SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 Evidence at Your Fingertips Series Cash Transfer Size: How Much Is Enough? Key Messages 1. Recent data underscores previous findings that high- or consumption per capita have measurable impacts, and low-value transfers both increase household particularly when accompanied by behavior consumption and have the potential to increase change communication messages to improve asset accumulation and savings. When comparing two health, nutrition, and education outcomes. transfers, the higher relative value transfer typically 4. Cash transfers offer greater agency over produces greater impacts on economic indicators such time-use decisions. They do not necessarily as investment as well as consumption and food security. discourage work but offer the possibility of 2. Higher-value lumpsum transfers may allow substituting wage work for care, self-employment, households to invest or save more than and education for children. lower-value cumulative transfers. The value of 5. High-value transfers and cumulative low-value the transfer can influence the choice of investment, transfers can both offset the associated costs of with higher lumpsum transfers enabling larger, seeking and achieving health and nutrition long-term investments and lower value transfers outcomes if they are proportional to key cost enabling smaller, short-term investments. factors such as the cost of travel to the clinic or 3. Lower-value transfers can be valuable. Even purchase of a diverse food basket and if accompanied those less than 10 percent of average annual income by messaging or conditionalities in the case of SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 low-value transfers. In education, recent research is 7. Design factors affect the impact of transfer less conclusive, indicating that the value of a transfer value. Policy makers and implementers must may be less important when factors such as supply, consider the confluence of objective, size, duration, quality, and distance from school are considered. predictability, and frequency or timing when designing 6. The impact of high-value transfers appears and implementing cash transfer programs. Larger-value to differ according to sex in particular instances, lumpsum transfers lead to more-substantive economic as well as between working-age adults. In some outcomes for households, whereas smaller frequently cases, they can increase intimate partner abuse or transferred values can lead to behavior change when decrease women’s empowerment, depending on distributed effectively and accompanied by appropriate demographic characteristics. messaging. Introduction than 30 percent of mean annual household income or consumption per capita for households in the bottom This brief examines the effects of varying cash transfer 40 percent of the income distribution. Low-value cash values on outcomes by reviewing the evidence since transfers refer to those of less than 30 percent of mean 2016, inclusive of the COVID-19 pandemic (Box 1). For the annual household income or consumption per capita for purposes of this brief and based on the sample of studies households in the bottom 40 percent, hereafter referred examined, high-value cash transfers refer to those greater to simply as average annual income per capita.1 Box 1: Cash in the Time of COVID-19 An estimated $3 trillion was spent on social protection responses to COVID-19 worldwide during 2020 and 2021. Monthly payments to offset large shocks in earnings averaged $42 in low-income countries and $536 in high-income countries. These transfers varied substantially according to level of country income. On average, COVID response consisted of historically high value transfers. Cash transfers accounted for nearly 80 percent of monthly income of recipients in low-income countries and 35 percent in middle- income countries. Nearly 1.36 billion individuals received at least one cash transfer payment during this time, with values higher than before the pandemic. Source: Gentilini 2022. 1 Transfers as a share of mean annual household consumption or income are estimated as derived from World Bank Open Data. Previous research has found 20 percent of average annual income or consumption to be the threshold between high- and low-value transfers. Recent effects of the pandemic or availability of data on average annual consumption specific to the year of each study may have increased values in this study, although this cannot be confirmed in this evidence brief alone. -2- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 Some studies dating back to 2008 were included when transfer values were not available. Fifteen studies were more-recent studies providing comparative analyses of included in the review (Table 1) (See Appendix A for details). Table 1: Studies Reviewed Country Program Scope of comparison Kenya Give Directly Randomization of high-value transfers: cumulative over 9 months vs lumpsum Kenya COVID-19 Microenterprises Two low-value lumpsum transfers Kenya Hunger Safety Net Programme High-value