97388 TOOLS TO UNDERSTAND SOCIAL ISSUES IN ENERGY TARIFF AND SUBSIDY REFORMS IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA TOOLS TO UNDERSTAND SOCIAL ISSUES IN ENERGY TARIFF AND SUBSIDY REFORMS IN EUROPE AND CENTRAL ASIA THE WORLD BANK | 2015 © 2015 The World Bank Group 1818 H Street, NW Washington, DC 20433 Telephone: 202-473-1000 Internet: www.worldbank.org All rights reserved. This paper has not undergone the review accorded to official World Bank publications. The findings, interpretations, and conclusions expressed herein are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development / The World Bank and its affiliated organizations, or those of the Executive Directors of The World Bank or the governments they represent. The World Bank does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this work. Rights and Permissions The material in this publication is copyrighted. Copying and/or transmitting portions or all of this work without permission may be a violation of applicable law. The World Bank Group encourages dissemination of its work and will normally grant permission to reproduce portions of the work promptly. For permission to photocopy or reprint any part of this work, please send a request with complete information to the Copyright Clearance Center Inc., 222 Rosewood Drive, Danvers, MA 01923, USA; telephone 978-750-8400; fax 978-750-4470; Internet: www. copyright.com. Cover photo: Tomislav Georgiev / World Bank A family prepares coffee on a Primus stove following a power outage in FYR Macedonia. Blackouts are a concern for many families - particularly poor ones - throughout the country. TABLE OF CONTENTS Abbreviations.................................................................................................................................... V I. Why This Toolkit?.......................................................................................................................... 1 II. Social and Political Challenges in Energy Tariff Reforms............................................................. 4 III. Research Tools............................................................................................................................ 6 Qualitative Assessment of Household Perceptions and Impacts.................................................6 Stakeholder Analysis........................................................................................................................13 Designing a Stakeholder Analysis...................................................................................................14 Research Questions.........................................................................................................................16 Conducting Stakeholder Analysis...................................................................................................17 Analyzing the Data—Mapping Stakeholders...................................................................................17 Analysis of Perceptions of Reforms................................................................................................21 Validating Findings...........................................................................................................................21 Outputs.............................................................................................................................................22 References......................................................................................................................................... 23 Annex I. Examples of Terms of References...................................................................................... 24 Qualitative Assessment: Household Impacts and Acceptability of Energy Reforms—Terms of Reference..................................................................24 Guide for Focus Group Discussions................................................................................................27 Guide for Ethnographic and In-Depth Interviews...........................................................................41 Institutional and Political Economy Assessment of Energy Sector Reforms—Terms of Reference ..........................................................................................44 Annex II. Case Studies of Political Economy Analysis in the Energy Sector..................................... 48 iii FIGURES Figure 1. Regulation and governance in the Kyrgyz Republic power sector ....................................... 19 Figure 2. Stakeholder Mapping Based on Interests and Influence......................................................20 Figure 3. Stakeholder Mapping in Table Format...................................................................................21 Figure 4. Disbursement schedule..........................................................................................................27 Figure 5. Trends in Energy Consumption...............................................................................................30 TABLES Table 1. Tools for Conducting a Stakeholder Analysis.........................................................................17 Table 2. Focus group composition.........................................................................................................28 Table 3. Measures to cope with energy expenditures...........................................................................33 Table 4. Experience, incentives, and challenges with energy-saving measures................................. 33 Table 5. Types of cash and noncash formal assistance received by recipients of the group............ 35 Table 6. Comparison of different options for delivering energy subsidy support............................... 36 Table 7. Issues interacting with energy service providers....................................................................38 Table 8. Priority measures that will increase acceptability of reforms/tariff increase....................... 39 Table 9. Willingness to pay ....................................................................................................................39 Table 10. Willingness to pay—conditions..............................................................................................40 iv ABBREVIATIONS CDD community-driven development CMU country management unit DH district heating ECA Europe and Central Asia EI ethnographic interview ESW economic and sector work FGD focus group discussion IDI in-depth interview PEA political economy analysis PSIA poverty and social impact analysis NGO nongovernmental organization TOR Terms of Reference TTL task team leader v I. WHY THIS TOOLKIT? This toolkit aims to help World Bank task teams understanding of household vulnerabilities and working on energy subsidy and tariff reforms to resilience through the reforms, and help inform develop qualitative analysis tools. The tools that the design of mitigation and communication are described in this document can help task measures (Box 1). teams to better understand and address social and political challenges related to these reforms, Qualitative research methods are exploratory, including impacts of reforms and political designed to offer a broader view on a topic or economy constraints. This toolkit shares lessons problem. They are not meant to be conclusive and research tools developed during analyses or provide quick policy answers and solutions. of energy tariff and subsidy reforms in ECA. In Rather, they add value by describing the wider FY13–FY14 alone, the World Bank has been context in which a policy debate occurs from involved in providing guidance to over fourteen the perspective of different stakeholders. In countries in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) complement to other research methods, such region on these reforms. World Bank assistance as quantitative analysis and policy simulations, to ECA countries ranges from advice on the qualitative methods can provide the broader design of energy sector policies to understanding contextual framework, and/or raise new and mitigating poverty and social impacts. issues to consider in the reform analysis. Stakeholder analyses are usually undertaken This toolkit describes two sets of methodological as part of political economy analysis (PEA). approaches to understanding social issues in They assess obstacles and bottlenecks in the energy tariff and subsidy reforms: implementation of reforms that arise from the power dynamics and interests of various nn qualitative assessment of household stakeholder groups. They suggest measures perceptions and impacts to facilitate specific reform actions such as nn stakeholder analysis enabling stronger coalitions for reform and These two sets of tools are qualitative research building the capacity of stakeholders with low instruments. Qualitative assessments look power but potentially high interest in reforms’ into poverty and social impacts of reforms, outcomes to engage in the policy dialogue. (Box and factors that drive acceptance/opposition 2) These two analytical tools have contributed to to reforms, from the perspective of diverse the cross-sectoral analysis on energy reforms social groups. They contribute to a better produced by the ECA Community of Practice on 1 BOX 1. VALUE OF QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENTS IN ENERGY SUBSIDY AND TARIFF REFORM PSIA Qualitative assessments permit in-depth description and analysis of social processes, which complement quantitative data. For example, they: • Reveal underlying assumptions and beliefs of energy customers, which underlie their behaviors. In Tajikistan, focus group discussions showed widespread reluctance to invest in certain energy efficiency improvements—plastic windows, more efficient light bulbs—out of concern for their adverse health impacts. • Draw attention to attitudes to and information about reforms and social assistance mechanisms, which impacts overall acceptance of reforms. For example, respondents across all countries included in the research demonstrate limited understanding of the need for energy tariff increase. Tariff increase is often perceived as being driven by corruption or mismanagement in the sector. The majority of energy consumers are not aware of cofinancing mechanisms for energy efficiency in their countries. In some contexts, vulnerable customers do not understand the eligibility criteria for social assistance benefits to support energy payments. • Highlight factors of vulnerability that cannot be captured through quantitative research, but can inform the design and potential effectiveness of mitigation measures. In Armenia qualitative research revealed the widespread use of fuels that do not have monetary value, such as collected wood, manure, cotton stalks, and other biofuels. In Tajikistan, qualitative research revealed a higher than expected energy expense burden on rural households, including contributions to heating of social buildings, suggesting the need for additional support to bolster energy security of rural communities. Research in Bulgaria pointed to an enhanced vulnerability of many rural and small town residents to electricity tariff increase due to its role in subsistence food production (electrically powered water pumps for irrigation of home plots, freezers for refrigeration). In all countries, qualitative research has confirmed the uneven patterns of energy expenses through the year, especially expenses for purchasing solid fuels, and consequently indicated consumers’ preferences for aligning social assistance allowances to this pattern of expenses. Qualitative assessment findings can also help improve the design of quantitative surveys. For example, they can highlight the need to collect energy expenditure data separately for heating and non-heating seasons to capture seasonal variations, as well as to better account for non-cash energy spending burdens, such as the time and labor involved in collecting fuels. Energy Subsidy Reforms over the past two years. reforms that motivate the use of qualitative and This toolkit presents a practical guide to stakeholder or political economy assessments. applying the two sets of tools described above. Chapter III provides a step-by-step guide Chapter II presents a brief overview of the types to conducting qualitative assessments and of social and political challenges in energy tariff stakeholder analyses of energy tariff reforms 2 BOX 2. VALUE OF STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS IN ENERGY SECTOR REFORMS Stakeholder analysis seeks to provide development actors with in-depth knowledge of stakeholders, their role and incentives in the reform process, and highlight obstacles to reform implementation. This information is valuable for identifying ways to facilitate the progress of reforms. Stakeholder analysis is but one component of a PEA that has a much broader scope, and may include such elements as historical background of the sector and reforms, institutional and governance arrangements of the sector, existing status quo and acceptability of the reforms, and so on. If time and resources allow, a task team may consider conducting a PEA. PEAs in Belarus and Romania, for example, proved critical to providing insight into the energy sector and challenges of the reforms. In Belarus, the PEA has described an entrenched social contract, based on a paternalistic role of the state. In this context, consumers widely view the supply of affordable energy as a social entitlement, and the government and all state institutions uphold this belief. Highly centralized decision making prevents energy sector institutions such as multiservice utilities from influencing the reform process, while at the same time these institutions would be under strong pressure to adapt should reforms progress further. The analysis proposes a menu of recommendations, including more open communications of reform and capacity building for key sector institutions. In Romania, a comprehensive PEA of electricity and gas market liberalization has identified a number of areas that have obstructed progress of reforms. These include conflict of interest in certain appointments and decision-making functions, weak capacity of key stakeholders (such as regulatory and anti-corruption institutions), and financial constraints, among others. The analysis highlights the lack of strong internal champions, with reforms being driven primarily by external actors. It has identified a set of actions that could help increase internal support for reforms. based on the ECA experience. Annex I contains reference table to case studies of PEAs of energy Terms of Reference (TORs) for all analytical tools subsidy and tariff reforms conducted by the described in the Toolkit. Annex II provides a World Bank. 3 II. SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CHALLENGES IN ENERGY TARIFF REFORMS Qualitative research in energy tariff and subsidy households’ access to affordable reforms has been used to understand the energy. These measures can include following issues: (1) household vulnerability government-supported actions such and impact on basic needs; (2) the adequacy of as social assistance, employment/ mitigation policy options; (3) the prevailing