REPORT REPORT NO. 2 2 NO. Monitoring COVID-19 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts REPORT NO. 1 / December 2929 / 2020 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe X / October / 2020 Impact on Households C in Zimbabwe c Results from a High-Frequency Telephone Survey of Households INTRODUCTION The COVID-19 pandemic created an urgent need for timely information to help monitor and mitigate the social and economic impacts of the crisis. This information is essential to inform policy measures for protecting the welfare of Zimbabweans. Responding to this need, the Zimbabwe Statistics Agency (ZIMSTAT), together with the World Bank and UNICEF, designed a high- frequency telephone survey of households to measure the socio-economic impacts of COVID-19 in Zimbabwe. The survey builds on the Poverty, Income, Consumption and Expenditure Surveys (PICES) of 2017 and 2019 and used a sample of 1747 households in round 1 and 1639 households in round 2 from all ten provinces of Zimbabwe. The sample is representative of urban as well as rural areas. This survey is referred to as the Rapid PICES Monitoring Telephone Survey and is jointly funded by the Zimbabwe Reconstruction Fund (ZIMREF) and UNICEF, and implemented by ZIMSTAT with technical support from the World Bank and UNICEF. This brief report summarizes the results of the second round of the Rapid PICES, conducted from August 24th to September 23rd, 2020, and compares them to the findings of the first round conducted between July 6th and 24th, 2020. Computer-Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI) was used for data collection. An overview of the findings of the key indicators for both rounds is provided at the end of this note. HIGHLIGHTS – ROUND 2 The proportion of people who avoided social gatherings fell by 25 percentage points since the first round. Nevertheless, the vast majority of people continued to practice preventive measures such as wearing a mask in public or washing hands after being in public. There was a steep decline in the share of children engaged in distance learning between July and August and September 2020. The decline could have occurred because schools had reopened only for some grades or because some of the interviews were conducted before schools reopened on the 14th of September 2020. The proportion of employed urban households rose by 3 percentage points from round 1. However, households continue to report a drop in income. About two-thirds of non-farm business owners and 31% of wage earners had a lower income since the July interview. Further analysis of data from Round 1 using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale revealed that food insecurity in the country had worsened since 2019. About 31 percent of rural and 18 percent of urban households faced severe food insecurity, while 75 percent of rural households and 65 percent of urban households faced moderate food insecurity in July. The coverage of COVID-19 cash transfer increased in the second round in urban areas compared to July 2020. Additionally, a significantly smaller proportion of households in rural areas reported that they had received free food in August-September compared to July. 1 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe KNOWLEDGE To stop the spread of COVID-19, people must adopt preventive health AND BEHAVIOR measures. Results from the second survey round revealed that the proportion IN RESPONSE TO of people that avoided social gatherings dropped to 67 percent, down from 91 COVID-19 percent in July 2020. This decline was seen in both urban and rural areas (Figure 1a). The proportion of respondents wearing a mask in public remained largely unchanged, with about 94 percent wearing them in urban areas and 81 percent in rural areas (Figure 1b). The proportion of people that washed their hands after being in public also remained unchanged constituting 85 percent in rural areas and 89 percent in urban areas (Figure 1c). Figure 1: Proportion of respondents who employed Covid-19 preventive measures a) Avoid gatherings b) Wear masks all or most c) Wash hands all or most of of the time in public the time after being in public 100 91 90 100 100 Percentage of households 98 98 Percentage of households Percentage of households 80 67 96 70 96 96 94 94 94 60 92 92 50 90 90 90 40 89 88 88 30 87 87 86 87 86 87 85 86 20 84 84 84 10 82 82 81 0 80 80 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 National Urban Rural National Urban Rural National Urban Rural ACCESS TO The share of households that was able to buy basic food items increased BASIC FOOD slightly between rounds 1 and 2. The proportion of households that was able to NECESSITIES buy maize meal rose from 41 to 43 percent, that for cooking oil rose from 41 to 46 percent, while that for chicken rose from 15 to 18 percent (coloured bars Figure 2a).1 However, a smaller share of households tried to buy these basic goods in the second round compared to the first round. The share trying to buy maize meal fell from 64 to 59 percent, cooking oil from 76 to 70 percent, and chicken from 67 to 56 percent (full bars Figure 2a). As expected, in both rounds, the proportion of households able to buy basic food items was significantly higher in urban than rural areas (Figure 2b and Figure 2c). 