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Herrera Shielding Communities from Natural Hazards amid Compounded Crises World Bank White Paper for EWS Implementation in FCV Settings, 2024 CONTENTS Acknowledgments ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 6 Abbreviations and Acronyms ............................................................................................................................................................................................................. 7 Executive Summary ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Key findings................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 2 Way forward.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 2 1 Introduction.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 3 1.1 Contextualizing the importance of early warning systems for countries and communities affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. .............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................. 3 Photo 1.1. Schoolchildren going to a multipurpose cyclone shelter in Barisal, Bangladesh ...................................................................... 4 1.2 Objectives of this paper............................................................................................................................................................................................................... 4 1.3 Methodology ....................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 5 1.4 Limitations............................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 7 Endnotes........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 7 2 The Case for EWS in FCV Settings: Challenges, Adjustments, and an Operational Paradigm Shift............................ 8 2.1 Establishing EWS: A review of the traditional framework.................................................................................................................................. 8 2.1.1 The four pillars of EWS........................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 2.1. Four pillars of end-to-end, people-centered early warning systems................................................................................................. 9 Figure 2.2. The 10 elements of the classic early warning system value chain .. .................................................................................................. 11 2.1.2 Key actors of the EWS value chain (national and local levels). . .................................................................................................................................. 12 2.1.3 Cross-cutting challenges of EWS implementation in FCV settings ........................................................................................................................ 13 Table 2.1. Cross-cutting challenges of hydromet and EWS implementation in FCV settings.................................................................... 14 Endnotes........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 16 2.1.3 Rethinking the traditional methodology: Tailoring solutions and prioritizing the end user.................................................................. 16 3. In Practice: Alternative Options for Establishing EWS in FCV Settings............................................................................................. 18 3.1 Cross-cutting topic: Governance and institutional arrangements........................................................................................................... 18 Box 3.1. Navigating Afghanistan’s evolutions .............................................................................................................................. 20 Box 3.2. Integrating non-state actors in EWS: Lessons from Nigeria.......................................................................................... 21 Box 3.3. Successes and challenges in Haiti................................................................................................................................... 22 Box 3.4. Engaging on hydromet and EWS in a war zone: Lessons learned from the Republic of Yemen................................. 23 3.2 Pillar I: Disaster risk knowledge ........................................................................................................................................................................................ 24 Box 3.5. Flood early warning in South Sudan: Understanding risks and capacity building..................................................... 25 Box 3.6. The application of AI-based technologies for understanding food crises in the Sahel.............................................. 27 Box 3.7. 3D printing technology in Afghanistan............................................................................................................................ 30 Box 3.8. Service provision and capacity building: The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System................. 30 Box 3.9. Early detection and forecasting of Cyclone Tej in the Republic of Yemen: A case of regional cooperation.............. 31 3.4 Pillar III: Warning dissemination and communication....................................................................................................................................... 32 Box 3.10. Lessons learned on inclusive and diversified early warning communication from Mozambique........................... 33 Photo B3.10.1. An ICS mobile brigade conducts a community mobilization exercise at a fishing village. . ....................................... 33 Box 3.11. Warning dissemination by religious leaders in Afghanistan and Bangladesh........................................................... 34 Box 3.12. The need to overcome the social trust challenge in the Republic of Yemen............................................................. 35 3.5 Pillar IV: Preparedness and response capabilities................................................................................................................................................ 36 Box 3.13. Haiti’s hurricane preparedness program..................................................................................................................... 37 Photo B3.13.1. Music video developed to increase risk awareness.. ......................................................................................................................... 37 Box 3.14. Traditional leaders’ engagement for COVID-19 response in Nigeria.......................................................................... 38 Box 3.15. Integrating conflict sensitivity into feasibility studies for disaster preparedness projects: Lessons from Mali.... 38 Endnotes........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 38 4. Conclusion and Way Forward.................................................................................................................................................................................................... 39 4.1 Summary of key findings ........................................................................................................................................................................................................ 39 4.2 Ways forward.................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 40 Appendixes........................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................ 42 Appendix A: List of Consultations............................................................................................................................................................................................... 43 Appendix B: Resources on Risk Data ....................................................................................................................................................................................... 44 Appendix C: Case Studies.................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 45 1. Leveraging existing institutional frameworks in countries affected by conflict and violence: The case of Niger.... 45 2. Supporting Bangladesh’s institutional resilience amid the Rohingya crisis........................................................................................ 46 3. A regional approach to observation, monitoring, and forecasting in West Africa (CREWS project).................................... 46 4. Integrating disaster preparedness into sectors: Lessons from Honduras.............................................................................................. 47 Bibliography ................................................................................................................................................................................................................................................... 49 Acknowledgments This paper was prepared by the Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) through a collaboration between GFDRR teams working on the Disaster-Fragility, Conflict and Violence (FCV) Nexus thematic area and the Hydromet Services and Early Warning Systems thematic area. This paper was prepared by a team comprising of Lara Loussert (Consultant), Moussa Sidibe (Disaster Risk Management Specialist), Karima Ben Bih (Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist) and Esesua Olubukola Ikpefan (Consultant). The authors would like to extend special thanks to the following World Bank colleagues for reviewing the paper and for their valuable contributions: Bianca Adam, Anna-Maria Bogdanova, Mary Boyer, Naraya Carrasco, Nagaraja Rao Harshadeep, Katie Peters, Alice Soares Dos Santos, Ko Takeuchi, and Vladimir Tsirkunov. In addition, the authors would like to acknowledge the valuable insights shared by interviewees from the United Nations (UN), the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the Agence Française de Développement (AFD), and the World Bank. The team would like to express its gratitude to Niels Holm-Nielsen, GFDRR Practice Manager, for his strategic guidance in the preparation of this paper. Abbreviations and Acronyms 3D three-dimensional 3D-PAWS 3D-Printed Automatic Weather Station AFD Agence Française de Développement AI artificial intelligence AMD Afghanistan Meteorological Department ANDMA Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority AWS Automatic Weather Stations BFFWC Bangladesh Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre CAFEWS Central Asia Flood Early Warning System CJTF Civilian Joint Task Force CONOPS concept of operations CRED Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters CREWS Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems DART Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis DGPC Direction Générale de la Protection Civile (Haiti) DPO Development Policy Operation DRM disaster risk management DRR disaster risk reduction ECMWF European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECMWF-ENS European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts ECOWAS Economic Community of West African States ESA European Space Agency EW4All Early Warnings for All EWER Early Warning and Early Response EWS early warning systems FAO Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FCS fragile and conflict-affected situations FCV fragility, conflict, and violence GBON Global Basic Observation Network GBV gender-based violence GDA Global Development Assistance GDPFS Global Data-processing and Forecasting System GFDRR Global Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery GFS Global Forecast System GIS geographic information system GloFAS Global Flood Awareness System GRMI Global Risk Mapping Initiative hydromet hydrometeorology ICT information and communication technology ICRs Implementation Completion Reports IDPs internally displaced persons IFRC International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies IMD India Meteorological Department IRI International Research Institute ITU International Telecommunication Union LDCs least developed countries MoU memorandum of understanding NCEP National Centers for Environmental Prediction ND-Gain Index Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index NDMAs national disaster management authorities NGOs nongovernmental organizations NMHS National Meteorological and Hydrological Services NSAs non-state actors NWP numerical weather prediction OCHA United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs ODA official development assistance PPP public-private partnership RIMES Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System for Africa and Asia SIDS small island developing states SOFF Systematic Observation Financing Facility SOPs standard operating procedures TA technical assistance TC Tropical Cyclone TCO total cost of ownership ToR terms of reference UHM Unité Hydrométéorologique d’Haïti UN United Nations UNDRR United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction UNIFIL United Nations Interim Forces in Lebanon VAC violence against children WFP World Food Programme WMO World Meteorological Organization WMO/ESCAP WMO panel on Tropical Cyclones – Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea All dollar amounts are US dollars unless otherwise indicated. Executive Summary Purpose This study, led by the Global Facility for Disaster strong and uninterrupted commitment of the client Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR) teams working countries. In FCV contexts this is rarely possible, hence on the Disaster-FCV Nexus thematic area and the the critical need for practical, lower-cost, sometimes Hydromet Services and Early Warning Systems unique and faster solutions to protect communities thematic area, aims to contribute to GFDRR’s from natural hazards. overarching objective: to help low- and middle- In response to the escalating recognition of the income countries understand and reduce their interconnectedness between disasters and fragility, vulnerability to natural hazards and climate change. GFDRR launched the Disaster-FCV Nexus thematic More specifically, the purpose of this report is area in 2018. This initiative squarely addresses to provide valuable insights into the nuances of the mounting number of disaster-prone settings early warning systems (EWS) implementation concurrently afflicted by fragility, marking a crucial within fragile, conflict, and violence (FCV)-affected step towards bolstering resilience in vulnerable contexts against growing natural hazards, offering regions. From fiscal year 2012 to 2022, GFDRR facilitated practical recommendations and identifying entry 320 grants across 50 FCV countries, amounting to a points for enhancing stakeholder coordination, substantial $153 million (GFDRR 2023a). These efforts optimizing resource allocation, and fostering effectively mobilized and informed the impressive community resilience. It is aimed at development sum of $6 billion in development financing from the practitioners, especially World Bank staff, who work World Bank and its partners. The current GFDRR with communities and governments to enhance the Strategy 2021–2025 actively integrates the Disaster- scaling-up of EWS coverage to populations living in FCV Nexus as a pivotal cross-cutting theme.1 It seeks contexts affected by FCV. to harness greater development finance for disaster Supporting countries in modernizing their national risk management (DRM) in FCV settings and to fortify weather and climate services and strengthening EWS DRM practices within these complex environments. has been in the heart of the GFDRR Hydromet Services This paper aligns with these overarching objectives by and Early Warning Systems thematic area. Since shedding light on the intricate challenges associated its creation in 2011, the GFDRR Hydromet and EWS with EWS implementation in FCV settings and offering program has been a driving force in sharing knowledge targeted insights and recommendations to address and expertise within World Bank teams and partners these pressing issues. on strengthening weather, climate, hydrological, and This report is centered on EWS for hydromet EWS in developing countries. The program has seen hazards, which are of hydrological, meteorological, significant growth, with the World Bank’s hydromet or oceanographic origin. They encompass a wide portfolio more than tripling, reaching close to $1 range of frequent hazards such as tropical cyclones, billion (both through grants and lending operations). floods, drought, heatwaves, and coastal storm surges. Supporting operational teams and working closely Despite this primary focus, the lessons learned and with countries, GFDRR helps enhance their ability to good practices are transferable to other hazard types, understand, predict, and communicate hydrological including biological, technological, environmental, and meteorological hazards through support for and geological threats. It also brings to light the technological development, better data analysis for particular challenges faced in FCV settings, where informed decision-making, and capacity building. cascading risks can have amplified effects. In such However, the challenge has always been the same: contexts, natural hazards can precipitate or intensify EWS implementation is a lengthy process that takes other hazards and societal crises, 2 making the need several years and multiple iterations, requiring the 1 for a multi-hazard EWS approach even account for the complex and multifaceted of warnings. The study highlights the more critical. This is vital for building nature of each unique context. importance of integrating data with resilience and ensuring a comprehensive effective messaging strategies to Furthermore, the paper emphasizes the DRM strategy that addresses the complex prompt early action from end users, importance of community engagement, dynamics present in FCV environments. thereby ensuring the efficacy of the early calling for the active inclusion of local warning to protect vulnerable groups. communities, including displaced Key findings populations, in the development and Lastly, while acknowledging the pivotal implementation processes. Not only contributions of development and The paper delves into the operational are their perspectives and knowledge humanitarian actors at different stages of complexities of implementing EWS in invaluable in crafting effective and the EWS value chain, the study stresses the FCV settings, highlighting significant culturally sensitive warning systems, need for improved coordination among challenges that affect the sustainability but the engagement of local populations international players. Clear delineation of development investments, such as may a help ensure the sustainability of of roles and responsibilities is essential fragmented governance structures, investments, in particular in contexts to ensure a coherent and effective system limited financial resources, security of high political instability or mistrust that safeguards vulnerable communities concerns, and complex socio-political between citizens and the state. and assets in FCV settings. dynamics. Despite these obstacles, the study reveals that FCV settings often The study also advocates for greater have elements of EWS in place, providing collaboration among diverse stakeholders— Way forward a foundation for further development ranging from local communities, Moving forward, scaling up EWS coverage if approached in a considered and FCV- governmental agencies, international in FCV contexts will require not only sensitive manner. organizations, and donors—to ensure additional financing and attention from the the effectiveness and sustainability of Key findings underscore the critical development community, but also a set of EWS initiatives in FCV settings. The paper imperative to prioritize the end user in the adapted approaches and tools to support argues for a dual strategy that balances design of EWS, ensuring that interventions operational teams working across the long-term policy dialogue and capacity- are not only technically robust but entire value chain of EWS in synergy with building to strengthen hydromet systems, also deeply aligned with the realities the multitude of key stakeholders. Likewise, preparedness, and response mechanisms, and challenges faced by vulnerable there is a pressing need for enhanced with immediate, actionable steps and to populations in FCV contexts. This holistic knowledge on the cost-benefit and welfare deliver early warnings to communities at risk. approach must first and foremost be development gains of EWS implementation rooted in a nuanced understanding of local Additionally, the research identifies in FCV settings to inform decision-making dynamics and needs through integrating a critical operational gap between and strategy development in these FCV considerations into the design of efforts on data collection and hazard challenging environments. EWS, enabling tailored approaches that forecasting, and the dissemination As a follow-up to this study, a decision- tree aimed at informing operational decision-making along the EWS value chain will be developed in the World Bank during fiscal year 2025. This tool, primarily targeted at World Bank task teams, will build upon the insights gleaned from the identification of cross-cutting challenges and the exploration of solutions through case studies, providing a structured framework to navigate the complexities of EWS implementation in settings affected by conflict and fragility. Endnotes 1 The GFDRR Strategy is available at http://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/955811620194170587/GFDRR-Strategy-2021-2025-Scaling-Up-and- Mainstreaming-Resilience-in-a-World-of-Compound-Risks. 