Social Foundations of a Just Coal Transition Joanne Jordan Janna Tenzing © 2024 The World Bank Group to constitute legal, securities, or investment advice, an opinion regarding the appropriateness of any 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433 investment, or a solicitation of any type. Some of the organizations of the World Bank Group or their Telephone: 202‑473‑1000; affiliates may have an investment in, provide other Internet: www.worldbank.org advice or services to, or otherwise have a financial interest in, certain of the companies and parties This work is a product of the staff of The World Bank named herein. Group with external contributions. “The World Bank Group” refers to the legally separate organizations Nothing herein shall constitute or be construed or of the International Bank for Reconstruction considered to be a limitation upon or waiver of the and Development (IBRD), the International privileges and immunities of any of the organizations Development Association (IDA), the International of The World Bank Group, all of which are specifically Finance Corporation (IFC), and the Multilateral reserved. Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this RIGHTS AND PERMISSIONS work do not necessarily reflect the views of The World Bank Group, its Board of Executive Directors, The material in this work is subject to copyright. or the governments they represent. Because the World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its knowledge, this work may be The World Bank Group does not guarantee the reproduced, in whole or in part, for noncommercial accuracy, reliability or completeness of the content purposes as long as full attribution to this work is included in this work, or the conclusions or judgments given and all further permissions that may be required described herein, and accepts no responsibility or for such use (as noted herein) are acquired. The liability for any omissions or errors (including, without World Bank Group does not warrant that the content limitation, typographical errors and technical errors) contained in this work will not infringe on the rights of in the content whatsoever or for reliance thereon. third parties and accepts no responsibility or liability in The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other this regard. information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank Please cite this work as follows: Jordan, J. and Group concerning the legal status of any territory or Tenzing, J. 2024. Social Foundations of a Just Coal the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Transition. Washington DC: World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this volume do not necessarily reflect All queries on rights and licenses should be addressed the views of the organizations of the World Bank to World Bank Publications, Group, their respective Boards of Executive Directors, The World Bank Group, and the governments they represent. 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; e‑mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. The contents of this work are intended for general informational purposes only and are not intended Cover design: Cybil Maradza Contents Contents ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ iii Acknowledgments ................................................................................................................................................................................................................. iv Executive summary ............................................................................................................................................................................................................... v Acronyms ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... vii 1. INTRODUCTION 1 1.1 Study objective ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 1.2 Audience, methods, and scope .................................................................................................................................................................. 3 2. SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL 6 2.1 Transition impacts on people and communities ........................................................................................................................... 6 Loss of employment among lower-skilled and informal workers, and non-mine workers .......................... 6 Increased household costs and reduced public investment in social services and local infrastructure .... 7 Mobility and outmigration ............................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Stress, anxiety, and depression .................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Place attachment, and social and cultural identity ...................................................................................................................... 10 Tension, conflict, and violence ................................................................................................................................................................... 10 Intersectionality ...................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 2.2 Social co-benefits of a coal transition .................................................................................................................................................... 12 3. A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION 16 3.1 Analytics ........................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 17 3.2 Consensus and vision-building ................................................................................................................................................................... 21 3.3 Institutional readiness ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 23 3.4 Community investments .................................................................................................................................................................................. 25 3.5 Knowledge exchange ......................................................................................................................................................................................... 27 3.6 Dialogue and participatory approaches as cross-cutting ....................................................................................................... 28 4. CONCLUSION AND FURTHER WORK 29 REFERENCES 31 APPENDIXES 41 Appendix A. Status of coal phaseout ..................................................................................................................................................................... 41 Appendix B. Research design and methods .................................................................................................................................................... 43 Appendix C. Seven principles to realize a just transition to a low-carbon economy ........................................................ 44 Appendix D. World Bank 3x3 framework for a just transition ............................................................................................................. 47 Appendix E. Overview of the social aspects of mine closure ............................................................................................................. 48 Appendix F. Degree of citizen participation and power in decision-making .......................................................................... 49 Social Dimensions of Climate Change | iii SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Acknowledgements This study was produced by the Social Dimensions of as well as Stéphane Hallegatte, Elizabeth Ruppert Climate Change Global Solutions Group in the Global Bulmer, Marcela Rozo, Michael Stanley, and Andrea Department for Social Development at the World Bank, Fitri Woodhouse. In addition, they thank the experts under the leadership and guidance of Louise Cord, who generously contributed their insights through Nikolas Myint, Jana El-Horr, and Margaret Arnold. It was interviews for this study: John Leo Algo, Balada co-authored by Joanne Jordan and Janna Tenzing. Amor, Elaine Joyce Borejon, Kenneth Bernard M. Joanne Jordan led on the desk-based research, Hizon, Binnu Jeyakumar, Mukul Kumar, Michelle qualitative interviews, data analysis, writing, and review Lapiz, Joel Chester Pagulayan, Riedo Panaligan, Sri and contributed to the conceptualization of the study. Lestari, Nick Robins, Anabella Rosemberg, Elizabeth Janna Tenzing led on the conceptualization of the Ruppert Bulmer, Michael Stanley, Justine Sylvester, study and contributed to the desk-based research, Emcet Tas, and the participants of the stakeholder analysis, writing, and review. The authors gratefully meetings of the Just Coal Transition Platform acknowledge substantive contributions from Jana El- Southeast Asia. They thank Lucy Southwood for her Horr, Ezgi Canpolat, Lelia Croitoru, Margaret Arnold, skillful editing of the manuscript and Cybil Maradza and Cristina Coirolo, as well as further inputs from Ava for the design of the report. Khavari and Sana Ikram Sharif. They are also grateful for the invaluable feedback received from peer reviewers The team gratefully acknowledges funding from at various stages of the research: Balada Amor, Nina the Extractives Global Programmatic Support Kolybashkina, Abidah Setyowati and Bandita Sijapati, (EGPS) Program. iv | Social Dimensions of Climate Change EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Executive Summary With climate change causing loss and damage, the transition will take place. Using participatory disrupting nature, and affecting the lives of billions approaches and mapping helps ensure everyone of people, the world has accepted that it cannot is heard and nobody is overlooked in transition achieve carbon dioxide reduction goals without planning and management. phasing out coal. The global energy sector is the primary contributor to carbon dioxide emissions, • Supporting consensus and vision-building, with coal as the foremost contributor between 2015 which will enhance trust in and community and 2019, responsible for approximately 44 percent ownership of the transition process. Having in 2019 (IEA 2020). But while transitioning from coal a shared vision for the community’s post-coal to affordable, reliable, and clean energy sources is future provides clear direction for transition essential for fulfilling the Paris Agreement targets, planners, guiding decision-making and resource it also poses economic and social challenges in allocation toward specific outcomes. Sustained meeting growing energy demands. and inclusive social dialogue contributes to the co-creation of such a vision—and a roadmap This paper argues that addressing the broader for its achievement—with affected communities social dimensions of coal transitions is crucial for and stakeholders. success and offers benefits and opportunities for the millions of people affected. It outlines existing • Ensuring institutions at all levels are ready literature about anticipated impacts of the transition and able to manage the transition, and work not just on workers, but on people and communities together with all stakeholders, which will ensure more broadly, such as loss of employment, increased more effective and inclusive policy planning household costs, reduced public investment, mobility and decision-making. Governance structures and outmigration, mental health, social and cultural must be transparent and participative, and identity, and conflict. It also considers the social co- outcomes desirable and acceptable for affected benefits of coal transitions, such as reduced risks to communities. Decentralizing decision-making livelihoods, new job opportunities, improvements authority to the lowest appropriate level of in health and well-being, and social empowerment. governance while ensuring coordination and Finally, it cautions that the uneven distribution of collaboration between different government transition benefits and burdens can exacerbate pre- levels, sectors and stakeholders will help align existing inequalities and systemic marginalization, the needs and priorities of affected communities reproducing the energy sector’s legacy of social with national transition and development goals. It exclusion and injustice (Johnson et al. 2020), will also promote effective local action. underlining that social sustainability, alongside economic and environmental sustainability, are vital • Community investments that respond to local for advancing a just transition away from coal. priorities and needs while being aligned with regional and national development planning, The paper offers a framework of upstream which will enhance trust and ownership over the interventions to help governments and other actors transition process. Environmental rehabilitation, facilitate inclusive planning, decision-making, land repurposing, and stranded asset upgrading and transition management. To help ensure their can attract new opportunities and bring broader transition away from coal is both socially sustainable social benefits to the local community, especially and just, interventions must start at the earliest when guided by locally led, participatory, stages of planning and continue through to the post- inclusive, and empowering processes. transition community development phase. To guide planners and decision-makers through this process, • Multicountry and national-level coal phaseout the paper explores the importance of: knowledge exchange platforms, which can help bridge the gap between the way we understand • Collecting and analyzing socioeconomic and and address challenges around socially sustainable social inclusion data early on, which helps develop just transitions away from coal. As well as building a good understanding of the context within which confidence that there is a better way to manage Social Dimensions of Climate Change | v SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION the transition, these platforms can facilitate through ongoing dialogue and transparent and the dissemination of bespoke, contextualized participatory policy practices. knowledge and play a pivotal role in disseminating policies, reforms, and initiatives. It is important to recognize that this framework represents a set of ideal interventions or entry-points, • Building meaningful and continuous dialogue and to acknowledge the challenges of implementing and engagement, which lies at the heart of this transition. Doing so will require political will, developing a socially sustainable transition, and significant time inputs, financing, and an interdisciplinary cuts across the five areas of intervention outlined skillset. These challenges underscore the complexity above. Building trust among stakeholders and depth of the transition process, and the need and in institutions takes significant time and for sustained effort and collaboration across various resources, and must be patiently cultivated stakeholders to ensure a fair and equitable outcome. vi | Social Dimensions of Climate Change ACRONYMS Acronyms CIF Climate Investment Funds COP Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change IEA International Energy Agency ILO International Labour Organization IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change LURA Land Use Repurposing Application PPCA Powering Past Coal Alliance SME Small and Medium-sized Enterprises STEM Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics Social Dimensions of Climate Change | vii SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION 1 | Introduction Climate change is widespread, rapid, and intensifying. The urgency of the climate crisis contrasts with It has already caused dangerous losses and damages, the lengthy coal phaseout process, which often led to disruptions in nature, and affected the lives spans decades. Countries transitioning away from of billions of people worldwide (IPCC 2022). Risks coal need to adhere to significantly accelerated to livelihoods, food security, water supply, health timelines compared to those followed in the past, and well-being, ecosystem structure and function, as globally, unabated coal-fired power generation biodiversity, economic growth, and human security are must decrease to 80 percent below 2010 levels projected to increase with global warming of 1.5°C and (Climate Analytics 2019). To meet such targets, will increase further with 2°C (IPCC 2018a). Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development nations will need to eliminate coal The global energy sector stands as the primary usage by 2030, and lower and middle-income contributor to carbon dioxide emissions. Limiting countries shut down all coal-fired power plants by warming to well below 2°C necessitates swift and 2040 (appendix A), requiring them to cancel new substantial reductions in energy system carbon coal power projects and hasten the retirement of dioxide and greenhouse gas emissions (Clarke et existing coal plants (Edenhofer et al. 2018; Smith et al. 2022). This entails increasing production from al. 2019). To limit warming to 2°C or lower, existing low- and zero-carbon energy sources, decreasing coal plants must retire 10–25 years earlier than the reliance on fossil fuels, and promoting greater use of historical average operational lifespan (Clarke et al. electricity and alternative energy carriers. But despite 2022), while executing all planned projects would these requirements, energy demands and emissions curtail the viable lifespan of all plants by another from the energy sector continue to climb. Fossil fuel 5–10 years (Cui et al. 2019). carbon dioxide emissions from the global energy system surged by 4.6 percent between 2015 and But while transitioning away from coal is essential for 2019, constituting around two-thirds of annual global fulfilling the Paris Agreement targets and attaining anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions (Minx et al. the Sustainable Development Goals, it also poses 2021; Monforti et al. 2021). economic and social challenges. These obstacles vary regionally, contingent on extant coal infrastructure, As stipulated in the Paris Agreement of the United economic development, alternative energy availability, Nations Framework Convention on Climate institutional capacity and governance, legal and Change, phasing out coal in the electricity sector is administrative capacity, historical background, key to limiting global warming to 1.5°C (IPCC 2018b; political economy considerations, cultural norms, Spencer et al. 2018). Coal emerged as the foremost and other factors (Jakob et al. 2020; World Bank contributor to carbon dioxide emissions from the 2024a). Importantly, the transition is expected to have energy sector between 2015 and 2019, and was widespread socioeconomic effects on communities responsible for approximately 44 per cent of such and regions. And, although knowledge and resources emissions in 2019 (IEA 2020). Should investments in for mitigating the direct impacts of a coal phaseout coal and other fossil fuel infrastructure persist, energy on employment and coal mine workers is well systems will become locked into higher emissions, developed, understanding of the indirect, long-term increasing the challenge of limiting warming to well consequences on the wider community remains below 2°C (Clarke et al. 2022). more limited. 1 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 1 | INTRODUCTION 1.1 Study objective and communities more broadly, and about the opportunity for leveraging social co-benefits. Second, Given these challenges, the objective of this it aims to address the “how” of facilitating a socially study is two-fold. First, it aims to demonstrate sustainable transition, informed by consultations with why social sustainability (box 1) is central to the key informants working in this area. It does this by process of advancing a “just” phaseout or transition proposing a framework of interventions that decision- away from coal. It does this by reviewing what the makers and other actors supporting the transition existing literature says about anticipated impacts can undertake from the earliest stages of planning of the transition not just on workers, but on people through to post-transition community development. Box 1. Understanding “social sustainability” Barron et al. (2023) identify four key components of social sustainability (figure 1): • Building inclusive societies, by expanding access to markets, services, and political, social, and cultural spaces for all those affected—especially vulnerable and marginalized groups—in ways that promote their dignity. • Strengthening social cohesion, by promoting a sense of shared purpose, trust, and willingness to cooperate within and across communities, and between communities and the state. • Strengthening communities’ resilience, by ensuring that everyone—including poor and marginalized groups—can withstand shocks, be safe, and protect the integrity of their culture and thrive over time. • Ensuring process legitimacy, which is the extent to which a community or society accepts who has authority, what goals they pursue, and how policies and programs get implemented, from the earliest stages of transition planning through to post-transition community development. Inclusion, cohesion, and resilience¬ are the core elements of social sustainability, while process legitimacy determines the extent to which they produce social sustainability. Figure 1. Conceptual framework for social sustainability Process Legitimacy Inclusion Cohesion Design Implementation Social Resilience Sustainability Context Policy Arena Outcomes Source: Barron et al. 2023, p21. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 2 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION A social sustainability understanding of a just three pillars for successful transition: governance transition highlights the importance of a society- systems, support for people and communities, and wide approach to preparing and managing the environmental reclamation. transition away from coal. The literature on just transition (in and beyond the coal sector) converges While there are strong interlinkages between all around three overarching dimensions of justice: three pillars of the World Bank’s 3x3 framework on distributional justice, highlighting that the benefits just coal transitions, this study offers a deep dive and burdens of transitions must be shared fairly into Pillar 2: People and communities. Its value among all stakeholders; procedural justice, referring added is twofold. First, it outlines the breadth of social to the need for inclusive, transparent, fair and impacts and benefits that coal transitions may have equitable decision-making around the transition; for people and communities that are directly and and restorative justice, referring to the need to indirectly affected. Existing literature has tended to redress inequalities through economic and social focus predominantly on the impacts on coal mine empowerment (Carley and Konisky 2020; McCauley workers, paying only cursory attention to the broader and Heffron 2018). While the social sustainability affected populations. Second, while the existing perspective aligns with these three dimensions of literature emphasizes the importance of consultations justice, it brings to the forefront the importance of and engagement with affected stakeholders, this transitions being just for the whole of society, not only paper widens the scope of interventions for ensuring those facing loss of employment. This is particularly a just transition for people and communities. As well important to consider for coal transitions, which as dialogue, it highlights the crucial need for upstream occur under unique circumstances, as coal regions analytics, consensus and vision building, supporting are often geographically isolated and characterized by institutional readiness for the transition, community monoculture societies, with a strong cultural identity investments, and knowledge exchange. rooted in coal jobs, passed down between generations (Stanley et al. 2019). So, to be socially sustainable, a 1.2 Audience, methods, and scope just transition away from coal must account for both direct and indirect social impacts of the transition, and This study is produced for the Just Coal Transition be responsive to wider communities’ needs, priorities, Platform – Southeast Asia. A partnership between and vision for the future. the World Bank and the Energy Transition Partnership for Southeast Asia, the platform provides a convening This study builds on two World Bank publications mechanism for sharing knowledge and lessons that have considered the social dimensions learned to help stakeholders in coal regions across of sustainability transitions. The first, How to Asia shape an informed vision for a just transition. Implement a Just Transition: Emerging Practices in The bulk of the world’s coal-powered electricity is Policy and Governance (World Bank 2023a), shares generated in Asia, in plants with an average age of emerging practice to help manage just transitions 12 years and a typical economic lifespan of 40 years across industries, sectors, and places, and has case (box 2). The major rise in coal production to respond studies from New Zealand, Italy, Spain, and South to growing energy demand in China, India, and Korea. The second, Managing a Coal Mine Closure: Indonesia—which accounts for 44, 10, and 6 percent Achieving a Just Transition for All (Stanley et al. of global coal production, respectively—means that 2019), focuses on coal transitions and introduces the region will be impacted most acutely by future the World Bank’s 3x3 framework for addressing the mine closures (Stanley et al. 2019). So, while this study socioeconomic and environmental impacts of mine draws on global literature, it is tailored for and to the closures (appendix D). The 3x3 framework outlines experience of Asia. 3 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 1 | INTRODUCTION Box 2. Status of coal phaseout in Asia With 75 percent of the world’s coal capacity and more than 90 percent of all coal-fired plants and pipelines, the Asia-Pacific region is at the heart of the energy-climate debate. The region’s increase in coal use, mainly driven by China, contrasts with the decrease observed elsewhere, particularly the European Union and the United States (IEA 2024a). The situation varies across the Asia-Pacific region. Pakistan and Bangladesh are expanding their capacity, while in India, despite a heavy reliance on coal, capacity is declining and its pipeline shrinking. In Southeast Asia, Indonesia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Viet Nam all plan to expand, mostly from an already high capacity. Indeed, the expansion plans in Viet Nam and the Philippines are larger than their existing capacity (UN-ESCAP 2021). But there are also signs that these countries are moving away from plans to increase coal capacity and generation. Viet Nam, a signatory to the Conference of the Parties (COP) 26 phaseout agreement, has pledged to stop building new coal-fired power plants, but will allow those that have already secured financing to complete. Phasing out coal will help the country reach net zero emissions by 2050. The Philippines, which has announced plans to increase clean power generation and energy efficiency measures, has banned new coal power but will allow approved projects to be built. Indonesia will consider accelerating the coal phaseout by the 2040s, subject to receiving more financing and technical assistance, as part of its commitment to reach net zero by 2060. COP26 also witnessed the launch of a new partnership between Indonesia, the Philippines, and the Asian Development Bank to establish an energy transition mechanism to help accelerate the clean energy transition in Southeast Asia (ILO 2022). This paper is based on a literature review, focus past coal transitions offers valuable, though limited, group discussions, interviews, consultations, insights about impacts on people and communities. and feedback (appendix B). As well as covering Existing literature shows common trends in the literature in the public domain and World Bank social impacts of the coal phaseout and makes operations supporting just transitions away suggestions on how to minimize some of these. from coal, the desk-based review incorporates But it lacks comprehensive coverage of the issues, applicable insights from other sectoral transitions due to the relatively recent emergence of the just and models—such as community and local transition as an essential part of climate action and development approaches—aimed at fostering field of study. Its focus is also quite narrow, mainly low-carbon economies. The study complements covering transitions in higher-income countries such the review with data from a series of online focus as the United Kingdom, United States, and Germany, group discussions and one-to-one semi-structured and offering little evidence from lower- and middle- interviews, conducted between December 2023 income country contexts (Diluiso et al. 2021). and March 2024 with 16 key stakeholders working This paper aims to lay the foundation for deeper in the just energy transition space (appendix C). consideration of social impacts and co-benefits in The study is also informed by consultations at current and future coal transitions. the Just Coal Transition Platform – Southeast Asia stakeholder meetings on November 9–10, 2023 This paper also recognizes that each coal mine (in Singapore) and April 25, 2024 (virtual) and a closure presents unique challenges in diverse feedback round with key stakeholder interviewees contexts. Some coal communities are close to on May 8, 2024 (virtual). urban centers, while others are geographically isolated or less connected to transport infrastructure Relying on nascent literature and discussions (Siyongwana and Shabalala 2019). And in some on the social dimensions of coal and broader settings, the coal industry offers well-paid, formal, sustainability transitions, the paper aims to outline and secure jobs, while in others, it employs a the breadth of possible social impacts of coal large number of informal workers (Banerjee 2022). transitions, despite not being able to delve more The context of the transition will also affect the deeply into each issue. Historical evidence from anticipated social impacts (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022)— Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 4 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION for example, the impact of a single coal plant closure will vary from one coal mine or plant closure to the will differ from the impacts of multiple, sequential next. These challenges underscore the importance closures in an area. Finally, the influence of local, of grounding the analysis of distributional impacts regional and global political economy factors will and opportunities, as well as transition planning and produce winners and losers at the local level, which implementation, to local circumstances and needs. 5 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 2 | SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL 2 | Social dimensions of the transition away from coal The concept of a “just transition” has garnered is more challenging to operationalize. A key first step significant attention as a crucial objective for is improving understanding of both the breadth of achieving a fair and equitable transition toward a possible adverse impacts on people and communities low-carbon economy. A just transition emphasizes of a shift away from coal, and the associated social the “key principles of respect and dignity for vulnerable co-benefits of a socially sustainable just transition. groups, the creation of decent jobs, social protection, This chapter reviews evidence and current thinking employment rights, fairness in energy access and use, on both these aspects. and social dialogue and democratic consultation with relevant stakeholders, whilst coping with the effects 2.1 Transition impacts on people of asset-stranding or the transition to green and clean and communities economies” (Denton et al. 2022, p 1730). Loss of employment among lower-skilled and Given its roots in the labor union movement of the informal workers, and non-mine workers 1970s, a jobs-focused application of the concept has tended to dominate policy narratives, with a Lower-skilled and informal coal workers, and illegal focus on addressing the economic and employment miners will be directly and disproportionately ramifications of transitioning away from coal (World affected by mine closures. Unlike formal coal Bank 2023a). Miners and other workers along the coal sector workers, who tend to have higher levels of value chain have been, and will continue to be, on education and technical skills, lower-skilled workers the frontline of the transition away from coal. As such, have limited or no education, which severely restricts governments have tended to direct just transition their livelihood opportunities (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). efforts toward temporary income support, re-skilling In Indonesia, for example, a temporary halt in coal or re-education initiatives, and other forms of social mining activity in 2015-16 primarily affected workers protection for affected workers (Stanley et al. 2019; such as cleaners, support staff, and maintenance World Bank 2023a). staff (World Bank 2023b). In many countries, activities requiring unskilled labor (such as loading trucks with Comparatively less emphasis has been placed coal) are carried out by informal workers, who are on the social consequences of sustainability mostly women (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). The Indian transitions, but there is a growing recognition of the state of Jharkhand, for example, provides more than significance of justice extending beyond economic 300,000 direct jobs and nearly 1 million indirect jobs considerations (Browne, Stehlik and Buckley 2011; in coal supply chains and service sectors (CSIS and Strambo, Aung and Atteridge 2019; Vivoda, Kemp and CIF 2021). Because they lack written contracts, they Owen 2019; Williams and Doyon 2020). Advocates risk being excluded not only from transition dialogue, of society-focused interpretations of just transition but also from safety nets, compensation packages, emphasize the need for system transformation to and other short-term support. Similarly, the coal address long-standing inequities, both across and sector includes a significant population of illegal within countries and across temporal scales (World miners, such as the Zama Zamas in South Africa’s Bank 2023a), and increasingly acknowledge that Mpumalanga province, who use basic tools to extract the move toward a low-carbon economy must coal from abandoned and often unsafe mines for self- neither perpetuate current injustices nor introduce use or to sell in local markets (CSIS and CIF 2021). new ones (Setyowati 2021) (appendix C). But this Illegal miners, whose livelihoods depend on coal, are interpretation of a socially sustainable just transition most likely to be excluded from transition dialogue. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 6 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Coal mine closures also have far-reaching (World Bank 2023b). In certain communities, mine implications for labor markets, extending beyond closures can have a persistent and destabilizing the workers who are directly involved in mining shock on demand for goods and services, as operations. Impacts will also be felt by individuals displaced workers encounter difficulties transitioning working in other sectors of the coal supply chain, to new employment opportunities. This may be due as well as those with indirect ties to coal-related to limited alternative work options, a reluctance activities, such as local retail, entertainment, to accept lower-paying jobs, an unwillingness to restaurants, and other activities that cater to coal relocate to areas with higher labor demand, a lack miners and their families (Ruppert Bulmer et al. 2021). of available opportunities, or restrictions imposed In Indonesia, for example, when coal trucks were by skills required to find employment outside the rerouted from public roads in West Merapi in 2020, mining industry (Lawrie, Tonts and Plummer 2011; roadside restaurants and shops disappeared instantly Ruppert Bulmer et al. 2021). Box 3. Social impacts of phasing out coal in India To avoid catastrophic impacts on climate, India must halve its coal demand by 2040 (IEA 2021). But the transition to cleaner energy would affect around 2.6 million coal miners across the country, 70 percent of whom are informal workers (Barnejee 2022). A survey of Ramgarh coal district in Jharkhand state found that local communities, particularly those living close to mining areas, are highly dependent on coal mining for income and cannot imagine a future without coal. In their view, coal mine closures cause an immediate loss of livelihoods, pushing many people into poverty, particularly unskilled and poorly educated workers, but also, in some cases, skilled workers. Other effects include reducing employment in local retail businesses, particularly those near the mines, causing distress migration for the poor, and increasing the incidence of crime and substance abuse. Even where mines have closed, the persistence of other mining activities encourages local people to hope they can still secure work in the industry, “if not here, then somewhere else” (Bhushan, Banerjee and Agarwal 2020). Of particular concern is the impact of mine closures on informal workers. For example, the closure of the Saunda D coal mine in Ramgarh district in 2016 affected many informal workers. Those who could not find alternative work became poorer, while others continued to illegally collect coal from the abandoned mine. Formal workers were less affected, with many transferring to other coal mines (Bhushan, Banerjee and Agarwal 2020). Increased household costs and reduced transport, and other goods and services (Steadman et public investment in social services and local al. 2024). infrastructure The transition could also lead to reduced public Phasing out coal may have adverse short-term spending on social services and public infrastructure impacts on consumers who rely on it as an affordable for coal mining communities. In fossil fuel-dependent and reliable source of energy. In many lower-income economies, revenue from these fuels is a main countries, where demand for electricity is growing source of financing for social programs and public faster than supply, coal constitutes cheap and infrastructure (Laan and Maino 2022). The impacts abundant energy for cooking, heating, and transport, of a financing gap for delivering basic services are among other uses (Kalkuhl et al. 2019). As such, often felt locally, particularly in contexts where fossil phasing out coal may lead to higher energy costs fuel extraction represents the main economic activity, in the near term, particularly for poorer households, as is the case in many coal communities. Local as the transition to cleaner energy infrastructure governments in Indonesia’s East Kalimantan region, for and grid expansion often requires substantial example, collect between 25 and 75 percent of their upfront investments (IEA 2024b). This will also affect revenue from coal (World Bank 2023b). Similarly, in the consumers indirectly, driving up the cost of food, United States, one-third of public revenue in Boone 7 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 2 | SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL County, West Virginia comes from coal activities, little attention in the just transition literature funding the county commission, rubbish collection, (Maharjan et al. 2020; Porst and Sakdapolrak 2020). health department, jail and public transportation, and Necessary enablers for successful migration include contributing to the state’s education sector (Carley social networks that provide essential forms of and Konisky 2018). A decline in public spending for support, such as access to information, resources basic services, including health, education, and child- and opportunities; educational qualifications and care services will disproportionately impact women, occupational skills that improve the ability to secure and disadvantaged and excluded groups, deepening employment with the potential for increased income poverty and widening inequalities for generations to stability or higher income; and access to adequate come (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). levels of economic capital. Mobility and outmigration Another often-overlooked challenge that needs addressing is when individuals and households Although human mobility has multiple underlying affected by the coal phaseout lack the means to drivers, outmigration is an anticipated impact of migrate from difficult and worsening conditions. The the coal transition. New or alternative employment just transition literature pays little attention to this issue opportunities for former coal mine workers or workers of “trapped populations”, both within and beyond the along the coal value chain may not align temporally coal sector, but valuable insights can be drawn from or geographically, requiring long commutes or the climate-migration literature. Identifying the groups relocation (Stanley et al. 2019). And not everyone that are more at risk of being trapped in place is vital responds in the same way to this challenge. Younger, (Nawrotzki and DeWaard 2018). The poorest, most skilled male workers can often migrate, while older, vulnerable households may be involuntarily forced unskilled, manual workers (both male and female) to stay (Adams 2016), while gendered sociocultural and those with fewer transferable skills tend to be norms and practices, economic factors, and other less mobile (Aung and Strambo 2020; Lahiri-Dutt et barriers mean that women, children, the elderly, al. 2022). people with disabilities, and those with pre-existing health issues are less likely to move away (Ayeb- This impacts not only on the migrants, but also Karlsson et al. 2022; Bhatta et al. 2015). Given the their families and communities. In communities with potential exacerbation of risks for those left behind, outmigration of skilled and young labor, the result particularly women, if men migrate in response to is significant demographic decline (Spencer et al. the closure of coal mines, the “trapped populations” 2018). Research also indicates that women in mining need greater social protection and livelihood security communities have smaller social networks than men (Bhatta et al. 2015). (Sharma 2010), and if they stay in a mining town after closure, they will bear the brunt of the impacts. Their Stress, anxiety, and depression ability to rely on support from local social networks to cope with the impact of job loss and fractured In most cases, communities are ill-prepared for families will likely be limited (Sesele, Marais and van the loss of employment, which leads to poverty, Rooyen 2021), while women who become de facto declining living standards, lifestyle changes, single parents due to mine closures—because their deterioration of networks and social groups, and husbands or partners migrate or commute long erosion of individual and community identity. This distances for work—have reported feeling exhausted results in shock and stressful financial and emotional and disheartened by the additional responsibility and uncertainty about the future. Studies have indicated increased labor burdens (Dublin and Licht 2000; a strong relationship between unemployment, Lahiri-Dutt 2023). This is particularly challenging emotional distress, and health issues such as as they generally have fewer resources. Men have insomnia, hypertension, and depression, as well as likewise expressed discontent with the changes in feelings of helplessness, isolation, hopelessness, a family life as a result of mine closures, particularly the lack of purpose, loss of pride, and anger following limited time they spend with their children and the mine closure (Ackerman, Van der Waldt and Botha consequent impact on their well-being and overall 2018; Bennett 2015; Siyongwana and Shabalala 2019) family cohesiveness (Dublin and Licht 2000). (box 4). Despite these potentially negative social impacts, Mine closures affect the mental health of former migration can effectively enhance resilience, miners and their families. With men often feeling not least by helping households diversify their the burden of providing for their families, their sense sources of income or provide remittances to family of self-worth is undermined, and their identity as members who stay behind—although this receives former key actors in the energy system eroded; this Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 8 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION is compounded by the stigma against men seeking domestic violence and abuse (Aung and Strambo support (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). On the other 2020; Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). Research by Sesele hand, when the men in a household are laid off (2020) in South Africa’s Free State Goldfields found and household incomes decline, women are often that some female household heads had resorted compelled to look for income-generating activities, to forcing their daughters and sons into sex work and female employment rates rise. But these and crime to alleviate poverty caused by a decline jobs are often low paid, insecure, and exploitative in mining. Studies show that many people in the (Miewald and McCann 2004). This leads to an sex trade struggle with mental health problems— increase in women’s “triple burden” of paid work, including post-traumatic stress disorder, anxiety unpaid domestic and caring responsibilities, often and depression, and somatization—as well as resulting in high levels of anxiety and mental stress, stigmatization (Martín-Romo, Sanmartín and Velasco particularly in the context of heightened levels of 2023; Puri et al. 2017). Box 4. Social impacts of the closure of the Pilgrim’s Rest gold mine in South Africa’s Mpumalanga Province A survey of local community members and stakeholders in Pilgrim’s Rest found the following social impacts of the closure of the gold mine there. Education issues for young people: Many young people dropped out of school because their parents could no longer afford education expenses, while others relocated with their families following the mine closure. Some of the parents of the children who remained in school locally were unemployed and unable to fully assist their children’s education, demotivating some young people and turning others to substance abuse, which negatively affected the school environment. Emotional trauma and psychological stress: 48 percent of respondents reported experiencing emotional trauma and psychological stress after they or their family members were retrenched by the mine, with some expressing feelings of hopelessness, despair, and suicidal thoughts. The loss of social networks due to population evacuation worsened the stress of unemployment. Inadequate communication of the mine closure to workers, coupled with their exclusion from discussing the issue in a bargaining forum, contributed to feelings of unfair treatment and heightened stress levels. Substance abuse and excessive alcohol consumption: 54 percent of respondents identified these as significant issues. Local government officials attributed these behaviors to a lack of engaging activities for residents, particularly youth, and reported that they contributed to incidents of rape and assault. Increased crime: 83 percent of respondents reported an increase in crime, particularly car theft and shop breaking, due to a lack of employment opportunities. Despite being hazardous, illegal mining also increased, with some miners being robbed. Emigration: 54 percent of respondents indicated that many local miners had left the area, contributing to reduced employment opportunities, loss of foreign exchange, limited money circulating in the area, and a decline in living standards. Some community members said they would not leave, despite the challenges, due to their strong sentimental attachment to the area, prioritizing a sense of “home” over seeking better opportunities elsewhere. The scarcity of skills outside the mining sector posed challenges for former miners seeking alternative employment opportunities. Source: Based on Siyongwana and Shabalala 2019. 