SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE     JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Blue Social Protection Series: HIGHLIGHT Protecting People, Fish and Food Among key challenges confronting Kenya’s over-exploited fisheries sector, fishing and Supporting sustainability aquaculture workers are very vulnerable: they work longer hours, earn less money, in Kenya’s fisheries and have less access to social protection through social protection than workers in other sectors. Furthermore, climate change threatens to make fisheries and labor market workers and their livelihoods even more interventions vulnerable. To address these challenges, the report proposes four key policy channels: (i) strengthen social protection systems Kevwe Pela, Samantha De Martino, to mitigate short and medium-term harm Federica Ricaldi, and David Japp1 resulting from necessary management and regulation improvements for fishing activities; (ii) encourage private-sector investment in fisheries; (iii) incentivize 1 This note benefitted from fruitful monthly discussions sustainable fishing practices, including from SPJ/ENB knowledge-exchange webinar. certifications and registration initiatives; Research assistance was provided by Fawzia and (iv) diversify the economy, assess skill Muhammed Zuka, consultant for Social Protection and Jobs Group. Special thanks to Stephen Akester, levels, and promote alternative livelihoods Annabelle Bladon, Diji Chandrasekharan Behr, for fisheries workers. Gunilla Tegelskär Greig, Alastair Peter Francis Haynes, Kevin Sanya Heraniah, Gianluigi Nico, Yuko Okamura, Elizabeth N. Ruppert Bulmer, Ramya Sundaram, Ruth Tiffer-Sotomayor, Vincenzo Vinci and Okindo Ben Miranga for useful comments and suggestions. We also extend our gratitude to Aldo Morri for editing the note. 1 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 1. Introduction COVID-19 pandemic, fallout from the war in Ukraine, and recurring climatic shocks. Over This report identifies opportunities to create the last decade, Kenya’s economy experienced an new and better jobs, improve fisheries average annual growth of 4.5 percent, leading to management, and foster more sustainable a reduction in poverty from 47 percent in 2005 practices. Using data from the latest Kenya to 34 percent in 2019, based on the US$1.90 per Continuous Household Survey (KCHS, 2019) day poverty line (World Bank, 2019). The poverty and Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey elasticity of growth, which was trailing other lower (KIHBS, 2015/16), this report examines the middle-income countries (LMICs), also declined status of Kenya’s fishing and aquaculture sector, from 0.43 percent (2005-15) to 0.27  percent recognizing its potential to alleviate poverty and (2015-19) (World Bank, 2022). In 2021, the address food insecurity. However, the sector faces COVID-19 shock dealt a severe negative blow to challenges, including overexploitation stemming the economy, leading to disruptions in international from unregulated and informal fishing activities trade, transportation, tourism, and urban service and ineffective management of fishing efforts. activities. Additionally, repercussions from the war The findings underscore a crucial aspect of Kenya’s in Ukraine and related sanctions on Russia led to labor market: it is characterized by a rapidly growing a global increase in food, fuel, and fertilizer prices, population and the challenges of engaging the contributing to heightened food insecurity. An workforce productively, both of which contribute ongoing drought in Kenya further exacerbates to an increase in informal activities. Particularly food insecurity and poses a threat to livelihoods in coastal regions, unregulated informal fishing in affected regions, necessitating increased social practices contribute to overexploitation of aquatic spending on food assistance (World Bank, 2022). resources, posing a significant threat to the sector’s sustainability. Poverty and vulnerability to climate change are closely intertwined in Kenya. Increases in temperatures could lead to more frequent drought 1.1. Country Context conditions and significantly threaten water and food security, especially in the arid and semi-arid Kenya’s economic context and 1.1.1.  lands (ASAL) that cover over 85 percent of Kenya. the fisheries sector Coastal counties, classified as part of Kenya’s ASAL (except Mombasa), stand out as some Despite a decade of overall robust economic of the least developed counties in the country, growth and substantial poverty reduction with 44.7 percent of the population classified in Kenya, progress has slowed due to the as multi-dimensionally poor, compared to the 2 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 national average of 37.5 percent (OPHI, 2023).2 2017) all combine to degradation.5 Inadequate The situation worsens when examining monetary management and control of fishing has also poverty, with over 62 percent of its population harmed key habitats including reef structure; living below the poverty line (World Bank, 2016). mangroves, which represent critical fish nursery areas; and seagrass beds. The depth of Kenya’s Kenya’s “Blue Economy”, encompassing marine waters largely restrict small-scale fishers ocean sectors such as fisheries, faces several to territorial seas (<12 nm), where expanding challenges despite holding significant coastal populations and relatively simple fishing potential to address poverty and food techniques have undermined the long-term insecurities.3 Notably, the fisheries sector holds viability and sustainability of coastal fisheries. The significant potential to contribute to food and decline in small-scale fish catch by 40 percent since nutrition security and foster development in 2004 (McClanahan & Mangi, 2004)6 provides coastal areas.4 The sector has potential to increase evidence for the negative effects on Kenya’s income generation along various value chains, fishing resources. Furthermore, illegal, unreported, including marine and inland capture fishing, fish and unregulated (IUU) fishing by large-scale processing, boat building and repairs, boat rental, industrial fishing operators also threatens resource and other fishing recreational activities. However, preservation. the sector’s challenges include the fact that Kenya’s rapidly growing population places stress Climate change exacerbates local threats. on ocean resources, leading to the degradation of Climate change is already exacerbating the marine ecosystem. Unsustainable extraction vulnerabilities to environmental shocks, such of marine resources, marine pollution (including as floods, droughts, and heatwaves. By 2030, oil discharges and toxic waste dumping), and the coastal flooding is projected to affect about physical modification and destruction of marine 10,000-86,000 Kenyans (Dwumfour, et al., 2019). and coastal habitats (Vierros & De Fontaubert, Rising sea levels and erosion could lead to loss 2 The global Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) was created using the multidimensional measurement method of Alkire and Foster (AF).1 The global MPI is an index of acute multidimensional poverty that covers over 100 countries. It is computed using data from the most recent Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS), Multiple Indicator Cluster Surveys (MICS), Pan Arab Project for Family Health (PAPFAM) and national surveys. The MPI has 3 dimensions (education, health and living standard) and 10 indicators (cooking fuel, sanitation, drinking water, electricity, housing and assets) 3 Note, for the purposes of this report, the paper uses the African Union definition of the Blue Economy which includes both ocean and freshwater resources in line with Kenya’s context where fisheries activities are dominated in freshwater areas. https://www.au-ibar.org/sites/default/files/2020-10/sd_20200313_africa_blue_economy_strategy_en.pdf 4 The fisheries sector encompasses both marine and freshwater lakes and involves every aspect of the fisheries value chain. This includes fishing itself and all related activities pre and post harvesting, such as processing, trading, marketing, net mending, and boat building 5 Between 2000 and 2019 Kenya’s coastal population increased from three to four million (GOK, 2019; Kamau, et al., 2021) 6 https://cordioea.net/fisheries-research/small-scale-fisheries/kenyas-artisanal-fisheries/ 3 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 of coastal wetlands, with projected economic preserving ecosystems, habitats, and flora and damage ranging from an estimate US$7 million fauna that transcend international boundaries. The to US$58 million by 2030, and US$31 million to GoK has made efforts in recent years to improve US$313 million by 2050 (Dwumfour, et al., 2019). monitoring, control, and surveillance of their Additionally, ocean acidification threatens marine fisheries including: i) working with Kenya Coast ecosystems, potentially triggering a collapse in Guard Service (KCGS) to patrol its territorial waters nearshore shallow reef systems that provide a (including lakes and rivers), ii) acquiring patrol habitat to 25 percent of all marine species. This vessels, and iii) installing a Vessel Monitoring