Person:
Chen, Shaohua

Poverty and Inequality Unit, Development Research Group, The World Bank

Fields of Specialization

Poverty measurement

Departments

Poverty and Inequality Unit, Development Research Group, The World Bank

Last updated January 31, 2023

Biography

Shaohua Chen is a Lead Statistician in the Development Research Group of the World Bank. She manages the Global Poverty database and all developing countries’ poverty, inequality estimations at the World Bank since 1991. Her research has focused on poverty and inequality measurement, and program/policy impacts evaluation. Before joining the World Bank, she was the lecturer of business school of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in China. She received her Master's Degree in Statistical Computing from American University.

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Publication Search Results

Now showing 1 - 10 of 26

Absolute Poverty Measures for the Developing World, 1981-2004

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-04) Chen, Shaohua ; Ravallion, Martin

The authors report new estimates of measures of absolute poverty for the developing world over 1981-2004. A clear trend decline in the percentage of people who are absolutely poor is evident, although with uneven progress across regions. They find more mixed success in reducing the total number of poor. Indeed, the developing world outside China has seen little or no sustained progress in reducing the number of poor, with rising poverty counts in some regions, notably Sub-Saharan Africa. There are encouraging signs of progress in reducing the incidence of poverty in all regions after 2000, although it is too early to say if this is a new trend.
New Evidence on the Urbanization of Global Poverty

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-04) Ravallion, Martin ; Chen, Shaohua ; Sangraula, Prem

The authors provide new evidence on the extent to which absolute poverty has urbanized in the developing world, and the role that population urbanization has played in overall poverty reduction. They find that one-quarter of the world's consumption poor live in urban areas and that the proportion has been rising over time. By fostering economic growth, urbanization helped reduce absolute poverty in the aggregate but did little for urban poverty. Over 1993-2002, the count of the "$1 a day" poor fell by 150 million in rural areas but rose by 50 million in urban areas. The poor have been urbanizing even more rapidly than the population as a whole. Looking forward, the recent pace of urbanization and current forecasts for urban population growth imply that a majority of the poor will still live in rural areas for many decades to come. There are marked regional differences: Latin America has the most urbanized poverty problem, East Asia has the least; there has been a "ruralization" of poverty in Eastern Europe and Central Asia; in marked contrast to other regions, Africa's urbanization process has not been associated with falling overall poverty.
Are There Lasting Impacts of Aid to Poor Areas? Evidence from Rural China

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-03) Chen, Shaohua ; Mu, Ren ; Ravallion, Martin

The paper revisits the site of a large, World Bank-financed, rural development program in China 10 years after it began and four years after disbursements ended. The program emphasized community participation in multi-sectoral interventions (including farming, animal husbandry, infrastructure and social services). Data were collected on 2,000 households in project and nonproject areas, spanning 10 years. A double-difference estimator of the program's impact (on top of pre-existing governmental programs) reveals sizeable short-term income gains that were mostly saved. Only modest gains to mean consumption emerged in the longer term-in rough accord with the gain to permanent income. Certain types of households gained more than others. The educated poor were under-covered by the community-based selection process-greatly reducing overall impact. The main results are robust to corrections for various sources of selection bias, including village targeting and interference due to spillover effects generated by the response of local governments to the external aid.
China is Poorer than we Thought, But No Less Successful in the Fight Against Poverty

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-05) Chen, Shaohua ; Ravallion, Martin

In 2005, China participated for the first time in the International Comparison Program (ICP), which collects primary data across countries on the prices for an internationally comparable list of goods and services. This paper examines the implications of the new Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) rate (derived by the ICP) for China's poverty rate (by international standards) and how it has changed over time. We provide estimates with and without adjustment for a likely sampling bias in the ICP data. Using an international poverty line of USD 1.25 at 2005 PPP, we find a substantially higher poverty rate for China than past estimates, with about 15% of the population living in consumption poverty, implying about 130 million more poor by this standard. The income poverty rate in 2005 is 10%, implying about 65 million more people living in poverty. However, the new ICP data suggest an even larger reduction in the number of poor since 1981.
Dollar a Day Revisited

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2008-05) Ravallion, Martin ; Chen, Shaohua ; Sangraula, Prem

