WATER GLOBAL PRACTICE JUNE 2021 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel ii Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Standard Disclaimer: This volume is a product of the staff of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development/The World Bank. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. The boundaries, colors, denominations, and other information shown on any map in this work do not imply any judgment on the part of The World Bank concerning the legal status of any territory or the endorsement or acceptance of such boundaries. Copyright Statement: The material in this publication is copyrighted. 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Acknowledgments This report was prepared by Laura Bonzanigo (Water Resources Management Specialist), Sanjay Pahuja (Lead Water Resources Management Specialist), Clementine Stip (Analyst), Cecilia Borgia (Consultant), Mohamed Nanzoul (Senior Infrastructure Specialist) of the World Bank Water Global Practice and Corey Pattison (Social Protection Specialist). Additional advice, strategic guidance, and general direction was provided by Yogita Mumssen, Farouk Mollah Banna, Pierre Bonneau, Claire Kfouri, Eileen Burke, Ellysar Baroudy, Odete Muximpua, Anders Jagerskog Pierrick Fraval, Dominick de Waal, Caroline Plante, Christina Leb, Nicolas Perrin, Richard Abdulnour, Georges Comair, Ousmane Yaya- Bocoum, Francois Bertone, Catherine Defontaine, Emilie Jourdan, and Chantal Richey.The team also wishes to thank the government representatives and institutions from the G5 Sahel countries who provided information and inputs essential to the drafting of this report. This work was co-funded by the World Bank and the Cooperation in International Waters in Africa (CIWA). Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel iii Table of Contents FOREWORD vii IMPORTANCE OF WATER SECURITY FOR G5 SAHEL  I.  1 I.1. A two-tier approach to water security in the G5 Sahel region 2 I.2. Water as a foundational resource for socio-economic development 2 Low access to basic water supply and sanitation services hinders human well-being and I.2.1.  development, particularly in the rural areas 2 Improving water use in agriculture is critical for improving productivity and sustaining food security  6 I.2.2.  I.2.3.  Pastoralists, key water users often neglected in national and regional water policies  9 I.2.4.  Transboundary waters sustain much of the economic activities in this region 11 I.3. Water as a critical element for improving stability and security in the region 12 I.3.1.  Water insecurity induced migration and pressure on resources in host communities 14 Diverting pastoralist routes leading to encroachment into cropped areas and ensuing conflicts I.3.2.  between farmers and herders 15 I.3.3.  Increasing marginalization and weakening citizens’ trust in the state 17 I.3.4. Ensuring a do-no-harm intervention 18 I.3.4  Climate change could further increase tensions between different water users 18 I.4. Improving water security by increasing storage is essential for the resilience of the G5 Sahel population to climate variability and change  19 I.5.  What have we learned from WB experience in the G5 Sahel?  21 II. FORWARD LOOK 27 II.1. 14 Guiding Principles for a Regional Program on Water Security in the G5 Sahel 27 iv Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel List of Tables Table 1 Area equipped for irrigation, actual irrigated area, and irrigation potential  7 List of Figures Figure 1 Regional comparison of renewable water resources available per capita in G5 Sahel countries  3 Figure 2 Evolution of population growth vs. water stress (2011-2015-2020) 4 Figure 3 Conceptual framework of water security and its links with fragility and conflict in the G5 Sahel 5 Figure 4 Desertification vulnerability of Africa 9 Figure 5 Estimated average biomass production over the 1998-2010 period 10 Figure 6 Summary of national and transborder herd movements and commercial cattle trade channels 11  conomic Dependence on Water Resources by Transboundary River Basin in the G5 countries. Figure 7 E Based on economic activities located inside the basin.  12 Figure 8 Conflict-affected and prevention areas in the G5 Sahel region (December2020) 13 Figure 9 Pastoral farming in the Sahel (August 2019) 16 Figure 10 Average rainfall (mm) in G5 Sahel (estimated, 2000-2010) 20  patial repartition of WBG portfolio mapping and conflict/prevention area in 2020, by key water Figure 11 S and water-related sectors (the database is not yet complete) 23 Figure 12 Problem-driven vs. IWRM Approach 24 Figure 13 Summary of the Guiding Principles and “Theory of Change” of their impacts on regional stability 28 List of Boxes Box 1 Hotspots of agropastoral tensions are present in all countries of the G5 Sahel.  17 Box 2 Examples of close relationship between the increase in resources and the consequent increase in tensions  19  roundwater, a strategic resource for G5 Sahel countries that calls for strengthening knowledge Box 3 G and governance.  21  he Volta Basin: an example of effective bilateral coordination: the management of the Bagré and Box 4 T Akosombo dams 26  ield-Level Leadership: leverages the motivation and behavior of public agency staff as a means to Box 5 F improve performance of water agencies 31  he integrated territorial approach in practice: the North & North-eastern Development Initiative (NEDI) Box 6 T and the Integrated Landscape Management approach piloted in Tunisia 33  he Niger Integrated Water Security Platform Project (P174414) spearheading the water security Box 7 T agenda in the region. 40 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel v Acronyms ALG Liptako-Gourma Authority NEDI North and North Eastern Development Initiative ASA Advisory Services and Analytics OMVS Senegal River Basin Organization CILSS Permanent Interstate Committee for drought control in the Sahel PANGIRE National Water Resources Action Plan CMU Country Management Unit PGIRE Senegal River Basin CNRE Centre National des Ressources en Multi-Purpose Water Resources Eau Development Project ECOWAS Economic Community of West PRAPS Regional Sahel Pastoralism African States Support Project ECOWAS RAHC ECOWAS Regional Animal Health RBO River Basin Organization Centre  SIIP Sahel Irrigation Initiative Project FAO Food and Agriculture Organization SMAB Senegal-Mauritanian Aquifer Basin FCS Fragile and Conflict-Affected Situ- ations SLWM Sustainable Land and Water Management FCV Fragile, Conflict, and Violence TLU Tropical Livestock Unit FLL Field-Level Leadership TTL Task Team Leader FSRP Food System Resilience Program UN United Nations GDP Gross Domestic Product UNDP United Nations GEMS geo-capacitation method Development Program GP Guiding Principle VBA Volta Basin Authority ITA Integrated Territorial Approach WAEMU West African Economic and IWRM Integrated Water Resources Man- Monetary Union agement WALP Water for Agro-pastoral IWSPP Integrated Water Security Platform Productivity and Resilience Project WARP Water for Agropastoral Livelihoods LDC Least Developed Country Pilot Project MNA Middle East North Africa WBG World Bank Group MW Mega-Watts WiCER Water in Circular Economy and NBA Niger Basin Authority Resilience WSS Water Supply and Sanitation vi Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel vii FOREWORD 1. The World Bank’s historical engagement in water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, transboundary water in West Africa is at a turning coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks point, at a time when the G5 Sahel region faces to people, environments and economies.4 Water security unprecedented challenges. The G5 Sahel consists of in the G5 Sahel, as explained later in this note, directly Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger.1 Over contributes to supporting socio-economic development, the past 20 years, World Bank regional water projects improving stability and security, and reducing in West Africa have focused on transboundary water environmental migration. In this context, a water security cooperation and management, informed largely by framework applied at different interconnected scales, an integrated water resources management (IWRM) from local to national to regional, is a more appropriate approach and working through River Basin Organizations entry point to address these challenges than a river-and- (RBOs) as natural counterparts. A recently completed RBO-centric perspective. It expands the scope of water retrospective of this engagement indicates mixed interventions to (i) encompass the whole spectrum of results.2 While several tangible and intangible results water resources, including groundwater (shallow and have been achieved, particularly in the Senegal and deep), river (permanent and seasonal), rain and runoff, Niger river basins, it has become clear that given the instead of focusing solely on transboundary river basins; challenges faced by the G5 Sahel countries, a more (ii) better integrate multiple water uses (urban and rural comprehensive intervention paradigm is needed. These water supply and sanitation [WSS], irrigation, rainfed challenges include natural resources degradation, farming, pastoralism, fisheries...) and (iii) address broader expanding fragility, rapid population growth, and climate questions of fragility and conflict. change – which in turn exacerbate conflicts around access to resources, including water – a self-reinforcing 3. The dual objectives of this report on the G5 Sahel downward spiral that must be urgently addressed to region are to (i) do a high-level analysis of water achieve G5 Sahel’s development priorities. Moreover, security challenges and their impacts on regional water is largely absent in regional development socio-economic development and stability and (ii) strategies, possibly because since to date, no regional suggest directions for future World Bank engagement evaluation exists of the key role that water (security) on regional water security. The focus of this note is plays for the socio-economic development, resilience, more exclusively on regional water challenges and local and security of the G5 Sahel. This reflection is the key challenges with cross-border5 or even regional spill- theme of this study. over effects. The report takes a development-driven approach to (i) identify some of the ways in which water 2. Therefore, it is time for the World Bank to broaden security affects socio-economic development in the G5 its water sector approach in the G5 Sahel and shift Sahel, ii) explore the linkages between water security, its focus to establishing a regional water security resilience and conflict prevention and (iii) propose a set framework. As the two remaining transboundary water of guiding principles for the next regional engagements projects3 are coming to an end, it is time to revisit the on water security in the region, both in terms of types of strategy for the next phase of World Bank engagement investment and implementation modalities. This report in this space in the G5 Sahel. We find ourselves at a will also serve as a basis for deepening the dialogue with critical juncture to strategize on how to effectively counterparts in the next fiscal year. improve water security as a means to boost socio- economic development and reduce fragility and conflict 4. Methodology. A rapid review was conducted from in the G5 Sahel countries. Water security is defined here January to May 2021. Given the timeframe and budget, as the availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of the ASA included a high-level scoping of issues, and did 1 The G5 Sahel consists of Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. The institutional platform of the G5 Sahel was established in 2014 to improve the coordination of regional cooperation regarding development policies and security matters in West Africa. 2 World Bank, 2021. World Bank Engagement In Transboundary Water In West Africa - Retrospective And Lessons Learned – therein referred to as “The Retrospective”. 3 Senegal River Basin Multi-Purpose Water Resources Development Project (PGIRE2, P131323) in the Senegal River Basin, with OMVS; and the Kandadji project on the Niger River (P172724). 4 Grey, D., Sadoff, C.W., 2007. Sink or Swim, Water Security for Growth and Development. Water Policy 9, 545–571. 5 By cross-border it is meant involving at least one border, including challenges that are felt and dealt with by two sub-national entities across the border. viii Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel not produce any new data but focused on taking stock implementation arrangements in fragile areas with the of the current state of the G5 Sahel region in terms of Program Manager of GIZ Support to the Kofi Annan water security, identifying key gaps and challenges based International Peacekeeping Training Centre and UNDP on on-going work in the region, and recommending Mali. Given COVID19 travel restrictions, the team was options for our future engagement. Given the time not able to carry out field missions. constraints, the note focuses more on the agriculture, livestock, ecosystem, and domestic water use sectors, 5. Structure of the report. The report first contextualizes and only touched tangentially others, such as transport water security in the G5 Sahel by analyzing the links and energy. The team, itself involved in the majority between water, socio-economic development, and of regional and national projects and initiatives,6 has stability – I-IMPORTANCE OF WATER SECURITY exchanged with different regional and national clients, FOR THE G5 SAHEL. It then presents several guiding with the relevant Country Management Units (CMUs), principles and investment opportunities for the next and with several colleagues from both water and regional water engagement in the G5 Sahel – II- other sectors and with experience in FCV contexts and FORWARD LOOK. water security.7 The team also discussed potential 6 Amongst others: Regional operations: Senegal River Basin Multi-Purpose Water Resources Development Project (P131323, P131353, P153863), Sahel Irrigation Initiative Project (SIIP,P154482) , the engagements in the Niger River Basin (including recently, the CIWA-funded Niger Basin Support Management Project (P149714) and the Kandadji project P172724); West Africa Food System Resilience Program (FSRP, P172769, under preparation); National operations: Niger Integrated Water Security Platform Project (Niger-IWSPP,under preparation, P174414); ALBIÄ - Chad Local Development and Adaptation Project (P171611) and Mauritania Water and Sanitation Sectoral Project (P167328, the first national water project in Mauritania in more than a decade) in FY21; CIWA Improving Water Resources Management in West and Central Sahel (P173152), including ASAs on Water security in Burkina Faso (P174857) and Strengthening Water Security in Senegal for Greater Resilience (P172233), and the ASA on groundwater in the Sahel; outputs of CIWA-funded Niger Basin Support ASA (P148889). 7 Including task teams of Regional Sahel Pastoralism Support Project (PRAPS, Agricultural Global Practice), Three Borders Project (Social Global Practice), Somalia Water Engagement and Kandadji project (Water Global Practice, and MNA FCV Focal point (Water Global Practice), High and Dry report’s team. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 1 IMPORTANCE OF WATER SECURITY I.  FOR G5 SAHEL 6. Water is the backbone of the fragile socio-economic depends largely on rainfall, which is scant, has unimodal development in the G5 Sahel and its insecurity fuels distribution with a long dry season and is subject to wide instability in the region. Extreme poverty is pervasive inter-year and multi-decadal variations underpinning in the Sahel, and the G5 Sahel countries rank low on the big droughts witnessed in the last century. Even almost all the human development indicators. All the where water is available, human, institutional, and G5 Sahel countries are classified by the United Nations financial capital limit access to water despite its physical as least developed countries (LDCs) and among the availability. Lack of investments, weak institutional 40 poorest countries in the world in terms of GDP per capacity, lack of maintenance, and inequal water capita. Furthermore, the Human Capital Index, which distribution, all hinder the actual use of this resource for quantifies the contribution of health and education both consumptive and productive uses — and in turn, to the productivity of the next generation of workers, hamper socio-economic development of the region. As shows that all five countries are in the bottom 40 (out a result, a large share of the population is today water of 157) - with four in the bottom 20. The livelihoods insecure. and economies of the largely rural Sahelian population, mostly family and subsistence farmers and nomadic or 8. Moreover, high rates of population growth will half semi-nomadic herders, are highly dependent on water. the current renewable water resources available per In dry and poor countries like those of the G5 Sahel, such capita in the next twenty years and climate change is dependence creates a high degree of vulnerability to expected to further exacerbate variability. The total structural changes — in particular to rapid population population in the region is projected to almost double growth and rising water demands, climate change, by 2040, with a largely young population (47 percent of and management challenges such as groundwater the population is under 15 in 2018) due to their stage overexploitation, environmental degradation, and water in the demographic transition (low life expectancy and resources’ pollution. These trends increase overall high fertility rates, with Niger the highest in the world).9 vulnerability as well intensify conflict and fragility in the The expected doubling of the Sahelian population from Sahel and, in some cases, even play a role in driving it; 86m to 173m by 204010 will, alone, bring four of the five for example, in certain cases of farmer-herder conflict. G5 countries in a water stressed status, with Burkina Water insecurity constrains food production, nutrition, falling below the absolute water scarcity threshold and health as well as opportunities for education, work, (Figure 1b). Due to climate change, despite all related and improved livelihoods. uncertainties on its actual manifestations, it is likely that spatial and temporal variability will also increase, 7. Today in the G5 Sahel, while at the national level further exacerbating the water insecurity of Sahelian annual renewable water availability is sufficient for populations. Figure 2 already shows a trend of increasing socio-economic needs, the large spatial and temporal population in areas already water stressed. variations of water resources, together with structural constraints, mean that large portions of the population 9. Therefore, achieving regional water security in these countries face extreme water insecurity. As today - harnessing the productive potential of water, Figure 1a shows, according to the FAO, only Burkina providing for basic human needs, and limiting its Faso and Niger are experiencing frequent water stress destructive impact – while ensuring resilience under a periods. Nevertheless, these estimates — which a changing climate and other changes, needs to become recent study on water security in Senegal also found to a societal priority. be overoptimistic8 - mask a large spatial and temporal variability of water resources. In reality, only a fraction of the population has access to permanent rivers, the rest 8 Under the Strengthening Water Security in Senegal for Greater Resilience (P172233), the team — based on the most recent literature available and a review of the data in AQUASTAT - estimated the total annual renewable water resources at 1451 m3/yr/capita when AQUASTAT indicated 2459m3/yr/capita — a 40 percent difference. 9 Ibid. 10 UNDESA, Population Division (2018). World Urbanisation Prospects: The 2018 Revision, Online Edition 2 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel fueling tensions and conflict. Figure 3 conceptualizes I.1. A two-tier approach to water the framework of the analysis guiding this Chapter I, that explains these two dimensions and their security in the G5 Sahel region interconnectedness with regional instability. 10. Framing water security in terms of both local and regional challenges allows to broaden the scope of I.2. Water as a foundational transboundary cooperation and keep it moving on various tracks according to the appropriate scale for resource for socio-economic specific problems. Local water challenges with cross- border impact are paralleled by regional water challenges development that imply outright hydraulic interconnectedness and usually revolve around the main transboundary rivers. 11. This section explores the importance of water for In the Sahel, rural areas tend to concentrate water- human development and for the main water-dependent dependent livelihoods, low access to water services, and economic sectors in the region — agriculture and host the poorer and most vulnerable segments of the livestock — and the contribution of transboundary water population, who are more exposed to environmental to the region’s economy and access to basic services. migration, agropastoral tensions, and exclusion and marginalization — all potentially causing cross-border impacts. For instance, more frequent droughts and Low access to basic water supply and I.2.1.  