2 Hydromet conditions may influence, worsen, or even trigger other hazards such as landslides, wildfires, locust plagues, epidemics, and the transport and dispersal of toxic substances and volcanic eruption material. 2 1Introduction 1.1 Contextualizing the importance of early warning systems for countries and communities affected by fragility, conflict, and violence. Fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV) In light of these challenges, early warning The importance of EWS as a means poses a critical developmental challenge, systems (EWS) emerge as crucial tools to support resilience in the face undermining efforts to alleviate extreme for building resilience and mitigating of increasing climate and disaster poverty across both low- and middle- the impacts of climate-related hazards risks lies not only in their capacity income countries. By 2030, up to two- and disasters. By providing timely alerts to save lives and minimize damages thirds of the global extreme poor will be and actionable information, EWS offer a but also in their potential to address living in countries affected by FCV (World lifeline to communities, enabling them underlying drivers of vulnerability, Bank 2023b). There is a substantial overlap to prepare, respond, and recover in the which can have a compounding between countries on the World Bank’s face of natural hazards such as floods, effect on fragility. In FCV countries, Fragile and Conflict-affected Situation droughts, cyclones, and landslides. where access to basic services and (FCS) List1 and those most at risk of Moreover, the effective implementation of institutional capacities may be environmental, climate, and disaster risks: EWS can help prevent potential tensions strained by conflict and political, of the top 20 countries most vulnerable and conflicts that may arise from poorly economic, and social instability, the to climate change, according to the Notre planned responses to disasters. By presence of effective EWS can improve Dame Global Adaptation Initiative (ND- fostering trust in local authorities and basic service continuity, foster social GAIN) index;2 14 are on the World Bank enhancing community resilience, EWS cohesion, and bolster community FCS list for fiscal year 2024. The number of can contribute to maintaining peace and resilience (Patel et al. 2017; see also countries experiencing both conflict and stability in vulnerable regions (Arias et Demir and Kim 2022; Trohanis et al. disaster in the same year has increased al. 2016). While entirely eliminating all 2023). In Bangladesh, for example, from 18 percent (1949–58) to 81 percent consequences of hazards on individuals, the government has not only saved in the period 2009–18, and evidence economies, and the environment may not lives by providing early warning to shows that deaths related to disasters are be feasible, significant reductions can be remote and vulnerable communities between 16 percent to 34 percent higher in achieved, including their compounded and supported coastal communities armed-conflict contexts than in nonviolent impacts on vulnerability which in turn to safeguard their livelihoods; it has ones (Caso, Hilhorst, and Mena 2023). In affects drivers of conflict and fragility also rehabilitated and built new the complex landscape of FCV countries, (Šakić Trogrlić et al. 2022). It is estimated multipurpose cyclone shelters, which, climate change and disaster risks are that community access to EWS could result in the cyclone off-season, serve as exacerbating existing vulnerabilities in a staggering $35 billion reduction in primary schools providing over 1,600 and amplifying the fragility of already asset and well-being losses annually at the new and improved classrooms for precarious environments. Conversely, global level, alongside a notable decrease more than 150,000 primary school FCV conditions such as institutional in mortality rates (Hallegatte et al. 2016). children (Photo 1.1) (Urrutia Duarte fragility, political instability, and armed This estimation remains conservative; the and Kazi 2015–2024; World Bank 2022). violence can undermine governments’ true benefits of global EWS coverage are and societies’ capacity to prepare for likely to be even higher. and respond to climate and disaster risks (Peters 2019; Siddiqi and Peters 2019). 3 Between 2010 and 2019 4.1% of the total official development assistance (ODA) funding allocated for disaster risk management (DRM) was directed toward disaster prevention and preparedness Photo 1.1. Schoolchildren going to a multipurpose cyclone shelter in Barisal, Bangladesh Source: World Bank 2022; Photo courtesy Tapash Paul/World Bank. Despite these compelling benefits, only half of all countries range of FCV settings. Drawing from the extensive experiences and worldwide were protected by multi-hazard EWS as of 2023 (Centre lessons learned from the World Bank and other development and of Excellence for Disaster and Climate Resilience 2023). This humanitarian agencies, the paper endeavors to provide insights number drops even lower for developing nations, with fewer than into successful strategies, methodologies, and interventions that half of the least developed countries and only one-third of small have proven effective in enhancing disaster preparedness and island developing states having access to such systems (Centre response capacities within FCV contexts. of Excellence for Disaster and Climate Resilience 2023). Moreover, Furthermore, the paper seeks to contribute to the advancement between 2010 and 2019, a mere 4.1 percent of the total official of scalable solutions for EWS implementation in FCV settings. development assistance (ODA) funding allocated for disaster risk By identifying entry points and innovative approaches, the management (DRM) was directed toward disaster prevention and paper aims to offer actionable steps and considerations tailored preparedness, with the majority being allocated for emergency specifically to the unique challenges posed by FCV environments, response efforts (UNDR and WMO 2022). This disparity stems from while emphasizing a user-centric approach that prioritizes the various factors, including insufficient financial resources at the immediate needs and realities on the ground. To this end, the national and subnational levels, gaps in hazard and vulnerability paper seeks to empower development practitioners engaged data, and government focus on post-disaster response over longer- in EWS implementation in FCV settings with a set of practical term risk reduction measures (Peters and Budimir 2016). FCV solutions and strategies. countries face an even greater challenge, as ongoing conflicts and political instability often overshadow efforts to reduce disaster risks Finally, this paper aims to stimulate reflection and dialogue (Peters 2017). In these circumstances, immediate security concerns on the operational gaps that need to be addressed to scale up often take precedence over de-prioritized long-term resilience- EWS implementation in FCV settings. By highlighting the critical building efforts (Peters 2017). elements necessary to achieve comprehensive EWS coverage and support the ambitious UN target of achieving full EWS coverage by Recognizing the urgent need to do more, in November 2022, the 2027, this paper aims to catalyze action and investment in priority United Nations (UN) launched the Early Warnings for All (EW4All) areas. initiative (Mohammed 2022), which set the ambitious target of covering every person on Earth by EWS against increasingly The paper’s primary focus is on EWS for hydromet-related extreme weather and climate change by the end of 2027. The hazards, which include extreme weather events such as storms, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), the floods, droughts, and heatwaves. These are among the most World Meteorological Organization (WMO), the International common and impactful natural disasters globally, and they Telecommunication Union (ITU), and the International Federation are estimated to be responsible for 90 percent of total disaster of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) are leading this losses worldwide (World Bank 2017). While hydromet hazards are global effort in coordination and collaboration with development the main emphasis, the report recognizes the importance of a partners, including the World Bank. Although significant attention comprehensive approach to EWS that can be adapted to various and resources have been devoted to implementing the initiative, types of natural and artificial hazards. Therefore, the paper also there is a pressing need for a more targeted approach to address includes examples and considerations for other types of hazards, the challenges faced by FCV countries in effectively implementing such as health emergencies exemplified by the COVID-19 pandemic EWS. and environmental threats such as wildfires. These examples demonstrate the versatility and applicability of the recommended 1.2 Objectives of this paper EWS practices beyond hydromet hazards, ensuring that the insights provided can support preparedness and response efforts for a This paper’s primary objective is to showcase a comprehensive set diverse array of potential risks. of good practices concerning the implementation of EWS across a 4 1.3 Methodology In order to comprehensively pinpoint the challenges and opportunities of implementing EWS in FCV settings, this study looks at the four components of the traditional EWS value chain as outlined by WMO (see section 2) to identify solutions and good practices across all levels. This value chain is the leading methodological approach in literature and guiding reports for EWS implementation, as it provides a comprehensive overview of the key needs for effective EWS. The methodology employed for this study relied on three elements: 01 02 03 A literature review of EWS initiatives A portfolio review of World Bank Consultative interviews (details in in FCV countries: operations in FCV countries with appendix A): hydromet and EWS components: This phase involves a review of Selected interviews with World Bank existing literature, including research This phase involves the analysis of World task team leaders and external key articles, reports, and case studies Bank operational portfolios working on stakeholders and organizations focusing on hydromet services and improving hydromet services and EWS actively involved in EWS initiatives EWS initiatives implemented in FCV in FCV countries. This entails examining in FCV countries were conducted; settings. By synthesizing insights from both World Bank operational portfolios, these organizations include the academic and practitioner-oriented including lending and grants, and International Federation of Red Cross sources, this review aims to provide grants provided by the Global Facility and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the a comprehensive understanding for Disaster Reduction and Recovery World Meteorological Organization of the challenges, good practices, (GFDRR) for technical assistance (WMO), and the French Agency for and lessons learned from past EWS and analytics. The review aims to Development (AFD). interventions in FCV contexts. encompass a broad range of projects and initiatives aimed at strengthening EWS capacities in FCV contexts, including but not limited to infrastructure investments, capacity-building programs, institutional strengthening efforts, and knowledge management activities. This also encompasses the review of Implementation Completion Reports (ICRs) to reflect the lessons learned from activities that are already completed. For the purpose of this study, FCV settings are defined based on a wide-ranging interpretation as outlined in the World Bank’s FCV Strategy (World Bank 2020b). FCV encompasses countries or regions facing significant challenges related to fragility, conflict, or violence as well as those affected by spillovers of neighboring crises—such as refugee influx—which may manifest in various forms, including political instability, social unrest, armed conflict, or humanitarian crises. More specifically, the World Bank recognizes different typologies of FCV settings, distinguishing countries in the following categories (World Bank 2020b): 1. Countries with high levels of 2. Countries affected by violent 3. Countries with high levels of institutional and social fragility: conflict: These are identified based on interpersonal and gang violence: These are identified based on public a threshold number of conflict-related These are identified based on the per indicators that measure the quality deaths relative to the population. capita level of intentional homicides. of policy and institutions as well as This category distinguishes two Gender-based violence (GBV) and specific manifestations of fragility subcategories based on the intensity violence against children (VAC) are of violence: (1) countries in high- also integrated into this definition. intensity conflict and (2) countries in medium-intensity conflict. 5 This expansive definition acknowledges of challenges and opportunities associated solutions and recommendations presented the multidimensional nature of fragility with EWS implementation in FCV countries, may also hold relevance for other complex and recognizes the complex interplay drawing on insights from countries with environments, including remote or between political, social, economic, and varying degrees of fragility and conflict marginalized areas. By acknowledging the environmental factors that contribute to dynamics. potential transferability of solutions across vulnerability and instability. By adopting contexts, the study seeks to maximize the It is important to note that, while the this comprehensive understanding of FCV, utility and impact of its findings beyond the focus of the study is on FCV settings, the the study aims to capture the full spectrum specific parameters of FCV countries. 1.4 Limitations This section highlights key challenges and considerations related to the research approach taken for the development of this paper, providing transparency and context for the findings and recommendations presented in the subsequent sections.  Shifts in the nature of FCV settings: therefore recognizes the importance of  Limited focus on institutional setups The dynamic nature of FCV settings— tailoring solutions to specific contexts and governance: While the traditional where countries may rapidly transition and highlights diverse examples to EWS methodology incorporates from fragility to conflict or witness illustrate adaptable approaches. the issue of institutional setup as a abrupt escalations in violence, as preliminary step to the value chain  Incomplete identification of existing exemplified by events in Haiti and (see section 2), very few EWS initiatives solutions: Despite comprehensive Sudan in late 2023 to early 2024— are addressing this cross-cutting issue research efforts, it is important to presents methodological challenges through an explicit focus or activity recognize that the identification in presenting solutions derived (Seng 2012). To address this, this study and documentation of existing EWS from case studies. Consequently, will first holistically address the issue solutions may not be exhaustive. This solutions or recommendations drawn of governance in a dedicated section, includes the lack of comprehensive from a specific case study may lose prior to delving into the examination information on the implementation validity over time if such shifts occur of each individual component of the of geohazard and coastal hazard EWS in the country under examination. value chain. This strategic approach among FCV countries. There may To address this methodological aims to provide comprehensive exist alternative or complementary challenge, the paper showcases insights into the institutional approaches that have not been examples from a range of FCV severity frameworks that underpin successful captured or acknowledged in this situations and emphasizes the need EWS implementation in FCV settings. study. In addition, despite a few for flexible and adaptive strategies consultations with external partners, capable of swiftly responding to this paper primarily reflects the evolving contexts. practices and perspectives of World  Barriers to scalability of solutions Bank–supported initiatives. This presented: The vast heterogeneity limitation is acknowledged to ensure across FCV settings presents a that readers are aware of the potential significant barrier to scaling up breadth of EWS methodologies and solutions identified throughout this interventions beyond those discussed research. Context-specific factors— within this paper. To mitigate this such as varying levels of infrastructure, limitation, the paper emphasizes governance, societal dynamics, among ongoing collaboration, knowledge others— may limit the transferability sharing, and engagement with of successful EWS approaches from diverse stakeholders to continuously one setting to another unless there is enrich the understanding of effective careful contextualization. The paper EWS practices. Endnotes 1 The list of fragile and conflict-affected situations (FCS) is released annually by the World Bank and aims to inform strategic and operational decision-making within the World Bank. The list is based on publicly available global indicators followed by an internal review, and is updated every year on July 1 to reflect changes in country situations. This list is available at https://thedocs.worldbank.org/en/doc/ a91e714e0a53291b569c4a41981aa2c5-0090082023/original/FCSList-FY06toFY23.pdf. 2 The Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative Index (ND-GAIN Index) measures a country’s vulnerability to climate change and its readiness to adapt to its impact. It assesses vulnerability based on exposure to climate hazards, sensitivity to those hazards, and capacity to adapt. See the index at Notre Dame Global Adaptation Initiative. (2023). Country Index. University of Notre Dame. https://gain.nd.edu/our-work/country-index/. 