9 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 2 | SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL Place attachment, and social and cultural identity woman said, “They just took them down; we did not have a chance to mourn” (Strangleman 2016, p 479). Individuals in coal communities experience Some have expressed feelings of detachment from a profound sense of loss around identity and their community. Despite taking pride in their children’s attachment, including their sense of belonging, and grandchildren’s educational achievements lifestyle, and familial and kin connections associated and recognizing the importance of education and with living and/or working in a coal community. outmigration for long-term economic success, a The hasty removal of physical remnants of the coal pervasive sense of loss for future generations remains industry, such as pithead gear, fails to consider the (Dublin and Licht 2000). But historical evidence also deep-rooted sense of place and heritage that is shows that separating the discontinuation of coal often connected to these artefacts. Disregard for the from the lived experience of the abrupt shutdown historical identity of coal mining communities and the of other heavy industries is challenging due to its symbolic significance of such objects exacerbates embeddedness in the social fabric of everyday life the emotional impact of their abrupt removal; as one (box 5). Box 5. Grounding the coal phaseout in historical awareness of legacies of the past The phaseout of coal in Yorkshire, United Kingdom, is entwined with the intricate legacies of deindustrialization that persist long after the closure of mines or plants. These legacies are apparent in persistent economic struggles, the gradual decline of working-class communities, and the uncertainties individuals grapple with while attempting to adapt to economic and social transformations. Coal technologies were deeply ingrained in the fabric of everyday Yorkshire life, playing a transformative role in shaping the region and ingraining cultural traditions and social identities. This underscores the importance of not only exploring social, cultural, and political factors but also understanding how they impact the lives of individuals, families, communities, and locations long after the initial closure event. It calls for the coal phaseout to be grounded in historical awareness and the cultural and social context, acknowledging potential intergenerational and lasting consequences. Sources: Based on Johnstone and Hielscher 2017; Kirk, Contrepois and Jeffreys 2012; Linkon 2014; Strangleman 2016. Mine closures negatively affect social capital, networks, but sustaining these connections over as evidenced by the erosion of individual and time presents challenges. During the miners’ strike community identities, shifts in social status, and in Northumberland and County Durham in England, the loss of communal spaces due to closures or for example, there were periods of solidarity within dislocation of towns and municipalities (Diluiso et al. families, communities, and the union movement—and 2021). Even decades post-mine closure, the legacy of across working-class communities across the United poorly executed phaseouts impedes the establishment Kingdom, but this was often threatened by conflicting of new industries and activities, hampering efforts to loyalties (Shaw and Mundy 2005). promote a new identity for former coal regions (Diluiso et al. 2021; Merrill and Kitson 2017). Understanding Tension, conflict, and violence how community cohesion and social networks in areas will be reconfigured and sustained as new When reskilling opportunities are limited and energy futures emerge is crucial to foster more just compensation is inadequate for dealing with the transitions (Johnstone and Hielscher 2017). impacts of the coal phaseout, the risk of conflict, violence, and social tension increases (Ackerman, Although social identity and solidarity can be Van der Waldt and Botha 2018; Diluiso et al. 2021; strengthened when communities unite to resist or Sustainable Minerals Institute 2022). Financial and protest against coal mine closures, there is limited emotional stress can contribute to an escalation in evidence that this creates durable forms of social household conflict, domestic violence and abuse, capital and builds community resilience. The act sexual assault and abuse of women and children, of mobilization can forge temporary bonds and substance abuse among men, and marital breakdown Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 10 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION (Aung and Strambo 2020; Barry 2001; Bennett 2004; unemployment and the uncertainty it brings, along Lobao et al. 2021; Maggard 1994). For example, after with the connection between work and male identity the layoffs in the coal sector and workforce reduction and masculinity, are significant factors (Bhalotra et policies in Poland’s Silesia region, substance abuse al. 2020; Mshweshwe 2020; Sikweyiya et al. 2020). and alcoholism rose among men, and domestic Shifts in gender roles due to women’s employment or violence intensified (Stanley et al. 2019). political engagement can also play a role (Dublin and Licht 2000; Kideckel 2004). For example, following Heightened violence against women due to mine closures in the United Kingdom, some women the impacts of coal mine closure is particularly refused to return to traditional caregiving roles concerning because violence against women is (Shaw and Mundy 2005). But despite the gender- already widespread both at the domestic and work differentiated impacts of the coal phaseout, the levels in the mining sector (Mishra, Sravan and mining industry and governments primarily focus on Mishra 2024). Many studies suggest that women in addressing the environmental and technical aspects coal mining communities already face significant of mine closure and its impacts on male mine workers challenges dealing with their male partners’ work (Lahiri-Dutt 2023). Failure to address existing gender stress, often caused by working in dangerous issues in coal mining, including violence, is likely situations. As such, they face higher levels of to lead to their replication in new energy systems gender-based violence—including increased rates (Johnson et al. 2020). of domestic violence and alcohol-fueled violence— leading to personal trauma, social isolation, family Intersectionality break-ups, and more broadly, a lack of community cohesion (Cane, Terbish and Bymbasuren 2014; Coal phaseout policies rarely take into adequate Hinton, Hinton and Veiga 2016; Petkova et al. 2009; consideration how local contextual factors and other Scheyvens and Lagisa 1998). Research indicates a intersecting axes of difference and identity shape the mutual reinforcement of gender-based violence at way impacts are distributed among, and experienced the household and workplace levels in the mining by, different groups. Although disadvantaged and sector (Mishra, Sravan and Mishra 2024). excluded groups will be disproportionally affected by the direct and indirect impacts of the coal transition, The underlying causes of such conflicts, violence, no single social category or factor can explain people’s and abuse vary, but the psychological impact of unique situations or lived experience (Lahiri-Dutt et Box 6. Gendered participation barriers: the importance of intersectionality A comparative analysis of agreements between mining companies and communities shows that, in environments with a “highly patriarchal gender dynamic”, women are less involved in both the informal and formal agreement negotiations, and that gender-segregated consultations do not guarantee women’s inclusion. Certain intersectional factors—such as age, migrant status, marital status, and economic independence—can also intensify the exclusion of women. In particular, those who are young or middle-aged (and have not yet acquired elder status), migrants and women who have married into the community (and are therefore considered outsiders), widows, and single mothers, all face significant barriers to participation. However, women who possess “personal economic independence” are more active in such negotiations. Corporate culture and employee diversity within mining companies and their negotiation teams also play a significant role in shaping the gender dynamics of negotiations. Inclusive, transparent, and collaborative approaches promote the participation of women, and a company’s stance on agreement-making is crucial, with those viewing agreements as opportunities for long-term relationship development generally seeing more favorable outcomes. Being excluded from the negotiation process does not always mean women’s perspectives and needs are unacknowledged or not influential, but men are more likely to focus on women’s immediate, practical needs rather than their long-term, strategic interests. Source: Based on Keenan, Kemp and Ramsay 2016. 11 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 2 | SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL al. 2022). For example, gender intersects with various production to be lost in the same period, including other identity markers—such as indigeneity, ethnicity, 2.5 million in coal fuel supply and power plant race, caste, socioeconomic status, age, religion, employment. This will result in a net gain of nearly 9 education, sexuality, household headship, ability, and million jobs, with changes varying by region, as job relationship status—as well as with social practices, gains will not always occur in the same locations or institutional arrangements, and cultural ideologies, and align with the skill sets of jobs lost in the coal sector (IEA the outcomes of these interactions in terms of power, 2021). To achieve and sustain such employment gains, causing some people to experience more negative developing comprehensive plans for job transitions, outcomes from the coal phaseout than others policy development, and other support measures to (Crenshaw 1991; Davis 2008; Mohanty 1988) (box 6). safeguard global workers is crucial (Hanto et al. 2021). 2.2 Social co-benefits Women and other disadvantaged groups will not of a coal transition necessarily benefit from the net gains in employment (Lahiri-Dutt 2023). New and decent employment Despite the breadth of possible adverse impacts in the green sector is largely being created within on people and communities, phasing out coal also areas that are traditionally male-dominated and comes with social co-benefits that can be leveraged many of the potential new jobs will require highly through a socially sustainable just transition. The skilled workers. Women are underrepresented in the environmental benefits of transitioning away from coal renewable energy sector in the Asia-Pacific region are widely acknowledged. But, as shown in section 2.1, and globally, especially in technical and leadership there is a risk of oversimplifying this complex issue by positions (World Bank 2024b). They constitute 48 focusing on reducing carbon dioxide and neglecting percent of administrative jobs globally, 28 percent of the multifaceted social and economic impacts of the science, technology, engineering and mathematics coal phaseout (appendix E). Social co-benefits, often (STEM) jobs, and 35 percent of non-STEM technical underemphasized in the literature, also arise because of jobs (IRENA 2019). These sectors present high entry the legacy of poverty and exclusion in the coal sector. barriers, particularly for women, including gender- A socially sustainable coal transition seeks to leverage based occupation segregation, legal restrictions, these co-benefits, or positive outcomes for people and unequal access to education and training, and the communities—particularly vulnerable and marginalized disproportionate amount of time women spend groups—that arise from transitioning away from coal, on unpaid care and domestic work (CIF 2024a; such as social inclusion, enhanced resilience, and Livingstone and Jenkins 2021; World Bank 2024b). The social empowerment. intersection of other categories of social difference— such as ability, indigeneity, ethnicity, and caste—can Coal must be phased out to limit global warming exacerbate these barriers. As a result, women with to 1.5°C, which itself will generate many social co- disabilities, for example, are likely to experience benefits. Among other things, it will reduce risks to further challenges due to stigma, discrimination, and livelihoods, food security, health, well-being, cultural accessibility issues in the workplace (Livingstone and identity, human security, and challenges related to Jenkins 2021). migration and displacement, all of which are expected to worsen with a 2°C rise (IPCC 2018a; Jordan 2019; Schuster et al. 2020). Given that structural inequalities and systemic marginalization—based on gender, race, indigeneity, caste, socioeconomic status, ethnicity, age, and ability—render certain social groups more Despite the breadth of susceptible to these increased risks (Jordan 2019; possible adverse impacts on Thomas et al. 2019), a just transition could avert and minimize the scale of loss and damage experienced by people and communities, the most marginalized and vulnerable communities, in phasing out coal also comes coal regions and beyond. with social co-benefits that can be leveraged through The shift to clean and renewable energy sources can lead to net gains in employment, offsetting the a socially sustainable just decline in coal job losses. The International Energy transition Agency estimates that 13.8 million new jobs could be generated in energy supply between 2019 and 2030 under its net zero by 2050 scenario (IEA 2021). It also expects almost 5 million formal jobs in fossil fuel Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 12 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Despite these challenges, a socially sustainable just provided to both former informal and formal coal transition from coal to clean and renewable energy mining workers who are unable to return to work, could foster new opportunities for building an ensuring their financial stability. inclusive and sustainable labor market (CIF 2024b). Supporting those who are negatively impacted by For local communities, the more immediate and job displacement and economic shifts due to the direct social benefits of transitioning away from coal phaseout, and who face barriers to accessing coal include improved health, particularly arising green and higher-skilled jobs and leadership positions, from reduced ambient and household air pollution, requires a multifaceted approach to dismantle which causes almost 7 million premature deaths entrenched inequities and avoid deepening the gender globally every year (WHO 2023). Coal mining carries crisis in the world of work (CARE 2022; CIF 2024a). This significant negative externalities for human health and includes developing specialized curricula for green the surrounding environment, affecting both workers entrepreneurship training, promoting STEM education and nearby communities and disproportionately early on to build foundational skills, especially among impacting people from lower socioeconomic girls and young women, and providing upskilling backgrounds (Diluiso et al. 2021; Grainger and and reskilling programs for women affected by job Ruangmas 2018). Numerous studies have reported a displacement (CIF 2024a; Biegel and Lambin 2021; notable reduction in mortality and morbidity associated Livingstone and Jenkins 2021). Efforts should also with transitioning away from coal, including decreases focus on advancing women’s careers through inclusive in deaths from cardiovascular and respiratory disease leadership initiatives involving both women and men, (Danek 1995; Goodman et al. 2009; ILO 2015). The reducing gender segregation at work, especially environmental and health benefits alone would those likely to benefit from new job opportunities, outweigh the direct policy costs of a coal phaseout and implementing measures to safeguard women— (Rauner et al. 2020), and the resulting improvements particularly those with Indigenous, tribal, or ethnic in public health would also reduce healthcare costs identities, and migrant or disability status—from for households and governments. violence, exploitation, discrimination, and sexual harassment as they transition into roles in traditionally Transitioning away from coal will bring substantial male-dominated fields (CARE 2022; CIF 2024a; health benefits for marginalized groups— ILO 2017). Other crucial steps include addressing particularly people from lower socioeconomic inequities in unpaid care work by recognizing care as backgrounds, women and children—through a fundamental right and ensuring social protection and reduced household air pollution. It is crucial to safety nets are in place for marginalized groups, such consider the asymmetric health effects and impacts as women working in the informal sector and workers of coal consumption more broadly (Diluiso et al. with disabilities (CARE 2022; CIF 2024b; Jordan, 2021). This is particularly relevant because coal Abhilashi and Shaheen 2021). consumption in domestic households is prevalent in lower-income countries, disproportionately There are significant opportunities to improve impacting people from lower socioeconomic conditions not only for women but also for people backgrounds and exacerbating health inequities with disabilities, who often experience a multitude (Grainger and Ruangmas 2018). Globally, around 2.3 of socioeconomic vulnerabilities in the workforce billion people cook on open fires or inefficient stoves (CIF 2024b). The mining sector has the highest rate fueled by coal, kerosene, and biomass, resulting in of people with health limitations caused by working harmful household air pollution (WHO 2023). This conditions in the energy industry (CIF 2024b). Although disproportionately impacts women and children and many workers affected by mine closures in countries has been identified by the World Health Organization with well-developed disability protection policies may as the second most significant health risk for women qualify for disability status, implementing measures and girls (WHO 2016). In 2020 alone, household air to integrate them into the workplace is essential pollution contributed to more than 237,000 deaths (CIF 2024b). Prioritizing people with disabilities from of children under five (WHO 2023). mining work—especially those who are ineligible for official severance packages—for health rehabilitation Better health outcomes, such as those resulting programs, reskilling and upskilling training programs, from reductions in air pollution, can positively and other supportive interventions can help facilitate affect the educational attainment of children and their transition to new employment (CIF 2024b). It is young people, as well as improve their future career crucial to engage people with disabilities to ensure that prospects. As air quality improves, the decline in workplaces are accessible and inclusive, to facilitate health issues commonly associated with coal-related their integration into the renewable energy sector. pollution, such as respiratory illnesses and cognitive Additionally, disability insurance payments should be impairments can lead to better school attendance, 13 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 2 | SOCIAL DIMENSIONS OF THE TRANSITION AWAY FROM COAL enhanced concentration, and overall improved In areas where coal mines were developed on or near academic performance (Duque and Gilraine 2022; Indigenous territories, environmental rehabilitation Komisarow and Pakhtigian, 2022). In the Midwest in and landscape interventions have the potential to the United States, Duque and Gilraine (2022) estimate contribute to restoring Indigenous Peoples’ social, that the decline in coal use from 2006-07 to 2017- spiritual, and cultural relationships to land and other 18 not only led to improvements in math scores by natural resources that may have been destroyed 0.016 standard deviations but also had considerable or degraded. If these interventions respond to and impacts on educational inequality given that minority align with Indigenous Peoples’ self-determined values and disadvantaged children disproportionately attend and priorities, they can enhance the health of their schools near coal plants. This decline in coal use communities, given the significant role that natural resulted in a reduction of the black-white test score gap systems play in their well-being (Johnson, Parsons by 0.023 standard deviations and the socioeconomic and Fischer 2021; Sangha et al. 2015). While they test score gap by 0.05 (Duque and Gilraine (2022). will not undo the impacts of land expropriation, These educational improvements have the potential to this alignment ensures that the measures taken are open up greater career prospects in the future. respectful of and rooted in Indigenous and traditional knowledge systems and practices, thereby fostering a Post-transition environmental rehabilitation further sense of ownership and agency among community mitigates pollution and restores balance where members (CIF 2021; Monosky and Keeling 2020). threats to life and ecosystems are manageable over time (Stacey et al. 2010). Looking at the The transition could have a positive impact for environmental effects of managing ex-mining sites, disadvantaged groups who have long opposed Diluiso et al. (2021) found positive effects related to the coal industry. Health concerns, driven by the landscape interventions, including the use of natural environmental impacts of coal mining, are consistently capital, restructuring residential areas, and a higher cited across 44 countries and a range of periods degree of landscape diversity. Exposure to nature as a major motivator for transitioning away from has also been found to improve cognitive function, coal (Diluiso et al. 2021). But opposition to the coal mental health, and sleep quality (Bratman et al. 2015; industry is also driven by competition over resources— Kondo, Jacoby and South 2018; McCormick 2017), particularly land and water—as well as environmental while green spaces and natural environments offer and social grievances. For example, Indigenous opportunities for enhanced social interaction and Dayak communities in Kalimantan, Indonesia, have foster a stronger sense of community (Kelly et al. 2017; experienced contamination of water, soil and air, as Nieuwenhuijsen et al. 2017). The World Bank’s Land well as loss of access to land and forests due to mining Use Repurposing Application (box 7) helps ensure that and displacement, without adequate compensation land rehabilitation brings about social and climate co- (Atteridge, Aung and Nugroho 2018; Brown and benefits by enabling an objective assessment of post- Spiegel 2017). And in the Philippines, Semirara Island mining land use options. communities have reported severe environmental Box 7. The World Bank’s Land Use Repurposing Application (LURA) LURA is a free, web-based, open-source tool that informs repurposing project design through geospatial mapping and by prioritizing recommended economic diversification alternatives, based on an assessment of the attributed characteristics and suitability of postmining land. The consultative and collaborative nature of LURA implementation helps build and nurture trust and consensus among stakeholders. Data about the land are collected and validated with local and national governments, local communities, civil society, and other stakeholders. After incorporating their feedback, LURA generates a map that illustrates various zones and the most feasible repurposing strategies for each, considering local conditions and community requirements. The application suggests a range of postmining land uses, such as reforestation, agricultural development, natural habitat conservation, and energy crop cultivation. It also proposes the creation of facilities for renewable energy production and storage, hydrogen infrastructure, and business parks designed for low-carbon industries. Source: Based on Pohl 2022. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 14 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION degradation due to coal mining, and health problems 2020). To ensure the transition process is legitimate, it and loss of livelihood due to water pollution and land must be transformative, acknowledging and repairing subsidence have led to strong local resistance against histories of violence and dispossession (Kumar 2023). the expansion of coal mining operations (Santos et al. 2022). Similarly, in Viet Nam, residents of the Ha Long A socially sustainable just transition does not begin Bay area have protested coal-powered plants due to from a situation of justice. The distribution of the air and water pollution that threatens both health and impacts of, and social co-benefits arising from, coal tourism, a major source of income in the community transitions will depend on local circumstances and (Ha-Duong et al. 2016). local, regional and global political economy factors. But this chapter has shown that pre-existing inequalities The transition must acknowledge and redress render coal communities—and certain groups within historical injustices. Given histories of violence and land them—vulnerable to the shock of a coal phaseout. expropriation, Indigenous and frontline communities Given the limited social development benefits that often face difficulties in expressing disagreement, mining operations give to impacted communities and let alone participating meaningfully in stakeholder impoverished individuals, prioritizing the reduction of engagement processes to support the coal phaseout social inequality during postmining transitions is crucial (Kumar 2023). Including affected communities and (Meyersfeld 2016). Transitions that do not seek to address engaging stakeholders in a legitimate, open, and the uneven distribution of benefits and burdens will not fair manner can empower stakeholders and/or only fuel resistance to change, but also exacerbate pre- democratize relations between diverse stakeholders. existing inequalities and reproduce the sector’s legacy But where consent is violated, trust breaks down, or of social exclusion and injustice (Johnson et al. 2020). coal mining and closure practices are not accountable, On the other hand, socially sustainable just transitions communities can be prevented from expressing dissent, seek to leverage opportunities to redress inequalities and stakeholders are impeded from collaborating to while maximizing social co-benefits, by prioritizing ensure for a just transition (box 8; Sartor 2018; Whyte fairness in both transition outcomes and process. Box 8. Violence, expropriation, and abuse of legal safeguards to Indigenous lands in India’s coal expansion It is crucial not to overlook the historical lived experiences of violence, expropriation of Indigenous and frontline communities’ land, and abuse of legal safeguards to Indigenous lands that have enabled the expansion of coal mines and coal-fired power plants. An analysis of state violence in 64 coal projects in India finds that 87.4 percent of coal projects were associated with either medium or high-intensity conflicts, while 12.4 percent involved latent or low- intensity conflicts. In more than half of these (51.5 percent), there was mass mobilization, arrests, and violence. High-intensity conflicts involved violent conflicts over land acquisition. Understanding these historical and ongoing injustices of state violence and land expropriation is essential for ensuring a just transition away from coal. Source: Based on Kumar 2023. 15 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 3 | A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION 3 | A framework for ensuring a socially sustainable just transition Although nations shifting away from coal need by shaping policy frameworks, market dynamics, to speed up timelines compared to the past, they international relations, and social and environmental must also prioritize the fairness of the transition justice considerations. Successfully navigating these and ensure both meaningful engagement with complexities requires global policy coordination communities and the legitimacy of their actions and cooperation, and careful attention to economic (Forsyth 2014). Without this, efforts to phase out coal interests, political priorities, and societal values at will likely be counterproductive and may even slow local, national and international levels. down the speed of the transition. The framework represents a nonlinear process This chapter proposes a process-based framework for facilitating a socially sustainable just transition of upstream interventions to mitigate adverse that is iterative, flexible, and involves a wide transition impacts, leverage social co-benefits, and range of actors. The activities inform one another, facilitate inclusive planning, decision-making, and with some triggering others, and as such, may be coal transition management (figure 2). The framework prioritized or sequenced in different ways to best outlines five areas of intervention to be undertaken fit local needs and circumstances. While some from the earliest stages of transition planning through activities—such as developing strategies that integrate to the post-coal community development phase: transition planning into wider regional and national analytics, consensus and vision-building, institutional socioeconomic development plans—should be readiness, community investment, and knowledge government-led, others may be led by other actors exchange. Dialogue and participatory approaches cut involved in supporting the transition, such as civil across these five areas. Indicative or “ideal” activities society organizations, academic institutions, and/or are provided for each. the private sector. These activities are neither mutually exclusive While the proposed areas of intervention align nor exhaustive, and should be tailored to the with principles common to good development, specific context and political economy within this framework unpacks how they play out in which the coal transition is taking place. It the context of coal transitions. As well as insights is important to acknowledge the local power gathered from consultations with key informants, dynamics underpinning the transition process, lessons from other sector transitions and community which determine who stands to gain or lose from and local development initiatives have informed the the transition, and where resistance may be present. development of the framework. As such, the areas of A deep understanding of the political economy will intervention are not unique to supporting a socially aid in assessing the feasibility of proposed policies or sustainable transition away from coal; they also have actions, designing interventions that will help mitigate the potential to advance development objectives negative impacts on vulnerable groups, building more broadly by enhancing economic prosperity, coalitions, and addressing governance bottlenecks, building community resilience, promoting social among other benefits. The global political economy inclusion and empowerment, and fostering inclusive also significantly influences the transition context governance practices. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 16 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Figure 2. Framework of upstream interventions for ensuring a socially sustainable just coal transition Analytics Consensus and Institutional Community Knowledge vision-building readiness investments exchange DIALOGUE AND PARTICIPATORY APPROACHES This framework outlines five, non-mutually exclusive areas of intervention to be undertaken from the earliest stages of transition planning through to the post-coal community development phase: analytics, consensus and vision-building, institutional readiness, community investments, and knowledge exchange. Dialogue and participatory approaches cut across these five areas. Importantly, this framework represents a nonlinear process for facilitating a socially sustainable just transition that is iterative and flexible, that involves a wide range of actors, and that should be tailored to the specific context and political economy within which the coal transition is taking place. 3.1 Analytics Indicative Activities Household services Participatory risk and socioeconomic assessment (Direct) impact distribution analysis Mine closure social risk assessment (indirect impacts) Gender and social inclusion impact analysis Stocktake of civic space Public perception survey Political economy analysis Early collection and analysis of socioeconomic and the extent to which individuals and groups within coal social inclusion data are crucial for understanding communities can fully participate in society. They the context within which the transition will take include data on access to services, social protection, place. Existing national household socioeconomic resources, and opportunities, as well as measures survey data can offer comparisons between coal of discrimination, inequality, social cohesion and communities and national averages. But more granular trust, particularly those focused on marginalized data from surveys undertaken within coal regions or disadvantaged groups, such as women, ethnic and neighboring areas provide valuable baseline minorities, youth, persons with disabilities, and the information on aspects of people’s lives, including elderly. Tools such as the Coal Vulnerability Index income, employment, education, skills, health, living (box 9) provide a structured way to process data and conditions, and resilience to shocks. Integrating understand the social and economic risks associated social inclusion variables in these surveys indicates with the transition away from coal. 17 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 3 | A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION Box 9. Coal Vulnerability Index: A tool for analytics The Coal Vulnerability Index (CVI) provides a structured way to understand the social and economic risks associated with the transition away from coal. Developed to support a just transition, the CVI draws on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) definition of vulnerability and integrates three critical dimensions: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. This index was originally conceptualized by Agrawal et al. (2024), who sought to provide a comprehensive tool to evaluate the vulnerabilities of coal-dependent geographical units, such as districts, regencies, or other administrative divisions during the energy transition. • Exposure captures the physical presence of coal infrastructure, such as the number of coal mines and thermal power plants within a geographical unit. This dimension helps in understanding which areas are directly at risk due to the existing coal infrastructure. • Sensitivity considers factors like coal-related employment and revenue, reflecting the socio- economic dependency on coal. High sensitivity indicates a greater socio-economic impact when coal activities decline, making it crucial to support communities heavily reliant on coal-related jobs. • Adaptive Capacity represents a geographical unit’s ability to respond to change, measured through indicators such as Gross Value Added, literacy rates, and the multidimensional poverty index. Higher adaptive capacity suggests that a region is better equipped to manage the transition away from coal without severe negative consequences. Conceptual framework by Agrawal et al. (2024) illustrating the vulnerability of districts to coal phase-out in India. By calculating CVI, Agrawal et al. provide a Coal Phase Out (Hazard) nuanced understanding of vulnerability, allowing for the identification of the most vulnerable geographical units and the key factors driving their vulnerability. Coal Jobs District’s Social Coal and Revenue, and Economic Infrastructure In South Africa, the CVI has been instrumental Industries Capacity (Exposure) fueled by Coal (Adaptive in highlighting districts that are most at risk from (Sensitivity) Capacity) coal phase-out. In Indonesia, the index is now being applied to identify areas that require support during the energy transition, helping prioritize Vulnerability of District communities for assistance and investments to bolster resilience. Using participatory approaches in the early of vulnerability, risk, and resilience to livelihood stages of transition to identify vulnerability and shocks. They are also useful for filling in data gaps assess the potential risks of coal phaseout enrich and highlighting nuances that surveys cannot always findings from household surveys, build trust, and capture, enhancing our understanding of local empower stakeholders. Participatory methods context, vulnerable groups (who they are, where leverage community perspectives, knowledge, they are located, and so on), underlying drivers of and experiences, to ensure data collected through vulnerability, social dynamics, and cultural factors. surveys are relevant to their conditions and Importantly, they help empower stakeholders, concerns, leading to more accurate assessments strengthening social cohesion and building trust Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 18 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION among affected communities in the transition (SMEs); state, regional and energy municipalities; process, preventing outside actors from predefining private sector and financial institutions with interest in their problems and measures to address them. transition strategy; nongovernmental organizations; and public participation groups that are active in coal Systematic social impact assessments that integrate mining and clean energy initiatives. By strengthening intersectional principles anticipate the direct and understanding of diverse perspectives, interests, indirect impacts of the coal phaseout and their levels of influence, relations, and interdependencies distribution across and within social groups. Despite between different interest groups, stakeholder the severe social impacts of coal phaseouts, there mapping can lead to more equitable and sustainable is little contextual research and there are few early outcomes when analyzing the local political assessments encompassing the full breadth and economy, designing stakeholder engagement plans, complexity of these social impacts (Monosky and and developing tailored strategies that address the Keeling 2020). A social impact assessment is not a needs and concerns of different groups. one-off exercise. Rather, it is a process informed by analyzing data from surveys, key informant interviews, A comprehensive stocktake of civic space lays further and focus groups, which offers a better understanding groundwork for meaningful stakeholder engagement of stakeholder concerns about—and expectations in transitioning countries. The level of such space for—the transition. It may begin, for example, by is pivotal in determining the success of transition, identifying the direct social impacts of coal mine given the essential role of working closely with civil closure, based on defined geographical and temporal society and grassroots organizations to understand boundaries, complementing or overlapping with other the needs, priorities, and interests of workers and local analyzes that focus on economic or labor impacts. communities, especially vulnerable and marginalized It can then assess indirect or secondary impacts on groups (World Bank 2024d). Civil society organizations different population groups and over broader spatial are also instrumental in stakeholder engagement, and temporal scales, considering intended and facilitating the inclusion of diverse voices, promoting unintended, positive and negative social impacts, and transparency, and fostering collaboration across how these are influenced by the interaction of various sectors of society. Understanding the impact of civic social categories or identities, such as gender, age, space on transition efforts is therefore essential, and ethnicity, race, caste, indigeneity, socioeconomic involves considering legal and social constraints status, ability, and other forms of identity. Gender and the broader sociopolitical context in which civil and social inclusion impact assessments can delve society operates. This is especially significant in social deeper into risks for disadvantaged groups, to develop and geographical contexts where civil society groups mitigation measures that address gender disparities operate in narrow civic spaces. and systemic marginalizations in the transition process (Hill, Madden and Collins 2017; Hillenbrand Public perception surveys provide essential baseline et al. 2015). Systematically undertaking such impact information about levels of public awareness, assessments can provide essential information for attitudes, and expectations of the transition process. monitoring and evaluating the transition as it unfolds, These surveys seek to answer important questions, contributing to resource efficiency, accountability, including: Do people understand the reasons learning, and evidence-based decision-making. for shifting away from coal? Whose interests are prioritized in this shift? To what extent do they support Mapping stakeholders and key actors helps it, and what do they anticipate from the transition? ensure that transition planning and management Do they expect benefits or burdens for themselves overlooks nobody and pays particular attention or their household due to the transition? This type to already disadvantaged groups (World Bank of survey is one of the most effective tools when 2024c). While chapter 2 focuses on impacts on and developing an informed stakeholder engagement social co-benefits for people and communities, coal strategy. By fostering greater understanding and transitions involve a wider range of stakeholders with awareness among those living and working in differentiated interests and concerns. As well as formal coal regions about the objectives, challenges, and and informal workers and community representatives, potential benefits of the transition away from coal, stakeholders may include coal enterprises and they provide a foundation for meaningful dialogue associated small and medium-sized enterprises and collaboration (box 9). 19 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 3 | A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION Box 10. Assessing public perceptions on the transition away from coal in the Western Balkans Conducted in 2021, the Western Balkans Coal Regions in Transition Public Perceptions Survey is one of the largest of its kind to date, covering 21 coal regions and five non-coal regions across five coal- producing countries: Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Serbia, and Kosovo. The survey found that, although 73 percent of respondents believe that citizens should be involved in the energy transition process, awareness of the just transition concept and its implementation remains limited, with 80 percent of respondents indicating unfamiliarity with it. Almost half of respondents in coal regions—and a quarter of respondents in non-coal regions—anticipate that the energy transition will have negative consequences for themselves or their households. The survey findings highlight the importance of a key upstream step in preparing for a just transition away from coal: before engaging stakeholders, awareness-raising, public education, outreach, and capacity-building efforts are vital to empower citizens and ensure their meaningful participation in the just transition process. Source: Based on World Bank 2024c. Having an early and deep understanding of the to implementing a socially sustainable just transition political economy surrounding the coal phaseout requires a systematic approach to analysis. To address allows decision-makers to evaluate the breadth this complexity, the 4i framework can help dissect of potential social impacts, design and sequence these barriers into four key components: institutions, mitigation measures, and enhance the legitimacy of interests, ideas, and influence (box 10). By providing the transition for everyone involved (Hallegatte et al. valuable insights into potential obstacles—such as 2024). Mapping the political economy at central, state, vested interests in maintaining the status quo, or and local levels involves building on the analytical resistance to change from key stakeholders—as well groundwork described above, to understand who as local individual and institutional capacities, and stands to gain or lose in the transition, and how power enabling factors for managing a socially sustainable dynamics factor in transition decisions (for example, coal transition, political economy analyzes can help how “problems” and “solutions” are framed, and planners, decision-makers, and stakeholders design a whose narrative dominates). Successfully navigating transition that is tailored to local contexts, priorities, the diverse and complex political economy barriers and needs. Box 11. The 4i framework for understanding political economy barriers • Institutions: The established formal and informal rules, norms, and organizations that shape political, economic, and social behavior within society. • Interests: The diverse distribution of impacts and differing priorities and preferences that influence the behavior of all involved stakeholders. • Ideas: The values, beliefs, narratives or worldviews that influence the preferences and decisions of stakeholders. • Influence: The authority, power, and leverage that stakeholders can access to promote their interests and ideas, as well as their interactions with one another and with institutions. Source: Godinho, Hallegatte and Rentschler (forthcoming). Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 20 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION 3.2 Consensus and vision-building Indicative Activities National/subnational dialogues Awareness-raising campaigns Tailored communication strategies Gender and social inclusion plan Dedicated consultations with previously Co-development of a roadmap for the transition identified marginalized groups Building a shared vision of a post-coal future through needs helps ensure all voices are heard and feed into social dialogue is a key first step to successful transition visioning, planning, and decision-making. transition planning and management. Having a Stakeholders may have varying levels of literacy, vision provides clear direction for transition planners, language proficiency, or accessibility requirements, guiding decision-making and resource allocation as well as different cultural backgrounds. To address toward specific outcomes, thereby minimizing these needs, it is essential to employ accessible inefficiencies and missed opportunities. Without such communication strategies that use a wide range a vision, coal communities can remain vulnerable to of methods and channels, including Indigenous challenges, even if they support the phaseout (Yang theatre, visual arts, multimedia resources, artificial and Shanker 2023). Co-creating a vision and shared intelligence-based technologies, digital platforms, principles for achieving it builds community ownership and written materials that are clear and available in for the transition, and integrating bottom-up project multiple languages, while also ensuring that digital identification and implementation alongside top- content is accessible to people with disabilities. down financing and coordination has emerged Additionally, providing childcare support tailored to as a highly effective strategy for coordinating and local contexts, addressing mobility and access needs implementing a shared vision of post-coal futures in for the elderly and people with disabilities, covering Europe (Wong, Röser and Maxwell 2022). costs for transport and internet access for young people, and creating inclusive spaces that value Early awareness-raising campaigns and public cultural diversity, traditions, values, and the wealth of forums about the need to phase out coal enhance knowledge that exists within communities can help understanding about the transition, as well as the remove barriers to effective participation (Lahiri-Dutt local context. Helping coal communities envision a et al. 2022). Capacity-strengthening initiatives can post-coal future begins with raising awareness about build confidence and empower marginalized groups why a phaseout is needed and being transparent with the skills and knowledge they need to engage about its potential impacts on their lives and how they effectively in transition dialogue and decision-making can be involved in transition planning and decision- processes, especially in contexts where women, making. But awareness-raising campaigns alone Indigenous Peoples, young people, persons with only offer one-way interaction with stakeholders. disabilities, and other disadvantaged groups are not Expanding debate and dialogue through public forums usually heard. For example, providing young people can enhance citizen understanding of well-planned with opportunities to build soft and foundational and well-managed coal phaseouts—including their skills can enable them to meaningfully participate in potential benefits such as improved air quality and transition dialogue (Lijfering et al. 2024 ). natural environment—and approaches for minimizing their adverse effects (World Bank 2024b). Importantly, Placing women and other excluded groups at the they also help planners better understand the local forefront of dialogue and consultative processes, context and community dynamics, as well as the along with implementing strategies to support their community’s fears and anxieties about the transition participation in just coal transition decision-making and their needs, priorities, and vision for the future and leadership roles, ensures their interests and needs (World Bank 2024b). are fully addressed. Women and other marginalized groups are underrepresented in many decision-making Tailoring communication and engagement spaces. As a result, their voices, needs, and priorities approaches and strategies to diverse groups and are often unheard, misunderstood, or overlooked 21 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 3 | A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION in policies and interventions that impact them (box example, implementing policies that offer health and 11; Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). To avoid perpetuating social services to women in caregiving roles, along existing inequalities and injustices, it is important with establishing support and peer groups to enhance to recognize gender differences in the impacts of their confidence and skills, can facilitate them in the coal phaseout and the multidimensional and pursuing leadership opportunities (CIF 2024a). interdependent intersectional differences that shape the impacts on marginalized and vulnerable groups As well as ensuring their perspectives are represented (Clancy and Mohlakoana 2020; Gambhir, Green and in their communities’ post-coal vision, supporting the Pearson 2018; Hill, Madden and Collins 2017). This participation of women, youth, and other marginalized means avoiding tokenistic participation of women groups will ensure the design and delivery of financial and other marginalized groups, and incentivizing aids, compensation schemes, and other supportive and actively working with them to integrate their mechanisms are gender-responsive and inclusive. invaluable knowledge, skills, local understanding, and For example, their participation could help ensure lived experience into building the community’s vision counseling services to address the psychological for a post-coal future, and all subsequent phases of a aspects of mine closure are available not only to the mine closure. This involves identifying and dismantling predominantly male mineworkers, but also to their barriers to their participation and leadership. For families, too (Sesele, Marais and van Rooyen 2021). Box 12. Exclusion of Indigenous voices from consultative processes in mine closure planning A critical review of ten mine closure plans across five territories in Canada’s northwest revealed a consistent omission of Indigenous knowledge in their development. The extent of local community involvement in these plans varied significantly, and in the absence of stringent regulatory guidelines, the incorporation of community interests and responses to their concerns into these plans hinged solely on the discretion of the mining companies to exceed the minimum standards set by the government. The review also revealed a lack of consensus or established method for managing the socioeconomic impacts within these plans, leading to a lack of definitive approaches to lessen adverse effects. Source: Based on Monosky and Keeling 2020. Bottom-up co-development of a roadmap for and the broader political economy context, and achieving a community’s post-coal vision promotes have clearly defined objectives and medium-term ownership and sustainability of transition efforts targets. The roadmap may include, for example, and investments. Co-designing a roadmap with identifying short-term actions and medium- and communities can involve a series of workshops and long-term strategies that contribute to the collective consultations, using several channels and media to re-imagination of the community’s future. New maximize inclusion and participation, on defined Zealand’s Taranaki 2050 program, which aims to transition topics, including the breadth of social help the region navigate the shift from off-shore oil impacts and co-benefits and how to respond and and gas toward a low-emissions future, offers a best leverage them. These should take place over a practice example of how to co-design a roadmap bounded, but long-enough timeframe—for example, with and for communities (Venture Taranaki 2019; two years—be guided by local circumstances World Bank 2023a). Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 22 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION 3.3 Institutional readiness Indicative Activities Establishment of high-level body Assessment of national and Capacity strengthening of local to oversee and coordinate the local institutional capacity for and national institutions transition process preparing and managing the transition Establishing a cross-sectoral, multi-disciplinary, to ensure effective transition policy. Prioritizing locally high-level institutional body or mechanism led approaches helps ensure coal transition-related to oversee the transition process and work activities are more sustainable, contextually relevant, closely with all stakeholders, including affected suitable, and cost-effective (Coger et al. 2022; communities, will ensure more effective and Smith and Greene 2020). Promoting more inclusive inclusive policy planning and decision-making. local governance and amplifying citizens’ voices Forming a multistakeholder consultative and advisory in just transition policy dialogues can help ensure body, and, if relevant, committees from each coal- interventions address the differentiated social impacts dependent region, can help build consensus around— of the transition (Gambhir, Green and Pearson 2018; and mutual understanding of the challenges and World Bank 2023b). necessary steps toward—a socially sustainable just transition (World Bank 2024d). This helps ground Nationally coordinated fiscal support is a key the roadmap for a transition process in historical factor in facilitating a successful coal phaseout, awareness, political economy considerations, the and substantial national-level support and cultural and social context of affected areas, and coordination is required to implement bottom- the needs, priorities, interests, and perspectives up, locally led strategies. Historical evidence from of affected communities, especially historically past coal transitions, primarily from the European marginalized groups. Importantly, the body can Union, shows that national governments have had strengthen coordination and cooperation across to cover these significant costs after the economic sectors, including for stakeholder engagement, help impact of the coal transition eroded local resources build partnerships between diverse stakeholders and and fiscal capacity. National coordination can ensure different levels of government and ministries, and the efficient and transparent allocation and use of create synergies between transition strategy and funds, coupled with interventions to ensure local plans and policies and strategies in other areas such institutions and communities—including women, as employment and social protection, education and Indigenous Peoples, and persons with disabilities— learning, and women and equality, while sustaining have more direct access to finance, thereby policy momentum and focus (World Bank 2024a). A enhancing their capacity to manage and report on key first step for the body or mechanism is to define funds (Hallegatte et al. 2024; Soanes et al. 2021). clear roles and responsibilities for local, regional, and In countries with limited state capabilities, this can national government, community leaders, civil society allow for accountable service delivery and lessen the organizations, the private sector, and other local and load on the state (Andrews, Pritchett, and Woolcock regional stakeholders. 2017; World Bank 2004). Support at the local level can include, for example, increasing women’s access Aligning the needs and priorities of affected to financial resources to meet their energy transition communities with national coal phaseout and needs and priorities and supporting income- development goals, and promoting effective local generating activities and businesses managed or action, are both vital for the social sustainability of owned by women (CIF 2024a). the transition. To deliver on national commitments, strong subnational implementation systems are In this context, small grants are particularly needed to connect top-down policies with bottom- important, as they can be designed to bypass up processes. For example, Indonesia’s decentralized complex application processes and rigid criteria, governance system means that strengthening and allowing for a more direct and rapid response delineating subnational government roles is integral to those in need. Small grants aimed at the most 23 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 3 | A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION vulnerable groups can constitute a vital safety net, provide a comprehensive evaluation of enabling offering immediate financial assistance that serves and constraining factors (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). as a bridge in situations of economic distress (CIF This enables understanding of the financial and 2024a), while also recognizing and fostering their regulatory support, capacity-strengthening efforts, leadership and knowledge. Unlike larger, more and guidance needed to implement transition and structured programs, small grants provide a level enhance local government capacity in participatory of flexibility and accessibility that is often necessary planning and investment mechanisms. for social inclusion. They can also help address the wider social challenges that often accompany mine Strategically targeted and increased investments closures, as described in chapter 2. For example, they implemented within strong governance and can support initiatives that provide vocational training accountability mechanisms are vital for achieving for youth to enter employment in the low carbon a socially sustainable and just transition (World sector, offer counseling for those suffering from Bank 2024a). The World Bank’s (2024d) Just anxiety or loss of identity, raise awareness about the Transition Taxonomy, a first step toward developing dangers of substance abuse, or establish community a comprehensive, globally applicable just coal programs to combat gender-based violence. transition taxonomy, summarizes the financing needs for a just coal transition and outlines the financial It is also possible to leverage existing local responsibilities of different public and private actors. government funding transfer mechanisms to Various instruments—including grants, bonds, debt, implement community investment projects or concessions, and equity—are used to fund transition community-driven programs. In many cases, the activities, and can be applied individually or in use of available support transfer mechanisms helps combination, with the optimal mix determined by facilitate the efficient and effective implementation specific contexts and needs. But these often have of transition plans. In Indonesia, for example, there rigid funding criteria with complicated application is potential to leverage the existing Village Funds processes, hindering innovation and progress. program to channel funding from national to So a more adaptable and flexible strategy, which targeted district or municipality government levels. accommodates the multifaceted nature of transition Such mechanisms can foster greater ownership in activities, is necessary. To truly support a socially subnational governments and local communities, sustainable and just transition, these instruments must increasing the sustainability of the transition. operate within strong governance, accountability, and transparency mechanisms that respond to local Assessing and building the capacity of national and priorities and needs. This is particularly important as subnational institutions facilitates the devolution just transition activities are more susceptible to failure of transition decision-making authority to the or disruption compared to conventional, tried-and- lowest possible level of governance. With strong tested development activities, where key stakeholders institutions, decision-making authority can be typically have a solid understanding of the processes decentralized to the lowest appropriate level involved (World Bank 2024a). of governance. As well as empowering local communities to take the lead in identifying their Governance structures must be transparent own just coal transition needs and priorities, this and participative, and outcomes desirable and approach recognizes the importance of higher levels acceptable for the affected communities (Hallegatte of governance in providing financial and regulatory et al. 2024). This will prevent inadequately designed support, capacity-strengthening, and guidance or executed policies that do not consider local needs when necessary (Sartor 2018; Steinbach et al. 2022). and contexts or exceed the capacity of regional or But local governments must have the resources, local government agencies (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). capacity, technical skills, and support they need to Institutional trust plays a pivotal role, as without it, even implement transition policies and programs (Lahiri- well-designed policies and compensation measures Dutt et al. 2022). Several studies indicate that local can face resistance and pushback (Hallegatte et al. governments bear the brunt of the revenue impacts 2024). A legitimate institutional framework for a just of mine closures and are responsible for executing transition necessitates transparent, accountable, and transition programs (Mohr et al. 2020; Sesele 2020). inclusive policy processes, along with interventions Analyzing resources and capacities at lower tiers that rebuild trust—for example, by developing locally- of government and in local institutions, as well as responsive mechanisms to address concerns and the barriers to implementation at all levels, can grievances (World Bank 2016; 2024b). Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 24 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION 3.4 Community investments Indicative Activities Strategies that integrate transition Local plans for economic diversification planning into wider regional and national socioeconomic development plans Locally led, climate-resilient community and Post-mining environmental rehabilitation and land regional investments repurposing and redevelopment Stranded assets upgrading Government-led social, human, and economic employment alternatives that are sustainable and development interventions that combine structural accessible, and providing adequate social safeguards reforms with targeted support measures can to those unable to re-enter the labor market can effectively create synergies between transition support the development of a new identity for coal plans and strategies in other areas, leveraging regions (Diluiso et al. 2021; World Bank 2024a). This social co-benefits and broader development involves anticipating changes in job profiles, providing outcomes (Hallegatte et al. 2024). Examples adequate social protection for affected workers and include implementing structural policies designed to their families—including informal workers, people with enhance resilience to shocks by increasing access disabilities, and “trapped populations”—and promoting to financial instruments and services; bolstering skills development, re-education initiatives, and health care systems, social protection, social safety associated enabling measures tailored to the needs nets, and essential infrastructure; encouraging of disadvantaged and marginalized groups, such as economic diversification to create new employment people with disabilities from mining work, especially opportunities; and promoting labor market mobility those that are ineligible for official severance packages and agility (Hallegatte et al. 2024; IEA 2021). Policies (CIF 2024b; Stanley et al. 2019). Offering labor specifically designed to support impacted workers— intermediary services to connect jobseekers with such as offering early retirement packages or employment opportunities is also vital (World Bank providing financial and reemployment assistance— 2024a), particularly where there is deeply entrenched can be effectively combined with broader initiatives skepticism about how the transition will support and at the community or regional level (Hallegatte et al. benefit communities. Such investments can build 2024). These include, for example, local economic trust and confidence in the transition process, foster development programs, education and skills training community buy-in, and ensure that the transition is programs for the low carbon sector and other new both sustainable and inclusive. industries, social welfare services, and environmental restoration efforts (Stanley et al. 2019; World Bank Alongside these multifaceted strategies, developing 2024a). Such multifaceted strategies help integrate an enabling care economy—the sector of economic transition planning into wider regional and national activities related to providing both paid and unpaid socioeconomic development plans, helping advance care—is crucial for addressing the barriers that development objectives more broadly by enhancing women face entering the labor market. This involves economic prosperity, building community resilience, recognizing, reducing, and redistributing unpaid promoting social inclusion and empowerment, and care work, as well as rewarding and representing fostering inclusive governance practices. Government paid care work (CARE 2022). For example, this leadership in this area also signals a commitment to includes improving the availability and access to supporting people and communities through the childcare services, enhancing coordination between transition, and ensures adequate financing to meet responsible agencies and stakeholders, addressing transition needs. social norms to promote gender-equitable caregiving roles, and implementing workplace policies and Attracting investments in new sectors and activities, employer-supported childcare (World Bank, 2024e). diversifying the local economy, offering decent Implementing these measures can not only support 25 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 3 | A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION women’s participation and retention in the workforce also implementing measures to address barriers but also contribute to long-term social well-being to their full participation. Restoring or enhancing (World Bank 2024e), fostering a more inclusive and community assets, infrastructure, and social services sustainable transition process. is also crucial, given that their destruction or demise following mine closures has disproportionate impacts Prioritizing environmental rehabilitation and on women, Indigenous Peoples, and low-income repurposing and redeveloping land, power plants, groups (Lahiri-Dutt et al. 2022). Implementing and other coal mining assets can facilitate the measures that recognize and address historical restoration of natural habitats, and the enhancement injustices such as abuse, violence, and dispossession, of ecosystem services that local communities rely which have facilitated the expansion of coal mines on, while also ensuring the long-term safety and and coal-fired power plants is also vital. This includes stability of sites, attracting new opportunities, compensating and supporting those who have lost and bringing broader social benefits to the local family members, livelihoods, and lands due to coal community (Singh, Agarwal, and Prabhat 2024; mining activities (Kumar 2023). These efforts are World Bank 2024a). Land and other mining assets essential for fostering a more equitable and inclusive can be repurposed as wildlife habitats, forests, eco- transition process that uplifts vulnerable groups and resorts, recreational parks, museums and cultural ensures their active participation and empowerment sites, skills training centers, solid waste management in shaping their own futures. centers, solar parks, youth centers, and research and innovation hubs (Ballesteros and Ramírez 2007; Deng Effective community investments are guided et al. 2020; Gandah and Atiyat 2016; Lituma et al. 2021). by locally led, participatory, inclusive, and By integrating sustainable practices and leveraging empowering processes; without them, even well- natural, physical, and cultural assets to serve new, designed and well-intentioned initiatives can lack beneficial roles, a more forward-looking vision for credibility and prove maladaptive. This approach the region can be created, where communities can involves empowering local communities to take adapt to changing conditions and future generations the lead in identifying investment priorities, while can thrive. Ensuring that the repurposing process is also recognizing the importance of higher levels of locally led and socially inclusive can help ensure the governance in providing support, resources, and transition toward sustainable and responsible land guidance when necessary (Steinbach et al. 2022). reclamation and resource management meets the When local stakeholders drive the investment process, local community’s needs and priorities, addresses the they are more likely to support and engage with multifaceted challenges faced by disadvantaged and transition plans, increasing the likelihood of successful marginalized groups in the coal phaseout, and avoids implementation and long-term sustainability (Edwards perpetuating past injustices of land dispossession and and Maritz 2019; Hoadley and Limpitlaw 2008; Wong violence caused by the expansion of coal mines and 2012). Locally led investments can also support coal-fired power plants. innovation and new skills development, promoting new, demand-driven avenues for job creation. By Ensuring that the transition does not exacerbate investing in human capital and training, communities existing social injustices faced by vulnerable can prepare their workforce for new industries, groups and enabling marginalized groups to take ensuring that the transition is a step toward a more advantage of the opportunities that emerge will diverse and skilled labor market (IEA 2021). A locally help rectify existing social injustices (Hill, Madden led approach is key to developing transition plans and Collins 2017; World Bank 2024a). Achieving that not only comprehensively address local needs this involves implementing measures to ensure and priorities but also have the potential to be traditionally excluded groups are included in social transformative by redressing, rather than entrenching, protection and safety net schemes, and developing existing drivers of vulnerability and exclusion. other economic and social empowerment programs to target groups that are disproportionately affected This requires stringent participatory monitoring, by the transition and often excluded from decision- evaluation, accountability, and learning making and leadership roles (CIF 2024a; World Bank mechanisms that integrate gender and social 2024a). Effective measures include establishing inclusion to be put in place to ensure that the comprehensive social welfare and equality policies identification, design, planning, and delivery of and strategies—such as gender-based violence community investments are transparent and prevention and response programs—as well as accountable to local stakeholders (Soanes et al. initiatives to meaningfully engage and support 2021). Involving local communities in monitoring and disadvantaged groups and livelihood programs evaluation can provide continuous feedback, allowing tailored to the specific needs of these groups, while stakeholders to assess progress and make necessary Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 26 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION adjustments to meet evolving needs (Coger et al learning mechanisms allows for the dissemination 2021). Fostering a culture of accountability ensures of best practices and lessons learned, enhancing the that resources are used effectively, and outcomes overall effectiveness and sustainability of community align with community priorities, while integrating investment initiatives. 