Toward Integrated Disaster Risk Management in Vietnam Recommendations Based on the Drought and Saltwater Intrusion Crisis and the Case for Investing in Longer-Term Resilience Toward Integrated Disaster Risk Management in Vietnam Recommendations Based on the Drought and Saltwater Intrusion Crisis and the Case for Investing in Longer-Term Resilience @2017 The World Bank 1818 H Street NW, Washington DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000; Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank, with external contributions. The findings, interpretations and conclusions expressed in this work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank, its Board of Executive Directors, or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. 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C o ntents iii Contents Foreword vii Acknowledgments ix Abbreviations x Overview 1 Key Findings 3 Next Steps: Developing an Action Plan 5 Recommended Actions 16 Support from the World Bank 21 References 22 Chapter 1 Introduction 25 Chapter 2 Context in Vietnam 27 2.1 Socioeconomic Context 27 2.2 Natural Hazards Overview 29 2.3 Climate Change Projections 30 Chapter 3 Background of the 2015–2016 Drought and Saltwater Intrusion 35 3.1 Overview of Impacts and Key Affected Regions 35 3.2 Response to 2015–2016 Drought and SWI Crisis by the Government of Vietnam 41 3.3 Focus on Medium- and Longer-Term Preparedness and Resilience Building 42 Chapter 4 Highlighting Key Challenges in Vietnam 45 4.1 Institutional and Legal Issues 45 4.2 Balancing Structural and Nonstructural Measures 46 4.3 Hydro-meteorological and Environmental Monitoring, Forecasting, and Warning Services 48 4.4 Data and Information for Managing Drought and SWI 49 4.5 Post-Disaster Financing Capacity 50 4.6 Divergence of DRM and CCA in Socioeconomic Development Planning 51 T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M iv C o ntents 4.7 Participatory and Inclusive Approaches 52 4.8 Managing Challenges and Risks of Climate Change 54 4.9 Climate Change and Land Use 56 4.10 Sustainable Water Resource Management 58 Chapter 5 Global Good Practices and Recommendations 59 5.1 Getting the Big Picture Right for Disaster Risk Reduction 60 5.2 Putting Systems in Place for Smarter Disaster Preparedness, Response, and Recovery 66 5.3 Planning and Acting for the Longer Term to Build Resilience 75 5.4 Recommended Actions 94 Support from the World Bank 99 References 100 Appendix Summary of World Bank Portfolio with Resilience-Related Activities 107 Boxes O.1: Mexico’s National Program Against Drought 6 O.2: Transition to Proactive Drought Management Approaches in Brazil 7 O.3: Public-Private Partnership in Agricultural Disaster Insurance in China 10 O.4: Examples of Ongoing Activities In Vietnam to Support Integrated DRM Across Sectors 11 O.5: Restricting Rice Production and Sales as Emergency Response in Thailand 14 O.6: Helping Chinese Farmers Adapt to Climate Change Through Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) 15 5.1: Integrating DRM and CCA Into the SEDP in Tra Vinh Province 62 5.2: Mexico’s National Program Against Drought 63 5.3: Transition to Proactive Drought Management Approaches in Brazil 64 5.4: Access to Centralized Information On Drought in the United States 65 5.5: Building Resilient Livelihoods Through Good Risk Governance, Disaster Risk Monitoring, and Early Warning Alerts to Reduce Risk and Vulnerability 66 5.6: Weather-Based Agricultural Advice for Farmers in India 68 5.7: Public-Private Partnership in Agricultural Disaster Insurance in China 69 5.8: Natural Catastrophe Risk Insurance Schemes 70 T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M C o ntents v 5.9: Adaptive Social Protection Feasibility Assessment for Tra Vinh Province in Mekong Delta 72 5.10: Robust Delivery Systems for Rapid Disaster Response in Pakistan, the Philippines, and Mexico 73 5.11: Simultaneous Support for Disaster Preparedness/Resilience and Livelihoods of Rural Poor Under India’s Guaranteed Part-Time Rural Employment 74 5.12: Water Balance Assessment in Ninh Thuan Province in South Central Vietnam 78 5.13: Restricting Rice Production and Sales as Emergency Response in Thailand 82 5.14: Climate-Smart Villages as an Integrated Community-Based Approach to Resilience 83 5.15: Management of Aquatic Farm Ecosystems in Coastal Regions of Bangladesh 85 5.16: Supporting Sustainable Coffee Production and Rejuvenation in Central Highlands 88 5.17: Fostering Government Partnerships to Build Sustainable Communities 90 5.18: Helping Chinese Farmers Adapt to Climate Change Through Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) 92 5.19: Empowering Women Farmers and Protecting Vulnerable Groups Against Weather Risk Through Index Insurance in Rwanda and Kenya 93 Figures O.1: Drought- and SWI-affected provinces 1 2.1: Annual Expected Losses for Vietnam by peril 30 2.2: Estimated change in number of hot days by the middle of the 21st century and the end of the 21st century compared to the 1980–1999 average 31 2.3: How a good understanding of vulnerability helps improve adaptive capacity 32 3.1: Drought- and SWI-affected provinces 36 3.2: SWI kills freshwater fish and shrimp 37 3.3: Saltwater intrusion as of April 8, 2016 39 3.4: Map of provinces in South Central region affected by extreme drought (Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan) 40 4.1: Technical and financial support are needed for more efficient rainwater harvesting. Lemongrass is a successful alternative to rice 47 4.2: Time absorbed by water collection has increased 53 T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M vi C o ntents 4.3: The disaster management cycle 54 4.4: Climate change increases risks in agriculture 55 4.5: World food price scenario in light of extreme weather events 56 5.1: Layering of risks according to the probability and severity of occurrence creates an enabling environment for better climate risk management 80 5.2: Government-sponsored storage units and fair-price produce markets can strengthen community resilience 80 Tables O.1: Overview of Damage Impact of 2015–2016 Drought and SWI in Eighteen Severely Affected Provinces in Vietnam 5 O.2: Summary of Recommended Actions Based on National and International Experiences to Address Drought and SWI and to Promote Short- and Longer- Term Resilience 19 2.1: Overview of Regional Exposure to Natural Hazards in Vietnam 31 3.1: Overview of Damage Impact of 2015–2016 Drought and SWI in Eighteen Severely Affected Provinces in Vietnam 40 5.1: Summary of Recommended Actions Based on National and International Experiences to Address Drought and SWI and to Promote Short- and Longer- Term Resilience 97 T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M C o ntents v ii Foreword Vietnam’s economic success, initiated by the Đổi Mới reforms in the late 1980s, lifted over 40 million people out of poverty. Lately, however, Vietnam has been facing a new wave of challenges. Adverse impacts of natural hazard shocks and rapid degradation of natural resources threaten its gross domestic product (GDP) and related social development gains. The 2015–2016 drought and saltwater intrusion (SWI) event has had far-reaching socioeconomic effects, including food insecurity, water scarcity, associated health issues, and loss of livestock. It developed into a national crisis, with close to 2 million people affected due to damaged livelihoods and the country seeking international help. Though drought and SWI are cyclical events, the severe impacts in 2015–2016 were exacerbated by the combination of adverse El Niño effects and the complex water resource management challenges in important tributaries of the Mekong River. Given that over 18 percent of GDP comes from the agricultural sector, the crisis revealed an urgent need for the government of Vietnam (GoV) to take immediate and long-term actions to address the critical gaps in disaster preparedness and to adopt a holistic and integrated approach toward a resilient future for people and their livelihoods. Climate change is real and is having broad impacts across the world. Climate change projections draw a grim picture of Vietnam’s climate vulnerability in the coming decades. A transformation of different sectors—including agriculture, water resource management, energy, fisheries, forestry, and infrastructure—is needed to counter climate threats and enhance Vietnam’s adaptive capacity. To improve disaster preparedness and build longer-term resilience, Vietnam should act now to adapt to changing climate. As in many countries, Vietnam’s risk and vulnerability are intensified by unplanned urban development, inappropriate land use, and ecosystem degradation. Yet it is still possible for the country to correct course if its policy makers and communities take action. This report takes a deeper look at the drought and SWI crisis faced by Vietnam, identifies the gaps across key sectors, and recommends the principal short- and longer-term actions needed for integrated disaster risk management. The recommendations are based on global experiences in good governance with intersectoral coordination in disaster forecast and early warning, and in community empowerment in water resource management and agricultural production. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M v iii C o ntents Several of the measures proposed by the GoV to strengthen critical infrastructure and to build capacity for greater climate resilience are already part of the World Bank’s active portfolio. With the Bank’s financial and technical support to the GoV in implementing and adopting the identified measures, the country will be better prepared to sustain its growth in the face of increasing climate risks. The Bank has substantial experience in helping to build resilience of communities through sustainable development of agriculture and water resources, disaster risk management, and climate change adaptation. The Bank aims to support Vietnam’s recovery efforts, including its efforts to increase resilience by adopting longer-term vulnerability reduction measures. These challenges are not unique to Vietnam, and are being experienced by other developing countries as well. In view of this, this report is highly relevant and provides timely recommendations for both Vietnam and other countries in the fast-evolving climate change context. Ousmane Dione Country Director for Vietnam East Asia and Pacific Region The World Bank T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M A ckn o wledgments ix Acknowledgments This report was prepared by a team led by Abigail Baca and Dzung Huy Nguyen, and comprising Jitendra Srivastava, Mamatha Hanumappa, Ian Wilderspin, Ngo Cong Chinh, Yann Kerblat, and Brendan Chia. The team recognizes and appreciates the substantive sectoral inputs provided by Anjali Acharya, Alwaleed Fareed Alatabani, Thomas Vaughan Bowen, Binh Thang Cao, Thi Ba Chu, Gustavo E. Diaz, Puja Vasudeva Dutta, Nathan Lee Engle, Franz Gerner, Hoa Thi Hoang, Jolanta Kryspin-Watson, Hung Duy Le, Iain Menzies, Phuong Thu Nguyen, Cuong Hung Pham, Madhu Raghunath, Natalia Limones Rodriguez, Son Thanh Vo, and Thu Hang Vu. Valuable feedback was provided by peer reviewers William Sutton and Doekle Wielinga. The report was edited by Anne Himmelfarb and designed by Lauren Kaley Johnson. It was prepared under the oversight and guidance of Abhas K. Jha, Nathan M. Belete, and Iain G. Shuker. The team would like to extend its gratitude to Victoria Kwakwa, Ousmane Dione, and Achim Fock for their valuable insights and support. The report has greatly benefited from the discussions and feedback kindly provided by representatives from the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development, Ministry of Planning and Investment, and Ministry of Finance, as well as the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR) in Vietnam. Financial support provided by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) is gratefully acknowledged. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M x A bbre v iati o ns Abbreviations ACRE Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise (formerly Kilimo Salama) ADB Asian Development Bank AEL Annual Expected Loss ASA Advisory Services and Analytics ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations ASP adaptive social protection AWD alternate wetting and drying CAD Comprehensive Agriculture Development CAMET Centre for Agricultural Meteorology CBDRM community-based disaster risk management CCA climate change adaptation CCAFS Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security CCNDPC Central Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control CCT conditional cash transfer CGIAR Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research CONAGUA National Water Commission (Mexico) CPEIR Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review CPMU Central Project Management Unit CIMMYT International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center CSV climate-smart village T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M A bbre v iati o ns xi CSA climate-smart agriculture CTA Technical Centre for Agricultural and Rural Cooperation DARD Department of Agriculture and Rural Development DoNRE Department of Natural Resources and Environment DPI Department of Planning and Investment DRF disaster reserve fund DRM disaster risk management DSR direct-seeded rice FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations GAP good agricultural practices GDP gross domestic product GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GHA Greater Horn of Africa GIIF Global Index Insurance Facility GoV government of Vietnam GWP Global Water Partnership ha hectare(s) HOA Horn of Africa IAAS Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service IAIL Irrigated Agriculture Intensification Loan Project IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICAR Indian Council of Agricultural Research ICEM International Centre for Environment Management ICPAC IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre ICT Information and communication technology T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M x ii A bbre v iati o ns IDA International Development Association IDDRSI Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative IFAD International Fund for Agricultural Development IGAD Intergovernmental Authority on Development IISD International Institute for Sustainable Development IMHEN Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology, and Environment ISP inter-sectoral spatial planning MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development MoLISA Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs MoNRE Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment MPI Ministry of Planning and Investment MT metric ton(s) MY marketing year NAWAPI National Center for Water Resources Planning and Investigation NCHMF National Centre for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting NDC Nationally Determined Contribution NGO nongovernmental organization NIDIS National Integrated Drought Information System NTP-NRD National Target Programs on Rural Development NTP-RCC National Target Programs to Respond to Climate Change NTP-SPR National Target Programs on Sustainable Poverty Reduction PET Temporary Employment Program PMPMS Prevention and Mitigation Measures for Drought Programmes PPC Provincial People’s Committee PRONACOSE National Program Against Drought T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M A bbre v iati o ns x iii SASSP Social Assistance Strengthening Project SEDP Socio-economic Development Plan SOCAD State Office of Comprehensive Agricultural Development SRI system of rice intensification SSNM site-specific nutrient management SWI saltwater intrusion UNDP United Nations Development Programme UNICEF United Nations Children’s Fund UN United Nations USAID United States Agency for International Development VnSAT Vietnam Sustainable Agriculture Transformation Project WFP World Food Program WMO World Meteorological Organization WPP Water Partnership Program WUA Water User Association WUC Water User Cooperative Currency: Vietnamese dong (VND) T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M xiv A bbre v iati o ns T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M Overview Vietnam is one of the most hazard- FIGURE O.1: Drought- and SWI-affected provinces prone countries in the East Asia and Pacific region, with droughts, severe storms, and flooding causing substantial economic and human losses. Over the LAO THAILAND past two decades, disasters in Vietnam P.D.R. have caused more than 13,000 deaths Kon Tum as well as property damage in excess of Binh Dinh US$6.4 billion. 1 Climate change is Gia Lai projected to increase the impact of disasters, especially the timing, Phu Yen frequency, severity, and intensity of Dak Lak hydro-meteorological events. Vietnam’s CAMBODIA Khanh Dak Nong Hoa 2015–2016 drought and associated saltwater intrusion (SWI) offer a preview Binh Phuoc Lam Dong Ninh Thuan Tay of what could become the new normal, Ninh Binh Thuan and make clear the need to take action to ensure the country’s economic and Long An Tien Giang societal well-being. According to Ben Vinh lta Tre the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Kien Hau Long Tra De Giang Giang Vinh DROUGHT AFFECTED PROVINCES Development (MARD), 18 provinces Soc ng o SEVERELY AFFECTED PROVINCES Bac Trang ek were severely affected (figure O.1, table Lieu M SALTWATER INTRUSION AFFECTED PROVINCES Ca Mau O.1), resulting in direct economic losses of VND 15,032 billion (about US$674 IBRD 43082 | SEPTEMBER 2017 million), representing 0.35 percent of Sources: UN and GoV 2016; World Bank. national GDP and resulting in negative The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on agricultural growth for the first time in any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or decades.2 acceptance of such boundaries. 1 World Bank 2010. 2 UN and GoV 2016. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 1 2 OV E R V I E W The drought and SWI may make it harder for Vietnam to meet its targets under the Socio-economic Development Plan (SEDP) 2016–2020. These targets include a gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate of 6.5–7.0 percent a year, and a reduction in the share of poor households by an average of 1.0–1.5 percent a year. The impact of adverse climate conditions on the economy is already evident: in the first half of 2016, GDP growth was recorded at 5.5 percent3, much lower than the 6.5 percent average growth in 2015. The World Bank lowered its 2016 growth projections to 6.2 percent, down from earlier estimates of 6.5 percent. The average GDP growth was recorded at 6.2 percent for 2016,4 below the government’s 6.7 percent target. Like past floods and typhoons, the prolonged drought and SWI of 2015–2016 have hurt people’s livelihoods and assets, making it difficult for affected households to bounce back and recover. Although disasters do not discriminate, poor and near-poor households are often more exposed to and disproportionately affected by the impacts of disasters. Other disproportionately affected groups include women and girls, who are typically responsible for household water gathering, and ethnic minorities located in the drought-stricken provinces of the Central Highlands. Such impacts underscore the importance of efforts that target the most vulnerable and that promote inclusive planning and implementation at the local level. The serious socioeconomic and environmental effects of the 2015–2016 drought and SWI in Vietnam are due to both adverse climate conditions associated with El Niño and gaps in the capacity of the government and communities to manage the impact of those conditions. Although many good practices have been initiated in programs and policies across the country, the current situation shows that more investment is needed to meet the growing challenges arising from climate change and from increasing disaster risks. 3 See Eckardt et al. (2016). 4 AEC News Today, “2016 Vietnam GDP Grows 6.2%,”January 15, 2017, https://aecnewstoday.com/2017/ vietnams-economy-grows-6-2-in-2016/. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W 3 TABLE O.1: Overview of Damage Impact of 2015–2016 Drought and SWI in Eighteen Severely Affected Provinces in Vietnam Production area affected (ha) Number of Total Number of households Number economic severely lacking access of Region loss affected Rice Crop Aquaculture to water for livestock (billion provinces consumption lost VND) and daily use National 18 243,762 168,064 69,008 457,796 — 15,023 3 South Central (Ninh Thuan, 10,776 15,000 — 43,482 5,126 1,457 Coast Binh Thuan, & Khanh Hoa) 5 Central (Kon Tum, Gia 17,541 141,756 — 72,060 496 6,004 Highlands Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong, & Lam Dong) 10 out of 13 (Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Mekong Tre, Tra Vinh, Delta Vinh Long, Soc 215,445 — 68,916 342,254 933 7,517 Trang, Hau Giang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau, & Kien Giang) Source: MARD 2016. Note: — = not available. Key Findings Vietnam’s capacity to manage drought and SWI risks with timely warnings linked to effective disaster preparedness, response, and recovery needs to be strengthened. Institutional fragmentation across water supply, energy, and agriculture sectors limits efficient and sustainable land and water resource management, particularly at the river basin or watershed level. In addition, Vietnam’s disaster risk management (DRM) and climate change adaptation (CCA) policies, plans, and investments are fragmented. As a result, DRM and CCA are not consistently or effectively integrated into socioeconomic development planning at national and subnational levels or within sectors. Furthermore, given the absence of a systematic, participatory, and inclusive approach to socioeconomic development planning, it is T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 4 OV E R V I E W difficult for the country to ensure that resilience measures are appropriately planned and implemented at local level. Fragmented sectoral approaches and institutional arrangements are limiting Vietnam’s capacity to manage risks from drought and disasters more broadly. There are existing interministerial coordination bodies related to DRM, climate change, and water resource management;5 but their mandates overlap somewhat and also leave potential gaps in critical functions of integrated drought risk management. These gaps are reflected both horizontally (between ministries), and vertically (between central and subnational levels). Furthermore, many actions developed under the planning processes of these interministerial committees are not implemented because the bodies lack both the necessary authority and the necessary budgetary and financial resources. The country has plans to improve and better coordinate regulations, policies, and actions related to climate change, disaster risk, natural resources, environmental protection, and land use. The SEDP 2016–2020 recognizes that drought and SWI in particular require immediate attention. To accommodate both the broader and more specific agendas, Vietnam needs an integrated approach that not only addresses the recent crisis but also institutionalizes mechanisms to promote longer-term resilience and address the country’s vulnerabilities to drought, SWI, and other hydro-meteorological hazards.6 These efforts must also recognize that unplanned urban development, vulnerable rural livelihoods, inappropriate land use, and ecosystem degradation are key drivers of risk in Vietnam and compound the country’s vulnerability. 5 The relevant bodies are the Central Committee for Disaster Prevention and Control, chaired by the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) minister, with a standing office in the MARD Department of Disaster Prevention and Control; the National Committee on Climate Change, chaired by the prime minister, with a standing office in the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) Department of Hydrometeorology and Climate Change; and the National Water Resources Council, chaired by the deputy prime minister, with a standing office in the MoNRE Department of Water Resource Management. 6 See Eckardt et al. 2016; Hallegatte et al. 2015; World Bank 2010. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W 5 VIETNAM’S POLICY MAKERS AND COMMUNITIES ARE IN CONTROL OF THE DRIVERS OF DISASTER RISK IN THE COUNTRY Not investing in risk reduction today misses an opportunity for social, economic, and environmental progress that will have impacts for years to come. Potential solutions and opportunities for action sit at the nexus of these core development questions: • Although the average 2016 GDP growth of 6.2 percent represents a recovery from a lagging 5.5 percent in the first half, it was still below the government’s target of 6.7 percent, and can partially be attributed to the agricultural losses due to the drought and SWI. How does the current rice production policy increase Vietnam’s risks for even greater losses in the future? • Vietnam could see losses of over 9 percent of GDP per capita in the case of a major disaster, and given that currently only about 5 percent of assets in the country are covered by insurance, is the government prepared to pay the outstanding bill? • Water is Vietnam’s most precious natural resource, but the per capita use of nearly 1,000 liters per year is about twice the global average. Without changing incentives for more sustainable water usage, how can the country manage the increasing risks of drought and water scarcity? • Climate hazards are a threat to vulnerable people across the world, with the power to push more than a million people back into poverty in the next 15 years. Given that farmers are especially likely to fall back into poverty, how many of these million people will be in Vietnam? Sources: Standard & Poor’s 2015; FAO Aquastat main database 2016. Next Steps: Developing an Action Plan A phased approach is proposed to address urgent needs for drought and SWI risks and longer-term resilience to all types of disaster risks across key sectors. Vietnam needs to undertake strategic planning and coordinated implementation of critical measures and recovery efforts to tackle the impacts of drought and SWI and work toward greater climate resilience. Such an approach will raise awareness among stakeholders in both the public and private sectors. One main goal is to ensure that current and future development activities are sustainable and climate resilient. Such planning must be backed by sound knowledge and scientific understanding in order to target and prioritize investments in technology development and adoption, in infrastructure, and in capacity building. The phased approach would include actions for the short, medium, and long term: • In the short term, Vietnam must evaluate the multi-sector coordination and implementation challenges specifically related to drought and SWI. • In the medium term, it must empower the existing Central Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (CCNDPC) to assist interministerial coordination and serve in an advisory role for integrated DRM. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 6 OV E R V I E W • In the long term, it must mainstream multi-hazard DRM and CCA planning mechanisms for managing natural resources and land use across all climate-sensitive sectors. BOX O.1: Mexico’s National Program Against Drought In January 2013, in response to recurrent drought that had affected most parts of Mexico since 2010, the country’s president announced the National Program Against Drought (PRONACOSE). Coordinated by the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), the program aims to develop tools for a new proactive and preventive approach for integrated drought management at the level of the 26 basin councils across the country. Its specific objectives can be summarized as follows: • Initiate a targeted training program on drought basic concepts and best practices in order to develop local capacity for sustainable integrated drought management in Mexico. • Raise awareness at the basin level and develop a host of drought prevention and mitigation measures. • Establish an interagency committee to coordinate and direct existing drought programs, guide and assess PRONACOSE, and fund the actions proposed by stakeholders at the basin level. • Involve experts and researchers in responding to the identified needs in drought management. • Develop a communication and outreach program that emphasizes vulnerability, participation, prevention, and the evolution of drought. Assessing implemented activities and ensuring sustainability through feedback in various phases are important elements of the framework of PRONACOSE, which is due to run till 2018. As a starting point in 2013, CONAGUA developed the Prevention and Mitigation Measures for Drought Programmes (PMPMS) for each basin council, building on global experiences. PMPMS addresses the drought characteristics and vulnerability of each basin. CONAGUA staff and researchers from 12 national institutions were trained to standardize the activities and contents of these programs, which were implemented in the second and third years (2014–2015). After evaluation of the implemented programs in 2016–2017, the programs are to be improved, updated, and implemented again from the sixth year (2018). A continued gradual implementation beyond the sixth year is expected through ownership of the programs by the basin councils. Source: Adapted from WMO and GWP 2014. In the short term, Vietnam should evaluate the multi-sector coordination and implementation challenges specifically related to drought and SWI. The objective is to identify gaps in the policies, programs, and investments undertaken by MARD, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE), and other relevant ministries. Based on the detailed evaluation, overall guidance could be provided to improve the effectiveness and coordination horizontally across sectors as well as T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W 7 vertically at national, regional, and provincial levels. The CCNDPC should establish a dedicated task force to identify measures that specifically address drought and SWI. Selected global experiences from Mexico and Brazil show how drought management has been integrated effectively into government policy, as highlighted in boxes O.1 and O.2. BOX O.2: Transition to Proactive Drought Management Approaches in Brazil Northeast Brazil experienced a prolonged and severe drought between 2010 and 2014—the region’s worst drought crisis in 100 years. The event focused federal attention on drought management approaches, with authorities seeking to move away from ad hoc and reactive crisis response mechanisms toward a more proactive drought preparedness, planning, and management approach. There were considerable short- and long-term challenges that threatened to hamper the transition. For instance, the paucity of information available on the economic and social impacts of the drought made it difficult to draw up disaster preparedness plans. In addition, the responsibilities of different institutions for the various drought preparedness activities (e.g., vulnerability assessments, monitoring, and recovery) were ill-defined. To close these gaps, national and state dialogues were held with the aim of introducing an integrated National Drought Policy and highlighting specific priority areas for the institutions involved. Led by the Ministry of National Integration, these discussions resulted in the formalization of a National Drought Policy with three broad pillars: • Monitoring and forecasting/early warning activities • Vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments • Mitigation and response planning and measures The policy was piloted within regions most affected by the drought, and concrete adaptation plans were implemented at the regional and local levels. For example, in Northeast Brazil, an online drought monitor was launched, and tailored drought preparedness plans relevant to different environments were catalyzed and put in place—e.g., for river basins, urban water supply systems, and rural agricultural systems. Based on the forecasted severity of an upcoming drought and the affected geographical areas identified by the drought monitor, different preparedness activities are triggered. Source: Gutiérrez et al. 2014. Medium- and long-term actions are needed to strengthen the country’s path toward institutionalizing resilience through integrated disaster risk management and climate change adaptation approaches. In the medium term, an empowered CCNDPC offers a new model for implementing integrated DRM, one that requires multi-sector coordination. A national program should be integrated within the broader DRM and CCA policy frameworks, and empowerment of the CCNDPC should be T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 8 OV E R V I E W facilitated by enabling legislation to carry out coordination and advisory roles at the central and provincial levels. To sustain economic growth and build climate resilience, there must be a long-term commitment to integrated water resource management and land-use planning. Vietnam needs to implement comprehensive water-use policies that maximize efficiency between and within sectors and that are appropriate across the country at the river basin or watershed level. To optimize efficiency within sectors, policy interventions should encourage adoption of water-saving and soil moisture–retaining technologies. Through area-based planning, DRM, community engagement efforts, and other interventions, policy tools should facilitate the “waterproofing” of economies. Policies should seek to reduce the socioeconomic impacts of extreme weather events, rainfall variability, and uncertainty. The actions listed and discussed below take account of the impacts at national, eco- regional, and community levels and bring a multi-hazard perspective to bear on climate change impacts and extreme events. Short Term: Design, pilot, and standardize proven practices Medium/Long Term: Scale up and institutionalize practices Smarter Disaster Preparedness, Tools for Mainstreaming Resilience in Response, and Recovery Development 1. Integrated drought monitoring and 5. Systems to enable integrated water warning systems linking hydro-met resource management (both supply systems to preparedness and response and demand side) and climate-sensitive procedures land-use planning at river basin, coastal zone, and watershed levels 2. Financial protection strategy for effective financing of response and recovery 6. Climate-smart good agricultural practices from crops, livestock, aquaculture, and 3. Adaptive social assistance systems to other productive assets support vulnerable household 7. Inclusive, community-based approaches 4. Risk and vulnerability analysis for target for DRM and CCA, and skilled human areas and populations to provide resources to implement them location-specific and effective last-mile delivery of support 8. Empowerment of vulnerable populations to access available risk reduction opportunities to enhance risk resilience and livelihoods Sources: UN and GoV 2016; World Bank. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W 9 1. Balance investments in modernizing hydro-meteorological monitoring and forecast systems with processes to enable effective use of forecast and early warning for better disaster preparedness and response actions. Location-specific drought monitoring and seasonal forecasts are critical to improving the effectiveness of drought mitigation measures for agriculture. Timely and accurate information is critical for rural communities; there must be better operational guidelines for issuing warnings connected to a drought monitoring system. Translating weather and early warning information into different sets of user advisories will ensure more efficient use of information. It will also maximize benefits of favorable weather conditions and reduce the adverse impacts of hazardous weather events. Advisories that are linked to well-designed preparedness plans and response protocols are an essential element of proactive risk management. 2. Devise a national financial protection strategy so that the government can better plan for the efficient financing of rapid response and recovery in the aftermath of disasters. A cost-effective financial protection strategy builds on an optimal combination of financial instruments that allows disaster losses to be absorbed. The mix of instruments could include contingency budgets, multi-year national and local disaster reserves, contingent credit, and risk transfer instruments such as insurance. International experience shows that if large-scale agricultural insurance is properly implemented as a public-private partnership, it can smooth agricultural income during droughts and other extreme weather events and thereby provide protection for vulnerable populations (see box O.3 for an example). It is also important to thoroughly review the policy, legal, and operational frameworks for the disaster reserve funds, as well as the funds’ actual operations, particularly in drought-hit provinces where existing funds were not used effectively. 3. Use social assistance programs that provide livelihood support to help people recover from disasters. Regular social assistance programs like cash transfers and public work programs buffer individuals from shocks; they also equip them to improve their livelihoods and create opportunities to build a better life for themselves and their families. Some countries have successfully adapted these programs and their delivery systems to make them more responsive to disasters, and such solutions are also being considered in Vietnam. Under a pilot program currently being carried out in Can Tho City, the local social assistance delivery system is being strengthened and adapted so that in the event of flooding it can scale up operations and deliver assistance to flood-affected households. Institutionally, the role of Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (MoLISA) and its social assistance portfolio and programs would need to be elevated within the overall national DRM framework. This would allow MoLISA to play a meaningful role in DRM, and by extension create an enabling environment for post-disaster T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 10 OV E R V I E W social assistance. Example 1 in box O.4 describes ongoing social protection work in Tra Vinh Province in the Mekong Delta. BOX O.3: Public-Private Partnership in Agricultural Disaster Insurance in China China has implemented many policy measures to strengthen agriculture insurance. These include (i) providing a legal foundation for the management of agriculture insurance operations; (ii) providing premium subsidies for certain crops covered by insurance; and (iii) providing tax benefits for agriculture insurance operators. In addition, China is in the process of establishing a more mature catastrophe insurance framework. An agriculture insurance disaster risk reserve system has been established as protection against the risk of major agricultural disaster. Under this system, insurance companies set aside reserves at a defined ratio to the agriculture insurance premium and accrued underwriting profit, to gradually establish a mechanism for dealing with agricultural disaster shocks. To improve insurance coverage and compensation standards for large-scale farmers, agricultural disaster insurance will be piloted in a total of 200 major grain-producing counties in 2017–2018. These pilot counties mainly plant rice, wheat, and corn, and are located in 13 major grain- producing provinces, including the top three producers, Heilongjiang, Henan, and Shandong. As post-disaster reconstruction is mostly financed by the state, the disaster insurance system is designed to ease the government’s financial burdens. In 2016, about 26 insurance companies operating at the agricultural insurance market offered about 170 types of insurance products covering main crops, cash crops, livestock, forest, fruits, vegetables, medicinal herbs, and local agricultural products. In this successful public-private partnership model, from 2014 to 2016, the average agricultural insurance coverage amount accounted for 20 percent of agricultural output value. Moreover, 9.67 percent of direct economic loss of agricultural production was covered by the compensation amount of RMB 26.7 billion, which is seven times the amount of government relief funds. Sources: OECD 2015; State Council of China 2017; XinhuaNet, “Chinese Counties to Pilot Agricultural Disaster Insurance,” May 31, 2017, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/31/c_136328581.htm. 4. Undertake a thorough analysis of risks and vulnerabilities. Different risks are faced by different sectors (agriculture, water management, and natural forests) and different regions (for example, the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands), and these differences have to be understood to properly tailor risk reduction. Vietnam has to shift focus from post-disaster crisis management to pre-disaster risk management for drought and SWI, just as it has done for other more frequent and rapid-onset disasters. Factors in different eco-regions that compound communities’ vulnerability—for example, population density and rice monoculture practice—have to be taken into account. A more comprehensive nationwide risk and vulnerability T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W 11 BOX O.4: Examples of Ongoing Activities In Vietnam to Support Integrated DRM Across Sectors 1. Adaptive Social Protection Feasibility Assessment for Tra Vinh Province in Mekong Delta: Since January 2016, more than 2 million people in 18 provinces in southern Vietnam have been affected by the El Niño–linked drought and saltwater intrusion crisis. The capacity of the government and communities to manage the impact of the adverse climate conditions was limited by fragmented sectoral approaches and institutional arrangements; as a result, there was no policy integration, and the serious socioeconomic and environmental effects of the crisis were exacerbated. Efforts are now under way to adapt social assistance programs to provide livelihood support to affected people to help them recover from climate disasters. For example, Tra Vinh—one of the 18 provinces to declare a state of emergency during the crisis—is now piloting the World Bank’s Social Assistance System Strengthening Project (SASSP). In collaboration with MoLISA and the Tra Vinh Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (DoLISA), the World Bank is currently assessing the feasibility of developing adaptive social protection (ASP) in Tra Vinh. Building upon and leveraging the work already undertaken on flooding (a rapid-onset disaster) in neighboring Can Tho City, the Tra Vinh engagement focuses on both flooding and drought (slow-onset disaster). The objective is to better prepare the provinces to manage household disaster risk. Specifically, it is intended to help to integrate MoLISA and social assistance into ASP and move Vietnam toward more integrated DRM. 2. Water Balance Assessment in Ninh Thuan Province in South Central Vietnam: To improve the institutional framework and technical capabilities for better drought preparedness in Ninh Thuan Province, and to assess gaps in and opportunities for water resources management, a preliminary assessment of water resources availability was conducted in the Dinh River basin in 2015–2016. In view of DARD’s (Department of Agriculture and Rural Development’s) 2020–2030 Agriculture Development Plan (pending the government of Vietnam’s approval) for new reservoir construction in the province, new water supply alternatives have to be identified to make Ninh Thuan’s water supply systems more resilient to extreme weather conditions. In October 2016, the Water Partnership Program (WPP) approved a work plan to enhance drought/climate resilience with full technical support from government counterparts acting at national and provincial levels, including NAWAPI (National Center for Water Resources Planning and Investigation). The program has undertaken water system analysis in the entire Dinh River basin. It addresses water use across sectors (hydropower, irrigation, urban/rural water supply, and aquaculture) and covers both surface water and groundwater sources. Keeping environmental constraints and minimum supply cost in mind, the ultimate objectives are to determine the optimal size of reservoirs (present and future) and the optimal level of groundwater extractions to meet current and future demands. 3. Supporting Sustainable Coffee Production and Rejuvenation in Central Highlands: Climate change–induced higher temperatures and frequent dry spells have significantly affected coffee yields in the Central Highlands. To facilitate a sustainable transformation in coffee production that would increase farmers’ income while reducing negative environmental impacts, a component of the Vietnam Sustainable Agriculture Transformation Project (VnSAT) is under way. A total of 62,000 box continues next page T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 12 OV E R V I E W small-scale coffee plantations were selected in five target provinces in the Central Highlands to promote good farm management practices, increase adoption of water-saving technologies and tree management, and train farmer organizations and cooperatives. The objective is to integrate DRM into all these activities while helping provinces to improve coffee production. In 2016, VnSAT provided training on “three reductions, three gains” (3R3G) and “one must, five reductions” (1M5R) cultivation techniques. 3R3G refers to reduction in three inputs (seed, chemicals, and water) and gains in three outputs (productivity, quality, and economic efficiency). 1M5R refers to use of registered seeds and reductions in five inputs—seed, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, water use, and post-harvest losses. In May 2017, an assessment of coffee planters who had received training revealed that Dak Lak and Lam Dong Provinces achieved positive results in general, though some criteria were not met. Note: The three examples above are the most recent activities supported by GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) to strengthen and integrate DRM into ongoing larger World Bank–supported projects. analysis, carried out at commune level (as mandated under the government’s community-based DRM program) will identify the priorities and provide solutions for a more efficient last-mile delivery of support for risk reduction and adaptation. 5. In deltas, river basins, and other ecosystems, work to coordinate integrated water resources management and appropriate land use across the water, energy, and agriculture sectors. The interlinked impacts of development from various sectors, and the efficacy of different investments in the face of climate change and dynamic upstream development, remain poorly understood in these highly complex environments. More generally, a sustainable urban and rural water supply will require province- and basin-wide integrated planning in addition to new technical and institutional solutions, given that groundwater and surface water are two major and separate water sources. Local communities affected by water insecurity need to become more involved in decision making about water management, and provinces should develop their own integrated water resource management plans. Example 2 in box O.4 describes a project to assess water balance in the Dinh River basin in Ninh Thuan Province in South Central Vietnam. 6. Climate-smart agriculture practices should be more widely adopted. Climate- smart agriculture (CSA) leverages good agricultural practice (GAP) and integrates the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, social, and environmental) by jointly addressing food security and climate challenges. While rice remains Vietnam’s dominant food staple, its importance in the national economy and diet is declining; policy makers should therefore consider forward-looking approaches to enable flexible land-use planning based on agro-ecological suitability, likely climate change impact, and risks and profitability to the producers. Existing policies T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W 13 and incentives that encourage rice production in marginal areas need revisiting. To reduce the risk that climate change poses to agriculture, it is also important to identify the exposure, sensitivity, and vulnerability of different eco-regions and take appropriate measures to meet their specific needs. Various short-, medium-, and long-term solutions for increasing the adaptive capacities and resilience of communities are available, revolving around early warning and climate information services, “designer” crop varieties, adjustments to cropping calendars and intensities, proper natural resource management (water, soils, forests, aquaculture), diversification (rice-shrimp; salt- and drought-tolerant fruit trees; grass/fodder and vegetable intercropping; multi-species fish culture; livestock), and improved information and knowledge dissemination. Investment in research and development and continuous technology generation are important with effective information dissemination. Example 3 in box O.4 describes an ongoing activity under the Vietnam Sustainable Agriculture Transformation Project (VnSAT) to promote sustainable agriculture by helping small-scale coffee farmers in the Central Highlands to increase income while reducing negative environmental impacts. Box O.5 gives an example of how farmers in Thailand benefited from the government’s policy to restrict winter dry-season rice cultivation as an emergency response to climate disaster. 7. Use community-based approaches—including investments, capacity building, and planning activities—to promote the implementation of resilience measures. Community-based approaches enable genuine participation in decision making across all sectors and can be implemented as stand-alone projects or as part of larger-scale investment programs. Experience shows that mainstreaming DRM and CCA in socioeconomic development plans needs to happen first in communes, where budgets are small but risk and vulnerability reduction can be achieved. Several international nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have supported local planning in communes and at higher administrative levels.7 This approach has proved successful when carried out as part of community-based projects in provinces with high levels of poverty, significant climate-related vulnerabilities, and limited financial and human resources. Given that the drought-stricken areas involve many micro-climate zones, the planning of recovery investments should involve the participation of stakeholders at the commune level. In this way solutions can be tailored to specific circumstances. 8. Identify vulnerable populations and communities that are at most risk to climate change and support communities by empowering individuals. Livelihoods can be improved by providing timely information and adequate training about good agricultural practices and opportunities available for risk reduction and mitigation. Communities can also be empowered through building farmers’ groups, 7 See United Nations Vietnam (2016). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 14 OV E R V I E W BOX O.5: Restricting Rice Production and Sales as Emergency Response in Thailand Thailand’s rice harvest dipped to its lowest in nine years in 2016 due to El Niño–caused water shortages. The following measures were taken to manage the water crisis: • A shift from rice to corn production: The government worked with private associations, including the Thai Feed Mills Association, the Thai Seed Trade Association, and the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), to encourage farmers in irrigated areas to shift from marketing year (MY) 2016/17 off-season rice production to corn production. Close to 0.3 million hectares (ha) of farmland located in the northern and northeastern regions was targeted to reduce off-season rice supply by 1.25 million metric tons (MT) and increase corn production by 1.4 million MT. Participating farmers are eligible for a loan of B 4, 000 per rai (US$714 per ha) from the BAAC. • Stabilization of domestic rice prices: In November 2016, the cabinet approved the On-Farm Rice Pledging Program for fragrant and glutinous rice (for farmers) and the Interest-Rate Subsidy Program (for millers/traders) with the aim of keeping about half the newly harvested fragrant and white rice off the market in order to stabilize domestic prices. Participating farmers receive a direct payment of B 13,000 per MT of pledged fragrant rice (US$371 per MT). Nonparticipating farmers receive a direct payment of B 2,000 per MT (US$57 per MT). The restriction on winter dry-season rice cultivation was lifted following abundant rainfall in early 2017, which replenished major reservoirs supplying the agriculture sector and resulted in a remarkable recovery in rice crop acreage (estimated increase of 975,000 ha) and vegetative vigor compared to 2016. Sources: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2017; GAIN 2016, 2017. improving gender and overall equality (by involving women and youth in local development), encouraging good governance, and promoting cooperation from government agencies. Such inclusive approaches also help vulnerable groups and individuals to understand their rights, responsibilities, and entitlements. For example, a dynamic partnership between the government, an international NGO, and local communities enabled farmers in Thanh Hoa Province in the North Central Coast region of Vietnam to successfully form the Water User Cooperative (WUC) to manage their water resources.8 Set up by the Cam Phu Commune as part of the Thai Long Dam Project, the WUC mobilized local farmers to actively participate and manage the local resources in a sustainable manner, leading to increased government responsiveness and accountability. The farmers were fully involved in decision making regarding water distribution plans and schedules, and in resolving conflicts. The WUC benefited people at multiple levels—for example, by promoting better access to irrigation and drinking water through controlled 8 See Sinh (2002). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W 15 water supply. This, in turn, reduced the work load of men, women, and children, as farm activities became easier and collection of water for domestic use became less time-consuming. Farmers gained better incomes due to increased crop yields, crop diversification, and livestock and fish farming. For an example of a comprehensive development project in China, see box O.6. BOX O.6: Helping Chinese Farmers Adapt to Climate Change Through Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) Irrigated Agriculture Intensification Loan Project III (IAIL3) in China was a large-scale initiative under Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) implemented by the State Office of Comprehensive Agricultural Development (SOCAD) within the Ministry of Finance. Activities under CAD are funded by the central government of China to support agricultural and ecological development, strengthen agricultural infrastructure, ensure national food security, advance agro-processing production, and increase farmers’ income. Building on the success of IAIL1 and IAIL2, and partly financed through a World Bank loan, IAIL3 aimed to enhance adaptation of agriculture and water management practices by increasing awareness about climate change and through capacity building. It was implemented from 2005 to 2010 in five provinces—Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, and Henan—in the 3H Plain of the Yellow, Huaihe, and Haihe River basins. The 3H Plain is the major agricultural zone in China. SOCAD incorporated climate change adaptation actions into IAIL3 with additional funding by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) through the Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture project. Engineering, agronomic, and management measures were taken to promote water saving, increase agricultural yield, and secure farmers’ livelihood, as summarized below: • Yield improvement. Farmers’ income was increased by the use of early maturing and drought- and pest-resistant varieties of wheat to improve yields. Greenhouses were built through the project to encourage farmers to grow off-season vegetables, thus increasing their income. • Infrastructure improvement. Water-stopping walls and sluices were introduced as an adaptive water-saving measure. The walls help maintain the water table in addition to containing discharge of harmful chemicals into water bodies, and the sluices enable storage of irrigation water. • Education and outreach. Expert teams organized farmer training to raise awareness of and build capacity for climate change adaptation. Experts from China Agriculture University and the Home of Rural Women, a nonprofit organization, delivered targeted training to women, particularly addressing their active role in the project and adaptation activities. • Farmers’ participation. To encourage active participation of farmers, specifically women, water user associations (WUAs) and specialized agricultural associations were promoted. To encourage farmers to take ownership of managing and maintaining the facilities and adaptation methods, irrigation facilities were constructed and handed over to WUAs. Source: Wang and Li 2013. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 16 OV E R V I E W Recommended Actions A holistic and integrated approach that includes both structural and nonstructural measures is proposed to address impacts of drought and SWI and to promote longer-term resilience measures across key sectors. Tackling the impacts of all types of disaster risks nationally will require well thought-out strategic planning and coordinated implementation of medium- and long-term measures from a multi-hazard perspective. Such planning must be backed by sound local knowledge, scientific understanding (for targeting and prioritizing investments for technology development and adoption), infrastructure creation, and capacity building. To effectively address the drought and SWI, an integrated approach using both structural and nonstructural interventions (policies, capacity building, information, technologies, infrastructure, and services) is needed. Table O.2 provides options drawn from global good practices as well as from Vietnam’s experience with the 2015–2016 drought and SWI. To develop location-specific action plans (short and longer term) for different geographic areas based on their vulnerability to external shocks (such as extreme weather) and socioeconomic characteristics, these preliminary recommendations should be further prioritized and refined. Some recommendations are grouped together in the table below, but they can be further expanded as necessary. Actions that are needed in the immediate or short term (less than two years) are given under the “short term” time frame. Those that require a longer implementation period (more than two years) are addressed under the “medium/long term” time frame. In the table, the time frames are indicated by green bars. When action begins in the short term and continues over a longer term, the green bar spans both time frames. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M TABLE O.2: Summary of Recommended Actions Based on National and International Experiences to Address Drought and SWI and to Promote Short- and Longer-Term Resilience OV E R V I E W Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) Institutional • Coordinate programs and investments across ministries and agencies at national and subnational levels • Establish high-level interministerial commission to oversee drought and SWI risk management activities • Improve institutional capacities and accountability to ensure effective response to future crises and longer-tem resilience Social • Integrate drought and SWI resilience into socioeconomic development plans • Enable household-level recovery through effectively delivered social assistance and promote community-based approaches Capacity Building Cross-sectoral • Empower all stakeholders, especially vulnerable groups, through capacity building and training at all levels (e.g., administrative/technical staff, community level) T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M • Involve local communities, especially vulnerable groups, in decision making and community asset building • Enable productive vertical and horizontal linkages between stakeholders through community-based approach Financial • Develop a viable financial protection mechanism for emergency response and recovery table continues next page 17 18 Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) • Remove inconsistencies in existing subsidy policies being implemented, particularly those that encourage rice production in high-risk areas • Identify and pilot a functional insurance program such as weather index–based insurance to protect affected households and small value-chain enterprises from financial impacts of drought, floods, and SWI • Provide adequate resources for both short- and longer-term priority activities and improved impact monitoring and accountability • Support private and public agribusiness enterprises and farmers’ cooperative organizations • Consider protective financing to establish shrimp breeding enterprises and greenhouses in Mekong Delta Cross-sectoral Hydro-meteorological • Develop detailed current and projected risk profiles for different regions for natural hazards such as drought, SWI, floods, landslides, coastal storms, and wildfires • Implement user-focused hydro-meteorological services, improve medium- and longer-duration reliable weather forecasting, and raise awareness of the threat from related hazards among all stakeholders • Produce and continually validate maps of high-risk areas for early warning and advisory services table continues next page T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) OV E R V I E W • Improve surface water and groundwater resource monitoring (availability, flows, quality, and salinity levels) and management; improve emergency water allocation at basin and subbasin scale, including transboundary and inter-basin water transfer initiatives • Coordinate integrated water resource management across the water, energy, and agriculture sectors and for different purposes • Maximize the benefits from existing urban and rural water supply and irrigation infrastructures using climate-resilient and efficient water storage, supply, on-farm irrigation, and drainage systems for sustainable water use • Conduct economic and financial analysis of all water-related activities to assess productivity and efficiency; conduct water systems analysis to serve as a modern planning tool • Consider water charges to reduce wasteful use of water • Ensure appropriate water management practices during high-salinity period • Implement watershed management and water-saving technologies in upstream Water Resource Management provinces to allow higher water flow to coastal provinces • Support groundwater recharge practices in suitable locations as well as rainwater T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M harvesting • Support communities and local authorities in developing suitable desalination plants • Improve wastewater treatment and biosecurity standards to better control shrimp disease as part of GAP table continues next page 19 20 Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) • Ensure availability and affordability of food stocks in the affected areas and maintain strategic grain reserves • Shift away from a current emphasis on rice production in favor of more diversified agriculture and cash-cropping systems • Identify and deploy location-specific climate-smart agriculture and GAP, including appropriate land use, to reduce the damage from drought, floods, and SWI; facilitate compulsory adoption through improved policies and investments • Support R&D and promote the use of cultivars tolerant of drought, salt, and water submergence • Protect animal assets from these disasters by improving fodder and feed stock availability, pasture management, drinking water, and veterinary services • In the highlands, improve tree cover in watershed areas and promote integrated Agriculture crops, agro-forestry, and livestock mixed farming systems • In the coastal areas, facilitate transition from freshwater crops to sustainable brackish water aquaculture • In the Mekong Delta, provide economic incentives and other support services to seafood value chains and households converting salinity-affected rice fields into integrated rice- shrimp and other aquaculture farming • Enhance farm-to-market links to strengthen value chains, including improvement of storage facilities • Employ targeted preventive interventions for risk and vulnerability reduction (for example, protecting seed reserves, improved agricultural extension services, etc.) T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M OV E R V I E W OV E R V I E W 21 Support from the World Bank The World Bank can offer both financial and technical assistance to support the government of Vietnam (GoV) in implementing resilient development investments. Drawing on lessons from global good practices and from tested and proven measures in Vietnam, as well as on country-specific knowledge from an active and long-standing investment portfolio, the Bank has developed priority actions for the short, medium, and long term. Using proven global practices and involving stakeholders at all levels will encourage adoption of the identified measures and thus help to build resilience to drought and SWI. The World Bank’s development assistance objectives fit into the longer-term recovery time frame. The emergency response plan prepared by the United Nations and the GoV provided both a summary of recommended actions for the humanitarian phase (three to five months) and recommendations for longer-term recovery. An initial review of the Bank’s active portfolio focused on several of the actions listed in the emergency response plan’s recovery table, including measures to strengthen priority infrastructure and to build capacity for greater climate resilience in the government and among local communities. Considering that a portion of recovery could be supported by reprogramming from existing development allocations, there is also an urgent need to transform risk management over the longer term so that the normal flow of development interventions is not jeopardized. Efforts that build on or address gaps in the country’s ongoing programs to promote resilience will have immediate and substantial benefits for future economic growth. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 22 REFERENCES References Eckardt, Sebastian, Viet Tuan Dinh, Philip B. 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Standard & Poor’s, Global Credit Portal. 2015. “Storm Alert: Natural Disasters Can Damage Sovereign Creditworthiness.” September 10. http://www.standardandpoors.com/ RATINGSDIRECT. State Council of China. 2017. “Chinese Counties to Pilot Agricultural Disaster Insurance.” May. http://english.gov.cn/state_council/ministries/2017/05/31/content_281475672465534.htm. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M REFERENCES 23 UN (United Nations) and GoV (Government of Vietnam). 2016. “Viet Nam: Emergency Response Plan 2016/17, Update on Recovery—October 2016.” http://reliefweb.int/report/viet-nam/ viet-nam-emergency-response-plan-201617-update-recovery-october-2016. United Nations Vietnam. 2016. “Details for Viet Nam: Drought and Saltwater Intrusion—Situation Update No. 3 (as of 15 June 2016).” http://www.un.org.vn/en/publications/government- agency-publications/doc_details/507-viet-nam-drought-and-saltwater-intrusion-situation- update-no-3-as-of-15-june-2016.html. USDA Foreign Agricultural Service. 2017. “Thailand: Rice Production Rebounds Following El Niño.” Commodity Intelligence Report. February 15. https://pecad.fas.usda.gov/ highlights/2017/02/Thailand/index.htm. Wang, Lanying, and Qun Li. 2013. “World Resources Report Case Study. Adaptation to Climate Change in Action in China’s Agricultural Development.” World Resources Institute, Washington DC. http://www.worldresourcesreport.org. World Bank. 2010. “Weathering the Storm: Options for Disaster Risk Financing in Vietnam.” World Bank, Washington, DC. World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and Global Water Partnership (GWP). 2014. “National Drought Management Policy Guidelines: A Template for Action (D. A. Wilhite).” Integrated Drought Management Program (IDMP) Tools and Guidelines Series 1. WMO, Geneva; and GWP, Stockholm. http://www.droughtmanagement.info/literature/IDMP_NDMPG_en.pdf. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 24 REFERENCES T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CHAPTER 1 Introduction Drought, saltwater intrusion (SWI), and other natural hazards such as floods and tropical cyclones are perennial issues in Vietnam, bringing damages at the local, regional, and national levels that hinder economic performance and achievement of development goals. Communities suffer from the loss of assets, livelihoods, and labor force; all too often the most vulnerable are locked into endemic poverty cycles. Indeed, the threats facing the country are growing with each passing year, as climate change leads to disasters that are more frequent and severe. The underlying causes of vulnerabilities must be addressed to strengthen resilience to future disasters. The real challenge is to achieve institutional paradigm shifts toward climate resilience rather than implement one-time initiatives focusing on limited regions or short-term projects. The World Bank’s approach to recovery in Vietnam is to ensure that current and future development activities accelerate efforts to build resilience. Considering that reprogramming from existing development allocations will support a portion of recovery, only a longer-term transformation of how Vietnam manages disaster risk will ensure that normal development is not jeopardized. The World Bank has substantial experience working to develop the resilience of communities in drought-affected areas. The many projects carried out in other countries in sustainable development of agriculture, water resources, disaster risk management (DRM), and climate change adaptation (CCA) hold important lessons on how to plan recovery and shape future drought resilience programming. Going forward, the World Bank aims to support Vietnam’s further recovery through increased resilience—effectively pairing the programming of immediate recovery interventions with longer-term vulnerability reduction measures. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 25 26 INTRODUCTION T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CHAPTER 2 Context in Vietnam Vietnam is a remarkable success story of rapid growth, poverty reduction, and shared prosperity. Since the launch of the Đổi Mới reforms in the late 1980s, Vietnam has sustained rapid economic growth, with gross domestic product (GDP) growth averaging 5.5 percent annually. Real per capita GDP more than tripled between 1990 and 2014, lifting more than 40 million people out of poverty. Vietnam has great potential to reach further milestones in poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and sustainability—but it currently faces a new set of challenges. Its growth model is threatened by adverse impacts of pollution, climate change, and rapid degradation of natural resources and environmental assets. Meeting this threat will require transforming several sectors, including agriculture, energy, fisheries, forestry, and infrastructure, and reducing the exposure of urban and rural areas to rapid- and slow-onset climate hazards.9 2.1 Socioeconomic Context The agricultural sector remains at the core of Vietnam’s economy and contributes more than 18 percent of GDP.10 Since the 1990s, steady advances in smallholder rice productivity, along with intensification and cultivation of high-value crops, have played a central role in Vietnam’s successes in poverty reduction, national food security, and social stability. Aggregate land productivity—measured as value added per hectare (ha) of agricultural land—increased rapidly in the 1990s and is now higher than in all regional peer countries with the exception of Malaysia. Use of high-yield rice strains and other inputs, along with construction of a dike network, has allowed cultivation of up to three rice crops a year and enabled Vietnam to increase rice yields fourfold since the 1970s.11 The growth of aquaculture, both intensive and extensive, is rather ad hoc and often plagued by shrimp disease and pollution. Coastal forests 9 World Bank 2016d. 10 FAO 2016a. 11 Phys.org, “Vietnam Rice Boom Heaping Pressure on Farmers, Environment,” March 2015, http://phys.org/ news/2015-03-vietnam-rice-boom-pressure-farmers.html. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 27 28 CONTEXT IN VIETNAM and mangroves have been degraded in several sections of the coastline, resulting in more severe coastal erosion, which further aggravates SWI. While water resources in Vietnam remain plentiful, there are increasing concerns about the sustainability of the water supply from river basins and groundwater. In recent years, upstream damming and reservoir construction in neighboring countries have decreased this water supply significantly. In-country water resources account for only about 37 percent of the total water volume. These resources are concentrated mostly in the Red River and Mekong River Deltas and in the Central Highlands. Apart from the quantity of water, the quality of surface water is also significantly declining, with increased pollution and salinity. Municipal water supply companies, households, and farmers all rely on extracted groundwater. In several areas, groundwater extraction is well above the rate of recharge of groundwater aquifers and causes low-lying areas—including the Mekong Delta—to subside at rates faster than projected sea-level rise.12 The Socio-economic Development Plan (SEDP) 2016–2020 proposes that climate change response, disaster prevention, resource management, and environmental protection be mainstreamed into development planning at all levels. Further, the SEDP includes plans to improve and better coordinate regulations, policies, and actions for managing climate change, disaster risk, natural resources, environmental protection, and land use. Matters that require immediate attention include medium- and long-term recovery from the drought in the Central Highlands and the South Central regions, to prevent SWI and retain freshwater. The SEDP 2016–2020 includes two major targets: a GDP growth rate of 6.5–7.0 percent a year, and a reduction in the ratio of poor households by an average of 1.0–1.5 percent a year. The 2015–2016 drought and SWI have jeopardized the achievement of the targets for many provinces, and perhaps the whole country, and may have consequences in the future, as well. The Ministry of Planning and Investment (MPI) had warned that drought-induced damage to agricultural output could drag growth down to 5.45 percent for 2016. Even though the GDP grew at a rate of 6.2 percent in 2016, it was still below the 6.7 percent target for the year. Hydro-meteorological hazards have a disproportionate impact on the poor and vulnerable, whose access to assets, resources, and services is limited. Poverty also contributes to the impacts of such hazards by increasing people’s vulnerability and reducing their capacity to respond to and cope with hazards. Given the country’s increasing vulnerability to the impacts of climate change and its persistent challenges in reducing poverty and ensuring sustainable development, the poverty-disaster nexus is important for Vietnam. 12 Wyatt, Thanh, and Gian 2013. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CONTEXT IN VIETNAM 29 2.2 Natural Hazards Overview Vietnam is one of the most hazard-prone countries in the East Asia and Pacific region, with frequent storms and flooding responsible for substantial economic and human losses. Over the past 20 years, disaster events in Vietnam have caused more than 13,000 deaths and property damage in excess of US$6.4 billion.13 Almost 60 percent of Vietnam’s land area and over 70 percent of its population are at risk of multiple natural hazards, including typhoons, floods, droughts, SWI, landslides, forest fires, and occasional earthquakes.14 Table 2.1 presents a region-specific overview of natural hazard exposure, and shows that drought and SWI represent distinct levels of hazard for the Mekong Delta, South Central Coast, and Central Highlands. TABLE 2.1: Overview of Regional Exposure to Natural Hazards in Vietnam Red North South Northwest Northeast Central Mekong Hazard River Central Central Southeast mountains mountains Highlands Delta Delta Coast Coast Storm 1 3 4 4 4 2 2 3 Flood 1 1 4 4 4 2 2 4 Saltwater 0 0 1 2 2 0 1 4 intrusion Sea-level 0 0 2 2 2 0 3 4 rise Landslide & flash 3 3 1 3 3 2 1 1 flood Drought 2 2 1 4 4 4 2 2 Source: Adapted from McElwee 2010. Note: Each indicator is ranked by relative importance in comparison with other regions, with 0 being lowest impact/ importance and 4 being highest impact/importance. The results of a financial risk assessment show that Vietnam faces an Annual Expected Loss (AEL) of US$786.4 million, or the equivalent of 0.8 percent of GDP (2010 values).15 Damages from floods represent the highest risk in the country, followed by storms and droughts, as shown in figure 2.1. Climate change is projected to increase the impact of disasters, especially the frequency, severity, and intensity of hydro-meteorological events.16 13 World Bank 2010b. 14 World Bank 2013a. 15 World Bank 2012. 16 GFDRR 2007. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 30 CONTEXT IN VIETNAM FIGURE 2.1: Annual Expected Losses for Vietnam by peril. Drought 19% Storm Earthquake 29% 1% Flood 51% Source: World Bank 2012. 2.3 Climate Change Projections Projections show that Vietnam could be significantly affected by climate change. Vietnam ranked seventh among countries most affected by extreme weather events between 1995 and 2014.17 A 2007 World Bank report lists Vietnam among the five countries likely to be most affected by climate change, in large part due to its location and the economy’s dependence on sectors such as agriculture. According to the report, a 1 m rise in sea level would partially inundate one commune out of five—or 5 percent of the national land area, 11 percent of the population, and 7 percent of agricultural land—unless appropriate measures are taken to prevent it.18 Climate predictions for 2040 show changes that would significantly affect coastal lowlands and low-lying deltas—regions where population and economic assets are concentrated. These changes include intensified heat and cold waves and 28–33 cm sea-level increases (compared to 1980–1999). Temperature increases in Vietnam have averaged about 0.26°C per decade since 1971 (twice the global average), and the number of heat waves has also increased nationally (figure 2.2). In addition, a southward shift has been observed in the typhoon trajectory in the past five decades, a trend that could intensify storm risks in an area already significantly exposed to other growing disaster risks, such as coastal erosion and salinity intrusion. 17 Kreft et al. 2015. 18 Sea level in Vietnam is projected to rise between 28 cm (low-emission scenario) and 33 cm (high emission scenario) by 2050. For more information, see Dasgupta et al. (2007). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CONTEXT IN VIETNAM 31 FIGURE 2.2: Estimated change in number of hot days by the middle of the 21st century (left) and the end of the 21st century (right) compared to the 1980–1999 average. 24°N 24°N 22°N 22°N 20°N 20°N 18°N 18°N 16°N 16°N 70 70 14°N 60 14°N 60 50 50 12°N 40 12°N 40 30 30 20 20 10°N 10 10°N 10 5 5 8°N 0 8°N 0 102°E 104°E 106°E 108°E 102°E 104°E 106°E 108°E Source: UNDP 2015. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Seasonal variability in precipitation and higher temperatures pose increasing drought risk in many provinces. Seasonal variability in precipitation is projected to increase in Vietnam, and higher temperatures will result in more heat waves, with the wet season getting wetter and the dry season drier. Due to higher interannual rainfall variability, many provinces—especially in the South Central Coast region—face a higher risk of drought.19 The country’s exposure and vulnerability to climate change require a well-informed approach that accounts for the demographics, socioeconomic context, political dimensions, and biophysical landscape in allocating resources and coordinating land use and resource planning. A climate-resilient approach to development is needed to reduce the country’s vulnerability. The government of Vietnam (GoV) has 19 Interannual variations tend to be linked with El Niño, which influences monsoon behavior, resulting in drier- and warmer-than-average conditions in Southeast Asia during El Niño years. See McSweeney et al. (2010). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 32 CONTEXT IN VIETNAM a good understanding of climate-driven risks (both extreme and chronic events) in the medium term (5–10 years) and long term (35–40 years), and it is making efforts to increase resilience, especially in extremely vulnerable areas such as the Mekong River Delta. The 2011 National Climate Change Strategy emphasizes proactively coping with natural hazards, monitoring climate, adopting measures to adapt to climate- induced events, enhancing coping capacity, and investing in advanced science and technology to manage climate change.20 The impact of severe drought and SWI in the Mekong Delta and Central Highlands has compounded Vietnam’s vulnerability to climate change. Due to its location and dependence on agriculture, Vietnam faces a high risk of multiple natural hazards, with over 60 percent of its land area under threat—a threat that is exacerbated by climate change. Vulnerability to climate change reflects a system’s susceptibility to adverse effects.21 Thus the key to reducing Vietnam’s vulnerability lies in limiting adverse impacts and increasing adaptive capacity (figure 2.3). To identify priorities and solutions, a comprehensive nationwide vulnerability analysis should be carried out as soon as possible at the district and commune levels. FIGURE 2.3: How a good understanding of vulnerability helps improve adaptive capacity. Vulnerability to Climate Change Exposure Adaptive Impact Capacity Sensitivity Vulnerability Source: Adapted from Sehgal et al. 2013. 20 World Bank 2016c. 21 IPCC 2001. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CONTEXT IN VIETNAM 33 The impact of climate change in Vietnam (as in all countries) is directly related to exposure, which is a function of geography, and to sensitivity, which is a response to climate-related stimuli. Compared to the 1980–1999 baselines, Vietnam is predicted to be exposed to more severe heat and cold and higher sea levels by 2040. Hotter temperatures are already being experienced (figure 2.2), and the Mekong Delta, South Central Coast, and Central Highland regions are now exposed to severe drought and SWI (table 2.1). Vietnam’s sensitivity—defined by demographic and environmental conditions—lies in the seasonal variability of its precipitation and its higher-than- normal temperatures. Indirectly, freshwater deficit due to low rainfall resulted in SWI in the South Central Coast and Mekong Delta regions. Together, hotter temperatures and low rainfall, and the resulting drought and SWI, have tested Vietnam’s adaptive capacity—and have revealed the country’s adaptation deficit. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 34 CONTEXT IN VIETNAM T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CHAPTER 3 Background of the 2015–2016 Drought and Saltwater Intrusion At the end of 2015, warmer-than-average temperatures and prolonged periods without rainfall attributed to El Niño caused the strongest and longest drought in Vietnam in 90 years.22 The situation was worsened by SWI in the South Central Coast and Mekong Delta regions, the result of decreased freshwater from rainfall, reduced upstream river flows, and falling groundwater levels. Because affected provinces were located in regions that usually produce key agricultural exports and food crops (rice, coffee, pepper, fruit, and aquaculture products), the drought has proved especially harmful. Table 3.1 gives an overview of the impact in the 18 severely affected provinces. 3.1 Overview of Impacts and Key Affected Regions 3.1.1 Drought and Saltwater Situation Snapshot • Twenty-two out of 63 provinces (35 percent of the country) were affected by the 2015–2016 drought and associated SWI (figure 3.1). Eighteen provinces were severely affected, including 14 that declared a state of emergency. • Financial support from the central government was requested by all affected provinces across the Mekong Delta, South Central, and Central Highlands regions. • More than 2 million people had insufficient access to drinking water during the peak of the drought (February–May 2016). The cost of purchased water in some affected areas increased more than tenfold, beyond the reach of poor households. As a result, water-related diseases and cases of severe acute malnutrition also increased. box continues next page 22 At the end of June 2016, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development’s Resources Directorate had officially declared the drought at an end in the Mekong Delta, Central Highlands, and Southeast regions. The drought continued in South Central Vietnam until September 2016. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 35 36 B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N • More than 1.1 million people living in drought-affected areas needed food assistance (including 83,835 children and 120,000 pregnant and lactating women who were undernourished). • Crop damage in drought-affected districts varied from 60 to 90 percent of planted crops. • Two million people were affected due to damaged livelihoods, lost assets, and disruption of basic services. Sources: UN and GoV 2016a, 2016b. 3.1.2 Impact on Aquaculture FIGURE 3.1: Drought- and SWI-affected and Agriculture provinces El Niño affects the health and life cycle processes of aquatic species. In Vietnam, LAO reduced river water levels, drought, and THAILAND P.D.R. SWI have together had a harmful impact Kon Tum on the aquatic industry (figure 3.2). For Binh Dinh example, freshwater life is affected both Gia Lai by low water levels due to high Phu Yen temperatures and lack of rainfall, and by Dak Lak CAMBODIA elevated salt levels due to SWI. The effect Dak Nong Khanh Hoa is seen on marine ecology, livelihoods of Binh Phuoc Ninh Lam Dong Thuan fishermen and aquaculturists, the food Tay Ninh Binh Thuan chain, and aquatic product exports. Long An Shrimp farms are concentrated in the Tien Giang Mekong Delta and import larvae from Vinh Ben lta Tre Kien Hau Long Tra De freshwater-fed breeding centers in Giang Giang Soc Vinh DROUGHT AFFECTED PROVINCES ng o SEVERELY AFFECTED PROVINCES Bac Trang ek Central Vietnam, making them especially Lieu M SALTWATER INTRUSION AFFECTED PROVINCES Ca Mau sensitive to drought and SWI. Altogether, IBRD 43082 | SEPTEMBER 2017 some 69,000 ha of aquaculture were Sources: UN and GoV 2016; World Bank. affected in Vietnam.23 The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 23 UN and GoV 2016b. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N 37 FIGURE 3.2: SWI kills freshwater fish (left) and shrimp (right). Sources: Vietnamnet, http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/vietnam-in-photos/151545/drought-and-saltwater-attack-mekong- delta.html; Viet Nam News, http://vietnamnews.vn/society/269078/drought-saline-intrusion-crimp-ca-mau-shrimp-farmers. html#jlqs8cJ1hsc5YY35.97. The drought, SWI, and their compounding impacts threatened national agricultural production; a total of 659,476 ha of crops were damaged or lost, 24 with over 50 percent of the affected rice classified as extremely damaged or completely lost.25 Most affected households did not generate significant income during the drought period because the damaged fields produced drastically lower rice yields. Besides, many households were already in debt due to previous crop losses and did not have sufficient resources to stabilize their livelihoods by restoring farmland or aquaculture plots. The drought also impacted livestock. The 2015–2016 drought and SWI affected Vietnam’s national rice production targets and limited its ability to export rice. For example, direct economic damages and losses to the 18 most-affected provinces were estimated at VND 15,032 billion (about US$674 million; table 3.1), representing 0.35 percent of national GDP and resulting in negative agricultural growth for the first time in decades.26 The Department of Crop Production estimated a cost of approximately VND 34 trillion (US$1.5 billion) to address the damages caused by drought and SWI.27 Vietnam’s rice exports fell about 23 percent, to below 5 million tons—an eight-year low.28 The average rice export price in April 2016 was around US$408 per ton, down about 5 percent per ton from a year earlier. Similarly, drought effects (and lower yields from old trees) 24 Ibid. 25 UNDP 2016. 26 UN and GoV 2016b. 27 Asian Correspondent, “Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Hit by Worst Drought in Years,” March 2016, https://asiancorre- spondent.com/2016/03/vietnam-drought/. 28 Data are from PSD Online (USDA Foreign Agricultural Service), https://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/app/index. html#/app/home. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 38 B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N meant that Vietnam’s coffee exports plunged about 24 percent in 2015.29 Although it recovered in 2016, it was still about 12 percent lower than in 2014.30 TABLE 3.1: Overview of Damage Impact of 2015–2016 Drought and SWI in Eighteen Severely Affected Provinces in Vietnam Production area affected (ha) Number of Total Number of households Number economic severely lacking access of Region loss affected Rice Crop Aquaculture to water for livestock (billion provinces consumption lost VND) and daily use National 18 243,762 168,064 69,008 457,796 — 15,023 3 South Central (Ninh Thuan, 10,776 15,000 — 43,482 5,126 1,457 Coast Binh Thuan, & Khanh Hoa) 5 Central (Kon Tum, Gia 17,541 141,756 — 72,060 496 6,004 Highlands Lai, Dak Lak, Dak Nong, & Lam Dong) 10 out of 13 (Long An, Tien Giang, Ben Mekong Tre, Tra Vinh, Delta Vinh Long, Soc 215,445 — 68,916 342,254 933 7,517 Trang, Hau Giang, Bac Lieu, Ca Mau, & Kien Giang) Source: MARD 2016. Note: — = not available. The drought and SWI had significant adverse economic repercussions for Vietnam’s agricultural output and exports. The MPI had warned that drought-induced damage to agricultural output could drag growth down to 5.45 percent for 2016. Although other sectors contributed to a growth of 6.2 percent, it was still below the 6.7 percent target for 2016. At a subnational level, provinces across affected regions lost on average 2.17 percent of their GDP due to the drought and SWI (with likely underreporting). Provinces with particularly high economic losses (based on CCNDPC reporting) were 29 Ibid. 30 Vnexpress.net, “Vietnam Coffee Exports Grew in 2016 Despite Drought,” December 31, 2016, http://e.vnexpress. net/news/business/vietnam-coffee-exports-grew-in-2016-despite-drought-3522008.html. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N 39 Dak Nong (8.79 percent), Dak Lak (5.64 percent), Kien Giang (3.94 percent), Ben Tre (3.81 percent), Tra Vinh (3.64 percent), and Ca Mau (3.29 percent).31 Mekong Delta Region During the 2015–2016 drought, affected provinces in the Mekong Delta region were impacted by the most extensive SWI in 90 years (figure 3.1). Saltwater intrusion is usually a cyclical, natural phenomenon in the Mekong Delta. But in 2016, SWI started two months earlier, extended inland an average of 50–60 km further, and contaminated land about 20–30 km further inland than is typical (figure 3.3). By the end of April 2016, SWI had affected approximately 40–50 percent of arable land in the Mekong Delta, an area that provides more than half the country’s rice, 70 percent of its fruit exports, and 60 percent of its fishery exports.32 As a result of SWI, the rice cultivation area in this region declined by 16.7 percent between mid-March 2015 and mid-March 2016.33 The most impacted province was Ca Mau, with more than 49,000 ha of paddy crops affected. The respective figures for Kien Giang and Ben Tre are 34,000 ha and 13,844 ha.34 At the peak of the drought, 11 out FIGURE 3.3: Saltwater intrusion as of April 8, 2016. of the 13 provinces in the Mekong Delta were seriously impacted by SWI, with the highest salinization increases recorded at the Ben Tre and Tien Giang stations. Provinces in the Mekong Delta experienced delayed summer-autumn crops, which put the cultivation of an additional 500,000 ha of rice paddy— representing over 30 percent of the agricultural land in the region—at risk. Despite the release of additional water by upstream countries in March 2016 in response to the emergency, the water Source: United Nations Vietnam 2016b. levels of the Mekong River and other The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown major rivers were still the lowest recorded on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 31 United Nations Vietnam 2016c. 32 Thomas Maresca, “Vietnam’s Mekong Delta Hit with Worst Drought in 90 Years,” USA Today, April 26, 2016, http:// www.usatoday.com/story/news/world/2016/04/21/vietnams-mekong-delta-hit-worst-drought-90-years/83231314/. 