Myanmar Monitoring Platform – Household Surveys Results from the February 2022 high-frequency phone survey of households • Results from Round 1 (May 2020) Round 7 Key findings Round 7 Following 1 February 2021, households increasingly faced reduced incomes and heightened food insecurity. Employment & income losses Food security Although fewer households reported work Food insecurity worsened between stoppages in February 2022 than in January 2021, January 2021 and February 2022 with more households said that earnings were lower. households experiencing multiple Earnings from all sectors were adversely affected. challenges. Poor and women-headed households suffered more. Closing the Development Gap Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Following 1 February 2021, public social assistance to households collapsed. Coping mechanisms & Health social assistance Households adopted negative food-based Households did not report any concerns coping strategies and other strategies that relating to access to health services. could potentially increase indebtedness (new loans, selling assets). But there are growing mental health concerns due to increased stressors. Less than 5% of households received public social assistance after 1 February 2021 compared with 36% before 1 February 2021. Closing the Development Gap Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Employment & income Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 About 1 in 2 households’ main workers reported lower labor incomes after 1 February 2021 than in January 2021. Share of households' main workers who between survey rounds... Nearly one-fifth of workers engaged in 70% agriculture were not working in February 59% 2022 but also one-fifth of those engaged in Percent of households' main earners 60% 60% 50% 51% 50% industry. 45% 40% 33% 37% 34% 30% Women heads (24%) were less likely to 30% 24% 31% 20% 19% be working than men heads (17%), and 18% 20% difference is statistically significant. 10% Women heads (60%) were more likely 0% May 2020 June 2020 Aug 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2022 to have less income than men heads Month of data collection (50%), and difference is statistically Stopped working Had less income significant. Note: For May 2020 – January 2021, share of households’ main workers is measured against a pre-March baseline. For February 2022, share of households’ main workers is measured against a pre-February 2021 baseline. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Labor incomes across all sectors were adversely affected after 1 February 2022, with pronounced impacts on retail and tourism. Share of households’ main workers with lower incomes between Due to compounded effects of COVID-19 survey rounds, by month and type of activities and events since 1 February 2021, 90 workers in the tourism and retail sector Percent of households' main workers 80 were most likely to suffer reduced 70 60 incomes between survey rounds: about 50 61% of households’ tourism workers 40 experienced reduced income since 1 30 February 2021 followed by 57% of 20 workers in retail and 54% of workers in 10 0 agriculture. Agriculture Secondary Retail & Personal Tourism & Other "Tertiary" services transport Type of activities Collapse of the Myanmar’s economy after the military takeover on 1 February 2021 May 2020 June 2020 Aug 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2022 explains the negative income shocks Note: Share of households’ main workers with less income is measured on the ones working pre-March who are working in the last seven days and are saying that they have less income compared to previous across all sectors. round/month. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Most household non-farm businesses were still operational, but generated lower earnings. Percent of non-farm business households still in operation between rounds and reporting lower/no earnings 100 86 87 89 79 9 in 10 non-farm businesses were still 80 operational in February 2022. 60 75 61 40 48 39 However, the share of households that 20 stopped operating their business in February 0 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2022 2022 was slightly higher than in January Business still operating Lower/no earnings 2021 (9% vs. 6%) due to compounded effects of COVID-19, seasonality and other events. Substantially more household businesses reported lower or no earnings after the military coup in 2021 than did before the coup; In February 2022, 61% of households operating a business reported lower or no earnings compared to 39% in January 2021. About 67% of households owning a retail business had lower earnings in February 2022 than in January 2021. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Most household farms remained operational; however, 39% of those not able to farm as usual, this is due to challenges acquiring inputs. Cost of farm inputs increased for farming In February 2022, most households operated households their farms as usual. However, about 23% said 90 82 they were unable to farm as normal or 80 stopped working on their farm in February 70 2022. This reflects challenges acquiring farm 60 inputs. About 39% of those unable to farm as 50 normal reported being unable to acquire or 38 40 transport inputs. 32 33 30 About 82% of farming households 20 reported that inputs such as seeds, 10 fertilizer, pesticide, and fuel were more 0 expensive in February 2022 than pre-coup. Aug 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Feb 2022 Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Inputs for crop production and fuel prices have risen, hampering agricultural production. Cost of farm inputs for crop production increased for farming About 82% of farming households households reported that 100% 89% inputs such as seeds, fertilizer, pesticide, and fuel were more 80% 71% expensive in February 2022 59% 59% 60% than pre-coup. 38% 40% 29% 20% 15% 13% 10% 4% 5% 2% 0% Nov 2020 Feb 2022 Seed Fertilizer Pesticide, fungicide, weedicide Fuel Livestock supplies (e.g. fencing) Livestock medications and veterinary services Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Percent of households whose income from changed (conditional on Since 1 February 2021, 1 receiving income from the source in past 12 months) in 2 Myanmar households