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Attribution—Please cite the work as follows: “Liberia Economic Update. © World Bank.” All queries on rights and licenses, including subsidiary rights, should be addressed to World Bank Publications, The World Bank Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, DC 20433, USA; fax: 202-522-2625; e-mail: pubrights@worldbank.org. Cover photo: Staff at GLS Group, Liberia. TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations and Acronyms............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. i Preface and Acknowledgments...................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... ii Main Messages.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. iii Bibliography......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 20 Annex ......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 21 PART ONE: RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK ........................................................................................................................................................ 1 A. Economic growth moderated in 2024 but remained broad-based and steady in 2024.................................................................................................. 1 B. Inflation moderated in 2024, although upward pressures re-emerged in the final months of the year............................................................ 2 C. Poverty declined modestly in 2024 amid stable growth and lower inflation, but sustained progress will require more job creation and structural reforms.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 D. Monetary expansion slowed in 2024 as credit growth softened, while the financial sector benefited from rising reserves and improved liquidity despite worsening asset quality............................................................................................................................................................................... 4 E. Export growth accelerated in 2024 amid growing demand for gold, rubber, and cocoa, while a sharp decline in imports —especially of fuel and capital goods—helped narrow the trade deficit but may signal weakening investment activity ............ 5 F. Liberia’s fiscal performance improved markedly in 2024, reflecting the government’s strong commitment to enhanced domestic revenue mobilization, disciplined spending, and prudent debt management ......................................................... 7 G. Liberia’s economic outlook is positive, contingent on successful reforms and global economic trends........................................................... 8 PART TWO: ESCAPING THE UNDEREMPLOYMENT TRAP: CHARTING LIBERIA’S PATH TO RESILIENT GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVE JOBS..................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 H. Growth performance and structural transformation......................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 I. Labor market dynamics and productivity trends................................................................................................................................................................................................. 13 J. Labor demand and job-creation potential................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 15 K. Liberia’s pathways to growth and quality job creation.................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 FIGURES Figure 1: Real GDP growth and contributions by sectors (percent, percentage points), 2020-24....................................................................................... 1 Figure 2: Volume of electricity supplied in GWh, 2020-24....................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Figure 3: Contribution to headline inflation from food and non-food components...................................................................................................................... 2 Figure 4: Headline, food and non-food inflation (Y/Y)................................................................................................................................................................................................ 2 Figure 5: Poverty projections (International poverty line)........................................................................................................................................................................................ 3 Figure 6: The CBL has maintained a tight policy stance to rein in inflation.............................................................................................................................................. 4 Figure 7: Current account balance (% of GDP)................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 Figure 8: Merchandise exports (US$ million) ...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 9: Merchandise imports (US$ million)...................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Figure 10: Fiscal indicators (% of GDP).......................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 11: Resource envelope (% of GDP)................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Figure 12: Public expenditures (% of GDP)............................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 Figure 13: Real GDP growth (in percent).................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 11 Figure 14: Shares of value added (constant 2015 USD)................................................................................................................................................................................................. 11 Figure 15: Trends in employment by sector (in thousands)...................................................................................................................................................................................... 12 Figure 16: Value added per worker (Index: 2004=100).................................................................................................................................................................................................. 12 Figure 17: Per-capita GDP growth vs structural peers ................................................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 18: Composition of growth in GDP per capita, 2004-2023....................................................................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 19: About one-quarter of the population will reach working age in the next 10 years.................................................................................................. 13 Figure 20: An expanding working-age population has been the primary driver of labor-force growth ......................................................................... 13 Figure 21: Most jobs created in recent decades have been of low quality… .......................................................................................................................................... 14 Figure 22: … and concentrated in low-productivity services and agriculture ........................................................................................................................................ 14 Figure 23: Liberia’s private sector comprises mostly micro and small firms................................................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 24: Micro and small firms account for more than two-thirds of firm-level employment ............................................................................................. 15 Figure 25: Trade is the largest subsector of the economy by share of firms and of employment.......................................................................................... 15 Figure 26: Most private-sector workers are self-employed........................................................................................................................................................................................ 15 Figure 27: The share of self-employed workers is particularly high in trade............................................................................................................................................... 16 Figure 28: Share of firms by county................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 16 Figure 29: Share of firm-level employment by county ................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16 Figure 30: Newly registered LLCs per 1,000 adults, Liberia and comparators............................................................................................................................................ 17 Figure 31: LLCs per 1,000 adults, Liberia and comparators......................................................................................................................................................................................... 17 BOXES Box 1: Understanding poverty in Liberia: Effects of the revised international poverty line.................................................................................................. 3 Box 2: Catalyzing jobs through Liberia’s wood value chain.............................................................................................................................................................................. 18 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS AE Advanced Economies CBL Central Bank of Liberia COVID-19 Coronavirus Disease of 2019 ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States EMDES Emerging Markets and Developing Economies FDI Foreign Direct Investment GDP Gross Domestic Product GEP World Bank Global Economic Prospects GOL Government of Liberia GST Goods and Services Tax GWh Gigawatt Hour HIES Household Income Expenditure Survey IMF International Monetary Fund LEU Liberia Economic Update LIC Low-Income Countries LD/L$ Liberian Dollar LLCs Limited Liability Companies LISGIS Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services M2 Broad Money MFDP Ministry of Finance and Development Planning NEC National Establishment Census NPL Non-Performing Loans NPLs Non-performing Loans PPP Purchasing Power Parity SEZs Special Economic Zones SSA Sub-Saharan Africa TVET Technical and Vocational Education and Training US United States VAT Value Added Tax WBG World Bank Group Y/Y Year-on-Year PREFACE AND ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The Liberia Economic Update (LEU) is a World Bank report series produced once a year that assesses recent economic and social developments and prospects considering global and medium-term context. The LEU examines and sheds light on emerging and selected policy issues and medium-term development challenges facing Liberia. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Liberia’s evolving economy. This report was prepared by Gweh Gaye Tarwo (Economist and Task Team Leader), Muhammad Waheed (Senior Economist), and Alari Mahdi (Senior Private Sector Specialist). Valuable contributions were also made by Mack Capehart Mulbah (Senior Social Protection Specialist), Rose Mungai (Senior Economist), and Kelvin Doesieh (Consultant). The team is grateful for the collaboration with the Ministry of Finance and Development Planning, the Central Bank of Liberia, and the Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS). The team would like to thank Mamadou Ndione (Senior Economist) and Ruchita Manghnani (Senior Economist) for their review and comments and staff of the International Monetary Fund for continual dialogue and collaboration. The team also acknowledges Joseph Koilor and Irene Sitienei for their administrative and operational support in the preparation of the Report. External and media relations are managed by Michael Sahr. Robert Waiharo worked on the design. The report was prepared under the overall supervision of Robert Taliercio (Division Director, Ghana, Liberia, and Sierra Leone), Georgia Wallen (Country Manager, Liberia), Sandeep Mahajan (Practice Manager for Economic Policy), Mehnaz Safavian (Practice Manager for Finance, Competitiveness and Investment) and Stefano Curto (Lead Economist). The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of the World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of the World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. For questions about this report please email gtarwo@worldbank.org and mwaheed@worldbank.org. For information about the World Bank and its activities in Liberia, please visit: www.worldbank.org/en/country/liberia ii September 2025 | Edition No. 6 MAIN MESSAGES Liberia’s macroeconomic performance strengthened Poverty declined slightly but remains high, requiring in 2024, with notable improvements in fiscal job-rich growth and improved data systems to guide consolidation, inflation management, and external appropriate policymaking. The poverty rate1 dropped rebalancing, although the growth momentum from 34.5 to 33.1 percent, reflecting stable growth and moderated. Real GDP growth decelerated slightly to lower inflation. However, most new jobs remain informal 4.0 percent from 4.7 percent in 2023, while inflation fell and low paying. More accurate and frequent poverty to 8.3 percent, supported by tight monetary policy and data, including from the forthcoming HIES survey, will be easing food prices, although underlying price pressures critical for targeting social policy and assessing the impact remained. The fiscal deficit narrowed from 7.1 percent of reforms. to 2.0 percent of GDP, driven by increased domestic revenues and spending cuts. The public debt declined Credit growth softened in 2024, and the financial modestly, and the current account deficit halved to 11.2 sector stability indicators improved, though rising non- percent of GDP due to robust exports and falling imports. performing loans (NPLs) pose a challenge. Monetary However, structural constraints such as low private expansion slowed, as growth in credit to the private investment, limited job creation, and growing reliance sector decelerated, while net foreign assets rebounded. on non-concessional borrowing continue to pose risks. The banking sector remained liquid and well-capitalized, Medium-term prospects are cautiously optimistic, with with improved profitability, but asset quality deteriorated average GDP growth projected at 4.9 percent between as the ratio of NPLs to gross loans increased from 17.7 2025 and 2027, but reforms are needed to sustain gains. percent at end-2023 to 21.5 percent at end-2024. Private credit remained concentrated on loans to individuals and A slowdown in industrial activity offset the gains in to service sector-related firms, with limited lending to agriculture and services in 2024 compared to 2023. agriculture or manufacturing sub-sectors. Services remained the largest contributor to GDP, supported by gains in trade, communication, and Improved exports and the slowdown in imports financial services. Agriculture rebounded due to rising narrowed the trade deficit, but concerns remain over rubber and rice production, although palm oil output investment and high export concentration. Stronger contracted due to structural bottlenecks. Industrial exports of gold, rubber, and cocoa drove a 17 percent output dropped sharply, with mining and manufacturing increase, while capital and fuel imports fell by 20 percent, growth falling significantly. On the demand side, growth underscoring subdued industrial and investment activity. was led by private consumption and strong gold and The current account deficit narrowed substantially. rubber exports. However, the export base remains narrow and vulnerable to commodity price shocks. Inflation eased in 2024 due to strong policy action, nevertheless rising non-food inflation during the Fiscal consolidation advanced in 2024, amid stronger latter part of the year signals structural weaknesses. domestic revenue mobilization and sharp spending Headline inflation declined to 8.3 percent due to lower cuts. While revenue and grants rose to 22.5 percent of food and fuel prices, tighter monetary policy, and GDP, overall expenditure fell from 27.2 percent to 24.3 stable exchange rates. However, non-food inflation percent of GDP, led by a sharp drop in recurrent spending. rose in the second half of 2024, driven by rising The fiscal deficit narrowed to 2.0 percent of GDP in 2024 costs in housing, healthcare, and education. The shift compared to 7.1 percent in 2023, and debt declined slightly from import-driven to domestically sourced inflation to 57.2 percent of GDP from 57.8 percent in 2023. Sustaining underscores deeper inefficiencies and the need for the consolidation momentum will require reforms to tax services-sector reforms. expenditure and greater capital budget efficiency. 1 The World Bank has recently updated its “dollar-a-day” extreme International Poverty Line (IPL), setting the new threshold at US$3.00 per capita per day in 2021 purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. September 2025 | Edition No. 6 iii Main Messages Liberia’s medium-term prospects remain positive, Unlocking employment potential requires enabling albeit vulnerable to both domestic and external risks. firm growth, expanding production capacity, and GDP growth is projected to average 5.2 percent in addressing spatial and sectoral concentration. As 2025–27, supported by agriculture, services, and FDI-led currently structured, Liberia’s private sector is unable to mining activity. Inflation is expected to fall to 6.8 percent generate quality jobs on a large scale, amid a prevalence by 2027, and the fiscal deficit to average 2.4 percent of of informal, micro-sized firms with limited employment GDP between 2025-2027. However, potential risk factors capacity. Among the more than 40,000 firms covered by include fiscal slippage, commodity-price volatility, weak the 2024 National Establishment Census (NEC), 86 percent reform implementation, and declining aid flows. are micro-sized, 12 percent are small, and only 2 percent are medium-sized or large (Figure 23). Nearly 89 percent Translating stabilization into inclusive growth requires of firms are single-person operations. Informality is confronting Liberia’s employment crisis head- widespread. About 60 percent of firms are not registered on. Macroeconomic stabilization in 2024 created a with the tax authority, and 68 percent are not listed foundation for future progress, but it has yet to translate in the national business registry. Business density and into widespread improvements in job quality or living complexity remain low, while infrastructure gaps and standards. Structural weaknesses in the labor market and weak institutions constrain private-sector dynamism. the private sector continue to constrain growth potential. Tackling these barriers is essential not only for reducing The transformation of Liberia’s employment landscape poverty, but also for sustaining macroeconomic gains hinges on a four-pronged strategy. This includes: (i) through a stronger domestic tax base, greater resilience stimulating labor demand through investment in agro- to external shocks, and enhanced social cohesion. processing and light manufacturing; (ii) enabling the emergence and expansion of productive firms through Liberia’s job challenge stems from the contrast between regulatory, financial, and technological support; (iii) a growing labor force and insufficient structural reforming the business environment through high- transformation. While labor force participation is high, level coordination, legal modernization, and public- wage employment remains stagnant, and vulnerable private partnerships; and (iv) expanding labor market employment, marked by informality and lack of social participation, particularly for youth and women, security benefits, affects 78 percent of the workforce. through skills development, active labor programs, Low educational attainment, especially among women, and entrepreneurship support. This strategy should be and skills mismatches exacerbate underemployment. complemented by long-term investments in education Job creation is concentrated within informal services and human capital, improved market access for local and micro-enterprises with limited scalability. Most firms, and targeted incentives for firms that offer wage firms operate in low-productivity sectors, such as trade employment. Aligning industrial and labor policies with and relatively unsophisticated services, while the rate spatial development priorities and value-chain potential of formal firm creation is extremely low by global and will also be essential to drive inclusive job creation and regional standards. reduce regional disparities in employment opportunities. iv September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Executive Summary PART ONE RECENT ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS AND OUTLOOK L iberia’s macroeconomic performance strengthened in 2024, with notable improvements in fiscal consolidation, inflation management, and external rebalancing, 1. A slowdown in the industrial sector offset gains in services and agriculture. Real GDP growth decelerated to 4.0 percent in 2024, down from 4.7 percent in 2023, although the growth momentum moderated. Real GDP reflecting a mixed performance across sectors. Services growth slowed to 4.0 percent from 4.7 percent in 2023 as and agriculture continued to drive growth, while weak industrial output weakened, despite solid contributions industrial activity, particularly in mining and manufacturing, from services and agriculture. Inflation declined to 8.3 acted as a drag (Figure 1). Mining and panning growth percent amid tight monetary policy, broad exchange rate slowed markedly to 1.8 percent in 2024 from 11.9 percent stability, and easing food and fuel prices, although core in 2023, while manufacturing growth dropped to 7.1 inflation rose sharply in the second half, signaling persistent percent from 32.4 percent a year earlier. On the supply side, underlying pressures. The poverty is high at 26.4 percent. services remained the largest contributor, contributing 2.0 The fiscal deficit narrowed significantly, from 7.1 percent to percentage points to GDP growth, followed by agriculture 2.0 percent of GDP, driven by higher domestic revenues and (1.3 percentage points) and industry (0.7 percentage deep spending cuts, while public debt declined modestly. points). On the demand side, growth was primarily The current account deficit halved to 11.2 percent of GDP, supported by robust private consumption and strong supported by record gold and rubber exports and falling exports of gold and rubber. In contrast, significant fiscal imports. Structural challenges remain, including limited consolidation weighed on real public sector consumption, job creation coupled with prevalent informality in the acting as a drag on overall demand. labor market, a weak business environment, a low level of investment, and increased debt service pressures due to 2. The services sector continued its steady recovery rising reliance on non-concessional borrowing. Medium- in 2024, reinforcing its role as the key driver of growth. term (2025-27) prospects are cautiously positive, with GDP Picking up pace after subdued performance in 2022, growth projected to average 5.2 percent, but sustaining services output expanded by 4.7 percent in 2024, up stability will require steadfast implementation of fiscal slightly from 4.5 percent in 2023, driven especially by gains and structural reforms amid elevated external and in trade, communication, and financial services. Improved domestic risks. electricity supply—up 5.5 percent year-on-year—and a sharp deceleration in transport price growth (from 19.4 A. Economic growth moderated in percent in 2023 to 3.6 percent in 2024) contributed to 2024 but remained broad-based and lower operating costs for service providers, supporting steady in 2024 continued output gains (Figure 2). FIGURE 1: Real GDP growth and contributions by sectors FIGURE 2: Volume of electricity supplied in GWh, 2020-24 (percent, percentage points), 2020-24 Agriculture Industry Services Real GDP growth Average 2020-2022 2023 2024 6.0 60 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.0 50 2.0 40 0.0 30 -2.0 20 -3.0 -4.0 10 -6.0 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations September 2025 | Edition No. 6 1 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 3. Agricultural performance strengthened, led by reflecting increased construction activity and an uptick rubber and rice, but structural constraints persisted. in the hospitality industry. However, overall output Agricultural output grew by 3.4 percent in 2024, growth in manufacturing slowed to 7.1 percent in 2024, accelerating from 1.4 percent in 2023, and contributed compared to 32.4 percent in 2023. 