increasingly destructive floods resulting from climate sanitation services hinders human well- change are disrupting water and food supply, causing fatalities, and leading to gradual long-term out- being and development, particularly in the migration. Today, in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger, 2.4 rural areas million people — largely rural - are struggling with food insecurity while the prevalence of stunting in children 12. About forty percent of the population in G5 under five is as high as 49 percent in Niger.11 Lack Sahel still lacks basic access to water supply12 of grass for animal feed and water shortages make and close to eighty percent do not have access to pastoralists migrate earlier toward agricultural areas, improved sanitation,13 hindering human well-being often located along permanent water courses, creating and development. Safely managed WSS services are tensions with farmers. Therefore, it is important to indispensable components of human capital, as they tackle water insecurity at a more local level to reduce contribute to raising living standards, good health, and these cross-border impacts. At the same time, these high labor productivity.14,15, As a result of low levels of challenges are compounded at a more regional level by access and low quality of service, diarrheal diseases and the development of large transboundary infrastructure, other communicable diseases are the leading causes growing unregulated water abstractions by large of mortality among children under five years of age,16 water users such as capital cities and mega irrigation and in 2016 annual mortality rates attributed to unsafe schemes, and pollution from mining and poor sanitation water, unsafe sanitation and lack of hygiene were 39 in large urban centers. If not properly managed, these per 100,000 people in Mauritania, 50 in Burkina Faso, factors can lead to an unequal sharing of benefits, 71 in Niger and Mali, and 101 in Chad,17 almost all above negative environmental impacts, and also contribute to the Sub-Saharan African average of 47.18 Lack of access 11 WDI, 2020. Human Development Index. 12 Progress on drinking water, sanitation and hygiene: 2017 update and SDG baselines. Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), 2017. Access numbers are as follows: Burkina Faso – access to basic water 47.89 percent, basic sanitation 19.40 percent and basic hygiene 11.88percent; Chad – access to basic water 38.7 percent, basic sanitation 8.34 percent and basic hygiene 5.82 percent; Mali – access to basic water 78.26 percent, safely managed sanitation 18.71 percent, and basic hygiene 52.23 percent; Mauritania – access to basic water 70.70 percent, basic sanitation 48.44 percent and basic hygiene 43 percent; Niger – access to basic water 50.27 percent, safely managed sanitation 9.6 percent. 13 Kwasi, S., Cilliers, J., Donnenfeld, Z., Welborn, L., Maïga, I., 2019. Prospects for the G5 Sahel Countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. 14 RWSN, 2010. Myths of the Rural Water Supply Sector. Perspectives No 4. 15 Sadoff, C.W., Borgomeo, E., de Waal, D., 2017. Turbulent Waters: Pursuing Water Security in Fragile Contexts. Washington, DC, World Bank. 16 Kwasi, S., Cilliers, J., Donnenfeld, Z., Welborn, L., Maïga, I., 2019. Prospects for the G5 Sahel Countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. 17 WHO, 2016. Global Health Observatory Data Repository, 2016. 18 https://data.worldbank.org/indicator/SH.STA.WASH.P5?locations=ZG Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 3 Figure 1 Regional comparison of renewable water resources available per capita in G5 Sahel countries 7,000 6,000 5,000 m3/pp/year 4,000 3,000 2,000 Water Stress Threshold* 1,000 Absolute Water Scarcity Threshold* 0 2018 2040 Mali Mauritania Niger Burkina-Faso Chad Source: FAO AQUASTAT, 2019 to safe water and sanitation negatively affects human 14. Unprecedented urbanization, compounded by development, sometimes irreversibly, and causes climate change and rapid population growth, will stunting, which reduces the labor force available for further challenge WSS service provision. In the G5 sustaining people and the economy. At thirty percent, Sahel, large urban centers are located both on riverbanks the rate of stunting in the region is about five percentage (Bamako, Niamey) and further away but rely on long- points higher than the average for other low-income distance transfers from shared rivers (e.g. Ouagadougou, African countries.19 Dakar, Nouakchott). While today urbanization rates are currently low,21 hampering access to services, 13. The impacts of poor WSS services are felt acutely rapid population growth combined with instability and in rural areas, where the majority of the population climate change will accelerate urban growth by driving resides. Rural areas in the G5 Sahel consistently show people towards cities. Indeed, the influx of migrants lower access levels to water supply, sanitation and from conflict and degradation of rural environments hygiene services. In rural Chad, access to basic water is expected to increase in the near future and put services falls just below 30 percent, against almost additional pressure on already fragile water services in 70 percent in urban areas.20 Sanitation numbers are host communities (see Paragraph 31). In Burkina Faso, even more dire, with under 2 percent access to basic just over 30 percent of the population currently lives in sanitation in rural areas against 30 percent in urban cities, and the urbanization rate is expected to pass the areas, and hygiene at 2.3 percent and 18 percent 50 percent mark by 2050.22 Population is expected to respectively. rise particularly in secondary cities, where in addition to population from rural areas, a growing urban middle 19 Kwasi, S., Cilliers, J., Donnenfeld, Z., Welborn, L., Maïga, I., 2019. Prospects for the G5 Sahel Countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. 20 Progress on drinking water, sanitation and hygiene: 2017 update and SDG baselines. Geneva: World Health Organization (WHO) and the United Nations Children’s Fund (UNICEF), 2017. 21 Kwasi, S., Cilliers, J., Donnenfeld, Z., Welborn, L., Maïga, I., 2019. Prospects for the G5 Sahel Countries to 2040. Institute for Security Studies. 22 UNFPA. Monographic Study on Demography, Peace, And Security in The Sahel: Case of Burkina Faso. 4 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Figure 2 Evolution of population growth vs. water stress (2011-2015-2020) Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 5 Figure 3 Conceptual framework of water security and its links with fragility and conflict in the G5 Sahel Water is the backbone of the fragile socio-economic development in the G5 Sahel and its insecurity fuels instability in the region. Environmental Pressure on migration host communities Local water insecurity Pastoral encroachment Lack of access to basic services of farmland Low agricultural productivity Lack of access to water for farming and pastoralism Degradation of grazing land Exclusion/ Low accountability/ Regional/ Deforestation and marginalization trust cross-border ecosystem degradation Insecurity and Instability Tensions/conflict Water insecurity multipliers Recruitment by Regional water insecurity Resource degradation Demographic growth terrorists/bandits Increasing water Climate change Uncoordinated development and demand and variability use of shared water resources Pollution (mining, sanitation) Lack of coordination on pastoral Unequal sharing Negative social and routes/water points of benefits environmental impacts Regional and National institutional weakness class with a higher water-footprint will substantially 15. Poor quality of sanitation and water treatment increase water demands, putting pressure on already services is also a significant source of pollution, with poor water services. As cities are not equipped with the repercussions on public health and the environment, urban planning mechanisms to successfully meet this and significant economic costs. Low coverage sanitation growing water demand, and climate change impacts and poor water treatment infrastructure in urban areas, the availability and reliability of water resources, a lead to untreated wastewater and fecal sludge discharge larger urban water deficit is likely to develop. As water to the environment, polluting aquifers and rivers. In availability decreases and becomes more unreliable, Ouagadougou, 64 percent of fecal sludge is not safely and cities grow, urban water security will depend on managed.23 Urban service providers bring services of expanding beyond an access-focused approach towards mixed quality, which challenges cost recovery and their the delivery of resilient and inclusive services that make ability to repair and expand infrastructure. In Niger, the the most of existing infrastructure, managing demands, economic losses from inadequate WSS are estimated improving efficiency, designing out waste and pollution to amount to more than 10 percent of the country’s through efficiency and resource recovery, and the GDP (2010 estimates).24 In Bamako, faecal sludge is regeneration of natural systems and closing the water being discharged straight into the Niger river without services cycle. any treatment. Safely managed water and sanitation services are also essential in preventing disease and protecting human health during outbreaks of infectious 23 https://www.susana.org/_resources/documents/default/3-3471-7-1541610165.pdf 24 Sadoff, C.W., Hall, J.W., Grey, D., Aerts, J.C.J.H., Ait-Kadi, M., Brown, C., Cox, A., Dadson, S., Garrick, D., Kelman, J., McCornick, P., Ringler, C., Rosegrant, M., Whittington, D., Wiberg, D., 2015. Securing Water, Sustaining Growth: Report of the GWP/OECD Task Force on Water Security and Sustainable Growth, University of Oxford, UK, 180pp. 6 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel diseases, including the current COVID-19 pandemic. of the irrigated area depends on (transboundary) rivers As quickly urbanizing cities struggle to cope with their like the Niger and the Senegal rivers, with groundwater rapidly growing populations, pollution from untreated irrigating less than 15percent of the total irrigated lands29. wastewater and poorly managed solid waste dragged into The remaining 35 million hectares are rainfed, with waterways will continue to increase, while the developing large scope to improve yields. Improving water use in industrial and mining sectors are also likely to impair agriculture, both irrigated and rainfed, could contribute to the quality of water resources. Artisanal gold mining, for stabilizing and increasing food production to respond to a example, is an important economic contributor throughout rapidly growing food demand.30 the G5 Sahel25 and is known to have dire impacts on nearby water quality. 18. Considering the high costs of irrigation in the Sahel and the large potential to significantly increase rainfed crops yields, investing in both irrigated and rainfed Improving water use in agriculture is I.2.2.  input intensification offers the largest potential critical for improving productivity and gains31 over investing in irrigation alone. Irrigation costs in Sub-Saharan Africa are among the highest in the sustaining food security world with average irrigation-related total unit project costs at US$ 11,800/ha compared to US$ 3900/ha for 16. Agriculture accounts for the lion’s share of water projects outside of Sub-Saharan Africa.32 Moreover, the abstractions and contributes most to national GDP and maintenance of irrigation systems is at times prohibitive employment in all G5 Sahel countries. In the G5 Sahel, for farmers. Mauritanian farmers along the Senegal agriculture is the largest water user, with agricultural River Valley are abandoning irrigated rice as irrigation withdrawals accounting for between 51 percent (in schemes are gradually falling into disrepair given their Burkina Faso) to 97 percent (in Mali) of total water maintenance costs, which are superior to the marginal withdrawals26 With 36 million hectares cultivated (~10% gains from irrigated rice.33 Similarly, a modelling study of the total surface), the agriculture sector contributes focused on the Niger basin demonstrated small marginal between 30 and 40 percent of national GDP; it accounts yield gains between intensified rainfed and irrigated for a staggering 25 percent of total employment in farming which would not encourage the shift to costly Burkina Faso, 50 in Mauritania, 68 in Mali, 75 in Niger27 irrigation practices.34 This comparison, however, only and 80 in Chad. Agriculture absorbs 12 and 11 percent of applies to newly developed irrigation schemes, while national budgets in Mali and Burkina Faso, respectively.28 much is to gain from rehabilitating or retrofitting existing schemes (as pointed out in Paragraph 19). Therefore, 17. Agricultural production in the G5 Sahel, with less in a context of limited national budget, irrigation than 40 percent of irrigation potential developed, is extension should be carefully considered, while there still largely reliant on scarce and increasingly variable is much scope to increase the productivity of rainfed and unreliable rainfall. Today, 38 percent of the irrigation farmland. For instance, there is large untapped potential potential has been developed, but only half of the area to capture a much bigger portion of rain and runoff for equipped for irrigation is actually irrigated (Table 1). Most rainfed agriculture. In these rainfed areas, effective 25 https://www.cipe.org/blog/2020/07/27/a-pivotal-moment-to-regulate-artisanal-gold-mining-in-burkina-faso/ 26 FAO AQUASTAT, 2018. Accessed June 2021. Agricultural water withdrawal as % of total water withdrawal for the Chad, Mauritania, and Niger are respectively 76, 90, 87 percent. 27 Covid-19 Pandemic: Impact of restriction measures In West Africa. ECOWAS/UN-ECA/WFP/CERFAM. 28 World Development Indicators database 29 Analyse des opportunités de développement de l’irrigation au Sahel à partir des eaux souterraines. World Bank, Working Document, 2016. 30 According to FAO AQUASTAT, out of the 75.5 million hectares of arable land in West Africa, only 1.2percent (917,000 ha) is developed for irrigation, and 0.8percent (635,000 ha) is used effectively. Future developments of irrigation will largely depend on transboundary waters, both surface and groundwater. 31 Van Der Wijngaart, R., Helming, J., Jacobs, C., Garzon Delvaux, P.A., Hoek, S. and Gomez y Paloma, S., 2019. Irrigation and irrigated agriculture potential in the Sahel: The case of the Niger river basin: Prospective review of the potential and constraints in a changing climate. JRC Technical Report. 32 Inocencio, A., Kikuchi, M., Tonosaki M., Maruyama, A., Merrey, D., Sally, H., de Jong, I., 2007. Costs and performance of irrigation projects : A comparison of sub-Saharan Africa and other developing regions. Colombo, Sri Lanka: International Water Management Institute. 81 pp. (IWMI Research Report 109). 33 Comas, J., Connor, D., et al., 2012. Why has small-scale irrigation not responded to expectations with traditional subsistence farmers along the Senegal River in Mauritania? Agricultural Systems 110, 152-161. 34 Van Der Wijngaart, R., Helming, J., Jacobs, C., Garzon Delvaux, P.A., Hoek, S. and Gomez y Paloma, S., 2019. Irrigation and irrigated agriculture potential in the Sahel: The case of the Niger river basin: Prospective review of the potential and constraints in a changing climate. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 7 Table 1 Area equipped for irrigation, actual irrigated area, and irrigation potential Area equipped cultivated area Irrigation irrigation Cultivated area Actual irrigated for irrigation equipped for potential (1000 potential de- (1000 ha) area (1000 ha) (1000 ha) irrigation (%) ha) veloped (%) Burkina Faso 6 100 54 46 0.9 165 33 Chad 5 238 30 26 0.6 335 9 Mali 6 561 371 176 5.7 566 66 Mauritania 411 45 23 11.0 250 18 Niger 17 818 102 88 0.6 270 38 G5 Sahel 36 128 602 359 1.6 1586 38 Source: FAO AQUASTAT, 2017, accessed April, 2021 water harvesting practices and improved soil fertility productivity, thus reducing irrigation expansion management and pest control represent a promising needs and freeing up water resources. Assessment of combination to significantly lift the yields of rainfed crop. the irrigation service in both large and small-medium irrigation schemes along the Senegal River Valley in 19. Small-scale irrigation systems offer the second Mauritania indicates that the lack of investment in largest potential gains to improve agricultural maintenance is driving many irrigation systems across productivity.35 Where irrigation remains necessary, typologies (large publicly owned and managed, PPPs, several studies estimating the irrigation potential in medium-small village schemes) down the degradation the Soudano-Sahelian region, considering water and spiral, which, in turn, affects the irrigation service and land resources as well as socio-economic variables, further hampers crop productivity and farmers’ income. point at a great potential for expanding small-scale It has also been estimated that rehabilitating irrigation irrigation, particularly in Mali. Compared to large dam- networks in Mali would double current agricultural based centrally managed schemes such as the Office du productivity, reducing the need for irrigation expansion. Niger, individually or community-managed small-scale Significant water savings will allow expansion of irrigated irrigation offers higher potential profits and internal area in the future, if needed. Despite evidence of large rates of return.36,37,38,39 These schemes will/do in large potential gains in increasing both crop productivity and part rely on groundwater sources. Nevertheless, many irrigation performance, some large schemes, like the barriers remain for the development of groundwater- Office du Niger in Mali, still plans to triple its irrigated based small irrigation schemes, amongst others the surface. Raising the efficiency and productivity of existing poor quality of the wells and boreholes, the access to irrigation schemes should therefore be a priority for adequate pumping technology and credit, or the difficulty future investments, even if located in conflict areas. to optimize abstraction costs, as well as challenges For instance, despite the development of an ASA related to knowledge of the resource and managing its (P166890) and government interest, the Bank has not sustainable use. been engaging with the Office du Niger, which operates in a high-risk conflict area (especially in Northern part 20. There is large scope in the G5 Sahel for improving of its service area). Yet, it is the core rice producer of the efficiency of existing irrigation systems through the region and increasing its efficiency would yield rehabilitation and increased crop and water several benefits such as creating job opportunities and 35 Van Der Wijngaart, R., Helming, J., Jacobs, C., Garzon Delvaux, P.A., Hoek, S. and Gomez y Paloma, S., 2019. Irrigation and irrigated agriculture potential in the Sahel: The case of the Niger river basin: Prospective review of the potential and constraints in a changing climate. JRC Technical Report. 36 You L., et al. 2010. What is the irrigation potential for Africa? A combined biophysical and socioeconomic approach. Food Policy 36(6):770—782. IFPRI Discussion Paper 00993 (40 pages). 37 Xie, H., You. L., Wielgosz, B., & C. Ringler. 2014. Estimating the potential for expanding smallholder irrigation in Sub-Saharan Africa. Agricultural Water Management 131(0), 183-193. 38 Burney, J. A., R. L. Naylor, S.L. Postel, 2013. The case for distributed irrigation as a development priority in sub-Saharan Africa. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110(31), 12513-12517. 39 Giordano, M., De Fraiture, C., Weight, E., Van der Bliek, J., 2012. Water for Wealth and Food Security: Supporting Farmer-Driven Investments in Agricultural Water management (International Water Management Institute, Colombo, Sri Lanka) 8 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel eventually helping to stabilize the area. The Government Fomi dam in Guinea or Taoussa in Mali) is, therefore, of Mali also recently asked support for the rehabilitation going to have an impact on the ecosystem and thus of 34,000 ha operated by the Office de Riz de Segou, on the traditional farming systems supporting the which would directly benefit more than 120,000 people. livelihoods of 1 million people. These two perimeters are the two largest users of water in the Niger river basin, and lay just ahead of the 22. 41Sustainable land and water management, Niger Inner Delta, a fragile ecosystem, threatened by and soil fertility management are imperative and flow regulations and pollution coming from upstream, as important as irrigation to sustain agricultural and yet sustaining the livelihoods of millions of people. production in the G5 Sahel — in addition to several The rehabilitation of existing infrastructure would thus other co-benefits that can be captured via an secure high positive impacts with relatively simple integrated landscape management. The terrible interventions. drought and crisis of 1984 brought to light the inappropriate soil and water management carried out 21. Flood-recession agriculture is another type of in the Sahel area until then: mismanagement of grazing farming - largely neglected by development policies and poor farming practices, promoted by governments yet widely spread along both the Senegal and Niger and the farmers themselves in rainy periods, had caused river valleys- which would benefit greatly from a systematic over-exploitation of the land well above improved water management. FAO40 estimates its average capacity to provide water and pasture. The that prior to the construction of Manantali dam on short-term vision of governments and communities, the Senegal River, the floodplain stretched up to 30 seeking to maximize economic returns in the shortest km in width, covered a total of about 1 million ha and possible time, had led to a severe degradation of the supported up to half a million people that depended soil. Today, the Sahel is one of the most environmentally on the flood-related cropping. Although the expansion degraded regions on the planet. The UN estimates that of irrigation and the reduced floods as a result of roughly 80 percent of farmland in the Sahel is degraded, Manantali have come at the detriment of flood- which threatens productivity: today nutrient limitation recession agriculture, it still represents a critical lifeline is the second-most limiting factor to crop productivity for the local riverine population. The productivity of after water.42,43,44 Moreover, a degraded soil is frequently flood-based farming is generally lower than that of too dry to absorb the rainfall: as a result, destructive irrigated land, however, flood-recession agriculture river floods and numerous flooding episodes were yields sorghum, beans and melons between the normal thus observed in Mali and Niger in 2019, for instance harvest periods of rice and onions at times when other from the Sirba basin in Burkina onto Niamey. Though agricultural contributions to the household subsistence unlocking private sector investment and support for are limited. Since labor inputs are very low, it represents land restoration has been historically challenging, today an appealing strategy to diversify and secure their private-sectors players can harness the opportunity food supplies. Similarly, in the Niger Inner Delta, it is of investment through carbon finance. The demand by estimated that in wet years, more than 34 000 km2 companies around the world, which strive to step up are inundated. The ecosystem of the Niger River inland their climate commitments, for high-integrity carbon delta and the traditional farming systems that use offsetting, particularly for nature-based solutions such its natural resources in the flood plains and the lakes as agroforestry, is surging. New standards for measuring (fisheries, agriculture, livestock) depend directly on soil carbon are allowing the carbon certification for the extent of the annual river floods. These traditional improved agricultural land management practices. farming systems are threatened by any extension of the irrigation schemes upstream of the delta (notably, the 23. Integrated landscape management (ILM), Office du Niger, already diverting annually 10 percent of merging land restoration with sustainable land and the Niger river waters) or the installation of dams (i.e., water management (SLWM), including catchment 40 FAO, 1997. Irrigation potential in Africa: A basin approach. FAO Land And Water Bulletin 4. FAO Land and Water Development Division, Rome. M-54 SBN 92-5-103966-6. 