Climate Change Group, The World Bank
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Environmental economics, Rural development, Natural resource management, Land use and climate policy
Climate Change Group, The World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Last updated January 31, 2023
Ulf Narloch is an Economist in the World Bank Group’s Climate Change Chief Economist’s Office, based in Washington DC. He is currently working on green growth and climate policies, poverty impacts of climate change, and sustainability measurement and diagnostics. Prior to joining the World Bank in 2013 Ulf Narloch was with the United Nations Environment Programme World Conservation Monitoring Centre (UNEP-WCMC), Bioversity International, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW). His work focused on the evaluation of economic instruments and households decisions related to land use, farm management and livelihood strategies.
Publication Search Results
Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
Publication(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-11) Hallegatte, Stephane ; Bangalore, Mook ; Bonzanigo, Laura ; Fay, Marianne ; Narloch, Ulf ; Rozenberg, Julie ; Vogt-Schilb, AdrienClimate change and climate policies will affect poverty reduction efforts through direct and immediate impacts on the poor and by affecting factors that condition poverty reduction, such as economic growth. This paper explores this relation between climate change and policies and poverty outcomes by examining three questions: the (static) impact on poor people's livelihood and well-being; the impact on the risk for non-poor individuals to fall into poverty; and the impact on the ability of poor people to escape poverty. The paper proposes four channels that determine household consumption and through which households may escape or fall into poverty (prices, assets, productivity, and opportunities). It then discusses whether and how these channels are affected by climate change and climate policies, focusing on the exposure, vulnerability, and ability to adapt of the poor (and those vulnerable to poverty). It reviews the existing literature and offers three major conclusions. First, climate change is likely to represent a major obstacle to a sustained eradication of poverty. Second, climate policies are compatible with poverty reduction provided that (i) poverty concerns are carefully taken into account in their design and (ii) they are accompanied by the appropriate set of social policies. Third, climate change does not modify how poverty policies should be designed, but it creates greater needs and more urgency. The scale issue is explained by the fact that climate will cause more frequent and more severe shocks; the urgency, by the need to exploit the window of opportunity given to us before climate impacts are likely to substantially increase.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2015-06) Fay, Marianne ; Hallegatte, Stephane ; Vogt-Schilb, Adrien ; Rozenberg, Julie ; Narloch, Ulf ; Kerr, TomThe science is unequivocal: stabilizing climate change implies bringing net carbon emissions to zero. And this must be done by 2100 if we are to keep climate change anywhere near the 2 C. degree warming that world leaders have set as the maximum acceptable limit. Decarbonizing Development looks at what it would take to decarbonize the world economy by 2100 in a way that is compatible with countries’ broader development goals. It argues that the following are needed: Act early with an eye on the end-goal; Go beyond prices with a policy package that triggers changes in investment patterns, technologies and behaviors; Mind the political economy and smooth the transition for those who stand to be most affected.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-04-06) Fay, Marianne ; Andres, Luis Alberto ; Fox, Charles ; Narloch, Ulf ; Staub, Stephane ; Slawson, MichaelLatin America and the Caribbean does not have the infrastructure it needs, or deserves, given its income. Many argue that the solution is to spend more; by contrast, this report has one main message: Latin America can dramatically narrow its infrastructure service gap by spending efficiently on the right things.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-07) Narloch, UlfTo estimate the impact of weather on rural income changes over time, this study combines data from the panel subsample of the latest Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys 2010, 2012, and 2014 and gridded weather data from the Climate Research Unit. The analyses show: (i) crop cultivation, livestock management, forestry and fishing activities, and agricultural wages remain important income sources in rural Vietnam—especially for poorer households; (ii) rural communes are exposed to substantial inter- and intra-annual weather variation, as measured by annual, seasonal, abnormal, and extreme weather conditions and weather events; and (iii) these types of weather variation are indeed related to income variation. In particular, warmer temperatures and heat extremes can have negative income effects in all climate contexts and for all socioeconomic groups and most income activities. Only staple crops, forestry, and fishing seem to be less sensitive to hotter conditions. The effects of rainfall are more difficult to generalize. Some findings indicate that more rainfall is beneficial in drier places but harmful in wetter places. Interestingly, the incomes of poorer households seem to be negatively affected by wetter conditions, while those of wealthier households are more impacted by drier conditions. An increase in rainfall levels and flood conditions between 2012 and 2014, which were relatively wet years, is related to reduced income growth between these two years. Altogether these findings suggests that greater attention has to be paid to making rural livelihoods more resilient to weather variation which, is very likely to increase because of climate change.