1.3 percentage points to GDP growth. This improvement was driven by higher crop production, supported by B. Inflation moderated in 2024, although favorable weather, improved connectivity, and rising upward pressures re-emerged in the global prices. Rubber production surged by 17.9 percent, final months of the year rebounding from a 2.0 percent decline in 2023 amid 5. Inflation eased in 2024 due to strong policy a 26 percent increase in international rubber prices. actions. The inflation rate fell to an average of 8.3 percent Similarly, domestic rice production rose by 8.5 percent, in 2024 from 10.1 percent in 2023, amid targeted policy helped by favorable growing conditions and strong price measures, a tight monetary stance, relatively stable incentives. However, palm oil output declined by 24.6 exchange rates,2 and easing food and fuel prices. The percent, underscoring ongoing structural bottlenecks previous inflationary surge that peaked at 12.7 percent in the sector, including inefficient farming practices, (y/y) in August 2023, was short-lived as the Central Bank limited investment, and fragmented value chains. of Liberia (CBL) maintained its policy rate well above Notably, improvements in road infrastructure in 2024 inflation rate—holding it at 20 percent for most of the began easing longstanding challenges in market access year before easing it to 17 percent in the final quarter. for farmers. While headline inflation rate declined, reaching a low of 6.2 percent in June 2024, the composition of inflation 4. Industrial output still expanded in 2024, albeit shifted markedly during the year (Figure 3). less than in the previous year, with moderate gains in mining and a pickup in construction activities. Output 6. Rising non-food and core inflation in the second in the industrial sector grew by 3.8 percent in 2024, half of the year signaled mounting price pressures. slower than the 13.9 percent growth in 2023. Industrial Food inflation, which peaked at 28.4 percent in February output growth fell below its three-year average of 11.3 2024, declined sharply through mid-year, turned negative percent but contributed 0.7 percentage points to the in August, and averaged 12.8 percent for the year annual growth rate. In mining, iron ore production grew (Figure 4). This decline helped lower overall inflation but by 3.0 percent in 2024, up from just 1.0 percent growth was accompanied by considerable volatility. In contrast, in 2023, while growth in gold production slowed to 0.8 non-food inflation, albeit down on average to 6.7 percent percent, down from 16.4 percent the previous year. In in 2024 from 9.4 percent in 2023, accelerated markedly in manufacturing, the production of cement and beverages the second half of the year. It averaged 9.9 percent in H2- rose by 6.1 percent and 58.5 percent respectively, 2024, up from just 3.6 percent in H1-2024, driven primarily FIGURE 3: Contribution to headline inflation from food and FIGURE 4: Headline, food and non-food inflation (Y/Y) non-food components Food Nonfood Headline Food Nonfood Headline 16 35 14 30 12 25 10 20 8 15 6 10 4 5 2 0 0 -5 -2 -4 -10 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-24 Jul-25 Jan-21 Jan-22 Jan-23 Jan-24 Jan-25 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 Sep-22 Mar-23 Sep-23 Mar-24 Sep-24 Mar-25 Nov-21 Nov-22 Nov-23 Nov-24 May-21 May-22 May-23 May-24 May-25 Jan-21 Apr-21 Jul-21 Oct-21 Jan-22 Apr-22 Jul-22 Oct-22 Jan-23 Apr-23 Jul-23 Oct-23 Jan-24 Apr-24 Jul-24 Oct-24 Jan-25 Apr-25 Jul-25 Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations 2 The Liberian dollar depreciated by 8.5 percent in 2024, compared to 12.6 percent the previous year. 2 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook by rising costs in health, education, and housing, while driven services, over that of volatile, import-sensitive transport prices declined. Core inflation, which excludes items, suggest an increasing influence of local supply volatile food and fuel prices, averaged 7.2 percent for bottlenecks and policy rigidities on price dynamics. It also the year, slightly below the 8.2 percent recorded in 2023. underscores the need to complement short-term price However, this average masked a concerning trend: since stabilization efforts with structural reforms, especially in July 2024, core inflation has risen steadily, averaging 11.3 service delivery and regulatory frameworks. percent in the second half compared with 3.2 percent in the first. It reached 16.1 percent in March 2025, signaling C. Poverty declined modestly in 2024 amid intensifying price pressures in 2025 before slowing to 10 stable growth and lower inflation, but percent by July 2025. sustained progress will require more job creation and structural reforms 7. In late 2024, Liberia’s inflation drivers shifted 8. Steady economic growth and easing inflation from external factors such as fuel and transport cost have helped advance poverty reduction. In 2024, to domestic costs in housing, utilities, and healthcare, progress on poverty reduction was commensurate highlighting deep structural vulnerabilities. A close with the pace of GDP growth and improvements in examination of non-food inflation highlights this purchasing power due to low inflation. The proportion evolving price pattern. In 2023, non-food inflation was of the population living in extreme poverty (i.e., on less primarily fueled by spikes in transport and communication than US$2.15 per person per day in 2017 PPP) declined costs, which subsided in early 2024. However, during the from 27.5 percent in 2023 to 26.4 percent in 2024, but it second half of the year, inflationary pressures resurfaced remains high.3 Notably, Liberia’s growth in the last three in housing, utilities, and healthcare—sectors especially years has been mostly associated with joblessness or affected by structural inefficiencies and administered underemployment, with 9 out of 10 new jobs created in pricing. The surging impact of the cost of domestically this period stemming from informal enterprises or from Box 1 Understanding poverty in Liberia: Effects of the revised international poverty line Accurate and comparable poverty measurement is critical for effective policymaking, requiring timely, high- quality household survey data and consistent international benchmarks. The World Bank has recently updated its “dollar-a-day” extreme International Poverty Line (IPL), setting the new threshold at US$3.00 per capita per day in 2021 purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. This update reflects methodological improvements and a more accurate threshold for poverty measurement, particularly in regions such as West Africa. The World Bank uses national poverty rates for country dialogue and international rates to track SDG progress and benchmark countries. Liberia’s latest official poverty estimates date back FIGURE 5: Poverty projections (International poverty line) to 2016, and do not account for the impact of US$2.15 (2017 PPP) US$3.00 (2021 PPP) more recent shocks such as the Ebola crisis and the 60 COVID-19 pandemic. In 2016, 33.6 percent of the Poverty headcount at International 50 population lived below the IPL, based on the Liberia Household Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES). The 40 Povertyline (%) revised IPL aligns more closely with national extreme 30 poverty lines—equivalent to US$3.92 (2021 PPP) per 20 capita per day—and provides a more accurate picture of extreme poverty. These revised rates reflect a higher 10 threshold for being considered “non-poor”, rather than 0 a deterioration in living standards (Figure 5). Applying 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025p 2026p 2027p the 2021 PPPs to older surveys, such as the 2016 HIES, introduces some uncertainty, as CPI-based adjustments Source: World Development Indicators (WDI), Macro-Poverty Outlook (MPO) and Liberia across several years may not fully capture significant Household Integrated Expenditure Survey (HIES) 2016 Note: The estimates beyond 2024 are based on a passthrough rate of 0.97 for GDP and economic changes and shocks. 0.85 for inflation. 3 This estimate is based on a new methodology that accounts for the impacts of both economic growth and inflation. September 2025 | Edition No. 6 3 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook Box 1 Understanding poverty in Liberia: Effects of the revised international poverty line (cont) In 2024, about 1 in 3 Liberians were poor, with poverty reduction predicted to continue over the next years. Given outdated survey data for official poverty estimates, the World Bank uses a microsimulation approach to project poverty since then. The model reflects sectoral growth rates as well as the loss of purchasing power due to inflation. As inflation eased and economic growth stabilized since 2022, many poor Liberians managed to start escaping poverty. However, still one third of Liberians were poor in 2024, underscoring the need for targeted, context-specific policy responses with a focus on poverty reduction. The forthcoming HIES, led by Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services (LISGIS), presents a critical opportunity to update poverty data and strengthen monitoring efforts. It will offer deeper insights into post-COVID socio-economic conditions and serve as a baseline for tracking progress under the government’s ARREST Agenda for Inclusive Development (AAID) 2025–2029. Once the new data is available, the microsimulation model will be updated to forecast poverty further into the future. self-employment in low productivity sectors (i.e., services of 19.0 percent a year earlier. In contrast with 2023, when and agriculture). Reducing poverty in the medium term M2 growth was driven almost entirely by domestic assets, would require reforms to accelerate growth, alongside 2024 witnessed a healthier balance between domestic prudent fiscal and monetary policies and efforts to create and external sources. Net Foreign Assets (NFA), which more and better jobs. had declined by 25.7 percent in 2023, soared by 112.1 percent in 2024, up to US$ 168.0 million. Meanwhile, D. Monetary expansion slowed in 2024 as credit Net Domestic Assets (NDA) grew at a slower pace of 6.6 growth softened, while the financial sector percent, amid mixed performance from domestic credit benefited from rising reserves and improved components. Credit to the private sector continued liquidity despite worsening asset quality to expand in 2024, rising by 8.6 percent to US$869.3 9. Money supply growth decelerated in 2024 as million, albeit at a slower pace than the 34.9 percent weaker domestic credit offset a rebound in net foreign growth recorded in 2023. In contrast, net credit to the assets within the banking system. Inflation concerns government contracted by 2.9 percent in 2024, following have prompted the CBL to maintain a tight monetary a 21.9 percent increase in the previous year, reflecting stance, keeping the policy rate well above the inflation improved fiscal consolidation efforts. Importantly, the rate (Figure 6). Liberia’s broad money supply (M2) grew composition of net assets improved in favor of external by 13.7 percent in 2024, reaching US$ 1.34 billion by end- assets, with the NFA-to-M2 ratio rising from 7 percent at December compared to US$1.18 billion and growth rate end-2023 to 13 percent at end-2024, signaling stronger reserve accumulation and an improved external liquidity FIGURE 6: The CBL has maintained a tight policy stance to position. Nonetheless, continued liquidity growth rein in inflation warrants cautious monetary management to mitigate MPR In ation potential inflationary pressures. 