7 2 The Case for EWS in FCV Settings: Challenges, Adjustments, and an Operational Paradigm Shift 2.1 Establishing EWS: A review of the traditional framework 2.1.1 The four pillars of EWS An early warning system (EWS) is a mechanism designed to detect and provide timely information about potential hazards or threats. It consists of an integrated architecture of hazard monitoring, forecasting and prediction, disaster risk assessment, communication and preparedness activities, systems, and processes that enables individuals, communities, governments, businesses, and others to take timely action to reduce disaster risks in advance of hazardous events (UNDRR 2007). An effective, end-to-end, multi-hazard EWS comprises four key interrelated elements (WMO 2018) (see figure 2.1). The different activities and processes involved in maintaining such systems are often referred to as the EWS value chain. These are: DISASTER RISK KNOWLEDGE. WARNING DISSEMINATION AND COMMUNICATION. Risks at a given location arise from the combination of hazards, Activities under this component of EWS include developing exposure, and vulnerability. It is therefore critical to identify reliable and tailored information; identifying regional-, national-, hazards and understand risks through systematic data collection and community-level communication systems; and ensuring that and analysis in order to prioritize EWS needs and support early warnings reach decision-makers, emergency responders, and action by those most at risk. This is the first step in designing an those at risk. This entails the development of a communication EWS: identifying the hazards and risks the system will be used to and dissemination plan to ensure that warnings reach the intended detect. This may involve conducting hazard and risk assessments audience in a timely and effective manner. This may involve using to determine the likelihood and potential impact of different multiple communication channels, such as SMS, email, social hazards and risks, considering vulnerability and exposure. media, and public address systems. DETECTION, OBSERVATIONS, MONITORING, ANALYSIS, AND PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE CAPABILITIES. FORECASTING OF HAZARDS. Preparedness refers to the measures taken in advance to anticipate Activities under this component lie at the core of the EWS risks, while response capabilities refer to the ability to react and include determining the most appropriate equipment, promptly and effectively to a hazard or emergency when it occurs. technologies, and methods to collect, store, and analyze This includes developing education and preparedness programs information on key weather/climate variables and developing (safe behaviors, available escape routes, and so on) to ensure robust forecasts and warnings. This involves considering factors that communities understand the risks and ensuring that disaster such as the type of hazard or risk being detected, the geographic response plans are in place and implemented as well as providing area covered by the system, and the available resources. assistance and emergency relief to those affected. 8 The four pillars of EWS require sound governance and institutional arrangements enabling seamless interactions among key actors responsible for each of the components, framing their implementation within the overall disaster risk management (DRM) governance mechanism. Importantly, policy and regulatory frameworks should ensure that adequate financial resources are available to institutions in charge of the different pillars of EWS and those responsible for implementing early/ anticipatory action. Albeit essential to the effectiveness and sustainability of EWS, evidence shows important financing gaps; these are even larger in conflict-affected settings as a result of heightened challenges such as restricted access, increase infrastructure damage, and disruption to financial systems (Jaime et al. 2024). Figure 2.1. Four pillars of end-to-end, people-centered early warning systems Source: WMO 2022a. Detection, observations, monitoring, Disaster risk knowledge analysis, and forecasting of hazards Systematically collect data and undertake Develop hazard monitoring and early risk assessments warning services  Are the hazards and the vulnerabilities well known by the communities?  Are the right parameters being monitored?  What are the patterns and trends in these factors?  Is there a sound scientific basis for making forecasts?  Are risk maps and data widely available?  Can accurate and timely warnings be generated? Preparedness and response capabilities Warning dissemination and Build national and community response communication capabilities Communicate risk information and early  Are response plans up to date and warnings tested?  Do warnings reach all of those at risk?  Are local capacities and knowledge  Are the risks and warnings made use of? understood?  Are people prepared and ready to  Is the warning information clear and react to warnings? usable? 9 Advancing further, the WMO framework for multi-hazard, impact-based EWS identifies 10 elements for building an effective EWS (see figure 2.2):1  Institutional arrangements, which involve the establishment of regulatory frameworks, policies, and plans that prioritize DRM within institutional structures. This step encompasses the development of governance mechanisms and coordination mechanisms to enable effective disaster response and risk reduction efforts.  Earth observation data, which focuses on the methods and infrastructure available for obtaining Earth observation information. It includes satellite imagery, remote sensing technologies, and ground-based monitoring systems to gather data on environmental conditions, hazards, and potential risks.  Data information and collection, which refers to the methods and/or infrastructure for collecting global and regional information. It involves the systematic collection of data on weather patterns, hydrological conditions, geological phenomena, and other relevant parameters. It encompasses the deployment of weather stations, stream gauges, and other monitoring equipment to gather real-time data.  Hazard detection, which involves data analysis software and algorithms to detect hazards based on the information provided. It includes the processing, analysis, and interpretation of data to identify potential threats such as storms, floods, earthquakes, and landslides.  Hazard decision support, which comprises the availability of hazard models and understanding whether a threat is imminent or not. Through scientific models, simulations, and risk assessments to evaluate the severity and likelihood of hazards, this step informs decision-making processes and helps authorities determine appropriate response actions.  Warnings and other infrastructure products, which focus on how hazard information is presented in different formats, such as watches, advisories, or statements. It includes the development of warning systems, alert mechanisms, and communication protocols to disseminate timely and accurate information to the public, stakeholders, and decision-makers.  Impact-based forecasting/warnings, which use hazard, vulnerability, impact, and risk assessments rather than generic hazard information such as wind speeds to communicate likely impacts. It involves the integration of socioeconomic data, demographic information, and infrastructure mapping to anticipate and communicate potential consequences of hazards.  Dissemination and notification, which encompass all methods that pass on hazard and warning information. This step involves the deployment of communication channels, including radio broadcasts, text alerts, social media platforms, and mobile applications. It ensures that warning messages reach affected communities, stakeholders, and response agencies in a timely and accessible manner.  Risk communication, which is the system’s ability to appropriately warn all people and communities at risk. It involves the development of tailored communication strategies, community outreach programs, and public awareness campaigns to enhance understanding of risks, promote preparedness, and facilitate informed decision-making.  Finally, community connection and response, which incorporate how the community can respond to hazard/ impact information and whether the appropriate response is carried out. This step emphasizes community engagement, capacity-building, and the facilitation of coordinated response efforts to mitigate the impact of hazards and enhance resilience. 10 Figure 2.2. The 10 elements of the classic early warning system value chain Source “WMO 2023d”: https://wmo.int/sites/default/files/2023-10/WMO_Innovation_in_PPE_-_multi-hazards_early_warning_system_ Bapon_2020-04-17_Final.pdf Note: AWS = Automatic Weather Stations; DART = Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis. 11 2.1.2 Key actors of the EWS value chain (national and local levels) National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS) are information to relevant authorities, communities, and essential in the value chain of EWS (WMO 2018). These agencies stakeholders through various communication channels. Media are responsible for collecting and analyzing weather/climate data and communication channels, including telecommunications, and issuing warnings for various small- and large-scale severe play a critical role in disseminating these messages and essential weather events, including flash floods, heatwaves, cyclones, information to the public through television, cell broadcast, radio, thunderstorms, and tornadoes. In addition to providing data and social media, and other platforms. warnings, NMHS are often involved in other aspects of EWS, such Preparedness and crisis response is generally the prerogative as developing communication and dissemination plans, providing of national and local disaster management agencies, in training and education to the people who will be using the system, coordination with other actors such as civil protection services, and collaborating with other organizations and agencies to ensure military institutions, humanitarian and relief organizations (for that the system is effective and reliable. example, national Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies), and Other risk knowledge and hazard detection bodies include nongovernmental organizations including community-based and seismological and geological observatories, which monitor grassroot organizations and international and United Nations (UN) seismic activity, ground deformation, and geological hazards agencies. Emergency services and response agencies mobilize such as earthquakes, volcanic eruptions, and landslides. They emergency responders; deploy resources; and coordinate rescue, inform risk reduction measures and provide timely warnings to relief, and recovery efforts in the aftermath of a hazard event, minimize the impact of geological phenomena on communities and providing emergency assistance, medical care, shelter, and infrastructure. Statistical agencies also play a critical role in the logistical support to affected populations. Likewise, vulnerable EWS value chain by providing data on socioeconomic indicators, sectors, including industries and critical public infrastructures, population demographics, and other relevant variables to risk often develop preparedness and response plans or contingency understanding and impact assessment. Likewise, research centers plans to mitigate risks at their level. Finally, at the local level, and academia contribute to the EWS value chain through scientific municipalities play a pivotal role in the EWS value chain by research, data analysis, and knowledge generation. serving as frontline responders and community leaders in disaster preparedness. They are responsible for engaging with local Warning dissemination and communication are usually communities, raising awareness about hazards, and educating coordinated by national disaster management authorities residents on preparedness and response measures. (NDMAs), which disseminate early warnings and emergency 12 2.1.3 Cross-cutting challenges of EWS implementation in FCV settings This section outlines some of the common cross-cutting challenges faced in implementing EWS within FCV settings. These challenges are general considerations that impact various components of EWS, ranging from data accessibility to institutional weaknesses. provides a detailed examination of how each challenge influences specific aspects of the EWS value chain, based on findings from the literature review and interviews conducted for this study (see appendix A for details on interviewees). The primary challenges are: Data accessibility. Limited access to reliable and timely data is a pervasive challenge, hindering precise forecasting, warning, and response capacities as a result of fragility or conflict-induced information gaps. Financial resources. FCV settings often face financial constraints, restricting the deployment and maintenance of essential weather monitoring equipment and limiting opportunities for personnel recruitment and training, thus undermining the effectiveness of EWS. Human resources. Shortages of skilled personnel in hydromet and other hazard detection services and civil protection exacerbate operational challenges in FCV countries. This scarcity is often intensified by the prevailing conflicts and violence, which not only deter the allocation of qualified individuals by national institutions but also prompt many trained experts to emigrate in search of safety and stability. This challenge underscores the importance of developing sustainable strategies for human resource development and retention within EWS projects in FCV countries. Additionally, the specialized nature of EWS projects requires expert suppliers and consultancies, which are scarce and often reluctant to engage in FCV markets because of the associated risks and uncertainties. This reluctance exacerbates the difficulty in assembling teams with the right expertise, making it a significant hurdle for operational teams. Disrupted infrastructure. Conflict and violence may lead to the destruction or deterioration of crucial infrastructure such as weather monitoring stations, communication networks, and transportation routes. This disruption hampers data collection, communication, and response efforts, worsening vulnerabilities and diminishing the resilience of communities to climate and disaster risks. Institutional weaknesses.  Weak governance structures, political instability, and lack of law enforcement in FCV settings hinder the establishment and coordination of various actors and institutions involved in developing and operationalizing EWS. Additionally, redundancy in efforts between different agencies, including government and development/humanitarian organizations, further complicates coordination efforts. Access to communities. Engaging and mobilizing communities in FCV settings to participate in EWS initiatives could pose challenges, given real and perceived factors such as fear, mistrust, and social fragmentation, as well as competing priorities linked to the many challenges communities may face in an FCV environment. Additionally, potential language barriers, cultural sensitivities, and historical grievances might hinder effective communication and cooperation, thereby limiting the reach and impact of early warning messages. Insecurity. Security concerns, encompassing threats to the safety of personnel and infrastructure, present significant challenges to hydromet and EWS implementation. Insecure environments restrict the deployment of field teams, the maintenance of monitoring equipment, and the dissemination of warnings, thereby compromising the effectiveness of EWS and endangering lives. 13 Table 2.1. Cross-cutting challenges of hydromet and EWS implementation in FCV settings Pillar II: Pillar III: Pillar IV: Pillar I: Detection, monitoring, Warning dissemination Preparedness and Risk knowledge analysis, and forecasting and communication response capabilities Data Limited access to remote Limited access to reliable Incomplete or outdated A lack of understanding of accessibility areas for data collection, hazard data hampers timely databases on vulnerable the impact, stemming from coupled with the absence and accurate forecasting. populations, general insufficient data, makes of historical hazard data Challenges persist in population growth, and it challenging to assess and limited availability integrating diverse data infrastructure hinder targeted where and how to prepare of socioeconomic data, sources and formats into a warning efforts. Additionally, and respond to disasters. significantly impede unified system. continued displacement Additionally, the absence of the acquisition of vital makes it difficult to locate, contingency plans exacerbates information necessary for [See box 3.8 on integrated identify, and disseminate this issue. accurate forecasting and transboundary EWS systems information to affected warning capabilities. There in Africa and Asia] community members. This is also limited knowledge of also means that the sudden vulnerability and exposure influx of IDPs can create maps, which are dynamic. sudden population surges that Data gaps on hazards also a local authority may need to impede the development of serve during or after conflict accurate hazard maps. and/or disaster. [See box 3.5 on [See appendic C, case study understanding flood risks in 2 on Bangladesh’s resilience South Sudan] amid the Rohingya crisis] [See box 3.6 on AI-based technologies in the Sahel] Financial Understanding risks Insufficient visibility regarding Inadequate funding Absent, inadequate, or aging resources necessitates investments institutional and financial for the development equipment for emergency in software, data gathering, support for NMHS hampers and maintenance response interventions and updating surveys. their development and of communication significantly disrupts effective Securing funding is essential modernization efforts. Limited infrastructure—such as radio emergency management. for these endeavors. financing options for the long- networks, cell broadcast term maintenance of hazard capabilities, and internet [See box 3.7 on financial detection, monitoring, and connectivity—poses challenges to weather forecasting equipment pose significant challenges. forecasting and innovative challenges. Furthermore, the technological responses lack of capacity to effectively allowing for low-cost data operate modeling systems gathering in Afghanistan] exacerbates these issues. Human Experts such as DRM There is a shortage of There is a scarcity of trained Civil protection services resources specialists and sociologists skilled personnel, including personnel, including risk and disaster management are often in short supply. meteorologists, hydrologists, communication specialists, agencies have limited Additionally, there is and geologists, who are telecommunication capacities for emergency a notable absence of needed to operate monitoring specialists, translators, and response. Additionally, institutional arrangements systems and interpret data community outreach workers. conflict, displacement, and a lack of representation effectively. Furthermore, or migration can provoke from the research sector and there is a notable issue of shortages of trained staff, academia. high turnover rates and talent comprising first responders, migration among qualified medical professionals, and professionals, often driven community volunteers. by conflict, instability, or insufficient incentives. [See box 3.3 on collaborative efforts for DRM advocacy [See box 3.2 on engaging non- and challenges to capacity state actors in reporting and building in Haiti] data-sharing mechanisms in Nigeria] 14 Pillar II: Pillar III: Pillar IV: Pillar I: Detection, monitoring, Warning dissemination Preparedness and Risk knowledge analysis, and forecasting and communication response capabilities Disrupted Data collection mechanisms During conflict, monitoring Damage or destruction of Critical infrastructure— infrastructure degrade as a result of stations, weather radars, communication networks, including roads, bridges, criminality, conflict, or and communication radio and cell towers, and hospitals, and communication disaster events and lack of networks often are damaged power lines is common networks—often sustains funding for maintenance or destroyed. Access to during conflict. Limited damage or destruction during and repair. Access to remote remote or hard-to-reach access to electricity, conflict or disaster events. or hard-to-reach areas is areas is constrained by telecommunications, and This results in limited access limited by damaged roads, damaged roads, bridges, internet services in remote to transportation, health care, bridges, and transportation and transportation or conflict-affected areas and basic services for affected routes. Additionally, data routes. Moreover, exacerbates the issue. populations. Moreover, archives or repositories may disrupted power supply Additionally, disrupted disrupted supply chains and be destroyed. and telecommunication transportation routes and logistical challenges hinder infrastructure impede logistical challenges hinder the delivery of humanitarian data transmission and the delivery of warning assistance and relief supplies