Poverty and Equity Global Practice, The World Bank
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Fields of Specialization
Poverty Measurement, Income Distribution
Poverty and Equity Global Practice, The World Bank
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Last updated August 1, 2023
Aziz Atamanov is a Senior Economist in the Poverty and Equity Global Practice of the World Bank. He has been working on poverty issues, measurement, and distributional analysis in many countries including Lebanon, Jordan, Yemen, West Bank and Gaza, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Turkey. He also co-leads the Middle East and North African Team for Statistical Development. He holds Ph.D. Degree in Development Economics from Maastricht University.
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Now showing 1 - 10 of 24
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2013-04) Atamanov, AzizKyrgyz Republic is an interesting case to study welfare disparities because of pronounced and long existed differences across various regions, rural, and urban areas of the country in spite of economic growth and overall poverty reduction (World Bank 2011). For instance urban poverty stood at 31 percent versus 40 percent in rural areas in 2011 (national statistical committee). The welfare disparities are particularly striking between the growing capital Bishkek and the other regions. Thus, for example, the poverty in the Naryn region is 50 percent versus 18 percent in the capital. The main goal of this paper is to analyze regional disparities in the Kyrgyz Republic by quantifying and separating the gap in welfare disparities in 2011 into two parts: the first part associated with observable characteristics of households and the second part associated with differences in marginal returns to these characteristics (potentially related to geographic factors). Welfare disparities are analyzed between and within the regions. In addition, the role of returns and characteristics in explaining welfare disparities both at the mean and across the distribution using oaxaca-blinder decomposition and its extensions is quantified. The proposed research is an important source of empirical evidence testing the propositions from the new economic geography. This is also the first empirical paper aimed at explaining regional welfare disparities in a country from the Central Asian region where the urban rural gap is an important component of inequality. The paper is structured as follows: it starts from the background information describing welfare disparities, economic growth and structural differences across different areas. The third section briefly discusses the methodology. The results of the decomposition are presented and discussed in the fourth section. The fifth section concludes.
Pathways to the Middle Class in Turkey : How Have Reducing Poverty and Boosting Shared Prosperity Helped?(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-04) Azevedo, Joao Pedro ; Atamanov, AzizTurkey's poverty reduction performance in the 2000s has been remarkably consistent. Extreme and moderate poverty have fallen considerably since 2003. Between 2002 and 2011, extreme poverty fell from 13 percent to 5 percent, while moderate poverty halved from 44 percent to 22 percent (respectively, defined using the World Bank's Europe and Central Asia regional poverty lines of 2.5 and 5 USD/PPP). Most of this poverty reduction (89 percent) has been driven by growth, a performance consistent with most countries in Europe and Central Asia. This is substantially different form the recent performance of other regions, such as Latin America, where redistribution contributed to poverty reduction almost four times more than in Turkey. Turkey has also achieved sustained consumption growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population, even during the years of the world recession. Turkey's performance in poverty reduction and increased shared prosperity has been complemented by the systematic expansion of the middle class by 20 percentage points. This paper analyzes the main drivers of poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and changes in inequality in Turkey from 2002 to 2011. The analysis shows that labor markets, demographics, pensions, and social assistance have played a critical role in this process. It further explores some of the mechanisms that have facilitated these changes.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2014-06) Azevedo, Joao Pedro ; Atamanov, Aziz ; Rajabov, AlisherTajikistan was one of the fastest growing countries in the Europe and Central Asia region during the last decade. The economic growth was widely shared by the population and as a result poverty (measured by the national poverty line) declined from 73 percent in 2003 to 47 percent in 2009 accompanied by falling inequality. Consumption growth of the bottom 40 percent of the population -- a measure of shared prosperity proposed by the World Bank- was positive, pointing out that the growth was shared among the less well off. This work presents a diagnostic of shared prosperity and poverty reduction in Tajikistan during 2003-2009. The paper also focuses on quantifying the main drivers of poverty reduction, shared prosperity, and intra-generational mobility (class transitions). Some of the mechanisms of poverty reduction are explored in detail. Finally, main impediments to inter-generational mobility are discussed.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-06) Atamanov, Aziz ; Jellema, Jon ; Serajuddin, UmarFacing a fiscal crisis, Jordan initiated substantial petroleum subsidy reforms in 2012. The government has also long contemplated how to cut electricity subsidies, which surpass the fiscal burdens imposed by the petroleum subsidies. This paper estimates the impacts of the 2012 petroleum subsidies reform on household welfare and government revenues. It also simulates the distributional and fiscal impacts from ending subsidies in the electricity sector, where the pricing structure is more complex than petroleum prices. The paper looks at the direct and indirect impacts of reform. Moreover, the paper discusses the political economy considerations of reform. While the full removal of petroleum subsidies would have increased poverty, the compensatory cash transfer program the government instituted is estimated to have fully offset the negative impact for the poorer population. The impact of reforms in the electricity sector will depend significantly on the implementation method chosen. A flat increase of tariffs toward cost recovery will put a huge burden on the poorest households. However, a progressive increase in tariffs will generate substantial savings for the government, even with compensatory mechanisms to mitigate the strong negative impact on the vulnerable population. The immediate compensation of the losers from reform appears to be a crucial factor in the successful implementation of reforms in Jordan.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2021-06-28) Atamanov, Aziz ; Beltramo, Theresa ; Reese, Benjamin Christopher ; Rios Rivera, Laura Abril ; Waita, PeterThe URHFPS tracks the socioeconomic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on refugees. The World Bank (WB) in collaboration with the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS) and the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (UNHCR) launched and conducted the URHFPS. The URHFPS tracked the impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic between October 2020 and March 2021. This brief discusses key selected results while providing policy options. Where possible and appropriate, findings are compared to Ugandans by using the national High-Frequency Phone Survey (UHFPS) conducted by UBOS with the support from the World Bank since June 2020.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2015-12-08) Yaacoub, Najwa ; Daher, Mayssaa ; Jolliffe, Dean ; Atamanov, AzizThis brief is based on analysis of the 2011-12 household budget survey (HBS) implemented by Central Administration for Statistics (CAS) with technical assistance from the World Bank. The survey was conducted during the period of September 2011 to November 2012, and was stratified across nine regions. The sample was designed to cover 4,805 households, but due to high non-response, it only includes 2,476 participating households. Poverty numbers presented in this note are not comparable with poverty estimates for other years due to differences in the instruments, fieldwork implementation and to some extent sample design; and also due to differences in the methodology for constructing welfare aggregate and the poverty line. All regional estimates in this report should be viewed with caution given concerns about significant levels of nonresponse and relatively small sample sizes within regions. CAS and the World Bank are working together to improve the quality of future surveys.