30 25 10. Credit to the private sector grew modestly in 20 2024, driven primarily by loans to individuals and to 15 businesses in the services sector. By end-December 2024, total credit to the private sector had grown by 10 12.4 percent compared with the previous year. The 5 expansion was primarily supported by personal loans, 0 which contributed 13.4 percent points to overall credit Sept-22 Dec-23 May-24 Aug-25 Nov-21 Apr-22 Mar-25 Jan-21 Oct-24 Jun-21 Feb-23 Jul-23 growth, reflecting rising household demand and increased access to banking services. The services sector Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations contributed another 3.3 percentage points to credit 4 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook growth, driven by credit expansions in health, education, GDP) in 2023 (Figure 7). This improvement was driven and other professional activities. However, these gains by a sharp contraction in the trade deficit, which fell were partially offset by contractions in key investment- from US$833 million (19.0percent of GDP) to US$249 oriented sectors: construction and extractive industries million (5.2 percent of GDP), as exports rose, and imports together subtracted about 6.3 percentage points from declined. Export receipts increased from US$1.11 billion overall credit growth. Credit to trade also declined slightly, to US$1.30 billion, primarily due to a surge in gold exports, reducing overall credit growth by 2.8 percentage points, which jumped from US$681 million to US$896 million. likely due to subdued commercial activity. Meanwhile, Iron ore exports, however, continued to decline, falling credit to agriculture and manufacturing had negligible from US$243 million to US$191 million. Imports dropped effects on credit growth, underscoring persistent significantly, from US$1.95 billion to US$1.6 billion, challenges in financing productive sectors. Overall, the indicating a possible slowdown in import-intensive expansion of credit to the private sector in 2024 remained activity. Despite the improved trade balance, large non- consumption-led, with limited participation from growth- merchandise outflows persisted: net services amounted critical sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, and to US$458 million (down from US$494 million) and net construction. income outflows remained elevated at US$299 million (slightly above US$273 million in 2023). The burden of 11. The banking sector stabilized further in 2024 debt service also increased, with public interest payments amid improved capitalization and resilient liquidity, rising to US$49 million in 2024—up from US$43 million in although asset quality weakened. The banking sector’s 2023 and just US$31 million in 2021. resilience improved, with the regulatory capital-to-risk- FIGURE 7: Current account balance (% of GDP) weighted assets ratio rising to 30.96 percent by December Trade balance Services (net) Income (net) Transfers (net) CAB 2024, up from 29.40 percent at end-2023. However, asset 20.0 quality deteriorated, as the ratio of non-performing loans (NPLs) to gross loans increased from 17.68 percent 10.0 at end-2023 to 21.54 percent at end-2024, reflecting 0.0 challenges in loan performance amid tightening financial conditions. Profitability remained strong, with return on -10.0 -11.2 assets (ROA) improving from 2.35 percent in 2023 to 3.86 -17.7 -19.0 -20.0 percent in 2024, suggesting efficient earnings generation -26.4 despite asset quality pressures. Liquidity buffers also -30.0 strengthened, with the liquid assets-to-total assets -40.0 ratio improving from 30.74 percent to 37.78 percent, 2021 2022 2023 2024 and the liquid assets-to-short-term liabilities ratio rising Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank calculations from 47.45 percent to 59.07 percent over the same period. Overall, Liberia’s banking sector made progress 13. External financing remains critical amid persistent on capitalization and profitability in 2024, although the vulnerability. The 2024 current account deficit was uptick in NPLs highlights the need for continued focus on financed primarily through net inflows of US$551 million credit risk management. in capital and financial accounts. The capital account, largely reflecting project grants, contributed US$224 E. Export growth accelerated in 2024 amid million. Financial account inflows reached US$328 growing demand for gold, rubber, and cocoa, million, driven by strong foreign direct investment (FDI) while a sharp decline in imports—especially of US$470 million, mainly in mining and natural resources. of fuel and capital goods—helped narrow However, this was partly offset by net outflows in other the trade deficit but may signal weakening investments (–US$142 million), as official borrowing of investment activity US$198 million was outweighed by net repayments of 12. Liberia’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed US$340 million in private debt. The growing reliance on substantially in 2024 to US$537.4 million (11.2 percent private and commercial financing underscores rising of GDP), down from US$1.16 billion (26.4 percent of exposure to refinancing and interest rate risks. September 2025 | Edition No. 6 5 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook FIGURE 8: Merchandise exports (US$ million) FIGURE 9: Merchandise imports (US$ million) Rubber Cocoa Crude palm oil Food and live animals Machinery Iron ore Gold Diamond Petroleum Manufactured goods Round logs Others Total exports (RHS) Chemicals Minerals (excl. petroleum) 1,500 Others Total imports 2,500 1,300 1,304 1,100 1,112 2,000 2,076 1,027 900 1,720 1,667 878 1,500 1,480 700 500 1,000 300 500 100 0 -100 2021 2022 2023 2024 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank calculations Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank calculations Note: Import numbers are on CIF basis 14. Rising non-concessional borrowing raises Together, gold, iron ore, and rubber accounted for 94.0 sustainability concerns. While FDI has provided a stable percent of total export earnings, underscoring Liberia’s source of external financing, the increasing reliance on continued dependence on a narrow set of primary costlier, less concessional borrowing is generating fiscal exports. The persistent concentration raises concerns pressures. The steep rise in public interest payments from about the economy’s vulnerability to commodity price US$31 million in 2021 to US$49 million in 2024 reflects fluctuations and external shocks. this shift. With other net investment turning negative and a high share of FDI concentrated in extractive 16. Import demand declined sharply in 2024, sectors, Liberia remains vulnerable to external shocks, reflecting subdued investment and a fall in fuel costs. including commodity price swings and global financial Liberia’s merchandise imports contracted by nearly 20 tightening. To mitigate these risks and enhance percent in 2024, from US$2.08 billion to US$1.67 billion debt sustainability, policy priorities should include (Figure 9). The decline was led by capital and intermediate expanding concessional financing, diversifying exports, goods, especially machinery imports, which fell from promoting value addition, and improving the business US$452.5 million to US$373.3 million, suggesting either a climate to attract long-term investment. slowdown in investment or tightening foreign-exchange availability. Anecdotal evidence suggests that delays 15. Exports rose in 2024, but with little diversification in implementing key investment plans by a leading beyond gold iron ore, and rubber. Liberia’s merchandise mining company may have contributed to the decline exports grew by 17.2 percent in 2024, rising from in machinery imports during the year. Fuel imports also US$1.11 billion in 2023 to US$1.30 billion (Figure 8). This dropped significantly, down by over US$100 million robust performance was driven primarily by a surge in to US$388.8 million, reflecting both lower global oil gold exports, the dominant export commodity—which prices and potentially reduced domestic consumption. increased from US$681.5 million to US$895.6 million. However, food imports remained broadly stable at around Rubber exports also rebounded strongly, climbing US$424 million, suggesting resilience in household from US$104.6 million to US$139.8 million (a 33.6 demand or food aid inflows. While the decline in imports percent increase). Notably, cocoa exports more than contributed to narrowing the trade deficit, it may also doubled from US$4.5 million to US$8.9 million. While reflect front-loaded import activity in late 2023 ahead iron ore exports declined from US$243.0 million to of the elections, as well as broader economic softening, US$190.9 million (a 21.5 percent dip), its share of total particularly if driven by constrained investment and exports remained significant at around 15.0 percent. weakening consumption. 6 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook F. Liberia’s fiscal performance improved FIGURE 10: Fiscal indicators (% of GDP) markedly in 2024, reflecting the Capital spending Current spending government’s strong commitment to Grants Domestic revenue enhanced domestic revenue mobilization, 35 Overall balance (incl. grants) Primary balance (incl. grants) disciplined spending, and prudent debt 25 management 15 17. Targeted policy measures, along with support 5 from the IMF, led to significant gains on the fiscal side -5 in 2024. Total revenue and grants reached US$1075 -15 million (or 22.5 percent of GDP), an increase from -25 US$882 million (approximately 20.1 percent of GDP) in -35 2023. Domestic revenue (i.e., the sum of tax and non-tax 2021 2022 2023 2024e revenue) rose from US$589 million (13.4 percent of GDP) Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations to US$702 million (14.7 percent of GDP), supported by higher collections of taxes on income and profits and on external grant inflows dwindled. Revenue from taxes on goods and services. Total government spending declined income and profits rose from 5.1 percent of GDP in 2023 significantly from US$1,192 million in 2023 (27.2 percent to 5.5 percent in 2024, while those from international of GDP) to US$1,161 million (24.3 percent of GDP) in trade taxes edged up from 4.3 percent to 4.6 percent of 2024, reflecting strong fiscal consolidation. Importantly, GDP. Although revenue from goods and services taxes the overall fiscal deficit (including grants) narrowed remained at 1.5 percent of GDP, a strong rebound in sharply from 7.1 percent of GDP in 2023 to 2.0 percent non-tax revenue, from 1.9 percent to 2.8 percent of in 2024, while the primary deficit fell from 6.1 percent of GDP, bolstered overall collections. External grants also GDP to 1.0 percent, reflecting major consolidation efforts increased, from 6.7 percent of GDP in 2023 to 7.8 percent (Figure 10). Public debt also declined modestly, from of GDP in 2024, although they are projected to decline 57.8 percent to 57.2 percent of GDP. These fiscal gains in the medium term (Figure 11). Liberia continues to were anchored by deliberate policy measures aimed at forgo substantial revenues through tax