vs low-value monthly cumulative values over 2 years Rwanda Give Directly & Catholic Relief High-value lumpsum vs cumulative low-value transfers over 12 months Zambia Child Grant Program Two low-value bimonthly transfers; compared between countries Ghana Livelihood Empowerment Against Poverty Niger Filets Sociaux par le Cash Low-value monthly transfer over 5 months vs control Transfert Cambodia Cambodia Education Sector Two low-value transfers received cumulatively over 12 months Support Project Malawi Schooling, Income, Health Risk High- vs low-value monthly (Zomba Cash Transfers) Malawi Incentive Program/ HIV Two low-value transfers (lumpsum) Mexico Oportunidades/ Progresa High vs low cumulative value of monthly transfers Mexico Oportunidades/ Progresa and Two low-value monthly transfers Domestic Violence Ecuador Bono Solidario Two low-value monthly transfers over time vs control United States Earned Income Tax Credit/ Low-value cumulative transfer over 12 months Paycheck Plus United States Baby’s First Years High- vs low-value monthly transfers over 4 years Global Unconditional Cash Transfers High- vs low-value transfers; compared between countries and Graduation Programs Sources: Araujo, Bosch, and Schady 2016; Baird, McIntosh, and Öxler 2011; Barr, Eggleston, and Smith 2022; Bobonis, González-Brenes, and Castro 2013; Daidone et al. 2019; Filmer and Schady 2011; Hayshofer and Shapiro 2018; Kohler and Thornton 2012; Manley, Fernald, and Gertler 2015; McIntosh and Zeitlin 2021; Merttens et al. 2020; Stoeffler, Mills, and Premand 2016; Troller-Renfree et al. 2022. Some studies compared high-value with low-value literature review addresses three overarching questions transfers, and others compared high-value transfer about the impact of cash transfers on consumption and programs with other high-value transfer programs or assets, education, health and nutrition, savings, labor and low-value transfer programs with other low-value transfer time use, and empowerment. These outcomes have been programs with one program providing higher- or lower- selected because of availability of comparative analysis of value transfers than the other, as outlined in Appendix A. transfer values over the past decade. A subsequent brief addresses timing (duration and frequency) of transfers, Focusing on noncontributory monetary transfers, including although some intersecting aspects are highlighted in conditional and unconditional cash transfers, this this brief. -3- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 Key Questions 1. What is the evidence of the impact of varying cash transfer values on a range of individual and household outcomes? 2. How might the evidence influence program design and implementation of cash transfer programs? 3. What remains unknown about the effect of varying cash transfer values? Key Findings inputs to the household) (McIntosh and Zeitlin 2021). The high-value transfer of $517 also increased investment and improved child health and nutrition outcomes. (More Consumption and Assets details can be found in the Cash Transfers Versus In-Kind Transfers: Do Outcomes Vary According to Modality? Cash transfers are often hailed as a viable way for evidence brief.) people to escape the poverty trap if they are low value yet consistent and sufficient to meet basic needs or high A systematic review of 17 studies of temporary value enough to be considered a "big push." Contrary to unconditional cash transfers and multi-intervention small, modest payments—frequently distributed through graduation programs in 14 countries showed that national and subnational social assistance programs— unconditional cash transfers increased household high-value one-time transfers have been used as vehicles consumption by 0.35 standard deviation per unit of whereby beneficiaries can meet their consumption needs transfer consistently in varying developing country and invest in productive assets and activities to increase contexts (Kondylis and Loeser 2021). It also found that income. Research supports the idea that varying the higher value of a transfer for households experiencing value of transfers can measurably affect consumption a scarcity poverty trap can reduce household poverty, and asset accumulation, although greater value (larger although higher value does not indicate greater longevity size or intensity) does not automatically lead to greater of effects or cost-effectiveness, which complementary consumption. interventions such as graduation programs may provide over a longer time horizon. Researchers attribute the Within 15 cash-transfer programs, households receiving incongruity to decreasing returns to scale and frictional high-value transfers spent more on food than poverty traps that are not overcome simply with higher those receiving low-value transfers (Bastalgi et al. transfer values. This review also posits that households 2016). Similarly, benchmarking a maternal and child may choose to use higher-value transfers for more than nutrition program against an unconditional cash transfer just consumption. in