33 The figures are from Le Anh Tuan, climate change professor at the University of Can Tho, as cited in Channel News Asia, “Vietnam Hit by Worst Drought in 90 Years,” March 2016, http://www.channelnewsasia.com/news/asiapacific/viet- nam-hit-by-worst/2562802.html. 34 Tuoi Tre News, “Drought, Salinity Threaten Millions of Farmers in Vietnam’s Mekong Delta,” March 7, 2016, http:// tuoitrenews.vn/society/33600/drought-salinity-threaten-millions-of-farmers-in-vietnams-mekong-delta. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 40 B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N in 90 years. The degraded mangroves and coastal ecosystems contributed to more coastal erosion during the dry season, which resulted in even further SWI in southern areas. Central Highlands and South Central Regions In the Central Highlands and South Central regions, the drought impacted nearly 70 percent of cultivated area.35 Local authorities estimated that about 40,000 ha of paddy rice in three South Central provinces (Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan) were unirrigated (figure 3.4), and almost 31,000 households lacked access to safe water to meet daily needs. Estimates for the Central Highlands indicated that in Dak Lak, Lam Dong, Dak Nong, and Kon Tum about 150,000 ha of agricultural lands (in addition to 10,000 ha used for coffee cultivation) remained unirrigated. According to estimates, coffee and cocoa exports along with pepper production fell by 25 percent.36 Cashew production fell by 11 percent.37 FIGURE 3.4: Map of provinces in South Central region affected by extreme drought (Khanh Hoa, Ninh Thuan, and Binh Thuan). Source: National Centre for Hydro- meteorological Forecasting. The boundaries, colors, denominations and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. 35 Oryza Weekly Update, “Vietnam Outlines Measures to Cope with Drought, Saltwater Intrusion,” April 20, 2016, http://oryza.com/25741/vietnam-outlines-measures-cope-drought-salt-water-intrusion. 36 VietnamNet, “Long Drought Hits Crops in Vietnam,” May 5, 2016, english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/environment/.../long- drought-hits-crops-in-vietnam.html. 37 Bloomberg, “Cashew Prices Are about to Go Nuts,” October 31, 2016, https://www.bloomberg.com/news/ articles/2016-10-31/snack-food-sticker-shock-for-cashew-eaters-after-vietnam-drought. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N 41 3.2 Response to 2015–2016 Drought and SWI Crisis by the Government of Vietnam By April 2016, the GoV had distributed 9,936 tons of relief food to the three drought-affected regions (Mekong Delta, South Central Coast, and Central Highlands), trucked in 2 million m3 of water, and provided 630,000 doses of Chloramine B and 400,000 Aquatabs for water-insecure households. In April 2016, the GoV and United Nations (UN) launched an emergency response plan to address immediate lifesaving and livelihood-protection interventions for the next three to five months and to identify longer-term actions for resilience.38 The GoV had also provided around VND 1 trillion (US$45 million) for drought relief nationally, including water-related services and food and cash support to affected households across 18 provinces since late 2015. Provinces’ immediate needs were identified as seedling and crop recovery, water storage, and provision of water supplies, including those for filtering and treating salinized water. Provinces tried to respond to the impacts of drought and SWI, notably by rescheduling winter-spring crop planting; applying integrated reservoir and irrigation management for agricultural production; promoting water- saving irrigation and farming techniques; establishing temporary dams, pumps, and drainage to increase water storage; and using public water filters. They also proposed other urgent investments in water resources and salinity management to address the drought and SWI in the medium and long term, including embankments, pumping and drainage stations, and upgrades of the sluice gate system. On March 15, 2016, the GoV requested support from the international community for its relief efforts, with priority given to ensuring water supply, storage, and treatment in drought-affected areas; food security and nutritional support; and increased monitoring of potential outbreaks of disease. On April 26, 2016, the GoV and the UN launched an appeal to the international community to support the US$48.5 million emergency response plan,39 which included a summary of recommended actions for the humanitarian phase (three to five months) and initial recommendations for recovery over the next two years. The plan also identified the following strategic goals and mainstreaming priorities for the resilience and recovery component: 1. Ensure that the most vulnerable have sustainable access to clean water for human consumption and domestic use and are able to ensure their food security and rebuild their livelihoods; enhance health and nutrition monitoring for children, pregnant and lactating women, and other vulnerable groups. 38 Most of the figures in this section are from the UN Country Team in Vietnam and MARD; see UN and GoV (2016b). 39 United Nations Vietnam 2016a T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 42 B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N 2. Promote investment in sustainable water and sanitation infrastructure and systems that can increase resilience to future extreme climate events such as droughts and floods. 3. Strengthen community-based disaster risk management (CBDRM) planning within communes, and strengthen national information management, assessment mechanisms, and the monitoring of drought and its impacts, including identification and targeting of the most vulnerable. 3.3 Focus on Medium- and Longer-Term Preparedness and Resilience Building The country must build on its ongoing programs to promote resilience and must also address substantial gaps and challenges. It is important to focus on medium and longer-term preparedness and resilience building. A continuation of the emergency response plan—referred to as the Drought Recovery Plan—was announced by the GoV and UN on October 24, 2016.40 This plan estimated a recovery need of US$368 million in 2017 and US$687 million for 2018–2020. It found that water levels in the Mekong were still below average, though heavy rains had contributed to rising levels. Drought and SWI continued in the Central Highlands and Mekong Delta but were less severe than in 2015. The drought affected 2 million people (including 1 million females and 0.52 million children) and impacted agriculture (nearly 660,000 ha of rice, fruit, pepper and coffee), aquaculture (over 69,000 ha), and livestock (caused the deaths of over 8,300 animals). The Drought Recovery Plan released by the GoV and the UN is a targeted four- year plan that seeks to (i) enable good governance by strengthening government ownership and capacity, elevating transparency and accountability, and enhancing monitoring and evaluation; and (ii) address social issues (like gender equality and rights of the most vulnerable) and cross-sectoral investments (like improving and maintaining the ecosystem). The development assistance objectives of the World Bank fit into the medium- and longer-term recovery time frame (see appendix for more details). An initial review of the World Bank’s active portfolio focused on several of the actions listed in the emergency response plan recovery table, including strengthening measures for priority infrastructure and capacity building of government and local communities for greater climate resilience. Although most activities and investments within the existing World Bank portfolio respond to medium- and long-term needs for climate 40 UN and GoV 2016b; United Nations Vietnam 2016d. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N 43 resilience, there are opportunities to target more immediate support to the affected communities: • Projects that have livelihood components can be frontloaded and redirected to the most-affected communities. • Subprojects related to water and sanitation, irrigation, agriculture, aquaculture, and other critical sectors in affected and high-risk regions can be prioritized. • Capacity building and institutional strengthening components can be utilized to support recovery planning and community-based DRM. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 44 B A C K G R O U N D O F T H E 2 0 1 5 – 2 0 1 6 D R O U G H T A N D S A LT W AT E R I N T R U S I O N T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CHAPTER 4 Highlighting Key Challenges in Vietnam This section provides an overview of the critical issues that exacerbate the effects of drought and SWI. As part of its efforts to strengthen a proactive approach to multi- hazard DRM, the GoV will need to address existing limitations in drought and SWI preparedness, response, and recovery. It will have to confront a number of issues—for example, unsustainable water and land resource management—that could increase risks from climate hazards and even hinder basic development progress. In the face of climate change, shortcomings that drive climate vulnerability in agriculture and livelihood sectors should be seen as a growing liability for the country if unaddressed. 4.1 Institutional and Legal Issues The government of Vietnam faces significant institutional and legal challenges in addressing drought and SWI risk. Many critical functions for managing drought and other natural hazards fall across different institutions responsible for managing forests, agriculture, and water and land use. The Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MoNRE) is responsible for hydro-meteorological monitoring and forecasting and water resource management more broadly, including quantity and quality of water, and land-use planning. On the other hand, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD) leads on disaster prevention and control and on water and land-use plans for agriculture and rural development. This fragmentation and overlapping in the institutional setup are duplicated at provincial and city levels. Equally important, overlapping sectoral policies and legal frameworks often lead to confusion in implementation at all levels.41 Although Vietnam’s existing legal framework for DRM provides basic guidance on responding to a range of natural hazards, it does not adequately address slow-onset hazards such as drought and SWI. Most of the policies and legal 41 These frameworks include the Water Resources Management Law (2012), the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (2014), the Irrigation Law (being prepared), the Hydro-Meteorological Law (being prepared), the Environment Protection Law (2014), the National Climate Change Strategy (2011), and the National Disaster Prevention, Mitigation, Response and Recovery to 2020. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 45 46 HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM frameworks cover various natural hazards, including drought and SWI, and provide basic measures for response.42 But many of these measures are more appropriate for rapid-onset floods and tropical storms, with which institutions are more familiar. Despite frequent droughts, the GoV has yet to develop national drought risk policies or a drought risk reduction framework. The drought, SWI, forest fires, and desertification of 2010–2011 showed the need for drought risk reduction strategies that address the root causes of drought, not merely temporary responses that address symptoms only. The 2015–2016 drought and SWI have only intensified this need. Fragmentation and overlapping of the existing water resource legal frameworks complicate the management of water-related hazards. The Law on Water Resources (2012), the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (2014), and the pending Irrigation and Hydraulic Engineering Law have not led to effective and integrated water resource management that sustainably exploits and protects water resources. This challenge is complicated by the lack of an institution responsible for ensuring that water resources and use are managed sustainably. Currently, four ministries—MoNRE, MARD, the Ministry of Construction, and the Ministry of Industry and Trade—and their respective provincial departments are involved in water resources management, each with a sectoral focus. Notably, there is no water-monitoring system, no inventory of water resources, and no effective measures for water security or efficiency. Further, illegal and unplanned use of water by industry and agriculture has been reported in recent years.43 4.2 Balancing Structural and Nonstructural Measures Nonstructural measures have the potential to provide cost-effective solutions to drought and SWI but are underutilized compared to structural measures. Although the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control recognizes the role played by nonstructural measures in managing natural hazards, current capacity is still focused on structural measures and emergency response. Nonstructural measures could address a range of risks associated with extreme events and the impacts of climate change, but putting these measures in place has proved challenging in Vietnam. In the agriculture sector, for example, an efficient irrigation technology has 42 The measures relevant to drought and SWI include (i) adjusting the structures of plants, animals, and crops based on forecasts, warnings, and developments of drought and seawater intrusion; (ii) rationally operating reservoirs and water supply works; prioritizing supply of water for residential use; economically using water and preventing water loss; (iii) pri- oritizing supply of electricity and necessary supplies and fuels for pumping stations; and (iv) observing the level of salini- ty and appropriately regulating the closure and opening of sluices for water collection and salinity prevention in specific circumstances. 43 See “Assessment Report on Implementation of the Water Resources Law 1998 and Recommendations for Amendments, and Change in the Next Law” (GoV 2011); this report was used to prepare for the new law on water resources in 2012. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 47 been applied for coffee in the highland areas. But this has not yet been scaled up for other crops or industrial plantation due to the high investment cost and weak operation and maintenance capacity of the users. FIGURE 4.1: Technical and financial support are needed for more efficient rainwater harvesting (left). Lemongrass is a successful alternative to rice (right). Sources: vietnamnet.vn, http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/environment/77220/delta-drought--seawater-ruin-6-000ha-of-rice.html; vietnam.vnanet.vn, http://vietnam.vnanet.vn/english/mekong-delta-struggling-with-drought-saline-intrusion/225781.html. Various nonstructural measures to address drought and SWI are available, but none has been taken to scale in Vietnam: • Rainwater harvesting and soil moisture conservation have been adopted in parts of the country (figure 4.1, left), but technical assistance and financial incentives are needed to encourage households, farmers, and the private sector to implement these “no-regrets” measures more effectively. • Recycling water is not a practice or priority among individuals or the GoV. More work needs to be done to promote recycling for both nonpotable purposes (agriculture, irrigation, industrial processes, toilet flushing, and construction) and potable purposes (recharging of groundwater aquifers and augmenting of surface water reservoirs). • Water-use efficiency could mitigate the effects of drought but is not practiced in many sectors, and will require behavioral, operational, and equipment changes in cities as well as on farms and in rural areas. • Alternative crops (figure 4.1, right) require less water than rice and can be sown when drought/SWI postpones regular planting or kills existing plants,44 but their use in Vietnam remains limited. Currently, there is no effective and coherent policy 44 Vietnam News, “Lemongrass Solves Dry Season Woes for Farmers,” May 17, 2014, http://vietnamnews.vn/soci- ety/254997/lemongrass-solves-dry-season-woes-for-farmers.html#LaWOkYtzEIIGH7Xd.97. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 48 HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM or support to guide larger-scale application. The GoV, and specifically MARD, should expedite the Agricultural Restructuring Program to 2020, which calls for agricultural diversification and includes rice targets. Alternative crops will help to reduce demands on water and increase coverage by drought- and salt-tolerant plant species. Further, alternative cultivation techniques, notably alternate wetting and drying (AWD) of rice (part of the system of rice intensification; SRI), would reduce water use, increase efficiency, and reduce methane production of rice fields. More effective strategies are needed for developing and managing Vietnam’s water supply reliably and sustainably. These strategies must recognize that groundwater and surface water are separate and major sources. Groundwater must be used sustainably, and river water has the potential for sustainable development if it is naturally replenished at a rate compatible with the rate of usage. But the variable nature of river flow and transborder water usage jeopardize rivers’ ability to reliably supply freshwater—and given that hydrologic variability tends to increase with the effects of climate change, the reliability of water supply from rivers is likely to decrease. Indeed, Vietnam is already experiencing greater within-year flow variability in rivers and longer drought periods than in the past. 4.3 Hydro-meteorological and Environmental Monitoring, Forecasting, and Warning Services The hydro-meteorological monitoring, forecasting, and warning services offered by the National Centre for Hydro-meteorological Forecasting (NCHMF) are insufficient to support the needs of users who are impacted by climate hazards.45 The NCHMF’s forecast capacity and reliability for drought and SWI have improved in recent years because of investments in hydro-meteorological instruments and collaboration on data collation and analysis. But its hydro-meteorological services—in particular environmental monitoring services, forecasts of different durations (short, medium, and long term), and specificity within those forecasts for different users— have yet to meet the needs of different sectors. This failure is the result of (i) weak capacity and fragmentation of the monitoring and observation networks; (ii) inadequate computing and technical capacity to improve modeling for seasonal forecasts; (iii) lack of a robust communi¬cation system for data transmission, dissemination of forecasts, and sharing of information with stakeholders; and (iv) poor targeting and delivery of weather and climate information and hydro-meteorological services to end-users. 45 The NCHMF receives daily observations from provincial hydro-meteorological stations, and analyzes the data before releasing information to the Standing Office or Central Steering Committee for Natural Disaster Prevention and Control, under MARD, which in turn releases it to the provinces and mass media for drought preparedness and response. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 49 Ineffective use of forecast and early warning in decision making creates barriers for effective preparation and implementation of DRM. Part of the problem is that early warning information is highly technical and not user-friendly, which limits its use by government decision makers at all levels. In turn, the capacity of end-users to understand and benefit from early warnings is also limited. During the 2015–2016 drought and SWI, many farmers did not understand the seriousness of the situation and did not follow recommended actions as communicated in advisories from provincial Departments of Agriculture and Rural Development (DARDs) or local People’s Committees. For example, some farmers still sowed a third rice crop, despite warnings about drought and SWI. Vietnam has not yet established agro-meteorological services that would enable appropriate decisions and adjustments related to weather variability at the farm level. The GoV and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) have funded several studies and pilots of agro-meteorological advisory schemes in recent years, including establishment of the Centre for Agricultural Meteorology (CAMET) under the Institute of Meteorology, Hydrology and Environment (IMHEN), which is intended to be responsible for research on agro-meteorological services. But neither institution has a systematic, reliable approach to producing tailored agro-meteorological advisories for farmers in the different agro-ecological regions, which differ from one another in exposure and sensitivity (for example, population density and rice monoculture elevate sensitivity). Farmers still lack effective advisories that would enable them to make appropriate decisions about planting, harvesting, fertilizing, irrigating, and adjusting cropping patterns. The importance of such information increases significantly during extreme climate conditions such as the 2015–2016 drought and SWI. 4.4 Data and Information for Managing Drought and SWI In addition to limitations in hydro-meteorology services, there are several challenges related to data that limit efforts to manage drought, SWI, and other hazards: • Inadequate data collection, management, and publication. Currently, there is no systematic method for collecting data on drought at any level of the government (national, provincial, or local). Salinity monitoring is limited and does not contribute to analysis or figure in advice to farmers. There are currently no protocols or mandates for routine data sharing across government departments and research institutions, even though sharing could help to manage data’s expense. In addition, published materials tend to be overly complex, and would benefit from simplification and inclusion of both historical and real-time data.46 46 Data quality is problematic because historical data are often missing or inadequate. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 50 HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM • Inadequate drought indices. Current indices are inadequate for detecting the early onset or end of a drought period. No single index is enough to measure the complex interrelationships between the various parts of the hydrological cycle and their impacts; multiple vulnerability indices must be integrated to account for such factors as rainfall, temperature, soil moisture, climate change projections, sea-level rise, river water availability, and groundwater levels. In turn, these factors need collating with socioeconomic information to better anticipate impacts. This more extensive analysis would then trigger mitigation and response efforts adjusted to various drought intensities or impacts. • Inefficient methods for assessing the impact of drought or salinity. Currently, there is no systematic method for collecting data on drought and salinity levels at national, provincial, and local levels. 47Such a method would have clear benefits: it would clarify drought and SWI risk and be useful in drought disaster impact assessments, which provide the evidence base for decisions about investment and policy development. Several additional steps could be taken to improve drought and SWI assessment methods, including building DRM capacity and better engaging with the Agricultural Extension Centers at provincial and local levels, developing tools for assessing drought and SWI, and involving mass organizations’ networks of staff and volunteers in efforts at the subnational level. 4.5 Post-Disaster Financing Capacity Vietnam’s current post-disaster financing mechanisms support only short-term response and do not enable a sustainable budget for medium- and longer-term recovery. The 2013 Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control established a contingency fund for disaster response at all levels. Provisions were made later under the 2015 State Budget Law that reserved for disaster contingency 2–4 percent of the total annual budget for capital and recurrent expenditures at all levels. In addition, Circular 49 (Decision No. 49//2012/QD-TTg of November 8, 2012) requires one-time grant support to farmers and households whose crops, livestock, trees, and fisheries are affected by natural hazards or epidemics, including drought and SWI. But given the compounding effects of drought and SWI on livelihoods—a result of damage to crops, other productive assets, and related infrastructure—and given the lack of efficiency and transparency in support implementation, these funding sources rarely meet actual needs. While emergency relief is mainly funded out of state and local contingency budgets, public reconstruction and ex ante risk reduction are funded primarily through the normal capital expenditure budget. This approach does not 47 For example, teams used assessment templates for tropical storms, typhoons, and floods in their recent drought and SWI assessments because there were no specific assessment methods for drought and SWI, and no time to develop them. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 51 enable “building back better” methods in the recovery phase, through which higher upfront costs could be justified to decrease the likelihood of future damage. Even though the Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control (2013) mandated the establishment of a disaster reserve fund (DRF) in every province, these funds have not been used for the recent drought/SWI response. Only 33 out of 64 provinces have established their DRFs to date. A number of operational, financial management, resource execution, and reporting challenges make it difficult to fully channel the funds across all provinces. To increase resilience to climate change, it is critical to ensure that funds are used efficiently and reach individuals and communities promptly. Vietnam offers few specific national or provincial bank loan programs or other mechanisms for households and farmers seeking to reestablish their farming activities. Instead, farmers must borrow from commercial banks or social banks (for example, the Bank for the Poor). In some cases, banks may offer special conditions for the loans, such as extending the payment deadline, reducing interest, or even canceling the debt. But little guidance is available to help agribusiness, small and medium enterprises, the commercial sector, and industry develop water-efficient business plans. Nor are there low-interest loans to support such efforts. Compensatory programs to increase production are inadequate, and farmers in affected areas have limited access to insurance and risk transfer mechanisms. While compensatory programs do exist, they are not readily available to the poor rural households who most need them. Over the past five years, several agricultural risk reduction insurance pilots were implemented both by the government and private sector. However, challenges still remain to scale up these schemes, most notably concerning premium funding, data infrastructure, and capacity of the local insurance industry. 4.6 Divergence of DRM and CCA in Socioeconomic Development Planning Fragmented DRM and CCA policies, plans, and investments limit the GoV’s ability to manage drought, SWI, and other climate risks effectively. The most pressing issues facing the GoV are a lack of capacity, poor coordination across agencies and sectors, institutional fragmentation, and inadequate data quality and management. The GoV is not exploiting synergies between its CCA and DRM priorities. Instead, DRM and CCA issues are considered separately and managed by MARD and MoNRE respectively, with limited coordination between the ministries. An earlier attempt T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 52 HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM to set up a national platform for DRM and CCA—comprising periodic consultation meetings and a bi-yearly forum for development partners, national and international NGOs, and relevant government agencies—was discontinued in 2013.48 Despite some successes, DRM and CCA are not integrated consistently and effectively into SEDPs at national and subnational levels or within sectors. With technical and financial support from international organizations and NGOs, many provinces have had success in integrating DRM and CCA into SEDPs. These approaches have the potential to be standardized and scaled up, but challenges remain: expertise in participatory risk assessment and planning is limited, and financing for community-based DRM (through the national CBDRM program) is insufficient. As a result of weak inter-sectoral coordination in DRM planning, each sector and province develops its own plans without much consultation and coordination with others. As there is no central budget allocation, local government authorities are required to allocate their own budgets, and often they prioritize structural measures over community-based approaches. In June 2016, the MPI issued a circular (No. 05/2016/ TT-BKHDT) to guide the integration of natural disaster prevention and control content into SEDPs at commune and ward levels. The circular took effect in July 2016, and official guidelines to support its implementation are being developed by the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), MARD, and various international NGOs. An integrated data management system, including standard-compliant spatial data infrastructure and risk information platforms, is missing in all line agencies for spatial planning, infrastructure development, and operations and maintenance. A system or interconnected systems would visualize the potential risks and alternatives for safeguarding socioeconomic development. Equally important, improving government capacity at all levels in risk-sensitive land-use planning requires that good policies, guidance, and strengthened institutional agreements are in place. Both MARD and MoNRE have responsibilities for watershed and river basin management, specific hazard monitoring and mapping, and development and land-use planning. Both should respond more effectively to the land-use planning needs of local governments. 