System includes demersal fish, crustaceans, and mollusks (VMS) in Mombasa to strengthen surveillance in associated with reefs, mangroves, seagrass beds, or the Kenya Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) through sandy areas (CFFA, 2021; Overbeeke, et al., 2022). the KCGS (Government of Kenya, 2017). However, The health of phytoplankton and zooplankton the effectiveness of these efforts to address the is also at risk, posing risks to the marine food sector’s challenges are yet to be determined amidst chain, biodiversity, and coral reefs that are vital for the slow process of implementing these measures. both fish availability and tourism activities along This includes the ongoing Kenya Marine Fisheries the Kenyan coastline (Overbeeke, et al., 2022). A Social Economic Development Project (KEMFSED), healthy coral reef system is not only essential for aimed at strengthening co-management networks fish availability but also for enhancing the tourism through the establishment of more Joint on which the entire Kenyan coastline depends. Co-management Areas (JCMAs). Additionally, concerns about the environmental state of Kenya’s While the Government of Kenya (GoK) has coastal and freshwater zones cast doubt on established some mitigation measures, whether its resources can be safely explored and the state of Kenya’s coastal environment utilized to contribute effectively to food security and marine resources raises concerns and poverty alleviation. about whether fisheries can be sustainably exploited and serve as the “next frontier” 1.1.2. Overview of Kenya’s for food security. Kenya has created a largely fisheries sector uniform, ecologically connected network of Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) and established a network Kenya is endowed with valuable coastal and of “Locally Managed Areas” (LMAs) underpinned freshwater resources. Kenya’s coastline extends by a co-management system comprised of about 600 km along the seafront, from the Kenya-​ Beach Management Units (BMUs) spread across Somalia border at Ishakani in the north (1.7°S; the coast. All six of Kenya’s current MPAs were 41.5°E) to the Kenya-Tanzania border at Vanga created between 1968 and 1993 are tasked with in the south (4.7°S; 39.2°E). The administrative 4 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 boundaries of coastal counties—namely Kwale, Fisheries, including both marine and freshwater, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River, and Lamu7— currently make up only about 0.5 percent of GDP. determine the landward geographical scope of However, recent studies suggest that national coastal Kenya. Kenya’s coast is endowed with statistics do not account for all small-scale fisheries. a diverse range of natural resources, as well as Historically, marine fisheries were reported to biologically diverse ecosystems and landscapes. yield approximately 9,134 metric tons, valued at These resources support key economic sectors around 2.3 billion Ksh (US$7 million). However, Le such as fisheries, trade livestock, forestry, tourism, Manarch et al. (2015) highlights that this estimate transportation, mining, and energy. They also could be as much as 2.8 times higher, with provide critical ecosystem goods and services for unreported landings representing up to 63 percent nutrition and food security, as well as livelihood of the total catch. Even with this revised estimate, and socioeconomic development, which improves the contribution of fisheries to GDP remains low the overall well-being of coastal communities. and, to a large degree, inefficient. To fully harness Kenya’s fisheries resources and increase the sector’s The largest share of total fishing production GDP contribution, it is imperative to manage comes from Lake Victoria and a few other and regulate small-scale fisheries effectively. inland lakes as opposed to coastal counties. Implementing a regulatory and governance The highest share of fish production in Kenya is framework for small-scale fisheries activities, derived from freshwater sources, estimated at should take place alongside facilitating access to 70  percent in 2021, followed by coastal sources quality education, training, and opportunities for at  17 percent, and aquaculture at 13 percent upskilling and reskilling for small-scale fishers. (GOK, 2022). However, as in other sectors of Kenya’s 1.1.3. Social protection and economy, investments are needed in human jobs system capital and productivity to sustainably develop the fisheries sector. In 2014, while Kenya’s Social Protection system has the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region produced continued to develop over the last decade, approximately 900,000 metric tons of tuna, valued but coverage remains low, especially for at approximately US$ 6.5 billion, Kenyan marine those without formal employment. While fisheries produced only approximately 212 metric Social Protection and Jobs remain an important tons, accounting for a mere 0.023 percent of total pillar of the Government’s Bottom-Up Economic WIO tuna production (Macfadyen et al., 2016). 7 Although Taita Teveta does not boarder the ocean, it is considered in the economic block for coastal counties and reports some fishing activities hence we have included it in our analysis. 5 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Transformation Agenda (BETA), only 8.7 percent social safety nets are primarily accessible only to of Kenyans benefit from any form of social safety those in the formal sector. Among those employed, net, even though 36 percent of the population lives 70 percent (about 12.5 million people) work in in extreme poverty (World Bank, 2023a) and 37.5 low-productivity, informal employment, while percent are multidimensionally poor (OPHI, 2023). only 14 percent work in the formal sector (World Limited safety-net coverage is linked to low Bank, 2023b).8 This situation presents significant investment on social protection, accounting for less challenges for fishing and aquaculture workers, the than 2 percent of GDP (Figure 1.1). At the same majority of whom are informally employed, leaving time, the poor quality of jobs also limits access, as them without adequate social protection coverage. FIGURE 1.1: KENYA’S SOCIAL PROTECTION SECTOR, MAPPED ACROSS THE LIFE-CYCLE Children Working age Old age Kenya's SP system Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) 0.08% GDP General Food Distribution (GFD) 0.02% GDP Cash Transfer – Orphans Persons with Severe Older Persons and Vulnerable 0.13% GDP Disabilities Cash 0.02% GDP Cash Transfer 0.11% GDP Social assistance Children (CT-OVC) Transfer (PwSD-CT) (OPCT) School Feeding 0.02% GDP Cash and Food for 0.04% GDP Assets (CFA/FFA) National Social 0.20% GDP Security Fund (NSSF) Civil Service Pension Scheme (CSPS) 0.60% GDP Social security Private retirement schemes Health insurance National Hospital Insurance Fund (NHIF) 0.30% GDP Source: Kenya Ministry of Labour and Social Protection9 8 Individuals can work in formal employment, upper-tier informal employment, or lower-tier informal employment. Formal wage employment is when an individual has a written contract, has social security, and some benefits such as paid leave. Formal self-employment is when the individual works in the modern-sectors and is registered as self-employed. Upper-tier informal employment can also be wage or self, where the individual is working in higher skilled International Standards of Classifications of Occupations (ISCO) codes (such as managers, professionals, technicians) or has some job-related benefits. The rest of those employed work in lower-tier informal employment. 9 The figures for NSSF and NHIF refer to their annual income from contributions, rather than their expenditures. 6 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Innovations introduced to Kenya’s social demand side, the interventions are designed to protection system provide valuable lessons. boost job creation. The programs also include linking For instance, Kenya’s flagship Hunger Safety labor supply and demand through intermediation Net Programme (HSNP) has demonstrated interventions to connect employers with job effectiveness in delivering regular income support seekers in the labor market (Sundaram et al. 2019). to food-insecure households in northern Kenya, However, these programs have limited coverage with a remarkable capacity to respond swiftly to and effectiveness, given that their expenditure climatic shocks. Additionally, initiatives like the Haba remains low, accounting for only 0.1 percent of Haba and Mbao pension plans have empowered GDP (as of 2016, the latest available data). There is informal sector workers to save for retirement, also a prevailing issue of fragmentation among the contributing to financial security in later life. The numerous programs and implementing agencies, country has also implemented comprehensive coupled with inadequate monitoring and evaluation support programs for vulnerable youth, including to measure their effectiveness at meeting goals. women, under the auspices of various youth Additionally, coverage for most programs is limited employment projects, such as the Kenya Youth for poor and vulnerable youth, and for