social income-generation activities, or support contract; (4) citizens’ awareness of and attitudes for energy efficiency measures, among toward service providers and the reforms; and (5) others. Qualitative research can help political economy obstacles and opportunities to policy makers identify positive coping the implementation of reforms. Understanding mechanisms to support. It can also each of the areas below contributes to designing advise on preventing negative coping socially sustainable reforms along a more mechanisms, such as reduced school politically feasible course of action. attendance or delayed visits to doctors. nn Household vulnerability and impact Qualitative research assesses awareness, on basic needs refers to the overall experience, and perceptions of existing impact that rising energy costs present mitigation measures and opinions on to households’ well-being; for example, prospective mitigation policies. their continuous ability to access nn The prevailing social contract provides sufficient energy for their basic needs, the context on which social acceptability coping mechanisms, the impacts on of reforms is based. It refers to a host livelihoods, and so on. In addition, of factors including entrenched cultural qualitative research may help identify beliefs (for example, on the role of the groups that are disproportionately state), trust in institutions, strength of affected by reforms, either due to consumer rights and accountability their identity, location, distinct living channels, and so on. conditions, socioeconomic status, or nn Citizens’ awareness of and attitudes other factors. toward service providers and the nn Adequacy of mitigation policy options reforms helps assess the perceptions of refers to the range and effectiveness consumers about reforms and how these of existing and prospective measures contribute to consumers’ behavior. Such that can improve or help sustain analysis helps explain the relationship 4 BOX 3. TAILORING SOCIAL ASSESSMENTS TO PENDING POLICY QUESTIONS Qualitative assessments are often used with regard to a broader set of energy liberalization policies. However, they can also be tailored to specific policy questions related to energy reforms. In Ukraine, qualitative research methods were used to consult with consumers on the topic of transitioning to consumption-based billing for district heating. Twenty-six focus group discussions were carried out in two cities in Western and Eastern Ukraine to discuss aspects of district heating billing and the potential installation of heating meters. In Poland and Bulgaria, qualitative assessments explored incentives and obstacles for building-level energy efficiency investments. Conducting the studies on a concrete topic across countries also allows lessons to be shared within the region. Given the flexible nature of qualitative research, studies conceived around a specific policy question (such as metering or energy efficiency) often generate discussion on broader issues of concern to consumers in energy services that can be examined further in the research process. between citizens and service providers nn Political economy obstacles and (energy sector and social assistance), opportunities to the implementation of and how this relationship is related reforms refer to the power dynamics to behaviors including nonpayment, and stakeholder incentives within the payment delays, applications for social country that may hinder or help the assistance, and so on. progress of reforms. 5 III. RESEARCH TOOLS QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT OF security, geography, energy sources used, HOUSEHOLD PERCEPTIONS AND IMPACTS or other factors. Qualitative assessments also help explore the reasons and underlying By its nature, a qualitative assessment is best assumptions on which certain attitudes and poised to answer the “why” and “how” questions. perceptions are based. These could be cultural, Qualitative assessments can explain underlying historical, or reflective of the unique social and reasons for different degrees of vulnerability economic circumstances of households or and resilience to reforms across groups, which communities. are not easily evident through quantitative analysis. These include, for example, differences Qualitative tools such as focus group discussions in impacts based on gender, ethnicity, income (FGDs) and in-depth interviews (IDIs) rely on open- BOX 4: TAJIKISTAN—USING QUALITATIVE AND QUANTITATIVE METHODS TO PRESENT A COMPREHENSIVE PICTURE OF ENERGY DEPRIVATION AND AFFORDABILITY Tajikistan faces a complex energy challenge. Due to its natural hydro-resource endowments and geopolitical circumstances, it relies heavily on electricity for urban heating. This is problematic in the winter, when severe electricity load-shedding occurs, leaving rural residents with only 3 to 7 hours of electricity per day. A World Bank report (Fields, Kochnakyan, Stuggins, and Besant-Jones, 2012) investigated possible solutions to tackling the challenge of electricity deprivation. The technical solutions offered to improve the situation require long-term investments and would necessitate an increase in residential tariffs—currently the lowest in the region. A qualitative/quantitative analysis was conducted to take a broader look at the impacts of and possible shorter-term solutions to winter energy deprivation. It examined in detail energy use and spending patterns of household groups across the country and impacts on their budget and well-being in the current situation as well as in scenarios involving tariff and subsidy reforms. The analysis has helped open policy discussions on bolstering energy security for rural poor who are currently most affected by electricity rationing and the overall burden of energy costs, as well as to consider socially acceptable solutions to reallocating subsidy distribution without impacting the well-being of urban poor. 6 ended questions that allow subjects to articulate nn to understand factors that drive or their own vision of the issues surrounding a reform, constrain social acceptance of reforms; and to express their own concerns and priorities. nn to design social accountability and By zeroing in on the situation of different social communications interventions; and groups, this research makes it possible to identify nn to tailor the design of mitigation factors of individual or household vulnerability measures. that have previously not been considered. These can then be included in the policy discussion of The most common qualitative methods used mitigation measures, communications strategies, include FGDs ethnographic interviews (EIs) and social accountability approaches (see Boxes with households, and IDIs with key informants. 5 and 6). The range of households and key informants selected in the research is described in detail in In the context of ECA energy reforms, qualitative the section on sample selection below. assessment has been used for one or more of the following purposes: Steps for Designing a Qualitative Assessment Designing a qualitative assessment for energy nn to frame specific energy policy debates subsidy and tariff reforms requires considering in a broader context (see Box 4); the following: nn to complement findings on distributional impacts of tariff reforms and possible nn What do we know about the context? mitigation measures; Are there specific social groups that BOX 5: BEYOND THE AVERAGES One of the greatest values of qualitative assessment is the ability to look more deeply into households’, individuals’ and groups’ specific circumstances to better understand impacts on their lives and factors that drive their attitudes and decisions affected by energy policy decisions. In the context of energy reforms, such circumstances may include household decisions about budget management and making energy payments; the seasonality of energy expenditure; differences in the cost of energy sources across locations; the significance of remittances or security of incomes on energy affordability; additional vulnerability of certain social groups (for example, ethnic minorities, female-headed households, distant rural residents, and so on). These factors underlie the complex reality of coping with energy payments and help identify multiple factors of vulnerability. By taking a broader look into impacts from tariff reforms qualitative assessments have led country teams to consider better tailored mitigation measures; for example, providing community support to meet high winter energy expense burdens in rural areas in Tajikistan, or tailoring social assistance in Armenia to better reflect seasonal variations in energy expenses. 7 BOX 6. GENDER IN ENERGY REFORMS Gender-differentiated impacts of energy tariff reforms may be hard to conceive for researchers (as well as respondents), given that energy services are essential to all. Nevertheless, underlying gender dynamics at the country and household level often translate into types and intensity of impacts that men and women experience differently as a result of energy tariff reforms. At the country level, differences in labor market participation and earnings provide for various levels of vulnerability of male and female heads of households. In cases such as Tajikistan, where households rely heavily on remittances, energy affordability is significantly less secure for households without a migrant, or those that have stopped receiving remittances (the latter are often female-headed). In other cases, these differences are more subtle but still affect energy affordability based on men and women’s level of income and their role in decision making about family budget allocation. Social assistance benefits targeted at single parents may formally or informally discriminate against male-headed households; for example, benefits aimed at single mothers. Most qualitative assessments show that women are more likely to seek social assistance benefits than men, since seeking assistance is less socially acceptable for men. At the household level, energy use and energy-related decisions may be affected by the household’s gender composition. Focus group research shows that men are often more informed about and more likely to proactively employ energy efficiency measures such as insulation, whereas women tend to be more informed about and proactive in seeking social assistance measures. Women staying at home are often affected more directly by energy saving efforts of the household; they may reduce the level of heating when alone, or reduce use of appliances for various household tasks. Additionally, female-only households may incur higher costs for energy sources such as wood or coal, because they have to outsource heavier physical tasks such as transportation, storing, or cutting. Evidence from Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic shows that due to these heavier tasks, poor female-headed households are more likely to purchase these fuels in smaller quantities, which tends to be several times more expensive than buying in bulk. are more likely to be vulnerable to the whether there is a need to include a reform? Are there geographic areas sample from specific social groups that are more vulnerable? Is there a that may be alternatively affected by history of conflict or ethnic/social/ the reform. Understanding the context political division that affects how can also help interpret the qualitative policies are perceived in the country? assessment’s findings. nn What do we know about the specific Answers to such questions can help reform (proposed or ongoing)? Is this determine the location(s) for the one in a series of reforms? Have analyses qualitative assessment, particular been done on previous reforms, and if social groups on which to focus, and so, what have been the impacts? Are 8 there perception surveys on previous than one month for a limited sample size in a reforms on which analyses can be built? small country, and can take up to six months in Do reforms affect specific groups of a larger country with a larger sample size. consumers (households, businesses, users of particular energy sources)? Research Questions What is the stage of the policy dialogue? Qualitative studies on energy reforms aim to explain factors of household vulnerability and Answers to such questions can help factors that shape social acceptance of reforms. further determine the sample for In this context, research questions are generally FGDs or IDIs, identify valuable existing focused in three broad areas: information on reform impacts, and help tailor questions. Understanding nn What does it mean to a household to the stage of the policy dialogue can face the cost of energy? help focus the analysis on potential §§ How do households judge the impacts, mitigation measures, or social burden of energy expenses? Do accountability and communications. they need to apply specific coping nn What are the available resources? Are strategies to access energy firms with adequate experience carrying sources within their means? out research in the country? How much §§ What coping strategies do they support will they need? What is the apply to access sufficient energy available funding for this analysis? for lighting, cooking, heating water, heating the home, and other uses? Answers to such questions can help §§ What, if any, are the consequences determine the overall scope of the of coping strategies to the analysis, whether there is a need to household’s well-being? focus the scope on a narrower question, or to design the research so it includes §§ What are the perceived capacity building for the selected local consequences of potential tariff firms implementing the assessment. increases? It must be noted that qualitative assessment nn What are the prevalent perceptions takes time. Organizing the research (organizing and attitudes toward energy tariff and interviews and focus groups, tailoring research subsidy reforms? questionnaires, piloting, and so on) can take §§ What is the level of knowledge and between 1 and 2 months. Depending on the size awareness of the need for reforms? of the country and sample, holding FGDs, EIs, §§ To what do households attribute and IDIs can take an additional 1 to 3 months. tariff increases? Creating summaries of FGDs, EIs, and IDIs is also time-consuming, as is the analysis of §§ What are their primary sources of discussions and compilation of data. All in all, information and level of trust of a qualitative assessment is unlikely to take less different sources? 