communication. messages to vulnerable to remote or conflict-affected communities. areas. [See box 3.11 on leveraging traditional institutions to [See box 3.9 on the disseminate early warning importance of early detection messages in FCV settings] and forecasting for effective damage mitigation in the Republic of Yemen] Institutional Inadequate institutional There is insufficient visibility Fragmented or overlapping There is a lack of clarity weaknesses arrangements impede risk regarding institutional and responsibilities among regarding the roles and understanding, often as a financial support for NMHSs government agencies and responsibilities of primary result of outdated systems to facilitate development humanitarian organizations respondents. Coordination or ineffective operation. and modernization. There hinder warning dissemination among government agencies, Furthermore, there is often are often no standardized efforts. In the absence of humanitarian actors, and civil a lack of clarity on roles and operating procedures between standardized protocols and society groups involved in responsibilities, along with hydromet agencies. Moreover, procedures for issuing and preparedness and response insufficient data sharing. there is a notable weakness in disseminating warnings activities is fragmented Additionally, biased data institutional capacity for data across various sectors and or inefficient. There are from governments may analysis, modeling, and risk regions, the process might few to no procedures arise, particularly regarding assessment. In some cases, become more complex. for emergency response specific populations in cases countries may have separate Additionally, a lack of planning, coordination, and of local conflicts or defiance hydrology and meteorology guidelines or legal frameworks decision-making. Additionally, against the state. agencies, which do not for alert communication and institutional capacity for report to the same ministries, dissemination from the public contingency planning is weak. [See box 3.1 on building creating an additional sector to the public further institutional and technical coordination challenge. complicates matters. [See box 3.4 on navigating capacity in Afghanistan] complex resource and governmental constraints in the Republic of Yemen] Access to A lack of understanding Communities may exhibit Mistrust in official Cultural norms conflicting communities regarding the impact of a lack of engagement in communications and with the principles of inclusive in FCV settings hazards on communities, combating vandalism of government warnings is a EWS, such as traditional particularly the most hydromet materials and common issue. In areas of views on the role of women vulnerable populations, may stations. regional conflicts, subnational in crisis preparedness or be evident. Additionally, governments may not have the discrimination against specific there is often a deficiency capacity to even disseminate communities, pose challenges. in contextualizing the messages. Additionally, Additionally, limited trust knowledge of hazards. varying levels of literacy and and cooperation between linguistic diversity, alongside communities and authorities, [See box 3.10 on community- different communication stemming from historical based EWS in Mozambique] tools, complicate matters. grievances, social tensions, [See box 3.13 on Furthermore, there is or perceived neglect, further contextualized EWS often limited community complicate matters. Cultural communications campaigns] awareness and understanding or linguistic barriers hinder the of warnings. Moreover, the understanding of emergency absence or limitation of protocols. feedback mechanisms and channels for community [See box 3.12 on addressing input and participation in social trust in the Republic of the warning dissemination Yemen] process exacerbates the issue. [See box 3.14 on addressing public doubt in Nigeria] 15 Pillar II: Pillar III: Pillar IV: Pillar I: Detection, monitoring, Warning dissemination Preparedness and Risk knowledge analysis, and forecasting and communication response capabilities Security Limited access to conflict- Threats to the safety and Restrictions on freedom Security concerns arise when concerns affected areas or regions security of monitoring of expression and media accessing conflict-affected with high levels of violence personnel and equipment censorship by armed groups areas, including instances significantly restricts field are prevalent in conflict- or government authorities of violence. The presence of data collection efforts. The affected or high-risk areas. limit the number of accessible landmines further complicates destruction of archives Restrictions on movement channels for warning safe access. Threats to exacerbates the challenge and access imposed by dissemination. the safety and security of of accessing historical data. armed groups or government responders, volunteers, and Communities may face authorities further limit the affected populations during intimidation for reporting deployment of monitoring emergency operations in hazards or collaborating teams. There is a limited conflict-affected or high- with government or number of firms available for risk areas are significant. external efforts on risk the installation of hydrological Restrictions on humanitarian understanding, further and meteorological stations access and freedom of hindering data collection working in FCV contexts movement imposed by and cooperation. because of instability and armed groups or government security concerns. authorities exacerbate these [See box 3.15 on integrating challenges. Additionally, fear conflict sensitivity into of reprisals or intimidation disaster preparedness against communities feasibility studies in Mali] cooperating with response efforts or seeking assistance from external actors is prevalent. Source: Original table for this publication. Note: DRM = disaster risk management; EWS = early warning services; FCV = fragility, conflict, and violence; IDPs = internally displaced persons; NMHS = National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. 2.1.3 Rethinking the traditional methodology: Tailoring solutions and prioritizing the end user Although EWS have been established in many parts of the While the design and implementation of end-to-end EWS in such world, their effectiveness is often hindered by the complexity conditions might not be feasible, it is possible to overcome critical of their components and the multitude of stakeholders, which challenges by adopting a user-centric approach that prioritizes are often working in silos. Modernization efforts supported by the needs and realities of local communities. By pinpointing the development partners that often focus on specific components most relevant and sustainable segments along the EWS value of the EWS value chain, without a system wide perspective, fail to chain, tailored and participatory actions can be implemented. yield short-term benefits for those most at risk (Tyubee 2021). In This approach, informed by the unique contextual dynamics addition, the inclusion of groups often excluded or disadvantaged of engagement, offers a pathway to enhance the development based on gender, disability, sexual orientation, and a wealth of of EWS and their effectiveness even in the most challenging factors remains a challenge, particularly in FCV settings. In these environments. environments, challenges are compounded by the destabilizing effects of FCV. Endnotes 1 Impact-based early warning systems are a type of warning system that focuses on predicting and communicating the potential impacts of hazardous events, such as natural disasters or extreme weather, rather than just forecasting the event itself. These systems provide actionable information to help individuals, communities, and decision-makers understand the specific risks they face and take appropriate preparedness and response actions to minimize harm and enhance resilience. 16 17 3. In Practice: Alternative Options for Establishing EWS in FCV Settings From scarce resources to disrupted infrastructure and social tensions, fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV)-affected contexts present unique obstacles to the effectiveness of early warning systems (EWS). Nevertheless, there are opportunities for innovative and tailored approaches that prioritize the needs and capacities of the end user. By exploring solutions across the traditional EWS value chain, this section aims to identify practical strategies and good practices capable of scaling up the operational impact of hydromet and EWS investments in FCV settings. 3.1 Cross-cutting topic: Governance and institutional arrangements A robust EWS requires a clear institutional framework are needed to facilitate the sharing and access of data that ensures the efficiency and sustainability of between different agencies and organizations. This early warning development and delivery. This is includes policies for data sharing between government typically achieved through a legal arsenal (laws, agencies, guidelines for sharing data with the private decrees, and so on) that outlines the roles and sector and the public, guidance and policies on responsibilities of different actors intervening in the dissemination of warnings, and response planning. development of EWS and response planning. This legal In fragile and in conflict-affected states, having such framework establishes the authority, legal mandates, extensive institutional support is often not possible, responsibilities, financing options, and accountability and even when legal frameworks for disaster risk of the agencies and organizations responsible for the management (DRM) do exist, they are often not early warning value chain. It is supported by standards practiced. This is because of factors relating to conflict, and operating procedures that include technical which can lead to a collapse of the government systems specifications for data collection and analysis as well as or to a protracted fragility in which the institutions guidelines for the communication and dissemination cannot function in a way that allows them to perform of warning information. The institutional framework collaboratively in the DRM space (Sikorsky, Femia, and also provides a set of policies and regulations that Hugh 2023). 18 allocation for the continued maintenance and training on Depending on the country context and the capacity of hydromet, seismic, or coastal monitoring systems (Jaime et al. development agencies to engage with the government or not 2024). This involves not only diversifying funding sources but (as is the case in the Syrian Arab Republic, for example), some also supporting hydromet and other hazard data collection and approaches may allow them to combine the need for long- management agencies in order to develop adequate business term policy dialogue on strengthening capacities in hydromet models to sustain their activities. This may involve revenue- and other hazard forecasting, preparedness, and response generating activities, cost recovery mechanisms, and exploring with working to ensure the delivery of early warnings to opportunities for public-private collaborations. Furthermore, communities at risk in the short to medium term: fostering enhanced coordination among donor agencies is crucial to optimize resource allocation, minimize duplication of efforts, and maximize the impact of investments in EWS infrastructure and capacity-building initiatives.  Acknowledging the primary responsibility of state  Joining efforts with other international technical and institutions (national and local governments) in early financial partners. Joint efforts from international technical warning delivery. While external support and local, and financial partners can play a pivotal role in catalyzing nongovernmental initiatives play a crucial role in early warning the empowerment of key DRM agencies, as witnessed in the delivery, efforts from the development community should case of Haiti (see boxes 3.1 and 3.3). By providing sustained focus on complementing and reinforcing government-led support and advocating for institutional independence, these initiatives rather than supplanting them, with a view toward partnerships can help strengthen the institutional setup for building sustainable institutional capacity over the long term. EWS even in challenging contexts. It is imperative to avoid redundancies in the system and instead  Engaging with non-state actors (NSAs). International prioritize support for strengthening coordination mechanisms frameworks such as the United Nation’s Enhanced Transparency from the government side. Framework highlight the importance of NSAs to sustaining  Finding the balance between reinforcing national climate action and disaster risk reduction efforts (UNEP 2023). institutions and acknowledging limitations. In conflict Drawing on their local knowledge and resources, including situations where government institutions are compromised through community-based networks, integrating NSAs into (see box 3.1 on Afghanistan and box 3.4 on the Republic of EWS can help bridge the gap between the top-down crafting Yemen), innovative approaches must be pursued to ensure of national strategies and the bottom-up mobilization needed that early warning reaches those most in need. This may for implementation at community level. Nigeria’s case (see box involve leveraging local networks and community-based 3.2) presents significant insights into what is possible and what organizations, by engaging with local nongovernmental challenges persist, highlighting the complex interplay between groups. Simultaneously, efforts should be made to reinforce non-violent and violent NSAs. It also underscores the potential and support dialogue with the government, when possible, of using EWS to enhance accountability and transparency, aiming to build the foundations for engaging in longer-term both in terms of peacebuilding efforts and in EWS frameworks capacity building when the conflict situation allows. themselves. While engaging with such groups may be necessary for effective EWS delivery including to populations that may live  Building on existing capacities. In contexts such as outside the scope of internationally recognized government Niger (see case study 1 on Niger in appendix C), where an (see box 3.4), it is imperative to do so with caution to avoid any institutional framework for DRM exists despite challenges unintended consequences, such as reinforcing the legitimacy related to conflict at the subnational level, there is a critical or power of corrupt groups. need to build on existing government capacities. Leveraging these established structures allows for the preservation of  Considering the relevance of public-private partnerships institutional knowledge and expertise, ensuring continuity (PPPs): PPPs have the potential to enhance the effectiveness and effectiveness in EWS operations. Likewise, in instances of EWS, in particular by ensuring that warnings get effectively of sudden changes in context—such as those experienced in delivered to those at risk. Encouraging partnerships with local Bangladesh (see case study 2 on Bangladesh in appendix C), telecom companies, for instance, can offer valuable resources where a well-functioning system faced strain due to the sudden and expertise in communication redundancy planning and influx of Rohingya refugees as a result of violence on a massive infrastructure protection, making them reliable partners scale in the neighboring country of Myanmar—there arises an in emergency situations to effectively disseminate warning urgent imperative to ramp up support, both financially and messages. operationally. This proactive approach is essential to prevent the degradation of a functioning system and to sustain its ability to provide timely and accurate warnings, safeguarding lives and livelihoods in the face of evolving threats.  Developing sustainable financing mechanisms and ensuring resource coordination. Ensuring the long-term viability of EWS in FCV contexts necessitates sustainable financing mechanisms, including dedicated funding or budget 19 Box 3.1. Navigating Afghanistan’s evolutions Region: With more than 32 million people warnings, and climate data) (WMO 2017). South Asia affected and over 7,000 fatalities resulted These efforts were supported by regional from climatological, hydrological, initiatives such as the Central Asia Flood Country: meteorological, and climatological Early Warning System (CAFEWS), which Afghanistan disasters since 2000, Afghanistan is one expanded their modeling capabilities Hazard addressed: of the most vulnerable countries to the to cover parts of Afghanistan. These Floods and flash floods, droughts, changing climate.1 The Afghanistan interventions strengthened the landslides, other hazards (avalanches, Meteorological Department (AMD), placed institutional arrangements to facilitate hot waves, cold waves, and agricultural under the Afghanistan Civil Aviation coordination among key stakeholders, pests/diseases) Authority, was funded in 1955 and is the and the country had an established early agency responsible for the provision of warning framework (Morshed et al. 2024). Current FCV status: nationwide meteorological services, Conflict Following the change of regime in 2021, including monitoring, collecting, and the World Bank and other development archiving weather- and climate-related partners faced a hiatus in their formal data; providing forecasts and early engagement in Afghanistan. Renewed warnings; providing public weather efforts began in late 2022 and 2023 for the services; and providing meteorological World Bank, marked by the introduction services for agriculture and transportation of Approach 3.0, which provides the (including civil aviation) (Morshed et overarching framework for the institution’s al. 2024). However, decades of war engagement in Afghanistan. Under have brought instability and insecurity this approach, all funds are directed that have reduced public resources, through grants to UN agencies or other institutional capacities, collaboration, international organizations. In line with the and coordination as well as large-scale overarching objective to support Afghan damage to its observation network people in building resilience, the World infrastructure. This has resulted in Bank ASA project AF-ECLIM: Enhancing weakened institutions governing weather, Hydromet, early warning and Climate climate, and hydrological services as Services for Resilience (P168141), funded well as early warning and disaster risk by the Climate Risk and Early Warning management (DRM). Systems (CREWS) trust fund, prioritized the Since early 2000s, targeted interventions following areas of support: provided by international donors and – Updating the Hydromet Roadmap, specialized agencies to AMD have initially launched in 2018, to contributed to significant achievement chart sustainable pathways for within the hydromet value chain. These the development and delivery of interventions focused on addressing urgent people-centric, inclusive, and fit- needs (the rehabilitation and installation of for-purpose hydromet and early observation networks, including the use of warning services; innovative technologies such as 3D printing) (CREWS 2020b) while building the long- – Piloting innovative tools on drought term institutional and technical capacity risk management, through promot- of AMD through a World Meteorological ing the utilization of remote sensing Organization (WMO)-implemented project. data sets and machine learning tech- As a result, AMD was able to issue its first niques for seasonal forecasting; and flood early warning for the country’s south – Enhancing risk-informed decision- and southeastern regions in 2017, and it making and building adaptive capac- now provides nationwide meteorological ity through community-based DRM. services (for example, forecasts, early Note 1 CRED (Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters) (1980-2024). EM-DAT - The International Disaster Database. https://www.emdat.be/ . 