those in the Employment and Opportunities Project (KYEOP). informal sector. Furthermore, the intermediation These projects address labor market constraints programs exhibit modest effectiveness but lack from both the supply and demand sides, aiming up-to-date information regarding labor demand.10 to provide meaningful employment opportunities. With support from the World Bank, Kenya’s Youth Simultaneously, Kenya’s social protection system Employment and Opportunities Program (KYEOP) is continuously modernizing by leveraging digital and the National Youth Training Program (NYOTA) payment infrastructure and making significant stand out as the only comprehensive job programs in investments in platforms like the Enhanced Single the country. These initiatives address both demand Registry (ESR), which aims to deliver rapid and and supply-side labor market issues and provide effective social and economic services to poor and intermediation services for vulnerable youth. vulnerable households. NYOTA, the successor to KYEOP, will aims to guide vulnerable youth into sustainable employment. The The government has also initiated several programs will complement other initiatives such active labor market programs (ALMPs) to as the Kenya Jobs and Economic Transformation, address market constraints, but several Kenya Industry and Entrepreneurship, and in challenges persist. On the supply side, these particular the Marine Fisheries and Socio-Economic interventions aim to enhance skills, while on the Development projects. 10 These and other challenges are detailed at length in the Kenya Social Protection and Jobs Public Expenditure Review, World Bank, 2023. 7 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 2. Data and Methods survey questionnaire. This module collect data that can be used to compute a vast array of The analysis primarily uses data from the variables instrumental for analyzing Kenya’s 2019 Kenya Continuous Household Survey labor market. The labor module helps identify (KCHS) and the 2015/16 Integrated Household household member employed in fishing and Budget Survey (KIHBS).11 Both surveys are aquaculture, using the international standard representative at the national and county level, industrial classification (ISIC). Moreover, leveraging drawing from the fifth National Sample Survey the sub-national representativeness of the survey, and Evaluation Program (NASSEP V) master frame, we can identify coastal communities according to which originated from Kenya’s 2009 Population geographic location of sampled households, such and Housing Census (KPHC).12 Of particular as by counties of residence. Box 1.1 defines fishing importance for our subsequent analysis is the and aquaculture workers and households, as well labor module embedded within the household as coastal and lake/river communities. BOX 1.1: RELEVANT CLASSIFICATIONS • Fishing or wild-capture harvesting refers to activities to harvest live, wild aquatic organisms (predominantly fish, molluscs, and crustaceans) from oceanic, coastal (marine fishing as per ISIC code 0311), or inland waters (as per ISIC code 0312) (UN, 2008). • Aquaculture or fish farming refers to activities to farm live, wild aquatic organisms (predominantly fish, molluscs, crustaceans, and aquatic plants) from either marine (ISIC code 0321) or inland waters (ISIC code 0322) (UN, 2008). • Fishers (fishing workers) and aquaculture workers are defined as all persons employed in activities connected to wild capture harvesting and fish farming, respectively. Fishers and aquaculture workers do not include workers engaged in fish processing and trading, as well as those engaged in other upstream sectors of the value chain (such as building boats). The 2019 KCHS data reported about 152 individuals (unweighted), while the KIHB 2015/16 data reported about 70 individuals (unweighted). • Fishing and aquaculture households are defined as those in which at least one member is employed in either fishing or aquaculture activities. • Coastal communities include counties located within Kenya’s coastal administrative boundaries: namely Kwale, Mombasa, Kilifi, Tana River, Lamu, and Taita-Taveta. • Lake/river (freshwater) communities include Kenyan counties endowed with lakes and rivers: Turkana, Marsabit, Busia, Homabay, Kisumu, Migori, Siaya, and Nakuru. 11 The 2019 KCHS conducted by The Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (KNBS) is a household survey designed to provide welfare estimates for various socio-economic indicators at national and county levels. 12 The 2019 dataset comprises 1,684 clusters (primary sampling units) selected with Probability Proportional to Size (PPS) from 96,251 Enumeration Areas (EAs) identified in the 2009 Population and Housing Census. Within each cluster, 15  households were randomly selected (secondary sampling units). The final sample size consists of more than 25 thousand households. 8 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 However, it is crucial to acknowledge key are worse off. Poverty is prevalent in Kenya, data limitations. The KCHS 2019 dataset includes with approximately 36 percent of the population a more restricted set of variables compared to the living in poverty (Figure  3.1). Among the six KIHBS 2015/16. Therefore, when essential data for coastal counties, half of them report poverty rates our analysis were not available in the KCHS 2019 exceeding the national average, with Tana River dataset, this study incorporates and references having the highest level at 62 percent, followed relevant information from the KIHBS 2015/16. The by Kwale at 47 percent, and Kilifi at 46 percent. absence of GPS coordinates in the data prevent us Similarly, among the freshwater counties, half from conducting a more detailed analysis of coastal of them also report poverty rates surpassing the communities in close proximity to coasts, lakes, or national average. Turkana stands at the highest level rivers. Consequently, our analysis primarily relies on with 79 percent, followed by Busia at 69 percent, county-level information to explore labor market Marsabit at 64 percent, and Migori at 41 percent. outcomes of coastal and inland communities. It Those engaged in fishing and aquaculture have the is also worth noting that the KCHS 2019 data do highest poverty rate at 51 percent compared to not capture fish processors, traders, or workers 44 percent of agricultural workers and 36 percent engaged in post-harvest fishing activities. Hence, of the country’s average (Figure 3.2). while the overall report focuses on the whole fisheries sector, our data analysis only focuses on FIGURE 3.1: POVERTY RATE BY COUNTY, 2015/16 workers and households in fishing and aquaculture. Finally, due to the small sample size of fishing and 80 aquaculture workers, we chose not to analyze these 70 60 two categories separately. Instead, we aggregated 50 all fishing (including inland and coastal fishing) and 40 aquaculture workers into one category. 30 20 10 3. Main Findings 0 M it ma ri Kis ay Ta K le Ta fi ta om u sa l na M sia u N a na ru Kw r ta e y um ita ili M am b Ho igo a Riv ve Ta aku ba B Sia rka To sa Bu L ar Tu Poverty in coastal and freshwater 3.1.  Lakes/river counties Coastal counties counties Source: Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS) Despite having valuable aquatic resources, 2015/16. Note: Poverty is defined as households below the national Kenya’s coastal and freshwater counties poverty line based on consumption expenditure (the monthly continue to struggle with poverty, and poverty line for rural location is KSh3252.735 and that of urban those involved in fishing and aquaculture location is KSh5995.902). 9 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 FIGURE 3.2: POVERTY BY EMPLOYMENT Labor market profile of workers 3.2.  SECTOR in coastal and freshwater counties Total 36 The high underutilization rate of the Other services 36 working-age population—which includes the Education health social security 15 Professional administrative services 25 underemployed and those Not in Education, ICT Finance real estate 14 Employment or Training (NEET)—contributes Transport accommodation 29 Trade 26 to high poverty levels.13 The labor force Construction 40 participation rate declined from 74 percent in 2016 Utilities 23 Manufacturing 36 to 69 percent in 2019, and although underutilization Mining 43 improved in 2019, it remains significantly high at Fishing and aquaculture 51 39 percent (Figure 3.3). The underutilization problem Agriculture 44 varies by county, however, with several lake/river 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 and coastal counties having higher underutilization Source: Kenya Integrated Household Budget Survey (KIHBS) compared to the national average. Marsabit has 2015/16. the highest rate at 69 percent and Bomet has the Note: Poverty is defined as households below the national poverty line based on consumption expenditure (the monthly lowest rate at 10 percent. The top three counties poverty line for rural location is KSh3252.735 and that of urban with the highest labor underutilization rates include location is KSh5995.902). Marsabit, a freshwater county, as well as Mombasa and Lamu, two coastal counties. FIGURE 3.3: LABOR UNDERUTILIZATION RATE BY COUNTY, KCHS 2019 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ke mbu W ara eru rk u Kil a ita Ri e Gambu G ga ha a Ka Na ga 9 S it B i M Kit o an ui ns Wa i N os Kir gomia iny a da a o M richo Kis iaya T K mu Kia zoia am a Na ana Nadera Ka rissa Bu iki i Ny am ndi Vi rua To Bo isii l 2 et -N jir E ira go Sa Pok t mb ot M Narou Ho Mig ru M Bu ay ba a Ta ver Isi ifi Ua ur iado M ar u ak k rin i La sa ma or Tra irob La yer Ba uen t e Ta ana wal t ac ak an eg Ny hig om si Tu um ol ur Th ish 01 b n p ta m es kw ve ku k sin an a sa K M j ar k M M ey Lakes/river counties Coastal counties Elg Underemployed NEET Source: KCHIS 2019 13 Underemployment is defined as whether the individual would work more hours if they had the opportunity (either in same job or another job in addition to their current job). NEET is defined as the share of people not in employment, education or training. Our analysis is conducted for the working age population defined as those aged 15-64. 