Person:
Bullock, Richard Geoffrey
Author Name Variants
Fields of Specialization
Railway economics,
Railway planning,
Railway finance
Degrees
Departments
M.A., Mathematics, Cambridge University
M.A., Operational Research, Brunel University
M.A., Operational Research, Brunel University
Externally Hosted Work
Contact Information
Last updated
January 31, 2023
Biography
Mr. Bullock has over 40 years of experience in the railway sector, covering costing and pricing, project analysis, railway restructuring and regulatory issues. He has worked on over 50 railways worldwide, in every continent except North America and has worked in China since 1987. Before becoming an independent consultant, Mr. Bullock was a Director of Travers Morgan Australia and, in addition to the World Bank, has worked on projects for several other international institutions. He has worked on seven high-speed rail projects in China with the World Bank, as well as five outside China
Publication Search Results
1 - 10 of 10
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Publication
Results of Railway Privatization in Africa
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2005-01)This review is designed to assist the development community and policy makers in other countries who may be contemplating railway privatization. The report is principally concerned with the results of privatization rather than the processes or detailed concession structures, which have varied from country to country depending on diverse local circumstances. This report is concerned with the results of the African concessions. The report contains three main sections: (i) A summary of the background to railway development in sub-Saharan Africa to the start of the 1990's, together with a list of the railway privatizations and concessions undertaken over the last 10 years and a brief description of the main concessionaires; (ii) A more detailed presentation of the thirteen concessions, particularly the three which have been operating the longest ; (iii) An assessment of the overall results of railway privatization/concessioning. -
Publication
The Financial Performance of Non-Urban Passenger Rail Services
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2007-09)The paper has three parts. It first summarizes the main factors that influence the costs and fare box cost recovery of rail passenger services, with illustrations from a range of different countries in which the Bank is involved in rail passenger operations. Second, it provides a generalized passenger service costing model, including indicative sets of input unit costs representing different levels of efficiency: this model is used for illustrative purposes in this paper but the structure can be readily applied by transport planners and policy-makers, with use of local parameters, in developing and transition countries. Third, it illustrates the cost drivers of services and the sensitivity of costs to different market and operational drivers. This report also addresses the sensitivity of cost to changes in key scenario assumptions. This shows that operating costs are minimized (but revenue not necessarily maximized) when operating speed is around 80 km/h. Above that speed, above-rail unit costs gradually increase as continuing reductions in time-related costs, principally rolling stock capital cost, are progressively offset by increased fuel consumption and equipment maintenance. Infrastructure maintenance costs also increase significantly with speed because of the need for higher quality track. -
Publication
Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China : Baseline Report for a Case Study of Yunfu in Guangdong Province
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-06-30)This paper contains an initial reconnaissance of the situation in Yunfu, prior to the NanGuang project construction. It provides a brief overview of the trajectory of economic development in Yunfu from an economy that was dominated by primary industries to that by secondary industries. The development of local transport infrastructure is reviewed, as is the more detailed structure of local industries, with special emphasis on dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. The experience of high speed rail development impact elsewhere was drawn upon to reflect on the possible regional economic outcomes that might emerge following the opening of the Nanning-Guangzhou high speed rail. The structure of and the approach to a before and after monitoring study is considered. The remainder of the paper is divided into six parts. Part two gives a brief overview of the economic development in Yunfu municipality since its establishment in 1994. Part three describes local transport links and infrastructure. Part four provides a description of the internal structure of local industries, with special emphasis on the dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. Part five discusses possible regional economic impacts associated with the forthcoming high-speed rail line and part six summarizes a proposal for the next steps. -
Publication
Regional Impacts of High Speed Rail in China : Spatial Proximity and Productivity in an Emerging Economy
(World Bank, Beijing, 2013-06-30)This paper contains an initial reconnaissance of the situation in Yunfu, prior to the NanGuang project construction. It provides a brief overview of the trajectory of economic development in Yunfu from an economy that was dominated by primary industries to that by secondary industries. The development of local transport infrastructure is reviewed, as is the more detailed structure of local industries, with special emphasis on dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. The experience of high speed rail development impact elsewhere was drawn upon to reflect on the possible regional economic outcomes that might emerge following the opening of the Nanning-Guangzhou high speed rail. The structure of and the approach to a before and after monitoring study is considered. The remainder of the paper is divided into six parts. Part two gives a brief overview of the economic development in Yunfu municipality since its establishment in 1994. Part three describes local transport links and infrastructure. Part four provides a description of the internal structure of local industries, with special emphasis on the dominant industrial sectors and the planned industrial parks. Part five discusses possible regional economic impacts associated with the forthcoming high-speed rail line and part six summarizes a proposal for the next steps. -
Publication
Customer-driven Rail Intermodal Logistics: Unlocking a New Source of Value for China
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-03)Rail intermodal logistics, the movement of containerized cargo from origin to destination where a portion of the journey takes place on rail, have gained significance in North America over the past 10 to 15 years based on cost and operational efficiency. In China, however, the story has thus far been different. Considering the length-of-haul and commodity characteristics of China s manufacturing sector, the country has a persistently low incidence of rail intermodal participation in domestic and international supply chains. We find that the binding constraints behind the low incidence of rail intermodal services in China are most likely to be found on the supply side, not the demand side of the equation. Specifically, the regulatory and institutional environment, which regulate freight tariffs and provides little or no flexibility for China Railway Corporation (CRC) to tailor services to customer needs, is at the root of this challenge. This note outlines the success of railways in North America in (a) tailoring rail intermodal service offerings based on customer needs and willingness to pay; and (b) collaborating with other logistics service providers so as to concentrate on their core (rail transportation) competency, while leaving other segments of the end-to-end intermodal supply chain to those most efficient in those segments. The current policy and economic environment facing CRC seems favorable to pursuing reforms towards adopting similar practices. -