expenditures, strengthening domestic revenue mobilization, improving estimated at around 6.2 percent of GDP based on expenditure efficiency, and maintaining macroeconomic 2023 assessments.4 Domestic revenue mobilization discipline under the IMF-supported Extended Fund improved in 2024, with domestic resources accounting Facility program. for an increasing share of total government financing. This shift signals early success in fiscal consolidation, 18. Liberia’s revenue performance in 2024 reflected while highlighting the need to streamline exemptions stronger domestic resource mobilization, even as and incentives. FIGURE 11: Resource envelope (% of GDP) FIGURE 12: Public expenditures (% of GDP) Income and pro ts taxes Goods and service taxes International trade taxes Wages and salaries Goods and services Interests Other taxes Non-tax revenue Total grants Subsidies and transfers Social bene ts Capital expenditures Total revenue and grants Total expenditure 35 30 27.2 30 29.7 25 27.2 27.2 22.5 25 24.3 21.6 20 20.1 20 15 15 10 10 5 5 0 0 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2021 2022 2023 2024 Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations Source: Liberian authorities and World Bank staff calculations 4 Reference. September 2025 | Edition No. 6 7 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook 19. Expenditure trends in 2024 showed the impact of that vulnerabilities persist, particularly in the event of decisive fiscal consolidation, with recurrent spending weaker-than-expected growth or revenue performance, falling sharply and capital investment increasing. Total and that prudent borrowing practices and robust debt government expenditure declined from US$1,192 million management frameworks remain paramount. in 2023 (27.2 percent of GDP) to US$1,161 million in 2024 (24.3 percent of GDP), a significant reduction equal to G. Liberia’s economic outlook is positive, about three percentage points of GDP (Figure 12). Recurrent contingent on successful reforms and global spending, driven mainly by wages and goods and services, economic trends contracted substantially: the wage bill decreased from 21. Global growth seems set to weaken amid rising 7.1 percent of GDP to 6.3 percent. Spending on goods trade tensions and structural vulnerabilities. The latest and services declined sharply, falling from 9.9 percent of global outlook from the IMF6 points to global growth GDP to 6.1 percent, a reduction of US$144 million. This challenges, amid rising trade-related uncertainty and contraction was largely driven by significant reductions shifting policy dynamics that have weakened investor in allocations to the National Elections Commission confidence. As a result, global growth is projected to and the National Security Agency.5 In contrast, capital slow to 2.8 percent in 2025 and 3.0 percent in 2026, down expenditure increased from US$ 293 million (6.7 percent from earlier forecasts of 3.3 percent and well below the of GDP) in 2023 to US$390 million (8.2 percent of GDP) 2000–2019 average of 3.7 percent. Advanced economies in 2024 driven largely by external financing. Interest are expected to expand by 1.4 percent in 2025, with the payments increased slightly in nominal terms, from forecast for the US downgraded to 1.8 percent. Growth US$43 million (1.0 percent of GDP) in 2023 to US$49 in emerging and developing economies is also revised million (1.0 percent of GDP), reflecting higher debt downward to 3.7 percent, with countries more exposed service obligations. Overall, the 2024 expenditure profile to recent disruptions in global trade flows—such as reflects a strong reorientation toward fiscal discipline, China—facing the steepest drops. The outlook remains primarily through cuts in recurrent spending. clouded by downside risks, including elevated financial market volatility, limited policy buffers, and increasing 20. The public debt charted a trajectory of cautious pressures on low-income countries amid constrained stabilization, with the debt-to-GDP ratio declining development financing and rising debt servicing costs. modestly. The total public and publicly guaranteed (PPG) Ensuring stable trade relations and addressing underlying debt dropped from 57.8 percent of GDP in 2023 to 57.2 structural vulnerabilities will be critical to reversing the percent in 2024, reversing the upward trend observed weakening trend in global growth. between 2020 and 2023. External debt declined slightly from 36.7 percent to 36.1 percent of GDP, while 22. Commodity prices are projected to decline sharply domestic debt recorded a more notable fall from 21.8 in 2025 and 2026, driven by softer global demand percent to 20.4 percent of GDP, reflecting restrained and rising supply, with oil playing a central role in the domestic borrowing and improved fiscal management. downturn. Commodity prices are expected to fall by The modest reduction in the overall debt burden was around 12 percent in 2025, followed by an additional 5 supported by stronger fiscal balances, underpinned percent decline next, bringing the overall index to a six- by revenue gains and expenditure rationalization. year low.7 This broad-based softening reflects slowing According to the 2024 Low-Income Country (LIC) Debt global economic activity, which is dampening demand Sustainability Analysis (DSA) jointly conducted by the across markets. Oil prices are set to lead to the decline, as IMF and the World Bank, Liberia remains at moderate subdued consumption growth coincides with increased risk of external debt distress but faces a high overall supply, particularly if OPEC+ reverses its voluntary risk of debt distress, with limited space to absorb production cuts. More than half of the commodities shocks in the baseline scenario. The DSA underscores tracked by the World Bank in its commodity markets 5 The primary contributors 2023 fiscal slippages were higher-than-budgeted recurrent spending, particularly on goods and services, which increased to 9.9 percent of GDP from 9.7 percent in 2022, with notable increases in spending for the National Security Agency (NSA) and the Legislature: the NSA alone overran its budget allocation by two percentage points of GDP in 2023. Election-related expenditures further exacerbated the fiscal strain, leading to a primary deficit of 6.1 percent of GDP, compared to 4.4 percent in 2022. 6 https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook-april-2025 7 https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/fbc3b73a-916d-4309-ab09-6324b3feef0f/content 8 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook outlook are projected to see price drops this year, often energy and transport infrastructure, are also expected exceeding 10 percent. These developments extend an to reduce supply-side pressures, contributing to lower exceptionally volatile decade for global commodity inflation and greater price stability. markets, marked by sharp price swings and significant macroeconomic impacts. For Liberia, where gold and 25. The fiscal position is set to improve, driven iron ore are the two major exports, the outlook is mixed. by stronger domestic revenues and sustained While prices of industrial commodities such as iron ore consolidation. Liberia’s fiscal outlook is projected to may come under pressure, gold prices are expected strengthen over the medium term, with the overall to remain resilient amid geopolitical uncertainty and deficit narrowing to an average of 2.4 percent of GDP investor demand for safe-haven assets. Over the next between 2025 and 2027. The improvement reflects two years, falling commodity prices are expected a combination of enhanced domestic resource to ease global inflationary pressures. However, risks mobilization and continued efforts to rationalize remain skewed to the downside: a deeper-than- expenditures. Although revenue-enhancing measures anticipated global slowdown or sustained financial have experienced delays in 2025, they are expected to tightening could further suppress demand, especially gain traction in subsequent years. The implementation for industrial goods. On the other hand, a potential for a of the VAT law, now planned for early 2027, is also rebound in global trade, as well as supply disruptions due expected to boost revenues. On the expenditure side, to geopolitical tensions or extreme weather events could ongoing reforms to strengthen budget execution and push prices higher. shift spending towards growth-enhancing priorities will support fiscal consolidation. In line with these efforts, 23. Medium-term growth prospects for Liberia remain the public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline, positive, underpinned by expansion in key sectors reaching 55 percent by 2027. and structural reforms. Real GDP growth is projected to average 5.2 percent between 2025 and 2027, with 26. External imbalances are projected to narrow, as per capita income rising by an average of 3.0 percent exports grow and import demand moderates. Liberia’s annually. On average, the agricultural and industrial current account deficit is expected to average around sectors are projected to contribute a combined 3.0 13.7 percent over 2025-27 building on the progress percentage points to average overall growth, while the achieved in 2024. This adjustment will be driven by a services sector contributes 2.2 percentage points. This rebound in exports, particularly of gold, alongside slower momentum will be supported by ongoing reforms in import growth and steady remittance inflows. Gross the energy sector, increased foreign direct investment international reserves are projected to increase, reaching in mining, and targeted infrastructure development a level equivalent to three months of imports by 2027, up (including in electricity access, road connectivity, and from two months in 2024, signaling improved external telecommunications), reinforcing output growth across buffers and resilience. all sectors. Reflecting the growth outlook, the share of the population living below the international poverty 27. Downside risks are substantial, although some line is projected to decline steadily from 26.4 percent in upside potential remains. The balance of risks to the 2024 to 20.9 percent by 2027. medium-term outlook is tilted to the downside. Domestic challenges such as weak governance, fiscal or monetary 24. Inflation is projected to moderate gradually, policy slippages, and a potential decline in external aid amid tighter monetary and fiscal policies and waning could undermine ongoing consolidation efforts and supply-side constraints. Headline inflation is projected macroeconomic stability. The USAID programmed more to increase from 8.3 percent in 2024 to an average of 10.7 than $100 million in support to Liberia for 2025, targeting percent in 2025, before easing to 6.8 percent by 2027. key sectors such as health, education, agriculture, and This disinflationary trend in the medium term will be technical assistance, including in tax administration. supported by a combination of tighter monetary policy, a The suspension of these activities is expected to disrupt prudent fiscal stance, and easing food and energy prices. service delivery in these critical areas and will likely Efforts to address structural bottlenecks, particularly in undermine growth prospects, particularly through September 2025 | Edition No. 6 9 Recent Economic Developments and Outlook the services sector. As the bulk of this funding was off and persistent global trade uncertainty could weigh budget, the immediate fiscal impact is limited. However, on export earnings and fiscal revenues. These risks may if other development partners do not step in to fill the hamper growth and slow down poverty reduction. resulting service delivery gaps, the government may Conversely, higher-than-expected prices for key exports face increased fiscal pressure over time to substitute for such as gold could bolster revenues and