41 Source of Figure 4: Reich et al., 2001. https:/ /www.nrcs.usda.gov/wps/portal/nrcs/detail/soils/use/?cid=nrcs142p2_054025 42 Mueller, N. D., Gerber, J. S., Johnston, M., Ray, D. K., Ramankutty, N. & Foley, J. A. 2012. Closing yield gaps through nutrient and water management, 490, 254-257 43 Pastori, M., F. Bouraoui, et al., 2011, GISEPIC AFRICA: A modeling tool for assessing impacts of nutrient and water use in African agriculture. JRC Scientific and Technical Reports. Ispra, European Commission, Joint Research Centre, Institute for Environment and Sustainability. EUR 24912 EN. 44 Saito, K., Vandamme, E., Johnson, J-M., Tanaka, A., Senthilkumar, K., Dieng, I., Akakpo, C., et al., 2019. Yield-limiting macronutrients for rice in sub- Saharan Africa, Geoderma 338, 546-554. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 9 Figure 4 Desertification vulnerability of Africa interventions, combining water buffering with agronomic and biological actions that improve soil health, can be very effective in increasing the productivity of both rainfed and irrigated agriculture, while improving the natural resource base and providing other livelihood opportunities. ILM aims to protect, within a given area or landscape, the natural capital base by promoting synergies between activities that boost production systems, improve local livelihoods, and support biodiversity conservation and ecosystem services. It incorporates different land and water uses and users into a single management process and provides a basic framework for balancing competing demands and integrating policies for multiple land and water uses within a given area. It is a participatory, community-engaged process for dialogue, planning, negotiating, and monitoring decisions. In a region characterized by land degradation and scarcity of water resources like the G5 Sahel, applying ILM would help restore lands, improve and boost productivity, and livelihoods – with all the associated benefits in terms of reduced migration and fragility.  astoralists, key water users often I.2.3. P neglected in national and regional Pastoralism is also the livestock system best adapted to the Sahelian ecological context and is critical to maintain water policies and regenerate the vast Sahelian rangelands, acting as a carbon sink and supplying ecosystem services. 24. Pastoralism, another major economic pillar of the While contributing much to the region’s economy Sahel, is yet largely ignored by development policies. and livelihoods, pastoral communities have generally Approximately 13 percent of the population of Western benefitted little from public investment and policies and Central Africa is considered pastoral, being nomadic compared to the farming and urban communities. or semi-nomadic. In Niger, 87 percent of the active population is involved in livestock rearing.45 Livestock 25. Pastoralism is highly dependent on water production accounts for at least 25 percent of the GDP and grazing. Fodder availability, in quantitative and of G5 Sahel countries and 40 percent of agricultural GDP qualitative terms, is a crucial factor with respect to in the region on average.46 This large contribution to the pastoralism in the Sahel. Figure 5 shows estimated region’s GDP is due to the major livestock potential and average biomass production over the 1998-2010 genetic diversity found in West Africa. The region has period. Rainfall intensity during the rainy season and its about 25 percent of the cattle in sub-Saharan Africa, spatial distribution determine the potential quantity of 33 percent of the sheep, 40 percent of the goats and fodder available during the subsequent long dry season. 20 percent of the camels. Transhumant pastoralism is Pastoral production is characterized by extreme inter- an important part of the livestock sector, representing annual variability due to its high dependence on rain to between 70 and 90 percent of the cattle population in sustain the grazing grounds, which expand and shrink the Sahel today.47 Livestock being reared in Sahelian enormously depending on rainfall. A study in northern countries is actively traded across Western Africa and Mali showed for instance that feed availability could represents the second source of export revenue after shrink by two thirds in lean years, leading to significant uranium in Niger, and 30 percent of exports for Chad. drop in milk yields and rise in young stock mortality. 45 Strategie Nationale de l’Hydraulique Pastorale, 2014. Ministere de l’Hydraulique et de l’Assainissement du Niger. 46 De Haan, C., 2014. “Estimating Livestock Dependent Populations in Mali: Methodological Note.” World Bank, Washington, DC. 47 SWAC-OECD/ECOWAS 2008. Livestock and regional market in the Sahel and West Africa Potentials and challenges. 10 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Figure 5 Estimated average biomass production over the 1998-2010 period Source: CIRAD & FAO, 2012. Information system on pastoralism in the Sahel: Atlas of trends in pastoral systems in the Sahel 1970- 2012. (p.10)56 After a drought, re-stocking may then take several boom livestock along transhumant routes and near grazing years.48 Moreover, during droughts the average herd/ grounds (both during the dry and wet season) restricts flock size for most households in the Sahel falls below mobility all the more, leads to overgrazing, and limits the minimum of about 2.5 TLU (Tropical Livestock Unit, 1 access to new grazing lands that could represent TLU = 250 kg) needed to sustain an average family.49 important fallback sources of feed in lean years. Mobility is key to pastoral systems in arid contexts because it 26. Today, the Sahel’s network of pastoral water sustains the productivity of grazing resources. Figure points is insufficient and needs rehabilitation, 6 displays national and cross-border mobility patterns which, in addition to mobility restrictions due to of pastoralists along grazing and trading routes. In the agricultural expansion, land policies, and local Sahel, cropland has increased 2.5-fold to the detriment governance, threatens even further the livelihoods of of critical grazing areas, which have decreased by 13 pastoralists in the G5 Sahel, exacerbating challenges percent. In parallel, the livestock population (expressed for the economic development. Today, hundreds of in TLU) grew 2.5-fold between 1961 and 2009,52 leading water points, and the nearby grazing areas, have been to increased competition for grazing land, especially abandoned across of G5 Sahel countries.50,51 The lack higher-potential dry season grazing.53 The Food Crisis of a sufficient functional network of watering points for Prevention Network already warned in April 2020 of 48 http://www.fao.org/3/i3043e/i3043e05.pdf. 49 Sandford,S., 2011. “Too Many People, Too Few Livestock: The Crisis Affecting Pastoralists in the Greater Horn of Africa.” Master’s thesis. http:/ / www.future -agricultures.org/pdfpercent20files/Sandford_thesis.pdf 50 De Haan, C. (editor)., 2016. Prospects for Livestock-Based Livelihoods in Africa’s Drylands. World Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0836-4. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO. 51 ECliS., 2012. “Contribution of livestock systems to the reduction of rural population vulnerability and to the promotion of their adaptability to climate and society changes in West Sub-Saharan Africa (Senegal, Mali, Niger, Benin).” Résumé exécutif. ANR Project (National Research Agency—France). 52 SIPSA., 2012. “Atlas of Trends in Pastoral Systems in the Sahel 1970–2012.” FAO-CIRAD. Swift, J. 1977. October. “Sahelian Pastoralists: Underdevelopment, Desertification, and Famine.” Annual Review of Anthropology 6: 457–78. 53 De Haan, C. (editor)., 2016. Prospects for Livestock-Based Livelihoods in Africa’s Drylands. World Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0836-4. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 11 Figure 6 Summary of national and transborder herd movements and commercial cattle trade channels Source: CIRAD & FAO, 2012. Information system on pastoralism in the Sahel: Atlas of trends in pastoral systems in the Sahel 1970- 2012. (p.14) a major food crisis risk in West Africa, hitting pastoral that they are more likely to include a larger proportion families particularly hard because of both large feed of a country’s economic activity. For these basins, deficits and mobility restrictions linked to Covid-19, cooperative management helps safeguard economic which limit cross-border transhumance and the supply activity and social wellbeing in the riparian countries. of many livestock markets. In national policies for food Sharing benefits is most critical for basins which have security and agricultural development, mobility and high economic dependence on transboundary waters pastoral communities’ needs have largely been ignored. and high absolute levels of economic activity (UNEP-DHI and UNEP 2016). Transboundary waters sustain much of the I.2.4.  28. Transboundary water in the Sahel is also critical economic activities in this region for energy security, in a region that faces structural and growing deficits in both. Transboundary rivers are 27. A large share of the G5 Sahel economic activities responsible for practically all hydropower generation depends on transboundary water resources. As shown in West Africa. With only 17 percent of its 23,500 MW in Figure 7, the region’s largest transboundary basins potential developed to date, there is room for expansion. have medium to very high economic dependence linked Only 13 percent of the Niger river hydropower capacity to them (i.e., a large proportion of national economic of 15,000 MW is developed,55 7 percent of the Senegal activity is located inside the basin). The highest economic basin’s 6,000MW capacity56 and 70 percent of the Volta dependence is identified in relation to the largest basins Basin’s 2 325 MW capacity.57 Generated hydropower (Niger, Chad and Volta), partly because their size means is exported through the West Africa Regional power 54 http:/www.inter-reseaux. org/IMG/pdf/Atlas SIPSA 2012-1.pdf. 55 Though it is not fully exploited. It produces on average 6 500 GWh/year when it could produce up to 30 000 GWh / year. SOURCE: Haut Commissariat à l’amenagement de la Vallée du Niger, 2008 56 LAVAL university, 2016. The Manantali dam’s installed capacity is of 200 MW (producing ~800 GWh/y)) and the Felou run of the river’s 60MW. The Gouina dam — nearly completed - has a capacity of 140MW and is expected to produce around 600 GWh/year. 57 World Bank, 2015. PAD for the Volta River Basin Strategic River Basin Strategic Action Programme Implementation Project. 12 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Economic Dependence on Water Resources by Transboundary River Basin in the G5 countries. Figure 7  Based on economic activities located inside the basin. Atui Senegal Lake Chad Niger Volta Komoe Legend Transboundary River Basins Economic Dependence on Water Resources Basin Country Unit Very Low � Low High 0 250 500 1,000 Very High Kilometers Source: World Bank using data from UNEP-DHI and UNEP (2016).58 pool, hence electricity produced in one country in the development. Existing estimates indicate that between basin often benefits other countries in the same basin 1-5percent of the total crop area in the basin is irrigated and increasingly countries beyond the basin itself. For (0.55-0.9 M/ha). In turn, irrigation potential could reach example, most electricity generated in the Volta basin is 1.5-2.9 million hectares with an associated expansion produced in Ghana, and is benefitting all countries in the of the total agricultural area — though the caveats basin, except for Mali. All installed hydropower generation described above should be considered. in the Senegal basin is in Mali and shared with Senegal and Mauritania. I.3. Water as a critical element 29. The Niger, Senegal, Lake Chad, and Volta River basins have large undeveloped irrigation, fisheries, for improving stability and transport and hydroelectric potential. It is estimated that about 2 percent of cropland in these basins is security in the region irrigated (less than 0.5 million ha, contrasting with 37 percent in Asia) representing approximately 20 percent 30. The G5 Sahel is one of the most fragile regions of the Sahel’s irrigation potential.59 Among the basins, of the world, where civil unrest and insurgency feed the Niger stands out as one of the most important the vicious cycle of rural poverty and insecurity. in Africa with a large potential for infrastructure Extremism is fueled partially by the rising poverty 58 UNEP-DHI and UNEP (2016). Transboundary River Basins: Status and Trends. United Nations Environment Program (UNEP), Nairobi. 59 World Bank, 2014. Project appraisal document for the Transforming Irrigation Management in Nigeria Project. Report No. PAD1001. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 13 Figure 8 Conflict-affected and prevention areas in the G5 Sahel region (December2020) rates, demographic explosion, youth unemployment demographic growth, not-inclusive development policies, and deteriorating resource base further increases and regional instability. The impacts of Covid-19 on the the population’s vulnerability. As a result, across the economy, health, and food security have potentiated G5 Sahel region, two thirds of the population live in these fragilities. While achieving water security in fragile conflict-risk areas and millions more are unable to find contexts may be more challenging because of the weak work.60 All G5 Sahel countries but Mauritania fall into the institutional and policy environment and poor technical medium-intensity conflicts category according to the and financial capacities, it is precisely here that failure to FCS classification.61 The five countries, with more than reach water security can have the most damaging social, 3.5 million displaced people, are also home to the world’s political, and economic consequences, increasing fragility fastest growing displacement crisis.62 even further. In a region where livelihoods and economies depend heavily on water and agriculture, variation in 31. Water insecurity worsens fragility and may water availability increases vulnerability to the effects of trigger or amplify tensions and conflicts. Today, conflict, while the conflict itself restricts access to water there is growing global evidence that water challenges sources and can degrade them, creating what is known exacerbate fragility and conflict.63 In G5 Sahel water as a “conflict trap”. The most challenging situations are insecurity is a major driver or magnifier of conflicts, where likely to occur in areas under fragile contexts that are it intertwines with a multitude of fragility drivers such as, chronically water insecure, where water-related shocks structural poverty and lack of economic opportunities, (such as drought or floods) or disruptions of water 60 OCHA, 2019. Humanitarian Emergency at Unprecedented Level in Sahel - Burkina Faso | ReliefWeb 61 FY21 List of Fragile and Conflict-affected Situations 62 R4 Sahel Data Platform, 2020 63 Sadoff, 2017. Turbulent Waters: Pursuing Water Security in fragile Contexts; Busby, Joshua, Uexkull, Nina von (2018) Climate shocks and humanitarian crises. Foreign Affairs (November) (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/world/2018-11-29/climate-shocks-and-humanitarian- crises). 14 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel supplies (such as infrastructure damage) overwhelm 34. The worsening conditions of wetlands in the Sahel government capacity for response and resilience.64 undermines human well-being and compels people to migrate. The floodplains and wetlands in the Sahel, 32. In the G5 Sahel region, water insecurity fuels including the Ramsar sites of the Niger Inner Delta and fragility and instability through three main channels: Lake Chad are highly productive and biologically diverse Water insecurity can fuel cross-border and regional ecosystems, fed by seasonal floods. These dynamic challenges by for instance (i) leading to environmental wetlands have long been the basis for local and regional migration and pressure on resources in host economies. Today, millions of people depend on their communities, (ii) diverting pastoralist routes leading to assets for fish, cattle, food, fuelwood, water, medicinal encroachment into cropped areas and ensuing conflicts plants, and crops such as rice. During the dry season, between farmers and herders (iii) further weakening wetlands become a magnet for pastoralists. Lake Chad the citizens’ trust in the state due to lack of economic is an export hub for fish, livestock, and agricultural opportunities, thereby legitimizing violent expression of products and today it plays a major role in regional dissatisfaction and grievance. food security of a hinterland with nearly 13 million inhabitants and two metropolitan centers (N’Djamena and Maiduguri).They also act as a buffer against drought. Water insecurity induced migration and I.3.1.  As migratory waterfowl sites, both the Niger Inner pressure on resources in host communities Delta and Lake Chad are listed among the Ramsar Wetlands of International Importance. Yet, flooding 33. Land degradation exacerbates water insecurity in the Niger Inner Delta has receded due to upstream by reducing soil water retention capacity, increasing water offtakes. Disputes amongst herders, fishermen, runoff and provoking destructive flooding downstream and farmers are increasing. More than one million and compounds water insecurity as a trigger of people could be permanently displaced because of the conflict. For instance, it was found that land degradation operation of existing and proposed upstream dams and acted as a multiplier in the conflicts in Northern Mali.65 water diversions. Similarly, the region around Lake Chad By eroding natural resources-based livelihoods and remains the poorest and most marginalized part of each income, water insecurity and land degradation generate respective country. Vulnerable farmers have been facing unemployment, poverty, and resentment, particularly devastating natural hazards including cyclical droughts among young, disempowered people who are the and floods over the past decade, abetted by climate most recruitable by groups who fuel existing ethnic change. Since 2014, the functioning of government and political tensions for their own interests. Lack of institutions has been even more disrupted by the rise of Investment in basic services, climate adaptive resilience, the double insurgencies of Boko Haram and the Islamic and livelihood opportunities, can result in outmigration. State in West Africa Province. As a result, in a region Many displaced households have been forced to leave that used to feed its population and employ millions, behind their cattle or tools and are therefore dependent now millions of people depend on humanitarian aid, on host populations for their survival. Non-displaced and suffer from., violent conflict, forced displacement, households in conflict-affected communities have seen poor governance, endemic corruption and serious local agricultural systems affected by the destruction environmental mismanagement. of farming and irrigations facilities and attacks or thefts of cattle. Water resources management interventions 35. The influx of populations linked to forced supporting livelihood restoration and climate adaptive displacement increases the pressure on water income generating opportunities among both the resources, with in some cases lack of acceptance by the displaced and the non-displaced is therefore critical host communities. Fragility-induced displacement puts for a sustainable recovery. The International Military additional pressure on water resources and services in the Council on Climate and Security indicates investment in receiving communities, aggravating water insecurity and water, food security, and disaster preparedness as key further slowing down urban and economic growth. For opportunities for global stability and security.66 instance, protests and violence were triggered by water shortages in Nouakchott in July 2012 as over 70,000 64 Sadoff, C.W., Borgomeo, E., de Waal, D., 2017. Turbulent Waters: Pursuing Water Security in Fragile Contexts. Washington, DC, World Bank. 65 Dal Santo, E., van der Heide, E.J., 2018. Escalating Complexity in Regional Conflicts: Connecting Geopolitics to Individual Pathways to Terrorism in Mali, African Security, 11:3, 274-291, DOI: 10.1080/19392206.2018.1505232 66 The World Climate and Security Report 2020. International Military Council on Climate and Security Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 15 Malian refuges were seeking asylum in Mauritania, putting further south, heightening conflict over scarce resources pressure on the scarce food and water supplies.67 In among ethnic groups, many of which are armed. Water- early 2020, the Burkina Faso CMU carried out a portfolio related population movement is often difficult to assess deep dive to reallocate funds towards supporting the because the impacts of slow onset water-related Government with emergency service provision in urban disasters, such as drought, on livelihoods are often centers and their periphery to cope with the wave of delayed, and have many causes, and because multiple internally displaced people seeking safety from the drivers affect the decision to move. Drought, like other violence in the Liptako-Gourma area. Today, more than water-related disasters, cannot be prevented. However, 1,000,000 people have been internally displaced in investments in drought preparedness, creation of early Burkina Faso, putting significant pressure on existing warning systems, and diversification of water supply service provision and flooding the labor market, leaving and livelihood sources can protect populations and many new arrivals out of work. economies from the harmful consequences of these disasters. 