10 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Women and youth are worse off in the labor FIGURE 3.5: MALE LABOR UNDERUTILIZATION market. The labor force participation rate for RATE (COASTAL VERSUS LAKE/RIVER COUNTIES), 2019 women in 2019 is lower at 67 percent compared to men at 72 percent, and the underutilization rate 70 is higher at 41 percent for women compared to 60 50 men at 37 percent. In both fresh water and coastal 40 counties, being NEET is more common among 30 20 women than men, and underemployment is more 10 common among men than women (Figure 3.4 and 0 3.5). Youth are also worse off: although they have Sia it Kis ya T u mu N na ma ru Bu y M ia om ri Kw a ale T u na ta er To i l if ta Ba s ita m b M go s Kil Riv T a ave Ho aku ba rka sa u Ta La i ar M the lowest underutilization rate with almost half of them in school (47 percent), those who join the Lakes/river counties Coastal counties Underemployed NEET labor force face a higher unemployment rate at 13  percent compared to the national average of Source: KCHS 2019 5 percent. Kenyans generally rely on poor quality, FIGURE 3.4: WOMEN LABOR low-productivity jobs. Although the proportion UNDERUTILIZATION RATE (COASTAL VERSUS of Kenyans who rely on low-productivity jobs LAKE/RIVER COUNTIES), 2019 decreased between 2015 and 2019, the country 100 continues to face a job-quality challenge 80 (Figure  3.6).14 Agriculture (which includes fishing 60 and aquaculture) and trade continue to absorb the 40 most workers, with a combined share of about 61 20 percent, but most of these jobs are low-productivity 0 and low-earning. At the county level, Nyandarua, West Pokot, and Kisii are the top three counties Tu abit na Kis ya Na mu M ru ma ri Bu y sia om u sa Ta na R le Ta r ta To i l if ta ita ive Ba M Lam Ho igo Ta a Kil ve ku ba Sia rka w u s K ar M with the highest share (over 70  percent) of low Lakes/river counties Coastal counties productivity jobs in the agriculture and trade Underemployed NEET sectors, while Nairobi, Mombasa, and Kajiado reported the lowest share at 29 percent, 30 percent, Source: KCHS 2019 and 44 percent respectively (see Annex A1). The most productive sectors—such as Information and 14 Agriculture reduced by about 10 percentage point between 2015 and 2019. 11 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Communications Technology (ICT), finance, and it is important to continue investing in the human real estate —and the labor-intensive sectors—such capital of young Kenyans to prepare them for as social service—could absorb more workers, so higher-quality jobs. FIGURE 3.6: JOBS GROWTH IN LOW AND HIGH PRODUCTIVE SECTORS, 2015 - 2019 1.5 Finance, real estate 1.0 Relative productivity in 2019 ICT Professional, admin, services 0.5 Manufacturing Mining Education, health, Utilities and construction social security 0 Transport Accommodation Trade Agriculture –0.5 Other services –1.0 –4.0 –3.0 –2.0 –1.0 0 1.0 2.0 3.0 Change in employment share (2015/16–2019) Source: World Bank, 202315 FIGURE 3.7: EDUCATION LEVEL OF Low education levels are associated with WORKING-AGE POPULATION employment in less productive activities. While education improved between 2015/16 and 2019 9 39 37 16 2019 (those with less than secondary education reduced by 9 percentage points), almost half of 2015/16 10 47 40 4 the working-age population in 2019 do not have 0 20 40 60 80 100 secondary education (47 percent) (Figure 3.7). No education Primary education All  the coastal counties (excluding Mombasa) Secondary education Post-secondary education reported a much larger proportion of people with less than secondary education compared Source: KCHS 2019, KIHBS 2015/16 to the country’s average, with Tana River at 15 Relative productivity is measured as the log of sectoral labor productivity divided by aggregate labor productivity. The size of the bubble represents the total employment of the sector in 2019. Agriculture includes crop and animal production, hunting and related service activities, forestry and logging, and fishing and aquaculture. 12 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 74  percent, Kwale 73 percent, Kilifi 73 percent, FIGURE 3.9: YOUTH EDUCATION (COASTAL Lamu 61  percent, and Taita Taveta 55 percent AND LAKE/RIVER COUNTIES) (See Annex A2).16 Total Nakuru Turkana On a positive note, education has improved Marsabit Migori for younger cohorts. Conditional on new Homa Bay opportunities being created in high-productive Kisumu Siaya sectors, there is hope for Kenya’s future and the Busia Taita Taveta opportunity for youth to access higher-quality Lamu jobs. At the national level, youth aged 15-25 are Tana River Kilifi more likely to have at least a secondary education Kwale Mombasa than those aged 55-64 (Figure 3.8). However, in 0 20 40 60 80 100 several coastal and lake regions, we observe more No education Primary education youth with less than primary education compared Secondary education Post-secondary education to the national average (Figure 3.9). Labor market profile of fishing 3.3.  FIGURE 3.8: EDUCATION BY AGE GROUP and aquaculture workers 100 90 Fishing and aquaculture represent small 80 but important sources of employment and 70 60 livelihoods in Kenya. Kenya’s fishing and 50 aquaculture activities are strategically important 40 30 due to the sector’s significance in supporting the 20 local communities. In coastal areas, small-scale 10 0 fishing is particularly vital, providing both income 15–25 25–35 35–45 45–55 55–64 and nutrient-rich food, especially given the recent No education Primary education Secondary education Post-secondary education drop in coastal tourists owing to security concerns and COVID-related restrictions. As Table  3.1 Source: KCHS, 2019 illustrates, fishing and aquaculture directly employs 16 Kenya education curriculum was reformed to the new system (2-6-3-3-3) in 2017. However, since most of the current working age population adopted the previous education curriculum, we employ the old curriculum (8-4-4) to categorize the educational variable. We use information on the highest level of education attained. Those who have completed only kindergarten are considered to have no education; standard/grades 1 through 8 are considered to have primary education; forms 1 through 4 (grade 9 through 12) are considered to have completed secondary education. Diploma and above is classified as post-secondary education. 13 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 approximately 68,500 individuals. While this makes providers of associated services (Setlur, 2020). up only about 0.4 percent of the total employed Notably, the Lake Victoria region employs nearly population in Kenya, the number of people half of Kenya’s fishing and aquaculture workers, working in pre-harvest activities of fishing, fish with approximately 39,000 (0.22 percent) people, processing, and trading is much larger, estimated while the coastal regions employ only about 18,000 at over two million Kenyans. This includes traders, people (0.10 percent), accounting for roughly input suppliers, merchants of fishing gear, and one-quarter of total fisheries sector employment. TABLE 3.1: FISHING AND AQUACULTURE EMPLOYMENT Counties Fishing as primary job Share of total employment Coastal Counties Kilifi 2,018 (0.01%) Kwale 7,202 (0.04%) Lamu 3,431 (0.02%) Taita Taveta 165 (0.00%) Tana River 720 (0.00%) Mombasa 5,021 (0.03%) Lake Turkana Turkana 9,871 (0.06%) Marsabit 1,482 (0.01%) Lake Victoria Busia 7,111 (0.04%) Homabay 9,470 (0.05%) Kisumu 2,875 (0.02%) Migori 4,635 (0.03%) Siaya 14,564 (0.08%) Other counties with lake/rivers Nakuru 822 (0.00%) Coastal counties 18,557 (0.10%) Counties with major river/lake 50,830 (0.29%) Other counties 1,369 (0.01%) Total fisheries 68,563 (0.39%) TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 17,756,803 Source: KCHS 2019. Percent indicates share of those employed in fishing as primary job out of total employed in the county (defined as selecting either wage employment, self-employment, unpaid family member, apprentice, or other). The KCHS 2019 data reported do not fully capture informal fisheries workers, especially women, due to limits in survey coverage, estimates may differ from other data sources. 