Rwanda showed that high-value cash transfers of $517 (estimated 118 percent of average annual income) Beyond consumption, high-value transfers (e.g., those increased consumption substantially more than low-value that the nongovernmental organization GiveDirectly has transfers of pooled value $90 (estimated 21 percent of provided in East Africa of $200 and more), or the larger average annual income) or an in-kind transfer valued at of two transfers, have been found to result in more- $70 (which included $5 direct transfer of materials and productive investments by households than lower-value -4- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 cash transfers. Likewise, a comparison of two monthly does not guarantee that impacts will persist over time, low-value transfers in Zambia found that the larger of the with poverty traps and declining marginal returns as value two (valued at 28 percent of median monthly household increases limiting their effects. consumption) triggered investment decisions proportional to the value of transfers,2 whereas in In particular, studies indicate the versatility of cash Ghana, the smaller of two transfers (valued at 10 percent transfers as a reason for their impact on consumption and of median monthly household consumption) did not have productive investments. If the value is sufficient, research similar results (Daidone et al. 2019). shows that most recipients who receive one-time high-value transfers or consistent low-value The evidence is inconclusive as to whether transfer transfers that accumulate choose to consume and values have lasting impacts (medium and long to invest when given the opportunity. The value of term) on investment. Despite positive and persistent the transfer can also influence the choice of investment, effects on consumption and agricultural revenues three with higher lumpsum amounts leading to larger long-term years after a transfer in Kenya, no significant differences investments and smaller amounts to smaller short-term were found in value of nonland assets, nondurable investments (Bastalgi et al. 2016). expenditures, or total monthly income indices between households receiving high-value lumpsum transfers This choice of investment between high and low value ($1,525) and those receiving low-value transfers ($404) transfers may not hold true if conditions are not in place (Haushofer and Shapiro 2018). Another study found that to optimize the use of transfers, such as in the face of cash transfers spurred investments in livestock assets that scarcity poverty traps. For example, if there are market were sustained for more than 18 months for households knowledge asymmetries, liquidity absorption problems, in rural Niger (Stoeffler, Mills, and Premand 2016) and or access barriers, a recipient may not be able to use a that even low-value transfers of 10,000 African Financial cash transfer effectively for consumption and investment, Community francs per month (approximately $20, or 20 which may contribute to the lack of long-term impact percent of household monthly consumption) disbursed observed in some studies or a greater need for messaging over 18 months had significant impacts on extremely and mechanisms such as savings through which to invest poor households when coupled with access to savings productively. groups. More research on longevity of impacts is needed to determine how time affects the impact of cash transfers Savings on monetary poverty. The value of a transfer may trigger different levels of savings in recipient households (Bastalgi et al. 2016). Consumption and Assets Pathways Some recent research in Rwanda confirmed this, showing Recent data underscore previous findings that high- and that high-value cash transfers increased consumption low-value transfers increase household consumption and and investment through savings more than low-value have the potential to increase asset accumulation. Higher- transfers (McIntosh and Zeitlin 2021), although in-kind value lumpsum cash transfers may allow households to transfers coupled with savings training and messaging, invest more, but increasing the value of cash transfers including behavioral change communication and 2 Beneficiaries of Zambia’s Child Grant program received a higher low-value transfer of 28 percent of median household consumption, and beneficiaries of Ghana’s Orphan and Vulnerable Children program received a low-value transfer of 10 percent of household consumption (later tripled). Most of the evaluated programs received a cash transfer equivalent to 20 percent to 25 percent of median household consumption. -5- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 participation in savings and internal lending communities, cases, recipients are most likely to trade labor for leisure. had the greatest effects on savings. This may be due to In addition, high-value transfers determined according the instrumentation of the in-kind transfer reducing to threshold values may generate perverse incentives for transactional costs to households while messaging and households close