36. Water insecurity-induced displacements, particularly those due to drought, compound fragility. The current context, in addition to the climate of  iverting pastoralist routes leading I.3.2. D uncertainty prevailing in rural areas slowly degraded to encroachment into cropped areas by climate change, has been pushing many people to migrate to urban centers. A recent report also indicates and ensuing conflicts between that a 1 percent reduction in precipitation is associated farmers and herders with a 0.59 percent increase in the urbanization rate, increasing pressure on water resources and its services.68 38. Inter-annual water variability and increased Men’s labour migration markedly increases following competition over land and water resources are creating drought,and in Niger young men between the age of new forms of conflict between farmers and herders 25 and 35 regularly move to urban centers in response in the Sahel, contributing significantly to the rise to drought.In Burkina Faso, people living in drier areas in deadly violence in the region during the past five were found to be more likely to migrate than people years. Empirical evidence shows a higher probability of living in areas with higher rainfall availability.69Urban occurrence of water-scarcity-induced conflicts in G5 Sahel centers are considered to be safe, less dependent on as compared to the rest of Africa. A recent found a sharp economic activities based on natural resources and negative relationship between variations in soil water therefore less affected by natural phenomena. This content and conflict specifically for the countries of the concentration of population in urban areas is likely to G5 Sahel.72 The causality link materializes via livelihood lead to overexploitation of natural resources and water channels by disrupting food production and engendering supply networks.70 income losses that may give rise or exacerbate existing grievances and thereby increase individuals’ willingness 37. Migration is an important adaptation strategy, to engage in conflict. Depending on the situation, livestock but it can lead to conflict between host and migrant farmers may advance or delay their transhumance communities. In fragile contexts where armed and movements. Host pastoral areas risk a high inflow of violent groups operate, these tensions could trigger animals, thus increasing the risk of epizootic disease further conflicts among communities.71 For example, onset, conflicts with local crop farmers, overgrazing and the shrinking of Lake Chad in 1980s and 1990s forced environmental degradation (see Figure 9, for instance in ethnically diverse pastoralist communities from the the area of the Niger Inner Delta (centre, green). Likewise, Republic of Niger and other riparian countries to move inequalities in water endowments between different 67 Taha, R.M., 2012. “Mali conflict spilling over: Influx of refugees from Mali exacerbates political instability in neighbouring Mauritania.” Daily News, Egypt, July 1. http://www.dailynewsegypt.com/2012/07/01/mali-conflict-spilling-over/. 68 World Bank, under publication. High and Dry. 69 WGP, 2021. Ebb and Flow: Water, Migration, and Development. Water Global Practice, The World Bank. 70 Majans, J., 2020. The Sahel at the heart of climate change issues. SOLIDARITÉS INTERNATIONAL 71 Ginnetti, J., Franck, T., 2014. Assessing Drought Displacement Risk for Kenyan, Ethiopian and Somali Pastoralists. Technical Paper. Norwegian Refugee Council (NRC)/Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre. 72 Khan & Rodella, 2021. A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel  16 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Figure 9 Pastoral farming in the Sahel (August 2019) Source: https://atalayar.com/en/content/hacia-una-guerra-clim%C3%A1tica-en-el-sahel locations and population groups increases the likelihood of mechanisms to match water access to the actual of conflict breaking out.73,74 In Niger, the drilling of pastoral carrying capacity of the grassland over time.76 wells along strategic transhumant routes that cross agro-pastoral areas is often disputed as sedentary (i.e. 39. Whereas, in the past, natural resources-based farming) communities claim exclusive ownership over disputes where largely resolved by social agreements land and perceive the construction of a pastoral water mediated by local leaders, these traditional conflict- point as a form of land expropriation. In such cases, resolution mechanisms appear to be weaker today.77 the establishment of the well in question is frequently These new zones of conflict between farmers and herders diverted in proximity of the village and placed under the often occur in peripheral areas, often on the margins of control of the villagers, which compromises its pastoral state capacity. Here, the presence of jihadists, armed use and remains a latent source of conflict.75 Similarly, gangs and ethnic militias—all of which manipulate the development of boreholes — allowing permanent farmer-herder frictions around land and water use — is water availability — has often led to overgrazing of dry both symptom and cause of the incapacity of formal season pastures by attracting permanent settlers, who institutions to arbitrate and manage localized resource would not respect the resting period of these rangelands competition. Lake Chad, historically a cultural and and prevent their regeneration. A clear definition of users’ commercial crossroad for farmers, herders, fisher(wo) rights should be a point of focus along with the definition men, and traders of four border countries, is turning in yet another conflict hotspot because of increasing pressure 73 Berman, N., Couttenier, M., Rohner, D. and Thoenig, M., 2017. This mine is mine! How minerals fuel conflicts in Africa. American Economic Review, 107(6), pp.1564-1610.  74 Morelli, M. Rohner, D., 2015. Resource concentration and civil wars. Journal of Development Economics, 117, pp.32-47. 75 Pratt, D.J., Le Gall,F., De Haan, C., 1997. “Investing in Pastoralism: Sustainable Natural Resource Use in Arid Africa and the Middle East.” Technical Paper 365, World Bank, Washington, DC. 76 De Haan, C. (editor)., 2016. Prospects for Livestock-Based Livelihoods in Africa’s Drylands. World Bank Studies. Washington, DC: World Bank. doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0836-4. License: Creative Commons Attribution CC BY 3.0 IGO 77 Strategie Nationale de l’Hydraulique Pastorale, 2014. Ministere de l’Hydraulique et de l’Assainissement du Niger. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 17 Box 1 Hotspots of agropastoral tensions are present in all countries of the G5 Sahel. • In Burkina Faso, they are located in the agro- 1993 that resulted in 34 deaths. In most cases, pastoral zones of the Western, Central, and Centre- violent confrontations were sparked by disputes South regions. over the sharing of water and access to grazing corridors between Dogon and Fulani communities. • These conflicts occur in many regions of Chad, Conflict and violence escalated between these especially in the southern strip (Logone Oriental two groups in the last years and culminated in the and Occidental, Tandjilé, Mandoul, Moyen Chari and massacre of 134 Fulani in 2019 by a Dogon militia. Mayo-Kebbi), in the Center (Batha) and in the East (Ouaddai).79 Most conflicts in the Lake Chad area are • In Mauritania, conflicts are concentrated in the again generated around access to water and pastures Senegal River valley, in the regions of Trarza, Brakna, between herding communities (Boudoumas and Gorgol, Guidimakha and Assaba. They concern Peuls, Toubous and Arabs, Mahamides and Peuls). In mainly the 24,000 returnees, mostly from the 2016, 40 Boudouma were killed in a clash with Peuls Haalpular (Black-African) community, who returned on the Nigerian shores of the lake. between 2007 and 201281 and who are claiming back the land they left behind after deportation • In Mali, agropastoral conflicts are concentrated to Senegal and Mali, which has been redistributed in the Mopti and Segou regions and south of mainly to the Arab community (Bidhan and Haratins). Timbuktu and have often resulted in violent extremism and community violence. In the Mopti • In Niger, violent conflicts over access to resources region of Mali, the dismantlement of traditional are extremely widespread in the regions of Diffa, resource management systems in the flood- Tillabéri and in densely populated areas namely recession areas of the Mopti region has created the southern regions of Dosso, Zinder, Tahoua tensions between farmers and herders around the and Maradi. The most prominent case in Niger access to transhumance routes and water points. are the regular tensions between Fulani (in Niger) Policies of the last decades favoring agriculture and Daoussahak Tuareg (in Mali) pastoralists in over pastoralism have only exacerbated these the Tillabery region. tensions.80 In inundated areas, disrespect of free access to wetland pastures (bourgoutieres) to Overall, The Water Conflict Chronology of the Pacific herders caused extremely violent confrontations Institute recorded 10 violent conflicts involving water since between the villages of Soossobe et Salsalbe in 2010 in G5 Sahel countries, most of them in Mali.82. on and competition for land and water exacerbated by for the establishment of social agreements around the environmental degradation and climate change. The lack development, use, and management of water resources in of state involvement in an area considered peripheral pastoral areas. by both Chad and Niger results in under-provision of basic services and absence or failure of disarmament, demobilization and reintegration processes allowing Increasing marginalization and weakening I.3.3.  former rebels, ex-military, and bandits to fill this void. citizens’ trust in the state A strong feeling of insularity has developed among its inhabitants. The recently drafted National Strategies for 40. And where the state is involved, there is Pastoral Waterworks (Strategie Nationale de l’Hydraulique often a perception that it has been on the side of Pastorale) of Mali, Niger, and Chad (those of Mauritania farmers through policies of sedentarization and and Burkina Faso are ongoing) recognize the contested food autonomy, fueling pastoralist grievances nature of access to water and land, pitting sedentary of alienation, exclusion, and injustice. Local level communities against mobile, and propose guidance tensions and national grievances of certain ethnic 78 Evaluation des Risques et de la Resilience dans la Region du Sahel. 79 Adam, T., 2017. Centre du Mali : enjeux et dangers d’une crise négligée, Centre pour le Dialogue Humanitaire. 80 Ahmedou, H., 2018. Rapatriés et conflits fonciers dans la vallée du fleuve Sénégal: Thiambène, les manguiers de la discorde. In : Foncier, droit et propriété en Mauritanie. Enjeux et perspectives de recherche, Rabat, p. 151-172. /www.worldwater.org/water-conflict. 81 The Pacific Institute. The Water Conflict Chronology, https:/ 18 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel groups underrepresented or excluded from political and power dynamics around the control of land decision-making can be instrumentalized by religious and water. It is thus crucial to thoroughly consider extremist groups to rally legitimacy and supporters possible scenarios of future configurations of for their cause. Box 1 presents hotspots of conflict water users, as a consequence of developing a new between farmer sand herders in the G5 countries. The (permanent) water asset, such as new settlements, Sahel Alliance recognizes the importance of managing resource appropriation by local chiefs, or exploitation these conflicts, which is one of the key objectives of by external private actors. Equitable distribution of its pillar on Agriculture, Rural Development, and Food project benefits is mandatory to move from mere Security. The Regional Sahel Pastoralism Support “do-no-harm” to proactive ”peacebuilding” while Project (PRAPS I, P147674) is successfully applying enhancing stability and reducing risks of exclusion, the social engineering approach facilitating multi- grievance, and conflict. It is equally important to actor and multi-scale consultations to arrive at social understand local traditional conflict resolution agreements on the use of common resources—namely, mechanisms as a key element to be leveraged in a social charter reflecting all the points of consensus project design and management on which all parties—local actors, both permanent and seasonal, beneficiaries, administrative and customary authorities—have agreed and are committed to. Climate change could further increase I.3.4  tensions between different water users I.3.4. Ensuring a do-no-harm intervention 43. Climate projections for the region are dire and likely to increase tensions between different water 41. The challenge when developing new water users. Despite large uncertainties, it seems that rainfall sources in fragile situations with inter/intra- variability and temperature will increase, and that the communal tensions over (scarce) natural resources, rainy season will shorten, with a shift in peak flows of is to avoid exacerbating existing conflicts or create the main Senegal and Niger rivers. Moreover, despite new ones. In view of the many ways in which water uncertainties in future rainfall patterns, recent findings insecurity can drive FCV outcomes, well-designed and point towards a long-term declining rainfall trend. implemented investments in water security can play This may be partly due to deforestation along the a critical role in improving stability and mitigating the Guinean Coast, which has wider hydrological impacts risk of conflicts in G5 Sahel. Yet evidence indicates that by reducing evaporation and recycling of moisture large irrigation projects may also become magnets of available to travel northwest to generate rainfall in conflict, particularly in fragile, resource-scarce settings. Wester Sahel.83,84 Some countries will experience up to For instance, a recent study found a higher incidence of 20 percent reduction in water availability.85 This means conflict in irrigated areas, as compared to non-irrigated that the water we have today might not be there in the areas, amid increased fragility in the aftermath of the future. At the same time, water demands will increase Arab Spring in the broader West African region.82 While with higher temperatures (when it is needed, where it irrigation helps stabilizing agricultural production vis a is needed), particularly from agriculture and the natural vis rainfall variability, irrigation development also entails environment, which will make water evermore the land redistribution and differentiated access to benefits. constraining factor in agricultural production. Recent Irrigated plots may then become a high-value target literature indicates that future interventions will need of conflicts. Similarly, past experiences in several Sahel to be framed within a scenario of an average 40- regions suggest that creating new resources can also 110 mm less rainfall by 2040 relative to today, and provoke an increase in local tensions and sometimes more frequent and intense droughts and floods. The violent conflict (see Box 2). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predicts that agricultural yields will fall by 20 percent per decade 42. Therefore, it is critical that these investments by the end of the 21st century in some areas of the are based on sufficient preparatory work to Sahel. Climate change also influences the choice of understand existing livelihood and tenure systems routes taken by pastoralists with their herds, which is 82 Khan & Rodella, 2021. A Hard Rain’s a-Gonna Fall? New Insights on Water Security and Fragility in the Sahel. 83 Sheil, D., 2018. Forests, atmospheric water and an uncertain future: the new biology of the global water cycle. Forest Ecosystems 5:19. 84 Ellison, D., Speranza, C.I., 2020. From blue to green water and back again: Promoting tree, shrub and forest-based landscape resilience in the Sahel. Science of Total Environment 739. 85 World Bank, Climate Knowledge Portal Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 19 Box 2 Examples of close relationship between the increase in resources and the consequent increase in tensions Case 1- Central Mali: During an operation to support by drawing in non-native farmers, mostly from the Fulsé livestock farming in the Mopti region new wells rendered and Mossi ethnic groups. As a result, Fulani owners who areas previously devoid of water more attractive. The wells are often nomadic herders felt pushed off the land without drew in Dogon farmers from central Mali, who settled adequate compensation. The non-native populations also there, initially with the permission of Fulani herders whom sought to bypass the traditional local authority, in this the state often recognized as having land use rights. case the emir of Tongomayel, by appointing their own Over time, the number of farmers grew, and they began village chiefs. Amid these tensions, Fulani herders have asserting their rights over the land surrounding the wells, approached jihadist groups, who are known for rejecting which had been dug for the herders. Tensions between state decisions and helping people who support them gain herders and farmers worsened, as neither the state nor access to land. “traditional” local authorities seemed capable of regulating land use in a peaceful and consensual manner In neither of these examples, it seems that the right mechanism to resolve dispute over access rights were in Case 2- Soum province of Burkina Faso: The “Riz Pluvial” place — it shows how important it is to understand local development project helped increase rice production dynamics and conflict resolution mechanisms to avoid volumes in the municipality of Belehédé. But this project doing any harm and achieving the intended objectives to also affected the local demographic and political balance benefit the local populations. likely to lead to increased tensions between them and increase 1.5 times faster in the Sahel than the global farming communities. average, increased water scarcity is likely to reduce crop yields and livestock productivity, and further affect food security and food prices.87 Surface water’s ecological and I.4. Improving water security by environmental services will be impaired unless measures are taken to curtail demand and to increasingly mobilize increasing storage is essential groundwater. It is estimated that, in Mali alone, an area for the resilience of the G5 of between 331,000 to 787,000 ha could be irrigated from renewable groundwater.88 However, with booming Sahel population to climate groundwater demand, its governance and management need to be strengthened. This includes both the variability and change institutional level with upgrading existing national water laws and policies, and the technical level, to improve the 44. Given the large spatial and temporal variability efficiency and quality of groundwater development (Box of Sahel’s water resources, diversifying water 3). resources and increasing recharge and storage are critical climate-resilient solutions. In the period 1980- 45. While storage is essential for increasing the 2015, 107 million people were affected in SSA due resilience of Sahelian population to already-changing to droughts causing US$ 3.4 billion in damages with rainfall patterns, current storage is limited and often high social, environmental, and economic costs. The poorly performing and in need of rehabilitation. In the warming trends create an increasing risk for long-term Sahel, the actual storage capacity decreased by 5-10 droughts in Africa, with some estimates indicating percent from 1990-2010.89 According to a recent study megadroughts could extend for up to 100 years in of the water sector in Burkina Faso,90 sedimentation Sub-Saharan Africa.86 As temperatures are projected to is rampant as it affects smaller and larger dams alike 86 Ault, T.R., Cole, J.E., Overpeck, J.T., G. T. Pederson, G.T., Meko., D.M., 2014. Assessing the risk of persistent drought using climate model simulations and paleoclimate data. Journal of Climate 27, 7529– 7549. 87 https://blogs.worldbank.org/nasikiliza/towards-more-sustainable-future-sahel-region 88 Altchenko, Y., K. G. Villholth, K.G., 2015. Mapping irrigation potential from renewable groundwater in Africa – a quantitative hydrological approach. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 19(2), 1055-1067. 89 Wisser, D., Frolking, S., Hagen, S., M. F. P. Bierkens, M.F.P., 2013. Beyond peak reservoir storage? A global estimate of declining water storage capacity in large reservoirs, Water Resour. Res., 49, 5732–5739. 90 Burkina Faso: Water for Development to 2030: Sector Note, 2021. 