The paper presents the first major update of the international "$1 a day" poverty line, first proposed in 1990 for measuring absolute poverty by the standards of the world's poorest countries. In a new data set of national poverty lines we find that a marked economic gradient only emerges when consumption per person is above about $2.00 a day at 2005 purchasing power parity. Below this, the average poverty line is $1.25, which we propose as the new international poverty line. Relative poverty appears to matter more to developing countries than has been thought. The authors' proposed schedule of relative poverty lines is bounded below by $1.25, and rises at a gradient of $1 in $3 when mean consumption is above $2.00 a day.
China's (Uneven) Progress Against Poverty

(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-09) Ravallion, Martin ; Chen, Shaohua

While the incidence of extreme poverty in China fell dramatically over 1980-2001, progress was uneven over time and across provinces. Rural areas accounted for the bulk of the gains to the poor, though migration to urban areas helped. The pattern of growth mattered. Rural economic growth was far more important to national poverty reduction than urban economic growth. Agriculture played a far more important role than the secondary or tertiary sources of gross domestic product (GDP). Rising inequality within the rural sector greatly slowed poverty reduction. Provinces starting with relatively high inequality saw slower progress against poverty, due both to lower growth and a lower growth elasticity of poverty reduction. Taxation of farmers and inflation hurt the poor. External trade had little short-term impact.
How Have the World's Poorest Fared Since the Early 1980s?

(World Bank, Washington, D.C., 2004-06) Chen, Shaohua ; Ravallion, Martin

The authors present new estimates of the extent of the developing world's progress against poverty. By the frugal $1 a day standard, they find that there were 1.1 billion poor in 2001-almost 400 million fewer than 20 years earlier. Over the same period, the number of poor declined by more than 400 million in China, though half of this decline was in the first few years of the 1980s. The number of poor outside China rose slightly over the period. A marked bunching up of people between $1 and $2 a day has also emerged. Sub-Saharan Africa has become the region with the highest incidence of extreme poverty and the greatest depth of poverty. If these trends continue, then the aggregate $1 a day poverty rate for 1990 will be halved by 2015, though only East and South Asia will reach this goal.
Benefit Incidence with Incentive Effects, Measurement Errors and Latent Heterogeneity

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-08) Ravallion, Martin ; Chen, Shaohua

Empirical studies of tax and benefit incidence routinely ignore behavioral responses and measurement errors. This paper offers an econometric method of estimating the mean benefit withdrawal rate (marginal tax rate) allowing for incentive effects, measurement errors, and correlated latent heterogeneity in incidence. Under the method's identifying assumptions, a feasible instrumental variables estimator corrects for incentive effects and measurement errors, and provides a bound for the true value when there is correlated incidence heterogeneity. A case study for a large cash transfer program in China indicates that past methods of assessing benefit incidence using either nominal official rates or raw tabulations from survey data are deceptive. The program entails a nominal 100 percent benefit withdrawal rate -- a poverty trap. However, the paper finds that the actual rate is much lower, and clearly too low in the light of the literature on optimal income taxation. The paper discusses likely reasons based on the qualitative observations.
Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2004-01) Chen, Shaohua ; Ravallion, Martin

Data from China's national rural and urban household surveys are used to measure and explain the welfare impacts of changes in goods and factor prices attributable to accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO). The price changes are estimated separately using a general equilibrium model to capture both direct and indirect effects of the initial tariff changes. The welfare impacts are first-order approximations based on a household model incorporating own-production activities calibrated to household-level data and imposing minimum aggregation. The results show negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate. However, diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions, associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources, with possible implications for compensatory policy responses.
Household Welfare Impacts of China's Accession to the World Trade Organization

(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2003-05) Chen, Shaohua ; Ravallion, Martin

The authors use China's national household surveys for rural and urban areas to measure and explain the welfare impacts of the changes in goods and factor prices attributed to WTO accession. Price changes are estimated separately using a general equilibrium model to capture both direct and indirect effects of the initial tariff changes. The welfare impacts are first-order approximations based on a household model incorporating own-production activities and are calibrated to the household-level data imposing minimum aggregation. The authors find negligible impacts on inequality and poverty in the aggregate. However, diverse impacts emerge across household types and regions associated with heterogeneity in consumption behavior and income sources, with possible implications for compensatory policy responses.