Person:
Cruz, Marcio
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Firms,
Entrepreneurship,
Technology Adoption
Degrees
ORCID
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Departments
Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Global Practice of the World Bank
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
Marcio Cruz is a Senior Economist in the Finance, Competitiveness, and Innovation Global Practice of the World Bank. Previously, he worked in the Development Economics unit contributing to the World Bank’s flagship publications Global Economic Prospects and Global Monitoring Report. Prior to joining the World Bank, Marcio has worked as a tenured professor in the Department of Economics at the Federal University of Paraná and as an Economist at the Secretary of Planning of the state of Paraná, in Brazil. His main research interests are firm dynamics, technology adoption, international trade, and impact evaluation. His research has been published in scholarly journals such as the Journal of International Economics, the World Development, the Journal of International Inequality, and the Cambridge Journal of Regions, Economy and Society. He received the World Bank's Research Academy Award in 2015. He holds a Ph.D. in Economics from the Graduate Institute, Geneva.
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 30
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Publication
Do Export Promotion Agencies Promote New Exporters?
(World Bank Group, Washington, DC, 2014-08)Do export promotion agencies impact the probability of non-exporting firms to export? In the last decade many countries have introduced export promotion agencies to support their firms to deal with asymmetric information problems and make feasible additional gains from trade. Some recent studies have found that the support of these agencies has been effective with respect to the intensive and extensive margins of trade. Nevertheless, because of the lack of information on non-exporting firms, few of them analyze their impact on the probability of promoting new exporters. This paper evaluates the impact of the Brazilian Trade and Investment Promotion Agency (Apex-Brasil) on firms' export status using a unique firm-level dataset that covers the full manufacturing sector in Brazil. To identify the impact of Apex's assistance on firms' export propensity, the paper relies on a procedure of matching difference-in-difference estimators. The empirical results show evidence of the program's positive impact on the probability of promoting new exporters. The effect is heterogeneous according to firms' size categories and sectors. Furthermore, the findings suggest that the program has spillover effects. Although the evidence of positive effect is robust, the low propensity to export for both the treated and the control groups reinforces the importance of other firms' determinants (for example, productivity), which is widely emphasized by the trade literature. -
Publication
Beyond the Income Effect : Impacts of Conditional Cash Transfer Programs on Private Investments in Human Capital
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-05)In the past decade, conditional cash transfer (CCT) programs have become an important component of social policy in developing countries. While the impacts of these programs have been well researched with respect to their effectiveness to achieve intended outcomes, less is known about their impact on private expenditure decisions. This aspect has great policy relevance since changes in private household expenditures can either support or counteract the aim of the programs. This essay investigates the impact of a CCT program on private household expenditure decisions in nutrition, health and education which are seen as principal contributors to child human capital. First, household expenditure behavior under a CCT program is discussed based on Heckman's model on the technology of skill formation as a conceptual framework. The paper shows how intra-household preferences and perceptions on the substitutability or complementarity of investments can impact household resource allocation decisions. Subsequently, the theoretical implications are tested in the context of the Brazilian CCT program Bolsa Família, using the Brazilian household expenditure survey. Evidence is found that households increase their private expenditure in food and education disproportionally to the amount of cash transfer, that is, more than would be expected when considering the Engel curves of the expenditures under question. -
Publication
How Significant is Africa's Demographic Dividend for Its Future Growth and Poverty Reduction?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-12)Africa will be undergoing substantial demographic changes in the coming decades with the rising working age share of its population. The opportunity of African countries to convert these changes into demographic dividends for growth and poverty reduction will depend on several factors. The outlook will likely be good if African countries can continue the gains already made under better institutions and policies, particularly those affecting the productivity of labor, such as educational outcomes. If African countries can continue to build on the hard-won development gains, the demographic dividend could account for 11 to 15 percent of gross domestic product volume growth by 2030, while accounting for 40 to 60 million fewer poor in 2030. The gains can become much more substantial with even better educational outcomes that allow African countries to catch up to other developing countries. If the skill share of Africa's labor supply doubles because of improvements in educational attainment, from 25 to about 50 percent between 2011 and 30, then the demographic dividends can expand the regional economy additionally by 22 percent by 2030 relative to the base case and reduce poverty by an additional 51 million people. -
Publication
Does Input Tariff Reduction Impact Firms Exports in the Presence of Import Tariff Exemption Regimes?