9 §§ What is the level of acceptability conducted in the context of energy reform in of the proposed reforms in the ECA, country samples for qualitative work have population? included from 25 to 30 FGDs, 10 to 15 IDIs, and §§ What additional challenges with 3 to 4 EIs. energy services do households Focus groups discussions capture the opinions face (e.g., billing, quality of of different categories of households. They services, seeking their rights vis-à- often unveil any variations (regional, seasonal, vis providers, and so on)? across households, across gender groups, §§ What, if any, specific improvements and so on) that can be validated further in services and/or accountability with quantitative data and considered when would enhance acceptance of the designing mitigation measures. The focus reforms? group sample strives to represent a variety nn What opinions exist with regard to of respondents while keeping sufficient mitigating the impacts of rising energy homogeneity within each group to allow for costs? open and meaningful discussion. §§ Are existing social assistance Focus group categories may include: mechanisms widely known; used; nn rural and urban respondents; and believed to be an accessible and effective means for protecting nn representatives of different geographic vulnerable households in the face areas (different climatic or development of rising energy costs? zones); §§ What do respondents think of nn respondents using different sources of having the government support energy as a primary heating source; energy payments for households, nn beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of and to whom should such support social assistance/heating benefits; be directed? nn employed and unemployed/ §§ What are the preferred mechanisms underemployed; for receiving support with energy nn low- and middle-income households; payments, and why? nn men and women; and What are households’ experiences and attitudes toward energy efficiency measures? nn Roma or other minority groups that could face different impacts; have Sample Selection different perspectives on the reforms; or The sample for qualitative research aims to have different relationships with energy represent a diverse range of respondents to sector providers or social assistance achieve a comprehensive and balanced view of institutions. the problem to be investigated. In the majority Ethnographic interviews with households can be of poverty and social impact analyses (PSIAs) employed to provide a more detailed picture of a 10 particular household members’ experience with any of the aspects discussed in the FGD. These managing energy expenses. These interviews can include: are generally focused on the first set of nn social assistance workers and questions above that relates to managing daily administrators and monthly expenses and impacts on energy use. Ethnographic interviews provide a snapshot nn energy company representatives of the day-to-day energy related usage patterns, nn local government decisions, and coping mechanisms for selected nn civil society households. nn community leaders The respondents are chosen to represent typical but different household situations. Common Conducting the Research criteria for selecting them may be whether they: The time frame for qualitative assessments nn live in an urban, peri-urban, small town, varies depending on availability and the research or rural location; team’s capacity/training needs, the availability nn are apartment dwellers or live in single- of respondents, and the geographical size of the family housing units; area to be covered in the sample. On average, qualitative assessments can be completed in nn use different primary heating sources six months from the TOR preparation to final (district heating, wood/coal, electricity analysis. or gas); nn are poor or low/middle-income Team leaders can follow this step-by-step households (not exceptional in terms of checklist: their vulnerability); and/or nn Prepare TORs (including draft sample nn have children or elderly members. and guide for FGDs, EI, and IDIs). Ethnographic interviews can also be used to nn Select local research team. understand the effects of policy reforms on nn Agree on final sample and finalize public institutions such as maternity wards, research guide to be translated into the daycare centers, or schools. local language. nn Conduct piloting exercise with 2 to 3 In-depth interviews with key informants can FGDs and IDIs. validate, explain, and balance opinions expressed by households/energy consumers. They serve to nn Revise FGD, EI, and IDI guides based on provide a broader picture by gathering information the pilot. from stakeholders on topics of their expertise, nn Have local research team conduct such as social assistance programs, electricity or field work (simultaneously prepares heating distribution, consumer rights protection, summary write-ups of FGDs, EIs, and gender-related vulnerabilities, among others. IDIs). IDI respondents include representatives of nn Brainstorm messages and structure of institutions that are professionally involved in analytical report. 11 nn Have local research team prepare draft nn Report external factors that may analytical report. influence responses in particular groups nn Prepare final report jointly with local or the comparability of findings across researchers. groups. nn Task team leaders (TTLs) may choose nn Use charts, graphs, and tables for more to prepare summary reports or PPTs structured questions to illustrate the with key findings. number of respondents that report a specific experience or agree with a Sample TORs, FGD, EI, and IDI guides, and write- certain view. up templates can be found in Annex I. nn Use quotes to the extent that they illustrate a more widespread view. Analyzing and Validating Findings nn Present views from key informant Qualitative assessments are rich in contextual interviews in the relevant sections to information and detail from primary accounts of provide a balanced perspective. consumers and other stakeholders. However, they have important limitations that should be taken nn Structure conclusions around concrete into account in the analytical stage. Firstly, they are policy implications of the findings, grounded in the personal opinions and perceptions grounded in the evidence. of respondents in the sample. Secondly, the Use of complementary data. Various quantitative sample is not nationally representative, but rather surveys or a quantitative component of the PSIA, aimed at representing a variety of circumstances. projects, or government documents can be used Thirdly, findings lack technical backing; for to compare and validate findings and strengthen example, respondents’ suggestions on measures the background on the context of the study. For to be implemented might not be technically example, data on the distributional impacts of feasible. Due to these limitations, an accurate tariff reforms can help to estimate the poverty presentation of the analysis is essential. Use of impacts on different income groups. Data on complementary data to validate and balance the external factors that drive energy prices, such findings, and consultations on the findings can as changes in the price of imported fuels, can enhance the analysis and make it more valuable help to broaden the context in which household to policy dialogue. perceptions are interpreted. Presentation. The following tips can be used to Frequently used complementary sources present the analysis: include: nn Focus on messages about the key nn household budget surveys research questions that are widespread across the sample. nn opinion surveys nn Highlight variations across groups and nn citizen report cards messages that are specific to certain nn project and sector-specific papers categories of respondents. nn evaluations of relevant programs 12 Consultations. Internal World Bank consultations STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS across global practices (energy, social Stakeholder analysis or stakeholder mapping is protection, social development, poverty, external an integral part of PEA, which has increasingly relations, country management units) are become an important tool for understanding recommended to check factual information, how the distribution and contestation of power discuss complementarity of findings across resources affect policy decisions and the analytical products that fed into country dialogue implementation of public sector reforms. PEA of in the energy sector, and produce a joint set of a country’s energy sector seeks to understand messages. External consultations can be used to how political and institutional factors affect present findings to governments, other donors, a sector or facilitate/challenge change in the and/or civil society in country to collect their sector. Stakeholder analysis is a common input feedback and discuss policy priorities. when undertaking PEA. It allows task teams to Outputs from the qualitative assessment identify (1) who are the main stakeholders in the consist of a background report per country, and energy sector or subsector in a given context; FGD, EI, and IDI write-ups. Additional outputs (2) how different stakeholders relate to each should be tailored to the policy dialogue format other; (3) who benefits and loses from policies and country management unit (CMU) needs that are in place; (4) who would benefit and and can also include PowerPoint presentations, lose from changes to policies. A more in-depth stand-alone reports and report summaries, and analysis may also examine: (5) how broader sections of regional reports (see examples in institutional and governance mechanisms in Box 7). the sector or in the country impact the reform BOX 7. USING OUTPUTS FROM QUALITATIVE RESEARCH In Belarus, findings from FGDs, IDIs, PEA, and household budget survey data were incorporated into a country-level report, “Heat Tariff Reforms and Social Impact Mitigation” to be presented to government counterparts as a joint analysis. Similarly, Tajikistan qualitative findings were validated and integrated with quantitative survey data and information from social assistance program evaluations to form a multisectoral report, “Assessment of Household Energy Deprivation, Coping Mechanisms and Policy Options for Socially Responsible Reform in the Electricity Sector” for country consultations. Bulgaria, Romania, and Croatia qualitative assessments have served as inputs to an ESW on “Energy Affordability in EU-11,” which also incorporates evidence from quantitative analysis of fiscal and quasi- fiscal impacts of energy subsidies, household survey data, and data from evaluations of social protection programs. 13 BOX 8. DEFINING POLITICAL ECONOMY “Political economy is the study of both politics and economics, and specifically interactions between them. It focuses on power and resources, how they are distributed and contested in different country and sector contexts, and the resulting implications for development outcomes.” Source: Poole, 2014. Political economy analysis of even if it is not a “first best” policy energy sector reforms option—and how reforms can be sequenced; has been conducted in a number of countries, including nn identify measures to enhance the acceptability of reforms; Morocco, the Dominican Republic, Zambia, Senegal, nn explain why reforms have not achieved significant results; Guinea-Bissau, Yemen, India, and most recently, Kyrgyzstan, nn explain the likely distributional aspects Romania, Belarus, Croatia, and of reform efforts; and the Western Balkans. nn promote multi-stakeholder engagement and cooperation. DESIGNING A STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS process; (6) what are the historical legacies that shape formal and informal institutional nn Determine the scope of the analysis arrangements and either drive or hinder and formulate a clear and specific reforms. By understanding these relationships research question (see section c below). and institutional and governance arrangements, Stakeholder analysis can be very broad, and analyzing the overall power and willingness looking at a sector and the reforms as of stakeholders to drive change, specific a whole, and identifying a wide range of recommendations can be made to sequence stakeholders and institutions. This type and prioritize particular reforms. of analysis, however, can also be carried out with a specific question about a Stakeholder analysis can help policy makers and single policy reform or an aspect of the task teams: policy reform. Broader analysis can nn identify opportunities to build coalitions serve to guide thinking on which policies for reform; or issues to prioritize, while narrower nn determine a realistic course of action— analysis can help identify specific 14 BOX 9. ISSUES IN STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS FOR ENERGY TARIFF REFORM Energy subsidy and tariff reforms present some distinct challenges that should be considered when conducting stakeholder analysis. Energy is essential for all aspects of life. It affects citizens, businesses, and public institutions. Changes in access to or cost of energy affect closely most sectors of the economy. Unlike other policy reform actions, energy tariff reforms have overarching impacts felt by the entire population. It is likely that increasing user costs of energy will bring no short-term benefits to any stakeholder group, even if they are necessary for the long-term financial viability of the sector, and for improving quality and reliability of services. Energy reforms are also often strongly influenced by external stakeholders and the geopolitical context. Access to energy imports at below-market price can be used as a political tool, and contribute to stalling reforms. The disruption of a regional agreement that had ensured reliable and cheaper energy supply can become a catalyst for reforms, and help win public support for them, in order to reduce dependence on the regional network. Changes in international market price for imported fuels can provide a strong push and rationale for reforms in a particular time period. capacity-building activities, actors that audience and dissemination strategy. have strong views on an issue, and other In cases where issues are particularly more specific challenges to a reform. sensitive, it may not be possible to The scope of the analysis depends on carry out interviews. To elicit honest the objective of the work, how much is answers, it is important to work with a already known about the broader policy research firm or consultants that have options and their acceptability, and on the experience conducting focus groups interests and capacity of governments and interviews. Often, respondents may and sector institutions. provide answers that they think the nn Understand the sensitivities of the researchers expect. In this situation, issues to be addressed. Stakeholder it is also difficult to determine the analysis often unveils a number of veracity of information received, and sensitive issues that may not be easy it is also more important to validate to address during the research and information with different sources. analysis, or publicly discussed once nn Clarify the audience. Depending on the analysis is complete. Awareness sensitivities of the context (and often the of such sensitivities may determine (1) findings), the task team should consider the choice of researcher or research whether the results can be publicly firm; (2) the sources of information disclosed. Different reports may also be (primary or secondary); and (3) the created for different audiences. 