20 Box 3.2. Integrating non-state actors in EWS: Lessons from Nigeria Region: In northern Nigeria, violent extremist Enhancing Early Warning Systems for Africa groups have profoundly destabilized the Climate Disaster Preparedness through region, posing significant challenges to NSA Integration Country: security and stability. While involving Nigeria By incorporating NSA reporting and data- violent non-state actors (NSAs) in early sharing mechanisms, EWS can harness Hazards addressed: warning systems (EWS) is unfeasible the grassroots presence of NSAs while Floods because of their extremist activities, ensuring transparency and accountability. monitoring their actions is crucial for Current FCV status: Initiatives such as the Global Risk Mapping anticipating crisis events. Collaboration Conflict Initiative (GRMI) leverage open geographic with nonviolent local organizations has information system (GIS) data to enhance proven effective in detecting threats preparedness for recurring flood events posed by armed groups. However, attributed to climate change (Esri 2023). without robust policy interventions, these Led by youth volunteers with expertise in efforts are susceptible to aid diversion or geospatial mapping, GRMI has facilitated civilian abuse. real-time flood reporting, comprehensive The shift of nonviolent NSAs toward event databases, and interactive tools corrupt and oppressive activities has been utilized as EWS resources. observed in Nigeria, particularly evident in Since its inception, GRMI has mapped 25 Borno State. The emergence of the Civilian communities in Nigeria, bolstering disaster Joint Task Force (CJTF) aimed to bolster preparedness by including marginalized government efforts against Boko Haram communities and highlighting flood amid insufficient military responses. While susceptibility in key areas such as schools, the CJTF provided rapid local response and marketplaces, and farmlands. These data valuable intelligence, instances of human inform both governmental and community rights abuses, including extrajudicial actors in preparing for flood events and killings, underscore the necessity of guiding infrastructural development clear legal frameworks, comprehensive planning. training, and robust accountability mechanisms in EWS initiatives involving The Nigerian case underscores the NSAs (Ozden and Kwabe 2019). multifaceted nature of NSA involvement in EWS, presenting both opportunities Conversely, faith-based groups and non- and risks necessitating robust mitigation governmental organizations (NGOs) have strategies. While NSAs offer local capacity played a pivotal role in conflict resolution and access, effective governance and through community engagement and early regulation are imperative to prevent response efforts. The Interfaith Mediation human rights violations or loss of control. Centre, founded by Imam Muhammad Through accountable community- Ashafa and Pastor James Wuye, who were based monitoring networks, NSAs can once involved in inciting farmer-herder significantly strengthen early warning conflicts in 1992, showcases a remark- efforts, contributing to comprehensive able transition from violent to nonviolent disaster risk reduction initiatives. NSA (Daniel 2023). This transformation has been instrumental in catalyzing regional initiatives for Early Warning and Early Response (EWER). For example, the center’s work inspired the formation of the Community Peace Action Network, which serves as a vital data collection, analysis, and dissemination entity in crisis-affected areas, fostering collaboration between state and NSAs. 21 Box 3.3. Successes and challenges in Haiti Region: The World Bank has sustained its efforts challenges—including limited visibility, Latin America and Caribbean on early warning systems (EWS) and funding, and resources—leading to hydrometeorology in Haiti for over two understaffing and a loss of capacity. Country: decades, primarily through collaboration Despite extensive efforts to support Haiti with two key agencies: the Civil Protection the agency’s upgrade through strategic Hazards addressed: (Direction Générale de la Protection national planning, progress has stalled, Hurricanes, floods Civile, or DGPC) and the Hydromet Unit largely due to competing priorities and the (Unité Hydrométéorologique d’Haïti, or urgency of current events in Haiti. While Current FCV status: UHM). A significant milestone occurred extensive capacity-building initiatives Fragility, violence in 2020 when the DGPC was elevated were undertaken over the past decade, to an independent entity, granting it the eruption of violence since 2018, which greater autonomy and a dedicated dramatically worsened since January 2024 budget line in the national budget. This (UN Security Council 2024), has resulted achievement was the result of joint in the departure of trained personnel, efforts from the World Bank and United necessitating a reset in efforts. Nations partners through assistance on A key lesson learned, which is being legal matters, advocacy campaigns, and tried by the World Bank teams through collaboration with the Ministry of Finance the Strengthening DRM and Climate as well as making it a pre-requisite Resilience Project (P165870), is the to the effectiveness of a World Bank importance of identifying and nurturing Development Policy Operation (DPO). “champions” within the hydromet agencies This marked a success in bolstering the to sustain engagement efforts alongside institutional framework for disaster risk maintaining policy dialogue with national management (DRM). authorities on DRM at a higher level to Conversely, the UHM faces significant advocate for necessary reforms. 22 Box 3.4. Engaging on hydromet and EWS in a war zone: Lessons learned from the Republic of Yemen Region: In the Republic of Yemen, the governance national authorities. The World Bank team Middle East and North Africa and institutional setup of early warning engaged in the Republic of Yemen through systems (EWS) face significant challenges the Integrated Urban Services Emergency Country: exacerbated by the ongoing conflict, Project II (P175791), and the GFDRR grant The Republic of Yemen which has caused major loss of life, “a roadmap for managing climatic risks Hazards addressed: internal displacement, destruction of in Yemen” is attempting to navigate this Floods, landslides, water scarcity, infrastructure, and disruptions in service complex situation by: extreme heat delivery across the country’s main – Accessing hydrometeorological sectors. The country is controlled by Current FCV status: hazard information from global data various factions, leading to fragmented Conflict sets such as those from the World governance structures (Center for Meteorological Organization (WMO) Preventive Action 2024). Decentralized and regional centers; and local institutions often demonstrate greater resilience compared to national- – Strengthening national and local level counterparts, but they still struggle capacities where possible, focusing to function optimally due to resource on sustainable engagement and constraint, political instability, and a existing platforms; lack of trust between the citizens and – Ensuring the dissemination of authorities. warning messages while addressing Despite these challenges, institutions in the challenge of building social trust the country continue to operate, albeit in the information; and with varying degrees of effectiveness. It – Prioritizing coordination with is crucial to strike a balance in providing other stakeholders, including support to these institutions, ensuring humanitarian organizations, civil that assistance does not bypass the society groups, and international government’s capacity, even if it is limited. agencies such as the UN, which have This requires a nuanced approach that access to high-conflict intensity prioritizes the needs of the population while areas where the World Bank cannot respecting the sovereignty and capacity of intervene. 23  Hazard identification. Understanding the characteristics of key hazards (for example, their spatial extent, magnitude, intensity, and probability), including possible cascading impacts through the analysis of historical data, is a critical element of risk assessments. Under FCV settings, where resources are limited, determining the appropriate hazard—with the greatest impacts and risk—is essential to implementing risk assessments and ultimately to the development of an effective EWS. Based on country-specific realities, it is necessary to identify the most appropriate source of hazard data from the following stakeholders: (1) National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHS), (2) the WMO catalogue of extreme weather events, and 3.2 Pillar I: Disaster (3) research institutes—for example, the Dartmouth Flood Observatory, Copernicus, risk knowledge the International Research Institute (IRI), and FloodList. Technological innovations related to the collection and analysis of large data sets (for example, cloud computing, Assessment of disaster risks, Artificial Intelligence, remote sensing technologies) and the available wealth of Earth which arise from the combination observations from satellites enable the development of hazard exposure products, of hazards and vulnerabilities, which are of great relevance in FCV settings (see box 3.5 on South Sudan). requires the systematic collection  Vulnerability and exposure. Vulnerability and exposure data or indicators are required and analysis of data on hazard for the development of risk assessments to inform the design of effective EWS. For exposure and socioeconomic instances where the impacts of FCV prevent collaboration with the primary data characteristics and should consider providers such as government ministries (agriculture, environment, social welfare, the dynamic nature of hazards and health, water, energy) and national disaster management authorities, the humanitarian vulnerabilities related to processes sector (affected communities, traditional knowledge holders, practitioners), local such as urbanization, rural land- newspapers, and social media represent potential alternatives. In Uganda, for instance, use change, environmental under pilot forecast-based financing projects, the Red Cross and Red Crescent National degradation, and climate change. Societies and their partners built impact-based forecasting for river flooding using Often, risk assessments use a historical newspaper records and disaster records of previous floods (Red Cross Red combination of objective and Crescent Climate Centre, 2020). A similar approach, leveraging artificial intelligence (AI) subjective methods, depending technologies, was tested across the Sahel to identify signatures of food insecurity (see largely on users’ feedback. In box 3.6 on AI for predicting food insecurity). Additionally, international collaboration in FCV settings, however, the FCV the DRM sector has contributed to the development of global data sources—for example, impacts tend to exacerbate existing EM-DAT, DesInventar, PreventionWeb, the Oxford Poverty and Human Development vulnerabilities of people to weather- Initiative, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), and climate-related hazards and the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC), and the World Food Programme decrease coping capacities. (WFP)—which provide important resources (see appendix B for resources on global data In addition, the lack of financial products). Nonetheless, ensuring that vulnerability and exposure data are of high quality, resources, equipment, and available in a timely manner, and inclusive can be challenging. Data sets must be kept technical capacity to conduct up to date to ensure the impact-based forecast or warning using the data is reliable. It is such data collection, as well important to recognize that many official governmental data sources, such as a national as inadequate institutional census or demographic and health surveys, are updated infrequently—every 5 or arrangements, represent key 10 years. challenges to the implementation  Participatory approaches to data generation and weather information. In FCV of effective and sustainable EWS. settings, participatory approaches to risk understanding are particularly relevant, Nonetheless, evidence suggests especially when data access is challenged or when institutional data may not always that a sound understanding of be available or reliable. This involves engaging with local communities, including the different components of the internally displaced persons (IDPs) and stakeholders to understand, assess, and disaster risk assessment and manage risks collaboratively. Through facilitated workshops, knowledge sharing, the harnessing of technological and the co-design of solutions, these approaches empower communities to actively advances and achievements of participate in risk understanding and preparedness efforts while providing a useful global and regional initiatives entry point to enhance accessibility and inclusivity in the design of the EWS.1 are key elements to support the implementation of this pillar under FCV settings. More specifically: 24 Box 3.5. Flood early warning in South Sudan: Understanding risks and capacity building Region: South Sudan is a global hotspot for of the flooding in recent years (2015–22). Africa flood risk, ranking seventh in the world Global flood products such as the Fathom for share of total country population data set (Sampson et al. 2015), which Country: exposed to river floods (Borgomeo et al. provides high-resolution information South Sudan 2023). The dramatic flood events of 2019, from a global hydrological model on the Hazards addressed: 2020, 2021, and 2022 are stark reminders depth and extent of inundation from Floods and flash floods of this extremely high exposure to flood undefended floods during flood events hazards. Floods in 2021 affected between of different frequencies, were effectively Current FCV status: 800,000 and 1.2 million people, displaced used to understand the overall flood risk Conflict more than 300,000 people, and caused across the country (Borgomeo et al. 2023). economic damage of at least $671 million Despite the challenges, these assessments (World Bank, no date, unpublished). These provided better flood risk understanding disasters are compounded by an already and paved the way to further engagement. challenging situation characterized by Through the Climate Risk and Early Warning a protracted humanitarian and forced Systems (CREWS)2 East Africa Project— displacement crisis, unprecedented levels Strengthening Hydro-meteorological of food insecurity, widespread violence, and Early Warning Services in the East and fragile institutions. In this context, the Africa Region—South Sudan will benefit development of end-to-end early warning from interventions aimed at strengthening systems (EWS) is severely undermined by national EWS and hydromet capacity. challenges such as unclear government Activities include more specifically: (1) mandates, crowded development space, assessment of hydromet monitoring weak technical capacity, and data scarcity. network and early warning infrastructure; The development of remote sensing and (2) development of a roadmap for EWS/ artificial intelligence (AI) technologies hydromet services strengthening; (3) have supported leapfrogging these critical strengthening hydrological monitoring for hurdles. target areas; (4) improving the capacity Under the Global Development Assistance of South Sudan to generate, customize, (GDA) program of the European Space and disseminate hydromet EWS services; Agency (ESA),1 the World Bank supported and (5) implementing pilot actions for the Ministry of Water Resources and community-level, impact-based flood Irrigation through a remote-sensing based early warning. assessment of the extent and occurrence Notes 1. The European Space Agency (ESA) program (2020–2025) was aimed at mainstreaming and transferring Earth observations into operational working processes and financing of official development assistance (ODA) or development aid as a best practice source of geo-information. 2. The Climate Risk and Early Warning Systems (CREWS) initiative is a financial mechanism which funds projects in the least developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states (SIDS) to establish risk-informed early warning services. 25 26 Box 3.6. The application of AI-based technologies for understanding food crises in the Sahel Region: Anticipating food crisis outbreaks is crucial in news articles over time and across Africa to efficiently allocate emergency relief and districts. These were then incorporated protect lives. However, existing models into a machine-learning model to generate Countries: rely on risk measures and information monthly district-level predictions of the Regional project, with a focus on that are often outdated or incomplete. A Integrated Phase Classification (IPC) of Somalia, Ethiopia and South Sudan collaboration between the World Bank food insecurity. The study demonstrated Hazards addressed: and New York University developed a new that during the period from 2009 to 2020 Food insecurity (due to various hazards method for early detection of severe food and across 37 food-insecure countries, including drought, floods, pests and insecurity crises in the Sahel (Balashankar, news indicators substantially improve the diseases) Subramanian, Fraiberger 2023), which district-level predictions of food insecurity leverages recent advances in deep learning up to 12 months ahead relative to baseline Current FCV status: and natural language processing to extract models without text information. This Conflict mentions of risk factors of food insecurity approach, which can be extended to other from the text of more than 11 million news natural hazards such as floods, could articles about food-insecure countries significantly contribute to understanding published between 1980 and 2020. By and predicting risks in fragility, conflict, identifying nearly 170 relevant keywords and violence (FCV)-affected settings and and phrases—such as “conflict,” “pests,” improve decision-making in data-scarce “drought,” “floods,” “raising food prices,” environments. and “migration”—the project was able to build risk indicators of food insecurity from the occurrences of these mentions 27 3.3 Pillar II: Detection, monitoring, analysis, and forecasting of hazards Regular monitoring of hazard parameters and precursors is essential to generate accurate warnings with adequate lead time. Warning services for different hazards should be coordinated where possible to gain the benefit of shared institutional, procedural, and communication networks. At the national level, activities under this pillar fall under the responsibility of NMHS, which are agencies mandated for collecting and analyzing weather/climate data and issuing warnings for a variety of small- and large-scale severe weather events (for example, flash floods, heatwaves, and cyclones). These agencies operate hydromet networks with different capacities to make in-situ, manual, or automatic weather and hydrological observations of basic parameters—pressure, temperature, The implementation wind, humidity, rainfall, water levels, and so on—which have numerous applications including the development of weather forecasts and warning through different modeling of an effective EWS is platforms (for example, numerical weather prediction, or NWP). Frequently, NMHSs tend intrinsically related to to prioritize the development of their own national, local, and limited-area deterministic NWP modeling systems using in-house high-performance computing and information and timely access to accurate communication technology (ICT) solutions. NMHS are supported in their mission by other weather and climate stakeholders, including specialized observatories and warning centers (such as water, volcano, and earthquake centers); universities and research institutes; private sector data, which requires a equipment suppliers; telecommunications authorities; regional technical centers; and UN sound scientific basis for agencies such as the UNDRR, WMO, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), ITU, and monitoring and forecasting so on. It should be emphasized that even with accurate and timely hydromet warnings, the safety of life and the prevention of significant economic losses are not assured. hazards as well as a reliable This underscores the necessity of transforming conventional forecasts—predictions of 24-hour forecasting and hydromet conditions—into practical insights regarding possible impacts on lives and livelihoods. This transformation is achieved through impact-based forecasting methods warning system. that utilize a blend of meteorological prediction models, historical records, and an understanding of the local terrain and assets. 