improve the these funding. On the external front, further declines overall outlook. in the prices of key commodities, particularly iron ore, 10 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Escaping The Underemployment Trap PART TWO ESCAPING THE UNDEREMPLOYMENT TRAP: CHARTING LIBERIA’S PATH TO RESILIENT GROWTH AND PRODUCTIVE JOBS L iberia’s economic and employment challenges stem from deep-rooted structural constraints, including low human capital, a weak and informal private sector, decade (2004–2013) was marked by robust economic performance, with real GDP growing at an average annual rate of 7.4 percent. During this period, real per and limited economic complexity. While the post-war capita income increased by 3.1 percent annually, and decade saw strong growth and job creation, progress has approximately 600,000 new jobs were created. Growth stalled since 2014 due to successive shocks and a lack of was fueled by substantial foreign aid aimed at rebuilding productivity-enhancing transformation. Liberia’s labor force institutions, social services, and infrastructure, as well and demographic potential have been growing, but most as increased investment in mining and agriculture, new jobs remain informal, vulnerable, and concentrated supported by favorable global prices for rubber and in low-productivity sectors, such as trade and subsistence iron ore. While employment growth was broad-based, agriculture. The private sector is dominated by micro- the services sector outpaced industry and agriculture in enterprises, which have limited capacity to scale or create terms of job creation. quality employment. Unlocking inclusive, job-rich growth will require coordinated reforms to stimulate domestic 2. Growth decelerated sharply between 2014 and production, support productive firms, improve the business 2024, due to successive external and domestic shocks. environment, strengthen sector competitiveness, and From 2014 to 2020, Liberia’s economic trajectory was expand labor market participation, particularly for youth disrupted by the Ebola epidemic, a collapse in global and women. commodity prices, the withdrawal of UN peacekeeping forces, and the COVID-19 pandemic. These shocks led H. Growth performance and structural to economic stagnation and contraction in 2019 and transformation 2020. Economic growth has picked up since 2021, Liberia experienced economic growth and job creation a trend that must be sustained if not accelerated in its early post-war years, but momentum slowed after for more meaningful development outcomes. On 2014 amid successive shocks, even as the structure of the balance, between 2014 and 2024, average annual GDP economy shifted away from agriculture toward services growth dropped sharply to 1.4 percent, cumulative and industry. per capita income declined by 5.8 percent, and the pace of job creation fell to about 50,000 new jobs per 1. Liberia’s post-war decade saw strong economic year, down from a little over 60, 000 new jobs in the growth and broad-based job creation. The first post-war previous decade. FIGURE 13: Real GDP growth (in percent) FIGURE 14: Shares of value added (constant 2015 USD) Liberia SSA LIC Agriculture Industry Services 14 100 12 10 80 8 6 60 4 2 40 0 -2 20 -4 -6 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: WDI, IMF Data, and World Bank estimates Source: WDI, IMF Data, and World Bank estimates September 2025 | Edition No. 6 11 Escaping The Underemployment Trap 3. Liberia’s economy has undergone a structural economy) and leading to a cumulative 10.5 percent drop transformation, shifting value added and employment in overall output per worker during the period. toward services. Since 2004, real output growth has been strongest in the industrial and services sectors with 5. Strong productivity gains boosted per-capita compound annual growth rates of 10.3 percent and 6.3 income growth in the first post-war decade but waned percent, respectively, versus 1.1 percent in agriculture. after 2014. Over the past two decades, Liberia’s GDP per By 2024, the services sector had become the largest capita grew at an annual rate of 1.1 percent, yielding contributor to total value added, accounting for 40 a cumulative increase of 22 percent. This growth was percent, up from 27 percent in 2004, while the industrial modest relative to structural peers (e.g., Burkina Faso, sector’s share increased from 8 percent to 24 percent. Guinea, Sierra Leone) and well below the levels of Conversely, the share of agriculture plunged from 65 aspirational peers (e.g., Ghana and Senegal), although percent to 36 percent. These structural shifts have driven it outpaced the average for low-income countries a major reallocation of employment from agriculture to (Figure 17). A decomposition of growth drivers reveals services, while employment in industry has remained that labor productivity accounted for about 80 percent of relatively stable (Figure 15). the increase in GDP per capita between 2004 and 2023, while the demographic shift contributed 23 percent 4. Employment gains have primarily occurred in low- (Figure 18). Such gains were primarily realized during the productivity sectors, limiting income growth. Liberia first post-war decade (2004–2013), when productivity has recorded substantial job creation over the past two rose significantly across sectors and especially in mining decades, with total employment increasing from 1.4 and services. million in 2004 to 2.5 million in 2023, an 82 percent rise. Over this period, most new jobs emerged in services 6. Economic stagnation depressed productivity and agriculture, although these sectors experienced from 2014 to 2020, but there are signs of incipient diverging trends in terms of their respective shares of total recovery. Repeated shocks stalled the economic employment. The share of services grew from 37 percent momentum and eroded earlier gains in labor to 53 percent, while the agriculture’s share fell from 53 productivity (particularly in labor-intensive sectors), percent to 39 percent. However, labor in both sectors employment, and labor force participation, while suffered from low productivity and limited earnings marginally offsetting growth-supporting demographic potential. From 2014 to 2023, output per worker in trends. Early signs of recovery, however, have services and agriculture declined at average annual rates appeared over the past three years: labor productivity of 2.5 percent and 1.1 percent, respectively, offsetting a has recovered slightly, employment has increased, and 3.3 percent annual productivity gain in industry (largely labor force participation has improved, contributing to a driven by mining with little spillovers for the rest of the modest rebound in per-capita income growth. FIGURE 15: Trends in employment by sector (in thousands) FIGURE 16: Value added per worker (Index: 2004=100) Agriculture Industry GDP per person employed Agriculture Services Employed population Industry Services 3,000 500 2,500 400 2,000 300 1,500 200 1,000 500 100 0 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Source: WDI and World Bank calculations Source: WDI and World Bank calculations 12 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Escaping The Underemployment Trap FIGURE 17: Per-capita GDP growth vs structural peers FIGURE 18: Composition of growth in GDP per capita, 2004-2023 2,500 Labor productivity Employment rate Participation rate Demographic change Per capita growth GHA Percent, percentage points 2,000 GDP per capita (constant 2015 6.0 SSA USD), 2023 1,500 SEN 4.0 SLE 2.0 1,000 GIN 0.0 LIC BFA LBR 500 -2.0 -4.0 - 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 -6.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 GDP per capita (annual average growth rate, 2004-2023) Source: WDI, WB estimates Source: World Bank calculations using the World Bank’s GDP per capita Growth Note: BFA= Burkina Faso, GHA=Ghana, GIN=Guinea, LBR=Liberia, LIC = Low Income Decomposition Tool8 Countries, SEN=Senegal, SLE=Sierra Leone, and SSA=Sub Saharan Africa I. Labor market dynamics and productivity of the total, up from 54 percent in 2014, reflecting trends declining fertility and mortality rates (Figure 19). Thanks to favorable demographic trends, the dependency ratio Liberia’s expanding labor force and favorable demographics present an opportunity, but job creation declined from 86 percent in 2004 to 76 percent in 2023, has been concentrated in low-productivity, informal pointing to reduced pressure on the working population sectors, highlighting the urgent need for better, and a growing potential labor force. more productive employment to realize the country’s demographic dividend. 8. However, few new entrants in the labor market secure stable and productive jobs. The labor force has 7. Liberia’s expanding working-age population offers expanded rapidly, but economic absorption has been a demographic window of opportunity if job quality weak. From 2014 to 2023, the working-age population improves. The working-age population has expanded grew at an annual rate of 2.5 percent. With 84 percent steadily, growing at a faster pace than the overall of new working-age individuals entering the labor force, population. According to the 2022 Liberia National the labor supply increased by an average of 55,000 new Population and Housing Census, more than one-third of entrants per year (Figure 20). Yet only a small share of the population is under 15 years of age, and the working- new entrants found formal or productive jobs. Between age population (15–64 years) now accounts for 57 percent 2014 and 2023, nine out of ten new jobs were created FIGURE 19: About one-quarter of the population will reach working FIGURE 20: An expanding working-age population has been the age in the next 10 years primary driver of labor-force growth Female Male Working-age population Labor force 95+ 100 90-94 85-89 80-84 No. of new entrants ('000) 75-79 80 70-74 65-69 60-64 55-59 50-54 60 45-49 40-44 35-39 30-34 40 25-29 20-24 15-19 10-14 20 05-09 00-04 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 Source: Liberia Population and Housing Census, 2022 Source: WDI and World Bank calculations 8 The annual growth in per-capita value added is the sum of changes in productivity, employment rate, participation rate, and share of the population that is of working age. September 2025 | Edition No. 6 13 Escaping The Underemployment Trap in low-productivity sectors, particularly agriculture and 10. Poor education outcomes and skills mismatches unsophisticated services (Figure 22). The services sector contribute to persistent underemployment. Liberia’s accounted for three-quarters of total employment underemployment challenge is partly rooted in growth, but most of it consists of informal, low-paying weak human capital outcomes, including low school jobs in trade and transportation. enrollment, high dropout rates, and poor-quality education. Children receive just 4.4 years of schooling on 9. A high labor-force participation rate masks the average, falling to 2.2 years when adjusted for learning prevalence of low-quality, informal jobs. Labor market quality, the lowest figure globally.11 Learning gaps are participation is high, but employment quality remains especially severe for women: only 9 percent of adult a major constraint. The labor force participation women in the poorest quintile are literate, and even rate stands at around 78 percent, and the official among wealthier women, literacy remains low at 45 unemployment rate is low at approximately 3 percent, percent. These deficits constrain access to better jobs suggesting widespread engagement in economic and contribute to gender inequality in the labor market. activity. However, headline employment figures mask significant underemployment and job informality. 