Publication
Integrated Logistic Centers: Experience from North America and Options for China
(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-04)China s shift toward accelerated economic growth in central and western provinces and increasing levels of personal income and consumption are all consistent with the need for rail-enabled Integrated Logistics Centers (ILCs). Yet, while hundreds of logistics clusters have been developed in China over the past few years, modern, international standard rail- and multimodal-transport enabled ILCs are less common. Close, long-term collaboration between public sector authorities and private sector specialized firms, such as real estate developers, have proven effective in the development of North America s focused network of ILCs critical to facilitating transcontinental and other freight itineraries. This model can succeed in China as well. The ready availability of multimodal transport connectivity is the most critical component of any cluster of logistics activities. This note will argue that China could substantially benefit from developing a focused network of well-planned, economically justified, financially viable, and carefully implemented ILCs supported by rail intermodal operations. -
Publication
The Role of Rail in Decarbonizing Transport in Developing Countries
(Washington, DC : World Bank, 2022)Railways support green development. Governments in developing countries seek to provide transport infrastructure and services to enable inclusive economic development. Transport decarbonization is critical for mitigating climate change through near-term actions and long-term transitions. Railways have an important role in reducing transport emissions, while also supporting economic development and increased mobility. Structured around the avoid–shift–improve framework, this report provides a systematic review of potential contributions that railways can make to development and climate goals. -
Publication
High-Speed Rail, Regional Economics, and Urban Development in China
(World Bank, Beijing, 2013-01)Traditional economic evaluations of major transport infrastructure investments focus on the direct costs and benefits arising from travel, including user time savings, operator cost savings, and reductions in externalities including air pollution, noise, and accidents. There is an emerging consensus that major transport investments may have significant impacts that are not well captured by this type of conventional cost-benefit analysis. In China, the World Bank transport team has supported both econometric studies and on-the-ground surveys that begin to identify and quantify these impacts in the context of China's emerging High Speed Rail (HSR) program. Based on this and other research, the Bank team has begun to pilot a methodology to evaluate wider economic development benefits for several HSR projects, and has found them to be significant - of the same order as, but additional to the direct transport benefits that are traditionally measured. Crucially, these benefits of larger and better connected markets accrue to businesses and individuals even when they themselves do not travel. This paper highlights this research and methodology and the policy implications related to maximizing these benefits in practice. -
Publication
High-Speed Railways in China: A Look at Traffic
(World Bank, Beijing, 2014-12)While new transport needs are emerging and existing transport needs are growing, the network of China Railway is one of the most densely used in the world. Between 2000 and 2013, China Railways experienced robust rail traffic growth. The combination of rapidly growing traffic and of high existing traffic density called for major new investments in order for railways to continue playing a substantial role in the Chinese economy. Understanding and addressing passenger needs will be critical to achieve the full impact of the HSR network. HSR remains a major investment that requires high traffic density to be justified economically and financially. It requires careful attention to the overall door-to-door trip experience for travelers. This includes dealing with aspects that sometimes extend beyond the remit of railways, for example by improving the access to and from the station, and, in particular, reducing the current waiting time for taxis at stations or ensuring good frequency for public transport services. It also includes optimizing train frequencies and city pairing based on emerging trip patterns and user surveys, introduction flexible ticket prices reflecting peak/off-peak periods, and introducing convenient e-ticketing services. By focusing on these aspects, and on the efficient and effective operation of the HSR network, HSR in China can be expected to continue to experience substantial growth for many years to come. -
Publication
China's High-Speed Rail Development
(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2019-06-06)Over the past decade, China has built 25,000 km of dedicated high-speed railway—more than the rest of the world combined. What can we learn from this remarkable experience? China’s High-Speed Rail Development examines the Chinese experience to draw lessons for countries considering investing in high-speed rail. The report scrutinizes the planning and delivery mechanisms that enabled the rapid construction of the high-speed rail system. It highlights the role of long-term planning, consistent plan execution, and a joint venture structure that ensures active participation of provincial and local governments in project planning and financing. Traffic on China’s high-speed trains has grown to 1.7 billion passengers a year. The study examines the characteristics of the markets for which high-speed rail is competitive in China. It discusses the pricing and service design considerations that go into making high-speed rail services competitive with other modes and factors such as good urban connectivity that make the service attractive to customers. One of the most remarkable aspects of the Chinese experience is the rapid pace of high-quality construction. The report looks at the role of strong capacity development within and cooperation among China Railway Corporation, rail manufacturers, universities, research institutions, laboratories, and engineering centers that allowed for rapid technological advancement and localization of technology. It describes the project delivery structures and incentives for delivering quality and timely results. Finally, the report analyzes the financial and economic sustainability of the investment in high-speed rail. It finds that a developing country can price high-speed rail services affordably and still achieve financial viability, but this requires very high passenger density. Economic viability similarly depends on high passenger density.