28 While it is clear that, to achieve their intended goals, NMHSs require robust monitoring and forecasting and warning systems, it is also essential to ensure that institutional mechanisms are established and functional. The impacts of FCV often result in the destruction of hydromet equipment and underfunding of national agencies posing critical challenges to optimal operation. Depending on the FCV context, interventions targeting different components of the pillar, with the support of regional and international partners, have proven useful.  Capacity building and technical assistance. This is  International and regional collaboration. International particularly relevant when operations are threatened by and regional cooperation can support the development the fragility of institutions, resulting in a lack of technical and sustainability of effective EWS by providing technical capacity for the operation and maintenance of networks and assistance, innovative solutions, and financial resources. the development of forecasts and warnings. Tailored hands- Hazards, more often than not, cross national boundaries. on support on the use of critical modules (for example, cloud However, there are large geographical gaps in global computing, forecasting, and data processing tools) often observations’ availability; yet these observations are critical result in efficient operations strengthening the hydromet for local weather forecasts. The WMO Global Basic Observation value chain (CREWS 2017). Network (GBON) approach, which represents a paradigm shift in the international exchange of observation data, aims at  Technical innovations. The progress made over recent ensuring that a surface-based observing network is designed, decades in scientific forecasts and risk assessments makes defined, and monitored at the global level, improving the it possible to have precise predictions about when and availability of most essential surface-based data and resulting where extreme weather—especially large-scale events such in an improved quality of weather forecasts. Considering as cyclones, droughts, and river floods—are likely to occur the challenges that countries with few resources might and what their likely impacts will be to avert and minimize face, the Systematic Observation Financing Facility (SOFF) the impacts of hazards. Global and regional forecasting was launched in July 2022 to finance the gaps in GBON and products—for example, the European Centre for Medium- support the production and exchange of basic surface-based Range Weather Forecasts, or ECMWF; the Global Forecast observational data critical for the improvement of weather System, or GFS; and the Global Flood Awareness System, forecast and climate services. Advancing EWS in FCV settings or GloFAS—provide forecasts of key weather and climate could also be supported by the Climate Risk and Early Warning variables at different spatial and temporal resolutions, Systems (CREWS), a financial intermediary fund managed which can be leveraged to develop warnings. In FCV settings, by GFDRR and the World Bank that supports EWS in least resorting to impact-based forecasting for hazards with the developed countries (LDCs) and small island developing states greatest impact and risk is potentially a solution to the lack (SIDS), through three partners: the United Nations Office for of resources. However, it is essential that there is sufficient Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR), WMO, and GFDRR. As of April modeling capability and forecasting knowledge for the 2024, the CREWS initiative had mobilized over $124 million for considered hazard. Technological development also includes advancing EWS at the global, regional, and country levels for solutions that make it possible to build low-cost affordable LDCs and SIDS. Collaboration mechanisms at the regional level sensors for hydromet observation networks (for example, 3D could also be leveraged to address key challenges arising from printing of spare parts), providing alternatives in a context the impacts of FCV (see boxes 3.8 and 3.9 for two examples of of scarce financial resources (see box 3.7 on 3D printing in regional cooperation). Afghanistan). 29 Box 3.7. 3D printing technology in Afghanistan Region: One common barrier to expanding early and components can be “re-printed” South Asia warning systems (EWS) in fragility, conflict, locally. Equipped stations can measure and violence (FCV)-affected countries is the temperature, humidity, wind speed and Country: high cost of required technical equipment, direction, and precipitation; they are Afghanistan as the cost of a standard weather station powered by solar panels, ensuring that Hazard addressed: can run from $50,000 to $100,000 (CREWS they can operate even in areas with limited Floods and flash floods, water-borne 2020b). One innovative solution explored access to electricity. diseases outbreaks by the World Meteorological Organization This is an example of innovative (WMO) in Afghanistan is the use of three- Current FCV status: technology allowing, for a relatively low dimensional (3D) printing technology Conflict cost, for an increase in the coverage and to locally produce components for the accuracy of weather data, particularly construction of weather stations. This in remote and hard-to-reach areas, to is a cost-effective technology: with an complement traditional weather stations initial overall investment of $5,000 for that are less feasible (WMO 2023a). As of the necessary tools and 3D printers, a April 2024, AMD has initiated the piloting very high-quality 3D-Printed Automatic of three 3-D PAWS stations, which will Weather Station (3D-PAWS) can be provide a foundation for the feasibility, manufactured in approximately one scalability, and sustainability of such week for between $200 to $400 each. It stations to support improvement in is also a sustainable solution as it can be weather forecasting in the country. assembled at the local meteorological office or in other related agencies Box 3.8. Service provision and capacity building: The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard Early Warning System Region: The Regional Integrated Multi-Hazard countries. Through this mechanism, a 1 South Asia Early Warning System for Africa and to 10–day flood forecasting system was Asia (RIMES) is an international and developed for the Bangladesh Flood Country: intergovernmental institution owned Forecasting and Warning Centre (BFFWC). Regional project and managed by its Member States. It is Given the challenges in operating the Hazard addressed: a regional early warning system (EWS) system, the responsibility for using the Floods and flash floods within a multi-hazard framework for the models to prepare flood forecasts was generation and communication of early Current FCV status: handed to RIMES to improve the range of warning information and for capacity Fragility, conflict, violence the operational forecasting technology building for preparedness and response to 10–15 days for three major river basins: to transboundary hazards. RIMES Ganges, Brahmaputra, and Jamuna. The leverages high-end computing facilities RIMES 15-day flood forecasting system of India (Ministry of Earth Sciences) was crucial in preserving lives and and the European Centre for Medium- livelihoods during the monsoon floods Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF). of 2020: floodings were detected 14 days It plays a central role in supporting ahead, and the post-monsoon assessment National Meteorological and Hydrological revealed that 97 percent of the beneficiaries Services across 48 member countries and received forecast-based advisory, flood collaborating states in Asia and the Pacific forecasts, and warnings through the and in Africa, and across the entire early system, enabling them to take early action. warning value chain—from modeling and Such regional and transboundary systems forecasting to decision-support tools can support different countries based that facilitate climate service delivery for on their specific contexts and could offer sectoral agencies and end users. Most opportunities for enhanced interventions of the beneficiaries are least developed under FCV settings. countries (LDCs), small island developing states (SIDS), and high-risk developing 30 Box 3.9. Early detection and forecasting of Cyclone Tej in the Republic of Yemen: A case of regional cooperation Region: Between October 23 and 24, 2023, the The early detection of TC Tej can be Middle East and North Africa extremely severe Cyclonic Storm Tej made attributed to the monitoring efforts of the landfall on the eastern Yemeni coast, India Meteorological Department (IMD). Country: wreaking havoc in the Al Maharah, Socotra, As early as October 16, 2023, the IMD The Republic of Yemen and Hadramawt governorates (GFDRR began monitoring for the formation of Hazard addressed: 2024, unpublished) The cyclone brought a cyclonic circulation in the Arabian Sea Cyclone about strong winds, heavy rainfall, and (Mint 2023). Leveraging its participation in widespread flooding, causing significant the WMO panel on Tropical Cyclones – Bay Current FCV status: damage to homes, crops and livestock, of Bengal and Arabian Sea (WMO/ESCAP), Conflict and infrastructure. Nevertheless, early established in 1972 and comprising 13 detection of the Tropical Cyclone (TC) member States (WMO 2022b), the IMD through regional forecasts enabled provided timely TC surge advisory to authorities in South Yemen to implement relevant member countries, including the timely precautionary measures, thereby Republic of Yemen (WMO 2023b, 2023c). reducing the storm’s impact. These This regional cooperation facilitated the measures included declaring a state dissemination of critical information of emergency in the southern regions, and enabled Yemeni authorities to take suspending schools, and advising proactive measures to mitigate the impact fishermen to stay home (GFDRR 2024, of Cyclone Tej. unpublished). 31 3.4 Pillar III: Warning dissemination and communication Information on upcoming hazards must be transformed into clear, areas where subnational conflict is rife. Carefully constructed coherent, and practical messages for widespread dissemination and FCV-sensitive messaging is required to maximize the to all individuals. The messages must be easily understood and likelihood of precautionary actions being taken, and taken in a applicable to real-world situations. Early warnings should be issued way that does not risk heightening the exposure of individuals from trustworthy sources, ensuring consistency in messaging and to other types of risks, such as those associated with violence instilling confidence in the information provided. This consistency or conflict (see appendix C’s case study 2 on Bangladesh). helps to avoid confusion and ensure that individuals take  Diversifying communication channels, including leveraging necessary actions promptly in response to warnings. Furthermore, existing local networks and community-based organizations receiving warnings from credible sources enhances public trust alongside innovative technologies. Establishing EWS that and confidence in the EWS, increasing the likelihood of compliance utilize a variety of communication channels is crucial to with recommended safety measures and evacuation procedures. disseminate warnings effectively. This approach involves This is often done through the establishment of communications engaging diverse channels such as health outreach workers, standard operating procedures (SOPs), which ensure that messages mobile veterinarians, and religious leaders to ensure broad are clear, consistent, and available across various communication coverage and accessibility, particularly in FCV settings channels and that they are tailored to the specific context and end- where traditional communication infrastructure may be user needs, thus enhancing public understanding of and response limited (see box 3.11 for examples from Afghanistan and to warnings. Bangladesh). Additionally, leveraging existing local networks Nevertheless, establishing effective warning dissemination and community-based organizations enables EWS to tap into and communication mechanisms is challenging in FCV settings intimate knowledge of local contexts and effectively reach because of various factors—such as limited capacity within marginalized or difficult-to-access communities. In tandem, government institutions, ongoing conflicts, or breakdowns in integrating innovative technologies such as mobile phones communication infrastructure—that hinder the establishment and social media platforms enhances the reach and speed of robust communications networks. Additionally, trust of warning dissemination, offering direct communication deficits between communities and authorities can impede avenues even in areas with disrupted infrastructure (see box the effectiveness of the warning. Likewise, SOPs may exist 3.10 on Mozambique). These strategies hold relevance for but may not be applied due to institutional weaknesses, lack reaching transient or mobile communities, such as pastoralists of enforcement mechanisms, and ongoing conflict dynamics. in the Sahel African region or migrant populations, who may In the absence of a robust government-led communications have limited access to fixed communication infrastructure. department, alternative measures must be sought to ensure  Building partnerships with humanitarian organizations, timely and effective dissemination of warnings to vulnerable international NGOs, and local media outlets to strengthen populations. Such measures include: warning dissemination efforts in FCV countries. These  Taking into consideration the social trust question. In partnerships can facilitate the production and distribution FCV settings where the social contract is fragmented, of informational materials, organize public awareness trust between communities and official authorities may campaigns, and amplify warning messages through radio be weak or non-existent (see box 3.12 on overcoming trust broadcasts, television programs, or community events. challenges in Yemen) (Bonfanti et al. 2023). In such cases,  Ensuring inclusivity in communication plans (GFDRR careful consideration will need to be taken to ensure that 2023b) for accessibility to all community members, early warnings are distributed through a range of channels including marginalized groups such as women, children, including, for example, religious groups, local leaders, and persons with disabilities, and ethnic minorities. Tailor civil society organizations. Therefore, it is imperative to warning messages to diverse cultural and linguistic conduct a thorough analysis to identify trusted actors within contexts, using accessible formats such as audio recordings, the community and determine the most appropriate channels visual aids, and tactile signals. Engage with community for dissemination based on differing patterns of trust. leaders and representatives to ensure that information is  Crafting tailored, FCV-sensitive, messaging. In FCV settings, effectively disseminated and understood by all, addressing the content of early warning messages must be FCV-sensitive. barriers such as limited literacy levels or lack of access This is especially the case where there are recommendations to technology. to relocate, which is a particularly sensitive request for communities that may have previously been displaced by disasters, conflict, or other reasons; it is also challenging in 32 Box 3.10. Lessons learned on inclusive and diversified early warning communication from Mozambique Region: Photo B3.10.1. An ICS mobile brigade conducts a community mobilization exercise Africa at a fishing village Country: Mozambique Hazard addressed: Floods, cyclones Current FCV status: Conflict Mozambique has faced fragility, conflict, communication and helping affected and violence-related challenges for communities take adequate actions based several decades, with a civil war from on early warning information (World Bank 1977 to 1992 and an ongoing insurgency 2019). Local trained community brigades in the northern region since 2017. Political educate and alert communities on instability and governance issues have upcoming hazards through door-to-door further undermined development efforts. communication campaigns, in addition Additionally, frequent disasters, such as to warnings emitted through SMS and cyclones and floods, have compounded community radios. these vulnerabilities, hindering recovery The relatively low numbers of fatalities and resilience. of 2023 Cyclone Freddy, as opposed to The World Bank is supporting the country the devastation left by 2019 Cyclone Idai, in addressing some of these challenges showed the success of this approach, through the Mozambique Disaster allowing to disseminate the alerts to the Risk Management Program (P166437), most remote communities (World Bank which includes the establishment of an 2023a). early warning system (EWS) for floods and cyclones, with the support of a GFDRR grant . The program emphasizes a community-based approach to EWS, focusing on ensuring last-mile 33 Box 3.11. Warning dissemination by religious leaders in Afghanistan and Bangladesh Region: In Afghanistan, religious institutions assigned to the Directorate of Hajj and South Asia are responsible for issuing religious religious affairs the responsibility of rulings (fatwas) on various issues and passing the warning at the provincial level Country: can be leveraged to disseminate early to communities at risk through mosques Afghanistan warnings messages for natural hazards, (Noori and Sherzad 2020). The religious Hazard addressed: particularly in rural and remote areas leaders were able to issue warnings to Floods and flash floods where other communication channels people ahead of the impending flood may be limited. For example, during the and advise them on how to prepare and Current FCV status: 2014 flood in the northern province of respond. Conflict Badakhshan, the Afghanistan National Disaster Management Authority (ANDMA) Region: In Bangladesh, the effective use of EWS settings. This initiative was conducted South Asia was exemplified during the COVID-19 in collaboration with the government, pandemic, when religious leaders played a allowing for the communication of official Country: pivotal role in disseminating critical health messages with the assistance of UN Bangladesh messages (UNICEF 2020). Notably, in the agencies. Hazard addressed: densely populated Rohingya refugee These are examples of how traditional Disease outbreak camps, where access to conventional institutions can be leveraged to media is limited, the engagement of up to Current FCV status: disseminate early warning messages, 500,000 religious figures, including imams, Fragility particularly in fragility, conflict, and was instrumental. Their deep-rooted trust violence (FCV)-affected countries where and authority within the community other communication channels may be allowed them to combat misinformation limited. By working with local religious and ensure the penetration of accurate, leaders, it is possible to reach vulnerable life-saving information even in the most communities and increase their awareness remote and rural areas. This strategy and preparedness. underscores the importance of leveraging existing community structures and trusted voices to implement EWS in refugee and internally displaced person (IDP) camp 34 Box 3.12. The need to overcome the social trust challenge in the Republic of Yemen Region: In the Republic of Yemen, the ongoing Amid these challenges, a recent success Middle East and North Africa conflict has shattered social trust, story emerged during tropical Cyclone presenting significant obstacles to Tej, which hit the southeastern coast Country: effective early warning communication of the country in October 2023. Local The Republic of Yemen and dissemination. With different authorities were able to provide timely Hazard addressed: governing entities backed by various warnings to the population, including Cyclone international actors, the country fishermen, accompanied with guidance remains fragmented. While locally based on preparedness actions, based on Current FCV status: community early warning systems (EWS) regional forecasts (Al-Batati 2023). This Conflict led by nongovernmental organizations proactive approach resulted in a degree (NGOs) or community organizations have of early action from the population, been established for specific hazards, showcasing the importance of trust in including cholera outbreaks (Simpson et EWS. Significantly, the affected area was al. 2021), the issue of social trust looms one of the least impacted by the conflict, large. Citizens are left uncertain about likely contributing to the population’s what information to believe, and an NGO- willingness to heed warnings. led EWS may even worsen trust in the state. 