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-07) Narloch, Ulf ; Bangalore, MookThis study combines high-resolution, geo-spatial data and household data from the Vietnam Living Standard Measurement Surveys in 2010, 2012, and 2014 to investigate the relationship between environmental risks and poverty. Using recently developed data on air pollution, tree cover loss, land degradation, slope, rainfall and temperature variability, and flood and drought hazards, the study shows: (i) at the district level, there are hotspots of high poverty and environmental risks; (ii) ethnic minorities and poor households are much more exposed to multiple environmental risks than other groups, and also within rural and urban areas poorer households live in communes exposed to higher environmental risks; and (iii) environmental risks relate to lower consumption levels, but less so to lower consumption growth over time. Altogether these findings suggest that Vietnam’s poor are disproportionally exposed to environmental risks, which can result in livelihood impacts that in many ways go beyond consumption. In light of growing pressures due to population growth, economic development and climate change, green growth actions, ecosystem-based adaptation, and land-use planning could be important strategies to reduce the environmental burden on poor people.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2017-07-18) Fay, Marianne ; Andres, Luis Alberto ; Fox, Charles ; Narloch, Ulf ; Straub, Stephane ; Slawson, MichaelLatin America and the Caribbean (LAC) does not have the infrastructure it needs, or deserves, given its income. Many argue that the solution is to spend more; by contrast, this report has one main message: Latin America can dramatically narrow its infrastructure service gap by spending efficiently on the right things. This report asks three questions: what should LAC countries’ goals be? How can these goals be achieved as cost-effectively as possible? And who should pay to reach these goals? In doing so, we drop the ‘infrastructure gap’ notion, favoring an approach built on identifying the ‘service gap’. Benchmarking Latin America in this way reveals clear strengths and weaknesses. Access to water and electricity is good, with the potential for the region’s electricity sector to drive competitive advantage; by contrast, transport and sanitation should be key focus areas for further development. The report also identifies and analyses some of the emerging challenges for the region—climate change, increased demand and urbanization—that will put increasing pressure on infrastructure and policy makers alike. Improving the region’s infrastructure performance in the context of tight fiscal space will require spending better on well identified priorities. Unlike most infrastructure diagnostics, this report argues that much of what is needed lies outside the infrastructure sector – in the form of broader government issues—from competition policy, to budgeting rules that no longer solely focus on controlling cash expenditures. We also find that traditional recommendations continue to apply regarding independent, well-performing regulators and better corporate governance, and highlight the critical importance of cost recovery where feasible and desirable, as the basis for future commercial finance of infrastructure services. Latin America has the means and potential to do better; and it can do so by spending more efficiently on the right things.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2016) Hallegatte, Stephane ; Bangalore, Mook ; Bonzanigo, Laura ; Fay, Marianne ; Kane, Tamaro ; Narloch, Ulf ; Rozenberg, Julie ; Treguer, David ; Vogt-Schilb, AdrienEnding poverty and stabilizing climate change will be two unprecedented global achievements and two major steps toward sustainable development. But the two objectives cannot be considered in isolation: they need to be jointly tackled through an integrated strategy. This report brings together those two objectives and explores how they can more easily be achieved if considered together. It examines the potential impact of climate change and climate policies on poverty reduction. It also provides guidance on how to create a “win-win” situation so that climate change policies contribute to poverty reduction and poverty-reduction policies contribute to climate change mitigation and resilience building. The key finding of the report is that climate change represents a significant obstacle to the sustained eradication of poverty, but future impacts on poverty are determined by policy choices: rapid, inclusive, and climate-informed development can prevent most short-term impacts whereas immediate pro-poor, emissions-reduction policies can drastically limit long-term ones.