Household income 13 36 51 faced reduced household Family farming Non-farm family business 5 11 34 38 60 51 incomes. Wage employment 15 43 43 Domestic remittances 14 29 57 International remittances 26 37 37 Households faced reductions to Assistance from family / non-family 2 86 12 both labor and non-labor income. Properties, investments or savings 65 14 22 Pensions 86 14 Assistance from public sector 17 63 21 Assistance from NGOs 29 21 50 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Increased Stayed the same Decreased Note: The proportions in the figure are conditional on households receiving incomes from the source in the past 12 months. Percent of households whose livelihoods are drawn from: Family farming (38.3%), Non-farm family business (20.8%), Wage employment (51.7%), Domestic remittances (2.2%), International remittances (2.0%), Assistance from family / non-family (1.4%), Properties, investments or savings (1.2%), Pensions (3.0%), Assistance from the public sector (0.03%), Assistance from NGOs (0.04%). Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Reasons household income has fallen since 1 February 2021 (conditional on Since 1 February 2021, 35% reporting declined income) many households reporting 30% 31% declined income are 27% 25% 25% 25% experiencing declines because of higher prices, 20% 17% 16% combined with 15% employment losses and/or 10% reduced work hours. 5% 5% 3% 1% 0% Growth in Lack of Revenue Revenue Lost job Reduced Cost of Other Received household jobs/work from from salary/wages caring for ill less income is household household person in international slower than farm business the remittances growth in decreased decreased household commodity price Note: The reported estimates are conditional on households reporting declined income since 1 February 2021. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Since 1 February 2021, most Percent of households that experienced a shock since 1 Feb 2021, Myanmar households by number of shocks 30 experienced numerous shocks, 26 with food security-related and 25 economic shocks being the 22 most prominent. 20 17 19 15 15 Only 2% of households did not 10 experience any negative shocks since 1 February 2021. 5 Whereas 76% faced at least two 2 adverse shocks and 19% faced at least 0 five shocks. 0 1 2 3 4 5+ Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Since 1 February 2021, most Percent of households affected by a shock since 1 February 2021 Myanmar households Food price shock 95% experienced numerous shocks, with food security-related and Livelihood shock 65% economic shocks being the Health shock 37% most prominent. Natural disaster 21% Security threat 9% 95% of households faced increases in Other 0% prices of major food prices. 65% of households faced at least one 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% livelihood shock. Note: Food price shock includes (i) increase in price of major food items. Livelihood shocks includes (i) job loss, (ii) closure of a non-farm business, (iii) disruption of farming activities, (iv) increased price of farming/business inputs, (v) reduced price of farming/business output, (vi) lack of availability of business/farming inputs, and (vii) reduction of farming/business output. Natural disasters includes (i) flooding, and (ii) drought. Security threats includes (i) theft/looting of cash and other property, and (ii) conflict or community violence. Health shocks include (i) Illness, injury, or death of income earning household member. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Since 1 February 2021, most Percent of households affected by a shock since 1 Feb 2021 Myanmar households Increase in price of major food items 95% experienced numerous shocks, Illness, injury, or death of income earner 37% with food security-related and Increase in price of farming/business inputs 37% economic shocks being the Job loss 35% Fall in price of farming/business output 19% most prominent. Lack of availability of farming/business inputs 18% Reduction of farming/business output 17% Drought 16% 95% of households faced increases in Flooding 7% prices of major food prices. Conflict/Community Violence 5% 65% of households faced at least one Theft/Looting 4% livelihood shock. Non-farm business closure 4% Disruption of farming activities 2% Other 0% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Food insecurity Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Food insecurity worsened in February 2022 compared to January 2021. Percent of households that experienced the following issues in fulfilling In February 2022, food requirements households typically 60% 54% worried about food and 50% 46% reduced the quality and/or 45% 44% Percent of households variety of food consumed. 40% 37% Meals were not always 30% nutritious as 24% of households cut down 20% healthy foods or ate fewer 10% types of food. Very few 0% households went a whole Aug 2020 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2022 day without eating. At the Food insecurity issues same time, only 5% of Worried about food Cut down healthy food Eat fewer food types households skipped a meal. Skipped meals Eat less Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Food insecurity was elevated most for the bottom 40 percent. Percent of households facing issues fulfilling food requirements by The bottom 40 percent quintile 70% were more likely to experience food insecurity 60% than the top 60 percent. 50% The bottom 20 percent 40% were twice as likely to face 30% an issue fulfilling food requirement than the top 20% 20 percent. 10% 0% Worried about food Cut down healthy Eat fewer types of Eat less Run out of food food food Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q5 Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Coping mechanisms & Social assistance Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 More households reduced Percent of households by coping mechanisms consumption, credited Reduced non-food consumption 43% 49% purchases, and sold assets, Reduced food consumption 34% 44% Relied on savings 42% possibly due to depleting Borrowed from friends/family 33% 30% 33% savings. Coping mechanisms Credited purchases 19% 23% Sale of assets 16% 21% These coping mechanisms could have Delayed payment 20% 26% long-term negative impacts on Done nothing 7% 17% households’ capacity to fulfil their basic Loan financial institution 15% 22% needs, strengthen their human capital, Loan from moneylender 18% 12% and ensure households’ financial Additional activities 12% 9% solvency. 