to a cut-off threshold to appear poorer savings mechanisms made savings easier to accomplish. by reducing labor income to remain eligible. The trade-off effect is much weaker for large lumpsum cash transfers Enabling households to save even small amounts can have that recipients cannot rely on and for very poor recipients, demonstrable long-term effects. For example, children who depend on all forms of income. Ultimately, the choice in the United States whose families received greater of labor versus leisure depends not only on transfer value, increases in child-related tax benefits or refunds ($1,300 but also on frequency and household circumstances. annually)—allowing their families to consume and save more—had 1 percent to 2 percent greater increases Low-value transfers of $50 (equivalent to about one in adult income per year than children of families just month of average profit, less than 10 percent of average above the cutoff, who received smaller tax benefits (Barr, annual income per capita) to a randomly selected group Eggleston, and Smith 2022).3 These intergenerational of micro-enterprise owners in Kenya did not lead to impacts merit further study. closure of firms (Brooks et al. 2020). Instead, beneficiary firms were 5 percentage points more likely to be open and remain open an additional half hour a day than Pathways enterprises that received a low-value transfer of $5 (less than 1 percent of average annual income per capita). The Although recipients consume part of a transfer, when larger of two low-value transfers encouraged businesses the value is sufficient, they may also save to invest in to operate during the COVID-19 pandemic. productive assets. Increasing the value of transfers increases the productive impact not only through Studies of cash transfer programs across Africa have found investments, but also through savings. Increasing the an inverted relationship between paid wage labor and value of a transfer or coupling a low-value transfer value of unearned cash transfers (Daidone et al. 2019). with other measures may not only affect savings, Similarly, a shift away from paid wage labor to own-farm but also increase investment. labor in Zambia was observed when households received high-value transfers (Prifti et al. 2019). This was not due Labor and Time Use to dependency; with low-value transfers, households remained in paid labor, when available, to supplement Cash transfers are criticized for encouraging dependence their low overall income. For many households, increasing and laziness in recipients (Baird, McKenzie, and Özler the value of a transfer can enable the choice of engaging in 2018). Although this is largely unfounded, exaggerated, self-employment and entrepreneurship through own-farm and contrary to evidence, the effect of high-value transfers labor while reducing engagement in paid wage labor. on the labor supply may exist at margin under certain conditions. For example, the income effect underlying the Not all recipients shift to new forms of profitable labor. trade-off between labor and leisure appears most evident High-value transfers have no effect on paid labor or when transfers are substantial or prolonged, such as very reduce working hours of adults in favor of caring for large one-time lottery winnings or regular predictable dependents or alleviating the workload of adult family pensions (Baird, McKenzie, and Özler 2018). In these members (Bastalgi et al. 2016). If transfers are insufficient 3 The tax credit for the average lower-income household was approximately $1,300 (10 percent of income). -6- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 to cover income losses from child labor plus additional transfers of lower value, when combined with costs for attending school, adults may have to increase accompanying measures, can create incentives time on labor activities, such as low-paid casual work. In that spur behavior change of households. general, the value of the transfer affects the types of work a recipient chooses. For example, female Kenyan micro-enterprise owners who received $50 (equivalent to 1 month of average profit but less than 10 percent of average annual income per capita) Pathways in coordination with a COVID-19 information campaign spent an average of 22 percent more on personal High-value transfers can provide recipients with greater protective equipment than a control group that received a resources to increase their participation in more- smaller transfer of $5 to cover mobile telephone costs and profitable income-generating employment activities, such time spent engaging in the study (Brooks et al. 2020). The as their own agriculture, or to divert their time to care for $50 intervention also improved an index of risk mitigation dependents. Transfers can also increase low-paid casual practices such as hand washing and mask wearing during work if they are insufficient to meet the opportunity costs the pandemic. of reducing child labor and school fees. Building the body of evidence on cash and health, Cash transfers allow recipients to