacts of the conflict in the Middle East on the Palestinian economy – April 2025. Washington, DC. 17 Institute for Economics & Peace (2024), Ecological threat report 2024: Analysing ecological threats, resilience & peace, https://www.economicsandpeace.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/ETR-2024-web.pdf 18 World Bank FY25 FCS list. https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/b3c737c4687db176ec98f5c434d0de91-0090082024/ original/FCSListFY25.pdf 19 WFP and FAO. 2024. Hunger hotspots. FAO–WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity: June to October 2024 Outlook. Rome. https://docs.wfp.org/api/documents/WFP-0000159235/download/?_ga=2.238196032.1315077256.1729712078- 1125211289.1728498596 20 UN (2025) Yemen, Humanitarian needs and response plan 2025, https://yemen.un.org/en/287505-yemen-humanitarian- needs-and-response-plan-2025-january-2025 21 Federal Government of Somalia (2023) Somalia preparedness plan for food and nutrition security crises, https://thedocs. worldbank.org/en/doc/3da165e0bcb0ed7dddba9939afb21fda-0590012023/related/Somalia-Preparedness-Plan-for-Food- and-Nutrit.pdf 22 GermanWatch (2021) Global climate risk index 2021, https://www.germanwatch.org/en/19777 PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 17 Somalia, and Ethiopia, including droughts, floods, and locust invasions, have deepened food insecurity and worsened humanitarian conditions. These stresses have particularly long-term consequences for children, whose stunted growth and compromised development reduce productivity, erode national human capital, and hinder sustainable recovery.23 The mutually reinforcing nature of climate shocks and violent conflict underscores the need for integrated approaches that build climate resilience into development and social protection strategies. Environmental and conflict-related pressures also drive growing displacement. FCV settings are often both the origin and destination of most of the world’s forcibly displaced people. Nearly 80 percent of all refugees and internally displaced persons (IDPs) come from FCS countries, and 64 percent are hosted within them, placing further pressure on already strained institutions and public services.24 Recent displacement crises illustrate the scale and complexity of the challenge. As of June 2025, the conflict in Sudan has uprooted over 12 million people.25 In Ukraine, 10.8 million have been displaced by the war—including 6.2 million refugees and 4.6 million IDPs—as of December 2024. 26 At its peak in 2021, the Tigray and Afar conflict in Ethiopia (2020–2022) displaced around 5.1 million people, 27 while Chad hosted more than 1.44 million refugees from neighboring countries28 and an additional 225,689 IDPs as of September 2025.29 The impacts of displacement are profound, and Social Protection and Labor systems can play a transformative role in displacement-affected settings. Displacement disrupts livelihoods, weakens social cohesion, and overwhelms already fragile public services. Access to education, healthcare, and social protection becomes severely limited. Women and girls are especially at risk, facing heightened exposure to gender-based violence (GBV), early marriage, and exploitation. Well-designed Social Protection and Labor systems can play a pivotal role in displacement-affected contexts. They can be adapted to include displaced populations, particularly refugees and IDPs, at scale, contributing to restored or maintained social cohesion and facilitating access to socio-economic opportunities. Evidence from the African Great Lakes Region demonstrates the feasibility of building inclusive Social Protection and Labor systems that integrate displaced populations, offering a foundation for resilience and stability (Spotlight). 23 Sabates-Wheeler, R., Vasilov, C., Hoppenbrouwers, M., Lind, J. (2025) The role of social and humanitarian assistance for supporting lives and livelihoods during the 2021‒22 Tigray crisis, BASIC Research Working Paper 33, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, DOI: 10.19088/BASIC.2024.024 24 World Bank Group (2023) Mid-term review of the World Bank Group strategy for fragility, conflict, and violence (2020– 2025). https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/fragilityconflictviolence/publication/fragilit-conflict-and-violence-mid-term- review 25 UNHCR Sudan operational data portal, https://data.unhcr.org/en/situations/sudansituation OCHA (2025) Sudan regional displacement crisis, https://reliefweb.int/topic/sudan-regional-displacement-crisis 26 UN High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR), Operational Data Portal; Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights (OHCHR) (2024) Protection of Civilians in Armed Conflict—December 2024, January 7, 2024 27 Internal Displacement Monitoring Center (IDMC), 2022 Overview, https://www.internal-displacement.org/countries/ ethiopia/ 28 UNHCR Chad Operational Data Portal, https://data.unhcr.org/en/country/tcd 29 International Organization for Migration, IOM Displacement Tracking Matrix - Chad. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 18 Spotlight: Addressing the Protracted Refugee Crisis in the African Great Lakes Region (GLR) through Social Protection and Labor The GLR faces significant development challenges with cyclical conflict dynamics driving continuing refugee numbers—rising from 480,000 in 2013 to more than 2.5 million by the end of 2024—with an average exile duration of 17 years. This protracted crisis demands development-focused strategies and approaches to deepen refugee inclusion into national social protection and labor systems, enhance resilience, social integration, and socioeconomic growth, while reducing tensions with host communities. This approach is being explored in the GLR, offering valuable lessons despite existing challenges. Strategic Funding for Refugee Integration into Development-Focused Response The World Bank (WB), through its IDA18/19/20 Window for Host Communities and Refugees (WHR), has committed approx. US$1.3 billion to GLR countries (26.4% of total WHR funding), including US$600 million for Social Protection and Labor to include refugees into national Social Protection and Labor systems. Operational and Policy Innovations The WB plays a crucial role in strengthening GLR governments’ ability to manage refugee crises by providing innovative policy and operational support—including developing Social Protection and Labor policies and strengthening institutional frameworks i.e. the creation of social registries in Burundi and the DRC to include refugees into Social Protection and Labor programs. Key flagship programs like Merankabandi in Burundi and STEP in DRC have adapted their approaches to include refugees, promoting social cohesion and cooperation with host communities and providing integrated packages of cash transfers, public works and livelihoods support to boost inclusion and self-empowerment. Partnerships and Coordination Collaboration with UNHCR and the Joint Data Centre (JDC) have produced critical data to inform national planning processes and strategies. However, coordination gaps persist—particularly between humanitarian databases and national Social Protection and Labor systems—leading to fragmented and incomplete approaches. Key Challenges and Path Forward Low national Social Protection and Labor spending, fragmented data systems, and legal/policy barriers hinder refugee inclusion. Currently, only Burundi and DRC plan to integrate refugees into Social Protection registries. Addressing protracted refugee situations and transforming Social Protection and Labor systems into long-term solutions requires legal and policy reforms, innovative and flexible financing (e.g., WHR flexibility, regional funds), system adaptations (cross-border payments, transnational Social Protection programs), and enhanced data sharing. This integrated, development-focused approach is vital for refugee self-reliance, host community cohesion, and poverty alleviation in the GLR. Source: Christopher Gabelle, Jordi Gallego-Ayala et al, Social Protection Systems for Refugees in the Great Lakes Region, World Bank 2025 (forthcoming). PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 19 The erosion of state capacity in FCV settings compounds these challenges, crippling public services and governance systems. As conflict and displacement damage infrastructure and deplete skilled human resources, access to education, healthcare, and social protection becomes severely limited. In South Sudan, more than 70 percent of school-aged children—particularly girls—are out of school.30 In Yemen, nearly 18 million people need healthcare support, and 4.5 million children are out of school.31 Sudan’s ongoing conflict has forced more than 17 million children out of school and crippled the healthcare system, with vaccination coverage falling drastically in affected regions.32 As formal institutions weaken, illicit economies and armed groups exploit the resulting governance vacuums, fueling further instability. Fragility not only diverts public financing from essential services but also erodes access to formal protections, pushing the poorest to depend on informal, often exploitative systems. Women and girls face heightened risks of GBV, early and forced marriage, and systemic exclusion from economic, educational, and civic opportunities. Conflict-related sexual violence inflicts long-lasting trauma, while fragile or disrupted health systems contribute to alarmingly high maternal mortality rates, with three-quarters of maternal deaths occurring in fragile settings every year. Harmful social norms compound these challenges, limiting women’s agency and reinforcing cycles of exclusion. Global gender equality indicators starkly reflect these dynamics. Nearly all of the 10 lowest-ranking countries on global gender equality indicators are FCV-affected, underscoring how conflict and fragility severely hinder progress toward equality and inclusion (Figure 2.2).33 Despite evidence that women’s participation improves peace outcomes,34 they are often excluded from peace negotiations, governance, and recovery planning. Additionally, gender inequality and restrictive gender norms, such as those linked to masculinity, act as a multiplier of fragility, conflict, and violence, hindering inclusive recovery and development. 30 UNICEF South Sudan, Education, https://www.unicef.org/southsudan/what-we-do/education 31 UNICEF Yemen appeal humanitarian action for children, https://www.unicef.org/appeals/yemen 32 OCHA (2024) Sudan humanitarian needs and response plan 2025 - Executive Summary (Issued December 2024), https:// www.unocha.org/publications/report/sudan/sudan-humanitarian-needs-and-response-plan-2025-executive-summary- december-2024-enar 33 Hanmer, L., Ekhator-Mobayode, U., Al-AhMadi, A., Rawlings, L. (2023) Increasing gender equality in fragile, conflict and violence settings, World Bank Gender Thematic Policy Note Series, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099649304152439006/pdf/IDU16b76f38812840142551bdcd1c8a31dc08add.pdf 34 O’Reilly, M., Ó Súilleabháin, A., Paffenholz, T (2015) Reimagining peacemaking: Women’s roles in peace processes, https://www.ipinst.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/06/IPI-E-pub-Reimagining-Peacemaking.pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 20 Figure 2.2 Countries with the lowest performance globally on selected gender indicators Figure 2.2 Countries with the lowest performance globally on selected gender indicators Panel A Panel B Maternal mortality ratio (national estimate, per Women making their own informed decisions 100,000 live births): 10 worst performers regarding sexual relations, contraceptive use, and reproductive health care (% of women aged 15‒49): 10 worst performers Sierra Leone Chad Senegal Nigeria Niger Afghanistan Mali Mauritania Burkina Faso Liberia Comoros Guinea-Bissau Cote d'Ivoire Congo, Rep. Guinea Chad Cameroon Guinea Eritrea Togo -200 300 800 1300 1800 0 10 20 30 Panel C Panel D School enrollment, secondary (gross), gender parity Financial institution account, female (% age index (GPI): Bottom 10 countries 15+): 10 worst performers Chad South Sudan South Sudan Afghanistan Congo, Dem. Rep. Somalia Angola Guinea Burundi Central African Republic Yemen, Rep. Niger Togo Niger Djibouti 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0 2 4 6 8 10 Source: Hanmer, L., Ekhator-Mobayode, U., Al-AhMadi, A., Rawlings, L. (2023) Increasing gender equality in fragile, conflict, and violence settings, World Bank Gender Thematic Policy Note Series Note: Indicators are for latest year. Countries in orange have appeared on the World Bank’s Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations (FCS) list between 2016 and 2023. Countries in blue have not appeared on the FCS list. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 21 Youth in conflict-affected settings face similarly acute challenges, often leading to exploitation and recruitment by armed groups. Approximately 30 percent of the world’s youth reside in fragile states, where limited access to education, employment, and civic participation perpetuates exclusion and fuels frustration. These conditions can create entry points for potential involvement in violence through recruitment into armed groups and extremist networks.35 In Somalia, for example, youth marginalized by a fractured social contract and intercommunal divisions have often been targeted and co-opted by armed groups, including Al Shabaab.36 A World Bank study37 on youth resilience to radicalization in Tajikistan found that while socioeconomic grievances alone do not cause radicalization, they increase vulnerability, particularly among out-of-school, unemployed young men aged 14-26, when coupled with targeted recruitment. As the study highlights, addressing youth exclusion and related grievances requires prevention strategies, including engagement of families, improved access to education and jobs, school-based programs, and psychosocial support. Without such efforts, youth exclusion risks perpetuating cycles of violence and instability, while depriving countries of the demographic dividend essential for long-term recovery, peace, and inclusive growth. ​ FCV erode social cohesion and lead to the weakening of the state-citizen relationship.38 Economic disparities, competition over scarce resources, and perceived or actual injustices, often rooted in social exclusion, fuel pre-existing tensions. Prolonged violence and instability undermine traditional conflict- resolution mechanisms, making it difficult to achieve or restore trust, reconciliation, and social repair. In this context, recovery initiatives must address the structural drivers of fragility, including gender inequality and systemic exclusion, while adopting conflict-sensitive approaches that avoid exacerbating tensions and divisions in polarized environments. Community-based and participatory approaches can offer a promising avenue to mitigate fragility and strengthen cohesion. By engaging citizens in planning, implementation, and monitoring of development initiatives, these approaches can improve service delivery, enhance legitimacy, and promote forms of inclusive governance. Initiatives that promote gender equality, strengthen local institutions, and foster inclusive dialogue can also help reduce perceptions of injustice and foster social cohesion by supporting the equitable distribution of resources.39 However, evidence of their effectiveness in FCV settings remains mixed, underscoring the need for continued adaptation, learning, and contextualization.40 35 UN (2020) World youth report, https://www.un.org/development/desa/youth/wp-content/uploads/sites/21/2020/10/ WYR2020-Chapter2.pdf 36 UNSOM (2017) Countering Al-Shabaab propaganda and recruitment mechanisms in South Central Somalia, UN Assistance Mission in Somalia, https://reliefweb.int/report/somalia/countering-al-shabaab-propaganda-and-recruitment- mechanisms-south-central-somalia 37 World Bank Group (2020) Strengthening youth resilience to radicalization, evidence from Tajikistan, https://documents1. worldbank.org/curated/en/327951586870202514/pdf/Strengthening-Youth-Resilience-to-Radicalization-Evidence-from- Tajikistan.pdf 38 Cloutier, M., Ngom, O., Darkwa-Poku, Y. (2023) How can frayed social contracts in West Africa be mended?, https://blogs. worldbank.org/en/governance/how-can-frayed-social-contracts-west-africa-be-mended 39 World Bank (2020) World Bank Group strategy for fragility, conflict, and violence 2020–2025 (Vol. 1 of 2) (English). Washington, D.C : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/844591582815510521 40 Cloutier, M., Bove, A., Zovighian, D. (2024) Should we focus on policy processes or outcomes to build trust in institutions?, https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/governance/should-we-focus-on-policy-processes-or-outcomes-to-build-trust-i and Holmlund, M. and Rao, V. (2021) Where and when is Community-Driven Development (CDD) effective?, https://blogs. worldbank.org/en/impactevaluations/where-and-when-community-driven-development-cdd-effective PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 22 Scalable and inclusive Social Protection and Labor systems can contribute significantly to breaking the cycle of fragility. These systems go beyond delivering short-term assistance. They can be leveraged to strengthen institutional capacity, safeguard livelihoods, and build public trust. In FCV settings, the poorest and most marginalized are disproportionately affected and least equipped to cope with shocks, further entrenching and deepening inequality. As such, Social Protection and Labor systems must be designed as platforms for long-term resilience, integrating sustainable financing, livelihood and jobs support, food security, and access to basic services, while contributing to broader institution-building and peacebuilding efforts. Meeting the World Bank’s target of reaching 500 million poor and vulnerable people with social protection by 2030 will require prioritizing FCV contexts, where development gains are most at risk and the need for support is most acute. Investing in inclusive, resilient, and government-led Social Protection and Labor systems is essential to help FCV-affected countries move toward peace, stability, and sustainable development. The following section outlines a strategic approach to achieving this goal. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 23 III. TOWARD A STRATEGIC APPROACH TO SOCIAL PROTECTION AND LABOR ENGAGEMENT IN FCV SETTINGS This section presents a strategic framework to guide Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV settings. The framework is grounded in the recognition that, even in the most challenging environments, it is both necessary and feasible to build and sustain nationally led systems. These systems are essential for enabling governments to deliver on their core mandate: protecting individuals and households from extreme poverty, vulnerability, and risks; providing access to essential support and services; and promoting their well-being, livelihood, and self-reliance by enabling them to invest in their future. The complexity of FCV contexts demands a distinct approach to Social Protection and Labor engagement. In contrast to stable settings, where Social Protection and Labor engagement pursues traditional poverty- reduction objectives, FCV contexts require a broader, more nuanced approach as well as informed trade- offs: determining not only which needs to address and what population groups to prioritize—given the often vast needs and limited resources—but also what objectives are both desirable and feasible within the constraints of the operating environment. Engagement must also account for heightened operational challenges. These include volatility and insecurity, institutional fragility, and limited administrative or territorial control by governments, and constrained delivery capacity. As such, the framework emphasizes the importance of identifying FCV-specific focus areas and objectives, viable entry points and pathways for engagement, understanding the security and political dynamics shaping design and implementation, and selecting instruments and delivery systems that are best suited to the context and objectives. “Prioritizing social protection systems to enhance human capital and productivity, fight poverty, reduce inequalities and contribute to social peace. Building social protection programs in line with state capacities, including social safety nets and cash transfers, are essential to promoting equity and to building resilience and opportunity. After a conflict, they ensure welfare in the short term, and they provide resources to local economies and people in the medium term. This allows households to invest in health, education, and nutrition, thus protecting human capital and reducing the incidence of poverty. Such programs can also discourage a renewal of conflict. Recent randomized trials in the Central African Republic, Côte d’Ivoire, Egypt, Liberia, and Uganda have yielded encouraging results, in terms of both livelihoods and conflict. The impact of cash transfers may be even stronger when combined with ancillary services such as mentoring or counseling. Evidence from cash transfer programs demonstrates that alleviating income constraints can reduce the incidence of violence and gender-based violence.” WBG’s FCV Strategy 2020-2025 PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 24 The proposed framework consists of two interconnected dimensions: • Strategic Dimension (“What”): This dimension defines the core objectives of Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV settings and identifies the core focus areas as well as instruments and policy tools most effective in achieving those objectives. It focuses on the role of social protection in protecting human capital, building resilience, and contributing to recovery and transition. • Operational Dimension (“How”): This dimension addresses the practical considerations of engagement in FCV environments, i.e., how to navigate security and institutional challenges; how to adapt Social Protection and Labor instruments, implementation arrangements, and delivery mechanisms to fragile and conflict situations; and how to design scalable interventions that promote household and institutional resilience. 