8% Sold harvest in advance 8% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Jan 2021 Feb 2022 Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 The bottom 40 were more Percent of households by coping mechanism and quintile 60% likely to cut consumption and resort to potentially scarring 50% coping mechanisms 40% compared with the top 60. 30% 20% 10% Potentially scarring coping mechanisms include increasing household debt— 0% crediting purchases, delaying payment obligations, and taking out loans—and selling assets. These coping mechanisms could have long-term negative impacts on households’ capacity to fulfil basic needs, Bottom 40 Top 60 strengthen human capital, and ensure financial solvency. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng Round 2 Round 7 There was a sharp reduction in cash and food assistance from the public sector. Percent of households receiving social assistance from Percent of households receiving social assistance from the public the public sector sector by type 40% 40% 36% Before 1 Feb 2021 Since 1 Feb 2021 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 4% 0% 0% Before 1 Feb 2021 Since 1 Feb 2021 Food Cash Other cash Utilities Agricultural MSME loan Government assistance transfers transfers subsidies loan staff loan from GAD Note: Percent of households receiving social assistance from the public sector before 1 February 2021 was drawn from Round 7 based on recall. Estimates may differ if other rounds are used. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Since 1 February Percent of households self-perceiving a change in socio- economic status compared to other households in the village 2021, there is a 100 growing self- perception of 80 56 impoverishment. 60 61 40 23 17 20 16 20 0 Before Today 1 Feb 2021 Poorest Poor Average Rich Richest Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Mental Health Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 There is increased mental stress since 1 February 2021, with elevated levels of anxiety and growing sense of hopelessness. Percent of households that experienced mental stress 70% 60% 60% 56% 50% 41% 43% 40% 32% 32% 28% 29% 30% 26% 22% 18% 20% 15% 15% 13% 10% 0% Any mental health Feeling sad Feeling lonely Feeling hopeless Feeling nervous, tense Unable to sleep well Difficulty concentrating condition or anxious Nov 2020 Feb 2022 Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng Round 2 There are growing concerns about finances and having enough to eat. Percent of households worried about having enough to eat and finances 70% 63% 62% 59% 59% 60% 56% 52% 54% 52% 50% 50% 50% 44% 45% 42% 43% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% May 2020 June 2020 Jul-20 Oct 2020 Nov 2020 Jan 2021 Feb 2022 Worried about having enough to eat next week Worried about household finances in the next month Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng Round 2 Thank you More information is available on Myanmar Monitoring Platform – Household Surveys And upon request myanmar@worldbank.org Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 ANNEXES Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Survey design and sampling Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Design Method: Phone surveys were conducted monthly from May 2020 to February 2022 through a 30–40-minute phone interview of 1,500 households. The World Bank implemented Rounds 1-7, with technical and implementation support from the Central Statistical Organization for Rounds 1-6. Tracked indicators: Labor market and livelihood strategies, food insecurity and poverty, and households’ coping strategies are recorded in all survey rounds. Questions relating to behavioral changes, access to health and education, and migratory trends will be asked in subsequent survey rounds as the situation unfolds. Respondents were sampled from an existing and consenting pool of respondents sourced from a private firm. Respondents were adult women and men, irrespective of their household responsibility status. Sample was weighted to assure representativeness of estimates at the Union level. Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Similarity of sample distribution of MLCS 2017 and HFPS 2020… Households by State/Region Households by urban/rural 18 16 Percent of households 14 12 HFPS (weighted) 10 8 MLCS (weighted) 6 4 2 0 HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (unweighted) States/Regions 0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0 80.0 90.0 100.0 Percent of households MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted) Rural Urban MLCS: Myanmar living conditions survey (2017)) MLCS: Myanmar living conditions survey (2017)) HFPS: High-frequency phone survey (2020) HFPS: High-frequency phone survey (2020) Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 … strengthening confidence of representativeness of the HFPS Household size Dependency ratio 70.0 30.0 60.0 25.0 Percent of households Percent of households 50.0 20.0 40.0 15.0 30.0 10.0 20.0 10.0 5.0 0.0 0.0 4 5 6-25 [0 - 0.1] [0.1 - 0.3] [0.3 - 0.4] [0.4 - 0.5] [0.5 - 1] Categories of household size Categories of dependency ratio MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (unweighted) HFPS (unweighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted) MLCS (weighted) HFPS (weighted) MLCS: Myanmar living conditions survey (2017)) Dependency ratio: share of children (0-14 years old) and elderly (65 years old and HFPS: High-frequency phone survey (2020) over) over adults Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 Characteristics of surveyed population Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7 The HFPS drew from a representative and diverse sample of respondents and households Gender Age groups Household composition 21 3.5 29 15-34 46 Women 35-54 54 Men 3 55 over 2.5 51 Number of members 2 Gender of household head Main language spoken 1.5 17 4 5 3 1 Myanmar Women Rakhine Men 0.5 Kayin Other 83 0 87 Children 0-2 Children 3-4 Children 5-14 Members 15-64 Members 65 over Round 1 Myanmar Myanmar COVID-19 Covid–19 Monitoring Monitorıng 2 Round 7