14 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Most fishing and aquaculture activities are FIGURE 3.11: PRODUCTION USES AMONG THE small-scale, with a high proportion of juvenile SELF-EMPLOYED, 2019 (immature) fish catches . The majority of workers engaged in fishing and aquaculture activities are Agriculture 6 82 10 2 self-employed/own-account workers (36 percent), which reflects the predominantly small-scale Fishing and 1 20 59 20 nature of the sector (Figure 3.10). Furthermore, aquaculture over three-quarters of those involved in marine 0 20 40 60 80 100 and inland fishing activities, as well as aquaculture Only for sale Mainly for sale (79 percent), catch fish mainly or exclusively for Mainly for family use Only for family use household consumption (Figure 3.11), highlighting the subsistence nature of many workers in this Men dominate fishing and aquaculture jobs, sector. Small-scale fishers who fish primarily for especially when involving skilled fishing subsistence account for around 80 percent of total activities. Those employed in fishing and production (Kimani, et al., 2018). With juvenile aquaculture sector are disproportionately males fish as the dominant catch (of up to 60 percent), at 90 percent, and the majority (68 percent) are small-scale fishers are unable to generate adequate between ages of 25 and 45 (see Annex A3). Most monetary or nutritional value from their catches, men are skilled workers, while women are split while at the same time jeopardizing the natural between skilled fisheries activities and craft (see regeneration of fish stocks (Kimani, et al., 2018). Annex A4 for gender distribution) 17. FIGURE 3.10: EMPLOYMENT TYPE, 2019 The low income derived from fishing results in low economies of scale. The fishing and Country 55 36 aquaculture sector is unable to meet the demand of the country’s growing population and faces Fishing and 29 69 aquaculture intense import competition. Since 2008, Kenya’s per capita fish consumption has increased from 2 Agriculture 41 40 to 4.5 kilograms per year, with current fish demand 0 20 40 60 80 100 estimated at approximately 800,000 metric tons Wage employed Employer Own account compared to a national production value of only Contributing family worker Apprentice Other about 150,000 metric tons (FAO, 2016; Aura, Source: KCHS 2019. et al., 2018; Njiru, et al., 2021). To meet current Note: Estimates are reported for only self-employed workers in figure 3.2.3 domestic demand, Kenya must increase production 17 See ILO occupational classification for details on skilled fisheries workers and other occupational classification. 15 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 by more than 600,000 metric tons of fish per year; bottom 30 percent compared to the agricultural but in the long term, the country will likely need sector at 43 percent and the nonagricultural sector more than a million metric tons annually (Njiru, at 27 percent (Figure 3.14). et al., 2021). The fishing and aquaculture sector is unable to meet this growing demand due to FIGURE 3.12: EDUCATIONAL LEVEL (FISHING various issues, including limited fishing technology AND AQUACULTURE VERSUS OTHER for deep-water and semi-industrial and industrial SECTORS) fisheries, as well as the declining fish stocks. While investing in aquaculture could help bridge this gap, Non- agriculture the growing fish deficit has resulted in increased fish imports, mainly from Asian countries, notably Agriculture China. Imported fish, predominantly aquaculture- Fishing and produced tilapia, which is also cultivated and aquaculture caught in Kenya, is available at a lower cost than 0 20 40 60 80 100 local products. Evidence from Mombasa’s Likoni No education Primary education fish market indicates that imported mackerel and Secondary education Post-secondary education tilapia are priced as low as $2 per kilogram, in Source: KIHBS 2015/16 contrast to locally caught fish such as red snapper, which sells for $5 per kilogram (Njunge, 2019). FIGURE 3.13: HOUSEHOLD ACCESS TO Fishing and aquaculture workers rank lower EDUCATION LOAN ASSISTANCE across several development indicators Non- compared to other Kenyan sectors. They 22% agriculture have the lowest level of education compared to other sectors but also have the least access Agriculture 20% to educational loan assistance (Figure 3.12 and Fishing and 13% 3.13). At the same time, nearly half of fishing and aquaculture aquaculture workers (48 percent) rank among the 0 5 10 15 20 25 16 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 FIGURE 3.14: MONTHLY PER ADULT EQUIVALENT TOTAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE (DECILE) Non- 9 9 9 9 10 9 11 10 11 12 agriculture Agriculture 14 15 14 13 12 11 8 7 4 2 Fishing and 14 11 22 8 7 7 10 6 9 7 aquaculture 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 1st decile 2nd decile 3rd decile 4th decile 5th decile 6th decile 7th decile 8th decile 9th decile 10th decile Source: KIHBS 2015/16. Note: Total consumption expenditure (decile) is ranked from poorest (1) to richest (10) Fishing and aquaculture workers are FIGURE 3.15: INCIDENCE OF INJURY AND vulnerable in Kenya: they work longer hours, ACCESS TO HEALTH CARE FACILITIES (FISHING AND AQUACULTURE VERSUS earn less money, and have less access to social OTHER SECTORS) protection than workers in other sectors. They account for the highest proportion of individuals 12 Covered by health 2 who fall ill compared to other sectors, but have insurance 19 the lowest level of access to health care providers Consult health 83 and health insurance (Figure 3.15). 18 A larger provider on 73 related illness 83 proportion also spend more than 50 hours a week 21 Injured/sick during on their jobs (about 45 percent) compared to the 25 the last 4 weeks 18 non-agricultural sector (42 percent), and agricultural 0 20 40 60 80 100 sector (12 percent) (Figure 3.16). At the same time, Agriculture Fishery sector Working population their average monthly earning is significantly lower than the non-agriculture sector (Figure 3.17). Fishing Source: KCHS 2019 (figure 3.3.6), KIHBS 2015/16 (figure 3.3.7) and aquaculture wage workers also have marginally less access to social protection (Figure 3.18).19 18 Enrolment into Kenya’s insurance is not a random process. NHIF Enrollment is mandatory for those in civil service and other formal employment, while those in the informal sector voluntary opt for NHIF coverage Information gaps, common misconceptions about the value of insurance and high indirect costs of drugs can contribute to the low level of uptake of health insurance among those in the informal sector (including those in fishing and aquaculture). 19 The number of wage workers (specifically) in the fishing and aquaculture sector in the datasets are too small to reliably provide comparative descriptive statistics. 17 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 FIGURE 3.16: HOURS WORKED PER WEEK Climate Change threats to 3.4.  Kenya’s fisheries workers20 Non- 6 30 22 42 agriculture Climate change will make fisheries workers Agriculture 24 48 16 12 more vulnerable. Fisheries workers are particularly vulnerable due to their low standard of Fishing and 6 26 23 45 living and high dependency on natural resources aquaculture 0 20 40 60 80 100 that are increasingly at risk. Natural resources have >20 21–40 41–50 >50 hours historically provided a pathway out of poverty, contributed to food security, and served as an economic engine for coastal communities. Building FIGURE 3.17: AVERAGE MONTHLY EARNINGS on existing literature, we consider three main DISTRIBUTION (IN KSH) channels through which climate change threatens fisheries workers including: (i) lower productivity Non- 19,771 agriculture resulting from reduced fish catch; (ii) reduced working hours resulting from drier weather Agriculture 7,022 patterns and heat waves; and (iii) accelerated Fishing and coastal erosion that may change fishing practices 7,544 aquaculture and force fishers to seek alternative livelihoods. 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 (i) Lower productivity resulting from Source: KCHS, 2019. reduced fish catch. Wilson, et al., (2021) investigated the effects of climate change FIGURE 3.18: ACCESS TO SOCIAL PROTECTION on fish catch and predicted significant reductions in average fish biomass over the Non- next century in Kenya, with median reductions 45 agriculture in fish species biomass ranging from 63 to 76 Agriculture 23 percent. Drought has far-reaching, short and long-term consequences for ocean ecosystems Fishing and 13 and species. In the short term, drought can aquaculture 0 10 20 30 40 50 substantially reduce in-stream flow, adversely affecting the quality and availability of habitats 20 The section focuses on fisheries sector workers encompasses both marine and freshwater lakes. It involves every aspect of the fisheries value chain. This includes fishing itself and all related activities pre and post harvesting, such as processing, trading, marketing, net mending, and boat building. 