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04)In the last decade Morocco undertook substantial, if gradual, trade liberalization by reducing tariffs, reforming trade regulations and signing free and preferential trade agreements with several regions and countries, including the United States, Turkey, the European Union and Arab countries. This paper analyzes the impact of input tariff reduction on Moroccan exporting firms through the channel of intermediate goods. Gaining access to more varied and cheaper inputs can make exporting firms more competitive, and as a result they export more. To evaluate how this policy may impact firms export performance, the paper analyzes the impact of input tariff reduction on different margins of trade with emphasis on export markets and product diversification. The identification of the effect of input tariffs on exports relies on a difference-in-difference estimator using heterogeneous access to import tariff exemption as a measure of different levels of exposure to input tariff reduction at the firm level. Overall, the analysis finds that firms that are relatively more exposed to input tariff perform better in those sectors with the largest input tariff reduction, with better access to markets, higher probability to survive when exporting new products in those sectors and higher export value growth. -
Publication
Ending Extreme Poverty and Sharing Prosperity: Progress and Policies
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-10)With 2015 marking the transition from the Millennium to the Sustainable Development Goals, the international community can celebrate many development successes since 2000. Three key challenges stand out: the depth of remaining poverty, the unevenness in shared prosperity, and the persistent disparities in non-income dimensions of development. First, the policy discourse needs to focus more directly on the poorest among the poor. While pockets of ultra-poverty exist around the world, Sub-Saharan Africa is home to most of the deeply poor. To make depth a more central element in policy formulation, easy-to-communicate measures are needed, and this note attempts a step in this direction with person-equivalent measures of poverty. Second, the eradication of poverty in all of its forms requires steady growth of the incomes of the bottom 40 percent. Yet, economic growth, a key driver of shared prosperity, may not be as buoyant as before the global financial crisis. Third, unequal progress in non-income dimensions of development requires addressing widespread inequality of opportunity, which transmits poverty across generations and erodes the pace and sustainability of progress for the bottom 40. To meet these challenges, three ingredients are core to the policy agenda: sustaining broad-based growth, investing in human development, and insuring the poor and vulnerable against emerging risks. -
Publication
Firm Recovery during COVID-19: Six Stylized Facts
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-10)Building on prior work that documented the impact of COVID-19 on firms in developing countries using the first wave of Business Pulse Surveys, this paper presents a new set of stylized facts on firm recovery, covering 65,000 observations in 38 countries. This paper suggests that: One, since the outset of the pandemic, some aspects of business performance such as sales show signs of partial recovery. Two, other aspects remain challenging, including persistently high uncertainty and financial fragility. Three, recovery is heterogeneous across firms and more sensitive to firm-level attributes such as size, sector, and initial productivity than to country-level differences in the severity of the initial shock. In particular, larger and more productive firms are recovering faster, with implications for competition policy and allocative efficiency. Four, the decline in jobs has been steeper during the initial shock than the expansion in employment during recovery, raising the risk of a "jobless" recovery pattern. Five, the diffusion of digital technology and product innovation accelerated during the pandemic but did so unevenly, further widening gaps between small and large firms. Six, businesses now have more access to policy support, but poorer countries continue to lag behind and appropriate targeting of firms remains a challenge. -
Publication