15 nn Decide which tools will be used (see to the interests and motivations of section c below). It is important to decide stakeholders. However if such data is which tools will be used after the scope not collected and cannot be accessed of the research is clear, after the audience through desk review, it could be and sensitivities are clarified, but before examined in more detail in the course of a research team is put in place. Certain Stakeholder Analysis interviews. tools are more appropriate for a broader nn Determine the available resources for the review (desk reviews), while others are work. The available funding and expertise better for a more specific review (IDIs). can help determine the overall scope of Desk reviews and media monitoring are the analysis; whether there is a need to also more appropriate for more sensitive focus the scope on a narrower question; or issues, while interviews are more to design the research so that it includes appropriate when trying to understand capacity building for selected local firms the opinions and capacity of people who implementing the assessment. can drive change. nn Tools should be chosen based on the RESEARCH QUESTIONS best way to access specific information. The following questions exemplify research For example, individual interviews make questions that have guided stakeholder analysis it possible to discuss opinions and work carried out on the energy subsidy and tariff interests directly with key stakeholders. reforms, as well as on other sector reforms: Media monitoring can only offer a partial account of what key stakeholders think, nn Who are the sector’s key stakeholders? but it can be used to identify broader nn How do these stakeholders relate to one trends and opinions. Desk reviews, another? What are the most important on the other hand, are the best way to regulation, decision-making, funding, identify information that has already reporting, etc. relationships in the been gathered and analyzed. The best existing institutional structure? analyses use a variety of tools and sources of information, since this also nn What are the vested interests of different helps with validation. stakeholders and underlying incentives nn The sequencing of Stakeholder that shape power dynamics? Analysis within a broader poverty nn What are the interactions and and social impact analysis of reforms dependencies between different also matters when determining what stakeholders? data to gather and through which nn How does the sociopolitical context methods. For example, existing affect policy choices? analysis of fiscal impacts of reforms, nn What are institutional and political budgets and expenditures, data on bottlenecks that prevent the reform existing monitoring or control systems agenda from moving forward? within a sector can provide cues as 16 nn What coalitions can be built to facilitate ANALYZING THE DATA— the implementation of reforms? MAPPING STAKEHOLDERS Stakeholder mapping may employ different CONDUCTING STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS models and approaches. Such an analysis Stakeholder analysis employs a variety of commonly looks at the following aspects in methodological approaches—both qualitative greater detail: and quantitative—and utilizes primary and nn Identifying stakeholders in a reform secondary data sources. Some stakeholder process: analyses rely exclusively on secondary information while others also collect primary §§ Who are the stakeholders (formal data through FGDs and IDIs with consumers and informal; primary—directly and/or stakeholders. Table 1 describes some involved or affected by the reforms; common tools that can be used as part of an and secondary—indirectly involved analysis. Depending on the purpose of the or affected by the reforms)? analysis and the specific research question, §§ What are alliances and divisions different tools may be used. between stakeholders? TABLE 1. TOOLS FOR CONDUCTING A STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS TOOL PURPOSE/SCOPE Literature/desk nn Identify main stakeholders that can serve as key informants PURPOSE/SCOPE reviewa nn Document formal (de jure) institutional structures nn Review the budgets and expenditures nn Review existing quantitative data that may drive interests of different groups (e.g. how will tariff reforms affect small and large enterprises) nn Track main events, decisions, and turning points in the reform agenda nn Learn about earlier reforms, their results, and how they affect the current institutional arrangements and impede reforms’ progress nn Highlight different stakeholders’ motivations for undertaking the reform path, and how incentives and/or behaviors of certain stakeholders may have changed over time nn Determine reform strategy and process nn Understand official and public perception of the reforms a Literature or desk review may include analyzing different type of publications, including academic and policy papers, civil society communiqués, and reports. b When undertaking media analysis, carefully select media sources. Pay attention to ownership issues, political affiliation, circulation rates, and geographical reach. In addition, identify a clear time period for publications to be analyzed. c FGDs and IDIs may follow the format described in the qualitative approach section. 17 TABLE 1. TOOLS FOR CONDUCTING A STAKEHOLDER ANALYSIS (CONT.) TOOL PURPOSE/SCOPE Media monitoring/ nn Follow official announcements and communication campaigns about the reviewb reform agenda nn Identify formal and informal stakeholders and their interests nn Understand official and public perception of and narrative about the reforms IDIs or workshops nn Validate main questions for research (with providers) c nn Confirm and/or refine institutional and stakeholder mapping nn Ascertain the information collected through secondary data review and media analysis nn Understand power dynamics, willingness, and capacity for reforms §§ What are different stakeholders’ §§ What are incentives and power dynamics, incentives, and bottlenecks, and the willingness interests? and ability of stakeholders to §§ Are there relevant patronage implement reforms? networks, or are there issues with §§ What are structural drivers clientelism and nepotism that for reforms (endogenous and affect the reform process? exogenous factors)? §§ Are there any external stakeholders §§ What are social constraints? that also influence the reform §§ What is the extent of acceptability dynamic? of the reform agenda by different groups of the population? nn Providing insights into institutional arrangements and governance of a §§ To what extent is the sector sector (or a subsector): impacted by or crucial to the management of political support? §§ What are key formal institutions and government agencies of the §§ What is the discretionary sector (or subsector)? control and distribution of state resources (are there any formal/ §§ What are the informal institutional informal economic or political relationships between key actors? rents)? §§ What are their daily roles and responsibilities? nn Developing policy options (and their sequencing) that are suitable to a wide §§ What is their involvement and range of stakeholders, or stakeholders role in the reform (in its design, with the power and interest to implementation, and supervision)? implement reforms and ultimately move nn Highlighting existing status quo and the reforms forward while minimizing acceptability of the reforms: potential social risks: 18 §§ What are some feasible policy Various stakeholders can also be mapped options that are also suitable to a relative to one another based on their primary broad range of stakeholders? What characteristics, roles, or interests (see Figure sequencing of these policies might 2). Depending on the objective and scope of generate greater support from the exercise, the axes may depict different influential stakeholders? characteristics. More commonly, influence vs. §§ Is there a compromise between interest axes are used to position various formal the best “technical” option and the and informal stakeholders and indicate their most feasible or acceptable one? influence, support, or opposition to the reforms. Interest and capacity axes may also be used. §§ Is there a coalition for change? The type of stakeholder mapped may also vary, The findings of this exercise may be presented with some questions more suitable for a map in a narrative form or using diagrams that of individual stakeholders and other questions present hierarchical structure of the relevant more suitable for a map of institutional institutions, or specific relationships such as stakeholders. Stakeholders may also be divided decision-making, supervision, accountability, or into groups depending on their interests. For funding (see Figure 1). example, it is possible to group the state and FIGURE 1. REGULATION AND GOVERNANCE IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC POWER SECTOR Agency for Anti- Ministry of Industry, Energy & The Parliament of the Fuel Resources State Inspectorate Monopoly Policy The Fund for State Kyrgyz Republic: for Environmental & & Competition Property Management Jogorku Kenesh Technical Safety Development State Dept of Fuel & Energy Regulation LICENSES PERFORMANCE AGREEMENTS CONTRACTS WITH COMPANY DIRECTORS EPP NESK SE VE DE JE CONTRACTS ON ELECTRICITY SUPPLY REGULATION END USERS GOVERNANCE Source: World Bank. 2014. Power Sector Policy Note for the Kyrgyz Republic. Washington DC 19 FIGURE 2. STAKEHOLDER MAPPING BASED ON INTERESTS AND INFLUENCE HIGH INTEREST Media Donors Renewable energy MinFinance department Consumers MinEconomy Private Regular generators Civil Society LOW INFLUENCE HIGH INFLUENCE Superintendent/ Intermediary Political Parties Distribution Companies LOW INTEREST Source: Example, authors’ elaboration service providers into a single high-powered ministries, consumers, consumer group when they share common interests, and advocates, and so on. contrast them with multiple consumer groups nn Depending on the question, determine who do not share interests. Stakeholders may the axis or frame of analysis for the also be organized into different categories, such stakeholder map. Determine whether the as (1) primary, secondary, and tertiary; (2) formal map should show capacity, willingness, and informal; or (3) champions and spoilers of interest, and so on. It is also possible the reforms; and so on. A table format allows to develop several maps. For example, information about parties/stakeholders to be a map based on interests and influence concisely consolidated by different categories can be compared to a map of capacity and functions (see Figure 3). and interest. This can show when a stakeholder would want to reform but One process for carrying out a stakeholder lacks the power to do so. analysis is described below: nn Analyze the map to determine potential nn Based on the information gathered, options for reform. This could mean determine the 5 to 20 most relevant understanding that one reform will be stakeholders. In the energy sector, difficult to implement because of political for example, these might be service economy considerations and selecting providers, regulators, policy makers, a “second best” reform. Or it could 20 FIGURE 3. STAKEHOLDER MAPPING IN TABLE FORMAT PARTIES/STAKEHOLDERS CHARACTERISTICS FUNCTIONS INFLUENCE ON POLICY/ PROJECT REPUBLICAN/STATE LEVEL XX REGIONAL LEVEL LOCAL LEVEL mean designing social accountability categorized to identify main trends. mechanisms to improve the acceptability Qualitative information gathered of reforms. The analysis could also point during individual or group discussions out institutional capacities that need to presents similar limitations as any other be built, or highlight the need to sequence qualitative data and should be treated reforms or conduct activities leading to a carefully (see earlier section on the reform. qualitative approach). It is important to Once the stakeholder map is complete, and compare information collected through depending on the purpose of the study and the different sources and by different nature of the research questions, researchers means. may decide to investigate why stakeholders nn Information gathered from primary have particular interests, constraints, capacities, sources is used to ascertain information and so on. This could be accomplished by and draw preliminary conclusions based outlining formal and informal rules/norms of on analysis of secondary sources. operations/structural factors; identifying key Stakeholder maps are assessed for processes, perceptions, or historical events precision, comprehensiveness, and that have led to the formation of interests and accuracy, before conclusions and opinions; or analyzing the relationship between recommendations are finalized. broader contextual issues and policy stances and energy sector reforms. VALIDATING FINDINGS Because opinions and perceptions are part of ANALYSIS OF PERCEPTIONS OF REFORMS the data for this kind of analysis, interviewing nn Information collected through different a diverse sample of stakeholders is important tools is carefully studied and if needed, to minimize the risk of biased conclusions. 21 Reviewing reports from different media and OUTPUTS sources as part of media monitoring and desk Outputs of a stakeholder mapping may be review is also important for a more balanced presented in a formal self-standing report or perspective. In addition, a workshop in which an informal and internal document that reviews different stakeholders are invited to discuss policy recommendations and dialogues with reforms can help validate findings and determine clients. Alternatively, policy briefs or summary the points of disagreement or clarify nuances in notes with recommendations or PowerPoint the information. presentations may be prepared. 22 REFERENCES Booth, David and Unsworth, Susan. 2014. Politically Smart Locally Led Development. ODI, London, UK DFID. 2009. Political Economy Analysis. How To Note. A DFID Practice Paper. London, UK Fields, D., A. Kochnakyan, G. Stuggins, and J. Besant-Jones. 2012. Tajikistan’s Winter Energy Crisis: Electricity Supply and Demand Alternatives. Washington, DC: World Bank. Fritz, Verena, Kai Kaiser, and Brian Levy. 2009. Problem-Driven Governance and Political Economy Analysis: Good Practice Framework. Washington, DC: World Bank. Fritz, Verena, Brian Levy, and Rachel Ort, eds. 2014.Problem-Driven Political Economy Analysis: The World Bank’s Experience. Washington, DC: World Bank. Harris, Daniel. 2013. Applied Political Economy Analysis: A problem-driven framework. ODI, Politics and Governance, London, UK Holland, Jeremy. 2007. Tools for Institutional Political and Social Analysis of Policy Reform: A Sourcebook for Development Practitioners. Washington, DC: World Bank. Poole, Alice.2014. “Political Economy Assessments at Sector and Project Levels.” How-To Note, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank. 2003. A User’s Guide to Poverty and Social Impact Analysis. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2009. “Poverty and Social Impact Analysis (PSIA): Reviewing the Link with In-Country Processing and Planning Processes.” Synthesis Report No. 4844-GLB, World Bank, Washington, DC. World Bank.2010a.Lights Out? The Energy Outlook for Energy in Eastern Europe and Central Asia. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2010b.Crisis Within a Crisis: How the Financial Crisis Highlights Power Sector Vulnerabilities in Europe and Central Asia Region. Washington, DC: World Bank. World Bank. 2014. Power Sector Policy Note for the Kyrgyz Republic. Washington DC: World Bank 23 ANNEX I. EXAMPLES OF TERMS OF REFERENCES QUALITATIVE ASSESSMENT: tariff-setting processes, accountability, HOUSEHOLD IMPACTS AND arrears, and nonpayment; ACCEPTABILITY OF ENERGY REFORMS— nn attitudes toward energy reforms and TERMS OF REFERENCE tariff reforms more broadly—areas of information that should be considered in Background communication efforts accompanying [Insert country and sector context here.] energy reforms; and nn the types of programs that participants Objectives and Outputs use to support their basic needs (such The objective of the qualitative assessment as social assistance cash transfers, is to add depth to the information already heating benefits, etc.), experience with available from quantitative sources by seeking to assistance measures, such as heating understand: allowance, and perceptions of the most effective measures for protecting poor nn the most stressful times with respect to households from the adverse impacts energy payments. The impact of energy of energy tariff increases. payments (and previous tariff increase) as experienced by households; The primary output will be a report that includes nn the different types of measures (1) a description of the impacts of the planned households resort to in order to cope reforms on the poor; and (2) recommendations with price increases—for example, if on the types of support that could be provided to participants have cut back on other make energy more affordable for the poor. The spending to pay for electricity, and report will be delivered in English. which types are cut first (luxuries, basic needs, travel, insurance premiums, In addition to the analytical report, outputs will etc.) include brief write-ups in English of all FGDs and IDIs in agreed upon format with the World Bank nn the perception of quality of service (WB) team. and interaction with energy service providers (electricity, district heating) on Suboutputs, which will serve as a basis for matters such as transparency, clarity of disbursement, will include: 24 nn field testing and development of a FGDs sample, separate FGDs will be conducted methodology and research materials, with beneficiaries of heating allowances. including detailed samples and a time FGDs will be conducted with middle-income frame for FGDs and IDIs households1 to compare consumption and nn draft report, FGD and IDI write-ups impacts of energy payments on household nn final report activities, coping strategies with energy payments, as well as to collect attitudes Activities regarding acceptance of energy reforms and The qualitative research will include [XX FGDs] tariff increase. with low and middle-income households, and All FGDs should ensure a good gender and age [XX IDIs] with local government, energy, social balance, as well as geographically represent assistance stakeholders, and nongovernmental areas with different levels of economic organizations (NGOs). development. As gender differences may be present in the description of household impacts Sample and coping strategies for energy expenses, To capture the situation of poorer households, researchers may consider convening separate the sample should focus on households that groups comprised of only men and only women. correspond to the [bottom two consumption quintiles] according to expenditure levels based A small subsample (of 3–4 focus groups) will be on [year] data. The sample should cover both conducted with Roma (or another vulnerable/ urban and rural areas. Among the low-income 1 Corresponding approximately to the 3rd and 4th quintile. Poor households Middle-income Non-Roma Roma households Without With heating heating allowance benefits Using district heating Using gas for heating Using wood/coal for URBAN heating Living in blocks of flats and disconnected from DH [?] Using […] for heating RURAL Using wood/coal for heating 25 excluded group2) given their greater social and instrument; the WB and research team will agree economic vulnerability, and often very distinct on a format for FGD and IDI write-ups. living conditions and challenges accessing Outputs: a revised FGD research guide and IDI utilities/social assistance services. The Roma questionnaire. Agreed format for FGD and IDI sample will include both apartment buildings write-ups. (ideally, one group that is connected and one that is disconnected from district heating (DH) and house residents; for example, in segregated FGDs and IDIs neighborhoods where residents’ problems The precise content of the FGDs will need accessing utilities might differ from the rest of to be developed with the research team and population that lives in houses). be subject to piloting. It is expected that discussions will last approximately two An example of an FGD is offered below. The hours, with 8–10 people in each group. The precise sample and locations for FGDs will FGD should consist of exercises that allow be elaborated by the local research team and cross-group comparison (suggesting that the agreed upon by the World Bank. structure of the FGDs will be fairly standard for Outputs: a detailed work plan including sample, all the groups in the sample), with exercises time frame, and research guide to be piloted. possibly from the following menu. The piloting process should indicate which exercises will be most appropriate and how each section should Piloting FGD and IDIs; Revision of Research Tool be facilitated and recorded. The research team will conduct [X] pilot FGDs in different settings to test questions and exercises There will be four main elements to the FGDs: for clarity, adequacy of the timing, reporting nn Introduction methods, and write-ups. Specifically, the pilot exercise will examine whether FGD participants nn Exercise 1: designed to understand understand questions and terminology; whether energy use and spending patterns the suggested exercises are efficient and yield nn Exercise 2: designed to capture informative findings; and whether the number how households cope with energy of questions and exercises can be completed expenditures and prior increases in within 1.5–2 hours. The pilot will also determine energy costs whether important topics/issues were missed nn Exercise 3: designed to capture opinions in the initial set of questions and propose on support mechanisms additional questions or exercises accordingly. Based on the pilot FGDs, the consultants will nn Exercise 4: designed to capture attitudes prepare brief write-ups and agree with WB team to and acceptance of energy reforms, on the write-up format for the remaining FGDs. including rising tariffs nn Wrap-up Based on the pilot exercise, the team, in Approximately [XX] IDIs on the same set of consultation with the WB, will revise the research issues will be conducted with local government 2 Based on the overall objective and scope of the study. representatives, national NGO and think tank 26 FIGURE 4. DISBURSEMENT SCHEDULE (SAMPLE SCHEDULE BELOW, CAN BE CUSTOMIZED BY TTL). OUTPUT DEADLINE PAYMENT Upon signing contract [date] 10% Detailed sample, time frame, and research tools Pilot exercise and revised research guide [date] 20% Draft report [date] 40 % FGD and IDI write-ups Final report [date] 30% representatives, and national and local experts participants’ anonymity will be respected and on energy and social protection. ask for permission to record the discussion. Ask participants to briefly introduce themselves Outputs: 3–4 page FGD and IDI summary write- with some basic information (first name, age, ups (including answers to key questions and employment status, occupation, whether they summary tables) in English; draft and final work seasonally, whether they live alone or with analytical repot of findings. family, in a house or an apartment, how long they have lived there, and so on). Ask a few general Outputs, Deadlines, and Payments Schedule questions to begin the discussion, such as “What The research will be conducted between [date] energy sources do you use in your house?”3 “Is it and [date]. difficult for you to pay your energy utility bills?” These questions are for introductory purposes GUIDE FOR FOCUS GROUP DISCUSSIONS only. If the discussion becomes heated over a particular point, explain that these issues will Introduction (5 min) be covered in more detail during the discussion Explain the purpose of the group, which is to explore to follow, and remind participants of the study’s issues regarding energy use, energy affordability objective. Then, proceed to the first exercise. for various social groups, and how the population Note that some issues that are raised may copes with energy tariff increases. Set the ground rules for the focus group (respect others’ opinions, 3 Each FGD will begin by having participants fill out the do not interrupt, turn off cell phones, stay for the basic data questionnaire per questions listed. The questionnaire will be developed and finalized by the duration of the group, and so on). Explain that contracted firm in consultation and after agreement with the WB team. 27 not be specifically covered in the research. EXERCISE 1: ENERGY USE AND SPENDING Prompt respondents to discuss/elaborate in PATTERNS (25 MIN) the relevant section of the FGD (for example, on The goal of this exercise is to understand how issues related to costs, assistance measures, the different groups of consumers use energy, and responsiveness of the electricity/district and in particular, when demand for energy use heating company, and so on). peaks. Write-up The facilitator will start by asking the group which types of energy they use (gas, electricity, This exercise will be summarized as shown in solid energy source, and so on). The discussion Table 1:4 should then turn to daily, weekly, and seasonal [Urban/rural group], [location]5, [gender], energy consumption patterns. [beneficiaries of any assistance program or not]6 The moderator/assistant will pre-prepare time 4 Information about respondents participating in a lines, which will look like graphs A, B, and C on the focus group should be collected prior to the FGD or during recruitment in order to use the time of the following page. During the pilot session, the team FGD more efficiently. can decide whether to use all three graphs or just 5 Need to indicate the type of location (for example, capital, administrative center, village, etc.). the monthly one (customizing it month by month, 6 Beneficiaries of the Family Benefit Program or other or by trimester) depending on the information assistance program (such as emergency benefits and heating benefits in previous years). that is sought for the study. TABLE 2. FOCUS GROUP COMPOSITION STATE IF HOUSEHOLD BRIEF RESPONDENT SIZE DESCRIPTION TYPE OF MAIN SOURCE RECEIVED PARTICIPANT1 AGE2 OCCUPATION3 (INCLUDING # OF DWELLING ENERGY OF INCOME4 ENERGY OF CHILDREN (HOUSE/APT, SOURCE5 BENEFITS IN AND ELDERLY) AGE) PREVIOUS YEARS 1 2 3 28 A. MONETARY VALUE6 ENERGY USE/ Jan Feb March April May June July Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec B. C. ENERGY USE/ MONETARY ENERGY USE/ MONETARY VALUE7 VALVE A.M. Mid-day P.M. Night Mon Tues Wed Thurs Fri Sat Sun Ask a participant to approach the time lines. Ask Ask the group whether anybody has a different him/her to show on the time lines how much they consumption pattern. Ask a second and usually spend on energy, for example, in January, third participant to come up and record their etc. If there is more than one energy source, ask 7 expenditures using the same prompts. Once them which source they spend most on, and start complete, the time line might look like Figure with that one. Ask the group if they use more or 1. less than this in February on a Tuesday mid-day, Based on this visual exercise, the facilitator and ask them to mark this on the paper. Continue will generate a discussion that explores the in this way for the rest of the year/day/week. If the following questions: participant uses a different type of energy source, go through the same process with a different color nn Why is energy consumption higher pen for the second energy source. Participants’ at these times? We are interested in answers should reflect the actual bills or money understanding daily/weekly/seasonal due for that month. For example, if they purchase patterns. wood twice a year, in August and October, they can record the expenses in those months. nn Is energy available all the time? At the peak of demand? Do the prices/ 7 The variance to be determined during piloting (for availability vary depending on the example, seasonal, weekend vs. work days, day vs. night). month/time of the day/week? 29 FIGURE 5. TRENDS IN ENERGY CONSUMPTION xxx xx x x x x xx x x xx ENERGY USE x x xx x x x xx x xx xx xx xx x x x JAN FEB MARCH APRIL MAY JUNE JULY AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC nn If energy is not consistently available, similarities and variations in opinions between what other sources of energy do different groups of respondents. It should also participants depend on? include respondents’ views on the costs of nn Where are fuels supplied from, and what energy and reasons for price increases. determines their cost? EXERCISE 2: COPING WITH ENERGY COST If respondents rely on solid energy sources, INCREASES/PAYMENTS (25 MIN) inquire when and how often they make purchases, The purpose of this exercise is to explore and why. When is peak consumption? When the how people cope with energy expenditures, in costs are higher/lower? On what does the price particular seasonal spikes and price increases. of a solid energy source depend? The facilitator can introduce the exercise by Write-up referring to the peaks of expenditures in the time line and asking, “Do people have difficulty This exercise will be summarized in a chart covering energy costs?” Assuming the answer for each group showing consumption patterns is yes, the facilitator can continue by asking, over different time frames. The write-up will “What do you do to be able to pay your energy note whether there are major variations in expenditures?” the consumption patterns and energy supply reported by different respondents, as well as The facilitator should initially solicit responses whether other sources of energy are used. from the participants. If participants do not offer The write-up will discuss participants’ any answers, provide examples. If not mentioned, knowledge and opinions on where energy the facilitator should ask whether participants sources are supplied from, what determined have to cut back on other expenditures in order the consistency of supply, and any notable to pay for electricity/natural gas or for other 30 heating sources. They should also ask which nn Facilitate a discussion about the types of expenditures are cut first (basic needs? relative costs and benefits of each travel? medical expenses? child care? and so “coping measure.”8 These should on). The notes should indicate that prompting be documented in some detail—for was required. If not mentioned, the facilitator example, if respondents say they should also ask whether some people choose “cope” by not paying, ask what happens not or are unable to pay their energy bills during when they do not pay and, if they are certain months. subsequently disconnected, what measures are needed to reconnect. nn Link to the information gathered in We want to capture whether the Exercise 1. measures that people take have only nn What do people do to be able to pay short-term implications or whether their energy bills? the consequences last for some time. nn How much of their budget do they spend These details should be covered in the on energy (electricity and heating)? narrative. nn How often do people fall behind on nn For each measure, the facilitator should their energy payments? What happens also ask whether certain groups or if they are unable to pay their bills? people cannot use this measure. This (Solicit the answers first, before should be covered in the narrative. providing examples—such as paying nn The facilitator should carefully follow in installment, borrowing money, not the “gender angle” and ask the following paying, illegally connecting to power questions, as well as discuss them in sources, and so on). What is the the analysis and the write-ups: “Who average period for late payments? decides what to do with the income?” What happens to those who are late “Do men and women have the same with payments? priorities for energy use?” “If there nn When was the last time energy prices were no men/women in the house, went up? Was the price increase would energy use change?” “Would expected or unexpected? How did they the priorities for how to spend money deal with cost increase? How did the change?” increase personally affect respondents? The facilitator will ask a follow-up question about nn Once listed, the facilitator should ask the whether certain events have a particular effect participants to prioritize the measures on abilities to cope with energy expenditures. using either a ranking exercise (give 3*s If necessary, the facilitator can ask how the to the most important measure, 2*s to following situations might affect the ability to quite important measures, 1*s to not pay or cover energy expenditures and what the so important measures) or a frequency consequences might be: exercise (asking how many people use 8 The term “coping” may require careful translation each measure). and explanation by the moderator. 