18 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 for freshwater organisms, ultimately resulting translates into lost earnings. Further, recent in a long-term decline in fish stock. A decrease climate projections (see Dwumfour, et al., in fish catch reduce fisheries sector productivity 2019) suggest a significant increase in the as fishers struggle to meet the demand of frequency and/or magnitude of extreme the country’s growing population. Further, a weather conditions, such as cyclones, storms, cascading effect is likely to affect downstream floods and sea level rise. Extreme weather fisheries value chain activities. For instance, events increase risks to the lives of fishermen, in in Turkana—the largest Kenyan northwest addition to the environment and the fish stock. county, and one of the hottest and driest— Climate change is already reducing fish stocks lakeside communities can no longer sustain abundance and availability due to migration themselves through fishing, while pastoralists away from affected areas. The resulting harm are losing livestock. to the broader ecosystem will likely further threaten food security and livelihoods. This will (ii) Reduced working hours resulting from have implications on the fisheries value chain drier weather. While much of Kenya’s and other sectors that rely on natural resources, population will feel the effects of higher as well as for workers and their households who temperatures in one way or another, the most rely on fisheries catch to meet daily nutritional vulnerable populations who rely on natural needs and a sustainable way of life. resources for a living and have limited capacity to respond will be more affected. Jobs that require (iii) Accelerated coastal erosion. For small-scale workers to spend a significant amount of time fishing communities, coastal erosion and outdoors will bear the brunt of the negative sea-level rise may cause the disappearance effects. Increased frequency of extreme heat of infrastructure linked to their activities and longer heat waves undermine worker (including canoes and fishing gears) and even performance and productivity. For example, the destruction of their homes, often located following recent analysis done for the World on the edge of the coast. Extreme events such Bank Kenya Country Climate and Development as floods and storms can harm infrastructure, Reports (CCDR), the consensus among various ranging from landing sites to post-harvest climate models is that the contribution of facilities (such as fish processing sites and agriculture to overall GDP will decline in the local market) and transportation routes. absence of any climate-mitigation actions. Most Communities in low-lying areas are particularly fisheries workers would be affected, and since vulnerable. Risk exposure reduces incentives to they are small-scale and their compensation is invest in production systems, which may lead based on output, reduced labor productivity to individuals seeking alternative job options. 19 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Opportunities to Connect 4.  out of a total population of 55 million, 33 million Social Protection and Labor of whom are estimated to live under the poverty Interventions with Fisheries line. However, expenditures on social protection Management and jobs are low for a lower middle-income country, and far below the average of an upper The sustainability of Kenya’s ecosystems, middle-income country, which Kenya aspires to coupled with the creation of more and better become. This means that access for most Kenyans jobs for its rapidly expanding population, to social protection and jobs programs is limited. represent major challenges Kenya faces in Moreover, as the majority of those working in the several sectors, including fisheries. Poverty, fishing and aquaculture sector work informally, population growth, and inability to effectively they do not have access to any form of social manage and regulate fishing are major drivers protection or insurance, mostly available for formal of overexploitation of fishing and other natural sector workers. To respond to this challenge, resources in Kenya. Active labor market policies social protection and insurance policies need to (ALMPs) and social protection systems need consider those informally employed—including in strengthening and expansion to help the poorest the fisheries sector. This will allow for savings and/ and most vulnerable households survive while or investments to diversify income sources away necessary management and regulation of fishing from climate-threatened sectors like fisheries. The activities is improved. recently approved National Youth Opportunities Towards Advancement (NYOTA) project introduces The social protection system can play a critical an insurance scheme for informal workers. This is role in mitigating short and medium-term the first systematic attempt to design a product that challenges to improving fisheries responds to specific challenges of [young] informal management. In many ways, Kenya has been a workers. After piloting it under NYOTA, the Kenya pioneer of social protection in East Africa, being National Social Security Fund (NSSF) intends to an early adopter of social assistance programs.21 expand the scheme to the public. In addition, The social protection system in Kenya has other forms of social assistance can help protect expanded its coverage, especially in terms of cash households during the transition, to address the transfer programs, which have increased almost problem of reduced income. Support for fishers five times in coverage between 2012 and 2020, adapting to climate change can also encompass when it reached 1.19 million direct beneficiaries anticipatory social protection initiatives, such as 21 Including the Cash Transfer for Orphans and Vulnerable Children (CT-OVC) in 2004; the Older Persons Cash Transfer (OPCT) in 2007; the Hunger Safety Net Programme (HSNP) in 2008; and Cash Transfer for Persons with Severe Disabilities in 2010. 20 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 early warning systems (EWS); offering information These infrastructure developments should on long-term ecosystem changes due to climate prioritize climate resilience to safeguard against change; and assisting with investments in climate- environmental challenges. Fostering collaboration resilient fishing technologies, including access to and partnerships between the government, credit facilities and financial support. To respond private sector entities, and cooperatives can to shocks, Kenya’s main social protection program, further enhance value chain development. Such Inua Jamii, will also need to reach the informal collaboration can facilitate access to financing, sector in urban areas, in addition to the rural poor technology, and market information, while it currently covers. Ongoing efforts to harmonize promoting establishment of sustainable and a targeting methodology and enhance the single equitable value chains. Government can also registry (ESR) to function as a social registry aim to establish partnerships with industry stakeholders, provide a unified dataset of poor and vulnerable including fishing companies and trade associations, households across the country. The ESR will facilitate to advocate for labor standards, skills development, quick and transparent identification of vulnerable and job creation within the sector. Capacity building populations following a shock. Integrating data programs and training for all individuals involved on climate shocks and climate vulnerability in the in the value chain—including fishers, processors, targeting criteria could help make social protection marketers, and regulators—can significantly programs more responsive and effective in reaching enhance participants’ expertise and knowledge the most threatened households. related to sustainable value chain development and management. This holistic approach to value chain The government can promote growth of good development can drive growth and sustainability fisheries jobs by encouraging private-sector in the fisheries sector and promote improved investment. In combination with improved economic and social outcomes. fisheries management and labor market policies, private investment in the fisheries sector can Because overfishing is already prominent in generate more and higher-quality jobs in both pre Kenya, incentives to adopt sustainable fishing and post-harvest stages, encompassing activities practices need to accompany job-creation such as processing, storage infrastructure, cold initiatives.  Adhering to international quality storage facilities, and transportation infrastructure. standards and certifications, such as the Marine Moreover, investments in essential infrastructure— Stewardship Council (MSC) certification, can such as ports, harbors, and markets—can enhance the value of fish products from the significantly reduce costs related to transportation, country; but reaching such standards is often storage, and distribution of fish products, while beyond the reach of small-scale fishers due to enhancing overall efficiency and product quality. associated costs. A policy option could involve 21 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 government subsidies for the certification process new opportunities for job creation.  