1 Only the difference in cooking oil was statistically significant at 5 percent level of significance. 2 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Figure 2: Access to basic food necessities (Percentage of households that attempted to buy basic items and that was able to buy them) a) National b) Urban areas b) Urban areas 76 77 77 70 67 68 71 68 71 64 65 65 65 65 Percentage of households Percentage of households Percentage of households 59 62 62 56 52 56 52 56 46 49 48 49 48 41 43 41 33 36 33 36 15 18 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Maize Cooking oil Chicken Maize Cooking oil Chicken Maize Cooking oil Chicken meal meal meal Tried to buy Able to buy Tried to buy Able to buy Tried to buy Able to buy ACCESS TO HEALTH Of households that needed medical treatment, a slightly higher fraction was SERVICES able to access treatment (86 percent in the second round in August-September 2020 vs. 79 percent in the first survey round in July 2020). Lack of money was the main reason for not being able to access medical treatment. It was mentioned by 91 percent of those households unable to access treatment. ACCESS TO SCHOOLS Re-opening of schools since the lockdown in March 2020 happened in phases. AND LEARNING Schools were opened from 14 September 2020 for examination writing classes namely, grade 7, form 4, and form 6. Primary and secondary schools were reopened six months after they were closed due to the COVID-19 outbreak. Universities were also opened for students writing end-of-semester examinations. Differences in the practice of remote learning were observed between the period end August-September and July 2020. Consequently, the proportion of households with children completing assignments from parents dropped from 65 to 39 percent in rural areas, while increasing moderately from 44 to 47 percent in urban areas. The decline in the proportion of households with children who completed assignments from school teachers was particularly steep. The proportion of households with children completing assignments from teachers fell from 28 to 5 percent in urban areas and 16 to 3 percent in rural areas ( Figure 3). The decline could have occurred because schools had reopened only for some grades, or because the interviews for some households were conducted before schools reopened, so some children were not actively engaging in remote learning during the second round of the survey. 3 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Figure 3: Percentage of households with school children who engaged in an educational activity during the school lockdown period (% of those that continued learning) 70 70 65 Completed assignments 60 from teachers 60 Percentage of households Percentage of households Listened to educational 50 50 programs on the radio 47 39 44 Watched educational 40 40 programs on the tv 30 30 Used mobile learning 28 apps 20 20 16 Completed assignment from parents 10 10 3 Completed assignment 5 from tutors 0 0 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Communicated with teachers Urban areas Rural areas MIGRATION Since mid-March 2020, 3 percent of households had moved from one location to another. Of households that moved, most of them (62 percent) moved from one urban area to another urban area and 26 percent moved from one rural area to another rural area. Only 12 percent migrated from urban areas to rural areas while no household moved from rural to urban areas. This means that the Covid-19 lockdown had an impact on migration trends. EMPLOYMENT The share of respondents with a job rose marginally from 51 to 52 percent AND INCOME between the first and the second survey rounds (Figure 4).2 In urban areas, the employment rate increased from 61 to 64 percent compared to rural areas where it marginally went up from 45 to 46 percent.3 The employment rate of male workers rose from 54 in round 1 to 56 percent in round 2 while that for female workers rose from 43 to 45 percent in the same period respectively (Figure 4). 2 Having a job is defined as doing any work for pay, operating any kind of business, farming, or engaging in other activity to generate income, even if only for one hour in the last week. 3 However, these differences are not statistically significant at 5 percent level of significance and should thus be interpreted with caution. 