invest in their own another study (Manley, Fernald, and Gertler 2015) found farms through agricultural and nonfarm businesses, that high-value transfers (estimated 40 percent average increasing the return on work and causing recipients to annual consumption) were associated with small but work more. In addition, cash may provide insurance that statistically significantly higher child height-for-age can stimulate investment in new, risky activities, such z-scores and a greater likelihood of attending required as self-employment or reduction in child labor. Transfers health checks through Progresa/Oportunidades in Mexico can lead to more spending on business activities for self- than low-value transfers (estimated less than 30 percent employment, and cash transfers that increase education of average annual consumption). and reduce child labor can improve labor market outcomes for adolescents when they become adults. Another study (Merttens et al. 2013) found no effect of monthly high-value transfers (17 percent to 28 percent This review found weak recent evidence of the depreciation of mean monthly consumption) on dietary diversity or of human capital, the impact of grant eligibility conditions child malnutrition despite a cumulative effect on average on work, and the impact of health productivity. food consumption over two years through the Hunger and Safety Net Program in Kenya, indicating that higher Education, Health, and Nutrition values do not automatically equate to higher investments in health and nutrition, which more influential exogenous Different cash transfer values may have different effects factors such as drought, famine, and other acute crises not only on consumption, savings, and labor, but also affect. This underscores the importance of timing in on human capital development, most notably through combination with value. To illustrate, mothers in the United health care and nutrition, although recent evidence on States were provided high- and low-value unconditional education is mixed at best. Recent studies concur that cash transfers shortly after giving birth (Troller-Renfree the greater the transfer as a share of average et al. 2022). Receipt of high-value transfers (15 times annual income, the more likely recipients are as great in value as other mothers) relative to average to adopt lasting healthy behaviors that improve annual consumption in the bottom quintile in the country the health and nutrition of children, yet even had positive effects on early childhood brain activity -7- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 after four years of transfers, as tested using resting The main mechanism by which cash transfers are thought electroencephalography. (See brief on Timing for more to increase access to education in the short term is by insights on timing of transfers to pivotal life stages.) removing financial barriers to schooling. The introduction of additional money is also expected to reduce child labor Despite notable effects on health and nutrition, recent and drop-outs and to increase enrollment. It is presumed short- and long-term evidence on education that cash offsets the opportunity costs of sending impacts based on transfer value is less conclusive children to school and gives families economic incentive and much more limited compared to health. A to educate their children. Under this assumption, transfers study of Progresa/Oportunidades in Mexico found that may have greater effects, especially in secondary school, high-value transfers statistically significantly improved if the value is high enough to cover the loss of income cognitive and verbal test scores (Manley, Fernald, and generated by child labor (opportunity costs) in addition to Gertler 2015). By contrast, in Ecuador, no difference was the direct costs of schooling, but as studies show, this is found 10 years later between children in the Bono Solidario not always the case. The value of a transfer may be less ($7) and ($15) groups receiving varying low-value cash important than other influential exogenous factors such transfers in tests of language, mathematics, attention, as traditional obstacles to enrollment and educational working memory, recovery and behavioral outcomes attainment, including supply, quality, and distance from (Araujo, Bosch, and Schady 2016). Cambodia's Education school. These factors are more common at the secondary Sector Support Project, which transferred $45 and $60 school level. annually, did not find a statistically significant effect of transfer value on school attendance (Filmer and Schady 2011), whereas a small but significant decrease in test Empowerment scores was found for the unconditional arm of Malawi's Zomba Cash Transfer Program, which transferred $60 or Cash transfers are increasingly used in programs designed $180 annually, despite an increase in enrollment with to reduce gender violence and intimate partner violence higher-value transfers (Baird, McKenzie, and Özler 2011). because they tend to provide a financial safety net that enables women to leave abusive