For instance, for small-scale fishers.22 Introducing a system that in addition to restricting fishing activities in incentivizes registration and licensing for artisanal protected areas to support fish reproduction, other fishers, gleaners, traders, and processors can help labor-intensive initiatives—such as the restoration remove bad actors from the value chain, incentivize of mangroves, seagrass beds, and dune vegetation formalization, and preserve fishing resources for (also called nature-based solutions)—can be more productive activities. Furthermore, pilots leveraged to provide immediate livelihood support could be established to test innovative practices and engage local communities.24 As an illustrative that have succeeded in other countries in the example, in 2015 Kenya partnered with the United region to incentivize best practices. For example, Nations Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) South Africa’s ABALOBI23 social entrepreneurship on a project to empower small-scale farmers and initiative uses a local cooperative model to connect train them to cultivate seaweed, mussels, oysters, small fishers with global consumers of certified crabs, and milkfish. Although the project concluded sustainable fish. Certification and other incentive in 2017, its benefits continue to manifest through programs that acknowledge fishers and fish seaweed sales. Moreover, the pilot initiative products meeting sustainability standards can facilitated the transition of a self-help group, galvanize sustainable fishing practices, improve Kibuyuni Seaweed Women, into a cooperative market access, command higher prices for certified known as the Kibuyuni Seaweed Farmers products, and ensure better control over maritime Association, now registered as a savings and resources. These measures are essential in credit cooperative. This not only fosters economic combating illegal fishing and preventing resource growth but also underscores the potential for depletion.  community-driven, sustainable initiatives in the Blue Economy. Kenya can leverage on lessons In parallel, help for affected communities learned from this project to expand similar initiatives needs to accompany fishing restrictions in across its coastal communities initially through the support of fish reproduction. Any strategy to expansion of pilots. Furthermore, the country can sustain ocean resources must also capitalize on explore various labor-intensive “Blue Economy” 22 There are several fishery sustainability schemes globally and MSC is one of them. However, its application is mainly in large scale industrial fisheries. MSC are in process of trying to make the scheme more affordable and practical for small scale less valuable fisheries. 23 ABALOBI, meaning “fisher” in the isiXhosa language, is a South African-based global social enterprise with a mission to contribute to thriving, equitable, and sustainable small-scale fishing communities worldwide 24 Between 1986 and 2016, Kenya lost  about  21 percent of its seagrass cover. While the intensity and frequency of seagrass loss varies along the coastline, research conducted by the Kenya Marine and Fisheries Research Institute shows that these losses may, in the long term, affect the dynamics of food webs, especially the fish supported by these meadows, such as parrot fish (Daudi, 2020). 22 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 endeavors to preserve fish stocks and provide for fisheries workers. The government can play immediate, alternative livelihood support. This a pivotal role in supporting small-scale fisheries may require implementation of new public works workers by promoting alternative livelihoods programs and the use of Payments for Ecosystem to reduce their fishing dependence. A crucial Services (PES). For instance, the Mikoko Pamoja strategy involves assessing the skill levels of project in Gazi Bay serves as a successful model fisheries workers and identifying current or of community-driven PES in Kenya. This initiative emerging skills required for transitioning to contributes to the development of nature-based alternative jobs. Some activities within the “Blue solutions that absorb excess carbon dioxide Economy” sectors are labor-intensive and well resulting from the burning of fossil fuels while also suited to absorb many low-skilled workers, such as offering critical support to communities in need of tourism and recreation that involves boat renting economic recovery. They serve as steppingstones and tours and transportation services. However, toward establishment of more comprehensive, certain alternative jobs may demand higher skills, medium-term projects to combat climate change necessitating reskilling, upskilling, and educational while creating jobs. programs. Training programs should be tailored to the specific needs of fisheries sector workers To address Kenya’s overall job quality delivered in a participatory and interactive challenges, complementary policies to foster manner. Thus, local employment agencies will economic diversification and job creation need additional resources to expand training are essential to alleviate poverty and curriculum and implementation. Ultimately, improve ocean resource utilization. ALMPs longer-term development policies that promote could be strengthened to increase coverage for education, innovation, and human capital informal workers, and specifically for those in the accumulation are needed. Such policies include fisheries sector. Education and training programs school curriculum reforms to promote science, focused on sustainable fishing practices, which technology, engineering, and math (STEM) and encompass gear modification and responsible ICT skills, as well as innovation, environmental/ fishing, should be actively promoted and sustainability knowledge, entrepreneurship skills incentivized. These initiatives are essential for and related academic disciplines, mainstream fostering a more sustainable and resilient fisheries problem-solving, and relevant soft skills across sector in Kenya while supporting the well-being all academic disciplines. It is also important and livelihoods of those involved. In parallel, to incorporate non-traditional gender careers diversifying the economy by leveraging other and environmental awareness into education sectors can provide alternative job opportunities curriculums.  23 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Key conclusions, lessons 5.  This includes enhancing Active Labor Market learned, and next steps Programs (ALMPs), including initiatives to stimulate demand in the fisheries value chain and pilot As discussed in Section 4, four key policy synergistic programs. Furthermore, supporting channels exist to enhance Kenyan fisheries community-based management approaches management and promote sustainable and empowering local stakeholders can foster practices: (i) strengthen social protection ownership and stewardship over fisheries resources, systems to mitigate short and medium-term leading to more sustainable long-term outcomes. harm resulting from necessary management and Ultimately, addressing the negative feedback loop regulation improvements for fishing activities; between poverty, overfishing, and sustainability (ii) encourage private-sector investment in fisheries; requires a holistic approach combining social (iii)  incentivize sustainable fishing practices, protection, governance reforms, and sustainable including certifications and registration initiatives; fishing incentives. and (iv) diversify the economy, assess skill levels, and promote alternative livelihoods for fisheries In looking towards next steps, it is important workers. to acknowledge the limitations of this case study. The absence of GPS coordinates hinders Tackling challenges to Kenya’s fisheries more detailed analysis of fishing communities necessitates enhancing the management in close proximity to coasts, lakes, or rivers. and governance of the sector, alongside the Additionally, the analytical section of this study implementation of robust social protection focused solely on fishing and aquaculture workers, systems and targeted labor market programs. not fully capturing post-harvest activities in the Workers in Kenya’s fisheries sector confront fisheries value chain due to data limitations. Next substantial challenges to their livelihoods, stemming steps involve addressing: (i) knowledge gaps at from the overexploitation of fisheries stocks and the intersection of social protection and jobs and the repercussions of climate change. Enhancing fisheries management, and (ii) coordination gaps fisheries sector’s management and governance can between ministries and institutions in charge improve the sector’s sustainability while assisting of these areas. To address the first challenge, the poorest and most vulnerable households to the World Bank will administer a focused, mitigate livelihood threats from management and comprehensive geo-referenced household survey regulatory measures. The negative feedback loops within the fisheries sector. This  survey aims to between poverty, overfishing, and sustainability better understand the fisheries value chain and underscores the need to prioritize coastal and the specific needs of workers, particularly women lake/river counties for social protection