4 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Figure 4: Employment status during the first and second survey rounds Round 1 Round 2 National 51 13 36 National 52 3 45 Urban 61 18 21 Urban 64 4 32 Rural 45 10 45 Rural 46 3 51 Male 54 13 32 Male 56 4 40 Female 43 13 44 Female 45 1 54 0 20 40 60 80 100 0 20 40 60 80 100 Percentage of household heads Percentage of household heads Worked last week Worked last week Worked pre-COVID but not last week Worked last month but not last week Did not work pre-COVID or last week Did not work last month or last week Households reported a further reduction in income from wages and non-farm businesses since the Round 1 interviews, although the proportion reporting this was smaller than when this question was asked in round 1 (Figure 5). Among those with a non-farm household business, almost two-thirds stated their incomes dropped since the last interview, and incomes also dropped for 31 % of wage earners. The drop in income partly reflects a fall in purchasing power due to the depreciation of the Zimbabwe dollar in which most incomes are received. At the same time, the proportion reporting a reduction in assistance from Government or NGOs and charitable organizations increased since the last survey round (Figure 5). Figure 5: Proportion of households saying their income was reduced or stopped since last interview (asked in round 2) and since the onset of covid19 (asked in round 1) (as a percentage of households reporting this kind of income) (for round 1 and 2) Assistance from NGOs/charitable organizations Assistance from the government Assistance from family members in the country Remittances from abroad Non-farm family business 64 87 Wages 31 44 Income from properties, investments or savings Pension 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Percentage of households Round 2 Round 1 Note 1: Respondents were asked about the change in household income “since March 2020” in the first round of the survey and “since the last interview” in the second round. Note 2: In round 2, the proportion of households stating they received income in the last 12 months from each source is as follows: non-farm family business 17 percent; wages 28 percent; remittances from abroad 12 percent; assistance from the family within the country 16 percent; income from properties, investments, or savings 4 percent; pension 6 percent; assistance from the government 15 percent; assistance from NGOs/charitable organizations 10 percent. 5 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe The share of wage workers among the employed fell from 42 to 38 percent between the two survey rounds, and the share of respondents operating their own business or working in a household farm increased (see Annex 2 at end of the report). A substantially higher proportion of wage earners reported receiving their wages for work done in the week before the survey. This share was 92 percent in round 2 compared to 64 percent in the first round (Annex 2). FOOD SECURITY According to Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical, social, and economic access to sufficient, safe, and nutritious food that meets their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life. Further analysis of the data from Round 1 using the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) shows that the proportion of households facing severe food insecurity has risen over the past years. It was 27 percent in July 2020, up from 7 percent in April-May 2019. Likewise, the proportion of households facing moderate insecurity increased from 42 to 72 percent during this period (Figure 6a). Rural households were more food insecure than urban households for both food security measures (Figure 6b). The FIES module comprises 8 questions on people’s access to adequate food. More details on the methodology are presented in Annex 1. Figure 6: Proportion of households experiencing severe and moderate food insecurity a) 2017 - 2020 b) July 2020 72 75 Percentage of households Percentage of households 65 52 42 33 27 15 31 5 7 18 Mar-June Oct-Nov Apr-May July 2017 2017 2019 2020 Severely food insecure Severely and moderately Severely food insecure food insecure Severely and moderately food insecure Rural Urban ASSISTANCE FROM The proportion of households receiving COVID-19 cash transfers increased THE GOVERNMENT between survey rounds 1 and 2. In urban areas, the proportion that received COVID-19 cash transfers rose from 3 to 10 percent in rounds 1 and 2 respectively. Only 1 percent of rural households received them (Figure 7). The proportion of households that received food aid dropped to 2 percent in the second round from 15 percent in the first round (Figure 7). This was caused by a large reduction in the share of rural households receiving food aid which fell from 23 to 3 percent. Only one percent of urban households received food aid in both survey rounds. 6 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Figure 7: Coverage of safety net programs (proportion of households receiving assistance) 25 25 Percentage of households COVID-19 cash Percentage of households 23 20 20 transfers Other cash 15 15 transfers 10 10 Free food 10 distribution 5 5 3 3 Public works 1 0 1 1 0 1 Round 1 Round 2 Round 1 Round 2 Other in-kind transfers Urban areas Rural areas UPCOMING The third round of the telephone survey was implemented from the 1st of ACTIVITIES December 2020. The questionnaire was adapted to better understand the pattern of school attendance and dropout and access to the Pfumvudza agricultural support program. Stakeholders are welcome to suggest themes to be investigated in future rounds. 