20 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Figure 10 Average rainfall (mm) in G5 Sahel (estimated, 2000-2010) Source: CIRAD & FAO, 2012. Information system on pastoralism in the Sahel: Atlas of trends in pastoral systems in the Sahel 1970- 2012. (p.8) across the country and calls for a rethinking of design 46. There are many options for increasing storage principles as well as careful construction. The water in the Sahel, ranging from aquifer recharge,, to resources management plan of the Nakanbe basin - increasing soil water content, to small-medium and with the Mouhoun basin the main source of surface large dams, with varying levels of complexities. Given water of Burkina Faso - states that 159 dams are the importance of increasing storage in the Sahel, in a state of disrepair, mostly due to sedimentation; and wary of the challenges embedded in large scale others, conceived as multi-purpose, today only serve infrastructure, the Bank may want to support small scale one use. Similarly, the Government of Mali highlighted decentralized storage as a more climate-resilient and the need of rehabilitation and maintenance of the less socially and environmentally sensitive solution. In Manantali, Sotupe2, Markala, and Selingue dams — the Sahel, there is large untapped potential for water though national investments, key for water security harvesting to increase storage in aquifers through in the region. In the G5 Sahel, multipurpose storage in-stream solutions, in soils through in-situ water can significantly help increase regional energy access, harvesting, or in surface water reservoirs by harnessing improve flood and drought control, and secure access runoff. Yet, to guarantee hydrological gains and to avoid to water for different uses. Aware of this, countries are negative downstream effects, these smaller scale moving forward with large infrastructure investments interventions need to be grounded in sound hydrological in storage with continued support from financiers assessment at the (sub)catchment scale. Moreover, in a (e.g. Koukoutamba and Gourbassi in the Senegal river context of longer cycles of alternating dry and wet years, basin, Fomi and Taoussa in the Niger River Basin, etc.). water buffering needs to be planned with a multi-year However, they are complex investments that require perspective alternating recharge cycles during wet careful planning and management, especially in terms periods and abstractions in dry periods. Very roughly, of operations to meet the needs of diverse set of water the type of water harvesting and storage is dictated by users at and downstream of the projects. isohyets.91 In hyper-arid contexts (<250mm), buffering in aquifers is possibly the most efficient way to store water for its low/null evaporation losses and to avoid 91 A line drawn on a map connecting points having equal rainfall at a certain time or for a stated period Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 21 Groundwater, a strategic resource for G5 Sahel countries that calls for strengthening knowledge Box 3  and governance. There is little quantitative information on the largely transboundary groundwater resources in Western Sahel, and little is known about the physical extent, accessibility, and Tindouf development potential of groundwater in the region. There Nubian Sandstone Aquifer are very few groundwater systems in the Sahel where both System (NSAS) the recharge and discharge components of the groundwater balance have been determined.94 To respond to knowledge Taoudeni Basin Lake Chad and expertise gaps around groundwater resources Irhazer-Illuemeden Basin Senegalo-Mauretanian Basin Basin mobilization and management in the Sahel, the Bank is Aquifer extension Sud-Est de Disa currently conducting the Sahel Groundwater Initiative, Taoudeni Volta whose objective is to evolve a framework to inform a more Basin efficient and sustainable management of the groundwater resources and to improve the capacity of the key players on groundwater issues in the Sahel. Legend With booming groundwater demand, both its governance Transboundary Aquifers Transboundary Aquifers � 0 250 500 Kilometers 1,000 and management need to be strengthened. This includes both the institutional level with upgrading existing national groundwater-monitoring networks, and in particular, water laws and policies, and the technical level, to improve strengthening links between groundwater decision- the efficiency and quality of groundwater development. makers and meteorological institutions, are crucial National groundwater governance frameworks in Sahelian measures to be specifically targeted for improving countries usually need either review and upgrading of groundwater governance with reference to climate change existing water laws and policies or completing them and growing resource demand. This national governance with new regulations. Most of the necessary guidance shall also fully acknowledge the international nature of and tools for such sound governance were developed the regional aquifer systems covering the Sahel. However, as a Global Framework for Action consisting of a set of groundwater is still poorly integrated into the trans- policy and institutional guidelines, recommendations national level IWRM structures such as those established and best practices designed to improve groundwater for the Senegal river basin, the Niger river basin and management at country/local level, and groundwater the Lake Chad basin. At the national level, groundwater governance at local, national and transboundary levels. is also largely unregulated and rarely included in the Integrating climate variability aspects into water laws legal framework. In Easter Africa, the World Bank is and policies (e.g., drought and flood management plans, spearheading a regional program on transboundary provisions for Managed Aquifer Recharge schemes), groundwater cooperation, the Horn of Africa Groundwater strengthening national meteorological, hydrological, and for Resilience Program (P174867). water contamination that would otherwise occur in Crops are water demanding and not all areas are suited surface water storage facilities. The Bank is currently for crops and in order to avoid overgrazing, water must supporting the consultancy assignment “Mobilizing remain the limiting factor in areas with <250mm average Water Resources through Watershed Interventions in annual rainfall. Figure 10 shows the distribution of the Sahel”, whose objective is to seek practical guidance rainfall over a ten-year average, which large share of the on how to implement small scale storage interventions Sahel experience less than 300mm of rain. in Western Sahel in a way that maximizes effectiveness and hydrological dividends, and minimizes threats associated with fragile/conflict environments. What have we learned from WB experience I.5.  in the G5 Sahel? 47. This said, while increasing storage is a necessary condition for resilience, we need to be realistic: the 48. Though water security clearly contributes to Sahel is a dry environment with limited carrying resilience and conflict prevention, an opportunity is capacity in terms of people, livestock, and crops. being missed to tackle these three elements in tandem 22 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel through regional World Bank engagement in the G5 of these initiatives. On the Bank side, while the link Sahel. Current World Bank engagement in the G5 Sahel between water security - through both its productive region primarily focus on sectoral approaches linked and destructive dimensions - and resilience, fragility, and to infrastructure, food security, livestock, and human conflict is increasingly reflected in the growing proportion development. This includes providing a wide range of of water-related investments in the World Bank national support services, like water supply and sanitation, means portfolios (i.e., the US$400m Niger Integrated Water of production and livelihoods, community infrastructure, Security Platform Project (Niger-IWSPP, P174414) increased market accessibility. Figure 11 maps out some under preparation — see Box 6 — and a Water Security of the World Bank’s active sectoral investments in the project in Burkina Faso, whose preparation will start region (based on the GEMS/KoboToolbox database, in July 2021), it is seldom directly acknowledged in currently being completed). The total estimated World regional policies and programs. There are currently Bank commitment in the region amounts to over no regional programs on water security. The Sahel US$8.5 billion. However, to date, the WBG’s response Alliance, key coordinating entity for development to a regional crisis has been predominantly national (86 interventions in the region, does not have a specific pillar out of 109 projects in Western Africa are national,92 for on water security, and water — though fundamental 57 percent of total commitments) and single sectoral for the pillar on Agriculture, Rural Development and Food (76 percent). The existing pipeline is not much different, Security — is directly mentioned only under the pillar on with less than 25 percent of projects acknowledging Decentralization and Basic Services. Similarly, the World multi-sectorality and regional projects accounting Bank’s Risk and Resilience Assessment for the Sahel, for 17 percent of the total pipeline, for 36 percent of prepared under the aegis of the Sahel Alliance, mentions total commitments. From a country perspective, the water mostly when discussing access to land and other ministries that need to translate the integrated approach extractive natural resources, or in terms of access to on the ground remain siloed, and this is an additional potable water as a basic service. significant challenge for multi-sectoral coordinated interventions on the ground. Therefore, very frequently 50. Given the countries’ high economic dependence the types of intervention and level of implementation on transboundary waters, engaging in transboundary across different countries have been uncoordinated, water management and cooperation continues to be posing limits on curbing the transnational dimensions important as it helps mitigate risks to World Bank of FCV driving factors, including water security as investments by reducing exposure to transboundary one fundamental driver. The GEMS team is doing a issues. The dialogue on transboundary water tremendous job in compiling a database detailing the management and development is however likely to intervention areas of each project, aiming at — among further decrease once the two ongoing transboundary others — improving coordination at our portfolio level. water projects close (PGIRE closing in December 2022, Similarly, the Sahel Alliance also has a geo-referenced and the Kandadji project in 2027). Yet, even in our database listing the projects of its partners, though portfolio, exposure to transboundary water issues is not at such a high level of granularity as the GEMS/ high. Exposure to transboundary issues is defined here KoboToolbox. as a project triggering the application of the Operational Policy on Projects on International Waterways (OP 49. Moreover, the link between water security, 7.50), meaning that it can have implications for or be resilience, fragility and conflict remains largely affected by transboundary hydro-political decision unrecognized in regional policies and programs. making and water management, and associated Overall, there is a deficit of cross-border dialogues risks. In G5 Sahel countries, 15 (out of 138) active and on coordinated management of water resources and pipeline projects across all practices are exposed to regional harmonization of policies and plans regulating transboundary issues, representing 15 percent of total water uses, for instance pastoral water strategies. financial commitments in these countries (1.45 bn US$), Conventions on transborder transhumance committing and 16 percent of the IPF portfolio. Expectedly, the Member States of subregional and regional institutions majority of projects triggering OP 7.50 falls within the (ALG, CILSS, WAEMU and ECOWAS) have been ratified, Water Global Practice (with 52 percent of commitments but major efforts remain in the effective application exposed to transboundary water issues) followed by 92 We considered the regional projects covering at least one country of the G5 Sahel, and national projects in all five countries. 93 Van Der Wijngaart, R., Helming, J., Jacobs, C., Garzon Delvaux, P.A., Hoek, S. and Gomez y Paloma, S., 2019. Irrigation and irrigated agriculture potential in the Sahel: The case of the Niger river basin: Prospective review of the potential and constraints in a changing climate. JRC Technical Report. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 23 Spatial repartition of WBG portfolio mapping and conflict/prevention area in 2020, by key water Figure 11  and water-related sectors (the database is not yet complete) G5, Spatial repartition of WBG Portfolio mapping and Conflict/prevention area in 2020 MAURITANIA MALI NIGER CHAD BURKINA FASO World Bank projects Conflict and Prevention area Hight intensity conflict area Agriculture & Food Sources: (more than 30 violent events in 2020) Projects: GEMS/FCV World Bank Governance Conflict area: ACLED; World Bank Medium intensity conflict area The boundaries, colors, denominations and any other information Environment, Natural Ressources (more than 5 violent events in 2020) shown on this map do not imply, on the part of the World Bank Group, any judgement on the legal status of any territory, or any endorsement and the Blue Economy Conflict risk area or acceptance of such boundaries. 0 250 500 1,000 Water Sources: Esri, HERE, Garmin, Intermap, increment P Corp., GEBCO, USGS, FAO, NPS, NRCAN, GeoBase, IGN, Kadaster NL, Ordnance Survey, Esri Japan, Km METI, Esri China (Hong Kong), (c) OpenStreetMap contributors, and the GIS User Community Agriculture (42 percent). Yet, the connecting nature of results. In the decades since its first popular articulation water implies that also a share of the commitments of in the Dublin principles and then at the Rio conference the Urban, Environment, and Social Protection practices (1992), not only at the Bank but globally, IWRM has are affected, respectively, 28, 21, and 21 percent This become a basic goal of water resources management. stresses once again the importance of continuing World Eighty percent of the countries worldwide are now Bank engagement in transboundary water to support reported to have IWRM principles in their water laws, cooperation around its planning and management and and two-thirds have developed a national IWRM water reduce negative spill-over effects. plan. An important element of this implementation experience is the emphasis on the establishment and 51. In addition, to solve the full spectrum of water strengthening of a dedicated IWRM organization – hence security challenges that the G5 Sahel faces today, the strong emphasis in World Bank engagement in it is important to diversify the implementation Western Africa (and worldwide) onto the strengthening agencies, rather than reflexively recurring to RBOs. of River Basin Organizations (RBOs), like Senegal River As the recently concluded retrospective on World Bank Basin Organization (OMVS) and the Niger Basin Authority engagement on transboundary waters in Western Africa (NBA). However, the record of success of these dedicated explored, traditionally, RBOs have been the main World WRM organizations has been overall very low, as the Bank counterparts for regional water projects in Africa, in recently completed retrospective points out. . Many are name of the implementation of principles of Integrated only partially able to implement their agenda, and with Water Resources Management (IWRM), with mixed few notable exceptions, member states are reluctant 24 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel to empower RBOs beyond what is necessary to secure implementing partners to fit the specific realities on their direct interests.94 In the G5 Sahel region, only the the ground. Moreover, it would allow RBOs and their Senegal River Basin Organization is able to finance itself partners to focus on areas where change is feasible and and water developments and management is effectively on specific (sub-)regional problems that can be used to coordinated among the riparian countries. While RBOs build cooperation and develop operational programs. may not be best-placed to address the complexity of This requires a far greater understanding of the interests water security challenges in the G5 Sahel and their and incentives behind national decisions and positions, interconnectedness with a much wider range of societal member states’ resistance to reform, and their reluctance and economic problems, they nevertheless remain to engage.97 essential for many key water resources management functions - decision-making over large infrastructure, 53. The retrospective also concludes with a plea to transboundary information sharing and dialogue, increase support to national water institutions, which regional drought/flood alert systems, controlling play a key role in regional and national water security. pollution, etc., and as such a key stakeholder in regional Sustainable water management and development, water security. and service delivery are fundamental pillars of socio- economic development and conflict management, 52. At the same time, today specific water resource including peace-keeping and regional stability. management issues do not always concern the full river Strong national institutions can ensure appropriate basin or watershed. The river basin as a decision-making management and regulation of water resources, as and management unit therefore may not always be the well as financial sustainability of service providers. most conducive one to deal with all specific resource Strong institutions are also able to produce and enforce allocation issues.95 Real negotiation is driven by interests regulations like land zoning, land rights, and housing/ and incentives and takes place at different scales, be it grazing policies to secure a more equitable access to within or between states; management functions tend to water by all users and the long-term sustainability of be spread over local, national, regional institutions. Specific water uses. Beyond land policy, agricultural and energy instances of successful WRM involving bi or tri-lateral subsidies, social protection, and trade policy all have cooperation (see Box 4) show that it should be possible fundamental roles in enabling or hindering the impacts to develop a more outcome-oriented, interest-driven, of water policy, and hence have to be considered and flexible approach to IWRM by building collective when developing responses to complex water security action and cooperation around specific sub-basin and challenges at the national level.98 cross-border issues (or problems). A problemshed - as opposed to a generic watershed approach - could be 54. Though institutional reforms to improve public understood as a spatial unit where issues and actors service delivery remain a common theme in water unite, and around which collective action can be organized sector projects and programs, public agency staff due to proximity and more pronounced shared interests have rarely been considered to be key stakeholders. between neighboring regions or countries.96 Nonetheless, Reforms typically include a range of structural measures it is important to emphasize that the watershed/basin focusing on making systems and processes more remains the logical physical level for managing water transparent, accountable, and equitable. Increasingly, resources, but adopting a problemshed perspective attention has also focused on engaging communities allows for more flexibility in selecting partnerships and as stakeholders in the design and implementation of implementation arrangements based on the political programs to achieve better results. However, public economy and capacity to deliver. Thus, while a problem- agency staff - particularly front-line staff - have rarely driven approach does by no means preclude a role been considered key stakeholders, let alone “intervention for RBOs, the Bank should consider a broader set of points.” This pattern remains despite a commonly shared 94 Medinilla, A., 2018. African river basin organisations from best practice to best fit. DISCUSSION PAPER No. 236. Political Economy Dynamics of Regional Organisations in Africa. 95 K.A. Daniell, O. Barreteau. Water governance across competing scales: coupling land and water management. Journal of Hydrology, Elsevier, 2014, 519, pp.2367-2380. ff10.1016/j.jhydrol.2014.10.055ff. ffhal-01122042f 96 Mollinga, P.P., Meinzen-Dick, R.S. and Merrey, D.J., 2007. Politics, Plurality and Problemsheds: A Strategic Approach for Reform of Agricultural Water Resources Management. Development Policy Review 25, 699-719. 97 Medinilla, A., 2018. African river basin organisations from best practice to best fit. DISCUSSION PAPER No. 236. Political Economy Dynamics of Regional Organisations in Africa. 98 WGP, 2021. Water in the Shadow of Conflict: Water, forced displacement and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Water Global Practice, The World Bank (forthcoming). Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 25 The Volta Basin: an example of effective bilateral coordination: the management of the Bagré and Box 4  Akosombo dams The Convention providing the legal basis for the creation of the Volta Basin Authority (VBA) was adopted in 2007 by the basin’s six riparian countries, and the VBA itself was created in 2012. More than a decade later, the benefits for its member countries remain limited. Several reasons are responsible for this performance, not least the basin geography which is not conducive to basin- wide transboundary cooperation: First, there is a clear imbalance in the contribution of the riparian countries to the basin. Eighty-five percent of the basin area falls under the national boundaries of Ghana (42percent) and Burkina Faso (43percent); second most of the basin is drained by three independent river systems before they converge very much downstream (about 100 km from the basin outlet in the Gulf of Guinea) to form the Volta River, it makes many transboundary issues and interests limited to two or three countries that share a common sub-basin and third, most rainfall and runoff occur downstream, limiting the dependency of downstream riparians on the water flows coming from upstream countries. This may explain the late start in the transboundary cooperation process. However, this has not precluded Burkina Faso and Ghana that share most of the basin to collaborate at a bilateral And while VBA was being established, in 2005 and 2006, level. This relationship has been characterized as “somewhat Burkina Faso and Ghana developed a “Code of Conduct for cordial” until 1998 when Ghana experienced energy crisis Sustainable and Equitable Water Resources Management due to the reduced level of water at the Akosombo dam of the Volta Basin between Burkina Faso and Ghana”. This is — and blamed Burkina for increasing water withdrawals a non-conventional international collaborative instrument (less rainfall was the reason). Another issue that fosters — a rarity in shared water resources management in West collaboration between the 2 countries were the occasional Africa.99 spills from the Bagre dam built in 1992 in Burkina Faso which were believed to exacerbate flooding in Ghana. In the end, Today, hydro-meteorological data continues to be the two countries agreed that Ghana would provide power exchanged between the 2 countries, basically to assist in to Burkina to reduce its need to build dams in the Volta dam operations for the generation of power at Akosombo, basin. Interestingly, before the creation of the VBA, in 2004 Ghana. In the case of possible spilling from Bagré, Ghana and Burkina-Faso had signed a Joint Declaration, information is transmitted from the Société Nationale which acknowledged both countries’ common environmental d’Électricité du Burkina Faso (SONABEL) to the Volta River and water issues and expressed a desire to collaborate on Authority in Ghana which in turn relays the information to integrated management of the shared water. its regional offices in the affected areas. belief and significant research100 showing that the ASA (P169848) initiative to operationally validate an presence of committed and motivated public servants innovative approach called Field-Level Leadership (FLL). is a key determinant in improving the performance FLL leverages the motivation and behavior of public of government agencies. In April 2019, the World agency staff as a means to improve performance of Bank Water Global Practice embarked on an two-year water agencies. FLL constitutes a set of interventions 99 Garane, A., 2006. Study on the Evaluation of the Role of the Relevance of the 1997 UN Watercourses Convention for the Reinforcement of Transboundary water Related Co-operation and Conflict Management in West Africa 100 DiIulio and Dilulio (1994), Grindle (2004), Leonard (1991 and 2010), Pascale and Sternin (2010), Tendler (1998) 26 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel aimed at identifying and supporting a vanguard group 55. Hence, given the region’s investment needs and of change champions in public agencies, leveraging their the regional importance of water security to address initiatives and energy to transform the internal culture the ongoing crisis, there is considerable scope for and lead improvements in service delivery outcomes. WBG to scale up water-centered development FLL is based on the premise that such champions may support to the G5 Sahel countries - through a be in the minority but are not rare; that they exist at all regionally coordinated approach to tap on potential levels in the organization; that they can be systematically regional synergies, including improved coordinated identified and that their potential can be tapped. management of transboundary waters. Thus, there Originally developed by a group of public servants in the is a need for WBG to employ localized and regional Government of Tamil Nadu in southern India, FLL has approaches concomitantly to (i) invest in water security since then been systematized and successfully rolled out in fragility hotspots as part of post-crisis recovery; (ii) through the World Bank-financed projects in 12 different consolidate support to local communities and weakened public agencies. While the FLL approach addresses an institutions, experiencing heightened pressures from the important gap in the institutional reforms tool kit and influx of displaced populations — often centered around has broad applicability across public water agencies, access to water; (iii) support zonal development, focusing as yet it is not available widely. To date, the uptake has on structuring investments with cross border spill- been limited primarily by a relative lack of awareness over effects, including reducing migration by improving and systematic evidence of FLL effectiveness, but this livelihood opportunities; and (iv) support national situation is beginning to change now (see Box 5), as more monitoring and regulation of water resources and v) results on FLL impacts become available from the recent establish regional data and monitoring mechanisms implementation experience. promoting regional stability, ranging from data on water resources, regulation on water uses, to databases on pastoral water points. A woman-operated ONEA standpipe inOuagadougou, Burkina Faso.” Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 27 II. FORWARD LOOK 56. In the Sahel, water is central to socio-economic development. Today, climate change and soaring II.1. 14 Guiding Principles for a demands are adding pressures on economies and livelihood systems dependent on already depleted and Regional Program on Water degraded water resources. Access to water is often one of the principal, if not the main, magnifiers of conflict. Security in the G5 Sahel Since the potential of the main surface transboundary 58. To reflect the different scales of water security water resources is far from being fully exploited, regional challenges and thus diversify World Bank engagement coordination for their development and management in transboundary cooperation, the fourteen GPs needs to be improved, particularly in the Niger River are divided in i) cross-scale principles such as the Basin that is shared by four out of five G5 Sahel countries. overarching engagement approach covering both the However, even at the smaller, local, scale, several local/cross-border and regional levels, and proposed challenges around access to water resources need to be implementation arrangements for the whole program, addressed in a coordinated manner, in order to ensure as well as other principles related to data management that the full range of benefits are realized, including across and institutional strengthening; those related to (ii) ) the border or even regionally. The changing availability how to design local interventions which realize the full of water paired with the increased fragility of the region span of benefits, including at cross-border and regional suggests that our future engagement in regional water levels (for instance, improved water services (for security will require a paradigm shift. instance, improved water services for host communities and pastoralist water points in the areas crossed by 57. Between January and April 2021, and based transhumant groups); and (ii) how and where to engage on the information collected in Part I, the team in improving regional coordination for water security consulted with national and regional clients, CMUs, (for instance, for planning and management of large different donors, and colleagues in different Global infrastructure on shared water resources). Practices on what key elements a new engagement on water security in the region should include, to effectively address via the water lens key regional Cross-scale interventions challenges such as environmental migration, conflict, and fragility. Based on the feedback received and Guiding Principle 1. In the G5 Sahel region, the analysis of both the context and our portfolio and GP1 the nature of the challenges the region faces planning documents of the different clients, fourteen calls for a drastic shift in World Bank Guiding Principles (GPs) emerge to guide the design of engagement in water resources future engagement on regional water security in the G5 management, from normative thinking to a problem- Sahel. The final section then describes a proposal for a driven approach to water security and transboundary potential regional program on water security in the G5 water management. The problem-driven, or Sahel. Including a preliminary list of priority investments problemshed approach, pursued around articulated shared proposed by the clients (low hanging fruits), often out interests and focused on actionable interventions and of strategic national and regional development plans impact around one or more specific challenges, can help (summarized in Table 2), and a qualitative analysis of identify the appropriate level of dialogue and potential counterparts (summarized in Table 3). governance101,102 and has thus a higher chance of leading to water security. Adopting a problem-shed instead of a normative IWRM approach,103 allows to move away from prescriptive best practices to fully appreciate political 101 Daré, W., Venot, J-P., Le Page, C., Aduna, A., 2018. Problemshed or Watershed? Participatory Modeling towards IWRM in North Ghana. Water 10(6):721. 102 Hanasz, P., 2017. Muddy waters: International actors and transboundary water cooperation in the Ganges-Brahmaputra problemshed. Water Alternatives 10(2), 459-474 103 It is important to emphasize that the watershed/basin remains the logical physical level for managing water resources, but adopting a problemshed perspective allows for more flexibility in selecting partnerships and implementation arrangements based on the political economy and capacity to deliver. 28 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Figure 13 Summary of the Guiding Principles and “Theory of Change” of their impacts on regional stability Water is the backbone of the fragile socio-economic development in the G5 Sahel and its insecurity fuels instability in the region. HOW WHAT Local water insecurity GP6 GP7 GP8 GP9 GP10 GP11 GP12 Tackle local and improving livelihoods and GP1 regional water security coordination amongst water users together via a prob- increased lemshed approach to determine the right water scale and solution Cross cutting principles security GP2 Implementation arrangements should GP3 GP4 GP5 = reflect the scale of the increased problem by identifying the appropriate regional geographic level for dialogue and governance stability Improving cooperation around specific cross-border challenges Regional water insecurity GP13 GP14 HOW WHAT GP3 Strengthening both national and regional water GP9 Water needs of pastoralists institutions GP10 Improving performance of existing water GP4 Ensure coherence between key national public infrastructure (storage, irrigation, WSS) policies (Agricultural, local dvp,land policies,..) GP11 Development and implementation of viable and GP5 Innovation and technology as part of improving context-specific irrigation strategies water security in fragile areas, and monitoring GP12 Investing in catchment-based WRM and SLWM resources at the higher scale Improving access to basic services GP6 Integrated Territorial Approach GP13 Place large cities as users within the catchment GP7 Include red zones in intervention areas GP14 Leverage the Bank’s convening power for large GP8 Pilot phase and strong analytics, transformational infrastructure investments. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 29 economy perspectives as well as political and security groups, improving access to basic water services ones. This, in turn, makes it more effective in solving (together with other services, like education, issues and achieving water security. The focus needs to health, energy, roads) helps restore state- shift from river-centric transboundary cooperation citizen relationship and establish the state’s mostly at the regional level, where our engagement has legitimacy, which is a first step toward local and been focusing on since early 2000s, to addressing regional stability. Moreover, safely managed specific issues of water security in the region at different WSS services are indispensable components scales and around different water sources. Accordingly, of human capital, as they contribute to raising in the G5 Sahel, the Bank should pursue a two-pronged living standards, good health, and high labor engagement in water security: productivity. 1. Local water responses with cross-border and potentially To maximize their impacts, these responses may regional spill-over effects. Improving water security need a territorial/cross-border coordination. The at strategic locations can help address cross- area and scale of governance must be defined border and regional challenges through three main to inscribe the boundaries of the cross-border pathways: challenges that are to be addressed [see GPs 6 to 12]. a. Reducing environmental migration and decreasing pressure on host communities. Improving access 2. Regional response to water challenges directly to and management of water resources locally linked to the shared water resources that require a helps uplift the overall living conditions and holistic, integrated regional coordination because resilience of local communities, thereby reducing of the increased hydraulic interconnectedness, (or at least delaying) the need to migrate to such as development and management of large other regions, which often exacerbates or transboundary infrastructure or large water users/ creates new challenges in host communities. potential polluters (i.e., major cities, like Bamako or As an example, preservation or restoration of Niamey, or large irrigation schemes, like the Office du watersheds that provide resilience to floods and Niger in Mali) [see GP 13 and 14] droughts can boost shorter-term job creation while also providing long-term benefits. The Community-Based Recovery and Stabilization Project for the Sahel’s Three Borders area105 (Three b. Reducing farmers-pastoralists conflict. Pastoral Borders, P173830) is a promising example of movements in the Sahel do not know good complementarity between local and regional boundaries. By upgrading or developing water interventions in a fragile area (“orange” and “yellow” sources for pastoral use, new grasslands could zones). However, given the focus on recovery, water be opened up for grazing and pastoralist routes resources and possible conflicts around water access are could be diverted so as to delay or minimize only marginally considered. The regional Development encroachment in cropped areas. Response to Displacement Impacts Project in Eastern Africa (DRDIP, P164101) also demonstrates that local c. (Re)establishing citizens’ trust in the state water resource management activities can be used as and contributing to overall security. Policies vehicle to pursue both social cohesion and national and to strengthen national and regional water regional water security objectives. The project undertook resource management are likely to fail without targeted at -scale community-based watershed the foundations of a renewed social fabric restoration which (1) helps capture rainwater through and trust in institutions, both of which can labor intensive public works and (2) integrates host and be achieved through people- and area-based refugee communities. interventions.104 In fragile regions where resentment and perceptions of marginalization Guiding Principle 2. Implementation can result in violence or young disenfranchised GP2 arrangements should reflect the specific men are easy prey for extremist/terrorist issues being addressed and their scale. . In 104 WGP, 2021. Water in the Shadow of Conflict: Water, forced displacement and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Water Global Practice, The World Bank (forthcoming). 105 Corresponding to the Liptako-Gourma area. 30 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel line with a problemshed approach, the Bank should areas. The update of the inventory of pastoral explore options for counterparts for implementation water sources in Niger is a first step towards an beyond a reflexive recourse to RBOs as entry points. integrated planning for improving the pastoral The most effective scale for transboundary cooperation water network. is dictated by a specific issue or problem that more often than not is perceived at the sub-basin or cross- c. Local — At the local level, the key objective border scale, rather than at the whole river-basin level. is restoring trust via dialogue. This can be facilitated by supporting the individual a. Regional - The problemshed approach does not groups inside a community to develop needs preclude a role for RBOs — on the contrary, assessments and prioritization of activities that RBOs like OMVS and NBA remain important then the local governmental institutions will counterparts for decisions at the regional implement. In fragile contexts with weak state level, including knowledge brokerage for the presence, it is particularly important to rely on coordinated and informed development and organizations that have both the know-how and operations of large dams (where clear river community trust, be they NGOs, community- interconnectedness exists), allocating permits based organizations, private sector or other. As a for large water users, and enforcement of recent Bank-led and CIWA-funded diagnostic of certain legal instruments. Other regional civil society organizations in West Africa points organization could however also have stronger out, CSOs can play a key role to advance a water political leverage for strategic cooperation security agenda and contribute to the socio- around specific issues (like, migrants), for economic development of the region. In the G5 instance the G5 Sahel group, or CILSS. In certain Sahel, CSOs in Burkina Faso have demonstrated cases, setting up bilateral platforms of dialogues remarkable strength, leading to legal reforms, between countries, so they are able to exchange social movements, and changes of leadership. on key decisions, is also important. Guiding Principle 3. Ensuring sustainability b. National — Lessons learnt show that the GP3 of water security investments requires a involvement of national entities has been shift in the approach to institutional design limited. Therefore, a process of cooperation and capacity building, both at the national that helps build trust and deeper relations and and regional level. Given the key role of water in the G5 understanding between countries has to take Sahel, it is important to initiate a long-term process of place alongside national and local-level activities regional collaboration on water security across the G5 and capacity strengthening. One example is the Sahel countries that will take time to grow and mature. Niger-IWSP, which is implementing a sub-basin Experience shows that a long-term perspective is and local-level water platform for coordinated needed to build resilience, and to capitalize on water management and investments across cooperative management of (transboundary) water as a different sectoral ministries. National level regional public good. To be effective, water security institutions are important for the development interventions require strong water resources and management of large-scale irrigation, management institutions at both regional and national water supply, and sanitation investments. levels. While our past and on-going engagements in Moreover, they oversee the development and transboundary water have systematically included implementation of National Development Plans strengthening the regional institutions, they have not, in and are key actors in the much-needed update general, built the capacity for water resources of the inventory of pastoral water points, as a management at national level. And yet, “regional efforts first step towards an integrated planning for towards water security are much harder to deliver if improving the pastoral water network. They can individual countries do not have the institutions and set and enforce users’ rights, pollution control, capacity to manage water resources and are not land tenure arrangements, and so forth. They prepared to confront water extremes, such as floods and are also responsible for providing services like droughts”.106 health and education, that are key in fragile 106 WGP, 2021. Water in the Shadow of Conflict: Water, forced displacement and conflict in the Middle East and North Africa. Water Global Practice, The World Bank (forthcoming). Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 31 A less prescriptive and more adaptive approach site implied significant downstream impacts onto the to institutional design could be more successful ecologically rich and sensitive Niger Inner Delta as well at the national levels, by relying primarily on an as resettlement impacts. incremental transformation of the mandates of existing institutions, around concrete decision-making Thus, strengthening the technical, research processes, accompanied by setting of realistically and communication function of RBOs can be a achievable goals and provision of needed technical steppingstone towards regional knowledge brokerage, assistance. To date, the guiding institutional framework which is increasingly needed, given the many new for World Bank investments in integrated water transboundary infrastructures being coming online. resources management has almost always included Moreover, focusing efforts on fostering the continuity the establishment/strengthening of dedicated IWRM and effectiveness of the knowledge functions of RBOs agencies as a core intervention. This approach is may provide a greater return on investment than a problematic in environments of low state capacity and top-down blanket approach to organizational capacity meagre resources, as evidenced by a mixed record development. This should be expanded to groundwater, or organizational performance, with few successes currently largely absent in the RBOs programs. One limited to entities largely at regional levels (such as example is promoting transboundary governance OMVS). One way of strengthening these institutions is at the aquifer system levels clearly identified from supporting them in collection and dissemination of data, the hydrologic basins, and in this regard for instance fundamental for making informed decisions. supporting the on-going initiative for transboundary cooperation around the Senegal-Mauritanian Aquifer At the same time, at the regional level, RBOs have Basin (SMAB); and/or data exchanges on the Taoudeni a key role in centralizing technical and hydrological aquifer shared by Mali and Mauritania. knowledge. As such, they are best positioned to potentially unlock political deadlocks by diverting the Despite common beliefs and significant research pointing discussion on a less sensitive technical (undisputable) to the importance of committed and motivated public level. The successful process brokered by NBA around servants in improving agencies’ performance, national the site of the Fomi dam exemplifies this. Thanks to and regional level public agency staff –are still rarely NBA’s facilitation of evidence-based decision making considered key stakeholders in interventions. The Field- around Fomi Multipurpose Dam on the Niger River Level Leadership approach is showing promising results in in Guinea, the project was put on hold as the original improving the performance of water agencies (Box 5). Box 5 Field-Level Leadership: leverages the motivation and behavior of public agency staff as a means to improve performance of water agencies In 2020, FLL was implemented in the Addis Ababa customer records system have been modernized; Water and Sewerage Authority. After just one year, long-standing construction delays have been resolved the agency is benefitting from higher revenues without higher-level intervention; and multiple efforts and improvement in water delivery to least served are ongoing to initiate water savings at workplace. populations, and from less non-revenue water, and late arrivals at work. As a result of staff-initiated efforts, The positive results from FLL implementation in the Addis some branches have geo-mapped the water supply Ababa Water and Sewerage Authority have contributed network; efficiency at sludge transfer stations has to a significant increase in demand, beyond the originally increased by 37 percent; technical modifications have envisaged projects. As of early May 2021, 20+ projects been implemented to increase the hose limit on suction in water and other GPs, including collaborations with trucks from 30 to 42 m; mobile alerts to customers development partners, have requested or expressed to improve bill collection rates have been introduced; interest in implementing FLL with client agencies. Guiding Principle 4. Ensure coherence whether World Bank-funded or from other financing GP4 between key public policies and investments sources, should be leveraged to ensure coherence so that they do not increase tensions around between national and regional public policies. Several of water resources. Multisectoral engagement, the conflicts around access to water resources stem 32 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel from public development policies covering only certain the data to be compiled in the pilot phase (latest) would water users and not others. For instance, agricultural be an excellent reference point for full-fledged design development policies largely ignore pastoralists, which and implementation.  