resources. and youth, to provide crucial insights for targeted 24 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 policies to address workers’ challenges. To address Affairs. This will include consultations before data coordination gaps, survey work will encourage collection and joint dissemination of findings, more coordination and knowledge exchange joint analytics, such as fiscal and costing exercises, between Kenya’s Ministry of Youth Affairs and to help identify domestic resources to support Ministry of Social Protection and Labor, and the expansion of existing social protection instruments Ministry of Mining, Blue Economy, and Maritime and creation of new ones. Bibliography Aura, C. et al., 2018. Integration of mapping and socio-economic status of cage culture: Towards balancing lake-use and culture fisheries in Lake Victoria, Kenya. Aquaculture Research, 49(1), pp. 532-545. CFFA, 2021. The impacts of climate change on small-scale fishers in Africa, s.l.: CFFA Daudi, L., 2020. Kenya’s coast is losing huge amounts of seagrass. But all isn’t lost. The Conversation, 10 August, p. 1. Dwumfour, E. F., Croxton, S. & Khvostova, S., 2019. Kenya Country Environmental Analysis, Washington, D.C: World Bank Group. FAO, 2016. The state of the world fisheries and aquaculture: Contributing to food security and nutrition for all, Rome: FAO. Government of Kenya, 2017. State of the Coast Report II: Enhancing Integrated Management of Coastal and Marine Resources, Nairobi: National Environment Management Authority (NEMA). GOK, 2022. Kenya population and housing census: Population by County and Subcounty, Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, GOK. Glaesel, H., 2000. State and local resistance to the expansion of two environmentally harmful marine fishing techniques in Kenya. Society & Natural Resources, Volume 13, pp. 321-338. Kenya Ministry of Labour and Social Protection, 2017. Kenya Social Protection Sector Review. Kimani, N. E., Aura, C. M. & Okemwa, G. M., 2018. The Status of Kenya Fisheries: Towards the Sustainable Exploitation of Fisheries Resources for Food Security and Economic development, Mombasa: KMFRI. Le Manach, F., Bach, P., Boistol, L., Robinson, J., and Pauly, D. (2015b). “Artisanal fisheries in the world’s second largest tuna fishing ground — reconstruction of the Seychelles’ marine fisheries catch, 1950–2010,” in  Fisheries Catch Reconstructions in the Western Indian Ocean, 1950-2010, eds F. Le Manach, and D. Pauly (Vancouver: University of British Columbia), 99–109. Macfadyen, G., Huntington, T., Caillart, B., Defaux, V., 2016. “Estimate of Global Sales Values from Tuna FisheriesPhase 1 Report.” 1059–REG/R–01/E. United Kingdom: Poseidon Aquatic Resource Management Ltd. McClanahan, T. R., Glaesel, H., Rubens, J. & Kiambo, R., 1997. The effects of traditional fisheries management on fisheries yields and the coral-reef ecosystems of southern Kenya. Environmental Conservation, Volume 24, pp. 105-120. McClanahan, T. R. & Mangi, S. C., 2001. The effect of closed area and beach seine exclusion on coral reef fish catches. Fisheries Management and Ecology, Volume 8, pp. 107-121. McClanahan, T. R. & Mangi, S. C., 2004. Gear-based management of a tropical artisanal fishery based on species selectivity and capture size. Fisheries Management and Ecology, Volume 11, pp. 51-60. Njiru, J. et al., 2021. Kenya marine fisheries: The next frontier for economic growth? Aquatic Ecosystem Health & Management, 24(1), pp. 97-104. Njunge, J., 2019. Kenyan Fishermen Fight for Livelihoods as Lamu Port Nears Completion. [En ligne] Available at: https://chinadialogueocean.net/en/fisheries/9902-kenyan​ -fishermen-chinese-lamu-port/ [Accès le 14 December 2022]. Onyango, H. et al., 2021. The Lost Coin: Redefining the Economic and Financial Value of Small-Scale Fisheries, The Case of Lake Victoria, Kenya. Social Sciences & Human Open, 4(1). OPHI., 2023. Global MPI Country Briefing 2023: Kenya (Sub-Saharan Africa). Available: https://ophi.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/CB_KEN_2023.pdf [Accessed 19 February 2024]. Overbeeke, F., Shepherd, L., Canac, S. & Grosskopf, A., 2022. Blue Entrepreneurship Scoping Study for Kenya: Unlocking Business Solutions that Benefit People, the Ocean and Climate, Gland: IUCN. Setlur, B., 202. Investing in a blue economy for Kenya’s coastal communities, s.l.: World Bank Blogs: Nasikiliza. Sundaram, R. & Pape, U. J., 2019. Kenya Social Protection and Jobs Programs Public Expenditure Review, Washington DC: World Bank Group. Vierros, M. & De Fontaubert, C., 2017. The Potential of the Blue Economy: Increasing Long-Term Benefits of the Sustainable use of Marine Resources for Small Island Developing States and Coastal Least Developed Countries, Washington DC: World Bank Group. Wilson, R. et al., 2021. Large projected reductions in marine fish biomass for Kenya and Tanzania in the absence of climate mitigation. Ocean & Coastal Management, 215(105921). World Bank, 2016. Transforming Livelihoods Along Kenya’s Coastal Areas. Available: https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/feature/2016/07/11/transforming-livelihoods-along​ -kenyas-coastal-areas [Accessed 25 November 2023]. World Bank, 2022. Jobs and Livelihoods in the Blue Economy: Blue Economy for Resilient Africa Program, Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2023a. Kenya: Jobs Diagnostic, Washington, DC: World Bank Group. World Bank. 2023b. Kenya: Public Expenditure Review, Washington, DC: World Bank Group. World Bank, 2023c. Kenya National Youth Opportunities Towards Advancement Project Appraisal Document. Washington DC: World Bank Group. 25 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 ANNEX A FIGURE A.1: COMPARATIVE WILD FISHERY CATCH AND AQUACULTURE PRODUCTION FOR KENYA IN 2021 13 17 70 Inland capture Marine capture Aquaculture Source: GOK, 2022 FIGURE A2: SECTORIAL SHARE BY COUNTY 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ho Migsia l M a B ri ar ay rka it S na Na iaya Kis uru Ta umu Ta lifi Ta Laeta Riv u M Kw er N mb le W yan asa t P ru ot ey Bomgo ak i ric t Emok bu a ir M aris a ur sa M Vihiga an a Sa ara a m ka TraMa buru Bu -Nz ni ng oia Ka N ma me ri ga i i La nyag Ua kipia Gi ru M Is hu h o s Na do To bi in ii ar andt Na ho Ka mbu ta Kir Kitu oM N e Ke we Kiaako Ba Kis G mir g Th der na m ac iol m o Tu sab Ny Waj ka ye o a ns kue iro es da ok sin Me ita Ki r an s jia Bu o v k r i Elg Lakes/river counties Coastal counties Agriculture Fishing and aquaculture Trade Mining Manufacturing Utilities Construction Transport accommodation ICT finance real estate Professional administrative services Education health social security 26 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 FIGURE A3: EDUCATION LEVEL OF WORKING-AGE POPULATION BY COUNTY, 2019 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Ua Kaj mu ch ira m ru La basa Na bu bi Bo eta N et Ba andi Vih go Ny M ga Tra and eru - a o M ak ia k i Bu erich t ng o Kir Emba i u ran a ga Kis Kisii G o Ny ishu Na kos N ia Kia yeri Ma kan t nd a Ga era Ta mbusa La ri Th iaya Ta akamaka Ta ga na ru Kwver Kil e t P jir Kit t Na ui Bu ok Mi sia Ho Isio u ma lo S ay W W ifi ara uen K we Tu sabi o al ns aru om Munyag sin iad m go p ey M Nzo iro es a m Mo ku ok Sa ris B r ita e i Ma am m rin Ri iki u v a K ar r r Ma Elg No education Primary education Secondary education Post-secondary education Source: KCHS 2019 Note: Counties within the red dotted boxes are coastal counties. Counties within orange dotted boxes are those with a lake/river. FIGURE A4: FISHERIES SECTOR OCCUPATION DISTRIBUTION BY GENDER, 2019 8 5 03 030 0 10 0 0 4 4 5 0 Male Female 38 76 44 Senior officials Professionals Technicians Clerks Services and market sales workers Skilled agricultural Craft workers Machine operators Elementary occupations Source: KCHS, 2019 27 SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | POLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE    JUNE 2024 | No. 38 Blue Social Protection Series: Protecting People, Fish and Food Integrating Social Protection and Jobs with Fisheries Management • Conceptual Framework (May 2022) Country Case Studies (June 2024) • Overview of Country Case Studies • Costa Rica: Exploring alternatives for the economic inclusion of low-income, artisanal fisher communities • Kenya: Supporting sustainability in Kenya’s fisheries through social protection and labor market interventions • Solomon Islands: Opportunities for linking fisheries management and social protection • Sri Lanka: Integrating social protection and economic inclusion with management of Sri Lanka’s coastal fisheries • Viet Nam: Connecting social protection, labor market interventions and fisheries management © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1 (202) 473 1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS The material in this work is subject to copyright. Because The World Bank encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial purposes as long as full attribution to this work is given. Any queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications: The World Bank Group 1818 H Street NW Washington, DC 20433, USA fax: +1 (202) 522 2625 e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org.