Publication(World Bank, Washington, DC, 2016-03) Atamanov, Aziz ; Wieser, Christina ; Uematsu, Hiroki ; Yoshida, Nobuo ; Nguyen, Minh Cong ; Wagner De Azevedo, Joao Pedro ; Dewina, RenoThis paper is the first to systematically test the robustness of shared prosperity estimates to different methodological choices using a sample of countries from all regions in the world. The tests that are conducted include grouped versus microdata, nominal welfare aggregate versus adjustment for spatial price variation, and different treatment of income with negative and zero values. The empirical results reveal an only minimal impact of the proposed tests on shared prosperity estimates. Nevertheless, there are important caveats. First, spatial adjustment can change the ranking of households, affecting the distribution of the population in the bottom 40 percent. Second, the negligible impact of spatial deflation holds only if price adjustments are carried out consistently over time. Finally, the treatment of negative and zero income numbers can potentially lead to substantial differences in shared prosperity, depending on the magnitude of negative income and the share of households with negative and zero numbers across years.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-04-18) Atamanov, Aziz ; Mukiza, Chris Ndatira ; Ssennono, Vincent FredRobust poverty reduction in Uganda was disrupted by episodes of shocks during recent years. This paper estimates vulnerability to poverty in Uganda and explores the sources and main correlates of vulnerability using the most recent Uganda National Household Survey 2019/20. The analysis reveals that about 50 percent of population in Uganda is vulnerable to poverty. Vulnerability rates are much higher than poverty in rural areas. Urban vulnerability is predominantly risk induced (high volatility of consumption) and mostly associated with idiosyncratic rather than covariate shocks. Rural vulnerability is equally split between risk-induced and poverty-induced vulnerability (permanently low consumption). Although in absolute terms vulnerability due to covariate shocks is still lower than vulnerability due to idiosyncratic shocks, in relative terms covariate shocks are more important in rural areas. Education is found to be one of the key variables related to lower vulnerability to poverty.
Publication(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-02-21) Jolliffe, Dean Mitchell ; Mahler, Daniel Gerszon ; Lakner, Christoph ; Atamanov, Aziz ; Tetteh Baah, Samuel KofiPurchasing power parity exchange rates (PPPs) are used to estimate the international poverty line (IPL) in a common currency and account for relative price differences across countries when measuring global poverty. This paper assesses the impact of the 2017 PPPs on the nominal value of the IPL and global poverty. The analysis indicates that updating the $1.90 IPL in 2011 PPP dollars to 2017 PPP dollars results in an IPL of approximately $2.15—a finding that is robust to various methods and assumptions. Based on an updated IPL of $2.15, the global extreme poverty rate in 2017 falls from the previously estimated 9.3 to 9.1 percent, reducing the count of people who are poor by 15 million. This is a modest change compared with previous updates of PPP data. The paper also assesses the methodological stability between the 2011 and 2017 PPPs, scrutinizes large changes at the country level, and analyzes higher poverty lines with the 2017 PPPs.
Monitoring Impacts of COVID-19 and Other Shocks: Uganda High Frequency Phone Survey (UHFPS), Round 9, August 2022(Washington, DC: World Bank, 2022-08) Atamanov, Aziz ; Cochinard, Frédéric ; Ilukor, John ; Kemigisha, Audrey ; Kilic, Talip ; Mupere, Andrew ; Ponzini, GiuliaIn June 2020, the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, with the support from the World Bank, has launched the High-Frequency Phone Survey on COVID-19 to track the impacts of the pandemic on a monthly basis for a period of 12 months. In June 2022, the scope of the survey was expanded to monitor economic sentiments and the socioeconomic impact of other shocks such as the Russia-Ukraine war and extreme weather events. The survey aimed to recontact the entire sample of households that had been interviewed during the Uganda National Panel Survey 2019/20 round and that had phone numbers for at least one household member or a reference individual. This report presents the findings from the ninth round of the survey that was conducted between August 5th and August 29th, 2022.