have been mostly invisible in national development policies; national pastoralist policies often do not Regardless of the tools used, it is very important consider harvest times for the farmers; etc. To work to ensure the integration of the latest scientific towards water security in the Sahel as a way to reduce research and technology with traditional practices and tensions and migration, it is important to contribute community needs. towards the alignment and coherency of the different national and regional agricultural policies, pastoral policies, local development plans, land use policies, land Preparing local water responses with cross- tenure policies, etc. It is equally important that these border and potentially regional spill-over effects efforts are mirrored by the Word Bank investments nationally or regionally and that the WBG operations also Guiding Principle 6. Adopting an Integrated have the same coherence. GP6 Territorial Approach allows to coordinate local water solutions with complementary Guiding Principle 5. Innovation and services in order to maximize cross-border GP5 technology as part of improving water and regional impact. The assumption here is that security in fragile areas. Several tools exist addressing cross-border water security challenges will that help the coordination amongst partners contribute to overall regional water security and and the remote supervision in fragile areas. The project resilience if coordinated through a holistic territorial geo-capacitation method (GEMS) was launched by the response, or Integrated Territorial Approach. The FCV group to improve Monitoring and Evaluation and adoption of an Integrated Territorial Approach is based supervision and monitoring by third parties in fragile on the premises that spatial prioritization and contexts. This is done by building the capacity of clients, coordination can (1) unify sectoral approaches in a partners and Bank teams in the field, to take advantage particular location, leveraging complementarities and (2) of low-cost open-source technology for real-time help tailor responses to local endowments and severity digital data collection and analysis. The use of GEMS of constraints. Such an approach brings in the question tools and methods enables operations to create of “where to invest” squarely alongside the question on customized digital M&E systems to improve “what to invest?”. Efforts for a more water secure region transparency and accountability for implementation would benefit from adopting the Integrated Territorial throughout the project cycle. Additionally, GEMS Approach for the following reasons: provides platforms for remote supervision, real-time risk and backup monitoring, and portfolio mapping for a. Under such an approach, a water security coordination between projects and partners. program would consider all the water needs of different users when developing water sources, However, more work is needed to complete the GEMS/ therefore bringing together the perspectives, Kobo ToolBox database and achieve a higher level of needs and potential impacts of these granularity, to the district level — which in turn will stakeholders in the design of a coherent and help better focus future interventions by facilitating coordinated intervention. Today, an irrigation coordination across programs. A strong recommendation project rarely considers pastoral or domestic is therefore to continue mapping WB interventions on water uses, a rural water supply project only the ground, to the level of communes or sites covered by considers the domestic needs and ignores the activities of existing projects. Though an extensive other productive uses of water, and so forth. exercise, it is fundamental information to improve A project on pastoralist water points rarely coordinated interventions in these key hotpot areas. considers parallel investments in rehabilitating grazing areas. Moreover, water investments Given recent geo-spatial and data accessibility, a user- need to be understood and planned within a friendly platform should be part of the project, including wider catchment perspective balancing the all relevant and free data sources related to water quality needs of upstream and downstream water and availability and integrated into tools such as Geo- users. In this sense, decisions that alter ESF (under development) and not just KoboToolBox. access to shared resources may need to be Many World Bank projects are doing this individually, but accompanied by complementary investments Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 33 Box 6 The integrated territorial approach in practice: the North & North-eastern Development Initiative (NEDI) and the Integrated Landscape Management approach piloted in Tunisia This approach was used to help prioritize interventions in Along similar lines, the Integrated Landscape Northern Kenya, which faces similar challenges as the G5 Management (ILM) approach described in Section Sahel, and piloted in Tunisia with very positive results. I.2.2 was successfully piloted in Tunisia through the Oases Ecosystem and Livelihood Projects (P132157). The North and North-eastern region of Kenya is The Project enabled the piloting of the ILM approach historically underserved and is performing below for oasis management in six representative oases in national average on development indicators. Poverty Tunisia. The fact that the Government requested a levels are extremely high at 70 percent, compared to 45 loan from the World Bank to scale-up the approach to percent national average. The road networks are poor all oases in the country (P169955) and in the lagging to nonexistent; electricity access is at 7 percent; only 45 North West and Centre West regions (P169955) percent of households have access to safe water and, only attests for its success and relevance. The project 26 percent have access to improved sanitation. also scored positive sustainability gains in awareness and capacity development, which are now anchored The area is arid or semi-arid and recurrent droughts create in local institutions and communities, with positive vulnerabilities for the population, 90 percent of whom policy implications for the future. ILM differs from ITA rely on livestock. Over the past decade, losses in livestock insofar as it focuses on livelihood opportunities, and populations due to drought related causes amounted generally does not include services such as water to nearly US$1.08 billion. Cattle rustling and resource- supply, electricity, health, etc. However, its focus based conflict are key sources of insecurity. Conflict in the on both the long-term process and its participatory neighbouring countries has also resulted in the protracted nature is very similar to those advocated by the presence of refugees in the region. ITA and reiterate once again the importance of an integrated, bottom-up, participatory planning and The Government of Kenya with World Bank support implementation exercise. launched in 2018 the US$1 billion North & North-Eastern Development Initiative (NEDI)107 in 2018 that increased Though these approaches are still not mainstreamed investments in the region with a special focus on in the G5 Sahel World Bank portfolio, their application transformative and integrated infrastructure investments focused on land and water as key coalescing resources and support to sustainable livelihoods. The NEDI program is being pioneered through the US$400 million Niger includes six individual yet spatially coordinated projects Integrated Water Security Platform Project (NIGER- across transport, water, energy, agriculture, livelihoods IWSPP, P174414 – see Box 7) in Niger and the US$350 and social protection in the North and North Eastern regional Food System Resilience Program project (FSRP, regions of Kenya. P172769), both under preparation. in governance, institutions, and effective social approach, which defines the areas in which protection systems for the poorest and most the members of the Sahel Alliance could work vulnerable populations. together by establishing a close dialogue on the ground which either use water as an input or b. Moreover, despite water being an excellent entry may affect its quality or accessibility. Focusing point for interventions in the G5 Sahel, achieving planning on a given area helps address all needs resilience and growth requires complementarity in a coordinated manner. with other services. Solutions must derive from coordinated transdisciplinary planning and c. This approach would help structure an implementation where investments in different institutional change as well, to reflect different socio-economic sectors complement and governance needs in a stronger cross-sectoral reinforce each other. The Sahel Alliance itself harmonization. To adequately address the highlights the need for an integrated territorial complex problems the region is facing, 107 http://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/556501519751114134/pdf/NEDI-Boosting-Shared-Prosperity-for-the-North-and-North- Eastern-Counties-of-Kenya.pdf 34 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel development initiatives and World Bank projects the potential benefits that targeting and continuing to must move away from the historical model engage such areas represent. For instance, the of design and implementation by individual International Crisis Group recommended reaching entities working in isolation towards ensuring marginalized regions with small-scale projects to deliver adequate consultations take place around a livelihood benefits.108 The joint World Bank Group (WBG) common and integrated vision for development. and United Nations (UN) Pathways for Peace report Cross-sectoral harmonization goes beyond identifies four “arenas of contestation”, around which the involvement of corresponding WB Global conflict takes place: (i) power and governance, (ii) service Practices and requires the active participation delivery, (iii) land and natural resources, and (iv) justice of all concerned sectors from the Government and security. Interventions to improve water security in side and synergies with all development actors. very fragile areas can help address these arenas of In line with the ITA, it would be helpful to have contestations. For instance, developing a water source in decision-making committees linked to a specific a way that addresses the water needs of different uses program or project, or project target area — could help reduce competition over land and water problem-centred water platforms. The aim is for resources — particularly in the G5 Sahel where the red these platforms to coordinate the development zones see frequent conflict between water users. and implementation of the integrated territorial Overall, these context-specific-designed interventions approach in a selected cross-border area. The can maintain and create jobs and boost economic growth platform would not be a legal entity in its own while restoring environmental services and natural right. Moreover, this decision-making body capital. They also have a peacebuilding potential: should leverage on what decision-making inclusive, context sensitive interventions along a do-no- bodies already exists in a given area, though it harm approach can also play a role in conflict prevention needs to represent all water users. (over scarce water resources), conflict settlement (providing water to different uses can mitigate existing The integrated territorial approach is not meant to conflicts) and contribute to long-term peace building. replace a watershed perspective but to include it at the appropriate scale. Strong hydrological analysis needs In these highly fragile areas, the critical factor that the to be embedded in the design of integrated territorial water security program should consider is not merely interventions (including analyzing how different water the provision of basic services, but instead triggering a uses will impact or be impacted by a given intervention). more systemic change toward (re)establishing the social Often, however, except than for large infrastructure, contract between the State and the local population. This hydraulic interconnectedness, which translates in can be supported by promoting the dialogue between specific issues/problems, only materializes at the sub- the State and the local population around the planning basin scale. Thus, while a watershed perspective is and provision of services, which, in turn, will raise State needed in the analytical/preparatory phase to assess the accountability and citizens’ trust in the State. Therefore, extent to which a given project is affected by or affects the program should adopt specific implementation and water uses upstream and downstream, from a project governance arrangements: management perspective a territorial approach seems more functional and effective, as it focuses on those a. Given the weak governmental presence, different actors with a stake in the issue/problem. communities need to play a larger role, from project design via a participatory needs and Guiding Principle 7. Targeting water-sector conflict assessment and ensuing prioritization GP7 interventions in the so-called “red-zones” of investments feeding into local development (i.e., red areas in Figure 5) of the G5 Sahel to plans, to monitoring and evaluation. Meaningful improve livelihoods and wellbeing could inclusion and management of their own contribute to broader efforts to mend the frayed activities by communities should be integrated socioeconomic fabric of communities affected by into the design of any program on water conflict and forced displacement. While these “red” security in the Sahel, but a well-thought zones are often avoided by international donors for through mapping of stakeholders’ roles security concerns, including by the World Bank, all and responsibilities for implementation and strategies aiming to address fragility and conflict point to 108 International Crisis Group, 2018. Frontière Niger-Mali : mettre l’outil militaire au service d’une approche politique. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 35 governance arrangements should also be part of of small works like water points in the Gao area in Mali, the pilot phase described under GP (viii). using local firms, as part of Regional Sahel Pastoralism Support Project I (PRAPS I, P147674), show that these b. In these fragile areas, it is recommended to interventions are not only necessary, but also possible. leave procurement and implementation to governmental entities, as a way of reengaging In situations of active conflict, it will be impossible to the State, improving its capacity to deliver and address some of the structural sector issues. However, raising its reputation among the local population. development actors should remain engaged to support the work of humanitarian and security actors through, c. Working through local partners with boots for example, data collection and sharing and capital on the ground and sound knowledge of the injections. local context, such as NGOs in charge of the supervision of certain activities or monitoring Guiding Principle 8. Allowing sufficient time and evaluation, can help ensure that local GP8 for a pilot phase, supported by strong customs and power dynamics are respected, analytics, before scaling up would help while also delivering project benefits through develop a better understanding of the less intrusive interventions. context on the ground and maximize the positive development impacts. In the G5 Sahel fragile and d. In these areas, a close partnership with resource-scarce setting, where development financing of humanitarian, peacebuilding, and security water related projects is a double-edged sword that both actors is fundamental. Particularly in fragile has the potential to alleviate poverty and to exacerbate contexts where large-scale peacekeeping conflict, it is important to start small. This allows time for missions are present, a multitude of actors (i) better understanding the reality on the ground, work in overlapping, but still distinct, sectors including conflicting interests and local power dynamics, on mitigating and transitioning from complex and (ii) testing and fine-tuning the concept before scaling crises. Such partnership has been developed up. This can be done within one project, for instance in the implementation of the Kandadji Project piloting activities in the first two-to-three years and then (P130174) intervening in the Tillaberi region scaling up in the remaining duration of the project, or as of Western Niger, through agreements on separate phases of a larger program. Consistently information sharing with other development leveraging strong analytics to inform project design can partners and governments,109 and regular help make the most of available information and best coordination with locally based NGOs like the structure such pilots, as the successful experience from Red Cross and UNHCR. Somaliland show. There, the engagement began with a pilot on water infrastructure, followed by a pilot in Because of harsh environments and challenges with support of livelihood services (Water for Agropastoral community cohesion, security and state influence, the Livelihoods Pilot Project, WARP, P152024). Based on the activities delivered in these areas need to be “light”, results of the pilots, technological options were quickly implementable and flexible to be able to rapidly expanded in another pilot, followed by an expansion in adapt to the changing security situation. A combination geographic coverage (under Water for Agro-pastoral between fast deliverable toolkits that can be distributed Productivity and Resilience, WALP, P167826). The Tunisia in one-day mission and more complex interventions, ILM example described in Box 5 also shows the like digging a well, is favorable. Sturdy, low-tech, importance of starting with a pilot. Accordingly, the minimal-maintenance, minimal-operation solutions preparatory work should include: are to be favored over high-efficiency solutions with high maintenance and governance requirements. Data a. Mapping of rural livelihoods to understand land collection through remote sensing - for instance on land uses and water needs of different groups and uses, topography, water resources - helps inform the potential competing interests. To support this choice of these investments. Successful implementation important aspect, the task team should also 109 The Kandadji Program is financed by eleven donors and the Government of Niger: African Development Bank (AfDB), The World Bank Group (IDA), Islamic Development Bank (IDB), West African Development Bank (WADB), French Development Agency (Agence Française de Développement, AFD), Arab Bank for Economic Development in Africa (ABEDA), Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) Bank for Investment and Development (EBID), Abu Dhabi Fund (ADF), Kuwaiti Fund (KF), Saudi Fund for Development (SFD), Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) Fund for International Development (OFID). 