relationships. Recent research generally supports the claim that cash Pathways transfers can reduce physical abuse of women by strengthening their bargaining power, although Higher-value transfers and greater exposure to lower- studies from 2008 to 2016 have showed that value transfers over time (producing a cumulative high-value cash transfers have the potential to effect) can offset the associated costs of seeking increase physical abuse in certain demographic and achieving health and nutrition outcomes if they tiers more than less-conspicuous low-value are proportional to key cost factors, such as cost of transfers. travel to a clinic or purchase of a diverse food basket, and if accompanied by messaging or conditionalities In Mexico's Progresa/Oportunidades program, the greater in the case of low-value transfers. These tend to of two low-value transfers (24 percent of average annual improve health and nutritional outcomes by increasing income per capita [625 pesos] versus 4 percent [100 pesos]) health-seeking behavior and purchasing power. These increased the likelihood of abuse because it increased results do not occur in a vacuum and must therefore women’s bargaining power and men’s rent-seeking be combined with access to care and nutritious food, behavior (Angelucci 2008; Bobonis, González-Brenes, reliability and duration of transfers, and accurate and Castro 2013). This was particularly pronounced in communication about healthy behaviors. households whose members had limited education and -8- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 for women who had few alternatives because of their women as recipients of micro-credit or other programs youth, limited education, and lack of job prospects. can reduce alcoholism and intimate partner violence in most households, the risk of violence can increase for In a sexual health incentive program in Malawi, the households receiving large sums. Lower-value transfers larger of two low-value transfers ($16, $4) to women may be better absorbed and even concealed, with fewer had a significant positive impact on safe sex practices— unintended effects related to physical abuse. Further abstinence or use of condoms—despite being equivalent studies are needed, particularly given the plethora of to only an estimated 5.5 percent of average annual gender-sensitive cash transfer programming since 2008. income per capita. Conversely, larger transfers to men increased the tendency to use a condom but also the likelihood of risky sex (Kohler and Thornton 2012). It is Emerging Insights believed that the men used the larger transfers to buy risky sex, whereas women used the transfers to avoid Recent research indicates that for cash transfers to be risky sex for money. effective, they should either be significant lump-sum amounts, constituting 30 percent or more of the average A study of the long-term impact of unconditional cash annual consumption per capita, or should yield continuous transfers in rural Kenya did not find significant differences cumulative benefits over time. It is crucial to consider in female empowerment indicators between two high- both high-value and low-value transfers, as even smaller value transfers ($404, $1,525) three years after the amounts can play a significant role in providing basic program began, although significant differences due to protection and ensuring equity. When combined with limited statistical power could not be excluded (Haushofer targeted messaging on health, nutrition, and education, and Shapiro 2018). More-recent studies on abuse, sexual low-value transfers can serve as sufficient incentives for practice, and empowerment are not available but would promoting healthy behaviors, as well as encouraging strengthen these findings. enrollment and school attendance for children. The success of these efforts is not only tied to the amount of the transfer but also to the presence of conditions Pathways and accompanying measures, such as behavior change communication, emphasizing their overall value. Higher-value transfers can be expected to increase financial independence and thus decision-making power, Policy makers and implementers should assess the reduce or delay marriage and pregnancy, increase use of objective and the primary intended results of cash transfers contraception, and reduce risky sexual behavior, especially to determine the optimal value and its interaction with for women. Violence can increase or decrease depending other factors such as timing, duration, and frequency. on the value of the transfer, demographic composition, Low-value transfers can lead to good outcomes for and resources available to partners in need. immediate, acute needs, including food insecurity, and in times of crisis. These transfers are also most beneficial Lower-value transfers often reduce intimate partner when predictable and combined with messaging. High- violence, whereas higher-value transfers can increase value transfers may best be used to drive broader gains the aggressive behavior of male partners with traditional in poverty