35 3.5 Pillar IV: Preparedness and response capabilities In FCV contexts, trust issues between communities and when possible. Indeed, over-reliance on NSAs may undermine national authorities, internal conflict dynamics, lack of basic the social contract and trust between citizens and national infrastructure, security concerns, and limited human and authorities, ultimately impacting the effectiveness of financial capacities are some of the common challenges to preparedness and response efforts. As such, engagement with the effective delivery of preparedness programs and prompt NSAs, including community leaders and nongovernmental response to emergencies. These challenges underscore the organizations (NGOs), should go hand in hand with investing need for tailored approaches that prioritize community in strengthening national capacities for disaster preparation engagement and address gaps in the decision-making process. and response (see box 3.13 on Haiti’s program). These approaches include:  Comprehensive understanding of vulnerabilities,  Engaging with NSAs. Engaging with local communities allowing for more targeted preparedness planning. This through community leaders or non-state groups may entails recognizing the unique challenges and dynamics in sometimes be the only way to reach those living in the most a given area and integrating FCV-sensitive analytics into remote areas or in areas located outside the control of preparedness and response strategies (see box 3.15 on national authorities. This will enable a deeper understanding lessons from Mali on integrating conflict sensitivity and of local dynamics and tailor preparedness plans to specific case study 2 on Bangladesh in appendix C). Identifying and contexts (see box 3.14 on traditional leaders’ engagement in addressing the specific vulnerabilities faced by communities Nigeria). Participatory approaches that involve community will allow for a more efficient allocation of resources, members in decision-making processes will ensure ownership targeted actions ahead of a hazard, and tailored emergency and sustainability of preparedness initiatives (see box 3.13 on interventions, thereby mitigating risks and holistically Haiti’s preparedness program). Likewise, engaging with actors enhancing community resilience. working in FCV settings, such as peace-building networks or  Adapting preparation plans to local culture to reinforce risk conflict-mitigation actors, could be another avenue to explore culture. Cultural considerations shape people’s perceptions, for supporting preparedness efforts and encouraging early behaviors, and response to disasters, influencing how action. For example, in Lebanon, the United Nations Interim they prepare for and cope with disasters. By incorporating Forces in Lebanon (UNIFIL), whose primary mandate is the local customs, traditions, and knowledge, preparedness monitoring of peace and security along Lebanon’s southern efforts become more relevant, accessible, and accepted border, also engage in disaster preparedness activities by community members (see box 3.13 on Haiti’s hurricane through regular collaboration with local civil protection forces preparedness program and case study 2 Bangladesh in and volunteers by providing trainings and equipment ahead appendix C). of the forest fire season (UNIFIL 2023, 2024).  Mainstreaming disaster preparedness into broader  Recognizing the windows of opportunity to reinforce development plans. Preparedness plans must be included state-led efforts in disaster preparedness and emergency in broader development programs and strategies in order to response. Engaging with NSAs, including international effectively respond to disasters (see appendix C, case study 4 organizations that play a fundamental role in delivering on Honduras). This involves integrating contingency planning emergency relief in places where the state lacks the capacity into key sectors of the economy to enhance resilience to to respond, is key to supporting communities affected by shocks and emergencies. high levels of violence or those living outside of the scope of the national authorities. Nevertheless, it is crucial that these efforts be balanced and complement state-led initiatives Box 3.13. Haiti’s hurricane preparedness program Region: In Haiti, a GFDRR grant supported the hurricane preparation and response. The Latin America and Caribbean design of a hurricane preparedness communications campaign and activities communications campaign for the that were held around it in partnership Country: General Directorate of the Civil Protection, with civil society organizations helped Haiti including three educational podcasts, increase local communities’ preparedness Hazards addressed: one song with video, and visuals for the and response capacities to hurricanes, Hurricane Civil Protection’s social media pages— including early warning. Facebook, Instagram, and X (formerly Current FCV status: A big part of the campaign’s success lay in Twitter). This work was conducted in Fragility, violence its anchor in local culture and traditions, partnership with a local nongovernmental including singing and dancing. By organization (NGO) that mobilized various communicating about disaster risks and civil society groups. This led to the the role of civil protection, the project creation of local disaster risk management also increased citizen’s understanding (DRM) committees, which contributed of the DRM function at the local and to the design of the communications national level. campaign and benefitted from training on Photo B3.13.1. Music video developed to increase risk awareness Source: Image taken from the music video for the GFDRR project “Strengthening DRM at the local level in a fragile context in Haiti”, World Bank 2020a. Note: This music video and other campaign assets are used with permission by the Haiti Directorate of Civil Protection. These materials were developed in collaboration with Pacifico, a firm specialized in risk communications. 37 Box 3.14. Traditional leaders’ engagement for COVID-19 response in Nigeria Region: In Nigeria, public doubt about the hand hygiene, mask-wearing, and physical Africa existence of the COVID-19 virus and distancing to curb the spread of the widespread poverty were found to virus. By leveraging their credibility and Country: be the major hindrances in the fight influence, they helped foster a sense of Nigeria against the pandemic (Ekoh et al. 2021). collective responsibility and encouraged Hazards addressed: A multifaceted approach was adopted widespread adoption of recommended Disease outbreak to enhance preparedness and response public health practices. to the COVID-19 pandemic, leveraging Current FCV status: Furthermore, targeted interventions the expertise of traditional community Conflict were implemented to address specific leaders and building on the lessons challenges and vulnerabilities within learned from previous public health communities, particularly in remote and campaigns, particularly in the context of underserved areas. Traditional leaders polio eradication (WHO 2021). One key collaborated with local health authorities activity involved community sensitization and international partners to facilitate and mobilization efforts, where the distribution of personal protective traditional leaders played a central role in equipment, hygiene kits, and other disseminating accurate information about essential supplies to frontline workers and COVID-19 transmission, symptoms, and vulnerable populations. They also played a preventive measures. Through community crucial role in promoting vaccine uptake and gatherings, radio broadcasts, house-to- addressing vaccine hesitancy, advocating house visits, and the use of town criers for the importance of vaccination and to disseminate information about the dispelling myths and misinformation. In virus, these leaders actively engaged with total, over 7,000 community leaders were residents, emphasizing the importance of involved in these efforts. Box 3.15. Integrating conflict sensitivity into feasibility studies for disaster preparedness projects: Lessons from Mali Region: Civil protection was identified by the level of confusion among local populations Africa Agence Française de Développement (AFD) between civil protection forces and as a potential entry point for disaster risk defense and security forces because of Country: reduction (DRR) work in the Sahel region their similar uniforms and, at times, armed Mali due to its perceived positive image. In presence. This posed potential risks as the Hazards addressed: 2021, AFD launched a project to support civil protection forces could be targeted Floods, wildfires the preparedness and response capacities by armed groups. Additionally, despite of the Civile Protection Directorate in Mali. the initial trust in civil protection forces, Current FCV status: As part of this initiative, a feasibility study communities expressed their hesitancy to Conflict combined with a conflict and fragility seek their assistance due to the perceived analysis was conducted. The project area risk of being targeted by jihadist groups. spans the border areas of Mali, Burkina These findings prompted the AFD to Faso, and Niger, inhabited by diverse ethnic adjust project activities accordingly— groups. Much of the area is under the for example, by refraining from building control of radical armed groups, such as shelters in certain areas where armed the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara and groups could retaliate against local the Support Group for Islam and Muslims populations collaborating with the (Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wa al-Muslimeen). government. This case underscores the importance of integrating conflict Integrating conflict sensitivity into the sensitivity into project design to mitigate feasibility study allowed for tangible risks and ensure the effectiveness of impacts on project activities, such as disaster preparedness initiatives in identifying the location of rescue centers. conflict-affected contexts such as Mali. For instance, the study revealed a high Endnotes 1 For further reading on participatory approaches and inclusive EWS, see GFDRR 2023b. 38 4.Conclusion and Way Forward 4.1 Summary of key findings This research has highlighted the significant challenges inherent in establishing early warning systems (EWS) within fragility, conflict, and violence (FCV)-affected settings. These obstacles encompass fragmented governance structures, limited financial resources, security concerns, and complex socio-political dynamics. Concurrently, the study acknowledges that FCV environments often possess rudimentary components of EWS, which can serve as a starting point or a foundation that can be expanded upon thoughtfully and with sensitivity to FCV-specific conditions. The paper also emphasizes that, in the long run, instituting changes in FCV settings demands a steadfast commitment to support and guidance, which must be thoughtfully orchestrated well in advance. This proactive handholding approach is crucial for navigating the complexities inherent in FCV environments, where instability can undermine the sustainability of EWS investments. It involves continuous engagement with local communities, building trust and fostering ownership of the EWS to ensure its relevance and effectiveness. By planning for sustained assistance, stakeholders can adapt to the evolving challenges and needs of these contexts, thereby reinforcing the resilience of the EWS and the communities it serves. To navigate these complexities, this paper identifies potential methodologies and alternative strategies that are feasible within the constraints of FCV contexts. It proposes strategic recommendations to boost the coordination and efficacy of multistakeholder efforts. These recommendations include the integration of FCV insights into the development of EWS that are both appropriate for the context and considerate of budgetary constraints; the promotion of cooperation across a broad spectrum of actors, encompassing local communities, government bodies, international organizations, and donors; the facilitation of funding access and the strategic alignment of international development assistance; and the melding of high-level policy dialogue with the empowerment of local stakeholders and community engagement to ensure the longevity and effectiveness of EWS initiatives. Finally, this paper champions a user-centric approach to the EWS value chain, shifting from a focus on improving hydromet services to one that is aiming at improving service delivery. By beginning with the identification of the end users (Who), understanding the needs of communities at risk (What), and tracing these requirements backward through the system (How) from data analysis to message dissemination, interventions can be developed that are not only technically sound but also deeply rooted in the context of FCV settings. This user-centric methodology ensures that EWS initiatives are not only effective but also inclusive, therefore resonating with the realities and challenges faced by those most vulnerable to disasters. 39 4.2 Ways forward Moving forward, scaling up EWS coverage in FCV settings requires a concerted effort that addresses specific operational gaps. Throughout the literature review, portfolio review, and interviews conducted for the purpose of this report, some specific needs of development practitioners have been identified that may help in improving the efficiency and quality of the design and implementation of EWS projects. These needs, which can be considered as potential next steps to the present research, are summarized below. The primary audience for these recommendations is World Bank task teams and management, but it is hoped that the suggested ways forward may also be of use to external audiences. Elaboration of a decision tree for task teams working on hydromet services and EWS in FCV settings. Implementing EWS in stable environments is already highly challenging, let alone in conflict-affected and fragile contexts, where the challenges are further compounded by heightened risks and uncertainties. To meet these challenges, there is a need to provide guidance to task team leaders who may not be familiar with the intricacies of these environments. Developing a decision tree tailored to FCV contexts may help identify the most relevant entry points along the EWS value chain and guide strategic decision-making. This decision tree should offer a systematic approach for assessing the unique contextual dynamics, identifying key stakeholders and potential barriers, and selecting appropriate interventions based on the specific needs and priorities of the affected communities. Development and maintenance of a roster of consultants specialized in fields relevant to EWS, with specific expertise and experience in operating within conflict-affected and fragile contexts. These consultants would offer diverse skill sets ranging from risk assessment and hazard mapping to contingency planning and communication specialists, community engagement, and capacity building. Careful consideration is needed to balance the selection of international versus national experts in the consultant roster, as experience shows that local expertise and knowledge is crucial to the implementation of EWS in FCV settings. This roster would serve as a resource pool for task teams and implementing agencies, facilitating the identification and deployment of relevant technical expertise and support as needed. Creation of a register of specialized firms and global tools offering technological solutions across the EWS value chain, from data collection and analysis to communication and dissemination. Technological innovations play a crucial role in enhancing the effectiveness and reach of EWS in conflict-affected and fragile contexts. Several firms leverage cutting-edge technologies such as satellite imagery, remote sensing, and machine learning to develop innovative solutions tailored to the specific needs and constraints of FCV settings. Such a register can not only allow for the rapid deployment of scalable solutions that can adapt to evolving threats and vulnerabilities, but it can also help gain efficiency in procurement processes by identifying the best and tailored solutions for a given context. Development of a comprehensive framework of existing and emerging technologies to effectively harness the potential of innovative technologies for hydromet and EWS. This framework should detail how these technologies can be tailored for different components of the EWS value chain, including risk knowledge, monitoring and warning services, dissemination and communication, and response capability. While these technologies hold particular relevance for FCV countries, their application should be considered universally, with adaptability for diverse geographical and socioeconomic contexts. 