11. The demographic dividend hinges on creating Most new jobs are not in wage-paying, productive better jobs, not just more jobs. Unlocking Liberia’s employment. The ILO reports that the share of the demographic potential will depend not just on workforce in vulnerable employment9 in Liberia expanding employment but on improving its quality. is as high as 78 percent, while the share of wage Despite favorable demographics and high labor force employment has stagnated at around 20 percent over participation, the absence of structural transformation the past two decades. According to the 2022 National in the labor market risks leaving the growing youth Population and Housing Census, 20.9 percent of the population underutilized. To reap the benefits of working population is in wage employment, 49.7 its demographic transition, Liberia must focus on percent is self-employed, and 29.4 percent participates generating more and better jobs, particularly in higher- in contributing family work. In low-income contexts productivity sectors that can offer wage employment, such as Liberia, self-employment is often synonymous income stability, and upward mobility for its young and with informal, low-paying, and insecure jobs, particularly expanding labor force. in subsistence agriculture and petty trade.10 FIGURE 21: Most jobs created in recent decades have been FIGURE 22: … and concentrated in low-productivity services of low quality… and agriculture Share of paid employment in total employment Agriculture Industry Services Share of vulnerable employment in total employment 100 100 80 80 60 60 Percent Percent 40 40 20 20 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 0 2004-2013 2014-2023 Source: WDI and World Bank calculations Source: WDI and World Bank calculations 9 According to the ILO, persons in vulnerable employment (both own-account workers and contributing family workers) are more prone to have informal work arrangements and less likely to have social security coverage and benefit from social dialogue. 10 The 2024 National Establishment Census reveals that the services sector accounted for over 80 percent of employment by firms, with firms in trade and transportation services making up two-thirds of employment in services. 11 Liberia Human Capital Assessment Report (2021). 14 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Escaping The Underemployment Trap J. Labor demand and job-creation potential account for most of the employment at firm level, with the former employing 45 percent of workers, and the Unlocking Liberia’s jobs potential requires a dynamic and latter another 26 percent (Figure 24). In contrast, only vibrant private sector, yet most firms remain small, informal, 6 percent of Liberian firms have 10 employees or more, and concentrated in low-productivity services, with limited and less than 1 percent have 100 or more. capacity to generate quality jobs at scale. 12. Liberia needs a viable private sector that creates 13. The services sector, especially trade, dominates more, better, and inclusive jobs, but most private firm activity and employment. About 90 percent of firms in the country are informal and micro-sized, with all firms operate in the services sector, which employs limited employment capacity. Among the more than 82 percent of the firm-level workforce. Within services, 40,000 firms covered by the 2024 National Establishment trade is the largest subsector, accounting for 72 Census (NEC), 86 percent are micro-sized, 12 percent percent of all businesses and 47 percent of firm-level are small, and only 2 percent are medium-sized or large employment (Figure 25). Other significant subsectors (Figure 23). Notably, nearly 89 percent of all firms are include education, health, and social services (20 single-person operations.12 Informality is widespread. percent of services employment) and accommodation About 60 percent of firms are not registered with the tax and food services (5.8 percent). Agriculture and industry authority, and 68 percent are not listed in the national are comparatively underrepresented, with less than 10 business registry. Micro-sized and small businesses percent of businesses combined and only 18 percent FIGURE 23: Liberia’s private sector comprises mostly micro and FIGURE 24: Micro and small firms account for more than two-thirds small firms of firm-level employment 90 85.9 50 44.8 75 40 60 30 Percent 25.9 Percent 45 20 17.9 30 11.4 11.9 10 15 2.1 0.1 0 0 Micro (<5) Small (5-19) Medium (20-99) Large (100+) Micro (<5) Small (5-19) Medium (20-99) Large (100+) Source: National Establishment Census (2024) and World Bank calculations Source: National Establishment Census (2024) and World Bank calculations FIGURE 25: Trade is the largest subsector of the economy by share FIGURE 26: Most private-sector workers are self-employed of firms and of employment Professional & Administrative services Utilities, construction, mining Self-employed workes Salaried workers Education, health, social security ICT, nance, real estate Transport, storage Agriculture Accommodation and food service activities Manufacturing Trade Other services Services % of workers Industry % of rms Agriculture 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percent - 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 Source: National Establishment Census (2024) and World Bank calculations Source: Liberia’s 2024 National Establishment Census and World Bank calculations 12 The categorization of firms follows the World Bank Group enterprise survey approach. The size of the firm is determined by the number of employees: 5 to 19 (small), 20 to 99 (medium), and 100 or more (large). Firms with less than five employees are considered as micro firms. September 2025 | Edition No. 6 15 Escaping The Underemployment Trap of firm-level employment. Notably, manufacturing manufacturing and construction (23 percent of paid accounts for just 7 percent of firms but employs 16 workers). Agriculture also features a sizable wage- percent of workers, suggesting a larger average firm size employed segment, primarily reflecting paid workers in relative to other sectors. rubber and palm plantations. FIGURE 27: The share of self-employed workers is particularly high in trade 15. Geographically, business activity is concentrated Self employed workers only Salaried workers only in Montserrado and other areas with comparatively Self employed and salaried workers good infrastructure and access to services. Other services Montserrado County alone hosts more than two-thirds Trade Manufacturing of all businesses, with only a handful of additional Accommodation & food service activities counties being home to a meaningful share of Liberia’s Agriculture Transport, storage firms: Margibi (6.7 percent), Nimba (4.3 percent), Bong ICT, nance, real estate (3.9 percent), Lofa (3.0 percent), and Grand Bassa (3.0 Education, health, social security percent). This geographical concentration largely reflects Utilities, construction, mining Professional & administrative disparities in road access and electricity supply across 0 20 40 60 80 100 the country. Percent Source: Liberia’s 2024 National Establishment Census and World Bank calculations 16. The rate of business creation in Liberia, particularly for formal enterprises, is among the lowest in the world. 14. Self-employment is ubiquitous, particularly in According to the World Bank Entrepreneurship Database, trade. Forty-four percent of firm-level workers are exclusively self-employed, while 16 percent combine Liberia only counts 2 newly registered limited liability self-employment with wage work, and only 40 percent companies (LLCs) per 10,000 adults each year—a rate 165 work exclusively as wage employees. The trade subsector, times lower than the global average, and substantially in particular, accounts for 72 percent of exclusively self- lower than the averages for both Sub-Saharan Africa employed individuals and 41 percent of those who and low-income countries. In 2020, Liberia had 15 times combine self-employment and wage work. Notably, fewer LLCs than Sierra Leone or Guinea, and 25 times only 22 percent of trade workers are solely salaried fewer than Cote d’Ivoire or Senegal. Similarly, the 2024 employees. In contrast, structured wage employment is NEC shows that LLCs account for less than 1 percent of more common in education, health, and social services all firms nationwide, indicating limited formalization and (41 percent of paid workers), and in industry, including legal structuring of enterprises. FIGURE 28: Share of firms by county FIGURE 29: Share of firm-level employment by county Source: National Establishment Census (2024) and World Bank calculations Note: Darker shade on map implies concentration of firms in Figure 28 and of employment in Figure 29, and vice versa 16 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Escaping The Underemployment Trap 17. The age distribution of firms reflects a sluggish demand, empowers productive firms, reforms the business pace of business renewal. According to the 2017 environment, and expands opportunities for women and World Bank Enterprise Survey, only 12.5 percent of youth. formal firms were less than five years old, while 31 percent had been in operation for 10–15 years. The 19. Recent diagnostics highlight four mutually 2024 NEC shows a similar pattern, albeit with modest reinforcing transitions that can foster growth as well progress: 38 percent of firms are categorized as older as secure and productive employment. They include: (i) establishments, 31 percent as young, and 29 percent stimulating labor demand through domestic production as new. The small share of newly established firms and value addition, (ii) enabling the emergence reinforces concerns about constraints in the business and growth of productive firms, (iii) undertaking environment, including limited access to finance, bold, coordinated reforms to improve the business regulatory complexity, and infrastructural bottlenecks. environment, and (iv) supporting active labor market participation, especially among women and youth. This 18. A productive base focused on low-complexity strategy is not prescriptive but offers a framework for goods constrains job quality and productivity gains. policymakers to chart a path toward inclusive growth More and better jobs are often created when firms and meaningful job creation. By addressing both labor- produce goods that meet growing domestic and demand and supply-side constraints, Liberia can begin export demand, especially complex products that to reverse its underemployment trend and build a more require higher skills and enable productivity gains. dynamic and equitable economy. In Liberia, however, most domestic needs are met by imports, and exports are narrowly concentrated in a 20. Stimulate Labor Demand through Competitive few natural resources. The country’s small domestic Domestic Production and Value Addition in sectors market and limited production capabilities constrain that have high employment potential. Liberia’s ability its ability to shift labor into more productive sectors. to generate more and better jobs hinges on expanding Economic complexity has declined in recent years, productive activities that build on its comparative with Liberia ranking last out of 133 countries on this advantages and respond to both domestic and export- metric in 2021—down 43 places since 2017, signaling a related opportunities. Boosting labor demand requires growing reliance on low-complexity goods and limited investing in sectors that have high employment potential for quality job creation. potential such as agro-processing, wood products, and basic manufacturing, and those that can enhance K. Liberia’s pathways to growth and quality value addition and create linkages across the economy. job creation The goal is to raise domestic competitiveness, reduce To escape the underemployment trap, Liberia must structural dependence on raw commodity exports, and pursue a coordinated strategy that stimulates labor build capabilities that enable firms to scale and compete