36 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel include an expert on socio-ethnic dynamics e. Incorporating (climate change) resilience since so much conflict can also be linked to considerations into project design. Climate tensions between groups. In very fragile area, change trends and risks need to be fully built this study should also include an analysis of the into planning, ensuring that infrastructure is conflict itself, to make sure interventions will “do climate-smart and resilient. For climate change, no harm”. the Water Global Practice has produced several guidance notes for task teams to evaluate the b. Sound understanding of conflict resolution robustness of projects to future scenarios such mechanisms and the scale at which they as the Decision Tree Framework and the Road operate to design the right type of intervention, Map “Building the Resilience of WSS Utilities including providing assistance to these to Climate Change and Other Threats”. The mechanisms. For instance, if conflict resolution methodologies proposed in these notes should mechanisms only exist at the very local level, be integrated consistently in all investment they will not be able to manage conflicts that prioritization exercises. The small and medium emerge from large projects. This is one of the infrastructure investments should for instance reasons for the Bank choosing to focus on small, consider the provisions identified in the decentralized investments in sand dams in World Bank’s “Resilient Water Infrastructure Somalia rather than rehabilitating the irrigation Design Brief”, which focuses on incorporating barrages on the Shebelle and Jabba rivers. resilience (to floods, droughts and high winds) into the engineering design of drinking water c. Land tenure arrangements, including the and sanitation infrastructure. By knowing the potential co-existence of a plurality of rights existing system and its vulnerabilities under and invisible users (mobile versus sedentary different future scenarios, decision-makers can communities). identify, among planned actions or proposed investments, which are most likely to help (a), (b), and (c) should include a gender analysis to fulfil the system’s objectives (service provision understand different perspectives, needs, and capacities and quality, for example) in the face of these of men, women, youth, elderly, differently abled, and different sources of uncertainty (population other vulnerable groups and incorporate them in the growth, migration, changing demand, climate planning and implementation. change, etc.). While such approaches have not been applied in the G5 Sahel, in Kiribati they d. Sound hydro(geo)logical knowledge at basin have supported the identification of water scale when selecting investments and in sources to be developed and supported under planning their operation, including proper a project under preparation and in Lima, Peru, consideration of scenarios of future water they have allowed for the prioritization of availability. Currently, data on the availability investments towards water services resilience of water resources remain scant. In most among the long list featured in the service countries, water resources are only monitored provider’s Master Plan. in the areas covered by Regional Basin Organizations, thanks to continuous donor Though (d) and (e) apply to all water-development support. However, it is fundamental to conduct projects, getting it right is even more critical in fragile studies on water availability at the sub-basin contexts, to avoid doing any harm. and administrative areas levels, as these are the scales at which most decision making happens. Guiding Principle 9. Addressing the water Such analysis has recently been carried out GP9 needs of pastoralists is a matter of regional for Iraq110 to help governorates visualize their security. It is key to help mitigate farmer- water balances as a step towards updating pastoralist conflicts, which, we know, extend the national strategy. This should include a beyond borders. Supporting the joint development and breakdown of the flows needed to maintain sustainable management of water points for livestock, ecosystems and ecosystems services. linking access to water and access to grazing, enhances /operationsportalws.worldbank.org/Pages/DocumentProfile. 110 https:/ aspx?projectid=P163615&DocId=56&IsCovGen=true&removePublic=false&stage=AUS Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 37 pastoral mobility as a key element of pastoral and “last mile” is especially important to alleviate women’s ecosystem management. Well-planned water resources burden of collecting water. Other infrastructures that development enhances both livestock and grazing land were originally designed as multi-purpose, now only productivity by first opening up new grazing resources, provide single-use services. In turn, there is ample second increasing the efficiency of feed utilization by possibility to retrofit projects to benefit more sectors (e.g. reducing the distance animals have to walk to the water from single purpose to multipurpose storage). In point, third reducing animal disease with improved water Burkina-Faso, one of the Government’s top priorities for access. Additionally to developing water for drinking, water resources management is the rehabilitation of improving water buffering to extend grassland several dams. The Government of Mali highlighted the productivity in time can delay migration of pastoralists need of rehabilitation and maintenance of the existing toward cross-border farmed areas thereby alleviating Manantali, Sotupe2, Markala, and Selingue dams — tensions between these two groups as this would give though national investments, key for water security in farmers just enough time to harvest the crop before the region. Other investments to improve the water use livestock enters the fields. Given the economic efficiency and productivity of large-scale irrigation importance of the livestock (and pastoral) sector, include those proposed by the Government of Mali on developing pastoral water points must be seen as a key the rehabilitation of the Office du Riz de Segou and Office economic strategy. du Niger. However, any investment in rehabilitation or modernization of existing irrigation schemes must be Moreover, as water resource development is one of the contingent on the actual implementation (beyond simple most demanded interventions by pastoralists, well- promises) of major progress toward structural reforms to implemented water points can be a major step towards create the incentives needed to achieve sustainable high (re)gaining pastoralists’ trust. On the implementation performance. side, the planning, design and management of water points need to be fully harmonized with the productivity Guiding Principle 11. Increasing agricultural potential of the surrounding grassland and respect GP11 productivity hinges upon the development its seasonality, and their use regulated by clear rights, and implementation of viable and context- including the definition of priority uses. Given the highly specific irrigation strategies that account for sensitive and contested nature of water in agro-pastoral water resources availability, capacity building needs areas, experience gathered in the PRAPS I highlight the and other factors influencing production and successful application of the social engineering approach marketing. The case for investing in irrigation is for inclusive design and implementation of pastoral compelling: it is a source of improved productivity and water infrastructure. The National Strategies for Pastoral output, increased rural incomes and employment, and Water Points of Mali, Niger, and Chad, are additional food security at both local and national level. However, important guidelines for the concerted development irrigation investments face numerous economic, and management of pastoral water points, identifying technical, institutional and financial constraints that can priority zones and types of interventions. only addressed if projects build on a comprehensive irrigation strategy. A viable irrigation strategy selectively Guiding Principle 10. Improving the supports a variety of fit-to-purpose irrigation typologies GP10 performance of existing infrastructure in terms of water source mobilized (river, groundwater, provides high positive impacts with relatively and water harvesting for supplemental irrigation), simple interventions. There is a huge system size and type of ownership and management opportunity in the G5 Sahel region for improving the (small-medium scale, private/village-cooperative/PPP), performance of existing infrastructure, from storage to in order to match the specific context. The role of the irrigation to water supply systems. Many infrastructures private sector can vary significantly depending on the exist which are in a state of disrepair, or whose efficiency context, and as such, it should be devoted particular can be significantly improved. This is the case of many attention. Often, different water sources could be used in dysfunctional water supply systems, particularly in rural alternate combination, such as the conjunctive use of areas, which, if rehabilitated or improved, would surface and groundwater. However, in order to avoid significantly ameliorate rural access to safe water and groundwater overdraft, it should be carefully planned sanitation, with the corresponding human capital and regulated at the scheme or (sub) basin level.111 benefits, and reduce water-borne diseases. Serving the 111 World Bank, 2006. Conjunctive use of groundwater and surface water. Agriculture&Rural Development Notes. Issue 6. 38 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel Moreover, a profitable and sustainable transition from productivity, while mitigating water-based hazards rainfed to irrigated agriculture requires carefully planned and resource-based conflicts – with frequent cross- capacity building and support (note: detailed livelihood borders benefits. Land and natural resource degradation assessments are critical in structuring such activities). cause loss of land productivity and livelihoods and are a This requires, amongst others, a higher degree of main contributing factor of conflict and migration. In fact, farmer organization and professionalization centered soil fertility is the second-most limiting factor for on communities of smallholders rather than individual agricultural development and productivity in the Sahel, smallholders.112 Ongoing studies indicate possible future calling for a much better integration of soil fertility pathways towards a viable irrigation sector incorporating management and water development projects. As part public-private partnerships, agribusiness and of this, biodiversity protection and conservation must be smallholder collaboration, and commercially-oriented considered as an integral part of agricultural development of smallholder irrigation using technologies development and natural resource management ranging from water harvesting to small community- initiatives. In fragile ecosystems, like the G5 Sahel, the based schemes (see ASA on Water Security in Burkina practice of protecting and preserving the wealth and Faso, P174857). variety of species, habitats, and genetic diversity proved to be an important element in improving human health, The illusion of abundance that the availability of wealth, food, energy and services, including ecosystem irrigation in arid areas can create incentives for water- functions (such as fertilizing the soil, recycling nutrients, demanding crops unsuited to these regions, which may regulating pests and disease, controlling erosion, and result in resource exhaustion, particularly of “invisible” pollinating crops and trees). groundwater,113 and in more vulnerable agricultural systems. This has happened in several places around Moreover, past projects have largely focused on the the world, including Spain and California. Thus, while mobilization of “traditional” sources of water, mostly necessary, these investments must be combined surface but recently also groundwater. Yet, there is huge with policies and regulation mechanisms promoting untapped potential for runoff and flood harvesting, sustainable water use.114 provided sound hydrological analysis is embedded in the planning. This implies analyzing the (sub)catchment Finally, choosing crops that have a higher productivity inter/intra-annual and multi-year water balance to in terms of kcal/ha instead of kg/ha while consuming assess harvestable surpluses and understand how less drop per crop, such as tubers and roots, represents local on-slope buffering is connected to the wider a cross-sectoral water-sensitive adaptation measure. catchment hydrology. If combined, water harvesting at While tubers and roots grow generally in wetter areas, the catchment level combined with sustainable land growing them in drier zones would require less irrigation management to control erosion and regenerate soils is water than crops like rice and maize, for instance, which a win-win: it buffers against droughts while preventing are less caloric yet widely promoted in these dry areas. disruptive floods downstream. Water buffering combined with land and soil regeneration enhances Therefore, irrigation investments in the G5 Sahel land productivity, retains more water in the catchment countries should support a broader, more integrated for multiple uses, prevents that excessive runoff turns vision of irrigation that incentivizes water savings. into damages downstream, and protects downstream infrastructures from sedimentation. Guiding Principle 12. Improving the natural GP12 capital by investing in catchment-based The Sirba basin, shared by Burkina Faso and Niger, WRM, SLWM, and Farmers-Managed illustrates the importance of these interventions: highly Natural Regeneration115 practices at scale is degraded on the Burkina side, the erosion causes violent key to supporting livelihoods and agricultural and suddenly floods that more and more frequently lead 112 Lankford, B. 2009. Viewpoint — The right irrigation? Policy directions for agricultural water management in sub-Saharan Africa. Water Alternatives 2(3): 476-480 113 Damania, R., Desbureaux, S., Hyland,M., Islam, A., Moore, S., Rodella, A-S., Russ, J., Zaveri, E., 2017. Uncharted Waters : The New Economics of Water Scarcity and Variability. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank. https:/ /openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/28096 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO. 114 WGP, 2021. Ebb and Flow: Water, Migration, and Development. Water Global Practice, The World Bank. 115 FMNR is a highly effective agroforestry solution, characterized by technical simplicity and low cost. It consists of pruning seemingly dead tree stumps and carefully managing their regrowth (rather than planting new trees), Initially developed in Niger, where over 5m hectares have been successfully restored with FMNR, the method is now spreading across Africa and South East Asia. Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel 39 to damage in Niamey. The FSRP is intervening in this In addition, WSS projects can no longer afford to focus area, with watershed restoration on the Burkina side only on the urban space and must account for other and flood control structures on both banks in the lower uses and broader availability and management of water valleys, but much remains to be done. resources. Some cities in the G5 Sahel are already putting these principles in practice in line with the Water Finally, wetlands of the Sahel, among which, the Niger in Circular Economy and Resilience (WiCER) approach. In Inner Delta and the Lake Chad feature most prominently, Ouagadougou, ONEA has engaged the private sector to have an enormous role to play in sustaining local roll out WSS services in hard-to-reach, unplanned areas livelihoods and providing a large range of social and and to reinforce the sanitation service chain, ensuring ecosystem services such as buffering flash floods and masons are trained to build latrines up to code and water quality. Therefore, the sustainable management accessible, pit emptiers are well organized to access and regeneration of wetlands should be seen as an customers needing their latrines emptied, and sludge integral part of the World Bank strategy for water treatment infrastructure is well developed with a focus security in the region. on avenues for reuse. Increasing focus is being placed on the availability and knowledge of water resources to For the success of these interventions, it is critical to ensure Ouagadougou can diversify its supplies from the combine adaptation measures to enhance the resilience Ziga dam reservoir.116 of natural capital, and economic measures for enhanced resilience of people. Guiding Principle 14. Leveraging the World GP14 Bank’s convening power would help better steer decisions around large game-changing Preparing a regional response to water infrastructure for regional (water) security. challenges directly linked to the shared Large dams such as the one under construction in Kandadji, Niger, have the potential to increase irrigation water resources and electrification. As such, they could be seen as part of a “big push” package of investments,117 increasing Guiding Principle 13. Securing long-term expectations related to future economic performance GP13 water security for the large urban and acting as a multiplier of investments that follow, agglomerations in the region will require leading to a takeoff in economic growth. At the same placing cities as a user within a catchment or time, dams displace people. Benefits largely depends on problemshed. As the economy, ecosystems and well- where communities live and their ability to adapt to being in these cities are inherently connected to water changes in cropping and irrigation patterns. A closer look security, future water-services focused projects must at the complementary interventions needed to achieve a place the city as a user within the broader catchment and more equitable distribution of benefits is necessary as problemshed to ensure water resources are a key compensations mechanisms largely rely on imperfect consideration in decision-making. Once again, markets and institutions to alleviate the adverse impacts investments cannot prescind from through catchment- of dam construction, and its long-term impacts. level water balance assessment considering multi-year water variability and climate change projections of future Whether the Bank finances these large investments or water availability. As water availability decreases and not, there is a great value to engage in dialogue through becomes more unreliable, and cities grow, urban water water platforms with governments, regional agencies, security will depend on expanding beyond an access- and other development partners to ensure that focused approach towards the delivery of resilient and solutions around these large dams are well identified inclusive services that make the most of existing and implemented. The Bank is uniquely positioned infrastructure, managing demands, designing out waste to drive/moderate the decision-making process and pollution through efficiency and resource recovery, around some of these key infrastructure investments, and the regeneration of natural systems and closing the for three key reasons: (i) to ensure that the proper water services cycle. conditions are satisfied in terms of safeguards, in line with international best practice, for instance for the 116 World Bank. Forthcoming. Burkina Faso Water for Development. 117 World Bank, 2020. Creating wealth, improving lives, and securing the environment: Transforming Agriculture and Ensuring Land and Water Management for a Resilient Sahel. Africa SD Priorities for the G5 Sahel Countries. 40 Strengthening Regional Water Security for Greater Resilience in the G5 Sahel protection of critical ecosystems like the Niger Inner national to a regional-centered project by making it Delta (ii) to encourage a broader spatial development economically attractive to a larger number of riparian package to promote economic growth and livelihoods states by guaranteeing sufficient low flow for various and achieve a more equitable balance between local uses (agriculture, fisheries, ecosystem, etc.) downstream and national/regional development, and (iii) to bring in to Nigeria, and phasing dam construction to allow for other financiers to the table. the full implementation of resettlement in Niger before impacting Mali. The Bank is also leading the financing For instance, World Bank involvements have succeeded and steering the resettlement plan, the successful to avoid major irreversible decisions with high impacts. completion of which is a prerequisite for impounding the In the case of the Kandadji dam on the Niger River area and start enjoying the benefits derived from the in Niger, the Bank’s engagement helped shift from a services of the reservoir. The Niger Integrated Water Security Platform Project (P174414) spearheading the water security Box 7  agenda in the region. A Sahelian country, Niger faces a number of mutually capacity to engage citizens, raise their awareness, and reinforcing challenges aggravating water security118 - promote climate-smart behaviours. To respond to this including poverty and a lack of economic diversification, reality, the project intends to promote socio-economic high climate variability, natural resource degradation, development through: (i) strengthening the management fragility and rapid population growth. Niger’s pervasive of water resources, (ii) supporting increased access poverty is intertwined with the complete reliance of entire to water services, and (iii) improving the resilience of communities on the exploitation of natural resources. livelihoods to climate variability in select areas of Niger. In particular, interventions would span the areas of “water The Niger Integrated Water Security Platform (IWSP) writ large”: water resource management and ecosystems Project seeks to overcome these challenges through an regeneration, irrigation and optimized rain-fed agriculture, integrated platform approach to water-related planning, flood management, and sustainable and safely managed policies and investments that reduce fragility, increase drinking water and sanitation. broad-based resilience to climate variability, and lay the foundations of socio-economic development in Niger. The project thus aims to foster cross-sectoral coordination This systematic approach would aim to support self- and promote the link between water services development reinforcing livelihood-enhancing interventions from (WSS, irrigation) and water resources management at the household level to the provincial level, and crucially, the national scale, creating a platform for urban uses and overcome issues around the protection, management priorities to be weighed within the broader water balance, and knowledge of water resources and associated natural while existing engagements have emphasized the reduction environments. This will be facilitated by strengthening the of non-revenue water and improved services efficiency. 118 Water security is defined as “the availability of an acceptable quantity and quality of water for health, livelihoods, ecosystems and production, coupled with an acceptable level of water-related risks to people, environments and economies plays.” (Grey and Sadoff, 2007)