3.1 Charting the Course: The Role of Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV settings is anchored in three strategic and interrelated Focus Areas: (i) Protecting and supporting the accumulation of human capital; (ii) Building resilience of individuals, households, and institutions; and (iii) Supporting transition and recovery processes. These Focus Areas represent high-level objectives that can be tailored to the specific risks, constraints, and windows of opportunity in different contexts, guiding the design and programming of FCV-responsive interventions. Collectively, they reflect the multifaceted role of Social Protection and Labor systems in both delivering immediate protection and enabling resilience building and long-term development in FCV environments. These three Focus Areas form a flexible continuum that can guide context-specific and adaptive engagement (Figure 3.1). They should not be interpreted as fixed or sequential stages, nor should they be rigidly corresponding to distinct types of FCV contexts. Depending on the country’s context, Social Protection and Labor engagement may address all three areas simultaneously or engage progressively across them as conditions evolve. Given the volatility and unpredictability inherent in FCV settings, movement across these Focus Areas is expected over time. Strategic and operational planning should therefore incorporate built-in adaptability, allowing for recalibration of objectives and instruments in response to changing conflict dynamics, institutional shifts, and emerging development opportunities. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 25 Figure 3.1 The Role of Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV FOCUS AREA 1: PROTECTING AND SUPPORTING THE ACCUMULATION OF HUMAN CAPITAL In FCV settings, protecting and investing in human capital is both an immediate necessity and a long- term imperative. Conflict, forced displacement, and systemic shocks can lead to loss of income and livelihoods, the collapse of education and health systems, malnutrition, and psychosocial trauma, depriving individuals of the fundamental assets needed for well-being and economic participation. These impacts impose both immediate human costs and carry profound long-term economic consequences by eroding productivity, widening inequality, and reinforcing structural exclusion, all of which weaken a country’s ability to grow, recover, and sustain peace. By sustaining human capital investments during and after crises, Social Protection and Labor systems can help position individuals, particularly children, women and youth, to contribute to future recovery and long-term development. Healthier, better-educated populations are more capable of participating in labor markets and contributing to household and national income growth. In FCV contexts, where physical and institutional capital is often severely depleted, human capital becomes a fundamental driver of recovery. Investments in nutrition, early childhood development, education continuity, and youth employment interventions pay dividends in strengthening resilience and promoting transition out of fragility.41 41 United Nations; World Bank (2018) Pathways for peace: Inclusive approaches to preventing violent conflict. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/28337 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO; Nixon, H., R. Mallett, and A. McCullough (2017) Are Public Services the Building Blocks of State Legitimacy? Input to the World Bank’s 2017 World Development Report. Working Paper 55, Word Bank; FAO (2024) Social protection as a pathway to sustaining peace. Rome. https://doi.org/10.4060/ cc9175en PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 26 Evidence from FCV contexts demonstrates the effectiveness of targeted Social Protection and Labor interventions in protecting human capital. In Burkina Faso, a regular safety net program increased household income from agricultural-related activities by 23.5 percent. In Niger, cash transfers resulted in a 10 percent increase in rural household consumption, reduced the depth of poverty by 9.4 percent, and increased the likelihood of beneficiaries participating in savings groups by 80 percent, demonstrating gains in both welfare and financial inclusion.42 In Yemen, an IFPRI impact evaluation of a cash-for-nutrition program revealed significant improvements in maternal and child dietary diversity, child weight-for-height, and child height-for-age, while reducing the probability of children being diagnosed with moderate or severe acute malnutrition.43 In Nigeria’s conflict-affected northeast,44 cash transfers linked to school attendance helped children re-engage in education and reduced early marriage among girls. In Somalia,45 where fragility and conflict are compounded by recurrent climate shocks, cash transfers combined with nutrition education and referral services have helped prevent famine, protect human capital, and foster trust in government institutions. Social protection is also a powerful lever for improving human capital outcomes for women and girls, who are disproportionately affected by FCV and often excluded from economic opportunities and decision-making. When inclusive and gender-responsive, Social Protection and Labor programs can break cycles of poverty and exclusion while addressing trauma and psychological needs.46 In the Sahel, an economic inclusion program targeting women significantly improved consumption, food security, savings, and income, while also enhancing mental health, social cohesion, and women’s empowerment. Targeted social protection Participants reported greater decision-making power, and labor programs in FCV increased self-worth, and improved trust within their communities. At the community level, the program settings have proven effective contributed to positive shifts in gender attitudes in protecting human capital, and perceptions regarding women’s economic strengthening livelihoods, and participation. In Haiti, safe spaces for women and 47 improving financial inclusion. 42 World Bank, Development Impact Evaluation (DIME) Impact of social protection and jobs policies in the Sahel, https:// thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/566a5518ddfbebf07a7ca55a790bcea7-0090012025/original/V8-DIME-BRIEF-DRAFT-DIME2- red.pdf 43 Kurdi, S. et al (2019) Responding to conflict: Does “cash plus” work for preventing malnutrition? New evidence from an impact evaluation of Yemen’s Cash for Nutrition Program, IFPRI, SFD and the World Bank; Kurdi, S., Ghorpade, Y. and Ibrahim, H. (2019). The cash for nutrition intervention in Yemen: Impact evaluation study. Regional Program Working Paper 19. IFPRI and the World Bank. https://cgspace.cgiar.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/6e825d9a- 9b4a-4adf-8e8a-7567417e3ad2/content 44 World Bank (2020) Project Appraisal Document, Adolescent girls initiative for learning and empowerment project, Report No: PAD3583, https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/613581596247523870/pdf/Nigeria-Adolescent-Girls- Initiative-for-Learning-and-Empowerment-Project.pdf 45 World Bank (2022) Developing a state-led social safety net system to boost human capital and build resilience in Somalia: The Baxnaano Program, https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2022/10/10/developing-a-state-led-social-safety-net- system-to-boost-human-capital-and-build-resilience-in-somalia-the-baxnaano-prog 46 Lind, J.; Sabates-Wheeler, R. and Szyp, C. (2023) Cash-plus programming in protracted crises: A review of programmes in contexts of overlapping conflict, forced displacement and climate-related shocks, BASIC Research Working Paper 19, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, DOI: 10.19088/BASIC.2023.001 47 Al-Ahmadi, A., Heinemann, A., Mossman, L., Rawlings, L. (2024) Accelerating gender equality through social protection, World Bank Gender Thematic Policy Note Series, Evidence and Practice Note https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099300010212431532/pdf/IDU-b23d689b-357e-441d-b81c-cd7af6f2ee42.pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 27 girls (WGSS) linked to Social Protection programs were a key entry point for addressing GBV.48 Social protection can also serve as a “gender equalizer,” by supporting women’s income through targeted cash transfers, recognizing and alleviating the burden of unpaid care work, and building resilience through livelihood support. Social protection programs targeted explicitly at youth can mitigate FCV-related risks while fostering human capital development. Youth-focused employment and entrepreneurship programs, alongside education-linked transfers for adolescent girls, help reduce exposure to negative coping strategies, including recruitment into armed groups, and foster trust. When combined with economic inclusion measures such as skills training, financial access, and market linkages, these programs can create pathways to sustainable livelihoods and job creation. In Niger, the Youth Employment and Productive Inclusion Project (PEJIP) provided a package of economic inclusion measures for young men and women aged 15-25. The program led to a 50 percent increase in income-generating activities (IGAs), especially among women, a 95 percent increase in profits, and improved asset ownership, including a 30 percent increase in livestock holdings. It also generated substantial improvements in mental health, food security, and a 180 percent increase in savings, while reducing migration among young men by 25 percent.49 These results underscore the potential for social protection to enhance youth well-being, economic resilience, and human capital accumulation in fragile settings. Addressing the psychological and social consequences of violence is equally critical to preserving human capital in FCV environments. Trauma—particularly among children, survivors of violence, and displaced populations—can severely hinder cognitive development, learning, and economic participation. Social protection programs that integrate psychosocial support, GBV referral services, and safe access to essential services can provide a lifeline, restoring dignity, agency, and trust. In Haiti and Papua New Guinea, social protection interventions have incorporated objectives to combat GBV and address its impacts, while in South Sudan, community-based discussion groups have proven effective in addressing harmful social norms that perpetuate GBV.50 Integrating social protection programs with essential To achieve lasting outcomes, social protection and services through unified labor programs must be integrated with essential services, facilitated through functioning case social registries and case management and, where feasible, integrated with management systems delivers interoperable systems such as social registries more comprehensive and and beneficiary databases. These systems provide lasting support to vulnerable more comprehensive support, linking vulnerable households. households with health, education, social protection, 48 Macphail, B. (2024) Giving girls and women in Haiti a safe space away from gender-based violence, https://blogs. worldbank.org/en/dev4peace/giving-girls-and-women-haiti-safe-space-away-gender-based-violence#:~:text=An%20 important%20part%20of%20this,and%20referrals%20for%20specialized%20care. 49 World Bank, DIME SPJ Sahel brief, https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/ doc/566a5518ddfbebf07a7ca55a790bcea7-0090012025/original/V8-DIME-BRIEF-DRAFT-DIME2-red.pdf 50 Al-Ahmadi, A. et al (2024) Accelerating Gender Equality Through Social Protection, https://documents1.worldbank.org/ curated/en/099300010212431532/pdf/IDU-b23d689b-357e-441d-b81c-cd7af6f2ee42.pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 28 and employment services. For example, in the West Bank and Gaza, social protection assistance and services are underpinned by a national Social Registry, which has been developed as a unified platform for registering and targeting vulnerable households. A Case Management System (CMS) complements the social registry by linking eligible households to essential services to address non-monetary determinants of poverty.51 Box 3.1: In Summary: Leveraging Social Protection and Labor systems to Reduce Fragility through Supporting Human Capital Accumulation 1. Protect and support the accumulation of human capital to foster stability Goal: Expand opportunities and capabilities for vulnerable populations to participate in social and economic development. • Scale up productive safety nets, school meals, nutrition, and livelihood support • Utilize social assistance as a platform to expand access to education and health services • Reduce perceived and actual inequality through inclusive approaches 2. Tackle GBV, Youth Exclusion & Trauma Goal: Promote social inclusion and disrupt cycles of violence and marginalization. • Integrate GBV referral services and psychosocial support • Target adolescent girls and youth with education, employment, and livelihood support • Support survivors and at-risk groups with safe, inclusive services through risk-informed processes 3. Build Integrated Systems for Lasting Impact Goal: Ensure coordinated, person-centered support • Link Social Protection programs with health, education, and employment/livelihoods • Use interoperable systems (e.g., social registries, case management) • Invest in institutional capacity and government leadership Prevention Link: Meeting basic needs, addressing exclusion and trauma, and building integrated, inclusive systems reduce vulnerability, mitigate tensions, and foster trust—helping prevent fragility and crisis escalation. 51 ILO (2024) Beyond the crisis: strengthening nexus coherence for social protection in the Occupied Palestinian Territory, https://www.ilo.org/resource/article/beyond-crisis-strengthening-nexus-coherence-social-protection-occupied and https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/099032625184027170/pdf/BOSIB-f714c246-fccb-4351-8ea5- d174dd151474.pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 29 FOCUS AREA 2: BUILDING RESILIENCE OF PEOPLE AND INSTITUTIONS In fragile and conflict-affected settings, building resilience is essential for enabling individuals, households, communities, and institutions to adapt to and withstand crises while reducing long-term vulnerability. The Approach Paper defines resilience as the ability of individuals, households, communities, institutions, and systems to mitigate, manage, adapt to, and recover from the impacts of FCV-induced shocks in ways that sustain well-being, preserve livelihoods, and promote recovery. Shocks and stressors in FCV contexts often disrupt income sources and livelihoods, undermining service delivery and eroding welfare, the social fabric, as well as public trust and state legitimacy. These same shocks can challenge the functionality of Social Protection and Labor systems, particularly where institutions and markets are already fragile. For instance, manual cash transfers and digital payments may face liquidity shortages, poor financial infrastructure, and regulatory or connectivity barriers, compromising the timeliness, security, and reach of benefit delivery. Inflation and currency instability can further reduce the real value of transfers, undermining their protective function. Meanwhile, local markets may be thin or dysfunctional due to insecurity, damaged infrastructure, or disrupted supply chains, which exacerbates price volatility and limits the availability and access to basic goods and services. Public works and livelihood programs may also struggle in FCV contexts, particularly where access to materials is limited and labor demand is weak. Social protection can play a pivotal role in strengthening resilience in FCV settings by providing timely, predictable, and inclusive support that helps restore livelihoods, promote self-reliance, and reinforce the capacity of institutions to function under stress. To be effective, interventions must be designed with a deep understanding of operational, institutional, and contextual constraints. This requires conflict- sensitive, market-informed, and operationally adaptive approaches. In particular, program design should be grounded in robust market and financial assessments to determine the feasibility of delivery modalities, such as cash or digital transfers, and identify supply-side constraints. In contexts with weak infrastructure or thin markets, hybrid delivery approaches may be necessary. Public works programs should target infrastructure that improves market access and connectivity, while livelihood support should be linked to existing or potential value chains. Close coordination with humanitarian actors and conflict specialists is essential to avoid market distortions and ensure interventions are context-appropriate. At the household level, adaptive social protection programs, including cash transfers and economic inclusion measures, have proven effective in building resilience. In Niger, the Adaptive Social Safety Net Project combined cash assistance with a comprehensive economic inclusion interventions, resulting in a 7 percent to 15 percent increase in household consumption, a 20 percent reduction in food insecurity, and a 59 percent to 100 percent rise in total revenues for women participants. Off-farm business revenues rose by 62 percent to 107 percent. Costing just US$251 per household, the intervention delivered economic returns exceeding its costs within 18 months—outcomes that doubled or tripled when psychosocial support was included.52 In Chad, the adaptive safety net program combined regular transfers with a lighter productive inclusion package of savings groups, micro-entrepreneurship, and a $75 grant. At a cost of $101 per household, it raised consumption by 13 percent, improved social well-being, increased women’s share of household revenue by 16 percent, shifted labor away from agriculture but with higher productivity, and boosted income-generating activity profits by 27 percent. 52 World Bank, DIME SPJ Sahel brief, https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/ doc/566a5518ddfbebf07a7ca55a790bcea7-0090012025/original/V8-DIME-BRIEF-DRAFT-DIME2-red.pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 30 These programs can also generate positive spillovers, such as stimulating local markets and enhancing trust in institutions. These are key factors in promoting resilience, social cohesion, and recovery. A 2018 impact evaluation of Chad’s pilot safety net program found that beneficiary households were significantly more likely to start businesses, acquire commercial assets, and increase income. More recently, in Chad, a 2024 randomized controlled trial (RCT) of a streamlined economic inclusion package, delivered alongside a regular cash transfer, showed substantial welfare gains not only for participants but also for non- beneficiaries, demonstrating the potential for positive community-wide impacts of safety net programs in FCV contexts.53 Economic inclusion interventions have also shown strong results in improving individual-level resilience in FCV environments. Economic inclusion measures can be integrated into “graduation” approaches, combining consumption support with skills training, business capital, coaching, financial inclusion, and links to markets. Their objective is to improve the productivity of the self-employed and establish pathways out of poverty, particularly for the most vulnerable groups, including the poor, women, and youth. Evidence from multiple government-implemented programs in FCV countries such as Afghanistan and Niger demonstrates notable gains: in Afghanistan, economic inclusion interventions led to a 32 percent increase in income; in Niger, business revenues rose by 107 percent. Both countries also saw improvement in food security and consumption (16 percent in Afghanistan and 15 percent in Niger). Beyond economic outcomes, these programs contributed to overall household resilience by diversifying women’s income- generating activities and enhancing mental health and psychosocial well-being.54 Public works programs can deliver a dual benefit: providing short-term wage employment while creating productive community assets that enhance local infrastructure and resilience. When paired with complementary measures, such as skills development, livelihood support, and entrepreneurship promotion, these programs can offer broader economic opportunities. Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP) exemplifies this model, offering temporary employment alongside long-term community asset creation, prioritizing the inclusion of female-headed households. Complementing the PNSP, the Urban Productive Safety Net Project (UPSNP) and its follow-on, the Urban Productive Safety Net and Jobs Project (UPSNJP), integrate public works with livelihood support, youth apprenticeships, and tailored services for vulnerable groups, including labor-constrained households. The program also promotes social and economic integration of host and refugee communities. Both programs are designed to strengthen both household and community resilience, while promoting social and economic inclusion. A 2023 impact assessment of the UPSNP reported increased household earnings and savings among urban beneficiaries, highlighting the potential of such programs to address both poverty and fragility.55 53 Fuselli, S. et al., The impact of social safety nets, https://hdl.handle.net/10986/42670 54 World Bank Group, The state of economic inclusion report 2024: Pathways to scale, https://openknowledge.worldbank. org/server/api/core/bitstreams/4f94ee11-7ff7-48c5-954d-e8ad37083572/content 55 Franklin, S., Imbert, C., Abebe, G., Mejia-Mantilla, C. (2024) Fighting urban poverty: Public works increase the welfare of the poor in Addis Ababa by 20%, https://voxdev.org/topic/social-protection/fighting-urban-poverty-public-works- increase-welfare-poor-addis-ababa-20#:~:text=Carolina%20Mejia%2DMantilla&text=A%20majority%20of%20the%20 population,first%20year%20of%20the%20programme. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 31 Strengthening resilience in FCV settings requires investments not only at the household level but also in the foundational systems that underpin Social Protection and Labor Programs delivery. At the system level, resilience hinges on the development of robust delivery infrastructure, coherent policy frameworks, and institutional capacity. FCV contexts demand simplified and scalable systems that can function under conditions of volatility, limited infrastructure, and weak governance. Effective coordination across government, humanitarian, development, and peacebuilding actors is therefore essential to ensure continuity and efficiency.56 Strategic investments in delivery systems such as digital payments, grievance redress mechanisms, and biometric registries enhance transparency and reduce leakage. In countries like the Central African Republic, Chad, and Haiti, targeted technical assistance has been critical to support the establishment of core building blocks national systems, bolstering state capacity to deliver basic services even in the face of operational challenges.57 When designed with conflict sensitivity, social protection programs can also contribute to social cohesion and mitigate the risk of further social instability. This is particularly relevant in regions like the Sahel, where the spillover of violence across borders remains a persistent threat. An often-overlooked component of resilient Social Protection and Labor systems is the social services workforce, including case workers, paraprofessionals, and volunteers, who serve on the frontlines of service delivery. In FCV settings, investing in the capacity of this workforce is critical for enabling responsive and sustained support that addresses the needs of the most vulnerable and challenges harmful social norms. A skilled and adequately supported workforce can improve case management, provide psychosocial support, and strengthen connections to complementary services, particularly those focused on gender equality and child protection. Gender- and youth-responsive systems further enhance resilience by addressing structural inequalities that fuel vulnerability. Tailored interventions, such as livelihood support, savings groups, and access to childcare, can advance women’s economic empowerment and reduce their exposure to GBV. For youth, linking social assistance to skills development, apprenticeships, and civic participation can reduce the risk of recruitment into armed groups and foster pathways to economic inclusion. Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo shows that a public works program significantly boosted women’s economic participation, with female participants more likely to increase their savings and engage in income-generating activities after the program ended. They also reported a 12-percentage point increase in business ownership—compared to 7 percentage points among men—underscoring the potential of gender- sensitive programming to catalyze resilience in FCV contexts.58 56 Phelps, L., Chandaria, S. (2025) Synthesising lessons and promising practices for country level coordination in delivery of joined-up humanitarian cash and social protection, Social Protection Technical Assistance, Advice and Resources (STAAR), DAI Global UK Ltd, United Kingdom, https://socialprotection.org/discover/publications/synthesising-lessons-and- promising-practices-country-level-coordination 57 World Bank (2024) Chad - Adaptive and Productive Safety Nets Project (English). Washington, D.C. : World Bank Group. http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099061124175525537 58 Al-Ahmadi, A. et al (2024) Accelerating gender equality through social protection, https://documents1.worldbank.org/ curated/en/099300010212431532/pdf/IDU-b23d689b-357e-441d-b81c-cd7af6f2ee42.pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 32 Box 3.2: In Summary: Key Social Protection and Labor Strategies to Strengthening Resilience 1. Design Adaptive and Scalable Social Protection Programs Goal: Build responsive systems that adjust to shocks and support long-term resilience. • Develop programs that scale in response to crises (e.g., lean season top-ups in Niger and Mali) • Integrate human capital, shock response, and economic inclusion (e.g., Somalia’s Baxnaano) • Ensure flexibility and preparedness through risk-informed design 2. Expand Productive Safety Nets and Economic Inclusion Goal: Rebuild livelihoods and promote self-reliance. • Create jobs and restore assets through labor-intensive public works (e.g., Ethiopia’s PSNP) • Pair social assistance with economic inclusion—skills, capital, and coaching—to support entrepreneurship • Support income generation and economic reintegration for crisis-affected populations 3. Strengthen Delivery Systems and Institutions Goal: Improve service delivery, coverage, and trust. • Invest in digital delivery systems (registries, biometric IDs, e-payments) to enhance efficiency • Simplify implementation in fragile settings and strengthen accountability • Coordinate across government, humanitarian, and development partners 4. Embed Inclusive Approaches for Women, Youth, and Displaced Populations Goal: Ensure equity and access for marginalized and vulnerable groups. • Support women with childcare, GBV services, and savings groups • Connect youth to jobs, apprenticeships, and community initiatives • Include displaced populations in programs and economic opportunities Resilience Link: These strategies enable people to absorb shocks, rebuild livelihoods, and access essential services—while helping governments respond effectively, foster inclusion, and rebuild trust. FOCUS AREA 3: SUPPORTING TRANSITION AND RECOVERY Social protection can play a critical role not only in mitigating crises and building resilience, but also in preventing conflict, supporting recovery, and enabling transitions out of fragility. As countries emerge from conflict or prolonged crisis, they often face interlinked challenges, including weakened institutions, societal fragmentation, economic disruption, deepened inequality, and diminished trust in the state. Well- designed Social Protection and Labor programs in such settings can provide an entry point for addressing these challenges, helping rebuild productive capacities, promote social cohesion, and lay the foundations for inclusive and sustainable development. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 33 Post-conflict recovery also depends on restoring productive assets and livelihoods and enabling pathways to self-reliance and integration, particularly for populations that have been displaced, demobilized, or marginalized. In Ethiopia, the PSNP has been instrumental in post-crisis recovery for its beneficiaries, providing public works, food, and cash transfers to help households rebuild assets lost during repeated shocks, including drought and conflict. This combination of support has enabled households to stabilize consumption, recover livelihoods, and reduce reliance on harmful coping strategies.59 Moreover, the PNSP includes a mechanism to scale out cash transfers to shock-affected individuals outside the program. Since 2021, it has cumulatively provided support to more than 15 million individuals. Similarly, in Timor-Leste the government placed Social Protection and Labor investments at the center of its post- conflict recovery and peacebuilding. Following internal conflict and displacement in the mid-2000s, the government introduced a series of social assistance programs beginning in 2007-2008, including a veteran pension, conditional cash transfers for mothers (Bolsa da Mãe), and an allowance for the Support of the Elderly and Invalid (SAII). These programs targeted the immediate needs of conflict-affected and displaced populations while promoting social cohesion and inclusion. Over time, the national Social Protection system has expanded to include a multi-pillar social security system, introducing universal social pensions for the elderly and people with disabilities, as well as contributory social security schemes for both formal and informal workers.60 In Colombia, Social Protection and Labor engagement Post-conflict recovery has supported the reintegration of ex-combatants as part of the peace accord implementation. Programs offering temporary hinges on restoring income support and vocational training have helped stabilize livelihoods and self- livelihoods, reduce the risk of recidivism or re-recruitment into reliance. Integrated armed groups, and foster reintegration into civilian life. In the 61 social protection helps DRC, reintegration programs for ex-combatants and displaced households rebuild persons have combined livelihood support with community- based reconciliation activities, helping restore social cohesion in assets and recover conflict-affected areas.62 In displacement-affected middle-income sustainably. countries such as Jordan63 and Lebanon,64 social assistance 59 Lind, J., Holland-Szyp, C., Sabates-Wheeler, R., Teshome, Y. and Naess, L. O. (2025) Can social protection programmes promote livelihoods and climate resilience in conflict-affected settings? Evidence from Ethiopia’s productive safety net programme, BASIC Research Working Paper 37, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, DOI: 10.19088/BASIC.2025.006 60 World Bank. 2022. Timor-Leste social protection review. © World Bank. https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/entities/ publication/84345587-e152-4855-b373-8566c31980fc License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO ; and Beazley, Rodolfo; Riquito, Carla; Jafino, Bramka Arga; Williams, Asha. 2023. Timor-Leste Adaptive social protection assessment. © World Bank. http://hdl. handle.net/10986/40691 License: CC BY-NC 3.0 IGO. 61 World Bank. 2008. Colombia - Peace programmatic I : Demobilization and reinsertion of ex-combatants in Colombia. © World Bank. http://hdl.handle.net/10986/7836 62 Congo, Democratic Republic of/AFRICA- P152903- DRC reinsertion and reintegration project - Procurement plan (Inglês), https://documents.worldbank.org/pt/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/809851532460465225/congo- democratic-republic-of-africa-p152903-drc-reinsertion-and-reintegration-project-procurement-plan 63 Global Compact on Refugees, Supporting education in Jordan for refugee and Jordanian children, https:// globalcompactrefugees.org/good-practices/supporting-education-jordan-refugee-and-jordanian-children 64 Smith, G. (2020) Linking CVA and social protection in the MENA Region – Lebanon case study, cash learning partnership CaLP, https://www.calpnetwork.org/publication/linking-cva-and-social-protection-in-the-mena-region-lebanon-case- study/; and https://conflictandhealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s13031-024-00600-w PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 34 programs that target both refugees and host communities have helped reduce social tensions while expanding access to basic services, including education and health. Moreover, countries such as Türkiye, Ethiopia, and Colombia are advancing efforts to integrate refugees and returnees into national Social Protection and Labor systems and local labor markets. These initiatives recognize the untapped potential of displaced populations as contributors to economic recovery. Many displaced individuals possess skills in demand by host countries, but often face administrative barriers, lack documentation, or are excluded from formal employment systems. Social Protection and Labor engagements in these countries have shown how tailored approaches, combining income support, legal and administrative facilitation, and labor market linkages, can facilitate economic integration, enhance productivity, and reduce social friction by benefiting both host and displaced populations. Beyond income support and livelihoods, social protection can also reinforce institutional accountability, transparency, and state presence, which are vital to rebuilding trust in government institutions.65 In Nigeria, the National Social Safety Nets Project leverages digital payments, secure biometric registration, and grievance redress mechanisms to ensure transparent and accountable delivery of cash transfers. These efforts are especially critical in the conflict-affected northeast, where public trust is fragile and the Boko Haram insurgency seeks to fill governance vacuums.66 Similarly, in Iraq, the Emergency Social Stabilization and Resilience Project introduced biometric IDs and digital cash assistance to reach vulnerable populations in areas affected by conflict and displacement. These mechanisms and systems have increased transparency while reinforcing the state’s presence and role in service delivery. In Papua New Guinea, a child grant has emerged as visible and appreciated symbol of the state at the local level, demonstrating how social protection can tangibly extend the state’s presence and address the local drivers of fragility.67 Strengthening local capacity and community engagement is another pillar of resilient and context- responsive social protection for recovery efforts. In contexts marked by institutional fragmentation and low trust in state institutions, leveraging local actors and fostering community ownership can enhance both program effectiveness and legitimacy. Yemen, the World Bank-supported Emergency Social Protection Enhancement and COVID-19 Response Project has partnered with local NGOs and community- based organizations to identify and support the most vulnerable. This localized approach has fostered local ownership in a highly fragmented conflict context. An evaluation in Yemen found that community- led interventions can increase trust in institutions and that national delivery institutions, such as the 65 Seferis, L. and Harvey, P. (2022) Accountability in crises: Connecting evidence from humanitarian and social protection approaches to social assistance, BASIC Research Working Paper 13, Brighton: Institute of Development Studies, DOI: 10.19088/BASIC.2022.013 66 World Bank (2021) Project Appraisal Document, Nigeria, National Social Safety Net Program - Scale-Up, Report No: PAD4674 , https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/717321706545772846/pdf/Nigeria-National-Social-Safety- Net-Program-Scale-Up-Project.pdf; Smith, G. (2025) Maintaining and strengthening social assistance systems in conflict settings: Sahel case study (Niger & Burkina Faso), Social Protection Technical Assistance, Advice and Resources (STAAR), DAI Global UK Ltd, United Kingdom, https://socialprotection.org/sites/default/files/publications_files/Sahel%20case%20 study%20FINAL.pdf 67 World Bank (2022) Project Appraisal Document, Child nutrition and social protection project, https://documents1. worldbank.org/curated/en/722551655323023167/pdf/Papua-New-Guinea-Child-Nutrition-and-Social-Protection-Project. pdf PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 35 Social Fund for Development (SFD), hold significant potential as vehicles for post-conflict recovery and state-building.68 Similarly, Liberia’s Social Safety Nets Project has implemented community validation of beneficiary lists and the use of local grievance redress committees, enhancing perceptions of fairness and trust among citizens.69 Engaging sub-national and non-state actors, including frontline workers, civil society, and the private sector, is particularly important in contexts where state capacity is limited or contested. World Bank-supported programs in Sudan and Yemen70, implemented in partnership with TPIs, illustrate the value of working through local technical units, district administrations, and community-level service providers. In Yemen, UNICEF has delivered a mother and child cash transfer program with support from the SFD and local actors and NGOs as implementing partners, enabling operational presence and continuity. Going forward, greater attention to strengthening the capacities of local civil society organizations, informal community-led mechanisms, and private sector actors can expand the reach and sustainability of social protection programs. In areas facing cross-border conflict dynamics, as seen in the Sahel, regional coordination and alignment with peacebuilding actors and initiatives are crucial for building systemic resilience. Government leadership and institutional strengthening remain essential to ensure long-term recovery and resilience. Especially in fragile or at-risk countries, investing in government capacity to lead, coordinate, and institutionalize social protection pays dividends. In Egypt, for example, the transition from broad food subsidies to targeted cash transfer programs such as Takaful and Karama helped the country weather the instability of the Arab Spring period. These programs enabled the government to deliver social assistance effectively at scale, reinforcing institutional capacity and strengthening the social contract at a time of critical reform and risk of spillovers from regional instability.71 In Haiti and Somalia, where recurrent shocks and institutional fragility pose persistent challenges, the Adaptive Social Protection Project (PSARA) and the Shock-Responsive Safety Net for Human Capital Project (SNHCP), respectively, have focused on system-building, developing social registries, shock-responsive delivery mechanisms, and adaptive targeting. These investments have laid the foundation for government-led responses that are flexible and scalable, thereby enabling governments to manage recurring crises more effectively and build long-term resilience. 68 Bertelli, O. et al (2019) Impacts on trust and social capital of a youth employment program in Yemen evaluation of the rural and urban advocates working for development intervention for the social fund for development, https://www.google. com/books/edition/Impacts_on_trust_and_social_capital_of_a/WXG-DwAAQBAJ?hl=en&gbpv=1&printsec=frontcover 69 World Bank (2023) Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) Implementation Completion Report (ICR) Review Social Safety Nets Project (P155293) 70 In both Sudan and Yemen, the World Bank is operating under World Bank Group’s Operational Policy OP7.30 on dealing with the de facto government. 71 Breisinger, C., Kassim, Y., Kurdi, S., Randriamamonjy, J., Thurlow, J., From food subsidies to cash transfers: Assessing economy-wide benefits and trade-offs in Egypt, Journal of African Economies, Volume 33, Issue 2, March 2024, Pages 109–129, https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejad006 PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 36 Box 3.3: In Summary: How Social Protection and Labor Programs Supports Transitions and Post-Conflict Recovery 1. Restoration of Livelihoods and Economic Reintegration Goal: Promote self-reliance and stability through inclusive livelihood recovery. • Restore lost livelihoods through public works, safety nets, and employment programs • Complement with economic inclusion, entrepreneurship, and skills training • Provide psychosocial support and reintegration assistance for women, youth, ex- combatants, and displaced individuals 2. Accountability, Transparency, and Trust in Institutions Goal: Strengthen service delivery and rebuild institutional legitimacy. • Use digital tools to improve delivery and oversight • Apply fair distribution practices and enable community feedback • Foster visible, equitable access to reinforce public trust 3. Inclusion of Displaced and Conflict-Affected Populations Goal: Ensure equitable support and foster social cohesion. • Extend assistance to refugees, IDPs, returnees, and ex-combatants • Integrate social protection with essential services and reconciliation initiatives • Support inclusive, community-driven approaches to recovery 4. Local Capacity Building and Community Engagement Goal: Strengthen local delivery and promote participatory recovery. • Engage local NGOs and community groups in delivering and targeting assistance • Use participatory mechanisms to enhance accountability and trust • Build capacity to manage and expand social protection at the local level 5. Reinforce National Systems and Government Leadership Goal: Transition to nationally owned, shock-responsive systems. • Support the shift from humanitarian aid to government-led delivery • Strengthen policy frameworks, institutional tools, and integrated platforms • Align efforts with national recovery and development priorities Recovery Link: Integrating jobs, inclusion, strong institutions, and national leadership lays the foundation for sustainable post-conflict recovery and long-term resilience. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 37 3.2 From Objectives to Action: Building Country-Owned Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV Settings In most contexts, country-owned systems remain the most effective vehicle for achieving social protection objectives. However, in FCV situations, these systems must be established and adapted based on the realities on the ground, which can include volatile security conditions, limited state presence, and weak institutional capacity. As a result, identifying appropriate entry points and engagement pathways is essential for tailoring Social Protection and Labor interventions to the specific dynamics of FCV contexts. Achieving the core objectives of social protection in FCV contexts—protecting human capital, building resilience, and supporting recovery and transition—requires translating strategic intent into operational reality. This demands more than technical solutions; it calls for a context-sensitive approach that reflects the nature and severity of fragility and conflict, is grounded in an understanding of institutional and socio-political dynamics, and leverages adaptive delivery systems that can function under stress. To support this transition, this section proposes a systematic framework for operational engagement in FCV settings. The framework provides a context-driven approach to guide decision-making and implementation, ensuring that operational modalities are responsive to specific risks, constraints, and opportunities in each setting. By doing so, it enables the strategic objectives of Social Protection in FCV contexts to be translated into actionable, fit-for-context interventions that ensure effectiveness, legitimacy, and sustainability. 3.2.1 GUIDING QUESTIONS A critical first step in engaging in FCV settings is conducting a systematic assessment of the operational and institutional landscape. This assessment should be guided by a set of key questions aimed at identifying risks, constraints, population needs, and the available operational space. The analysis helps determine not only the feasibility of engagement models, but also how they should be structured, considering factors such as access constraints in insecure areas, weak or contested state functions, and the functionality of national social protection systems. These considerations are both strategic and operational, shaping the scope, ambition, and design of Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV settings. They inform what results can be realistically achieved, what adaptations are required in delivery mechanisms, and how implementation modalities must be configured. This leads to four guiding questions, which underpin the development of context- specific operational models that combine system-building objectives with adaptive implementation needs. Question 1: What is the prevailing FCV challenge in the country or area of engagement: active conflict or fragility? This foundational question helps establish the context for engagement, distinguishing between areas affected by active conflict and those primarily characterized by social and institutional fragility without widespread conflict or violence. While FCV situations span a broad spectrum, this Paper categorizes them broadly into “conflict” and “fragility” to simplify and guide initial decision-making. However, teams should assess specific local conditions to inform analysis and design. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 38 In conflict-affected settings, Social Protection and Labor engagement must account for several factors, including security risks, limited operational reach and access, and often requires specific risk mitigation measures and alternative implementation modalities. This may include using TPIs or hybrid models, where TPIs perform a supporting role to government-led implementation, particularly in areas inaccessible to government systems or personnel. In contrast, fragile settings without generalized conflict typically allow for direct government engagement, though institutional weaknesses may still require targeted support for implementation. In such contexts, Social Protection and Labor engagement can follow more standard modalities, but it should remain sensitive to risks related to fragility and its drivers, as well as to operational adaptations. Question 2: Is direct engagement with the government possible, or are alternative arrangements required? This question determines the core financing and institutional arrangements for Social Protection and Labor engagements. Where direct government engagement is feasible, operations can follow standard World Bank lending modalities with the government as the Borrower or grant recipient. These engagements must still be adapted to FCV realities, including implementation support from UN agencies or NGOs to address capacity gaps. In settings where direct government engagement is not feasible due to security or policy constraints, Social Protection and Labor engagement may rely on alternative implementation arrangements. Under exceptional circumstances and with clear development justification, financing may be channeled through third parties, typically UN agencies or international NGOs (INGOs), via specific legal and operational frameworks. Regardless of the modality, alignment with national priorities, efforts to link with national systems, and strong local engagement remain critical to achieving development outcomes. In extremely constrained environments where neither government nor third parties can feasibly implement or monitor programs, operational engagement may be temporarily unviable. However, it is desirable, or may even be essential, to maintain strategic engagement through analytical and diagnostic work. Continued participation in policy dialogue and coordination platforms, such as sector working groups or inter-agency fora, ensures that the Bank remains informed and positioned to re-engage once conditions permit. Building and updating an evidence base through analytical work in the interim helps inform future investment opportunities and support the continuity and alignment with broader international efforts. Question 3: Does the government have physical access to the intended target areas and populations? This defining question is critical for defining the operational scope and delivery arrangements. Even when direct engagement with the government is possible, access constraints stemming from insecurity, contested territorial control, or the absence of functioning administrative structures can significantly limit operational reach and implementation capacity. Where government access is partial or restricted, alternative implementation modalities may be necessary. In such cases, interventions may consider engaging third-party actors, such as UN agencies or international or local NGOs, with established presence and operational capacity in target areas. These entities can be PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 39 directly contracted either by the World Bank (where government engagement is not feasible) or by the government, to implement specific components of a social protection operation or in full. Regardless of the delivery modality, it is essential to ensure alignment with national systems and strategies to avoid fragmentation. Engagement of local actors is equally important for building trust and maintaining continuity with future system-building efforts. Question 4: Does a government-led social protection system exist? If so, what is its level of development, conflict sensitivity, and maturity? Assessing the presence and maturity of a government-led social protection system, whether at the national or sub-national level, is key to identifying appropriate entry points and the focus of engagement. FCV contexts exhibit a broad spectrum, ranging from countries with nascent systems to those with relatively mature or well-established institutional structures and delivery systems. In settings where systems are nascent or underdeveloped, engagement will likely center on foundational investments in system building, such as establishing social registries, payment systems, and coordination platforms. These investments lay the groundwork for scalable and adaptive national systems over time. In more mature systems, Social Protection and Labor engagement may emphasize consolidation, expansion, or adaptation by increasing coverage, enhancing responsiveness to FCV-specific challenges, or developing conflict sensitivity approaches through political economy analysis. Strengthening these systems’ ability to respond flexibly and equitably in times of crisis becomes a core objective. The maturity and functionality of the national social protection system also informs the design and scale of technical assistance, the extent to which other development and humanitarian agencies can leverage the system, and the prospects for long- term sustainability. While not exhaustive, these guiding questions provide a foundation for structuring Social Protection and Labor engagements in FCV settings. They help ensure that operational models and interventions are contextually appropriate, politically feasible, and operationally viable. 3.2.2 OPERATIONAL PATHWAYS FOR SOCIAL PROTECTION IN FCV SETTINGS The guiding questions presented earlier can be operationalized through a structured decision tree (Figure 3.2), with each node narrowing options based on context-specific factors. These nodes define distinct operational pathways for Social Protection and Labor engagements in FCV settings, shaped by the FCV intensity, security environment, institutional capacity, access, and partner roles. The decision tree supports practitioners in translating analysis into tailored strategies that meet immediate needs while advancing medium to long-term goals of prevention, resilience, and recovery, all anchored in helping governments build and establish inclusive and adaptive Social Protection systems. A total of eight pathways can be identified across FCV settings, each reflecting specific sets of challenges and opportunities for Social Protection and Labor engagements. The framework begins by distinguishing between conflict and fragility contexts, then sequentially assesses whether direct engagement with the government is feasible, whether the government has access to targeted areas, and whether a government- PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 40 led Social Protection and Labor system exists (Figure 3.2). Based on these factors, the framework identifies eight distinct pathways, ranging from preserving and adapting existing national Social Protection and Labor systems to building new systems from the ground up, or utilizing third-party implementers when government engagement is not feasible.72 It also includes approaches for strengthening systems in fragile settings and maintaining analytical engagement where direct operational work is not possible. While these pathways are stylized representations, they are grounded in empirical reality. Each serves as a conceptual map for understanding how Social Protection and Labor systems can support resilience and recovery under different constraints and is illustrated with a case study. These pathways are not fixed or prescriptive but evolve with changing contextual conditions. For example, a fragile context may escalate into active conflict, prompting shifts from government-led to third- party implementation, changes in financing modalities, or adjustments in the roles of humanitarian and development actors. Figure 3.2 Pathways for Building Country-Owned Social Protection and Labor Systems in FCV Settings 8 Pathways to building national SP systems in FCV Situations Preserve and adapt national SP system Can engage Gov’t has access to Basic SP system 1 with gov’t exists target areas SP system 2 Gov’t engages TPI for rapid delivery, build SP system doesn't exist Gov’t engages TPI, use country systems. Limited or Basic SP 3 Govt leads decision-making no access system exists Conflict SP system Gov’t engages TPI for rapid delivery, build SP doesn't exist 4 systems. Establish exist strategy Can't Can engage w/ TPI Basic SP Engage TPI to implement using national systems, engage with gov’t system exist 5 develop exist strategy Engage TPI for rapid deliver, build local capacity and SP system 6 transferable delivery systems doesn't exist Can't engage w/ Remain engaged at the dialogue and analytical levels in a TPI largely humanitarian context. Gov’t-led SP system exists 7 Support Gov’t to strengthen the SP system to address the drivers of fragility Fragility Can engage with gov’t Support Gov’t to establish SP system. When necessary Gov’t-led system 8 Gov’t engages TPI with an exist strategy doesn't exist 72 The framework does not aim to capture every possible FCV scenario. Instead, it provides a structured way to guide engagement across the most common operational contexts. It generally assumes that direct government engagement is feasible in fragile situations without active conflict and in some conflict situations, which applies to most World Bank Social Protection operations. However, there are exceptions. In such cases, the World Bank can maintain a strategic role through analytical work and policy dialogue. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 41 The remainder of this section discusses each pathway in detail. Each path presents a contextual analysis of the FCV environment, highlighting opportunities and constraints, key risks and challenges for Social Protection and Labor engagement, followed by the key engagement focus that Social Protection and Labor systems should follow, and the associated operational implications in terms of implementation arrangements and type and extent of adaptations required to make the interventions effective and increase their impact. Table 3.1 provides an overview of the pathways, summarizing their characteristics and highlighting entry points for Social Protection and Labor engagement and system-building efforts. Table 3.1 Illustrative Table of Pathways Pathway Operational Conditions Key Social Protection Illustrative Cases Engagement Focus Pathway 1 Conflict-affected but functioning Sustain, adapt, and scale. Ukraine (post-2022) government, direct engagement, and Sustain and scale existing mature national Social Protection systems while adapting systems. Government retains territorial them for crisis response and control and service delivery capacity in recovery. most of the territory, although some areas may be contested or inaccessible. Pathway 2 Conflict-affected but functioning Deliver while building. Haiti government with nascent or fragmented Prioritize immediate systems. Direct engagement is possible, delivery while building but capacity is mixed—government national shock-responsive operates in some areas while relying on systems for resilience. external actors where access or capacity is limited. Pathway 3 Conflict-affected with direct government Adapt and coordinate. Ethiopia (2020 - 2022) engagement and mature but partially Adapt existing systems disrupted systems. National systems to maintain delivery and remain in place but require adaptation coordinate crisis response. and coordination with humanitarian actors to sustain delivery, especially in conflict areas. Pathway 4 Conflict-affected with limited government Build for transition. Somalia (post- 2019) control and nascent systems. Direct Lay the foundations of engagement is possible, offering an national Social Protection opportunity to build national systems as systems as part of state- part of state-building and transition. building or post-conflict transition. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 42 Pathway 5 Conflict-affected with mature national Preserve and prepare for Yemen (post-2015) systems, but government engagement recovery. is unfeasible due to conflict or policy Preserve national constraints. Capacity exists, but institutions and capacity operational space is highly restricted or and build readiness for suspended. future recovery. Pathway 6 Highly constrained or non-permissive Deliver and design for Sudan (post-2023) environments with no government transferability. engagement, limited access, and nascent Prioritize rapid delivery or non-functional systems. through temporary systems while laying the groundwork for a future transition to government systems. Pathway 7 Countries at risk of conflict or recovering Strengthen for prevention Chad from fragility with functional systems and transition. needing adaptation and strengthening Strengthen national systems to prevent worsening or relapse into to prevent conflict and instability. support peaceful transitions out of fragility. Pathway 8 Fragile contexts without active conflict Lay system foundations Papua New Guinea but with structural drivers of fragility. for prevention and Opportunity to build Social Protection resilience. systems to address risks and strengthen Establish core components resilience and stability. of a national Social Protection system to address drivers of fragility and build resilience. Pathway 1. Sustaining and scaling national systems while adapting them for post-conflict recovery In countries where conflict persists but engagement with the government remains feasible, the existence of a mature social protection system offers a critical entry point for sustained Social Protection and Labor engagement. These systems provide the architecture to deliver large-scale support to vulnerable and conflict-affected populations, particularly when governments retain territorial control and administrative functionality. However, this operational space is challenged by increasing demands for coverage under constrained resources, fiscal stress, and limited access to populations in conflict-affected or contested areas. As a result, the primary focus of Social Protection engagement is on sustaining and scaling existing national systems as the backbone of crisis response while adapting them to evolving needs and long-term recovery. Social protection engagement should be anchored in government leadership and full reliance on national structures at both central and local levels. National institutions are responsible for implementing, PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 43 coordinating, and delivering programs, ensuring ownership, visibility, and accountability. Development partners play a complementary role by providing financial resources, technical assistance, and policy dialogue to help governments adapt their systems to wartime demands. This includes enhancing operational flexibility, which may consist of updating targeting mechanisms for displaced or conflict-affected populations, strengthening shock-responsive delivery capacity, and improving financial sustainability through policy and system reforms. The role of non-government actors — including humanitarian agencies or TPIs — should be limited and narrowly defined, with engagement potentially confined to areas inaccessible to government and national delivery channels. These actors should operate in close coordination with national authorities to ensure alignment with government priorities and response, avoiding parallel systems and fragmentation of interventions. Ukraine exemplifies this pathway, where a relatively mature system enabled effective response amid active conflict. Since February 2022, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to widespread destruction, mass displacement, and a dramatic increase in poverty. By early 2025, over 6.2 million people had become refugees, nearly 5 million remained internally displaced, and 15 percent of the population faced food insecurity. Poverty rose from 20.6 percent in 2021 to 35.5 percent in 2023, while basic service provision was severely disrupted. Despite these conditions, Ukraine’s social protection system demonstrated remarkable resilience, continuing to operate effectively under extreme conditions and mounting fiscal pressure. Decades of reform, supported by longstanding World Bank engagement through the Social Safety Nets Modernization Project (SSNMP) and the ongoing Investing in Social Protection for Inclusion, Resilience, and Efficiency (INSPIRE) project, enabled the government to improve coverage for the poorest, rationalize key national programs, digitize delivery systems, and modernize administration. At the onset of the invasion, surge financing was mobilized to sustain benefits and service delivery. INSPIRE became the primary vehicle for protecting more than 2.6 million people through 29 types of benefits, including support to low-income and energy-vulnerable households, families with children, people with disabilities, and students. Performance- Based Conditions (PBCs) also incentivized structural reforms, such as piloting the Basic Income Benefit (BIB) for system consolidation and sustainability, improving IDP targeting, and scaling up digital systems. Since February 2022, Ukraine’s social protection system has continued to adapt dynamically to the security-related challenges and evolving needs. Benefits were automatically extended during martial law. Delivery channels were modified to serve the most affected areas and those with newly restored government control. Digital platforms, such as Diia, enabled remote enrollment and service access. The government centralized benefit administration through the Pension Fund of Ukraine (PFU) and introduced reforms to improve fiscal sustainability, including means- and asset-testing for IDP assistance, cross-registry verification, and a 12-month limit on benefit duration. National institutions, particularly the Ministry of Social Policy (MoSP), the Ministry of Finance (MoF), and PFU, have maintained leadership in both crisis response and sector reform. The World Bank advocated early for humanitarian actors to channel support through national systems. Over time, many humanitarian partners have coordinated interventions to complement, rather than substitute for, government-led delivery. This strategic alignment has helped maintain benefit and service continuity, avoid duplication, and ensure coherence across emergency and development responses. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 44 Pathway 2. Delivering support while building shock-responsive systems for long-term resilience In FCV settings where national systems are nascent, but government engagement remains possible, the core priority is to ensure timely delivery of assistance while simultaneously laying the foundation for shock-responsive government-led systems. Operational challenges, such as limited institutional and technical capacity, fragmented governance, and access constraints, may necessitate reliance on external actors to partially or fully deliver assistance on behalf of the government. However, external engagement should be structured to actively support and reinforce—not replace—national systems, ensuring that today’s delivery contributes to government ownership tomorrow. As a result, effective engagement in these contexts requires a pragmatic dual-track approach: delivering immediate support through government systems where feasible, while progressively strengthening national capacity to lead. This involves building on existing institutional structures, carefully managing partnerships with TPIs, and ensuring that external actors operate in alignment with national priorities and objectives. Where government reach is limited, TPIs may play a necessary but transitional role, operating in insecure or contested zones under government direction and oversight. Where possible, TPIs should be engaged through indirect contracting managed by the government. To enable this, development partners such as the World Bank should provide hands-on technical assistance and capacity building, helping governments manage TPI engagement, coordinate implementation, and integrate shock-responsive delivery mechanisms. The ultimate goal is to transition from reliance on externally supported delivery to nationally owned systems over time, striking a balance between urgency, sustainability, and ownership. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 45 Social protection engagement in Haiti clearly illustrates this approach. Haiti faces acute insecurity, institutional fragility, and repeated natural disasters. By 2024, over 1 million Haitians were internally displaced, and nearly half of the population—around 5 million people—faced acute food insecurity. Against this background, Haiti’s national Social Protection system remains highly fragmented and under- resourced, with no unified delivery platform. The World Bank-supported Adaptive Social Protection for Increased Resilience Project (PSARA) represents a strategic effort to ensure short-term delivery while building core national systems. PSARA supported the government in establishing Klere Chimen, the first government-led safety net program aligned with the national Social Protection Policy (PNPPS) adopted in 2020. Klere Chimen targets highly vulnerable households, those with young children and pregnant women, or persons with disabilities. To address the limited capacity of the Ministry of Social Affairs (MAST), implementation has been delegated to the World Food Programme (WFP) through an indirect third-party contracting arrangement. However, the program is institutionally anchored in the MAST. This arrangement preserves government visibility and policy direction, while reducing operational risks associated with volatility and fragmentation. PSARA also incorporates innovations to adapt delivery to insecurity while building long-term resilience. This included developing the national social registry (SIMAST), a new MIS, and expanding mobile money payments from 10 percent to 76 percent of beneficiaries to reduce risks with manual distribution in insecure areas. The program integrated health and nutrition outreach via community health worker training, malnutrition screening, and awareness campaigns reaching over 270,000 people. Shock- responsive guidelines supported scale-ups after the 2021 earthquake and 2023 floods. The Bank also favored donor coordination to align support around a nationally owned strategy focused on both system- building and immediate assistance. Across the nine country studies reviewed, internal Bank coordination also enhanced the effectiveness of Social Protection and Labor systems. In Haiti, collaboration between the Social Protection and Labor and Health Global Practices integrated health into the Social Protection, leveraging CHWs as key agents at the community level. A defining feature of Social Protection engagement in Haiti is the design and operationalization of a structured transition plan to transfer implementation responsibilities from WFP to MAST gradually. This approach represents a good practice for Social Protection operations in FCV settings, where transition planning should be embedded from the outset, with the objective of progressively shifting delivery functions from TPIs to government counterparts as conditions allow. In Haiti, the transition is not conceived as a one- off event but as a phased and risk-calibrated process, informed by an institutional capacity diagnostic jointly conducted by the World Bank and MAST, and responsive to evolving contextual conditions. The transition plan is anchored in readiness criteria rather than fixed timelines, including progress in fiduciary controls, data protection, digital system uptake, and subnational delivery infrastructure. The World Bank facilitates this transition by providing technical assistance, capacity building, and convening stakeholder dialogue to ensure alignment, government ownership, and continuity. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 46 Pathway 3. Adapting and coordinating for continuous delivery in conflict In conflict-affected settings where government structures remain operational and national social protection and labor systems are established but partially disrupted, the strategic focus centers on adapting existing systems and coordinating responses to ensure continuity. These environments, such as Ethiopia, present a mix of institutional continuity and operational instability. While governments maintain administrative leadership and delivery capacity across much of the territory (as in Ethiopia), conflict dynamics— including insecurity, displacement, and infrastructure damage — can undermine the functionality and reach of Social Protection systems in affected areas. The key opportunity in these settings lies in the existence of functional national systems that can deliver at scale and serve as the backbone of crisis response in accessible areas. National institutions continue to lead implementation, delivery, and coordination, providing an essential institutional pillar for sustained engagement. Where government systems are temporarily unable to function, particularly in insecure areas, TPI engagement may be required to fill urgent gaps. In such cases, their involvement should be targeted, time-bounded, and coordinated under government oversight, ideally through contracting arrangements. TPIs should operate in alignment with national policies and frameworks, ensuring their interventions complement rather than fragment the delivery landscape. The objective is to maintain the centrality of national systems, preserve government leadership, and ensure continuity of assistance while adapting to the challenges posed by conflict. In these scenarios, development partners play a multidimensional role. A key focus is to support governments to implement conflict-sensitive adaptations to safeguard the continuity of national delivery systems and prevent conflict from causing long-term institutional erosion. Adaptations may include transitioning from manual to digital payment systems to reduce diversion or operational risks, or sequencing and prioritizing delivery in insecure areas. These measures help ensure that delivery remains functional, inclusive, and resilient under conflict conditions. Development partners can also facilitate coordination by supporting government-led platforms that bring together humanitarian and development actors. Effective coordination mechanisms help reduce fragmentation and strengthen the coherence of the response. A primary coordination mechanism is system-building. For instance, in the West Bank and Gaza, the national social registry was leveraged to align humanitarian assistance with government programs, ensuring more efficient and targeted delivery of aid. Lastly, when TPIs are engaged, development partners should help governments ensure that such arrangements are temporary, well-coordinated, and integrated into the broader national Social Protection architecture. This requires joint development of clear transition plans to gradually hand back delivery responsibilities to national institutions as conditions permit. Ethiopia illustrates this model of adaptive delivery through national systems. Despite facing a complex landscape of fragility, marked by overlapping crises of conflict, drought, and internal displacement, especially in regions such as Tigray, Afar, and Amhara, the government has maintained operational capacity in much of the country. The Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP), Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, has remained central to crisis response. Since the onset of conflict, the World Bank’s engagement has focused on maintaining the continuity of PNSP delivery while supporting strategic adaptations. In conflict-affected or inaccessible areas, delivery has been preserved through government-contracted TPIs—specifically, WFP— under a coordinated framework with government oversight. Working closely with the Ministry of Agriculture and development partners, the World Bank provided technical assistance, supporting the government in PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 47 defining the key parameters for indirect TPI engagement, the terms of reference, and managing the contract effectively to ensure consistency in targeting, delivery standards, and accountability. A key adaptation has been the reconfiguration of PNSP’s design and delivery model. Existing public works components have been scaled back in favor of direct cash and food transfers in high-risk areas. The program has also adopted flexible targeting and expanded the use of mobile registration and rapid assessments, while leveraging local engagement through existing community structures to preserve legitimacy and participation. Moreover, the World Bank has played a central role in coordinating humanitarian and development responses, facilitating joint planning platforms, data-sharing protocols, and alignment of transfer values and delivery schedules between PNSP and humanitarian actors. While the conflict context is very different, Social Protection engagement in the West Bank and Gaza similarly demonstrates how systems can be leveraged to deliver immediate support while building institutional resilience in one of the world’s most protracted crises. To respond to urgent needs while supporting long-term capacity, the World Bank, through its Social Protection and Labor engagement including the West Bank and Gaza Emergency Social Protection and Jobs-COVID19 Project, and the Social Protection Enhancement Project (SPEP), adopted a blended model, combining short-term delivery through TPIs (e.g., WFP for in-kind assistance) with continued investment in the capacity and leadership of the Ministry of Social Development (MoSD). Coordination has been pivotal. The World Bank supported the creation of the Social Protection and Cash and Voucher Assistance Thematic Working Group, co-led by MoSD and OCHA, which fosters alignment between humanitarian and development partners. These platforms are key for ensuring complementarity and guiding partners toward system-based approaches, particularly in situations where fiscal constraints and conflict complexity severely challenge implementation. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 48 Pathway 4. Building national systems for state-building and post-conflict transition In highly fragile and conflict-affected contexts where governments have limited territorial control and national systems are weak or nonexistent, engagement should extend well beyond short-term crisis response. These contexts, such as transitional states like Somalia, present not only operational challenges but also a strategic opportunity to contribute to state-building and stabilization through the gradual establishment of nationally led Social Protection and Labor systems. While immediate humanitarian needs often dominate the immediate agenda, these settings offer a critical window to invest in system-building as part of broader efforts to rebuild institutions, restore state legitimacy, and promote inclusive development. The defining feature of these environments is the limited capacity of government institutions to implement or coordinate large-scale programs. National Social Protection and Labor systems, where they exist, are often fragmented and under-resourced, lacking the administrative reach and infrastructure required for effective delivery. Nevertheless, direct engagement with the government remains possible and strategically important. Strengthening government capacity to lead—initially in a phased or partial manner — is essential to promote national ownership, enhance legitimacy, and lay the foundations for long-term resilience and system sustainability. The core focus of social protection engagement in these settings is to lay the foundations for transition, establishing the policy, institutional, and delivery frameworks of a national system that governments can gradually own, expand, and manage. This involves the development of core system components, such as targeting mechanisms, social registries, payment platforms, and overall delivery systems that are context-appropriate and conflict-sensitive. These building blocks are crucial for ensuring that emerging Social Protection systems are not only functional but also inclusive, adaptive, and scalable as state capacity strengthens. Given limited government capacity and the need to deliver support at scale, TPIs can be leveraged to manage day-to-day delivery while the national system is being constructed. However, to promote government ownership and sustainability, these TPIs should be contracted and coordinated by the government, allowing national institutions to develop oversight and coordination functions. Support in these contexts must include strategic investments in system design and institutional development, helping governments define the legal, policy, and operational frameworks necessary to institutionalize Social Protection as a core state function. This involves not only supporting delivery platforms but also assisting in the formulation of regulatory frameworks, financing arrangements, and inter-ministerial coordination mechanisms that will anchor the Social Protection and Labor system over the long term. Somalia presents a successful model of this operational pathway. Following decades of civil conflict and institutional collapse, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has, since 2012, established a federal system of governance and begun to reassert authority across parts of the country. Until 2019, Somalia lacked any formal social protection system, with the population primarily relying on humanitarian aid, remittances, and informal clan-based networks for support. Following the World Bank’s initial re-engagement in Somalia in the early 2010s, support for social protection became a critical part of the World Bank’s approach in 2019 when it supported the FGS to launch the Baxnaano program, the country’s first government-led safety net, under the Shock-Responsive Safety Net for Human Capital Project (SNHCP). Baxnaano marked a pivotal PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 49 shift from fragmented humanitarian relief to state-led, system-building engagement. The program adopted a tripartite model: the government led program coordination and oversight, TPIs (i.e., UNICEF and WFP) initially supported system development and program delivery, and the World Bank provided financing, technical assistance, and capacity-building support. The model was anchored in strategic investments in adaptive foundational systems, including the Unified Social Registry (USR), MIS, payment systems, GRMs, and communication platforms, all tailored to Somalia’s context. The rollout followed a phased and selective geographic approach, starting in three districts per Federal Member States (FMS) to reflect operational feasibility and political sensitivity. Urban areas were excluded from the initial phase to avoid duplication with humanitarian programming targeting IDPs, with a complementary urban employment pilot later introduced to promote inclusion and resilience in underserved areas. Shock-responsiveness was built into Baxnaano’s design, enabling horizontal and vertical expansion during crises, including successful scale-ups during locust outbreaks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and 2023 floods. Notably, Baxnaano was never conceived as a short-term cash transfer program, but it was designed from the outset to strengthen state legitimacy and the social contract. As a result, the program has since made tangible progress in transitioning toward full government-led implementation. UNICEF’s role in systems development has ended, with responsibilities now fully transferred to the Ministry of Labor and Social Affairs (MoLSA). WFP’s role has evolved from primary implementer to technical advisor. MoLSA and its PIU now manage the MIS and oversee data systems, such as the USR, supported by robust protocols, which attest to the role of Social Protection as a platform for institutional recovery. Pathway 5: Preserving national capacity and institutions, and building readiness for recovery In conflict-affected contexts with relatively mature national Social Protection systems, the outbreak of violence can severely restrict or suspend the government’s operational capacity. This Pathway is distinct from Pathway 1. While both involve pre-existing Social Protection systems with established institutional capacity and ability to deliver a range of benefits and services at scale, Pathway 5 is defined by the temporary unfeasibility of direct government engagement, typically due to policy or legal restrictions on financing or recognition (e.g., situations of de facto governments). As a result, the government is unable to access external financing to sustain national Social Protection programs and systems, putting their continuity at serious risk of erosion or collapse. The engagement focus in this Pathway is on preserving national systems and institutional capacity to ensure the continuity of delivery where feasible and readiness for future recovery and transition. This includes safeguarding key infrastructure, such as social registries, payment platforms, and program PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 50 administration systems, to retain technical capacity and country ownership, paving the way for future reconstruction and state legitimacy. Preserving the integrity of national systems during a crisis is vital to facilitate the resumption of nationally led delivery once conditions stabilize. It also reinforces the long- term sustainability of the Social Protection system by ensuring that immediate crisis responses are not entirely decoupled from the interventions and structures that will eventually be required for recovery and reconstruction. Operationally, engagement in these contexts requires alternative delivery arrangements through TPIs, in line with legal and policy constraints on direct financing to governments. Situations where direct government engagement is not permitted typically arise in the presence of de facto governments, i.e., a ruling authority that has come to or remains in power through means not recognized under the country’s constitution. Such scenarios may result from a coup d’état, revolution, unconstitutional succession, suspension of constitutional order, or ongoing conflict dynamics. Engagement with de facto governments is suspended as a risk mitigation measure, precluding the World Bank from channeling financing through government structures. Under these constraints, the only viable modality for engagement is through direct contracting of TPIs, which become direct recipients of World Bank financing and assume responsibility for direct implementation and delivery. While TPIs are fully responsible for implementation on behalf of the government, they should be encouraged to leverage and maintain existing national systems and capacities whenever feasible. This may include the use of existing registries, data systems, and government-defined targeting frameworks. This approach helps ensure that crisis responses remain aligned with national priorities and systems, facilitating a smoother transition of delivery responsibilities back to the government once conditions allow for direct engagement. This minimizes institutional disruptions and strengthens the government’s long- term capacity to deliver inclusive, shock-responsive social protection. Yemen’s experience provides a compelling illustration of Pathway 5. Prior to the onset of the conflict in 2015, Yemen had established key national Social Protection institutions and programs with support from the World Bank, including the Social Welfare Fund (SWF), the Public Works Project (PWP), and the Social Fund for Development (SFD), along with its subsidiary agency, the Small and Micro Enterprise Promotion Service (SMEPS). With the eruption of conflict and the suspension of direct government engagement, the World Bank re-engaged through UNICEF and UNDP. While these TPIs assumed operational responsibilities, national institutions such as the SFD and PWP continued to function across conflict lines due to their neutrality, local legitimacy, and technical expertise. These quasi-governmental entities, embedded in communities and perceived as accountable, became essential for delivering support in fragmented political conditions. Far from substituting national systems, TPIs acted as temporary enablers, delivering support while preserving national capacities and supporting system adaptations to conflict. Adaptations included shifting payments to vetted private financial institutions, introducing conflict-sensitive targeting, and scaling digital ID and financial inclusion. TPI involvement and system adaptation helped Yemen maintain a delivery backbone for social protection, enabling large-scale responses to multiple, overlapping shocks— including conflict, locust infestations, and the COVID-19 pandemic. A decade into the crisis, Yemen’s Social Protection architecture remains largely functional, positioning it to rapidly scale up and transition back to government-led implementation once peace is restored and the country enters a recovery phase. This PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 51 experience highlights the importance of strategic engagement with TPIs in meeting urgent needs while safeguarding national systems for future resilience and reconstruction. Pathway 6. Leverage TPIs to ensure rapid delivery amid state collapse while designing responses for transferability for post-conflict reconstruction and transition In highly constrained or non-permissive environments, such as Sudan, the operational engagement is shaped by pervasive insecurity, political collapse, and territorial fragmentation. These extreme conditions leave little to no operational space for government-led delivery in the short term. National Social Protection and Labor systems, if present at all, tend to be nascent, fragmented, or altogether non-functional, lacking the institutional capacity or geographic reach needed to respond at scale. In these environments, TPIs are often the only actors with the operational capability to deliver assistance and reach affected populations. Humanitarian responses play a central role in providing life-saving assistance. However, in the absence of national structures, they are typically delivered through parallel systems. While essential, these responses risk creating long-term fragmentation if disconnected from broader system-building objectives. On the contrary, these settings demand forward-looking engagement strategies that recognize and balance the urgent need for rapid delivery while maintaining a deliberate focus on laying the foundations for future government-led systems. The key engagement focus in Pathway 6 is thus twofold: ensuring rapid delivery and simultaneously designing for transferability. Development partners should avoid defaulting into purely humanitarian modalities and instead pursue operational arrangements that are both conflict-sensitive and system- focused. This involves using temporary or parallel delivery channels, typically managed by TPIs, to meet immediate needs, while embedding design elements that can later be institutionalized once political PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 52 and operational conditions allow. Even in the absence of direct government engagement, development partners should adopt a course of action that anticipates and enables eventual government leadership. This means that TPIs not only deliver services but build core delivery components that can later be handed over to government actors as soon as the context permits. Failure to take this proactive, forward-looking approach risks entrenching parallel structures and reinforcing dependency on external actors. In contrast, by designing transferability from the outset, development partners can support the development of a country- owned Social Protection and Labor system capable of sustaining recovery in the post-conflict period. Sudan offers an example of how this approach can be operationalized. Following the 2021 military takeover and the outbreak of full-scale conflict in 2023, Sudan experienced the collapse of government institutions, widespread violence, and a severe humanitarian crisis. With administrative systems dismantled and civil service capacity eroded, the World Bank reoriented its engagement entirely through TPIs, particularly through WFP and UNICEF. Social Protection engagement in Sudan has focused on crisis response through TPIs, while deliberately preserving and rebuilding foundational delivery infrastructure for future transition. The Sudan Emergency Safety Nets Project (SESNP), implemented by WFP between 2022 and 2024, provided cash and food assistance to over 2.6 million individuals. The project used biometric registration and WFP’s SCOPE platform to register and verify 1.4 million beneficiaries and established a hybrid GRM to track delivery integrity and community feedback. Building on SESNP, the Sudan Community Resilience Project (SOMOUD, now Thabat), approved in 2024, introduced a community-driven model in more stable regions to support early recovery through service delivery and livelihoods restoration. While delivery continues through TPIs, the project strategically leverages existing community-level institutions, local NGOs, and decentralized administrative bodies—preserving local capacity and avoiding parallel structures. In 2024, the World Bank launched the SANAD project to further protect human capital, particularly among IDPs and vulnerable women. SANAD delivers both unconditional cash and maternal health-sensitive transfers and is