31 nn job loss other and those in need. For example: “Are there nn ill health households that help each other? Is so, how?” “Do neighbors help each other? If so, how?” “Do nn general inflation people take/are they given informal employment to cope with payments?” “Do people rely on The moderator will lead a discussion on remittances?” “Do people use social networks incidences of nonpayment and perceptions to seek support?” of nonpayment. Questions should include, Do you always pay your bill (or pay for coal/wood) in full or do you have to pay in installments?” Write-Up “Do you have any debt with the electricity/ heating/other company or coal/wood seller?” The findings from this exercise will be “Have you discussed your debt with the utility summarized in a table based on the format company/private coal/wood seller, and if so, suggested in Table 2. what solutions have been proposed?” The write-up will also summarize the discussion As a final follow-up question, the moderator on differences among coping strategies will ask whether households take any measures available to different respondents, who can (or to cope with increasing energy expenditures, cannot) use certain strategies. What aspects and if so, what they are. The moderator will of life or household budget seem to be most probe participants’ experience with any energy affected in making adjustments to cover efficiency measures (window replacement energy expenditures? The write-up will reflect or insulation, walls/roof insulations, moving the discussion on any special measures and bedrooms to one room for all family members, possibilities for reducing energy consumption. and so on), and incentives to invest in such The write-up will also summarize incidences measures. Ask about knowledge of any and perceptions on nonpayment for electricity/ programs or cofinancing mechanisms to invest heating or payment arrears—how common in such measures, whether these measures can are they, to which utilities, is there a particular generate any substantial savings, and what are reason why arrears have occurred (for example, their main challenges associated with applying a particular time period). What suggestions energy efficiency measures. do respondents offer in terms of what is the In the focus groups with respondents who use most manageable way to deal with arrears/ solid energy sources for heating or who have nonpayments? (For example, give options recently switched to solid energy sources, the for paying/covering costs in installments, moderator should probe for whether using accountability concerns, etc.) wood, coal, or any other energy source has any The write-up will also describe the level of effect on health, environment, availability of the knowledge and incentives of respondents to resource, etc. engage in such measures, and list the most In all FGDs, the moderator should ask about common challenges respondents perceive for the ways communities and families help each applying such measures. 32 TABLE 3. MEASURES TO COPE WITH ENERGY EXPENDITURES FREQUENCY/ MEASURE (EXAMPLES MIGHT INCLUDE…) BENEFITS AND COSTS8 RANKING Cutting other expenditures # Cutting electricity consumption # Switching to other energy sources # Not paying the bill/not covering the # costs (off-grid households) Borrowing money # Etc. TABLE 4. EXPERIENCE, INCENTIVES, AND CHALLENGES WITH ENERGY-SAVING MEASURES # RESPONDENTS ENERGY SAVING WHO HAVE MEASURES ADOPTED ALONE OR COLLECTIVELY COMMENTS9 APPLIED THIS (EXAMPLES MIGHT INCLUDE…) MEASURE Plastic windows # House/wall insulation # Building wall insulation # Roof insulation # EXERCISE 3: FORMAL SUPPORT usefulness of different approaches that might MECHANISMS (35 MIN) either already exist or that might be put in There are two versions of this exercise, one place to support households that have difficulty for the focus groups consisting of participants paying/covering energy expenditures. who are poor and benefit from these support The facilitator will start by asking participants mechanisms, and one for those who are to list the forms of assistance and support poor but do not benefit from these support that they receive. They can include in this both mechanisms. cash transfers and other benefits (such as discounts on certain payments). The facilitator Option 1: For those who benefit from should write these down. The facilitator should support mechanisms probe to see whether people are satisfied with The purpose of this exercise is to explore the the social assistance they receive; whether it 33 comprises a major part of their income; how 3. Perception of eligibility. Does everyone sufficient assistance is in covering their family who is eligible for the benefit receive it? If costs; whether they use more of their social not, why? What are some of the obstacles assistance to cover for increased energy costs; to receiving the benefit? Can both men and so on. and women apply for social assistance? Does the “head of the household” need to 1. Sufficiency of social assistance. What be the one to receive social assistance? kind of social assistance does the What happens in households with many individual and their family receive? generations, or migrant households? Are What share of their family income falls there people who have easier access to on social assistance? What share of state benefits? Who are they? Are there social assistance goes toward covering people who cannot access benefits even an increased energy tariff? Do they feel if they are eligible? Who are they? that the social assistance they receive 4. Gender. Does social assistance benefit is sufficient to cover the increase? Or to men and women equally? Who receives cover increased prices on other fuels? it? Who decides what to do with the What hindrances have they encountered benefit money? in regards to their assistance since the energy tariff increase? 5. What do people use the additional income for, to what extent is it able to assist with 2. How people apply and what they have energy expenses? This question is meant to do to receive social assistance. The to gauge how effectively the program facilitator should try to understand how addresses energy payments. people go about proving their eligibility 6. Perception of social assistance for the social assistance, and in particular effectiveness. Does the program work what they do to not be excluded. The well? What are all of the ways the state process for receiving the assistance can help pay their bills? What are some is also important, and the facilitator things the state is doing well? What are should ask whether it is easy to receive some things that could be done better? it and whether there are perceptions of How can the government help people corruption related to social assistance. manage their energy utility bills? What Examples of questions include: Is it can individuals do to improve their ability easy to apply and qualify for social to manage their bill payments? assistance? Why or why not? Are the application procedures clear? What is 7. Experience of interacting with institutions clear and what is unclear? Was it difficult providing social assistance. How easy is to prove eligibility? If so, why? Were they it to get information? Do respondents required to pay for anything they think know where to address any complaints they should not be required to pay? If or inquiries? Ask them to share their the application did not result in receiving experiences dealing with the social benefit, was it clear why? assistance institutions. 34 Questions on social assistance will be posed The moderator may note suggested options openly. Findings may be summarized in a table on a flip chart. Ask the group to comment on that follows the format of Table 4, with an each of the suggested options. Generate a accompanying narrative to capture the detail. discussion around the following issues and topics: We are interested in learning more about which types of assistance might form the nn How should vulnerable customers basis for helping people with increased energy be defined? What is the most “fair”/ expenditures. To this end, the facilitator equitable option? should introduce the exercise by saying, “We nn To whom should government/social are considering different ways to help poor support for energy be targeted? Which households with their energy expenses. One one of these options is best placed to idea is to add a little extra assistance to reach that group? an existing benefit scheme so that people nn If a certain measure is most preferred, can use this to pay their energy bills. What why is it the best scheme and why do you think would be the best scheme for should it be supported? helping poor people with their electricity/ energy (including wood/coal/natural gas) nn For existing programs, what, if anything, expenditures?” needs to improve to make them more TABLE 5. TYPES OF CASH AND NONCASH FORMAL ASSISTANCE RECEIVED BY RECIPIENTS OF THE GROUP TYPE OF WHICH GROUPS OF ANYONE BENEFITS HOW TO DEMONSTRATE BENEFIT PEOPLE RECEIVE IT? IN THE ELIGIBILITY (EXAMPLES GROUP A MIGHT RECIPIENT? INCLUDE…) Family Benefit x # Program Social X # pension for elderly and survivors Other x # 35 accessible to vulnerable consumers? cards numbered 1–5 and ask them to vote for Is the application process clear? Is the each criteria for each option; or the group can process for receiving the benefit clear? agree on a number for each option). The results What are some obstacles involved in can be summarized as in Table 5. applying? Do these programs benefit the “right” people? Who should they Option 2: For those who do not benefit from target, and why? support mechanisms nn How much money would the The purpose of this exercise is to understand government need to add to this benefit why this group is excluded from benefits and to to make poor people who currently do identify ways to mitigate the impacts of rising not apply feel like it is worth it to do so? energy costs for this group. nn What would be the best way to deliver The facilitator should aim to understand the the extra money/assistance—in equal following: amounts every month? Payments in only certain months of the year? If so, 1. Why don’t participants receive support? which months? One payment per year Is it due to in a lump sum? a. lack of need? (Are there people nn What should happen to people who who need social assistance? receive the allowance but still do not or Those who do not? What are cannot pay their energy bills? their characteristics?) Then ask the participants to evaluate social b. lack of awareness? assistance schemes according to the following c. the application process? criteria: (1) convenience; (2) effectiveness in d. the exclusion criteria? (which improving family well-being; (3) reaching the one(s)?) poorest and most needy people. Respondents can score out of 5 for each criteria for each a. perceptions about those who option (the moderator can give each participant receive aid? TABLE 6. COMPARISON OF DIFFERENT OPTIONS FOR DELIVERING ENERGY SUBSIDY SUPPORT REACHES THE POOREST AND CONVENIENCE IMPACT ON WELL-BEING MOST NEEDY PEOPLE Option 1 Number of people Average Number of people Average Number of people Average scoring 1–5 (e.g., 3 scores scoring 1–5 scores scoring 1–5 scores people scored 2, 4 people scored 1) Option 2 Number of people Average Number of people Average Number of people Average scoring 1–5 scores scoring 1–5 scores scoring 1–5 scores Option 3 Number of people Average Number of people Average Number of people Average scoring 1–5 scores scoring 1–5 scores scoring 1–5 scores 36 b. other? determine the tariffs as they are now, and what 2. What kind of support would participants factors should determine them if they think there want to receive? is any discrepancy? What is the reason for the most recent price increases? In their opinion, are a. Which program are they most tariff increases justified? Why or why not? likely to apply to? b. Other ideas? What are some of the key concerns and 3. What experience have participants had suggestions participants have in terms of their interacting with institutions that provide interaction with energy service providers/utilities? social assistance? (Pose this question openly; if necessary, prompt for issues regarding reliability of services and a. How easy is it to get information? quality of service in general, fairness, transparency, b. Do respondents know where handling customer/buyer inquiries or complaints, to address any complaints or etc.) To what extent will improvements in these inquiries? challenges justify an increased price in services? This discussion should generate very specific Write-up issues and suggestions for improvement. The This exercise should be summarized in the moderator should help group the issues mentioned provided tables (refined and agreed during (for example, regarding the electricity company, the piloting). The write-ups should include the gas company), the general complaints, and comparison of responses for Option 2 between explore each of the issues in detail. Participants FGDs with the low-income and middle-income should also be inquired about their knowledge of, respondents. Summary of answers for open- interaction with, and communication