3.5 Knowledge exchange Indicative Activities Multicountry knowledge exchange platform National knowledge exchange platform There is a significant gap in the way we understand just transition support, what to expect and when. and address challenges around socially sustainable Multicountry platforms help stakeholders see that the just transitions away from coal, which cross- coal phasedown process is smoother when there is sectoral and multi-disciplinary multicountry and a sound understanding of the timing and distribution national knowledge platforms can help bridge. of impacts, mapped against nationally determined Understanding the full breadth and complexity of contributions and net zero emissions commitments, the social impacts of coal phaseout is challenging, and when decommissioning or closures are given that these vary by context and may take time approached as opportunities to repurpose assets to materialize. By convening diverse stakeholders to create new sustainable, inclusive livelihood across sectors—including health and social care, opportunities (World Bank 2023c). The more effective women and equality, education and learning, platforms are facilitated by a neutral convening power. sustainable finance, Indigenous Peoples and minorities, land management and natural resources, Country-level platforms, on the other hand, planning and community development, employment facilitate the dissemination of bespoke knowledge and social protection, and energy security—and contextualized to state, province, and district- sharing experiences and lessons learned, coal level needs and play a pivotal role in disseminating phasedown platforms can facilitate the exchange of policies, reforms, and initiatives. These platforms local and global knowledge. This knowledge can be engage a diverse range of stakeholders in ongoing adapted to inform policies, reforms, and initiatives in conversations, ensuring that their perspectives and different contexts and scales, enhancing institutional insights are integrated into the planning process. As capacity to prepare for and manage transitions well as delivering bespoke knowledge, they provide (World Bank 2023c). This approach can help foster technical assistance, support extensive analytical innovation and identify synergies between policies work on the social impacts of the coal phaseout, and strategies to avoid conflicts and ensure that offer learning opportunities, and comprehensively measures in one sector support and reinforce those track outcomes—including financial flows related in others. By supporting early engagement to foster to decision-making—to keep all stakeholders well trust between different stakeholder groups at risk informed. They are an effective mechanism for of being adversely affected, they can also build addressing the complex challenge of coordinating momentum for the transition and a shared vision of measures to operationalize the transition across a post-coal future. multiple ministries and addressing a breadth of issues (World Bank 2023c). Multicountry coal phaseout platforms are increasingly effective in building confidence that Effective delivery of knowledge and learning within there is a better way to manage the transition. These these platforms requires bespoke approaches platforms bring together impacted stakeholders to that are tailored to the unique characteristics and disseminate global knowledge and learning, share challenges of each coal region, as well as the diverse experiences and lessons learned, deliver online backgrounds and perspectives of the stakeholders and classroom learning, and facilitate study tours involved. These platforms bring together participants in twinned regions. As well as building trust, this with a wide range of formal education levels, work improves understanding of the many facets of experience, and degrees of familiarity with the 27 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 3 | A FRAMEWORK FOR ENSURING A SOCIALLY SUSTAINABLE JUST TRANSITION intricacies of managing coal phaseouts (World can ensure the plan outlines the individuals or groups Bank 2023c). By employing bespoke approaches that could be directly or indirectly affected by the that develop a nuanced understanding of unique transition and assess their level of interest and influence. regional and stakeholder needs, they can enhance The plan should also develop approaches for how to the accessibility, relevance, and effectiveness of their engage with different types of stakeholders, which knowledge-sharing initiatives. And this, in turn, will can range from informing and consulting to involving, foster greater engagement, collaboration, and progress collaborating, and empowering them, detailing the toward achieving a just transition away from coal. methods and frequency of communication, the information shared and channels used, and how views 3.6 Dialogue and participatory and feedback will be captured. It is also important approaches as cross-cutting to outline specific engagement activities, such as meetings, workshops, public forums, surveys, and Open, transparent, and continuous engagement feedback mechanisms, and establish monitoring and with the coal community lies at the heart of evaluation processes to measure their effectiveness.1 developing a socially sustainable just transition. To Developing and implementing a system to report back be effective, stakeholder engagement must start at to stakeholders about how their input is feeding into the earliest stages of transition visioning and planning transition planning and decision-making will close and continue throughout the post-coal community the feedback loop, while establishing a robust on- development phase. It involves active information site grievance redressal mechanism will facilitate easy sharing, consultation, and dialogue with pre-identified access for communities to provide feedback (World stakeholders who will be directly or indirectly Bank 2023c; 2016). affected by the transition. Given that a significant proportion—54 percent—of the energy transition Efforts to facilitate dialogue on just transition may minerals and metals resource base is located on or need to overcome the hurdle of eroded trust and near the lands of Indigenous and peasant peoples, skepticism stemming from negative past experiences, it is crucial to embed rights to consultation and both in the extractive industries and within a wider free, prior, and informed consent in the energy societal context (Diluiso et al. 2021; Whyte 2020). transition process (Owen et al. 2023). Prioritizing When stakeholders lack trust in institutions to manage these rights ensures that these communities are not the transition fairly and equitably, they are less likely only consulted but also have a meaningful role in to support it, which could lead to resistance against decision-making, thereby enhancing the transition’s phaseout efforts (Sartor 2018). Trust in institutions social sustainability. Importantly, this approach seeks cannot be assumed; rather, it needs to be patiently to empower local actors to participate and have a cultivated through transparent and participatory stronger voice in decision-making at various levels policy practices that result in outcomes that are both and advocate for awareness of local needs and desirable and acceptable for the public (Hallegatte et al. priorities. By prioritizing inclusivity and transparency, it 2024; World Bank 2024b). Effective communication, ensures that the perspectives of those most affected meaningful engagement with affected communities, by the transition are represented, valued and fed into and a commitment to addressing historical transition planning and design, while also keeping grievances are essential components in rebuilding them informed about the process and how to engage trust and fostering support for just transition initiatives. (World Bank 2024b). This approach helps promote Including affected communities and engaging consensus, accountability, and legitimacy when stakeholders in a legitimate, open, and fair manner operationalizing the coal transition. It also fosters co- can empower stakeholders and/or democratize learning, innovation, and local community ownership relations between diverse stakeholders. Assessing of transition initiatives (Edwards and Maritz 2019; the effectiveness of trust-building interventions Hoadley and Limpitlaw 2008). and setting realistic expectations are important, as consultation and dialogue can inadvertently lead to a Developing and executing a stakeholder engagement breakdown in trust if communities cannot see a direct plan, and revising and updating it as the transition positive impact from this. And as some benefits of the planning and implementation progress, will help transition may not materialize until far into the future, ensure effective engagement. Stakeholder mapping this is particularly important. 1 Arnstein’s (1969) ladder of participation (appendix F) provides a valuable framework for evaluating citizen empowerment and involvement in decision-making, highlighting the importance of moving beyond tokenistic participation toward more substantive forms of citizen engagement and empowerment. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 28 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION 4 | Conclusion and further work This paper has argued that addressing the broader the transition process. Having a shared vision for social dimensions of coal transitions is crucial for the community’s post-coal future provides clear success, and offers benefits and opportunities direction for transition planners, guiding decision- for the millions of people affected. It has outlined making and resource allocation toward specific existing literature about anticipated impacts of outcomes. Sustained and inclusive social dialogue the transition not just on workers, but on people contributes to the co-creation of such a vision— and communities more broadly, including loss of and a roadmap for achieving it—with affected employment, increased household costs, reduced communities and stakeholders. public investment, mobility and outmigration, changes in mental health, effects on social and cultural identity, • Ensuring institutions at all levels are ready and conflict. It has also considered the social co- and able to manage the transition and work benefits of coal transitions, such as reduced risks to together with all stakeholders, which will ensure livelihoods, improvements to health and well-being, more effective and inclusive policy planning and social empowerment. It has cautioned that the and decision-making. Governance structures uneven distribution of transition benefits and burdens must be transparent and participative, and risks exacerbating pre-existing inequalities and outcomes desirable and acceptable for affected systemic marginalization—including those based on communities. Decentralizing decision-making gender, indigeneity, socioeconomic status, disability, authority to the lowest appropriate level of ethnicity, and age—and reproduce the sector’s legacy governance while ensuring coordination and of social exclusion and injustice (Johnson et al. 2020). collaboration between different government In doing so, it has demonstrated that ensuring social levels, sectors, and stakeholders will help align sustainability along with economic and environmental the needs and priorities of affected communities sustainability is critical to the process of advancing a with national transition and development goals. It just transition away from coal. will also promote effective local action. Based on this review, the paper proposes a framework • Community investments that respond to local outlining a set of upstream interventions for government priorities and needs and are also aligned with and other actors to facilitate inclusive planning, regional and national development planning decision-making, and transition management. This will enhance trust and ownership over the process-based framework underscores the need for transition process. Environmental rehabilitation, flexibility and iteration, with activities continuously land repurposing, and stranded asset upgrading feeding into one another, and being undertaken at the can attract new opportunities and bring broader earliest stages of planning through to the post-transition social benefits to the local community, especially community development phase. In particular, it outlines when guided by locally led, participatory, the importance of the following. inclusive, and empowering processes. • Collecting and analyzing socioeconomic and • Multicountry and national-level coal phaseout social inclusion data early on, which helps develop knowledge exchange platforms, which can help a good understanding of the context within which bridge the gap between the way we understand the transition will take place. Using participatory and address challenges around socially approaches and mapping helps ensure everyone sustainable just transitions away from coal. As is heard and nobody is overlooked in transition well as building confidence that there is a better planning and management. way to manage the transition, these platforms can facilitate the dissemination of bespoke, • Supporting consensus and vision-building, which contextualized knowledge and play a pivotal role will enhance trust in and community ownership of in disseminating policies, reforms, and initiatives. 29 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change 4 | CONCLUSION AND FURTHER WORK • Building meaningful and continuous dialogue reduce the risk of the framework being used as a box- and engagement, which lies at the heart of ticking exercise, rather than an iterative, flexible process developing a socially sustainable transition, and to be tailored to the specific context within which cuts across the five areas of intervention outlined the transition is occurring. This can also help foster above. Building trust between stakeholders innovation and identify synergies between policies and and in institutions takes significant time and strategies to avoid conflicts and ensure that measures resources, and needs to be patiently cultivated in one sector support and reinforce those in others. A through ongoing dialogue and transparent and multidisciplinary approach is also valuable for compiling participatory policy practices. best practice examples across sectors and developing or strengthening existing toolkits or guidance on how The ambition of a socially sustainable just transition to implement a just transition. away from coal must be matched with adequate financing. As research and experience on how to Finally, it is important to recognize that this finance the just transition increases, costing the framework represents a set of ideal interventions or activities required to address the social dimensions of entry-points, and to acknowledge the challenges coal transitions, from the earliest stages of planning implementing this transition. Although crucial, through to the post-coal community development rebuilding trust with those affected by the transition phase, has yet to happen. But upstream financing away from coal, addressing historical grievances, and needs must be fully integrated into the just transition establishing transparent and participative governance plans that countries, regions and communities are structures require political will, significant time developing, not only to ensure adequate public sector inputs, and significant resourcing. The global political finance flows for supporting these activities, but also economy is also often a major force in defining the to attract private sector investments. context of the transition, influencing its prioritization in national policy frameworks and the extent to which The breadth and complexity of the social impacts social and environmental justice is placed at the of the coal phaseout necessitate integrated and forefront. As such, local, national and international multidisciplinary approaches (Solomon, Katz and economic interests, political priorities, and societal Lovel 2008). Setting up multidisciplinary groups or values must all be considered, underscoring the communities of practice among policymakers and complexity and depth of the transition process. Only practitioners can bring together different skillsets a sustained effort and collaboration across multiple for implementing the outlined activities. This would stakeholders can ensure a fair and equitable outcome. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 30 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION References Abraham, J. 2017 “Just Transitions for the Miners: Labor Environmentalism in the Ruhr and Appalachian Coalfields.” New Political Science 39 (2): 218–240. Ackerman, M, Van der Waldt, G and Botha, D. 2018 “Mitigating the Socio-economic Consequences of Mine Closure.” Journal of the South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy 118 (4): 439–447. Adams, H. 2016 “Why Populations Persist: Mobility, Place Attachment and Climate Change.” Population and Environment 37(4):429–448. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11111-015-0246-3. Agrawal, K., Pathak, M., Jana, K., Unni, J., & Shukla, P. (2024). Just transition away from coal: Vulnerability analysis of coal districts in India. Energy Research & Social Science, 108.Andrews, M, Pritchett, L and Woolcock, M. 2017. Building State Capability: Evidence, Analysis, Action. Oxford: Oxford University Press. Arnstein, S R. 1969. “A Ladder of Citizen Participation.” Journal of the American Institute of Planners 35 (4): 216–224. Atteridge, A and Strambo, C. 2020. Seven Principles to Realize a Just Transition to a Low-carbon Economy. SEI policy report. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. Atteridge, A, Aung, M T and Nughoro, A. 2018. Contemporary Coal Dynamics in Indonesia. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/06/contemporary-coal- dynamics-in-indonesia.pdf Aung, M T and Strambo, C. 2020. Distributional Impacts of Mining Transitions: Learning from the Past. SEI working paper. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. Ayeb-Karlsson, S and Uy, N. 2022. “Island Stories: Mapping the (Im)mobility Trends of Slow Onset Environmental Processes in Three Island Groups of the Philippines.” Humanities and Social Sciences Communications 9, 60 -w. Ballesteros, E R and Ramirez, M H. 2007. “Identity and Community: Reflections on the Development of Mining Heritage Tourism in Southern Spain.” Tourism Management 28 (3), 677–687. Barnejee, S. 2022. Just Transition and Informal Workers in Coal Regions in India. International Forum for Environment, Sustainability & Technology. Barron, P, Cord, L, Cuesta, J, Espinoza, S, Larson, G and Woolcock, M. 2023. Social Sustainability in Development: Meeting the Challenges of the 21st Century. Washington DC: World Bank. Barry, J. 2001. “Mountaineers are Always Free? An Examination of the Effects of Mountaintop Removal in West Virginia.” Women’s Studies Quarterly 29: 116–130. Bennett, K A. 2004. “Time for Change? Patriarchy, the Former Coalfields and Family Farming.” Sociologia Ruralis 44: 147–166. Bennett, K. 2015. “Women and Economy: Complex Inequality in a Post-industrial Landscape.” Gender, Place and Culture: A Journal of Feminist Geography 22(9): 1287–1304. Bhalotra, S R, Kambhampati, U, Rawlings, S and Zahra, S. 2020. Intimate Partner Violence: The Influence of Job Opportunities for Men and Women. Policy research working paper, no. WPS 9118. Washington DC: World Bank Group. 31 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change REFERENCES Bhatta, G D, Aggarwal, P K, Poudel, S and Belgrave, D A. 2015. “Climate-induced Migration in South Asia: Migration Decisions and the Gender Dimensions of Adverse Climatic Events.” Journal of Rural and Community Development 10(4): 1–23. Bhushan, C, Banerjee, S and Agarwal, S. 2020. Just Transition in India. An Inquiry into the Challenges for a Post- Coal Future. International Forum for Environment, Sustainability & Technology. Biegel, S and Lambin, S. 2021. Gender and Climate Investment: A Strategy for Unlocking a Sustainable Future. GenderSmart. Bratman, G N, Daily, G C, Levy, B J and Gross, J J. 2015. “The Benefits of Nature Experience: Improved Affect and Cognition.” Landscape and Urban Planning 138: 41–50. Brown, B and Spiegel, S J. 2017. “Resisting Coal: Hydrocarbon Politics and Assemblages of Protest in the UK and Indonesia.” Geoforum 85: 101–111. Browne, A L, Stehlik, D and Buckley, A. 2011. “Social Licenses to Operate: For Better Not for Worse; For Richer Not for Poorer? The Impacts of Unplanned Mining Closure for ‘Fence Line’ Residential Communities.” Local Environment 16(7): 707–25. Cane, I, Terbish, A and Bymbasuren, O. 2014. Mapping Gender-Based Violence and Mining Infrastructure in Mongolian Mining Communities. AM4DC Action research report. Action Mining for Development Centre, Queensland. CARE. 2022. Making the Green Transition Work for Women: Unlocking Gender-just Economic Opportunities in the Era of Crisis Recovery. CARE International, Switzerland. Carley, S and Konisky, D M. 2020. “The Justice and Equity Implications of the Clean Energy Transition.” Nature Energy 5: 569–577. Clancy, J S and Mohlakoana, N. 2020. “Gender Audits: An Approach to Engendering Energy Policy in Nepal, Kenya and Senegal.” Energy Research & Social Science 62: 101378. Clarke, L, Wei, Y-M, De La Vega Navarro, A, Garg, A, Hahmann, A N, Khennas, S, Azevedo, I M L, Löschel, A, Singh, A K, Steg, L, Strbac, G and Wada, K. 2022. “Energy Systems.” In IPCC. 2022. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by P R Shukla, J Skea, R Slade, A Al Khourdajie, R van Diemen, D McCollum, M Pathak, S Some, P Vyas, R Fradera, M Belkacemi, A Hasija, G Lisboa, S Luz and J Malley. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, USA: Cambridge University Press. CIF. 2021. Empowering Indigenous Women to Integrate Traditional Knowledge and Practices in Climate Action. Washington DC: Climate Investment Funds. CIF. 2024a. Women-led Coal Transitions: A Background Brief Providing Rationale for a Dedicated Focus on Gender Equality and Women Leadership in Planning and Implementing Successful Coal Transitions. Washington DC: Climate Investment Funds. CIF. 2024b. Disability Inclusion in Climate Finance: A Background Paper for the Disability Inclusion Approach for Climate Investment Funds. Washington DC: Climate Investment Funds. Climate Analytics. 2019. Global and Regional Coal Phase-out Requirements of the Paris Agreement: Insights from the IPCC Special Report on 1.5°C. Berlin: Climate Analytics. Coger, T, Corry, S and Gregorowski, R. 2021. Reshaping Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning for LocallyLed Adaptation. Working Paper. Washington DC: World Resources Institute. Coger, T, Dinshaw, A, Tye, S, Kratzer, B, Aung, M T, Cunningham, E, Ramkissoon, C, Gupta, S, Bodrud-Doza, Md, Karamallis, A, Mbewe, S, Granderson, A, Dolcemascolo, G, Tewary, A, Mirza, A and Carthy, A. 2022. Locally Led Adaptation: From Principles to Practice. Washington DC: World Resource Institute. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 32 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Crenshaw, K. 1991. “Mapping the Margins: Intersectionality, Identity Politics, and Violence against Women of Color.” Stanford Law Review 43: 1241–1299. CSIS and CIF. 2021. Understanding Just Transitions in Coal-Dependent Communities: Case Studies from Mpumalanga, South Africa, and Jharkhand, India. Cui, R Y, Hultman, N, Edwards, M R, He, L, Sen, A, Surana, K, McJeon, H, Iyer, G, Patel, P, Yu, S, Nace, T and Shearer, C. 2019. “Quantifying Operational Lifetimes for Coal Power Plants under the Paris Goals.” Nature Communications 10(1): 4759. Danek, M. 1995. “Energy, Water and the Environment in the Czech Republic: An Overview.” Proceedings of the Institution of Civil Engineers 112: 260–7. Davis, K. 2008. “Intersectionality as Buzzword: A Sociology of Science Perspective on What Makes a Feminist Theory Successful.” Feminist Theory 9(1): 67–85. Deng, D Q, Jiang, F F, Duan, Y and Peng, L. 2020. “Solid Waste Management in Urban Mines Based on Resource Reutilization Mode of Cleaner Production.” Journal of Mines, Metals and Fuels 68(2). Denton, F, Halsnæs, K, Akimoto, K, Burch, S, Diaz Morejon, C, Farias, F, Jupesta, J, Shareef, A, Schweizer-Ries, P, Teng, F and Zusman, E. 2022. “Accelerating the Transition in the Context of Sustainable Development.” In IPCC. 2022. Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change. Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by P R Shukla, J Skea, R Slade, A Al Khourdajie, R van Diemen, D McCollum, M Pathak, S Some, P Vyas, R Fradera, M. Belkacemi, A Hasija, G Lisboa, S Luz and J Malley. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US: Cambridge University Press. Diluiso, F, Walk, P, Manych, N, Cerutti, N, Chipiga, V, Workman, A, Ayas, C, Yiyun Cui, R, Cui, D, Song, K, Banisch, L A, Moretti, N, Callaghan, M W, Clarke, L, Creutzig, F, Hilaire, J, Jotzo, F, Kalkuhl, M, Lamb, W F, Löschel, A, Müller-Hansen, F, Nemet, G F, Oei, P-Y, Sovacool, B K, Steckel, J C, Thomas, S, Wiseman, J and Minx, J C. 2021. “Coal Transitions—Part 1: A Systematic Map and Review of Case Study Learnings from Regional, National, and Local Coal Phase-Out Experiences.” Environmental Research Letters, 16: 113003. Dublin, T and Licht, W. 2000. “Gender and Economic Decline: The Pennsylvania Anthracite Region, 1920– 1970.” The Oral History Review 27: 81–97. Duque, V and Gilraine, M. 2022. “Coal Use, Air Pollution, and Student Performance.” Journal of Public Economics 213, 104712. Edenhofer, O, Steckel, J C, Jakob, M and Bertram, C. 2018. “Reports of Coal’s Terminal Decline May Be Exaggerated.” Environmental Research Letters 13: 1–9. Edwards, J and Maritz, A. 2019. “Social Aspects of Mine Closure: The Elephant in the Room.” In The Proceedings of the 13th International Conference on Mine Closure, edited by A Fourie and M Tibbett, 305–316. Perth, Australia: Australian Center for Geomechanics. Forsyth, T. 2014. “Climate Justice is Not Justice.” Geoforum 54: 230–232. Gambhir, A, Green, F and Pearson, P. 2018. Towards a Just and Equitable Low-carbon Energy Transition. Grantham Institute/Imperial College London Briefing Paper No.26. London: Imperial. Gandah, F and Atiyat, D. 2016. “Re-use of Abandoned Quarries; Case Study of Eco-tourism and Rangers Academy Ajloun – Jordan. Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering. 6, 238. Godinho, C, Hallegatte, S and Rentschler, J. Forthcoming. What Do We Know about the Political Economy of Climate Policies? Reviewing the Literature through the 4i’s—Institutions, Interests, Ideas, and Influence. Washington DC: World Bank. Goodman, P G, Rich, D Q, Zeka, A, Clancy, L and Dockery, D W. 2009. “Effect of Air Pollution Controls on Black Smoke and Sulfur Dioxide Concentrations across Ireland.” Journal of the Air and Waste Management Association 59: 207–13. 33 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change REFERENCES Grainger, C and Ruangmas, T. 2018. “Who Wins from Emissions Trading? Evidence from California.” Environmental and Resource Economics 71: 703–27. Ha-Duong, M, Truong, A H, Nguyen, H N and Trinh, H A N. 2016. “Synthesis Report on Socio-environmental Impacts of Coal and Coal-fired Power Plants in Viet Nam,” Working Papers hal-01441680, HAL. https://enpc. hal.science/hal-01441680. Hallegatte, S, Godinho, C, Rentschler, J, Avner, P, Dorband, I I, Knudsen, C, Lemke, J and Mealy, P. 2024. Within Reach: Navigating the Political Economy of Decarbonization. Washington DC: World Bank. http:// hdl.handle.net/10986/40601. Hanto, J, Krawielicki, L, Krumm, A, Moskalenko, N, Löffler, K, Hauenstein, C and Oei, P-Y. 2021. “Effects of Decarbonization on the Energy System and Related Employment Effects in South Africa.” Environmental Science and Policy, 124: 73–84. Hill, C, Madden, C and Collins, N. 2017. A Guide to Gender Impact Assessment for the Extractive Industries. Oxfam, Melbourne. Hillenbrand E, Karim, N, Mohanraj, P and Wu, D. 2015. Measuring Gender-transformative Change: A Review of Literature and Promising Practices. CARE USA Working Paper. https://www.care.org/news-and-stories/ resources/measuring-gender-transformative-change-a-review-of-literature-and-promising-practices/. Hinton, J, Hinton, B and Veiga, M. 2016. “Women in Artisanal and Small-scale Mining in Africa.” In Women Miners in Developing Countries: Pit Women and Others, edited by M Macintyre and K Lahiri-Dutt. Abingdon, Oxon: Routledge. Hoadley, E M and Limpitlaw, D. 2008. “Preparation for Closure — Community Engagement and Readiness Starting with Exploration.” In The Proceedings of the Third International Seminar on Mine Closure, edited by A B Fourie, M Tibbett, I M Weiersbye and P J Dye, 845–851. Johannesburg, South Africa: Australian Center for Geomechanics. IEA. 2020. Methane Tracker 2020. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. IEA. 2021. Net Zero by 2050 A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector. Paris, France: International Energy Agency. IEA. 2024a. Coal 2023. Analysis and forecast to 2026. International Energy Agency IEA. 2024b. Accelerating Just Transitions for the Coal Sector: Strategies for Rapid, Secure and People-Centered Change. International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/reports/accelerating-just-transitions-for-the- coal-sector ILO. 2015. A Just Transition for All: Can the Past Inform the Future? vol 6. Geneva: International Labor Organization. ILO. 2017. Gender, Labor and a Just Transition Towards Environmentally Sustainable Economies and Societies for All. Geneva: International Labor Organisation. ILO. 2022. A Just Energy Transition in Southeast Asia. The Impacts of Coal Phase-Out on Jobs. Geneva: International Labor Organization IPCC. 2018a. “Summary for Policymakers.” In Global warming of 1.5°C. An IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, Sustainable Development, and Efforts to Eradicate Poverty, edited by V Masson Delmotte, V, P Zhai, H-O Pörtner, D Roberts, J Skea, P R Shukla, A Pirani, W Moufouma-Okia, C Péan, R Pidcock, S Connors, J B R Matthews, Y Chen, X Zhou, M I Gomis, E Lonnoy, T Maycock, M Tignor and T Waterfield, 3–24. Geneva, Switzerland: World Meteorological Organization. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 34 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION IPCC. 2018b. Global Warming of 1.5°C: an IPCC Special Report on the Impacts of Global Warming of 1.5°C above Pre-industrial Levels and Related Global Greenhouse Gas Emission Pathways, in the Context of Strengthening the Global Response to the Threat of Climate Change, edited by V Masson-Delmotte, P Zhai, H-O Pörtner, D Roberts, J Skea, P R Shukla, A Pirani, W Moufouma-Okia, C Péan, R Pidcock, S Connors, J B R Matthews, Y Chen, X Zhou, M I Gomis, E Lonnoy, T Maycock, M Tignor, and T Waterfield. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US: Cambridge University Press. IPCC. 2022. “Summary for Policymakers.” In Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, edited by H-O Pörtner, D C Roberts, E S Poloczanska, K Mintenbeck, M Tignor, A Alegría, M Craig, S Langsdorf, S Löschke, V Möller and A Okem, 3–33. Cambridge, UK and New York, NY, US: Cambridge University Press. IRENA. 2019. Renewable Energy: A Gender Perspective. Abu Dhabi: International Renewable Energy Agency. Jakob, M, Steckel, J C, Jotzo, F, Sovacool, B L, Cornelsen, L, Chandra, R, Edenhofer, O, Holden, C, Löschel, A, Nace, T, Robins, N, Suedekum, J and Urpelainen, J. 2020. “The Future of Coal in a Carbon-constrained Climate.” Nature Climate Change 10(8): 704–707. Johnson, O W, Han, J Y-C, Knight, A-L., Mortensen, S, Aung, M T, Boyland, M and Resurrección, B P. 2020. “Intersectionality and Energy Transitions: A Review of Gender, Social Equity and Low-carbon Energy.” Energy Research and Social Science 70. Johnson, D, Parsons, M and Fisher, K. 2021. “Engaging Indigenous Perspectives on Health, Wellbeing and Climate Change. A New Research Agenda for Holistic Climate Action in Aotearoa and Beyond.” Local Environment 26(4): 477–503. Johnstone, P and Hielscher, S. 2017. “Phasing Out Coal, Sustaining Coal Communities? Living with Technological Decline in Sustainability Pathways.” Extractive Industries and Society 4: 457–61. Jordan, J C. 2019. “Deconstructing Resilience: Why Gender and Power Matter in Responding to Climate Stress in Bangladesh.” Climate and Development 11(2): 167–179. Jordan, J C, Abhilashi, R and Shaheen, A. 2021. Gender-sensitive Social Protection in the Face of Climate Risk. A Study in Uttar Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh, India. London: IIED. https://www.iied. org/20456iied. Kalkuhl, M, Steckel, J, Montrone, L, Jakob, M, Peters, J and Edenhofer, O. 2019. “Successful Coal Phase-out Requires New Models of Development.” Nature Energy 4: 897–900. https://www.nature.com/articles/ s41560-019-0500-5. Keenan J C, Kemp, D L. and Ramsay, R B. 2016. “Company–community Agreements, Gender and Development.” Journal of Business Ethics, 135(4): 607–615. Kelly, M E, Duff, H, Kelly, S, McHugh Power, J E, Brennan, S, Lawlor, B A and Loughrey, D G. 2017. “The Impact of Social Activities, Social Networks, Social Support and Social Relationships on the Cognitive Functioning of Healthy Older Adults: A Systematic Review.” Systematic Reviews 6: 259. Kideckel, D. 2004. “Miners and Wives in Romania’s Jiu Valley: Perspectives on Postsocialist Class, Gender, and Social Change.” Identities 11: 39–63. Kirk, J, Contrepois, S and Jefferys, S. 2012. Changing Work and Community Identities in European Regions. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan. Komisarow, S and Pakhtigian, E L. 2022. “Are Power Plant Closures a Breath of Fresh Air? Local Air Quality and School Absences.” Journal of Environmental Economics and Management 112, 102569. Kondo, M C, Jacoby, S F and South, E C. 2018. “Does Spending Time Outdoors Reduce Stress? A Review of Real-Time Stress Response to Outdoor Environments.” Health Place 51: 136–150. 35 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change REFERENCES Kumar, M. 2023. “Violent Transitions: Towards a Political Ecology of Coal and Hydropower in India.” Climate and Development. Laan, T and Maino, A G. 2022. Boom and Bust: The Fiscal Implications of Fossil Fuel Phase-out in Six Large Emerging Economies. International Institute for Sustainable Development Global Subsidies Initiative. https:// www.iisd.org/system/files/2022-07/fossil-fuel-phase-out-briics-economies.pdf. Lahiri-Dutt, K. 2023. “Framing a Gender Transformative Post-coal Future for Just Transition: A Feminist Manifesto.” Energy Research and Social Science 100: 103097. Lahiri-Dutt, K, Dowling, S, Pasaribu, D, Chowdhury, A R, Do, H and Talukdar, R. 2022. Just Transition for All: A Feminist Approach for the Coal Sector. Washington DC: World Bank. Lawrie, M, Tonts, M and Plummer, P. 2011. “Boomtown, Resource Dependence and Socio-economic Wellbeing.” Australian Geographer 42(2): 139–164. Lijfering, S, Kazimierczuk, A, Abagun, O, Manya, V, Vale, B, Karanja, Y and Bikitsha, P. 2024. (Em)powering the Future Opportunities for Youth in a Just Transition in Africa. INCLUDE Knowledge Platform. https:// includeplatform.net/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/empowering_the_future.pdf. Linkon, S. 2014. “The Half-life of Deindustrialization: Twenty-First Century Narratives of Work, Place and Identity.” Paper presented at Deindustrialization and its Aftermath: Class, Culture and Resistance, Montreal, Quebec: Centre for Oral History and Digital Storytelling/Scottish Oral History Centre, 1–4 May. Lituma, C M, Cox, J J, Spear, S F, Edwards, J W, De La Cruz, J L, Muller, L I and Ford, W M. 2021. “Terrestrial Wildlife in the Post-mined Appalachian Landscape: Status and Opportunities.” Appalachia’s Coal-Mined Landscapes, 135–166. Livingstone, D and Jenkins, O. 2021 Women’s Economic Empowerment and Climate Change: A Primer. London: WOW helpdesk guidance note no. 3. Work and Opportunities for Women. Lobao, L, Partridge, M, Hean, O, Kelly, P, Chung, S and Ruppert Bulmer, E. 2021. Socioeconomic Transition in the Appalachia Coal Region: Some Factors of Success. Produced for the World Bank, under the Global Support to Coal Regions in Transition project. Maggard, S W. 1994. “From Farm to Coal Camp to Back Office and McDonald’s: Living in the Midst of Appalachia’s Latest Transformation.” Journal of the Appalachian Studies Association 6: 14–38. Maharjan, A, Safra de Campos, R, Singh, C, Das, S, Srinivas, A, Bhuiyan, M R A, Ishaq, S, Umar, M A, Dilshad, T, Shrestha, K, Bhadwal, S, Ghosh, T, Suckall, N and Vincent, K. 2020. “Migration and Household Adaptation in Climate-sensitive Hotspots in South Asia.” Current Climate Change Reports 6(1): 1–16. www.doi.org/10.1007/ s40641-020-00153-z. Martín-Romo, L, Sanmartín, F J and Velasco, J. 2023. “Invisible and Stigmatized: A Systematic Review of Mental Health and Risk Factors among Sex Workers.” Acta Psychiatrica Scandinavica 148(3): 255–264. McCauley, D and Heffron, R. 2018. “Just Transition: Integrating Climate, Energy and Environmental Justice.” Energy Policy 119: 1–7. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0301421518302301. McCormick, R. 2017. “Does Access to Green Space Impact the Mental Well-being of Children: A Systematic Review.” Journal of Pediatric Nursing 37: 3–7. Merrill, T and Kitson, L. 2017. End of Coal Mining in South Wales: Lessons Learned from Industrial Transformation. Winnipeg: International Institute for Sustainable Development. Meyersfeld, B. 2017. “Empty Promises and the Myth of Mining: Does Mining Lead to Pro-poor Development?” Business and Human Rights Journal 2(1): 31–53. Miewald, C E and McCann, E J 2004. “Gender Struggle, Scale, and the Production of Place in the Appalachian Coalfields. Environment and Planning A 26: 1045–1064. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 36 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Minx, J C, Lamb, W F, Andrew, R M, Canadell, J G, Crippa, M, Döbbeling, N, Forster, P M, Guizzardi, D, Olivier, J, Peters, G P, Pongratz, J, Reisinger, A, Rigby, M, Saunois, M, Smith, S J, Solazzo, E and Tian, H. 2021. “A Comprehensive and Synthetic Dataset for Global, Regional, and National Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector 1970–2018 with an Extension to 2019.” Earth System Science Data 13(11): 5213–5252. Mishra, P P, Sravan, C and Mishra, S K. 2024. “Extracting Empowerment: A Critical Review on Violence Against Women in Mining and Mineral Extraction.” Energy Research and Social Science 109. Mohanty, C T. 1988. “Under Western Eyes: Feminist Scholarship and Colonial Discourses.” Feminist Review 30(1): 61-88. Mohr, K, Castro, S R, Meyer, K, Groot, A M M, Niño, N D and Vallejo, M L R 2020. Gender-responsive Climate Policy: A Case Study of the Colombian Coal Sector. Policy Paper; Berlin and Bogota: Polis180 and Transforma. Monforti, F F, Crippa, M, Guizzardi, D, Muntean, M, Schaaf, E, Lo Vullo, E, Solazzo, E, Olivier, J and Vignati, E. 2021. EDGAR v6.0 Greenhouse Gas Emissions. European Commission, Joint Research Centre (JRC) [Dataset]. Luxembourg: European Commission. Monosky, M and Keeling, A. 2020. “Planning for Social and Community-engaged Closure: A Comparison of Mine Closure Plans from Canada’s Territorial and Provincial North.” Journal of Environmental Management 27: 111324. Mshweshwe, L. 2020. “Understanding Domestic Violence: Masculinity, Culture, Traditions.” Heliyon 6(10): e05334. Nawrotzki, R J and DeWaard, J. 2018. “Putting Trapped Populations into Place: Climate Change and Inter- district Migration Flows in Zambia.” Regional Environmental Change 18(2): 533-546. Nieuwenhuijsen, M J, Khreis, H, Triguero-Mas, M, Gascon, M and Dadvand, P. 2017. “Fifty Shades of Green: Pathway to Healthy Urban Living.” Epidemiology 28: 63–71. Owen, J R, Kemp, D, Lechner, A M, Harris, J, Zhang, R. and Lèbre, E. 2023. “Energy Transition Minerals and their Intersection with Land-connected Peoples.” Nature Sustainability 6: 203–211. Petkova, V, Lockie, S, Rolfe, J, and Ivanova, G. 2009 “Mining Developments and Social Impacts on Communities: Bowen Basin Case Studies.” Rural Society 19(3): 211–228. Pohl, W. 2022. “Tech Tools Help Map a Future for Post-coal Communities.” World Bank blogs, September 14. https://blogs.worldbank.org/en/energy/tech-tools-help-map-future-post-coal-communities. Porst, L and Sakdapolrak, P. “2020: Gendered Translocal Connectedness: Rural-Urban Migration, Remittances, and Social Resilience in Thailand.” Population, Space and Place 26(4): e2314, https://doi.org/10.1002/ psp.2314. Puri, N, Shannon, K, Nguyen, P, Goldenberg, S M. 2017. “Burden and Correlates of Mental Health Diagnoses among Sex Workers in an Urban Setting.” BMC Women’s Health 17(1): 133. Rauner S, Bauer N, Dirnaichner A, Dingenen R V, Mutel C and Luderer G. 2020. “Coal-exit Health and Environmental Damage Reductions Outweigh Economic Impacts.” Nature Climate Change 10: 308–312. Ruppert Bulmer, E, Pela, K, Eberhard-Ruiz, A and Montoya, J. 2021. Global Perspective on Coal Jobs and Managing Labor Transition Out of Coal: Key Issues and Policy Responses. Washington DC: World Bank. https://hdl.handle.net/10986/37118. Sangha, A K, Le Brocque, A, Costanza, R and Cadet-James, Y. 2015. “Ecosystems and Indigenous Well-being: An Integrated Framework.” Global Ecology and Conservation 4: 197–206. Santos, C A G, Mishra, M, do Nascimento, T V M, Dash, M K, da Silva, R M and Acharyya, T. 2022. “Mining Impacts on Forest Cover Change in a Tropical Forest Using Remote Sensing and Spatial Information from 2001–2019: A Case Study of Odisha (India).” Journal of Environmental Management 302: 114067. Elsevier Ltd. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114067. 37 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change REFERENCES Sartor, O. 2018. Implementing Coal Transitions: Insights from Case Studies of Major Coal-consuming Countries. Paris: Climate Strategies and IDDRI. Scheyvens, R and Lagisa, L. 1998. “Women, Disempowerment and Resistance: An Analysis of Logging and Mining Activities in the Pacific.” Singapore Journal of Tropical Geography 19(1): 51–70. Schuster, R C, Butler, M S, Wutich, A, Miller, J D and Young, S L. 2020. “‘If There is No Water, We Cannot Feed our Children’: The Far-reaching Consequences of Water Insecurity on Infant Feeding Practices and Infant Health across 16 Low- and Middle-income Countries.” American Journal of Human Biology 32(1): e23357. Sesele, K. 2020. “Women and Mining Decline in the Free State Goldfield.” PhD Thesis. Centre for Development Support, Faculty of Economic and Management Sciences, University of the Free State. Sesele, K, Marais, L and van Rooyen, D. 2021. “Women and Mine Closure: A Case Study of Policy in South Africa.” Resources Policy 72: 102059. Setyowati, A B. 2021. “Mitigating Inequality with Emissions? Exploring Energy Justice and Financing Transitions to Low Carbon Energy in Indonesia.” Energy Research and Social Science 71: 101817. Sharma, S. 2010. “The Impact of Mining on Women: Lessons from the Coal Mining Bowen Basin of Queensland, Australia.” Impact Assessment and Project Appraisal 28(3): 201–215. Shaw, M and Mundy, M. 2005. “Complexities of Class and Gender Relations: Recollections of Women Active in the 1984–5 Miner’s Strike.” Capital and Class 29: 151–174. Sikweyiya, Y, Addo-Lartey, A A, Alangea, D O, Dako-Gyeke, P, Chirwa, E D, Coker-Appiah, D, Adanu, R M K and Jewkes, R. 2020. “Patriarchy and Gender-inequitable Attitudes as Drivers of Intimate Partner Violence against Women in the Central Region of Ghana.” BMC Public Health 20: 682. Singh A, Agarwal S and Prabhat A. 2024. “A Multi-criteria Decision Framework to Evaluate Sustainable Alternatives for Repurposing of Abandoned or Closed Surface Coal Mines.” Frontiers in Earth Science, 12: 1330217. Siyongwana, P Q and Shabalala, A. 2019. “The Socio-economic Impacts of Mine Closure on Local Communities: Evidence from Mpumalanga Province in South Africa.” GeoJournal 84: 367–380. www.doi.org/10.1007/ s10708-018-9864-5. Smith, B and Greene, S. 2020. Building Local Impact for Better Access to Climate Finance. London: IIED. https://www.iied.org/17769iied. Smith, C J, Foster, P M, Allen, M, Fuglestveldt, J, Millar, R J, Rogelj, J and Zickfeld, K. 2019. “Current Fossil Fuel Infrastructure Does Not Yet Commit Us to 1.5°C Warming.” Nature Communications 10(1): 101. Soanes, M, Bahadur, A, Shakya, C, Smith, B, Patel, S, Rumbaitis del Rio, C, Coger, T, Dinshaw, A, Patel, S, Huq, S, Musa, M, Rahman, M, Gupta, S, Dolcemascolo, G and Mann, T. 2021. Principles for Locally Led Adaptation. London: International Institute for Environment and Development. https://www.iied.org/10211iied. Solomon, F, Katz, E and Lovel, R. 2008. “Social Dimensions of Mining: Research, Policy and Practice Challenges for the Minerals Industry in Australia.” Resources Policy 33(3): 142–149. Spencer, T, Colombier, M, Sartor, O, Garg, A, Tiwari, V, Burton, J, Caetano, T, Green, F, Teng, F and Wiseman, J. 2018. “The 1.5°C Target and Coal Sector Transition: At the Limits of Societal Feasibility.” Climate Policy 18(3): 335–351. Stacey, J, Naudé, A, Hermanus, M and Frankel, P. 2010. The Economic Aspects of Mine Closure and Sustainable Development. Literature Overview of Lessons for the Socio-economic Aspects of Closure. Report 1 of 2. Project 73835, Coaltech Research Association. Centre for Sustainability in Mining and Industry, University of the Witwatersrand. Stanley, M C, Strongman, J E, Perks, R B, Nguyen, H B T, Cunningham, W, Daniel, S A and Mccormick, M S. 2019 Managing Coal Mine Closure: Achieving a Just Transition for All. Washington DC: World Bank Group. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 38 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Steadman, S, Colenbrander, S, Simpson, N, McKechnie, A and Cole, M. 2024. Putting the ‘Just’ in Just Energy Transition Partnerships: What Role for the Multilateral Development Banks? https://odi.cdn.ngo/media/ documents/Putting_the_just_in_Just_Energy_Transition_Partnerships-what_role_for_the_MDBs.pdf. Steinbach, D, Bahadur, A, Shakya , C, Thazin Aung, M, Burton, C, Gallagher, C, Mbewe, S, Greene, S, Regmi, B, Granderson, A, Ramkissoon, C, Kostka, W, Andon, L, Greenstone-Alefaio, T, Dolcemascolo, G, Gupta, S, Tewary, A, Lopez, M, Barnes, J, Mirza, A, Bodrud-Doza, M, Akhter, F, Rozario, S and Reyes, C. 2022. The Good Climate Finance Guide for Investing in Locally Led Adaptation. London: International Institute for Environment and Development. https://www.iied.org/21231iied Strambo, C, Aung, M T and Atteridge, A. 2019. Navigating Coal Mining Closure and Societal Change: Learning from Past Cases of Mining Decline. Stockholm, Sweden: Stockholm Environment Institute. Strangleman, T. 2016. “Deindustrialization and the Historical Sociological Imagination: Making Sense of Work and Industrial Change.” Sociology 51(2). Sustainable Minerals Institute. 2022. Energy transition in China: Scenario Analysis Informing Social Sustainability Assessment. Executive summary prepared for the World Bank. Queensland: University of Queensland. Thomas, K, Hardy, R D, Lazrus, H, Mendez, M, Orlove, B, Rivera-Collazo, I, Roberts, J T, Rockman, M, Warner, B P and Winthrop, R. 2019. “Explaining Differential Vulnerability to Climate Change: A Social Science Review.” WIRES Climate Change 10(2): e565. UN-ESCAP. 2021. Coal Phase Out and Energy Transition Pathways for Asia and the Pacific. United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific. Venture Taranaki. 2019. Energy Transition Action Plan Taranaki 2050. https://www.taranaki.co.nz/assets/ Uploads/Like-No-Other/Energy-TPAP.pdf. Vivoda, V, Kemp, D and Owen, J. 2019. “Regulating the Social Aspects of Mine Closure in Three Australian States.” Journal of Energy and Natural Resources Law 37(4): 405–424. WHO. 2016. Burning Opportunity: Clean Household Energy for Health, Sustainable Development, and Wellbeing of Women and Children. Geneva: World Health Organization. WHO. 2023. Household air pollution and health. WHO factsheet. Geneva: World Health Organization. https:// www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/household-air-pollution-and-health. Whyte, K. 2020. “Too Late for Indigenous Climate Justice: Ecological and Relational Tipping Points.” WIREs Climate Change 11(1). Williams, S and Doyon, A. 2020. “The Energy Futures Lab: A Case Study of Justice in Energy Transitions.” Environmental Innovations and Societal Transitions 37: 29–301. Wong, J, Röser, F and Maxwell, V. 2022. Coal Phase-out and Just Transitions: Lessons Learned from Europe. NewClimate Institute. https://newclimate.org/sites/default/files/2022-11/coal_phase_out_paper_ nov_2022.pdf. Wong, S. 2012. “What Have Been the Impacts of World Bank Community Driven Development Programs? CDD Impact Evaluation Review and Operational and Research Implications.” Social Development Department Report. Washington DC: World Bank World Bank. 2004. World Development Report 2004: Making Services Work for Poor People. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2016. World Bank Environmental and Social Framework. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2023a. How to Implement a Just Transition: Emerging Practices in Policy and Governance. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2023b. Social Dimensions of Climate Change in Indonesia. Washington DC: World Bank. 39 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change REFERENCES World Bank. 2023c. A Just Transition During Coal Phasedown: A World Bank Approach. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2024a. Just Transition Taxonomy: Narrative Report. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2024b. Women’s Employment in Renewable Energy in the East Asia and Pacific Region. Washington DC: International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/World Bank. World Bank. 2024c. Stakeholder Engagement in Just Transition Strategy Approach, Methods, and Tools. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2024d. Citizen Engagement and Just Transition in Serbia. Washington DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2024e. The Care Economy in Indonesia: A Pathway for Women’s Economic Participation and Social Well-being. Washington DC: World Bank. Yang, Y and Shanker T. 2023. The Future of Coal Regions: Challenges and Opportunities. Harvard Kennedy School, Cambridge, MA, USA. Retrieved from https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/wiener/programs/ economy/our-work/future-coal-regions-challenges-and-opportunities Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 40 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Appendixes Appendix A. Status of coal phaseout Europe: Several European countries are part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) and have committed to phase out unabated coal on or before 2030 (Jewell et al. 2019). Because these countries represent a small share of global coal generation capacity and have mostly ageing coal plants, they tend to face fewer changes in phasing out coal. The effectiveness of PPCA in countries with younger coal fleets has thus been questioned (Jewell et al. 2019; Blondeel et al. 2020). Germany recently joined the PPCA and has committed to phase out unabated coal by 2038. As part of its commitment to phase out coal, Germany is implementing a set of measures that include compensation for power plant closures, labor market measures for coal workers, and substantial support of structural change in coal-mining regions. Poland, another coal-heavy country in Europe, has not indicated a coal phaseout target and faces substantial challenges (Whitley et al. 2017; Antosiewicz et al. 2020). European efforts to phase out coal indicate that appropriate financial instruments are needed (Rentier et al. 2019), and a just transition for workers are important to gain broad public support and help those most affected by the phaseout (Johnstone and Hielscher 2017; Osička et al. 2020). North America: Coal use has been declining in North America. In the United States, the primary driver has been the availability of cheap shale gas and ageing coal fleets. Coal use in the United States has dropped by over 50 percent since 2008 (EIA 2019). The recently announced Nationally Determined Contribution by the Biden Administration sets a 100 percent carbon-free electricity goal by 2035 (The White House 2021), indicating a phaseout not only of unabated coal electricity generation, but also of natural gas generation. As one of the two founding countries of the PPCA, Canada has committed to phasing out unabated coal power by 2030 (Government of Canada 2018). Declining coal use in both the United States and Canada has decreased greenhouse gas emissions, local air pollutants, and cooling water use (Harris et al. 2015; Kondash et al. 2019). However, there have been concerns about social and economic consequences, particularly at the local level. For instance, the United States has lost about 50,000 coal mining jobs between 2011 and 2021 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics 2021), with significant regional and economic inequities (Bodenhamer 2016; Abraham 2017; Greenberg 2018). Comprehensive social programs, such as retirement compensation, training for reemployment, and business support for economic diversification, have been suggested as means to support a just transition (Homagain et al. 2015; Patrizio et al. 2018; Grubert 2020). Asia: After a period of rapid growth, coal expansion has slowed in Asia, but it is still the primary driver of the global increase in coal demand (IEA 2020e). China’s coal consumption reached a plateau under policy efforts during the 13th Five-Year Plan (2016-2020), and new coal plants are being built at a slower rate than previously. Both China and India have suspended and cancelled many new coal power projects and retired a small set of old, dirty, inefficient coal plants (CEA 2019; Global Energy Monitor et al. 2021). These efforts are largely due to non-climate reasons, such air pollution and health (Singh and Rao 2015; Gass et al. 2016; Peng et al. 2018; Malik et al. 2020), overcapacity (Blondeel and Van de Graaf 2018), and rural electrification and renewable investments (Aklin et al. 2017; Thapar et al. 2018). However, as new builds offset retirements, coal generation capacity has continued to grow in both countries since 2015 (Global Energy Monitor et al. 2021). Other fast-growing Southeast Asian countries, such as Indonesia, Viet Nam, and the Philippines have experienced strong growth in coal use (IEA 2020b), but an increasing number of new coal power projects are being cancelled (Littlecott et al. 2021). Coal projects in these countries are decreasingly likely to proceed because they rely on 41 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change APPENDIX A. STATUS OF COAL PHASEOUT international financing, and China, Japan, the United States, and other G7 countries have pledged to end overseas coal financing (Schiermeier 2021). Africa: New coal power projects in Africa have been declining since 2016, with only South Africa and Zimbabwe currently building new coal plants and several others with planned projects (Littlecott et al. 2021). However, these projects also largely depend on international financing and are thus less likely to be implemented (see above). In South Africa, employment in the coal mining sector has dropped by almost half since the 1980s and has been estimated to fall from 77,000 today to 22,000 to 42,000 by 2050 (Cock 2019; Strambo, Aung and Atteridge 2019). Policy and financial support are essential to ensure a sustainable transition for these workers (Swilling et al. 2016). Source: Denton et al. (2022), p 626. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 42 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Appendix B. Research design and methods The team used several databases and approaches to search for appropriate and relevant publications. Databases included Web of Science, Scopus, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. An example of a search string used in the review is: (just transition OR sustainability transitions OR energy transition OR coal transition OR coal mining) AND (all of society OR justice OR equitable OR fair OR political economy) AND (impacts OR social impacts OR marginalized groups OR vulnerable groups OR gender OR intersectionality) AND (resilience OR inclusion OR cohesion OR empowerment) AND (stakeholder engagement OR community engagement OR participation) AND (legitimacy OR institutional arrangements OR governance) AND (barriers OR limits OR enablers OR inequality OR vulnerability). To avoid excluding key literature, the team also sought insights, suggestions, and recommendations from key stakeholder interviewees. This was supported by a review of the World Bank’s programming and policy documents. Each focus group and interview adhered to a similar overarching structure, centering on key categories of questions, including: 1 Critical factors that facilitate effective stakeholder engagement in supporting a just transition away from coal. 2 Key institutional arrangements needed from the initial stages of transition preparation to the post- transition community development phase to ensure a just transition away from coal. 3 Gaps in evidence requiring attention to better support a just transition away from coal. 43 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change APPENDIX C. SEVEN PRINCIPLES TO REALIZE A JUST TRANSITION OT A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY Appendix C. Seven principles to realize a just transition to a low-carbon economy Just transition Implementing and reinforcing this principle principle Actively encourage Work actively toward decarbonizing economies as fast as possible. Invest in a clean decarbonization energy transition, and in greenhouse gas reductions, particularly in hard-to-abate sectors (e.g., cement production, chemical production, steel manufacture, heavy transport, waste) that have few realistic, low-carbon substitutions available. Create space and support for just transition planning. Engage governments to reshape the norms around decarbonization and transition, particularly where transition debates are absent. Highlight practical steps that different stakeholders in regions facing future transition can take in anticipating change. This can help to lower resistance to decarbonization, and ensure time is used for preparation rather than avoidance. Avoid the creation Avoid new investments linked to high-carbon assets or activities. That is, do not create of carbon lock-in further carbon entanglement, or set the stage for stranded assets. and more “losers” in these sectors Support programs should not enhance the dependency of workers – or of local, regional, and national economies and political regimes – on fossil fuel-based economic activities. For example, programs targeting SMEs that depend on carbon-intensive industries should support diversification. Avoid reviving or prolonging the decline of carbon-intensive industries. Promote fiscal reforms, particularly fossil fuel subsidy reform. Policies that promote or maintain carbon lock-in should end. This frees up more government revenue to support transition planning, and to roll out policies, investments and financial support measures for affected communities. Support affected Actively support regions that today depend on high-carbon industry with finance regions (including investment), technical assistance and policy engagement that promotes diversification of the economy and re-skilling of workers. Support the private sector, ensuring tailored support to promote new and expanded SMEs. Tailor SME-targeted assistance toward opportunities that generate significant, sustainable new employment opportunities. Support diversification of SMEs dependent on carbon-intensive industries. Help carbon-intensive companies to diversify core activities where plausible. The private sector should bear those costs that can and should reasonably be anticipated as part of its business. Such costs include those mandated by new environmental regulations, and the effects of carbon pricing pressures (whether imposed domestically or through international supply chains). However, costs associated with voluntary changes to reduce carbon intensity might be appropriate for concessional financial support. Locally contextualized solutions: Ensure that decisions about major, new industrial investment consider local assets and capacities, along the lines of the European Commission’s “smart specialization” agenda. Use a bottom-up process that involves diverse stakeholders sharing knowledge with one another (i.e., the “entrepreneurial discovery process”) (European Commission 2018; Hausmann and Rodrik 2002). Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 44 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Just transition Implementing and reinforcing this principle principle Education and research: Work with education institutions and the private sector to identify and address skills gaps that constrain private-sector growth and investment. Infrastructure: Finance universal infrastructure (such as transport, communication and education) that aids a wide range of beneficiaries. Focus on increasing connectivity between carbon-intensive regions and surrounding regions – particularly linking urban and rural areas. Seek opportunities to repurpose existing industrial infrastructure, where this might be an asset or magnet for new and small businesses with similar technical needs. Urban regeneration: Support activities that promote urban regeneration of town centers, rather than the creation of new business parks around the fringes of towns. Supporting urban renewal and preventing decay can play an important role in maintaining or encouraging positive sentiment among the private sector, which can create a positive investment feedback loop. Technical and policy support: Develop guidance and policy frameworks that facilitate economic regeneration and diversification, spur job creation, and improve access to public services, particularly for vulnerable groups. Use fiscal and economic development policies to provide such support. Explore options for raising capital for regional investment in green industries and green infrastructure (e.g., issuing green bonds). Reform fiscal policy to ensure the maintenance of public income and resources and guarantee the provision of key services in affected areas. Other efforts to strengthen institutional capacity in the public sector can also help, including addressing environmental legacies, and strengthening the rule of law and democracy. Support workers, Provide re-skilling to workers affected by low carbon transitions and ensure that these their families programs are also available for workers’ families and the wider community. Also, create and the wider opportunities for other forms of personal support, such as job-seeking, mental health community affected counseling, and financial planning. by closures and downscaling Scale up social safety nets, particularly in regions where rapid or large-scale decarbonization is on the horizon, and where existing social protections are weak. Ensure that Strengthen regulatory requirements and financial guarantees for mines and major environmental industries in relation to site closure and environmental remediation responsibilities. damage is remediated, and Ensure individual mines have closure plans in place, and that financial resources for that environmental cleanup are secured by government. Further, introduce requirements that mines costs are not upgrade these plans to reflect new closure scenarios, such as externally driven closure transferred to the scenarios that occur before planned end-of-mine-life. public sector Address existing Target support measures (such as SME initiatives, infrastructure investments, and policy economic and reforms) to avoid higher cost burdens on the poor or other marginalized groups. social inequalities Measures should actively aim to reverse trends of inequality. This means identifying and understanding pre-existing social inequalities (such as those based on gender, age, ethnicity or ability), and understanding the distributional impacts of transition and of 45 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change APPENDIX C. SEVEN PRINCIPLES TO REALIZE A JUST TRANSITION OT A LOW-CARBON ECONOMY Just transition Implementing and reinforcing this principle principle different support measures. Transition support measures should target not only direct workers from carbon intensive industries but also their families, contractors, and other vulnerable groups. Gender equality – and measures targeted at addressing gendered inequality – should be integrated into any package of transition support, including when designing support measures; evaluating employment and other economic opportunities; assessing livelihood impacts or environmental costs; and prioritizing outcomes from transition support. Indicators used to assess the progress of just transitions should go beyond net job creation, diversity of manufacturing, and regional economic growth. Other indicators could relate to, for instance the kinds of jobs created, who has access to them, and levels of broader community resilience and innovation. Fossil fuel subsidy reform, strengthening of social safety nets, and programs such as energy efficiency measures that result in cost savings for low-income households can contribute to tackling inequality and vulnerability. Prioritize investment support for types of public infrastructure, and the design of public infrastructure. Ensure an inclusive Create opportunities for wide local engagement with transition planning, so that many and transparent different stakeholders and social groups are active participants in defining regional planning process visions and opportunities, and in identifying challenges and risks that need to be managed. Locally driven and coordinated transitions have tended to fare better than those coordinated by national governments. Source: Atteridge and Strambo (2020), pp. 10-11. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 46 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Appendix D. World Bank 3x3 framework for a just transition Figure D1. The World Bank 3x3 framework Institutional Governance People & Communities Repurposing Land & Assets Strengthen laws, policies and Assess labor profiles, user- Identify and assess land regulations relevant to coal needs and current social and assets to be closed Initiate industry transition protection programs and decommissioned dialogue Build vision and strategies Develope a pre-layoff plan, Prepare for reclamation for coal industry transition including income support, and repurposing through an inclusive active labor market policies and Phase 1 stakeholder engagement institutional capacity building Assess environmental Pre-colsure remediation costs planning Appraisal of social sustainability outcomes Community engagement in repurposing process 18 months Develop institutional structures Proivide social assistance to Develop and apply health, safety for implementing closure workers and communities and environment (HSE) and and repurposing technical standards for closure Phase 2 Active labor market policies and decommissioning Coal mine Coordinate closure and for workforce transition, closure decommissioning activities including re-skilling, Apply careful monitoring between government agencies education and incentives mechanism for environmental 3+ years and firms legacy issues Coordinate transition Provide longer term re-skilling Environmental remediation of Phase 3 implementation through and education to help preparing land/assets Coal region institutional arragements workers for future jobs transition Re-permitting and repurposing Manage funding sources and Locally-led participatory land/assets to sustain regional budgetary support planning and development transformation 10+ years investments for regional economic development Mobilize private investment through public-private partnership Source: Stanley et al. (2019). 47 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change APPENDIX E. OVERVIEW OF THE SOCIAL ASPECTS OF MINE CLOSURE Appendix E. Overview of the social aspects of mine closure Social aspect Indicative elements Economy • Local economic activity (diversity and dependencies) • Household income • Local living standards Business • Local businesses development opportunities in mining • Business opportunities in other sectors Employment • Local employment opportunities in mining • Local employment other sectors • Local employment stability/volatility Security • Social order and safety (e.g., tensions, crime, violence) Education • Local skills development in mining and other sectors and training • Access to quality education and training Infrastructure • Local transport (e.g., public buses, roads, airports) • Critical infrastructure (food supply, power supply, water supply, telecommunications) Amenity • Local aesthetic and recreational resources (e.g., heritage sites, parks and recreation areas, communal areas) • Local culture, arts and sports (including facilities) Livelihoods • Local livelihoods (e.g., access to land, food, water and shelter that affects livelihoods) Land • Local land ownership, access and use • Recognition of traditional/customary ownership Housing • Local housing quality, availability and affordability Health • Community health and wellbeing • Access to quality health and social services Environment • Environmental aspects that affect social conditions (e.g., quality of air, water, land, ecosystem) Demography • Local population dynamics (e.g. growth/decline, migration, ageing, gender balance) Participation • Stakeholder participation in closure planning, and closure and post-closure processes (including decision-making) Inclusion • Inclusive stakeholder engagement, including with vulnerable and otherwise marginalized groups (e.g., Indigenous Peoples, women, ethnic minorities, persons with disabilities, elderly, youth) in closure planning, and closure and post-closure processes (including decision-making) Social (general) • General socio-economic considerations • Social considerations in financial assurance mechanisms Source: Vivoda et al. (2019), pp. 9-10. Note: Sesele et al. (2021) observed that there is a lack of integration of gender issues across the above themes. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 48 SOCIAL FOUNDATIONS OF A JUST COAL TRANSITION Appendix F. Degree of citizen participation and power in decision-making Arnstein’s (1969) ladder of participation (figure F.1) is a conceptual framework used to analyze the degree of citizen participation in decision-making. Each of its eight rungs represents a different level of participation, ranging from nonparticipation to full citizen control. Figure F.1. Arnstein’s ladder of participation Citizen control 8 Delegated power Degrees of citizen power 7 Partnership 6 Placation 5 Consultation Degrees of tokenism 4 Informing 3 Therapy 2 Nonparticipation Manipulation 1 Source: Arnstein 1969, p217. Citizen control: The highest rung of the ladder represents full citizen control, where decision-making authority resides entirely with citizens or their elected representatives. Citizens have the power to define issues, make decisions, and implement policies without interference from external authorities. Delegated power: Decision-making authority is formally delegated to citizens or their representatives. Citizens have the power to make decisions within a defined scope, but ultimate authority rests with higher-level decision- makers or institutions. This can include participatory budgeting processes or community-run programs where citizens have direct control over resources and decision-making. Partnership: A more collaborative approach to decision-making, where citizens and authorities work together to identify issues, develop solutions, and make joint decisions. This level of participation involves genuine dialogue and negotiation, with decisions reached through consensus or mutual agreement. Placation: Decision-makers create the illusion of citizen participation by allowing citizens to articulate their concerns or preferences, but only within predefined boundaries that do not challenge the existing power structure. Decision-makers may make minor concessions to appease citizens without fundamentally altering the decision. Consultation: Decision-makers seek citizens’ opinions or feedback on specific issues or decisions—often through surveys, focus groups, or public meetings—but the degree to which citizens’ input influences the final decision varies. Although they may consider citizen feedback, the decision-makers retain control over decision-making. 49 | Social Dimensions of Climate Change APPENDIX E. OVERVIEW OF THE SOCIAL ASPECTS OF MINE CLOSURE Informing: Authorities or decision-makers provide information to citizens about decisions that have already been made or are in the process of being made, through newsletters, websites, public announcements or other communication channels. Citizens are not given the opportunity to provide input or influence decision-making. Therapy: Citizens are given the illusion of participation, but this is tokenistic, with their role limited to venting frustrations or airing grievances. It includes forums such as public hearings, where citizens are allowed to express their concerns, but their input may not be seriously considered. Manipulation: This is the lowest rung, where citizens have no real power or control over decision-making. Authorities or powerholders may use propaganda, misinformation, and other tactics to shape opinions without genuine citizen participation. Social Dimensions of Climate Change | 50