closely aligned with health sector investments to incentivize uptake of services. The project incorporates climate- sensitive targeting, digital payment modalities, and participatory delivery mechanisms such as Mother Leaders and community monitoring committees—ensuring transparency, accountability, and adaptability to the evolving context. Across these operations, Social Protection engagement in Sudan has consistently prioritized building for the future, even while operating through TPIs. Delivery systems such as biometric registries, GRMs, and mobile payment platforms have been expanded and adapted, maintaining operational integrity despite deteriorating conditions. Importantly, engagement with local actors—where feasible—has helped retain community trust and administrative presence in an otherwise collapsed institutional environment. Pathway 7. Strengthening systems to prevent conflict and support transition out of fragility In contexts marked by fragility but not active conflict, the accumulation of deep-rooted poverty, inequality, socioeconomic exclusion, and weak governance generate significant risks of instability. These countries often face chronic vulnerability to shocks, whether economic, climate-related, or regional spillovers from nearby conflict zones, which can aggravate poor households’ socioeconomic conditions, erode public trust, and increase the likelihood of social unrest or political crises if left unaddressed. Although PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 53 foundational Social Protection and Labor systems may exist, they can be underdeveloped, fragmented, or lack the scale and responsiveness needed to mitigate the impacts of shocks at scale. These contexts present an opportunity for proactive engagement, before fragility escalates into conflict. Social protection can play an important role in addressing fragility as a structural driver of conflict and building resilience before tensions escalate. The focus in these contexts is thus on leveraging Social Protection and Labor as a prevention tool: promoting social inclusion and cohesion, reinforcing state legitimacy, and expanding coverage to vulnerable populations to reduce inequality and strengthen resilience. The key engagement focus under this Pathway is to establish and expand core components of a government-owned Social Protection and Labor system. This includes building or expanding social registries, developing adaptive delivery mechanisms, launching or scaling safety net and employment programs, and embedding shock-responsive capabilities that can be rapidly scaled during crises. Strengthening system architecture must go hand-in-hand with building institutional capacity and governance structures for policy oversight, coordination, and effective service delivery. Operationally, implementation and coordination under Pathway 7 are led by government institutions. National authorities assume primary responsibility for implementation, delivery, and coordination, reinforcing national ownership and ensuring alignment with long-term development priorities. However, recognizing that capacity gaps may persist, TPIs may play a supporting role. In these cases, TPIs should be selectively engaged to provide targeted technical assistance or operational support, ideally through government-managed contracting arrangements (i.e., indirect contracting). This ensures the government retains responsibility for overseeing implementation and coordination while building its capacity in this area. Chad offers a strong illustration of the potential for preventive and resilience-oriented engagement in fragility. Despite structural vulnerabilities, widespread displacement, and recurrent climate and conflict shocks, direct government engagement has remained feasible in Chad. However, the national Social Protection and Labor system remains nascent, with limited reach and a heavy reliance on external financing. In this setting, Social Protection engagement has focused on building the foundational elements of a national system while fostering long-term institutional resilience. Engagement began in 2015 with a pilot and has since evolved into two large-scale operations: the Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (PARCA) and the Adaptive and Productive Safety Net Project (PFSAP). A government-led model was established from the outset, prioritizing system-building even in a low-capacity environment. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 54 Interventions were sequenced strategically. Initial support focused on refugee-hosting areas, balancing assistance between host and refugee populations to promote social cohesion (70 percent host and 30 percent refugee). As capacity grew, the geographic scope expanded to nine provinces. Chad’s Social Protection and Labor system now includes an expanding social registry, an emerging MIS, and a national strategy targeting 1 million beneficiaries by 2028. Institutions such as CNARR (for refugee management) and INSEED (for data systems) are being strengthened, while innovations, such as psycho-social support modules and mobile ID- based payments, demonstrate country-specific adaptations. Pathway 8. Building System Foundations to Address Drivers of Fragility In contexts facing heightened risks of conflict or emerging from fragility, the absence of national Social Protection and Labor systems can significantly deepen exclusion and weaken public trust in state institutions. Without mechanisms to deliver basic services or support to vulnerable populations, these settings can become increasingly exposed and vulnerable to inequality, social unrest, and political instability. Failure to invest in system development in such environments can exacerbate existing grievances and contribute to a gradual slide into instability or relapse into conflict. Despite these challenges, these settings often present a critical window of opportunity for system- building engagement. In many cases, governments retain political space and operational control to lead national systems, offering development partners a critical entry point to support the prevention of conflict through system building, thereby enabling the government to respond to the needs of its most vulnerable populations. The strategic focus in these contexts is therefore on prevention through the development of nationally led Social Protection and Labor systems, using social protection as a tool to reduce vulnerability, mitigate drivers of fragility, and reinforce the state’s ability to manage socio-economic risks before they escalate into crises. Operational arrangements in these contexts should prioritize government-led delivery through national systems. They should be supported by targeted capacity-building investments aimed at improving delivery and administrative systems, expanding coverage, and strengthening the system’s ability to respond to shocks. Where needed, TPIs may play a complementary role, particularly in areas where government capacity is limited or where technical support is required to implement system enhancements. However, TPIs are not expected to lead delivery; their role is to fill gaps and transfer knowledge to government institutions as capacity improves. In these cases, TPIs, if engaged, perform specific and time-bound technical or operational tasks under government ownership, oversight, and leadership. Papua New Guinea (PNG) demonstrates how the development of government-owned systems can serve as a preventive measure against fragility. In a context marked by localized risks and limited state presence in some regions, development partners, including Asian Development Bank, Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade and World Bank, have worked collaboratively to support the government in establishing foundational Social Protection institutions focusing on coordinated social assistance, building a social registry, and strengthening delivery capacity by bringing in private sectors actors to help to build critical digital infrastructure. This forward-looking approach aims to promote stability and inclusion by addressing vulnerability before a crisis emerges. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 55 IV. CONCLUSION Achieving sustainable outcomes in fragile, conflict-affected, and violent (FCV) settings demands a shift from short-term, reactive assistance to long-term, system-building approaches. These must foster resilience, promote stability, and enable inclusive development. Social protection and labor systems should be viewed not merely as safety nets but as foundational tools for resilience, recovery, state-building, and social cohesion. Experience from the World Bank and other development partners has shown that supporting government-owned systems—even during active conflict—is both feasible and essential. To scale impact, governments and development partners must invest collectively in adaptive, conflict-sensitive approaches that extend beyond cash transfers. This includes integrated interventions to protect and support the accumulation of human capital, employment and livelihoods, economic empowerment, and inclusive service delivery. Strengthening delivery systems, sustainable financing, and frontline capacity, particularly through trained social workers, will be essential for effectively and equitably reaching vulnerable populations. Anchored in three interconnected focus areas: protecting human capital, building resilience, and supporting transition and recovery Building on this, Social Protection and Labor engagement in FCV settings must remain adaptive and context-driven, grounded in a clear understanding of risks, institutional capacity, and opportunities for impact. Social Protection and Labor systems serve as both a stabilizing force and a bridge to long-term development. Translating these strategic objectives into operational reality requires flexibility to adjust to evolving conflict dynamics, institutional constraints, and delivery challenges. A systematic assessment of the operational and institutional landscape, guided by key questions on the nature of fragility, feasibility of government engagement, access, and system functionality, is essential to identify suitable operational pathways. These pathways clarify what institutional arrangements are most effective and how delivery systems can adapt to reach affected populations. A critical dimension of this effort is ensuring that social protection strategies are gender responsive. Women in FCV settings often face unique and compounded challenges, including exclusion from economic opportunities and decision-making, and increased exposure to gender-based violence. Tailored programs that address these realities—such as those linking cash transfers with economic inclusion, GBV services, and psychosocial support—can empower women, enhance their resilience, and help shift harmful gender norms. Centering women’s voices in the design and implementation of these programs is key to making social protection a driver of long-term gender equality and transformative change. Looking forward, effective Social Protection and Labor delivery in FCV settings will require more substantial national ownership and integrated approaches across sectors, as well as systematic engagement between humanitarian, development, and peace actors as part of a coordinated collective response. This coordinated response must be underpinned by flexible operational models, enhanced coordination, and robust engagement with local institutions—including community-based organizations and the private sector—to maintain service continuity and support rapid recovery when conditions allow. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 56 Finally, renewed emphasis on inclusive policy reform, domestic resource mobilization, conflict- sensitive program design, and robust evidence generation will be critical to building effective and accountable Social Protection and Labor systems. These elements are essential to ensure that Social Protection and Labor services not only address immediate needs but also strengthen resilience, promote social cohesion, and contribute to long-term stability. With sustained political commitment, strategic partnerships, and adequate, predictable financing, Social Protection and Labor systems can support individuals, communities, and institutions in recovering from crises, reducing inequality, and laying the groundwork for a more inclusive, resilient, and peaceful future. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 57 ANNEX I. APPLYING THE OPERATIONAL PATHWAYS IN PRACTICE: COUNTRY EXAMPLES FROM WORLD BANK’S SOCIAL PROTECTION AND LABOR OPERATIONS This chapter presents country examples that illustrate how the operational pathways outlined in the Paper are applied in practice. Each case demonstrates how the specific context shaped a feasible engagement pathway and informed the approach to social protection delivery. The examples highlight how contextual factors—such as conflict intensity, government accessibility, and implementation capacity— guided the choice of operational models, ranging from government-led delivery to third-party arrangements. They also illustrate how these models have supported the delivery of critical assistance while contributing to or laying the groundwork for more adaptive, inclusive, and resilient Social Protection systems in fragile and conflict-affected settings. While each pathway is typically illustrated through a single country case study, the approaches can be adapted across a wider range of FCV situations. For example, in pathway 3, Ethiopia and West Bank and Gaza are both presented to illustrate one operational pathway. Although the political, conflict, and operational environments differ significantly between the two contexts, the shared illustration highlights how a common pathway can be tailored and applied in distinct FCV settings. Sustain, adapt, and scale (Pathway 1): Ukraine Conflict ® Direct Engagement ® Access ® Social Protection system exists ® Sustain, Adapt, and Scale Since February 2022, Ukraine has faced unprecedented devastation. More than 12,000 civilian deaths, mass internal and external displacement, large-scale destruction of infrastructure, and deepening poverty. By early 2025, more than 6.2 million people had become refugees, nearly 5 million remained internally displaced, and around 15 percent of the population was food insecure. With basic services disrupted and poverty rising from 20.6 percent in 2021 to 35.5 percent in 2023, the conflict has placed immense strain on the country’s capacity to protect its people. Ukraine had already instituted a relatively mature and reform-oriented social protection and labor system and had a strong history of Social Protection and Labor dialogue with the World Bank support. Since 2014, the World Bank has worked closely with the Government of Ukraine (GoU), particularly through the Social Safety Nets Modernization Project (SSNMP) and, more recently, the Investing in Social Protection PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 58 for Inclusion, Resilience, and Efficiency (INSPIRE) project. These efforts focused on improving coverage for the poorest, rationalizing key national programs, such as the Guaranteed Minimum Income (GMI) and Housing and Utility Subsidies (HUS), modernizing administration, and digitizing delivery systems. At the onset of the invasion, the World Bank mobilized surge financing while continuing direct engagement with the Ministry of Social Policy (MoSP) and the Ministry of Finance. Financial support included US$54.6 million for the GMI, US$99 million for IDP assistance, and US$100 million for social scholarships. The INSPIRE project, a US$1.86 billion operation financed through the ADVANCE Ukraine Trust Fund and supported by Japan, became the primary vehicle for delivering 29 types of social benefits. These range from support for low-income and energy-vulnerable households to assistance for families with children, people with disabilities (PwD), and students. As of the end of 2024, over 2.6 million people were supported through these programs. Performance-Based Conditions (PBCs) incentivized deeper reforms— such as improved targeting for IDP support, piloting a unified Basic Income Benefit (BIB), and scaling up digital enrollment systems. Through the PEACE Project, an additional US$18.9 billion was allocated between 2022 and 2024 to reimburse Ukraine’s pension and social assistance expenditures. In 2023 alone, the project covered 65 percent of Ukraine’s social assistance budget, helping to ensure uninterrupted pensions and income support for over 12 million beneficiaries. The Ukrainian Social Protection system demonstrated exceptional operational flexibility and resilience in the ongoing conflict situation. Safety net benefits were automatically extended during martial law, and delivery channels were adapted to provide benefits even in the most affected areas and those with newly restored government control. A combination of digital platforms and a robust Management Information System (MIS) allowed rapid enrollment, while payments continued even in regions where local offices were unable to operate. Recognizing unsustainable expenditure growth in untargeted IDP support, the GoU introduced means- and asset-testing, cross-registry verification, and a new 12-month limit. These reforms enhanced fiscal sustainability and redirected support to those who were most in need. The case of Ukraine demonstrates that sustained Social Protection and Labor engagement is not only feasible but essential in the current circumstances. Social Protection and Labor has enabled the government to deliver critical support, protect human capital, and buffer economic shocks. Moreover, the GoU turned the crisis into an opportunity for enhanced structural reforms by remaining focused on strengthening and leveraging the national systems and working through government structures. The current reform process, supported by INSPIRE, is setting the stage for an adaptive, inclusive, and shock-responsive Social Protection system that will underpin Ukraine’s recovery and long-term resilience. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 59 Annex Box 1.1: In Short. Ukraine: Social Protection as a Catalyst for Structural Reform for Post- Conflict Recovery Since February 2022, Ukraine’s social protection and labor system has advanced on two fronts: delivering uninterrupted, large-scale benefits while advancing strategic reforms. With World Bank (and other development partners) support through the INSPIRE program and the PEACE Project, Ukraine has continued to provide social assistance and insurance to more than 12 million people. At the same time, major reforms have moved forward to ensure the efficiency and fiscal sustainability of the system, including digitization of the enrolment and administrative processes, improved targeting of internally displaced persons (IDPs), enhanced coverage of the Guaranteed Minimum Income program, rationalization of the Housing and Utility Subsidy, and expanded access to affordable childcare for vulnerable families. Ukraine’s experience shows that Social Protection can be a resilient platform for both emergency response and long-term system modernization in support of post-conflict recovery. Deliver while building (Pathway 2): Haiti Conflict ® Direct Engagement ® Access ® No Social Protection system exists ® Deliver while building Haiti faces a convergence of high institutional fragility, with widespread insecurity and recurrent natural disasters. As of 2024, over 1 million people were internally displaced, and nearly half the population (5 million people) suffered from acute food insecurity. The legitimacy of the Haitian government is limited due to the lack of elections following the end of the parliamentary mandate in 2020 and the assassination of the president in 2021. Currently, a transitional government remains in place to prepare for general elections. However, its capacity is limited due to escalating gang violence that hinders its operations and triggers flight of human capital. Within this highly unstable environment, the Social Protection and Labor system remains nascent, fragmented, and under-resourced, with no effective national delivery platform in place. Against this backdrop, the World Bank’s Social Protection and Labor engagement, anchored in the Adaptive Social Protection for Increased Resilience Project (PSARA), has adopted a dual-track strategy to meet urgent needs while investing in the foundations of a nationally owned, shock-responsive social protection system. In a setting like Haiti, where the government’s institutional and operational capacity is severely constrained, and the needs are urgent and widespread, the Social Protection approach hinges on delivering immediate support through adaptive modalities while developing national systems that can serve as the platform for longer-term resilience. The PSARA project reflects this logic in its implementation model. Its core program, the Klere Chimen, targets highly vulnerable households, including those with young children, pregnant women, and persons with disabilities, with cash transfers and accompanying measures. Given the government’s limited operational capacity and the security risks that constrain mobility and activities in large parts of the country, implementation responsibilities were assigned to WFP through indirect third-party implementation arrangements to ensure effective delivery. At the same time, the project was designed with a strong institutional anchoring in the Ministry of Social Affairs and Labor (MAST). The PIU, formally under the MAST, is staffed with donor-financed consultants and operates with autonomy. This arrangement preserves the PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 60 visibility and role of MAST while reducing the operational risks associated with political instability and institutional fragmentation. PSARA incorporates several adaptations to enable both crisis response and system development. Notably, more than 76 percent of beneficiaries are now reached via digital payments, overcoming the security challenges associated with the manual delivery of physical cash and increasing efficiency. Targeting and registration have been entirely based on data from the national social registry since the launch of the Klere Chimen program. Beyond core cash transfers, the project has supported complementary activities to build household-level resilience, including nutrition screening, community health worker training, and the promotion of village savings and loan associations. An essential element of the Social Protection and Labor engagement in Haiti has been the design and gradual operationalization of a transition plan to shift delivery responsibilities from WFP to the government. This transition is not a one-off handover, but a phased and risk-calibrated process, recognizing the volatility of Haiti’s operating environment. The rationale for working through WFP in the initial stages of PSARA has been based on urgency, scale, and the need for fiduciary assurance. WFP has brought operational capacity, logistical reach, and delivery infrastructure that the government has lacked. Recognizing the temporary nature of the third-party arrangement, a transition plan has been integrated into the project design from the outset. While building foundational capacities and systems, the plan aims to transfer implementation functions from WFP to MAST progressively. This may involve MAST taking over beneficiary enrollment and verification, digital payments, and coordination with local actors. For this purpose, the PSARA project has financed the development of a MIS with an integrated payment platform to enable MAST to take over the cash transfer program. This plan is informed by an institutional capacity diagnostic conducted jointly by the Bank and MAST, which identifies priority functions for transition and the required technical assistance and support. Importantly, the transition is structured around readiness criteria—not fixed timelines. These criteria include improvements in fiduciary control, the uptake of digital systems, data protection, and subnational delivery infrastructure. The World Bank plays a central role in helping the government navigate this process, providing technical assistance, capacity-building support, and convening dialogue among stakeholders to ensure alignment and sustained commitment. Haiti’s experience demonstrates that, even in highly insecure and institutionally weak contexts, it is possible to pursue short-term delivery and long-term institutional development simultaneously, provided that delivery models are adaptive, and third-party engagement is structured for gradual transfer. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 61 Annex Box 1.2: In Short. Haiti: Delivering While Building a Shock-Responsive Social Protection System. In the face of fragility and high insecurity, Haiti’s Social Protection engagement has followed a dual-track approach: ensuring immediate support to protect human capital and build resilience while laying the groundwork for a government-led national system. With support from the PSARA project, the government—through MAST and with third-party implementation by WFP—rolled out the Klere Chimen cash transfer program, targeting highly vulnerable households in underserved rural areas. By 2024, more than 100,000 people (more than 22,000 households) had been registered and received regular and predictable support, with 76 percent of transfers digitized to overcome security challenges and enhance transparency and scalability. In parallel, the program supported the development of foundational delivery systems, including an MIS and the expansion of the social registry’s coverage. Transition planning to shift implementation responsibilities from WFP to the government is underway, supported by structured capacity-building and readiness assessments. Haiti’s experience illustrates how Social Protection and Labor can enable immediate delivery in complex risk environments while strengthening institutional capacity and resilience for longer-term reform. Adapt and coordinate (Pathway 3): Ethiopia (2020-2022) Conflict ® Direct Engagement ® Limited Access ® Social Protection system exists ® Adapt and Coordinate Ethiopia presents a complex and evolving fragility landscape, marked by overlapping crises including active conflict, drought, and displacement. The operational context is also defined by partial state access and disruption of service delivery in selected areas, particularly in northern and conflict-affected regions. Nonetheless, in most areas, the government maintains control and operational capacity. Despite the scale and severity of these challenges, the country maintains a relatively mature social protection system, developed through sustained engagement with development partners, including the World Bank’s Productive Safety Net Program (PNSP). The PNSP has served as a primary vehicle for delivering cash and food transfers, and has played a crucial role in Ethiopia’s poverty reduction and food security strategy for nearly two decades. This has allowed the World Bank to leverage existing national systems for continued delivery, while supporting adaptations to respond to crisis dynamics and promoting coordination across humanitarian and development actors. The engagement focus has been on safeguarding the continuity of delivery through the national system while enabling the system’s adaptability and responsiveness to crisis. This has entailed striking a balance between supporting government ownership and institutional capacity, while facilitating engagement with third-party actors as needed. For instance, in conflict-affected or inaccessible areas, PSNP delivery is supported through TPIs, including UN agencies and NGOs, under a coordinated framework with government oversight. The Bank has worked closely with the Ministry of Agriculture and development partners to define parameters for TPI engagement, ensuring consistency in targeting, delivery standards, and accountability mechanisms. A critical adaptation has been the reconfiguration of PSNP’s delivery model to accommodate displacement, infrastructure damage, and loss of livelihoods. The program has shifted from its traditional PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 62 focus on labor-intensive public works to direct cash and food transfers in emergency settings. It has also adopted flexible targeting and enrollment processes, including the use of rapid assessments and mobile registration, while leveraging existing community structures to maintain local participation and legitimacy. Coordination has been a central component of the engagement model. The World Bank has actively supported the alignment of PSNP and humanitarian response through joint planning platforms, information- sharing protocols, and efforts to harmonize transfer values and delivery schedules. This coordination not only avoids duplication and coverage gaps but also positions PSNP as a credible platform for broader resilience efforts and donor alignment. Ethiopia’s case demonstrates that even during conflict, mature national systems can serve as adaptive platforms for crisis response. By supporting the government in adapting PSNP operations and coordinating with external actors, the World Bank has helped preserve institutional capacity, promote coherence in service delivery, and lay the groundwork for longer-term resilience and recovery. This approach is not simply about maintaining operations during a crisis—it is about strategically positioning national systems to lead recovery once stability returns. Annex Box 1.3: In Short. Ethiopia: Social Protection as an Adaptive Delivery System for Continuity in Conflict Ethiopia’s flagship Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) demonstrates how social protection systems can adapt to conflict while maintaining large-scale delivery. With World Bank support, the program has reached 8 million rural beneficiaries annually and provided shock-responsive assistance to more than 15 million people since 2021. In regions affected by the Tigray conflict, implementation for 1.3 million people temporarily shifted to WFP, while still using national systems— before transitioning back to government delivery as conditions stabilized. In urban areas, 1.7 million poor residents, along with 379,000 internally displaced persons and 51,000 returnees, received reintegration support. Digital payments and flexible implementation approaches ensured continuity even amid active conflict. Ethiopia’s experience shows that resilient, government-owned systems— when adequately supported—can adapt and scale effectively in response to crises. In one of the most protracted and volatile crises, the World Bank’s engagement in the West Bank and Gaza also demonstrates how social protection and labor can be leveraged both to deliver critical support and to build adaptive systems for future resilience. Against the backdrop of long-standing political fragmentation and deep fiscal distress, compounded by the large-scale destruction and displacement since the 2023 conflict, the World Bank’s support has prioritized institutional anchoring, system development, and effective coordination with humanitarian and development actors. Long-term systems support played a vital role in enabling the humanitarian response to the current crisis, demonstrating that systems strengthening can continue even during periods of conflict. The support that the World Bank has provided to social protection in the West Bank and Gaza has been a vital contribution to laying the foundations of a social protection system through support to core systems, including registries and case management systems, and in training and capacity support to the network of PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 63 social workers on the ground. The systems developed will be vital in continuing to support people during the rebuilding of infrastructure and livelihoods. The support provides an example of where systems remain in place but require adaptation and coordination with humanitarian actors to sustain delivery. Despite operating in a historically active conflict zone, the Bank maintained direct engagement with the Palestinian Authority (PA) in the early phase of the engagement, notably through the Ministry of Social Development (MoSD), which leads the national social protection agenda. Early investments focused on consolidating disparate donor-financed cash assistance programs into the unified National Cash Transfer Program (NCTP), serving more than 115,000 households by 2017, predominantly in Gaza. Although the World Bank’s financial contribution was modest—covering only about 4 percent of program costs—its technical support facilitated harmonization across partners and introduced a unified proxy means-testing approach, thereby creating a more coherent system. Over time, the Bank’s engagement evolved to focus on system strengthening. Under the Social Protection Enhancement Project (SPEP), the World Bank supported the development of core delivery systems, including a national Social Registry (SR), a reduced intake form, and Case Management System (CMS) to improve the identification of poor households during the crisis and connect them to cash and non-cash services, in alignment with the country’s Social Protection strategy. Initially deployed during the COVID-19 response, the reduced intake form has guided assistance by partners, helping prevent duplication of benefits. To date, MoSD has identified more than 400,000 households in the West Bank and Gaza, complementing the 141,000 households already in the system.  These systems have become the backbone of the PA’s adaptive crisis response. As the crisis deepened and prolonged, these tools allowed development and humanitarian actors alike to deploy assistance more efficiently using a shared data platform, despite lingering challenges in data protection and information sharing. To address immediate needs under constrained PA fiscal capacity, the Bank employed an operational model combining system support with third-party implementation through UN partners. In 2023–2024, the World Bank reprogrammed $10 million to WFP to deliver in-kind assistance, while preparing SPEP-2 to deepen MoSD’s ability to manage risks and expand service delivery. This model—delivering short-term relief through partners while enhancing government capacity for long-term resilience—illustrates adaptive engagement in high-risk contexts. Coordination has been a key pillar of this engagement. The World Bank supported the establishment of the Social Protection and Cash and Voucher Assistance Thematic Working Group, co-led by MoSD and OCHA, to foster alignment between humanitarian and development actors. While the Bank’s on-the-ground presence has at times been limited, it continues to play a critical convening role, enabling complementarity among agencies and guiding donors toward systems-based approaches. The West Bank and Gaza case also exemplifies a pathway of “Adapt and Coordinate”: investing in government-led systems, adapting delivery modalities to conflict realities, and forging partnerships that bridge the divides between humanitarian and development efforts. Though implementation faces high complexity, these efforts lay the groundwork for a more shock-responsive and institutionally grounded social protection system—critical not only for immediate recovery, but for the long-term resilience of Palestinian institutions and households. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 64 Annex Box 1.4: In Short. The West Bank and Gaza: Social Protection Systems as a Platform for Coordinated Crisis Response and Preparedness for Recovery In the West Bank and Gaza, the World Bank’s support to social protection has strengthened national systems that now serve as a coordination platform for both humanitarian and development actors. Although contributing just 5 percent of Social Protection financing, the Bank’s investments in the Social Registry (135,000+ households) and Case Management System enabled the Ministry of Social Development and partners to scale up emergency support to 185,000 households during the 2023 escalation. These systems—now among the most institutionalized and interoperable in FCV settings—are linked to health, education, and ID systems, allowing humanitarian actors to increasingly align with government-led delivery. This has improved targeting, reduced duplication, and enabled faster, more effective crisis response, while strengthening institutional resilience. Build for transition (Pathway 4): Somalia Conflict ® Direct Engagement ® Limited Access ® No Social Protection system ® Build for Transition Following decades of civil conflict and institutional collapse, the Federal Government of Somalia (FGS) has gradually reasserted authority across parts of the country, initiating a state-building process grounded in the establishment of a federal system since 2012. The prolonged conflict, which began in 1991, inflicted widespread social and economic devastation, eroding public institutions and severely limiting the government’s capacity to deliver services. Until 2019, formal social protection and labor systems were virtually absent. In their place, the population relied predominantly on humanitarian aid, remittances, and informal clan-based support networks as de facto safety nets. Against this backdrop, as part of the World Bank’s broader re-engagement in Somalia, investments in social protection in 2019 focused on a dual agenda: responding to chronic poverty and food insecurity while building the foundations of a nationally led social protection and labor system. The launch of the Baxnaano program in 2019—Somalia’s first government-led safety net—was a pivotal milestone. Financed through the Shock-Responsive Safety Net for Human Capital Project (SNHCP) and subsequent AFs, Baxnaano has enabled the World Bank to help transform the social protection approach in Somalia from fragmented humanitarian relief to state-led, system-building. Recognizing the FGS’s limited capacity but commitment to leading social protection and labor reform, the World Bank adopted a tripartite model, whereby the government would lead program coordination and oversight. At the same time, TPIs—notably WFP and UNICEF—would initially support the development and implementation of the delivery system. At the same time, the World Bank would provide overall support in design, implementation, technical assistance, and capacity building, among other areas. This model was underpinned by strategic investments in foundational delivery systems and their adaptation, given Somalia’s FCV challenges. The systems included (i) a national social registry (USR) to support targeting and coordination of social assistance; (ii) a MIS; (iii) a payment system; and (iv) a strong GRM and communication system to enhance accountability, transparency, and public trust, including a PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 65 citizen engagement strategy following third-party monitoring (TPM) feedback. Conflict-sensitive targeting strategies and objectives related to women’s empowerment were incorporated into the design and implementation of the program. The initial rollout of Baxnaano followed a phased and selective approach, with implementation starting in three districts per Federal Member State (FMS). District selection was conducted in close coordination with state and local authorities, reinforcing subnational ownership and ensuring that targeting decisions reflected both operational feasibility and political sensitivity. Areas deemed completely inaccessible for monitoring due to insecurity and logistical constraints were excluded by design to reduce implementation risks and safeguard the credibility of the program. In addition, urban populations were excluded from the initial phase, primarily to avoid duplication with ongoing humanitarian interventions, particularly those targeting IDPs, who were already receiving support through humanitarian channels. This strategic focus on rural areas, which had significantly lower coverage, allowed Baxnaano to address urgent chronic food insecurity and human capital challenges in underserved regions. Recognizing the absence of government-led interventions in urban settings, the government later introduced a pilot employment-focused program in select urban areas to promote a balanced response. Building on the Baxnaano program and its delivery systems, the urban pilot was designed to foster economic inclusion and generate local economic opportunities, contributing to broader resilience and transition objectives. Finally, shock-responsiveness was embedded from the outset, allowing for both horizontal and vertical expansion during emergencies—including successful cash transfers during locust outbreaks, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the 2023 floods. From the outset, Baxnaano was designed not just to deliver cash but to support state-building by strengthening trust in the state and the social contract. While TPIs played essential roles in early implementation, the program was structured to transition to full government implementation over time. This transition is now well underway: (i) UNICEF’s systems-building role has ended, with contracts now directly managed by the Ministry of Labour and Social Affairs (MoLSA); (ii) WFP’s delivery role has shifted toward technical assistance, with implementation responsibilities increasingly absorbed by MoLSA and its PIU; (iii) Data ownership and oversight of the USR and MIS have been formally assigned to Somali institutions, with strong governance safeguards introduced. Somalia’s experience underscores that building national systems is possible even in contexts of high fragility and insecurity, provided the approach is strategic, flexible, and aligned with state-building goals. Particularly, in contexts like Somalia, social protection and labor can serve as both a tool for crisis response and a platform for state legitimacy and recovery. Looking ahead, sustaining and scaling this progress will require further institutionalization within MoLSA and across federal structures; a clear legal framework to embed social protection within Somalia’s national policy architecture; greater decentralization of implementation to FMS and local authorities; expanded multi-donor financing to reduce over-reliance on humanitarian funding and support national coverage; and continued technical support and adaptive learning, especially as Somalia’s political and fiscal conditions evolve. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 66 Annex Box 1.5: In Short. Somalia: Social Protection as a Vehicle for State-Building Toward Post- Conflict Transition In Somalia, the World Bank–supported Baxnaano program has become a cornerstone of state- building, following decades of reliance on humanitarian aid. Launched in 2019, it is the country’s first government-led social protection (Social Protection) system, designed to address chronic poverty and climate shocks through three integrated windows: human development–linked safety nets, shock-responsive support, and economic inclusion. Since its inception, the program has provided regular, nutrition- and health-linked safety nets to 200,000 chronically poor households, supported more than 320,000 households during climate shocks, and is set to launch an urban youth-focused economic inclusion initiative in 2025. Institutional capacity has also advanced, with the rollout of a digitally enabled Unified Social Registry, alongside improvements in beneficiary identification, digital delivery, and MIS development. In a context of clan-based fragmentation and state fragility, Baxnaano shows how Social Protection can rebuild trust, strengthen public service systems, and renew the social contract. Preserve and prepare for recovery (Pathway 5): Yemen Conflict ® No Direct Engagement ® TPI feasible ® Social Protection system exists ® Preserve and Prepare for Recovery With more than a decade of protracted conflict, Yemen remains a complex crisis. More than a decade of prolonged conflict, institutional fragmentation, and regional intervention has left the country devastated: More than 80 percent of the population needs humanitarian assistance; nearly 18 million people face acute food insecurity; 3.2 million children are out of school; and 40 percent of the health system is either non-functional or partially functioning. These conditions are compounded by macroeconomic collapse, widespread displacement, deepening poverty, and deteriorating public service delivery. Before the conflict erupted in 2014, Yemen had, however, laid the foundation for a national social protection system, including key institutions such as the Social Welfare Fund (SWF), the Social Fund for Development (SFD) and its subsidiary agency Small and Micro Enterprise Promotion Service (SMEPS), Public Works Project (PWP), and contributory pension schemes. Between 1996 and 2014, World Bank support helped build delivery infrastructure, develop beneficiary registries, and establish transparent and semi-autonomous institutions—particularly the SFD and PWP, and supported the implementation of key reforms of the SWF program. All these programs have a presence in every governorate. When direct engagement with the government became impossible after the conflict escalated, the World Bank pivoted swiftly and strategically, activating Operational Policy 7.30 (Development Cooperation and Conflict) to re-engage through partnerships with UNICEF and UNDP. These third-party implementers became operational intermediaries, while national quasi-governmental institutions, such as SFD, SMEPS, and PWP, continued to deliver services on the ground across conflict lines. At the heart of Yemen’s Social Protection and Labor response has been the preservation and use of national institutions. Entities like SFD and PWP maintained operational autonomy and political neutrality, allowing them to function across divided territories. These institutions were seen as legitimate, accountable, PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 67 and community-rooted—essential features for any engagement in high-risk FCV contexts. Working with these quasi-governmental institutions, with the support of TPIs, providing strong safeguards and risk management processes, enabled continued support to national systems even when working directly with the government was not possible under the World Bank’s Operational Policy 7.30. UNICEF and UNDP acted as temporary enablers, not substitutes, of national systems—supporting delivery while investing in local capacities, technical systems, and a path to eventual transition. Even in areas under de facto authority control, social protection delivery remained largely insulated from politicization, with grievance mechanisms, third-party monitoring, and risk mitigation strategies guiding implementation. Yemen’s Social Protection and Labor delivery model has continued to evolve. Payments shifted from post offices to a network of vetted private banks, utilizing both mobile and fixed agents. Targeting systems were adapted with a conflict-sensitive “distress index” using food insecurity and displacement indicators. Digital inclusion and ID programs were piloted and could be scaled up to promote financial access and national ID registration. A youth-focused microwork and digital skills initiative is currently under development as part of a broader strategy for productive inclusion. Community-level design choices—such as childcare provision and flexible hours—enabled broader participation by women in public works. Yemen offers a clear demonstration of why social protection engagement must continue, even in the most fragile contexts. The ability to preserve and adapt delivery systems, sustain national institutions, and provide predictable support at scale has helped buffer the population from further collapse—and provided a platform for future recovery. Even without direct government engagement, the World Bank was able to remain fully aligned with its development mandate—protecting human capital, promoting resilience, and maintaining a platform for rebuilding state legitimacy. Annex Box 1.6: In Short. Yemen: Social Protection and Labor systems as a Channel to Preserve Institutions and Build Readiness for Recovery In Yemen, Social Protection and Labor has served as a critical shield for institutional continuity amid state fragmentation and prolonged conflict. In Yemen, sustained investment in Social Protection and Labor systems during protracted conflict has preserved institutional capacity. Even after direct government engagement became impossible, the World Bank continued to engage through UN agencies while maintaining implementation through local Social Protection institutions and systems. As a result, core Social Protection and Labor institutions remained operational, delivering safety nets to more than 9 million of the poorest people and nutrition-linked assistance to 678,000 mothers and young children. Public works programs provided jobs for 450,000 people, including youth and women, while also contributing to community resilience through the paving of 843 km of roads, rehabilitation of 2,552 classrooms, and protection of 36,910 hectares of agricultural land. Additionally, 5,800 small and medium enterprises received support, reinforcing local livelihoods. Yemen’s Social Protection system has continued to evolve, with expanded digital inclusion, national ID registration, and a youth- focused microwork and digital skills initiative under development. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 68 Deliver and design for transferability (Pathway 6): Sudan Conflict ® No Direct Engagement ® TPI feasible ® No Social Protection system ® Deliver and Design for Transferability Since the 2021 military takeover and the outbreak of full-scale conflict in April 2023, Sudan has experienced institutional collapse, widespread violence, and an acute humanitarian crisis. Government institutions have been dismantled or become inoperable, civil servants have fled, and physical infrastructure, including government offices and administrative systems, has been destroyed. Amid these conditions, direct engagement with the government has been unfeasible, requiring the World Bank to work exclusively through TPIs. In a context like Sudan, Social Protection engagement has been rooted in a nexus between rapid response and medium-term development, leveraging parallel delivery mechanisms when necessary, while ensuring that investments in systems and administrative capacity are not entirely lost. This reflects a dual objective: meet urgent needs and protect against persistent shocks, while designing and building for future transferability to national systems once conditions allow. The engagement has therefore focused on delivery through TPIs, specifically WFP and UNICEF, accompanied by efforts to maintain or rebuild basic operational systems (e.g., a MIS, GRM, and beneficiary registries) originally developed under earlier government-led programs. Lastly, the engagement leverages synergies through a number of complementary projects across different sectors, with the aim to enhance sustainability and the development impact of interventions in highly volatile setting. Following the military takeover, the World Bank launched the Sudan Emergency Safety Nets Project (SESNP).73 This $100 million emergency operation, implemented by WFP from 2022 to 2024, delivered cash transfers to 1.98 million people and in-kind food assistance to more than 670,000 individuals. The design was intentionally simple, conflict-sensitive, and technology-enabled, drawing on WFP’s existing beneficiary data via the SCOPE platform. Around 1.4 million people were registered, verified, and enrolled in the program using biometric registration, and a hybrid system for tracking enquiries, complaints, and grievances (GRM) was established and operationalized. As the conflict intensified in 2023, Bank resources were redirected to support displaced populations and host communities. The Sudan Community Resilience Project (SOMOUD, renamed Thabat) was approved in 2024. SOMOUD has focused on reaching vulnerable populations in more secure regions through community-level targeting and engagement, adopting a multi-sectoral approach. To prepare for the transition back from TPIs to government systems while still maintaining direct government engagement is impossible, the SOMOUD project adopted a middle way approach based on local capacity. The project has shifted the operational approach from pure humanitarian relief toward building community resilience and early recovery through community-level service provision. While still maintaining delivery through TPIs, SOMOUD has begun to restore local-level delivery functions and strengthen community systems that had partially withstood the state collapse. The project supports multi-sectoral interventions which include assistance to smallholder 73 The emerge of a ‘de-facto government’ required the World Bank to halt disbursements under ongoing operations, specifically the Sudan Family Support Program (SFSP, P173521). The SFSP aimed to provide cash assistance to poor Sudanese families, improve social safety nets, and help recipients cope with shocks. The government engaged WFP to provide technical and implementation support for beneficiary enrollment and registration and for the establishment of a social registry. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 69 farmers, support for irrigation infrastructure rehabilitation, investments in basic services such as water access, education, health and sanitation. These activities are delivered in areas where community-based institutions, local NGOs, or decentralized government bodies still maintain a degree of functionality, allowing the Bank and its TPIs to build on existing capacities rather than create parallel structures from scratch. In 2024, as the situation on the ground continued to decline and food security and poverty outlooks worsened, the World Bank approved the Sudan SANAD project to help protect human capital and further support access to key services. The project provides unconditional cash transfers to vulnerable populations in high IDP concentration areas, as well as delivering human capital sensitive cash transfers targeted to vulnerable pregnant and lactating women. These interventions are closely coordinated with other World Bank-financed projects that support the supply side of health services to incentivize the uptake of critical maternal health and early child development services. The project adopts a climate-sensitive approach by prioritizing localities with high to medium exposure to droughts and floods. Even as implementation occurs outside the formal government system, Social Protection engagement emphasizes preserving and rebuilding core elements of a national social protection system. These include (i) building the foundations of a social registry, including biometric identification for beneficiary verification; (ii) reinforcing grievance redress and feedback mechanisms to promote accountability and community trust; (iii) expanding digital payment systems to enhance payment portability for displaced populations—despite challenging infrastructure constraints; and (iv) TPM to track delivery integrity and collect data for learning. In this way, SANAD provides a testing ground for re-engaging to support the most vulnerable and promote resilient service delivery in active conflict settings. While TPIs remain the operational leads, the project includes efforts to strengthen ownership and capacity at the local and subnational level. This includes the use of community targeting committees, participatory monitoring, and support for grievance redress mechanisms—the training for community stakeholders, such as Mother Leaders who are champions of behavioral change. Additionally, the project aims to deliver support to 35 percent of beneficiaries through non-cash methods (e-wallets and e-vouchers). Lastly the overlap in some of the project areas with other supply side interventions aims to leverage synergies to enable service delivery. Sudan’s case illustrates that even when rapid delivery through TPIs and parallel systems is necessary to protect human capital, it still can—and must—be linked to strategic system-building efforts, even when formal government engagement is impossible. The World Bank has been able to maintain presence and deliver at scale through third-party channels, while preserving the vision and building foundations of a future government-led system that will help recovery and transition. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 70 Annex Box 1.7: In Short. Sudan: Social Protection as a Bridge Toward Future State Rebuilding. Following the suspension of direct support to the government in 2021 and the escalation of conflict in 2023, the World Bank redirected resources under the Sudan Family Support Program (SFSP) to launch multi-sector interventions focused on protecting human capital and resilience-building in the absence of a functioning state. Implemented through TPIs, the Sudan Emergency Safety Nets Project (SESNP) reached 1.98 million people with cash transfers and more than 670,000 with food aid. This was followed by the SOMOUD project, which expanded efforts to community-level interventions to support smallholder farmers, including infrastructure rehabilitation and the delivery of basic services such as water, health, and education in areas with functioning local structures. The 2024 Sudan SANAD project further scaled support with cash transfers for vulnerable groups, including pregnant and lactating women, while integrating maternal and early childhood health incentives. It also introduced digital payment methods (e-wallets, e-vouchers) and trained community leaders to support behavioral change. Across all projects, the engagement in Sudan followed an adaptive approach to addressing emerging development challenges in a fluid context, while also preserving and enhancing Social Protection and Labor delivery tools, including a biometric-based digital registry covering 2.7 million individuals, payment systems, and a grievance redress mechanism. This strategy aims to ensure that investments made during active conflict can serve as the backbone for re- establishing national systems once political and security conditions allow.Bottom of Form Strengthen for prevention and transition (Pathway 7): Chad Fragility ® Direct Engagement ® Social Protection system exists ® Strengthen for Prevention and Transition Chad faces fragility, characterized by deep structural vulnerabilities, large-scale displacement, and recurrent climatic and conflict-induced shocks. While direct government engagement is feasible, the national Social Protection and Labor system is in its infancy—fragmented, limited in reach, and heavily donor-dependent.74 In this setting, the World Bank’s engagement has focused on laying the foundations of a national Social Protection and Labor system, using adaptive programming to build the institutional architecture for long-term resilience. World Bank support to Chad’s social protection system began in 2015 with a modest pilot and has since evolved into two major operations: the Refugees and Host Communities Support Project (PARCA) and the Adaptive and Productive Safety Nets Project (PFSAP), jointly mobilizing more than US$260 million in financing. These operations have introduced essential delivery systems, including cash transfers, social registries, and early warning mechanisms. Despite Chad’s limited institutional capacity, the Bank, leveraging close dialogue with the government, opted for a government-led model, prioritizing system-building over short-term delivery speed. This approach reflects a strategic prioritization of long-term system-building and ownership over rapid delivery, recognizing that sustainable impact in FCV contexts hinges on strengthening national institutions. 74 Coudouel, A., Fuselli, S., and Saidi, M., 2023, Stress testing adaptive social protection systems in the Sahel - Flagship Report (English). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/ en/099120723090523741/pdf/P173603067594d0480b1de0b427701451dd.pdf. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 71 Interventions were deliberately sequenced. Initial support focused on refugee-hosting areas, promoting social cohesion through targeted investments in local infrastructure, with a balanced approach (70 percent host communities, 30 percent refugees). This focus aligned with incentives from the IDA19 Window for Host Communities and Refugees, which encouraged national inclusion of displaced populations. As capacity grew, engagement expanded to nine provinces. Chad’s nascent Social Protection architecture now includes a growing social registry, an emerging MIS, and a national strategy that sets an ambitious target to reach 1 million poor beneficiaries by 2028. Institutions such as the National Commission for the Reception and Reintegration of Refugees and Returnees (Commission Nationale d’Accueil et de Réinsertion des Réfugiés et des Repatriés, CNARR) (for refugee management) and the National Institute for Statistics and Economic and Demographic Studies (Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques et Démographiques, INSEED) (for data systems) are being strengthened, while innovations—like psycho-social support modules and mobile-ID based payments—reflect adaptations to Chad’s complex risk landscape. Chad’s experience highlights the importance of government-led system-building as an institutional anchor that can contribute to conflict prevention even in fragility. The approach in Chad underscores that prevention and resilience can be strategically pursued from the outset, provided engagement is adaptive and coordinated across sectors and actors. Annex Box 1.8: In Short. Chad: Social Protection as a Platform for Conflict Prevention through Social Cohesion in Refugee-Affected Areas Chad, one of the Sahel’s most fragile and displacement-affected countries, demonstrates how Social Protection and Labor can be a catalyst for prevention and social cohesion. With more than 1.44 million refugees and 225,689 IDPs, World Bank operations—PARCA and PFSAP —reached 260,000 households, integrating refugees and host communities in the national Social Protection and Labor system. They have also laid the groundwork for future scale-up through investments in core delivery systems, productive inclusion, and institutional strengthening. Investments in the national social registry (700,000+ households, of which 9 percent are refugee households) and productive inclusion activities led to improved consumption, food security, and women’s livelihoods. Recent RCTs showed positive welfare impacts from lean Social Protection and Labor models. The Chad experience highlights how investing in inclusive, nationally owned social protection systems can foster social cohesion, strengthen resilience in fragile settings, and build the institutional foundations for long- term development. Lay system foundations for prevention and resilience (Pathway 8): Papua New Guinea Fragility ® Direct Engagement ® No Social Protection system ® Lay System Foundations for Prevention and Resilience Papua New Guinea’s fragility is rooted in chronic structural challenges, including geographic isolation, political instability, weak state capacity, and persistent violence at the local level. These conditions have undermined service delivery and institutional trust, particularly in rural and remote regions. Although PNG has not faced large-scale conflict, the compounding risks of climate shocks, localized insecurity, and uneven development have heightened the need for an adaptive and coordinated Social Protection response. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 72 Social Protection and Labor engagement in PNG reflects a forward-looking and preventive strategy. Rather than responding to acute crises, the approach emphasizes building and strengthening national systems to pre-empt deterioration and to support a more inclusive and stable development trajectory. The operational context is defined by a relatively peaceful political setting but with significant fragility risks— especially in provinces where the state’s presence is limited, and basic services are patchy or absent. The strategy, focused on building the institutional foundations of a national Social Protection and Labor system, has been operationalized through the flagship Child Nutrition and Social Protection (CNSP) Project. The government has implemented the CNSP since 2022, supported through a $90 million financing from the World Bank and the Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT). The CNSP has focused on strengthening the Ministry of Community Development and Religion (DfCDR) as the lead agency for Social Protection and Labor delivery. Given the fragmented landscape of development actors and local authorities, coordination became a central priority. From an operational perspective, the Social Protection and Labor model in PNG relies heavily on partnerships. While national institutions provide policy direction and coordination, TPIs, including NGOs and church-based organizations, remain critical for last-mile delivery, particularly in remote and rural regions. The World Bank has supported the government in defining roles and accountability structures for these actors, ensuring that Social Protection and Labor interventions are delivered consistently and transparently. PNG’s experience shows that social protection can be a strategic tool not only for responding to crises but also for preventing them. By investing in systems before shocks escalate and strengthening state institutions to deliver services equitably, the World Bank’s engagement can help lay the foundation for more resilient and inclusive governance. The PNG case underscores the importance of adapting to operational constraints while coordinating actors around a shared institutional vision—an approach that is crucial for addressing fragility and sustaining development in vulnerable settings. Annex Box 1.9: In Short. PNG: Social Protection as a Tool for Promoting Conflict Prevention, Institutional Resilience, and State Capacity The World Bank’s support for social protection in Papua New Guinea (PNG) through the $90 million Child Nutrition and Social Protection (CNSP) Project illustrates how social protection systems can be established in highly fragile, low-capacity settings with minimal pre-existing infrastructure. In such contexts, engagement begins with foundational efforts, including maintaining a continuous focus on communicating the basic elements of social protection and sustaining policy dialogue to promote a shared understanding of social protection across government actors, generate political will and buy-in, and establish basic delivery systems. While direct engagement with government has been feasible, the nascent nature of PNG’s social protection system has required strong operational partnerships with INGOs, national civil society organizations, and the private sector. These actors have played a crucial role in building government capacity and ensuring continuity of implementation. Early results from pilot areas show that the child grant is increasingly seen as a visible and credible manifestation of the state at the local level. This visibility has the potential to contribute not only to human capital outcomes but also to state legitimacy, potentially addressing some of the drivers of fragility, conflict and violence, by reinforcing the state’s role in delivering essential services. PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 73 ANNEX II. WBG FY25 FCV List Conflict Institutional and Social Fragility Afghanistan Burundi Burkina Faso Chad Cameroon Comoros Central African Republic Congo, Republic of Congo, Democratic Republic of Eritrea Ethiopia Guinea-Bissau Haiti Kiribati Iraq Kosovo Lebanon Libya Mali Marshall Islands Mozambique Micronesia, Federated States of Myanmar Papua New Guinea Niger São Tomé and Príncipe Nigeria Solomon Islands Somalia Timor-Leste South Sudan Tuvalu Sudan Venezuela, RB Syrian Arab Republic Zimbabwe Ukraine West Bank and Gaza (territory) Yemen, Republic of PLANTING ROOTS IN SHIFTING SOIL | 74 References ACLED (2024) Conflict index: December 2024, https://acleddata.com/conflict-index/ Al Ahmadi and De Silva (2018) Delivering social protection in the midst of conflict and crisis: the case of Yemen, social protection and jobs, discussion paper Al-Ahmadi, A. and Zampaglione, G. 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