channels ended questions should be comprehensive. available regarding regulators. The participants When possible, verbatim statements of the should be asked about their knowledge of tariff- respondents should be captured as well. setting responsibilities and authorities, and how tariff setting affects the gas/electricity companies EXERCISE 4: KNOWLEDGE, ATTITUDES, AND and solid fuel providers. The moderator should ACCEPTANCE OF ENERGY TARIFF make a note of whether all participants are aware INCREASES (25 MIN) of the tariff-setting arrangements and their Start with an open question on how much relationship to the gas/electricity companies. The respondents know about tariff increases in the moderator should also make a note of whether all energy sector, including electricity and gas. participants agree with a certain issue or whether How much do they believe these increases have different respondents feel strongly about a different personally affected them? type of issue regarding energy providers and/or regulators. In terms of tariff increases, ask participants how much they know about how the tariffs What channels do citizens have to act on their for electricity/gas are calculated. Which grievances and the problems listed above? institution(s) do they think is/are responsible Describe the environment for seeking redress for determining/setting these? What factors to complaints, requests for information, and 37 so on. Ask participants to offer details about important/urgent. their experience pursuing claims or complaints, Draw two charts (one for electricity, one for natural or when they have sought more information/ gas),9 marking various hypothetical levels of tariff clarification on their bill/quality of service/etc. increase. Note that these are hypothetical. If Were claims resolved? If not, what do they think discussing specific options for tariff increase is is the main issue and why (for example, lack of too controversial, skip the charts. Based on the capacity, lack of interest, and so on)? discussion above, ask participants under what What are some priority changes/improvements conditions would they be willing to pay (25%, 50%, to energy services that can substantially improve 75%, etc.) more for electricity/heating, if at all. the way residents interact with electricity/ Record the number of responses and associated natural gas providers? Ask participants to rank comments. Summarize this exercise in a table (see these measures (either together as a group, or give each a score of 1–5). List them in order of 9 Depending on the group, the heating chart will refer to either district heating or other fuels (coal, wood, gas). priority on a board or flip chart. Discuss each of If respondents primarily use electricity for heating, the ideas in detail; ask for concrete examples, only one chart on electricity can be drawn. Note: The wood users may not be part of the billing system, and stories, and suggestions, starting with the most thus tariffs may not affect them as directly. TABLE 7. ISSUES INTERACTING WITH ENERGY SERVICE PROVIDERS1 NUMBER OF ISSUES/CHALLENGES (EXAMPLES MIGHT COMMENTS (EXAMPLES; ANY IMPROVEMENTS/ RESPONDENTS WHO INCLUDE…) MEASURES THAT HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE) MENTION ELECTRICITY Illegal connections # Unfair metering # Not possible to get information on # services Nontransparency on tariff setting # NATURAL GAS Nontransparent or unfair tariff setting Not possible to get disconnected Not possible to regulate consumption 1 This discussion would not be valid for households that do not use the services (but instead use wood for heating). 38 Tables 8 and 9 below for examples). The results of The write-up will also summarize prevalent this exercise will be aggregated across groups in attitudes toward broader energy tariff increases the final analysis. (and capture any particular details that participants are aware of/feel more strongly about). Write-up If separate suggestions are given for different This exercise will be summarized as per the providers (electricity/heating) the table can be following tables, with associated narrative. split in two parts, similar to Table 6. TABLE 8. PRIORITY MEASURES THAT WILL INCREASE ACCEPTABILITY OF REFORMS/TARIFF INCREASE1 RANK OR SCORE NUMBER OF MEASURE (EXAMPLES (STARTING WITH RESPONDENTS COMMENTS MIGHT INCLUDE…) HIGHEST RANKED/ WHO MENTION SCORED) More information on # [XX] Better metering # system Other # 1 This discussion may not be valid for households that do not use the services (but instead use wood for heating), though they may be indirectly affected. TABLE 9. WILLINGNESS TO PAY ELECTRICITY COMMENTS How much do you How many How many How many pay now? respondents are respondents are respondents are ready to pay +25% ready to pay +50% ready to pay +75% NATURAL GAS How much do you How many How many How many pay now? respondents are respondents are respondents are ready to pay +25% ready to pay +50% ready to pay +75% 39 TABLE 10. WILLINGNESS TO PAY—CONDITIONS CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH THEY IMPORTANCE ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT HIGHER COMMENTS (AVERAGE SCORE) TARIFF (ELECTRICITY) CONDITIONS UNDER WHICH THEY IMPORTANCE ARE WILLING TO ACCEPT HIGHER COMMENTS (AVERAGE SCORE) TARIFF (NATURAL GAS) Wrap-up (5 min) groups, and a note taker/second facilitator. All What are the top 3–5 improvements in energy FGDs should be recorded so it is possible to go services (price/quality/governance) that are back to responses if insufficient information is the most important for, and would have the provided in the write-ups and tables. All notes greatest positive impact on, respondents’ lives? and flip charts used during the FGD should These could be ranked in one list for the whole be kept. Since the qualitative assessment group, or recorded individually, with number of aims to understand impact on and attitudes people mentioning each (depending on how toward energy tariff increases among different great a consensus there is within the group). consumer groups, it is very important to The recording method should be used across all retain participants’ stories and experiences. groups so that results can be aggregated in the The narrative write-ups should include vivid final analysis. quotes that illustrate participants’ point of view. All quotes should include proper references Thank FGD participants for taking time to answer (location, type of FGD, participants’ gender, the questions. Emphasize that their answers are age, and occupation). It should be noted which very valuable and will be used to inform changes responses required prompting by the facilitator. to the country’s energy sector. Re-emphasize The facilitator should keep the discussions of any that their anonymity will be respected. given issue “on track” and remind respondents that the focus group may not cover all of the General Provisions raised issues, but all concerns should be noted A minimum of two people should facilitate focus and if possible, ranked based on their relevance groups. There should be a main moderator who and importance to participants. The moderator has extensive experience conducting focus should note any age or gender variations in 40 answers, pose follow-up question to further 5. How do the bills and rent payments explore these variations, and record the noted affect your household budget? How differences carefully for the final report. much of the total income goes toward these items? GUIDE FOR ETHNOGRAPHIC AND IN-DEPTH 6. How important is your electricity bill as INTERVIEWS it stands today and how significant is it for your household? (not important at all, Ethnographic Interviews not very important, somewhat important, Ethnographic interview questions will focus on: and very important) 7. Is your household budget affected nn energy bills when the prices of electricity, water, and nn most stressful times of year related to natural gas/liquefied petroleum gas energy bills (LPG) increase? nn how bills and ability to pay them have 8. If so, do you try to decrease your use changed, if at all, in the last two years of these services? If so, what kind of nn other changes that have affected a restrictions do you impose on your household’s ability to pay energy bills usage? nn mechanisms for coping with energy 9. Is your total income sufficient to pay payments your bills and rent? If not, how do you nn the effectiveness of these measures in meet your expenses when your income saving energy and money is insufficient? nn the impact of these measures on a 10. Was there a time when you could not pay household’s budget/needs/well-being your bills? When was it? What did you do? nn any support measures that have helped 11. Do you know how much your neighbors’ a household cope with payments electric bills are? Are they more or less than yours and if so, what do you think Implementing firms can use the following sample accounts for the discrepancy? questionnaire as guidance and make their own questionnaires to complement/validate issues 12. During the last two years, what did you from the focus group guide, depending on the do when your budget did not suffice to competence of the key informant interviewed: pay your electric, fuel, water, and gas bills? When your income does not suffice 1. Do you pay your electric bills? If not, why? do you go without water, electric, and gas 2. Who pays the electric bills in your services? Is it possible to cut down on household? these expenses? 3. Do you pay your electric bills regularly? 13. When your income does not suffice, which 4. During the last two years, what were the expenses do you cut down on first? Why? highest and the lowest amounts of your Do increases in prices and expenditures electricity bill? related to these services cause you to 41 cut down on your basic needs such as Are any issues resolved? Was the result in food, education, and health? favor of consumers or companies? How 14. Due to limitations imposed upon electric, long does it take to resolve complaints? water, and gas expenditures or your How much does this process cost? inability to pay, was your household 5. What kind of improvements should members’ health negatively affected? be made to increase the system’s How? transparency and accountability? 15. Until now, have you ever received help 6. How informed are consumers about from an institution or a person to pay their rights, and what can be improved in your electric, water, or natural gas bills? If terms of citizens’ access to information, so, from whom and what kind of help did and communication? you receive? How much was the amount of support? IDIs with Social Assistance Workers 16. During the last two years, did you borrow These interviews will explore formal support money to pay your utility bills? If so, how mechanisms available to the poor. Questions much and from what source? will include: IDIs with NGOs and Associations for Consumer 1. What are the eligibility criteria for heating Protection benefits? How have they changed (this or last year)? What do you think about these These interviews will mostly complement views changes? of households. The following questions will be covered during the interviews: 2. Is the benefit accessible? What is your 1. What are the main issues related to perception of the number of people who fairness and accountability in relations receive it through the recent years? Is it between electricity consumers and growing/decreasing? Why? distribution companies, as well as 3. What comments do you have about between citizens and the state? eligibility and access (both regarding ease 2. What is your main area of expertise to process and ease of application)? Are related to the energy sector and energy there certain groups/types of people that consumers? What is the motivation are eligible but generally do not apply behind your organization’s or much? What are the reasons? association’s work? 4. Are there any improvements you 3. Do you facilitate requests or complaints find necessary in terms of eligibility/ from consumers to energy companies? processing/incentives for eligible people What type of consumers approach your to apply? organization? What type of issues do 5. Do you see much overlap in who receives you encounter? How many cases do you heating benefits and other social receive? benefits? 4. What is your experience with such cases? 42 6. What about effectiveness of the benefit— 1. What is your company’s background? has it changed in terms of the amount/ How many buildings does it serve, generosity? Is it significant in terms of where, and for how long? covering energy costs? 2. What are the average bills for heating 7. Can anything change to make it more different types of households? How do effective/more significant? they vary through the year? Are there any 8. What do you think about the three major variations (by type of households, different support programs for energy building, by month, etc.)? How are the bills? Are cash transfers to the poor variations determined? (using income/means testing) a good 3. What is the process of bill calculation way to compensate for the increase in (starting from meter readings)? Are electricity and heating prices? there any variations in this process? 9. Do you think there is much room for fraud? Can you describe the whole chain, For example, people misrepresenting from consumer to provider of bills and their income? contracts? 10. Do you have any general opinions about 4. What are advantages and challenges of electricity and heating tariff reforms, and this billing system? the role of the social assistance system 5. What are the main issues you see in in compensating impacts (is it fairly terms of bill collection? Are any directly effective or insignificant)? related to tariff changes? 11. What priority improvements could make it more effective? 6. What is the scale of nonpayment (for their consumers, and also if they have If the ideas revolve exclusively around more information on the city or national level)? resources and staff for social assistance offices, try to prompt about improvements 7. Which support measures can be most that would increase ease/effectiveness for helpful in consumer payments? beneficiaries. In the event of low capacity/ 8. Regarding issues and complaints by low budgets, it is likely that a lot of ideas will residents—what type of issues arise? revolve around those institutional needs. We How are they handled/resolved? Do want to record that but also go a bit deeper and residents have enough information gauge their professional opinion on the actual about their rights and responsibilities programs. and those of other institutions? 9. What are the key recommendations for IDIs with Energy Company Representatives improving clarity/communication about These interviews will complement focus groups. roles and responsibilities? They will seek understanding of energy use/ patterns and attitudes toward energy tariff 10. What key regulations or policies are increases via the following questions: missing or need to be changed? 