FIGURE 30: Newly registered LLCs per 1,000 adults, Liberia and FIGURE 31: LLCs per 1,000 adults, Liberia and comparators comparators 2.5 16.0 14.0 2.0 12.0 10.0 1.5 8.0 1.0 6.0 4.0 0.5 2.0 0.0 0.0 Rwanda Côte Senegal Ghana Guinea Sierra Liberia Rwanda Ghana SSA Guinea Sierra LIC Burkina Liberia d'Ivoire Leone Leone Faso Aspirational Structural Source: World Bank Entrepreneurship Database Source: World Bank Entrepreneurship Database September 2025 | Edition No. 6 17 Escaping The Underemployment Trap Box 2 Catalyzing jobs through Liberia’s wood value chain Liberia’s wood value chain has strong potential to become a major driver of jobs and economic growth if supported by deliberate policy action and private sector engagement. The government’s comprehensive vision for the forest sector, anchored in the “4Cs” approach (Community, Commercial, Conservation, and Carbon), reflects this ambition. However, the sector has largely functioned as a source of fiscal revenue through raw log exports, with limited focus on value addition in country or employment creation. This approach has contributed to resource depletion, low levels of formal employment, and missed opportunities for industrial growth and left Liberia vulnerable to global market volatility with timber export revenues having declined by 20% over the past three years. A potential source of growth and quality jobs at scale While jobs from the sector is currently concentrated in low skilled jobs such as chainsaw milling, current figures are indicative of the sector’s potential to create better jobs at scale if industry is catalyzed. Chainsaw milling alone supports around 24,000 regular jobs and contributes to approximately 3-4 percent of Liberia’s GDP (World Bank, 2020). Beyond this, for every two direct jobs, an additional one indirect job (in transportation, equipment maintenance, or input supply) and three induced jobs (e.g., in food services, retail, or housing, supported by worker spending) are created (FAO, 2022). These figures suggests that forestry supports an additional 12,000 indirect and 36,000 induced jobs, resulting in a total of approximately 72,000 livelihoods linked to basic wood processing. The economic impact of the sector could be even greater when production shifts from raw timber exports to domestic solid wood processing, such as sawn wood, plywood, and furniture components. This segment of the value chain has a higher economic multiplier effect. According to FAO, every dollar earned in solid wood processing generates USD 5.17 in total economic output, compared to USD 3.33 for basic logging activities. As such, catalyzing solid wood processing in Liberia has important implications for both jobs and growth. A regional inspiration: Gabon’s wood transformation success Gabon offers a compelling example of what is possible. A 2010 ban on raw log exports, coupled with incentives for domestic processing and special economic zones (SEZs), led to a surge in job creation and foreign investment. The country’s wood products sector now exports processed goods globally and supports a broad ecosystem of value- added industries such as furniture making and plywood manufacturing. What will it take for Liberia? To unlock similar gains, Liberia must reduce the high costs and risks facing private investors across five critical dimensions: regulation, infrastructure, finance, labor, and innovation. Key interventions could include: 1. Strengthening governance through enhanced legality, traceability, and enforcement of fair competition and formalization rules. 2. Establishing industrial clusters or SEZs, with reliable access to energy, infrastructure, and shared machinery through public-private partnerships. 3. De-risking long-term finance for capital-intensive investments like processing machinery or biomass energy generation. 4. Expanding workforce skills via targeted vocational training aligned with industry needs. 5. Fostering innovation through wood centers of excellence, entrepreneurship support services, and market development for processed wood and non-timber forest products (NTFPs). By shifting from raw extraction to value creation, Liberia can turn its wood into a source of inclusive and sustainable economic transformation, generating thousands of jobs, expanding rural livelihoods, and positioning itself as a leader in green industrialization. Through the Liberia, Investment, Finance and Trade Project, the World Bank is supporting a sector scan and value proposition analysis with the aim of generating useful insights to shape future development of this value chain. 18 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 Escaping The Underemployment Trap in regional and global markets. Encouraging increased • Establishing a high-level reform coordination consumption of quality “Made in Liberia” products, and mechanism to lead and monitor reform efforts. securing a stronger foothold in export markets, will be • Prioritizing reforms with a clear focus on jobs and essential to shifting labor into more productive, wage- boosting investor confidence such as enhancing paying jobs. contract enforcement, strengthening the commercial court and an effective insolvency regime, expanding 21. Enable the entry and expansion of productive financial inclusion, and investing in trade facilitation firms. Firms are the engine of job creation, but Liberia’s and quality infrastructure. current firm structure, dominated by informal micro- • De-risking priority sectors, particularly agriculture, enterprises, cannot deliver the needed quantity or quality forestry, and infrastructure, to crowd-in private of jobs. A targeted agenda should focus on removing investment through PPPs, zones, and diaspora barriers to growth and expansion for firms: engagement. Each sector requires targeted • Upgrading and scaling productive firms, by reducing interventions, many of which are well documented the regulatory burden, facilitating access to inputs in existing government strategy documents and including finance, shared facilities such as zones, and development partner publications. promoting technology adoption. Better trade and competition policies and targeted public support 23. Expand labor market participation and including effective investment after-care services will entrepreneurship for women and youth. A strategy also be critical to scaling productive firms to empower Liberians, especially women and youth, as • Exiting unproductive firms, by modernizing insolvency both job seekers and job creators must entail: and de-registration systems. • Investing in human capital, ensuring that education, • Encouraging new firm entry, by streamlining health, and social protection systems enable resilient, registration and licensing, digitizing key government labor-ready households. to business services relevant at entry, and expanding • Promoting job-relevant skills, through TVET, digital access and entrepreneurial support systems. apprenticeships, and wrap-around services such as mentoring, childcare, and access to credit and Large and growing firms which are currently less than 1 markets. percent of Liberia’s private businesses must be central to this strategy, due to their outsized role in creating • Expanding access to jobs, through active labor quality jobs. market programs, job-search support, and inclusive employment policies. 22. Organize for reform and coordinate business- • Strengthening entrepreneurship with targeted climate transformation. Sustained private sector support for women- and youth-led enterprises, growth requires a supportive and well-governed including early-stage finance, reforms of school business environment. Liberia must overcome years of curricula, and institutional support for start-ups and institutional inertia and coordination failures by: cooperatives. September 2025 | Edition No. 6 19 BIBLIOGRAPHY International Monetary Fund. (2025). World Economic Outlook: A Critical Juncture amid Policy Shifts. Washington, DC. April. Retrieved from https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2025/04/22/world-economic-outlook- april-2025 LISGIS. (2023). 2022 Liberia Population and Housing Census Final Results. Monrovia, Liberia: Liberia Institute of Statistics and Geo-Information Services. Retrieved April 2025, from https://www.lisgis.gov.lr/document/ LiberiaCensus2022Report.pdf LISGIS. (2024). National Establishment Census. Retrieved April 2025, from https://lisgis.gov.lr/census.php Ministry of Finance and Development Planning. (2024). Liberia Tax Expenditure Report (FY2018 - 2021). Retrieved April 2025, from https://www.mfdp.gov.lr/index.php/docs/publications/publications/liberia-tax-expenditure- report-fy2018-2021 Sarika Gupta, M. D. (2021). The Impact of Grants and Skills Training on Youth Employment Outcomes in Liberia. World Bank. (2014). Can Skills Training Programs Increase Employment for Young Women? The Case of Liberia. Retrieved from https://www.worldbank.org/en/results/2014/04/14/can-skills-training-programs-increase-employment- for-young-women-liberia#:~:text=The%20EPAG%20evaluation%20provides%20strong,been%20found%20 for%20similar%20programs. World Bank. (2017). Enterprise Surveys, Liberia. The World Bank Group. Retrieved April 2025, from www.enterprisesurveys.org World Bank. (2023). Liberia Poverty Assessment 2016 – Towards a more inclusive Liberia. Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099032124150035378/ P17739418373d30c419ffb1cd3dd5dfb684 World Bank. (2025). Commodity Markets Outlook, April 2025. Washington, D.C.: World Bank. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. Retrieved May 2024, from https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/ bitstreams/10913920-7b3d-4323-8ccc-43e764336dd2/content World Bank. (2025). Liberia Country Economic Memorandum - Escaping the Natural Resource Trap: Pathways to Sustainable Growth and Economic Diversification in Liberia (English). Washington D.C.: World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099030725074063020 World Bank. (2025). Macro Poverty Outlook for Liberia : April 2025 (English). Macro Poverty Outlook (MPO). Washington, D.C.: World Bank Group. Retrieved from http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099528504052436718/ IDU18e70221c1166d14ea41a09f11db652967b9b World Bank. (2025). 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License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. 20 September 2025 | Edition No. 6 ANNEX 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024e 2025f (Annual percentage change) Real sector Real GDP growth (annual percentage change) -3.0 5.0 4.8 4.7 4.0 4.6 Mining 2.0 17.6 14.0 5.7 1.8 4.9 Non-mining -3.2 4.3 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.6 Inflation Consumer prices (annual average) 17.4 7.9 7.6 10.1 8.3 10.7 Consumer prices (end of period) 13.1 5.5 9.2 10.0 10.7 9.0 (Percent of GDP) Central government operations Total revenue and grants 31.3 27.3 21.6 20.1 22.5 20.3 Domestic revenue 16.0 16.4 15.3 13.4 14.7 15.2 Tax revenue 13.0 13.8 12.3 11.5 11.9 12.4 Nontax revenue 3.0 2.6 3.0 1.9 2.8 2.8 Grants 15.3 10.9 6.3 6.7 7.8 5.1 Total expenditure 35.1 29.7 27.2 27.2 24.3 22.1 Current expenditure 24.5 21.9 21.0 20.5 16.1 16.4 Compensation of employees 10.9 8.5 7.5 7.1 6.3 6.1 Goods and services 11.2 10.2 9.7 9.9 6.1 6.0 Interest payments 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.0 1.0 1.3 Subsidies and grants 1.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.4 2.3 Social benefits 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.7 Capital expenditures 10.6 7.8 6.2 6.7 8.2 5.7 Overall balance -3.8 -2.4 -5.3 -7.1 -2.0 -1.8 Primary balance -2.6 -1.5 -4.4 -6.1 -1.0 -0.5 Memo: Total public debt 58.7 53.3 54.3 57.8 57.2 55.9 External debt 41.1 37.2 35.4 36.1 36.7 37.2 Nominal GDP 3,037 3,509 3,974 4,390 4,779 5,162 Source: Liberian authorities, IMF, World Bank staff estimates (August 2025) Note: e=estimates; f=forecast September 2025 | Edition No. 6 21