reduction and human capital development views on gender roles if their partner's right to high- through investment, savings, and improvements in health value transfers threatens their identity (Angelucci 2008). and nutrition. High-value transfers may also curb potential These results reject standard unitary, collective, and inflation impacts when provided to a specific group such bargaining models by showing that, although targeting as poor households rather than the general population, -9- SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 which could reduce potential for market distortions. There is limited evidence in recent studies of the impact For acute needs, high-value transfers can be directed of different values of cash transfers on education and to recipients with greater need, with lower values for a empowerment, so further research is needed. More broader segment of the population. Inflationary impacts information is also needed about the impact of the may also be seen with a threshold of 30 percent to define value of transfers on income poverty over time. There low-value versus high-value transfers in this brief, unlike are notable regional and contextual gaps, with most previous measures of 20 percent, although more evidence evidence and research are coming from Latin America; is required to support this. the United States; and sub-Saharan Africa, particularly eastern and southern Africa. Further research from Asia, Relative transfer size also affects impact. This brief Europe, Western Africa, and North America is needed to has reviewed studies comparing high- and low-value complement this analysis. transfers, as well as those comparing different high-value and low-value transfers. In the latter case, slightly higher It is possible that the impact of an additional transfer unit or lower value can generate differences for households on certain indicators is not significant beyond a certain even if both are above or below a 30 percent threshold of transfer value. For example, an additional unit could have average annual consumption per capita. no impact on expenditures if recipients decided to save or invest the additional money. The existence and form Depending on the program objectives, high-value cash of such threshold effects and nonlinear effects are areas transfers of greater than 30 percent of average annual that are ripe for further research to determine optimal income per capita increases consumption and productivity transfer values. where market conditions permit, increasing savings and investment, improving health and nutrition outcomes Although the value of cash transfers is important, it is for women and children, and strengthening women's one of many factors. Intended purpose of a cash transfer, bargaining power. Recent evidence is inconclusive on household demographic characteristics, frequency, the impact of transfer value on increasing educational behavioral change, communication and messaging, attainment and increasing women's empowerment by market opportunities or obstacles, and duration combine reducing physical abuse. with value to produce (or not produce) intended results. This series of policy briefs examines the interaction of Previous research has shown that low-value transfers these factors. received regularly seem to have greater impact on cognitive test results in the early years of a child's life and brain development than later in primary and secondary Appendix A school. Despite the small amount, the regularity of cumulative transfers combined with messaging have Robust recent evidence is available of the impact of cash noteworthy impacts on early childhood development transfer value on consumption, savings, employment, and healthy behavior. Depending on the target group, and health. Data on the impact of value on education such as young women with low education, regular and empowerment are lacking from 2016 on, so earlier low-value transfers may also have fewer unintended studies were used. Table A.1 provides an overview of the consequences for physical abuse than high-value 15 studies included in this brief: program focus, country transfers. Practitioners should apply gender, income, context, program name, size of transfers, and outcomes and age-sensitive lenses to program design and make measured. Certain studies compare high-value transfers a clear assessment of potential impacts on different with low-value transfers, whereas others compare two levels of education. high-value or two low-value transfers of different sizes. - 10 - Table A.1. Country Program Scope of comparison % of mean Outcome annual household income or consumption per capita for households in the bottom 40 % High Low Consumption Savings Labor Health Education Empowerment value value and assets and time and use nutrition SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P Kenya Give Directly Randomization of high- value transfers: cumulative X X over 9 months vs lumpsum Kenya COVID-19 Two low-value lumpsum 1-8 X X X X Microenterprises transfers Kenya Hunger Safety Net High-value vs