7 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Annex Annex 1: Methodology for calculating the Food Insecurity Experience Scale (FIES) The FIES (Food Insecurity Experience Scale) is a metric of severity of food insecurity at the household or individual level. The fundamental assumption behind the FIES and similar food security scales is that the severity of the food insecurity condition of a household or an individual can be analyzed as a latent trait. The FIES Survey Module is composed of eight questions with simple dichotomous responses (“yes”/”no”). Respondents are asked whether anytime during a certain reference period they have worried about their ability to obtain enough food, their household has run out of food, or if they have been forced to compromise the quality or quantity of the food they ate due to limited availability of money or other resources to obtain food. The analysis of FIES data involves the following steps:  Parameter estimation: The severity of food insecurity associated with each survey item and each respondent was calculated.  Statistical validation: The assessment of whether, depending on the quality of the data collected, the measure is valid, i.e. is reliable enough for the intended policy and research uses.  Calculation of measures of food insecurity: o Individual probabilities: For each sampled individual or household (each case in the data), the probability of the individual/household experiencing food insecurity above a given level of severity is calculated, based on their responses to the FIES items. o Population prevalence estimates: The probabilities are used to estimate the prevalence of food insecurity at moderate and severe levels in the population. 8 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Annex 2: Table of indicators (Percent of households or individuals) Indicator Round 1 Round 2 Male Female Male Female National Urban Rural National Urban Rural head Head head head Knowledge Satisfied with the government's response N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 86 80 89 85 87 to the coronavirus Behavior Avoided groups of 10 or more people 91 92 91 90 93 67 68 66 66 69 Wears mask most or all the time in public 87 96 81 86 88 87 94 84 86 90 Washed hand most or all the time after 87 89 85 87 86 87 90 86 88 87 being in public Access to basic food necessities Tried to buy maize meal 64 68 62 65 64 59 62 58 59 60 Tried to buy cooking oil 76 71 79 78 72 70 65 72 72 67 Tried to buy chicken 67 77 62 69 63 56 65 51 55 57 Able to buy maize meal (of those who 64 72 59 70 52 69 83 61 73 62 tried to buy) Able to buy cooking oil (of those who 53 68 46 58 44 63 86 53 67 55 tried to buy) Able to buy chicken (of those who tried 24 42 11 26 18 33 56 18 37 25 to buy) Access to health Able to buy medicine (of those who 75 75 74 75 74 76 83 71 78 71 needed to buy medicine) Able to access medical treatment (of 79 77 81 77 83 86 83 87 88 81 those who needed medical treatment) Access to education (of those with a school-age child) Completed assignments from teachers 23 28 16 22 25 3 5 3 4 3 Listened to educational radio programs 10 5 17 11 8 14 12 15 16 10 Watched educational tv programs 4 5 4 5 2 4 13 1 5 3 Used mobile learning applications 26 40 9 25 28 9 26 2 8 12 9 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Indicator Round 1 Round 2 Male Female Male Female National Urban Rural National Urban Rural head Head head head Other 2 1 4 3 0 36 14 45 32 43 Completed assignment from parents 53 44 65 55 50 42 47 39 45 36 Completed assignment from tutors 13 18 6 14 10 7 18 2 8 6 Access to housing Moved since mid-March 3 6 2 4 3 Can afford next month's rent (of those N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 65 66 42 66 61 renting) Employment Currently working 51 61 45 54 43 52 64 46 56 45 Stopped working since pre-COVID (round 1)/ since the month preceding the 13 18 10 13 13 3 4 3 4 1 interview (round 2) Not currently working and did not work pre-Covid (round 1)/Not currently 36 21 45 32 44 45 32 51 40 54 working and did not work in the month preceding the interview (round 2) Operated a non-farm business (of those 26 41 17 26 25 29 43 20 29 28 who worked) Worked on household farm (of those 32 1 50 29 42 34 7 49 30 45 who worked) Worked for a wage (of those who 42 58 33 46 33 38 50 31 41 28 worked) Wage employment (of those who worked for a wage) Able to work as usual 85 81 90 89 74 88 86 90 86 93 Received full wage 64 60 73 67 61 92 92 92 89 100 Received partial wage 30 40 8 25 36 7 8 6 9 0 Received no wage 6 0 19 8 3 1 1 3 2 0 Weekly hours of work N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 44 38 49 44 43 Non-farm business (of those operating a non-farm business) 10 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Indicator Round 1 Round 2 Male Female Male Female National Urban Rural National Urban Rural head Head head head Household business open N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 84 81 88 