4.7 Participatory and Inclusive Approaches Participatory approaches to DRM, water resource management, and adaptive livelihoods are needed in drought- and SWI-affected areas to ensure solutions are tailored to specific circumstances. Under such participatory and decentralized approaches, decision-making power rests with the lowest administration level, in line 48 The platform would have involved MARD, MoNRE, donors, UN agencies, the Red Cross, the Vietnam Women’s Union, nongovernmental organizations, and civil society organizations. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 53 with the well-known “four-on-the spot” motto that has become standard in disaster preparedness and response.49 In addition, a greater share of the budget goes to capacity building for participatory DRM, socioeconomic planning, public awareness, and public education (to encourage lasting behavior change), and a greater share of management responsibilities rests with local communities. It is important to integrate gender equity and the needs of vulnerable groups into planning. Community-based approaches should continue to seek inclusiveness as they work to strengthen capacity for DRM, water resource management, and CCA. A growing body of evidence suggests that an increased burden falls on women and girls in drought-affected areas. For example, the time absorbed by water collection has increased as women and children (mostly girls) have had to travel greater distances to find water (figure 4.2). The heavy rainfalls and more frequent floods predicted to result from climate change also increase women’s workloads, as women will have to devote more time to collecting water and to cleaning and maintaining their houses after floods. FIGURE 4.2: Time absorbed by water collection has increased. Source: Vietnamnet.vn, http://english.vietnamnet.vn/fms/environment/151726/water-shortages-affect-land--residents-- businesses.html. 49 The “four on-the-spot motto” refers to command on the spot, manpower on the spot, means and supplies on the spot, and logistics on the spot. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 54 HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 4.8 Managing Challenges and Risks of Climate Change An integrated and holistic approach to climate-smart agriculture is essential. There is an increasingly urgent need to consider risks—not only to agriculture but also to other sectors, including water resource management, forestry, and aquaculture— in order to devise precise and tailored solutions. In seeking to prevent avoidable risks and mitigate inevitable risks, these location-specific solutions require a better understanding of different hazards’ nature, frequency, and severity. A focus shift from post-disaster crisis management to pre-disaster risk management is essential (figure 4.3). With climate change likely to increase the severity and frequency of some natural hazards, inaction will only exacerbate the adverse impacts that farmers and communities already face. FIGURE 4.3: The disaster management cycle. RISK MANAGEMENT Preparedness Prediction and early warning Mitigation and Disaster prevention Protection Recovery Impact Reconstruction assessment Recovery Response CRISIS MANAGEMENT Source: Adapted from Wilhite et al. 2000. The impact of climate change is central to the risk management decision- making process. Extreme weather events can wipe out small farmers and damage livelihoods of entire communities. Crop loss–induced market volatility can set off a chain reaction and disturb the entire system from producers to processors; it can also affect exporters, governments, and lending institutions, leading to larger socioeconomic impacts. When populations are unprepared to mitigate risk and to recover from climate-induced disasters, governments and international development agencies must occupy themselves with recovery support rather than real capacity development. It is therefore imperative that governments understand climate risks and invest in prevention, mitigation, and preparedness. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 55 Climate change has aggravated the production risks that farmers already face at the farm level because of limited natural and financial investment resources. Among the factors that damage the livelihoods of farmers, and especially small farmers, are gaps in information about good agriculture and farm management practices, limited crop diversification, poor management of water resources, and a lack of good financial tools to help them withstand the impacts of adverse weather. Farmers’ risks to climate change are seen in production losses, market and price volatility, and disturbed enabling environment (figure 4.4). FIGURE 4.4: Climate change increases risks in agriculture. Climate Change Compounds Farmers’ Risks Production Risks Climate Change Enabling Environment Market Risks Risks Source: Adapted from Manvatkar and Srivastava 2014. The agricultural supply chain is long and therefore highly sensitive, and it can be broken or damaged by weather or climate-related events. Extreme weather events—more likely because of climate change—may introduce new pests or damage storage facilities, which could result in heavy post-harvest losses. Some climate hazards could break the supply chain altogether. To ensure that links between farm and market are strong, risks of this type must be taken into account. It is critical that infrastructure be strengthened before a climate hazard hits and creates food insecurity (figure 4.5). Climate change influences the enabling environment by affecting a region’s major dependent variables, including natural resources, related regulations and policies, and governance. While the precise extent of these factors and their implications for the enabling environment cannot be measured without in-depth and T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 56 HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM FIGURE 4.5: World food price scenario in light of extreme weather events. Growing Concern | Heat, drought, and floods are pushing world food prices higher April 2008: Riots break out in Haiti February 2011: over higher food prices, following The FAO’s Food Price similar violence in Egypt, Cameroon, Index hits a record Ivory Coast and elsewhere. July 2008: July 2012: Corn prices high in nominal terms. Oil prices hit hit a record high in all-time highs in the the futures market December 2007: August 2010: Russia futures market. amid the U.S. drought Poor harvests send bans wheat exports rice prices up 40% after dry, hot weather from 2006. ravages local crops. Notes: Food Price index consists of the average of five commodity group price indexes; index not adjusted for inflation Sources: FAO; Wall Street Journal, August 10, 2012 critical analysis, it is still possible to predict some potential implications. Establishing links between climate change and production can thus be useful to policy makers and facilitate informed decision making. For example, crop diversification and the inclusion of salt-tolerant crop varieties will diminish production risk in the delta region. While risk itself might not be the sole driver of farmers’ choices, it could become a primary consideration along with expected outcome. 4.9 Climate Change and Land Use The impacts of climate change in Vietnam present a challenge for GoV responses to drought and SWI because they call for significant changes in land use. Projections of climate change effects in Vietnam include increased drought in some areas of the Mekong Delta, the Central Highlands, and South Central Vietnam;50 increased heat waves in central Vietnam; and variable rainfall and below-average river flow in the Mekong River basin. Given these projections—and given the difficulty of influencing interventions in other riparian countries—the GoV must maximize its ability to deal with both river floods and droughts, in part by optimizing water retention and storage in uplands and lowlands and by improving overall water and land-use management. Local authorities and farmers must be prepared for adverse impacts of drought and 50 See ICEM (2013a, section 4.3.4). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 57 SWI on aquaculture and agriculture in the Mekong Delta and in the Central and Highlands regions. Both short-term and medium- to long-term solutions will be required to increase communities’ adaptive capacities and resilience. Risk-informed land-use planning can mitigate natural hazards and can also promote and leverage the SEDP process. Land-use planning is especially challenging for stakeholders because of the conflicting values and demands of different land users. Risk- and climate-sensitive land-use plans should be informed by DRM and CCA policies to ensure coordinated development of settlements, infrastructure, transport, utilities and other services, cultural heritage, environmental resources, and conservation sites. The approach must shift from one that adjusts water management based on land use to one that adjusts land use based on water availability and the threat posed by SWI. In coastal zones, for example, mangrove forests contribute to coastal protection, biodiversity, and adapted livelihoods, but they are threatened by intensive shrimp farming and tourism as a consequence of poor local governance. Appropriate policies are needed to encourage diversification of agricultural systems, including financial support to smallholders, and to strengthen the supply chain. Such policies will also promote and benefit the SEDPs. Long-term adaptation plans need to be included in the existing strategies for coping with the increased drought frequency. Upstream deforestation and forest degradation are affecting water resources. Natural forest is still being cut down for industrial tree cultivation in the Central Highlands, and slash-and-burn cultivation is still practiced among some ethnic minority groups. Coffee and other plantations need irrigation during dry periods in areas where multiple hydroelectric dams control water. In the Central Highlands and the South Central Coast region, drought risks and temperatures are high and increasing. Sustainable forestry practices should be implemented to improve watershed functions and as part of overall groundwater and surface water management. Climate change poses a particular challenge for agriculture. The changing hydrological characteristics of the extreme events, and their relation to the onset, duration, and magnitude of the yearly monsoon season, will affect agricultural outputs significantly. Sea-level rise will have important implications for the availability of land for agriculture or aquaculture. Inundation and changes in the sediment and nutrient balance (caused, for example, by upstream hydropower development) and the salinity profile of coastal areas will affect productive lands in the delta region. Rice production will require use of locally developed rice cultivars that tolerate salinity, drought, and flood. Currently, agricultural systems in Vietnam are poorly equipped to deal with climate variability. Going forward, land-suitability studies and investment in agriculture diversification will be especially critical in remedying this situation. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 58 HIGHLIGHTING KEY CHALLENGES IN VIETNAM 4.10 Sustainable Water Resource Management Sustainable water resource management is a crucial challenge for the GoV in addressing the risk of drought and SWI. Vietnam has achieved lower-middle- income status, and its water use—industrial and domestic—has increased with its wealth. Moreover, water demand is expected to double in the next two decades51 as economic development continues and the pressures of population growth and climate change mount. Other challenges are posed by the growth of intensive agriculture, urban development, and tourism in water-stressed areas. This growth has created conflicting demands for often declining water resources and is driving both hydrological and agricultural drought risk—but it is hardly considered in development planning, which often proceeds without taking water availability into account, or without taking adequate measures for water management and conservation. These water resource issues are compounded by the increased and competing demand for water from power generation, fisheries and agriculture, and domestic, commercial, and industrial consumption. Vietnam’s need for water is driven partly by its high reliance on agriculture as a source of income, with rice production quotas for communes contributing to this problem. The agricultural sector is relatively resource-inefficient, and its heavy dependence on resource inputs such as water raises sustainability concerns. Vietnam has no efficient system for allocating and monitoring water for different sectors and users; use of water by industry and agriculture may be inefficient or illegal—a particular problem where critical groundwater resources are concerned. Increasing water demand, and the differing interests of water users among neighboring riparian countries, are expected to challenge regional cooperation in water management. Within the Southeast Asia subregion, Vietnam manages about 51 percent of the total area of the Red River Delta and 8 percent of the Mekong River basin. More than 60 percent of the country’s water resources are inflows from adjacent countries, making Vietnam especially sensitive to water use by these upstream neighbors. The increase in reservoir construction among these neighbors, compounded by global climate change (which is altering water availability, quality, timing, and flows) is creating additional pressure for negotiated water resource management among countries that share water sources. To sustain the water resources needed to cope with increased demands for socioeconomic development, to lessen tensions, and to avoid potential water-related conflict in the future, transboundary cooperation on the judicious use of water resources in both of Vietnam’s river basins is crucial. 51 ADB and GoV 2009. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M CHAPTER 5 Global Good Practices and Recommendations The following recommendations are based on global good practices and an initial assessment of the drought and SWI situation and needs in Vietnam. It is important to recognize that effective implementation of such measures depends on addressing bottlenecks in institutional coordination and on ensuring financing capacity (as described in section 4). Each issue would likewise benefit from more detailed country-level study to tailor approaches to national, eco-regional, and community levels and bring a multi-hazard perspective to bear on climate change impacts and extreme events. The specific focus of the recommendations is on building resilience to drought and SWI. However, they take account of the recommendations outlined in both the Drought Recovery Plan (released jointly by the GoV and the UN in October 2016) and a USAID study.52 The recommendations offered in this section are summarized below: Policies to build resilience through effective planning and implementation (Getting the big picture right for disaster risk reduction) • Integrate resilience into socioeconomic development plans • Develop integrated national and regional drought management programs • Assess and maintain information on multi-hazard risk and climate vulnerabilities Putting systems in place for smarter disaster preparedness, response, and recovery • Implement user-focused hydro-meteorological services • Develop a financial protection strategy for emergency response and recovery • Enable household-level recovery through social assistance • Shift focus from crisis management to risk management 52 For the Drought Recovery Plan, see United Nations Vietnam (2016d); for the USIAD study, see ICEM (2013b). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 59 60 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S Tools for mainstreaming resilience in development (Planning and acting for the longer term to build resilience) • Develop and implement climate-resilient water resource systems • Promote climate-resilient and climate-smart agriculture –– Adopt climate-smart agriculture practices more widely –– Improve coastal zone management and aquaculture –– Adopt an integrated approach to adaptive delta management –– Promote climate resilience in Central Highlands –– Establish effective financing mechanisms for climate change adaptation • Invest in community-based approaches • Empower vulnerable groups and populations to be resilient 5.1 Getting the Big Picture Right for Disaster Risk Reduction Global experience shows that the more specific the recommendations, the more effective the process of change or adaptation. Such recommendations take into account the barriers to adopting the new or improved technology, and they also emphasize diverse geographies, farming systems, and socioeconomic situations. Thus in seeking to improve risk management and increase resilience, the GoV must analyze exposure, sensitivity, and vulnerability first at the district level and then at the community level; and these analyses must be reviewed and revised periodically. In Vietnam, targeted preventive interventions for risk and vulnerability reduction include protecting national and community-level seed reserves, producing and stocking fodder for livestock ahead of crises, promoting water harvesting, offering conditional cash assistance in case of shocks, and providing technical, financial, and social support to farmers’ groups. For planning and implementation to be effective, the right policies have to be adopted. 5.1.1 Integrate Resilience into Socioeconomic Development Plans Mainstreaming efforts, strategies, and programs for CCA (led by MoNRE) and DRM (led by MARD) should be better coordinated, and potential synergies should T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 61 be more effectively leveraged.53 According to policy-making practice, all economic sectors and provinces must develop action plans related to CCA and DRM. The Law on Natural Disaster Prevention and Control states DRM should be mainstreamed in SEDPs.54 Guidance on CCA mainstreaming in SEDP planning was issued by MPI in 2013. This guidance was lengthy and complex, and uptake has been poor. The NGO experience of integrating DRM and CCA into SEDP at commune and district levels provides a key resource. The participatory approach promoted by Oxfam, the Red Cross, and other international NGOs should be integrated into Circular No.05/2016/TT-BKHDT (and forthcoming GoV guidelines) on mainstreaming DRM and CCA into SEDPs. These guidelines will provide an important management tool for socioeconomic development planning, and for mobilizing local resources that serve the needs of the local community. Experience shows that mainstreaming DRM and CCA in SEDPs needs to happen first in communes, where budgets are small but risk and vulnerability can be reduced. Several international NGOs supported local planning in communes and at higher administrative levels. This approach, which was implemented within community- based projects in provinces with high levels of poverty, significant climate-related vulnerabilities, and limited financial and human resources, has proved successful. For example, with support from Oxfam DRM and CCA strategies have been mainstreamed into commune- and district-level SEDPs in Tra Vinh and Ben Tre Provinces (see box 5.1). Effective mainstreaming in provincial SEDPs cannot be expected without local- level DRM and CCA plans. A concern in Tra Vinh (and elsewhere in Vietnam) is that the financial needs for CBDRM are much larger than the budget shared under the national CBDRM program. This limitation makes it necessary to access provincial resources to carry out the plans. The results in Tra Vinh have led to proposals for provincial funding to improve DRM and CCA. 53 The relevant plans and programs are the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (2008), which focuses on climate change impact assessment and development of adaptation and mitigation measures; the National Climate Change Strategy (2011) and related national Climate Change Action Plan (2012) with priority actions on adap- tation and mitigation; the National Green Growth Strategy (2012) and related national Green Growth Action Plan (2014), also with a series of prioritized actions to reduce greenhouse gas emissions; and the national CBDRM program (Decision 1002) on awareness raising and CBDRM, targeting 6,000 of the most vulnerable communes in the country. 54 The key article is Article 16: “National and local socio-economic development or sectoral development master plans and plans must have natural disaster prevention and control contents suitable to the characteristics of natural disas- ters in each region and locality in order to ensure sustainable development.” T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 62 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S BOX 5.1: Integrating DRM and CCA Into the SEDP in Tra Vinh Province Recognizing that mainstreaming DRM and CCA into commune SEDPs is important, the Tra Vinh Provincial People’s Committee (PPC) issued Decision 264, Implementation of the Action Plan of the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change in Tra Vinh, for the period 2010–2020. Oxfam supported this mainstreaming process through a local government-appointed SEDP Planning Task Force, comprising commune leaders and sector staff. Further, under the national CBDRM program, the PPC set up technical support groups at provincial, district, and commune levels. In the communes, community-based groups were formed to carry out CBDRM, including commune risk assessments. Oxfam promoted information sharing and discussions on DRM and climate change vulnerability between these two groups, which often comprised similar people. This coordination was necessary in order to accommodate specific requirements from the project, from DARD, or from the Department for Planning and Investment (DPI), as normally, people who are in charge of rolling out the CCNDPC (Central Committee for Natural disaster Prevention and Control) and SEDP are from two different departments. As a result of these interactions, climate change, disaster vulnerabilities, and risk reduction issues arising from the commune risk assessments were integrated into commune SEDPs and then district SEDPs. The Tra Vinh DPI showed a strong commitment to this effort, specifically to drafting planning guidelines for participatory SEDP that integrates DRM, CCA, and gender at commune and district levels. In 2014, with Oxfam support, the DPI used this approach to enable 19 communes in two districts (Chau Thanh and Cau Ngang) to incorporate key DRM and CCA issues into their SEDPs. The integrated planning was funded by the PPC (VND 410 million, US$18,000) and Oxfam (VND 230 million, US$10,000), which paid for equipment, documentation, staff training, and planning by the different groups. Oxfam in collaboration with DPI invested in strengthening technical capacities to carry out risk assessments and information collection. With years of effort following International Fund for Agricultural Development (IFAD) support for a market-based participatory planning method with DPI, this participatory and integrated planning approach overcame challenges and helped to achieve national strategies and meet program targets. Oxfam has taken good practice and lessons learned from Tra Vinh to Ben Tre Province, where planning guidelines were improved with closer linkages to the national CBDRM program. People in the SEDP Planning Task Groups, technical support groups, and community-based groups have benefitted from peer-to-peer support, training, and capacity building. This has helped to integrate disaster risks, climate change, and gender into SEDP planning and has helped raise awareness in local communities. The approach is being promoted by Oxfam and other development partners for replication and scaling up in other provinces (to be included in the coming circular by MPI). Source: VUFO-NGO Resource Centre Vietnam 2015. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 63 5.1.2 Develop Integrated National and Regional Drought Management Programs Vietnam could consider a dedicated program that addresses the multi-sector coordination and implementation challenges specifically related to drought. Such a program could be integrated within the broader DRM and CCA policy frameworks. Experiences from Mexico and Brazil show how drought management has been integrated effectively into government policy (see boxes 5.2 and 5.3). BOX 5.2: Mexico’s National Program Against Drought In January 2013, in response to recurrent drought that had affected most parts of Mexico since 2010, the country’s president announced the National Program Against Drought (PRONACOSE). Coordinated by the National Water Commission (CONAGUA), the program aims to develop tools for a new proactive and preventive approach for integrated drought management at the level of the 26 basin councils across the country. Its specific objectives can be summarized as follows: 1. Initiate a targeted training program on drought basic concepts and best practices in order to develop local capacity for sustainable integrated drought management in Mexico. 2. Raise awareness at the basin level and develop a host of drought prevention and mitigation measures. 3. Establish an interagency committee to coordinate and direct existing drought programs, guide and assess PRONACOSE, and fund the actions proposed by stakeholders at the basin level. 4. Involve experts and researchers in responding to the identified needs in drought management. 5. Develop a communication and outreach program that emphasizes vulnerability, participation, prevention, and the evolution of drought. Assessing implemented activities and ensuring sustainability through feedback in various phases are important elements of the framework of PRONACOSE, which is due to run till 2018. As a starting point in 2013, CONAGUA developed the Prevention and Mitigation Measures for Drought Programmes (PMPMS) for each basin council, building on global experiences. PMPMS addresses the drought characteristics and vulnerability of each basin. CONAGUA staff and researchers from 12 national institutions were trained to standardize the activities and contents of these programs, which were implemented in the second and third years (2014–2015). After evaluation of the implemented programs in 2016–2017, the programs are to be improved, updated, and implemented again from the sixth year (2018). A continued gradual implementation beyond the sixth year is expected through ownership of the programs by the basin councils. Source: Adapted from WMO and GWP 2014. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 64 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 5.1.3 Assess and Maintain Information on Multi-Hazard Risk and Climate Vulnerabilities Institutions tasked with proactive risk management must develop a comprehensive understanding of natural hazard risks and vulnerabilities, including climate change impacts. The data collected will guide not only DRM and CCA strategies but also socioeconomic development and land-use planning. These risk assessments should be regularly updated with local-level data, based on different agro-ecological regions. Platforms and tools for sharing the risk assessment results and information need to be strengthened. Effective tools leverage maps to illustrate vulnerabilities and risks and to assist in decision making. Initiatives are under way—through MARD’s Department of Natural Disaster Management and Control and through MoNRE at the central and regional levels—to improve data management and sharing. Better policies, tools, and practices are needed for interagency sharing of data on hazards and climate risks to ensure that robust information is accessible for both official decision making and for the public. Utilizing local agencies and methods familiar to the community ensures effective communication. An example of how drought information can be managed and shared is offered by the U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), a multi-agency platform that includes both monitoring and forecasting information about drought as well as data products on underlying risk for drought and related hazards (box 5.4). BOX 5.3: Transition to Proactive Drought Management Approaches in Brazil Northeast Brazil experienced a prolonged and severe drought between 2010 and 2014—the region’s worst drought crisis in 100 years. The event focused federal attention on drought management approaches, with authorities seeking to move away from ad hoc and reactive crisis response mechanisms toward a more proactive drought preparedness, planning, and management approach. There were considerable short- and long-term challenges that threatened to hamper the transition. For instance, the paucity of information available on the economic and social impacts of the drought made it difficult to draw up disaster preparedness plans. In addition, the responsibilities of different institutions for the various drought preparedness activities (e.g., vulnerability assessments, monitoring, and recovery) were ill-defined. To close these gaps, national and state dialogues were held with the aim of introducing an integrated National Drought Policy and highlighting specific priority areas for the institutions involved. Led by the Ministry of National Integration, these discussions resulted in the formalization of a National Drought Policy with three broad pillars: box continues next page T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 65 1. Monitoring and forecasting/early warning activities 2. Vulnerability/resilience and impact assessments 3. Mitigation and response planning and measures The policy was piloted within regions most affected by the drought, and concrete adaptation plans were implemented at the regional and local levels. For example, in Northeast Brazil, an online drought monitor was launched, and tailored drought preparedness plans relevant to different environments were catalyzed and put in place—e.g., for river basins, urban water supply systems, and rural agricultural systems. Based on the forecasted severity of an upcoming drought and the affected geographical areas identified by the drought monitor, different preparedness activities are triggered. Source: Gutiérrez et al. 2014. BOX 5.4: Access to Centralized Information On Drought in the United States The U.S. National Integrated Drought Information System is a one-stop information portal on drought across the United States. The site aggregates information and research related to drought; for instance, it offers data on water supply, precipitation, and soil moisture that are produced by its partners in the public and private sectors and in academia. The aggregated information is presented in a coordinated and user-friendly manner via the Drought Early Warning System. Through a mix of data, maps, and other visual tools, the NIDIS seeks to provide a comprehensive overview of the drought situation in each U.S. region and across major U.S. river basins. The severity of the drought situation (ranked D1–D4) and extent of land area affected within a region or river basin are some of the types of data supplied. The information provided by the NIDIS is useful to a wide range of stakeholders. Users are able to search for tailored drought information for their area; by entering their zip code, they gain access to drought outlook reports, forecasts, local meteorological contact information, and information on the potential impacts of the drought. Importantly, the Drought Early Warning System also warns about natural hazards arising from drought events, such as wildfires and interruptions to the local water supply. There are also links to educational material to allow the general public to boost its knowledge about drought preparedness and response. Sources: National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) website, https://www.drought.gov/drought/; NIDIS 2016. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 66 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 5.2 Putting Systems in Place for Smarter Disaster Preparedness, Response, and Recovery BOX 5.5: Building Resilient Livelihoods Through Good Risk Governance, Disaster Risk Monitoring, and Early Warning Alerts to Reduce Risk and Vulnerability Experiences in many countries reveal that institutional strengthening and good governance on risk reduction and crisis management are central to mitigating risk and the impact of natural hazards in the agriculture sector. In defining risk reduction and management measures, it is important to address different vulnerable groups such as farmers, fishers, pastoralists, and foresters. It is also critical to understand that not all farmers have the same need—for example, a small farmer has fewer resources than a farmer with large holdings; a woman farmer may have less access to financial and educational resources than a male farmer. Integrating well-defined measures into strong regulatory and developmental frameworks builds multi-layer resilience at household, community, and regional levels. Disaster risk monitoring and early warning alerts enable communities to better prepare for and quickly recover from natural hazard impacts. Information for early warning and action helps governments, organizations, and communities prevent or mitigate humanitarian crises associated with severe food insecurities and related health emergencies. Local, regional, national, and international partnerships to mobilize interactions and support should be built ahead of disasters, rather than during or after the devastation. Source: FAO 2015. 5.2.1 Implement User-Focused Hydro-meteorological Services To enable effective use of forecast and early warning for disaster preparedness and response actions, investments in both modernizing hydro-meteorological monitoring and forecast systems are required. Location-specific drought monitoring and seasonal forecasts are critical to effective drought mitigation; indeed, timely and accurate information on drought and weather is the starting point for supporting vulnerable communities. To meet this need, there must be clear operational guidelines for issuing warnings connected to a drought monitoring system. Advisories linked to well-designed preparedness plans and response protocols are an essential element of proactive risk management (box 5.5). Equally essential is the ability to get the information to the individuals who need it the most in a timely manner, and to ensure their participation and involvement. The quality of forecasts, warning services, and communication between hydro- meteorological services and end-users can be improved by integrating automated T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 67 systems at national and regional levels.55 Hydro-meteorological systems provide vital information for many productive sectors and for early warnings that save lives and reduce damage to property. In Vietnam, efforts have been made to develop a nationwide hydro-meteorological system, and the government and development partners have invested heavily in hydro- meteorological equipment. However, some of these steps have been taken without coordination among various stakeholders and without considering the technical and human capacity of Vietnam’s National Hydro-Meteorological Services to manage, operate, and maintain the equipment. Institutional reform and technical capacity building must be instigated as an essential part of modernization. Operating an integrated system is a complex and precise procedure, one that will guide the modernization process and define the operation of future hydro-meteorological services to be delivered at the national, regional, and provincial levels. Current capabilities must be strengthened to provide improved forecast and warning services to the end-user community. Toward that end, relevant financial, technical, and human resources should be assessed, along with the processes involved in effectively reaching end-users. Forecasts and monitoring networks must be connected to effective early warning systems, and services must be connected to users at the community level and in critical sectors. Translating weather and early warning information into different advisories for different users will allow more efficient use of information. It will also maximize benefits of benevolent weather conditions and alleviate the adverse impacts of hazardous weather events (see box 5.6). A mechanism to access users’ needs and obtain their feedback on the quality of forecast and early warning information can help to make the information dissemination system more efficient and increase the resilience of the key productive sectors of the economy. Systems like Brazil’s drought monitor (box 5.3) and the U.S. Drought Early Warning System (box 5.4) provide a range of climate information products through online portals. The MARD Agricultural Extension Centers should be reoriented to develop and deliver user-driven agro-meteorological information products and services. Improving linkages between the MARD Agricultural Extension Centers and MoNRE hydro-meteorological services will contribute to more effective weather information– based crop and livestock management strategies. When farmers have climatological information blended with seasonal climate forecasts before the start of the cropping season, they are better able to adapt to increased weather variability and make the most efficient use of natural resources. The result is improved crop production and food security. Moreover, agro-meteorological advisories based on short- and medium- range weather forecasts are vital for stabilizing farmers’ yields and incomes through 55 These include the observation equipment, data transmission, telecommunications infrastructure, and a modern relational database with digital data archiving. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 68 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S the management of agro-climatic resources and other inputs such as seeds, seedlings, irrigation, fertilizer, and pesticides as well as reliable market information. As explained in box 5.6, India has successfully implemented meteorological services that connect forecasts with farmer advisory services during extreme weather occurrences. BOX 5.6: Weather-Based Agricultural Advice for Farmers in India The Integrated Agro-Meteorological Advisory Service (IAAS) was introduced in India in 2007 as an iteration of the All India Radio’s 70-year-old weather bulletins for farmers. The meteorological services provide weather data and five-day forecasts. Specialists translate these into agricultural advisories that alert farmers to weather-related events likely to affect their agricultural operations, such as strong winds, low temperatures, or periods of humid weather, which can harm crops and livestock or increase the risk of disease. The advisories also provide guidance on what actions farmers should take. Field units at the agricultural universities relay the advisories to farmers in local languages using a variety of channels, including SMS messages on mobile phones, local radio and newspapers, and face-to-face advisory and extension services. The IAAS also provides national and state-level advisory bulletins to aid in planning by national and state governments and the agro-input supply industry. Farmers receiving IAAS advisories have yields that are 10–15 percent higher, and costs that are 2–5 percent lower, than farmers not receiving the advisories. These differences are largely the result of more modern agricultural production technologies and practices, better irrigation and pest/disease management, and improved post-harvest technologies. Since it started in 2007, the service has had an estimated economic impact of more than US$10 billion. Source: Venkatasubramanian et al. 2014 5.2.2 Develop a Financial Protection Strategy for Emergency Response and Recovery Developing a disaster risk financing strategy could help Vietnam improve planning for rapid response and recovery in the aftermath of a disaster. A cost-effective financial protection strategy builds on an optimal combination of financial instruments, where disaster losses can be layered and financed through a mix of instruments, including contingency budgets, national and local disaster (multi-year) reserves, contingent credit, and risk transfer instruments (including insurance). International experience shows that if large-scale agricultural insurance is implemented as a public- private partnership (see box 5.7 for an example), it can smooth agricultural income during droughts and other extreme weather events and thereby provide protection for vulnerable populations. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 69 BOX 5.7: Public-Private Partnership in Agricultural Disaster Insurance in China China has implemented many policy measures to strengthen agriculture insurance. These include (i) providing a legal foundation for the management of agriculture insurance operations; (ii) providing premium subsidies for certain crops covered by insurance; and (iii) tax benefits for agriculture insurance operators. In addition, establishment of a more mature catastrophe insurance framework is underway. An agriculture insurance disaster risk reserve system has been established as protection against the risk of major agricultural disaster. Here, insurance companies set aside reserves at a defined ratio to the agriculture insurance premium and accrued underwriting profit, to gradually establish a mechanism for dealing with agricultural disaster shocks. To improve insurance coverage and compensation standards for large-scale farmers, agricultural disaster insurance will be piloted in a total of 200 major grain-producing counties in 2017-2018. These pilot counties mainly plant rice, wheat and corn, and are located in 13 major grain- producing provinces, including the top three producers, Heilongjiang, Henan and Shandong. As post-disaster reconstruction is mostly financed by the state, the disaster insurance system is designed to ease the government’s financial burdens. In 2016, about 26 insurance companies operating at the agricultural insurance market offered about 170 types of insurance products covering main crops, cash crops, livestock, forest, fruits, vegetables, medicinal herbs and local agricultural products. In this successful public-private partnership model, from 2014–2016, the average agricultural insurance coverage amount accounted for 20 percent of agricultural output value. Moreover, 9.67 percent of direct economic loss of agricultural production was covered by the compensation amount of 26.7 billion RMB, which is seven times of government relief funds. Sources: OECD 2015; State Council of China 2017; XinhuaNet, “Chinese Counties to Pilot Agricultural Disaster Insurance,” May 31, 2017, http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2017-05/31/c_136328581.htm. Successful recovery depends on speedy mobilization and effective disbursement of funds. Inadequate disaster-financing arrangements have exacerbated adverse socioeconomic consequences of many past disasters.56 Investments in recovery planning and in tracking and monitoring mechanisms can support quick assessments of disaster impacts, funding mobilization, and effective and targeted use of funds. But in spite of considerable investment in disaster impact assessment methodology and systems, these technologies are still used inconsistently, or the technologies used may not be appropriate. Targeting of funds and humanitarian relief has proved consistently challenging for NGOs like the Red Cross. Given the potential size of the DRF in post-disaster financing at local levels, it is important to thoroughly review the policy, legal, and operational frameworks for, as well as actual operations of, the DRFs, particularly in drought-hit provinces. Benchmarking these against international 56 World Bank and GFDRR 2010. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 70 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S practices can help national and subnational governments address constraints and fully operationalize the DRFs. Risk reduction insurance schemes are another form of protection against extreme climate impacts. To be effective, large-scale agricultural insurance schemes require engagement, innovation, and action from both the public and the private sector. Options for the government to consider include weather-based/index-based insurance, which relies on weather data and remote sensing data, or area yield insurance; any relevant data should be treated as a public good and made accessible to insurers. As part of the effort to develop a legal and regulatory framework conducive to effective risk transfer, the government has critical roles to play in collecting and auditing data, as well as in managing a central data repository. Identifying and developing need-based insurance plans most beneficial to various groups (farmers, fishers, agribusinesses, etc.) ensures the overall success of such programs. Governments seeking to make disaster relief response efforts faster, more affordable, and more effective should consider providing financial support to agricultural risk insurance; examples of successful government schemes are in box 5.8 and further below in box 5.19. BOX 5.8: Natural Catastrophe Risk Insurance Schemes Protecting farmers against droughts and related natural disasters through agriculture insurance in India India’s agriculture insurance program is one of the largest in the world, covering about 20 percent of farming households. This program aims at protecting farmers against droughts as a way to reduce their vulnerability to shocks and enhance their access to credit. The government of India supports agricultural insurance through a variety of instruments, including subsidies, investment in data infrastructure, and mandatory bundling of insurance with rural credit. The World Bank has supported the design and implementation of this agriculture insurance program, in particular the expedition of the claims settlement process, through modern technology and use of insurance premium calculation methodology that better reflect risks. Source: Cooper et al. 2013. Financial protection for state governments against contingent liabilities arising from agriculture shocks in Mexico The CADENA program of Mexico is an innovative macro-level insurance program that protects state governments against contingent liabilities arising from agriculture shocks. The product is box continues next page T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 71 designed as a safety net for small-scale farmers (owning less than 20 ha and 60 Tropical Livestock Units) which covers small sum insured (about US$200 per ha). A federal premium subsidy of 80–90 percent strongly encourages state governments to opt in to the insurance program. Alternatively, if they opt out, the federal government supports 60 percent of ex post disaster relief expenses (“direct support”). As a result, 30 out of 32 states have opted in to the insurance program. States can choose the type of insurance coverage (e.g., weather-based trigger, area yield–based trigger) and fully control the insurance payouts, which can even be used to pay next year’s premiums. Municipalities distribute payouts to farmers by check, and farmers need to show proof of identification and property title. Source: De Janvry et al. 2016. 5.2.3 Enable Household-Level Recovery through Social Assistance Using social assistance programs can provide livelihood support to help people recover from disasters. Regular social assistance programs like cash transfers and public work programs buffer individuals from shocks. They also equip them to improve their livelihoods and create opportunities to build a better life for themselves and their families. In other countries, these programs and their delivery systems have been adapted successfully to make them more responsive to disasters. The GoV has begun efforts to strengthen the regular social assistance system so that it is more responsive to hazards such as droughts and floods. Under a pilot program in Can Tho City, the local social assistance delivery system is being strengthened and adapted so that it can scale up operations in response to frequent flooding and provide assistance to affected households. This program builds on both national efforts to strengthen the existing system in order to identify those most in need of assistance, and on provincial pilots that deliver cash in a predictable and transparent manner. Much of what will be implemented in Can Tho could be shared with provinces affected by drought. For example, as described in box 5.9, the ongoing social protection work in Tra Vinh province in the Mekong Delta builds upon the Can Tho flood program to focus on both flooding and drought. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 72 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S BOX 5.9: Adaptive Social Protection Feasibility Assessment for Tra Vinh Province in Mekong Delta More than 2 million people in 18 provinces in South Vietnam were affected after January 2016 by the El Niño–linked drought and saltwater intrusion crisis. The limited capacity of the government and communities to manage the impact of the adverse climate conditions, restricted by fragmented sectoral approaches and institutional arrangement, resulted in lack of policy integration and exacerbated the serious socioeconomic and environmental effects. In view of this, efforts are underway to integrate social assistance programs to provide livelihood support to affected people to help recover from climate disasters also. For example, Tra Vinh—one of the 18 provinces to declare a state of emergency during the crisis—is a pilot province of the World Bank’s Social Assistance Strengthening Project (SASSP). In collaboration with MoLISA and Tra Vinh Department of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (DOLISA), the World Bank is currently assessing the feasibility of developing adaptive social protection (ASP) in Tra Vinh. Building upon and leveraging the work already undertaken on flooding (a rapid-onset disaster) in the neighboring province of Can Tho City, the Tra Vinh engagement focuses on both flooding and drought (slow-onset disaster). The objective is to better prepare the provinces to manage household disaster risk. Specifically, it is intended to help to integrate MOLISA and social assistance into ASP and the movement toward more integrated DRM in Vietnam. Note: The example above is one of three recent activities supported by GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) to strengthen and integrate DRM into ongoing larger World Bank–supported projects. See boxes 5.12 and 5.16 for examples of the other two activities. Post-disaster assistance to support medium-term livelihood recovery could use the strengthened social assistance system as a vehicle. Since 2007, the Ministry of Labor, Invalids and Social Affairs (MoLISA) has provided emergency relief through cash and food transfers. However, global experience highlights the benefits of leveraging existing programs and/or delivery systems. Drawing on the existing social assistance system would allow the GoV to deliver assistance to affected households in a timely, coordinated, and transparent manner. This livelihood/income support could empower the most vulnerable households to better manage the risk of natural hazards and to better respond to their impacts when disasters occur. Box 5.10 describes post-disaster assistance programs in Pakistan, the Philippines, and Mexico that rely or build on existing social assistance programs to deliver aid. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 73 BOX 5.10: Robust Delivery Systems for Rapid Disaster Response in Pakistan, the Philippines, and Mexico Citizen’s Damage Compensation Program in Pakistan Following severe floods in 2010, the government of Paki¬stan established a temporary nationwide social safety net program that reached an estimated 8 million affected people. The program led to the government’s development of a social safety net disaster preparedness action plan. The program’s design allowed for its rapid implementation over a wide geographic area. Under its efficient beneficiary registration and payment distribution system, which was created in partnership with a commercial bank (United Bank Limited) and linked to the national civil registry, beneficiaries received US$204 through 2 million prepaid VISA-branded “Watan” debit cards issued for this purpose. The program was later extended to support recovery and delivered two additional payments of US$204 per recipient, totaling US$409 million per payment period. Source: Ovadiya and Costella 2013. Adapting the existing Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) for Disaster Response in the Philippines In the three months following Super Typhoon Yolanda, which struck in November 2013, the government of the Philippines released US$12.5 million of unconditional cash transfers to existing beneficiaries of the Pantawid Pamiliya CCT program. Following pre-agreed procedures, the government waived the requirement that beneficiaries comply with the conditions of the CCT program in order to receive their payment; the waiver was in place for three months following the disaster. Further, the CCT program and the national household targeting system (Listahanan) were leveraged by the World Food Program and UNICEF, which topped up benefit amounts to beneficiary households in affected areas with emergency cash transfers. Source: Bowen, 2015. Mexico’s Temporary Employment Program (PET) Mexico’s Temporary Employment Program (Programa de Empleo Temporal [PET]) is a social safety net program that provides temporary employment in public works to marginalized groups and those whose livelihoods have been affected by natural disasters. The Immediate Temporary Employment Program (Programa de Empleo Temporal Inmediato [PETi]) is an emergency financing mechanism that was added to PET in 2003 to ensure PET’s timely and efficient functioning in response to natural disasters. It requires that all PET implementing ministries allocate a percentage (about 20 percent) of PET funding to a contingency budget. If necessary, additional funds from PET’s annual budget can be channeled through PETi. If this funding is also not adequate to support participation in the cash-for-work scheme for all people in need, Mexico’s Fund for Natural Disasters (FONDEN) can also provide supplementary resources to PET. Sources: World Bank 2013b; Ovadiya and Costella 2013. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 74 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S Public works programs are also a viable social assistance instrument for post- disaster preparedness and response in Vietnam. These programs have been used in a number of countries to mitigate disaster risk, rehabilitate community infrastructure, and contribute to household recovery (see box 5.10 for an example from Mexico). They could be used in the same way in Vietnam; Decree No. 61/2015 lists activities related to “disaster prevention, response and climate change” among eligible projects and activities for public employment. By linking emergency assistance with the National Target Programs on Rural Development (NTP-NRD) and Sustainable Poverty Reduction (NTP-SPR), the GoV could help communities and households become more resilient. As box 5.11 suggests, such programs can be extensions of longer-term rural development programs designed to strengthen community resilience, rather than a response to disaster. Coordination among relevant agencies and their programs should be strengthened in order to provide an enabling environment for effective implementation of post-disaster social assistance. The primary agencies concerned with post-disaster social assistance include MoLISA (for social protection), MARD (for DRM), and MoNRE (for CCA). Institutionally, better coordination among the agencies will improve their ability to manage disaster risk effectively and efficiently, and by extension, to create an enabling environment for post-disaster social assistance implementation. BOX 5.11: Simultaneous Support for Disaster Preparedness/Resilience and Livelihoods of Rural Poor Under India’s Guaranteed Part-Time Rural Employment Public work programs are useful in securing the livelihoods of the rural poor, but they are usually implemented as a short-term response to a disaster rather than for longer-term preparedness and resilience. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act of 2005 implemented by the government of India aims to enhance livelihood security of rural households and to create public assets in rural areas, including roads and water tanks as well as infrastructure for water harvesting, drought relief, and flood control. Designed to help secure the livelihoods of the rural poor during lean periods, the program aims to simultaneously strengthen community resilience to disasters through community asset and infrastructure enhancement. Partnerships exist between the central and state governments and local NGOs, who develop and evaluate the program. Though a good model, efficient and effective implementation at the last mile is critical for the success of such programs. Source: Indian Ministry of Rural Development, “Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act 2015,” http:// nrega.nic.in/netnrega/home.aspx. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 75 5.2.4 Shift Focus from Crisis Management to Risk Management Effective last-mile delivery of support requires good risk and vulnerability analysis to target local areas and populations. Risks are sector and location specific and are compounded by socioeconomic and demographic factors. The exposure, sensitivity, and vulnerability of different eco-regions have to be analyzed deeply to produce the tailored risk mitigation and prevention solutions that are required for a move from post-disaster crisis management to pre-disaster risk management (figure 4.3). Separation and layering of risks allows for effective risk mitigation, prevention, and coping; this point is discussed further in section 5.3.2.1 and illustrated in figure 5.1. 5.3 Planning and Acting for the Longer Term to Build Resilience 5.3.1 Develop and Implement Climate-Resilient Water Resource Systems In deltas, river basins, and other ecosystems, more effort is needed to coordinate integrated water resources management across the water, energy, and agriculture sectors. In these complex environments, the interlinked impacts of development from various sectors and the efficacy of different investments in the face of climate change and dynamic upstream development remain poorly understood. Vietnam needs to implement comprehensive water-use policies that maximize efficiency between and within sectors and that are appropriate at the river basin or watershed level across the country. To optimize efficiency within sectors, policy interventions should encourage adoption of water-saving and soil moisture technologies. Water pricing policies that incentivize more sustainable water usage at household and production scales would fill the most urgent gaps. Indeed, policy tools should facilitate the “waterproofing” of economies: through land use planning, DRM, engagement of local people, and other interventions, policies should seek to reduce the socioeconomic impacts of extreme weather events and rainfall variability and to manage uncertainty in the future. Each river basin should have an integrated planning framework and a multi- sectoral decision support system. This integrated, multi-sector approach would maximize the economic benefit of water usage in various sectors by balancing the overall annual and monthly demand for and supply of water against water allocation in each subbasin over space and time. Such a system would support the analysis and assessment of various development options based on (i) cost, (ii) water demand, (iii) water availability, (iv) economic impacts, (v) long-term consistency with development T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 76 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S goals and trends in various sectors, and (vi) sustainable use of the water resources base. It would include two components: The first is a knowledge base, which could be used and shared by various sectors and which would encompass all available data for water demands and uses (namely agriculture, domestic, industrial, power generation, rural water supply, and the environment), options for development of water supply, and the hydrological system. The second component is a model for determining the best possible combination of options to satisfy all demands by maximizing the total net economic benefit under a set of assumptions about water demands, constraints, and future scenarios. To ensure reliable water supply in the future, increased volumes for lowland reservoirs are essential. Given that large reservoir volumes are less sensitive to the effects of climate change than small volumes, providing robust bulk supply infrastructure will entail building reservoirs that are as large as possible within engineering, environmental, social, and economic constraints. It will also entail managing sedimentation from the earliest stages of dam and reservoir projects, especially in the lowland reservoirs in the deltas, because storage loss due to sedimentation is the greatest threat to water dams and reservoirs. New design and construction should facilitate sedimentation management, and existing facilities may need to be retrofitted. In addition, underground aquifers can be recharged by using check dams to prevent water and soil runoff, and cisterns to collect and divert rainwater from rooftops to dry wells. In Thrissur district of Kerala state in India, about 100,000 people have benefited since 200957 from such an initiative by the government and NGOs. Similar efforts are underway in the neighboring state of Karnataka through the World Bank assisted Watershed Development Project.58 In the first phase, also known as Sujala, about 230,000 farmers benefited from increased crop yields and household incomes. The second phase, initiated in 2013, partly converges with the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act scheme (see box 5.11) to provide rural employment. It is expected to benefit about 160,000 farmer households in dry tracks across 7 districts by improving watershed management and promoting rainwater harvesting and groundwater recharge. To maximize the benefits from existing irrigation infrastructure, it is critically important to use climate-smart irrigation and drainage systems with sustainable operation and maintenance. Water-efficient irrigation technologies (such as drip and sprinkler irrigation) should be encouraged and included in the provincial and basin- wide plans for water resources development and management. Such applications should be coupled with climate-smart agricultural measures, which rely on proper 57 Citylab.com, “What India Can Teach the Rest of the World about Rainwater Conservation,” December 17, 2015,http://www.citylab.com/weather/2015/12/rainwater-conservation-india-kerala-water-roof/420591/ 58 World Bank 2013c. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 77 management of soil, fertilizers, soil moisture conservation, and improved seedlings and varieties to help ensure sustainable agriculture production. Improving the sustainability of urban and rural water supply will more generally require province- and basin-wide integrated planning in addition to new technical and institutional solutions. Coastal cities such as Ho Chi Minh City and Da Nang are already seeing greater water security risks due to lower river flows and the resulting increases in the extent of fluvial saline intrusion. Local communities affected by water insecurity need to become more involved in decision making about water management. One possibility for increasing community-level involvement is to set up local water management committees similar to the Water User Cooperative (WUC) that was formed as a result of a dynamic partnership between the government, an international NGO, and local communities, which enabled farmers in Thanh Hoa Province in the North Central Coast region of Vietnam to successfully manage their water resources.59 Set up by the Cam Phu Commune as part of the Thai Long Dam Project, the WUC mobilized local farmers to actively participate and manage the local resources in a sustainable manner, leading to increased government responsiveness and accountability. The farmers were fully involved in decision making regarding water distribution plans and schedules, and in resolving conflicts. The WUC benefited people at multiple levels—for example, by promoting better access to irrigation and drinking water through controlled water supply. This, in turn, reduced the work load of men, women, and children, as farm activities became easier and collection of water for domestic use became less time-consuming. Farmers gained better incomes due to increased crop yields, crop diversification, and livestock and fish farming. In China, Water User Associations (WUAs) were promoted as part of a comprehensive development program (see box 5.18 further below). It is important that people understand the availability of and threats to water resources, especially for agricultural production. In particular, the linkage between water scarcity and climate change needs to be better understood by local people, as well as by Agricultural Extension Center staff and local DARD and DoNRE officials. Provinces can catalyze reforms by developing an integrated water resource management plan. The case study of Ninh Thuan in box 5.12 explains the approach taken to improve the province’s water resources planning and management practices. Other drought-affected and vulnerable provinces could follow a similar process: • Action 1: Transform data into information for basic analysis and planning purposes. 59 See Sinh (2002). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 78 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S • Action 2: Institute flow metering in water sources and demand areas—“if you don’t measure it, you can’t manage it.” • Action 3: Conduct economic and financial analysis of all water-related activities to assess water productivity. • Action 4: Conduct water systems analysis to serve as a modern planning tool. BOX 5.12: Water Balance Assessment in Ninh Thuan Province in South Central Vietnam To improve the institutional framework and technical capabilities for better drought preparedness in Ninh Thuan province, and to assess gaps and opportunities for better Water Resources Management (WRM), a preliminary assessment of the water resources availability was conducted in the Dinh river basin in 2015–2016. In view of DARD’s (Department of Agriculture and Rural Development) 2020-2030 Agriculture Development Plan pending GoV approval for new reservoir construction in the province, new water supply alternatives have to be identified to make Ninh Thuan water supply systems more resilient to extreme weather conditions. In October 2016, the WPP (Water Partnership Program) approved a Work Plan to enhance drought/climate resilience with full technical support from GoV counterparts acting at national and provincial levels, including NAWAPI (National Center for Water Resources Planning and Investigation). The program has undertaken water system analysis in the entire Dinh River Basin. It addresses water use across sectors (hydropower, irrigation, urban/rural water supply and aquaculture) and covers both surface water and groundwater sources. Keeping environmental constraints and minimum supply cost in mind, the ultimate objectives are to determine the optimal size of reservoirs (present and future) and the optimal level of groundwater abstractions to meet current and future demands. Source: Diaz and Rodriguez 2016. Finally, there is a need for a longer-term vision for integrated water resource management. The current National Water Resources Strategy is only through 2020. The plan and vision should address the longer term, perhaps 30 to 50 years. It should also seek to maximize efficiency between and within sectors.60 5.3.2 Promote Climate-Resilient and Climate-Smart Agriculture Existing agricultural systems should be reviewed, and appropriate, sustainable, natural resource–based farming systems and practices should be promoted. The current emphasis on rice production must give way to more diversified agriculture and cropping patterns. In some cases, farmers are already adapting to climate 60 See the World Bank (2016b) water policy note. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 79 impacts by planting resilient crop varieties, changing planting dates, and adapting farming practices to a shorter growing season, as well as by using water-harvesting techniques and soil moisture conservation. But farmers still face many barriers to adaptation, often related to policy shortcomings, resource constraints, and lack of technologies and information. 5.3.2.1 Adopt Climate-Smart Agriculture Practices More Widely Climate-smart agriculture leverages good agricultural practices (GAP) and integrates the three dimensions of sustainable development (economic, social, and environmental) by jointly addressing food security and climate challenges. While rice remains Vietnam’s dominant food staple, its importance in the national economy and diet is declining; approaches that enable flexible land-use planning based on agro-ecological suitability, likely climate change impact, and risks and profitability to the producers should be considered going forward. The current policies that encourage rice production in marginal areas (and other, related incentives) should be revisited. In addition, efforts should be made to identify the exposure, sensitivity, and vulnerability of different eco-regions and take location-specific measures to meet their needs. Global experiences show that an enabling environment for managing risk in agriculture can be created by cumulatively layering risks according to the severity and probability of occurrence. As seen in figure 5.1, risk mitigation can be achieved in layer 1, where farmers manage risks as part of their regular business strategies (improving water-holding capacity of soil, introducing high-yielding seed varieties, etc.). In layer 2, the risks are of medium impact (hail damage, market price variation, etc.) and can be managed through market instruments (weather insurance, farmers’ cooperatives). Risk transfer occurs here, in addition to risk mitigation from layer 1. In layer 3, risks are rare, extremely severe, and beyond the farmer’s control (severe drought, floods, disease outbreak, etc.); they require government and supporting institutions to intervene and help with recovery. Risk coping occurs in this layer. By identifying and layering risks based on their severity, the government can create an enabling environment where production and market events are more efficient. Periodic review of these risks and layers is necessary for effective deployment. A number of short-, medium-, and long-term solutions for increasing communities’ adaptive capacities and resilience are available; they make use of early warning and climate information services, “designer” crop varieties, adjustments to cropping calendars and cropping intensities, proper management of natural resources (water, soils, aquaculture and crops), diversification (rice-shrimp, salt- and drought-tolerant fruit trees; grass/fodder and vegetable intercropping; multi-species fish culture and livestock), and improved information and knowledge dissemination. Beyond the T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 80 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S farm, creating better linkages to the market strengthens the value chain and enables better risk management (figure 5.2). FIGURE 5.1: Layering of risks according to the probability and severity of occurrence creates an enabling environment for better climate risk management. RISK LAYERING PROBABILITY LAYER 3 Very Low Frequency, LAYER 2 Very High Losses Low Frequency, Risk Mitigation Medium Losses + Risk Transfer LAYER 1 Risk Mitigation + Risk Coping High Frequency, + Risk Transfer Low Losses Risk Mitigation SEVERITY Source: World Bank Agricultural Risk Management Team, Agricultural Sector Risk Management Brochure, 2012 Value chains should be strengthened to create better linkages between farm and market that in turn enable better risk management. Farm-to-market links depend on supply chains (figure 5.2), which are sensitive to climate risks. Good storage facilities not only limit supply chain–associated risks but also ensure the producer is not under pressure to sell immediately. Storage units also cut the supply chain short, which may increase the producer’s economic advantage. Government- sponsored fair-price produce markets, along with value addition through agro- processing, can help to strengthen farm-to-market links. Improved value chains at all levels are critical to building strong links. Overall, the GoV should seek to reduce risks related to production and markets as well as those related to policy failure. FIGURE 5.2: Government-sponsored storage units and fair-price produce markets can strengthen community resilience. Strong Farm to Market Links Improve Value Chain Farmer Trader Commission Wholesaler Retailer Consumer Agent Source: Adapted from Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency 2001 T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 81 The government can facilitate the adoption of climate-smart agricultural practices through improved policies, programs, and investments, including crop and livestock insurance, social safety nets, integrated water resource management and markets, and development and dissemination of drought-, heat-, saline-, and flood- tolerant crops. The adoption of GAP—especially use of technologies to save water and reduce greenhouse gas emissions—should be compulsory rather than voluntary. Farmers should diversify their crops and move to crops that require less water; and in saline-intruded areas, farmers should gradually transition from freshwater-dependent aquaculture to sustainable brackish water aquaculture. Government and public sectors must provide strategic support if such climate- smart measures are to be implemented. Specifically, MARD needs to take the following steps in a cost-effective, market-efficient manner: 1. Develop financing programs and incentive policies that encourage small farmers to adopt GAP, starting from major crops, such as rice, coffee, and vegetables; 2. Restructure the ministry’s public research and extension to focus on drought- and saline-resilient crops; 3. Review and update land use regularly; 4. Allow and facilitate transition from freshwater crops to sustainable brackish water aquaculture in coastal areas; and 5. Support a watershed development approach and improve on-farm water use efficiency. In the short term, MARD and provinces might adjust their ongoing projects and programs to entail the compulsory adoption of some minimum GAP. In the medium term (three to five years), the ongoing Agricultural Restructuring Program should 1. Devote more resources to research, extension, and farmer training that focus on developing drought- and saline-resilient crops (with priority given to the Mekong Delta and Central Highland regions) 2. Develop additional infrastructure and financing programs (which will be linked to the extension programs) to enable small farmers to adopt newly recommended farming systems and cropping structures 3. Build capacity to allow small farmers to link with agribusinesses along value chains to improve their marketability and profitability T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 82 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S Finally, in the long term (5 to 10 years), the central and provincial governments should revisit the existing food security strategy and rice land policy to allow conversion of rice lands to brackish water aquaculture in areas less suitable and less economically viable for rice. The GoV needs support in strengthening climate information through various means: better forecasting and early warning systems, better water resource management and use in irrigated areas, water harvesting and soil water conservation in dryland farming, mapping of vulnerable areas, and development and implementation of region-specific contingency plans based on vulnerability and risk assessments. Box 5.13 gives an example of how farmers in Thailand benefited from the government’s policy to restrict winter dry-season rice cultivation as an emergency response to climate disaster. Integrating and implementing the right policies and procedures will support the conversion of more communes into climate-smart villages (CSVs; see box 5.14), especially in high-risk areas that are likely to suffer most from climate change. BOX 5.13: Restricting Rice Production and Sales as Emergency Response in Thailand Thailand’s rice harvest dipped to its lowest in nine years in 2016 due to El Niño–caused water shortages. The following measures were taken to manage the water crisis: 1. A shift from rice to corn production: The government worked with private associations, including the Thai Feed Mills Association, the Thai Seed Trade Association, and the Bank for Agriculture and Agricultural Cooperatives (BAAC), to encourage farmers in irrigated areas to shift from marketing year (MY) 2016/17 off-season rice production to corn production. Close to 0.3 million ha of farmland located in the northern and northeastern regions was targeted to reduce off-season rice supply by 1.25 million metric tons (MT) and increase corn production by 1.4 million MT. Participating farmers are eligible for a loan of B 4, 000 per rai (US$714 per ha) from the BAAC. 2. Stabilization of domestic rice prices: In November 2016, the cabinet approved the On-Farm Rice Pledging Program for fragrant and glutinous rice (for farmers) and the Interest-Rate Subsidy Program (for millers/traders) with the aim of keeping about half the newly harvested fragrant and white rice off the market in order to stabilize domestic prices. Participating farmers receive a direct payment of B 13,000 per MT of pledged fragrant rice (US$371 per MT). Nonparticipating farmers receive a direct payment of B 2,000 per MT (US$57 per MT). The restriction on winter dry-season rice cultivation was lifted following abundant rainfall in early 2017, which replenished major reservoirs supplying the agriculture sector and resulted in a remarkable recovery in rice crop acreage (estimated increase of 975,000 ha) and vegetative vigor compared to 2016. Sources: USDA Foreign Agricultural Service 2017; GAIN 2016, 2017. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 83 BOX 5.14: Climate-Smart Villages as an Integrated Community-Based Approach to Resilience Leveraging lessons learned from global experiences is critical in putting the right plans and procedures in place to strengthen resilience to climate risk. Experiences of national and international agencies such as ICAR, CCAFS-CGIAR, and CIMMYT show that communities are able to build climate-smart villages (CSVs) when they follow good farm management practices based on weather forecasts; use water, nutrients, and energy in an integrated and efficient manner; and are empowered by knowledge and gender equality. In such successful communities, there is support for farmers’ groups and cooperatives, as well as protection and inclusion of women, youth, and vulnerable groups. Strong links between stakeholders at all levels promote local adaptation of good practices. These CSVs are fully equipped for resilience to climate change. In Vietnam, Ma, My Loi, and Tra Hat villages—located in provinces in the northern (Yen Bai), central (Ha Tinh), and southern (Bac Lieu) regions, respectively—were chosen to build CSVs in 2015.a Ma village in Yen Bai province was recently showcased as a successful CSV to encourage further integration of agricultural technologies to enhance adaptive capacity and build resilient livelihoods.b The success of these CSVs calls for the involvement of more communities and adoption across the country. Following good practices enables communities to build CSVs equipped for resilience to climate change Weather Water Carbon Nutrient Energy Knowledge Smart Smart Smart Smart Smart Smart Weather Direct-seeded No-tillage, SSNM, No-tillage, ICTs, gender forecasts, rice, maize- residue nutrient expert residue empowerment, index-based based system, management decision management, capacity insurance, raised beds, legumes support tool DSR development seeds for precision land Green Seeker, precision women and needs, crop leveling, AWD legume water youth focus diversification, integration management agro-forestry Courtesy: M. L. Jat, CIMMYT. AWD = alternate wetting and drying; SSNM = site-specific nutrient management; DSR = AWD = alternate wetting and drying; SSNM = site-specific nutrient management; DSR = direct-seeded rice; ICT = information and communication technology a. CCAFS-CGIAR, “Climate Smart Villages,” https://ccafs.cgiar.org/climate-smart-villages#.WGfOvFMrLIX. b. CCAFS-CGIAR, “New Climate-Smart Village in Vietnam Tackling Climate Change in Agriculture,” February 2016, https:// ccafs.cgiar.org/news/media-centre/press-releases/climate-smart-village-yen-bai-province-launch-technology-tackle#. WGfMmVMrLIX. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 84 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 5.3.2.2 Improve Coastal Zone Management and Aquaculture Central and provincial governments should adopt an inter-sectoral spatial planning (ISP) approach. ISPs improve effectiveness in coastal zone and marine management and reduce conflicts in planning among sectors. The current system has a range of problems: responsibilities for coastal zone planning are spread across different sectors; planners and policy makers operate on the basis of limited, imprecise, or out-of-date data; different sectors in the same province often compete with one another, which leads to duplicative investments and inconsistent (or conflicting) plans and approaches; and anticipated private investments are often not reflected in government plans. MARD and provinces should take the following steps to improve coastal zone and marine management: 1. Adopt an ISP approach by establishing and maintaining trained ISP teams at provincial and district levels and conducting ISP for all coastal districts and communes. Doing so will help to eliminate overlaps and enhance multi-sectoral coordination based on different sectors’ present and future demands and the need for sustainable management of land and water resources. 2. Stop treating SWI as an enemy, and stop unnecessary investments to fight and protect rice against saline intrusion in areas where rice production is no longer economically viable. 3. Facilitate the gradual transition to a brackish water economy in drought- and saline-intruded areas. 4. Adopt sustainable brackish water/marine aquaculture and co-management of near-shore capture fisheries by scaling up GAP that are already available in the regions. In the short term, MARD and the provinces should adjust their ongoing coastal projects and programs to scale up GAP; in particular, wastewater treatments and biosecurity standards to better control shrimp disease should be made compulsory. In the medium term (three to five years), MARD and the provinces should modify coastal dikes and sluice gates (originally constructed to protect freshwater rice) to develop sustainable brackish water aquaculture, including farming of shrimp-mangrove and eco-farming (box 5.15), rice-shrimp, and polyculture. Finally, in the long term (5–10 years), the central and provincial governments should formally move from fragmented sectoral planning to ISP, and should build capacity at all levels to empower local communities in sustainable co-management of coastal and marine resources. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 85 BOX 5.15: Management of Aquatic Farm Ecosystems in Coastal Regions of Bangladesh Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change. Global sea-level rises, coupled with more frequent and intense cyclones, monsoonal flooding, rising temperatures, and increased salinity, have led to water and food security challenges in the country’s coastal southwest. The International Water Management Institute started a project in 2012 to improve land, water, and ecosystem management, and to enhance the productivity and diversity of fish farms in villages along the southwest coast. The project adopted a participatory approach to engage local farmers in the process, and comprised the following activities: • Participatory forums involving 50 farmers in a weekly Farmers Field School to evaluate new climate-smart farming systems, water management, and strategies to cope with climate change • The identification of crops that could be grown on canal embankments and in increasingly saline environments, to reduce dependency on single-crop farming and improve household nutrition • The identification and creation of canal system types that produce the most fish, and utilization of vertical horticulture systems to improve farming productivity The better management of water and local aquatic farm ecosystems is a key step in helping communities in Bangladesh’s coastal southwest adapt to the changing climate and salinity conditions. Source: IISD 2013. 5.3.2.3 Adopt an Integrated Approach to Adaptive Delta Management The complexity of issues in the Mekong Delta necessitates an integrated approach to its management and development. The Mekong Delta covers a range of sectors (including agriculture, urban, energy, and environment) and divergent institutional and policy landscapes; it also confronts problems at various temporal scales, from daily operational issues to long-term climate change concerns. But in this complex delta environment, the impacts of alternate development options on various sectors remain poorly understood. Nor is it clear what investments will be most effective in the face of climate change and dynamic upstream development. Delta planners and decision makers face important strategic decisions, across sectors, on the future direction and nature of development amid an uncertain future that partly lies outside their control. One way to simplify this complexity is to take an area-based (or spatial) approach that emphasizes water resources management and appropriate land use. In light of the 2015–2016 drought and SWI crisis, this approach must begin with better T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 86 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S coordination across institutions. In particular, the following medium- and long-term measures should continue to be prioritized: 1. The current institutional landscape—in which planning and sectoral implementation roles are spread across several ministries and agencies—should be simplified. Using the new pilot regulation for regional coordination, the GoV should address fragmented planning and decision making by developing institutional mechanisms for overseeing delta-wide plans and investments. 2. Planning at the inter-sectoral, interprovincial, and interministerial levels should be strengthened. Currently, sectoral plans at provincial and regional levels are not reconciled; nor are they proof-tested against possible development/climate change scenarios to ensure they are robust. 3. Information systems and mechanisms should be developed to enhance data sharing, scenario analysis, research collaboration, and decision support. In the fragmented institutional environment, it is not surprising that data, information, and analysis are also fragmented across various research agencies (often affiliated with key sectoral ministries), with no protocols for data sharing and very limited collaboration. Promote Climate Resilience in Central Highlands 5.3.2.4 Water scarcity, soil erosion, and monoculture-related yield loss are major issues in the Central Highlands, and are becoming more pressing in the face of climate change. The Central Highlands region—where Robusta coffee plantations are well established and plantations of rubber, black pepper, cashew, and cassava are expanding—is already affected by severe drought (table 2.1). Predicted climate shifts are expected to raise the vulnerability level of these crops, according to a 2013 USAID study61 (see section 2.3 for more details). The problems can be laid out as follows: 1. By 2050, increased water scarcity, higher temperatures, and changing land use are expected to have major impacts on the cultivation of rubber, coffee, and cassava. 2. High incidence of storms and high rainfall will lead to more floods and flash floods, making crops and livelihoods more vulnerable. 3. In particular, increase in rainfall and storm frequency will increase soil erosion on the slopes, where cassava and maize culture is currently expanding. 4. Higher temperatures will affect yield in addition to increasing demand for more water to irrigate rice and coffee. Higher temperature will also result in an altitude 61 ICEM 2013b. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 87 shift for rubber, cassava, and coffee cultivation, affecting areas that are currently expanding. 5. Area expansion and forest encroachment—due to the changing land use for the cultivation of upland rice, coffee, and rubber—will indirectly affect the livestock, aquaculture, and fisheries sectors. It is important to identify adaptation measures at crop, farm, and community levels. Crops’ vulnerability to climate change (illustrated in figure 2.3) depends on their exposure and sensitivity to the risk, and varies between species. Given the risks that the Central Highlands are exposed to, resilient and sustainable cropping systems have to be built with appropriate adaptations now. Adaptation options, some of which are already in use in Vietnam, include the following: 1. At crop level. Use of stress-tolerant and early maturing varieties (specifically for coffee, maize, and cassava); crop diversification and sustainable cultivation using agro-forestry systems and tolerant crops like rubber, cashew, and pepper; altitude shift for coffee; alternative cropping (rubber instead of rice), SRI (if rice cultivation cannot be avoided); crop rotation and conservation agriculture; inter-cropping with legumes 2. At farm level. Mulching and cover-cropping; soil-erosion control on slopes; shift to organic/green manure; shade trees in coffee plantations; rainwater harvesting and other water saving techniques; shift in cropping calendar to avoid peak events 3. At community level. Involvement of local people in building community assets by adopting measures for soil erosion control in slopes (through drainage canals, rainwater capturing reservoirs, flood protection infrastructure); measures to address deforestation, groundwater overexploitation, and land degradation (as commercial coffee plantations take over natural forests); and measures to conserve water and soil (to avoid the excessive and wasteful irrigation currently practiced on coffee plantations). Box 5.16 describes an ongoing activity to promote sustainable agriculture. A component of the Vietnam Sustainable Agriculture Transformation Project (VnSAT), the program’s objective is to help small scale coffee farmers in the Central Highlands to increase their income while simultaneously reducing negative environmental impacts. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 88 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S BOX 5.16: Supporting Sustainable Coffee Production and Rejuvenation in Central Highlands Climate change induced higher temperatures and frequent dry spells have significantly affected coffee yields in the Central Highlands. To facilitate a sustainable transformation in coffee production to increase farmers’ income while reducing negative environmental impacts, a component of VnSAT is underway. A total of 62,000 small-scale coffee plantations were selected in five target provinces in Central Highlands to promote good farm management practices, increase adoption of water saving technologies and tree management, and train farmer organizations and cooperatives. The objective is to integrate DRM into all these activities while helping provinces to improve coffee production. In 2016, VnSAT provided training on “three reductions, three gains” (3R3G) and “one must, five reductions” (1M5R) cultivation techniques. 