40 Development of standardized or template instruments and legislative texts to streamline and facilitate certain aspects of EWS implementation, in particular intergovernmental cooperation but also collaboration with private sector entities and nongovernmental and international organizations. One such tool could be a draft memorandum of understanding (MoU), which serves as a standardized framework for formalizing agreements and collaborations between government entities at different levels. Other examples can include drafting template texts for legislation or policy for emergency communications plan to disseminate warnings, or contingency plans to mitigate the impact of disasters on communication equipment. Likewise, developing standardized terms of reference (ToR) to help commission a consultant or firm to produce FCV-sensitive analysis relevant to the design and implementation of an EWS activity would allow for a more systematic integration of FCV considerations. Facilitate accessibility to funding for technical assistance (TA) to streamline integrated risk analytics and approaches for designing sustainable hydromet interventions—for example, concept of operations (CONOPS), total cost of ownership (TCO)—before embarking on EWS endeavors in FCV settings. These TAs would support the systematic identification of viable engagement strategies, key stakeholders to engage from the outset, ongoing initiatives by partners and governmental entities, and the most pressing needs. This structured analysis enhances the relevance and efficacy of EWS initiatives while fostering collaboration and coordination among stakeholders, ultimately bolstering resilience in FCV settings. TA funds, such as those offered by GFDRR, can provide the necessary resources to conduct comprehensive analyses, ensuring that EWS interventions are sustainable and adaptable to the unique challenges of FCV contexts. Facilitate closer collaboration with development partners with established presence in FCV settings and expertise in specific areas of the EWS value chain, such as the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), the International Telecommunication Union (ITU), the World Food Programme (WFP), and so on. This will enable the pooling of resources to address targeted issues, allowing for a more effective and holistic approach to addressing diverse needs in FCV settings. Additionally, such collaboration will enhance a more comprehensive and coordinated approach to disaster preparedness and response, ensuring that efforts are streamlined and complementary across all stages of the EWS value chain. Increasing the knowledge surrounding EWS implementation in FCV settings is essential. This entails conducting comprehensive assessments to evaluate the current state of EWS implementation using selected indicators, such as the percentage of the population in FCV settings covered by functional EWS. Additionally, there is a critical need to enhance understanding of the cost-benefit dynamics associated with EWS implementation in FCV contexts, drawing insights from previous cost-benefit analyses of hydromet and early warning implementation (Rogers and Tsirkunov 2011). Furthermore, there is a need to explore the cost of inaction by examining case studies of FCV countries where the absence of robust EWS exacerbated the impact of disasters can provide valuable insights. By leveraging these approaches, stakeholders can develop a nuanced understanding of the effectiveness, feasibility, and potential return on investment of EWS initiatives in FCV settings, thereby guiding strategic decision- making and resource allocation for enhanced disaster preparedness and response capabilities. Appendixes Appendix A: List of Consultations Institution Name Title/ Role Anna-Maria Bogdanova Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist World Bank, GFDRR Vladimir V. Tsirkunov Consultant, Senior Expert in Hydromet and EWS World Bank Alice Soares Consultant, Senior Expert in Meteorology World Bank Arati Belle Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist Senior Specialist: Urban Development & Disaster Risk Management; Global World Bank Ko Takeuchi Partnership for Results-Based Approaches (GPRBA) Program Manager Felipe Meregote Disaster Risk Management / Urban Development Specialist World Bank Hogeun Park Urban Specialist World Bank Claudia Soto Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist World Bank Yunziyi Lang Disaster Risk Management Specialist Swarna Kazi Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist World Bank Ignacio Urrutia Duarte Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist Naraya Carrasco Senior Disaster Risk Management Specialist Noris Viviana Sandoval Sierra Consultant in Disaster Risk Management World Bank Ali Alwahti Consultant in Disaster Risk Management Jean-Noel Degrace Consultant, Expert in Hydromet and EWS World Bank, Development Impact Samuel Fraiberger Data Scientist Evaluation (DIME) Philipp Zimmer Extended Term Consultant in Impact Evaluation Lukas Loeschner Disaster Risk Management Specialist World Bank Disaster Risk Management Senior Water Specialist Specialist UNDRR-WMO Centre of Excellence for Daniela Cuellar Vargas WMO Coordinator, Early Warnings for All initiative Climate and Disaster Resilience International Federation of Red Cross Catalina Jaime Senior Manager at the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) Patrick Blin Task Team Leader for Governance and Disaster Risk Reduction Guillaume Bouveyron Disaster Risk Reduction Global Lead, Climate Change Adaptation Specialist Agence Française de Développement Alisée Pornet Resilience and Vulnerability Global Lead (AFD) Pierre Piccolo Fragility and Conflict Advisor Lauriane Thibaud Task Team Leader Governance and Public Sector Reform 43 Appendix B: Resources on Risk Data Name Description Links Collection of global This is a collection of 134 global and free data sets allowing https://zenodo.org/record/3368882 data sets for the study for spatial (and temporal) analyses of floods, droughts, and of floods, droughts, their interactions with human societies. The data sets are and their interactions structured into seven categories: hydrographic baseline, with human societies hydrological dynamics, hydrological extremes, land cover & agriculture, human presence, water management, and vulnerability. Please refer to Lindersson et al. 2020 for further information about review methodology. Copernicus Emergency GloFAS is the Copernicus Emergency Service system for https://global-flood.emergency.copernicus.eu/general- Management Service global flood awareness, pre-operational since 2011 and information/data-and-services/ Global Flood Awareness fully operational since April 2018. GloFAS forces medium- System (GloFAS) data and extended-range meteorological forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Forecasts Ensemble (ECMWF-ENS) with the LISFLOOD hydrological model (a grid-based hydrological rainfall-runoff-routing model capable of simulating the hydrological processes that occur in a catchment) to provide openly available probabilistic forecasts of upcoming floods up to 30 days for its global river network. Products include GloFAS Forecasts, GloFAS Seasonal Forecasts, GloFAS Impact Forecasts, and GloFAS Global Flood Monitoring (GFM). European Center A subset of ECMWF real-time forecast data is made available https://www.ecmwf.int/en/forecasts/datasets/search for Medium-Range to the public free of charge. Their use is governed by the Weather Forecasts Creative Commons CC-4.0-BY license and the ECMWF Terms of (ECMWF) real-time Use. This means that the data may be redistributed and used forecast data commercially, subject to appropriate attribution. WMO Integrated Developed by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) https://community.wmo.int/en/activity-areas/wmo- Processing and to provide access to a variety of weather data and information integrated-processing-and-prediction-system-wipps Prediction System to countries around the world, including those in fragility, (WIPPS) conflict, and violence (FCV)- settings. WIPPS (formerly known as the Global Data-processing and Forecasting System, GDPFS) is a system that integrates and shares data from different meteorological and hydrological services, allowing for more accurate forecasting and analysis of weather patterns. The platform provides access to various products, including weather forecasts, warnings, and advisories, and satellite imagery and radar data. National Centers The Global Forecast System (GFS) is a National Centers for https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/products/weather-climate- for Environmental Environmental Prediction (NCEP) weather forecast model models/global-forecast Prediction (NCEP) that generates data for dozens of atmospheric and land-soil Global Forecast System variables, including temperatures, winds, precipitation, soil (GFS) moisture, and atmospheric ozone concentration. The system couples four separate models (atmosphere, ocean model, land/soil model, and sea ice) that work together to accurately depict weather conditions. World Bank Risk Data This collection contains data (more than 110 data sets) on https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/int/search/collections/ Library disaster and climate risk assessments curated by the Global rdl Facility for Disaster Reduction and Recovery (GFDRR). 44 Appendix C: Case Studies While the core text highlights specific case studies presented as boxes, this appendix delves into additional case studies that, while equally relevant, did not make it into the main narrative. These case studies offer valuable insights and contribute to a comprehensive understanding of the subject matter. 1. Leveraging existing institutional frameworks in countries affected by conflict and violence: The case of Niger  Region: Africa approach, the World Bank also supports the reinforcement of national institutional capacities and the enhancement of  Country: Niger existing infrastructure to extend coverage to conflict-affected  Hazards addressed: Floods, droughts, heatwaves regions gradually. By strengthening institutional frameworks and leveraging existing capacities, the World Bank aims to bolster the  Current FCV status: Conflict national capacity in establishing functioning, end-to-end EWS, Niger—despite being on the World Bank fragile and conflict- that will be able to provide protection and support to all citizens, affected situations (FCS) list since 2020, mainly due to violences regardless of their location. from non-state armed groups in bordering regions with Burkina Efforts for inclusivity in disaster preparedness and response. Amid Faso, Mali, and Nigeria (Obasi 2023)—possesses functioning the challenges posed by recurrent floods, Niger has demonstrated institutions dedicated to disaster preparedness, including the a commitment to inclusivity in disaster response efforts, National Directorate for Meteorology (Direction de la Météorologie exemplifying a vision where displaced persons (IDPs and refugees) Nationale du Niger); the General Directorate for Water Resources are treated as the same way as citizens. Despite limited resources, (Direction Générale des Ressources en Eau); a national coordination significant strides have been made in preparedness initiatives unit for early warning systems (EWS) (Cellule de Coordination for the flood season. This includes extensive communication, du Système d’Alerte Précoce); the General Directorate of Civil awareness-raising campaigns using local languages, and proactive Protection under the Ministry of Interior and Public Security; and dissemination of early warnings through groups of women leaders a ministry dedicated to DRM (Ministère de l’Action Humanitaire et trained in disaster risk management (DRM), coupled with swift de la Gestion des Catastrophes) (IFRC 2022). action based on the received alerts. Central to Niger’s approach To navigate this complex landscape, the World Bank, through its is the integration of community-based groups in the EWS value engagement on the Niger Disaster Risk Management and Urban chain, where both displaced and non-displaced individuals are Development (P145268), coupled with the Climate Risk and treated with parity. However, challenges persist in predicting the Early Warning Systems (CREWS) and the Niger Integrated Urban impact of extreme weather events on people, as well as ensuring Development and Multi-sectoral Resilience Project (P175857), is full participation, particularly concerning women’s involvement in adopting a flexible approach, conducting thorough assessments public and economic spheres. Despite these obstacles, concerted of security risks before engagement. In instances where the risk efforts have been undertaken to empower women and encourage is deemed prohibitive, interventions are strategically redirected their leadership roles within these community groups, recognizing to less volatile regions to ensure the safety of personnel and the the vital role they play in disaster preparedness and response. viability of hydromet infrastructure investments. Nevertheless, while prioritizing security considerations in a pragmatic 45 2. Supporting Bangladesh’s institutional resilience amid the Rohingya crisis  Region: South Asia messaging strategies in response to reduced shelter availability. This example underscores the importance of urgent financing to  Country: Bangladesh address the pressing needs arising from crises.  Hazards addressed: Fires, cyclones, floods and flash Furthermore, the World Bank deployed a technical assistance floods, landslides, storms, and high winds to adapt messages and preparedness plans to the language and  Current FCV status: Fragility culture of Rohingya refugees, as well as updating the changing availability of shelters. Efforts were also focused on bolstering Bangladesh has long been recognized for its robust disaster response capacities, including support to the Fire Service and preparedness and EWS, even extending to areas accommodating Civil Defense with firefighting and search and rescue equipment displaced populations with the aid of a dedicated network of to enhance the government’s ability to handle new emergency volunteers facilitating evacuation messaging. However, the influx situations, such as fires in refugee camps. International technical of Rohingya refugees since August 2017 has strained this system, and financial partners played a crucial role, with the UN assisting prompting urgent efforts to adapt and fortify it to include the the government of Bangladesh in areas where it lacked expertise— Rohingya community: over 960,000 Rohingya refugees are living in such as incorporating gender considerations into response Bangladesh, with a majority settled in and around refugee camps efforts—while the World Bank leveraged its financing capacities in Bangladesh’s Cox’s Bazar region—some of the largest and most to fund large-scale infrastructure projects such as multi-purpose densely populated camps in the world according to the UNHCR cyclone shelters. (UNHCR 2023). This collaborative approach between the government and its Through several financings, including the Emergency Multi-Sector international partners is crucial to navigate the refugee crisis in Rohingya Crisis Response Project (P167762), the World Bank, in terms of preparedness and response to disasters. Furthermore, the partnership with UN agencies and the International Federation FCV-sensitive approach adopted by the government through its of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC), have swiftly decision to integrate FCV considerations into disaster preparation mobilized to ramp up their support, recognizing the critical need planning, including through the preemptive relocation of refugee to prevent the system from collapsing under the added pressure. populations to shelters ahead of disaster events, allowed for the Initiatives include expanding volunteer programs to incorporate mitigation of certain risks and prevention of further displacement. Rohingya participants in message dissemination and adjusting 3. A regional approach to observation, monitoring, and forecasting in West Africa (CREWS project)  Region: Africa (1) upgrading observation networks and infrastructure, (2) improving data processing and forecasting systems, (3) enhancing  Country: regional (West Africa) communication and dissemination of weather information, and  Hazard addressed: Floods and flash floods, heatwaves, (4) strengthening institutional and human capacity. By building storms these components, the project aims to ensure that NMHSs have access to the best available data, models, and tools to produce  Current FCV status: Fragility accurate and timely weather forecasts and warnings that can The National Early Warning Systems in West Africa project help to reduce the impact of weather-related disasters. One of aims to strengthen the capacity of the National Meteorological the key features of the project is the use of a regional approach and Hydrological Services (NMHS) of West African countries to to weather data collection and analysis. By sharing weather provide timely and reliable weather forecasts, warnings, and data and information across borders and working together to advice to communities and decision-makers (CREWS 2020a). develop common procedures and standards, the NMHSs in West The project is funded by CREWS, implemented by the World Africa can benefit from economies of scale and avoid duplicating Meteorological Organization (WMO), and executed by national and efforts. This is particularly important for the fragile and conflict- regional partners. The project focuses on four key components: affected countries of the region, where resources are limited and 46 cooperation across borders can be difficult due to political and of reference. Technical partnerships have been facilitated and security challenges. The project also emphasizes the involvement signed with the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, the of communities and other stakeholders in the design and German Meteorological Service, the University of Reading in the implementation of early warning systems to ensure that warnings United Kingdom, the International Research Institute for Climate are understandable, relevant, and actionable. & Society at the Earth Institute/Columbia University, and the US Hydrologic Research Center. Looking more specifically at Burkina The CREWS National Early Warning Systems in West Africa Faso, 242 weather stations were added to WMO’s online repository project has already shown promising results, with participating for metadata on surface meteorological and climatological countries reporting improved accuracy and timeliness of weather observations (OSCAR/Surface) (CREWS 2021). Sharing these data forecasts and warnings. In particular, a community of practice with the rest of the world will lead to more accurate forecasting has been set up for countries and regional institutions to ensure skills in Burkina Faso and globally. a harmonized approach to supporting warning services, for sharing ideas, good practices, technical specifications, and terms 4. Integrating disaster preparedness into sectors: Lessons from Honduras  Region: Latin America and the Caribbean and a deficit in protocols, plans, and funds for preemptive measures. Many individuals either did not receive warnings or  Country: Honduras evacuation assistance or were reluctant to leave. The flooding  Hazard addressed: Tropical storms disproportionately impacted some of Honduras’s most violent regions, where fears of robbery deterred people from evacuating  Current FCV status: Fragility and violence their homes ahead of the disaster. In November 2020, Honduras faced a devastating blow from Likewise, significant gaps in information management systems Tropical Storms Eta and Iota (IFRC Climate Centre 2023). The and DRM measures are seen across key thematic areas, including Tropical Storms occurred amid a period of significant challenges food security, agriculture, health, migration, and violence. This for Honduras. The country was contending with the COVID-19 disconnect hindered the ability to predict and respond effectively pandemic and its economic repercussions, recovering from a to the disasters, amplifying their impacts. Furthermore, prolonged drought, and combatting the most severe dengue the storms exacerbated existing FCV conditions, leading to outbreak in decades. Additionally, Honduras faces pervasive widespread displacement and exacerbating vulnerabilities. The violence, including street gang–related activity, drug trafficking, lack of integrated contingency planning in key sectors of the international organized crime, gender-based violence (GBV), state economy further compounded the challenges faced by affected violence, and political repression. This convergence of crises communities. Had disaster preparedness been mainstreamed culminated in a complex humanitarian situation. In addition into broader development programs and strategies, including to causing the death of nearly 100 people, Tropical Storms Eta contingency planning in sectors such as agriculture and health, the and Iota wreaked havoc across Honduras, causing widespread country might have been better equipped to mitigate the impacts devastation to infrastructure, homes, and agricultural lands. 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Program Appraisal Document. https:// documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/328661553004113498/ pdf/Mozambique-Disaster-Risk-Management-and-Resilience- Program-Project.pdf 54 About the Disaster-FCV Nexus Thematic Area at GFDRR: In a world grappling with multiple crises, addressing the complex challenges at the intersection of disasters in Fragile, Conflict, and Violence (FCV) settings is more crucial than ever. Recognizing this urgency, GFDRR has launched its pioneering Disaster-FCV Nexus Thematic Area in 2018. This initiative provides operational support, strategic guidance, and global public goods, leverages development finance to enhance disaster resilience in FCV environments, and produces original analytics to deepen our understanding of the compounding effects of FCV and disasters. About the Hydromet Services and Early Warning Systems Thematic Area at GFDRR: Hydrometeorological information and Early Warning Systems (EWS) are essential for safeguarding communities against natural disasters and enhancing the productivity of weather-reliant industries. Nevertheless, the intensifying effects of climate change are threatening the reliability of this critical information. Moreover, the underinvestment in National Meteorological and Hydrological Services (NMHSs) has led to subpar services that fail to meet fundamental societal needs. To address these challenges, the GFDRR Hydromet services and Early Warning Systems Thematic Area was created in 2011, to support client countries improve their hydromet, climate, and early-warning services by upgrading technological systems that gather, analyze, and produce hydromet data, and the provision of training on how best to share and use that knowledge for decision-making purposes. 55