43 INSTITUTIONAL AND POLITICAL ECONOMY more detailed questions to be pursued in the ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY SECTOR analysis, and a draft list of key informants REFORMS—TERMS OF REFERENCE for the initial round of interviews; (2) a draft report with key findings; and (3) a final report Background (maximum 25 pages). The final report will [Insert country and sector context here.] follow an outline agreed upon with the TTL and will serve as background to the consolidated Objectives and Outputs report. The main objectives of the political economy assessment are to: Audience The primary audience for this research is 1. deepen the World Bank’s understanding internal World Bank entities: the economic and of key political and institutional sector work (ESW) task team, CMU, or other constraints to realizing identified WB task teams with relevant involvement energy reforms in a politically feasible in policy dialogue. Findings will be subject and socially acceptable manner. To to internal review and edited before being this end, the assessment will identify included in public documents, to protect all stakeholders, their interests and confidentiality. influence in the identified reforms, and key institutional/governance/ transparency/equity issues to be taken Scope of Assignment into account for achieving desired The political economy assessment will use desk reform outcomes. review and key informant interviews as primary 2. explore solutions to the identified methods of research. Given the relevance political economy constraints that of public perceptions on transparency and would facilitate progress of reforms, accountability of energy services to the goals contribute to more transparent of the assessment, the consultant should also, transactions, and increase public trust to the extent possible, use as an input findings in the reform process. To this end, from the ongoing qualitative assessment on the assessment will identify potential energy reforms. champions, opponents, or neutral The analysis below will be undertaken with stakeholders and their interests with respect to the following pending reforms. The respect to specific reform actions. It team can choose what reforms the study should will propose some recommendations look at. Examples include: in terms of reform sequencing and priority governance measures that nn gas price liberalization would facilitate reforms and increase public trust. nn electricity tariff adjustments The outputs of the analysis will be: (1) a nn elimination of certain subsidies/ work plan that details methods to be used, preferential tariffs 44 nn strengthening governance/financial of political economy risks and performance/transparency and opportunities? accountability to consumers of SOEs The consultant will develop specific questions A. Institutional and Governance Analysis based on the context and current progress of reforms. Such questions may include: An analysis of each of the reform areas listed above will be conducted to understand the role nn Tariffs. What has been the experience and the economic and political interests of relevant of adjusting tariffs in the past 10 years? institutions. This will require a brief analysis of each What have been the main challenges institution’s legal mandate, formal and informal in the process, and why? Are tariffs governance arrangements, incentives, power equal to all consumers? What are the positions, and any recent changes in structure/ differences and how are they justified? regulation that may affect the institution’s ability to Has government attempted to introduce function according to its mandate. The institutional new methods of tariff calculation, and analysis should include all relevant actors such as with what results? Is there enough the energy regulator, district heating companies, information in the public space on relevant ministries and departments, local structure of tariffs? If not, what are the government, electricity companies, and so on. The main reasons and/or institutions that position of other institutions toward each of these can champion better public information? reforms (such as the General Secretariat, Office of Are there civil society/ professional the President, Prime Minister, etc.) should also be organizations that are actively involved assessed. For each reform, the assessment should in policy dialogue surrounding tariffs seek to answer the following broad questions: and subsidies? Have governments been open to such dialogue? nn What are the most significant political and nn Subsidies. How are subsidies political economy risks to the reform? distributed? What current changes/ nn What are the most significant reforms are proposed and what are the g ove r n a n c e / e q u i t y / t r a n s p a re n c y expected challenges to reorganizing and accountability constraints in subsidies in a more equitable/ implementing the reforms? sustainable manner? nn Why do these variables operate in [the nn Losses. Is there a lot of theft in the country’s] energy sector? What is the system (residential? industrial?) and historical policy/decision-making what do stakeholders believe is the background on tariff setting, subsidies, cause? What actions are recommended etc.? for better control and what challenges nn How do these variables operate and would such reforms face/have faced in impact energy reform processes and the past years? outcomes? nn Institutional arrangements. Who nn How could these variables be addressed benefits from current arrangements in through effective management regulation, contracting and payments 45 to generation/distribution companies, forces other than the incumbent’s party. current tariff-setting system, etc.? The stakeholder analysis should include the Why has it been difficult to institute following elements: a culture of better governance, nn identify key stakeholders; accountability, and transparency in the management of (electricity/ nn assess stakeholder interests, power, heating) companies]? How can a and influence in regards to each of the low-performing cycle of inefficiency/ proposed reform areas. The “power” nontransparent governance be of stakeholders can be analyzed as a broken? Who is in the best position to function of their resources and political, initiate such process? economic, or social influence. The interests of stakeholders can be viewed nn Investments and private sector. Are as a function of the degree to which there private investments in the sector? they might be affected, positively or Is there high trust in investors in negatively, by the reforms. Based on this government/state-owned companies? analysis, stakeholders can be mapped Does the involvement of private investors on a Power-Interest Matrix; and contribute to better governance/ transparency, or not/neutral? Are there nn identify existing and potential new entry private energy generators and what is points for building constituencies for their role? each reform. B. Stakeholder Analysis (ii) Identifying Causes, Links, Vested Interests (i) Mapping Stakeholders; Reform-Influence This analysis will look into any links and vested Matrix interests that may constrain implementation of comprehensive reforms in the most The consultant will identify and analyze the accountable/transparent manner. The analysis interest and influence of all stakeholders through will be clear about evidence and level of a mapping process (this could be done through acceptance by stakeholders in the existence of an initial desk review and a series of interviews, such links or interests. These may be related to for a “snowball effect”). These will include actors personal, political, or business interests; they such as consumer associations and other civil may also be linked to capacity constraints, past society organizations that may have a direct policy decisions that are difficult to reverse, and or indirect interest vis-à-vis proposed reforms, so on. (For example, lack of transparency in including industry and commercial enterprise composition of heating bills may have to do with associations and community-based groups, economic interest of the company, technical/ end-users in subsidized areas (if geographical capacity issues, etc.) differences exist), heating benefit recipients, generation companies, distribution company The overall analysis will put forth recommended management, and actors in the executive and actions for advancing the sector’s reform, with legislative branch, including the roles of political particular focus on the priority reform areas. 46 Outputs, Deadlines, and Payments Schedule A suggested time frame for deliverables is as follows: The consultant will be contracted for a period between [date] and [date]. OUTPUT DEADLINE PAYMENT Upon signing contract [date] 10% Work plan (including [date] 30% methodology, list of stakeholders to be interviewed and interview questions, key questions for analysis, time line) Draft report and final report [date] 60% 47 ANNEX II. CASE STUDIES OF POLITICAL ECONOMY ANALYSIS IN THE ENERGY SECTOR TTL/ NAME COUNTRY YEAR METHODOLOGY SCOPE SECTOR ECA The Stakeholder Belarus 2014 Nicolas • Stakeholder • IDIs with key stakeholders assessing their Analysis of the Perrin/ mapping needs and interests and how these interests District Heating ECSSO influence reform. An IDI with a set of questions Sector in Belarus • Secondary divided within six topic blocks on the reform— data analysis (1) perceptions and positions; (2) stakes; (3) challenges and opportunities; (4) policy options • Media and government responses; (5) process; and (6) monitoring institutions—was developed during the inception • Interview phase of this report. • Media monitoring on the latest publications and public opinions of the energy sector and district heating. Institutional and Romania 2014 Michelle • Stakeholder • Institutional and governance analysis: roles Political Economy Rebosio/ mapping and economic and political interests of relevant Assessment of ECSSO institutions. Energy Sector • Secondary Reforms in Romania data analysis • Stakeholder analysis: (1) mapping of stakeholders, reform-influence matrix; (2) identifying causes, links, and vested interests. Institutional and Western 2014 Michelle • Desk review • The analysis focused on regional and country- Political Economy Balkans Rebosio/ specific challenges to regional power market Analysis of Energy ECSSO • Media integration. The scope of work includes (1) Sector Reforms in sources mapping key stakeholders, institutions, and Western Balkans analysis interests that affect the reform process; (2) examining the legacies of past institutional • Interviews arrangements of the energy sector, motivations for reforms, institutions structure, and financing of the energy sector, as well as its capacity to implement the reforms; and (3) discussing lessons learned regarding the progress and limitations to implementing energy reforms in a transparent and socially acceptable manner. 48 TTL/ NAME COUNTRY YEAR METHODOLOGY SCOPE SECTOR Political Economy Kyrgyzstan 2013 Ani • Desk review • Desk review provided an overview of the policy Analysis of the Balabanyan choices and prior experience with reforms. Energy Sector and Sarosh • Interviews Sattar/ • Interviews helped evaluate institutional and ECSEG/ economic aspects of the decision-making ECSP3 process for reforming energy subsidies. LAC Political Economy of DR 2012 Sarah • Stakeholder • Institutional and governance analysis Policy Reform Study Keener/ mapping and problem-driven framework: identify for the Dominican LCSSO organizations and influential groups with a stake Republic’s Electricity • Secondary in the DR electricity sector. Sector data analysis • Stakeholder analysis based on interviews and • Media secondary information on interests, power, and monitoring influence; preferences for policy; logic they use to make choices (an influence-interest matrix for • Interview stakeholders was created). • Analysis of collective action dynamics. • Analysis of opting out strategies using household survey data. • Analysis of utility pricing and tolerance of nonpayment. • Tracking of past policy reform decisions. 49 TTL/ NAME COUNTRY YEAR METHODOLOGY SCOPE SECTOR MENA Yemen: The Political Yemen 2006 Sabine • Household • Workshops with key experts and state Economy of Energy Beddies/ survey representatives. Subsidies MNSSO Participatory assessment • Stakeholder analysis. • Workshop • Qualitative analysis and participatory research of energy use among poor and middle-income • Stakeholder communities to understand patterns of use and mapping with key informants. • Interviews • Direct consultations with community. • FGD • Consultations Assessing Public Morocco 2011 Andrea • Interviews • Interviews with stakeholders on their roles in the Opinion in the Liverani/ system; economic implications of the current Political Economy of MNSSO • FGDs system; potential impacts of compensation Reform: the reductions on stakeholders; transitory measures • Survey needed to mitigate such impacts. Case of Energy Subsidy Reform in • FGDs with groups from the general population, Morocco including questions on imagining and rating fictitious situations; perceptions of the state; perception of the compensation system; envisaged social protection measures and options for reform; consumption habits and standards of living. • Nationally representative opinion survey focused on issues covered in the qualitative components and also including questions on knowledge, perception, and attitudes regarding subsidy reforms. Survey findings are further analyzed for how they correspond with socioeconomic conditions of different households and whether there are variations in perception by socioeconomic status. 50 TTL/ NAME COUNTRY YEAR METHODOLOGY SCOPE SECTOR AFRICA Political Economy Senegal 2011 Phillipe • Stakeholder • Review of formal institutional organization Analysis of Reforms and Guinea- Durand/ mapping around utility, identify formal responsibilities, in the Energy Sectors Bissau AFTSW governance risks. in Senegal and • Secondary Guinea-Bissau data analysis • Identification of key stakeholders, assess their concerns and expectations. • Discussion of findings and recommendations with key stakeholders. • Determination of electricity expenditure patterns by welfare groups. • Analysis of tariff adjustment modalities. Using Political Zambia 2007 Brian Levy • Interviews • Analysis of decision-making process regarding Economy and Patricia changes in the sector, and tariff increases Assessment Palale restructuring and pricing. to Reorient Sectoral Strategy: • Interviews and insider understanding. Infrastructure Reform In Zambia 1 Use of their full name is optional (to preserve confidentiality). 2 The focus group should include respondents of different ages; at least by two participants aged 18–39, 40–63, and 63 and older. 3 Indicate occupation here, as well as unemployment status. 4 For example, wage in a formal sector, small business, pension, remittances, etc. 5 Respondents with electricity and gas, respondents with electricity and off-gas grid (with other energy source of heating). 6 To be tested during the pilot and confirm the better measurement/assessment of energy consumption. 7 To be tested during the pilot for a better assessment of energy use during the week/weekend. 8 Or effectiveness in terms of savings on energy costs—to be tested during the pilot. 9 Effectiveness in saving energy costs, examples. 51 52 THE WORLD BANK 1818 H STREET NW WASHINGTON DC 20433 WWW.WORLDBANK.ORG