Starting Up Romania: Entrepreneurship Ecosystem Diagnostic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022)The report is organized in four chapters that together provide a comprehensive assessment of entrepreneurship and startup performance in Romania. Chapter one examines the context of entrepreneurship in Romania through a cross-country comparison that covers key outcomes and structural pillars of the ecosystem. The analysis exploits both firm-level data and cross-country indicators. Chapter two spotlights the potential of subnational entrepreneurship ecosystems, with a focus on tech startups and high-potential startups. This chapter identifies potential subnational ecosystems and sheds light on the characteristics of average tech startups in Romania, and their similarities to and differences from high-potential startups from Romania. It also includes a connectedness analysis, which helps us understand the relationships between entities in the ecosystem and the regional interdependencies. Chapter three examines the characteristics of public programs and private ecosystem enablers supporting entrepreneurship in Romania. Chapter four presents the policy recommendations stemming from the analysis within the report and juxtaposes them with policy priorities identified by ecosystem stakeholders. This report is complemented by the separate report "Scaling Up Romania: A Policymaker's Toolkit" that outlines stakeholder- and diagnostic-driven policy recommendations for Romania’s National Startup Ecosystem Strategy. See link below. -
Publication
Entrepreneurship Ecosystems and MSMEs in Kenya: Strengthening Businesses in the Aftermath of the Pandemic
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2022)This report presents a diagnostic of MSMEs and entrepreneurship ecosystems in Kenya. The report is organized in four chapters combining a comprehensive set of information assessing the entrepreneurship ecosystems and MSME performance pre- and post-COVID-19. The assessment of the performance of MSMEs and entrepreneurship as well as the diagnostic of the availability of structural factors to support the ecosystem pre-COVID-19 in Kenya are not only critical to inform policy makers on the challenges burdening entrepreneurs and how the COVID-19 shock has led to additional constraints, but also to highlight potential opportunities that may emerge through the crisis. Chapter 1 examines the context of entrepreneurship and MSMEs in Kenya before the COVID-19 shock. It is based on a conceptual framework that covers indicators of key outcomes and structural pillars of the entrepreneurship ecosystem. Chapter 2 examines the potential and key challenges of entrepreneurship ecosystems at the sub-national level in Kenya. It presents the regional landscape of MSMEs and entrepreneurship in the context of the Kenya’s Economic Blocs, a recent institutional arrangement aiming to facilitate the collaboration across counties through common actions to support economic prosperity. Chapter 3 analyzes the characteristics of and the resources available through public programs and intermediary organizations (IOs) supporting entrepreneurship and MSMEs in Kenya. Chapter 4 examines the impact of COVID-19 on businesses and provides policy recommendations based on the findings of this report. -
Publication
On the Impact of Demographic Change on Growth, Savings, and Poverty
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-08)Changing population age structures are shaping the trajectories of development in many countries, bringing opportunities and challenges. While aging has been a matter of concern for upper-middle and high-income economies, rapid population growth is set to continue in the poorest countries over the coming decades. At the same time, these countries will see sustained increases in the working-age shares of their population, and these shifts have the potential to boost growth and reduce poverty. This paper describes the main mechanisms through which demographic change may affect economic outcomes, and estimates the association between changes in the share of working-age population with per capita growth, savings, and poverty rate. An increase of one percentage point in the working-age population share is found to be associated with an increase in gross domestic product per capita growth by more than one percentage point, with similarly positive effects on savings and poverty reduction. -
Publication
Making the Most of Demographic Change in Southern Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-08)The countries of the Southern African Customs Union have relatively diverse demographic and economic starting points. These economies have the potential to realize demographic dividends and experience an acceleration in their income per capita growth and poverty reduction progress through forthcoming shifts in their age structures. Between 35 and 75 percent of poverty reduction in 2015-50 in Southern African Customs Union economies could be attributed to demographic shifts in a business-as-usual scenario of economic development, if employment rates are at least maintained. The magnitude of the demographic dividends could be greater if countries are able to achieve policy outcomes in parallel in the areas of education, savings-investment, and employment. Scenario analyses of these different policy outcomes interacting with the shifting age structures in different ways suggest quantitatively different economic impacts despite qualitatively similar policies. Improving educational attainment is found to be most important in Lesotho and Swaziland; mobilizing savings for higher investment can be most useful for Botswana; and improving employment rates, especially by closing gender gaps, can be most useful for South Africa and Namibia.