low-value Programme monthly cumulative values 17-28 12 X X over 2 years - 11 - Rwanda Give Directly & Randomization of high- Catholic Relief value and pooled low-value  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE 517 90 X X X transfers: lump sum vs cumulative over 12 months Zambia Child Grant Two low-value twice a Program month transfers compared Ghana Livelihood between countries 28-10 X Empowerment Against Poverty Niger Filets Sociaux par le Low-value monthly transfer 20 X X Cash Transfert over 5 months vs control Cambodia Cambodia Two low-value transfers Education Sector received cumulatively over X X X Support Project 12 months Malawi Schooling, Income, High- vs low-value monthly 60 20 X X X Health Risk (Zomba Cash Transfers) Malawi Incentive Program/ Two low-value transfers 1.5-5 X X HIV (lump sum) MARCH 2024 | No. 31 Country Program Scope of comparison % of mean Outcome annual household income or consumption per capita for households in the bottom 40 % High Low Consumption Savings Labor Health Education Empowerment value value and assets and time and use nutrition Mexico Oportunidades/ High vs low cumulative 40 30 X X SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P Progresa value of monthly transfers Mexico Oportunidades/ Two low-value monthly Progresa and transfers 4-24 X Domestic Violence Ecuador Bono Solidario Two low-value monthly transfers over time vs 5-10 X control United Earned Income Tax Low-value cumulative States Credit/Paycheck transfer over 12 months 10 X X - 12 - Plus  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE United Baby’s First Years High- vs low-value monthly 44 3 X States transfer over 4 years Global Unconditional High- vs low-value transfers Cash Transfers compared between Varied Higher value X and Graduation countries Programs Sources: Araujo, Bosch, and Schady 2016; Baird, McIntosh, and Öxler 2011; Barr, Eggleston, and Smith 2022; Bobonis, González-Brenes, and Castro 2013; Daidone et al. 2019; Filmer and Schady 2011; Hayshofer and Shapiro 2018; Kohler and Thornton 2012; Manley, Fernald, and Gertler 2015; McIntosh and Zeitlin 2021; Merttens et al. 2020; Stoeffler, Mills, and Premand 2016; Troller-Renfree et al. 2022. 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Baird, Sarah, David McKenzie, and Berk Özler. 2018. “The Effects of Cash Transfers on Adult Labor Market Outcomes.” World Bank, Washington, DC. https://g2lm-lic.iza.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/glmlic_sp009.pdf Barr, Andrew, Jonathan Eggleston, and Alexander A Smith. 2022. “Investing in Infants: The Lasting Effects of Cash Transfers to New Families”. http://people.tamu.edu/~abarr/Investing_Infants_QJEresubmission_2_15_2022b.pdf. Bastagli, Francesca, Jessica Hagen-Zanker, Luke Harman, Valentina Barca, Georgina Sturge, and Tanja Schmidt. 2016. “Cash Transfers: What Does the Evidence Say?” Overseas Development Institute, London. https://cdn.odi.org/media/documents/11316.pdf. Bobonis, Gustavo J., Melissa González-Brenes, and Roberto Castro. 2013. “Public Transfers and Domestic Violence: The Roles of Private Information and Spousal Control.” American Economic Journal: Economic Policy 5 (1): 179-205. https://doi.org/10.1257/pol.5.1.179. Brooks, Wyatt, Kevin Donovan, Terence R. 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Noble. 2022. “The Impact of a Poverty Reduction Intervention on Infant Brain Activity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 119 (5): e2115649119. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2115649119. - 13 - SOCIAL PROTECTION & JOBS | P  OLICY & TECHNICAL NOTE MARCH 2024 | No. 31 Evidence at Your Fingertips Series This note is part of thematic briefs in the series including: • Evidence Briefs on Cash Transfers: Overview and Ten Key Messages • Cash Transfer Timing: How Transfer Duration and Frequency Contribute to Outcomes • Cash Transfer Payment Mechanisms: Do Outcomes Vary According to Payment Mechanism? • Cash Or In-Kind Transfers: Do Outcomes Vary According Transfer to Modality? • Can Safety Nets Reduce Gender-Based Violence? How? The series is launched with that aim that these be living documents. In that spirit, the team welcomes suggestions on materials and topics to be covered in the future series that can serve as useful, practical references for practitioners of social protection. The series is a joint initiative by Innovations for Poverty Action and the World Bank’s Social Protection and Jobs Global Practice comprising Nathanael Goldberg, Lauren Whitehead, Savanna Henderson, Gabriel Olila, Ana Alatriste Tamayo, Julie Kedroske, Ugo Gentilini, Yuko Okamura, Mohamed Almenfi, Hrishikesh TMM Iyengar, and Mia Blakstad. For any questions regarding this brief, please reach out to socialprotection@poverty-action.org and yokamura@worldbank.org © 2024 International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank 1818 H Street NW Washington DC 20433 Telephone: +1 (202) 473 1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank with external contributions. 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