3R3G refers to reduction in 3 inputs (seed, chemicals and water) and gains in 3 outputs (productivity, quality and economic efficiency). 1M5R refers to use of registered seeds and reductions in 5 inputs – seed, chemical fertilizer, pesticide, water use and post-harvest losses. In May 2017, an assessment of coffee planters that were provided with training revealed that Dak Lak and Lam Dong provinces achieved positive results in general though some criteria were not met. It is also important for farmers to have access to information on market price fluctuations to build confidence in future markets, and to prevent abandonment of established crops in favor of crops that seem more lucrative. For example, when cashew prices dropped, some farmers in the region replaced cashew with coffee, rubber, or fruit trees.62 When cashew prices stabilized, but coffee and fruit plantations were hit by drought, these farmers were particularly affected. 5.3.2.5 Establish Effective Financing Mechanisms for Climate Change Adaptation Mobilizing resources to address the increasing demands of climate change and green growth will require continued proactive engagement from the GoV to improve the scale and quality of financing. The government has already adopted a number of programs and initiatives, chief among them the National Target Program to Respond to Climate Change (NTP-RCC); this 10-year, two-phase program culminated at the end of 2015 and focused on scientific analysis, capacity building, and development of sector and provincial climate change action plans. While this program has helped to mainstream climate change within line ministries and provinces, there are opportunities to further enhance both the level and efficiency of public investment. The recent Climate Public Expenditure and Investment Review (CPEIR) notes that in 2012–2013, about 69 percent of the government’s climate change response expenditures from 62 Viet Nam News, “Cashew Prices Reach Highest in a Decade,” March 22, 2016, http://vietnamnews.vn/econo- my/294085/cashew-prices-reach-highest-in-a-decade.html#sY50pwYWIo1ycCBc.97 T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 89 the five key climate-relevant line ministries were from domestic sources, with a vast majority directed toward adaptation.63 The CPEIR indicates that the GoV’s financial commitment to a firm climate change response is ongoing, despite a tightening fiscal environment. But it also finds that the magnitude, targeting, and effectiveness of public financing is not yet sufficient to address Vietnam’s key climate-induced development challenges and to promote a greener and higher quality of growth. Vietnam’s Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) takes into account this challenge, with resource mobilization for adaptation a recognized priority. The GoV is working toward accessing additional international finance for climate change response and green growth projects from official development assistance, targeted climate finance initiatives such as the Green Climate Fund, and the private sector. 5.3.3 Invest in Community-Based Approaches Institutionalizing community-based approaches is essential for sustainable development. Lessons learned through carrying out successive poverty reduction programs and from Vietnam’s nascent national CBDRM program show that participatory approaches strengthen community resilience and promote sustainable development. Local people in the communes and wards often provide the most legitimate, informed, and reliable sources of information about their locality and their own priorities. People on the ground benefit more from both national and local-level strategies and investments when the local government adopts a more participatory approach and involves local people in risk assessment and disaster preparedness, and when it integrates disaster risk and climate change into local socio-development planning. For DRM, CCA, livelihood security, and integrated water resource management, approaches that engage local people play a crucial part in building resilience. Experience shows that many poor and near-poor households are pushed further back into poverty following a disaster. Community-based approaches involve such households in decisions about how to address future natural hazards and climate change impacts. Unlike public investment programs for DRM and poverty reduction, which work comparatively slowly, community-based approaches tend to offer more immediate results. Combined with top-down approaches, they offer an effective mechanism for reducing vulnerability to climate hazards and eventually for reducing poverty. Community-based approaches—including investments, capacity building, and planning activities—can be used to promote the implementation of resilience measures. Community-based approaches enable genuine participation in decision 63 The review was carried out by MPI with support from the World Bank; see World Bank and MPI (2015). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 90 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S making across all sectors and can be implemented as stand-alone projects or as part of larger-scale investment programs. Mainstreaming DRM and CCA in SEDPs in communes achieves considerable reduction in risk and vulnerability, even though budgets are small. Several international NGOs have supported local planning in communes and at higher administrative levels; this approach has proved successful when carried out as part of community-based projects in provinces with high levels of poverty, significant climate-related vulnerabilities, and limited financial and human resources. Given that the drought-stricken areas involve many micro-climate zones, the planning of investments should actively involve stakeholders at the community level; in this way solutions can be tailored to specific circumstances. Partnerships and cooperation between governments and agencies are critical in strengthening the resilience of the most vulnerable. Box 5.17 describes two examples: (i) a partnership between the government in Guatemala and international agencies to build resilient communities in the Dry Corridor, and (ii) the Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) that is helping its member countries in the Horn of Africa (HOA) build climate resilient communities in a sustainable manner. BOX 5.17: Fostering Government Partnerships to Build Sustainable Communities Partnering for resilience in Guatemala In Guatemala, the government is partnering with three agencies—FAO, the International Fund for Agricultural Development, and the World Food Programme—in an initiative to build the resilience of communities and food systems in the Dry Corridor. In this region, where poverty, malnutrition, and drought risks are high and basic services are scarce, the partnership is promoting early warning systems to help families bounce back quickly from disasters. Longer-term risk prevention and mitigation activities include rehabilitating infrastructure, diversifying food production, and strengthening farmer organizations, as well as promoting community-based savings and loans, public-private partnerships, and inter-sectoral policy dialogue on resilience. Source: FAO 2016b. Sustainable development initiative in the Horn of Africa (HOA) The Intergovernmental Authority on Development (IGAD) comprises eight member countries in the Horn of Africa (HOA), which is characterized by severe and frequent droughts. To address this concern and to build resilience to future climate disasters in a sustainable manner, IGAD undertook the Drought Disaster Resilience and Sustainability Initiative (IDDRSI) in 2011 to introduce sustainable development strategies, policies, and programs at member state and regional levels. Specifically, IDDRSI focuses on coordinated actions and enhanced partnerships at national, regional, and international levels to support sustainable development rather than simply provide humanitarian aid. With core functions in knowledge management and capacity development, IDDRSI aims to help communities and households by reducing food and nutrition box continues next page T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 91 insecurity through a holistic and integrated approach, and by addressing poverty and environmental degradation issues by building resilience to drought and other climate hazards in the region. The commitment to end drought emergencies is further enhanced by the IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), which offers climate services for sustainable development in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). It is the regional institution on climate information and its functions include DRM, capacity building, environmental monitoring, information dissemination, and awareness raising within the GHA. IGAD comprises eight member countries: Djibouti, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Kenya, Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and Uganda. ICPAC is responsible for climate services in IGAD member countries as well as Burundi, Rwanda, and Tanzania. Sources: IGAD IDDRSI, http://resilience.igad.int/; ICPAC, http://www.icpac.net. Continued investment is needed to sustain the national CBDRM program and ensure effective implementation across the country’s 6,000 communes. Under the national CBDRM program, the GoV has established policies and participatory institutional arrangements to carry out and manage community-based actions. Community-based approaches should continue to seek inclusiveness as they work to strengthen capacity for DRM, water resource management, and CCA. Specifically, these approaches should be viewed as an integral part of continuing sustainable development, consistent with the needs of current and future generations. See boxes 5.9, 5.12 and 5.16 for examples of the most recent activities supported by GFDRR (Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery) to strengthen and integrate DRM into ongoing larger World Bank–supported projects in Vietnam. 5.3.4 Empower Vulnerable Groups and Populations to be Resilient Efforts to promote community empowerment must begin with individual empowerment. Ultimately, the members of a community are the ones who must be empowered with knowledge and access to information. Adequate training about GAP, along with clear information about their entitlements, rights, and responsibilities within and outside the community, equips farmers to be more prepared for and resilient to climate change. Creation of farmers’ groups—based on farm size and type as well as social factors such as gender and ethnicity—empowers farmers as a collective voice to demand and expect better service, good governance, and cooperation from involved agencies. In general, women farmers have less access to information and services than male farmers; women who head households may have family responsibilities that prevent them from accessing information. Including women farmers, youth, and socially disadvantaged groups in community asset building and decision making empowers them and the community as a whole (boxes 5.18 and 5.19). T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 92 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S BOX 5.18: Helping Chinese Farmers Adapt to Climate Change Through Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) Irrigated Agriculture Intensification Loan Project III (IAIL3) in China was a large-scale initiative under Comprehensive Agricultural Development (CAD) implemented by the State Office of Comprehensive Agricultural Development (SOCAD) within the Ministry of Finance. Activities under CAD are funded by the central government of China to support agricultural and ecological development, strengthen agricultural infrastructure, ensure national food security, advance agro-processing production, and increase farmers’ income. Building on the success of IAIL1 and IAIL2, and partly financed through a World Bank loan, IAIL3 aimed to enhance adaptation of agriculture and water management practices by increasing awareness about climate change and through capacity building. It was implemented from 2005 to 2010 in five provinces—Hebei, Jiangsu, Anhui, Shandong, and Henan—in the 3H Plain of the Yellow, Huaihe, and Haihe River basins. The 3H Plain is the major agricultural zone in China. SOCAD incorporated climate change adaptation actions into IAIL3 with additional funding by the Global Environmental Facility (GEF) through the Mainstreaming Climate Change Adaptation in Irrigated Agriculture project. Engineering, agronomic, and management measures were taken to promote water saving, increase agricultural yield, and secure farmers’ livelihood, as summarized below: • Yield improvement. Farmers’ income was increased by the use of early maturing and drought- and pest-resistant varieties of wheat to improve yields. Greenhouses were built through the project to encourage farmers to grow off-season vegetables, thus increasing their income. • Infrastructure improvement. Water-stopping walls and sluices were introduced as an adaptive water-saving measure. The walls help maintain the water table in addition to containing discharge of harmful chemicals into water bodies, and the sluices enable storage of irrigation water. • Education and outreach. Expert teams organized farmer training to raise awareness of and build capacity for climate change adaptation. Experts from China Agriculture University and the Home of Rural Women, a nonprofit organization, delivered targeted training to women, particularly addressing their active role in the project and adaptation activities. • Farmers’ participation. To encourage active participation of farmers, specifically women, water user associations (WUAs) and specialized agricultural associations were promoted. To encourage farmers to take ownership of managing and maintaining the facilities and adaptation methods, irrigation facilities were constructed and handed over to WUAs. Source: Wang and Li 2013. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 93 BOX 5.19: Empowering Women Farmers and Protecting Vulnerable Groups Against Weather Risk Through Index Insurance in Rwanda and Kenya According to FAO estimates, giving women farmers the same access to credit and other financial tools available to male farmers could lead to 30 percent higher yields—resulting in up to 150 million fewer people going hungry. Natural hazards can severely affect small farmers, particularly women farmers, making them less interested in input investment and farm expansion. Insuring small farms against natural disasters through index insurance helps stabilize income in spite of weather uncertainties. The Global Index Insurance Facility (GIIF) and the World Bank Group have been supporting innovative, nontraditional index insurance programs in Sub-Saharan Africa since 2009. In Rwanda, fragmented landholding makes it difficult for farmers to access credit and risk management tools. However, by collectively enrolling farmers in index insurance programs, GIIF and its partners MicroEnsure and ACRE (Agriculture and Climate Risk Enterprise, formerly Kilimo Salama) have made it easy for women farmers to aggregate and seek coverage for weather- related risks. This approach is also commercially feasible for the insurer and has resulted in more stable incomes for women farmers. In Kenya, index insurance has enabled thousands of women farmers to continue farming even after recent droughts. They were able to buy seeds and fertilizers for the next growing season using funds provided by the ACRE program, which was initiated by GIIF and supported by Swiss Re. Similar index insurance programs are being implemented in other parts of the world, a step toward closing the gender gap in farming and making small farms more resilient and sustainable. For example, ACRE launched the Replanting Guarantee program in India in 2016 after a successful pilot project. Using rainfall as an index parameter, the program offers a payout to insured farmers if there is too little rainfall between June 15 and July 15 during the monsoon season. Sources: World Bank 2015; Kilimo Salama, http://partneringforinnovation.org/. Engage farmers by creating groups at the community level to build a strong local foundation before initiating work at higher levels. Location specificity and socioeconomic conditions come into play in such engagements. Inclusive approaches to interviewing progressive farmers and sharing success stories encourage others to follow. It is critical that such activities be tailored to the needs of different groups T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M 94 G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S and communities. The information has to be available at the local level to ensure that it reaches—and addresses the needs of—individuals. Enable productive vertical and horizontal linkages between stakeholders. Familiarity with and trust in the information provider will influence how well information is received by farmers. It is thus important for Agricultural Extension Centers to be regularly and proactively involved with farmers rather than approach them only when disaster strikes. Center workers should be trained adequately and regularly so that they are themselves well informed. Better linkages and integration between research and extension are necessary, as training and implementation are continuous processes. It is equally important for the government and financing agencies to ensure that the funds disbursed to farming communities are utilized efficiently. An effective vertical and horizontal linkage between all the stakeholders is key to achieving this objective. 5.4 Recommended Actions A holistic and integrated approach that includes both structural and nonstructural measures is proposed to address impacts of drought and SWI and to promote longer-term resilience measures across key sectors. Tackling the impacts of all types of disaster risks nationally will require well thought-out strategic planning and coordinated implementation of medium- and long-term measures from a multi-hazard perspective. Such planning must be backed by sound local knowledge, scientific understanding (for targeting and prioritizing investments for technology development and adoption), infrastructure creation, and capacity building. To effectively address the drought and SWI, an integrated approach using both structural and nonstructural interventions (policies, capacity building, information, technologies, infrastructure, and services) is needed. Table 5.1 provides options drawn from global good practices as well as from Vietnam’s experience with the 2015–2016 drought and SWI. To develop location-specific action plans (short and longer term) for different geographic areas based on their vulnerability to external shocks (such as extreme weather) and socioeconomic characteristics, these preliminary recommendations should be further prioritized and refined. Some recommendations are grouped together in the table below, but they can be further expanded as necessary. Actions that are needed in the immediate or short term (less than two years) are given under the “short term” time frame. Those that require a longer implementation period (more than two years) are addressed under the “medium/long term” time frame. In the table, the time frames are indicated by green bars. When action begins in the short term and continues over a longer term, the green bar spans both time frames. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M TABLE 5.1: Summary of Recommended Actions Based on National and International Experiences to Address Drought and SWI and to Promote Short- and Longer-Term Resilience Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) Institutional • Coordinate programs and investments across ministries and agencies at national and subnational levels • Establish high-level interministerial commission to oversee drought and SWI risk management activities • Improve institutional capacities and accountability to ensure effective response to future crises and longer-tem resilience Social • Integrate drought and SWI resilience into socioeconomic development plans • Enable household-level recovery through effectively delivered social assistance and G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S promote community-based approaches Capacity Building Cross-sectoral • Empower all stakeholders, especially vulnerable groups, through capacity building and training at all levels (e.g., administrative/technical staff, community level) T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M • Involve local communities, especially vulnerable groups, in decision making and community asset building • Enable productive vertical and horizontal linkages between stakeholders through community-based approach Financial • Develop a viable financial protection mechanism for emergency response and recovery table continues next page 95 96 Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) • Remove inconsistencies in existing subsidy policies being implemented, particularly those that encourage rice production in high-risk areas • Identify and pilot a functional insurance program such as weather index–based insurance to protect affected households and small value-chain enterprises from financial impacts of drought, floods, and SWI • Provide adequate resources for both short- and longer-term priority activities and improved impact monitoring and accountability • Support private and public agribusiness enterprises and farmers’ cooperative organizations • Consider protective financing to establish shrimp breeding enterprises and greenhouses in Mekong Delta Cross-sectoral Hydro-meteorological • Develop detailed current and projected risk profiles for different regions for natural hazards such as drought, SWI, floods, landslides, coastal storms, and wildfires • Implement user-focused hydro-meteorological services, improve medium- and longer-duration reliable weather forecasting, and raise awareness of the threat from related hazards among all stakeholders • Produce and continually validate maps of high-risk areas for early warning and advisory services table continues next page T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) • Improve surface water and groundwater resource monitoring (availability, flows, quality, and salinity levels) and management; improve emergency water allocation at basin and subbasin scale, including transboundary and inter-basin water transfer initiatives • Coordinate integrated water resource management across the water, energy, and agriculture sectors and for different purposes • Maximize the benefits from existing urban and rural water supply and irrigation infrastructures using climate-resilient and efficient water storage, supply, on-farm irrigation, and drainage systems for sustainable water use • Conduct economic and financial analysis of all water-related activities to assess productivity and efficiency; conduct water systems analysis to serve as a modern planning tool • Consider water charges to reduce wasteful use of water • Ensure appropriate water management practices during high-salinity period G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S • Implement watershed management and water-saving technologies in upstream Water Resource Management provinces to allow higher water flow to coastal provinces • Support groundwater recharge practices in suitable locations as well as rainwater T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M harvesting • Support communities and local authorities in developing suitable desalination plants • Improve wastewater treatment and biosecurity standards to better control shrimp disease as part of GAP table continues next page 97 98 Proposed Time Frame Sectoral Options to be considered based on national and global good practices Short Term Medium/Long Term Scope (less than 2 years) (2–5 years) • Ensure availability and affordability of food stocks in the affected areas and maintain strategic grain reserves • Shift away from a current emphasis on rice production in favor of more diversified agriculture and cash-cropping systems • Identify and deploy location-specific climate-smart agriculture and GAP, including appropriate land use, to reduce the damage from drought, floods, and SWI; facilitate compulsory adoption through improved policies and investments • Support R&D and promote the use of cultivars tolerant of drought, salt, and water submergence • Protect animal assets from these disasters by improving fodder and feed stock availability, pasture management, drinking water, and veterinary services • In the highlands, improve tree cover in watershed areas and promote integrated Agriculture crops, agro-forestry, and livestock mixed farming systems • In the coastal areas, facilitate transition from freshwater crops to sustainable brackish water aquaculture • In the Mekong Delta, provide economic incentives and other support services to seafood value chains and households converting salinity-affected rice fields into integrated rice- shrimp and other aquaculture farming • Enhance farm-to-market links to strengthen value chains, including improvement of storage facilities • Employ targeted preventive interventions for risk and vulnerability reduction (for example, protecting seed reserves, improved agricultural extension services, etc.) T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 99 Support from the World Bank The World Bank can offer both financial and technical assistance to support the government of Vietnam (GoV) in implementing resilient development investments. Drawing on lessons from global good practices and from tested and proven measures in Vietnam, as well as on country-specific knowledge from an active and long-standing investment portfolio, the Bank has developed priority actions for the short, medium, and long term. Using proven global practices and involving stakeholders at all levels will encourage adoption of the identified measures and thus help to build resilience to drought and SWI. The World Bank’s development assistance objectives fit into the longer-term recovery time frame. The emergency response plan prepared by the United Nations and the GoV provided both a summary of recommended actions for the humanitarian phase (three to five months) and recommendations for longer-term recovery. An initial review of the Bank’s active portfolio focused on several of the actions listed in the emergency response plan’s recovery table, including measures to strengthen priority infrastructure and to build capacity for greater climate resilience in the government and among local communities. Considering that a portion of recovery could be supported by reprogramming from existing development allocations, there is also an urgent need to transform risk management over the longer term so that the normal flow of development interventions is not jeopardized. Efforts that build on or address gaps in the country’s ongoing programs to promote resilience will have immediate and substantial benefits for future economic growth. 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Commitment Project Regional Closing Project Area of support relevant to drought and SWI amount ID coverage date (US$M) • Strengthening irrigation network VN - Mekong Delta Water • Preventing salt intrusion P113949 Management for Rural Mekong Delta 160.00 03/31/2017 Development • Improving water resources management, including irrigation capacity • Rehabilitating flood and storm protection infrastructure Vietnam Managing Natural G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S P118783 • Strengthening institutional capacity building and CBDRM Central region 150.00 3/31/2019 Hazards (VN-Haz) • Enhancing disaster forecast and early warning system • Supporting institutional capacity for sustainable fisheries Coastal Resources for management Central Coast Sustainable Development T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M P118979 and Mekong 106.50 01/31/2018 Project, including GEF financing • Developing good practices for sustainable aquacultures and inter-sectoral spatial planning for better management of coastal Delta resources (P124702) resources • Strengthening irrigation schemes and management Northern and Vietnam Irrigated Agriculture P130014 north central 180.00 12/31/2020 Improvement Project • Developing climate-smart irrigated agriculture practices regions table continues next page 107 108 Commitment Project Regional Closing Project Area of support relevant to drought and SWI amount ID coverage date (US$M) • Supporting an intensive coffee program in improved farm agronomic practices and management, including water-saving Central Sustainable Agriculture P145055 technologies Highlands and 238.00 12/31/2020 Transformation Project Mekong Delta • Supporting sustainable coffee rejuvenation/replanting Vietnam Dam Rehabilitation • Improving dam safety management Mountainous P152309 and Safety Improvement northern and 415.00 06/30/2022 Project • Rehabilitating dams central regions Northern Results-Based Scaling Up Rural Increasing and sustaining access to rural sanitation and water supply mountainous P152693 Sanitation and Water Supply 200.00 07/31/2021 in rural areas and Central Program Highland regions Mekong Delta Integrated Implementing both structural- and nonstructural-based (livelihoods) P153544 Climate Resilience and activities aimed specifically at addressing climate resilience Mekong Delta 317.00 12/31/2022 Sustainable Livelihoods Project (including flooding, drought, salinization, coastal erosion). Forest Modernization and In early project identification; provinces and focus areas not yet P157127 TBD 150.00 12/28/2023 Coastal Resilience defined but mangroves as a measure for coastal resilience will be key • Supporting construction of small-scale infrastructures, such as VN - Central Highlands Poverty water supply and irrigation canals P128072 Highlands 150.00 12/31/2019 Reduction Project (CHPov) • Enhancing food security, nutrition, and productive capacities for more diversified income sources Establishing a system for identifying poor and near-poor households National and Social Assistance System P123960 and other social assistance beneficiaries nationwide, with more- four focus 60.00 12/31/2019 Strengthening Project (SASSP) focused efforts in four provinces, including Tra Vinh provinces Reforming policies relating to water, area-based adaptation etc.; Climate Change and Green P155824 general budgetary support (non-earmarked) for policy reforms National 90.00 06/30/2017 Growth in Vietnam relating to water, coastal forests, area-based adaptation, etc. T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S G L O B A L G OO D P R A C T I C E S A N D R E C O M M E N D AT I O N S 109 T O W A R D I N T E G R AT E D D I S A S T E R R I S K M A N A G E M E N T I N V I E T N A M