83 85 Household business temporarily closed N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 16 18 12 17 15 Household business permanently closed N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 0 0 0 0 0 Revenue from business sales higher 6 8 2 5 7 9 13 1 2 22 Revenue from business sales the same 6 5 8 7 3 34 37 27 35 31 Revenue from business sales lower 60 65 52 66 49 55 48 68 60 45 No revenue from business sales 28 23 38 22 41 3 2 4 3 2 Agriculture Worked on the household farm 55 14 77 54 57 51 7 74 53 48 Could perform normal farm/harvest activities (of households that worked on 84 69 86 84 84 93 91 93 93 92 household farm) Able to sell farm products (of households 40 60 37 41 38 72 92 70 75 59 that had a product to sell) Income source ( of households deriving income in the last 12 months from this source) Non-farm family business 19 30 14 20 18 17 34 8 18 15 Wages 31 49 22 34 25 28 45 20 31 23 Remittances from abroad 16 28 9 11 25 11 21 7 8 18 Assistance from family within the country 19 20 18 14 28 16 15 16 12 24 Income from properties, investments, or 3 9 1 2 7 4 8 1 4 4 savings Pension 8 16 3 6 12 6 15 2 5 9 Assistance from the government 18 3 25 15 22 15 3 21 14 17 Assistance from NGOs/charitable 12 2 17 11 13 10 9 12 9 12 organizations Income source ( of households with income from this source reporting decreased or no income since the 11 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Indicator Round 1 Round 2 Male Female Male Female National Urban Rural National Urban Rural head Head head head previous survey (for round 2) or since the onset of Covid19 (for Round 2) Non-farm household business 87 90 84 86 89 64 60 74 67 58 Wages 44 41 48 44 45 31 32 31 33 27 Remittances from abroad 65 57 79 70 60 65 55 80 71 60 Assistance from family members in the 75 64 81 77 72 74 49 86 88 62 country Pension 28 27 30 14 42 9 5 26 9 10 Assistance from the government 54 50 54 57 49 84 93 83 83 86 Assistance from NGOs/charitable 61 49 62 59 65 86 47 88 88 83 organizations Income from properties, investments or 54 54 63 37 64 25 18 54 28 19 savings Concerns Coronavirus poses substantial or N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 92 91 93 92 93 moderate threat to household finances Shocks since the previous survey (for round 2) or since the onset of Covid19 (for Round 2) ( of households) Job Loss N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 6 11 3 6 5 Nonfarm business closure N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 4 7 3 3 5 Theft/looting of cash and other property N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 3 2 3 2 4 Disruption of farming, livestock, fishing N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 4 0 5 3 5 activities Increase in price of farming/business N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 24 8 33 25 23 inputs Fall in the price of farming/business N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 7 3 8 7 6 output Lack of availability of farming/business N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 8 5 9 8 7 inputs Reduction of farming/business output N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 7 5 8 7 7 12 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe Indicator Round 1 Round 2 Male Female Male Female National Urban Rural National Urban Rural head Head head head Increase in price of major food items N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 66 51 75 67 67 consumed Illness, injury, or death of an income- N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 6 6 6 6 7 earning member of the household Other N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 0 0 1 0 0 Natural disasters N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 1 0 1 1 1 War and conflict N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a 0 0 0 0 0 Food security ( of households) Severely insecure 27 31 18 Na Na N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a Severely or moderately insecure 72 75 65 Na Na N/a N/a N/a N/a N/a Safety nets ( of households) Received COVID-19 cash transfers 2 3 1 2 1 4 10 1 3 6 Received other cash transfers 1 1 1 1 1 0 1 0 0 0 Received food assistance 15 1 23 14 18 2 1 3 2 3 Participated in a public works program 0 0 1 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 Received other in-kind transfers 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/a: Indicator not available in the round. 13 REPORT NO. 2 Monitoring COVID-19 impacts 29 / December / 2020 on households in Zimbabwe For more information please contact: Mr. Grown Chirongwe Zimbabwe National Statistics Agency 20th Floor Kaguvi Building, Corner Fourth Street and Central Avenue Tel: (263-04) 706681/8 or (263-04) 703971/7 Fax: (263-04) 762494 E-mail: info@zimstat.co.zw or gchirongwe@zimstat.co.zw Website: www.zimstat.co.zw Ms. Cheryl Khuphe External Affairs Officer World Bank Harare Block 3, Arundel Business Park 107 Norfolk Road, Mount Pleasant Harare, Zimbabwe (+263-4) 369-130/1 Email: ckhuphe@worldbank.org Website: https://www.worldbank.org/en/country/zimbabwe 14